1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:01,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to Zero. 2 00:00:01,240 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 2: I am Akshatrati. This week climate tech Hype or note. 3 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:23,400 Speaker 1: Breakthrough Energy Ventures is one of the biggest funders of 4 00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 1: early stage climate technologies, spending billions of dollars so far 5 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 1: with investments in more than one hundred and twenty startups. 6 00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:35,160 Speaker 1: Since Zero launched two years ago, we've featured a number 7 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 1: of companies that break Through Energy has invested in. You 8 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:40,520 Speaker 1: can find some of those episodes in the show notes. 9 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 1: But there's a brain trust behind Breakthrough Energy Ventures that 10 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 1: makes the decisions of what kinds of technologies they invested. 11 00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:52,240 Speaker 1: One of those people is Eric Toon. In his former life, 12 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 1: he was a professor of chemistry, which, as someone who's 13 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 1: studied chemistry, is something that always gets my attention. Over 14 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:01,560 Speaker 1: the years, I've talked to him plenty of times trying 15 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 1: to understand where exactly he sees the technology landscape going. 16 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 1: So for this episode, I wanted to bring you into 17 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 1: some of our chats to get his take on what 18 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 1: set of climate technologies he's hyped about, and what technologies 19 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:18,679 Speaker 1: he thinks the world shouldn't be hyped about, and why 20 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:21,759 Speaker 1: he thinks his set of technologies will not just work 21 00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 1: but also make money, because no longer is he just 22 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 1: a professor. He doesn't just assess the feasibility of a technology, 23 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:35,200 Speaker 1: but also the company's potential profitability. We touched on carbon removal, 24 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:40,559 Speaker 1: grit technologies, nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, and hydrogen. We also 25 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 1: talked about some of the companies he's most excited about. Eric, 26 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to the show. 27 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 3: It's great to be here. Thanks for having me. 28 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:02,480 Speaker 2: Now. 29 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 1: You were a tenured professor of chemistry and biochemistry at 30 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:10,920 Speaker 1: DECU University. A tenured position is a ticket for life 31 00:02:11,600 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 1: to do what you want. But you gave it up 32 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 1: to join Breakthrough Energy Ventures, and you joined as the 33 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 1: science lead. So Breakthrough Energy Ventures has been investing for 34 00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:24,360 Speaker 1: seven years. It has one hundred and twenty companies that 35 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:26,639 Speaker 1: it has invested in so far. A few of them 36 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:29,680 Speaker 1: have gone public. But you are still very much at 37 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:34,359 Speaker 1: the frontier of trying to seed ideas that are there 38 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:38,239 Speaker 1: in labs that need to be commercialized. How has your 39 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 1: thinking changed as a result of doing this for the 40 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 1: past seven years. 41 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 3: So I think that I knew sort of intellectually how 42 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:54,080 Speaker 3: different this space was than tech investing, how difficult it 43 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:59,119 Speaker 3: was to scale things. Things in this space don't scale 44 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 3: the way that apps or computers scale. Right, this is 45 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:08,919 Speaker 3: steel in the ground stuff, and it's in industries where 46 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 3: margins are razor thin, where there are existing interests that 47 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 3: are enormous. I knew all of those sorts of things intellectually, 48 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 3: but I understand them in a much more visceral way. Now, 49 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 3: you take an idea that you think could have legs, 50 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 3: and you spend seven or eight or ten years and 51 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 3: invest three hundred million, four hundred million dollars and get 52 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 3: it to the point where it really looks like this 53 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 3: could scale. And now I have to turn around and 54 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 3: raise a billion dollars to do a first of a 55 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 3: kind plant and the marketplace. Of course, since these are commodities, right, 56 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 3: electrons are the most undifferentiated commodities on the face of 57 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,760 Speaker 3: the earth. And so the reaction is not, oh, that's 58 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 3: unbelievably cool. The reaction is, we'll see if you can 59 00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 3: make it five percent cheaper than the way we make it. Now, 60 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 3: give me a call. I knew those things that will 61 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 3: actually but to be in the middle of it and 62 00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 3: to really feel it viscerally, that changes you. 63 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 1: Now, over the years, we've talked about a number of 64 00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 1: scientific areas or trying to invest in climate solutions. I 65 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 1: wanted to pick five areas, and I wanted to play 66 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 1: a game with you this time. Let's call it hype 67 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 1: or not, and I'll define it because I think hype 68 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 1: or not can be very broadly assumed, whether it's in 69 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 1: conversation or dollars, or in sheer number of startups that exist. 70 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:33,600 Speaker 1: So let's be specific about whether you think in these 71 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 1: five areas of technologies, which we will take sequentially, there 72 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:41,919 Speaker 1: is either too much investment or too little investment going. 73 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:46,039 Speaker 1: So let's start with carbon removal. Now, the scientific case 74 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 1: for carbon removal is strong, and it's strong because we've 75 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:52,160 Speaker 1: really not acted on climate change. And that means if 76 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:55,359 Speaker 1: we want to keep to our climate goals as agreed 77 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:57,719 Speaker 1: in the Paris Agreement or not have a planet as 78 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:00,240 Speaker 1: hot as it already is, we're going to have to 79 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 1: draw down some of the greenhouse gas emissions that are 80 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:05,800 Speaker 1: already sitting in the atmosphere. But we don't need to 81 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:08,240 Speaker 1: do it now. We just need to have the technologies 82 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:10,360 Speaker 1: ready to be able to do it over the next 83 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:15,120 Speaker 1: few decades. This industry has been unlike any other industry. 84 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 1: Most climate technologies start in labs, they get government support, 85 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 1: then they are commercialized through government regulations that create a 86 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 1: market for that technology, and then they produce something that 87 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 1: people want. Solar panels are a good example. Electric cars 88 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:35,360 Speaker 1: another good example. Carbon removal was not really supported as 89 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:39,920 Speaker 1: much by government. It was private industry, mostly the tech industry, 90 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 1: that was interested in pursuing carbon removal as a path 91 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 1: to try and meet its climate goals. And yes, now 92 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:49,440 Speaker 1: it has government support, but at the end of the day, 93 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 1: what it's producing is not a commodity that people want. 94 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,920 Speaker 1: It's a commodity that the world needs. And we are 95 00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 1: at this moment where there are by one count eight 96 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 1: hundred undred carbon removal startups in the world. And again, 97 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 1: if we look at HiPE cycles, there can be HiPE 98 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 1: cycles where lots and lots of companies exist, hundreds of them. 99 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 1: Many of them will fail at the end of the day, 100 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 1: some will survive and scale up the solution. But do 101 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:19,279 Speaker 1: you think at this moment we're investing too much in 102 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:20,160 Speaker 1: carbon removal. 103 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:23,599 Speaker 3: I think that we need to be a lot smarter 104 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:26,960 Speaker 3: about how we invest in carbon removal. The first thing 105 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:30,320 Speaker 3: that I would do is to bifurcate the market and 106 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:32,479 Speaker 3: the way I would bifurcate the market is there is 107 00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:35,359 Speaker 3: certainly going to be a significant amount of carbon capture 108 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 3: for just sequestration, for simple removal, however you end up 109 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:41,960 Speaker 3: doing that, But there's also going to be a large 110 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:45,560 Speaker 3: market for carbon as a reagent as a resource as 111 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:48,960 Speaker 3: we start to make liquid fuels that are zero carbon, 112 00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:52,360 Speaker 3: as we start to think about making plastics and materials 113 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:55,239 Speaker 3: that are zero carbon. So I think that the first 114 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 3: thing you need to do is to kind of bifurcate 115 00:06:57,279 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 3: this market into a market for sequest and a market 116 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,720 Speaker 3: for carbon as a reagent. And I think there's very 117 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 3: different requirements on the material there, and I think that 118 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 3: there's very different price points, So that that is the 119 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 3: first thing that I would do if we think about 120 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 3: the carbon market for sequestration, and you know this is 121 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:20,800 Speaker 3: narrated that we've invested in. The challenge that I have 122 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:26,239 Speaker 3: here is there are fundamental questions about what you're doing 123 00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 3: that are questions that society needs to answer, and society 124 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:35,240 Speaker 3: hasn't really thought about those questions. So let me be 125 00:07:35,360 --> 00:07:39,920 Speaker 3: a little bit. You know, clear, people pay for certainty. 126 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:43,000 Speaker 3: If you pay me one hundred dollars to capture a 127 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 3: ton of carbon. And after I do that, you come 128 00:07:47,040 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 3: back and say, prove to me that you captured a 129 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:51,640 Speaker 3: ton of carbon. I paid you for a ton of carbon. 130 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:54,720 Speaker 3: Proved to me that you actually captured a ton of carbon. Well, 131 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:57,520 Speaker 3: if I'm running climb works or if I'm running carbon engineering, 132 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 3: I can show you all the log data. I can 133 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 3: show you the machine worked. I can show you how 134 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:05,000 Speaker 3: those machines were qualified. I can show you all those things, 135 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:06,880 Speaker 3: and I can convince you to a very high degree 136 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 3: of certainty that I captured a ton of carbon that 137 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:11,840 Speaker 3: you paid me for. And if you come back to 138 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 3: me in five years time and you say I paid 139 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 3: you to keep that carbon, can you tell me where 140 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 3: that carbon is? Well, I can show you where that 141 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 3: carbon is. Perhaps I've done underground storage. I can tell 142 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 3: you what the volume that I've stored it in is. 143 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 3: I can show you the pressures and I can say 144 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 3: that it's there, or perhaps I mineralized it, and I 145 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:33,319 Speaker 3: can show you exactly where I did, and I can 146 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:35,120 Speaker 3: show you the well logs. I can do all of 147 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 3: those things. I can convince you to a very high 148 00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 3: degree of certainty. But that costs a lot of money 149 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:41,600 Speaker 3: right now. That costs somewhere between five hundred and one 150 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 3: thousand dollars a ton. We hope someday we can get 151 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:45,520 Speaker 3: it down below that, but that's where we are today. 152 00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 3: On the other hand, I can put all of mine 153 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:52,320 Speaker 3: on beaches and I can watch it disappear. And now 154 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:54,560 Speaker 3: if you come to me and say I paid you 155 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:56,880 Speaker 3: for a ton of carbon, can you show me that 156 00:08:56,960 --> 00:09:00,120 Speaker 3: you actually captured a ton of carbon? Well, I can 157 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:03,080 Speaker 3: show you the certificate of analysis of the olivine that 158 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 3: I put on the beach, so you know what the 159 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 3: calcium magnesium concentration was, And I can say, you know, 160 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 3: it's gone. It's in the ocean. It reacted. So that's 161 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:14,480 Speaker 3: my proof is I you know, I can tell you 162 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 3: how much calcium magnesium there was and it's gone. Maybe 163 00:09:19,080 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 3: you're good with that, maybe you're not. And when you 164 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 3: come back to me in five years time and you say, well, 165 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 3: tell me where that ton of carbon that I paid 166 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 3: for is, you can say, well, the solubility product of 167 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 3: calcium carbonate is, you know, And so Licia Telia's principle 168 00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:35,080 Speaker 3: says it must be at the bottom of the ocean. 169 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 3: And you can decide for yourself whether or not you 170 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 3: think that that's proof. But that costs ten dollars a ton. 171 00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:45,640 Speaker 3: And now I can do ocean fertilization. I can go 172 00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:48,720 Speaker 3: dump iron in the ocean. And now when you come 173 00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 3: back to me and you say, prove to me you 174 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:53,560 Speaker 3: captured a ton of carbon, I can say I have 175 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:56,319 Speaker 3: no idea, but it must have been a lot, because 176 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:59,319 Speaker 3: you could see the algel bloom from space, right, So 177 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:01,280 Speaker 3: it must the bit a lot, but I don't really 178 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 3: know how much. And if you come back to me 179 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:05,160 Speaker 3: in five years time and say, well, where's that ton 180 00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 3: of carbon that I paid you for, you sort of 181 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:12,080 Speaker 3: say I don't really have any idea, but that costs 182 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:16,760 Speaker 3: pennies a ton. And so society has to make decisions 183 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 3: not about whether or not we have to do carbon capture. 184 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:22,920 Speaker 3: I don't think there's any real discussion about that, But 185 00:10:23,000 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 3: what do you actually mean by carbon capture? What constitutes 186 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:29,840 Speaker 3: certainty with regards to what I was able to capture 187 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:33,200 Speaker 3: and with regards to where it is? And does society 188 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:35,319 Speaker 3: want to pay five hundred dollars a ton to climb 189 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 3: works to be absolutely certain I captured and to know 190 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:41,319 Speaker 3: exactly where it is, or does society want to pay 191 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 3: ten cents a ton and hope for the best, and 192 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 3: we'll check again in thirty years and see where we are. 193 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 3: And so I think the problem is without an understanding 194 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:52,439 Speaker 3: of what that market looks like, there is no evidence 195 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:55,800 Speaker 3: anywhere at all that society is willing to pay anywhere 196 00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:57,720 Speaker 3: close to even one hundred dollars a ton. 197 00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:01,320 Speaker 1: Right, So there are two dimensions. One is certainty, but 198 00:11:01,400 --> 00:11:05,000 Speaker 1: the other is demand, and on both that is uncertainty. 199 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 3: Tremendous uncertainty. So how do I invest in a company 200 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:09,360 Speaker 3: if I don't know what the relevant cost point is? Right? 201 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 3: You know, I'm pretty sure that if you can do 202 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 3: carbon capture at one hundred dollars a ton and it 203 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 3: is pure approximately CO two, there is going to be 204 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:18,680 Speaker 3: a market for that. And the CO two is a 205 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:22,319 Speaker 3: reagent game to make electro fuels and things like that. 206 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 3: So I feel confident about that. But you know, carbon 207 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 3: capture from the perspective of sequestration and just taking it 208 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:30,320 Speaker 3: out of the atmosphere, I don't know if the price 209 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 3: points one hundred dollars a ton or ten cents a ton. 210 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 3: So how do I build a company? How do I 211 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:36,960 Speaker 3: invest in a company? It is literally a race to 212 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:38,719 Speaker 3: the bottom. I mean, if you've got a technology that 213 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:41,199 Speaker 3: works at eighty dollars a ton, If I look at 214 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:43,520 Speaker 3: the supply and demand curves and where they cross, there's 215 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:45,559 Speaker 3: some market at eighty dollars a ton. But if somebody 216 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:47,760 Speaker 3: comes up with something at fifty dollars a ton, and 217 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:51,679 Speaker 3: so I think you're just necessarily running down that cost curve. 218 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 3: This is such a big area. The need is so 219 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:56,840 Speaker 3: enormous that the idea that there is going to be 220 00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 3: a single, monolithic technology that will rule them all as 221 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:01,240 Speaker 3: almost certainly not the case. 222 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,559 Speaker 1: Now let's turn to the grid. We know that one 223 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 1: of the ways in which we are going to decarbonize 224 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:09,960 Speaker 1: is to electrify as much as possible and make that 225 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:13,840 Speaker 1: electricity from zero carbon sources, and that's going to require 226 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:18,079 Speaker 1: a bigger grid. Investments around the world on the grid 227 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:21,640 Speaker 1: just to build it have not quite got to the 228 00:12:21,679 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 1: place where they need to be on trajectory for net zero. 229 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:28,600 Speaker 1: But within the grid there are technologies that could make 230 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:31,680 Speaker 1: that job easier. So within the grid, where do you 231 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:35,760 Speaker 1: think the technologies are hyped and where do you think 232 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:39,600 Speaker 1: they are under hyped that there is potential for more investments. 233 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 3: I think there's two areas that at least we at 234 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 3: Breakthrough are especially interested in, and I think one is 235 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:49,880 Speaker 3: fairly widely recognized, in the other perhaps not so much. 236 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 3: The first is reconductoring existing right aways. You mentioned that 237 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 3: we're going to have to mass electrify everything implies massively 238 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 3: expanding the grid, so you're just understand what that means. 239 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:05,839 Speaker 3: That means something like four x the existing grid. It's extraordinary, 240 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,440 Speaker 3: and that energy has to be moved. And you know 241 00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 3: in the United States today it takes on the order 242 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:16,640 Speaker 3: of sixteen years to permit a new transmission right away, 243 00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 3: and so that really means that reconductoring existing right aways 244 00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:23,280 Speaker 3: is going to be a big, big deal. Right that'll 245 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:26,960 Speaker 3: allow them to carry more power on those existing right away. 246 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 3: So new technologies that allow you to move much more 247 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:36,080 Speaker 3: power down existing right aways are very interesting. DC transmission 248 00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:40,200 Speaker 3: and lines that can be placed along other public right aways, 249 00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 3: rail lines and things like that. That's also an area 250 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 3: of interest, although as you know, there's challenges to ACDC 251 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 3: inter conversion and things like that. But I think there's 252 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:51,640 Speaker 3: fairly broad recognition that as we electrify everything and the 253 00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 3: grid grows, that we're going to have to find better 254 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:59,360 Speaker 3: ways of moving more energy down existing right aways. The 255 00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:02,520 Speaker 3: one that I think think there's perhaps less recognition of 256 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:06,199 Speaker 3: are the challenges of operating the grid. If you think 257 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 3: about how we operate the grid today, we model the 258 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:14,640 Speaker 3: grid supply and demand typically a day in advance, and 259 00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 3: in the old way that we did things that was 260 00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 3: relatively straightforward. Right supply was mostly dispatchable and it could 261 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:25,480 Speaker 3: be scheduled. There's not very much storage in the grid. 262 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,560 Speaker 3: I could model the distribution grid just as a load. 263 00:14:28,600 --> 00:14:32,320 Speaker 3: There's no two way flows of energy. Variation in demand 264 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 3: from day to day is relatively modest, and it's related 265 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 3: to things that are easy to model, the weather, the season, 266 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:44,880 Speaker 3: things like that. As you simultaneously grow and decarbonize the grid, 267 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:47,560 Speaker 3: all of that stuff goes out the window. As you 268 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:51,040 Speaker 3: start using more intermittent wind and solar and not using 269 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:55,440 Speaker 3: rotating machinery for the generation of electricity, inertia and the 270 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:58,160 Speaker 3: grid goes down. It makes it hard to keep it stable. 271 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:01,800 Speaker 3: Generation resources are play where the resource is not necessarily 272 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:05,160 Speaker 3: where the load is, and transmission pathways change from day 273 00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 3: to day depending on the weather. There's a lot more storage. 274 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 3: There's people doing distributed generations, so there's two way flows 275 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 3: of electricity. I can't think about the distribution grid just 276 00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 3: as all of that stuff goes out the window. And 277 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:19,120 Speaker 3: we saw in the LA one hundred study, the study 278 00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:22,120 Speaker 3: where Enrail partnered with the city of Los Angeles to 279 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 3: think about how we could decarbonize the Los Angeles grid, 280 00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 3: just how hard that is to do. People, I think 281 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 3: sometimes think about the grid as an afterthought. Its wires 282 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 3: hung on poles and so, yeah, sure we got to 283 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 3: build that, but it's really more appropriate to think of 284 00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:39,400 Speaker 3: the grid as a machine. It's the largest and most 285 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 3: complex machine that humankind has ever built. And so before 286 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 3: we can expand the grid, really at the outset, we 287 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:48,760 Speaker 3: have to think about not only how are we going 288 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:50,360 Speaker 3: to build a grid, but how are we going to 289 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:53,600 Speaker 3: operate the grid? And so this is a new area 290 00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 3: of interest and emphasis for us. A significant part of 291 00:15:56,800 --> 00:15:59,480 Speaker 3: that is going to be done on the philanthropic side, 292 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 3: a pretty grid modeling effort that we're standing up now. 293 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 3: But this is an area that I think has received 294 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:08,240 Speaker 3: not nearly enough investment, not nearly enough attention, and it's 295 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 3: really treated more as an afterthought. So that's an area 296 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 3: of the grid that I think needs an enormous amount 297 00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:14,520 Speaker 3: of attention and effort. 298 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:18,280 Speaker 1: The biggest machine that humans have ever built, but also 299 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 1: the oldest machine in that sense. The grid has been 300 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 1: continuously being built since the late nineteenth century, and many 301 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 1: of the things that it uses even today are things 302 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:32,640 Speaker 1: that were set up back then. Of course there have 303 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 1: been changes, but fundamentally it's doing the same thing that 304 00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:38,880 Speaker 1: I was doing four hundred years ago. So now trying 305 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:42,160 Speaker 1: to power the grid with clean energy, we don't want 306 00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 1: to talk about renewables. They're sort of on their own 307 00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:48,960 Speaker 1: doing their thing, but because of their variability, there is 308 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:53,880 Speaker 1: desire to have more dispatchable clean energy on the grid. 309 00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:56,960 Speaker 1: You could do that in a few ways. You could 310 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,800 Speaker 1: have hydropower, but there are physical limitations on the hoimuch 311 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:04,320 Speaker 1: hydropower there will be. You can do geothermal, and previously 312 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:06,639 Speaker 1: it was thought there are limits to geothermal because of 313 00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:10,679 Speaker 1: the geography of where geothermal is found. But newer technologies 314 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:14,640 Speaker 1: are opening up more areas. But there's an old technology 315 00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:18,600 Speaker 1: that keeps coming back up into the conversation, and that's nuclear. 316 00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:22,000 Speaker 1: And let's split that conversation into two. One that exists, 317 00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:24,880 Speaker 1: which is nuclear fission, and one that could exist, which 318 00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 1: is nuclear fusion. So let's start with splitting the atoms 319 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 1: within nuclear fission. We've gone from having first generation, second generation, 320 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:39,000 Speaker 1: and third generation nuclear reactors that all use water as 321 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:42,199 Speaker 1: a coolant, that all became safer and safer as a 322 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:46,480 Speaker 1: result of accidents but also public desire for more safety 323 00:17:46,520 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 1: around nuclear fission. But as a result, they became more 324 00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:52,359 Speaker 1: and more expensive and they are no longer able to 325 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:57,880 Speaker 1: compete with the way the grid prices electricity, and thus 326 00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:02,719 Speaker 1: outside of China, no is really building nuclear fission reactors 327 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 1: at scale anymore. And yet there are a number of 328 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 1: ideas being floated. Do you think those ideas have any legs? 329 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:14,520 Speaker 3: I really do. First of all, I think you have 330 00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 3: to compare apples to apples. You're one hundred percent right. 331 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:20,480 Speaker 3: Electrons are the most undifferentiated product on the face of 332 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:23,119 Speaker 3: the earth. People are not going to pay extra for 333 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:25,359 Speaker 3: them as we think about the developing an emerging world, 334 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:28,240 Speaker 3: and that is absolutely the most important part of this thing. 335 00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:30,520 Speaker 3: You know, I'm sure your listeners know, but it's always 336 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:34,720 Speaker 3: worth remembering per dollar of GDP energy consumption in the 337 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:38,280 Speaker 3: West is going down through efficiency. If you just left 338 00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:40,359 Speaker 3: the Western world, if that was all we were talking 339 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:42,879 Speaker 3: about this isn't that big a problem. Where this really 340 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:45,760 Speaker 3: blows up is when the non OECD world seeks OECD 341 00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:49,400 Speaker 3: prosperity and the demand for energy that comes with it. 342 00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:52,240 Speaker 3: People are just not going to pay a green premium. 343 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 3: So you do have to offer whatever zero carbon technology 344 00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:00,360 Speaker 3: you want to use without a green premium. But it's 345 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:03,919 Speaker 3: important to compare apples to apples, intermittent wind and solar 346 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:06,280 Speaker 3: and even hydro, which is also just you know, remember 347 00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:08,920 Speaker 3: hydro is just solar energy with some storage. That's all 348 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 3: it is. And if you look at the challenges that 349 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:14,880 Speaker 3: Brazil is having with hydro today even Canada, even Canada, 350 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:18,119 Speaker 3: for God's sake, is rethinking it's commitment to hydro because 351 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:20,520 Speaker 3: so much of the country is in drought. So you 352 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:23,400 Speaker 3: can't compare intermittent resources to baseload power. So if you're 353 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,040 Speaker 3: gonna say, what is the cost that I have to 354 00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:28,639 Speaker 3: offer nuclear at, you really need to compare it to 355 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:30,880 Speaker 3: things like coal. Coal is sort of the ultimate base 356 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:34,680 Speaker 3: load electricity. Coal is broadly distributed around the world, it's 357 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:37,200 Speaker 3: easy to move around, and coal is about one hundred 358 00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:40,439 Speaker 3: dollars a megawa hour, so that's definitely got to be 359 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 3: your cost target if you're going to do that. After 360 00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:45,560 Speaker 3: Three Mile Island in nineteen seventy nine, the cost of 361 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:48,919 Speaker 3: nuclear rose roughly fivefold, and that has to do with 362 00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:54,160 Speaker 3: concerns around safety broadly, which is waste safety and proliferation. 363 00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:58,119 Speaker 3: There are certainly third and now fourth generation reactors that 364 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:01,320 Speaker 3: address many of those issues, but those haven't been built 365 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 3: at scale and enough of them to really understand what 366 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:07,440 Speaker 3: their ultimate cost entitlement is. And so one thing that 367 00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:10,879 Speaker 3: we need to do is to drive those costs down, 368 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:13,200 Speaker 3: get those things on a learning curve, and figure out 369 00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:16,439 Speaker 3: what their ultimate cost entitlement is. The other very real 370 00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 3: issue that we have is we stopped building nuclear reactors 371 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 3: in this country and so we've lost that muscle memory. 372 00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:24,960 Speaker 3: We don't know how to do it now. If you 373 00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 3: look at the Votel plant in Georgia and the number 374 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:30,720 Speaker 3: of problems that there were with that, so many of 375 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:34,639 Speaker 3: those problems were just because we forgot how to build reactors. 376 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:38,040 Speaker 3: They were mistakes that were made in the planning and construction. 377 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:41,760 Speaker 3: And so we need to learn how to make reactors again, 378 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:45,240 Speaker 3: and we need to build these new generation reactors that 379 00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:47,400 Speaker 3: needs to get built out so that we can understand 380 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:49,720 Speaker 3: what the ultimate cost entitlement is. If I'm going to say, okay, 381 00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:52,320 Speaker 3: col's our baseline hundred dollars a bay, where can we 382 00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:54,840 Speaker 3: get to can we get to one hundred and thirty dollars? 383 00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:58,120 Speaker 3: We need to understand that, and so I think that's 384 00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:01,160 Speaker 3: something that absolutely has to be done. There's about sixty 385 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:04,879 Speaker 3: reactors nuclear reactors globally under construction now, largely in China, 386 00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:07,760 Speaker 3: but not only in China, right, and so there are 387 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 3: about sixty and then about another one hundred that are 388 00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 3: in various stages of planning. But I think that the 389 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:16,719 Speaker 3: number of sources that we have for base load power 390 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:20,040 Speaker 3: are so small that it's really hard to see how 391 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,600 Speaker 3: we do this without at least some amount of fission. 392 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 3: So there's an enormous demand for new electricity here in 393 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:27,840 Speaker 3: the United States, and it would be great to see 394 00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 3: some of that met with new nuclear. 395 00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:32,560 Speaker 1: Would there be a point at which you would say 396 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:39,119 Speaker 1: that other clean electricity, dispatchable electricity technologies have come to 397 00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:42,439 Speaker 1: a place where we don't really need to pursue nuclear fission. 398 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 3: It's a very very very interesting question. So you mentioned geothermal. 399 00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,840 Speaker 3: You know, historically to do geothermal you've needed three things 400 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:53,360 Speaker 3: need heat, permeability, and water, and so that's why places 401 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,280 Speaker 3: like Iceland look so good. And in the Western United 402 00:21:56,320 --> 00:22:00,439 Speaker 3: States around Geyser's new technologies like that developed by one 403 00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:04,200 Speaker 3: of our portfolio companies have relieved the limitation for permeability 404 00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 3: and water. Taking advantage of advances in drilling technology that 405 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:11,600 Speaker 3: came from the conventional oil and gas business. There have 406 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:16,360 Speaker 3: been tremendous opportunities to expand geothermal. So there is definitely 407 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:19,600 Speaker 3: new technology, new learning that needs to happen, but there's 408 00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:25,200 Speaker 3: nothing inherent that limits the scalability of geothermal, and I 409 00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:26,959 Speaker 3: think it can with new technologies, it can be very 410 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:30,080 Speaker 3: widely distributed. You know another one that's very very interesting 411 00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:31,879 Speaker 3: and you have to promise not to laugh at me 412 00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:34,800 Speaker 3: here now? Actually is is space based solar? 413 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:35,720 Speaker 2: Right? 414 00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:39,240 Speaker 3: I told Look, I just said no laugh at me. 415 00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:40,480 Speaker 3: You're laughing at. 416 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:46,359 Speaker 1: Look it is. It is not to say it is 417 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:49,560 Speaker 1: a laughable idea in that it couldn't work, and I'm 418 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,080 Speaker 1: sure there are ways to make it work. But do 419 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:54,520 Speaker 1: we need to make it work is the laughable question. 420 00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,359 Speaker 1: It's not so much the feasibility. 421 00:22:56,600 --> 00:23:00,240 Speaker 3: Of it space based solar. You're absolutely right, even year 422 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,720 Speaker 3: thirty years ago, space based solar was tinfoil hat level lunacy. 423 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 3: But what has changed, and what's changed a lot of things, 424 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:11,360 Speaker 3: is the incredibly rapidly dropping cost of space launch. If 425 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:13,359 Speaker 3: we go back to the mid nineteen eighties and the 426 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:15,920 Speaker 3: Space Shuttle days, it costs fifty thousand dollars to put 427 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,800 Speaker 3: a kilogram something in space. That number now is five 428 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,679 Speaker 3: hundred down two orders of magnitude, and it's headed towards 429 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 3: one hundred dollars a kilogram. When it costs you one 430 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,640 Speaker 3: hundred dollars a kilogram to put something into space, then 431 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:30,680 Speaker 3: all sorts of stuff that was crazy is not crazy anymore. 432 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,920 Speaker 3: And both the European Space Agency and NASA are working 433 00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:37,000 Speaker 3: on space based solar. There's a large effort at Caltech 434 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:41,240 Speaker 3: to do power beaming, so you know, yeah, it's no 435 00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 3: longer tinfoil hat lunacy. 436 00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:47,600 Speaker 1: Well, talking of tinfoil hat lunacy, the next one is 437 00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:51,320 Speaker 1: nuclear fusion, which you know is not tinfoil hat in 438 00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:53,840 Speaker 1: the sense that we know it works because we've been 439 00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:58,200 Speaker 1: able to turn fusion reactions and create energy even those 440 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:02,359 Speaker 1: small amounts from it. However, it's one thing to know 441 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 1: you can do it and another to commercialize it. And 442 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,840 Speaker 1: nuclear fusion for the longest time has been a government 443 00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:14,399 Speaker 1: supported enterprise, rightly so, because of the risk in actually 444 00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:18,520 Speaker 1: commercializing it. That's changed over the past ten years. BB 445 00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:22,440 Speaker 1: is invested in five nuclear fusion companies. There are something 446 00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:26,560 Speaker 1: like twenty fusion companies out there. Why do you think 447 00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 1: investors are interested at this moment in time for fusion. 448 00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:34,840 Speaker 3: There's been a lot of advances in fusion and a 449 00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:38,600 Speaker 3: lot of advances in the technologies that are necessary to 450 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:43,760 Speaker 3: enable fusion that I think makes this a different moment 451 00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:48,440 Speaker 3: in time if we think about just magnetic confinement fusion 452 00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:52,280 Speaker 3: and plasma based fusions. The big change there has been 453 00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:56,000 Speaker 3: in the development of high temperature superconducting materials REVCO and others. 454 00:24:56,600 --> 00:25:00,320 Speaker 3: That's really what changed everything, right, and so now all 455 00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:03,040 Speaker 3: of a sudden, you don't need tokemax the size of eater. 456 00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:06,640 Speaker 3: Now you can build tokemacs that are even smaller than 457 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,800 Speaker 3: what a commercial nuclear reactor would look like. So there 458 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:16,480 Speaker 3: have been technical advances that enable fusion. Fundamentally, always the 459 00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:20,280 Speaker 3: attraction of fusion has been you know, we talked a 460 00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:22,879 Speaker 3: little bit ago about the fundamental challenges of waste safety 461 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:26,200 Speaker 3: and proliferation with nuclear fission. None of those things are 462 00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:29,399 Speaker 3: true with nuclear fusion. The products of the reaction are 463 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 3: radioactive for decades rather than millennia, they're not fissile and 464 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,359 Speaker 3: can't be weaponized, and it's not a chain reaction, so 465 00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:40,360 Speaker 3: runaway reactions they are so called walk away safe. That 466 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:43,360 Speaker 3: doesn't mean fusion will be cheap, but it does mean 467 00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:45,960 Speaker 3: you're not stuck in a box where there's no way 468 00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:49,439 Speaker 3: to get away from those fundamental safety constraints. And so 469 00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:52,879 Speaker 3: I think that's always been the sort of carrot that 470 00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:55,520 Speaker 3: was hanging out there with the fusion, and I think that, 471 00:25:55,680 --> 00:26:00,920 Speaker 3: coupled with recent advances in things like high TC superconducting 472 00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:06,480 Speaker 3: magnetic materials, make this perhaps a very interesting time for fusion. 473 00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:18,800 Speaker 1: More from my conversation with ericton after the break and 474 00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,359 Speaker 1: if you've been enjoying this episode, please take a moment 475 00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:24,040 Speaker 1: to rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. 476 00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:33,400 Speaker 1: It helps other listeners find the show. I'm a big 477 00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:36,520 Speaker 1: fan of science fiction, and I feel like nuclear fusion 478 00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:38,760 Speaker 1: is a technology if you were to give it to 479 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:42,480 Speaker 1: a civilization to advance quickly, you would want to give 480 00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:46,120 Speaker 1: them nuclear fusion. And so as much as we care 481 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:49,200 Speaker 1: about the climate problem and we need to address it, 482 00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,600 Speaker 1: it's nice to be able to dream big and think 483 00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:54,360 Speaker 1: about not just the century, but the centuries to come. 484 00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:56,760 Speaker 1: But we also have to come back to earth and 485 00:26:56,840 --> 00:27:00,760 Speaker 1: talk about technologies that do exist. But I have certainly 486 00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 1: got too much hype, and one of them is hydrogen. Now, 487 00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:08,320 Speaker 1: hydrogen as a molecule is very useful. We know we 488 00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:12,000 Speaker 1: use it today. We use it for refining oil, making 489 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 1: fuel actually usable in a car. But despite there being 490 00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:20,000 Speaker 1: so much support from governments in the US in Europe 491 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:24,000 Speaker 1: to try and build an industry to produce green hydrogen, 492 00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:29,760 Speaker 1: which is splitting water using renewable power, there still has 493 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:35,840 Speaker 1: not been enough actual commercialization of green hydrogen production. Why 494 00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:36,639 Speaker 1: is that the case? 495 00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:42,560 Speaker 3: So? Look, hydrogen is the Swiss Army knife of energy, right. 496 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:47,320 Speaker 3: Hydrogen is pure reactive chemical energy. If you have enough 497 00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:51,600 Speaker 3: hydrogen and it's cheap enough, you can do anything, and 498 00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:55,439 Speaker 3: that's literally anything. You can make materials, you can make steel, 499 00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,480 Speaker 3: you can make liquid fuels, you can make food. You 500 00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,879 Speaker 3: could make starch learning with hydrogen and CO two and 501 00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:04,399 Speaker 3: you could make it cost competitive, you know, if the 502 00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:06,720 Speaker 3: hydrogen is cheap enough. Okay, So As you come down 503 00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 3: the cost curve and what hydrogen is going to cost, 504 00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:11,919 Speaker 3: you enter a new sort of realm of what you 505 00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:15,040 Speaker 3: can do with it. If we talk about electrolytic hydrogen, 506 00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:21,000 Speaker 3: what has really changed is the availability of very large 507 00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:25,560 Speaker 3: quantities of very low cost electricity. Remember it takes on 508 00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:29,200 Speaker 3: the order of fifty kilowod hours to make a kilogram 509 00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:31,800 Speaker 3: of hydrogen. Depends a little bit on exactly how you 510 00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 3: make it. If you're paying ten cents a kilowot hour 511 00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:39,640 Speaker 3: for your electricity, then it costs you five dollars a 512 00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:43,400 Speaker 3: kilogram for hydrogen just in the cost of electricity, which 513 00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:47,800 Speaker 3: means inevitably you're using it for specialty application, super high value, 514 00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:52,360 Speaker 3: and so there's no real motivation to do things like 515 00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,200 Speaker 3: beat Capex out of the electrolyzer because you don't really 516 00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,880 Speaker 3: care if you're hydrogen's ten dollars a kilogram or fifteen 517 00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:02,280 Speaker 3: dollars a kilogram, because it's a special application. What changed 518 00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:04,760 Speaker 3: the game was, all of a sudden, I can have 519 00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:08,840 Speaker 3: purpose built solar energy for less than two cents of 520 00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:10,640 Speaker 3: kilo what hour, for probably less than one and a 521 00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:13,160 Speaker 3: half cent a kilo loot hour. If I can have 522 00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:16,640 Speaker 3: electricity for a penny a kilo whatot hour. Well, now 523 00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:18,800 Speaker 3: all of a sudden, I'm at fifty cents a kilogram 524 00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:22,120 Speaker 3: for my hydrogen. And now all of a sudden, I say, okay, Well, 525 00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,360 Speaker 3: the long poll in the tenth is the thousand or 526 00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:26,600 Speaker 3: fifteen hundred dollars a kill a WoT I'm paying for 527 00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:29,720 Speaker 3: my electrilyizer. If I could cut that number down to 528 00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,160 Speaker 3: two hundred or two hundred and fifty dollars a kill 529 00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:35,440 Speaker 3: a WoT, that would allow me to make hydrogen at 530 00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:38,120 Speaker 3: two dollars and fifty cents a kilogram or three dollars 531 00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:41,200 Speaker 3: a kilogram or something like that. Now that's still too 532 00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:43,960 Speaker 3: expensive to do a lot of different things. But now 533 00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:46,800 Speaker 3: it's cheap enough to do a lot of things. And 534 00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:49,360 Speaker 3: so all of a sudden there was a very powerful 535 00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:54,920 Speaker 3: motivation to work on electrilizers and all manner of electrilizers. 536 00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:58,440 Speaker 3: And so that, I think is where that big push 537 00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:02,000 Speaker 3: came from. So drop hydrogen from ten or fifteen dollars 538 00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:05,200 Speaker 3: at kilogram down to three dollars a kilogram. That opens 539 00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:07,200 Speaker 3: a whole new array of things that I can do 540 00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,760 Speaker 3: with it. It's still too expensive to make fuels and 541 00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:12,440 Speaker 3: do things like that, and so there's where we come 542 00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:15,520 Speaker 3: to the next big opportunity. There is hydrogen coming out 543 00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:17,920 Speaker 3: of the ground at the bottom of the ocean. There's 544 00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:20,720 Speaker 3: millions of tons of hydrogen that are released, especially along 545 00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:23,560 Speaker 3: the mid Atlantic rift in the ocean, and in lots 546 00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:26,400 Speaker 3: of places on dry land too, Mount Olympus and Turkey, 547 00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:29,760 Speaker 3: in Las Fuegos, Eturnos in the Philippines. But what really 548 00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:34,240 Speaker 3: started the current sort of excitement I think around natural 549 00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:40,160 Speaker 3: hydrogen happened in Mali, in southwestern Africa. There people drilling 550 00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:43,480 Speaker 3: for water in nineteen eighty three drilled the well. It 551 00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:46,120 Speaker 3: was about one hundred meters deep. Well exploded. They assumed 552 00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:48,960 Speaker 3: they drilled into natural gas. They plugged the well and 553 00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:51,880 Speaker 3: went back in twenty fourteen opened the well and discovered 554 00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:54,840 Speaker 3: that it was in fact pure hydrogen, pure hydrogen. 555 00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:57,680 Speaker 1: Since that time at one hundred meters depth. 556 00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:01,120 Speaker 3: At one hundred meters depth, at one hundred and ten meters, 557 00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:03,760 Speaker 3: well blew up to two hundred and ten meters. And 558 00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:06,880 Speaker 3: so they have drilled now about twenty five additional wells 559 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:09,800 Speaker 3: in the region, and a number of them are producing 560 00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:13,680 Speaker 3: hydrogen and they're actually generating electricity. And so you know, 561 00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:16,400 Speaker 3: we have known for a long time that there is 562 00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:20,160 Speaker 3: a lot of hydrogen that comes out of the ground naturally, 563 00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,120 Speaker 3: but it was this event in Mollie that really spurred 564 00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:26,400 Speaker 3: the current excitement. And so now, as you know, Coloma 565 00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:28,880 Speaker 3: is one of our companies and we believe that they're 566 00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:31,440 Speaker 3: the leader in the field, but there are a very 567 00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:34,640 Speaker 3: large number of companies that are now starting to work 568 00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:35,400 Speaker 3: in this space. 569 00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,400 Speaker 1: But in both cases, even if we say figure out 570 00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:42,240 Speaker 1: really cheap electricity and really cheap electoralizers, or we discover 571 00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:45,719 Speaker 1: all this natural hydrogen and we can easily tap it, 572 00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:50,440 Speaker 1: there still is a big, big problem around transport and storage. 573 00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:56,240 Speaker 1: And at that level, hydrogen is just a fundamentally different 574 00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:59,640 Speaker 1: gas than any other gas that large gas companies know 575 00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:03,440 Speaker 1: how to handle. It's so small that it enters the 576 00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:08,280 Speaker 1: seams of the cracks of steel pipes and embrittles them. 577 00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:10,840 Speaker 1: That is not to say technologically you can't find a 578 00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:13,640 Speaker 1: storage and transport solution, but it's just going to be 579 00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:17,080 Speaker 1: inherently a lot more expensive than we transport gas today. 580 00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:21,160 Speaker 3: Right, No, I don't think so. What it does probably 581 00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:24,800 Speaker 3: mean is building out a new infrastructure. So you're one 582 00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:27,320 Speaker 3: hundred percent right, So there's about seventeen hundred miles of 583 00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:30,960 Speaker 3: hydrogen pipeline in the United States right now. That is 584 00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,920 Speaker 3: just steel pipe. The way that other oil and gas 585 00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:36,720 Speaker 3: pipe is they just don't operate it at high pressure. 586 00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:39,760 Speaker 3: So you can put hydrogen through steel pipe, but not 587 00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:43,120 Speaker 3: at high pressure. You can transport hydrogen at high pressure 588 00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:45,720 Speaker 3: through fiber reinforced polymer and things like that, and fiber 589 00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:49,320 Speaker 3: reinforced polymer is actually cheaper lay than steel. But there's 590 00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:51,280 Speaker 3: two and a half million miles of oil and gas 591 00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,680 Speaker 3: pipeline in the United States right and so either somebody's 592 00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:56,240 Speaker 3: going to have to come up with some very clever 593 00:32:56,320 --> 00:33:01,920 Speaker 3: approach to coating existing pipelines to make resistant to embriddlement 594 00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:04,880 Speaker 3: and failure. And there are companies that are absolutely working 595 00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:07,480 Speaker 3: on that. But I think the opportunity is so huge, 596 00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:09,800 Speaker 3: right Remember, Jeff Ellis and the people at the United 597 00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:14,440 Speaker 3: States Geological Survey have estimated that the extractable resource may 598 00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:17,120 Speaker 3: be as large as a trillion tons, and that is 599 00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:19,960 Speaker 3: enough to power all of humanity for thousands of years. 600 00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:22,360 Speaker 3: I tell people all the time, this will be the 601 00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:25,760 Speaker 3: most important discovery in energy in our lifetimes and may 602 00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:27,840 Speaker 3: be in our children's lifetime. This is a complete and 603 00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:28,959 Speaker 3: total game changer. 604 00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:31,480 Speaker 1: This was such a fun chat, Eric, Thank you, Yeah, no, 605 00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:42,360 Speaker 1: I've enjoyed it. Actually, thank you for listening to Zero. 606 00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:47,800 Speaker 1: And now for the sound of the week. That's the 607 00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:51,880 Speaker 1: sound of hydrogen powering a rocket, one place where hydrogen 608 00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:55,560 Speaker 1: continues to be an important fuel. If you liked this episode, 609 00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:57,800 Speaker 1: please take a moment to rate and review the show 610 00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:01,480 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Share this episode with a 611 00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:05,040 Speaker 1: friend or with a rocket enthusiast. You can get in 612 00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:08,400 Speaker 1: touch at Zero pod at Bloomberg dot net. Zero's producer 613 00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:11,520 Speaker 1: is might Lee Rau. Bloomberg's head of podcast is Sage Bauman, 614 00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:14,440 Speaker 1: and head of Talk is Brendan nunu Ar. Theme music 615 00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:17,319 Speaker 1: is composed by Wonderly Special. Thanks to break Through Energy 616 00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:20,279 Speaker 1: Ventures for the space to record this episode, and to 617 00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:24,600 Speaker 1: Shavone Wagner, Ethan Steinberg, Black Maples, and Jessica beck I 618 00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:26,399 Speaker 1: am Akshatrati Back soon.