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Speaker 1: Who you put your trust in matters. Investors have put

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Speaker 1: their trust in independent registered investment advisors to the tune

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Speaker 1: of four trillion dollars. Why learn more and find your

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Speaker 1: independent advisor dot com. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you

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Speaker 1: insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and

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Speaker 1: of course, on the Bloomberg On Bloomberg Surveillance Today. Greg

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Speaker 1: Valier from Horizon Investments, David Harrow of Harris Associates, Megan

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Speaker 1: Green for Manual Life, and Stephen Roach, formerly Morgan Stanley's

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Speaker 1: Chief Economists, former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, now Senior

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Speaker 1: Lecturer at the Jackson Institute of Global Affairs at Yale

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Speaker 1: University and Senior lecturer at the School of Management. And Stephen,

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Speaker 1: great to have you with us, Great to be here.

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Speaker 1: Thank you. I wonder how you were going to be

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Speaker 1: Uh want has Stephen Roach, renowned economist, is going to

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Speaker 1: be watching the results come in? And I don't mean

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Speaker 1: are you gonna get a spot on a couch? And

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Speaker 1: the Schwartzman Center, Yale not to watch the votes rolling,

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Speaker 1: But what are you gonna be looking for? How are

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Speaker 1: you going to process what's happening here tonight and indeed

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Speaker 1: maybe tomorrow. You know, I I, as I said on

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Speaker 1: TV a few minutes ago, I have a sneaking suspicion

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Speaker 1: this is not going to be close. That the poll

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Speaker 1: showed a little bit of momentum post uh FBI twist

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Speaker 1: and and and that that is now out of the

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Speaker 1: the game. And I think that the American public, um,

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Speaker 1: I think we have to give them credit for having

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Speaker 1: more character than um uh Donald Trump does. And I

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Speaker 1: think there's gonna be a strong reaction against uh everything

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Speaker 1: that he stands for. And I think that, you know,

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Speaker 1: the decency of the American people will ultimately prevail in

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Speaker 1: choosing the next president. We've talked a lot about d

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Speaker 1: we can continue to talk about here what effect the

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Speaker 1: election could have on the economy going forward. But looking

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Speaker 1: back on the campaign, that's incredibly long, nineteen month campaign,

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Speaker 1: what measurably, what effects measurably have that had has that

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Speaker 1: had on the on the economy. I don't think it's

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Speaker 1: had much of anything. I think the economy is is

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Speaker 1: really been operating um with the very little steam. Growth

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Speaker 1: has faltered a lot in the last UM year from

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Speaker 1: an already anemic trajectory that had been on since the crisis.

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Speaker 1: I think the economy is struggling against a lot of

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Speaker 1: tough headwinds. Some of the headwinds are global, but most

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Speaker 1: of them are of our own making. The Federal Reserve

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Speaker 1: is done everything and it's power to jump start the

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Speaker 1: economy with zero interest rates and massive balance sheet expansion.

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Speaker 1: That hasn't worked. Uh. We haven't gotten the fiscal kick

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Speaker 1: that many believe would make a difference. I'm a little

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Speaker 1: suspicious of that as well as if we can manufacture

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Speaker 1: a recovery and aggregate consumer demand by infrastructure spending, as

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Speaker 1: the secular stagnation crowd would want you to believe. Um.

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Speaker 1: I think we need a deep rethink of of the

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Speaker 1: dynamics or lack there of the American economy. And I

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Speaker 1: think that's what um uh President Clinton is going to

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Speaker 1: have to face in early on in her administration. This

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Speaker 1: hasn't been a campaign of real serious thinking that There's

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Speaker 1: been a lot of rhetoric and other possy is she's

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Speaker 1: a are you at all optimistic that we will get

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Speaker 1: that that period of introspection, that that will have a

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Speaker 1: deep think about where the economy. I think that's a

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Speaker 1: terrific question. And I think, um, uh, the one thing

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Speaker 1: I do know about um Hillary Clinton as a you know,

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Speaker 1: as a senator, actually as a first lady, as a

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Speaker 1: Secretary of State, that she has got a spectacular her mind, uh,

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Speaker 1: and she's had to put a lot of that intellectual

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Speaker 1: firepower on old deal with very aggressive and a nasty campaign.

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Speaker 1: And I hope she can go back to her strengths

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Speaker 1: as somebody who really gets the the concepts and the

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Speaker 1: issues uh that are at the heart of the challenge

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Speaker 1: that she will face as president, not just in the

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Speaker 1: economic arena, but in the foreign policy arena and in

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Speaker 1: the social arena as well. And she's got, uh, I think,

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Speaker 1: great skill sets to to grapple with all of those

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Speaker 1: and then put them together. And let's hope that she

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Speaker 1: can put together the team that can really address these challenges.

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Speaker 1: Steven Roae Triville University with us today of course his

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Speaker 1: book classic book, The Next Asia, as we talked to

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Speaker 1: him about the Next America. Or you can also follow

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Speaker 1: David Gura, who will be on radio for hours and

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Speaker 1: then I believe John Tucker, they've given him away on

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Speaker 1: television during the daylight hours. Will be Oh, parent teacher conference,

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Speaker 1: let's go right, How do our surveillance expert on parent

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Speaker 1: teacher conferences? He has nine daughters? Stephen, Steve, Sorry, how

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Speaker 1: do you approach a parent teacher conference? Help younger? Coffee?

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Speaker 1: Lots of coffee and um deference. Right, yeah, listen, be

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Speaker 1: a be a good listener, and but draw the line,

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Speaker 1: you know, if it goes a little too far, stand

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Speaker 1: up for your kid. Understood. I love it. Uh. Let

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Speaker 1: me ask you about I'm glad you brought up the

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Speaker 1: specter of fiscal stimulus. Both these candidates have talked about

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Speaker 1: spending billions on infrastructure here if if they're elected, what

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Speaker 1: what are the what are the what could be the

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Speaker 1: near term effects of that? What could be the long

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Speaker 1: term effects of something like that? If indeed there are

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Speaker 1: potential for long term effects. Look, America needs to repair

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Speaker 1: its infrastructure. I mean, you know, on the car right

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Speaker 1: in today from um Connecticut into Manhattan, you know, I

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Speaker 1: think I had um whiplash multiple times from hitting innumerable

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Speaker 1: potholes and us is you know, not even the pothole season,

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Speaker 1: Yet the roads in the city, the airports in this

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Speaker 1: city are pathetic. We all know we need infrastructure, but

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Speaker 1: is this going to fix what ails the American economy?

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Speaker 1: We need to look at that very carefully. Infrastructure can

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Speaker 1: boost aggregate demands through public sector spending for a temporary

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Speaker 1: period of time, but unless it catches on to drive

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Speaker 1: consumers and businesses to really raise their sights on growth,

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Speaker 1: aspirations and expectations, Uh, then it's again. It's it's sort

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Speaker 1: of like pushing on a string, and we've been pushing

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Speaker 1: on lots of strings in the last ten years. Let's

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Speaker 1: take you back to Morgan Stanley. You and Dick burn

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Speaker 1: are sitting around at a table twenty years ago, and

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Speaker 1: somebody says, here's the aggregate economy two point whatever percent,

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Speaker 1: But we really ought to take out inventories and take

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Speaker 1: out exports. That parlor games going on right now. Do

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Speaker 1: you disaggregate economic growth to make it a domestic statistic

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Speaker 1: or do you take it all in and say the

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Speaker 1: last quarter was actually pretty good? Look, Tom, I mean

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Speaker 1: g d P is a broad construct that consists of

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Speaker 1: lots of different pieces. Um I In in the last

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Speaker 1: ten years um more so than my good friend Dick

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Speaker 1: has focused on the American consumer, because I think that

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Speaker 1: has really been uh uh the Achilles heel of the

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Speaker 1: U s economy, as consumers binged out on spending by

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Speaker 1: borrowing against a property bubble and using a credit bubble

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Speaker 1: to do it. When the bubbles burst, the consumer was

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Speaker 1: left holding the bag and they're still trying to climb out.

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Speaker 1: Pulls her open to New Hampshire. David blanche Flower tweeting out,

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Speaker 1: let me quote exactly the esteemed professor from Dartmouth College.

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Speaker 1: I am in the great advocate of KWEI. I am

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Speaker 1: an immigrant, and I am voting proudly for at Hillary Clinton.

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Speaker 1: That from Professor blanch Flower, Uh, there's not alone in Hanover,

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Speaker 1: Steve Roach, where's our immigration right now? The answer is

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Speaker 1: there's less immigration, and that folds directly into less nominal GDP,

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Speaker 1: doesn't it? Well? I think you know, the one distinguishing

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Speaker 1: feature about the US economy compared to other developed economies

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Speaker 1: is that we can continue to enjoy population growth both

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Speaker 1: through up a positive uh net birth rate as well

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Speaker 1: as their positive immigration tom and and although the rate

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Speaker 1: of increases somewhat slower than it has been. Uh. We

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Speaker 1: we continue to um uh, as I said, boost our workforce,

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Speaker 1: and um we need to do that to overcome very

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Speaker 1: tough productivity headwinds. David gerin time Keene thrilled you with

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Speaker 1: us nationwide this election day. Good morning on Sirious an

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Speaker 1: XM Channel one nineteen. Many of you, I'm sure going

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Speaker 1: to the polls and waking up across Central Mountain and

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Speaker 1: Pacific time as well. We begin our coverage this morning

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Speaker 1: with Stephen Roach of Yale University. Stephen, I want to

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Speaker 1: color the consumer here. You have provided immense leadership in

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Speaker 1: the shortfall of our consumption. Is it just we build

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Speaker 1: up so much debt coming out of World War Two,

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Speaker 1: moving on and then even adding on more debt from there. Well, Tom,

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Speaker 1: there's a secular uptrend in in debt to income for

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Speaker 1: American households. But what happened is that, um, you know,

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Speaker 1: in the late nineties in early two thousands, we we

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Speaker 1: talked it up in a in a big way, and

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Speaker 1: so in debt to income, which had been on an

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Speaker 1: upward trend, uh, sword to about um I think a

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Speaker 1: hundred thirty of disposable personal income versus an average of

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Speaker 1: about seventy in the final three decades of the twentieth century,

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Speaker 1: and that debt was levered against a massive, unprecedented property

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Speaker 1: bubble UH and aiden and inbedded by your friend the Maestro,

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Speaker 1: who believed that um uh rising debt to income was

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Speaker 1: not a threat because America was not experiencing a nationwide

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Speaker 1: housing bubble. When both bubbles burst, property and credit, UM,

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Speaker 1: the consumers were in the biggest hole they'd been in,

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Speaker 1: uh since the nineteen thirties. And digging out of that

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Speaker 1: hole is what a balance sheet recession is all about.

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Speaker 1: And we've made progress. But I'd say, you know, in

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Speaker 1: a nine inning baseball game, which you're familiar with, Tom

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Speaker 1: as a Red Sox fan, sadly, UM, we're probably in,

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Speaker 1: you know, the fifth of the sixth inning, and uh.

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Speaker 1: That means there's still a lot to be played, and

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Speaker 1: we may even have to go into extra innings. Do

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Speaker 1: you see David the hot stove League stove. I mean

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Speaker 1: they have the coals upon the fire and Rouch has

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Speaker 1: already killing me. I'm still in the therapy. May I

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Speaker 1: use that as a segue? You would ask you a

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Speaker 1: question about China and the degree to which the administration

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Speaker 1: there is worried about, aware of and worried about the

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Speaker 1: debt picture. There. We saw a rejiggering of the leadership,

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Speaker 1: a new a new finance minister there. What does that

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Speaker 1: portend for dealing with that debt in China. There's a

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Speaker 1: big debate David, right now inside of China about dead

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Speaker 1: intensive growth as a precursor to a Japanese like h

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Speaker 1: L shaped economic outcome. That would be an unmitigated disaster

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Speaker 1: for China. China doesn't need to go back to ten

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Speaker 1: growth that enjoyed for thirty two years, but it's it's

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Speaker 1: growing now, you know, around seven UH and most likely

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Speaker 1: will slow further UH in the years ahead. But the

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Speaker 1: downside UH is of of great concern if China repeats

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Speaker 1: the Japanese like um UH debt crisis. The banks are

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Speaker 1: play a hugely disproportionate role in China, and that's always

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Speaker 1: the place to look for debt related issues. Loan quality

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Speaker 1: has deteriorated, both in commercial banks as well as in

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Speaker 1: the shadow banking sector, and so there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: focus on what the government calls supply side policies. We

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Speaker 1: don't know exactly what they are to deliver the Chinese

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Speaker 1: economy and so far this is uh uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: more talk uh than than reality and addressing this issue.

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Speaker 1: If David Guraw I just made a chart, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: call it the roach chart of consumer uh consumption in

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Speaker 1: America and the American consumer. If you could take it

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Speaker 1: from nineteen sixty to two thousand, we're down fifty and

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Speaker 1: consumption growth from the glory of what it used to

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Speaker 1: be to what we've seen since August of O seven.

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Speaker 1: That's it's halfed amazing statistic. Save that chart, tom I'm

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Speaker 1: saving it right now. I'm gonna steal and use it

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Speaker 1: on TV tomorrow. Well, you wouldn't be the first time

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Speaker 1: you've done that. Thank you. Last question here, Stevid about

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Speaker 1: the relationship between China US. Of course, you've written a

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Speaker 1: book about this. Has has China been willfully deaf to

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Speaker 1: to the rhetoric on this campaign trio? What's the legacy

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Speaker 1: of what we've heard over these last nineteen months going

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Speaker 1: to be with regard to our relationship with China. That's

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Speaker 1: an interesting question, David. I mean, my take on the

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Speaker 1: relationship is one of codependency, where China depends on us

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Speaker 1: as consumers to buy um goods. That they produce that

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Speaker 1: played in a very important part in driving UH their

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Speaker 1: economic growth miracle. But we depend on them uh to

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Speaker 1: give us the cheap goods and stock the shelves of Walmart,

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Speaker 1: um to make ends meet and UM. You know, I

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Speaker 1: think in a codependent relationship, usually what happens is one

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Speaker 1: partners or of wakes up and changes, UH. And that

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Speaker 1: change is going on in China right now. They're trying

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Speaker 1: to stimulate their own consumption, which will draw down their

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Speaker 1: surplus saving which we have counted on to fund our

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Speaker 1: economy and and buy our treasuries and and support our

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Speaker 1: deficit spending. So as China changes, and if we don't, UH,

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Speaker 1: then there's gonna be a lot of pressure on us

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Speaker 1: to figure out a new way to grow. Stephen Roach

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Speaker 1: with us with Yale University. He has scheduled in about

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Speaker 1: an hour to have a most interesting interview on Bloomberg Television.

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Speaker 1: Stephen Roach with his support of the US and the

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Speaker 1: support of China UH in discussion we hope with Peter Navarro,

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Speaker 1: who has been a great supporter of Trump economics and

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Speaker 1: is exceptionally cautious on our relationship with China. David Gerin

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Speaker 1: Tom Keene this election day. This is Bloomberg. We hear

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Speaker 1: his insights set from time to time as Tom reads

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Speaker 1: from his notes. Of course, we talked to him by

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Speaker 1: phone often as well as a pleasure to have in

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Speaker 1: studio with us Greg Lure of Chief Global Strategy to

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Speaker 1: Horizon Investments in New York on election day. Greg, nice sea,

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Speaker 1: great to be with you. Let me ask you, in

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Speaker 1: light of what's happened here the back and forth over

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Speaker 1: this email scandal, are there any black Swan's left in

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Speaker 1: the political ponder? Was that it? Well, you hear rumors,

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Speaker 1: but hopefully that's it. Yes? Does does this continue to

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Speaker 1: to to go on? I'lbeit not one here that the

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Speaker 1: the election ends things today, but is this something that

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Speaker 1: will continue to dog Secretary Clinton going forward? Absolutely? You know,

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Speaker 1: this is Washington. It's a new climate. It's a very bitter, nasty,

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Speaker 1: polarized environment. I think there's gonna be hearings and more

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Speaker 1: investigations and more partisanship. Her honeymoon will be very short.

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Speaker 1: What is the the the Horizon Investments base case at

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Speaker 1: this point? How do you see things playing out today

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Speaker 1: going into tomorrow? I think a pretty narrow win in

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Speaker 1: the Electoral College. I think she wins by two three points,

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Speaker 1: maybe four in the popular vote, but without Florida, this

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Speaker 1: could only be like she might only get two seventy

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Speaker 1: five votes, you need to seventy With Florida, we can

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Speaker 1: all go to bed a little earlier. Just in this

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Speaker 1: off Twitter, Howard Ward, who gives us wonderful perspective on

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Speaker 1: equity markets, tweets out quote, biggest crowd ever seen it

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Speaker 1: polls this morning. Mr Ward is of a certain vintage,

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Speaker 1: and I'm not sure where his poll is, David, do

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Speaker 1: you know where Howard Ward is? I don't know what

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Speaker 1: state even But nevertheless, there's the first anecdotal of a

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Speaker 1: big turn. Yeah. You hear that every four years, and

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Speaker 1: sometimes the final statistics don't bear it out. But the

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Speaker 1: early voting is impressive, especially among Hispanics. I think that's

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Speaker 1: the major reason why I think Hillary Clinton's gonna win.

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Speaker 1: I've had this question three times in the last three

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Speaker 1: or four days. You nail it in your morning Note

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Speaker 1: the place of Senator Warren within a Clinton presidency. I'm confused.

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Speaker 1: Does she move over to the administration, does she stay

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Speaker 1: in the Senate? And what's it mean for Global Wall

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Speaker 1: Street I think Elizabeth Warren stays in the Senate and

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Speaker 1: is a provocateur. I think she'll start sniping. She and

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Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders and Paul Krugman will start snipe thing at

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Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton by late winter. Does she control who becomes

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Speaker 1: Treasury because she controlled as Does she have a veto power? Tom?

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Speaker 1: I think yes. I think she does get a veto power.

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Speaker 1: She gets to say and whether we move toward a

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Speaker 1: single payer health insurance plan, she has a role in

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Speaker 1: our troop level in the Middle East, and on and

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Speaker 1: on and on. What does it? What does it say

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Speaker 1: that we're talking about her as the head of the

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Speaker 1: progressive branch of the Democratic Party here and not the

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Speaker 1: gentleman who ran ran for the Democratic nomination? Is Bernie

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Speaker 1: Sanders now in the in the backdrop and Elizabeth Warren

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Speaker 1: in the front. Well, Bernie Sanders has turned seventy five,

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Speaker 1: that's getting up there. And I think that Elizabeth Warren

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Speaker 1: is going to inherit. His army is a very passionate army.

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Speaker 1: And I think if this president elect, Hillary Clinton doesn't

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Speaker 1: satisfy her, we'll start to hear speculation about a challenge

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Speaker 1: from her. In has the relationship between those two between

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Speaker 1: Senator Warren and Secretary Clinton warned. We've seen them both

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Speaker 1: on the campaign trail. They weren't the fastest of friends. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: but I do think Elizabeth Warren has been such a

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Speaker 1: pit bull against Donald Trump that she certainly endeared herself,

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Speaker 1: you know, just like the Obama's and the Clintons aren't

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Speaker 1: that friendly. I think a campaign this arduous has bonded them.

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Speaker 1: Is this the Congress that will do something in these

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Speaker 1: next few months, and if so, what's it going to be.

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Speaker 1: There's been a lot of talk about the prospects for

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Speaker 1: tax reform, prospects of a vote here on on the TPP.

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Speaker 1: Do you anticipate anything happening here in the lame duck

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Speaker 1: session and then in the first few months of the

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Speaker 1: next president's tenure. Lame duck the wild card by far,

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Speaker 1: as Merrick Garland, the Supreme Court nomination. They'll keep the

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Speaker 1: government open. Whether that will happen early next year. The

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Speaker 1: big story by far is the debts sailing, and if

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Speaker 1: Paul Ryan doesn't handle that adroitly, there'll be a rebellion

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Speaker 1: among his troops. And Paul Ryan is on thin ice.

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Speaker 1: Back to the horse race, which folds in all the

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Speaker 1: campaigning we've seen, and I don't believe this show has

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Speaker 1: talked about it, and I've been remissing that Senator Ruby

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Speaker 1: O I believe was a layup. Yeah, that's not true, right,

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Speaker 1: I think we got I think he'll win. But let's

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Speaker 1: say Hillary Clinton wins Florida by two points. You know

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Speaker 1: the Rubio margin is going to be really narrow. I

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Speaker 1: I you're right, Tom, I thought a month ago Rubio

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Speaker 1: would win by five sex points. Now I'm not quite assure.

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Speaker 1: Does he pick up the Latino vote, the same vote

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Speaker 1: that very quickly, you're the same vote that Secretary Clinton?

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Speaker 1: Gets some of it and he becomes a big player.

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Speaker 1: He's got six more years to get some gravity. Toss

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Speaker 1: his election day, and we are really honored to have

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Speaker 1: in our studio someone who lives the country, lives on airplanes,

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Speaker 1: Greg of New Hampshire. On this election day, Greg, we

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Speaker 1: try on surveillance to look forward, and by definition that

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Speaker 1: means third parties. Anybody who's a student history knows there's

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Speaker 1: Ross Perrow and John Anderson and others, But what there

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Speaker 1: really is is nineteen twelve. The establishment didn't like that upstart.

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Speaker 1: What was his name Risveldi yet bragging about his Philippine exhibition. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: we win for another one to be I mean we

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Speaker 1: got would Row Wilson out of that race. You had

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Speaker 1: two Republicans running against one Democrat, so fearless forecast home.

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Speaker 1: I think the Republican Party begins a civil war within weeks,

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Speaker 1: maybe within days of this election, bitter bitter opposition to

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Speaker 1: Paul Ryan by the Trump people who think Ryan is

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Speaker 1: a trader. And I think you could see the Republican

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Speaker 1: Party split into two, the Chamber of Commerce more moderate

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Speaker 1: Republicans against the Sean Hannity rush Limbaugh Tea Party Republicans.

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Speaker 1: If that happens, in that could be the pathway for

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Speaker 1: a Democrat to win. Who controls three ten Fruit Street

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Speaker 1: Southeast in d C. Now side of the Republican National Committee?

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Speaker 1: Who has the case where? Who has the keys? In

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Speaker 1: other words, if there is a third party, which which

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Speaker 1: Branch is creating, it is the the old guard establishment

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Speaker 1: Republican Party leaving where they gonna stay and we're gonna

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Speaker 1: see an offshoot. Well I think they're they want to

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Speaker 1: stay that We're talking about the chain or commerce, the uh,

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Speaker 1: the pro free trade Republicans Mitch McConnell has been very crafty.

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Speaker 1: He has endorsed Trump, but not too warmly, whereas again

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Speaker 1: Ryan is viewed as a trader. But the core of

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Speaker 1: that party I think is the is the more centrist party.

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Speaker 1: I think the outcast, the outsiders, the insurgents who were

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Speaker 1: so strong at the base around the country, those folks,

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Speaker 1: the Sean Hannity wing. I think they're gonna have to

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Speaker 1: form their own party, and they'll have a TV network,

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Speaker 1: maybe headed by Donald Trump, to advance their narrative. An

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Speaker 1: amazing line in your most recent note here, we think

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Speaker 1: a Cask Rubio ticket would have won tonight's election, today's

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Speaker 1: election by six to eight point margin. Sure, well, you

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Speaker 1: look at Ohio eighteen votes, You look at Florida twenty

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Speaker 1: nine votes, you look at it. You know so many

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Speaker 1: people said, you know, we could accept Kasich, a lot

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Speaker 1: of moderates. Would I think this huge defection of Hispanic

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Speaker 1: votes that's gonna bury Trump tonight. Obvious Lee wouldn't have

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Speaker 1: occurred had Rubio been on the ticket. So I think

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Speaker 1: it would have been a vastly different race had have

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Speaker 1: been a case of Rubio ticket. Absolutely, what's the consequence

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Speaker 1: of the uncertainty that could come out of tonight if

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Speaker 1: we don't get a concession speech tonight from from either

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Speaker 1: Canada takes us back to two thousand when it dragged

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Speaker 1: on and on and on. What does that mean for

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Speaker 1: for investors that waiting game and everybody talks about what's

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Speaker 1: the implication of she wins? What about if he wins?

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Speaker 1: What if? What if we do not have a definitive

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Speaker 1: result tonight, that we have hanging chads and recounts for days,

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Speaker 1: if not weeks, without anybody being sure who actually won,

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Speaker 1: that would be a really bad story. I mean, this

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Speaker 1: is an important point, and I guess we're asking for

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Speaker 1: your treatment. With decades of perspective on the word rigged,

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Speaker 1: What does rigged mean? I think it's overhyped, like so

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Speaker 1: much of what Trump says. Yeah, are there people who

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Speaker 1: were dead to vote? Of course, are there you know,

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Speaker 1: irregularities in Philadelphia, of course, But it rigged. I think

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Speaker 1: that's that's a real stretch. Are there biases against Trump? Yes,

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Speaker 1: but I think rigged is an explosive word. He's got

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Speaker 1: to be careful playing with matches as Secretary Clinton. Of course,

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Speaker 1: the pageantry last night in Philadelphia, it was a beautiful

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Speaker 1: all the people in front of independence, all in the

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Speaker 1: first ladies speaking in the president. When you when you

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Speaker 1: look at all this greg it's a nation that has

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Speaker 1: to move on the traditional path. Is the president moves

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Speaker 1: to the center? Do you predict that for Secretary Clinton?

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Speaker 1: Or is it just not going to happen this time.

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Speaker 1: I think she'd like to. I think her instinct is

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Speaker 1: to move to the center, but she has to deal

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Speaker 1: with Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and a lot of

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Speaker 1: Ronald Reagan had to deal with whoever in the South.

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Speaker 1: But I think essentially she's a pragmatist. That's how she

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Speaker 1: was as a senator, That's how Bill governed, and I

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Speaker 1: think she will try to govern as a pragmatist. But

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Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren will start sniping by spring, guarantee. Steven Roach

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Speaker 1: and I were joking about the lack of discussion about

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Speaker 1: issues in this campaign, lack of discussion about politics. But

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Speaker 1: but seriously, here are we ever going to get a

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Speaker 1: campaign which issues are at the center? Well, this, sir,

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Speaker 1: hasn't been one. I mean, you look at rural America,

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Speaker 1: you ask people what their biggest concern is heroin, You

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Speaker 1: look at people in the markets who look at ten

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Speaker 1: years down the road, we can't necessarily pay for all

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Speaker 1: the benefits we promise. I want to rip up the scripture.

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Speaker 1: I remember the New Hampshire primary and we were thrilled

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Speaker 1: to have you on then from your New Hampshire and

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Speaker 1: it was amazing to see establishment the many candidates running,

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Speaker 1: and all anybody in the audience wanted to talk about

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Speaker 1: was drug addiction in New Hampshire. I mean, I mean

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Speaker 1: that was maybe one of those initial points where we

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Speaker 1: knew this time was different. You look at the heroin

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Speaker 1: overdoses in Manchester, New Hampshire. It's like Baltimore and New

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Speaker 1: York Chicago, maybe worse. So I do think there are

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Speaker 1: a lot of really important issues, going back to David's

428
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:59,879
Speaker 1: question that have been ignored, maybe because the prescriptions are

429
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:03,920
Speaker 1: too better. Everyone's checking to talk about, you know, difficult

430
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 1: solutions to problems. No one wants to hear this, but

431
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:10,679
Speaker 1: it's really been an abdication by the politicians. It's a

432
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:14,120
Speaker 1: good question. How does the agenda change when someone is elected.

433
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 1: Do you see a President Clinton or President Trump remembering

434
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 1: what that conversation was like in New Hampshire, maybe elevating

435
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 1: that on on the agenda. Does that tend to happen

436
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 1: in the past. It could, But it's a matter of

437
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 1: what you can get done, and I just don't see

438
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 1: a lot that she's going to get done. I think

439
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 1: I see a Congress that will try to block her.

440
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 1: She'll do a lot with regulations, that's for sure. She'll

441
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 1: have a big role geo politically, that's for sure. Well,

442
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:38,680
Speaker 1: I guess one inside baseball and we'll let you go.

443
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:40,919
Speaker 1: You've ben more than generous with your time this morning.

444
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 1: I think a week ago there was talk of Vice

445
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 1: President Biden looking awfully good as a Secretary of State?

446
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:51,359
Speaker 1: Can he do it early? Too fragile? I don't see it.

447
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 1: I think he's too prone to gaffs. I think he's

448
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:57,439
Speaker 1: he doesn't stick to the script enough. Um, he's well liked.

449
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 1: But I think Joe Biden is secretary is date. That's

450
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:04,160
Speaker 1: just why that just doesn't add up for me. Who

451
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:08,520
Speaker 1: would be one, uh, maybe someone who has who has

452
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 1: left Congress fairly recently. No one immediately comes to mind.

453
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 1: I was thinking at John Tucker, Yeah, I'd be pressing

454
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 1: the button, like within minutes. Greg one more thought as

455
00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 1: we go to tonight helped David gur out here with

456
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:30,160
Speaker 1: his coverage after seven pm tonight. What will David Girl

457
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 1: need to focus on? Say at nine pm? Two stories

458
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 1: dwarf everything else. Number One, the ground game, the the

459
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,919
Speaker 1: Clinton ground game is the greatest ground game in the

460
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 1: history of American politics. It's worth a point or two

461
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 1: in some states. Second point we don't talk about this

462
00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:52,120
Speaker 1: enough is how dramatically this country has changed demographically. We're biracial,

463
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:57,679
Speaker 1: we're diverse, we're multicultural. I mean, the country has fundamentally shifted,

464
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 1: and I think a lot of people still don't recognize it.

465
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 1: Greatl you, thank you so much more. The generous of

466
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:06,640
Speaker 1: your time today with the Horizon invest is David, were

467
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 1: you taking notes right here? Points one and two they're

468
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 1: going in the question line who you put your trust

469
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 1: in matters. Investors have put their trust in independent registered

470
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:24,920
Speaker 1: investment advisors to the tune of four trillion dollars. Why

471
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 1: they see their role is to serve, not sell. That's

472
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 1: why Charles Schwab is committed to the success of over

473
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 1: seven thousand independent financial advisors who passionately dedicate themselves to

474
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 1: helping people achieve their financial goals, learn more and find

475
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 1: your independent advisor dot com. Let's bring in David Harrow.

476
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:55,399
Speaker 1: We usually speak investments and of course international investments, David

477
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 1: Harrow of Chicago, but with his immense affinity for Wisconsin,

478
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:02,360
Speaker 1: where there is a key race tonight, the Senate race.

479
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 1: David Harrow, you are quite vocally a Republican. Ron Johnson

480
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:10,479
Speaker 1: has done better than good against Mr Finegold. What does

481
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 1: Mr Johnson need to do to win in your Wisconsin

482
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 1: this morning? Well, you know, it's all about turnout and

483
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 1: getting your supporters to the polls. And if I think

484
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 1: Mr Johnson could do that, and if his supporters are

485
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:27,439
Speaker 1: more enthusiastic than Mr Finegold's, which I'm hoping to be

486
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:30,399
Speaker 1: the case, um, then I think he has a good

487
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 1: chance of winning. Recall, he entered office six years ago.

488
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 1: It was his first political run ever. He's a manufacturer,

489
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 1: he's a businessman. He's not from the political class and

490
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 1: Mr Finegold, of course, it's just the opposite. He's been

491
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 1: in politics all his life. So I'm sure for Mr Johnson,

492
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:52,360
Speaker 1: I think he's a very strong candidate. I think he's

493
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 1: been a good senator. He just isn't necessarily have strong

494
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:58,400
Speaker 1: political skills, because that's not what he is one of

495
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 1: our themes this morning. Dave Harrold is how the states

496
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 1: of our childhood has changed. My Western New York has changed.

497
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 1: Many would say it's been carved out into a non

498
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 1: economic wasteland. David Gurrow was talking about his North Carolina.

499
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 1: How is your Wisconsin changed over the decades. Well, let's see,

500
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 1: the packers aren't doing as well as they should be

501
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 1: doing the same. You owe me an apology given the

502
00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 1: results of the World Series. He's got a great game anyway,

503
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 1: that was a great game. Uh, you know, Wisconsin. Wisconsin

504
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 1: has changed, but I don't think so radically. So you

505
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 1: still have the manufacturing base in the southeast, and of

506
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 1: course the central part of the state is very agricultural,

507
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:45,720
Speaker 1: lot of dairy farms and cheese factories. And then the

508
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 1: north part of the state is woods and lakes, and

509
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 1: that's kind of the rough, rough makeup of Wisconsin. There

510
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 1: was a good article in the Wall Street Journal last

511
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:58,360
Speaker 1: week about immigration flows into places like western Wisconsin and

512
00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 1: all over, which has added little bit of diversity to

513
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,080
Speaker 1: the state. But it was a fairly diverse state anyway.

514
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:07,680
Speaker 1: The south east very very German, and as you moved

515
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 1: to the north you get the Dutch, and then the

516
00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:12,920
Speaker 1: Northwest you get the Scandinavians. So you know it's still

517
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 1: to me, Um, it hasn't changed radically, and it is

518
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 1: a place for good government. I mean, it's relatively clean

519
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 1: and transparent, very different than where I'm sitting here in Chicago,

520
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 1: where pay to play is the is the rule of

521
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 1: the day. They let me ask you about allegiance to

522
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 1: party in the in the context of this election, I

523
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 1: imagine you and others have thought a lot about that.

524
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:39,800
Speaker 1: I think of of Paul Ryan campaigning with Mike Pence,

525
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 1: but but not with Donald Trump. Has party played a

526
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 1: less important role in this election? I I sensed it

527
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 1: on the Democratic side. On the Republican side, there were

528
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 1: those who might not be that enthusiastic about the Canada

529
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 1: but still feel some tied to the party. Yeah. I mean,

530
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 1: I personally believe that one should be, uh, have allegiance

531
00:30:57,400 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 1: to your values and what you believe is important and

532
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 1: important issues. And whether it's a Democratic, Republican or libertarian,

533
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 1: whoever it is that has those issues character Um, whatever

534
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:13,600
Speaker 1: these characteristics are, that's who you should go for. I'm

535
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 1: not someone who who advocates this blindly following a party.

536
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 1: I I don't think it's a good thing. Um, you know.

537
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,960
Speaker 1: And as as someone who's usually votes Republican, I was,

538
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 1: you know, this is a tough tough Here a quick note,

539
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 1: David jump in here with David Hero but David Garral

540
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 1: Dan Kennedy, Professor, New York, Northeastern University in Boston with

541
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 1: a photograph and he guess this is the anecdote of turnout.

542
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:42,120
Speaker 1: Greg v. David Garrow warning is to be careful about

543
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 1: the early take on turnout. But at the West Medford

544
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 1: fire Station, West Medford, Massachusetts, Professor Kennedy as a photo

545
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 1: stretching around the block. Is their enthusiasm for voting? Where

546
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 1: you are in Illinois, where you're from in Wisconsin, is

547
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 1: there's still enthusiasm for the the the active democracy? Yeah,

548
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 1: I generally think so. Chicago doesn't seem to be is

549
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 1: And I think this is by the way true everywhere.

550
00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 1: You don't see bumper stickers this year. You don't see

551
00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 1: a lot of yard signs as in the past. Today,

552
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 1: driving in I almost didn't see anything in Chicago. Now

553
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 1: in Wisconsin there was a little more. I was in

554
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:25,240
Speaker 1: Wisconsin over the weekend. There was a little bit more.

555
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 1: But it used to be in the olden days, the

556
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 1: daily machine whipped everyone up and there would be signs

557
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:32,920
Speaker 1: every two feet for someone going up and down, say

558
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 1: Michigan Avenue or anywhere. It's very quiet here this year.

559
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 1: In Illinois, there's some state wide races going on because

560
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 1: the governor's fighting with the Speaker of the House, and

561
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 1: there's been a lot of money flying around. But I

562
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:48,880
Speaker 1: think in a state like Illinois, which really isn't in

563
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 1: play um, there's a lot of turnoff and there I

564
00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 1: think there will be a low turnout. It's just my guess.

565
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:59,360
Speaker 1: David her always saw a pop in the market yesterday.

566
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 1: You are want to worry about a one day pop

567
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 1: in the market. But it does show the linkage of

568
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:09,680
Speaker 1: our politics in the market emotion. If Secretary Clinton is

569
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 1: voted president, is that good for the portfolios of Mr Harrow?

570
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 1: I think this is just a guess and and and

571
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 1: this is just a short term trading. I think in

572
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 1: the medium and long term the differences is very small,

573
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 1: depending But if if Secretary Clinton wins the presidency and

574
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 1: the Republicans maintain both houses, I would imagine that is

575
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 1: would be the most optimistic case for the markets and

576
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 1: in the short term performance. Now, what ultimately matters, but

577
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 1: ultimately matters is what policies of the politicians put forth

578
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 1: that impact company's ability to earn money and to grow

579
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 1: cash flow streams. And here's where there's often opportunity in

580
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 1: the short term investors or traders, I should say, acting

581
00:33:56,600 --> 00:34:00,200
Speaker 1: in very knee jerk fashion, reacting to every change gin

582
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 1: poles or change in election outcome. And actually the changes

583
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:08,239
Speaker 1: in business value don't move in such a knee jerk way.

584
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:12,360
Speaker 1: Changes in business value happen over the medium and long term,

585
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 1: and you know, business people could also react to these

586
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 1: changes in legislation. So that's ultimately what happens and what

587
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 1: we have to watch as long term investors as traders.

588
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:27,320
Speaker 1: I think definitely what markets want are Mrs Clinton to

589
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:30,799
Speaker 1: be elected in the Republicans control both houses. I'm not

590
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:34,399
Speaker 1: sure why that's either, but I think that's what markets want.

591
00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:38,080
Speaker 1: David Harrow will continue with the Harris Associates in Chicago's

592
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:41,880
Speaker 1: perspective on his Wisconsin. As Mr Harrow mentioned, he has

593
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 1: one in support of not always but usually Republican politics.

594
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 1: David Gura, if you'd like to vote in Columbus, Ohio,

595
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 1: which would be illegal since I'm registered in New York.

596
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:58,720
Speaker 1: We we we showed video earlier of the voting booth

597
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 1: it hugh Y Honda out on seventy. I guess after

598
00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 1: you vote, you can look at the local latest two

599
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:11,560
Speaker 1: thousand seventeen HRV crossover. David Harrow with US in Chicago.

600
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 1: But Harris Associates and David, the imagery of Americans voting

601
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 1: in a Honda dealership in Columbus, Ohio speaks to your

602
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:24,759
Speaker 1: view on foreign investment in the multinational world we live in.

603
00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:28,759
Speaker 1: Give us an update on the Japanese shares, the European

604
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 1: shares you own of their investment in this America. Well,

605
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 1: the Honda, of course is has a very big manufacturing

606
00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:42,719
Speaker 1: footprint United States. In fact, I believe they produced more

607
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:46,719
Speaker 1: cars in the US than they do in Japan. Know

608
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 1: that they were the first transplant maybe Volkswagen once you

609
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:53,080
Speaker 1: remember Volkswagan at that plant in Pennsylvania many many years

610
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:57,279
Speaker 1: ago that made rabbits um, but I think Honda preceded that.

611
00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:01,360
Speaker 1: And so you know, a huge manufact in footprint for Honda,

612
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 1: same with Toyota, even the German luxury makers. Now you

613
00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 1: know in in the Carolinas, and uh BMW makes trucks.

614
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:14,200
Speaker 1: All their X five, x four x three's are all

615
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 1: made in the United States, I think almost eight hundred

616
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,719
Speaker 1: thousand plus units and X A lot of these are exported.

617
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,600
Speaker 1: So you know, we certainly have a very global economy.

618
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:27,560
Speaker 1: Not that manufacturers want to be near where their consumers are.

619
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:32,719
Speaker 1: So you've had foreign companies expanding their footprint in the

620
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:36,200
Speaker 1: United States and elsewhere. When I first came into this business,

621
00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:39,880
Speaker 1: I remember this was in the mid eighties. You go

622
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:43,280
Speaker 1: to Sweden and everyone just exported from Sweden as an example,

623
00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:46,120
Speaker 1: or from Italy or from Germany. And now these big

624
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:49,919
Speaker 1: multinationals and make plants where their customers are. So it's

625
00:36:50,080 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 1: it's been this has been a widespread theme over the

626
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:56,240
Speaker 1: last couple of decades. David. Do you expect the conversation

627
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 1: in light of that? Do you expect the conversation about

628
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:01,759
Speaker 1: trade and trade policy to continue here on the perch

629
00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 1: of of going down a path that would uh see

630
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 1: the TPP withering away. Do you expect we're going to

631
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:11,160
Speaker 1: have a serious conversation about trade after this election is

632
00:37:11,200 --> 00:37:13,719
Speaker 1: over with a are we done well? I would hope

633
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 1: so because properly instituted trade policies are very conducive to

634
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:23,239
Speaker 1: economic growth. And you know it's remember David Ricardo and

635
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:26,399
Speaker 1: is there is a comparative and competitive advantage. I think

636
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 1: these things still hold true today and there there is

637
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:33,600
Speaker 1: a massive benefit to trade. Now. I think people are

638
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:36,239
Speaker 1: concerned about some of the impacts of trade that have

639
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:39,239
Speaker 1: to be dealt with. And you also have to look

640
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:42,240
Speaker 1: at the fairness of the deals. Are are they really

641
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 1: objectively negotiated, well negotiated deals, But the notion and the

642
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:51,719
Speaker 1: principle a free trade it's very important if you want

643
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:56,200
Speaker 1: to continue to keep a vibrant, growing global economy. You

644
00:37:56,320 --> 00:38:00,360
Speaker 1: need the free flow of good services, of capital, people.

645
00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:04,239
Speaker 1: You need these things in order to to enhance and

646
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 1: encourage growth. We're about to talk to Megan green with

647
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 1: with Manual Life, chief economist of Manual Life, and in

648
00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:12,160
Speaker 1: her most recent notes she poses a rhetorical question here,

649
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 1: that being what's the role of the president for you,

650
00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 1: David Harry, the investor, What do you look to the

651
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:21,560
Speaker 1: president to do? What what makes a good president? Well,

652
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:23,879
Speaker 1: I think the president should really kind of set the

653
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:26,560
Speaker 1: theme and if you look at what I believe is

654
00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 1: one of the best presidents we've had in our time,

655
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:35,360
Speaker 1: Ronald Reagan. He set his themes broad general themes, individual responsibility,

656
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:37,840
Speaker 1: government that governs the least, governs the best, you know,

657
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 1: fair and easy to understand regulation. And notice how that

658
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 1: was replicated throughout the world as he was fairly successful

659
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:48,680
Speaker 1: at it here in the United States. So that the

660
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 1: president really it's it's kind of on the softer side,

661
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 1: really has to take lead at these things. And I

662
00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 1: think one of the issues in the past has been,

663
00:38:58,239 --> 00:39:01,760
Speaker 1: you know, we are one country and the president should

664
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:04,239
Speaker 1: act as a unifier, not as a divider. And I

665
00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 1: think in the past we've had, you know, very divisive,

666
00:39:07,239 --> 00:39:11,240
Speaker 1: strong divisiveness, and this is hopefully the next president, whoever

667
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:14,319
Speaker 1: it may be, it's more of a unifier. And yes,

668
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:17,480
Speaker 1: we're we're many differences, but we have many similarities and

669
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 1: common values and the president must highlight those from the

670
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 1: Northwest as we were taught in school. David Harrow, this

671
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 1: has been wonderful, David, thank you so much for the

672
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:31,719
Speaker 1: classy diversion from the world of international investment. David Harrow,

673
00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 1: of course, with Harris Associates with a stunning track record

674
00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:41,040
Speaker 1: over the years and trying to buy value within international equities.

675
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 1: And of course today we speak of the Northwest David

676
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:48,440
Speaker 1: as it was taught to us in the middle nineteenth century,

677
00:39:48,520 --> 00:40:05,400
Speaker 1: early David Gura and Tom Keane. We're gonna flip this

678
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:07,279
Speaker 1: interview on its head. When you would usually start with

679
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:11,760
Speaker 1: Dennis Gartman about the markets, about commodities, about red wheat.

680
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:15,600
Speaker 1: But now on this selection day we speak of the nation. Dennis.

681
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:18,799
Speaker 1: Wonderful to have you on the back. Part of the

682
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:23,840
Speaker 1: Gartman letter is always exceptionally trenchant, and you, I must admit,

683
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:29,359
Speaker 1: you try like crazy to be nonpartisan. Help us here

684
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:33,480
Speaker 1: with what these two candidates mean for your many markets.

685
00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:36,360
Speaker 1: What does it mean if we have a President Trump

686
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 1: or a President Clinton. Well, I think if we have

687
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:43,920
Speaker 1: a President Clinton and I didn't vote for her, if

688
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:47,319
Speaker 1: we have a pleasant President Clinton and and a a

689
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:49,960
Speaker 1: Senate that is Republican, and a and a House that

690
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:53,440
Speaker 1: remains Republican, I think that's probably the best of all worlds,

691
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:55,359
Speaker 1: because I think it means gridlock. And I'm a big

692
00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 1: fan of gridlock, because as long as you can't do

693
00:40:57,600 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 1: anything to me, you can't harm me. I think if

694
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:04,880
Speaker 1: we have a president um Trump, who I find to

695
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:07,359
Speaker 1: be a I did, in fact vote for him, but

696
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 1: I did so with the nose held the tight uh

697
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:13,160
Speaker 1: and a Republican House and a Republican Senate. I fear

698
00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 1: that we may have an increase in trade protection, and

699
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 1: I don't think that that could be possibly good for

700
00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:20,920
Speaker 1: the stock market or for the capital markets generally. So

701
00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 1: I guess what I'm hoping for is is a is

702
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:26,120
Speaker 1: a presidency that moves to the Democrats side, and a

703
00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:29,080
Speaker 1: House and Senate that stay in the Republican side. Give

704
00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:32,560
Speaker 1: me gridlock or or as one of the great patriots

705
00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:34,480
Speaker 1: here in Virginia might have said, give me gridlock or

706
00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 1: give me death. I think that's the best of all worlds.

707
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:40,640
Speaker 1: Reading the latest letter, I was struck by the degree

708
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 1: to which the the FBI investigation to Hillary Clinton's emails

709
00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:47,680
Speaker 1: touched every single commodity you wrote about you. You're not

710
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:51,960
Speaker 1: underestimating the size of the effect of that. No, I'm

711
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 1: not underestimating the size of the effect of that. I

712
00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:57,600
Speaker 1: think if if you get a Trump presidency, perhaps it's

713
00:41:57,600 --> 00:42:01,839
Speaker 1: beneficial to the production of crude oil otherwise, and and

714
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:04,440
Speaker 1: but that that that therefore will be detrimental to the

715
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:07,600
Speaker 1: price of crude oil. Uh, it might not be drill, baby, drill,

716
00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:10,160
Speaker 1: but it'll be drill, buddy, drill and drill a little

717
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:13,320
Speaker 1: bit and do fine. That can't be supportive of the

718
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:17,839
Speaker 1: crude oil market. And protection trade protection is always going

719
00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:21,640
Speaker 1: to be deletarious to commodity prices generally. Again, give me gridlock,

720
00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 1: and then we can return to the fundamentals of each

721
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:27,480
Speaker 1: commodity individually. I can make the case that the worst

722
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:30,879
Speaker 1: possible news of great production here in the United States

723
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:34,280
Speaker 1: is already discounted in the grain market. I don't think

724
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:36,880
Speaker 1: that the price at forty four to forty five dollars

725
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:39,480
Speaker 1: per barrel for w T I is fully discounted, and

726
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:41,279
Speaker 1: I think that that can probably be another two to

727
00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:44,040
Speaker 1: three dollars to the downside. But give me gridlock, and

728
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:47,520
Speaker 1: I can go back to fundamentals rather than psychologicals rather

729
00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:50,279
Speaker 1: than technicals. Dennis, help help me understand that. I'm going

730
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:52,320
Speaker 1: back to your vote here. You you here hoping for

731
00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:54,880
Speaker 1: a Democratic president, yet you voted for the Republican I

732
00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:56,680
Speaker 1: mentioned there are some other people in your shift to

733
00:42:56,760 --> 00:42:59,000
Speaker 1: walk us through the thinking there, Why not just vote

734
00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:02,560
Speaker 1: for the person that you to be in the office. Um,

735
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:05,040
Speaker 1: Because my wife might have left me if I voted

736
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:10,719
Speaker 1: to the wrong person. I'll be But I had I

737
00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:13,319
Speaker 1: have to vote for a Republican all all things being

738
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:17,520
Speaker 1: otherwise equal, I really didn't have. I make that that

739
00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:21,560
Speaker 1: comment humorously, but quite honestly, I had really no choice.

740
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:25,840
Speaker 1: He is, at least in most instances regarding taxation, closer

741
00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 1: to what I think about. UM. He is in in

742
00:43:28,840 --> 00:43:32,880
Speaker 1: most instances regarding the the corruption of the United States,

743
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:36,160
Speaker 1: and the demoralization of the of the psychology of the country,

744
00:43:36,239 --> 00:43:39,920
Speaker 1: the demeaning of education, He's closer to what I believe in.

745
00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 1: So I had to vote for him. But but do

746
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:46,359
Speaker 1: I still wish that we that we get a gridlocked country? Yes?

747
00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:49,279
Speaker 1: I do. Dennis. What do you see on turnout? What

748
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:52,719
Speaker 1: does it look like? You're in Virginia this morning? Right? Well, yeah,

749
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:55,000
Speaker 1: it was interesting. My wife and I went to vote

750
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:57,200
Speaker 1: to the other day. We voted early, and it was

751
00:43:57,239 --> 00:43:59,520
Speaker 1: really quite crowded. I was really surprised how many people

752
00:43:59,560 --> 00:44:01,839
Speaker 1: were there in in the voting booth. Uh. The young

753
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:03,719
Speaker 1: man Chip who works for US, went and voted this

754
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 1: morning here in Virginia and he walked right through. So

755
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:09,760
Speaker 1: I was surprised. Given the given the nearly perfect weather

756
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 1: prevailing that he was able to get in and get

757
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:14,719
Speaker 1: out with that with no problem. Are stocks moving from

758
00:44:14,760 --> 00:44:18,359
Speaker 1: the lower left to the upper right? They still are

759
00:44:19,040 --> 00:44:21,480
Speaker 1: after Yes, they still are moving from the lower left

760
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:24,240
Speaker 1: of the upper right. Depends on which which which country

761
00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:26,600
Speaker 1: one looks at. I'm a little more bullish of the

762
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:29,719
Speaker 1: circumstances prevailing in Japan and in Europe than i am

763
00:44:29,760 --> 00:44:32,600
Speaker 1: here in the United States. I'd rather be bullish of

764
00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:35,480
Speaker 1: the of the stock markets, where they are continuously being

765
00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:38,880
Speaker 1: expansionary as far as their monetary policies are concerned. And

766
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:42,080
Speaker 1: without question though, every time you try to get short

767
00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:43,520
Speaker 1: of the stock market here in the United States, it

768
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:45,719
Speaker 1: does in fact blow up in your face, so you

769
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:47,320
Speaker 1: have to her upon the side of trying to be

770
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:49,960
Speaker 1: long of stocks, all things being otherwise equal. Do you

771
00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:53,600
Speaker 1: see use of cash continuing the great theme of and

772
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:56,800
Speaker 1: Brian Belsky at BEMO Capital Markets was adamant today that

773
00:44:56,920 --> 00:45:00,239
Speaker 1: this theme continues of dividend growth and share by back.

774
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:03,240
Speaker 1: Do you see any change in that? I'm really concerned

775
00:45:03,320 --> 00:45:05,880
Speaker 1: that for many many years, you know, for one, the

776
00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:09,520
Speaker 1: past decade, the the instead of capital moving into plant

777
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:12,200
Speaker 1: and equipment too much capital is moving into the buying

778
00:45:12,280 --> 00:45:15,480
Speaker 1: back of equity, and that I find disconcerting. If things

779
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 1: were really economically strong, if things were really doing well,

780
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:20,840
Speaker 1: if the tax rates in the United States and in

781
00:45:20,960 --> 00:45:23,919
Speaker 1: business were reduced, we would see that money moving into

782
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:27,200
Speaker 1: new plant, new equipment, new labor. Instead, it's been moving

783
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:31,200
Speaker 1: into buying backstock, and that I think a dismaying event. Well, Dennis,

784
00:45:31,239 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 1: I've got good news. North Carolina plays Duke before they

785
00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:38,719
Speaker 1: get to North Carolina State, thank god. So the Tarios

786
00:45:38,719 --> 00:45:41,000
Speaker 1: will be so worn out by Duke in the Citadel

787
00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:45,879
Speaker 1: by the time they get to Friday November. I think

788
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:51,080
Speaker 1: on the nine yard line, cartment on the one yard line.

789
00:45:51,640 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 1: It will be something. You know, they played football at

790
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:58,920
Speaker 1: North Carolina. They have they have a sizeable stadium. I

791
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:00,799
Speaker 1: think they're five and one this season. The wolf Pack

792
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:05,040
Speaker 1: record is not as good. Sorry, they're killing it. Five

793
00:46:05,080 --> 00:46:07,400
Speaker 1: and one of the a SEC Dennis, you're watching the

794
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:11,640
Speaker 1: wolf Pack this season sadly? Yes, i am. I've watched

795
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:13,799
Speaker 1: this miss the field goal from the two yard line

796
00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:16,440
Speaker 1: to lose to Clemson. I watched us throw an interception

797
00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:20,560
Speaker 1: the other day against Florida State to lose to them. Yes, sadly,

798
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:24,200
Speaker 1: I am, I am I you should indict me for that.

799
00:46:26,400 --> 00:46:30,320
Speaker 1: It's ring North Carolina's state football Dennis. It's there you go,

800
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:33,160
Speaker 1: Dennis Garbage, editor and publisher of The Garbage Letter. Onto

801
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:36,560
Speaker 1: matters of greater significance. Perhaps we had this earthquake outside

802
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:39,880
Speaker 1: there's nothing more significant than that. Yeah, we had this

803
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 1: earthquake outside Cushing. What's the what's the effect been here

804
00:46:43,160 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 1: on on oil since then? And get us up to

805
00:46:45,239 --> 00:46:47,000
Speaker 1: speed on the ongoing back and forth and back and

806
00:46:47,080 --> 00:46:50,880
Speaker 1: forth and back and forth on production cuts with OPEC. Yeah. Interestingly,

807
00:46:50,920 --> 00:46:52,960
Speaker 1: well interestingly, one might have thought that that would be

808
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:55,160
Speaker 1: bullish of the cude oil market, but in reality it's

809
00:46:55,160 --> 00:46:59,160
Speaker 1: really not. Maybe it is supportive for of w t I,

810
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:02,759
Speaker 1: but it and it might narrow the relationship between w

811
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:06,359
Speaker 1: t I and and Brent crude a bit. You will

812
00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:08,680
Speaker 1: not see as much crude oil. The propensity for moving

813
00:47:08,680 --> 00:47:11,759
Speaker 1: crude oil into storage and pushing probably has somewhat been

814
00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:14,800
Speaker 1: somewhat reduced. And isn't all economics the study of people's

815
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:18,239
Speaker 1: propensities to do something. But but on balance, I think

816
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 1: the impact of that is other than on the carrying charges,

817
00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:24,200
Speaker 1: other than on the movement from contango to backwardation and

818
00:47:24,600 --> 00:47:27,719
Speaker 1: back again. The impact upon crude oil prices generally is

819
00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:30,839
Speaker 1: really quite small. What's really important is that, yes, there

820
00:47:30,880 --> 00:47:33,120
Speaker 1: probably shall be some sort of an agreement, and the

821
00:47:33,160 --> 00:47:36,239
Speaker 1: operative awards are some sort and the operator, the second

822
00:47:36,280 --> 00:47:38,839
Speaker 1: of operative awards are will they be cheated on. There

823
00:47:38,880 --> 00:47:40,840
Speaker 1: may be some sort of an agreement at the November

824
00:47:40,880 --> 00:47:43,440
Speaker 1: OPEC meeting, but they will be cheated on by everybody.

825
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:45,400
Speaker 1: It is, if I've learned anything in forty years of

826
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:48,320
Speaker 1: watching the markets, you can count on OPEC cheating. The

827
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:51,680
Speaker 1: headline for me seems to be Russian indecision prevails. I mean,

828
00:47:51,760 --> 00:47:54,719
Speaker 1: since that agreement was reached in principle, we've seen back

829
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:57,840
Speaker 1: back and forth from from the President of Russia the

830
00:47:57,920 --> 00:47:59,960
Speaker 1: head of the largest gas company there. I mean, it's

831
00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 1: been a constant back and forth. I think perhaps the

832
00:48:03,600 --> 00:48:06,760
Speaker 1: most important comments made were not made by anybody within OPEC,

833
00:48:06,800 --> 00:48:09,160
Speaker 1: but were in fact by Mr Sechin as you as

834
00:48:09,200 --> 00:48:12,360
Speaker 1: you just suggested, the president of Russneft, who when asked

835
00:48:12,760 --> 00:48:16,080
Speaker 1: at that last meeting in Algiers if he intended to

836
00:48:16,239 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 1: curtail production and he s he said, why should I?

837
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:21,440
Speaker 1: If everybody else is I shall continue to produce. That

838
00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:24,800
Speaker 1: is his job. And as long as Russneft, the largest

839
00:48:24,880 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 1: Russian oil producer in Russia, vas with with Saudi Arabia

840
00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:31,480
Speaker 1: being the largest world's producer of crude oil. If the

841
00:48:31,520 --> 00:48:34,879
Speaker 1: largest producer in Russia refuses to to curtail production, why

842
00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:37,120
Speaker 1: would anybody else. It's it's one of those things. It's

843
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:39,120
Speaker 1: a race to the bottom as far as I'm concerned.

844
00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:42,279
Speaker 1: So the odds of any material agreement coming out of

845
00:48:42,320 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 1: the meeting, the OPEC meeting in Vanity at the end

846
00:48:44,640 --> 00:48:47,800
Speaker 1: of this month that lasts are are negligible at best.

847
00:48:48,080 --> 00:48:50,640
Speaker 1: We're talking with Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics yesterday

848
00:48:50,680 --> 00:48:54,520
Speaker 1: about the situation in Canada, something so tightly tied to

849
00:48:54,600 --> 00:48:56,920
Speaker 1: the energy picture there has it stabilized? Now when you

850
00:48:56,960 --> 00:48:59,040
Speaker 1: look at the Canadian economy, how is it doing visa

851
00:48:59,160 --> 00:49:02,279
Speaker 1: VI the the energy economy in Canada. Well, first of all,

852
00:49:02,320 --> 00:49:05,120
Speaker 1: I'm surprised at how long the honeymoon has lasted for

853
00:49:05,239 --> 00:49:08,200
Speaker 1: Mr Trudeau. Yes, he does have very nice hair, but

854
00:49:08,320 --> 00:49:11,040
Speaker 1: he's not been I I can't imagine him being the

855
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:13,800
Speaker 1: greatest of all leaders, but he has done nothing untoward,

856
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:19,680
Speaker 1: nothing discouraging UH to to limit production or to increase production.

857
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:22,880
Speaker 1: He's basically stayed aside. He's let most of the discourage

858
00:49:22,880 --> 00:49:27,320
Speaker 1: and most of these circumstances prevailing UH fall upon the

859
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:30,479
Speaker 1: shoulders of the provincial premiere. And I am a little

860
00:49:30,560 --> 00:49:33,600
Speaker 1: dismayed that Ms Notley, the the Premiere of Alberta, is

861
00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:37,280
Speaker 1: openly antagonistic towards crude oil production out of the Tar Sans.

862
00:49:37,560 --> 00:49:39,520
Speaker 1: But I think she is not long for that position

863
00:49:39,920 --> 00:49:42,400
Speaker 1: of authority in Alberta. She will probably be turned out

864
00:49:42,440 --> 00:49:47,120
Speaker 1: of office and by the next election, I hope, Well,

865
00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:50,560
Speaker 1: we'll see on that Canadian elections were not focused on today.

866
00:49:51,120 --> 00:49:54,960
Speaker 1: There is a thing called Martingale probability theory. Made a

867
00:49:55,040 --> 00:49:57,680
Speaker 1: joke about the new Las Vegas hockey team, Dennis that

868
00:49:57,719 --> 00:50:00,320
Speaker 1: they ought to be called the Las Vegas Martin Gales,

869
00:50:00,520 --> 00:50:03,480
Speaker 1: and nobody but ed Thorpe. Nobody but Ed Thorpe got

870
00:50:03,600 --> 00:50:07,360
Speaker 1: my analysis. I'm a big believer in what's called anti

871
00:50:07,520 --> 00:50:12,080
Speaker 1: Martin Gale theory, which is established a trade and add

872
00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:15,960
Speaker 1: to that trade as your success and your gain improves.

873
00:50:16,800 --> 00:50:20,480
Speaker 1: You have an exceptionally important final two sentences of your

874
00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:23,520
Speaker 1: Monday note, which is you were stopped out in a

875
00:50:23,600 --> 00:50:28,600
Speaker 1: modest loss of euro. You were hoping euro would go weak,

876
00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:33,359
Speaker 1: and it went strong, and you got right back into

877
00:50:33,440 --> 00:50:38,320
Speaker 1: the trade after the stop. Now, folks, a gardment lesson

878
00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:43,560
Speaker 1: on being careful discussed this dentist. Well, yes, I did

879
00:50:43,600 --> 00:50:46,440
Speaker 1: get stopped out. I I sold euro at one and

880
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:49,759
Speaker 1: went to one and actually went to eleven thirty five

881
00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:53,239
Speaker 1: right at the very last trade on Friday. A little discouraging,

882
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:54,960
Speaker 1: but it wasn't that much of a loss. It was forty.

883
00:50:56,280 --> 00:50:58,680
Speaker 1: But the hard part is to come back in and say, look,

884
00:50:58,719 --> 00:51:00,719
Speaker 1: the market is telling me that i'm because the euro

885
00:51:00,880 --> 00:51:04,360
Speaker 1: then got weak again yesterday. The trend has been downward

886
00:51:04,400 --> 00:51:07,840
Speaker 1: for the past two years. Clearly, uh, it has obviously

887
00:51:07,920 --> 00:51:09,920
Speaker 1: been lower the past several months and seems to be

888
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:14,839
Speaker 1: getting stronger to the downside. And and the the euro

889
00:51:15,040 --> 00:51:17,800
Speaker 1: is losing on a consistent basis relative to the to

890
00:51:17,920 --> 00:51:20,400
Speaker 1: the Swiss Frank, which I think is a thermometer of

891
00:51:20,560 --> 00:51:25,000
Speaker 1: of of foreign exchange trading circumstances. As long as that continues,

892
00:51:25,000 --> 00:51:27,520
Speaker 1: I'm going to be barish of of the euro. Was

893
00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:30,200
Speaker 1: I wrong for forty pips? Yes, But that's the hardest

894
00:51:30,200 --> 00:51:32,080
Speaker 1: thing to do, is to get stopped out and come

895
00:51:32,160 --> 00:51:34,480
Speaker 1: back in. When the market tells you that you're right,

896
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:36,320
Speaker 1: you always want to try to do it at a

897
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:38,960
Speaker 1: higher price than orere you've got stopped out at but

898
00:51:39,080 --> 00:51:40,880
Speaker 1: coming in and I had no choice, I had to

899
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:42,759
Speaker 1: come in and do it again. I think that the

900
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:45,759
Speaker 1: Euro trades under par sometime in the next year or two.

901
00:51:46,520 --> 00:51:48,200
Speaker 1: I think that what we've seen for the past two

902
00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:51,080
Speaker 1: years is a consolidation of what's been a long term

903
00:51:51,120 --> 00:51:54,360
Speaker 1: bear market. The political circumstances in Europe are confusing, and

904
00:51:54,440 --> 00:51:57,320
Speaker 1: the monetary authorities are remaining expansion there, and you carry

905
00:51:57,360 --> 00:52:01,719
Speaker 1: that conviction forward with your gold in row terms. I

906
00:52:01,880 --> 00:52:04,640
Speaker 1: did an inflation adjusted gold chart the other day, and

907
00:52:04,680 --> 00:52:08,120
Speaker 1: again it is striking how gold is elevated when you

908
00:52:08,239 --> 00:52:11,920
Speaker 1: adjust for inflation. Is gold of value now, Mr Gartman,

909
00:52:13,000 --> 00:52:15,480
Speaker 1: I'm not sure that golden dollar terms is a value,

910
00:52:15,560 --> 00:52:18,239
Speaker 1: but I see gold as being nothing more than than

911
00:52:18,360 --> 00:52:21,799
Speaker 1: a safe haven currency it is. I'm not a gold bug.

912
00:52:21,840 --> 00:52:23,319
Speaker 1: I don't think that gold is to be all an

913
00:52:23,400 --> 00:52:26,440
Speaker 1: end all. I think it is simply another currency and

914
00:52:26,560 --> 00:52:29,279
Speaker 1: currency traders. Having grown up as a currency trader, you

915
00:52:29,360 --> 00:52:32,480
Speaker 1: are taught to trade one currency against another, to spread

916
00:52:32,560 --> 00:52:35,880
Speaker 1: the old German mark against the Italian lira to spread

917
00:52:36,040 --> 00:52:38,600
Speaker 1: the euro against the British pound sterling to spread again

918
00:52:38,680 --> 00:52:42,040
Speaker 1: against the euro. And I want to own the currency

919
00:52:42,160 --> 00:52:46,359
Speaker 1: that likely shell rally where the monetary authorities are being constrictive,

920
00:52:46,719 --> 00:52:48,520
Speaker 1: and and I want to be short of the currency

921
00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:51,759
Speaker 1: where the monetary authorities are being expansionary. Uh, there's not

922
00:52:51,960 --> 00:52:55,360
Speaker 1: that much gold being mined that that monetary authority, if

923
00:52:55,400 --> 00:52:57,800
Speaker 1: we can call it such, is somewhat restrictive. But the

924
00:52:57,880 --> 00:53:00,720
Speaker 1: monetary authorities in Europe are being expansion a buy golden

925
00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:03,840
Speaker 1: euro terms. It eliminates a great good deal of the

926
00:53:03,960 --> 00:53:08,120
Speaker 1: daily random noise and coming in gold itself. Dennis Ryan

927
00:53:08,400 --> 00:53:15,239
Speaker 1: Switzer wide receiver, guitar heels Charleston wins Virginia Senior. He's

928
00:53:15,280 --> 00:53:19,799
Speaker 1: the one to watch, all right, I don't know. I hope, well, yes,

929
00:53:19,960 --> 00:53:24,160
Speaker 1: we have to watch everybody. It did so, and actually

930
00:53:24,200 --> 00:53:26,080
Speaker 1: nobody has to watch us much once we go within

931
00:53:26,160 --> 00:53:28,879
Speaker 1: the twenty yard line here we apparently cannot score at all.

932
00:53:29,040 --> 00:53:31,640
Speaker 1: Thank you for that football analysis, Dennis Garb and go

933
00:53:31,800 --> 00:53:36,600
Speaker 1: North Carolina's day. We greatly appreciate it. On this election day.

934
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:47,840
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and

935
00:53:48,040 --> 00:53:53,080
Speaker 1: listen to interviews on iTunes, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform

936
00:53:53,239 --> 00:53:56,760
Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm out on Twitter at Tom Keene. David

937
00:53:56,800 --> 00:54:00,480
Speaker 1: Gura is at David Gura. Before the podcast, you can

938
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:17,040
Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio. Who you put

939
00:54:17,080 --> 00:54:20,840
Speaker 1: your trust in matters. Investors have put their trust in

940
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:25,200
Speaker 1: independent registered investment advisors to the tune of four trillion dollars.

941
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:29,799
Speaker 1: Why learn more and find your independent advisor dot com.