1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:07,360 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one hundred 2 00:00:07,360 --> 00:00:12,400 Speaker 1: and fourteen since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today 3 00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:16,120 Speaker 1: we go straight to our main story. As the United 4 00:00:16,160 --> 00:00:20,959 Speaker 1: States prepares to celebrate its independence this weekend, Bloomberg Executive 5 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:24,239 Speaker 1: editor Brian Bremner reflects on what the spread of the 6 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 1: virus tells us about our country. The US is home 7 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 1: to the highest number of COVID nineteen cases two point 8 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:37,839 Speaker 1: six million and counting, and the most deaths at more 9 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:41,879 Speaker 1: than one hundred and twenty seven thousand. The reasons for 10 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:47,800 Speaker 1: that are, at least in part, very American ones, politicized science, 11 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:53,360 Speaker 1: a fragmented media landscape, and inequality. I talked to Brian 12 00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: about how decades of political division have made the country 13 00:00:56,760 --> 00:01:02,639 Speaker 1: a coronavirus superpower in the worst way, an outcome that 14 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:14,120 Speaker 1: was entirely avoidable. How have we come to a point 15 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:18,880 Speaker 1: in the United States where an element of public health 16 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:24,840 Speaker 1: a face mask? How has that become so politicized? I 17 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 1: think the reason things have become so politicized are kind 18 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 1: of come from two buckets. I mean, the near term 19 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:35,039 Speaker 1: one has been the response of the Trump administration to 20 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 1: this crisis. The mixed messaging between the president and his 21 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:44,959 Speaker 1: top scientific advisors certainly has created a fog around what 22 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:49,080 Speaker 1: the real risks are the vulnerabilities that have developed in 23 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 1: the US. It actually go back decades and have made 24 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 1: this pandemic perhaps even worse than you know one would expect. 25 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 1: What are some of these elements that perhaps have led 26 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 1: us to this moment in the United States? Science has 27 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:10,640 Speaker 1: become politicized, not always, but in certainly kind of controversial, 28 00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 1: big public policy moments. There often isn't a standard set 29 00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:21,240 Speaker 1: effects that everyone agrees to, and that's not a recent phenomenon. 30 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 1: It actually goes back, if you think about it, to 31 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:28,160 Speaker 1: the nineteen fifties when the scientific community started to recognize 32 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 1: health threats from cigarettes. Science was kind of caught up 33 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:37,520 Speaker 1: in a taffy pole between competing interests over a very big, 34 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:43,360 Speaker 1: multibillion dollar industry. We're also seeing this kind of politicization 35 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:47,520 Speaker 1: of science in the debate over climate change and the 36 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 1: risks that go with that. We're all familiar with the 37 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:54,240 Speaker 1: anti vax or movement, you know, the concerns about the 38 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:58,080 Speaker 1: safety of vaccines. That's been going on for quite quite 39 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:02,639 Speaker 1: some time. So what we're experiencing now is not new 40 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 1: in that sense when governments and particularly say the scientific 41 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 1: community is recommending something like say the wearing of face masks, 42 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:17,119 Speaker 1: and we don't see necessarily the same politicization or even 43 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 1: say a negative reaction to these kinds of recommendations globally 44 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 1: except in the US. Is this something that speaks to 45 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 1: perhaps Americans unique distrust of science. In Europe, where the 46 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 1: disease curve on COVID nineteen is trended down, I think 47 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:44,840 Speaker 1: there is a more of a willingness to accept the 48 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:49,119 Speaker 1: advice of public health authorities. Not every country does it perfectly. 49 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 1: One could argue that the United Kingdom has had some issues, 50 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:57,120 Speaker 1: but by and large, I think people the public does 51 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 1: buy in to what the experts tell them about public 52 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 1: health guidance. Situation in the US is interesting. You know, 53 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 1: one would would immediately assume that, well, maybe there's an 54 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 1: issue with education that most Americans don't grasp scientific concepts, 55 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:16,760 Speaker 1: but that's actually not true. I mean, if you look 56 00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 1: at a lot of the international testing data on high 57 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:24,560 Speaker 1: school students in the US, they score above average of 58 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 1: the O E c D in basic science aptitude. If 59 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:34,760 Speaker 1: you look at the science aptitude of registered Democrats and 60 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:39,880 Speaker 1: registered Republicans. There are no big differences there either, and 61 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:43,920 Speaker 1: I think most a majority of Americans see the value 62 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:51,839 Speaker 1: of science. However, when science intersects with controversial public policy 63 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:54,440 Speaker 1: in the U S. Something kind of runs off the 64 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:58,599 Speaker 1: rail and it doesn't quite happen to the same degree 65 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:01,919 Speaker 1: and in other parts of the industrialized world. And a 66 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 1: lot of polling data has kind of looked at this, 67 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 1: and it does seem that Democrats and Democratic leaning voters 68 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 1: are willing to accept what Dr Fauci tells them. Uh, 69 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:20,320 Speaker 1: And it's about thirty points less lower in the in 70 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 1: the Republican Party in the public or Republican orbit. A 71 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: lot of that has to do with kind of the 72 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 1: changing political basis of the major parties. You know, a 73 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:35,279 Speaker 1: lot of people forget that. You know, in the nineteen eighties, 74 00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 1: the Republican Party was the party of the well educated 75 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:44,719 Speaker 1: the suburban world. That shifted over the last couple of 76 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:50,360 Speaker 1: decades to a less educated base of reporters. But also 77 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:56,920 Speaker 1: the rhetoric employed by Republican politicians can be different at 78 00:05:56,960 --> 00:06:00,600 Speaker 1: tons and we've seen that certainly with the trumpet illistration. 79 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:04,680 Speaker 1: Just not having a grasp of the basic facts, um 80 00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 1: kind of a wishful thinking in the public discourse, and 81 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 1: as I said, it's created a tremendous amount of confusion, 82 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 1: and particularly I was wondering if you might speak to 83 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:20,280 Speaker 1: maybe the differences we've seen and perhaps lack of leadership 84 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 1: we've seen both on the federal level with the Trump administration, 85 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:27,040 Speaker 1: but also of course we have each of the fifties 86 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 1: states taking their their own path essentially that you know, 87 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 1: we haven't necessarily seen a unified approach in how state 88 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 1: should go about addressing this pandemic, reopening, locking down, those 89 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 1: kinds of elements. Well, that's interesting thought, because when you 90 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:52,480 Speaker 1: have a rapidly moving, shape shifting pandemic across a huge 91 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:55,839 Speaker 1: country on the size of the US, where you have 92 00:06:56,480 --> 00:07:01,480 Speaker 1: urban centers with heavy population density, uh and then rural 93 00:07:02,080 --> 00:07:04,680 Speaker 1: parts of the country where the health care systems aren't 94 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:07,960 Speaker 1: quite as developed, you would think a rational way of 95 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:09,720 Speaker 1: doing this would be to have a kind of a 96 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 1: one size fits all directive where everything is kind of synchronized, 97 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 1: so everyone kind of went into the same degree of 98 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 1: lockdown more or less. I'm sure there would be nuances 99 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:25,240 Speaker 1: here and there, because there are differences, UM, But by 100 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 1: and large, same policy, same lockdown, same re emergence, and 101 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 1: of course that's not what happened here. And if you 102 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:37,440 Speaker 1: contrast that with different political systems, maybe at the far 103 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:43,119 Speaker 1: extreme China, which an autocratic system, when their crisis broke out, 104 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 1: they basically quarantined fifteen million people. They had no no 105 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 1: say in the matter, they had no choice in the matter, 106 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:55,320 Speaker 1: and it was a draconian, you know, top down we're 107 00:07:55,360 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 1: not messing around approach. Now, in open societies and democratic society, 108 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 1: you can't do that, of course, But if you look 109 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:06,680 Speaker 1: at Germany, which has done pretty well, there was kind 110 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 1: of a concerted approach that was communicated very clearly. There 111 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 1: was no contradicting between what Merkel said and her top 112 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 1: science advisors uh and the population UH. Maybe a little 113 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 1: bit more culturally cohesive than heterogeneous society like the US, 114 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:29,520 Speaker 1: but that point aside, you know, they got it and 115 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:32,560 Speaker 1: there was a concerted move and they had a good outcome. 116 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:36,160 Speaker 1: The US has been very chaotic, and so I was 117 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:39,960 Speaker 1: wondering maybe if we could also unpack perhaps the extent 118 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 1: to which this pandemic has exposed existing cracks in the 119 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 1: US system um in terms of income, inequality, racial inequality. 120 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 1: I mean, how is the US, say, uniquely positioned to 121 00:08:56,960 --> 00:09:03,199 Speaker 1: be so adversely affected by this pandemic in contrast to say, 122 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 1: some of these other countries. There is a very interesting 123 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:10,520 Speaker 1: link between inequality, which has been a corrosive problem for 124 00:09:10,520 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 1: several decades in the US, and the experience of the pandemic. 125 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 1: If you have a good job, you're part of the 126 00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:22,480 Speaker 1: knowledge economy, you work in an urban center, you are 127 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:26,959 Speaker 1: able to work from home, your company is still doing 128 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:32,320 Speaker 1: pretty well. The pandemic has certainly been disruptive to your life, 129 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:37,840 Speaker 1: but it hasn't been an outright crisis. Unfortunately. The burden 130 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:42,520 Speaker 1: of this pandemic is really falling on lower income, minority 131 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 1: segments of the society. I mean, that's clear in the data. Uh, 132 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 1: it's clear in the black mortality rate, which is more 133 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:56,080 Speaker 1: than twice that of the white population of the United States. 134 00:09:56,960 --> 00:10:00,959 Speaker 1: So people are experiencing the pandemic and in different ways, 135 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:06,839 Speaker 1: and that's creating a lot more cultural resentment and misunderstanding 136 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 1: about how serious this is. If you're you know, highly educated, 137 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 1: as I said, white collar worker, and you've got a 138 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 1: secure job, the money is still coming through the door, 139 00:10:17,679 --> 00:10:22,800 Speaker 1: this may not seem quite as life altering as if 140 00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:25,680 Speaker 1: you were working in the hospitality industry and kind of 141 00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 1: living paycheck to paychecks, certainly, and so is there a 142 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:32,440 Speaker 1: way forward for the US? I suppose is the big question. 143 00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:36,400 Speaker 1: We are looking at record case counts. Now, is there 144 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:40,959 Speaker 1: a path forward for the US to navigate this crisis? Well, 145 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 1: there seemed to be too broad possibilities. I mean, one 146 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 1: is a decision has been made that we have to 147 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:51,800 Speaker 1: kind of let this thing run its course. Is as 148 00:10:51,880 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 1: awful as it can be, it will be. But the 149 00:10:56,280 --> 00:10:59,560 Speaker 1: alternative of shutting down the economy in any kind of 150 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:04,480 Speaker 1: serious this way creates another set of problems, and we 151 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:08,679 Speaker 1: need to just kind of soldier through this. That is 152 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 1: the kind of the choice that some people in Washington, 153 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:17,880 Speaker 1: particularly on the Republican side, are kind of positioning out 154 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:21,640 Speaker 1: there that it's an either or either we muscle our 155 00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:24,880 Speaker 1: way through this or we do so much economic damage 156 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,360 Speaker 1: that is just going to be as awful. I think 157 00:11:27,400 --> 00:11:31,440 Speaker 1: the public health experts offer a different kind of possibility 158 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:34,320 Speaker 1: and describe that as kind of a false choice that 159 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:40,679 Speaker 1: until we get really deadly serious about you know, social distancing, 160 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:46,080 Speaker 1: mass handwashing, altering our lifestyle in such a way to 161 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:50,080 Speaker 1: get this the spread, the community spread down to a 162 00:11:50,160 --> 00:11:53,840 Speaker 1: reasonable level, the economy is never going to come back 163 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:55,800 Speaker 1: because you're going to be in this fits and starts 164 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:59,600 Speaker 1: kind of scenario. So one thing we might to look for, 165 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 1: I think, is whether you start to see mandatory rules 166 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:07,160 Speaker 1: at the local level that you know you need to 167 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:09,600 Speaker 1: wear a mask. If you don't wear a mask, you 168 00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:12,920 Speaker 1: will be fine. If you are a business and you 169 00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:18,360 Speaker 1: have not rethought your business process is to make it 170 00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:21,280 Speaker 1: as safe as possible, your license is going to get pulled. 171 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:28,760 Speaker 1: I mean, more of a hardcore government lead policing of 172 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 1: of of the preventative behaviors that we need to see 173 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:34,959 Speaker 1: to get through this crisis, because what we've had so 174 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 1: far has been kind of a giant honor system where 175 00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:44,040 Speaker 1: we've been kind of assuming that Americans will kind of 176 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:47,240 Speaker 1: figure this out, they'll read up on it, they'll do 177 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:50,440 Speaker 1: whatever they have to do at the household level to 178 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:54,360 Speaker 1: keep everyone as safe as possible. And you know, I 179 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 1: think a lot of Americans have done that, but unfortunately, 180 00:12:57,160 --> 00:13:02,440 Speaker 1: it doesn't take a a lot of people to trigger 181 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:06,960 Speaker 1: the super spreader incidents that set this virus on fire. 182 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:09,319 Speaker 1: And unfortunately, that's kind of where we're at right now. 183 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 1: That was Brian Bremner. His essay, the virus and America's 184 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:19,800 Speaker 1: Divisions can be read on Bloomberg dot com. And that's 185 00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:22,400 Speaker 1: it for our show. For coverage of the outbreak from 186 00:13:22,400 --> 00:13:27,080 Speaker 1: one bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com Flash 187 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:31,200 Speaker 1: Coronavirus and if you like the show, please leave us 188 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:35,200 Speaker 1: a review and a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 189 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:38,319 Speaker 1: It's the best way to help more listeners find our 190 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:43,480 Speaker 1: global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Topher 191 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:49,800 Speaker 1: foreheads Jordan Gospore, Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's 192 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 1: main story was reported by Brian Bremner. Original music by 193 00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:58,520 Speaker 1: Leo Sidrin. Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesca Levi. 194 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:03,959 Speaker 1: Francesco Levie is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening. 195 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:15,599 Speaker 1: H