1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:07,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:13,280 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 3 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:16,160 Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play 4 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: and then Rouno with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on 5 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 6 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:23,600 Speaker 2: on YouTube. 7 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 3: New York of course, Joe where Donald Trump has had 8 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 3: to spend most of his days over the course of 9 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 3: the many weeks since April fifteenth, when his criminal hush 10 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 3: money trial began. But we could be closing in on 11 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:38,199 Speaker 3: the end of the amount of time he'll have to 12 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 3: spend in New York. Not this week but next Tuesday. 13 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:45,240 Speaker 3: Closing arguments, according to Judge Murshawn in this case are set. 14 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:47,879 Speaker 4: Yeah, I guess the jury will have a long holiday 15 00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:53,200 Speaker 4: weekend hopefully along with you as well, not sequestered as 16 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 4: they deliberate until next week. 17 00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 5: So this will be interesting. 18 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 4: Not that I expect a sequester that's probably not going 19 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:02,640 Speaker 4: to happen in this case, but interesting to watch Michael 20 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:06,040 Speaker 4: Cohen wrap up his testimony here because it's unclear Kayley, 21 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 4: who's going to come next. 22 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a question around FEC official former one whether 23 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:14,560 Speaker 3: he could testify on the depart on the part of 24 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:17,200 Speaker 3: the defense, because the defense would like to make clear 25 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 3: what exactly the rules are here, I guess, but it 26 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:20,959 Speaker 3: seems that there's been a lot of back and forth 27 00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 3: with the judge and what in terms is actually permissible 28 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 3: of testimony from that witness. And of course we also 29 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:29,560 Speaker 3: still have the question around Donald Trump himself whether he 30 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:32,440 Speaker 3: takes the stand. Most experts would tell you he won't. 31 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 5: These are the big questions we posed to. 32 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:36,560 Speaker 4: Jim Ziron, I'm glad to say is back with us 33 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:39,960 Speaker 4: from World Headquarters in New York. Former Assistant US Attorney 34 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 4: for the Southern Districts of New York. Jim, it's great 35 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:45,320 Speaker 4: to see you. Thank you as always for joining us. 36 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 4: I'd love to know your thoughts on whether Donald Trump 37 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 4: would maybe should or two different questions here testify. But 38 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:55,559 Speaker 4: first let's talk about Michael Cohen as he survives cross 39 00:01:55,560 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 4: examination and is now going through redirector actually, I guess 40 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 4: in a break at the moment, which gives us a 41 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:04,000 Speaker 4: good chance to take note of where we are. How 42 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 4: did Donald Trump's defense attorneys do here in trying to 43 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:12,640 Speaker 4: frame the narrative around someone they say is a witness 44 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:13,639 Speaker 4: with no credibility. 45 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:17,640 Speaker 6: Well, I think they landed a few blows and perhaps 46 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 6: showed some inconsistencies. They also brought out something which had 47 00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 6: been brought out on direct examination, that Cohen had stolen 48 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:31,520 Speaker 6: money from Trump. But all that simply goes to the 49 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:33,960 Speaker 6: issue of the ultimate issue of credibility, which is for 50 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 6: the jury and on cross examination, defense lawyers often score 51 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 6: some points the witness Cohen is now on redirect Susan 52 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:52,399 Speaker 6: Hoffinger is a terrific prosecutor, and I assume she's going 53 00:02:52,480 --> 00:03:00,040 Speaker 6: to bring out through questioning Cohen's clarifying testimony about the 54 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:04,120 Speaker 6: famous telephone conversation that he claims he had with Trump 55 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:09,240 Speaker 6: when the text messages show that they were discussing some 56 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:12,959 Speaker 6: other subject. There were many other telephone conversations the October 57 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:17,680 Speaker 6: twenty six conversations, notably that Cohen had with Trump, and 58 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 6: the basic point is that Trump approved of the payment 59 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:27,200 Speaker 6: to as Stormy Daniels and approved of it being delivered 60 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:30,280 Speaker 6: to Stormy Daniels in the way that it was with 61 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 6: the circumstances of concealment. 62 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 3: So Jim, as we think about whether or not ultimately 63 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 3: the jury is going to find Michael Cohen to be 64 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 3: credible and trustworthy as it formulates its thought process on 65 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 3: exactly whether Donald Trump should be acquitted or convicted of 66 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:50,680 Speaker 3: these crimes. Would any further testimony from witnesses the defense 67 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 3: calls ultimately matter, assuming one of them is not going 68 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 3: to be Donald Trump. What does an FEC expert witness 69 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 3: have to do with whether or not Michael Cohen told 70 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:01,040 Speaker 3: the truth? 71 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 6: It's not going to really affect the credibility of Michael Cohen. 72 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:09,600 Speaker 6: And there are a number of witnesses they might call 73 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 6: whom they're not going to call. They really the only 74 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:19,559 Speaker 6: person who can contradict Cohen as someone in the jury 75 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:24,919 Speaker 6: won't believe either, and that's Donald Trump. And if he 76 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 6: takes the stand, he'll be subjected to vigorous cross examination 77 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:34,479 Speaker 6: and he'll have to commit perjury to deny that he 78 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 6: knew about the reimbursement of payment. He can be asked 79 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:42,119 Speaker 6: a series of questions that he really can't answer without 80 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 6: incriminating himself, such as, you sign nine checks. You're a micromanager, 81 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 6: right right? And you sign checks unless you know what 82 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 6: they're for? No, not usually? And did you see the 83 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:59,320 Speaker 6: invoices that related to those checks? No, I didn't I 84 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 6: show you the voices they say they were for legal 85 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:06,719 Speaker 6: services from Michael Cohen. What legal services that Cohen rendered 86 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 6: to you? It was supposed to be pursua to a 87 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:13,359 Speaker 6: retainer agreement. Where's the retainer agreement? And Trump can't answer 88 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:19,720 Speaker 6: those questions and without incriminating himself, And so most lawyers 89 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:24,479 Speaker 6: would say it's an act of malpractice if they call 90 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:27,279 Speaker 6: him to the stand, because he'll just dig himself in 91 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 6: much deeper. 92 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:33,480 Speaker 4: He wrote a fascinating opinion piece in The Hill about 93 00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 4: this Jim in which you say that Donald Trump likely 94 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:37,680 Speaker 4: will not take the stand. But if he does not, 95 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 4: as most people believe, there will always be the suspicion 96 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:43,839 Speaker 4: in people's minds about why. 97 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:45,280 Speaker 5: He chose not to. 98 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:48,520 Speaker 4: Is this a real conversation you think inside his legal 99 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 4: team right now? 100 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:56,599 Speaker 6: Well, there are two courts that are considering the guild 101 00:05:56,680 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 6: or innocence of Donald Trump. One is the Court of 102 00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:03,360 Speaker 6: Justice on Center Street in downtown Manhattan, and the other 103 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:07,039 Speaker 6: is the Court of Public Opinion. In the Court of Justice, 104 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:12,880 Speaker 6: the prosecution is not permitted to comment on the defendant's 105 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 6: failure to take the stand. In fact, the judge can 106 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:20,920 Speaker 6: charge the jury that they had draw no inference from 107 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 6: his failure to take the stand, Although judges frequently talked 108 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 6: to defense counselor before they even give such a charge. 109 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 6: The prosecutor can say that you heard the evidence presented 110 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:36,159 Speaker 6: by Michael Cohen. It's largely corroborated, and none of it 111 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 6: is contradicted, and that will have a telling effect on 112 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:43,279 Speaker 6: the jury. In the court of public opinion, the political court, 113 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:48,480 Speaker 6: it certainly ought to weigh strongly with voters who haven't 114 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 6: already committed themselves that Donald Trump did not take the 115 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 6: stand and never denied the charge that he made this 116 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:05,400 Speaker 6: secret payment of hush money to Stormy Daniels in order 117 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:09,039 Speaker 6: to influence the outcome of the twenty sixteen election. That's 118 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,120 Speaker 6: the charge on which the jury will deliberate. 119 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 3: And of course, Jim we also know, based on polling, 120 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 3: including polling Bloomberg has done with Morning Consult in the past, 121 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 3: that if he becomes a convicted felon, especially in swing states, 122 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:24,920 Speaker 3: voters may be less likely to vote for him. So 123 00:07:24,960 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 3: it just does become a question of whether ultimately that 124 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:30,680 Speaker 3: conviction happens. How difficult is it going to be in 125 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 3: your mind, given all of the testimony that has been heard, 126 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 3: the arguments have been made for this to not end up, 127 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 3: say in a hung jury or even an acquittal. 128 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 6: Well, the jurors will be instructed that what they bring 129 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:50,480 Speaker 6: to the courtroom is not their biases, not their political leanings, 130 00:07:51,040 --> 00:07:54,720 Speaker 6: not their attitudes as to whether they like or dislike 131 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:58,880 Speaker 6: Donald Trump. But they're common sense And if you look 132 00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 6: at the totality of these transactions, they were only accomplished 133 00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:07,720 Speaker 6: for one purpose, and that was to benefit Donald Trump, 134 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 6: to shut up Stormy Daniels and run up to the election, 135 00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:18,480 Speaker 6: and to make sure she stayed silent until after the 136 00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:21,520 Speaker 6: election was over. Because the timing was such that it 137 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 6: came on the heels of the Billy Bush tape and 138 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 6: Trump just couldn't take another sex scandal, according to his 139 00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:35,400 Speaker 6: advisors in the Trump campaign. Now the jury understands that, 140 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:39,200 Speaker 6: and in closing arguments, you can be sure the prosecutors 141 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:42,240 Speaker 6: will make them understand that they're going to return a 142 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:45,559 Speaker 6: verdict of guilty after hearing the judge's instructions. 143 00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:47,480 Speaker 5: Huh. 144 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:50,599 Speaker 4: I wonder your thoughts on duration here, the extent to 145 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:54,680 Speaker 4: which jurors need time. I know that deliberations can take 146 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:59,160 Speaker 4: on a lot of different forms. Here, Jim, when this 147 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 4: goes to the jury, how long will we wait? 148 00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 6: Well, it's hard to say. I think if it's going 149 00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:09,560 Speaker 6: to be an acquittal, they could come back within an hour. 150 00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:14,920 Speaker 6: If they're were mowing over the various thirty four counts 151 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:20,840 Speaker 6: and mowing over the evidence and asking for the testimony 152 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:23,200 Speaker 6: of witnesses to be read back to them. If they're 153 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 6: asking for exhibits, it's more likely to lean toward a conviction. 154 00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:31,560 Speaker 6: If it goes on too long, the judge may deliver 155 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 6: to the jury the famous Allan charge. Allen was a 156 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:39,400 Speaker 6: case in the Supreme Court of the United States in 157 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:44,080 Speaker 6: eighteen ninety six, and the Allen charge, which is sometimes 158 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:50,960 Speaker 6: called the Dynamite charge, basically tells the minority jurors, without 159 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:53,960 Speaker 6: probing what the vote is at that point, that they 160 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:59,080 Speaker 6: have to follow their conscious consciences and come to a 161 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:02,920 Speaker 6: conscientious inclusion individually. But they should take into account that 162 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 6: the majority of the jurors believes something that's different from 163 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:11,000 Speaker 6: the conclusion they've reached, and consider whether they have to 164 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 6: change their conclusion based not on the fact that the 165 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:19,959 Speaker 6: majority rules, but on the fact that the majority may 166 00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:25,479 Speaker 6: have reasoning for their conviction that is persuasive. 167 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:30,080 Speaker 3: All Right, Jim Zyron, former Assistant US Attorney for the 168 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:32,600 Speaker 3: Southern District of New York. Thank you so much, as 169 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:34,960 Speaker 3: always for joining us on balance of power. He of 170 00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:37,560 Speaker 3: course joining us from our headquarters up in New York 171 00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 3: and the New York City is where Donald Trump is 172 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 3: again today as we have this trial continuing to play out, 173 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:45,079 Speaker 3: and we know it will do so for at least 174 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 3: the next week is closing arguments are set for Tuesday. 175 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 3: In the meantime, when Donald Trump was spending time in 176 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:53,920 Speaker 3: New York, he was traveling this weekend, including an appearance 177 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:58,280 Speaker 3: at the NRA where he gave a speech in Dallas. 178 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 3: Joe over the weekend can get into that in a 179 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:03,640 Speaker 3: moment while, But Joe Biden was doing some traveling of 180 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:06,480 Speaker 3: his own, including to Atlanta where he gave the commencement 181 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 3: address at Morehouse College. There were some silent protesters while 182 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 3: he was speaking, and he referenced specifically the ongoing war 183 00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:14,959 Speaker 3: in Gaza. 184 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 7: Here he is, it's a humanitarian crisis in Gaza. That's 185 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:24,040 Speaker 7: why I've called for an immediacasfire, an immediacy squire stopped 186 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:30,559 Speaker 7: the fighting, bringing the hostage's hold, and I've been working 187 00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:33,679 Speaker 7: on a deal as we speak working around the clock, 188 00:11:33,720 --> 00:11:36,160 Speaker 7: the leading international offer to get more aid into Gaza. 189 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 7: Three Bill's Oza. I'm also working around the clock for 190 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:42,200 Speaker 7: more than just one ceasefire. I'm working to bring the 191 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:45,840 Speaker 7: region together, working to build a last endurable peace. 192 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:51,560 Speaker 4: President Biden at Morehouse College over the weekends and anticipated address. 193 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 4: There were a lot of concerns about protesters. 194 00:11:54,480 --> 00:11:55,240 Speaker 5: In that speech. 195 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 4: It largely did not materialize, though there were a handful 196 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:02,840 Speaker 4: about a half dozen students and I believe one educator 197 00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:06,199 Speaker 4: who turned their backs to Joe Biden while he was speaking. 198 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 5: One raised a fist. That was it. 199 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 4: He did acknowledge them during his speech and talked about 200 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 4: the right peaceful protest. Laura Davison is with us right 201 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:19,680 Speaker 4: now at the table, Bloomberg Politics editor. Coming off of 202 00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:21,800 Speaker 4: all of these speeches over the weekend, Laura, it's good 203 00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:25,440 Speaker 4: to see you. Did Joe Biden get done what he 204 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 4: was looking to get done here in terms of delivering 205 00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 4: a message. It wasn't just more House last week. He 206 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:32,080 Speaker 4: had a series of events over the course of four 207 00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:36,760 Speaker 4: days to address black voters in this country, which has 208 00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:40,000 Speaker 4: been a real deficit for him for many issues, including 209 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:42,079 Speaker 4: his policy in Gaza. 210 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 8: He did he got through all these events without any 211 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:46,240 Speaker 8: sort of major flub as well as, you know, without 212 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:49,560 Speaker 8: facing the protesters that were considered to be a major 213 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 8: threat to the speech. Potentially very disruptive, you know, silent protesting, 214 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 8: and in some ways it's sort of a smart strategy 215 00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 8: because you get to remain in the room, you become mbunctious, 216 00:12:57,880 --> 00:12:59,720 Speaker 8: of course security will escort you out. So this is 217 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:02,600 Speaker 8: both sides were able to sort of notch a win 218 00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:05,240 Speaker 8: in this one. You'll note that Donald Trump is also 219 00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:09,120 Speaker 8: taking note of Biden's outreach to black voters. He himself 220 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:11,440 Speaker 8: has an event planned in the South Bronx later this 221 00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 8: week kind of build as being a way to reach 222 00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:16,960 Speaker 8: out to minority voters and talk about how Joe Biden's 223 00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 8: policies have you know, in his words, failed black and 224 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:22,680 Speaker 8: Hispanic voters. So we're kind of seeing that both both 225 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:24,520 Speaker 8: sides play this out in their own way. 226 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 3: On the subject of Donald Trump over the weekend, we 227 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:29,280 Speaker 3: heard him say a number of things in that speech 228 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:32,600 Speaker 3: in Dallas, but among them suggestions that maybe he could 229 00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 3: be in not just for a second term, but a 230 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 3: third Laura, is that real? We've seen iterations of that 231 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:39,840 Speaker 3: kind of language from him before. 232 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:41,680 Speaker 8: Yes, So this is this is the way that Trump 233 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:44,960 Speaker 8: sort of like hintset ideas without totally crossing the line. 234 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:46,960 Speaker 8: So the way he kind of talked about this was like, well, 235 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:49,439 Speaker 8: if we want in twenty twenty, technically I would be 236 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:51,200 Speaker 8: winning a third time and so this would be like 237 00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:53,440 Speaker 8: be my third term. But though obviously he hasn't been 238 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:55,560 Speaker 8: president for the past you know, three and a half years, 239 00:13:55,559 --> 00:13:58,120 Speaker 8: and so this is you know, him sort of flirting 240 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 8: with different ideas, flying floating a trial and seeing what 241 00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 8: kind of reaction it gets. This is the same thing 242 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 8: with the Dictator for a Day kind of comment. You 243 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:07,680 Speaker 8: saw a really you know, strong reaction on that. So 244 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:09,760 Speaker 8: this is kind of what he's doing of playing around, 245 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:12,319 Speaker 8: being careless with language and sort of seeing what the 246 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 8: response is. 247 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:14,880 Speaker 4: It's hard not to note that Donald Trump had some 248 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:19,320 Speaker 4: trouble on stage at both of his events this weekend 249 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 4: in a way that would have probably been very big 250 00:14:21,200 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 4: news if it had happened to Joe Biden. On Saturday nights, 251 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 4: he almost kind of stumbled off the podium, which was rickety. 252 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:29,680 Speaker 4: To his credit, he called out the contractors in the 253 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:33,040 Speaker 4: room for it, and he froze in front of the NRA, 254 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 4: it would appeared to be freezing at least he stopped 255 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:38,760 Speaker 4: talking for longer than thirty seconds at one point yesterday. 256 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:41,720 Speaker 4: Wouldn't that be a big story if it were Joe Biden? 257 00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:43,360 Speaker 4: How come it's not for Donald Trump? 258 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 8: This is he has been able to evade the age 259 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:48,000 Speaker 8: issue in a way that Joe Biden all include Mitch 260 00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 8: McConnell as well, has not been able to. You know, 261 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 8: he famously had you know, froze in several high profile 262 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:55,080 Speaker 8: speeches and press conferences, and it's been a major issue 263 00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 8: and you know, kind of effectively ended his terms as 264 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 8: majority leader in the Senate or a Republican leader in 265 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 8: the Senate. So this is the thing though, that if 266 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 8: it keeps coming, it's going to be a problem for 267 00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 8: him over the next several weeks and months. 268 00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:12,080 Speaker 3: All right, Laura Davison, Bloomberg Politics Editor, thank you so much. 269 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 3: I would note that when he did pause there was 270 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:18,000 Speaker 3: music playing. That's true, so maybe it was partially for 271 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:20,480 Speaker 3: dramatic effect, but to your point, show it lasted for 272 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 3: a considerable amount of time. 273 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:23,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, and it look at maybe nothing, But I always 274 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 4: find it interesting what people pay attention to. 275 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 5: Lot more ahead on Balance of Power. This is Bloomberg. 276 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Kens 277 00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play 278 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 2: and then roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business App. You 279 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:43,160 Speaker 2: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 280 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:48,360 Speaker 2: New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 281 00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:51,280 Speaker 3: It's a new week here in Washington as well, although 282 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:53,520 Speaker 3: it seems like at least in the United States Senate, 283 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:56,360 Speaker 3: they're going to be dealing with an old issue because, 284 00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:58,720 Speaker 3: according to the Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who sent 285 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:01,520 Speaker 3: a Dear Colleague letter out ye yesterday, the Senate will 286 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 3: return to the pressing issue of our nation's border security. 287 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:07,640 Speaker 3: He went on to say, Joe, the Senate is prepared 288 00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:10,960 Speaker 3: to take up the Bipartisan Border Act as a standalone 289 00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:14,000 Speaker 3: measure this coming week. For those who forgot, this was 290 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 3: the deal negotiated between Republicans and Democrats in the Senate, 291 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:19,560 Speaker 3: and the White House never made it for a vote 292 00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:22,760 Speaker 3: the first time around. Donald Trump maybe had a helping 293 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:25,000 Speaker 3: hand and killing that effort. But I guess if at 294 00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:28,000 Speaker 3: first you don't succeed, Joe, try try again. 295 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 4: Or message message again. Because no one sees this passing. 296 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:34,360 Speaker 4: And we're going to spend the next ten minutes with 297 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:37,880 Speaker 4: our panel here looking at this same strategy being employed 298 00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 4: on both sides of the aisle. This is Washington. This 299 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:46,560 Speaker 4: is also partly why people hate Washington. So let's get into. 300 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 5: This right now. Kaylee, you're right. 301 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 4: The border is coming to the floor this week in 302 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 4: the Senate, and there are about five Democrats who this 303 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 4: is happening for as Chuck Schumer tries to get everybody 304 00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:01,560 Speaker 4: on the record, So frontline democrats course running for reelection 305 00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 4: in difficult states, we'll be able to say, hey, I 306 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:08,720 Speaker 4: fought for securing the border. Genie Shanzino is with us 307 00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 4: Bloomberg Politics contributor of course, democratic analyst, and I should 308 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 4: note as well now senior Democracy fellow with the Center 309 00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:19,239 Speaker 4: for the Study of the Presidency in Congress. Congrats on 310 00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 4: that new addition to the business card. Genie Chapin Fay, 311 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:26,359 Speaker 4: republican strategist from Actum, is also with us here. So Genie, 312 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 4: why don't you get us started on what it is 313 00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 4: we're actually seeing because nobody expects that border bill to pass. 314 00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:33,679 Speaker 5: What's Chuck Schumer trying to do? 315 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:35,439 Speaker 3: Well? 316 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:38,680 Speaker 9: This is what we see in Washington during the summer 317 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:42,160 Speaker 9: of a really tough election year. And so Chuck Schumer 318 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:44,960 Speaker 9: is reading the same polls we are, and he knows 319 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:47,960 Speaker 9: that Democrats have a problem when it comes to immigration. 320 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:51,720 Speaker 9: He wants to mitigate that problem as much as possible. 321 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:56,199 Speaker 9: He wants to give his five really vulnerable senators, you 322 00:17:56,240 --> 00:18:00,959 Speaker 9: know Rose in Baldwin, Tester, the group Casey vote that 323 00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 9: they can go back to their constituents and say we 324 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 9: voted for a tougher border bill. And of course it 325 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:09,720 Speaker 9: doesn't hurt if he also is able to say that 326 00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:13,800 Speaker 9: Democrats are not in this box that Republicans seem to 327 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 9: think they are in immigration, that they have a plan 328 00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:20,719 Speaker 9: and a policy to address it. But oh, Donald Trump 329 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:24,520 Speaker 9: sunk that some time ago for political reasons. So it 330 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,600 Speaker 9: is a purely political vote. It has no hope of 331 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:30,439 Speaker 9: going forward. And of course it's not just Republicans who 332 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,159 Speaker 9: will vote against it. It's Democrats, some progressives, and some 333 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:36,919 Speaker 9: Hispanics like Padia and Menendez. So it's going to be 334 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 9: a show vote, if you will, of the best kind 335 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:40,960 Speaker 9: in an election year. 336 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:45,760 Speaker 3: Well for those Republicans who vote against it. Chapin, how 337 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:49,199 Speaker 3: problematic is this for them. Our voters not wise to 338 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 3: the idea that they may have had a chance to 339 00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 3: vote for some stronger measures of the border and didn't. 340 00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 10: Yeah, I think you always run that risk. But I 341 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 10: think that if you look at the data and the 342 00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:05,480 Speaker 10: polling and sort of in these areas, I don't think 343 00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 10: that Republicans are getting the blame for immigration. So I 344 00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:11,479 Speaker 10: think the American voters know that this is a show vote. 345 00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:14,640 Speaker 10: They know that it's a little cynical. And again I'm 346 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 10: not really disparaged Democrats for doing it. Republicans do it 347 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:19,880 Speaker 10: as well, but it is certainly cynical election. 348 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:20,119 Speaker 5: To your deploy. 349 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:22,679 Speaker 10: I think voters can see through that, right, and they 350 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:24,600 Speaker 10: know that allegis piece of legislation is not going to 351 00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:30,160 Speaker 10: fix everything that's broken in immigration system. So it may 352 00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:33,480 Speaker 10: have somewhat of a small desired effect, but it's not 353 00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:36,400 Speaker 10: going to It's not really going to hurt the Republicans 354 00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:40,399 Speaker 10: on immigration. I just don't see anything the left or 355 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:43,000 Speaker 10: Biden can do that would hurt or take the issue 356 00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:46,440 Speaker 10: away unless Biden came out with some very forceful plan 357 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:50,240 Speaker 10: on closing the border even temporarily, you know, or doing 358 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:51,480 Speaker 10: any of that kind of stuff. 359 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:53,399 Speaker 5: That might have an effect. 360 00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:55,640 Speaker 10: That might if you you know, a good test case 361 00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:59,000 Speaker 10: is if you look at what Congressman Swasey said in 362 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 10: his election in this special election against Mazie Phillips recently, 363 00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 10: he took immigration away from her. But he's a moderate, 364 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 10: almost a conservative on some issues, and he went all 365 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 10: the way to the right on that issue. That was 366 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:12,800 Speaker 10: the way he took it away from her successfully. I 367 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:15,120 Speaker 10: don't see the Democrats doing that, So I don't think 368 00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:20,680 Speaker 10: this vote is going to have as big a desired effect. Well, 369 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:24,600 Speaker 10: like you just said, Chapin, this is a strategy employed 370 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:26,359 Speaker 10: by both sides, and I think this is indicative of 371 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 10: where we are here in the congressional calendar and the 372 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 10: election cycle. Pretty much everything from here on out is 373 00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:36,120 Speaker 10: probably going to be a messaging bill. There's a new 374 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:41,719 Speaker 10: one on in vitro fertilization. Katie Britt and Ted Cruz, 375 00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:45,000 Speaker 10: two Republican senators of course, out with this bill to 376 00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:49,480 Speaker 10: protect IVF following the Alabama state ruling that got this 377 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,120 Speaker 10: onto the front pages of the front burners and so forth. 378 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:54,520 Speaker 10: And we should note that the Alabama legislature has already active. 379 00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:57,119 Speaker 10: This is not a thing, but they're looking for a 380 00:20:57,280 --> 00:20:59,920 Speaker 10: national answer to this with a op ed on the 381 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,360 Speaker 10: Wall Street Journal this morning. In a sit down interview 382 00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,919 Speaker 10: with Bloomberg's and Marie hor Dern, who asked why this 383 00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:06,440 Speaker 10: is needed. 384 00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:11,639 Speaker 1: Here's Ted Cruzma Supreme Court decision came out. There was 385 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:13,480 Speaker 1: a lot of confusion, there was a lot of fear, 386 00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:15,720 Speaker 1: there was a lot of misunderstanding, and people did not 387 00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:19,080 Speaker 1: want anything to threaten IBF. I agree with that, Katie 388 00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,320 Speaker 1: agrees with that, and so we came together and said, 389 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:25,480 Speaker 1: let's draft a simple, straightforward federal bill that creates a 390 00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 1: federal right that you, as a parent, have a right 391 00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:32,199 Speaker 1: to have access to IVF. If you want to have 392 00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:34,960 Speaker 1: a child and you need medical assistance to do so, 393 00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:37,679 Speaker 1: that should be your right. This is a bill I 394 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:41,679 Speaker 1: think that should be overwhelmingly by partisan. The Senate should 395 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:44,080 Speaker 1: pass this bill one hundred to nothing. We'll see if 396 00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:46,199 Speaker 1: they do or not, but on the merits, that's what 397 00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:46,760 Speaker 1: should happen. 398 00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:48,640 Speaker 5: GD. 399 00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:52,320 Speaker 4: Is this any different than what we're seeing Democrats do 400 00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:55,840 Speaker 4: with the border. We're certainly tackling two of the most 401 00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,919 Speaker 4: divisive issues in the twenty twenty four campaign here. 402 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:04,280 Speaker 9: Absolutely, you know, I do see differences. The similarities or 403 00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:07,639 Speaker 9: these are both election year bills. But the reality is 404 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,600 Speaker 9: Republicans are in this position, and we are in a 405 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:14,720 Speaker 9: position in our country where we are being told that 406 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:18,560 Speaker 9: women and their fetuses have the same rights under the Constitution. 407 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:22,720 Speaker 9: Because of the rights push on Row and because of 408 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:26,119 Speaker 9: the overturning of Dobbs. It was a fringe legal theory. 409 00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:30,520 Speaker 9: It has now burst up into a national discussion of 410 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:34,000 Speaker 9: which Republicans, to your point, are having a difficult time 411 00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,920 Speaker 9: at the ballot box and so they're trying to wiggle 412 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 9: their way out of it. Of course, we saw in 413 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:41,879 Speaker 9: the bill, and Anne Marie brought this up in her 414 00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:46,359 Speaker 9: interview with Senator about Senator Tammy Duckworth's bill and the 415 00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:50,080 Speaker 9: response from Cindy Hyde Smith when she blocks it was 416 00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:52,879 Speaker 9: while she wants women and men to be able to 417 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 9: have access to IVF, she believes human rights or human 418 00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 9: life should be protected, and that's the problem Republicans find 419 00:22:59,880 --> 00:23:02,920 Speaker 9: that sells in people like Cyndy Hyde Smith, and that's 420 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:04,919 Speaker 9: why she blocked that bill. Will have to see what 421 00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 9: she does on this one. 422 00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:11,600 Speaker 3: Well, Chapin if they're trying to get it protecting IVF 423 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:16,600 Speaker 3: in virtual fetilization specific fertilization specifically. Obviously, that is a 424 00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:21,400 Speaker 3: very narrow targeted bill in this wider question of reproductive rates, 425 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:24,719 Speaker 3: which seemingly is how increasingly President Biden is framing it. 426 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:28,440 Speaker 3: It's not just about the issue of production of abortion 427 00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:32,760 Speaker 3: but overall reproductive rights. Is one bill on IVF going 428 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,360 Speaker 3: to be able to fix the messaging problem for Republicans 429 00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:38,000 Speaker 3: on the wider issue. 430 00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:41,840 Speaker 10: I don't think so, but I do think you know, 431 00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,320 Speaker 10: I do see some differences. Yes, this is an election 432 00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:48,960 Speaker 10: year bill. Yes this is done because Republicans have an 433 00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:51,679 Speaker 10: issue on this, but it is a substantive fixed to 434 00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,320 Speaker 10: one particular problem. And one of the problems that happens 435 00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,240 Speaker 10: all the time, the one to go back to something 436 00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 10: earlier that I was asked about, you know, whether these 437 00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:03,639 Speaker 10: elect year bills are gonna have any effect. One of 438 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:05,840 Speaker 10: the problems is they get loaded up and it's not 439 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,040 Speaker 10: as clean it's not as clean cut. And we've been 440 00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:11,520 Speaker 10: through this rodeo before, so the American people know that 441 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:14,760 Speaker 10: when an abortion bill is coming to you know, if 442 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:18,160 Speaker 10: Ted Cruz is going to get as abortion bill considered, 443 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:22,560 Speaker 10: it's going to go way farther once everyone else has 444 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,760 Speaker 10: their say in it. Same thing with the immigration bills 445 00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 10: that have been raised in voter a punt like there's 446 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,520 Speaker 10: some fixes, but then they get laiden down. Sometimes it's 447 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:35,439 Speaker 10: or sometimes it's other things, and there's overreach. It seems 448 00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:39,080 Speaker 10: that neither party can just do a simple bill and 449 00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:40,520 Speaker 10: introduce it and get it. 450 00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:41,000 Speaker 5: Passed, right. 451 00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:44,240 Speaker 10: It always comes out looking crazy, and that's you know 452 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:47,440 Speaker 10: why nothing ever gets done. So I do think there's 453 00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:50,000 Speaker 10: all those issues that go into it, though, I would 454 00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,040 Speaker 10: just say, on the Republican bill, you know, it's one 455 00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,480 Speaker 10: of those things. Do we want to protect the right 456 00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:55,080 Speaker 10: to IVF? 457 00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:55,840 Speaker 5: I mean, yes or no. 458 00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:58,800 Speaker 10: It's pretty simple. We could just do a clean bill 459 00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:00,440 Speaker 10: on that, or we could complicate. They didn't have a 460 00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:02,520 Speaker 10: go nowhere. I think we know where. 461 00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:02,800 Speaker 9: It's going to go. 462 00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:06,960 Speaker 4: I guess it is indicative, as we mentioned in the 463 00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 4: outset though, of the congressional agenda here, Genie, is there 464 00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:13,520 Speaker 4: anything worth paying attention to between now and November? 465 00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:17,280 Speaker 9: Oh, of course, a lot to pay attention to, but 466 00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,760 Speaker 9: probably not much action on the floor in Congress beyond 467 00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:23,359 Speaker 9: these types of messaging bills. You know, I think the 468 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:26,760 Speaker 9: big question in my mind is about funding for next year. 469 00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:29,520 Speaker 9: But I don't think we're going to get very far 470 00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:32,480 Speaker 9: at least this summer on that. But you know, my 471 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:34,800 Speaker 9: hope and prayer would be that they could do it 472 00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:37,760 Speaker 9: a lot quicker than they did last year. But don't 473 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:38,320 Speaker 9: hold me to. 474 00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:43,840 Speaker 3: That, all right, we won't. Geenie Shanzeno, Bloomberg Politics contributor 475 00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:46,320 Speaker 3: and senior Democracy Fellow with the Center for the Study 476 00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:48,439 Speaker 3: of the Presidency in Congress, thank you for joining us 477 00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:51,880 Speaker 3: alongside Chap and Faye today. He's Republican strategist and managing 478 00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:56,880 Speaker 3: director at ACTAM. 479 00:25:57,119 --> 00:26:00,640 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 480 00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:03,760 Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then 481 00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:07,280 Speaker 2: Rouno with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 482 00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:15,400 Speaker 2: you get your podcasts. A watch us live on YouTube. 483 00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:15,440 Speaker 4: As we turn our attention to a whole different policy, 484 00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:19,919 Speaker 4: and that is foreign policy. The operation that's happening in 485 00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:23,919 Speaker 4: the waters off of Gaza, this temporary peer that the 486 00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:26,680 Speaker 4: United States has built at great cost to try to 487 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,720 Speaker 4: get humanitarian aid into Gaza and around some of the 488 00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:31,640 Speaker 4: choke points that we've seen on land. There are still 489 00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:33,760 Speaker 4: a lot of questions, Kiley, about whether this is working. 490 00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:35,920 Speaker 4: But there's actually some great reporting in the New York 491 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,679 Speaker 4: Times today, now that it has been put in place, 492 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:42,680 Speaker 4: aid starts entering Gaza through US built peer, but officials 493 00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:44,720 Speaker 4: say it is not enough, and based on our prior 494 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:48,080 Speaker 4: conversations with Cindy McCain at the World Food Program, we 495 00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:49,160 Speaker 4: have a long way to. 496 00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,919 Speaker 3: Go because we're talking here about hundreds of thousands of 497 00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:55,160 Speaker 3: people essentially on the brink of famine. Can you get 498 00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:57,440 Speaker 3: enough aid in to match the scale of the need 499 00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:00,640 Speaker 3: is really the question. And sure this flow peer may 500 00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,320 Speaker 3: go some way into trying to bridge that gap, but 501 00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:06,040 Speaker 3: can it go all the way? The answer is probably not. 502 00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:08,320 Speaker 3: But let's get an experts perspective on this now, and 503 00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 3: please to say joining us here on balance of power. 504 00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:13,399 Speaker 3: Dave Harden the managing director at Georgetown Strategy Group. He 505 00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:16,920 Speaker 3: is also former USAID Mission Director to the West Bank 506 00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:19,960 Speaker 3: and Gaza and served as a senior advisor to President 507 00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:23,520 Speaker 3: Barack Obama's Special Envoy for Middle East Peace. Dave, thank 508 00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,879 Speaker 3: you so much for coming here to Bloomberg Television and Radio. 509 00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:31,320 Speaker 3: Just how far in your mind does this peer get 510 00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 3: us toward the goal of being able to provide food 511 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:38,440 Speaker 3: aid at scale for those in Gaza. Surely it makes 512 00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:40,760 Speaker 3: a difference, but just how consequential of one. 513 00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:44,600 Speaker 11: It's not enough, and I think you light it out. 514 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:49,440 Speaker 11: So Cindy McCain, the Republican, the wife of John McCain, 515 00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:52,919 Speaker 11: a strong supporter of Israel historically the head of the 516 00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:57,600 Speaker 11: World Food Program, said that Gaza is facing famine and 517 00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:02,600 Speaker 11: that famine is creeping south. On the Biden administration side, 518 00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:06,399 Speaker 11: Samantha Power has also said the same. So what needs 519 00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:11,800 Speaker 11: to happen is every crossing, all the time, without limit, 520 00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:15,959 Speaker 11: not includes Rafa and cam shlom Ares, Route ninety six 521 00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:20,639 Speaker 11: and more, plus the peer. We need it all. And 522 00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,679 Speaker 11: by the way, the more access points you have, the 523 00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:27,959 Speaker 11: least valuable anyone particular access point is, and so that 524 00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:30,400 Speaker 11: reduces risk and chance of attack. 525 00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:36,480 Speaker 4: I appreciate the comprehensive nature of your answer there, Dave, 526 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:40,640 Speaker 4: but specifically with the peer, this was just anchored in 527 00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:45,800 Speaker 4: place on Friday and an important step here to completing 528 00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,240 Speaker 4: this maritime corridor. 529 00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:49,720 Speaker 5: How much time. 530 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,920 Speaker 4: Will you give this before you actually judge whether this 531 00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:54,280 Speaker 4: is a successful operation. 532 00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:58,360 Speaker 11: I mean, I think we need to measure it now 533 00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:02,320 Speaker 11: because famine is now. But addition, any food coming in 534 00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:07,320 Speaker 11: is an addition, it's an additive component and it's coming 535 00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:10,440 Speaker 11: into the middle. The other reason why I actually like 536 00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,280 Speaker 11: this is because it sets a precedent facts on the ground, 537 00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:16,440 Speaker 11: so to speak, in favor of the Palestinians, where food 538 00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:19,840 Speaker 11: and commodity and basic imports can come in through a 539 00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:25,840 Speaker 11: maritime route. But again, you know, the proof ultimately will 540 00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:29,080 Speaker 11: be the results as it relates to famine and violence, 541 00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:32,760 Speaker 11: and this peer will not solve the fundamentals. 542 00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:36,880 Speaker 3: Well two, that exact point on the fundamentals, Dave, you say, 543 00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:39,360 Speaker 3: famine is now, is there any way to bring that 544 00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:42,920 Speaker 3: famine to an end without a temporary ceasefire agreement between 545 00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,400 Speaker 3: Israel and a MUSS because increasingly it looks like that 546 00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:46,480 Speaker 3: is farther out of reach. 547 00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:54,960 Speaker 11: Possibly. Let me just note that in the Israeli cities 548 00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:58,400 Speaker 11: of Ashkalon and Ashdahl, which are very close to Gaza, 549 00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:02,880 Speaker 11: there is no famine, and so famine is hyper localized 550 00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:09,840 Speaker 11: into this conflict zone. It's manufactured. Therefore it can be unmanufactured. 551 00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:13,400 Speaker 11: I actually have been arguing that the private sector needs 552 00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:16,240 Speaker 11: to be able to import, as they did prior to 553 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:20,800 Speaker 11: October seventh, the Gosen private sector, the Palestinian private sector, 554 00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:25,440 Speaker 11: they were able to solve the last mile. The UN 555 00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:30,640 Speaker 11: agencies and the donor community were never designed to provide 556 00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:34,240 Speaker 11: all food for all people indefinitely. So I do think 557 00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:36,640 Speaker 11: you need a cease fire for shore, but you need 558 00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:41,080 Speaker 11: a more comprehensive system and marketplace that allows more food 559 00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:43,840 Speaker 11: to just go in and it kind of reduces the 560 00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:46,520 Speaker 11: price and the cost you need to flood the market, 561 00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:47,240 Speaker 11: so to speak. 562 00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:52,360 Speaker 4: Spending time with Dave Harden from the Georgetown Strategy Group, 563 00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:54,640 Speaker 4: I want to get back Dave to the original premise here, 564 00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:57,840 Speaker 4: because it really is incredible what we're seeing the US 565 00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:01,320 Speaker 4: going to such lengths involving our millionlitarian a very expensive 566 00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:05,480 Speaker 4: operation to put this temporary peer in place, knowing of 567 00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:09,680 Speaker 4: course that our ally may be part of the problem. 568 00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:12,040 Speaker 4: Right Otherwise we wouldn't have had to go to this extreme. 569 00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:17,120 Speaker 4: The gates would be opening for our trucks. We may 570 00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:20,320 Speaker 4: not have had to resort to an air drop either. 571 00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:23,120 Speaker 4: So I guess I wonder at this point, when you 572 00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:26,880 Speaker 4: see the trucks coming in, even those that aren't allowed 573 00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:31,800 Speaker 4: to come in, is Israel still a threat to humanitarian aid? 574 00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:37,000 Speaker 4: Or is it about getting past hamas? 575 00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:39,720 Speaker 11: I mean, I do I think it's both, but the 576 00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:44,960 Speaker 11: primary responsibility rests with Israel. Israel is the occupying authority 577 00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:49,280 Speaker 11: of ourgaza, and so therefore the responsibility to mitigate famine 578 00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:53,200 Speaker 11: rests with them, and that requires all access from all 579 00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:58,120 Speaker 11: points all the time. And again it's just separately the 580 00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:01,280 Speaker 11: case that we have the flood the marketplace. But let 581 00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:04,960 Speaker 11: me just point out an obvious cognitive dissonance. The US 582 00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:10,920 Speaker 11: is funding the bombs, the attacks by Israel, the food, 583 00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:15,760 Speaker 11: the peer, all sides of this chaotic situation. And I 584 00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:18,800 Speaker 11: do think that the gap between Net and Yahoo and 585 00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:22,640 Speaker 11: Biden is deepening. And I like the fact that Gallant 586 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:26,160 Speaker 11: has kind of thrown that's the defense minister and in 587 00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:29,520 Speaker 11: the warkout and on Israel side threw down a gauntlet 588 00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:31,920 Speaker 11: to Net and Yahoo saying that there had to be 589 00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:36,800 Speaker 11: a day after plan. Without a day after planning, Homos 590 00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:41,160 Speaker 11: stays and power, the conflict continues and the famine will 591 00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:43,640 Speaker 11: not be resolved. And at the at the end of this, 592 00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:47,600 Speaker 11: we have two point two million people that are not 593 00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:51,000 Speaker 11: only in famine, but bearing grievances that will last generations 594 00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:55,000 Speaker 11: and by the way, malnutrition that will last a lifetime. 595 00:32:57,080 --> 00:32:59,720 Speaker 3: Dave, we got news today from a prosecutor from the 596 00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:03,160 Speaker 3: Intern National Criminal Court. He was asked for applied for 597 00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:07,480 Speaker 3: arrest warrants to not just officials from HAMAS, but including 598 00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:11,600 Speaker 3: Israeli officials and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is one of him. 599 00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:14,680 Speaker 3: And in this request, in the statement in part it reads, 600 00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:17,320 Speaker 3: on the basis of evidence collected and examined by my office, 601 00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:20,560 Speaker 3: I have reasonable grounds to believe that Benjamin Netanyahu goes 602 00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:25,440 Speaker 3: on to say has responsibility for the following war crimes. 603 00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:29,280 Speaker 3: The first one listed Dave is starvation of civilians as 604 00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:32,120 Speaker 3: a method of warfare as a war crime, contrary to 605 00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:37,240 Speaker 3: the statute. Is that a valid assessment in your mind? 606 00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:43,160 Speaker 11: I mean, the International Criminal Court is not going to 607 00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:48,880 Speaker 11: be the solution here and it's not going to bring 608 00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:52,080 Speaker 11: about a resolution more quickly. I agree with the Biden 609 00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:59,360 Speaker 11: administration on this, But the burden of mitigating famine, which 610 00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:03,280 Speaker 11: is slightly different than what ICC is saying one hundred percent, 611 00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:08,920 Speaker 11: rests with Israel as occupying authority. Just there's just no 612 00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:11,759 Speaker 11: way beyond that. Whether or not, you know, at the 613 00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:14,800 Speaker 11: end of the day, they're they're culpable as a legal 614 00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:19,239 Speaker 11: matter in an international court that probably doesn't have jurisdiction 615 00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:23,000 Speaker 11: and isn't widely recognized except in you know, a host 616 00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:24,800 Speaker 11: of other countries, but certainly not in Israel in the 617 00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:28,080 Speaker 11: United States. I don't know if that matters, but matters 618 00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:33,160 Speaker 11: I think will be a diplomatic solution where Netanya who 619 00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:42,040 Speaker 11: sees a path forward that includes a governing Poalestanian authority 620 00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:46,879 Speaker 11: in Gaza, a ceasefire, a return of the hostages, and 621 00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:50,239 Speaker 11: really very quickly an end to the famine. So, I, 622 00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:54,880 Speaker 11: you know, the IC ces not really the analysis. It 623 00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:57,200 Speaker 11: could be right, it might not be right. It's not 624 00:34:57,280 --> 00:34:59,799 Speaker 11: really the analysis that I think is helpful and kind 625 00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:03,160 Speaker 11: of unwinding and blunting this famine. 626 00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:07,760 Speaker 4: He's former USAID Mission director of the West Bank and Gaza, 627 00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:10,640 Speaker 4: so he knows what he speaks. Steve Harden, it's great 628 00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:13,279 Speaker 4: to have you back. Dave now Managing director at Georgetown 629 00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:17,080 Speaker 4: Strategy Group, and always fascinating conversation kale As. We just 630 00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:18,760 Speaker 4: try to get a sense of what's going on the ground. 631 00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:20,600 Speaker 4: It's not always that simple. 632 00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:22,040 Speaker 5: Here in Washington. 633 00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:25,719 Speaker 4: We're hearing new calls now, additional calls for the resignation 634 00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:28,920 Speaker 4: of the head of the FDIC. This is something we 635 00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:32,399 Speaker 4: spent time on last week Kayley. Of course, the chair 636 00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:36,120 Speaker 4: Gruenberg was up there for two brutal days of testimony 637 00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:39,319 Speaker 4: House and Senate last week. He was grilled by lawmakers, 638 00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:41,799 Speaker 4: many of them asked for his resignation. Some even went 639 00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:44,680 Speaker 4: further to call for the stripping of his pension. But 640 00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:47,360 Speaker 4: now the chairman is speaking, shared Brown, along with others. 641 00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:51,600 Speaker 3: The Democrat of the Senate Banking Committee the chair shared 642 00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:54,280 Speaker 3: Brown today saying in a statement, there must be fundamental 643 00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:58,359 Speaker 3: changes at the FDIC. Those changes begin with new leadership. 644 00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:00,960 Speaker 3: That's why I'm calling on the present cident to immediately 645 00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:04,680 Speaker 3: nominate a new chair who can lead the FDIC at 646 00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:08,640 Speaker 3: this challenging time. Again, this is a Democrat, very powerful 647 00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:12,120 Speaker 3: one in terms of financial regulator's oversight. 648 00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:16,600 Speaker 5: The scene is potentially the death knell when it comes 649 00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:19,160 Speaker 5: to his tenure. Ben Bain knows more than we do 650 00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:19,520 Speaker 5: about it. 651 00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:21,239 Speaker 4: He covers this for a living here at Bloomberg, and 652 00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:24,200 Speaker 4: Washington is with us now at the table. Are we 653 00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:26,840 Speaker 4: done here? Need a new leader at the FDIC? 654 00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:30,680 Speaker 12: Well, Sharon Brown coming out today and calling around the 655 00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:33,800 Speaker 12: White House to replace him is certainly a significant development. 656 00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:36,160 Speaker 12: I think some people thought if he was able to 657 00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:38,520 Speaker 12: make it through these, as you said, two brutal hearings 658 00:36:38,600 --> 00:36:41,000 Speaker 12: last week, maybe we would get a better sense if 659 00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:44,320 Speaker 12: he was able to kind of stick around for a while, 660 00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:47,480 Speaker 12: maybe make it over that really tough hump. Today this 661 00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:51,040 Speaker 12: injects a new sense of urgency. Last week we saw 662 00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:54,239 Speaker 12: Maxim Waters, who chairs the House Financial Services Department, who's 663 00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:56,879 Speaker 12: the top Democrat in the House Financial Services Committee, come 664 00:36:56,920 --> 00:36:59,360 Speaker 12: out and actually defends him. Elizabeth Warren also said that 665 00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:01,560 Speaker 12: he should stay. So there was kind of a feeling 666 00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:03,719 Speaker 12: that Democrats were going to kind of rally here, and 667 00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:06,360 Speaker 12: the White Houses avoided saying that he should indeed step 668 00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:09,120 Speaker 12: down or be replaced. But yeah, this is a pretty 669 00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:11,279 Speaker 12: significant development today politically, and. 670 00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:13,160 Speaker 3: It's not just Shared Brown who has come out today. 671 00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:17,080 Speaker 3: Sheila Bear, a former FDIC chair herself, posted on x 672 00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:18,920 Speaker 3: I have known and worked with the chair for years, 673 00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:21,279 Speaker 3: but goes on to say this controversy is hurting him 674 00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:23,279 Speaker 3: and his agency. For his own sake and everyone at 675 00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:26,680 Speaker 3: the FDICE, he should announce his intention to resign effective 676 00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:30,880 Speaker 3: with the appointment. The problem is ben if Marty Grimberg 677 00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:33,880 Speaker 3: goes out, who steps in, who can do so in 678 00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:36,040 Speaker 3: time to still try to wrap up the job. On 679 00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:38,600 Speaker 3: this administration's financial regulatory agenda. 680 00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:41,000 Speaker 12: That's a very big question. There is this kind of 681 00:37:41,080 --> 00:37:44,040 Speaker 12: broader political context here that we really can't divorce from 682 00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:46,920 Speaker 12: all this. The FDI, see, the FED and the Office 683 00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:50,399 Speaker 12: of the Controller Currency have proposed this big, sweeping plan 684 00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:53,439 Speaker 12: to increase capital requirements in Wall Street banks, and Marty 685 00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:56,040 Speaker 12: Grimberg is seen as a very important piece of getting 686 00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:58,439 Speaker 12: that done, and any hope of getting that done before 687 00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:03,880 Speaker 12: November certainly very complicated. Should he leave, resign be replaced, 688 00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:05,879 Speaker 12: whatever it might be, because then you would have two 689 00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:09,400 Speaker 12: two at this agency on the board, two Republicans, two democrats, 690 00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:13,000 Speaker 12: and Republicans have not shown a lot of love for 691 00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:15,080 Speaker 12: this proposal, if you will, to put it, to put. 692 00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:18,280 Speaker 4: It mildly well, and at the moment when we're seeing 693 00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:22,200 Speaker 4: some of the more ambitious approaches to that be scaled. 694 00:38:21,840 --> 00:38:24,560 Speaker 12: Back, right, So, I mean, this just adds a whole 695 00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:27,480 Speaker 12: new sense of kind of complexity to this plan. I mean, 696 00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:31,720 Speaker 12: and that plan really is kind of the cornerstone banking 697 00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:35,680 Speaker 12: regulation plan during the Biden administration, obviously coming off of 698 00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:39,319 Speaker 12: last year's regional banking crisis, this was really seen as 699 00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:41,600 Speaker 12: a really big thing that these regulars were going to 700 00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:44,200 Speaker 12: get done now without Martin Groomberg. If you were to 701 00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:46,440 Speaker 12: step down, if you were to be replaced or whatever 702 00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:48,440 Speaker 12: it might be, that gets a lot more complicated. 703 00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:50,360 Speaker 3: So, just to be clear, if someone were to be 704 00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:54,080 Speaker 3: put into an acting role, they can't cast a vote 705 00:38:54,320 --> 00:38:56,799 Speaker 3: on that. Shoretically, it has to be a confirmed chair. 706 00:38:57,120 --> 00:38:59,960 Speaker 12: So my understanding is that it would be too too 707 00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:02,960 Speaker 12: and then it would really be on the Biden administration 708 00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:06,319 Speaker 12: to quickly nominate and confirm someone to actually change the 709 00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:06,839 Speaker 12: balance there. 710 00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:08,320 Speaker 5: That's awfully important. 711 00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:10,320 Speaker 4: I mean, there has been reporting this morning that Jamie 712 00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:12,680 Speaker 4: Diamond is kind of getting what he wants here in 713 00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:14,640 Speaker 4: this case, or something closer to what he wants. 714 00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:16,000 Speaker 5: How would you frame them? 715 00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:20,120 Speaker 12: So, I mean so certainly, certainly the banks and bank 716 00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:24,080 Speaker 12: lobby pushed back vigorously against this, this capital plan. They 717 00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:28,400 Speaker 12: spent millions, and we saw ads on NFL games, we 718 00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:31,400 Speaker 12: saw CEOs testifying in Congress. We even saw small business 719 00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:34,239 Speaker 12: owners fanning out across Capitol Hill talking about how this 720 00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:38,080 Speaker 12: would potentially, you know this, they would say, impact their businesses. 721 00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:41,640 Speaker 12: So anything that slows that down or anything that changes 722 00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:43,960 Speaker 12: that plan is certainly a win for the big banks 723 00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:46,560 Speaker 12: because they have fought vigorously to you know, to keep 724 00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:47,480 Speaker 12: this from really taking. 725 00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:48,400 Speaker 5: Hold as it was proposed. 726 00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:50,960 Speaker 12: Now it could still change, It could still be altered 727 00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:54,800 Speaker 12: as it typically would be, and to to to understand, 728 00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:58,440 Speaker 12: both the FED Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr and 729 00:39:58,560 --> 00:40:01,359 Speaker 12: FED Chair j Powell have both said to expect broad 730 00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:04,000 Speaker 12: material changes to that plan. So we do expect some changes. 731 00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:06,120 Speaker 12: How far they go is the ultimate question? 732 00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:08,800 Speaker 3: All right? Ben Bain is always looking for the answer 733 00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:11,200 Speaker 3: to that question a lot with his team here at Bloomberg. 734 00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:14,120 Speaker 3: It governs financial regulation for us, Thank you so much. 735 00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:16,040 Speaker 3: So this really is the question, Joe, what is the 736 00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:18,520 Speaker 3: end game of the Basil three end game? And if 737 00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:21,600 Speaker 3: Martin Lumberg does indeed resign, is that wood. 738 00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:24,280 Speaker 4: Game be a wrinkle in this After all the months 739 00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:27,040 Speaker 4: that has gone into this, all the effort, it would. 740 00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:27,799 Speaker 5: Be quite remarkable. 741 00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:34,480 Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 742 00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:37,440 Speaker 4: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 743 00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:40,120 Speaker 4: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 744 00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:43,400 Speaker 4: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 745 00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:45,160 Speaker 4: at Bloomberg dot com.