WEBVTT - It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind 2028: Is JD Vance Inevitable? Democrats in Disarray & Jeffries’ House Problem 0:00:03.120 --> 0:00:05.280 Welcome back to a Numbers game with Ryan Groski. Thank 0:00:05.320 --> 0:00:08.119 you all for being here. I want to say Happy 0:00:08.119 --> 0:00:10.680 Saint Patrick's Day and recording this the day before, so 0:00:10.720 --> 0:00:13.760 it is Saint Patrick's Day as the recording of this, 0:00:14.000 --> 0:00:16.640 and I want to wish everyone who is of Irish 0:00:16.960 --> 0:00:20.639 ancestry or who has Irish ancestry. I meant to say, 0:00:20.760 --> 0:00:23.680 who has Irish ancestry like myself, a very happy Saint 0:00:23.680 --> 0:00:26.800 Patrick Day. I hope you all celebrate being Irish, really 0:00:26.840 --> 0:00:30.600 being Irish, which apparently the President of Ireland and the 0:00:30.600 --> 0:00:33.400 Prime Minister of Ireland do not share my joy of 0:00:33.880 --> 0:00:36.720 the history of the Celtic people. I don't know if 0:00:36.840 --> 0:00:39.960 if anyone saw it, but Michael Martin, the Prime Minister 0:00:39.960 --> 0:00:44.519 of Ireland, was in Washington on Saint Patrick's Day. I 0:00:44.560 --> 0:00:47.519 attended an event in the morning with Vice President of Advance. 0:00:47.920 --> 0:00:51.040 There was a prayer. President Advance blessed himself. Michael Martin 0:00:51.080 --> 0:00:54.840 didn't because the Irish politicians are allergic to being Catholic 0:00:55.000 --> 0:00:58.320 or having Catholic ancestry and lineage to them. Then sat 0:00:58.360 --> 0:01:01.440 with President Trump and nod how Ireland has just been 0:01:01.520 --> 0:01:04.839 thriving because of mass immigration. One in four people living 0:01:04.840 --> 0:01:08.000 in Ireland now is an immigrant. They've opened the floodgates 0:01:08.080 --> 0:01:10.600 across the country to Ireland and to the Middle East, 0:01:10.600 --> 0:01:15.480 and it's doing wonders for petty theft and for housing prices. 0:01:15.560 --> 0:01:19.360 And you know there's Irish citizens rogue, Irish citizens burning 0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:22.679 down asylum hotels. He mentions none of that. He says 0:01:22.680 --> 0:01:25.959 it's right with the economy is thriving. And Trump, to 0:01:26.120 --> 0:01:28.080 his credit, actually did push back and said a lot 0:01:28.080 --> 0:01:30.720 of problems are coming with it. And then over in 0:01:30.760 --> 0:01:34.200 Ireland you had the new Irish president, Catherine Connolly, who 0:01:34.240 --> 0:01:38.039 wore black, refused to call Saint Patrick Saint Patrick. She's 0:01:38.080 --> 0:01:40.679 called him Patrick as if she was his drinking buddy, 0:01:41.480 --> 0:01:44.840 and then talked about how it's really a day about migration. 0:01:45.720 --> 0:01:47.760 For those who don't know the history of Saint Patrick. 0:01:47.800 --> 0:01:51.280 He was a slave. He wasn't a migrant. It is 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:54.680 an insult to call a he was a slave. I mean, 0:01:55.120 --> 0:01:57.840 it was no migration, there was no passport. He went there. 0:01:57.880 --> 0:02:01.280 He was forcibly brought to Ireland, but did great things 0:02:01.320 --> 0:02:06.480 with his time there. And it's absolutely in furi The 0:02:06.520 --> 0:02:10.800 Irish politicians who govern that country are embarrassments. I know, 0:02:10.840 --> 0:02:13.320 I have a few Irish listeners. I have relatives who 0:02:13.360 --> 0:02:15.920 live in County Cork, I have relatives who live in Belfast. 0:02:17.120 --> 0:02:22.080 It's an embarrassment. It's the most embarrassing politicians of any 0:02:22.160 --> 0:02:26.120 country in Europe. And England has Cure Starmer. That just 0:02:26.200 --> 0:02:30.040 goes to show how badly Ireland has fallen on its times. 0:02:30.080 --> 0:02:33.880 And Ireland is the last country in all of Europe, 0:02:33.880 --> 0:02:37.480 to Western Europe especially not to have an effective populist 0:02:37.480 --> 0:02:39.880 party pushing back in immigration. I know there's the Independence 0:02:39.919 --> 0:02:43.600 Ireland Party, but they're very small, they're very minor. They're 0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:45.119 trying to get it together. They only have I think 0:02:45.160 --> 0:02:50.079 three seats in their parliament, not enough to have any 0:02:50.160 --> 0:02:52.919 kind of effective governing. And the three major parties all 0:02:52.919 --> 0:02:54.840 believe in the same thing, which is the erasure of 0:02:54.919 --> 0:02:59.880 Irish history, of Irish people in Irish culture. Absolutely horror, 0:03:00.600 --> 0:03:05.520 especially on a day to celebrate the resilience of the 0:03:05.560 --> 0:03:10.320 Irish people and all that Ireland gave the world. I mean, 0:03:10.320 --> 0:03:13.120 it's absolutely astonishing. And you know, it's so funny. There 0:03:13.160 --> 0:03:16.079 was an app on I see the ads on Instagram 0:03:16.120 --> 0:03:18.080 all the time. It's a history app. I don't know 0:03:18.080 --> 0:03:20.359 the name of it, but they one day talked about 0:03:20.360 --> 0:03:23.359 the two hundred thousand Irish orphans that were shipped to 0:03:23.400 --> 0:03:27.800 America and used basically as slave labor, and Irish slavery, 0:03:27.800 --> 0:03:29.960 which has never talked about in his own country. And 0:03:30.000 --> 0:03:32.480 the endurance of the Irish people to survive is by 0:03:32.560 --> 0:03:38.360 famine and really horrific treatment, and now their politicians are 0:03:38.360 --> 0:03:41.240 willing to wipe that all away in the name of diversity. 0:03:41.280 --> 0:03:45.000 They have traded hatred for the English for hatred for themselves. 0:03:45.440 --> 0:03:48.480 And to quote a short lived poem by Patrick Pierce, 0:03:48.920 --> 0:03:51.200 I am come of the seed of the people, the 0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:54.400 people of that sorrow, that have no treasure, but hope, 0:03:54.520 --> 0:03:58.160 no riches, laid a memory of an ancient glory. My 0:03:58.240 --> 0:04:01.200 mother bore me into bondage, and as my mother was born, 0:04:01.600 --> 0:04:03.640 I come of the seat of the people, the people 0:04:03.640 --> 0:04:07.560 that sorrow. There's no reason Irish people to have any 0:04:07.600 --> 0:04:12.120 sense of guilt whatsoever, or to destroy their heritage and 0:04:12.160 --> 0:04:16.040 their country by flooding it with migrants from across the world. 0:04:16.200 --> 0:04:19.400 Ireland needs, you know, a place for the Irish. It 0:04:20.520 --> 0:04:23.600 is what it is anyway. I'm not an Irish citizen. 0:04:23.640 --> 0:04:25.000 I don't know why I care so much. I think 0:04:25.040 --> 0:04:28.880 it's because the Irish heritage, and I have relatives named Seamus, 0:04:29.720 --> 0:04:33.159 so I mean, you get about Irish as it gets, 0:04:33.160 --> 0:04:37.640 and just to see that just our collective ancestry being 0:04:37.760 --> 0:04:41.920 washed away. Okay, enough about Ireland, let's talk about America. 0:04:43.720 --> 0:04:46.880 I am. I know what you're all thinking right now. 0:04:47.440 --> 0:04:50.719 You're all thinking, Ryan, you were right again? How did 0:04:50.760 --> 0:04:53.599 you know? How'd you do it? And you're probably all saying, 0:04:53.640 --> 0:04:56.880 what are you talking about? So I set a month 0:04:56.920 --> 0:05:00.719 ago on this podcast that Hakem Jeffrey is going to 0:05:00.839 --> 0:05:03.279 quickly wake up and realize that if he has a 0:05:03.279 --> 0:05:06.920 House majority in January, it will be the house that 0:05:07.000 --> 0:05:11.520 Bernie Sanders built. Bernie Sanders and progressive activists who love 0:05:11.600 --> 0:05:15.640 Bernie have been winning primaries across the country. They are 0:05:15.760 --> 0:05:18.960 changing the face of the Democratic Party, and a lot 0:05:19.000 --> 0:05:23.280 of them not big fans of Hakeem Jeffries, and they're 0:05:23.320 --> 0:05:26.200 increasingly saying they're unsure if they're going to support him 0:05:26.600 --> 0:05:30.400 for House Speaker. Axios. That's what I said a month ago. 0:05:30.520 --> 0:05:32.280 Now Axis is out with a new report that had 0:05:32.320 --> 0:05:36.680 a number of Democratic candidates coming forward and saying they 0:05:36.720 --> 0:05:38.920 are unsure who the next Speaker will be that they're 0:05:38.960 --> 0:05:40.960 not gung ho for Hakim. This is the quint of 0:05:41.000 --> 0:05:45.320 axious Why it matters. It is a stark reversal from Jefferies' 0:05:45.440 --> 0:05:48.840 virtual untouchable standing in the Democratic Party just a few 0:05:48.920 --> 0:05:50.839 years ago, and a sign that has passed the speaker 0:05:51.160 --> 0:05:54.880 may be rockier then previously thought. Jeffries and his allies 0:05:54.920 --> 0:05:58.000 maintained there's not a remotely worried about a massed affection, 0:05:58.400 --> 0:06:01.920 pointing out that even the minority, he has endured twenty 0:06:01.960 --> 0:06:05.159 speaker ballots and hasn't lost a Democratic vote. But this 0:06:05.279 --> 0:06:08.080 crop of freshmen may provide the first chink in here 0:06:08.200 --> 0:06:11.919 two four impenetrable armor, with a block of genuinely viable 0:06:11.960 --> 0:06:15.120 candidates making clear that voting for Jeffries as Speaker is 0:06:15.160 --> 0:06:18.200 not a given if the Democrats take the House. As 0:06:18.240 --> 0:06:22.159 of now, there are eighty candidates running for a Congress 0:06:22.200 --> 0:06:26.240 this year who say they are not committed to backing Jeffries. 0:06:26.520 --> 0:06:30.520 That is not a small number. Especially Democrats find themselves 0:06:30.520 --> 0:06:32.919 in the same place that Kevin McCarthy did a couple 0:06:32.920 --> 0:06:35.279 of years ago. You have a majority, it's not a 0:06:35.360 --> 0:06:38.040 huge majority. What do you do A couple of defections 0:06:38.200 --> 0:06:41.280 means you have to concede a lot of things to them. 0:06:42.040 --> 0:06:46.600 It means you're not guaranteed to get the speakership. And 0:06:46.880 --> 0:06:50.040 in the era of Trump two point zero term two 0:06:50.080 --> 0:06:54.120 point zero, there is a lot of belief among rank 0:06:54.200 --> 0:06:57.560 and not rank Bible but activist Democrats the Democratic Party 0:06:57.640 --> 0:07:00.920 is not doing enough to fight the Orange Man right 0:07:00.960 --> 0:07:05.320 that the Democrats have gone along with funding the government 0:07:05.400 --> 0:07:07.320 that they've gone along with other things that they should 0:07:07.320 --> 0:07:10.160 have been doing more whatever it is more, I don't know. 0:07:10.240 --> 0:07:12.680 I think some Democrat activists would have wanted the Democrats 0:07:12.680 --> 0:07:15.320 to shut down the government of day one. They possibly 0:07:15.360 --> 0:07:17.840 could have and kept the government shut down all four years. 0:07:18.600 --> 0:07:21.920 And Jeffries hasn't gone along with that because being leader 0:07:22.040 --> 0:07:26.000 means you have to govern responsibly, So no surprise that 0:07:26.040 --> 0:07:29.600 he didn't do that. What Jeffries has going for him 0:07:29.680 --> 0:07:31.720 is the same thing that McCarthy had going for me 0:07:31.720 --> 0:07:37.680 is that there's no central opposition. Pelosi faced opposition a 0:07:37.720 --> 0:07:40.080 few times while she was Speaker, but there was a 0:07:40.120 --> 0:07:42.440 person running against her. There was a guy who running 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:44.240 against her and saying I'm going to be the opposition. 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:47.640 They always lost, but there was someone to rally troops 0:07:47.720 --> 0:07:54.240 against Pelosi. There is no one rallying troops against Jeffrey's 0:07:54.240 --> 0:07:56.360 like there's no one reallyships against McCarthy. They may be 0:07:56.440 --> 0:07:58.920 someone saying I don't want him to be in power, 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:01.600 but there's no no one's saying vote for me instead, 0:08:01.640 --> 0:08:04.280 which is important. Matt Gateston on McCarthy. But they didn't 0:08:04.280 --> 0:08:07.360 find a consensus candidate. Wasn't like Gates himself was being 0:08:07.600 --> 0:08:12.080 presented as a choice for speaker. There was nobody. It 0:08:12.160 --> 0:08:15.960 was either McCarthy or nobody. And they're kind of having 0:08:16.040 --> 0:08:17.960 the same situation with the Democratic Party right now. They 0:08:17.960 --> 0:08:21.960 don't have a singular person offering a progressive vision who 0:08:21.960 --> 0:08:25.000 could raise money, because that's a big part of the 0:08:25.080 --> 0:08:28.920 job is who can raise money. And the truth is 0:08:28.960 --> 0:08:32.120 you can't beat somebody with nobody, unless AOC or someone 0:08:32.360 --> 0:08:35.720 like that who has the belief, the support, the troops, 0:08:35.760 --> 0:08:38.800 the money, and I can't with this money is very 0:08:38.840 --> 0:08:42.640 important for the speaker. You're not going to find somebody 0:08:42.840 --> 0:08:47.000 kind of break Hakeem Jefferies' lock on the Democratic Party. 0:08:47.040 --> 0:08:49.840 So Haqem is safe right now, but things are dicey 0:08:50.600 --> 0:08:53.040 and if they don't get their way or they kept blank, 0:08:53.120 --> 0:08:55.920 or they cave one or two times, and they have 0:08:55.960 --> 0:08:58.680 a small majority, it's going to be very very dicey 0:08:58.679 --> 0:09:02.960 for Jeffries going anyway. That's my little nod to my 0:09:03.000 --> 0:09:05.520 audience telling I told you guys, I was ahead of 0:09:05.520 --> 0:09:07.960 the curb. I knew what was happening, and I think 0:09:07.960 --> 0:09:09.520 this is going to be a long term issue for 0:09:09.600 --> 0:09:12.360 Hikim Jeffreys and whoever governs the Democrats in the House. 0:09:12.360 --> 0:09:13.920 The Democrats are going to act a lot more like 0:09:13.960 --> 0:09:16.160 the Republicans in the House when it comes to being 0:09:16.280 --> 0:09:20.360 less orderly. Now, I want to talk about something else 0:09:20.440 --> 0:09:23.280 that people think is very far into the future, but 0:09:23.280 --> 0:09:25.960 it's actually only a few months away, and that is 0:09:26.040 --> 0:09:28.640 the twenty twenty eight presidential election. I know some of 0:09:28.640 --> 0:09:31.240 you are like Ryan, that's four years away. No, it's not. 0:09:31.640 --> 0:09:35.360 The first candidates who will announce their run for the 0:09:35.400 --> 0:09:39.920 White House will happen within the next nine months. Basically, 0:09:40.480 --> 0:09:42.040 you will have you could have a baby if you 0:09:42.040 --> 0:09:44.800 get pregnant today, and you will have a Democrat running 0:09:44.800 --> 0:09:47.760 for president or a Republican running for president by the 0:09:47.880 --> 0:09:51.000 time that baby is born. It's not a long time 0:09:51.120 --> 0:09:54.640 left before we're entering into the twenty twenty eight presidential cycle, 0:09:55.160 --> 0:09:58.240 and there's two things. There's two essential questions, which is 0:09:58.320 --> 0:10:02.640 one is JD Evans inevitable on the Republican side and 0:10:02.760 --> 0:10:05.959 who is the most likely candidate on the Democratic side. 0:10:06.360 --> 0:10:10.120 Let's go into the Republican side first. I get messages 0:10:10.160 --> 0:10:15.200 about JD literally every single week from somebody saying, you know, 0:10:16.080 --> 0:10:19.160 is the nomination process really over? What has he done 0:10:19.200 --> 0:10:21.520 to deserve the nomination? Is he ready to be president? 0:10:21.559 --> 0:10:24.600 Can we nominate someone else? Or is somebody else going 0:10:24.640 --> 0:10:29.440 to run? Let me answer the last question first, Is 0:10:29.440 --> 0:10:32.400 someone else going to run? Yes, other people are going 0:10:32.440 --> 0:10:36.000 to run. Ted Cruz is almost definitely running for president. 0:10:36.320 --> 0:10:38.080 You know, he believes that he's got some kind of 0:10:38.080 --> 0:10:40.960 compact with God where he ends up being president one day. 0:10:41.000 --> 0:10:43.959 He's almost destined. He's got this, you know, destined from 0:10:44.200 --> 0:10:48.160 from Christ himself to be president United States side. Note, 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:51.400 you guys remember when he picked Carly Fiorini as his 0:10:51.520 --> 0:10:54.840 vice presidential candidate and they kind of grass hands and 0:10:54.840 --> 0:10:56.520 missed each other's hands at the rally. I don't know 0:10:56.559 --> 0:11:00.160 why that kind of flashed in my memory as I 0:11:00.200 --> 0:11:02.520 was recalling Ted Cruz running for president, but it did. 0:11:03.320 --> 0:11:06.719 I've also heard rumors that Brian Kemp, Governor Georgia, is 0:11:06.720 --> 0:11:09.640 strongly considering a run. Ron to Santa's governor Florida is 0:11:09.640 --> 0:11:13.119 considering a run. I've heard Josh Holly, the Senator from Missouri, 0:11:13.240 --> 0:11:17.199 is asking questions. Ram Paul says that he's exploring his options. 0:11:17.200 --> 0:11:20.680 He's the senator from Kentucky. Steve Bannon, I've heard for 0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:23.760 a while wanted to run. But the Epstein stuff, the 0:11:23.800 --> 0:11:26.240 idea that he made this video tape with Epstein, not 0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:28.360 not those kinds of tapes, but a different kind of 0:11:28.360 --> 0:11:32.040 tape with Epstein and was interviewing him and never released 0:11:32.040 --> 0:11:35.120 the footage and could have been very complimentary for Epstein, 0:11:35.160 --> 0:11:37.760 possibly in the footage. Whatever the case may be, I heard, 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:42.400 it's really hurt his potential of running. There's other people 0:11:42.440 --> 0:11:44.680 who want to run but don't really have a lane. 0:11:44.760 --> 0:11:47.839 Telsea Gabbard I heard, is interested but doesn't know if 0:11:47.840 --> 0:11:50.040 she has got a lane. R Okay Junior very much 0:11:50.160 --> 0:11:52.360 wants to make a run for something and doesn't know 0:11:52.400 --> 0:11:55.040 if he has a lane. And then there's the nine 0:11:55.120 --> 0:11:57.600 hundred pounds elephant in the room, which is Mark or Rubio. 0:11:58.080 --> 0:12:03.360 Now Rubio has been doing optionally good job as Secretary 0:12:03.400 --> 0:12:05.880 of State, and everyone has taken notice, including the president, 0:12:07.160 --> 0:12:10.320 and it's clear that Rubio is having an effect on 0:12:10.480 --> 0:12:14.520 the President's thinking when it comes to foreign policy. According 0:12:14.559 --> 0:12:17.480 to several reports, President Trump has asked multile people if 0:12:17.480 --> 0:12:20.320 he should endure Vance or Rubia for president, and at 0:12:20.400 --> 0:12:22.640 least one report said that a lot of donors really 0:12:22.679 --> 0:12:25.080 do love Rubio. They love Rubia Moore. Also, I want 0:12:25.120 --> 0:12:28.079 to point out that Susie is very close to Rubio 0:12:28.080 --> 0:12:31.360 as well. Susie the chiefest staff. Now. Polling on the 0:12:31.440 --> 0:12:35.920 twenty twenty eight presidential race is very, very difficult because 0:12:36.000 --> 0:12:40.160 there are multiple names that are being floated in these 0:12:40.200 --> 0:12:42.680 polls who are not running, like Donald Trump Junior is 0:12:42.760 --> 0:12:45.440 not running for president. There is no reason why a 0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:48.120 pollster is throwing his name on a poll because it 0:12:48.240 --> 0:12:50.960 changes the poll's outcome. Because the polls very very high. 0:12:51.440 --> 0:12:56.079 Is the president's son, and it absolutely affects the way 0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:58.839 that these polls are coming out in the certainty of 0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:01.880 these polls, so other poles that just have the most 0:13:02.200 --> 0:13:05.960 likely contenders. Vans has a formidable twenty two thirty point 0:13:06.480 --> 0:13:09.840 lead against Rubio, who's a distance second, and then Dessanta's 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:11.840 is in third, and he's just in the high single 0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:15.280 digits in early swing states and polls like in New Hampshire, 0:13:15.280 --> 0:13:18.440 Advance is more than fifty percent. Even Rubio is not 0:13:18.440 --> 0:13:22.320 even in double digits. Now. Obviously, if Trump were to 0:13:22.520 --> 0:13:26.960 endorse Rubeo over Vans, that would change things considerably. But 0:13:27.040 --> 0:13:29.800 I have a hard time seeing that happen. And here's 0:13:29.840 --> 0:13:33.000 the reason Vans is doing fundraising for the twenty twenty 0:13:33.040 --> 0:13:37.120 six midterms. Vance is creating these independent relationships with donors. 0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:41.439 Vance is also whilst campaign isn't up and running yet, 0:13:42.320 --> 0:13:45.520 it will escalate quickly after the midterms, and it will 0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:48.720 have a lot of the infrastructure from the Trump twenty 0:13:48.800 --> 0:13:52.959 twenty four campaign on his side and Rubio. That's I 0:13:53.040 --> 0:13:55.440 think that's why Rubio has firmly said I'm not running. 0:13:55.440 --> 0:13:58.600 Advance is running now. If there's going to be some 0:13:58.720 --> 0:14:02.559 kind of upset where Rubio is shocks everybody and announces, 0:14:02.880 --> 0:14:04.920 it has to be in the next six months, because 0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:06.760 it's got to be. You have to get the jump 0:14:06.760 --> 0:14:11.520 start to create a parallel organization and kind of take 0:14:11.559 --> 0:14:13.880 over part of the Trump organization that I don't think 0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:17.080 that Advance would just give up on his own. So no, 0:14:17.160 --> 0:14:20.040 I don't think that vance is inevitable. But if you 0:14:20.120 --> 0:14:22.920 were a betting man and you're placing your house on 0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:25.840 the betting markets, you should bet on vance. That's what 0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:28.840 my opinion. Now on the Democratic side, there's so many 0:14:28.880 --> 0:14:30.880 people running it is becoming a clown car. You have 0:14:30.960 --> 0:14:34.840 Kentucky Governor Andy Basheer, Senator of from New Jersey, Corey Booker. 0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:38.240 You have Pete Buddhagjeeds. You have Rammanuel, former White House 0:14:38.240 --> 0:14:40.920 Sheep of Staff or President Obama and mayor of Chicago. 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:43.520 You have Josh Green, the governor of Hawaii. I had 0:14:43.520 --> 0:14:44.800 to look him up to I don't know who Josh 0:14:44.840 --> 0:14:47.200 Green was when I first read that he was considering running. 0:14:47.400 --> 0:14:50.360 Kamala Harris, the former Democratic nominee from twenty twenty four. 0:14:50.400 --> 0:14:54.040 Senator Mark Kelly from Arizona, Senator Ruben Gego from Arizona, 0:14:54.440 --> 0:14:58.680 Congressman Roe Connor from California, Governor Gavin Newsom from California, 0:14:58.800 --> 0:15:02.040 Congress from Alexander Cortest from New York, Centator John Auso 0:15:02.120 --> 0:15:05.840 from Georgia, Governor J. P. Pritzker from Illinois, and Governor 0:15:05.920 --> 0:15:10.320 Joshapiro from Pennsylvania. Okay, that is the people who are 0:15:10.400 --> 0:15:13.760 running on the Democratic side so far, those of the 0:15:13.840 --> 0:15:18.600 names being floated so far. Early polls at this part 0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:23.480 far out without someone sitting in office, really is about 0:15:23.560 --> 0:15:26.280 name ID and obviously Kamala Harrison Gavin Newsom have the 0:15:26.360 --> 0:15:28.200 highest name I D they have the upper hand in 0:15:28.280 --> 0:15:32.120 these polls. But what is more important than the name 0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:36.080 recognition for the Democratic nomination is the calendar. No one 0:15:36.120 --> 0:15:39.880 is talking about this. See, the Democratic primaries has changed 0:15:39.880 --> 0:15:43.440 significantly where states like Iowa and New Hampshire, which used 0:15:43.440 --> 0:15:46.360 to go first, have been pushed aside from South Carolina. 0:15:46.400 --> 0:15:48.720 The Democratic Party says they're too white, and you know, 0:15:48.760 --> 0:15:50.840 white people, if they get a voice in the Democratic Party, 0:15:50.880 --> 0:15:53.400 it's you know, that's bad news. Can't can't let a 0:15:53.440 --> 0:15:55.280 white man from the Midwest have a voice in the 0:15:55.280 --> 0:15:58.479 Democratic Party. Absolutely not allowed. So they've moved to South Carolina, 0:15:58.560 --> 0:16:03.200 which is a majority black voting population with the Democratic primary. 0:16:03.560 --> 0:16:05.480 And that is the way that most of the Deep 0:16:05.520 --> 0:16:08.680 South still is. There's something like Florida. I don't think 0:16:08.680 --> 0:16:12.000 that it's like that anymore. Texas is not like that anymore. 0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:14.560 But most of the states in the South are still 0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:20.240 black majority Democratic voting bates, and they favor candidates who 0:16:20.240 --> 0:16:23.160 are more establishment, who are more centrists, and they give 0:16:23.240 --> 0:16:27.280 the Democratic nomination. It is almost virtually impossible to win 0:16:27.320 --> 0:16:30.440 the Democratic nomination without the support of older black women 0:16:30.600 --> 0:16:34.080 in the Deep South. They nominated Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, 0:16:34.120 --> 0:16:37.400 Barack Obama, Bill Clinton. I mean only I think John Kerry, 0:16:37.400 --> 0:16:40.120 and only because John Kerry won all the states before 0:16:40.160 --> 0:16:42.120 the South, and so by that point it was just 0:16:42.200 --> 0:16:44.440 kind of cleaning up. I think he lost, you know, 0:16:44.480 --> 0:16:46.560 I think he lost North and South Carolina, but he 0:16:46.720 --> 0:16:49.240 was the only one and he was able to speak 0:16:49.240 --> 0:16:52.360 basically everywhere else. He might have lost one other state 0:16:52.520 --> 0:16:55.400 to I think maybe lost Oklahoma as well, but he 0:16:56.080 --> 0:16:59.320 basically swept the entire race very very quickly. But he 0:16:59.400 --> 0:17:04.000 was once again the only one. So you need the 0:17:04.040 --> 0:17:06.640 Deep South. You need old ladies, the black old ladies 0:17:06.720 --> 0:17:10.320 Deep South. And who they support is who the likely 0:17:10.440 --> 0:17:13.919 Democratic nominee eventually will be. They're not going to support 0:17:13.920 --> 0:17:15.639 a people to judge. They're not going to vote for 0:17:15.680 --> 0:17:18.400 a gay candidate. They're not going to support a radical 0:17:18.440 --> 0:17:20.600 left winger. They're not going to support a Bernie Sanders. 0:17:20.760 --> 0:17:24.840 They probably will not support an AOC. So that's who 0:17:24.920 --> 0:17:26.360 you have to keep an eye out for. If you're 0:17:26.359 --> 0:17:29.600 going to stare at cross poles, at crosstabs and polls, 0:17:29.960 --> 0:17:32.080 that's who you want to look at. How are black 0:17:32.160 --> 0:17:35.200 voters in the South considering who are they voting for 0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:38.879 right now? They really do like Kamala Harris still because 0:17:38.920 --> 0:17:42.080 she was the nominee, she's a black woman. We'll see 0:17:42.119 --> 0:17:44.440 if they find favor or of love with anybody else, 0:17:44.440 --> 0:17:46.600 but right now, according to the most recent pole, there's 0:17:46.640 --> 0:17:49.280 been no polls in South Carolina, but according to the 0:17:49.320 --> 0:17:52.760 most recent nationwide poles, thirty six percent of black voters 0:17:52.760 --> 0:17:55.159 say Kamala Harris and if she holds true that she 0:17:55.200 --> 0:17:58.000 could absolutely be the nominee. Again with me to discuss 0:17:58.040 --> 0:18:00.480 all things twenty twenty eight is the great journal us 0:18:00.520 --> 0:18:06.480 Mark Apprin that's coming up with me to discuss the 0:18:06.480 --> 0:18:09.720 twenty twenty eight election is legendary journalist Mark Appron of 0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:13.600 Next up with Mark Auburn and Chwo Way Fame. Thank 0:18:13.600 --> 0:18:14.560 you so much for coming on. 0:18:14.520 --> 0:18:17.159 Mark, honor to be here, sir, Thank you for inkluing 0:18:17.240 --> 0:18:17.560 so Mark. 0:18:17.600 --> 0:18:20.040 The question I get all the time, and I had 0:18:20.160 --> 0:18:23.439 asked literally once a week is is JD. Vance inevitable? 0:18:24.800 --> 0:18:26.160 What is your opinion on that? 0:18:26.800 --> 0:18:29.520 I thought he was, and now I don't. I think 0:18:29.600 --> 0:18:32.480 the three things have happened and make him short of inevitable. 0:18:32.480 --> 0:18:35.680 He's still the base case, I think. Still the most 0:18:35.760 --> 0:18:39.479 likely outcome, probably still by far, is that he decides 0:18:39.520 --> 0:18:42.040 to run, the President endorses him, and he's the nominee 0:18:42.359 --> 0:18:46.040 by consensus and probably runs with Marco Rubio. But three 0:18:46.040 --> 0:18:48.280 things have happened. First of all, the rise of Rubio, 0:18:48.560 --> 0:18:52.080 just the groundswell of interest in in and support of him, 0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:55.440 and the belief amongst many stakeholders that Rubio would be 0:18:55.520 --> 0:19:00.280 a better nominee is pretty big. So that's number one. 0:19:00.440 --> 0:19:03.600 Number two, Vance has rubbed some people the wrong way, 0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:06.920 and his public appearances and his private meetings with donors. 0:19:07.400 --> 0:19:10.639 He's just went from a run of nine months or 0:19:10.680 --> 0:19:14.000 so of extreme popularity and being extremely well received, and 0:19:14.040 --> 0:19:17.760 now some people having questions about his personality and about 0:19:18.080 --> 0:19:22.199 his failure to repudiate people like Tucker Carlson, so some 0:19:22.320 --> 0:19:26.320 doubts about him. And then, lastly, as it's become a 0:19:26.480 --> 0:19:29.399 kind of a possibility that it won't be Vance, whether 0:19:29.440 --> 0:19:33.200 Ted Cruz runs or other people run, just a sentiment 0:19:33.240 --> 0:19:35.240 of he needs to earn this, that it wouldn't be 0:19:35.240 --> 0:19:37.800 in the party's interest, and it wouldn't be right to 0:19:37.880 --> 0:19:40.240 simply hand him the nomination, and that there should be 0:19:40.760 --> 0:19:43.720 whatever needs to happen to make it a competitive process 0:19:43.840 --> 0:19:46.480 needs to happen. So those three things have combined to 0:19:46.560 --> 0:19:49.040 make me pull back from my view that it was 0:19:49.080 --> 0:19:50.359 a mortal locke for Vance. 0:19:50.920 --> 0:19:52.639 Well, I mean, Ted Cruz is going to run no 0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:54.760 matter what. Ted Cruz thinks that he's got a contract 0:19:54.800 --> 0:19:56.760 with Jesus Christ to be president one day. That is, 0:19:56.960 --> 0:20:00.960 you know this vision from above. I don't care who's 0:20:01.040 --> 0:20:03.080 running with Siza, and there's other people who want to run. 0:20:03.080 --> 0:20:05.000 I know Ron de Santas has made phone calls. I 0:20:05.080 --> 0:20:07.359 know that Brian Camp has made phone calls. There are 0:20:07.400 --> 0:20:09.720 people who have that dream of the presidency hasn't loss 0:20:09.800 --> 0:20:12.720 upon him. But there is a belief among people in 0:20:12.800 --> 0:20:15.879 Vance camp that there shouldn't that the vice president shouldn't 0:20:15.880 --> 0:20:17.679 even be on a debate stage with anybody else, that 0:20:17.680 --> 0:20:21.240 he should be running by himself. Is that you think 0:20:21.320 --> 0:20:23.920 the wrong opinion to make among Republican voters. 0:20:25.400 --> 0:20:28.000 Well, it's a long time before voters have a say 0:20:28.000 --> 0:20:29.800 in this, and I think I still think that there's 0:20:29.840 --> 0:20:32.199 a chance to Mansel decide with his young children not 0:20:32.240 --> 0:20:35.159 to run. I just wouldn't rule that out. But if 0:20:35.200 --> 0:20:37.800 he decides to run, I find it hard to believe 0:20:37.800 --> 0:20:40.480 that he wouldn't get the president's endorsement. And then the 0:20:40.560 --> 0:20:43.159 question is, is the RNC finance share, which is a 0:20:43.440 --> 0:20:46.560 unique slot, would be given to an incumbent vice president 0:20:46.560 --> 0:20:50.199 with presidential ambitions as someone who still retains an extraordinary 0:20:50.280 --> 0:20:53.000 amount of goodwill within the party is the front runner 0:20:53.000 --> 0:20:55.800 in the polls. I think he'd win every element of 0:20:55.840 --> 0:20:59.680 the invisible primary well before any votes were cast, So 0:21:02.400 --> 0:21:04.680 that's what would lead him to get Trump's endorsement. And 0:21:04.760 --> 0:21:07.879 I think to largely clear the field again, well before 0:21:07.920 --> 0:21:12.840 anybody voter to voters, to voters eventually, if he refused 0:21:12.880 --> 0:21:15.920 to debate, if he didn't clear the field, would they care? Maybe? 0:21:16.280 --> 0:21:18.520 But I think the question will largely be answered before 0:21:18.640 --> 0:21:19.320 voters cast. 0:21:19.680 --> 0:21:22.760 Why is van Why is Trump asking about Rubio all 0:21:22.760 --> 0:21:25.160 of a sudden? Does does Trump all of a sudden 0:21:25.240 --> 0:21:27.240 have a feeling like he's not as strong or that 0:21:27.440 --> 0:21:28.440 Rubio is so great? 0:21:29.640 --> 0:21:33.119 I'm an expert in politics and campaigns and government, not 0:21:33.200 --> 0:21:37.359 in psychology, but I'll do my best. I think he 0:21:37.920 --> 0:21:40.639 you know, he loves central casting, you know the concept 0:21:40.720 --> 0:21:43.359