WEBVTT - Surveillance: Election Day Special 0:00:00.320 --> 0:00:04.160 Who you put your trust in matters. Investors have put 0:00:04.200 --> 0:00:07.640 their trust in independent registered investment advisors to the tune 0:00:07.640 --> 0:00:12.240 of four trillion dollars. Why learn more and find your 0:00:12.240 --> 0:00:28.200 independent advisor dot com. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 0:00:28.600 --> 0:00:32.320 I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you 0:00:32.360 --> 0:00:37.400 insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 0:00:37.800 --> 0:00:42.400 Find Bloomberg Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and 0:00:42.479 --> 0:00:50.400 of course, on the Bloomberg On Bloomberg Surveillance Today. Greg 0:00:50.479 --> 0:00:53.600 Valier from Horizon Investments, David Harrow of Harris Associates, Megan 0:00:53.600 --> 0:00:56.400 Green for Manual Life, and Stephen Roach, formerly Morgan Stanley's 0:00:56.480 --> 0:00:59.920 Chief Economists, former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, now Senior 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:02.120 Lecturer at the Jackson Institute of Global Affairs at Yale 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:06.360 University and Senior lecturer at the School of Management. And Stephen, 0:01:06.360 --> 0:01:08.399 great to have you with us, Great to be here. 0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:10.240 Thank you. I wonder how you were going to be 0:01:10.360 --> 0:01:12.920 Uh want has Stephen Roach, renowned economist, is going to 0:01:12.959 --> 0:01:14.600 be watching the results come in? And I don't mean 0:01:14.600 --> 0:01:15.960 are you gonna get a spot on a couch? And 0:01:16.000 --> 0:01:19.440 the Schwartzman Center, Yale not to watch the votes rolling, 0:01:19.520 --> 0:01:21.120 But what are you gonna be looking for? How are 0:01:21.120 --> 0:01:23.320 you going to process what's happening here tonight and indeed 0:01:23.319 --> 0:01:26.920 maybe tomorrow. You know, I I, as I said on 0:01:27.000 --> 0:01:29.520 TV a few minutes ago, I have a sneaking suspicion 0:01:29.560 --> 0:01:33.120 this is not going to be close. That the poll 0:01:33.240 --> 0:01:39.240 showed a little bit of momentum post uh FBI twist 0:01:39.280 --> 0:01:43.720 and and and that that is now out of the 0:01:43.720 --> 0:01:48.480 the game. And I think that the American public, um, 0:01:48.560 --> 0:01:50.280 I think we have to give them credit for having 0:01:50.400 --> 0:01:55.360 more character than um uh Donald Trump does. And I 0:01:55.400 --> 0:01:59.200 think there's gonna be a strong reaction against uh everything 0:01:59.240 --> 0:02:02.000 that he stands for. And I think that, you know, 0:02:02.120 --> 0:02:05.360 the decency of the American people will ultimately prevail in 0:02:05.440 --> 0:02:08.120 choosing the next president. We've talked a lot about d 0:02:08.240 --> 0:02:09.959 we can continue to talk about here what effect the 0:02:09.960 --> 0:02:12.480 election could have on the economy going forward. But looking 0:02:12.520 --> 0:02:16.440 back on the campaign, that's incredibly long, nineteen month campaign, 0:02:17.040 --> 0:02:19.640 what measurably, what effects measurably have that had has that 0:02:19.680 --> 0:02:22.120 had on the on the economy. I don't think it's 0:02:22.160 --> 0:02:24.640 had much of anything. I think the economy is is 0:02:25.440 --> 0:02:29.320 really been operating um with the very little steam. Growth 0:02:29.320 --> 0:02:32.880 has faltered a lot in the last UM year from 0:02:32.960 --> 0:02:37.040 an already anemic trajectory that had been on since the crisis. 0:02:37.080 --> 0:02:39.760 I think the economy is struggling against a lot of 0:02:39.800 --> 0:02:42.720 tough headwinds. Some of the headwinds are global, but most 0:02:42.760 --> 0:02:46.200 of them are of our own making. The Federal Reserve 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:49.320 is done everything and it's power to jump start the 0:02:49.360 --> 0:02:53.200 economy with zero interest rates and massive balance sheet expansion. 0:02:53.320 --> 0:02:56.760 That hasn't worked. Uh. We haven't gotten the fiscal kick 0:02:56.840 --> 0:02:58.919 that many believe would make a difference. I'm a little 0:02:59.280 --> 0:03:02.080 suspicious of that as well as if we can manufacture 0:03:02.919 --> 0:03:08.040 a recovery and aggregate consumer demand by infrastructure spending, as 0:03:08.440 --> 0:03:12.120 the secular stagnation crowd would want you to believe. Um. 0:03:12.160 --> 0:03:15.240 I think we need a deep rethink of of the 0:03:15.440 --> 0:03:17.919 dynamics or lack there of the American economy. And I 0:03:17.960 --> 0:03:22.160 think that's what um uh President Clinton is going to 0:03:22.200 --> 0:03:25.200 have to face in early on in her administration. This 0:03:25.280 --> 0:03:28.320 hasn't been a campaign of real serious thinking that There's 0:03:28.320 --> 0:03:31.280 been a lot of rhetoric and other possy is she's 0:03:31.480 --> 0:03:34.120 a are you at all optimistic that we will get 0:03:34.160 --> 0:03:36.200 that that period of introspection, that that will have a 0:03:36.200 --> 0:03:38.040 deep think about where the economy. I think that's a 0:03:38.160 --> 0:03:41.480 terrific question. And I think, um, uh, the one thing 0:03:41.520 --> 0:03:46.080 I do know about um Hillary Clinton as a you know, 0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:48.840 as a senator, actually as a first lady, as a 0:03:48.880 --> 0:03:55.360 Secretary of State, that she has got a spectacular her mind, uh, 0:03:55.440 --> 0:03:58.600 and she's had to put a lot of that intellectual 0:03:58.640 --> 0:04:05.120 firepower on old deal with very aggressive and a nasty campaign. 0:04:05.200 --> 0:04:06.920 And I hope she can go back to her strengths 0:04:07.240 --> 0:04:11.040 as somebody who really gets the the concepts and the 0:04:11.120 --> 0:04:14.000 issues uh that are at the heart of the challenge 0:04:14.040 --> 0:04:16.760 that she will face as president, not just in the 0:04:16.760 --> 0:04:20.120 economic arena, but in the foreign policy arena and in 0:04:20.160 --> 0:04:24.440 the social arena as well. And she's got, uh, I think, 0:04:24.640 --> 0:04:27.400 great skill sets to to grapple with all of those 0:04:27.440 --> 0:04:29.640 and then put them together. And let's hope that she 0:04:29.680 --> 0:04:33.440 can put together the team that can really address these challenges. 0:04:33.680 --> 0:04:36.560 Steven Roae Triville University with us today of course his 0:04:36.640 --> 0:04:39.680 book classic book, The Next Asia, as we talked to 0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:42.599 him about the Next America. Or you can also follow 0:04:42.680 --> 0:04:47.120 David Gura, who will be on radio for hours and 0:04:47.160 --> 0:04:50.280 then I believe John Tucker, they've given him away on 0:04:50.360 --> 0:04:58.000 television during the daylight hours. Will be Oh, parent teacher conference, 0:04:59.240 --> 0:05:02.000 let's go right, How do our surveillance expert on parent 0:05:02.120 --> 0:05:07.840 teacher conferences? He has nine daughters? Stephen, Steve, Sorry, how 0:05:07.880 --> 0:05:12.800 do you approach a parent teacher conference? Help younger? Coffee? 0:05:12.080 --> 0:05:17.160 Lots of coffee and um deference. Right, yeah, listen, be 0:05:16.800 --> 0:05:20.480 a be a good listener, and but draw the line, 0:05:20.480 --> 0:05:22.359 you know, if it goes a little too far, stand 0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:25.560 up for your kid. Understood. I love it. Uh. Let 0:05:25.560 --> 0:05:27.280 me ask you about I'm glad you brought up the 0:05:27.320 --> 0:05:30.000 specter of fiscal stimulus. Both these candidates have talked about 0:05:30.040 --> 0:05:34.960 spending billions on infrastructure here if if they're elected, what 0:05:34.960 --> 0:05:37.000 what are the what are the what could be the 0:05:37.000 --> 0:05:38.360 near term effects of that? What could be the long 0:05:38.440 --> 0:05:40.400 term effects of something like that? If indeed there are 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:44.800 potential for long term effects. Look, America needs to repair 0:05:44.839 --> 0:05:47.240 its infrastructure. I mean, you know, on the car right 0:05:47.320 --> 0:05:52.760 in today from um Connecticut into Manhattan, you know, I 0:05:53.600 --> 0:05:59.240 think I had um whiplash multiple times from hitting innumerable 0:05:59.279 --> 0:06:01.920 potholes and us is you know, not even the pothole season, 0:06:02.000 --> 0:06:04.919 Yet the roads in the city, the airports in this 0:06:05.000 --> 0:06:09.880 city are pathetic. We all know we need infrastructure, but 0:06:10.040 --> 0:06:13.880 is this going to fix what ails the American economy? 0:06:13.920 --> 0:06:18.599 We need to look at that very carefully. Infrastructure can 0:06:18.640 --> 0:06:24.320 boost aggregate demands through public sector spending for a temporary 0:06:24.360 --> 0:06:28.359 period of time, but unless it catches on to drive 0:06:29.120 --> 0:06:32.800 consumers and businesses to really raise their sights on growth, 0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:36.920 aspirations and expectations, Uh, then it's again. It's it's sort 0:06:36.920 --> 0:06:38.760 of like pushing on a string, and we've been pushing 0:06:38.920 --> 0:06:41.279 on lots of strings in the last ten years. Let's 0:06:41.320 --> 0:06:43.360 take you back to Morgan Stanley. You and Dick burn 0:06:43.360 --> 0:06:45.880 are sitting around at a table twenty years ago, and 0:06:46.000 --> 0:06:49.320 somebody says, here's the aggregate economy two point whatever percent, 0:06:50.040 --> 0:06:52.440 But we really ought to take out inventories and take 0:06:52.440 --> 0:06:55.719 out exports. That parlor games going on right now. Do 0:06:55.800 --> 0:06:59.880 you disaggregate economic growth to make it a domestic statistic 0:07:00.520 --> 0:07:01.920 or do you take it all in and say the 0:07:02.000 --> 0:07:05.400 last quarter was actually pretty good? Look, Tom, I mean 0:07:06.800 --> 0:07:10.040 g d P is a broad construct that consists of 0:07:10.160 --> 0:07:14.640 lots of different pieces. Um I In in the last 0:07:15.240 --> 0:07:18.600 ten years um more so than my good friend Dick 0:07:18.680 --> 0:07:22.400 has focused on the American consumer, because I think that 0:07:22.560 --> 0:07:27.760 has really been uh uh the Achilles heel of the 0:07:27.880 --> 0:07:32.480 U s economy, as consumers binged out on spending by 0:07:32.720 --> 0:07:36.080 borrowing against a property bubble and using a credit bubble 0:07:36.120 --> 0:07:39.000 to do it. When the bubbles burst, the consumer was 0:07:39.080 --> 0:07:42.200 left holding the bag and they're still trying to climb out. 0:07:42.440 --> 0:07:46.040 Pulls her open to New Hampshire. David blanche Flower tweeting out, 0:07:46.120 --> 0:07:50.720 let me quote exactly the esteemed professor from Dartmouth College. 0:07:51.320 --> 0:07:53.520 I am in the great advocate of KWEI. I am 0:07:53.560 --> 0:07:57.800 an immigrant, and I am voting proudly for at Hillary Clinton. 0:07:57.880 --> 0:08:01.679 That from Professor blanch Flower, Uh, there's not alone in Hanover, 0:08:02.040 --> 0:08:04.960 Steve Roach, where's our immigration right now? The answer is 0:08:04.960 --> 0:08:08.800 there's less immigration, and that folds directly into less nominal GDP, 0:08:08.960 --> 0:08:14.200 doesn't it? Well? I think you know, the one distinguishing 0:08:14.200 --> 0:08:18.160 feature about the US economy compared to other developed economies 0:08:18.200 --> 0:08:21.720 is that we can continue to enjoy population growth both 0:08:21.760 --> 0:08:27.080 through up a positive uh net birth rate as well 0:08:27.120 --> 0:08:30.640 as their positive immigration tom and and although the rate 0:08:30.640 --> 0:08:34.600 of increases somewhat slower than it has been. Uh. We 0:08:34.600 --> 0:08:39.760 we continue to um uh, as I said, boost our workforce, 0:08:40.040 --> 0:08:43.400 and um we need to do that to overcome very 0:08:43.440 --> 0:08:46.559 tough productivity headwinds. David gerin time Keene thrilled you with 0:08:46.760 --> 0:08:51.400 us nationwide this election day. Good morning on Sirious an 0:08:51.559 --> 0:08:55.000 XM Channel one nineteen. Many of you, I'm sure going 0:08:55.000 --> 0:08:58.280 to the polls and waking up across Central Mountain and 0:08:58.320 --> 0:09:01.600 Pacific time as well. We begin our coverage this morning 0:09:01.600 --> 0:09:04.960 with Stephen Roach of Yale University. Stephen, I want to 0:09:05.000 --> 0:09:08.640 color the consumer here. You have provided immense leadership in 0:09:08.679 --> 0:09:12.480 the shortfall of our consumption. Is it just we build 0:09:12.559 --> 0:09:15.240 up so much debt coming out of World War Two, 0:09:15.640 --> 0:09:20.760 moving on and then even adding on more debt from there. Well, Tom, 0:09:20.760 --> 0:09:24.520 there's a secular uptrend in in debt to income for 0:09:24.640 --> 0:09:29.200 American households. But what happened is that, um, you know, 0:09:29.320 --> 0:09:35.280 in the late nineties in early two thousands, we we 0:09:35.400 --> 0:09:37.360 talked it up in a in a big way, and 0:09:37.400 --> 0:09:40.360 so in debt to income, which had been on an 0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:44.960 upward trend, uh, sword to about um I think a 0:09:45.040 --> 0:09:52.360 hundred thirty of disposable personal income versus an average of 0:09:52.720 --> 0:09:58.079 about seventy in the final three decades of the twentieth century, 0:09:58.600 --> 0:10:04.960 and that debt was levered against a massive, unprecedented property 0:10:05.000 --> 0:10:09.559 bubble UH and aiden and inbedded by your friend the Maestro, 0:10:09.760 --> 0:10:13.840 who believed that um uh rising debt to income was 0:10:13.920 --> 0:10:17.320 not a threat because America was not experiencing a nationwide 0:10:17.360 --> 0:10:21.960 housing bubble. When both bubbles burst, property and credit, UM, 0:10:22.120 --> 0:10:24.280 the consumers were in the biggest hole they'd been in, 0:10:24.760 --> 0:10:27.000 uh since the nineteen thirties. And digging out of that 0:10:27.080 --> 0:10:30.840 hole is what a balance sheet recession is all about. 0:10:30.960 --> 0:10:33.520 And we've made progress. But I'd say, you know, in 0:10:33.559 --> 0:10:36.280 a nine inning baseball game, which you're familiar with, Tom 0:10:36.360 --> 0:10:40.080 as a Red Sox fan, sadly, UM, we're probably in, 0:10:40.200 --> 0:10:43.000 you know, the fifth of the sixth inning, and uh. 0:10:43.160 --> 0:10:44.880 That means there's still a lot to be played, and 0:10:44.920 --> 0:10:46.839 we may even have to go into extra innings. Do 0:10:47.520 --> 0:10:50.720 you see David the hot stove League stove. I mean 0:10:50.760 --> 0:10:53.760 they have the coals upon the fire and Rouch has 0:10:53.800 --> 0:10:58.000 already killing me. I'm still in the therapy. May I 0:10:58.080 --> 0:10:59.439 use that as a segue? You would ask you a 0:10:59.520 --> 0:11:02.360 question about China and the degree to which the administration 0:11:02.360 --> 0:11:04.280 there is worried about, aware of and worried about the 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:07.240 debt picture. There. We saw a rejiggering of the leadership, 0:11:07.240 --> 0:11:10.440 a new a new finance minister there. What does that 0:11:10.520 --> 0:11:14.599 portend for dealing with that debt in China. There's a 0:11:14.640 --> 0:11:18.040 big debate David, right now inside of China about dead 0:11:18.080 --> 0:11:23.040 intensive growth as a precursor to a Japanese like h 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:26.680 L shaped economic outcome. That would be an unmitigated disaster 0:11:27.760 --> 0:11:31.160 for China. China doesn't need to go back to ten 0:11:31.679 --> 0:11:35.360 growth that enjoyed for thirty two years, but it's it's 0:11:35.360 --> 0:11:39.360 growing now, you know, around seven UH and most likely 0:11:39.400 --> 0:11:42.240 will slow further UH in the years ahead. But the 0:11:42.559 --> 0:11:49.120 downside UH is of of great concern if China repeats 0:11:49.160 --> 0:11:54.839 the Japanese like um UH debt crisis. The banks are 0:11:54.960 --> 0:11:58.160 play a hugely disproportionate role in China, and that's always 0:11:58.200 --> 0:12:02.679 the place to look for debt related issues. Loan quality 0:12:02.760 --> 0:12:06.520 has deteriorated, both in commercial banks as well as in 0:12:06.559 --> 0:12:09.200 the shadow banking sector, and so there's a lot of 0:12:09.240 --> 0:12:12.959 focus on what the government calls supply side policies. We 0:12:13.000 --> 0:12:16.520 don't know exactly what they are to deliver the Chinese 0:12:16.520 --> 0:12:20.600 economy and so far this is uh uh, you know, 0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:24.199 more talk uh than than reality and addressing this issue. 0:12:24.240 --> 0:12:25.960 If David Guraw I just made a chart, I'm gonna 0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:29.360 call it the roach chart of consumer uh consumption in 0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:32.560 America and the American consumer. If you could take it 0:12:32.600 --> 0:12:37.240 from nineteen sixty to two thousand, we're down fifty and 0:12:37.320 --> 0:12:40.640 consumption growth from the glory of what it used to 0:12:40.640 --> 0:12:43.560 be to what we've seen since August of O seven. 0:12:44.320 --> 0:12:48.640 That's it's halfed amazing statistic. Save that chart, tom I'm 0:12:48.679 --> 0:12:50.920 saving it right now. I'm gonna steal and use it 0:12:50.920 --> 0:12:53.160 on TV tomorrow. Well, you wouldn't be the first time 0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:57.280 you've done that. Thank you. Last question here, Stevid about 0:12:57.320 --> 0:13:00.040 the relationship between China US. Of course, you've written a 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:03.480 book about this. Has has China been willfully deaf to 0:13:03.480 --> 0:13:05.640 to the rhetoric on this campaign trio? What's the legacy 0:13:05.679 --> 0:13:07.760 of what we've heard over these last nineteen months going 0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:10.839 to be with regard to our relationship with China. That's 0:13:10.840 --> 0:13:13.439 an interesting question, David. I mean, my take on the 0:13:13.520 --> 0:13:17.600 relationship is one of codependency, where China depends on us 0:13:18.600 --> 0:13:22.439 as consumers to buy um goods. That they produce that 0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:26.520 played in a very important part in driving UH their 0:13:26.600 --> 0:13:29.920 economic growth miracle. But we depend on them uh to 0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:32.800 give us the cheap goods and stock the shelves of Walmart, 0:13:33.440 --> 0:13:37.000 um to make ends meet and UM. You know, I 0:13:37.040 --> 0:13:40.880 think in a codependent relationship, usually what happens is one 0:13:40.960 --> 0:13:43.800 partners or of wakes up and changes, UH. And that 0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:46.439 change is going on in China right now. They're trying 0:13:46.440 --> 0:13:49.120 to stimulate their own consumption, which will draw down their 0:13:49.120 --> 0:13:51.600 surplus saving which we have counted on to fund our 0:13:51.640 --> 0:13:55.520 economy and and buy our treasuries and and support our 0:13:55.559 --> 0:14:00.520 deficit spending. So as China changes, and if we don't, UH, 0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:02.360 then there's gonna be a lot of pressure on us 0:14:02.880 --> 0:14:05.920 to figure out a new way to grow. Stephen Roach 0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:08.760 with us with Yale University. He has scheduled in about 0:14:08.800 --> 0:14:12.920 an hour to have a most interesting interview on Bloomberg Television. 0:14:13.360 --> 0:14:16.080 Stephen Roach with his support of the US and the 0:14:16.120 --> 0:14:20.080 support of China UH in discussion we hope with Peter Navarro, 0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:23.120 who has been a great supporter of Trump economics and 0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:29.440 is exceptionally cautious on our relationship with China. David Gerin 0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:45.440 Tom Keene this election day. This is Bloomberg. We hear 0:14:45.480 --> 0:14:47.640 his insights set from time to time as Tom reads 0:14:47.640 --> 0:14:49.160 from his notes. Of course, we talked to him by 0:14:49.160 --> 0:14:51.440 phone often as well as a pleasure to have in 0:14:51.520 --> 0:14:54.120 studio with us Greg Lure of Chief Global Strategy to 0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:57.720 Horizon Investments in New York on election day. Greg, nice sea, 0:14:58.000 --> 0:15:00.120 great to be with you. Let me ask you, in 0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:02.320 light of what's happened here the back and forth over 0:15:02.360 --> 0:15:04.960 this email scandal, are there any black Swan's left in 0:15:04.960 --> 0:15:08.040 the political ponder? Was that it? Well, you hear rumors, 0:15:08.080 --> 0:15:13.240 but hopefully that's it. Yes? Does does this continue to 0:15:13.240 --> 0:15:15.640 to to go on? I'lbeit not one here that the 0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:17.960 the election ends things today, but is this something that 0:15:17.960 --> 0:15:22.040 will continue to dog Secretary Clinton going forward? Absolutely? You know, 0:15:22.240 --> 0:15:25.640 this is Washington. It's a new climate. It's a very bitter, nasty, 0:15:25.880 --> 0:15:29.160 polarized environment. I think there's gonna be hearings and more 0:15:29.200 --> 0:15:33.840 investigations and more partisanship. Her honeymoon will be very short. 0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:38.200 What is the the the Horizon Investments base case at 0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:39.960 this point? How do you see things playing out today 0:15:40.000 --> 0:15:43.120 going into tomorrow? I think a pretty narrow win in 0:15:43.200 --> 0:15:47.160 the Electoral College. I think she wins by two three points, 0:15:47.200 --> 0:15:51.480 maybe four in the popular vote, but without Florida, this 0:15:51.480 --> 0:15:54.320 could only be like she might only get two seventy 0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:57.560 five votes, you need to seventy With Florida, we can 0:15:57.600 --> 0:16:00.600 all go to bed a little earlier. Just in this 0:16:00.800 --> 0:16:04.160 off Twitter, Howard Ward, who gives us wonderful perspective on 0:16:04.280 --> 0:16:08.720 equity markets, tweets out quote, biggest crowd ever seen it 0:16:08.880 --> 0:16:11.800 polls this morning. Mr Ward is of a certain vintage, 0:16:12.080 --> 0:16:14.760 and I'm not sure where his poll is, David, do 0:16:14.800 --> 0:16:16.640 you know where Howard Ward is? I don't know what 0:16:16.760 --> 0:16:19.880 state even But nevertheless, there's the first anecdotal of a 0:16:19.880 --> 0:16:22.440 big turn. Yeah. You hear that every four years, and 0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:25.760 sometimes the final statistics don't bear it out. But the 0:16:26.040 --> 0:16:29.960 early voting is impressive, especially among Hispanics. I think that's 0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:32.760 the major reason why I think Hillary Clinton's gonna win. 0:16:32.880 --> 0:16:35.480 I've had this question three times in the last three 0:16:35.600 --> 0:16:38.320 or four days. You nail it in your morning Note 0:16:38.840 --> 0:16:44.480 the place of Senator Warren within a Clinton presidency. I'm confused. 0:16:44.720 --> 0:16:47.640 Does she move over to the administration, does she stay 0:16:47.680 --> 0:16:50.120 in the Senate? And what's it mean for Global Wall 0:16:50.160 --> 0:16:53.000 Street I think Elizabeth Warren stays in the Senate and 0:16:53.160 --> 0:16:57.040 is a provocateur. I think she'll start sniping. She and 0:16:57.160 --> 0:17:00.280 Bernie Sanders and Paul Krugman will start snipe thing at 0:17:00.320 --> 0:17:04.280 Hillary Clinton by late winter. Does she control who becomes 0:17:04.320 --> 0:17:08.040 Treasury because she controlled as Does she have a veto power? Tom? 0:17:08.080 --> 0:17:10.399 I think yes. I think she does get a veto power. 0:17:10.680 --> 0:17:12.639 She gets to say and whether we move toward a 0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:15.720 single payer health insurance plan, she has a role in 0:17:16.000 --> 0:17:18.239 our troop level in the Middle East, and on and 0:17:18.280 --> 0:17:20.800 on and on. What does it? What does it say 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:22.960 that we're talking about her as the head of the 0:17:22.960 --> 0:17:25.119 progressive branch of the Democratic Party here and not the 0:17:25.359 --> 0:17:29.240 gentleman who ran ran for the Democratic nomination? Is Bernie 0:17:29.240 --> 0:17:31.840 Sanders now in the in the backdrop and Elizabeth Warren 0:17:31.840 --> 0:17:34.680 in the front. Well, Bernie Sanders has turned seventy five, 0:17:34.760 --> 0:17:38.000 that's getting up there. And I think that Elizabeth Warren 0:17:38.040 --> 0:17:41.800 is going to inherit. His army is a very passionate army. 0:17:42.200 --> 0:17:45.879 And I think if this president elect, Hillary Clinton doesn't 0:17:45.920 --> 0:17:49.760 satisfy her, we'll start to hear speculation about a challenge 0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:54.240 from her. In has the relationship between those two between 0:17:54.320 --> 0:17:57.000 Senator Warren and Secretary Clinton warned. We've seen them both 0:17:57.000 --> 0:18:00.520 on the campaign trail. They weren't the fastest of friends. Yeah, 0:18:00.600 --> 0:18:03.600 but I do think Elizabeth Warren has been such a 0:18:03.600 --> 0:18:07.320 pit bull against Donald Trump that she certainly endeared herself, 0:18:07.600 --> 0:18:09.960 you know, just like the Obama's and the Clintons aren't 0:18:10.000 --> 0:18:13.680 that friendly. I think a campaign this arduous has bonded them. 0:18:15.040 --> 0:18:17.760 Is this the Congress that will do something in these 0:18:17.800 --> 0:18:19.520 next few months, and if so, what's it going to be. 0:18:19.600 --> 0:18:21.359 There's been a lot of talk about the prospects for 0:18:21.560 --> 0:18:24.640 tax reform, prospects of a vote here on on the TPP. 0:18:24.760 --> 0:18:27.760 Do you anticipate anything happening here in the lame duck 0:18:27.840 --> 0:18:29.560 session and then in the first few months of the 0:18:29.600 --> 0:18:32.600 next president's tenure. Lame duck the wild card by far, 0:18:32.640 --> 0:18:35.800 as Merrick Garland, the Supreme Court nomination. They'll keep the 0:18:35.800 --> 0:18:38.879 government open. Whether that will happen early next year. The 0:18:38.960 --> 0:18:42.240 big story by far is the debts sailing, and if 0:18:42.720 --> 0:18:46.200 Paul Ryan doesn't handle that adroitly, there'll be a rebellion 0:18:46.240 --> 0:18:49.160 among his troops. And Paul Ryan is on thin ice. 0:18:49.440 --> 0:18:51.679 Back to the horse race, which folds in all the 0:18:51.680 --> 0:18:54.439 campaigning we've seen, and I don't believe this show has 0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:57.919 talked about it, and I've been remissing that Senator Ruby 0:18:58.000 --> 0:19:01.760 O I believe was a layup. Yeah, that's not true, right, 0:19:02.119 --> 0:19:05.000 I think we got I think he'll win. But let's 0:19:05.000 --> 0:19:07.679 say Hillary Clinton wins Florida by two points. You know 0:19:07.720 --> 0:19:10.520 the Rubio margin is going to be really narrow. I 0:19:10.520 --> 0:19:13.040 I you're right, Tom, I thought a month ago Rubio 0:19:13.040 --> 0:19:15.520 would win by five sex points. Now I'm not quite assure. 0:19:15.560 --> 0:19:17.840 Does he pick up the Latino vote, the same vote 0:19:17.840 --> 0:19:20.359 that very quickly, you're the same vote that Secretary Clinton? 0:19:20.359 --> 0:19:23.560 Gets some of it and he becomes a big player. 0:19:23.600 --> 0:19:25.680 He's got six more years to get some gravity. Toss 0:19:26.080 --> 0:19:27.879 his election day, and we are really honored to have 0:19:27.960 --> 0:19:31.320 in our studio someone who lives the country, lives on airplanes, 0:19:31.359 --> 0:19:35.119 Greg of New Hampshire. On this election day, Greg, we 0:19:35.200 --> 0:19:38.720 try on surveillance to look forward, and by definition that 0:19:38.840 --> 0:19:41.840 means third parties. Anybody who's a student history knows there's 0:19:42.320 --> 0:19:45.639 Ross Perrow and John Anderson and others, But what there 0:19:45.720 --> 0:19:50.520 really is is nineteen twelve. The establishment didn't like that upstart. 0:19:51.080 --> 0:19:56.040 What was his name Risveldi yet bragging about his Philippine exhibition. Yeah, 0:19:57.040 --> 0:19:59.480 we win for another one to be I mean we 0:19:59.560 --> 0:20:01.639 got would Row Wilson out of that race. You had 0:20:01.640 --> 0:20:05.600 two Republicans running against one Democrat, so fearless forecast home. 0:20:05.960 --> 0:20:10.320 I think the Republican Party begins a civil war within weeks, 0:20:10.359 --> 0:20:14.720 maybe within days of this election, bitter bitter opposition to 0:20:14.840 --> 0:20:17.760 Paul Ryan by the Trump people who think Ryan is 0:20:17.800 --> 0:20:20.760 a trader. And I think you could see the Republican 0:20:21.080 --> 0:20:24.800 Party split into two, the Chamber of Commerce more moderate 0:20:25.000 --> 0:20:30.720 Republicans against the Sean Hannity rush Limbaugh Tea Party Republicans. 0:20:30.800 --> 0:20:35.080 If that happens, in that could be the pathway for 0:20:35.119 --> 0:20:38.359 a Democrat to win. Who controls three ten Fruit Street 0:20:38.440 --> 0:20:42.040 Southeast in d C. Now side of the Republican National Committee? 0:20:42.040 --> 0:20:48.560 Who has the case where? Who has the keys? In 0:20:48.560 --> 0:20:50.280 other words, if there is a third party, which which 0:20:50.280 --> 0:20:53.760 Branch is creating, it is the the old guard establishment 0:20:53.760 --> 0:20:56.000 Republican Party leaving where they gonna stay and we're gonna 0:20:56.000 --> 0:20:58.280 see an offshoot. Well I think they're they want to 0:20:58.280 --> 0:21:01.679 stay that We're talking about the chain or commerce, the uh, 0:21:02.040 --> 0:21:06.560 the pro free trade Republicans Mitch McConnell has been very crafty. 0:21:06.640 --> 0:21:11.000 He has endorsed Trump, but not too warmly, whereas again 0:21:11.400 --> 0:21:14.080 Ryan is viewed as a trader. But the core of 0:21:14.119 --> 0:21:17.879 that party I think is the is the more centrist party. 0:21:17.920 --> 0:21:21.240 I think the outcast, the outsiders, the insurgents who were 0:21:21.320 --> 0:21:24.919 so strong at the base around the country, those folks, 0:21:24.960 --> 0:21:27.359 the Sean Hannity wing. I think they're gonna have to 0:21:27.400 --> 0:21:29.960 form their own party, and they'll have a TV network, 0:21:30.040 --> 0:21:34.359 maybe headed by Donald Trump, to advance their narrative. An 0:21:34.400 --> 0:21:36.560 amazing line in your most recent note here, we think 0:21:36.560 --> 0:21:39.679 a Cask Rubio ticket would have won tonight's election, today's 0:21:39.720 --> 0:21:43.920 election by six to eight point margin. Sure, well, you 0:21:44.160 --> 0:21:46.760 look at Ohio eighteen votes, You look at Florida twenty 0:21:46.840 --> 0:21:49.320 nine votes, you look at it. You know so many 0:21:49.400 --> 0:21:52.760 people said, you know, we could accept Kasich, a lot 0:21:52.800 --> 0:21:56.560 of moderates. Would I think this huge defection of Hispanic 0:21:56.640 --> 0:22:00.520 votes that's gonna bury Trump tonight. Obvious Lee wouldn't have 0:22:00.520 --> 0:22:03.120 occurred had Rubio been on the ticket. So I think 0:22:03.160 --> 0:22:05.560 it would have been a vastly different race had have 0:22:05.600 --> 0:22:10.560 been a case of Rubio ticket. Absolutely, what's the consequence 0:22:10.600 --> 0:22:12.919 of the uncertainty that could come out of tonight if 0:22:12.920 --> 0:22:15.160 we don't get a concession speech tonight from from either 0:22:15.240 --> 0:22:17.720 Canada takes us back to two thousand when it dragged 0:22:17.720 --> 0:22:20.160 on and on and on. What does that mean for 0:22:20.160 --> 0:22:22.960 for investors that waiting game and everybody talks about what's 0:22:23.000 --> 0:22:25.399 the implication of she wins? What about if he wins? 0:22:25.600 --> 0:22:28.640 What if? What if we do not have a definitive 0:22:28.720 --> 0:22:32.960 result tonight, that we have hanging chads and recounts for days, 0:22:33.000 --> 0:22:36.320 if not weeks, without anybody being sure who actually won, 0:22:36.400 --> 0:22:38.880 that would be a really bad story. I mean, this 0:22:38.920 --> 0:22:41.560 is an important point, and I guess we're asking for 0:22:41.640 --> 0:22:45.720 your treatment. With decades of perspective on the word rigged, 0:22:46.400 --> 0:22:51.600 What does rigged mean? I think it's overhyped, like so 0:22:51.680 --> 0:22:54.199 much of what Trump says. Yeah, are there people who 0:22:54.240 --> 0:22:56.439 were dead to vote? Of course, are there you know, 0:22:56.480 --> 0:23:01.640 irregularities in Philadelphia, of course, But it rigged. I think 0:23:01.680 --> 0:23:05.520 that's that's a real stretch. Are there biases against Trump? Yes, 0:23:06.000 --> 0:23:10.000 but I think rigged is an explosive word. He's got 0:23:10.000 --> 0:23:12.960 to be careful playing with matches as Secretary Clinton. Of course, 0:23:12.960 --> 0:23:15.560 the pageantry last night in Philadelphia, it was a beautiful 0:23:15.720 --> 0:23:18.080 all the people in front of independence, all in the 0:23:18.119 --> 0:23:21.359 first ladies speaking in the president. When you when you 0:23:21.480 --> 0:23:25.200 look at all this greg it's a nation that has 0:23:25.240 --> 0:23:29.800 to move on the traditional path. Is the president moves 0:23:29.880 --> 0:23:34.080 to the center? Do you predict that for Secretary Clinton? 0:23:34.760 --> 0:23:36.840 Or is it just not going to happen this time. 0:23:37.080 --> 0:23:39.280