1 00:00:15,356 --> 00:00:22,916 Speaker 1: Pushkin from Pushkin Industries. This is Deep Background, the show 2 00:00:22,916 --> 00:00:26,236 Speaker 1: where we explore the stories behind the stories in the news. 3 00:00:26,836 --> 00:00:31,076 Speaker 1: I'm Noah Feldman, and we are still talking about coronavirus 4 00:00:31,676 --> 00:00:34,796 Speaker 1: in particular. We're going to talk today about the interaction 5 00:00:35,036 --> 00:00:39,476 Speaker 1: between the virus and the economy. How soon can we 6 00:00:39,516 --> 00:00:42,676 Speaker 1: go back to work? How safe will that be? How 7 00:00:42,756 --> 00:00:44,956 Speaker 1: unsafe will we be if we don't look out for 8 00:00:44,996 --> 00:00:49,476 Speaker 1: the economy. To discuss these very difficult issues, I spoke 9 00:00:49,516 --> 00:00:53,516 Speaker 1: to Paul Romer, a Nobel winning economist at New York University. 10 00:00:53,876 --> 00:00:56,316 Speaker 1: He used to be the chief economist of the World Bank, 11 00:00:56,516 --> 00:01:01,836 Speaker 1: and he's been thinking hard about this subject. Paul, thank 12 00:01:01,876 --> 00:01:04,396 Speaker 1: you very much for joining me. I want to start 13 00:01:04,476 --> 00:01:08,556 Speaker 1: with a very influential essay that you and Alan Garber, 14 00:01:08,676 --> 00:01:11,396 Speaker 1: the provost at Harvard, published in the New York Times, 15 00:01:11,916 --> 00:01:14,676 Speaker 1: where you were the first I would say serious people 16 00:01:14,716 --> 00:01:19,156 Speaker 1: to put in a major public venue the economic concerns 17 00:01:19,196 --> 00:01:22,436 Speaker 1: about what we do about coronavirus on a par with 18 00:01:22,476 --> 00:01:24,556 Speaker 1: the public health concerns, or in relation to the public 19 00:01:24,596 --> 00:01:27,876 Speaker 1: health concerns. Describe to me, if you will, your current 20 00:01:27,916 --> 00:01:32,596 Speaker 1: thinking on that very challenging question. Yeah. I mean to 21 00:01:32,636 --> 00:01:34,196 Speaker 1: be honest, I think there were a lot of people 22 00:01:34,236 --> 00:01:38,196 Speaker 1: who were recognizing the size of the economic cost that 23 00:01:38,236 --> 00:01:41,556 Speaker 1: we were going to bear. I think what was distinctive 24 00:01:41,596 --> 00:01:46,556 Speaker 1: about our op ED was a very specific proposal about 25 00:01:46,596 --> 00:01:50,876 Speaker 1: how to craft a middle ground where we get out 26 00:01:50,916 --> 00:01:52,996 Speaker 1: of this trap where we either have to kill the 27 00:01:53,036 --> 00:01:57,236 Speaker 1: economy or killed lives. So if I can, let me 28 00:01:57,316 --> 00:02:00,556 Speaker 1: just try and explain the basics of the challenge, please do. 29 00:02:00,916 --> 00:02:04,916 Speaker 1: There's this notion of the replication rate. If one person 30 00:02:05,076 --> 00:02:08,516 Speaker 1: is infected, how many new people does that person infect? 31 00:02:09,116 --> 00:02:10,956 Speaker 1: What people call the R not or the R zero 32 00:02:11,076 --> 00:02:15,196 Speaker 1: yep ur zero are not a replication rate. That number 33 00:02:15,276 --> 00:02:18,636 Speaker 1: has to be less than one to keep the pandemic 34 00:02:18,636 --> 00:02:21,476 Speaker 1: in check. If it goes above one, then it just 35 00:02:21,716 --> 00:02:24,796 Speaker 1: grows like wildfire. Social distance is one way to get 36 00:02:24,796 --> 00:02:27,876 Speaker 1: it below one, but of course it's really hurting the economy. 37 00:02:28,596 --> 00:02:32,156 Speaker 1: The way to keep it below one that is guaranteed 38 00:02:32,156 --> 00:02:35,436 Speaker 1: to work is find the people who are infected and 39 00:02:35,676 --> 00:02:39,236 Speaker 1: isolate them. Now, right now, what we're doing is we're 40 00:02:39,276 --> 00:02:43,996 Speaker 1: isolating everybody because we don't know who's infected. So all 41 00:02:44,036 --> 00:02:46,916 Speaker 1: we need to do is switch to a strategy where 42 00:02:47,036 --> 00:02:50,876 Speaker 1: we're testing everybody with regularity. As soon as we find 43 00:02:50,916 --> 00:02:54,356 Speaker 1: somebody who's positive, we have them go into isolation for 44 00:02:54,516 --> 00:02:59,076 Speaker 1: say two weeks, and that's all it takes to get 45 00:02:59,076 --> 00:03:02,716 Speaker 1: on a path where this pandemic is dying out, and 46 00:03:02,756 --> 00:03:06,236 Speaker 1: we can stick with that policy as long as it 47 00:03:06,276 --> 00:03:09,316 Speaker 1: takes to get a vaccine, which is the other way 48 00:03:09,356 --> 00:03:13,756 Speaker 1: to protect ourselves. So all it takes is to figure 49 00:03:13,796 --> 00:03:17,956 Speaker 1: out who it is who's infectious and to isolate them 50 00:03:18,636 --> 00:03:22,716 Speaker 1: without isolating lots of people who could otherwise just go 51 00:03:22,756 --> 00:03:26,356 Speaker 1: back to daily life and work. I am not an epidemiologist, 52 00:03:26,396 --> 00:03:28,836 Speaker 1: and I want to be clear about the caveat to 53 00:03:28,916 --> 00:03:30,836 Speaker 1: that to that effect, but I want to ask a 54 00:03:30,956 --> 00:03:34,276 Speaker 1: question that's informed by my conversations with epidemiologists and what 55 00:03:34,356 --> 00:03:37,676 Speaker 1: I'm reading, and it's this, under circumstances where we already 56 00:03:37,676 --> 00:03:44,996 Speaker 1: have community spread, unless everyone we're tested nearly every day, 57 00:03:45,236 --> 00:03:49,356 Speaker 1: isn't there a substantial risk that even testing every week 58 00:03:49,476 --> 00:03:52,756 Speaker 1: or every ten days, which requires a tremendous number of tasks, 59 00:03:52,836 --> 00:03:54,956 Speaker 1: much greater than I think it seems realistic, at least 60 00:03:54,996 --> 00:03:56,796 Speaker 1: according to what I've read, for us to be able 61 00:03:56,836 --> 00:03:59,996 Speaker 1: to produce in the next few months, would leave open 62 00:04:00,036 --> 00:04:02,756 Speaker 1: the possibility of continued spread. I mean, your key line 63 00:04:02,836 --> 00:04:05,356 Speaker 1: is all we have to do is but the question is, 64 00:04:05,996 --> 00:04:08,076 Speaker 1: you know, is that in fact doable? We don't want 65 00:04:08,076 --> 00:04:10,356 Speaker 1: to be the people in the punchline of an economist 66 00:04:10,436 --> 00:04:13,076 Speaker 1: joke who assumed they can opener. No, I hear you, 67 00:04:13,316 --> 00:04:15,916 Speaker 1: And this is a good way to phrase the question. 68 00:04:16,876 --> 00:04:21,036 Speaker 1: Here's the way I would respond to the epidemiologists. It's 69 00:04:21,156 --> 00:04:24,036 Speaker 1: that you guys are supposed to be the ones who 70 00:04:24,076 --> 00:04:28,556 Speaker 1: take the numbers seriously, so do the numbers here. What 71 00:04:28,596 --> 00:04:31,876 Speaker 1: they're saying is something like, oh, we can't get enough testing, 72 00:04:32,236 --> 00:04:35,916 Speaker 1: so my gosh, you'd have to test people every every day. 73 00:04:35,956 --> 00:04:38,796 Speaker 1: That's just not true. All you have to do is 74 00:04:38,876 --> 00:04:42,556 Speaker 1: do the numbers here. If you tested people on average 75 00:04:42,596 --> 00:04:46,276 Speaker 1: about once every two weeks, and even if your test 76 00:04:46,636 --> 00:04:49,596 Speaker 1: has what they call a false negative rate, you fail 77 00:04:49,676 --> 00:04:53,676 Speaker 1: to catch some people who are actually infectious. Even under 78 00:04:53,676 --> 00:04:58,556 Speaker 1: those circumstances, you can get rzro below one. And I'm 79 00:04:58,556 --> 00:05:03,116 Speaker 1: really disappointed and want to challenge them. Why do they 80 00:05:03,156 --> 00:05:06,916 Speaker 1: switch into this kind of know nothing mode of that 81 00:05:07,036 --> 00:05:10,036 Speaker 1: just won't work? And then they the ones who claim 82 00:05:10,436 --> 00:05:12,876 Speaker 1: they're the ones who do the math, they just stop 83 00:05:12,996 --> 00:05:15,356 Speaker 1: doing the math. Now, let me be clear about what 84 00:05:15,396 --> 00:05:18,076 Speaker 1: it would mean to test people on average about once 85 00:05:18,116 --> 00:05:21,676 Speaker 1: every two weeks. This means running about twenty million tests 86 00:05:21,676 --> 00:05:25,516 Speaker 1: a day. That is a huge expansion in the testing 87 00:05:25,556 --> 00:05:29,636 Speaker 1: capacity that we have, and it's never been the case 88 00:05:30,076 --> 00:05:33,276 Speaker 1: that public health authorities had the kind of resources to 89 00:05:33,316 --> 00:05:35,756 Speaker 1: do that kind of testing. So I understand why they're 90 00:05:35,796 --> 00:05:39,196 Speaker 1: saying it's not possible, but just think about other cases 91 00:05:39,196 --> 00:05:41,956 Speaker 1: where we've done something like this. The TSA screens about 92 00:05:41,996 --> 00:05:46,116 Speaker 1: five million Americans a day, and you know, you could 93 00:05:46,116 --> 00:05:48,796 Speaker 1: have imagined a time before nine to eleven where people 94 00:05:48,796 --> 00:05:51,316 Speaker 1: were saying, oh my god, you could never screen all 95 00:05:51,476 --> 00:05:54,196 Speaker 1: people who get on airplanes. That's just impossible. And you know, 96 00:05:54,556 --> 00:05:56,956 Speaker 1: so we have to stop flying because we might have 97 00:05:56,996 --> 00:06:00,076 Speaker 1: a terrorist attack or something. You know, if we're serious 98 00:06:00,196 --> 00:06:04,036 Speaker 1: about scaling out to millions a day, we've got this 99 00:06:04,196 --> 00:06:08,036 Speaker 1: economy that could produce twenty trillion dollars worth of value. 100 00:06:08,276 --> 00:06:13,036 Speaker 1: We've got sixty million workers. We could organize ourselves to 101 00:06:13,116 --> 00:06:16,116 Speaker 1: administer twenty million tests a day. It's really not that 102 00:06:16,196 --> 00:06:19,956 Speaker 1: big a challenge. It isn't something that was ever available 103 00:06:20,036 --> 00:06:23,836 Speaker 1: to public health authorities before, but we could easily decide 104 00:06:23,836 --> 00:06:26,556 Speaker 1: to do it now. And I really want to just 105 00:06:26,716 --> 00:06:29,836 Speaker 1: insist and I'm going to get aggressive about this. The 106 00:06:29,916 --> 00:06:34,796 Speaker 1: epidemiologists can't just go into know nothing mode and dismiss 107 00:06:34,876 --> 00:06:39,796 Speaker 1: this without actually doing the math and engaging seriously. So 108 00:06:39,836 --> 00:06:42,756 Speaker 1: I think that many epidemiologists that I know at least 109 00:06:42,796 --> 00:06:45,516 Speaker 1: would say, it's not that we're not doing the math 110 00:06:46,436 --> 00:06:48,716 Speaker 1: at all. That they say, you know, we live on 111 00:06:48,796 --> 00:06:50,676 Speaker 1: math and we're not ignoring the math. I think that's 112 00:06:50,676 --> 00:06:52,276 Speaker 1: the first thing they would say. The second thing I 113 00:06:52,276 --> 00:06:57,036 Speaker 1: think they would say is that they have to recognize 114 00:06:57,836 --> 00:07:01,556 Speaker 1: not the normative claim that we ought to or we 115 00:07:01,676 --> 00:07:04,516 Speaker 1: might be able to generate twenty million tests a day, 116 00:07:05,036 --> 00:07:08,796 Speaker 1: but rather the predictive claim, because they engage in minute 117 00:07:08,796 --> 00:07:13,276 Speaker 1: a minute prediction too of whether this particular president, with 118 00:07:13,356 --> 00:07:19,836 Speaker 1: this particular configuration of economic forces facing him, is even 119 00:07:19,916 --> 00:07:24,356 Speaker 1: plausibly capable of doing what you think we normatively ought 120 00:07:24,356 --> 00:07:26,516 Speaker 1: to do. And I think someone would say, we concede 121 00:07:26,556 --> 00:07:28,596 Speaker 1: that it would, we should have twenty million testing. I've 122 00:07:28,596 --> 00:07:30,676 Speaker 1: not heard any of bidemiologists saying, oh, it doesn't matter 123 00:07:30,676 --> 00:07:32,636 Speaker 1: about the test. They all say we need the testing 124 00:07:32,716 --> 00:07:34,556 Speaker 1: we need in a very serious way. But if they 125 00:07:34,556 --> 00:07:38,236 Speaker 1: have a different assessment of the empirical probabilities. Well, yeah, 126 00:07:38,276 --> 00:07:41,076 Speaker 1: let me let me just say, you know, I understand that, 127 00:07:41,476 --> 00:07:44,116 Speaker 1: but I think people have to you know, stick to 128 00:07:44,196 --> 00:07:49,476 Speaker 1: their area of expertise. They understand the math of these models. 129 00:07:49,956 --> 00:07:57,076 Speaker 1: They're not experts in politics, public expenditure, mobilization. I don't 130 00:07:57,156 --> 00:08:00,396 Speaker 1: think they're the ones who should make for everybody the 131 00:08:00,476 --> 00:08:04,716 Speaker 1: judgment about what's politically feasible, and then, worst of all, 132 00:08:04,996 --> 00:08:09,916 Speaker 1: having made that judgment, hide it behind some phony assertion 133 00:08:09,996 --> 00:08:12,756 Speaker 1: like you'd have to test people ever every day. What 134 00:08:12,796 --> 00:08:15,076 Speaker 1: they should say, I think is the same thing I'm saying, 135 00:08:15,116 --> 00:08:17,196 Speaker 1: which is like, look, if you want to be sure 136 00:08:17,236 --> 00:08:20,956 Speaker 1: you're below with R zero below one, at any level 137 00:08:20,996 --> 00:08:23,276 Speaker 1: of prevalenced the United States, you're going to need to 138 00:08:23,276 --> 00:08:26,876 Speaker 1: test something like twenty million people a day. And then 139 00:08:27,076 --> 00:08:30,036 Speaker 1: let's leave it to others to figure out if setting 140 00:08:30,036 --> 00:08:32,876 Speaker 1: ourselves up to do that kind of testing would actually 141 00:08:33,116 --> 00:08:36,676 Speaker 1: be less costly than continuing to do what we're doing 142 00:08:36,676 --> 00:08:39,876 Speaker 1: to the economy. I think some epidemiologists, at least privately 143 00:08:39,956 --> 00:08:43,156 Speaker 1: worry that if they say more or less what you're saying, 144 00:08:43,676 --> 00:08:47,676 Speaker 1: that that's an invitation to the Trump administration to say, 145 00:08:47,796 --> 00:08:50,876 Speaker 1: even without the twenty million tests a day, we can 146 00:08:51,396 --> 00:08:55,836 Speaker 1: return to greater degree of normalcy, and that if that happens, 147 00:08:55,916 --> 00:08:58,876 Speaker 1: it could genuinely lead to a public health disaster. Yeah, 148 00:08:58,876 --> 00:09:00,796 Speaker 1: but let me just jump in, just head on in this, 149 00:09:00,796 --> 00:09:03,036 Speaker 1: because this is exactly the thing I've been saying to economists. 150 00:09:03,076 --> 00:09:05,956 Speaker 1: I would say exactly these things to anybody in science. 151 00:09:06,836 --> 00:09:11,236 Speaker 1: You cannot tell people things that are just factually untrue 152 00:09:12,116 --> 00:09:15,796 Speaker 1: because you think that the political spin is such that 153 00:09:15,956 --> 00:09:18,916 Speaker 1: will get better outcomes that way. And I'll give you 154 00:09:18,956 --> 00:09:21,316 Speaker 1: a very clear example of how this is coming back 155 00:09:21,356 --> 00:09:26,996 Speaker 1: to bite us. The WHO and some supporting authorities said, oh, 156 00:09:27,156 --> 00:09:31,196 Speaker 1: masks don't help, so don't use masks. Now, it's just 157 00:09:31,316 --> 00:09:34,276 Speaker 1: not true. If you've got everybody who goes out in 158 00:09:34,356 --> 00:09:36,996 Speaker 1: New York City, for example, to wear a mask, that 159 00:09:37,036 --> 00:09:41,516 Speaker 1: could reduce our zero The reason they said something that 160 00:09:41,676 --> 00:09:46,236 Speaker 1: wasn't true is because they were worried, quite reasonably, that 161 00:09:46,356 --> 00:09:49,236 Speaker 1: we don't have enough masks. That were worried if people 162 00:09:49,316 --> 00:09:52,396 Speaker 1: ran out to buy masks, we wouldn't have masks for 163 00:09:52,436 --> 00:09:54,596 Speaker 1: the people in the hospitals who need them the most. 164 00:09:55,436 --> 00:09:58,716 Speaker 1: But it was a huge mistake to say something that 165 00:09:58,836 --> 00:10:03,516 Speaker 1: was misleading, bordering on being false. To try and achieve 166 00:10:03,556 --> 00:10:07,796 Speaker 1: a good outcome. What scientists need to do is stick 167 00:10:07,876 --> 00:10:13,916 Speaker 1: to what's true, protect our credibility, and then tell others well, 168 00:10:14,276 --> 00:10:18,276 Speaker 1: given that it's true that masks will protect people, you 169 00:10:18,316 --> 00:10:21,356 Speaker 1: may face a sudden surge in the demand for masks. 170 00:10:21,476 --> 00:10:23,636 Speaker 1: You better move right away to make sure that your 171 00:10:23,636 --> 00:10:26,556 Speaker 1: hospital workers have the masks. They get the first in 172 00:10:26,596 --> 00:10:29,716 Speaker 1: line to get those masks. But we just should have 173 00:10:29,756 --> 00:10:32,556 Speaker 1: stuck to the truth there. And my answer to the 174 00:10:32,676 --> 00:10:36,756 Speaker 1: epidemiologist right now is the same. I don't see any 175 00:10:36,876 --> 00:10:41,796 Speaker 1: danger in saying consistently, if we test on the scale 176 00:10:41,796 --> 00:10:45,116 Speaker 1: of twenty million people a day and we isolate everybody 177 00:10:45,156 --> 00:10:49,356 Speaker 1: who's positive, everybody else can return to work and we 178 00:10:49,476 --> 00:10:53,396 Speaker 1: can contain this pandemic. And if you need to go 179 00:10:53,476 --> 00:10:56,156 Speaker 1: on and say, if we just start sending people to 180 00:10:56,196 --> 00:11:00,876 Speaker 1: work without testing, without any strategy for identifying who's positive 181 00:11:01,116 --> 00:11:05,156 Speaker 1: and isolating them, we will kill hundreds of thousands of people. 182 00:11:05,676 --> 00:11:07,996 Speaker 1: I just don't see why those are hard statements to 183 00:11:08,116 --> 00:11:11,996 Speaker 1: make clearly and directly to the public. We'll be back 184 00:11:12,036 --> 00:11:22,996 Speaker 1: in just a moment. I want to ask you about 185 00:11:23,036 --> 00:11:26,916 Speaker 1: this potential disciplinary gap that you're describing, and maybe I 186 00:11:26,956 --> 00:11:29,796 Speaker 1: should be more aggressive and say maybe there's even a 187 00:11:29,836 --> 00:11:34,356 Speaker 1: disciplinary war that's emerging. And roughly speaking, there are the epidemiologists, 188 00:11:34,636 --> 00:11:37,636 Speaker 1: most of whom also have mds as well as new 189 00:11:37,676 --> 00:11:40,636 Speaker 1: degrees in public health or statistics on the one hand, 190 00:11:41,076 --> 00:11:44,396 Speaker 1: and on the other hand are economists, and each is 191 00:11:44,436 --> 00:11:47,716 Speaker 1: sort of in his or her element, because the public 192 00:11:47,716 --> 00:11:51,356 Speaker 1: health epidemiologists are spending their whole lives studying what happens 193 00:11:51,356 --> 00:11:54,436 Speaker 1: when disease spreads, and disease is greatly dangerous and is spreading, 194 00:11:54,716 --> 00:11:58,276 Speaker 1: and the economists spend their whole careers studying what happens 195 00:11:58,316 --> 00:12:01,356 Speaker 1: in especially to people do macro studying the rise and 196 00:12:01,436 --> 00:12:03,996 Speaker 1: fall of economies, and our economy is now in a 197 00:12:04,116 --> 00:12:08,716 Speaker 1: kind of a free fall. Each says, my disaster is very, 198 00:12:08,836 --> 00:12:10,916 Speaker 1: very bad. It needs to be taken seriously, and there's 199 00:12:10,916 --> 00:12:13,836 Speaker 1: a kind of struggle going on. It sounds like perhaps 200 00:12:13,876 --> 00:12:17,996 Speaker 1: this is hypothesis over which struggle is the greatest, which 201 00:12:18,036 --> 00:12:20,836 Speaker 1: challenges the greatest, where the priorities should lie. And there 202 00:12:20,836 --> 00:12:26,276 Speaker 1: also maybe some epistemological differences, because the epidemiologists are accustomed 203 00:12:26,316 --> 00:12:29,076 Speaker 1: to thinking about avoiding harm, and they don't spend a 204 00:12:29,116 --> 00:12:32,676 Speaker 1: lot of time thinking about costs and benefits, and in contrast, 205 00:12:32,716 --> 00:12:36,356 Speaker 1: the economist's whole undertaking is to think about costs and benefits. 206 00:12:36,876 --> 00:12:39,356 Speaker 1: Does that resonate at all with what you're observing. I 207 00:12:39,396 --> 00:12:41,676 Speaker 1: think there's a lot of truth in what you said there, 208 00:12:41,756 --> 00:12:45,596 Speaker 1: so I don't disagree with that at all. I also 209 00:12:45,636 --> 00:12:48,756 Speaker 1: think that's important to remember that I think everybody, the 210 00:12:49,036 --> 00:12:52,556 Speaker 1: vast majority of people operating in these different camps, are 211 00:12:52,676 --> 00:12:56,036 Speaker 1: doing so with good intentions and in good faith. So 212 00:12:56,156 --> 00:12:58,836 Speaker 1: this isn't a case of bad actors. I think it 213 00:12:58,916 --> 00:13:04,076 Speaker 1: is hard to appreciate the perspectives and the arguments of others, 214 00:13:04,876 --> 00:13:07,276 Speaker 1: But let me just say that, you know, Alan Garber 215 00:13:07,396 --> 00:13:10,716 Speaker 1: is actually an MD and the p HD economist. He's 216 00:13:10,756 --> 00:13:14,316 Speaker 1: not an epidemiologist modeler, but you know he certainly knows 217 00:13:14,356 --> 00:13:16,956 Speaker 1: those guys. So Alan and I were really, in a sense, 218 00:13:16,996 --> 00:13:20,756 Speaker 1: trying to bring these two communities together. And the ironic 219 00:13:20,836 --> 00:13:23,636 Speaker 1: part if you extend that you think about the public 220 00:13:23,636 --> 00:13:26,236 Speaker 1: health people, if you think about what Alan and I 221 00:13:26,316 --> 00:13:30,716 Speaker 1: are saying, we're saying, in effect, those economists who are 222 00:13:30,716 --> 00:13:33,756 Speaker 1: telling you all about stimulus and so forth, we're spending 223 00:13:33,916 --> 00:13:37,956 Speaker 1: way too much on their proposal, and we're not spending 224 00:13:38,076 --> 00:13:41,276 Speaker 1: nearly enough on the kind of thing that you and 225 00:13:41,436 --> 00:13:44,956 Speaker 1: public health have been arguing for for so many years. 226 00:13:45,356 --> 00:13:47,836 Speaker 1: So oddly, you know, on the public health side, we're 227 00:13:47,836 --> 00:13:49,956 Speaker 1: coming in from the outside, but we're saying, actually, you know, 228 00:13:49,996 --> 00:13:52,436 Speaker 1: you guys were right, and we should have been spending 229 00:13:52,796 --> 00:13:55,596 Speaker 1: billions more on you, and so let's just do it 230 00:13:55,636 --> 00:13:59,316 Speaker 1: in a hurry. Now. There's a special dimension that makes 231 00:13:59,316 --> 00:14:02,676 Speaker 1: it a little bit tough in the epidemiological community right now, 232 00:14:03,036 --> 00:14:07,196 Speaker 1: which is that they have been attacked, basically by trolls 233 00:14:07,716 --> 00:14:10,916 Speaker 1: who are trying to say, like this Imperial College study 234 00:14:11,076 --> 00:14:14,236 Speaker 1: with many deaths and some of these other studies were 235 00:14:14,276 --> 00:14:19,516 Speaker 1: politically motivated. So they've been blindsided by suddenly being pulled 236 00:14:19,556 --> 00:14:23,836 Speaker 1: into the world of the trolls and vitriol and lies, 237 00:14:24,276 --> 00:14:27,476 Speaker 1: and they don't quite know how to respond. Some of them, 238 00:14:27,676 --> 00:14:32,276 Speaker 1: understandably are feeling defensive, and you know, at first glance 239 00:14:32,796 --> 00:14:35,076 Speaker 1: they may worry a little bit about, well, how do 240 00:14:35,116 --> 00:14:38,036 Speaker 1: we know that Romer and Garber aren't just you know, 241 00:14:38,196 --> 00:14:41,396 Speaker 1: kind of one more subtle attempt at troll lists and 242 00:14:41,516 --> 00:14:44,676 Speaker 1: undermine our credibility. But here I think what we need 243 00:14:44,716 --> 00:14:47,796 Speaker 1: to do is just engage and engage on the specifics. 244 00:14:48,156 --> 00:14:51,956 Speaker 1: Take each other's arguments seriously, and I think we should 245 00:14:51,996 --> 00:14:55,316 Speaker 1: be able to all come to consensus around some of 246 00:14:55,356 --> 00:14:59,716 Speaker 1: these basics, like even if we don't know things like prevalence, 247 00:15:00,316 --> 00:15:03,996 Speaker 1: if we test at a sufficient scale and then isolate 248 00:15:04,036 --> 00:15:08,116 Speaker 1: the people who test positive, we can get below our zero. 249 00:15:08,276 --> 00:15:09,956 Speaker 1: And then from the on a side, I think we 250 00:15:09,996 --> 00:15:12,036 Speaker 1: can say, and this is a policy we can stick 251 00:15:12,036 --> 00:15:15,836 Speaker 1: with indefinitely. Everybody who tells you, well, I've got this 252 00:15:15,916 --> 00:15:19,436 Speaker 1: policy and I know it's so damaging that we can't 253 00:15:19,476 --> 00:15:21,316 Speaker 1: do it for very long, but let's just do it 254 00:15:21,356 --> 00:15:25,396 Speaker 1: for a little while and then and then they never say, well, 255 00:15:25,436 --> 00:15:28,636 Speaker 1: and then we'll do something else. We should be extremely 256 00:15:28,636 --> 00:15:30,756 Speaker 1: skeptical right now of anybody who says, well, just do 257 00:15:30,796 --> 00:15:33,716 Speaker 1: this really damaging thing and then we'll make it up 258 00:15:33,756 --> 00:15:36,556 Speaker 1: as we go. Do you have a view on whether 259 00:15:36,836 --> 00:15:40,436 Speaker 1: President Trump should be invoking the Defense Production Act in 260 00:15:40,516 --> 00:15:44,196 Speaker 1: order to compel the kinds of investments that you're talking about. 261 00:15:44,236 --> 00:15:46,276 Speaker 1: I mean, the analogy to World War Two and to 262 00:15:46,356 --> 00:15:49,156 Speaker 1: other wars is pretty striking here. What the World War 263 00:15:49,196 --> 00:15:51,916 Speaker 1: Two historians are always telling us is that the build 264 00:15:51,956 --> 00:15:55,076 Speaker 1: up post Pearl Harbor actually really took a while. You 265 00:15:55,116 --> 00:15:56,596 Speaker 1: know that it took a couple of years for the 266 00:15:56,676 --> 00:15:59,036 Speaker 1: United States to generate the kind of They also think 267 00:15:59,036 --> 00:16:00,676 Speaker 1: that the United States won the war because if it's 268 00:16:00,716 --> 00:16:03,156 Speaker 1: capacity to mobilize production. So, don't get me wrong, they're 269 00:16:03,156 --> 00:16:05,476 Speaker 1: in broad agreement with you. But there's a question of temporality. 270 00:16:07,076 --> 00:16:09,676 Speaker 1: There's two ways to respond to a question like that. 271 00:16:10,156 --> 00:16:15,476 Speaker 1: One is yes, indeed, President Trump should or President Trump 272 00:16:15,556 --> 00:16:19,436 Speaker 1: should not. I think we, just as economists, have to 273 00:16:19,436 --> 00:16:22,476 Speaker 1: get out of the mode of thinking that we're philosopher 274 00:16:22,596 --> 00:16:26,436 Speaker 1: kings who can tell somebody else here's what you should do. 275 00:16:27,036 --> 00:16:29,796 Speaker 1: You know, and it takes self control and discipline. Those 276 00:16:29,796 --> 00:16:32,796 Speaker 1: are not the right kind of answers to provide. But 277 00:16:32,996 --> 00:16:35,436 Speaker 1: here's the kind of answer that I think would be helpful. 278 00:16:35,996 --> 00:16:39,276 Speaker 1: Here's why something like the Defense Production Act might help 279 00:16:39,356 --> 00:16:44,236 Speaker 1: us ramp up production very quickly. Think about just masks 280 00:16:44,476 --> 00:16:48,276 Speaker 1: or body suits. We say to a manufacturer, we'd like 281 00:16:48,356 --> 00:16:51,196 Speaker 1: you to increase the output of your equipment by a 282 00:16:51,196 --> 00:16:53,996 Speaker 1: factor of ten so we can get a surge of 283 00:16:54,036 --> 00:16:56,676 Speaker 1: production in the next few weeks and months to then 284 00:16:56,916 --> 00:17:00,636 Speaker 1: meet the sudden demand we're facing. And we want you 285 00:17:00,676 --> 00:17:03,316 Speaker 1: to do it at the same price. Sell your goods 286 00:17:03,316 --> 00:17:06,316 Speaker 1: at the same price you were selling your goods before. Well, 287 00:17:06,356 --> 00:17:09,276 Speaker 1: the manufacturer then says, listen, you're asking me to buy 288 00:17:09,276 --> 00:17:12,236 Speaker 1: all this equipment which will last for like ten years, 289 00:17:12,836 --> 00:17:16,676 Speaker 1: and you're asking me to run this equipment for maybe 290 00:17:16,956 --> 00:17:20,076 Speaker 1: two or three months, six months. The demand might go away, 291 00:17:20,676 --> 00:17:23,676 Speaker 1: and then I've paid for equipment that could have been 292 00:17:23,716 --> 00:17:26,196 Speaker 1: producing for ten years, but I only get to use 293 00:17:26,196 --> 00:17:29,116 Speaker 1: it for six months, and then I'm going to suffer 294 00:17:29,196 --> 00:17:33,916 Speaker 1: huge losses if I operate that way. So if the 295 00:17:33,956 --> 00:17:37,756 Speaker 1: market operated the way we describe it in the textbooks, 296 00:17:38,196 --> 00:17:40,236 Speaker 1: we just say, okay, well, the market price for a 297 00:17:40,356 --> 00:17:43,556 Speaker 1: surge in production of masks is like ten times what 298 00:17:43,596 --> 00:17:46,876 Speaker 1: the market price was before, and that will help you 299 00:17:47,036 --> 00:17:50,956 Speaker 1: give you an incentive, mister manufacturer, miss manufacturer, to take 300 00:17:50,996 --> 00:17:52,716 Speaker 1: a risk that you're going to end up with obsolete 301 00:17:52,796 --> 00:17:55,996 Speaker 1: capital equipment in a few months. But now we have 302 00:17:56,036 --> 00:17:59,116 Speaker 1: this constraint, which is just a fact, which is that 303 00:17:59,716 --> 00:18:04,236 Speaker 1: many people, the vast majority of people, respond moralistically to 304 00:18:04,276 --> 00:18:08,876 Speaker 1: what they see as price gouging or kind of opportunism. 305 00:18:09,356 --> 00:18:12,716 Speaker 1: So the realities, we can't let the market do its 306 00:18:12,796 --> 00:18:17,396 Speaker 1: job with high prices to motivate surge production. So what 307 00:18:17,596 --> 00:18:19,636 Speaker 1: might work in a case like this is for the 308 00:18:19,676 --> 00:18:23,716 Speaker 1: government to say, Okay, we'll buy the equipment for the 309 00:18:23,916 --> 00:18:26,876 Speaker 1: production line. We'll rent it to you on a month 310 00:18:26,956 --> 00:18:31,156 Speaker 1: by month basis. You provide the workers, you do the design, 311 00:18:31,196 --> 00:18:34,556 Speaker 1: the manufacturing, sell the masks is something like the prices 312 00:18:34,596 --> 00:18:37,716 Speaker 1: you sold before, and then if it turns out the 313 00:18:37,756 --> 00:18:41,196 Speaker 1: demand falls off in a few months, you can stop 314 00:18:41,276 --> 00:18:44,196 Speaker 1: paying rent on the machines. We the government eat the 315 00:18:44,276 --> 00:18:47,676 Speaker 1: loss of machines that are now obsolete. I think this 316 00:18:47,716 --> 00:18:53,396 Speaker 1: would be a socially acceptable way to radically scale up production. 317 00:18:54,236 --> 00:18:58,516 Speaker 1: And the trick here is to avoid the moralistic kind 318 00:18:58,556 --> 00:19:04,156 Speaker 1: of analysis and just look pragmatically and say, gee, if 319 00:19:04,156 --> 00:19:08,036 Speaker 1: we're talking about a surge, somebody might bear some costs 320 00:19:08,076 --> 00:19:11,916 Speaker 1: because equipment be obsolete in a few months, and we 321 00:19:11,996 --> 00:19:15,476 Speaker 1: as taxpayers would like our government to bear that cost 322 00:19:15,636 --> 00:19:18,356 Speaker 1: because we really want to get this equipment very quickly. 323 00:19:18,996 --> 00:19:20,676 Speaker 1: And that I think could be done either with or 324 00:19:20,676 --> 00:19:22,876 Speaker 1: without the DPA. The DPA might be an effective way 325 00:19:22,876 --> 00:19:24,956 Speaker 1: of doing it, but I think their statutory room for 326 00:19:24,956 --> 00:19:27,756 Speaker 1: the president to do what you described in a voluntary 327 00:19:27,796 --> 00:19:31,636 Speaker 1: deal with the companies without having to invoke centralized industrial control. Yeah, 328 00:19:31,876 --> 00:19:34,036 Speaker 1: I think, And there's just been some lack of clarity 329 00:19:34,156 --> 00:19:37,236 Speaker 1: like this is also unfamiliar, and we're moving so fast. 330 00:19:37,756 --> 00:19:41,276 Speaker 1: I think some firms are worried that how the DPA 331 00:19:41,356 --> 00:19:45,596 Speaker 1: will be used is that some official will say you 332 00:19:45,676 --> 00:19:48,916 Speaker 1: have to expand your production of masks, you have to 333 00:19:48,996 --> 00:19:52,156 Speaker 1: charge the prices from before. In effect, you have to 334 00:19:52,196 --> 00:19:55,396 Speaker 1: bear the cost of the equipment which may turn out 335 00:19:55,396 --> 00:19:57,796 Speaker 1: to be obsolete very soon. So as long as we 336 00:19:57,836 --> 00:20:00,196 Speaker 1: make it clear that the DPA is really a mechanism 337 00:20:00,516 --> 00:20:03,676 Speaker 1: for just brokering a deal that is the deal that 338 00:20:03,716 --> 00:20:08,556 Speaker 1: we as taxpayers and citizens want, but which for variety 339 00:20:08,556 --> 00:20:11,876 Speaker 1: of reasons, we can't allow through a mechanism where we 340 00:20:11,916 --> 00:20:14,476 Speaker 1: just pay a very high price for production. Right now, 341 00:20:14,836 --> 00:20:16,796 Speaker 1: this is just a mechanism that would let us use 342 00:20:16,796 --> 00:20:20,156 Speaker 1: our government to broker the deal we want, which is fundamentally, 343 00:20:20,196 --> 00:20:23,476 Speaker 1: we just need the masks as fast as possible. Paul, 344 00:20:23,556 --> 00:20:26,036 Speaker 1: let me ask you one more question before you go, 345 00:20:26,116 --> 00:20:28,116 Speaker 1: and this has to do with the relationship between your 346 00:20:28,156 --> 00:20:31,636 Speaker 1: own academic expertise and trajectory and the work that one 347 00:20:31,676 --> 00:20:35,316 Speaker 1: of the Nobel Prize and your views in this particular crisis. 348 00:20:35,756 --> 00:20:39,196 Speaker 1: So at a very gross level of generality, your works 349 00:20:39,316 --> 00:20:42,796 Speaker 1: innovation had a lot to do with taking into account 350 00:20:42,876 --> 00:20:47,156 Speaker 1: in models of macroeconomic growth the way that new ideas, innovations, 351 00:20:47,396 --> 00:20:52,356 Speaker 1: and technological change actually affect trajectories. Do you find that 352 00:20:52,556 --> 00:20:54,476 Speaker 1: when you're thinking about this set of problems and you're 353 00:20:54,516 --> 00:20:57,196 Speaker 1: staking out your own position, that your view maybe in 354 00:20:57,236 --> 00:20:59,916 Speaker 1: some direct way influenced by your sense that, yes, we're 355 00:20:59,956 --> 00:21:02,716 Speaker 1: in this crisis. Yes there's a trajectory that the epidemiologists 356 00:21:02,756 --> 00:21:05,996 Speaker 1: and others are predicting, but they're not taking into account 357 00:21:06,076 --> 00:21:09,956 Speaker 1: the kinds of innovative interventions they could be undertaken of, 358 00:21:10,076 --> 00:21:13,996 Speaker 1: precisely the kind you are talking about. Yeah, I'm one 359 00:21:14,036 --> 00:21:16,356 Speaker 1: thing about using Twitter, as it does force you to 360 00:21:16,436 --> 00:21:19,356 Speaker 1: boil things down. I sent out a tweet where I 361 00:21:19,396 --> 00:21:21,876 Speaker 1: said that I've spent my whole career trying to make 362 00:21:21,916 --> 00:21:27,156 Speaker 1: a single point, which is just because something is unfamiliar, 363 00:21:27,836 --> 00:21:31,596 Speaker 1: it doesn't mean it's impossible. Now, I mean, who can 364 00:21:31,716 --> 00:21:35,436 Speaker 1: argue with that. But it's something which we don't keep 365 00:21:35,676 --> 00:21:38,596 Speaker 1: track of, we don't think about. So when somebody says, 366 00:21:39,156 --> 00:21:42,676 Speaker 1: testing twenty million people, basically I've never seen that. I 367 00:21:42,756 --> 00:21:45,396 Speaker 1: have no experience with that. That's so unfamiliar. Oh that 368 00:21:45,476 --> 00:21:50,596 Speaker 1: must be impossible. No, actually, it's not impossible. And every 369 00:21:50,636 --> 00:21:52,796 Speaker 1: time we go down a path where we try and 370 00:21:52,876 --> 00:21:55,756 Speaker 1: do something new, when we try to estimate, well, how 371 00:21:55,756 --> 00:21:59,196 Speaker 1: hard is this going to be, it's inevitably much less hard, 372 00:21:59,356 --> 00:22:03,876 Speaker 1: much less costly than we think, because we discover ways 373 00:22:04,116 --> 00:22:05,876 Speaker 1: to do it once we start trying to do it. 374 00:22:05,916 --> 00:22:08,556 Speaker 1: We discover ways to do it that we never even 375 00:22:08,596 --> 00:22:12,116 Speaker 1: knew we're possible. So I'm not only confident that we 376 00:22:12,156 --> 00:22:15,156 Speaker 1: could afford to scale out exactly what we're doing right now, 377 00:22:15,476 --> 00:22:19,156 Speaker 1: but absolutely certain that if we start doing that, we're 378 00:22:19,156 --> 00:22:21,516 Speaker 1: going to find ways to do it at much lower 379 00:22:21,556 --> 00:22:26,636 Speaker 1: cost and much more quickly, much less disruption than anybody 380 00:22:26,956 --> 00:22:29,516 Speaker 1: imagines right now. And you know, and you can actually 381 00:22:29,556 --> 00:22:33,116 Speaker 1: go back and look at various episodes like how hard 382 00:22:33,196 --> 00:22:36,316 Speaker 1: is it going to be to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions 383 00:22:36,436 --> 00:22:39,996 Speaker 1: that caused acid rain? Or like how hard is it 384 00:22:40,036 --> 00:22:43,676 Speaker 1: going to be to stop using the chlorofluorocarbons which we're 385 00:22:43,756 --> 00:22:46,436 Speaker 1: destroying the ozone layer. You go back and read that, 386 00:22:46,716 --> 00:22:49,196 Speaker 1: you know, the literature in the debate before it was 387 00:22:49,276 --> 00:22:50,996 Speaker 1: like this is going to be the end of life 388 00:22:50,996 --> 00:22:53,876 Speaker 1: as we know it if we don't have chlorofluorocarbons, but 389 00:22:53,996 --> 00:22:56,556 Speaker 1: you know, we banned them. We found an alternative, we 390 00:22:56,676 --> 00:22:59,596 Speaker 1: stopped using them, and you know as bradiodorant and just 391 00:22:59,756 --> 00:23:04,396 Speaker 1: roll on deodorant. You know, there's an almost unlimited infinite 392 00:23:04,436 --> 00:23:08,956 Speaker 1: number of alternative ways to do things, but because they're unfamiliar, 393 00:23:09,356 --> 00:23:12,316 Speaker 1: we tend to think they're not possible, and we need 394 00:23:12,356 --> 00:23:16,076 Speaker 1: to just lose that kind of fear and commit to 395 00:23:16,836 --> 00:23:19,876 Speaker 1: let's go down this path. We don't know exactly how 396 00:23:19,916 --> 00:23:21,276 Speaker 1: we're going to do it, but we're going to find 397 00:23:21,276 --> 00:23:23,676 Speaker 1: a way to do it, and once we commit, it'll 398 00:23:23,676 --> 00:23:28,036 Speaker 1: turn out fine. Paul, thank you very much for your insights. 399 00:23:28,076 --> 00:23:30,516 Speaker 1: I think your core insight, which you described as spending 400 00:23:30,556 --> 00:23:34,076 Speaker 1: your career on that unfamiliarity is not the same thing 401 00:23:34,076 --> 00:23:38,156 Speaker 1: as impossibility, is tremendously valuable in this particular moment, and 402 00:23:38,556 --> 00:23:42,036 Speaker 1: I want to join you in hoping that we're able 403 00:23:42,076 --> 00:23:46,356 Speaker 1: to scale up testing and other interventions with the kind 404 00:23:46,396 --> 00:23:49,636 Speaker 1: of speed and capacity that it would take on your 405 00:23:49,636 --> 00:23:52,076 Speaker 1: account to make the interventions that you were talking about. 406 00:23:52,116 --> 00:23:53,636 Speaker 1: Thank you very much for your time. Well, thanks for 407 00:23:53,716 --> 00:23:57,836 Speaker 1: being so you know, so patient with my vehemence and 408 00:23:57,636 --> 00:24:00,316 Speaker 1: my arguments, not at all that's that's a sign of 409 00:24:00,316 --> 00:24:02,756 Speaker 1: passion in a moment when we need we need lots 410 00:24:02,756 --> 00:24:07,276 Speaker 1: of that. Talking to Paul Romer was genuinely fascinating for me. 411 00:24:07,876 --> 00:24:10,556 Speaker 1: The passion with which he expressed his point of view 412 00:24:10,996 --> 00:24:14,636 Speaker 1: captures to my mind the intensity of this moment and 413 00:24:14,716 --> 00:24:17,716 Speaker 1: the importance of listening seriously to experts of all kinds 414 00:24:17,916 --> 00:24:20,596 Speaker 1: as we try to chart a course forward. On the 415 00:24:20,636 --> 00:24:24,316 Speaker 1: one hand, I benefited hugely from hearing the core insight 416 00:24:24,596 --> 00:24:27,196 Speaker 1: that Paul described as the primary one of his career 417 00:24:27,196 --> 00:24:29,596 Speaker 1: and for which he won the Nobel Prize, namely that 418 00:24:29,676 --> 00:24:33,796 Speaker 1: the unfamiliarity of a challenge does not translate into the 419 00:24:33,876 --> 00:24:37,516 Speaker 1: impossibility of a new and creative response to it. On 420 00:24:37,556 --> 00:24:39,676 Speaker 1: the other hand, I was a little surprised to discover 421 00:24:39,796 --> 00:24:44,156 Speaker 1: myself defending the epidemiologists in this conversation against a rather 422 00:24:44,356 --> 00:24:47,956 Speaker 1: sharp charge that they're not doing the math properly, or 423 00:24:47,956 --> 00:24:50,796 Speaker 1: that they're failing to take into account the capacity of 424 00:24:50,836 --> 00:24:54,996 Speaker 1: the system to respond and to produce twenty million tests 425 00:24:55,036 --> 00:24:58,236 Speaker 1: a day. In the end, I think a significant part 426 00:24:58,276 --> 00:25:01,836 Speaker 1: of the dispute between Paul and the epidemiologists depends on 427 00:25:01,876 --> 00:25:06,396 Speaker 1: the question of empirical reality. Namely, can we actually do this? 428 00:25:06,916 --> 00:25:09,116 Speaker 1: And on that question, you'd have to be a genuin 429 00:25:09,236 --> 00:25:12,956 Speaker 1: and profit to give a definitive answer. Until I speak 430 00:25:12,956 --> 00:25:16,236 Speaker 1: to you again, Be safe, be careful, and be well. 431 00:25:20,716 --> 00:25:23,676 Speaker 1: Deep Background is brought to you by Pushkin Industries. Our 432 00:25:23,756 --> 00:25:27,716 Speaker 1: producer is Lydia gene Coott, with research help from Zooie Wynn. 433 00:25:28,156 --> 00:25:31,836 Speaker 1: Mastering is by Jason Gambrel and Martin Gonzalez. Our showrunner 434 00:25:31,876 --> 00:25:34,796 Speaker 1: is Sophie mckibbn. Our theme music is composed by Luis 435 00:25:34,876 --> 00:25:39,276 Speaker 1: GERA special thanks to the Pushkin Brass, Malcolm Gladwell, Jacob Weisberg, 436 00:25:39,316 --> 00:25:42,516 Speaker 1: and Mia Lobel. I'm Noah Feldman. I also write a 437 00:25:42,596 --> 00:25:45,236 Speaker 1: regular column for Bloomberg Opinion, which you can find at 438 00:25:45,236 --> 00:25:49,556 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com slash Feldman. To discover Bloomberg's original slate 439 00:25:49,596 --> 00:25:53,876 Speaker 1: of podcasts, go to Bloomberg dot com slash Podcasts. You 440 00:25:53,916 --> 00:25:57,076 Speaker 1: can follow me on Twitter at Noah R. Feldman. This 441 00:25:57,476 --> 00:25:58,476 Speaker 1: is Deep Background.