1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:04,200 Speaker 1: We're all doomed. It's Armstrong and Getty extra large, because 2 00:00:04,240 --> 00:00:09,080 Speaker 1: four hours simply isn't enough. This is Armstrong and Getty 3 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: extra Large. Doom is actually the title of the new 4 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:19,959 Speaker 1: book from Neil Ferguson, Doomed, The Politics of Catastrophe. In 5 00:00:19,960 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 1: the opening of his book references a sitcom that I 6 00:00:22,560 --> 00:00:25,280 Speaker 1: don't know as an American, in which one of the characters, apparently, 7 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:27,840 Speaker 1: no matter what happened, would we say we're all doomed, 8 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:32,040 Speaker 1: which is alert. I was laughing quietly as you alluded 9 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 1: to Dad's army. We're doomed. It's a very Scottish thing 10 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: to say, which is part of the reason that I 11 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:42,479 Speaker 1: gave the book the title doom. But but actually we're 12 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:44,760 Speaker 1: doomed as a Star Wars line. I hadn't realized this 13 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:49,159 Speaker 1: until I started researching. We're doomed in popular culture, and 14 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 1: I think it's a common response when anything goes wrong there. 15 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 1: There there are those people who think when disaster strikes 16 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 1: that it's the end of the world, and then there 17 00:00:57,600 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 1: are those people who win disaster strikes are like the 18 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 1: guy on the jacket of the book who's carrying on 19 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:07,760 Speaker 1: sinking his part as the wildfire rages behind him, And 20 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 1: I think part part of our problem with with disasters 21 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 1: is that that we kind of divide into the people 22 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:17,200 Speaker 1: who who freak out and the people who go into denial. Well, 23 00:01:17,200 --> 00:01:19,960 Speaker 1: we're always pleased when people we admire agree with us. 24 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 1: It makes us feel better about ourselves. And you seem 25 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:26,040 Speaker 1: to share our belief that the fixation on the chief 26 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 1: executive president of the United States, for instance, as as 27 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:32,399 Speaker 1: some sort of godhead who can ensued fix all problems 28 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 1: is pretty misplaced, right. Paul Stoy in Warren Peace makes 29 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 1: fun of the idea that Napoleon was in command of 30 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 1: the destinies of all Europeans, And as in a Storian, 31 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 1: I've tended to be skeptical of the idea that it's 32 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 1: all about one or two great or wicked men. That's 33 00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:55,200 Speaker 1: not because I'm a Marxist his Storian. On the contrary, 34 00:01:55,240 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 1: I just think that in truth, the history's complex process, 35 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 1: and very rarely is the man at the top, and 36 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:05,560 Speaker 1: it's usually a man in sole charge, especially when disaster strikes. 37 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 1: So what happened last year was that all those people 38 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:11,680 Speaker 1: who've had it in for Trump already were given the 39 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 1: perfect opportunity to say that it was all his fault. 40 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:18,519 Speaker 1: Jim Fallows wrote a piece in the Atlantic that said, 41 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:22,240 Speaker 1: when I fly my light aircraft, I'm in charge, so 42 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:24,639 Speaker 1: if something goes wrong, it's my fault, and the president 43 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: is in the analogous situation. Now, being the president United 44 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:31,799 Speaker 1: States is not like flying a light aircraft. It really 45 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 1: is not, because you're in charge of a vast number 46 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 1: of different agencies and you can't possibly keep an eye 47 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 1: on every threat the nation faces. In practice, in every 48 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 1: country when there's a pandemic, there is a bunch of 49 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 1: people whose job that is. In the US, there's the 50 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:50,079 Speaker 1: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there's the Department of 51 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:52,960 Speaker 1: Health and Human Services. They even have a Deputy Secretary 52 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:57,919 Speaker 1: for preparedness. And the idea that it's the president's job 53 00:02:58,040 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 1: to sit there and make calls about making tests available 54 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:05,240 Speaker 1: for a new coronavirus is is a cartoon version of 55 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:08,400 Speaker 1: how government works. And I think if we draw the conclusion, 56 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:10,519 Speaker 1: and I'm afraid that many, many, many people have, we 57 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 1: draw the conclusion that this was all Sump's fault, that 58 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 1: we wouldn't have had half a million plus dead if 59 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:19,720 Speaker 1: it had been Joe Biden, who somehow magically got elected 60 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 1: a year early. Then we are not going to learn 61 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 1: anything from this experience, and the next disaster will be 62 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:28,240 Speaker 1: just as big as the battle. So but I believe 63 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:30,360 Speaker 1: we talked to you right at the beginning of the 64 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:34,240 Speaker 1: pandemic and um, and we're talking about how it looks 65 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:35,960 Speaker 1: like this is going to shape up to be, you know, 66 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 1: the sort of thing that makes history books for centuries 67 00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 1: to come. Like it's that big of a deal. What 68 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 1: do you give the world for a grade on reacting 69 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 1: to this, this this horrible thing that that struck us 70 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:50,800 Speaker 1: a year ago. Yeah, I'd have to say that the 71 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 1: f it comes to mind at this point. And uh, 72 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 1: you know you don't need to take it from me, 73 00:03:56,680 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 1: because there's a new report that's just come out the 74 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 1: Independent Panel, which has I think arrived at somewhat similar 75 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 1: conclusions to my own, namely that this was an avoidable 76 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 1: disaster if we had acted the way say the Taiwanese 77 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:16,479 Speaker 1: and the South Koreans did early, quickly ramping up testing 78 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 1: and creating contact tracing, isolating people who were infected, we 79 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 1: did not need to have a global pandemic. And indeed 80 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 1: Taiwan did not have significant excess mortality at all. I 81 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:29,840 Speaker 1: think twelve people have died of COVID in Taiwan, and 82 00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 1: they're right next to China. So we know that this 83 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:35,040 Speaker 1: did not have to be this way. We know that 84 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 1: we did not have to have more than half a 85 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:41,479 Speaker 1: million Americans die premature ly. But the problem, I think 86 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:45,720 Speaker 1: is that that we are seeking simplistic narratives about the 87 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:49,279 Speaker 1: story which are going to lead us to miss what 88 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:53,040 Speaker 1: is really amiss, what is really wrong. After all, this 89 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:55,960 Speaker 1: is not the only disaster that we have handled badly 90 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:59,080 Speaker 1: in recent times. I don't think you could claim that 91 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:03,400 Speaker 1: we handle nine eleven brilliantly. Certainly with the benefit of hindsight, 92 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:07,200 Speaker 1: Invading Iraq doesn't seem like the best possible reaction to 93 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:11,640 Speaker 1: that crisis. Financial crisis, well, on paper, we were prepared. 94 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:14,840 Speaker 1: We had all kinds of regulations in place, but that 95 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:17,680 Speaker 1: was a pretty big debacle. And then on paper we 96 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:20,119 Speaker 1: were prepared for a pandemic. It was just that maybe 97 00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 1: we've got the wrong sort of pandemic. I don't know 98 00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 1: what the excuse would be, but I think there's a 99 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:28,040 Speaker 1: pattern here of failure, and I don't think it's always 100 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 1: been this way, because we have great scientific knowledge. We 101 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:35,840 Speaker 1: we understand a lot about the disasters that we are 102 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 1: likely to encounter, but it feels to me as if 103 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:44,599 Speaker 1: our response has become less competent compared, let's say, with 104 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:48,280 Speaker 1: the nineteen fifties, when in the face of the so 105 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 1: called Asian Flu of nineteen fifty seven, the Eisenhower administration 106 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:56,040 Speaker 1: was able to cope with the challenge and deal with 107 00:05:56,080 --> 00:06:00,479 Speaker 1: the disruption of excess mortality without shutting the economy me down, 108 00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 1: without letting the deficit explode, without creating all the kinds 109 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:10,279 Speaker 1: of I think avoidable and costly mistakes that were made 110 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 1: in I know one of the themes of the book 111 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:16,039 Speaker 1: is that you you believe we have a what you 112 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:20,160 Speaker 1: call a middle management problem, a bloated complex bureaucracy problem. 113 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:24,160 Speaker 1: Tell us more about that. Well, it's, as we were 114 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 1: saying earlier, very easy just to say this was all 115 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 1: down to Trump, and I think we've got to avoid 116 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:34,080 Speaker 1: drawing that conclusion. Not that he didn't make many, many mistakes, 117 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:37,640 Speaker 1: But in truth, it wasn't because of Trump that CDC 118 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:41,320 Speaker 1: completely failed to make testing available early in the in 119 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:45,159 Speaker 1: the pandemic. The c d C folks, first they stopped 120 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 1: anybody else from developing tests, and then they produced a 121 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 1: test of their own that didn't work. And I'd love 122 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 1: to believe the President United States is is busily monitoring 123 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 1: the activities of laboratories at c d C. But let's 124 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 1: face it, that's not how this job works. I learned 125 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 1: a very important lesson from studying another disaster. It was 126 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:08,800 Speaker 1: actually a smaller disaster in terms of death, but a 127 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 1: pretty spectacular one in terms of its impact on American imaginations. 128 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:17,360 Speaker 1: And that was the explosion of the Space Shuttle Challenger 129 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 1: shortly after its launch, and a brilliant manner physicist named 130 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:24,200 Speaker 1: Richard Feynman wrote a book about that. He was involved 131 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:26,640 Speaker 1: in the inquiry, and in the book he observes that 132 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 1: the initial impulse of the media was to try and 133 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:32,040 Speaker 1: pin it on Roll Reagan, to to try to claim that, oh, 134 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:35,080 Speaker 1: that the Shuffle launch had been rushed because Reagan wanted 135 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 1: to reference it in a speech, And this was all 136 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:41,880 Speaker 1: completely made up. The reality was that at NASA, the 137 00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 1: engineers knew that this thing had a one percent, one 138 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:47,720 Speaker 1: and a hundred chance of blowing up. They knew there 139 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 1: was a problem, especially at low temperatures. But the bureaucrats 140 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 1: at NASA decided to change that one and a hundred 141 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 1: chance to one in a hundred thousand in order not 142 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:01,840 Speaker 1: to reveal to the people who were backing the Space 143 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 1: Shuttle program, namely Congress, that there was a significant risk 144 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:09,040 Speaker 1: of a disaster. Now, I think throughout history we find 145 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 1: that guy in middle management again and again, inserting the 146 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 1: point of failure into the chain of command. But we 147 00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 1: always want to blame the person at the top. So 148 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 1: the Titanic sinks, and it's the owner of the shipping 149 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 1: line who gets the maximum blame and opprobrium heaped upon him, 150 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:33,600 Speaker 1: But that is not really the key to the losses 151 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 1: on the Titanic. And I think in the same way, 152 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:39,760 Speaker 1: you kind of go through the disasters and you start 153 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 1: to realize that it's it's rarely the person who's really 154 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 1: at fault who gets the blame and a disaster, we 155 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:50,040 Speaker 1: we tend to want to pin the blame on whoever's 156 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:52,840 Speaker 1: at the top of the chain of command, But disasters 157 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 1: generally don't really unfold because of major errors at the top. 158 00:08:57,559 --> 00:09:00,320 Speaker 1: I mean, it wasn't just to give another random exact ample, 159 00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:03,679 Speaker 1: it wasn't Winston Churchill's fault that the defense of Singapore 160 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:07,960 Speaker 1: was completely bungled in World War Two. We can certainly say, 161 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:11,959 Speaker 1: with Harry Trueman, the buck stops here. Responsibility ultimately lies 162 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 1: with the president of the prime minister. Sure, but let's 163 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:18,080 Speaker 1: not tell ourselves a fairy story that if only we'd 164 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:20,599 Speaker 1: had a different president last year, that had all have 165 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 1: been fine, because that that seems to me like a 166 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 1: complete fairy story. Yeah, the example you gave fits with 167 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:28,240 Speaker 1: the story of the day yesterday when the New York 168 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:31,680 Speaker 1: Times let us know that the c d C saying 169 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:36,840 Speaker 1: less than ten percent of transmissions were outdoors when the 170 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:40,400 Speaker 1: real number was point zero one percent or whatever. It's 171 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:43,560 Speaker 1: the same sort of thing, crazy crazy, And you know, 172 00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 1: that's a very good example of what was going wrong 173 00:09:47,320 --> 00:09:50,160 Speaker 1: and is still going wrong. It was obvious a year 174 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:52,800 Speaker 1: ago if you were paying attention to the research that 175 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 1: was coming out of China and then North ficially where 176 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 1: the disease first really struck, that it wasn't being transmitted outdoors. 177 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:02,959 Speaker 1: I mean there were literally no cases out of Wuhan 178 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 1: of outdoor transmission. And I remember reading this and thinking, oh, 179 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:11,000 Speaker 1: that's interesting, And so we ignored that for a year 180 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:16,720 Speaker 1: and introduced a whole range of totally stupid restrictions, of 181 00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:21,800 Speaker 1: which my personal bugbear were the closures of parks and beaches. 182 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:25,520 Speaker 1: California shut down its public spaces, so not only locked 183 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:27,880 Speaker 1: people in their homes, but they then prevented them from 184 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:30,680 Speaker 1: going outdoors. And then, of course you have the mask 185 00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 1: wearing outdoors, which is actually entirely pointless. And this was 186 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:37,360 Speaker 1: not It's not like we just figured this out. This 187 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:41,600 Speaker 1: was obvious. It was obviously in March of last year, 188 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:46,840 Speaker 1: because nobody was getting this virus in outdoor settings. You 189 00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:50,880 Speaker 1: could see already in the spring the super spreader effect 190 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 1: that basically twent of infected people did, of the spreading, 191 00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 1: you could see already over a year ago that this 192 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 1: thing disproportionately killed people over the age of sixty five. 193 00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:04,640 Speaker 1: And you could see the places that it's spread. They 194 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:08,560 Speaker 1: were indoor settings where large numbers of people were fairly 195 00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:12,000 Speaker 1: close together yelling or singing, and so the places that 196 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:14,280 Speaker 1: you should shut down in a situation like that of 197 00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 1: the restaurants and the bars, and you should certainly not 198 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:19,200 Speaker 1: be having people go to church. But that stuff was 199 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:23,000 Speaker 1: that was not difficult to see. I'm not a virologist 200 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:25,680 Speaker 1: or an epidemiologist. I'm a historian, but I was reading 201 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:27,480 Speaker 1: the literature as it was coming out because it was 202 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:30,560 Speaker 1: pretty fascinated by by the fact that we were in 203 00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:33,720 Speaker 1: the midst of an obviously historic disaster. And it is 204 00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 1: mystifying to me that so many public officials whose job 205 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:40,920 Speaker 1: this was got things as basic as that wrong and 206 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:44,080 Speaker 1: imposed a set of restrictions in the population that were 207 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 1: ultimately harmful. It must have been harmful to stop people 208 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:52,240 Speaker 1: getting outdoors and to confine them indoors when the virus 209 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 1: is something that spreads indoors. Well, what makes us insane, 210 00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:58,400 Speaker 1: and perhaps you can help us tease out what's going 211 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 1: on here, is that so many of the the protective 212 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 1: methods to policies that have been disproved months and months 213 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:08,840 Speaker 1: ago remain like the masks outdoors. Is that just? Is 214 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 1: that a fixation on COVID? Is that bureaucracy is not 215 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:16,559 Speaker 1: at work? Is that bias in favor of the status quo? 216 00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 1: What's going on with that? I think there are two things. One, 217 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:24,800 Speaker 1: we have a bureaucratic mentality which regards all risk can, 218 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:30,319 Speaker 1: no matter what the probability is, as unacceptable. And the 219 00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:32,440 Speaker 1: fun of that, if you're a bureaucrat is that you 220 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:35,559 Speaker 1: can generate endless regulations and then let people get off 221 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:37,640 Speaker 1: on that to an extent that I think some of 222 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 1: us find hard to comprehend. But I see this not 223 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:43,360 Speaker 1: only at the state level, but at the local level, 224 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:45,600 Speaker 1: the county level, at the campus level, just the kind 225 00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:48,880 Speaker 1: of desire to create regulations for their own sake. I'll 226 00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:51,200 Speaker 1: give you a great example. The swimming pool where I 227 00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:53,840 Speaker 1: take my kids has all kinds of precautions in place, 228 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:56,480 Speaker 1: and my favorite is the buffer lane. There is a 229 00:12:56,720 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 1: lane that is left empty between where kids can swim 230 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 1: and adults can do lap swimming because of course the 231 00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 1: stars Coby too virus loves to swim in chlorinated water. 232 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:11,240 Speaker 1: But it really can't swim across. It can only swim it. 233 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:15,559 Speaker 1: Come on, guys, and my credit to my nine year old. 234 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 1: He's like, he's nine, he knows as his bullshit, and 235 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 1: it's like, so he swims into the buffer lane to 236 00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 1: provoke what he calls the COVID police, and the COVID police, 237 00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:27,080 Speaker 1: the poor people who have to enforce these regulations. We 238 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:29,960 Speaker 1: really come over and tell him to go back into 239 00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:33,320 Speaker 1: into his lane, and they must know it's it's it's 240 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:36,720 Speaker 1: crap too. So We have a curious phenomenon, which is 241 00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 1: that there are some people who just love regulation and 242 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:42,240 Speaker 1: they love to control people's lives and it gets them 243 00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:44,440 Speaker 1: out of bed in the morning. And this was their 244 00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:50,080 Speaker 1: permission to regulate our every activity, no matter what the 245 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:52,679 Speaker 1: sign said. I don't think they paid the slightest attention 246 00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:55,040 Speaker 1: to the signs. It was just like, oh, great, now 247 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 1: we can create a lane where nobody can swim. The 248 00:13:57,840 --> 00:14:00,720 Speaker 1: other thing that's going on, which I mean, this makes 249 00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:03,520 Speaker 1: me crazy, um, but the other thing that's going on 250 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:05,680 Speaker 1: is that that we've developed a habit which was not 251 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:08,080 Speaker 1: always there in the United States and making everything a 252 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:11,559 Speaker 1: partisan issue and so which wasn't true. Like in the 253 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 1: vaccines were like, great, we have the vaccine. We we 254 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:17,720 Speaker 1: were very proud of the facts in the fifties that 255 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 1: the US was better at developing vaccines and faster at 256 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 1: making them than anybody else, and was like everybody was 257 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 1: like into that, and there was no partisan division on 258 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:30,440 Speaker 1: this issue. We we've allowed public health to become a 259 00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:37,000 Speaker 1: partisan domain, and therefore mask wearing has become a symbol 260 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:41,360 Speaker 1: of political affiliation. And the masks here in California are 261 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:46,160 Speaker 1: going to be worn long after we have huge percentages 262 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 1: of vaccine, and we're going to have a huge percentage 263 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 1: of people vaccinated around where I live. We probably already do. 264 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 1: I was told the other day it's actually over in 265 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 1: my neighborhood and we're going to carry on wearing masks 266 00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:04,000 Speaker 1: point leslie. Not really because we think we have to 267 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 1: stay protected from a virus that is no longer really around, 268 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:10,040 Speaker 1: but but because it's a badge. And somebody says to 269 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 1: me the other day, Oh, I'm wearing the mask because 270 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 1: I don't want people to think I'm a conservative. Wow. Right, 271 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 1: A strange times. I know that when I'm not. When 272 00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 1: I go out of the campus without the mask, I 273 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 1: know that I'm getting the dirty looks. It's like I'm 274 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 1: wearing a mega exactly. That that makes me depressed because 275 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:32,640 Speaker 1: it means that we've totally decoupled what we do in 276 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 1: public health from science. And often it's the people who 277 00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:40,440 Speaker 1: say the science, follow the science who are least interested 278 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:44,920 Speaker 1: in actual science. Neil Ferguson, it's always a great pleasure. 279 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:46,760 Speaker 1: We appreciate the time very much, and we hope we 280 00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 1: can talk again soon. I love that, Thanks so much, guys, 281 00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:55,840 Speaker 1: Thank you, he reminded me um uh, we we did 282 00:15:55,920 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 1: know going way back that it doesn't transmit outdoors. Remember 283 00:15:59,840 --> 00:16:03,120 Speaker 1: that footage of the beaches around Los Angeles where the 284 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:06,240 Speaker 1: COVID cops were waiting on the beach for the kayakers 285 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:10,320 Speaker 1: to come in. Oh, that's right, people alone out at sea. 286 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 1: We're being arrested, waiting on the beach to arrest him 287 00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 1: when they got there, because you couldn't. Just absolutely ridiculous. 288 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:20,800 Speaker 1: I like the fact that Neil Ferguson, who's a smart guy, 289 00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:26,000 Speaker 1: gives the world an f in its response to this. Yeah. Absolutely, 290 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 1: And and the fact that he attributes it. I've been 291 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:31,400 Speaker 1: reading some of the summaries of the book and the 292 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 1: chapter headings and that sort of thing. He attributes it 293 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 1: to essentially bureaucrat ease, the disease of of bureaucratitis, where 294 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 1: there are just too many small people in small minds 295 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:48,800 Speaker 1: and egos and protecting the bureaucrat for all policy to 296 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:51,720 Speaker 1: pass through, and it just it can't. It's like a 297 00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:55,040 Speaker 1: filter that the openings are too small for the particles 298 00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:59,600 Speaker 1: that need to get through, and you just can't have good, effective, 299 00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:03,440 Speaker 1: tie only policy in the system we have. So the 300 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:06,159 Speaker 1: book we're talking about is doomed the politics of catastrophe. 301 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 1: You can grab any book the Neil Ferguson's ever written, 302 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:11,439 Speaker 1: and you'll be better for having picked it up and 303 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 1: read it. So yeah, here, we're here.