1 00:00:00,720 --> 00:00:03,720 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 2 00:00:03,800 --> 00:00:06,320 Speaker 1: Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the 3 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:11,160 Speaker 1: latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics, 4 00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:14,280 Speaker 1: all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors. 5 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:16,439 Speaker 1: And of course Carol that's part of a team of 6 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:19,959 Speaker 1: twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts and more than a 7 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:22,959 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg 8 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:26,079 Speaker 1: Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You 9 00:00:26,079 --> 00:00:28,280 Speaker 1: can also listen to our radio show at two pm 10 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:31,160 Speaker 1: Eastern on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on 11 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:36,839 Speaker 1: YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. Investors. They are perhaps 12 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 1: rightly worried about this spike that we're seeing across the 13 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:45,280 Speaker 1: country in coronavirus cases, especially in the sun Belts. This 14 00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 1: is not a disease. We know that summer is going 15 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:51,360 Speaker 1: to just sort of take away from us. Uh, the 16 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:54,800 Speaker 1: numbers are scary. John Tazzi is healthcare reporter for Bloomberg. 17 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 1: He joins us on the phone from Queens And you know, John, 18 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:00,640 Speaker 1: I grew up in Houston, and so I look at 19 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:03,280 Speaker 1: what's going on in that city. I look at Texas 20 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:07,600 Speaker 1: and it's really troubling and a little bit scary. Help 21 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:12,959 Speaker 1: us understand where we are because two months after, almost 22 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:15,399 Speaker 1: three months after we were facing this in New York City, 23 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 1: we're back to counting beds again. Yeah, I mean, I 24 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:23,119 Speaker 1: think it's a really concerning situation, um, as you said, 25 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:25,320 Speaker 1: and you know, not just in Texas, but a number 26 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:32,600 Speaker 1: of states um Arizona, California have recently set records for 27 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:36,559 Speaker 1: new cases um and you know, we we are seeing 28 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 1: a rise in hospitalizations as well. So you know, sometimes 29 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 1: new cases are just an indication of more testing. But 30 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 1: I think there are an increasing number of positive tests, uh, 31 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 1: and an increasing number of hospitalizations. And you know, the 32 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 1: concern I think everywhere is to avoid getting to a 33 00:01:57,120 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 1: point where hospital systems are, uh, you know, are overwhelmed 34 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 1: that they have you know, not that they don't have 35 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 1: enough debts to treat the patients they have coming in right, 36 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 1: so much so that as you you know, put in 37 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 1: your story that late yesterday the Texas Children's Hospital System 38 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 1: in Houston began accepting adult COVID nineteen patients because of 39 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 1: a surging demand. I do wonder John and your reporting. 40 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 1: Have those states that are now dealing with surges and 41 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 1: cases and and increasing hospitalization, have they learned anything? Are 42 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 1: they better prepared than we were potentially here on the 43 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:34,079 Speaker 1: East Coast, you know, where it just kind of I 44 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:37,080 Speaker 1: think safe to say no one expected it, you know, 45 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 1: to to shoot up as much as it did, and 46 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:41,239 Speaker 1: I think a lot of people were caught uh not, 47 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:44,200 Speaker 1: you know, unprepared. So I just wonder our hospital systems 48 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 1: across the country better prepared now. UM. I think there 49 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:50,440 Speaker 1: are a lot of valuables in play. I think in 50 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 1: some ways, yes, um, you know, everybody has now had 51 00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:57,119 Speaker 1: uh some time to sort of see this coming and 52 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:02,320 Speaker 1: you know, to begin uh stockpileing uh personal protective equipment, 53 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 1: UM you know in medicines, UM, you know, and to 54 00:03:06,440 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 1: kind of really look carefully at their plans around how 55 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:13,520 Speaker 1: they are going to create surge capacity uh if they 56 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:16,640 Speaker 1: need to, um you know. But there are some other 57 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 1: um factors that uh, you know pulling the other direction. 58 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 1: In New York in uh in March and early April, 59 00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 1: basically everything stopped. People were not getting uh medical care 60 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 1: for you know, non emergent issues other than COVID. A 61 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 1: lot of schedules. Care was just canceled for weeks um 62 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 1: in order to give the hospital's capacity to uh, you know, 63 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 1: to treat the COVID surge. Um. In most of the country, 64 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 1: elective surgeries are have resumed and hospitals are treating patients 65 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 1: you know who who couldn't put up care indefinitely for 66 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:59,320 Speaker 1: you know, really serious issues in some cases, so you know, 67 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 1: they're balanced thing that as well, along with you know, 68 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 1: the kind of rising number of um of coronavirus cases, 69 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 1: so being a little bit prochial here. How much do 70 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 1: we need to worry in the Tri state area, which 71 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:19,599 Speaker 1: is starting to get back to work, where we it 72 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 1: feels like, have been assured along the way that New 73 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 1: York and and states surrounding would be ready if there 74 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:31,200 Speaker 1: was a second wave. What have we learned? What do 75 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:34,440 Speaker 1: we need to be worried about, especially because of what 76 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 1: happened uh here before? Um. Well, I think that what 77 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:44,080 Speaker 1: the epidemnologists will tell you is that the potential for 78 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 1: more spread of the virus exists everywhere, right because most 79 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:51,159 Speaker 1: of the population is still susceptible. So even though you 80 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:53,840 Speaker 1: know in New York that the number of people testing 81 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 1: positive is very low, now and it feels much safer 82 00:04:57,400 --> 00:05:00,920 Speaker 1: than it did, certainly a couple of months go. Um, 83 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:03,000 Speaker 1: you know, there's nothing to say that, you know, we 84 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:05,799 Speaker 1: won't be in a similar situation to what we're seeing 85 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 1: in in Texas and Arizona again at some point down 86 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:12,720 Speaker 1: the line. And I think, you know, hospital systems everywhere 87 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 1: are you know, considering, um, you know what they have 88 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 1: to do to prepare for for uh, that kind of situation. 89 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 1: And you know, one of the messages I think we're 90 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:27,800 Speaker 1: hearing from Health US victuals no, no, you know what 91 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 1: I was just gonna say, just to wrap up, is 92 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:31,719 Speaker 1: I love the way you wrap up your story. And 93 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:35,839 Speaker 1: there's a quote I believe from one physician who talks 94 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 1: about that even if the health system is as prepared 95 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:39,479 Speaker 1: as we can be, if we see the degree of 96 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 1: COVID cases and hospitalizations and it keeps growing exponentially, Um, 97 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:45,760 Speaker 1: this doctor says, I don't know if even the best 98 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 1: preparation of the world would be enough. And it just 99 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 1: is once again, Um, you know, Jason, a repeat of 100 00:05:52,040 --> 00:05:53,880 Speaker 1: you know you can prepare and prepare about when those 101 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 1: numbers go off the chart, it's really tough to keep up. 102 00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 1: And that's potentially what we could see again. Um, John, 103 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 1: thank you so much, really appreciate the story. And you're reporting. 104 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:04,600 Speaker 1: John Tazzi, healthcare reporter at Bloomberg News, joining us on 105 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:07,600 Speaker 1: the phone in Queens, New York. And Jason, listen, you 106 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 1: know here we are once again check out most red 107 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:11,839 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg terminal there are. You know, for a 108 00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:15,600 Speaker 1: while the virus updates was trending much lower in terms 109 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 1: of what everybody was reading on the terminal. It's back 110 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:20,159 Speaker 1: up again. We've been here before. We've seen this movie 111 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 1: and and I think we didn't like it the first time, 112 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:24,680 Speaker 1: and we like it even less this time. So we're 113 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:26,720 Speaker 1: gonna keep a close eye on this for sure. Eager 114 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:29,039 Speaker 1: to get some time later with the dean of the 115 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:33,560 Speaker 1: Stanford Medical School and get his perspective on what they're 116 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 1: seeing from a medical perspective. We have leaned heavily on 117 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:40,719 Speaker 1: doctors and deans like him to give us a real 118 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 1: reality check in terms of preparation, but also, you know, 119 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:47,359 Speaker 1: some prescriptive advice on what should we what we should 120 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:49,039 Speaker 1: be thinking about when it comes to work in life 121 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:50,920 Speaker 1: and all of it. I have advice for you, Jason, 122 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 1: wear a mask, yeah, and social distancing. Yeah, I'm just 123 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:57,440 Speaker 1: going to put it out there. Sorry, Sorry for the sarcasm. 124 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:01,599 Speaker 1: Large family grew up on sarcasm. Alright, it's not even 125 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:04,719 Speaker 1: sure it's sarcastic at this point, it's just direct. You're 126 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:08,560 Speaker 1: absolutely right. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser 127 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 1: and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Well, today was day 128 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:18,040 Speaker 1: three of Bloomberg Global Amazing event wrapping it up actually 129 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 1: right now, I believe they're wrapping it up here in 130 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:22,400 Speaker 1: the US. So it went around the world. It was 131 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 1: in Asia, Middle East, Europe, and the United States obviously, 132 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:29,640 Speaker 1: and during the European portion. This morning I got to 133 00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 1: catch up with Bruce Flat. You've met him. We've spent 134 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:34,920 Speaker 1: some time with him out in l a and elsewhere. 135 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 1: He's based in New York. He was in London. He's 136 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:40,440 Speaker 1: got a global portfolio. They are a massive real estate investment, 137 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 1: massive real estate, infrastructure, renewables. We talked about all of it. 138 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 1: Check out a portion of this conversation. I would just 139 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 1: say that, you know, leave aside the health um impact 140 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 1: of everything. Um, the only thing constant in life is changed. 141 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 1: And uh, we've witnessed from all across the world, the 142 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:07,920 Speaker 1: closing down of offices and the opening up of offices, 143 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:11,520 Speaker 1: and we're we're virtually opened up all of our offices 144 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:17,200 Speaker 1: globally and we're back up at some office in London 145 00:08:17,200 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 1: here we're probably New York were thirty um and you know, 146 00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 1: so the numbers have been have been going back up 147 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:28,360 Speaker 1: and it's taken us three months. It's been stressful for 148 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 1: a lot of people. But um, you know the bottom line, 149 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:36,440 Speaker 1: this will pass, and this is the crisis of the day. 150 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 1: But we'll look back at it, um and some small 151 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:42,240 Speaker 1: things are going to change. Bought a lot of going 152 00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:44,400 Speaker 1: back to where they were, and we'll have another crisis 153 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 1: in the future. I'm sure, um that will be just 154 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:48,560 Speaker 1: as bad as this one. When you're in the middle 155 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 1: of it. So what are those small things that have changed? 156 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:56,080 Speaker 1: Because you have a window literally in figuratively into how 157 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:58,679 Speaker 1: we work. We spent so much of our time at 158 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:01,720 Speaker 1: the office, we spent shopping, you also have a window 159 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 1: into that. What are the things that you see that 160 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:08,439 Speaker 1: will change in the short to mid term that we 161 00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:14,439 Speaker 1: should be thinking about. Yes, so for offices, once we 162 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 1: shut down office buildings around the world and that people 163 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:20,440 Speaker 1: went home, we started thinking this three months ago. We 164 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:22,960 Speaker 1: started thinking about what is it that we need to 165 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 1: do get those offices back open, and that has included 166 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 1: all of the things that you have seen if you're 167 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:32,719 Speaker 1: in an office today or you will see when you 168 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:36,880 Speaker 1: shortly go back, which is there's more distancing, elevators are 169 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:42,600 Speaker 1: have spacing out, there's more cleaning. Our air is better 170 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:45,880 Speaker 1: than what you're breathing in your house because we are 171 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: um taking particles out of the air that we never 172 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,240 Speaker 1: took out before. So all of those things are happening 173 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 1: in office buildings today and they are going to be 174 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 1: some of the safest places in the world to be 175 00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 1: in the future. UM In In in retail, there's no doubt. 176 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:01,320 Speaker 1: There was this trend that was going on, and the 177 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 1: trend was online and good retail. We're moving together and 178 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:11,719 Speaker 1: retailers were using them together as one UM space to 179 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 1: deliver goods to customers, and that's going to be accelerated. 180 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 1: There's no doubt. Uh. With curbside pick up probably increasing 181 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:26,040 Speaker 1: and other things happening, the trends that we're happening are 182 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:30,559 Speaker 1: going to continue to UM increase, some of them exponentially 183 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 1: as you come out of this. And it's safe to say, 184 00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:37,080 Speaker 1: and I know that this is your business, but you're 185 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 1: still long office as a way of working. You've talked 186 00:10:43,080 --> 00:10:45,920 Speaker 1: several times over the past few weeks about the power 187 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:48,439 Speaker 1: of people being together and those sorts of things. I 188 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:51,560 Speaker 1: think we're seeing that manifesting even in our social lives. 189 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 1: Help me understand that a little bit. So here's what 190 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 1: I would say. Our our view is that office space. 191 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:04,880 Speaker 1: After talking to virtually every company that we lease space 192 00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:08,840 Speaker 1: two um that they're bringing their people back. The only 193 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:12,680 Speaker 1: the only reason some are saying we're actually not bringing 194 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 1: back everyone right now is they don't have they don't 195 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:18,640 Speaker 1: have enough space to be able to have social distancing. 196 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:21,839 Speaker 1: While that's important to bring everyone back, So they may 197 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:26,240 Speaker 1: be bringing back of the people because of that, but 198 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:28,520 Speaker 1: eventually they're going to bring them all back. And I 199 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:30,920 Speaker 1: guess the point I would make, and I think this 200 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 1: is in our company, but it's in other companies we 201 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 1: talked to. The office is about the social interaction of 202 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:41,319 Speaker 1: people that creates a culture in a business. The spontaneity 203 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 1: and the collaboration that comes from an office is incredibly 204 00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:48,520 Speaker 1: important to a business, and you can't create that by 205 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 1: video conference. Uh, you can maintain it for a while, 206 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:53,280 Speaker 1: and that's what we've all done for a little while. 207 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:56,440 Speaker 1: But you really can't do that over the longer term. 208 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:59,200 Speaker 1: So offices are going to be incredibly important as they 209 00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 1: were before, and in fact today, um, Jason, we're actually 210 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:07,760 Speaker 1: releasing greater amounts of space to people than they had 211 00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:09,839 Speaker 1: before because they want to accommodate all our people and 212 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:13,040 Speaker 1: get them back quickly and uh, and so they're increasing 213 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:18,439 Speaker 1: their footprints versus getting taking less. That's fascinating. But you 214 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:21,800 Speaker 1: can go either way, right Jason. People can either you know, 215 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:24,440 Speaker 1: reduce their footprint and either have people out in the 216 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:27,240 Speaker 1: suburbs or working from home, or they can increase their 217 00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:30,840 Speaker 1: footprint in the big cities to give everybody more space 218 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 1: so that they feel comfortable. So that's and I listen, 219 00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:36,839 Speaker 1: I've heard the death of major cities. How many times? 220 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:38,719 Speaker 1: How many times have we heard it. I don't think 221 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 1: that's going to happen. I just think we're gonna have 222 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:42,200 Speaker 1: to figure out new ways. I think cities are going 223 00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:43,839 Speaker 1: to change. I think you're going to have you know, 224 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 1: I was talking to some people on the heels of 225 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:48,760 Speaker 1: this conversation, you know, because lots of people wanted to 226 00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 1: talk about what Bruce had to say, and you know, 227 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:55,199 Speaker 1: it's interesting. I think we're going to be living in 228 00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:58,000 Speaker 1: a hybrid world. Um. You know, I just think about 229 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:00,480 Speaker 1: my experience this week alone, you know where it's like 230 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:02,560 Speaker 1: I spent a couple days in the office here I am, 231 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 1: I'm doing the show, you know, with you. I did 232 00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:08,520 Speaker 1: the show with you yesterday in a totally different location. Um. 233 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:12,360 Speaker 1: You know. Obviously, different people's jobs require different things at 234 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:16,560 Speaker 1: different times, and you know, I just I do think 235 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:18,800 Speaker 1: though the structure of cities could change. You know, one 236 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:20,800 Speaker 1: of the things we talked about later on in the conversation, 237 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 1: prompted by an audience question, was does the architecture and 238 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:27,640 Speaker 1: design of cities change? And this is something you've talked about, 239 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:31,360 Speaker 1: which is do we move to a place where actually 240 00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 1: we want a little more space, so we need more 241 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 1: walkable spaces, we need more space for outdoor dining, and 242 00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:39,720 Speaker 1: so does that change the way cities look and feel? 243 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:42,480 Speaker 1: I think it's possible. It's so funny. For the first 244 00:13:42,520 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 1: time I went into our local supermarket just recently, which 245 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 1: has been like it was kind of a big thing 246 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 1: for me because we've just stayed away and it was 247 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:51,760 Speaker 1: I gotta say it was a clean place to begin with. 248 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 1: It was cleaner, it was really organized, there was more space, 249 00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:57,400 Speaker 1: like the aisles were open and there were you could 250 00:13:57,400 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 1: only walk one way down, And I have to say, 251 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:02,920 Speaker 1: to some extent, maybe we need to rethink some of 252 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:06,400 Speaker 1: the way things are built and on a grander scale cities. 253 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 1: I gotta say the city has gotten crowded. There's a 254 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:11,240 Speaker 1: lot more cars because of Uber and Lift, And I'm 255 00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:12,920 Speaker 1: not saying those need to go away, because I think 256 00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:16,080 Speaker 1: they have provided great services. But I think we need 257 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 1: to think about it's a walking city, and it's become 258 00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:22,480 Speaker 1: much more difficult to do that. So let's figure that out. Yeah, 259 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 1: I think in order to do that, though, you've got 260 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 1: to figure out public transportation. And I've yet to take 261 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:31,920 Speaker 1: public transportation, so I can't judge it um fully. But 262 00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:34,880 Speaker 1: the reality is is that that has to be clean. 263 00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:36,880 Speaker 1: I mean it has to be clean beyond clean. And 264 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:38,960 Speaker 1: by all accounts, the MTA has done a great job. 265 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 1: But the thing we have to worry about is large 266 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:44,760 Speaker 1: groups of people, right listen, and it's needed to be 267 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:47,680 Speaker 1: cleaner than what it's been. Okay, I'm just gonna put 268 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:49,320 Speaker 1: that out and I know, it's really tough when you 269 00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:51,320 Speaker 1: think about my husband. I were talking about the numbers 270 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:53,880 Speaker 1: that ride it on a daily basis. When everything is normal, 271 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 1: it's unbelievable. But it can be better, and I think 272 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 1: we need to figure that out. So um fascinating to 273 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 1: hear his conversation. And I think stay tuned everyone in 274 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:07,680 Speaker 1: terms of how things play out. But cities I still love. 275 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:11,520 Speaker 1: They love it well. You and Bruce flat your long cities, 276 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:14,920 Speaker 1: your long offices. So we'll see where that goes. Check 277 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:18,920 Speaker 1: that whole interview out on Bloomberg Live dot com. This 278 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:22,960 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Jason Kelly 279 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. In today's Bloomberg Business Week, Economics, we 280 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 1: want to look at the interesting and complicated and often 281 00:15:29,520 --> 00:15:33,600 Speaker 1: problematic relationship between the FED and acid bubbles. Great voice 282 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 1: to have to talk about that. He put out some research. 283 00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:39,800 Speaker 1: Joe Kalish is back with us. He is chief Global 284 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 1: macro Strategist at ned Davis Research, and he joins us 285 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 1: on the phone from Sarasota, Florida. Joe, it is so 286 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,000 Speaker 1: good to have you back with us. How are you. 287 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:51,800 Speaker 1: I'm doing well, Carol, Thanks for having me back. Well, 288 00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:53,680 Speaker 1: it's great to have you back. And you know, it's 289 00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:56,600 Speaker 1: interesting we've heard from the FED a lot lately. J 290 00:15:56,760 --> 00:16:00,960 Speaker 1: Powell a lot, and certainly various FED governors you dig into. 291 00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:03,840 Speaker 1: First of all, kudos and thank you because you give 292 00:16:03,880 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 1: props to our own Mike McKee here at Bloomberg News. 293 00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:09,000 Speaker 1: And the question that he asked J. Powell at the 294 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:11,880 Speaker 1: last press conference, why don't we kick off there? What? 295 00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:15,720 Speaker 1: What kind of intrigued you about that question? I thought 296 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:23,000 Speaker 1: Michael really zeroed in on some really critical questions that 297 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:25,920 Speaker 1: the said is going to need to grapple with I 298 00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:29,920 Speaker 1: think longer term, and what we as investors need to 299 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:33,840 Speaker 1: grapple with and policymakers need need to deal with it, 300 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 1: and and and essentially, you know, Michael asked to two things. One, 301 00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:43,040 Speaker 1: uh was on the question of acid bubbles and whether 302 00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:47,960 Speaker 1: the FITS policies were helping to UM promote that. And 303 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:52,800 Speaker 1: the second one was as a consequences would have said 304 00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:56,200 Speaker 1: therefore contributing to wealth inequality. There are a lot of 305 00:16:56,320 --> 00:17:01,080 Speaker 1: questions at the press conference about income inequality, but Michael 306 00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:04,399 Speaker 1: focused on on the wealth and equality aspect. So I 307 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 1: think both of those were really UH important. UM questions 308 00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:14,520 Speaker 1: to ask and and and and essentially, you know, the 309 00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:18,439 Speaker 1: Fed chairman UH said they really didn't have much choice, 310 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:22,600 Speaker 1: that they weren't hitting their goals in terms of maximum 311 00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:26,200 Speaker 1: employment and price stability. UM, that you know, they were 312 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 1: really couldn't be concerned with the level of asset prices. 313 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 1: And and he really kind of you know, sidestepped the 314 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:38,920 Speaker 1: whole question about um wealth inequality. UM. But he also 315 00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:42,159 Speaker 1: did you know, I think Michael is also asking about um, 316 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:47,120 Speaker 1: you know, financial stability, and I thought, UH, Chairman Powell's 317 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:50,919 Speaker 1: way of framing that was to go to the banks 318 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:54,080 Speaker 1: and say, well, the banks were better capitalized. H And 319 00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 1: that's true, but in other areas of the Monetary Policy Report, 320 00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:03,040 Speaker 1: they it flags some issues with households and businesses and 321 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 1: non bank financials, so um, you know, he started put 322 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 1: them more a little bit more of a positive and 323 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:12,920 Speaker 1: in the actual report, well, it's tricky. It gets to 324 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:14,600 Speaker 1: the heart of what we've been talking to so much 325 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:18,159 Speaker 1: about here at Bloomberg. UH. And in light of the virus, 326 00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 1: to be quite honest, and also what happened in Minneapolis 327 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:23,560 Speaker 1: and the killing of George Floyd, and again we're talking 328 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:27,280 Speaker 1: about inequalities, racism, in America and we're once again having 329 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,960 Speaker 1: that discussion of wealth creation versus income, you know, and 330 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:34,080 Speaker 1: where we're seeing the gaps, and there's a lot, uh 331 00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:36,879 Speaker 1: and a wide gap in America when it comes to 332 00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:39,399 Speaker 1: who has the wealth and who does not. And you 333 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:42,680 Speaker 1: certainly get into that, you know, lots of questions about 334 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:45,919 Speaker 1: the FED and central banks, you essential banks and their 335 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,200 Speaker 1: role in creating bubbles. Your point is, I mean, we 336 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:51,320 Speaker 1: can learn from the past, and I guess the past 337 00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:55,159 Speaker 1: has shown us that the FED doesn't necessarily think a 338 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 1: lot about the bubbles they're creating. Well, they may be 339 00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 1: aware from but I guess they feel there's not much 340 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:05,440 Speaker 1: they can do about it. So the most famous one 341 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:10,800 Speaker 1: was the so called a rational exuberant speech that form 342 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:16,760 Speaker 1: ofthe Chairman Greenspan gave in December ninety six. And at 343 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:22,200 Speaker 1: that time the NASDAK was around twelve hundred or so, 344 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:28,080 Speaker 1: essentially climbed to five thousand. So you know, I think 345 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 1: the attitude on the part of the policymakers is that 346 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 1: they really can't identify a bubble, uh, and they'll just 347 00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:39,600 Speaker 1: deal with the aftermath. And we have a very similar 348 00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:43,320 Speaker 1: situation two thousands with the housing bubble and you know 349 00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:45,560 Speaker 1: that the said was very slow to react to that, 350 00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:48,240 Speaker 1: and then they kind of let asset prices go here 351 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:51,120 Speaker 1: up until you know, the COVID crisis and just let 352 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:54,639 Speaker 1: let the you know, stack prices continue to rise and 353 00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:58,639 Speaker 1: without much concern. To be fair though, and and you know, 354 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:00,679 Speaker 1: and I know you listened to the in Burg. I mean, 355 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,560 Speaker 1: as we've had many discussions for a long time, it 356 00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:06,080 Speaker 1: felt like the FED was the only game in town. Uh. 357 00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:09,040 Speaker 1: And we've certainly seen relief come from from the US government, 358 00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:13,520 Speaker 1: but the FED was certainly looking at ways to calm 359 00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:16,560 Speaker 1: the markets, you know, make it easy to make sure 360 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:18,960 Speaker 1: that money was flowing throughout the economy, especially in the 361 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:22,200 Speaker 1: early days of the crisis and the shutting down of 362 00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:24,840 Speaker 1: the economy. And so, you know, is it fair to 363 00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 1: say that you at least you know, understand kind of 364 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:29,200 Speaker 1: what the FED is thinking about and what it's watching 365 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:31,480 Speaker 1: and maybe what it kind of almost had no choice 366 00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:34,159 Speaker 1: but to do and to make it and kind of 367 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:39,359 Speaker 1: set the path for potentially creating another bubble. Well, the 368 00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 1: problem is they really didn't have a choice because if 369 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 1: they didn't do those things would be a whole lot worse. 370 00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 1: Well that's no, but that's my point. That's my point 371 00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:51,840 Speaker 1: exactly that they didn't really have a choice, right, They 372 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:54,480 Speaker 1: really didn't have a choice. They had to restore the 373 00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:58,639 Speaker 1: functioning and of the financial markets number one, which I 374 00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:01,480 Speaker 1: think they've done a pretty good job of doing that. Um. 375 00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 1: And then because of the huge uh you know, setback 376 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:09,879 Speaker 1: we've had in the economy, Uh, you're actually restoring some 377 00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:15,520 Speaker 1: wealth can be helpful in terms of spending, and that 378 00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:18,720 Speaker 1: could help support the economy. So you know, I'm not 379 00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:23,879 Speaker 1: saying it's not necessary, but my point was, you know, 380 00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:27,760 Speaker 1: in that the financial markets basically have a green light 381 00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:29,920 Speaker 1: to go where they want to go, and the FIT 382 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,399 Speaker 1: is not going to come in and stop it and 383 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:35,720 Speaker 1: pop it. Well, and I just just got about thirty 384 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 1: seconds here, Joe, So do you see a bubble and 385 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:42,720 Speaker 1: what that bubble might be at this point? Just quickly so? So, um, 386 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:44,920 Speaker 1: you know, I think there's a limit on how much 387 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:48,680 Speaker 1: uh you know, the treasury rates can go down here. Um. 388 00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:50,760 Speaker 1: You know, I think we kind of explored where those 389 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 1: lows were not just in the US, but but globally. Um. 390 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:58,520 Speaker 1: And in terms of stock market evaluations, I see those 391 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:02,119 Speaker 1: is more fairly proh. There's a measure I'd like to 392 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:05,680 Speaker 1: look at on a forward basis, right looking at the 393 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 1: Triple Bonniels and and we're close to zero today on 394 00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:14,879 Speaker 1: the equity risk premium um and we never went below 395 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,840 Speaker 1: that during the entire two thousand nine to two thousand 396 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:25,720 Speaker 1: That's that's great. Yeah, that's great perspective. UM, Joe, thank 397 00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:27,760 Speaker 1: you so much. Nice to get some time with you 398 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,879 Speaker 1: on this Wednesday. Really appreciate Jo Kayleish, his chief Global 399 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:33,520 Speaker 1: macro Strategies at ned David's Research, joining us on the 400 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:37,840 Speaker 1: phone in Sarasota, Florida. This is Bloomberg Business Week with 401 00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:41,879 Speaker 1: Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio and our 402 00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:44,199 Speaker 1: weekly Bloomberg Green segment. We're gonna take a look at 403 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:46,440 Speaker 1: the common traits that are often found in leaders who 404 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:49,359 Speaker 1: really really move the needle when it comes to sustainability. 405 00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:51,800 Speaker 1: So let's get right to that story. I feel like 406 00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,399 Speaker 1: I love when we get to specifics. Emily Chason is 407 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:57,440 Speaker 1: Sustainability editor Bloomberg New She joins us on the phone 408 00:22:57,480 --> 00:22:59,639 Speaker 1: once again in New York City. UM, Emily, good to 409 00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:02,840 Speaker 1: have back with us. Tell us about this story. I'm 410 00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:04,840 Speaker 1: just curious about they said, Okay, you're gonna go talk 411 00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:06,399 Speaker 1: to leaders and find out what's in come and tell 412 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:10,480 Speaker 1: us how it came about and what you found out. Yeah, 413 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,120 Speaker 1: so thanks so much for having me again, Kara Um. 414 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:16,560 Speaker 1: This is a really interesting topic right now because there's 415 00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:19,320 Speaker 1: so much systemic change in the system right now. There's 416 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:24,480 Speaker 1: a pandemic, there's climate change, there's um huge issues around 417 00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:28,320 Speaker 1: inequality and social justice. And who are the types of 418 00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 1: leaders who can solve those problems and identify these issues 419 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:35,000 Speaker 1: sooner rather than later and pivot and make changes in't that? 420 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:39,080 Speaker 1: So what we did was we talked to Russell Reynolds Association, 421 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:42,080 Speaker 1: which as a recruiter, and they have been looking at 422 00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,360 Speaker 1: the traits of leaders at the companies that are sort 423 00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:48,520 Speaker 1: of scoring the best unsustainability UM. That's companies like Unilever, 424 00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:52,280 Speaker 1: companies like Hilton Hotels UM. They were un Global compact 425 00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:54,320 Speaker 1: to sign those and what they found was there were 426 00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:57,119 Speaker 1: some traits that sort of make a sustainability leader and 427 00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:59,399 Speaker 1: some traits they might be born with. I have to 428 00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 1: just say just kind of a call out and maybe 429 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:03,280 Speaker 1: a little flex for Jason and me, but we have 430 00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 1: talked to both the head of Hilton, Christmas Set and 431 00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:12,520 Speaker 1: Alan joke of Uni Leaver. So we have talked with them, Yeah, exactly, exactly, So, UM, 432 00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:16,440 Speaker 1: tell us a bit more about what those traits are. Yeah. 433 00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,080 Speaker 1: So well, the first one they found was being a 434 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:22,919 Speaker 1: multi level systems thinker and being able to incorporate systems 435 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:27,280 Speaker 1: thinking into your your leadership style. Right. And then there 436 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,320 Speaker 1: were also people who wanted to actively include stakeholders in 437 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:32,960 Speaker 1: their talks and really you know, understand the issues of 438 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,680 Speaker 1: stakeholders and UM bring them in, not in terms not 439 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 1: managing them, not telling them what to do, but to 440 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:40,560 Speaker 1: bring them in and bring them along. UM. The other 441 00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:44,000 Speaker 1: one was disruptive innovation UM and being able to challenge 442 00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:47,600 Speaker 1: traditional approaches and cut the bureaucracy and sort of figure 443 00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:51,119 Speaker 1: out where those tradeoffs are between profitability and sustainability. And 444 00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:53,600 Speaker 1: the last one was having sort of a long term mindset. 445 00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:56,880 Speaker 1: So they found these four ideas and it wasn't necessarily 446 00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:58,640 Speaker 1: that leaders were born with them a lot of times 447 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:01,240 Speaker 1: maybe they were, but sometimes they wake up to them 448 00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:03,640 Speaker 1: across the course of their career, like they go through 449 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:08,880 Speaker 1: a UM transformative business opportunity and say, oh my gosh, wait, 450 00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:12,520 Speaker 1: I can think differently about this. Yeah, I mean, and 451 00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:15,600 Speaker 1: man as you said, we are seeing this so across 452 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 1: the board right now in this moment, right I mean, 453 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:24,680 Speaker 1: in this moment where a CEO isn't allowed to I 454 00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:27,000 Speaker 1: shouldn't say it is allowed, isn't able to just like 455 00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:29,280 Speaker 1: jet around the world and sort of hop from place 456 00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:31,879 Speaker 1: to place. They're usually in one spot. They're having to 457 00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:35,000 Speaker 1: deal with everything that's in front of them. Uh. And 458 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:38,480 Speaker 1: one of those things, obviously, are these big issues of equality, 459 00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:43,879 Speaker 1: which demand a level of accountability and transparency that we 460 00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:48,160 Speaker 1: just have not seen leaders subjected to in a long time, 461 00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:50,480 Speaker 1: if ever, Carol, Yeah, I think it's a really good point. 462 00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:52,680 Speaker 1: And there's another story in the terminal and and we 463 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:54,000 Speaker 1: I don't know if you saw this too, but it 464 00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:57,200 Speaker 1: talked about E s G investors, those who run E 465 00:25:57,359 --> 00:26:00,359 Speaker 1: s G funds, you know, and they're constantly saying to 466 00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:02,720 Speaker 1: other companies and leaders like, hey, where's your diversity, we're 467 00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:05,680 Speaker 1: your sustainability, And now they're looking at their own firms 468 00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:07,960 Speaker 1: and finding out, oh wait, we're not doing so well 469 00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,639 Speaker 1: on that Market's just kind of, you know, kind of 470 00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,040 Speaker 1: blows your mind. And it's great that I think people 471 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:16,440 Speaker 1: are finally really understanding what it means to be either 472 00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:19,679 Speaker 1: diverse or sustainable. You know, it has to be all 473 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:23,600 Speaker 1: the way around. Yeah, it's definitely important to be authentic 474 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:25,359 Speaker 1: and all of these things sort of walk the walk 475 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:29,440 Speaker 1: um to talk to talk um. So we also talked 476 00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:31,800 Speaker 1: to the Carlisle Group, which is that what the Impact 477 00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:34,480 Speaker 1: report this week on what they've been doing, and we 478 00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:36,040 Speaker 1: asked them about, you know, how are you seeing this 479 00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:39,400 Speaker 1: in the real world, and they said that the management 480 00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:41,840 Speaker 1: teams that really focus on where the world is going 481 00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:44,000 Speaker 1: versus where it has been are the ones that are 482 00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:49,760 Speaker 1: generating great financial performance. Interesting. Yeah, I mean, and I 483 00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,680 Speaker 1: will say private equity in in many ways, and Emily, 484 00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:54,359 Speaker 1: you and I have talked about this before. We've been 485 00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:57,879 Speaker 1: at some of the same conferences around investing, and you know, 486 00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:00,840 Speaker 1: the private equity fronts for all of the slings and 487 00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:03,440 Speaker 1: arrows that they take it in many ways, they seem 488 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 1: to have kind of gotten religion around impact over the 489 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:08,639 Speaker 1: past few years. You know, you think about what KKR 490 00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 1: is doing, Carlisle you mentioned, and others, you know, and 491 00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:14,719 Speaker 1: not to mention the ones who are very focused, uh 492 00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:18,720 Speaker 1: specifically on this, like Generation which I know, our Gore Shop, 493 00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:22,399 Speaker 1: which you've spent some time with. Yeah, definitely. A lot 494 00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:25,680 Speaker 1: of them are focused on this right now. KKR actually 495 00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:28,399 Speaker 1: had a deal this week on water Um. There's a 496 00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:30,680 Speaker 1: lot of thinking about the thing. You know, it would 497 00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:32,240 Speaker 1: look at those long term trends. We want to happen 498 00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:34,840 Speaker 1: to them right now, especially in private equity, and especially 499 00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,920 Speaker 1: in finding those leaders who can make the pivots necessary 500 00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:41,119 Speaker 1: to build the infrastructure of the future. Well, and not 501 00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:44,040 Speaker 1: for nothing, but what the private The reasons the private 502 00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:47,040 Speaker 1: equity guys have gotten religion around this, as you well know, Emily, 503 00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:49,000 Speaker 1: is because they can make a lot of money, and 504 00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,399 Speaker 1: and these executives that they can attract can make a 505 00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:54,280 Speaker 1: lot of money, and so you know, not surprisingly Hilton, 506 00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:58,120 Speaker 1: you know, not necessarily a sustainability player and impact play, 507 00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:01,320 Speaker 1: but private equity back. So really interesting, all right, Emily Chason, 508 00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:02,960 Speaker 1: thank you so much. Good to catch up with you. 509 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:06,360 Speaker 1: Our sustainability editor for Bloomberg joining us on the phone 510 00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:09,440 Speaker 1: from New York City. Sustainable leaders have these traits in common. 511 00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:11,760 Speaker 1: Check that out on the Bloomberg or Bloomberg dot com. 512 00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:14,920 Speaker 1: Pretty interesting, right, yeah, totally interesting. But I think you 513 00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:17,400 Speaker 1: know you and I've talked about too about everybody. Okay, 514 00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:19,400 Speaker 1: let's do another focus group, let's talk about the problem. 515 00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:22,400 Speaker 1: Blah blah blah. You know this is getting down to okay, 516 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,480 Speaker 1: what makes a leader a really great leader in creating 517 00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:29,120 Speaker 1: a diverse workforce, a diverse supply chain. Like, let's get 518 00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:31,960 Speaker 1: down to the stace. How do you do That's that, 519 00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:34,520 Speaker 1: that's what That's what creates it. Doing stuff. There's our 520 00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:38,640 Speaker 1: next T shirt. Yeah, doing stuff, Just do it. Just 521 00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:40,520 Speaker 1: do good stuff. At a boss a long time ago, 522 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,640 Speaker 1: he said, just do good stuff. He didn't give any 523 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:45,800 Speaker 1: direction other than that, but that's the way went did. 524 00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:48,080 Speaker 1: But it was pretty clear message. Yeah, just can you 525 00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:50,600 Speaker 1: say it's like it makes sense. You're listening to Bloomberg 526 00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:53,600 Speaker 1: Business Week on this Wednesday, Carol Master along with Jason Kelly. 527 00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:56,080 Speaker 1: It is time to cut you down to the closing bill. 528 00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:59,320 Speaker 1: Aaron Kennon is back with us. He's co founder and 529 00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:02,120 Speaker 1: chief executive officer at Clear Harbor Asset Management. Back with 530 00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:05,600 Speaker 1: us once again on the phone from Greenwich, Connecticut. Aaron, 531 00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:07,800 Speaker 1: good to have you here with us. You know we've 532 00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,400 Speaker 1: been talking with you certainly throughout the year and throughout 533 00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:14,000 Speaker 1: this crisis. Um, I don't know how has your outlook 534 00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:19,000 Speaker 1: on the markets, on the economic rebound maybe changed over 535 00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:21,920 Speaker 1: the last few months. Well, great to be back, Carol, 536 00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:25,280 Speaker 1: thank you. Um, well, let's see. I mean, certainly we 537 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,160 Speaker 1: are going through a period where there's this huge divergence 538 00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:31,880 Speaker 1: right between the the equity markets and the real economy. 539 00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:35,520 Speaker 1: Now that that's not necessarily a new thing, but the 540 00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:40,080 Speaker 1: degree to which we're seeing a divergence is quite uh significant, 541 00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:42,240 Speaker 1: meaning that you know, the equity market tends to be 542 00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:45,240 Speaker 1: a discounting mechanism. It tends to recover or start to 543 00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:48,600 Speaker 1: recover ahead of a recovery in the real economy. But 544 00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:53,600 Speaker 1: you know, to come thirty nine, not including today, off 545 00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:57,320 Speaker 1: of that March twenty three low is quite a significant. 546 00:29:57,320 --> 00:30:00,600 Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of optimism built in the 547 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,320 Speaker 1: equity markets and when we you know, sort of look 548 00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,880 Speaker 1: at the divergence even within the equity market. Um, I 549 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:10,719 Speaker 1: think it really details a tale of two stories. Um 550 00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:14,480 Speaker 1: the technology piece is in a bowl market and the 551 00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:17,400 Speaker 1: financial piece is very much in a bear market. And 552 00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:20,080 Speaker 1: I think that's really sort of proven itself out maybe 553 00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:23,200 Speaker 1: perhaps since we last spoke. And so where does it 554 00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:25,800 Speaker 1: go from here? Do you think, Karen? Well, I think 555 00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:27,920 Speaker 1: as as we wade through this crisis, it's going to 556 00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:30,040 Speaker 1: be long. They're going to be a lot of speed bumps, Jason, 557 00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:33,520 Speaker 1: and UM. I believe that, you know, the technology sector 558 00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:37,520 Speaker 1: is an asset light sector that's focused on providing productivity 559 00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:40,840 Speaker 1: to their clients, to their corporations. UM. In this period 560 00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:44,480 Speaker 1: of future deglobalization, where you're going to have supply chains 561 00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:47,400 Speaker 1: moving all around the world, technology is going to play 562 00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:50,160 Speaker 1: a key role in that effort. I think companies with 563 00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:54,240 Speaker 1: strong balance sheets, with strong management, and strong capital allocators 564 00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:58,080 Speaker 1: more generally are going to capture some market share during 565 00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:00,880 Speaker 1: this crisis. They have been capturing markets or during this crisis, 566 00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:03,080 Speaker 1: and will be even stronger as we come out the 567 00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,200 Speaker 1: other side. So I think that trend continues. In The 568 00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:08,480 Speaker 1: real question in our minds at Clear Harbor is well, 569 00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:13,160 Speaker 1: what about valuations and UM? Technology valuations have become you know, 570 00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:17,040 Speaker 1: quite quite lofty across the board and UM. But you know, 571 00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:18,640 Speaker 1: you look at the banks and they're they're in a 572 00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:22,120 Speaker 1: bear market. UM. Net interest margins are are collapsing, loan 573 00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:27,440 Speaker 1: loan growth is certainly a problem UM, and and the 574 00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:30,800 Speaker 1: credit picture is being butchered by the Fed. So UM, 575 00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:32,600 Speaker 1: go ahead here, No, you know what I was thinking, Aaron, 576 00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:34,560 Speaker 1: They're listening to you what you said about technology, and 577 00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:36,640 Speaker 1: I certainly agree with you, but I got it to say, 578 00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:39,440 Speaker 1: I look at my world and increasingly, I mean, Jason 579 00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,680 Speaker 1: and I are doing our radio show because of technology, 580 00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:44,600 Speaker 1: and everybody is working at home because of technology. And 581 00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:47,200 Speaker 1: I feel like, despite what the outlook is, if there's 582 00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:51,560 Speaker 1: any one consistent theme that we can count on, and 583 00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:54,040 Speaker 1: I know it's been what's propelled the market's higher, you know, 584 00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:58,600 Speaker 1: coming off the crisis, but it is technology, absolutely, so 585 00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:02,520 Speaker 1: I would be in in plead agreement with that. And um, 586 00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:05,520 Speaker 1: and I think you know, we we do have points 587 00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:07,720 Speaker 1: of concern across the economy. I mean, certainly if you 588 00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:11,440 Speaker 1: look at the SP five as in its entirety trading 589 00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:13,960 Speaker 1: at you know, pick your number, but it probably best 590 00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:16,880 Speaker 1: case twenty four times two thousand and twenty one earnings, 591 00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:22,080 Speaker 1: so that that's a lofty multiple. UM. Corporate debtloads are 592 00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:26,160 Speaker 1: are high. We saw the record high yield issuance this month, 593 00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:29,840 Speaker 1: and um, you know that's that's all very much supported 594 00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:33,320 Speaker 1: by by FED policy. Around the fallen angels. Unemployment, I 595 00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:36,080 Speaker 1: think it's a huge question mark. And I've been hearing 596 00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:38,760 Speaker 1: a lot about the rise in the savings rate. Um, 597 00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:40,600 Speaker 1: it's at a record. I don't think we saw a 598 00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:43,520 Speaker 1: savings rate spike like this in our entire lifetime. And 599 00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:45,640 Speaker 1: some of you that as a positive that there's cash 600 00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:48,040 Speaker 1: on the sidelines. Well, you know, can I just can 601 00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:50,280 Speaker 1: I just jump? Because Jason and I talked about this yesterday, 602 00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:52,600 Speaker 1: you know, as our reporting Ben Steve Berman put out 603 00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:55,840 Speaker 1: a story that you know, yea that Americans have some 604 00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:59,400 Speaker 1: money on the sidelines, but there is still consistently, you know, 605 00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:02,680 Speaker 1: research showing that most Americans out there don't even have 606 00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:05,000 Speaker 1: enough money to deal with like a car bill of 607 00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:08,240 Speaker 1: four hundred dollars like that money on the sidelines. Some 608 00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:11,080 Speaker 1: people are gonna have to live on that. And I know, 609 00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:14,240 Speaker 1: well that's right, that's absolutely right. And and the money 610 00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:18,000 Speaker 1: on the sidelines is is it an indication of optimism 611 00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:21,240 Speaker 1: or is an indication of of anxiety? What will be 612 00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:26,000 Speaker 1: the catalyst for altering that anxiety level? And so, you know, 613 00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:30,320 Speaker 1: you mentioned the FED Arran and I feel like history 614 00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:32,480 Speaker 1: will be very kind. I've said this on this program 615 00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:37,000 Speaker 1: before to j Powell and his cohorts for what they 616 00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:39,920 Speaker 1: have done. Don't fight the FED obviously has been one 617 00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:41,680 Speaker 1: of the mantras that We've heard over and over again 618 00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:46,960 Speaker 1: from both institutional and individual investors, what do you think 619 00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:50,480 Speaker 1: the FED cannon should do next or what can we 620 00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:53,440 Speaker 1: expect them to do next? Well, I think they're going 621 00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:57,600 Speaker 1: to continue to provide um, you know, college stimulus, um 622 00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:01,920 Speaker 1: monetary growth for as long as far as the eye 623 00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:05,320 Speaker 1: can see. And I think the fiscal side, trickularly heading 624 00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:07,960 Speaker 1: into a president presidential election, will do the same. So 625 00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:11,480 Speaker 1: expect another fiscal stimulus package four point oh coming along 626 00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:14,000 Speaker 1: next month. But I also think the FED is stuck 627 00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:16,040 Speaker 1: because they're trying to weaken the dollar. They would never 628 00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:18,960 Speaker 1: say that they are, but the world is faced with 629 00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:21,920 Speaker 1: this COVID crisis. It's not just the US economic slowdown, 630 00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:24,800 Speaker 1: and so it's difficult, you know, for the U S 631 00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:27,080 Speaker 1: Dollar to, you know, which is a flight to quality 632 00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:30,320 Speaker 1: currency along with the en to depreciate here in the 633 00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:32,719 Speaker 1: midst of this global uncertainty. And I think that's one 634 00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:35,600 Speaker 1: point of a real frustration for the FED right now. 635 00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:37,920 Speaker 1: Do you think the Fed's creating another bubble? And it's 636 00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:40,400 Speaker 1: just piggybacks on a conversation that we have with Joe 637 00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:43,719 Speaker 1: Kalis earlier Na Davis's research, and you know, the Fed, 638 00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:45,520 Speaker 1: doesn't you know, they're doing what they can to how 639 00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:49,000 Speaker 1: about this economy, but as a result, maybe not so 640 00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:51,320 Speaker 1: concerned about bubbles. They haven't been in the past. We 641 00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:54,200 Speaker 1: need to be concerned about that. Aaron, Well, I mean, 642 00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:55,960 Speaker 1: I think the FED is caught between a rock and 643 00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:59,160 Speaker 1: a hard place. Certainly, they're creating some bubbles. Some are 644 00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:03,640 Speaker 1: maybe identifiable now and some will be identifiable uh later. 645 00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:06,040 Speaker 1: But that isn't to say that the FED policy to 646 00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,239 Speaker 1: try to sort of keep this economy flow, which was 647 00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:11,320 Speaker 1: sort of a government induced initiative to close down the economy, 648 00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:13,680 Speaker 1: is not warranted. I mean, I think the FED is 649 00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:16,560 Speaker 1: is in a is in a very difficult position, but 650 00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:18,359 Speaker 1: they have a lot of firepower, and I think they'll 651 00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:22,759 Speaker 1: continue to provide liquidity and will liquidity to allow for 652 00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:26,920 Speaker 1: insolvency rage to decline. I think that's a big question 653 00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:30,000 Speaker 1: and only time we'll tell on that. All right, Aaron Kennan, 654 00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:31,480 Speaker 1: thank you so much. We're gonna leave with their co 655 00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:35,000 Speaker 1: founder CEO Clear Harbor Asset Management joining us on the 656 00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:38,440 Speaker 1: phone from Greenwich. Thanks so much for listening to Bloomberg 657 00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:40,840 Speaker 1: Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, South Cloud of 658 00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Dot com but wherever you get your podcasts, and 659 00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:45,560 Speaker 1: of course you can always listen to our radio show 660 00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:48,319 Speaker 1: at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us 661 00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:50,600 Speaker 1: on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News