1 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a Numbers game with Ryan Groski. Thank 2 00:00:05,320 --> 00:00:08,119 Speaker 1: you all for being here. I want to say Happy 3 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:10,680 Speaker 1: Saint Patrick's Day and recording this the day before, so 4 00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: it is Saint Patrick's Day as the recording of this, 5 00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:16,640 Speaker 1: and I want to wish everyone who is of Irish 6 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:20,639 Speaker 1: ancestry or who has Irish ancestry. I meant to say, 7 00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:23,680 Speaker 1: who has Irish ancestry like myself, a very happy Saint 8 00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:26,800 Speaker 1: Patrick Day. I hope you all celebrate being Irish, really 9 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 1: being Irish, which apparently the President of Ireland and the 10 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 1: Prime Minister of Ireland do not share my joy of 11 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 1: the history of the Celtic people. I don't know if 12 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:39,960 Speaker 1: if anyone saw it, but Michael Martin, the Prime Minister 13 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:44,519 Speaker 1: of Ireland, was in Washington on Saint Patrick's Day. I 14 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:47,519 Speaker 1: attended an event in the morning with Vice President of Advance. 15 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 1: There was a prayer. President Advance blessed himself. Michael Martin 16 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 1: didn't because the Irish politicians are allergic to being Catholic 17 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 1: or having Catholic ancestry and lineage to them. Then sat 18 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:01,440 Speaker 1: with President Trump and nod how Ireland has just been 19 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:04,839 Speaker 1: thriving because of mass immigration. One in four people living 20 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:08,000 Speaker 1: in Ireland now is an immigrant. They've opened the floodgates 21 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 1: across the country to Ireland and to the Middle East, 22 00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:15,480 Speaker 1: and it's doing wonders for petty theft and for housing prices. 23 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 1: And you know there's Irish citizens rogue, Irish citizens burning 24 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:22,679 Speaker 1: down asylum hotels. He mentions none of that. He says 25 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:25,959 Speaker 1: it's right with the economy is thriving. And Trump, to 26 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:28,080 Speaker 1: his credit, actually did push back and said a lot 27 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 1: of problems are coming with it. And then over in 28 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:34,200 Speaker 1: Ireland you had the new Irish president, Catherine Connolly, who 29 00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:38,039 Speaker 1: wore black, refused to call Saint Patrick Saint Patrick. She's 30 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:40,679 Speaker 1: called him Patrick as if she was his drinking buddy, 31 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:44,840 Speaker 1: and then talked about how it's really a day about migration. 32 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 1: For those who don't know the history of Saint Patrick. 33 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 1: He was a slave. He wasn't a migrant. It is 34 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:54,680 Speaker 1: an insult to call a he was a slave. I mean, 35 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 1: it was no migration, there was no passport. He went there. 36 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 1: He was forcibly brought to Ireland, but did great things 37 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 1: with his time there. And it's absolutely in furi The 38 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:10,800 Speaker 1: Irish politicians who govern that country are embarrassments. I know, 39 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 1: I have a few Irish listeners. I have relatives who 40 00:02:13,360 --> 00:02:15,920 Speaker 1: live in County Cork, I have relatives who live in Belfast. 41 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:22,080 Speaker 1: It's an embarrassment. It's the most embarrassing politicians of any 42 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 1: country in Europe. And England has Cure Starmer. That just 43 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:30,040 Speaker 1: goes to show how badly Ireland has fallen on its times. 44 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 1: And Ireland is the last country in all of Europe, 45 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 1: to Western Europe especially not to have an effective populist 46 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 1: party pushing back in immigration. I know there's the Independence 47 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 1: Ireland Party, but they're very small, they're very minor. They're 48 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:45,119 Speaker 1: trying to get it together. They only have I think 49 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:50,079 Speaker 1: three seats in their parliament, not enough to have any 50 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:52,919 Speaker 1: kind of effective governing. And the three major parties all 51 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 1: believe in the same thing, which is the erasure of 52 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 1: Irish history, of Irish people in Irish culture. Absolutely horror, 53 00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:05,520 Speaker 1: especially on a day to celebrate the resilience of the 54 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 1: Irish people and all that Ireland gave the world. I mean, 55 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:13,120 Speaker 1: it's absolutely astonishing. And you know, it's so funny. There 56 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:16,079 Speaker 1: was an app on I see the ads on Instagram 57 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:18,080 Speaker 1: all the time. It's a history app. I don't know 58 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:20,359 Speaker 1: the name of it, but they one day talked about 59 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:23,359 Speaker 1: the two hundred thousand Irish orphans that were shipped to 60 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:27,800 Speaker 1: America and used basically as slave labor, and Irish slavery, 61 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:29,960 Speaker 1: which has never talked about in his own country. And 62 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 1: the endurance of the Irish people to survive is by 63 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 1: famine and really horrific treatment, and now their politicians are 64 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 1: willing to wipe that all away in the name of diversity. 65 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:45,000 Speaker 1: They have traded hatred for the English for hatred for themselves. 66 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 1: And to quote a short lived poem by Patrick Pierce, 67 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 1: I am come of the seed of the people, the 68 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 1: people of that sorrow, that have no treasure, but hope, 69 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 1: no riches, laid a memory of an ancient glory. My 70 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 1: mother bore me into bondage, and as my mother was born, 71 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:03,640 Speaker 1: I come of the seat of the people, the people 72 00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 1: that sorrow. There's no reason Irish people to have any 73 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:12,120 Speaker 1: sense of guilt whatsoever, or to destroy their heritage and 74 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 1: their country by flooding it with migrants from across the world. 75 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 1: Ireland needs, you know, a place for the Irish. It 76 00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:23,600 Speaker 1: is what it is anyway. I'm not an Irish citizen. 77 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 1: I don't know why I care so much. I think 78 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 1: it's because the Irish heritage, and I have relatives named Seamus, 79 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:33,159 Speaker 1: so I mean, you get about Irish as it gets, 80 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 1: and just to see that just our collective ancestry being 81 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:41,920 Speaker 1: washed away. Okay, enough about Ireland, let's talk about America. 82 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 1: I am. I know what you're all thinking right now. 83 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:50,719 Speaker 1: You're all thinking, Ryan, you were right again? How did 84 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:53,599 Speaker 1: you know? How'd you do it? And you're probably all saying, 85 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 1: what are you talking about? So I set a month 86 00:04:56,920 --> 00:05:00,719 Speaker 1: ago on this podcast that Hakem Jeffrey is going to 87 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:03,279 Speaker 1: quickly wake up and realize that if he has a 88 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:06,920 Speaker 1: House majority in January, it will be the house that 89 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders built. Bernie Sanders and progressive activists who love 90 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 1: Bernie have been winning primaries across the country. They are 91 00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 1: changing the face of the Democratic Party, and a lot 92 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:23,280 Speaker 1: of them not big fans of Hakeem Jeffries, and they're 93 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 1: increasingly saying they're unsure if they're going to support him 94 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 1: for House Speaker. Axios. That's what I said a month ago. 95 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:32,280 Speaker 1: Now Axis is out with a new report that had 96 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:36,680 Speaker 1: a number of Democratic candidates coming forward and saying they 97 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:38,920 Speaker 1: are unsure who the next Speaker will be that they're 98 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 1: not gung ho for Hakim. This is the quint of 99 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:45,320 Speaker 1: axious Why it matters. It is a stark reversal from Jefferies' 100 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:48,840 Speaker 1: virtual untouchable standing in the Democratic Party just a few 101 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:50,839 Speaker 1: years ago, and a sign that has passed the speaker 102 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 1: may be rockier then previously thought. Jeffries and his allies 103 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 1: maintained there's not a remotely worried about a massed affection, 104 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:01,920 Speaker 1: pointing out that even the minority, he has endured twenty 105 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:05,159 Speaker 1: speaker ballots and hasn't lost a Democratic vote. But this 106 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:08,080 Speaker 1: crop of freshmen may provide the first chink in here 107 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:11,919 Speaker 1: two four impenetrable armor, with a block of genuinely viable 108 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 1: candidates making clear that voting for Jeffries as Speaker is 109 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 1: not a given if the Democrats take the House. As 110 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:22,159 Speaker 1: of now, there are eighty candidates running for a Congress 111 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 1: this year who say they are not committed to backing Jeffries. 112 00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 1: That is not a small number. Especially Democrats find themselves 113 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:32,919 Speaker 1: in the same place that Kevin McCarthy did a couple 114 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:35,279 Speaker 1: of years ago. You have a majority, it's not a 115 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:38,040 Speaker 1: huge majority. What do you do A couple of defections 116 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:41,280 Speaker 1: means you have to concede a lot of things to them. 117 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:46,600 Speaker 1: It means you're not guaranteed to get the speakership. And 118 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:50,040 Speaker 1: in the era of Trump two point zero term two 119 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 1: point zero, there is a lot of belief among rank 120 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:57,560 Speaker 1: and not rank Bible but activist Democrats the Democratic Party 121 00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 1: is not doing enough to fight the Orange Man right 122 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:05,320 Speaker 1: that the Democrats have gone along with funding the government 123 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 1: that they've gone along with other things that they should 124 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 1: have been doing more whatever it is more, I don't know. 125 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 1: I think some Democrat activists would have wanted the Democrats 126 00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 1: to shut down the government of day one. They possibly 127 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 1: could have and kept the government shut down all four years. 128 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 1: And Jeffries hasn't gone along with that because being leader 129 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:26,000 Speaker 1: means you have to govern responsibly, So no surprise that 130 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:29,600 Speaker 1: he didn't do that. What Jeffries has going for him 131 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:31,720 Speaker 1: is the same thing that McCarthy had going for me 132 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:37,680 Speaker 1: is that there's no central opposition. Pelosi faced opposition a 133 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 1: few times while she was Speaker, but there was a 134 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 1: person running against her. There was a guy who running 135 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:44,240 Speaker 1: against her and saying I'm going to be the opposition. 136 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:47,640 Speaker 1: They always lost, but there was someone to rally troops 137 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 1: against Pelosi. There is no one rallying troops against Jeffrey's 138 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:56,360 Speaker 1: like there's no one reallyships against McCarthy. They may be 139 00:07:56,440 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 1: someone saying I don't want him to be in power, 140 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 1: but there's no no one's saying vote for me instead, 141 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 1: which is important. Matt Gateston on McCarthy. But they didn't 142 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:07,360 Speaker 1: find a consensus candidate. Wasn't like Gates himself was being 143 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:12,080 Speaker 1: presented as a choice for speaker. There was nobody. It 144 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:15,960 Speaker 1: was either McCarthy or nobody. And they're kind of having 145 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:17,960 Speaker 1: the same situation with the Democratic Party right now. They 146 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:21,960 Speaker 1: don't have a singular person offering a progressive vision who 147 00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 1: could raise money, because that's a big part of the 148 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 1: job is who can raise money. And the truth is 149 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:32,120 Speaker 1: you can't beat somebody with nobody, unless AOC or someone 150 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:35,720 Speaker 1: like that who has the belief, the support, the troops, 151 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:38,800 Speaker 1: the money, and I can't with this money is very 152 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:42,640 Speaker 1: important for the speaker. You're not going to find somebody 153 00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 1: kind of break Hakeem Jefferies' lock on the Democratic Party. 154 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:49,840 Speaker 1: So Haqem is safe right now, but things are dicey 155 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 1: and if they don't get their way or they kept blank, 156 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:55,920 Speaker 1: or they cave one or two times, and they have 157 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:58,680 Speaker 1: a small majority, it's going to be very very dicey 158 00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:02,960 Speaker 1: for Jeffries going anyway. That's my little nod to my 159 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 1: audience telling I told you guys, I was ahead of 160 00:09:05,520 --> 00:09:07,960 Speaker 1: the curb. I knew what was happening, and I think 161 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 1: this is going to be a long term issue for 162 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 1: Hikim Jeffreys and whoever governs the Democrats in the House. 163 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 1: The Democrats are going to act a lot more like 164 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 1: the Republicans in the House when it comes to being 165 00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:20,360 Speaker 1: less orderly. Now, I want to talk about something else 166 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 1: that people think is very far into the future, but 167 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:25,960 Speaker 1: it's actually only a few months away, and that is 168 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:28,640 Speaker 1: the twenty twenty eight presidential election. I know some of 169 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:31,240 Speaker 1: you are like Ryan, that's four years away. No, it's not. 170 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 1: The first candidates who will announce their run for the 171 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 1: White House will happen within the next nine months. Basically, 172 00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:42,040 Speaker 1: you will have you could have a baby if you 173 00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 1: get pregnant today, and you will have a Democrat running 174 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:47,760 Speaker 1: for president or a Republican running for president by the 175 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 1: time that baby is born. It's not a long time 176 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 1: left before we're entering into the twenty twenty eight presidential cycle, 177 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 1: and there's two things. There's two essential questions, which is 178 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 1: one is JD Evans inevitable on the Republican side and 179 00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:05,959 Speaker 1: who is the most likely candidate on the Democratic side. 180 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:10,120 Speaker 1: Let's go into the Republican side first. I get messages 181 00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:15,200 Speaker 1: about JD literally every single week from somebody saying, you know, 182 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 1: is the nomination process really over? What has he done 183 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:21,520 Speaker 1: to deserve the nomination? Is he ready to be president? 184 00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 1: Can we nominate someone else? Or is somebody else going 185 00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:29,440 Speaker 1: to run? Let me answer the last question first, Is 186 00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 1: someone else going to run? Yes, other people are going 187 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:36,000 Speaker 1: to run. Ted Cruz is almost definitely running for president. 188 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:38,080 Speaker 1: You know, he believes that he's got some kind of 189 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 1: compact with God where he ends up being president one day. 190 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:43,959 Speaker 1: He's almost destined. He's got this, you know, destined from 191 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:48,160 Speaker 1: from Christ himself to be president United States side. Note, 192 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:51,400 Speaker 1: you guys remember when he picked Carly Fiorini as his 193 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:54,840 Speaker 1: vice presidential candidate and they kind of grass hands and 194 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:56,520 Speaker 1: missed each other's hands at the rally. I don't know 195 00:10:56,559 --> 00:11:00,160 Speaker 1: why that kind of flashed in my memory as I 196 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 1: was recalling Ted Cruz running for president, but it did. 197 00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:06,719 Speaker 1: I've also heard rumors that Brian Kemp, Governor Georgia, is 198 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:09,640 Speaker 1: strongly considering a run. Ron to Santa's governor Florida is 199 00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:13,119 Speaker 1: considering a run. I've heard Josh Holly, the Senator from Missouri, 200 00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:17,199 Speaker 1: is asking questions. Ram Paul says that he's exploring his options. 201 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:20,680 Speaker 1: He's the senator from Kentucky. Steve Bannon, I've heard for 202 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:23,760 Speaker 1: a while wanted to run. But the Epstein stuff, the 203 00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:26,240 Speaker 1: idea that he made this video tape with Epstein, not 204 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 1: not those kinds of tapes, but a different kind of 205 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 1: tape with Epstein and was interviewing him and never released 206 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:35,120 Speaker 1: the footage and could have been very complimentary for Epstein, 207 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 1: possibly in the footage. Whatever the case may be, I heard, 208 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 1: it's really hurt his potential of running. There's other people 209 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:44,680 Speaker 1: who want to run but don't really have a lane. 210 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:47,839 Speaker 1: Telsea Gabbard I heard, is interested but doesn't know if 211 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:50,040 Speaker 1: she has got a lane. R Okay Junior very much 212 00:11:50,160 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 1: wants to make a run for something and doesn't know 213 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 1: if he has a lane. And then there's the nine 214 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 1: hundred pounds elephant in the room, which is Mark or Rubio. 215 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:03,360 Speaker 1: Now Rubio has been doing optionally good job as Secretary 216 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 1: of State, and everyone has taken notice, including the president, 217 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:10,320 Speaker 1: and it's clear that Rubio is having an effect on 218 00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 1: the President's thinking when it comes to foreign policy. According 219 00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 1: to several reports, President Trump has asked multile people if 220 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:20,320 Speaker 1: he should endure Vance or Rubia for president, and at 221 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:22,640 Speaker 1: least one report said that a lot of donors really 222 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:25,080 Speaker 1: do love Rubio. They love Rubia Moore. Also, I want 223 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:28,079 Speaker 1: to point out that Susie is very close to Rubio 224 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 1: as well. Susie the chiefest staff. Now. Polling on the 225 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:35,920 Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight presidential race is very, very difficult because 226 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:40,160 Speaker 1: there are multiple names that are being floated in these 227 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:42,680 Speaker 1: polls who are not running, like Donald Trump Junior is 228 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:45,440 Speaker 1: not running for president. There is no reason why a 229 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:48,120 Speaker 1: pollster is throwing his name on a poll because it 230 00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:50,960 Speaker 1: changes the poll's outcome. Because the polls very very high. 231 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:56,079 Speaker 1: Is the president's son, and it absolutely affects the way 232 00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:58,839 Speaker 1: that these polls are coming out in the certainty of 233 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:01,880 Speaker 1: these polls, so other poles that just have the most 234 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:05,960 Speaker 1: likely contenders. Vans has a formidable twenty two thirty point 235 00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 1: lead against Rubio, who's a distance second, and then Dessanta's 236 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:11,840 Speaker 1: is in third, and he's just in the high single 237 00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 1: digits in early swing states and polls like in New Hampshire, 238 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:18,440 Speaker 1: Advance is more than fifty percent. Even Rubio is not 239 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:22,320 Speaker 1: even in double digits. Now. Obviously, if Trump were to 240 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:26,960 Speaker 1: endorse Rubeo over Vans, that would change things considerably. But 241 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:29,800 Speaker 1: I have a hard time seeing that happen. And here's 242 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:33,000 Speaker 1: the reason Vans is doing fundraising for the twenty twenty 243 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 1: six midterms. Vance is creating these independent relationships with donors. 244 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:41,439 Speaker 1: Vance is also whilst campaign isn't up and running yet, 245 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 1: it will escalate quickly after the midterms, and it will 246 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:48,720 Speaker 1: have a lot of the infrastructure from the Trump twenty 247 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:52,959 Speaker 1: twenty four campaign on his side and Rubio. That's I 248 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:55,440 Speaker 1: think that's why Rubio has firmly said I'm not running. 249 00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:58,600 Speaker 1: Advance is running now. If there's going to be some 250 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:02,559 Speaker 1: kind of upset where Rubio is shocks everybody and announces, 251 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:04,920 Speaker 1: it has to be in the next six months, because 252 00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 1: it's got to be. You have to get the jump 253 00:14:06,760 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 1: start to create a parallel organization and kind of take 254 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 1: over part of the Trump organization that I don't think 255 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:17,080 Speaker 1: that Advance would just give up on his own. So no, 256 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 1: I don't think that vance is inevitable. But if you 257 00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:22,920 Speaker 1: were a betting man and you're placing your house on 258 00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 1: the betting markets, you should bet on vance. That's what 259 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 1: my opinion. Now on the Democratic side, there's so many 260 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:30,880 Speaker 1: people running it is becoming a clown car. You have 261 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:34,840 Speaker 1: Kentucky Governor Andy Basheer, Senator of from New Jersey, Corey Booker. 262 00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 1: You have Pete Buddhagjeeds. You have Rammanuel, former White House 263 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:40,920 Speaker 1: Sheep of Staff or President Obama and mayor of Chicago. 264 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:43,520 Speaker 1: You have Josh Green, the governor of Hawaii. I had 265 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 1: to look him up to I don't know who Josh 266 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:47,200 Speaker 1: Green was when I first read that he was considering running. 267 00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:50,360 Speaker 1: Kamala Harris, the former Democratic nominee from twenty twenty four. 268 00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:54,040 Speaker 1: Senator Mark Kelly from Arizona, Senator Ruben Gego from Arizona, 269 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 1: Congressman Roe Connor from California, Governor Gavin Newsom from California, 270 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 1: Congress from Alexander Cortest from New York, Centator John Auso 271 00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:05,840 Speaker 1: from Georgia, Governor J. P. Pritzker from Illinois, and Governor 272 00:15:05,920 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 1: Joshapiro from Pennsylvania. Okay, that is the people who are 273 00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:13,760 Speaker 1: running on the Democratic side so far, those of the 274 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:18,600 Speaker 1: names being floated so far. Early polls at this part 275 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:23,480 Speaker 1: far out without someone sitting in office, really is about 276 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:26,280 Speaker 1: name ID and obviously Kamala Harrison Gavin Newsom have the 277 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:28,200 Speaker 1: highest name I D they have the upper hand in 278 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 1: these polls. But what is more important than the name 279 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:36,080 Speaker 1: recognition for the Democratic nomination is the calendar. No one 280 00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:39,880 Speaker 1: is talking about this. See, the Democratic primaries has changed 281 00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:43,440 Speaker 1: significantly where states like Iowa and New Hampshire, which used 282 00:15:43,440 --> 00:15:46,360 Speaker 1: to go first, have been pushed aside from South Carolina. 283 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 1: The Democratic Party says they're too white, and you know, 284 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 1: white people, if they get a voice in the Democratic Party, 285 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 1: it's you know, that's bad news. Can't can't let a 286 00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 1: white man from the Midwest have a voice in the 287 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:58,479 Speaker 1: Democratic Party. Absolutely not allowed. So they've moved to South Carolina, 288 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 1: which is a majority black voting population with the Democratic primary. 289 00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:05,480 Speaker 1: And that is the way that most of the Deep 290 00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:08,680 Speaker 1: South still is. There's something like Florida. I don't think 291 00:16:08,680 --> 00:16:12,000 Speaker 1: that it's like that anymore. Texas is not like that anymore. 292 00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 1: But most of the states in the South are still 293 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 1: black majority Democratic voting bates, and they favor candidates who 294 00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:23,160 Speaker 1: are more establishment, who are more centrists, and they give 295 00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:27,280 Speaker 1: the Democratic nomination. It is almost virtually impossible to win 296 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 1: the Democratic nomination without the support of older black women 297 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:34,080 Speaker 1: in the Deep South. They nominated Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, 298 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:37,400 Speaker 1: Barack Obama, Bill Clinton. I mean only I think John Kerry, 299 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 1: and only because John Kerry won all the states before 300 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 1: the South, and so by that point it was just 301 00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 1: kind of cleaning up. I think he lost, you know, 302 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:46,560 Speaker 1: I think he lost North and South Carolina, but he 303 00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:49,240 Speaker 1: was the only one and he was able to speak 304 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:52,360 Speaker 1: basically everywhere else. He might have lost one other state 305 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:55,400 Speaker 1: to I think maybe lost Oklahoma as well, but he 306 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 1: basically swept the entire race very very quickly. But he 307 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:04,000 Speaker 1: was once again the only one. So you need the 308 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:06,640 Speaker 1: Deep South. You need old ladies, the black old ladies 309 00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:10,320 Speaker 1: Deep South. And who they support is who the likely 310 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:13,919 Speaker 1: Democratic nominee eventually will be. They're not going to support 311 00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:15,639 Speaker 1: a people to judge. They're not going to vote for 312 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:18,400 Speaker 1: a gay candidate. They're not going to support a radical 313 00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:20,600 Speaker 1: left winger. They're not going to support a Bernie Sanders. 314 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:24,840 Speaker 1: They probably will not support an AOC. So that's who 315 00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:26,360 Speaker 1: you have to keep an eye out for. If you're 316 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:29,600 Speaker 1: going to stare at cross poles, at crosstabs and polls, 317 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:32,080 Speaker 1: that's who you want to look at. How are black 318 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:35,200 Speaker 1: voters in the South considering who are they voting for 319 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:38,879 Speaker 1: right now? They really do like Kamala Harris still because 320 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 1: she was the nominee, she's a black woman. We'll see 321 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:44,440 Speaker 1: if they find favor or of love with anybody else, 322 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 1: but right now, according to the most recent pole, there's 323 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:49,280 Speaker 1: been no polls in South Carolina, but according to the 324 00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:52,760 Speaker 1: most recent nationwide poles, thirty six percent of black voters 325 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:55,159 Speaker 1: say Kamala Harris and if she holds true that she 326 00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:58,000 Speaker 1: could absolutely be the nominee. Again with me to discuss 327 00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:00,480 Speaker 1: all things twenty twenty eight is the great journal us 328 00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:06,480 Speaker 1: Mark Apprin that's coming up with me to discuss the 329 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:09,720 Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight election is legendary journalist Mark Appron of 330 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:13,600 Speaker 1: Next up with Mark Auburn and Chwo Way Fame. Thank 331 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:14,560 Speaker 1: you so much for coming on. 332 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:17,159 Speaker 2: Mark, honor to be here, sir, Thank you for inkluing 333 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:17,560 Speaker 2: so Mark. 334 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 1: The question I get all the time, and I had 335 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:23,439 Speaker 1: asked literally once a week is is JD. Vance inevitable? 336 00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:26,160 Speaker 1: What is your opinion on that? 337 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:29,520 Speaker 2: I thought he was, and now I don't. I think 338 00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:32,480 Speaker 2: the three things have happened and make him short of inevitable. 339 00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:35,680 Speaker 2: He's still the base case, I think. Still the most 340 00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:39,479 Speaker 2: likely outcome, probably still by far, is that he decides 341 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 2: to run, the President endorses him, and he's the nominee 342 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 2: by consensus and probably runs with Marco Rubio. But three 343 00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:48,280 Speaker 2: things have happened. First of all, the rise of Rubio, 344 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 2: just the groundswell of interest in in and support of him, 345 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:55,440 Speaker 2: and the belief amongst many stakeholders that Rubio would be 346 00:18:55,520 --> 00:19:00,280 Speaker 2: a better nominee is pretty big. So that's number one. 347 00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 2: Number two, Vance has rubbed some people the wrong way, 348 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:06,920 Speaker 2: and his public appearances and his private meetings with donors. 349 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:10,639 Speaker 2: He's just went from a run of nine months or 350 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:14,000 Speaker 2: so of extreme popularity and being extremely well received, and 351 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:17,760 Speaker 2: now some people having questions about his personality and about 352 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:22,199 Speaker 2: his failure to repudiate people like Tucker Carlson, so some 353 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:26,320 Speaker 2: doubts about him. And then, lastly, as it's become a 354 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:29,399 Speaker 2: kind of a possibility that it won't be Vance, whether 355 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:33,200 Speaker 2: Ted Cruz runs or other people run, just a sentiment 356 00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:35,240 Speaker 2: of he needs to earn this, that it wouldn't be 357 00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:37,800 Speaker 2: in the party's interest, and it wouldn't be right to 358 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:40,240 Speaker 2: simply hand him the nomination, and that there should be 359 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:43,720 Speaker 2: whatever needs to happen to make it a competitive process 360 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:46,480 Speaker 2: needs to happen. So those three things have combined to 361 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 2: make me pull back from my view that it was 362 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:50,359 Speaker 2: a mortal locke for Vance. 363 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:52,639 Speaker 1: Well, I mean, Ted Cruz is going to run no 364 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:54,760 Speaker 1: matter what. Ted Cruz thinks that he's got a contract 365 00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 1: with Jesus Christ to be president one day. That is, 366 00:19:56,960 --> 00:20:00,960 Speaker 1: you know this vision from above. I don't care who's 367 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:03,080 Speaker 1: running with Siza, and there's other people who want to run. 368 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:05,000 Speaker 1: I know Ron de Santas has made phone calls. I 369 00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:07,359 Speaker 1: know that Brian Camp has made phone calls. There are 370 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:09,720 Speaker 1: people who have that dream of the presidency hasn't loss 371 00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:12,720 Speaker 1: upon him. But there is a belief among people in 372 00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:15,879 Speaker 1: Vance camp that there shouldn't that the vice president shouldn't 373 00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:17,679 Speaker 1: even be on a debate stage with anybody else, that 374 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 1: he should be running by himself. Is that you think 375 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:23,920 Speaker 1: the wrong opinion to make among Republican voters. 376 00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 2: Well, it's a long time before voters have a say 377 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:29,800 Speaker 2: in this, and I think I still think that there's 378 00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:32,199 Speaker 2: a chance to Mansel decide with his young children not 379 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,159 Speaker 2: to run. I just wouldn't rule that out. But if 380 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 2: he decides to run, I find it hard to believe 381 00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:40,480 Speaker 2: that he wouldn't get the president's endorsement. And then the 382 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:43,159 Speaker 2: question is, is the RNC finance share, which is a 383 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 2: unique slot, would be given to an incumbent vice president 384 00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:50,199 Speaker 2: with presidential ambitions as someone who still retains an extraordinary 385 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:53,000 Speaker 2: amount of goodwill within the party is the front runner 386 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 2: in the polls. I think he'd win every element of 387 00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:59,680 Speaker 2: the invisible primary well before any votes were cast, So 388 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:04,680 Speaker 2: that's what would lead him to get Trump's endorsement. And 389 00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:07,879 Speaker 2: I think to largely clear the field again, well before 390 00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:12,840 Speaker 2: anybody voter to voters, to voters eventually, if he refused 391 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:15,920 Speaker 2: to debate, if he didn't clear the field, would they care? Maybe? 392 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 2: But I think the question will largely be answered before 393 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:19,320 Speaker 2: voters cast. 394 00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:22,760 Speaker 1: Why is van Why is Trump asking about Rubio all 395 00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:25,160 Speaker 1: of a sudden? Does does Trump all of a sudden 396 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 1: have a feeling like he's not as strong or that 397 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:28,440 Speaker 1: Rubio is so great? 398 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:33,119 Speaker 2: I'm an expert in politics and campaigns and government, not 399 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:37,359 Speaker 2: in psychology, but I'll do my best. I think he 400 00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:40,639 Speaker 2: you know, he loves central casting, you know the concept 401 00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,359 Speaker 2: of central casting. He loves people who do well on TV, 402 00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:47,239 Speaker 2: and he's fascinated by kind of an anthropology. Right, So 403 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:49,600 Speaker 2: I think he thinks it's interesting how often he hears 404 00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:52,480 Speaker 2: from people at mar A Lago and members of Congress 405 00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:55,119 Speaker 2: and people reporters who he talks to. I have Rubio 406 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 2: is kind of awesome? Is in Rubyo asome? He thinks, well, 407 00:21:57,600 --> 00:21:59,959 Speaker 2: that's interesting. Why are people talking so much about how 408 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:03,440 Speaker 2: awesome Rubio is? Then I think, you know, as much 409 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:07,520 Speaker 2: as he may want to anoint Vance, eventually, you know, 410 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:10,399 Speaker 2: he likes competition. He likes to put scorpions in a 411 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 2: bottle and or you know, go to the Bronx to 412 00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 2: a cock fight and see people hammer each other, and 413 00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:20,160 Speaker 2: then you know, again he's a pretty sophisticated TV producer. 414 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:23,720 Speaker 2: He sees what I see, which is Vance has had 415 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:27,440 Speaker 2: some less than surefooted moments in public and Rubio has 416 00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:30,920 Speaker 2: not of late. So probably all those things just make 417 00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:33,320 Speaker 2: him want to make mischief. And he knows that even 418 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,400 Speaker 2: if he's his thought is you know, if I'm right 419 00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 2: then eventually he's going to endorse Vance. There's no cost 420 00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:41,879 Speaker 2: to doing this now, and probably he sees an upside 421 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:44,639 Speaker 2: that Advance should have some competition, because if he endorsed 422 00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:46,400 Speaker 2: Vance right away, or if he only said nice things 423 00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:49,760 Speaker 2: about Advance, I think he probably believes Vance would get 424 00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 2: to the general election without any sort of test. And 425 00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:57,159 Speaker 2: as you know, often candidates who have rough nomination fights 426 00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,439 Speaker 2: go into the general election a lot more battle tested 427 00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:03,400 Speaker 2: and ready for the fight. Then if they if they 428 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:04,560 Speaker 2: cruise the nomination. 429 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 1: Also, he does create the situation where he really is 430 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,919 Speaker 1: a lame duck once there's a nominator follow It is 431 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,960 Speaker 1: a certain sight. You know. Steve Bannon once said if 432 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:15,800 Speaker 1: Trump would be the last president ever, that would be 433 00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 1: his dream like because he really would never want that 434 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:22,680 Speaker 1: to happen. And then and last part of this before 435 00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:26,000 Speaker 1: we go on is, you know, the Tucker Carlson correlation 436 00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:29,000 Speaker 1: with Vance is what I hear about so often, particularly 437 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:33,400 Speaker 1: from Jewish friends of mine, Jewish political activist, Jewish donors. 438 00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:36,840 Speaker 1: I think it is really actually haunting him with a 439 00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:40,320 Speaker 1: certain segment of the population that can't be understated. I mean, 440 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:42,920 Speaker 1: it's it's real, like, it's not fake. Anymore. I believe 441 00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:44,680 Speaker 1: things are fake until I've heard it a million times. 442 00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:46,840 Speaker 1: I'm like, Okay, maybe it's real, but I do believe 443 00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:47,359 Speaker 1: it's real. 444 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:51,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, no way, it's for them, it's a question of 445 00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:54,199 Speaker 2: character and values, and I think for some of them 446 00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:57,120 Speaker 2: it's a question of competence. They just they think it's 447 00:23:57,119 --> 00:24:00,360 Speaker 2: a no brainer to distance from Tucker. And and it's 448 00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:04,880 Speaker 2: not just Tucker. You know, those those college Republicans who 449 00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:07,400 Speaker 2: had the text chain where they you know, made jokes 450 00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:11,240 Speaker 2: about Hitler some other people in MAGA, like the Vice 451 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:13,919 Speaker 2: president's attitude is seems to be in kind of a 452 00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:18,560 Speaker 2: I would say, almost childish way, is to be like, ah, 453 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:20,720 Speaker 2: I'm not going to repudiate people just because people tell 454 00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:24,120 Speaker 2: me to repudiate people without regard to well, like would 455 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 2: you repudiate you know, Osama bid Laden, right, so so 456 00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:32,879 Speaker 2: so I totally agree with you that I hear it 457 00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,639 Speaker 2: all the time. And like I said, it's not just 458 00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:37,920 Speaker 2: that it kind of rubs them the wrong way from 459 00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:42,720 Speaker 2: a from a you know, like a political point of view. 460 00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:45,439 Speaker 2: Really they think it speaks to his values, and of 461 00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:47,720 Speaker 2: course it plays into the doubts that a lot of 462 00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:49,760 Speaker 2: people have had about him. Over the course of his 463 00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:52,359 Speaker 2: time in public life that he went from saying Trump 464 00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 2: was the Republican Parties Hitler to saying Trump was the 465 00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:57,480 Speaker 2: greatest president of all time. And they just some people 466 00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:01,160 Speaker 2: seeing him a phony and a person and without values 467 00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:03,840 Speaker 2: and without a north Star. And the Tucker stuff plays 468 00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:05,639 Speaker 2: into that for a lot of people, not just Jews, 469 00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:06,560 Speaker 2: but a lot of Jews. 470 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, it is a lot of yeah. Okay. So on 471 00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:11,960 Speaker 1: the Democratic side, Mark has this great ranking. I watch 472 00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:13,840 Speaker 1: it every time you post a new one on the 473 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,240 Speaker 1: Democratic primary. Who is the most likely to get it? 474 00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:18,399 Speaker 1: Who's not his the least likely to get it. You 475 00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:22,400 Speaker 1: have been famously bearish on Gavin Newsom for a very 476 00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:25,919 Speaker 1: long time until recently. You are extremely bullish though on 477 00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,439 Speaker 1: Rama Manual, in my opinion, much more so than I 478 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:32,919 Speaker 1: would I really you speak very favorably about his possibility 479 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:33,920 Speaker 1: of him being nominated. 480 00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:38,840 Speaker 2: Truly, my sources do, and I report what they say. 481 00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:41,199 Speaker 2: I think there's a very small chance of his being 482 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:45,879 Speaker 2: the nomination, probably none except if except if lots of 483 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:50,399 Speaker 2: people don't run and the establishment just gathers random think that. 484 00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:53,720 Speaker 2: I think his record with one of your favorite groups 485 00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:58,040 Speaker 2: of teachers unions in Chicago. I think is his lack 486 00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:01,760 Speaker 2: of bedside manner. I think is being Jewish, being short, 487 00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:06,040 Speaker 2: I think being I think, he said opposition researchers dream. No, 488 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:09,199 Speaker 2: I'm sorry, I gave you the wrong impression. He's on 489 00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:12,040 Speaker 2: my list of eight because of such a weak field 490 00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:15,280 Speaker 2: and because he does have so much support for the establishment, 491 00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:18,040 Speaker 2: and under certain circumstances, I believe he could be endorsed 492 00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,760 Speaker 2: by both Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, which for a 493 00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:24,000 Speaker 2: lot of voters could make a difference. Endorsements really do. 494 00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 2: But I think those might, So I'm not bullish on 495 00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:31,800 Speaker 2: him at all. I'm aware though that a lot of 496 00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:34,280 Speaker 2: my sources are what in your. 497 00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:38,440 Speaker 1: Opinion, because I said, this is my monologue. The calendar 498 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,720 Speaker 1: is very important. If South Carolina goes first, black women 499 00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:46,720 Speaker 1: in the South play an extraordinarily. You know, their vote really, really, 500 00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:48,919 Speaker 1: really matters, and they are the vote that say Bill Clinton, 501 00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:52,480 Speaker 1: Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Who is playing to the 502 00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:55,399 Speaker 1: progressive base, who lives in New Hampshire and Vermont, and 503 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,280 Speaker 1: who is playing to black women in the Deep South 504 00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:00,280 Speaker 1: and playing them strong because it's a complete at least 505 00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:01,160 Speaker 1: out of different values. 506 00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:06,719 Speaker 2: Well, yes and no, I mean in this field, in 507 00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:09,840 Speaker 2: this Republican in this Democratic Party. I don't know that 508 00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:13,280 Speaker 2: that's some sort of like existential choice between the two. 509 00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:17,440 Speaker 2: I think right now at this phase, at least, what voters, 510 00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:20,520 Speaker 2: whether they're Bernie Sanders, you know, living on the New 511 00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:24,320 Speaker 2: Hampshire border Vermont border in New Hampshire, or whether they're 512 00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:26,840 Speaker 2: you know, seventy year old black women who vote regularly 513 00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,240 Speaker 2: in South Carolina. They want someone who'll stand up to Trump. 514 00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,400 Speaker 2: They want someone who's got energy, they want someone who 515 00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:34,639 Speaker 2: seems to be able to bridge the divides within the 516 00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:38,760 Speaker 2: party and within the country. So I think I unlike 517 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,320 Speaker 2: some past cycles, and again partly it's because the calendar 518 00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:43,760 Speaker 2: is unsettled, and partly because of the fields so weak. 519 00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:48,080 Speaker 2: I don't see lots of specialization in terms of either 520 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:51,360 Speaker 2: demographics or giagrit geography. At this point, I think everybody 521 00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:53,879 Speaker 2: is trying to play everywhere and because no one is 522 00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 2: particularly strong you can beat Pete bootagege historically, you know, 523 00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:02,040 Speaker 2: comically with black voters and say I'm going to make 524 00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:04,240 Speaker 2: a play for that, because with the exception of Kamala 525 00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,520 Speaker 2: harris'sually no one in the in the potential field who 526 00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,040 Speaker 2: has some sort of historic or deep hold on black 527 00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:10,840 Speaker 2: women voters. 528 00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,920 Speaker 1: I have told polsters to put a poll in South 529 00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:16,720 Speaker 1: Carolina or in Alabama or wherever where you put Pete 530 00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:20,000 Speaker 1: foota judge up against a fictional Democrat and see who 531 00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:21,960 Speaker 1: polls higher with black voters. I would actually like to 532 00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,720 Speaker 1: see if, as I bet, it's not Pete Pooter judge. 533 00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,600 Speaker 1: But I think that there is. I think there's a 534 00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:31,160 Speaker 1: cautionary tale with Kamala Harris in twenty twenty four where 535 00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:35,040 Speaker 1: she famously said that she would give transgender illegal alliens 536 00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:37,880 Speaker 1: free medical care and it really did actually hurt her 537 00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:41,720 Speaker 1: base with progress with with regular voters and for the 538 00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:44,560 Speaker 1: you know, love of progressives that she did'ed up getting. Anyway, 539 00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:49,800 Speaker 1: is there caution exists today at all? Like, hey, we 540 00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:51,520 Speaker 1: can't go too far to the left. I know Andy 541 00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:53,440 Speaker 1: Basher does it, but does anybody else. 542 00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:57,520 Speaker 2: Well, your favorite candidate Ramamanuel does, Gavin Newsom does it. 543 00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:02,040 Speaker 2: Gavin Newsom does it. Episodically, I think there's part of 544 00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:04,680 Speaker 2: why this is so unsettled, besides again the weakness of 545 00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:08,760 Speaker 2: the field and the lack of DNC sanctioned nominating calendar, 546 00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:14,320 Speaker 2: is there's two variables that if you look at the 547 00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:17,560 Speaker 2: elections of twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, you would say 548 00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:21,280 Speaker 2: would be a super source of strength for the Democratic nominee, 549 00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:23,960 Speaker 2: because I believe Sanders, Senator Sanders would have been the 550 00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:27,040 Speaker 2: nominee in sixteen and in twenty if the DNC hadn't 551 00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,280 Speaker 2: agreed the rules to keep him from winning. One is 552 00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:36,320 Speaker 2: super progressive, and with the exception of AOC and Rocanna, 553 00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:38,840 Speaker 2: there's no one else in my top lists that are 554 00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:43,080 Speaker 2: super progressive, like single payer, green, new deal, you know 555 00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:46,160 Speaker 2: all that. So that's one, and then the other is 556 00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:50,440 Speaker 2: is sort of a populist outsider that no member of 557 00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:54,880 Speaker 2: Congress except AOC need apply. Even governors might not be 558 00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:55,960 Speaker 2: outsider enough. 559 00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:56,440 Speaker 1: Right. 560 00:29:56,920 --> 00:30:01,040 Speaker 2: So it's hard to know because four is not part 561 00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:03,120 Speaker 2: of the sample space because we had an incumbent president 562 00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:05,719 Speaker 2: and then he ended it off to an incumbent vice president. 563 00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:09,560 Speaker 2: But most of the of the fingertip feel my sources 564 00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:14,440 Speaker 2: have and I have for the Democratic Party says a populist, 565 00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:18,200 Speaker 2: super left wing outsider is a good lane. It may 566 00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:20,640 Speaker 2: not win, but it's a good lane. And again I 567 00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:22,480 Speaker 2: don't think AOC will run in the end, and so 568 00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:26,880 Speaker 2: someone has to fill that lane, and I don't see 569 00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:29,640 Speaker 2: it right now. I don't see who that person is. 570 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's funny. Also, thing I'm hearing from Democratic consultants 571 00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:37,640 Speaker 1: and activists is no women. I've heard from multiple Democratics thing, 572 00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:40,040 Speaker 1: we are not voting for a woman this time, right. 573 00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:43,240 Speaker 2: So like, you hear no women, you hear no jew, 574 00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:48,000 Speaker 2: you hear no gay, you hear no non white. So 575 00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:50,960 Speaker 2: that doesn't leave a lot of people. That leaves Gavity, Newsom, 576 00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:52,160 Speaker 2: and Andy to be sheer. 577 00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:54,840 Speaker 1: For the most part, I do not believe that that 578 00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:57,440 Speaker 1: Joshapiro conversation happened where they accused him of being an 579 00:30:57,480 --> 00:30:59,080 Speaker 1: age or asked me he was an agent for Israel. 580 00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:00,520 Speaker 1: I don't believe that happened whatsoever. 581 00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:04,800 Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know. I'm agnostic on that, but 582 00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:07,520 Speaker 2: I just don't think that that that that specific or 583 00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:10,120 Speaker 2: the general question of whether he makes stuff up or 584 00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:12,520 Speaker 2: very big problems compared to most of the other candidates. 585 00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:15,760 Speaker 1: Well, yeah, that's true. Okay, So if you had your ranking, now, 586 00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:18,800 Speaker 1: who is the top person who is leading the field? 587 00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:21,240 Speaker 1: The weak field, that, mind you, but the leading field. 588 00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:23,800 Speaker 2: I think Newsome and Shapiro are head and shoulders above 589 00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:26,400 Speaker 2: everyone else. But I don't think Newsom's going to make 590 00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:28,560 Speaker 2: it to the starting line in the end, and I 591 00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:32,120 Speaker 2: think Shapiro has massive flaws. But I also don't believe 592 00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:34,360 Speaker 2: in this white Night theory that somebody's surprising is going 593 00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:38,600 Speaker 2: to come through. So my current, my current bet is 594 00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:42,360 Speaker 2: is it's going to be bootages, as implausible as that is, 595 00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:46,360 Speaker 2: but until until they proved either they're not running or 596 00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:49,000 Speaker 2: they're weak, I think it'd be their Newsom or Shapiro. 597 00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:53,400 Speaker 1: I literally guessed that is that is that is a 598 00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:55,960 Speaker 1: hot take. If you could compare this field, as a 599 00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:58,600 Speaker 1: student of history, compare this field to any other previous 600 00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:00,600 Speaker 1: primary which one would it be? Is this like two 601 00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:03,080 Speaker 1: thousand and four, two thousand and I don't even know. 602 00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:06,120 Speaker 2: Nineteen two two thousand and four was a pretty weak field, 603 00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:08,280 Speaker 2: but I think this is currently the weakest field. 604 00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:10,880 Speaker 1: Well, Mark Halpern, thank you so much. Where they'll go 605 00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:13,000 Speaker 1: to read all your stuff, listening to you. Your shows 606 00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:15,160 Speaker 1: are always must watching my household. 607 00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:19,120 Speaker 2: I appreciate that. Next up on YouTube or two way 608 00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:22,520 Speaker 2: dot tv, you can find some of my content there. 609 00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:23,160 Speaker 2: That's plenty. 610 00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:24,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, thank you so much. 611 00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:26,560 Speaker 2: Okay, thank you, great to see you. 612 00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:31,800 Speaker 1: Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If 613 00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:33,880 Speaker 1: you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, 614 00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:36,600 Speaker 1: ent me Ryan at Numbers gamepodcast dot com. That's Ryan 615 00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:39,720 Speaker 1: at numbers Ploural Numbers gamepodcast dot com. This question comes 616 00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:42,440 Speaker 1: from my buddy Peter Fomo. He says, if the sayback passes, 617 00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:44,640 Speaker 1: what is your opinion on whether or not it will 618 00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:47,760 Speaker 1: help Republicans. I assume it will help, but my concerns 619 00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:49,960 Speaker 1: are Republican the lower pencity voters may not get the 620 00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:55,040 Speaker 1: effort to register. Maybe I mean it affects new registrations 621 00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:59,680 Speaker 1: on existing ones. I think it will have a minimal effect. 622 00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:03,200 Speaker 1: Where I think it could have a large effect. The 623 00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:05,080 Speaker 1: place is going to have the biggest effect is in 624 00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:09,600 Speaker 1: states with automatic voter registration, so among Spring State's places 625 00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:14,760 Speaker 1: like Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia. In Georgia, I think you 626 00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:17,400 Speaker 1: will actually help Republicans a lot a lot of lober pencany, 627 00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:20,520 Speaker 1: mostly black voters who do turn out for Joe Biden, 628 00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:23,440 Speaker 1: who turn out for Stacy Abrams, who turn out for 629 00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:27,880 Speaker 1: any Democrat. They will likely not be able to automatically 630 00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:29,760 Speaker 1: get voter registration, which means they have to do the 631 00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:31,960 Speaker 1: work and not just show up on election day, which 632 00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:35,400 Speaker 1: would probably decrease voter turnout among that population. But it's 633 00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,760 Speaker 1: going to be very small, my bet, and I don't 634 00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:41,720 Speaker 1: think it's going to necessarily change the economy too much. 635 00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:43,400 Speaker 1: I would guess if I had to put up money 636 00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:47,920 Speaker 1: a where it helps Republicans, it will affect automatic voter registration, 637 00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:54,160 Speaker 1: and that will impede probably automatic registration in states that 638 00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:58,960 Speaker 1: in states with large populations of lower pensity Democratic voters 639 00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:02,520 Speaker 1: like Nevada and Georgia. That's my guess. We'll see, we'll 640 00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:04,480 Speaker 1: see if it even passes. I mean, they're coming up 641 00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:06,080 Speaker 1: to a problem and I will leave some Rokowski not 642 00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:10,000 Speaker 1: supporting it, so who knows. I mean, it's gonna be 643 00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:11,640 Speaker 1: by the skin of their teeth that they get this 644 00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:14,600 Speaker 1: thing through. We'll have to wait to see. Anyway. That's 645 00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:16,840 Speaker 1: this episode. If you like this podcast, please like and 646 00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:19,279 Speaker 1: subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast where to get 647 00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:21,840 Speaker 1: your podcast, and I will talk to you guys on Friday. Bye.