1
00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:07,080
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

2
00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,240
Speaker 2: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Alexis Christophers.

3
00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:16,759
Speaker 3: Here are the stories we're following today, Alexis.

4
00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:19,360
Speaker 2: The seasfire between the US and Iran has reached the

5
00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:22,200
Speaker 2: one month mark, and this morning, both sides are circling

6
00:00:22,200 --> 00:00:25,319
Speaker 2: around a new proposal to end their nearly ten week war.

7
00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,760
Speaker 3: The way President Trump puts it, he already has the.

8
00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:31,400
Speaker 4: Leaders are all dead, So I think we won.

9
00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:34,479
Speaker 2: The President spoke from the Oval Office as Iran reviews

10
00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:38,000
Speaker 2: a one page memorandum of understanding on stopping the conflict.

11
00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:40,800
Speaker 4: They want to make a deal badly, and we'll see

12
00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:42,360
Speaker 4: if we get there. If we get there, they can't

13
00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:44,080
Speaker 4: have nuclear weapons. You know, it's very.

14
00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:46,040
Speaker 3: Simple, President Trump at the Oval Office.

15
00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:49,600
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Middle East correspondent Jamana Borsecci reports the one page

16
00:00:49,640 --> 00:00:53,240
Speaker 2: proposal would be a first step if both sides agree.

17
00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:56,080
Speaker 5: It would include an immediate end to hostilities, and then

18
00:00:56,160 --> 00:00:59,880
Speaker 5: a thirty day period in which negotiations would begin surrounding

19
00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:03,880
Speaker 5: the lifting of the mutual blockades around the streets, reopening

20
00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:08,640
Speaker 5: of that nuclear file, discussions around the timeframe of uranium enrichment,

21
00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:12,319
Speaker 5: and then also handing over the fate of that highly.

22
00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:13,400
Speaker 6: Enriched uranium soft file.

23
00:01:13,440 --> 00:01:14,960
Speaker 5: Of course, we know that they're sitting on more than

24
00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:19,600
Speaker 5: four hundred kilos worth of sixty percent plus highly enriched uranium.

25
00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:21,480
Speaker 5: So that is a big topic, that was even a

26
00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:23,119
Speaker 5: topic before the war kicked off.

27
00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:26,600
Speaker 2: Bloombergs Jumana Burssetti reports Iron would be looking for significant

28
00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:29,440
Speaker 2: sanctions relief in exchange for all that. There may be

29
00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:31,760
Speaker 2: urgency at the White House to get a deal done.

30
00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:34,400
Speaker 2: President Trump has a summit next week in Beijing with

31
00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:38,240
Speaker 2: Chinese President Shi Jinping, and gasoline prices have topped four

32
00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:41,360
Speaker 2: fifty a gallon for the first time in nearly four years.

33
00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:44,840
Speaker 7: Nathan, the Israeli Army has carried out an attack in

34
00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:48,320
Speaker 7: the southern suburbs of Beirut. The military says the precision

35
00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:51,840
Speaker 7: strike killed Ahmed Ali Balut, the commander of Hesbola's elite

36
00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:55,040
Speaker 7: Radwan force. This was the first Israeli strike in the

37
00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:58,760
Speaker 7: vicinity of Lebanon's capital since the US broker ceasefire came

38
00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:02,240
Speaker 7: into effect last month. Iran has previously threatened to withdraw

39
00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:05,320
Speaker 7: from it cease fire with the US if Israel keeps

40
00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:07,040
Speaker 7: up attacks in Lebanon, Alexis.

41
00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:09,000
Speaker 2: There's a more proof this morning on how the conflict

42
00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:11,680
Speaker 2: in the Middle East is affecting the airlines industry.

43
00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:14,440
Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Lisa Matteo has the details.

44
00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:17,880
Speaker 8: New data from the US Department of Transportations Bureau of

45
00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:22,680
Speaker 8: Transportation Statistics shows fuel costs for US airlines increased by

46
00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:25,680
Speaker 8: more than fifty six percent in March from the month before.

47
00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:29,040
Speaker 8: Oil consumption also grew by nineteen and a half percent

48
00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:32,480
Speaker 8: from February to March, and fuel cost per gallon was

49
00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:36,359
Speaker 8: up almost thirty one percent. The costs were also significantly

50
00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:39,520
Speaker 8: higher when compared to March of last year. Spiking fuel

51
00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:42,720
Speaker 8: prices have pushed carriers to increase fares and baggage fees,

52
00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:45,120
Speaker 8: as well as cut back on routes. It was also

53
00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:47,959
Speaker 8: a major factor in the closure of Spirit Aviation.

54
00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:52,320
Speaker 7: Lisa Mateo, Bloomberg Radio, Thanks Lisa and elsewhere this morning.

55
00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:55,280
Speaker 7: Secretary of State Marco Rubio is in Italy, where he's

56
00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:58,840
Speaker 7: meeting Popelo the fourteenth. The gathering comes amid continued attacks

57
00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:01,520
Speaker 7: by President Trump and and the head of the Catholic Church.

58
00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:04,400
Speaker 7: Bloomberg's Flavior Ro Tondi has more from Rome.

59
00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:07,400
Speaker 9: Rubio said in the last few days that district to

60
00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:11,040
Speaker 9: Rome and the Vatican has been planned months ago before

61
00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:15,720
Speaker 9: the tensions between President Donald Trump and Leo. Said that

62
00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:18,880
Speaker 9: the visit was part of a regular engagement with the

63
00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:22,240
Speaker 9: only See. But of course the decision to come to

64
00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:26,720
Speaker 9: Rome these days is here in Italy prompted speculation that Rubio,

65
00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:29,359
Speaker 9: who is Catholic, as you know, what's going on a

66
00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:33,160
Speaker 9: sort of a mission to repay relations. I would say

67
00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:36,920
Speaker 9: strange by Trumps back and forth with the Pope and

68
00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:41,520
Speaker 9: Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni in the last few weeks.

69
00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,840
Speaker 7: Bloomberg's Flavio ro Tondi in Rome says that Rubio's focus

70
00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:47,200
Speaker 7: of the chap will be shared interests with the Vatican,

71
00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:51,240
Speaker 7: including humanitarian aid in Cuba and religious freedom in Africa.

72
00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:54,560
Speaker 2: Now Like says trade tensions could overshadow Rubio's trip to

73
00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:57,960
Speaker 2: Europe as well. The European Union has failed to finalize

74
00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:01,720
Speaker 2: a long delayed US trade deal during overnight talks. That's

75
00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:04,160
Speaker 2: despite warnings from President Trump that he would soon impost

76
00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:07,040
Speaker 2: fresh tariffs on the block. We get more from Bloomberg

77
00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:09,120
Speaker 2: Chief Europe correspondent Oliver Crook.

78
00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:11,120
Speaker 10: Well, you had last night was the meeting of the Trilog.

79
00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,280
Speaker 10: This is the sort of synonym for reconciliation, the discussions

80
00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:16,200
Speaker 10: that happen at the European level to try to get

81
00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:19,080
Speaker 10: this now new amended trade deal across It did not

82
00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:21,599
Speaker 10: make a sort of a big breakthrough, the sort of

83
00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:24,120
Speaker 10: swift resolution that Trump wanted. But we did hear from

84
00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:27,200
Speaker 10: the EPP party, this is the biggest party in European Parliament.

85
00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:30,000
Speaker 10: That basically the final rounds of negotiations with EU member

86
00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:32,440
Speaker 10: states and the European Commission and will be scheduled for

87
00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:35,480
Speaker 10: the nineteenth of May, with the European Parliament's final vote

88
00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:38,400
Speaker 10: expected in June. Now, there are two scenarios here. One

89
00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:40,599
Speaker 10: they get this through, the US is happy. The second

90
00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:42,640
Speaker 10: is you start to get these US auto tariffs, you

91
00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:45,320
Speaker 10: go back to square one. We don't think that's likely, because,

92
00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:46,960
Speaker 10: of course, the Europeans didn't want to deal with the

93
00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:49,120
Speaker 10: trade word to begin with much less now when there's

94
00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:51,640
Speaker 10: this issue of stragflation sort of hanging over the economy.

95
00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:52,920
Speaker 3: Here Bloomberg's Oliver Crooks.

96
00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:55,640
Speaker 2: As President Trump threatened last week to increase tariffs on

97
00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:59,479
Speaker 2: EU cars and trucks from fifteen to twenty five percent

98
00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:00,600
Speaker 2: and back here.

99
00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:03,680
Speaker 7: In the US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick testified to the

100
00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:08,440
Speaker 7: House committee investigating Jeffrey Epstein's crimes and possible lapses in

101
00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:12,480
Speaker 7: the law enforcement response. Bloomberg's Amy Morris reports from Washington.

102
00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:16,240
Speaker 11: Secretary of Lutnick's testimony was challenged by Democrats, who questioned

103
00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:18,960
Speaker 11: his credibility and accused him of not being truthful about

104
00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:21,719
Speaker 11: his visit to Epstein's island. Ranking member of the House

105
00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:23,600
Speaker 11: Select Committee Rocanna, it was.

106
00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:28,640
Speaker 2: Just contortions and lies and no acknowledgment that he misled.

107
00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:29,920
Speaker 12: The American Public.

108
00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:33,800
Speaker 11: House Oversight Chair James Comer says Lutnick was transparent, testifying

109
00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:35,280
Speaker 11: before the committee voluntarily.

110
00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:38,200
Speaker 13: The only thing that I'd seen that Lutnick did wrong

111
00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:42,479
Speaker 13: wasn't truthful on the brief visit to the island with

112
00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:43,040
Speaker 13: his family.

113
00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:44,919
Speaker 3: He corrected that.

114
00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:47,520
Speaker 11: It was a closed door testimony. The committee plans to

115
00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:50,560
Speaker 11: release a transcript in the next few days. In Washington,

116
00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:52,240
Speaker 11: Amy Morris Bloomberg Radio.

117
00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:54,440
Speaker 2: Amy Thanks. On the day of that testimony. Some long

118
00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:57,720
Speaker 2: concealed evidence in the Epstein case has been released. A

119
00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:00,640
Speaker 2: federal judge is unsealed and purported at Sue side note

120
00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:03,520
Speaker 2: that Epstein's former cellmate says he found tucked in a

121
00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:07,400
Speaker 2: graphic novel and the late Sex Offenders Manhattan jail ceuth.

122
00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:09,280
Speaker 2: The New York Times asked for this note to be released.

123
00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:12,440
Speaker 2: Federal prosecutors did not object. It reads, in part, they

124
00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:15,919
Speaker 2: investigated me for month, found nothing. It goes on to

125
00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:17,720
Speaker 2: say it is a treat to be able to choose

126
00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:19,160
Speaker 2: the time to say goodbye.

127
00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:19,360
Speaker 3: Now.

128
00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:22,040
Speaker 2: The existence of this note was little known until last year,

129
00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:25,479
Speaker 2: when Epstein's former cell mate mentioned it in a podcast interview.

130
00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:28,760
Speaker 2: It was not mentioned in the Justice departments millions of

131
00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:29,839
Speaker 2: Epstein files.

132
00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:32,960
Speaker 7: We turn now to the markets, where futures are higher.

133
00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:35,880
Speaker 7: After another record setting session on Wall Street, the S

134
00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:38,000
Speaker 7: and P five hundred rows one and a half percent

135
00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:41,320
Speaker 7: chipstocks helped the Nasdaq to a two percent rally. Lorie

136
00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:43,960
Speaker 7: Calvacina is head of you as equity strategy at RBC

137
00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:44,960
Speaker 7: Capital Markets.

138
00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:48,279
Speaker 14: It really is the strength of the AI related earning

139
00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:50,840
Speaker 14: story that is driving this market. That's why we do

140
00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:53,880
Speaker 14: think people will continue to sort of follow the earnings

141
00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:54,680
Speaker 14: and follow.

142
00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:55,719
Speaker 6: That big cap growth trade.

143
00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:58,320
Speaker 14: But it's very hard to get barish on the market

144
00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:00,600
Speaker 14: when you do the bottom up analysis. No matter how

145
00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:02,040
Speaker 14: you feel about the geopolitics.

146
00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:06,520
Speaker 7: RBC's Lori Calvacina notes the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also ended

147
00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:09,279
Speaker 7: the day at an all time high. In Asia overdight,

148
00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:11,920
Speaker 7: Japan's and EKE surging more than five percent to an

149
00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:15,000
Speaker 7: all time high, and checking oil this morning after yesterday

150
00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:18,400
Speaker 7: seven percent drop, Brent Krude the international benchmark down two

151
00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:24,440
Speaker 7: percent at ninety nine dollars a barrel. Time now for

152
00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:26,200
Speaker 7: a look at some of the other stories making news

153
00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:27,800
Speaker 7: in New York and around the world. For that, we're

154
00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:30,560
Speaker 7: joined by Bloomberg's Michael bar Good morning, Michael, Good morning.

155
00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:34,040
Speaker 15: Alexis health officials are trying to control a deadly outbreak

156
00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:37,000
Speaker 15: of handavirus, the first ever recorded on a cruise ship.

157
00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:40,160
Speaker 15: Three people have died, and the World Health Organization says

158
00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:44,360
Speaker 15: there are eight cases. Dutch officials say about forty passengers

159
00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:48,040
Speaker 15: from the cruise ship have disembarked on Saint Helena, but

160
00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:51,679
Speaker 15: their whereabouts have not been confirmed. The ship right now

161
00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:54,880
Speaker 15: is on its way to Spain's Canary Islands, but the

162
00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:58,960
Speaker 15: point of infection may have been Argentina. Doctor Ann Lindstrand

163
00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:02,040
Speaker 15: of the World Health Organizations says the close quarters on

164
00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:05,200
Speaker 15: cruise ships makes them vulnerable to outbreaks.

165
00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:07,520
Speaker 3: It's an incubation time of about.

166
00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:12,200
Speaker 9: One to eight weeks where this symptoms started out.

167
00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:14,120
Speaker 15: I think it's like flu like symptoms.

168
00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:18,960
Speaker 9: You have pain, muscle pain, seever, feeding week, etc.

169
00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:23,640
Speaker 15: Health authorities say nobody currently on the ship is symptomatic

170
00:08:23,840 --> 00:08:27,240
Speaker 15: for now. There's mounting pressure on state lawmakers to back

171
00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:32,120
Speaker 15: redistricting of congressional maps ahead of midterm elections. In South Carolina,

172
00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:36,360
Speaker 15: Republican state Representative Jordan Pace talked about the renewed fight

173
00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:38,920
Speaker 15: over redistricting in the Palmetto State.

174
00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:41,440
Speaker 13: I don't believe, and I don't think most people believe

175
00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:44,240
Speaker 13: that people vote best on their skin color and never have,

176
00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:48,000
Speaker 13: so I would like the map to be reflective more

177
00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:52,160
Speaker 13: of political alignment rather than any any racial components to it.

178
00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:55,760
Speaker 15: Republican lawmakers in Tennessee are poised to vote on a

179
00:08:55,760 --> 00:08:59,400
Speaker 15: plan to reshape a majority black congressional district. The move

180
00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:02,880
Speaker 15: is part of a broader strategy in southern states following

181
00:09:02,920 --> 00:09:05,960
Speaker 15: a US Supreme Court ruling that weakened the Voting Rights Act.

182
00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:10,000
Speaker 15: Democrats and civil rights activists have criticized the efforts. Rudy

183
00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:12,720
Speaker 15: Giuliani was moved out of the intensive care unit and

184
00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:17,480
Speaker 15: remains hospitalized as he continues his recovery. Juliani spokesperson Ted

185
00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:20,520
Speaker 15: Goodman says the former New York mayor is recovering from

186
00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:25,640
Speaker 15: pneumonia after complications from a pre existing respiratory condition. Global

187
00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:28,520
Speaker 15: News twenty four hours a day and whenever you want

188
00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:31,280
Speaker 15: it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr, and this

189
00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:32,520
Speaker 15: is Bloomberg Alexis.

190
00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:36,240
Speaker 7: Thanks Michael. Time now for our Bloomberg Sports update, and

191
00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:38,080
Speaker 7: for that we bring in John stash Houer.

192
00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:40,840
Speaker 12: Both teams one of the NBA playoffs that inclosed, the Knicks,

193
00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:43,520
Speaker 12: who's been blowing teams out. This one was much closer

194
00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:46,000
Speaker 12: in New York with the knicksbeat Philadelphia one o eight,

195
00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:47,800
Speaker 12: one oh two. They lead the series to nothing. It

196
00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:50,679
Speaker 12: was not close. In San Antonio, the Spurs one by

197
00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:53,800
Speaker 12: thirty eight over Minnesota the series title one. Stanley Cup Playoffs.

198
00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:57,280
Speaker 12: Buffalo won Game one with Montreal four to two. Anaheim

199
00:09:57,280 --> 00:09:59,800
Speaker 12: won Game two at Vegas three to one. Golden Tempo.

200
00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:02,600
Speaker 12: That thrilling one at the Kentucky Derby will not be

201
00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:05,520
Speaker 12: in the preak this they will be in the Belmont Sticks.

202
00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:07,160
Speaker 12: That's your Bloomberg Sports Update.

203
00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:12,000
Speaker 3: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak coming up after this.

204
00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:19,520
Speaker 1: Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius Exam,

205
00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:22,480
Speaker 1: and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the

206
00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:25,640
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

207
00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:27,160
Speaker 3: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.

208
00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:29,920
Speaker 2: Optimism is building in the market that the US and

209
00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:31,840
Speaker 2: Iran might be able to find a way out of

210
00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:34,720
Speaker 2: nearly ten weeks of war. This morning, Iran is said

211
00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:37,640
Speaker 2: to be reviewing a one page memo of understanding from

212
00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:41,959
Speaker 2: the US. President Trump says he has a clear bottom line.

213
00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:45,839
Speaker 4: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon because as tough as

214
00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:48,160
Speaker 4: they are, we want to keep them alive. We want

215
00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:51,120
Speaker 4: to keep all of you alive. Iran cannot have a

216
00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:52,000
Speaker 4: nuclear weapon.

217
00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:54,560
Speaker 2: And that was President Trump speaking from the Oval Office.

218
00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:58,320
Speaker 2: Joining us this morning from Dubai is Jumana Bursecchi, the

219
00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:02,800
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Middle East correspondent and anchor of Bloomberg Horizons. Jamana,

220
00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:06,080
Speaker 2: from what we understand about this memo, the nuclear weapon

221
00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:10,040
Speaker 2: issue waits till later, right, Good morning.

222
00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:11,320
Speaker 6: Yeah, good morning.

223
00:11:11,440 --> 00:11:13,880
Speaker 5: So from what we do understand, it is a memo,

224
00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:18,239
Speaker 5: It's just one page and it would entail an immediate

225
00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:20,720
Speaker 5: end to the war and then a thirty day period

226
00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:24,480
Speaker 5: in which negotiations would start around, as you mentioned, the

227
00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:28,760
Speaker 5: nuclear file in exchange for the US lifting sanctions and

228
00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:32,720
Speaker 5: unfreezing some Iranian assets. Now, again that is a toll

229
00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:36,480
Speaker 5: order to solve all of those issues, including the mutual

230
00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:39,760
Speaker 5: lifting oblockades around the Strait over a period of thirty days.

231
00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:42,160
Speaker 5: Just to give you some context, you know, jcp Away,

232
00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:47,160
Speaker 5: it took eighteen months. Prior discussions with Iran around anything

233
00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:49,840
Speaker 5: to do with nuclear has taken anything from months to years,

234
00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:53,040
Speaker 5: So a little bit I would say ambitious in terms

235
00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:55,680
Speaker 5: of timing. And then also we're sort of back to

236
00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:58,360
Speaker 5: where we were before the war even started in terms

237
00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:01,040
Speaker 5: of what the US are pushing for in these discussions

238
00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:05,960
Speaker 5: versus what Iran are willing to concede to. And here

239
00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:09,439
Speaker 5: the same points to do with uranium enrichment, what level,

240
00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:13,840
Speaker 5: zero level enrichment, low level enrichment, the timeframe of suspension,

241
00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:17,040
Speaker 5: and then the fate of that highly enriched uranium stockpile.

242
00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:20,400
Speaker 5: It's still unclear at this point whether Iran is willing

243
00:12:20,520 --> 00:12:23,880
Speaker 5: to forsake that or give that up and on what terms.

244
00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:24,840
Speaker 6: They're willing to do so.

245
00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:27,600
Speaker 5: However, what I will say is the reason the market

246
00:12:27,640 --> 00:12:31,760
Speaker 5: is reacting so positively beyond the expectation that we may

247
00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:34,600
Speaker 5: get some form of a resolution to this war, is

248
00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:36,280
Speaker 5: that at the beginning of the week we look like

249
00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:38,440
Speaker 5: we were on the brink of another round of hostilities.

250
00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:40,599
Speaker 5: We've walked away from that now and it seems like

251
00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:42,120
Speaker 5: diplomacy is back on the table.

252
00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:46,679
Speaker 2: So while we wait for Iran's response, Jumana, what could

253
00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:49,679
Speaker 2: that potential response be now that we have this situation

254
00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:51,840
Speaker 2: in the strait of horror moves where things are at

255
00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:55,400
Speaker 2: the near stand still, and you could argue that Iran

256
00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:58,280
Speaker 2: does have some leverage there in terms of trying to

257
00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:01,640
Speaker 2: enact a tolling set them to get shipping through.

258
00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:03,640
Speaker 6: That's exactly it.

259
00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:07,439
Speaker 5: So, you know, we've spoken to many people over the

260
00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:09,760
Speaker 5: course of this morning, especially people who are involved in

261
00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:14,520
Speaker 5: oil markets, and there is despite the knee jerk reaction,

262
00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:19,199
Speaker 5: there's some skepticism about how quickly we will likely see

263
00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:21,600
Speaker 5: the lifting of the blockade. And if it is true

264
00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:23,319
Speaker 5: that this is going to be a thirty day period

265
00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:25,320
Speaker 5: of negotiations, let's not forget.

266
00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:27,400
Speaker 6: That the straight if we're still closed.

267
00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:30,280
Speaker 5: Over that thirty day periods, you're talking about another four

268
00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:32,880
Speaker 5: hundred and fifty million barrels a day of oil that

269
00:13:32,920 --> 00:13:36,719
Speaker 5: will still be taken off the market. That's per RBC calculation.

270
00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:39,760
Speaker 5: So it's probably a little too soon to talk about

271
00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:43,600
Speaker 5: a full free flowing of vessels through the strait, and

272
00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:46,120
Speaker 5: it is a key point of leverage that Iran continue

273
00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:48,200
Speaker 5: to hold onto, and they know that they're holding onto

274
00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,640
Speaker 5: this at the same time, they're trying to establish a

275
00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:51,359
Speaker 5: new protocol.

276
00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:52,000
Speaker 6: Overnight.

277
00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:57,400
Speaker 5: They've put together what they're calling the Persian Gulf Straight Authority,

278
00:13:57,480 --> 00:14:00,400
Speaker 5: which is a new authority that they set up. Acquiring

279
00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:04,880
Speaker 5: vessels to submit a request in which they then would

280
00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:07,200
Speaker 5: be required to fill in a form including all sorts

281
00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:10,439
Speaker 5: of data, what cargo they have on boards, how many

282
00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:13,360
Speaker 5: the nationalities of the crew members and so forth, after

283
00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:16,040
Speaker 5: which they then would get a yes or no in

284
00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:18,120
Speaker 5: terms of their ability to transit the vessel.

285
00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:21,240
Speaker 6: So this is a protocol that Irana trying to set up.

286
00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:24,360
Speaker 5: From our own reporting, we understand that ship owners are

287
00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:27,840
Speaker 5: very unlikely to subscribe to it, in which case you're

288
00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:29,040
Speaker 5: still left in an impasse.

289
00:14:29,160 --> 00:14:31,400
Speaker 6: Very few vessels are passing through, and of.

290
00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:34,600
Speaker 2: Course This memo of understanding is coming ahead of a

291
00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:39,560
Speaker 2: key summit for President Trump in Beijing with Chinese President

292
00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,640
Speaker 2: Shi Jinping. There's been a lot of pressure as well

293
00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:46,040
Speaker 2: on the US side to get China to exert its

294
00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:49,280
Speaker 2: leverage over Iran. Is that having any impact from where

295
00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:50,880
Speaker 2: you sit in Dubai.

296
00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:52,400
Speaker 6: I think it certainly is.

297
00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:53,920
Speaker 5: And you also need to bear in mind that the

298
00:14:54,040 --> 00:14:56,920
Speaker 5: erin in Foreign Minister OurBus I actually was in Beijing yesterday.

299
00:14:56,960 --> 00:15:00,000
Speaker 5: He met with his counterpart there at China once again

300
00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:03,000
Speaker 5: pushing for a diplomatic resolution to this, and obviously they

301
00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:08,120
Speaker 5: have a vested interest in it too. Economically, they import

302
00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:11,320
Speaker 5: the lion's share of Iranian oil. That's talking about ninety

303
00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:14,080
Speaker 5: percent of Iranian oil ending up in Chinese hands. So

304
00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:16,880
Speaker 5: from their perspective, clearly they want to see things return

305
00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:21,000
Speaker 5: back to normal, but also perhaps sense the geopolitical opportunity

306
00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:25,760
Speaker 5: here to gain a one up versus the US, which

307
00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:29,440
Speaker 5: is in a situation where you know, it's very tricky

308
00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:32,520
Speaker 5: for President Trump back home, He's on a shorter time frame,

309
00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:37,720
Speaker 5: shorter timeline and the Iranians calculation is the longer this

310
00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:40,240
Speaker 5: drags on for the more the economic costs are going

311
00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:42,240
Speaker 5: to build up not just for the US but for

312
00:15:42,280 --> 00:15:43,080
Speaker 5: the rest of the world.

313
00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:47,080
Speaker 6: And so here it really is to do with, you.

314
00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:51,240
Speaker 5: Know, managing a timeline that actually works out for all

315
00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:54,440
Speaker 5: parties involved. And what we are sensing from the region

316
00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:57,360
Speaker 5: and these from countries like Saudi Arabia is they too

317
00:15:57,480 --> 00:16:00,800
Speaker 5: are pushing for a diplomatic resolution to the Nobody wants

318
00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:02,560
Speaker 5: to see the full return to hostilities.

319
00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:04,160
Speaker 6: But the question is how you.

320
00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:10,120
Speaker 5: Infect paper over those huge differences in the respective stances

321
00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:12,280
Speaker 5: of what the US wants to see out of Iran

322
00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:15,400
Speaker 5: on the nuclear file versus what Iran are willing to offer.

323
00:16:17,040 --> 00:16:20,160
Speaker 7: This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories

324
00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:23,040
Speaker 7: making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.

325
00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:25,800
Speaker 2: Look for us on your podcast feed by six am

326
00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:29,240
Speaker 2: Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen.

327
00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,040
Speaker 7: You can also listen live each morning starting at five

328
00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:34,840
Speaker 7: am Wall Street time on Bloomberg eleventh three to zero

329
00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:37,560
Speaker 7: in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington,

330
00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:41,240
Speaker 7: Bloomberg ninety two nine in Boston, and nationwide on Sirius

331
00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:43,080
Speaker 7: XM Channel one twenty one.

332
00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:46,040
Speaker 2: Plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business App

333
00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:48,840
Speaker 2: now with Apple CarPlay and Android auto interfaces.

334
00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:51,920
Speaker 7: And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's

335
00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:54,400
Speaker 7: the latest news, whenever you want it in five minutes

336
00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:57,360
Speaker 7: or less. Search Bloomberg News Now on your favorite podcast

337
00:16:57,440 --> 00:17:01,840
Speaker 7: platform to stay informed all day long. I'm Alexis Christophers.

338
00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:02,480
Speaker 3: And I'm Nathan Hager.

339
00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:04,679
Speaker 2: Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you

340
00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:07,239
Speaker 2: need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Day

341
00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:07,480
Speaker 2: Brain