WEBVTT - We're All Doomed!! (ok, not really).  Niall Ferguson Talks to A&G

0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:04.200
<v Speaker 1>We're all doomed. It's Armstrong and Getty extra large, because

0:00:04.240 --> 0:00:09.080
<v Speaker 1>four hours simply isn't enough. This is Armstrong and Getty

0:00:09.200 --> 0:00:15.600
<v Speaker 1>extra Large. Doom is actually the title of the new

0:00:15.640 --> 0:00:19.959
<v Speaker 1>book from Neil Ferguson, Doomed, The Politics of Catastrophe. In

0:00:19.960 --> 0:00:22.520
<v Speaker 1>the opening of his book references a sitcom that I

0:00:22.560 --> 0:00:25.280
<v Speaker 1>don't know as an American, in which one of the characters, apparently,

0:00:25.320 --> 0:00:27.840
<v Speaker 1>no matter what happened, would we say we're all doomed,

0:00:28.160 --> 0:00:32.040
<v Speaker 1>which is alert. I was laughing quietly as you alluded

0:00:32.120 --> 0:00:36.720
<v Speaker 1>to Dad's army. We're doomed. It's a very Scottish thing

0:00:36.760 --> 0:00:39.040
<v Speaker 1>to say, which is part of the reason that I

0:00:39.080 --> 0:00:42.479
<v Speaker 1>gave the book the title doom. But but actually we're

0:00:42.520 --> 0:00:44.760
<v Speaker 1>doomed as a Star Wars line. I hadn't realized this

0:00:44.880 --> 0:00:49.159
<v Speaker 1>until I started researching. We're doomed in popular culture, and

0:00:49.200 --> 0:00:52.080
<v Speaker 1>I think it's a common response when anything goes wrong there.

0:00:52.159 --> 0:00:55.400
<v Speaker 1>There there are those people who think when disaster strikes

0:00:55.600 --> 0:00:57.600
<v Speaker 1>that it's the end of the world, and then there

0:00:57.600 --> 0:01:00.200
<v Speaker 1>are those people who win disaster strikes are like the

0:01:00.200 --> 0:01:02.760
<v Speaker 1>guy on the jacket of the book who's carrying on

0:01:03.080 --> 0:01:07.760
<v Speaker 1>sinking his part as the wildfire rages behind him, And

0:01:07.800 --> 0:01:10.600
<v Speaker 1>I think part part of our problem with with disasters

0:01:10.680 --> 0:01:12.880
<v Speaker 1>is that that we kind of divide into the people

0:01:12.880 --> 0:01:17.200
<v Speaker 1>who who freak out and the people who go into denial. Well,

0:01:17.200 --> 0:01:19.960
<v Speaker 1>we're always pleased when people we admire agree with us.

0:01:20.000 --> 0:01:22.880
<v Speaker 1>It makes us feel better about ourselves. And you seem

0:01:22.959 --> 0:01:26.040
<v Speaker 1>to share our belief that the fixation on the chief

0:01:26.040 --> 0:01:29.080
<v Speaker 1>executive president of the United States, for instance, as as

0:01:29.120 --> 0:01:32.399
<v Speaker 1>some sort of godhead who can ensued fix all problems

0:01:32.680 --> 0:01:38.640
<v Speaker 1>is pretty misplaced, right. Paul Stoy in Warren Peace makes

0:01:38.680 --> 0:01:41.480
<v Speaker 1>fun of the idea that Napoleon was in command of

0:01:41.520 --> 0:01:45.160
<v Speaker 1>the destinies of all Europeans, And as in a Storian,

0:01:45.160 --> 0:01:48.120
<v Speaker 1>I've tended to be skeptical of the idea that it's

0:01:48.160 --> 0:01:52.880
<v Speaker 1>all about one or two great or wicked men. That's

0:01:52.880 --> 0:01:55.200
<v Speaker 1>not because I'm a Marxist his Storian. On the contrary,

0:01:55.240 --> 0:01:58.560
<v Speaker 1>I just think that in truth, the history's complex process,

0:01:58.720 --> 0:02:01.440
<v Speaker 1>and very rarely is the man at the top, and

0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:05.560
<v Speaker 1>it's usually a man in sole charge, especially when disaster strikes.

0:02:05.600 --> 0:02:08.720
<v Speaker 1>So what happened last year was that all those people

0:02:08.760 --> 0:02:11.680
<v Speaker 1>who've had it in for Trump already were given the

0:02:11.680 --> 0:02:15.200
<v Speaker 1>perfect opportunity to say that it was all his fault.

0:02:15.720 --> 0:02:18.519
<v Speaker 1>Jim Fallows wrote a piece in the Atlantic that said,

0:02:19.560 --> 0:02:22.240
<v Speaker 1>when I fly my light aircraft, I'm in charge, so

0:02:22.280 --> 0:02:24.639
<v Speaker 1>if something goes wrong, it's my fault, and the president

0:02:25.120 --> 0:02:28.600
<v Speaker 1>is in the analogous situation. Now, being the president United

0:02:28.639 --> 0:02:31.799
<v Speaker 1>States is not like flying a light aircraft. It really

0:02:31.880 --> 0:02:34.840
<v Speaker 1>is not, because you're in charge of a vast number

0:02:34.840 --> 0:02:37.720
<v Speaker 1>of different agencies and you can't possibly keep an eye

0:02:38.040 --> 0:02:40.880
<v Speaker 1>on every threat the nation faces. In practice, in every

0:02:40.880 --> 0:02:44.160
<v Speaker 1>country when there's a pandemic, there is a bunch of

0:02:44.160 --> 0:02:47.400
<v Speaker 1>people whose job that is. In the US, there's the

0:02:47.400 --> 0:02:50.079
<v Speaker 1>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there's the Department of

0:02:50.120 --> 0:02:52.960
<v Speaker 1>Health and Human Services. They even have a Deputy Secretary

0:02:53.480 --> 0:02:57.919
<v Speaker 1>for preparedness. And the idea that it's the president's job

0:02:58.040 --> 0:03:01.760
<v Speaker 1>to sit there and make calls about making tests available

0:03:01.800 --> 0:03:05.240
<v Speaker 1>for a new coronavirus is is a cartoon version of

0:03:05.240 --> 0:03:08.400
<v Speaker 1>how government works. And I think if we draw the conclusion,

0:03:08.440 --> 0:03:10.519
<v Speaker 1>and I'm afraid that many, many, many people have, we

0:03:10.600 --> 0:03:13.440
<v Speaker 1>draw the conclusion that this was all Sump's fault, that

0:03:13.480 --> 0:03:16.480
<v Speaker 1>we wouldn't have had half a million plus dead if

0:03:16.639 --> 0:03:19.720
<v Speaker 1>it had been Joe Biden, who somehow magically got elected

0:03:19.760 --> 0:03:22.040
<v Speaker 1>a year early. Then we are not going to learn

0:03:22.080 --> 0:03:25.200
<v Speaker 1>anything from this experience, and the next disaster will be

0:03:25.280 --> 0:03:28.240
<v Speaker 1>just as big as the battle. So but I believe

0:03:28.280 --> 0:03:30.360
<v Speaker 1>we talked to you right at the beginning of the

0:03:30.400 --> 0:03:34.240
<v Speaker 1>pandemic and um, and we're talking about how it looks

0:03:34.280 --> 0:03:35.960
<v Speaker 1>like this is going to shape up to be, you know,

0:03:36.040 --> 0:03:38.200
<v Speaker 1>the sort of thing that makes history books for centuries

0:03:38.200 --> 0:03:40.000
<v Speaker 1>to come. Like it's that big of a deal. What

0:03:40.080 --> 0:03:43.680
<v Speaker 1>do you give the world for a grade on reacting

0:03:44.000 --> 0:03:46.560
<v Speaker 1>to this, this this horrible thing that that struck us

0:03:46.600 --> 0:03:50.800
<v Speaker 1>a year ago. Yeah, I'd have to say that the

0:03:51.080 --> 0:03:54.240
<v Speaker 1>f it comes to mind at this point. And uh,

0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:56.560
<v Speaker 1>you know you don't need to take it from me,

0:03:56.680 --> 0:03:59.840
<v Speaker 1>because there's a new report that's just come out the

0:04:00.000 --> 0:04:05.720
<v Speaker 1>Independent Panel, which has I think arrived at somewhat similar

0:04:05.760 --> 0:04:08.760
<v Speaker 1>conclusions to my own, namely that this was an avoidable

0:04:08.800 --> 0:04:12.320
<v Speaker 1>disaster if we had acted the way say the Taiwanese

0:04:12.320 --> 0:04:16.479
<v Speaker 1>and the South Koreans did early, quickly ramping up testing

0:04:16.560 --> 0:04:20.520
<v Speaker 1>and creating contact tracing, isolating people who were infected, we

0:04:20.640 --> 0:04:23.520
<v Speaker 1>did not need to have a global pandemic. And indeed

0:04:23.560 --> 0:04:27.560
<v Speaker 1>Taiwan did not have significant excess mortality at all. I

0:04:27.560 --> 0:04:29.840
<v Speaker 1>think twelve people have died of COVID in Taiwan, and

0:04:29.839 --> 0:04:32.680
<v Speaker 1>they're right next to China. So we know that this

0:04:32.839 --> 0:04:35.040
<v Speaker 1>did not have to be this way. We know that

0:04:35.120 --> 0:04:37.200
<v Speaker 1>we did not have to have more than half a

0:04:37.240 --> 0:04:41.479
<v Speaker 1>million Americans die premature ly. But the problem, I think

0:04:41.640 --> 0:04:45.720
<v Speaker 1>is that that we are seeking simplistic narratives about the

0:04:46.000 --> 0:04:49.279
<v Speaker 1>story which are going to lead us to miss what

0:04:49.480 --> 0:04:53.040
<v Speaker 1>is really amiss, what is really wrong. After all, this

0:04:53.120 --> 0:04:55.960
<v Speaker 1>is not the only disaster that we have handled badly

0:04:56.160 --> 0:04:59.080
<v Speaker 1>in recent times. I don't think you could claim that

0:04:59.400 --> 0:05:03.400
<v Speaker 1>we handle nine eleven brilliantly. Certainly with the benefit of hindsight,

0:05:03.440 --> 0:05:07.200
<v Speaker 1>Invading Iraq doesn't seem like the best possible reaction to

0:05:07.279 --> 0:05:11.640
<v Speaker 1>that crisis. Financial crisis, well, on paper, we were prepared.

0:05:11.800 --> 0:05:14.840
<v Speaker 1>We had all kinds of regulations in place, but that

0:05:14.920 --> 0:05:17.680
<v Speaker 1>was a pretty big debacle. And then on paper we

0:05:17.680 --> 0:05:20.119
<v Speaker 1>were prepared for a pandemic. It was just that maybe

0:05:20.120 --> 0:05:22.120
<v Speaker 1>we've got the wrong sort of pandemic. I don't know

0:05:22.120 --> 0:05:24.400
<v Speaker 1>what the excuse would be, but I think there's a

0:05:24.440 --> 0:05:28.040
<v Speaker 1>pattern here of failure, and I don't think it's always

0:05:28.040 --> 0:05:32.440
<v Speaker 1>been this way, because we have great scientific knowledge. We

0:05:32.440 --> 0:05:35.840
<v Speaker 1>we understand a lot about the disasters that we are

0:05:35.920 --> 0:05:38.560
<v Speaker 1>likely to encounter, but it feels to me as if

0:05:38.680 --> 0:05:44.599
<v Speaker 1>our response has become less competent compared, let's say, with

0:05:44.839 --> 0:05:48.280
<v Speaker 1>the nineteen fifties, when in the face of the so

0:05:48.360 --> 0:05:51.880
<v Speaker 1>called Asian Flu of nineteen fifty seven, the Eisenhower administration

0:05:52.560 --> 0:05:56.040
<v Speaker 1>was able to cope with the challenge and deal with

0:05:56.080 --> 0:06:00.479
<v Speaker 1>the disruption of excess mortality without shutting the economy me down,

0:06:00.680 --> 0:06:05.120
<v Speaker 1>without letting the deficit explode, without creating all the kinds

0:06:05.160 --> 0:06:10.279
<v Speaker 1>of I think avoidable and costly mistakes that were made

0:06:10.279 --> 0:06:13.800
<v Speaker 1>in I know one of the themes of the book

0:06:13.839 --> 0:06:16.039
<v Speaker 1>is that you you believe we have a what you

0:06:16.120 --> 0:06:20.160
<v Speaker 1>call a middle management problem, a bloated complex bureaucracy problem.

0:06:20.839 --> 0:06:24.160
<v Speaker 1>Tell us more about that. Well, it's, as we were

0:06:24.200 --> 0:06:27.000
<v Speaker 1>saying earlier, very easy just to say this was all

0:06:27.040 --> 0:06:30.440
<v Speaker 1>down to Trump, and I think we've got to avoid

0:06:31.320 --> 0:06:34.080
<v Speaker 1>drawing that conclusion. Not that he didn't make many, many mistakes,

0:06:34.120 --> 0:06:37.640
<v Speaker 1>But in truth, it wasn't because of Trump that CDC

0:06:37.920 --> 0:06:41.320
<v Speaker 1>completely failed to make testing available early in the in

0:06:41.360 --> 0:06:45.159
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic. The c d C folks, first they stopped

0:06:45.160 --> 0:06:48.640
<v Speaker 1>anybody else from developing tests, and then they produced a

0:06:48.680 --> 0:06:51.520
<v Speaker 1>test of their own that didn't work. And I'd love

0:06:51.560 --> 0:06:55.200
<v Speaker 1>to believe the President United States is is busily monitoring

0:06:55.200 --> 0:06:58.120
<v Speaker 1>the activities of laboratories at c d C. But let's

0:06:58.120 --> 0:07:01.760
<v Speaker 1>face it, that's not how this job works. I learned

0:07:01.800 --> 0:07:05.800
<v Speaker 1>a very important lesson from studying another disaster. It was

0:07:05.839 --> 0:07:08.800
<v Speaker 1>actually a smaller disaster in terms of death, but a

0:07:08.839 --> 0:07:13.240
<v Speaker 1>pretty spectacular one in terms of its impact on American imaginations.

0:07:13.240 --> 0:07:17.360
<v Speaker 1>And that was the explosion of the Space Shuttle Challenger

0:07:17.560 --> 0:07:21.120
<v Speaker 1>shortly after its launch, and a brilliant manner physicist named

0:07:21.200 --> 0:07:24.200
<v Speaker 1>Richard Feynman wrote a book about that. He was involved

0:07:24.200 --> 0:07:26.640
<v Speaker 1>in the inquiry, and in the book he observes that

0:07:26.680 --> 0:07:28.840
<v Speaker 1>the initial impulse of the media was to try and

0:07:28.880 --> 0:07:32.040
<v Speaker 1>pin it on Roll Reagan, to to try to claim that, oh,

0:07:32.240 --> 0:07:35.080
<v Speaker 1>that the Shuffle launch had been rushed because Reagan wanted

0:07:35.120 --> 0:07:37.040
<v Speaker 1>to reference it in a speech, And this was all

0:07:37.120 --> 0:07:41.880
<v Speaker 1>completely made up. The reality was that at NASA, the

0:07:42.080 --> 0:07:45.280
<v Speaker 1>engineers knew that this thing had a one percent, one

0:07:45.280 --> 0:07:47.720
<v Speaker 1>and a hundred chance of blowing up. They knew there

0:07:47.760 --> 0:07:52.000
<v Speaker 1>was a problem, especially at low temperatures. But the bureaucrats

0:07:52.040 --> 0:07:54.800
<v Speaker 1>at NASA decided to change that one and a hundred

0:07:54.880 --> 0:07:58.480
<v Speaker 1>chance to one in a hundred thousand in order not

0:07:58.640 --> 0:08:01.840
<v Speaker 1>to reveal to the people who were backing the Space

0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:05.440
<v Speaker 1>Shuttle program, namely Congress, that there was a significant risk

0:08:05.440 --> 0:08:09.040
<v Speaker 1>of a disaster. Now, I think throughout history we find

0:08:09.280 --> 0:08:14.360
<v Speaker 1>that guy in middle management again and again, inserting the

0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:18.160
<v Speaker 1>point of failure into the chain of command. But we

0:08:18.200 --> 0:08:19.840
<v Speaker 1>always want to blame the person at the top. So

0:08:19.880 --> 0:08:23.520
<v Speaker 1>the Titanic sinks, and it's the owner of the shipping

0:08:23.600 --> 0:08:30.480
<v Speaker 1>line who gets the maximum blame and opprobrium heaped upon him,

0:08:30.520 --> 0:08:33.600
<v Speaker 1>But that is not really the key to the losses

0:08:34.360 --> 0:08:37.480
<v Speaker 1>on the Titanic. And I think in the same way,

0:08:37.559 --> 0:08:39.760
<v Speaker 1>you kind of go through the disasters and you start

0:08:39.840 --> 0:08:43.920
<v Speaker 1>to realize that it's it's rarely the person who's really

0:08:43.960 --> 0:08:47.000
<v Speaker 1>at fault who gets the blame and a disaster, we

0:08:47.000 --> 0:08:50.040
<v Speaker 1>we tend to want to pin the blame on whoever's

0:08:50.040 --> 0:08:52.840
<v Speaker 1>at the top of the chain of command, But disasters

0:08:53.040 --> 0:08:57.520
<v Speaker 1>generally don't really unfold because of major errors at the top.

0:08:57.559 --> 0:09:00.320
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it wasn't just to give another random exact ample,

0:09:00.559 --> 0:09:03.679
<v Speaker 1>it wasn't Winston Churchill's fault that the defense of Singapore

0:09:03.800 --> 0:09:07.960
<v Speaker 1>was completely bungled in World War Two. We can certainly say,

0:09:08.000 --> 0:09:11.959
<v Speaker 1>with Harry Trueman, the buck stops here. Responsibility ultimately lies

0:09:12.000 --> 0:09:15.000
<v Speaker 1>with the president of the prime minister. Sure, but let's

0:09:15.040 --> 0:09:18.080
<v Speaker 1>not tell ourselves a fairy story that if only we'd

0:09:18.120 --> 0:09:20.599
<v Speaker 1>had a different president last year, that had all have

0:09:20.720 --> 0:09:23.120
<v Speaker 1>been fine, because that that seems to me like a

0:09:23.120 --> 0:09:26.240
<v Speaker 1>complete fairy story. Yeah, the example you gave fits with

0:09:26.360 --> 0:09:28.240
<v Speaker 1>the story of the day yesterday when the New York

0:09:28.240 --> 0:09:31.680
<v Speaker 1>Times let us know that the c d C saying

0:09:32.200 --> 0:09:36.840
<v Speaker 1>less than ten percent of transmissions were outdoors when the

0:09:36.880 --> 0:09:40.400
<v Speaker 1>real number was point zero one percent or whatever. It's

0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:43.560
<v Speaker 1>the same sort of thing, crazy crazy, And you know,

0:09:44.000 --> 0:09:47.040
<v Speaker 1>that's a very good example of what was going wrong

0:09:47.320 --> 0:09:50.160
<v Speaker 1>and is still going wrong. It was obvious a year

0:09:50.200 --> 0:09:52.800
<v Speaker 1>ago if you were paying attention to the research that

0:09:52.880 --> 0:09:55.360
<v Speaker 1>was coming out of China and then North ficially where

0:09:55.360 --> 0:09:59.880
<v Speaker 1>the disease first really struck, that it wasn't being transmitted outdoors.

0:10:00.000 --> 0:10:02.959
<v Speaker 1>I mean there were literally no cases out of Wuhan

0:10:03.240 --> 0:10:06.000
<v Speaker 1>of outdoor transmission. And I remember reading this and thinking, oh,

0:10:06.080 --> 0:10:11.000
<v Speaker 1>that's interesting, And so we ignored that for a year

0:10:11.559 --> 0:10:16.720
<v Speaker 1>and introduced a whole range of totally stupid restrictions, of

0:10:16.760 --> 0:10:21.800
<v Speaker 1>which my personal bugbear were the closures of parks and beaches.

0:10:21.880 --> 0:10:25.520
<v Speaker 1>California shut down its public spaces, so not only locked

0:10:25.520 --> 0:10:27.880
<v Speaker 1>people in their homes, but they then prevented them from

0:10:27.960 --> 0:10:30.680
<v Speaker 1>going outdoors. And then, of course you have the mask

0:10:30.760 --> 0:10:34.760
<v Speaker 1>wearing outdoors, which is actually entirely pointless. And this was

0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:37.360
<v Speaker 1>not It's not like we just figured this out. This

0:10:37.440 --> 0:10:41.600
<v Speaker 1>was obvious. It was obviously in March of last year,

0:10:41.760 --> 0:10:46.840
<v Speaker 1>because nobody was getting this virus in outdoor settings. You

0:10:46.880 --> 0:10:50.880
<v Speaker 1>could see already in the spring the super spreader effect

0:10:51.040 --> 0:10:55.240
<v Speaker 1>that basically twent of infected people did, of the spreading,

0:10:55.559 --> 0:10:59.000
<v Speaker 1>you could see already over a year ago that this

0:10:59.000 --> 0:11:01.880
<v Speaker 1>thing disproportionately killed people over the age of sixty five.

0:11:01.960 --> 0:11:04.640
<v Speaker 1>And you could see the places that it's spread. They

0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:08.560
<v Speaker 1>were indoor settings where large numbers of people were fairly

0:11:08.600 --> 0:11:12.000
<v Speaker 1>close together yelling or singing, and so the places that

0:11:12.080 --> 0:11:14.280
<v Speaker 1>you should shut down in a situation like that of

0:11:14.360 --> 0:11:17.000
<v Speaker 1>the restaurants and the bars, and you should certainly not

0:11:17.040 --> 0:11:19.200
<v Speaker 1>be having people go to church. But that stuff was

0:11:19.559 --> 0:11:23.000
<v Speaker 1>that was not difficult to see. I'm not a virologist

0:11:23.040 --> 0:11:25.680
<v Speaker 1>or an epidemiologist. I'm a historian, but I was reading

0:11:25.679 --> 0:11:27.480
<v Speaker 1>the literature as it was coming out because it was

0:11:27.679 --> 0:11:30.560
<v Speaker 1>pretty fascinated by by the fact that we were in

0:11:30.559 --> 0:11:33.720
<v Speaker 1>the midst of an obviously historic disaster. And it is

0:11:33.800 --> 0:11:36.920
<v Speaker 1>mystifying to me that so many public officials whose job

0:11:37.000 --> 0:11:40.920
<v Speaker 1>this was got things as basic as that wrong and

0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:44.080
<v Speaker 1>imposed a set of restrictions in the population that were

0:11:44.200 --> 0:11:48.040
<v Speaker 1>ultimately harmful. It must have been harmful to stop people

0:11:48.080 --> 0:11:52.240
<v Speaker 1>getting outdoors and to confine them indoors when the virus

0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:56.520
<v Speaker 1>is something that spreads indoors. Well, what makes us insane,

0:11:56.520 --> 0:11:58.400
<v Speaker 1>and perhaps you can help us tease out what's going

0:11:58.440 --> 0:12:01.520
<v Speaker 1>on here, is that so many of the the protective

0:12:01.520 --> 0:12:04.520
<v Speaker 1>methods to policies that have been disproved months and months

0:12:04.559 --> 0:12:08.840
<v Speaker 1>ago remain like the masks outdoors. Is that just? Is

0:12:08.840 --> 0:12:13.360
<v Speaker 1>that a fixation on COVID? Is that bureaucracy is not

0:12:13.600 --> 0:12:16.559
<v Speaker 1>at work? Is that bias in favor of the status quo?

0:12:16.720 --> 0:12:20.160
<v Speaker 1>What's going on with that? I think there are two things. One,

0:12:20.240 --> 0:12:24.800
<v Speaker 1>we have a bureaucratic mentality which regards all risk can,

0:12:24.880 --> 0:12:30.319
<v Speaker 1>no matter what the probability is, as unacceptable. And the

0:12:30.320 --> 0:12:32.440
<v Speaker 1>fun of that, if you're a bureaucrat is that you

0:12:32.480 --> 0:12:35.559
<v Speaker 1>can generate endless regulations and then let people get off

0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:37.640
<v Speaker 1>on that to an extent that I think some of

0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:40.520
<v Speaker 1>us find hard to comprehend. But I see this not

0:12:40.640 --> 0:12:43.360
<v Speaker 1>only at the state level, but at the local level,

0:12:43.400 --> 0:12:45.600
<v Speaker 1>the county level, at the campus level, just the kind

0:12:45.640 --> 0:12:48.880
<v Speaker 1>of desire to create regulations for their own sake. I'll

0:12:48.880 --> 0:12:51.200
<v Speaker 1>give you a great example. The swimming pool where I

0:12:51.200 --> 0:12:53.840
<v Speaker 1>take my kids has all kinds of precautions in place,

0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:56.480
<v Speaker 1>and my favorite is the buffer lane. There is a

0:12:56.720 --> 0:13:00.400
<v Speaker 1>lane that is left empty between where kids can swim

0:13:00.559 --> 0:13:03.640
<v Speaker 1>and adults can do lap swimming because of course the

0:13:03.640 --> 0:13:07.880
<v Speaker 1>stars Coby too virus loves to swim in chlorinated water.

0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:11.240
<v Speaker 1>But it really can't swim across. It can only swim it.

0:13:12.400 --> 0:13:15.559
<v Speaker 1>Come on, guys, and my credit to my nine year old.

0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:18.760
<v Speaker 1>He's like, he's nine, he knows as his bullshit, and

0:13:18.760 --> 0:13:21.120
<v Speaker 1>it's like, so he swims into the buffer lane to

0:13:21.280 --> 0:13:24.920
<v Speaker 1>provoke what he calls the COVID police, and the COVID police,

0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:27.080
<v Speaker 1>the poor people who have to enforce these regulations. We

0:13:27.160 --> 0:13:29.960
<v Speaker 1>really come over and tell him to go back into

0:13:30.400 --> 0:13:33.320
<v Speaker 1>into his lane, and they must know it's it's it's

0:13:33.440 --> 0:13:36.720
<v Speaker 1>crap too. So We have a curious phenomenon, which is

0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:39.520
<v Speaker 1>that there are some people who just love regulation and

0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:42.240
<v Speaker 1>they love to control people's lives and it gets them

0:13:42.240 --> 0:13:44.440
<v Speaker 1>out of bed in the morning. And this was their

0:13:44.480 --> 0:13:50.080
<v Speaker 1>permission to regulate our every activity, no matter what the

0:13:50.120 --> 0:13:52.679
<v Speaker 1>sign said. I don't think they paid the slightest attention

0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:55.040
<v Speaker 1>to the signs. It was just like, oh, great, now

0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:57.800
<v Speaker 1>we can create a lane where nobody can swim. The

0:13:57.840 --> 0:14:00.720
<v Speaker 1>other thing that's going on, which I mean, this makes

0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:03.520
<v Speaker 1>me crazy, um, but the other thing that's going on

0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:05.680
<v Speaker 1>is that that we've developed a habit which was not

0:14:05.760 --> 0:14:08.080
<v Speaker 1>always there in the United States and making everything a

0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:11.559
<v Speaker 1>partisan issue and so which wasn't true. Like in the

0:14:12.920 --> 0:14:15.760
<v Speaker 1>vaccines were like, great, we have the vaccine. We we

0:14:15.760 --> 0:14:17.720
<v Speaker 1>were very proud of the facts in the fifties that

0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:20.960
<v Speaker 1>the US was better at developing vaccines and faster at

0:14:21.000 --> 0:14:24.000
<v Speaker 1>making them than anybody else, and was like everybody was

0:14:24.040 --> 0:14:27.080
<v Speaker 1>like into that, and there was no partisan division on

0:14:27.080 --> 0:14:30.440
<v Speaker 1>this issue. We we've allowed public health to become a

0:14:30.520 --> 0:14:37.000
<v Speaker 1>partisan domain, and therefore mask wearing has become a symbol

0:14:37.040 --> 0:14:41.360
<v Speaker 1>of political affiliation. And the masks here in California are

0:14:41.400 --> 0:14:46.160
<v Speaker 1>going to be worn long after we have huge percentages

0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:48.360
<v Speaker 1>of vaccine, and we're going to have a huge percentage

0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:51.600
<v Speaker 1>of people vaccinated around where I live. We probably already do.

0:14:51.640 --> 0:14:55.280
<v Speaker 1>I was told the other day it's actually over in

0:14:55.360 --> 0:14:58.920
<v Speaker 1>my neighborhood and we're going to carry on wearing masks

0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:04.000
<v Speaker 1>point leslie. Not really because we think we have to

0:15:04.080 --> 0:15:07.440
<v Speaker 1>stay protected from a virus that is no longer really around,

0:15:07.440 --> 0:15:10.040
<v Speaker 1>but but because it's a badge. And somebody says to

0:15:10.080 --> 0:15:11.440
<v Speaker 1>me the other day, Oh, I'm wearing the mask because

0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:15.920
<v Speaker 1>I don't want people to think I'm a conservative. Wow. Right,

0:15:16.880 --> 0:15:19.640
<v Speaker 1>A strange times. I know that when I'm not. When

0:15:19.680 --> 0:15:21.680
<v Speaker 1>I go out of the campus without the mask, I

0:15:21.760 --> 0:15:24.160
<v Speaker 1>know that I'm getting the dirty looks. It's like I'm

0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:29.120
<v Speaker 1>wearing a mega exactly. That that makes me depressed because

0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:32.640
<v Speaker 1>it means that we've totally decoupled what we do in

0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:35.960
<v Speaker 1>public health from science. And often it's the people who

0:15:36.000 --> 0:15:40.440
<v Speaker 1>say the science, follow the science who are least interested

0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:44.920
<v Speaker 1>in actual science. Neil Ferguson, it's always a great pleasure.

0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:46.760
<v Speaker 1>We appreciate the time very much, and we hope we

0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:50.040
<v Speaker 1>can talk again soon. I love that, Thanks so much, guys,

0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:55.840
<v Speaker 1>Thank you, he reminded me um uh, we we did

0:15:55.920 --> 0:15:59.840
<v Speaker 1>know going way back that it doesn't transmit outdoors. Remember

0:15:59.840 --> 0:16:03.120
<v Speaker 1>that footage of the beaches around Los Angeles where the

0:16:03.840 --> 0:16:06.240
<v Speaker 1>COVID cops were waiting on the beach for the kayakers

0:16:06.280 --> 0:16:10.320
<v Speaker 1>to come in. Oh, that's right, people alone out at sea.

0:16:10.400 --> 0:16:13.560
<v Speaker 1>We're being arrested, waiting on the beach to arrest him

0:16:13.600 --> 0:16:16.920
<v Speaker 1>when they got there, because you couldn't. Just absolutely ridiculous.

0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:20.800
<v Speaker 1>I like the fact that Neil Ferguson, who's a smart guy,

0:16:21.480 --> 0:16:26.000
<v Speaker 1>gives the world an f in its response to this. Yeah. Absolutely,

0:16:26.480 --> 0:16:29.560
<v Speaker 1>And and the fact that he attributes it. I've been

0:16:29.600 --> 0:16:31.400
<v Speaker 1>reading some of the summaries of the book and the

0:16:31.480 --> 0:16:33.920
<v Speaker 1>chapter headings and that sort of thing. He attributes it

0:16:33.960 --> 0:16:41.600
<v Speaker 1>to essentially bureaucrat ease, the disease of of bureaucratitis, where

0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:45.720
<v Speaker 1>there are just too many small people in small minds

0:16:45.760 --> 0:16:48.800
<v Speaker 1>and egos and protecting the bureaucrat for all policy to

0:16:48.840 --> 0:16:51.720
<v Speaker 1>pass through, and it just it can't. It's like a

0:16:51.720 --> 0:16:55.040
<v Speaker 1>filter that the openings are too small for the particles

0:16:55.040 --> 0:16:59.600
<v Speaker 1>that need to get through, and you just can't have good, effective,

0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:03.440
<v Speaker 1>tie only policy in the system we have. So the

0:17:03.480 --> 0:17:06.159
<v Speaker 1>book we're talking about is doomed the politics of catastrophe.

0:17:06.240 --> 0:17:08.840
<v Speaker 1>You can grab any book the Neil Ferguson's ever written,

0:17:09.240 --> 0:17:11.439
<v Speaker 1>and you'll be better for having picked it up and

0:17:11.480 --> 0:17:13.320
<v Speaker 1>read it. So yeah, here, we're here.