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Speaker 1: This is straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up?

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Speaker 1: Straight Fire? Fam, It's me Jason McIntyre, Straight Fire for Friday, September.

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Speaker 1: And I went to bed last night, No, not totally

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Speaker 1: dejected because the Chargers lost. They did cover first half

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Speaker 1: under hit boo. Yeah, nice little gambling night for your boy.

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Speaker 1: Hope everybody was in on yesterday's podcast Picks. I did

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Speaker 1: announce them on Cowherd Show as well, but I went

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Speaker 1: to bed nervous about Justin Herbert, and I woke up

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Speaker 1: breathing a sigh of relief. According to Brandon Staley, Justin Herbert,

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Speaker 1: who was definitely dinged up, no doubt in the fourth

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Speaker 1: quarter against the Chiefs. He doesn't appear to have a

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Speaker 1: serious injury. He's dealing with something in his abdomen or ribs.

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Speaker 1: I thought initially broken ribs. I thought maybe it was

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Speaker 1: a spleen. We'll talk all about what happened to Herbert

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Speaker 1: and the chart. There's another great thriller between Chargers and

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs. I don't know about you. I came away

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Speaker 1: thinking the charges of the better side. I'll explain why shortly.

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Speaker 1: We have a phenomenal guest today. You remember him Adam

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Speaker 1: Churnoff gambling machine. He works at covers dot com. He

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Speaker 1: has his own little podcast. He it's not a little,

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Speaker 1: it's kind of big. He has his gambling thing. You

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Speaker 1: gotta listen to. This guy breaks down the games as

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Speaker 1: well as anyone we've had him on the last two seasons.

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Speaker 1: He almost cashed in the Circle Millions last year. Remember

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Speaker 1: we have we have only winners on here. Dar David

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Speaker 1: Baker obviously wanted a couple of years ago. We had

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Speaker 1: him in the past, turn off his outstanding and we

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Speaker 1: also talk a little bit about the gambling industry, which

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Speaker 1: can be sorted. Um. I don't know if you like that,

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Speaker 1: you may not like it. We call out a couple

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Speaker 1: of people whatever. And then at the end of the

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Speaker 1: podcast games that we don't go over with churn Off,

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Speaker 1: I'll give you for my best bets. And obviously listen

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Speaker 1: you guys follow me on social media because that's where

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Speaker 1: I ad picks as the weekend goes on, like, for instance,

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Speaker 1: Matt Jones, is he gonna practice today? I think I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna be on the Patriots this weekend. But he did

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Speaker 1: not practice Thursday. He had the back injury. The x

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Speaker 1: rays said negative like maybe it's an illness. Is he helped?

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Speaker 1: I ain't taking the Patriots at Brian Juliers under center.

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Speaker 1: That's faux show at any rate. Let's quickly go back

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Speaker 1: to Chargers four Chiefs twenty seven. Just an outstanding game

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Speaker 1: all around. I don't mind admitting I was openly rooting Chargers.

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Speaker 1: Went to the kids back to school night and I'm

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Speaker 1: watching the game on Amazon. I saw some people had

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Speaker 1: issues streaming the game. I had none. I was watching

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Speaker 1: on my phone, totally clear, and we had on the

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Speaker 1: television as well when I was at home. But outstanding game. A.

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Speaker 1: Chiefs were in control throughout. I'll start, I'm sorry Chargers

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Speaker 1: were in control throughout until the fourth quarter when they

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Speaker 1: were outscored thirteen nothing. The pick six will get to

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Speaker 1: Mike takeaway from the Chiefs. I know Mahomes looked incredible

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Speaker 1: last week against a beat up Arizona secondary. He had

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Speaker 1: five touchdowns. My son started in fantasy. Who who cares

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Speaker 1: about Tyreek Hill? This was a game for the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: where they missed Tyreek Hill. There's no way around that.

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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, he I know the stat lines, has two

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Speaker 1: thirty five two touchdowns. He did not have a great game.

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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes was not extraordinary, was not best quarterback in

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Speaker 1: the league. He I still say it's about between Mahomes,

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Speaker 1: Herbert and then Alan for the three best quarterbacks in

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Speaker 1: the league. But Mahomes did not overwhelm you on Thursday

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Speaker 1: Night football. He was good. But I also saw the

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Speaker 1: stat where they had four three and ounce in the

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Speaker 1: first half and that's never happened at Mahomes at a

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Speaker 1: home game in case since he's been the starter there. Like,

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Speaker 1: he was not great. They missed Tyreek Hill folks, and

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Speaker 1: Travis Kelsey was kind of bottled up by Derwin James.

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Speaker 1: Derwan James did pile driver him inside the five. That

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Speaker 1: was crazy play. And you know Mahomes is out here.

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Speaker 1: MVS gets seven targets, catches two of them. Nicole Hardman

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Speaker 1: had three catches. Justin Watson someone who I got to

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Speaker 1: admit I was not familiar with. He had basically the

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Speaker 1: play of the night offensively for Casey Well outside of

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Speaker 1: the early Mahomes touchdown pass, which is great. But Justin

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Speaker 1: Watson out of pen a fifth round pick from eighteen,

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Speaker 1: he's kind of bounced around the league. He uh Tampa

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Speaker 1: and now into Casey and he played sparingly in Tampa.

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Speaker 1: Um caught actually did not. I'm sorry. He played in

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Speaker 1: Tampa nineteen and twenty did not play in twenty one.

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Speaker 1: He's back with the Chiefs. So after being out of

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Speaker 1: football for a year, Justin Watson comes in. All he

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Speaker 1: did because Hardman left briefly with an injury. All watch

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Speaker 1: Justin Watson did six two fifteen. White guy. And I

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Speaker 1: say that because after the game, Patrick Mahomes joked, I

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Speaker 1: asked coach how fast he was alluding to because he's

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Speaker 1: a white guy. I mean, Justin Watson torched J. C. Jackson,

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Speaker 1: spun him around. Jackson's coming off the injury, not got

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Speaker 1: spun around. And you could tell Jackson has that closing

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Speaker 1: speed of like a shark. You could just see him

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Speaker 1: closing like he was gonna get the pick, and Mahomes

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Speaker 1: put in a per spot. Watson catches a touchdown. But

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Speaker 1: to the point about Mahomes, like the Kansas City Chiefs

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Speaker 1: offense was utterly dominant against a bad Arizona team that

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Speaker 1: had a bad game plan. It blitz the hell out

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Speaker 1: of Patrick Mahomes. And you could do that if you've

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Speaker 1: got good cornerbacks. But the move on Mahomes, keep the

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Speaker 1: safeties deep, get home with four and lock up everybody else.

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Speaker 1: Now with Tyreek Hill, that's tough because Tyree Hill is

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Speaker 1: the cheat code. They don't have a cheat code. And

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Speaker 1: Mac was getting home, Bosa was getting home. It looks

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Speaker 1: like according to one box score, they only hit him

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Speaker 1: five times, but it appeared to be more. They were

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Speaker 1: moving him off his spot and Mahomes was rattled and

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Speaker 1: he was settling for a lot of checkdown stuff. That

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Speaker 1: t d to Watson was a bomb other than that

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Speaker 1: one thirty yard or Tomkole Hardman and a twenty one

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Speaker 1: yard I was more of a catch and run to

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Speaker 1: Clyde Edwards Hilaire again like they were not. That offense

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Speaker 1: was not incredible. This is probably not an offense that

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Speaker 1: wins the game, if not for a Justin Herbert's pick

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Speaker 1: six and be Justin Herbert getting injured late in the game.

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Speaker 1: I know everybody wants to blame Herbert. That's fine. Yes,

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Speaker 1: I've watched the video Gerald Everett, who Herbert was throwing

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Speaker 1: two on the goal line. If you've seen it, Everett

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Speaker 1: caught two passes in a row. He was gassed after

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Speaker 1: the second catch. He goes down like inside the I

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Speaker 1: don't know, six yard line or whatever, and he signals

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Speaker 1: to the sideline, come get me, come get me. But

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Speaker 1: they were going tempo and they just basically said stay

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Speaker 1: in the game. Herbert, under pressure kind of does a

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Speaker 1: sidearm throw. Everett was a little slow finding where the

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Speaker 1: ball was. Again, I put more on the pressure than

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Speaker 1: her than Everett. But because fifty came almost unmolested up

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Speaker 1: the middle and Herbert kind of slung it, picked off,

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Speaker 1: goes the other way for a touchdown. Here's the interesting thing.

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Speaker 1: The pressure came up the middle. And this is why

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Speaker 1: my big takeaway as the Chargers were a better team

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Speaker 1: Thursday night, and I actually think they could compete with

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs in a playoff game. I think they could,

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Speaker 1: certainly when they've proven that in their five meetings. They've

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Speaker 1: played Kansas City as well as anybody. They have the

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Speaker 1: passports to get home. Samuel and Jackson are the corners

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Speaker 1: you need. This has gone basically unnoticed overnight. Kansas City

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Speaker 1: should have lost to the Chargers, and the Chargers are

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Speaker 1: down their number one receiver, Keenan Allen, and during the

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Speaker 1: game two offensive lineman went down their center the All

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Speaker 1: Pro Linsley knee injury and the right tackle Pipkins. What

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Speaker 1: happened more in the second half that caused the Chargers

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Speaker 1: to not get any points in the fourth quarter, Well,

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Speaker 1: the pressure up the middle, specifically, Herbert gets drilled. Who

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Speaker 1: knows what the injury is. Hopefully it's not massively significant

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Speaker 1: and he's gonna be out a couple of weeks. It

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Speaker 1: was very clear to me that he was more than winded.

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Speaker 1: The guy essentially could not run on like a third

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Speaker 1: and four. He could have easily run for it. He

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Speaker 1: takes two steps and just like chucks it into the

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Speaker 1: ground because he didn't have the arms. Something was wrong.

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Speaker 1: And when you see that, I know a lot of

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Speaker 1: people on social media were like, get about of the game?

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Speaker 1: Get about no just in Herbert's a warrior. The guy's

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Speaker 1: a freaking uh six five, two hundred thirty pound robot.

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Speaker 1: You cannot take him. He's like the terminator. He is

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Speaker 1: a machine. And what does he do? Stays in the game,

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Speaker 1: converts the fourth down covered in a money play over

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Speaker 1: the middle of fourth down, and then throws a fourth

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Speaker 1: down touchdown pass to get us the cover. Herbert is money, folks,

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Speaker 1: This guy is so freaking good. And you give me

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Speaker 1: Keenan Allen, you give me those two offensive linemen. Chargers

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Speaker 1: win that game. That Chargers defense again. J C. Jackson's

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Speaker 1: first game back with the team, I thought of Sa

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Speaker 1: Sante sat Peel was was good. And I know some

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Speaker 1: people are gonna get upset that I'm not talking about

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Speaker 1: all the bad whistles. And apparently two interceptions by the

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Speaker 1: Chargers soon have stood. One they were offsetting flags. Another

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Speaker 1: was a pretty blatant missed offensive pass interference on the

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Speaker 1: Chief's wide receiver passed was intercepted, and you know you're

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Speaker 1: gonna get some unlucky calls it happens. I'm not blaming that.

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Speaker 1: This is just an unlucky ending to the Chargers. Now

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Speaker 1: my a little happier because they covered. Yeah, you're you're

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Speaker 1: damn right, Am, And I will wrap up before we

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Speaker 1: get to Adam turn off with this prime time unders

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Speaker 1: four and Oh Bill's rams to open the season. Sunday

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Speaker 1: Night football Bucks Cowboys, and I think that was nineteen three,

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Speaker 1: Monday Night football, Seattle. Denver got a little lucky. They're

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Speaker 1: Denver getting stuck on the one yard line and now

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Speaker 1: Chargers chiefs um I think we're gonna get their Sunday

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Speaker 1: with Bears struggling against the Packers. Now, yes, I know,

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Speaker 1: there was like a forty five thirty freakish game last

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Speaker 1: year that ain't happening. I don't think so. At least,

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Speaker 1: this feels like a thirty to ten beat down for

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Speaker 1: the Bears. I think they are big time trouble against

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Speaker 1: the Packers. And then the question is what about Monday

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Speaker 1: Bills Titans. You're gonna get in front of that Bill's

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Speaker 1: train and then Vikings Eagles one of the highest totals

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Speaker 1: of the week. Um, we'll get to that obviously Monday.

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Speaker 1: There's two games Monday night. But for now, let's get

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Speaker 1: to our guest, Adam Churnoff of covers dot Com. Jason

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Speaker 1: likes to think he knows everything when it comes to sports.

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Speaker 1: I know what sports fans want, but for everything he doesn't.

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Speaker 1: He knows a guy who does. Let's just say I

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Speaker 1: know a guy who knows a guy who knows another guy.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's welcome into straight fire. A popular guest

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Speaker 1: in these waters. He is just a gambling savant. You

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Speaker 1: guys loved his story two years ago. The Canadian who

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Speaker 1: went to I don't. I want to say Guatemala, but

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Speaker 1: that's not it. It's like Costa Rica some parts unknown

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Speaker 1: and he, you know, um was was in the salt mines.

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Speaker 1: They're doing gambling and now he's a big dog. He's

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Speaker 1: signed with covers. Adam, turn off, Adam. How you doing

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Speaker 1: man too? You have to reference two years ago? What

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Speaker 1: happened to invite back last year? Didn't you were on

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Speaker 1: last year? To right? No, you were on? I think

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Speaker 1: oh I got I didn't get the invitation, not high

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Speaker 1: class no no, no, no, no, I think you were

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Speaker 1: on last year. But what what? What country was it

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Speaker 1: in Central America where you were? Where was it? South America?

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Speaker 1: Dominican Republic? First Bahamas, Second Columbia third man Columbia. Wow,

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Speaker 1: that's a place I don't want to go, although I've

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Speaker 1: had a bunch of friends on Instagram post stuff from

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Speaker 1: median I guess that's a cool place to go because

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Speaker 1: of Narcos. Huh. Lived there for four years and it's

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Speaker 1: still my favorite place that I've been on Earth. I

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Speaker 1: love the city to death. Sketchy at all or no? No,

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Speaker 1: I mean you can find whatever you want in the

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Speaker 1: same way you can find whatever you want in New

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Speaker 1: York and l A and Miami. But um in in

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Speaker 1: general for knowing where to go, No, not at all.

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Speaker 1: All right, so let's start with this. Adam obviously has

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Speaker 1: been on both sides of the county. He's a big gambler.

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Speaker 1: He has this telegram thing that I joined where he

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Speaker 1: post pics. So Adam one of the Listen, some people

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Speaker 1: really want me to go in on the gambling community

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Speaker 1: because they it kind of sucks. Um people just kind

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Speaker 1: of loading numbers like on a Tuesday or on a

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Speaker 1: Saturday saying yeah, I bet this number, but it's been

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Speaker 1: gone for five days. Like what value is that? Um,

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Speaker 1: you had a good strategy. You started this telegram thing

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Speaker 1: where you download the app and as soon as your play,

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Speaker 1: as soon as you make the bet, it goes into

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Speaker 1: the app. Right, that's the idea. Yeah, it was a

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Speaker 1: case where I tried text. I tried Twitter last year,

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Speaker 1: which was a massive failure. A lot of different avenues.

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Speaker 1: This works best because if I'm betting something. The last

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Speaker 1: couple of seasons, there's been varying levels of movement immediately

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Speaker 1: after it gets bet. This year, it's kind of to

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Speaker 1: the extreme. After the success that happened last year. It's

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Speaker 1: probably gonna settle down. But we needed something to deliver

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Speaker 1: the bets in the right apps immediately to everybody. That's

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Speaker 1: what telegram does, and it's so far been quite successful

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Speaker 1: in delivering things on time at a fair price for

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Speaker 1: everybody reading it. Okay, So now is that a humble

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Speaker 1: brag that when you make a bet the lines tend

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Speaker 1: to move? Or are you with like a syndicate that

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Speaker 1: is dropping, you know, fifty dollars on a Tuesday and

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Speaker 1: moving the line. No, in an ideal world, nothing would

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Speaker 1: move when I bet it. Uh, nothing would move when

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Speaker 1: I send it out. That would be the ideal world.

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Speaker 1: People tend to look at it and say, wow, that's incredible.

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Speaker 1: The line is moving, the odds are changing from No

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Speaker 1: matter what perspective you look at it as a better

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Speaker 1: or somebody who's creating content and giving out bets and picks,

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Speaker 1: you don't want it to move because if you're better,

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Speaker 1: then you could bet more at the same odds that

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Speaker 1: you liked. And if you're somebody who does content, you

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Speaker 1: can send it out to everybody. They can bet the

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Speaker 1: same price and everything is fair for the people getting it. Fortunately,

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Speaker 1: that's not how betting works. So while it kind of

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Speaker 1: is somewhat of a validation to what I'm doing having

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Speaker 1: an impact, it kind of creates some problems too, Right,

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Speaker 1: So we're recording this on Thursday afternoon, and obviously you

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Speaker 1: know we're both in these contests and you're betting during

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Speaker 1: the week and parlays and teasers and totals. Well maybe

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Speaker 1: you don't do teasers. I don't know. But it's one

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Speaker 1: of the weird things where the people who want the

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Speaker 1: picks and are kind of smart know how to seek

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Speaker 1: them out from guys like Adam. I'm not gonna pet

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Speaker 1: myself on the back, but I've been doing this long

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Speaker 1: enough people know how to find him. But there's also

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Speaker 1: a lot of these hucksters out there who are doing Hey,

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Speaker 1: I'm a random dude who bets a lot, and I've

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Speaker 1: somehow figured out the TikTok algorithm. Follow me and you're

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Speaker 1: seeing these bets. Somebody, what are my buddies? Sent it

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Speaker 1: to me? At him and it's I probably shouldn't call

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Speaker 1: this guy out. All I know is his name is Trent.

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Speaker 1: I've never seen him or heard about him, and and

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Speaker 1: they're like, look at this guy, he's got all these

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Speaker 1: dumb young twenty one year old following his bets and

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Speaker 1: there he's just losing every single bet and it's really dumb,

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Speaker 1: like seventeen parlays And now, Adam, how do we as

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Speaker 1: a community help everybody else get smarter and avoid the

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Speaker 1: idiots who have kind of mastered the algorithm because you know,

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Speaker 1: if you solve the Google algorithm or TikTok or whatever,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna get high up and people who are just

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Speaker 1: googling stuff, we're gonna find you. Yeah. I mean, this

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Speaker 1: is a big question, but it starts it's what your

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Speaker 1: expectations should be as somebody looking for picks, are looking

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Speaker 1: to consume betting content, if that is what you're looking for,

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Speaker 1: which unfortunately a lot of people are, because they want

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Speaker 1: to have a sense of community, They want to be

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Speaker 1: betting with someone, They want to have some sort of

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Speaker 1: like shared involvement or blame or success together. That's why

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Speaker 1: all of that is still so popular and continuing to grow,

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Speaker 1: because that's what people tend to want. But the fact is,

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Speaker 1: if somebody is giving out parlays with several legs and

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Speaker 1: they're affiliated with a sports book, in which case they're

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Speaker 1: making revenue off the back end of people betting at

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Speaker 1: that sports books on their parlays. It's a massive conflict

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Speaker 1: of interest. Um so, as somebody who wants to consume it,

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Speaker 1: you have to understand what you're getting into. But a

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Speaker 1: good common example you drive around I'm Canadian, I go

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Speaker 1: to the States a lot, and the one thing that

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Speaker 1: stands out to me is the lawyer billboards in like

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Speaker 1: a place like Las Vegas. What have you? You see

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Speaker 1: all the commercials and you're like, this is ridiculous, how

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Speaker 1: can anyone fall into this? But the fact is that

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Speaker 1: people don't know any better and they you see all

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Speaker 1: the same things. So it happens in every industry. It's

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Speaker 1: not just betting. But you really have to know what

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Speaker 1: is good and bad content and have expectations around it.

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Speaker 1: And quite frank, if you if that's all you want,

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Speaker 1: you just want that entertainment, you don't care, and you

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Speaker 1: want to be a part of it. You probably enjoy

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Speaker 1: it quite a bit, which is why numbers for those

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Speaker 1: things are so big. But I certainly don't agree with

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Speaker 1: a lot of it. You know, it's weird. You you

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Speaker 1: just mentioned like a sense of community and people are like,

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Speaker 1: oh Joe, Bob over here has to five thousand people

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Speaker 1: writing this parlor. Let's all get in it together for

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Speaker 1: the sweat. Like I gotta be honest, that's never appealed

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Speaker 1: to me. I just want to win and homework. I

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Speaker 1: don't understand that. What do you think that stems from.

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Speaker 1: That's just the state of things in the world right

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Speaker 1: now and what people want. There was a very popular

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Speaker 1: radio show host affiliated with the sports book for the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl. He had a four game or four leg mate. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: we talked about it. I think two hundred and sixty

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Speaker 1: people bet with them. So there you go. So there's

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Speaker 1: two point six million dollars in turnover. By the way,

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Speaker 1: how did it do? It didn't win? That's shocker. I'm stunned.

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Speaker 1: But I'm not bashing McAfee. I'm sure he you know,

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Speaker 1: he knows a lot about football. He played the dance sport.

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Speaker 1: But of course you know anything about gambling and numbers

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Speaker 1: and lines in the market. I don't know. But the

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Speaker 1: fact is that sports books don't necessarily want people that

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Speaker 1: have that because it doesn't appeal to the masses. People

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Speaker 1: don't want to be price sensitive. They want to win

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Speaker 1: a lot of money right now. Tonight, and you mentioned

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Speaker 1: trans for example, he has thousands of people that view

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Speaker 1: his streams, and it's it's entertaining for these people that

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Speaker 1: are now getting into betting and they're younger. They put

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Speaker 1: together the big parlay, they try to have this big payout,

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Speaker 1: they get the instant satisfaction within two or three hours.

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Speaker 1: That's a lot more appealing to the average better who's

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Speaker 1: maybe just starting or just getting into it. Then saying, look,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna win of the time, if you're really, really good,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna bet a couple whatever, hundred thousand, however much

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Speaker 1: you want to stake per game, and you're gonna lose

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Speaker 1: almost as much as you win, but at the end

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Speaker 1: of the year you'll be had a little bit. That's

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Speaker 1: not nearly his appealing to a lot of people that

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Speaker 1: just want the fund right now, and that's what people

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Speaker 1: are selling and they're doing well with it. Again, I

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Speaker 1: don't agree with it, but yeah, is it like is

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Speaker 1: it like Rounders where the one guy is just grinding

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Speaker 1: out a profit and um, what's his name, Edward Norton

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Speaker 1: just kind of making fun of him. Yeah, it's the

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Speaker 1: best betters in the world will hit over the course

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Speaker 1: of an NFL season somewhere between fifty five and eight

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Speaker 1: percent of their bets at minus one ten on sides

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Speaker 1: and totals, and that's that's what you strive for. But

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Speaker 1: when you're someone who's making content and giving up picks,

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Speaker 1: and you're saying we're gonna win fifty five bets and

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Speaker 1: lose forty five and the next hundred, to the person

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Speaker 1: who's trying to get away and watch a game for

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Speaker 1: three hours as their enjoyment of the week, that it's

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Speaker 1: not very appealing. And so the reality of what it

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Speaker 1: takes to be a great, better and successful and a

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Speaker 1: professional is incredibly hard to sell when it's coupled with

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Speaker 1: this sort of juxtaposition of let's make a whole bunch

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Speaker 1: of money today, and if we don't, you're not gonna

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Speaker 1: lose that much either, but it'll be fun while you

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Speaker 1: watch it. That's that's where people are going. That's unfortunate

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Speaker 1: but true. All right, let's try to educate a little bit,

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Speaker 1: um Adam. Let's look at week two. Obviously, once people

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Speaker 1: follow your telegram, they'll see some picks you already have.

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Speaker 1: But if you're looking at the lines now again we're

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Speaker 1: recording this Thursday, lines have moved. Um, I'll just point

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Speaker 1: out one that I see is very curious. So the

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Speaker 1: Niners losing the slop to Chicago, they go home, everybody

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Speaker 1: expects him to roll, And now Kittle looks like he's

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Speaker 1: gonna be out again, and they're calling for more rain

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Speaker 1: San Francisco, second straight week. I don't know if you've

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Speaker 1: seen this weather report that's coming out, and the line

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Speaker 1: is now I think it was ten on Tuesday. I

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Speaker 1: see eight and a half. What are you to make

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Speaker 1: of this game in the line? Okay, well let's start

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Speaker 1: with Kittle. So something every listing should think about if

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Speaker 1: they're betting on NFL or paying attention to the line movement,

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Speaker 1: or maybe you progress to that stage in the future. Um,

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Speaker 1: there's things that are priced in and things that are

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Speaker 1: not priced in. And what that means is when the

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Speaker 1: line opens early in the week, it's assuming all of

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Speaker 1: the available information at the time, as well as potentially

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Speaker 1: what is to come. I was under the impression from

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Speaker 1: everything that happened last week the Kittle was very unlikely

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Speaker 1: to play in this game. Um, there was never an

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Speaker 1: indication that he would necessarily be ready until he was.

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Speaker 1: So when I looked at that number early in the week.

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Speaker 1: I was quite surprised to see it adjusted down, as

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Speaker 1: I was very surprised when the news came out that

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Speaker 1: he didn't practice for a second in a row. Seattle.

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Speaker 1: Money continued to come in because I assumed, and maybe

404
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Speaker 1: it's right or wrong, but this is why I'm making

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Speaker 1: my bet that that news was priced into the first line,

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Speaker 1: not expecting him to play. So I like San Francisco

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Speaker 1: and I would even lay it at minus ten. I

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Speaker 1: think that Chicago really benefited from the weather on defense

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Speaker 1: against um against the Niners last week, and it really

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Speaker 1: made this Niners offense look a lot worse than it

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Speaker 1: could have been. The fact is the Niners outgained the

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Speaker 1: Bears by a hundred thirty yards. They outgained them by

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Speaker 1: a yard and a half per play. The Niners were

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Speaker 1: moving the football. It was a couple of bad turnovers

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Speaker 1: that were caused by weather that led to the Niners

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Speaker 1: offense only putting up ten points. So now it's at

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Speaker 1: home against the Seattle team we all watch Monday night.

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Speaker 1: Where were the Seahawks benefiting? It was the Broncos turning

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Speaker 1: the ball over inside the one Denver moved the football

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Speaker 1: up and down the field, and the Seattle team they

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Speaker 1: only punted once the average board in forty yards per drive,

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Speaker 1: And so you get this kind of like situation where

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Speaker 1: you have the Seahawks who got really lucky and benefited

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Speaker 1: from a lot of things in Week one that made

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Speaker 1: them look better. Then you have the Niners, who got

426
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,280
Speaker 1: really unlucky with a lot of things made them look

427
00:21:57,320 --> 00:22:00,679
Speaker 1: a lot worse. And it really bit mean Seattle in

428
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:03,600
Speaker 1: Chicago preseason two weeks ago. These were two of the

429
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:06,200
Speaker 1: lowest rated teams in the league, so not a huge difference.

430
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,520
Speaker 1: I think this number is awfully short, and that's a

431
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:11,720
Speaker 1: crazy thing to say with the big number here at ten,

432
00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:15,199
Speaker 1: But I'm really happy to late. Are you Do you

433
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:18,640
Speaker 1: think this is public money driving the number down? It's

434
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:20,879
Speaker 1: probably a little early for that to be the case,

435
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,879
Speaker 1: um on Thursday, But I think it's a combination of

436
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:27,400
Speaker 1: books just moving in reaction to the kill news, which

437
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:30,159
Speaker 1: has been kind of common we've seen throughout the preseason

438
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,679
Speaker 1: and last week as well. There's like this known news.

439
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:36,440
Speaker 1: Once it's sort of made official by a reporter, we

440
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:39,160
Speaker 1: see the market react. Um. So I think I think

441
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,440
Speaker 1: it's moving a lot on air in response to the injury.

442
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 1: But I do think they were likely people out there

443
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:46,680
Speaker 1: that were intrigued with Seattle at ten once it got

444
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,119
Speaker 1: that high. Um, So I think it's a combo of both.

445
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in

446
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:55,400
Speaker 1: the nation. Catch all of our shows at Fox Sports

447
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 1: Radio dot com and within the I Heart Radio app

448
00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:02,200
Speaker 1: search f s R to listen live forgetting the number

449
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 1: for a second and just taking into account, Seattle just

450
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 1: won the Super Bowl. You saw the way they celebrated

451
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,880
Speaker 1: on Monday. Players are all taking jabs at Russell Wilson.

452
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,480
Speaker 1: Um Pete Carroll has has kind of dominated Kyle shann

453
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:15,000
Speaker 1: And in the last four meetings of four and oh

454
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:16,959
Speaker 1: against him. I think he's won five of six. I

455
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,959
Speaker 1: know that some of that was Russell Wilson, But you know,

456
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,239
Speaker 1: are we supposed to divisional matchup? Is there is there

457
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,639
Speaker 1: a case for Seattle? But by the way, no, Jamal Adams,

458
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,080
Speaker 1: I know you're a Jets fan. Um, he's been pretty

459
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 1: terrible in Seattle, but he's out the secondary already stinks

460
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:33,959
Speaker 1: like this should be a blowout, right, but is there

461
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:37,800
Speaker 1: a case for Seattle? I think you touched on something

462
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,120
Speaker 1: important that was as big of a game as Seattle

463
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:43,639
Speaker 1: will play all season. They had weeks going into that

464
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 1: one knowing that it was going to be that impactful.

465
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 1: And what stood up to me was post game and

466
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,800
Speaker 1: then Monday morning, every single guy that was interviewed had

467
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:54,879
Speaker 1: a comment about how crazy the atmosphere was, how it

468
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,439
Speaker 1: kept them going, how they haven't seen that stadium that

469
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:01,120
Speaker 1: loud in years. That was rething to that team, and

470
00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 1: we used to this sort of moniker like the team

471
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:07,199
Speaker 1: won their super Bowl. That was That was it for

472
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 1: Seattle in week one. So I mean short week to

473
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:13,560
Speaker 1: get up and prepare going on the roads for San Francisco. Um,

474
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:17,040
Speaker 1: it's tough. The defense for Seattle, I just think looked

475
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 1: so much better than they were based on the scoreboard.

476
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:24,160
Speaker 1: The only case that you can really make is saying, look,

477
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,360
Speaker 1: it's Trey Lance in his fourth start in a game

478
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:29,639
Speaker 1: that might include weather, don QB and his college career.

479
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:33,639
Speaker 1: Why should he be laying ten points in the NFL

480
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:37,160
Speaker 1: against the professional team. That's the case. Um. I think

481
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 1: the Niners play around that, But that's the case you

482
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:42,119
Speaker 1: can make for Seattle. So there are some other double

483
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 1: digit games, Adam, I everybody who's gambles knows you can't

484
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,440
Speaker 1: win long term betting on double digit favorites, But there's

485
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:52,480
Speaker 1: a couple of tasty ones. I mean, Denver should throttle Seattle.

486
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:56,960
Speaker 1: Buffalo I think kind of murders Tennessee. Um, well, what

487
00:24:57,000 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 1: was the and the Rams Falcons is kind of interesting

488
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,400
Speaker 1: because the Rams injury and there the way they got

489
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:05,199
Speaker 1: destroyed at the line of scrimmage. Buffalo I think I

490
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,360
Speaker 1: saw blitzed once the entire game. Yet all they did

491
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:11,120
Speaker 1: was murder Stafford in the pocket and incomes Atlanta, which

492
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 1: blitz I think second most of any team last week

493
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 1: or something like that. Um, so, yeah, is Atlanta gonna

494
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:19,679
Speaker 1: be a little frisky here or do you buy it

495
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:22,399
Speaker 1: to hey McVeigh off of a loss a t s

496
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:24,280
Speaker 1: you know, one of those trends or whatever. So let's

497
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 1: put some context to the number. So, since nine double

498
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:31,640
Speaker 1: digit favorites in the NFL have covered the spread at

499
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:35,199
Speaker 1: a fifty point one rate, and so if you just

500
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:40,439
Speaker 1: blindly bet every single double digit favorite for the last

501
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,919
Speaker 1: what is that forty years, almost um you would be

502
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:47,160
Speaker 1: you'd be about a percent below break even. So that's

503
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 1: how fine the margins are within the NFL. Uh the

504
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:54,959
Speaker 1: Rams game, I think is really interesting. You nailed that perfectly. Uh,

505
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 1: the Rams against the Bills. The Bills didn't blitz once.

506
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford is the best quarterback in the NFL over

507
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 1: the last two seasons. When facing the blitz, he tears

508
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 1: it apart. The Bills just they noticed that. They said,

509
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:09,959
Speaker 1: we're not gonna blitz you, but they still got a

510
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,919
Speaker 1: ton of pressure on him with that defensive front. The

511
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,479
Speaker 1: Falcons defensive front is one of the worst in the NFL,

512
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:19,919
Speaker 1: and they had the blitz snaps to generate a modest

513
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,959
Speaker 1: amount of pressure on Jamis Winston. So now you have

514
00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 1: the Rams offense with extra time off of that home

515
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 1: loss to prepare for the Falcons defense that cannot do

516
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 1: what the Bills did to make the Rams look as

517
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:36,640
Speaker 1: bad as they did on offense in the season opener.

518
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 1: So it is a drastically different matchup that I think

519
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 1: boats really well for the Rams offense this week interesting.

520
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,160
Speaker 1: So a double digit favors you kind of lean toward

521
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:48,480
Speaker 1: the Rams. What about that Denver Houston game. I know

522
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:50,919
Speaker 1: Denver's on a short week, Houston, if you look at

523
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:53,480
Speaker 1: that box score and you do a good box score breakdown,

524
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 1: on Sundays on on social media, Houston gave up like

525
00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:58,879
Speaker 1: five yards of offense. They I think they kind of

526
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,199
Speaker 1: tried to park the bus in the third quarter. They

527
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:03,119
Speaker 1: just stopped running plays. I don't know what happened to

528
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 1: Davis Mills. And now you face a better Denver defense

529
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 1: I think than the Colts, and you face ad better

530
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 1: offense I think than the Colts. Russell Wilson quote unquote

531
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:15,280
Speaker 1: motivated all that nonsense, then for at the altitude that

532
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 1: should be a bloodbath, right, Broncos have been very good

533
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:21,199
Speaker 1: at home first two weeks of the season. That's a

534
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:24,119
Speaker 1: really tough environment to go into. But also there's a

535
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 1: conditioning element that's really real. You're right. The Texans north

536
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 1: of five d yards conceded to the Colts only gave

537
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 1: up twenty points. If there's anything that someone can take

538
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 1: away from this episode that they can find value in

539
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:42,199
Speaker 1: is looking the rest of the season, find spots where

540
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:46,480
Speaker 1: the scoreboard and the box score do not align, because

541
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 1: that's where you're gonna find value in the betting market.

542
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 1: And so this, to me, the only thing that's holding

543
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 1: me off of Denver. First time head coach made his

544
00:27:56,840 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 1: debut same with the offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, and quarterback.

545
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 1: The only team in two that has a new person

546
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 1: in each of those roles is the Denver Broncos. And

547
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 1: they looked they moved to football very well, but it

548
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 1: was sloppy on Monday night football, and so are they

549
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,440
Speaker 1: able to correct that on a short week? How does

550
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 1: this look the second time around? To me, I actually

551
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 1: think the total is a better way to look at um,

552
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 1: specifically the over, because here's a interesting thing to keep

553
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 1: an eye on the Houston Texans last year, we're on

554
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 1: a snap to snap basis, the twenty one quickest team

555
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:40,080
Speaker 1: in the league. Pace is very important when it comes

556
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 1: to totals. In Week one, despite leading the Colts for

557
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:47,760
Speaker 1: more than forty minutes, the Texans were the fourth fastest

558
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 1: team in Week one, and that's important because that's a

559
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:55,080
Speaker 1: very drastic shift. And this is a Houston team. For

560
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 1: the second week in a row, we've seen the total

561
00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 1: mid forties, which is well below average. So if they're

562
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 1: gonna play that fast while they're trailing, or if they're

563
00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 1: while they're leading, what does it look like when they're trailing.

564
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:09,239
Speaker 1: It's the opposite scenario where usually teams play quicker as is.

565
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 1: So if you're looking at this total where the Broncos

566
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:13,600
Speaker 1: offense is going to be leading the way as a

567
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 1: ten point favorite, but you get the Texans who are

568
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 1: gonna play really fast, that's a really good thing for

569
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 1: betting and over, so at at forty five and a half,

570
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 1: I think the over is worth a look. Here. Interesting, Um,

571
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay is we're not seeing a three against New

572
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 1: Orleans and I really wanted that three. I was hoping

573
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 1: for it in the contest, but no, And last year

574
00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 1: this number was Tampa by four and then Tampa at

575
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 1: home by eleven and a half and they obviously lost

576
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 1: both games. Um, why are we not see? Is it

577
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 1: the injury report? Maybe what's going on with that That

578
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 1: line there was early in the week, But you're right,

579
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 1: the injury report for Tampa Bay is taking a pretty

580
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 1: significant shift. So Mike Evans didn't practice today, Russell Gage

581
00:29:56,560 --> 00:30:00,040
Speaker 1: was limited, Julio Jones was this surprise pop up on

582
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 1: the injury report. Chris Godwin is not going to play.

583
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 1: I'm running out of wide receivers on the Buccaneers to

584
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 1: name here. And then you add in the left tackle

585
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 1: Donovan Smith who went down against Dallas he's not practicing either.

586
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:14,480
Speaker 1: They already have issues at Left Garden Center. All of

587
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 1: a sudden, the injury report awfully long for Tampa Bay.

588
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:21,360
Speaker 1: So that's why it's come off of the three. Um

589
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 1: any other games that jump out at you by the way,

590
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 1: you are in the contest, or you just in Survivor,

591
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 1: no other in Survivor thanks to the Texans and Brian

592
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 1: dave Ball's pardon me and Brian daball, Wait a minute,

593
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 1: wait a minute, you had to t two entries of

594
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:39,240
Speaker 1: both lost. No. I had my one entry on Tennessee,

595
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 1: which I thought was clever swerving the other big favorites,

596
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 1: and then the two pointer does me in. Oh that's stings.

597
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 1: Um not good. So we'll quickly look at and and

598
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 1: we had a guest on last week who mentioned Survivor Grid,

599
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:56,480
Speaker 1: which is crazy. I played Survivor for a long time.

600
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 1: I've actually want a couple. I never knew Survivor Grid existed.

601
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 1: Do you look? Is it too early to look ahead

602
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 1: and say, well, wait a second, wait a second. Green

603
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 1: Bay host the Jets in week six. Don't burn the

604
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:11,960
Speaker 1: Packers this week? Is it too early for that stuff? Probably?

605
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 1: But when look, this is where I really struggle. And

606
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 1: I know people who just they max out all the

607
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 1: contest entries. They have the just end of the world

608
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 1: strategy that they put into it every week. I'm not

609
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:29,680
Speaker 1: the best contest player. I was very close to moneying

610
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 1: in the circum Millions last year. Had a really good year.

611
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 1: When it comes to the Survivors stuff, it is there's

612
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,040
Speaker 1: a lot of variants that goes with it. And so

613
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 1: I mean, you can look at that, you can plan

614
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 1: it out. I find when I do that personally, it

615
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 1: leads me to teams that I may not want to

616
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 1: back or I'm not confident. And when it gets to

617
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 1: the end of year stuff and you have the holiday

618
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 1: games and Thanksgiving and Christmas and yeah I don't then

619
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:59,480
Speaker 1: it's then it's something. But yeah it's tough. Wait, So

620
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 1: I I listen to your pod, and I know you

621
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:05,680
Speaker 1: did not like the Titans this season. Why Why did

622
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 1: why roll with him in Survivor? Because I tried to

623
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 1: get too cute. There's a perfect example. There's there's a

624
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 1: perfect example. But I will say the second option I

625
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 1: had was the Cincinnati Bengals. So I wasn't getting through

626
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 1: Week one either way. I I have some buddies who

627
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 1: were on the Bengals. UM, let's quickly talk Giants Titans. UM.

628
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 1: I have an irrational I was on the Giants last

629
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 1: week in the contest, and I got a little lucky there.

630
00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 1: I think Carolina goes in and and this is a

631
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:36,480
Speaker 1: spot for the Panthers. But I get a little skittish

632
00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:39,320
Speaker 1: Matt Rule against Brian Dable. I know we're playing a number,

633
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 1: not a coaching, but Matt Rule ain't a good coach. Yeah,

634
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 1: it's it's tough to trust um. This is it's kind

635
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 1: of crazy to see the Giants favored. UM. To me,

636
00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 1: what's interesting about this game is the matchup for Baker

637
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 1: last week against Cleveland. It was a defense that obvious

638
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,000
Speaker 1: he knew him because he was the former quarterback of

639
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 1: the team. A lot of the pregame quotes about how

640
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:08,960
Speaker 1: they were planning to scheme against him were all related

641
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 1: to what he did in preseason, because I remember there

642
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 1: was the quarterback battle between him and Donald and they

643
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 1: were They were putting a lot out there in preseason,

644
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,800
Speaker 1: which teams do not usually do. And they're also starting

645
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 1: a rookie at left tackle that had to deal with

646
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 1: the Cleveland pass rush and so matched up against the Giants,

647
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 1: there's a lot less familiarity. It's a significantly worse defense,

648
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 1: and it's also a Giants team that could be without

649
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 1: their two edge pass rushers. And if that's the case,

650
00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 1: then Baker Mayfield, who's impacted by pressure as drastically as

651
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 1: almost any quarterback in the league, gets kind of a reprieve.

652
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 1: But there's also Macadoo coming out and openly saying that

653
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:57,160
Speaker 1: this needs to be a game where Christian McCaffrey is

654
00:33:57,200 --> 00:34:00,480
Speaker 1: featured far more than he was in Week one, So

655
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 1: that probably takes some of the pressure off of Mayfield

656
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 1: as well against his Giants run defense. Um, I'm with you.

657
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:10,440
Speaker 1: I think it stacks up quite well for Carolina. That's

658
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 1: a really good teaser, like h two and a half

659
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 1: with the short total, so teasing Carolina up. I mean

660
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:17,840
Speaker 1: Daniel Daniel Jones. And again I know, Adam, when I

661
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:19,719
Speaker 1: say something like this, does it sound to you like

662
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 1: a throwaway line? Daniel Jones sucks at home. He never

663
00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:24,239
Speaker 1: covers a spread in New York. I don't know if

664
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 1: it's the bright lights, but for whatever reason, he is

665
00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 1: a much better cover machine on the road than he

666
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 1: is at home. Does that have somebody said something like that,

667
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:33,759
Speaker 1: do you just say no value there? I don't care. Well,

668
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 1: not necessarily, because if he's on the road, it probably

669
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:39,800
Speaker 1: means that with this team he's likely been an underdog,

670
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:42,319
Speaker 1: and if he's at home, it's a case where we

671
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 1: can see him as a favorite. And last week he

672
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:47,840
Speaker 1: was a five and a half point underdog, there was

673
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 1: opportunity for the cover. This week, they're in a different spot.

674
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:53,920
Speaker 1: They're laying two and a half points. If you're comparing

675
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 1: that to a teaser on Carolina and you get them

676
00:34:57,080 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 1: at eight and a half points, you're now look at

677
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 1: the Giants offense that's going to have to get outside

678
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 1: of double digits for that leg to lose. That's a

679
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 1: big number for this Giant's offense to cover, especially if

680
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:11,839
Speaker 1: Tony is not going to be featured, if Robinson still hurt,

681
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:13,319
Speaker 1: it's going to be a team that runs the ball

682
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:15,759
Speaker 1: a lot with sake one, which is great, but when

683
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:19,200
Speaker 1: it comes to winning by double digits, that's very, very

684
00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 1: different than covering as a mid to bigger size underdog.

685
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 1: And I knew you were watching Titans Giants, but I

686
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:29,600
Speaker 1: was stunned. The kid Hilliard on Tennessee was open so

687
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:32,239
Speaker 1: often against the Giants, Like if you start thinking, wow,

688
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:34,080
Speaker 1: McCaffrey out of the backfield, is he gonna get loose?

689
00:35:34,120 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 1: Like I just wonder two cool quick ones. The biggest

690
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:39,440
Speaker 1: divide of the people that I know and talked to

691
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 1: in respect is Miami Baltimore. I really like Baltimore in

692
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:45,960
Speaker 1: this spot, but other people are saying, people that I

693
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:48,839
Speaker 1: talked to, you say, Miami Dolphins here, Um were you

694
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:53,960
Speaker 1: on this game? Dolphins offense was interesting in Week one.

695
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 1: Their second most effective play was the Patriots jumping offside,

696
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:01,400
Speaker 1: and so so it was the fourth it was the

697
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:03,760
Speaker 1: fourth down pass for the touchdown, and then the second

698
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 1: was the patch jumping outside. In terms of play quality

699
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 1: and effectiveness, and so I think they maybe looked a

700
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:14,279
Speaker 1: little bit better than the scoreboard indicated, but still there

701
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:17,359
Speaker 1: was some uncertainties there. The Ravens, on the other hand,

702
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:19,799
Speaker 1: they win twenty four to nine, but there was there

703
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 1: was no run game against the Jets defense, which I

704
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:25,120
Speaker 1: don't think is very good. And that's the identity and

705
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:27,719
Speaker 1: what the Ravens want to do on offense, and they

706
00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 1: have some old line issues. The running backs still aren't

707
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:33,719
Speaker 1: fully healthy and matched up against Miami. The Dolphins have

708
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:37,800
Speaker 1: the guys in the secondary to play up and support

709
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:39,920
Speaker 1: the run and stick with Lamar and stick with the

710
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 1: speed that they can put out there. And so if

711
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:44,759
Speaker 1: that running game isn't there again and the Ravens have

712
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 1: to rely on the passing game, which again is going

713
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 1: up against a very good Miami front that I think

714
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 1: makes it challenging to get outside of this number. But

715
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:57,520
Speaker 1: it's really a question of how much can you trust

716
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:01,080
Speaker 1: the Miami offense to continue moving to football. So it's

717
00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 1: a split for a reason. I know, folks on both

718
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 1: sides of this. Tough one to get to from a

719
00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:09,160
Speaker 1: spread perspective. Interesting, now, last year Miami destroyed them. I

720
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:11,640
Speaker 1: think it was a Thursday night game. Miami was like

721
00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:15,719
Speaker 1: struggling big time. Yeah, yeah, that was It was a

722
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:17,759
Speaker 1: brutal game. But you mentioned the running. So you're a

723
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,520
Speaker 1: Jets guy. I watched a game, and I know that

724
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:24,160
Speaker 1: people are not gonna like this. But Lamar obviously playing

725
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:25,880
Speaker 1: without a contract. I mean, and I don't mean he's

726
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 1: playing for nothing, but he did not agree to a deal,

727
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:30,879
Speaker 1: do you think And again, this is people are probably

728
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:33,320
Speaker 1: gonna hate that I say this, But in his mind.

729
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 1: Do you think he would much rather be a passer

730
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 1: this year than a guy who's running, Because Adam I looked,

731
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:41,799
Speaker 1: he ran I think six times in the opener. That's

732
00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:44,439
Speaker 1: the fewest he ran in any game last season. Every

733
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:48,360
Speaker 1: game he was like seven A twelve thirteen carries. Yeah.

734
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 1: Does he want to be a passer? Does he want

735
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:52,440
Speaker 1: to be at the buffet? We saw him yesterday, he

736
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:55,399
Speaker 1: was drinking a milkshake at the press conference. I don't

737
00:37:55,400 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 1: know what's going on. He visibly seems different, and he

738
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 1: has in seasons passed. I think there could be truth

739
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:06,440
Speaker 1: to that that their most effective play on offense with

740
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:09,359
Speaker 1: him under center the last couple of seasons have been

741
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:13,560
Speaker 1: designed runs or scrambles that he has led, and if

742
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:17,360
Speaker 1: you take that away from this offense, it completely changes

743
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 1: the dynamic of what they can do. So. I don't

744
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:22,000
Speaker 1: know if it's him being conservative. I don't know if

745
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:26,320
Speaker 1: it's him not fully comfortable behind the offensive line with issues.

746
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 1: I'm not sure, but there was something strange with that.

747
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:32,719
Speaker 1: Very quietly, the under in this game is becoming pretty

748
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 1: appealing to something interesting. Fox Sports Radio has the best

749
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:39,400
Speaker 1: sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our

750
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:42,920
Speaker 1: shows at Fox Sports Radio dot com and within the

751
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 1: I Heart Radio app search f s R to listen live.

752
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:49,719
Speaker 1: We can wrap up with Patriots Steelers, mostly because Matt

753
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:54,680
Speaker 1: Jones did not play practice on Thursday due to an illness. Um,

754
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 1: we don't know if that's COVID. Uh, we don't know

755
00:38:57,160 --> 00:38:58,560
Speaker 1: if it's just an illness. But then he had the

756
00:38:58,600 --> 00:39:01,879
Speaker 1: back issue. And I'll just every single person I've talked

757
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 1: to loves the Patriots this week. Every single person. Uh

758
00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:06,720
Speaker 1: cow heard you know. I'm on the show now, Guests

759
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:10,480
Speaker 1: come on in between commercials, we're talking. Everybody universally is

760
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:13,920
Speaker 1: on the Patriots, and I know Belichick awful loss. Adam,

761
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:17,279
Speaker 1: I kind of want to take Patriots too, But when

762
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 1: the whole world is on our team, don't you historically

763
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:22,200
Speaker 1: kind of gotta go the other way. Okay, So there's

764
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 1: a difference between the whole world and then the people

765
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:26,640
Speaker 1: that we listened to, and we listen to a lot

766
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:28,839
Speaker 1: of the same people. So you're right that a lot

767
00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:32,040
Speaker 1: of the people we listened to like New England in

768
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 1: this game. But I think there's plenty of folks who

769
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:36,880
Speaker 1: are also backing the Steelers in here because of what

770
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:40,560
Speaker 1: they did week one. Um, there's people who think that

771
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:45,200
Speaker 1: this defense for Pittsburgh is like second or third best

772
00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 1: in the league, like was very elite, top unit without

773
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:50,680
Speaker 1: what wow, And now so there's there's where we're going.

774
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 1: So you take a wat out of the equation. But

775
00:39:53,239 --> 00:39:58,080
Speaker 1: there's people that I know that watch film obsessively. They're

776
00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:01,560
Speaker 1: very good at putting numbers on ratings of defensive players

777
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:04,840
Speaker 1: to think this even with what was like an average defense.

778
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:07,959
Speaker 1: And so that Week one game I think was really

779
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:11,239
Speaker 1: divisive because it's, oh my god, the Steelers get five turnovers.

780
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:14,359
Speaker 1: They made a very good Cincinnati offense look much worse

781
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:17,880
Speaker 1: than it is. That that has a real impact into

782
00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:21,359
Speaker 1: this specific game and within this week, what I would

783
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:24,040
Speaker 1: say about the Patriots and sort of the the spot

784
00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:30,920
Speaker 1: of uncertainty. They all pre season struggled with anything they

785
00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 1: were trying to do on offense, and every single day

786
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:39,160
Speaker 1: reporters throughout the camp joint practices games, we're saying how

787
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:42,400
Speaker 1: much frustration there was from Mac Jones in regards to

788
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:45,800
Speaker 1: the offense, in terms of who was calling the plays,

789
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:48,440
Speaker 1: what the back and forth was, the lack of separation

790
00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 1: from receivers, like there were so many issues. And then

791
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:54,400
Speaker 1: they come out and put up seven points against the Dolphins,

792
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:57,759
Speaker 1: albeit a lot of drives got past midfield installed out

793
00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:02,319
Speaker 1: this it's a short total for the reason. I'll put

794
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:05,799
Speaker 1: it that way this week at forty. But boy, I'm

795
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 1: I'm sure not as bullish on everyone backing the Patriots

796
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 1: in this situation. But you can't. You can't pay me

797
00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:14,920
Speaker 1: the bet on Pittsburgh right now, No, of course not Trobitsky.

798
00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:17,160
Speaker 1: Did you hear Trabisky's comments, We've got to be more aggressive,

799
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 1: like no offensive Cordin is gonna let you be as

800
00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:22,520
Speaker 1: of course. Yeah, I mean they're they're nursing that lead

801
00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 1: against the Bengals and I'm just waiting from fumble interception

802
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:29,880
Speaker 1: something dumb. That's like his history right. That game reminded

803
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:32,799
Speaker 1: me a lot of the Chargers Raiders ending last year

804
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:34,840
Speaker 1: in the final week of the r where the last

805
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:37,279
Speaker 1: drive and like the last two minutes took an hour

806
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:40,880
Speaker 1: because it was just this imbending Cincinnati's score. Do you

807
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:43,719
Speaker 1: knew the Steelers couldn't stop it? And I mean how

808
00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:47,359
Speaker 1: they benefited so much from those Bengals turnovers? You take

809
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:50,799
Speaker 1: those away? Easy thing to say now, but they're not

810
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:53,520
Speaker 1: gonna get five turnovers a game to help that offense.

811
00:41:53,520 --> 00:41:55,960
Speaker 1: It's not all right. He's Adam turn Off. You can

812
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:58,759
Speaker 1: find his stuff covers Twitter, he goes on all the

813
00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 1: Vegas radio station. I mean, Adam, you're booked pretty solid

814
00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:06,799
Speaker 1: all the time. Huh. This season is a big one

815
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:08,719
Speaker 1: for me. You had a great season last year, right,

816
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:13,439
Speaker 1: I mean it unfortunately sets the expectations awfully high this year.

817
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:17,240
Speaker 1: I know realistically what happened last season. If that happens

818
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:19,640
Speaker 1: again one time in my life, I would be I'd

819
00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:22,960
Speaker 1: be thrilled. That's just it's not repeatable. Um, and so

820
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:28,279
Speaker 1: I it's set up to to maybe lower expectations this year,

821
00:42:28,320 --> 00:42:30,560
Speaker 1: just because betting the NFL is very hard, and so

822
00:42:30,760 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 1: that's where it is. Alright, congrats man, and keep up

823
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:35,680
Speaker 1: the good stuff on the telegram app. I'm sure people

824
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:37,600
Speaker 1: when they listen to this will follow you and all

825
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:39,880
Speaker 1: that stuff. And good luck this week and the rest

826
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:42,360
Speaker 1: of the year. I look forward to my invite back

827
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:48,719
Speaker 1: two years from now. Alright, thanks thanks again. The only

828
00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:51,560
Speaker 1: thing better than sitting on your couch watching the game.

829
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:56,440
Speaker 1: He's making money while you do it. Here's your best bet.

830
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:02,279
Speaker 1: Good good stuff from Adam churn Off. Some gambling advice,

831
00:43:02,920 --> 00:43:05,359
Speaker 1: some tips for week two. I don't know how if

832
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 1: you listen to this pod last week you didn't have

833
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:09,600
Speaker 1: a good week one. I can understand a lot of

834
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:13,280
Speaker 1: people getting bounced and survivor. I am alive and survivor.

835
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 1: And it's funny. My neighbor who has become a big baller.

836
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 1: I don't know if he's listening to the podcast lately.

837
00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:22,799
Speaker 1: Um guy's got multiple houses. He's just crushing. If he

838
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:24,520
Speaker 1: had a business for a long time and it was

839
00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:28,160
Speaker 1: like treading water and then it recently popped, like you know,

840
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:30,279
Speaker 1: the last few years. So we we hang out with them,

841
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:33,880
Speaker 1: nice kids. And he texted me that he's in a

842
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 1: survivor pool. I didn't even know he gambled or did

843
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:40,239
Speaker 1: survivor anything. And he said, well, Jay, Um, I I

844
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:44,840
Speaker 1: got you know, they're like the league got booted. Um

845
00:43:44,880 --> 00:43:46,880
Speaker 1: in week one. He's like, I gotta take the Bengals

846
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:50,279
Speaker 1: right now. I was like, oh, so you're taking a

847
00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:57,359
Speaker 1: road team favored by a touchdown. We just saw last

848
00:43:57,400 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 1: week some pretty big upsets team in the Colts favored

849
00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 1: by a touchdown tie, you know, like that Bears. We're

850
00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:10,839
Speaker 1: a home dog. I think of about seven against San

851
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:15,600
Speaker 1: fran win out right, like things happen to these the

852
00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 1: things I like to avoid our road UM favorites, and

853
00:44:19,800 --> 00:44:24,560
Speaker 1: especially division road favorites. Bengals Dallas obviously not a divisional

854
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:28,080
Speaker 1: set set up, but I would just be careful with that. UM.

855
00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:31,719
Speaker 1: It's tough to explain that. But again, survivor grid, which

856
00:44:31,840 --> 00:44:34,319
Speaker 1: David Baker mentioned last week, I've never heard of it.

857
00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:37,719
Speaker 1: It is saying green Bay is the best play on

858
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 1: the board. But again, I look at that schedule. I

859
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:42,120
Speaker 1: said green Bay is gonna play the Jets at in

860
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:44,319
Speaker 1: Lambeau in week six, and I think the Jets are

861
00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:46,719
Speaker 1: coming off a London trip, which is like that's an

862
00:44:46,719 --> 00:44:49,279
Speaker 1: automatic play, But you gotta get to week six. Can

863
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:53,480
Speaker 1: you choose San Francisco Seattle home favorite? Sounds like there's

864
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:57,400
Speaker 1: gonna be inclement weather. No, George Kittle, I think the

865
00:44:57,520 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 1: Niners smashed them, but Pete Carroll's won in the last

866
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:04,800
Speaker 1: four and Shanahan Buffalo Tennessee, big big number for Buffalo.

867
00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:09,000
Speaker 1: Can they can they beat Tennessee outright? Tennessee off off

868
00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:11,799
Speaker 1: off a loss, a devastating one. I would want to

869
00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:15,640
Speaker 1: save Buffalo folks. They have still play the Jets twice,

870
00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 1: including weeks nine and fourteen. They're gonna be favored by

871
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:23,440
Speaker 1: more than a touchdown against the Patriots, the Dolphins, the Bears.

872
00:45:24,080 --> 00:45:28,520
Speaker 1: You're gonna have ample opportunities to use Buffalo. So I

873
00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:31,239
Speaker 1: kind of want to settle on Denver, which is at

874
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:35,080
Speaker 1: home against Houston. Denver, you look at their schedule, they

875
00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:38,920
Speaker 1: also play the Jets. But as Churnoff alluded to this

876
00:45:39,080 --> 00:45:43,360
Speaker 1: early season, altitude is massive. Now I have a personal

877
00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 1: fear of Houston and Davis Mills because last year in

878
00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:49,360
Speaker 1: the Survivor I had the Chargers going into Houston, different setup,

879
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:52,640
Speaker 1: obviously in a great spot, and they get their doors

880
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 1: blown off and I'm out of Survivor and like week

881
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:57,360
Speaker 1: out of fifteen or something, I was so angry. So

882
00:45:57,480 --> 00:46:00,000
Speaker 1: Houston does kind of scare me. Another reason, I uh,

883
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 1: you know last week with the Colts. They I took

884
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:04,880
Speaker 1: the Colts in one of my four survivors, and I'm

885
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:07,760
Speaker 1: out of that one. So then you also have the Rams,

886
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:11,680
Speaker 1: Rams Atlanta, and you're like, okay, Atlanta not great. But

887
00:46:12,120 --> 00:46:14,239
Speaker 1: I thought of any of the major contenders, I thought

888
00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:17,080
Speaker 1: the Rams looked the worst last week and they're coming

889
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:20,840
Speaker 1: out not looking better. With the offensive line. You know,

890
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:24,200
Speaker 1: I can see them sleep walking through this. They got

891
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:26,640
Speaker 1: a big matchup with Arizona next week, then San Franz

892
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 1: Um I I mean, I don't know. So then then

893
00:46:30,719 --> 00:46:32,520
Speaker 1: you're like, oh, well, what about Cincinnati. You're definitely not

894
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:34,920
Speaker 1: gonna take Cincinnati. They have the toughest schedule in November

895
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:37,480
Speaker 1: to sever anyone the league. Are you gonna take them

896
00:46:37,480 --> 00:46:39,200
Speaker 1: against the Jets next week on the road where they

897
00:46:39,239 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 1: lost in that spot last year? Um, they will be

898
00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:44,360
Speaker 1: favored by ten and a half at home against Atlanta.

899
00:46:45,040 --> 00:46:46,799
Speaker 1: That's maybe a good spot. But then you're like, oh,

900
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 1: do I take Cleveland? I would definitely not take Cleveland.

901
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:57,000
Speaker 1: Jacoby Brissette favored by six. Cleveland played um Baker Mayfield

902
00:46:57,040 --> 00:47:00,000
Speaker 1: the opener. They got. The Jets w they overlooked because

903
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:02,280
Speaker 1: guests who they play next week, Pittsburgh in a massive

904
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:04,759
Speaker 1: rivalry game. It'll be easy for them to overlook the

905
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:08,240
Speaker 1: Jets and folks in the super Contest, the Circle Millions

906
00:47:08,239 --> 00:47:09,839
Speaker 1: where you have to pick five every week, I went

907
00:47:09,880 --> 00:47:11,960
Speaker 1: four and one. I'm pissed about the Eagles. I just

908
00:47:12,120 --> 00:47:14,360
Speaker 1: knew they were gonna get back door by Jared goff

909
00:47:14,640 --> 00:47:16,640
Speaker 1: Up By seventeen in the fourth quarter and they blow

910
00:47:16,719 --> 00:47:21,640
Speaker 1: the cover at any rate, I'm thinking of taking the Jets. Now.

911
00:47:21,680 --> 00:47:24,080
Speaker 1: It's painful to back Joe Flacco, but this is more

912
00:47:24,080 --> 00:47:26,640
Speaker 1: of a bet against Jacoby Brissette. The Browns are gonna

913
00:47:26,680 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 1: want to run, run, run. The Jets kind of shut

914
00:47:28,719 --> 00:47:31,520
Speaker 1: down the Ravens run. Can they slow Hunt and Chubb

915
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:34,600
Speaker 1: and you know, uh, what's his name's not beating you

916
00:47:34,600 --> 00:47:37,319
Speaker 1: over the top a Marii Cooper against Souce Gardner. By

917
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:39,560
Speaker 1: the way, souce Gardner had a great game. You could

918
00:47:39,600 --> 00:47:43,880
Speaker 1: go on YouTube and look up Sauce Gardner Jets versus

919
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:46,880
Speaker 1: Ravens and he had an outstanding rookie performance in his

920
00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:50,040
Speaker 1: first game. DJ Reid was pretty good. I know they

921
00:47:50,080 --> 00:47:51,680
Speaker 1: got beat over the top of the Safeties are a

922
00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:55,040
Speaker 1: little suspect, but that could open up things for the

923
00:47:55,040 --> 00:47:58,040
Speaker 1: tight end. I just I can see the Jets hanging around.

924
00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:01,080
Speaker 1: I'm considering them. That would be a big bet for me.

925
00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:03,480
Speaker 1: That's a tough one. So those are like the only

926
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 1: six games, and ultimately I think I'm probably gonna divvy

927
00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:08,839
Speaker 1: it up. I think Green Bay is a lay up

928
00:48:09,400 --> 00:48:14,160
Speaker 1: folk show, but I think ultimately, uh, Denver and and

929
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:16,399
Speaker 1: the Rams. I think, are you know I have three

930
00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:19,040
Speaker 1: entries left? I think Green Bay, Denver Rams. I'm definitely

931
00:48:19,040 --> 00:48:22,440
Speaker 1: not doubling up. I'm gonna spread spread the wealth, as

932
00:48:22,480 --> 00:48:24,360
Speaker 1: they like to say. All right, so what through a

933
00:48:24,360 --> 00:48:26,560
Speaker 1: bunch of the games will turn off if you skip interviews, Well,

934
00:48:26,840 --> 00:48:28,480
Speaker 1: you missed our breakdown of a bunch of games and

935
00:48:28,719 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 1: where we're betting. But I will call up the account

936
00:48:33,120 --> 00:48:35,200
Speaker 1: here and let's see what we've got. So obviously we

937
00:48:35,239 --> 00:48:38,120
Speaker 1: talked about Carolina. That is a team I will be

938
00:48:38,120 --> 00:48:40,279
Speaker 1: betting on Baker Mayfield. I know if you saw the

939
00:48:40,360 --> 00:48:43,640
Speaker 1: injury news, the New York Giants number two cornerback had

940
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:46,520
Speaker 1: an appendeck to me out, they're either promoting a guy

941
00:48:46,560 --> 00:48:48,719
Speaker 1: from the practice squad or throwing in like a third

942
00:48:48,760 --> 00:48:52,200
Speaker 1: round rookie. Now, that would not matter in the opener

943
00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:56,719
Speaker 1: against Tennessee because Tennessee don't have any receivers, right, Carolina

944
00:48:56,800 --> 00:48:59,200
Speaker 1: has d J. Moore and Robbie Anderson. Robby Anderson will

945
00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:01,759
Speaker 1: take you over the top, and d J. Moore is

946
00:49:01,800 --> 00:49:05,759
Speaker 1: a really good possession receiver. Carolina can exploit that. It

947
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:08,400
Speaker 1: sounds like Thibadeau may give it a go. For the Giants,

948
00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:10,640
Speaker 1: which should be a huge bonus coming off the edge

949
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:13,279
Speaker 1: because Tanneh help picked out them apart, Baker can do

950
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:16,440
Speaker 1: the same. I just think Carolina has success here. I'm

951
00:49:16,440 --> 00:49:18,600
Speaker 1: gonna be on the Panthers in the contest for sure.

952
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:21,240
Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna officially be on the Saints. Obviously,

953
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:24,319
Speaker 1: you gotta wait for the Tampa practice injury report. If

954
00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:28,360
Speaker 1: suddenly Godwin, Gage, Evans, Julio, everybody's fine and the offensive

955
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:30,480
Speaker 1: line is fine, which I don't think it is, then

956
00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:32,360
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna take the Saints. But I think the

957
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:34,880
Speaker 1: Saints at home. Have you seen this total come down

958
00:49:35,680 --> 00:49:38,320
Speaker 1: by a full field goal? I can see the Saints

959
00:49:38,320 --> 00:49:41,600
Speaker 1: defense really waking up. Remember Lattimore has done extremely well

960
00:49:42,040 --> 00:49:44,640
Speaker 1: against Mike Evans head to head. I think the Saints

961
00:49:44,680 --> 00:49:47,200
Speaker 1: win this game. So I will be betting Saints money

962
00:49:47,280 --> 00:49:51,000
Speaker 1: line and Saints uh uh as a two and a

963
00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:52,719
Speaker 1: half point dog. I'd love to get three. I'm not

964
00:49:52,920 --> 00:49:55,319
Speaker 1: somebody asked me about buying up to three. I just

965
00:49:55,360 --> 00:49:58,239
Speaker 1: don't know. I mean, I don't know that that that's

966
00:49:58,239 --> 00:50:00,719
Speaker 1: a move for me. Um. I guess it depends if

967
00:50:00,760 --> 00:50:02,839
Speaker 1: you're just looking at you know, bucks go for it

968
00:50:03,200 --> 00:50:05,200
Speaker 1: um by the by the half point if you want,

969
00:50:05,239 --> 00:50:07,960
Speaker 1: but over the long haul, you're not gonna win if

970
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:10,560
Speaker 1: you're if you keep buying points, So I take the

971
00:50:10,600 --> 00:50:13,319
Speaker 1: two and a half um Again. We discussed the New

972
00:50:13,360 --> 00:50:17,680
Speaker 1: England Patriots. I think I'm gonna wait on the Bengals,

973
00:50:18,480 --> 00:50:21,680
Speaker 1: UH and and Dallas to see what's going on with

974
00:50:21,880 --> 00:50:25,200
Speaker 1: UH With the Cowboys injuries, Jalen cursed the safety, sounds

975
00:50:25,200 --> 00:50:27,040
Speaker 1: like he's out. Let's see what's up with the offensive line.

976
00:50:27,920 --> 00:50:30,480
Speaker 1: The one game that I keep looking hard at his Arizona.

977
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:33,040
Speaker 1: If you if Week two is over reaction in the NFL,

978
00:50:33,640 --> 00:50:38,080
Speaker 1: there hasn't been a bigger line adjustment than Arizona being

979
00:50:38,160 --> 00:50:41,200
Speaker 1: going from two and a half point dogs to five

980
00:50:41,239 --> 00:50:44,759
Speaker 1: and a half point dogs, And it's like, well, is

981
00:50:44,840 --> 00:50:48,880
Speaker 1: Derek Carr and that bad offensive line really worthy of

982
00:50:48,920 --> 00:50:51,120
Speaker 1: being favored by five and a half. I think, obviously

983
00:50:51,120 --> 00:50:53,320
Speaker 1: the Raiders should have a lot of success with the

984
00:50:53,400 --> 00:50:57,520
Speaker 1: Vante Adams through the air, Um Hunter, Renfro Darren Waller

985
00:50:57,640 --> 00:51:00,480
Speaker 1: like Mahomes carved him up. I think Derek Horrible carved

986
00:51:00,520 --> 00:51:04,960
Speaker 1: them up. The problem is this Raider's defense is not

987
00:51:05,040 --> 00:51:08,480
Speaker 1: any good. Kyler Murray assuming some of his pieces come back.

988
00:51:08,560 --> 00:51:10,520
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna be much better now. I don't

989
00:51:10,560 --> 00:51:14,319
Speaker 1: know about Rondelle Moore, but I do they have the

990
00:51:14,360 --> 00:51:17,879
Speaker 1: weapons to hang with the Raiders, I would lean yes,

991
00:51:17,920 --> 00:51:21,640
Speaker 1: I'm looking at Arizona. I just the Kyler Murray stuff. Man,

992
00:51:21,840 --> 00:51:24,600
Speaker 1: I'm I'm kind of out. So ultimately your boy maybe

993
00:51:24,680 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 1: looking at a couple of double digit favorites. Green Bay

994
00:51:28,080 --> 00:51:30,719
Speaker 1: for one, and I know this is it's bitten me

995
00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:32,440
Speaker 1: in the assiden are done. But green Bay and Denver

996
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:34,680
Speaker 1: are two that I it's just too tough to pass up.

997
00:51:35,200 --> 00:51:38,560
Speaker 1: I think, um, and then the other one I think

998
00:51:38,600 --> 00:51:41,200
Speaker 1: against my better judgment. I I really want to take

999
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:45,920
Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens, and you know I've looked hard at Washington.

1000
00:51:46,560 --> 00:51:49,520
Speaker 1: Detroit had some injury issues. We'll see with Swift. I

1001
00:51:49,920 --> 00:51:53,880
Speaker 1: want to take Jacksonville. But some of these numbers, you know,

1002
00:51:53,920 --> 00:51:56,359
Speaker 1: Fox sends me all these trends. They got a couple

1003
00:51:56,360 --> 00:51:58,200
Speaker 1: of guys who are able to find some good stuff,

1004
00:51:58,239 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 1: like how about this one. It's from box teams that

1005
00:52:01,360 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 1: start with two straight road games. Since very small sample

1006
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:09,839
Speaker 1: size could be some noise because of COVID, the road

1007
00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:13,279
Speaker 1: team in game two is eight and o against the

1008
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:16,439
Speaker 1: spread seven and one straight up, two straight road games.

1009
00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:19,759
Speaker 1: That applies to New England and Indianapolis, both on the

1010
00:52:19,840 --> 00:52:23,080
Speaker 1: road back to back. You know, again, these are trends,

1011
00:52:23,120 --> 00:52:25,880
Speaker 1: small sample size. I'm not saying auto bet. I'm just

1012
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:30,000
Speaker 1: saying it's worth looking into. Fox also sent me this

1013
00:52:30,200 --> 00:52:32,839
Speaker 1: um if you need more m O for Carolina New

1014
00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:35,279
Speaker 1: York Giants. And again, they're just trends. Don't take them

1015
00:52:35,280 --> 00:52:40,279
Speaker 1: as everything. Danny Dimes thirteen and six a t s

1016
00:52:40,560 --> 00:52:43,800
Speaker 1: on the road as a starter at home seven and twelve,

1017
00:52:44,320 --> 00:52:46,439
Speaker 1: he's better away from the bright lights. Again, I don't

1018
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:50,080
Speaker 1: know how you explain that. It just feels a little awkward.

1019
00:52:51,200 --> 00:52:53,640
Speaker 1: Now here's another one from Fox. And again I've got

1020
00:52:53,680 --> 00:52:56,040
Speaker 1: tons of these. I just I don't know how much

1021
00:52:56,120 --> 00:52:59,280
Speaker 1: value they carry there. Just like here's a nugget for instance,

1022
00:52:59,280 --> 00:53:02,200
Speaker 1: remember week one we said super Bowl the Super Bowl

1023
00:53:02,280 --> 00:53:04,439
Speaker 1: losers in Week one or four and eighteen against the spread.

1024
00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:07,600
Speaker 1: I think Bernie Fraudo had that, and everybody was like, Wow,

1025
00:53:07,600 --> 00:53:09,120
Speaker 1: that's the Bengals. I mean, come on, they're gonna kill

1026
00:53:09,160 --> 00:53:13,440
Speaker 1: the Steelers. They lose the game, they don't cover the spread.

1027
00:53:13,719 --> 00:53:16,200
Speaker 1: Four nineteen, Now super Bowl Losers explain, I don't know,

1028
00:53:16,239 --> 00:53:21,800
Speaker 1: it's a trend that's kind of fascinating. Um, so remember

1029
00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:24,239
Speaker 1: the teams that start with two straight road games. If

1030
00:53:24,280 --> 00:53:28,920
Speaker 1: you go back to twenty fifteen, things change, right. So

1031
00:53:29,920 --> 00:53:33,080
Speaker 1: was there something in ten and twenty sorry not nineteen,

1032
00:53:33,120 --> 00:53:36,279
Speaker 1: but twenty and twenty one with the COVID that kind

1033
00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:39,799
Speaker 1: of messed things up for travel? And I get I

1034
00:53:39,840 --> 00:53:42,320
Speaker 1: don't know the testing, and that's why some of these trends.

1035
00:53:42,360 --> 00:53:44,839
Speaker 1: You don't really know what to do with them other

1036
00:53:44,880 --> 00:53:47,600
Speaker 1: than like they're interesting. Here they are what does the

1037
00:53:47,640 --> 00:53:53,200
Speaker 1: market say? You know? Um, this NFL gambling is tough

1038
00:53:53,200 --> 00:53:57,520
Speaker 1: turn off set it So I guess ultimately my card

1039
00:53:57,520 --> 00:54:07,640
Speaker 1: would probably look like Baltimore, Jacksonville, Saints, Panthers, Patriots. Well,

1040
00:54:07,680 --> 00:54:11,320
Speaker 1: now I'm beyond five. Um, I'm not gonna get scared

1041
00:54:11,360 --> 00:54:13,560
Speaker 1: off by the kittle in the Rain. I ultimately I'll

1042
00:54:13,560 --> 00:54:17,160
Speaker 1: probably be on San Franz uh Rams. I'm getting a

1043
00:54:17,160 --> 00:54:20,560
Speaker 1: little skittish about uh, Denver and Green Bay. I think

1044
00:54:20,560 --> 00:54:25,320
Speaker 1: I'm gonna avoid the Monday night games at least four now. Um,

1045
00:54:25,400 --> 00:54:29,040
Speaker 1: but everybody have a great weekend. Obviously pace yourselves. This

1046
00:54:29,120 --> 00:54:31,719
Speaker 1: is a lengthy season. But this is a long podcast.

1047
00:54:31,760 --> 00:54:34,040
Speaker 1: We'll be back on Monday. Talk to you then.