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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of this information.

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Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree?

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Speaker 3: Shoot?

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Speaker 2: Great?

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Speaker 1: One five dollars.

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Speaker 3: This is a row of lesson copping the tackle ship

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Speaker 3: one man, You're saying that humans need fantasy to make

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Speaker 3: life bearable.

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Speaker 1: Humans need fantasy to be human? My goodness, that misspeak.

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Speaker 1: You guys are prose bests, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 2: All right, hit that horn, babe.

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Speaker 1: Let's what's up everybody? And welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast.

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Speaker 3: This is your DFS preview for Super Bowl fifty seven

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Speaker 3: between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. I'm

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Speaker 3: your host Chris Raybon, joining me as always for the

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Speaker 3: final Fantasy Flex episode of the season.

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Speaker 1: Sean Kerner, Shawn, what's going on?

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Speaker 2: What's up? Man?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we made it. I'm coming off another good week

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Speaker 4: with five know. I even lucked out on my DeVante

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Speaker 4: Smith to lead that game in receiving yards at plus

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Speaker 4: two seventy. He won that market with thirty six yards.

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Speaker 4: Just how ridiculous.

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Speaker 1: And one of those catches, the twenty iire catch shouldn't count.

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Speaker 4: Counted, So I got so lucky on that. What a ridiculous,

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Speaker 4: ridiculous game.

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Speaker 2: Just awful.

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Speaker 4: Feel bad for you know, pretty Josh Johnson Niners. But

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Speaker 4: definitely lucked out with that one. But how you doing,

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Speaker 4: I'm doing good.

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Speaker 3: I had a I almost was the donkey, like I

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Speaker 3: I would have gone undefeated on my that game props.

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Speaker 3: And then I bet like three more all right, Like

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Speaker 3: once Mitchell's out, I bet McCaffrey over Harry's. He needed

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Speaker 3: that last drive, that third down again, so luckily I

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Speaker 3: got that. I also took the Niners plus three, so

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Speaker 3: obviously that that.

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Speaker 1: That went nowhere.

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Speaker 3: Oh h And I had Debo over rushing as well,

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Speaker 3: and yeah, I think he gave him enough chances, like the.

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Speaker 4: Test with the Yeah, the defense is new, you know,

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Speaker 4: they can't throw, so Debo's getting the ball on a handoff.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, that was ridiculous.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And you know, for everybody listening, be sure to

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Speaker 3: check out the Action Network podcast channel because we'll have

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Speaker 3: a ton of episodes leading up to the Super Bowl

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Speaker 3: over on that channel. We'll have the Propapalooza next week,

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Speaker 3: which is where Sean and I we'll go through just

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Speaker 3: all the props we're betting for the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: Of course.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's your specialty, your specialty hell yeah, so.

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Speaker 1: You know, be sure to tune in for that.

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Speaker 3: We'll have Stucky and I will be on a couple

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Speaker 3: more times before the season ends previewing the game. We'll

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Speaker 3: also have an episode with Evan Abrams for trends and yeah,

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Speaker 3: so a lot of good stuff.

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Speaker 1: But as far as this, we'll do the DFS.

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Speaker 3: Breakdown here since we have the prices, and we'll kind

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Speaker 3: of talk through some things here and then be sure

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Speaker 3: to check out the Action Network pod channel for everything else.

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Speaker 3: And just want to shout out our contest winner for

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Speaker 3: this week, but Nasty seven three seven three seven three, congratulations,

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Speaker 3: thanks for the.

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Speaker 1: Rating and review.

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Speaker 3: Be sure to hit up Podcasts at Actionnetwork dot com

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Speaker 3: to claim your free year of Action Pro. All right,

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Speaker 3: here we go, Super Bowl fifty seven, Kansas City, Philadelphia.

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Speaker 3: We're going to kind of go through everybody here, but

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Speaker 3: let's start with you know, when you're gooding your lineups

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Speaker 3: in the captain spot, who do you think essentially is

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Speaker 3: going to have the best game here fantasy wise in

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Speaker 3: this one?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so you know, last week I got a little

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Speaker 4: bit sneaky by taking Mahomes for the AFC Championship, and

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Speaker 4: sure enough he was only rostered on about eight percent

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Speaker 4: of teams in the captain slot and the main GPP,

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Speaker 4: but he looked great. He should be closer hundred percent,

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Speaker 4: so his rostership will probably be back to normal levels.

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Speaker 4: So I'm going the route you've been going the past

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Speaker 4: couple weeks, and that's just Jalen Hurts in the captain slot.

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Speaker 4: I think, you know, he hasn't needed to do much

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Speaker 4: in the first two playoff games. He's been hell below

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Speaker 4: one hundred and sixty passing yards and forty rushing yards

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Speaker 4: in both games. His shoulder, he said, it's still a

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Speaker 4: lot one hundred percent, but I think the extra week

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Speaker 4: of rest should help. So you know, for the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 4: he's gonna get max usage here in the passing game

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Speaker 4: and the running game. So the chances of him just

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Speaker 4: you know, handing the ball off the Kenny Gamel in

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Speaker 4: Boston Scott for the entire fourth quarter is much lower here.

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Speaker 4: I think this is going to be a close game,

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Speaker 4: possibly even a trailing game script, so you know, he's

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Speaker 4: just gonna have max susage, and as always, his rushing

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Speaker 4: touch on upside is what makes him such a great

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Speaker 4: captain play. Every time he rushes for a touchdown that

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Speaker 4: takes away from everybody else, although I will say I

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Speaker 4: think that the pivot I would make would be to

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Speaker 4: just use AJ Brown and the captain slot. You know,

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Speaker 4: the Chiefs have played man coverage at a top ten rate,

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Speaker 4: and Brown his torchman coverage with a three point twenty

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Speaker 4: five yards per run rate on the seasons. You know,

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Speaker 4: the Chiefs do mix it up with their coverage, so

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Speaker 4: there's no guarantee they're going to play more man coverage here,

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Speaker 4: So just this is a spot where Brown should thrive.

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Speaker 4: The Chiefs do ranked thirty first in DVA against number

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Speaker 4: one wide receivers, and you know, last week the hip

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Speaker 4: injury didn't seem to slow AJ Brown at all, so

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Speaker 4: he should be one hundred percent for the super Bowl,

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Speaker 4: and he was clearly frustrated in the divisional round, so

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Speaker 4: I think they made it a point. You know, the

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Speaker 4: squeaky wheel treatment last game, and they were just targeting

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Speaker 4: him early and often even underneath. So his thirty one

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Speaker 4: percent target per route run rate was the fourth time

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Speaker 4: this season he's seen over a thirty percent target per

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Speaker 4: route run rate. So I think they're clearly going to

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Speaker 4: get him the ball early and often here so he's

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Speaker 4: he's the kind of guy the massive upside I like

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Speaker 4: in the captain slot.

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Speaker 2: Form a wide receiver. So for me, it's Hurts and

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Speaker 2: Brown all the way here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like Hurts as well because Mahomes we still

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Speaker 3: don't know where he's going to be in terms of

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Speaker 3: the rushing and so I like Hurts because you know,

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Speaker 3: when you put him in a catain spot, yeah, he

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Speaker 3: could throw for touchdowns and you could kind of stat

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Speaker 3: guys in reverse.

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Speaker 1: But he's also a really good bet to get a

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Speaker 1: rush score.

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Speaker 3: He's gotten one in eleven of seventeen games this year,

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Speaker 3: that's sixty five percent. And he's gotten three or more

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Speaker 3: total touchdowns rushing and passing just under fifty percent of

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Speaker 3: the time. So high floor, high ceiling. I'm projecting him

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Speaker 3: over two points higher than Mahomes this week. He's only

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Speaker 3: two hundred dollars more on DK, I guess would be

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Speaker 3: three hundred in the captain spot and about three and

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Speaker 3: a half points more than Travis Kelcey. And you know

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Speaker 3: he's only six hundred more than Kelsey on DK. So

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Speaker 3: I think Hurts is the best value here. And you

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Speaker 3: know you mentioned Kansas City. They play cover one that's

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Speaker 3: why they play Man at one of the higher rates,

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Speaker 3: because they play Cover one the most and Hurts averages

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Speaker 3: nine point two yards in attempt against Cover one, and

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Speaker 3: then their second most played coverage is Cover two, and

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Speaker 3: he averages nine point three yards in attempt against Cover two.

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Speaker 3: So they could, like you said, they could switch it up,

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Speaker 3: But about forty percent of their coverages their Cover one

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Speaker 3: and Cover two if you go by their season numbers,

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Speaker 3: and Hurts is killing against both of those, so maybe

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Speaker 3: they play more Cover three. I think that's his kind

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Speaker 3: of his worst coverage, but Spagnola always switches it up.

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Speaker 3: But I just thought i'd point that out, and I

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Speaker 3: wan Kelsey this week as well, just because if I'm

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Speaker 3: going with Hurts, I'm probably gonna have a little bit

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Speaker 3: less Mahomes than a captain spot. So if I want

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Speaker 3: a Chiefs player, I'm still going Kelsey. You know, his

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Speaker 3: postseason numbers throughout his career are just absurd. He's had

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Speaker 3: a touchdown in each of his past five postseason games.

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Speaker 3: He's had a touchdown in eleven of his past fourteen

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Speaker 3: postseason games.

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Speaker 1: That even predates Mahomes by a game. So I think

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Speaker 1: that was Alex Smith.

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Speaker 3: For the fourteenth one, but ten or thirteen with Mahomes,

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Speaker 3: he scored at least one touchdown. He has one hundred

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Speaker 3: yards and or a touchdown in sixty eight percent of

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Speaker 3: his games this year, and one hundred yards and or

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Speaker 3: a touchdown in fourteen of seventeen career postseason games eighty

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Speaker 3: two percent. He's getting either one hundred, a touch or both.

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Speaker 3: So I mean, this guy just shows up, and you

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Speaker 3: know it's the narrative. It's only one Kelsey can get

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Speaker 3: in the end zone, so you know you know which

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Speaker 3: one that is, and you know he's gonna want to,

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Speaker 3: you know, kind of show out on his bro.

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Speaker 1: So I'll file the narrative there.

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Speaker 3: I think Kelsey, even if he doesn't put up massive yardage.

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Speaker 3: You know, the Eagles defense is very good against the past.

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Speaker 3: But even if he doesn't put up massive yardage, I

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Speaker 3: think he finds his way to the end zone. And

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Speaker 3: like you mentioned, there could be negative gamesrip. This is

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Speaker 3: the second lowest spread in a game that Jalen Hurts

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Speaker 3: has started this year.

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Speaker 1: So they're still a favorite.

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Speaker 3: But you know, and now it's down well it's actually

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Speaker 3: down to one and a half at some spot, So

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Speaker 3: I believe that would be the lowest if it has

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Speaker 3: to be, Yeah, because they had a game there or

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Speaker 3: a dog, but that was Minshew against Dallas.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it's been favorite all year.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, they lost both Minshew games. They're only loss with

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Speaker 4: Hurts was against Commanders that at home. They were favorites,

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Speaker 4: were really favorites for that. So yeah, it's definitely the

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Speaker 4: lowest spread for the Eagles this season.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's uh, let's talk some mid range guys.

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Speaker 3: We'll get to the dark throws in a bit. But

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Speaker 3: who are you gonna start with here?

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Speaker 4: So let's just I'm gonna start off with Juju Smith

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Speaker 4: Schuster and really I'm just opening up about this Chief's

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Speaker 4: wide receiver mess because they're all hurt except for MBS.

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Speaker 4: So with Juju, we're gonna have to monitor his knee injury.

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Speaker 4: He had the you know, he had to leave the

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Speaker 4: game early last week. But it was the fourth straight

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Speaker 4: game he's sent a target per rout round rate below ten.

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Speaker 4: So have to imagine his roster ship is going to

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Speaker 4: be u you know, the lowest point it's been all season.

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Speaker 2: But he's he's the most likely.

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Speaker 4: Chief to avoid you know, Darius Slay and James Bredbery

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Speaker 4: and coverage, so he does have the better matchup, but

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Speaker 4: again it comes down to his health. So this is

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Speaker 4: a wait and see and just it's so empos It's

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Speaker 4: impossible right now to project the Chiefs wide receivers because

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Speaker 4: again they're all injured. So how are you handling this

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Speaker 4: situation right now? Are you just projecting him all being

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Speaker 4: one hundred percent or how are you going about this?

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Speaker 1: So I actually am not.

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Speaker 3: I am kind of looking at each individual injury and

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Speaker 3: kind of adjusting from there.

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Speaker 1: So Juju had a knee injury. That's not good, you know.

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Speaker 3: So typically wide receivers that play through and knee injury

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Speaker 3: are going to see like a fifteen to twenty percent

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Speaker 3: decrease in their fantasy production.

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Speaker 1: So until we get you know, until we see.

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Speaker 3: Him, you know, off the injury report or practicing in full,

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Speaker 3: I'm docking him a significant amount, about twenty percent of

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Speaker 3: his normal production and well about ten percent usage and

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Speaker 3: then another ten percent in terms of his actual production,

225
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Speaker 3: So it adds up to about twenty percent for Juju.

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Speaker 3: I only haven't projected for three catches right now, which

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Speaker 3: is more than he's been doing the last five games.

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Speaker 3: But no I mean, you know when you watch Juju,

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Speaker 3: I feel like he hasn't really been quite right since

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Speaker 3: he came back from that concussion.

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Speaker 1: Like, I know, he's had.

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Speaker 3: A couple of he's had a couple of games where

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Speaker 3: he hit double digit targets and he got he had

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Speaker 3: a seventy four yard.

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Speaker 1: Game and an eighty eight yard game.

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Speaker 3: But you know, besides that, he came back from that

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Speaker 3: concussion in week twelve, you know, three for three for

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Speaker 3: thirty eight, three for thirty five. You know, there's a

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Speaker 3: three for and then the last five three for twenty seven,

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Speaker 3: two for twenty one, two for thirty five, two for

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Speaker 3: twenty nine, one seven. So he had those two big

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Speaker 3: games and nine for seventy four and the ten for

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Speaker 3: eighty eight that was, you know, been his third and

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Speaker 3: fourth game.

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Speaker 1: Back, and then he really hasn't done anything.

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Speaker 2: So like I don't know, Oh, he's been awful.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, But like do you have any just inside it,

248
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Speaker 3: Like what do you think is going on with him?

249
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Speaker 3: Do you think it's you know, physical physically related. Do

250
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Speaker 3: you think it's just variant because even that knee injury

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Speaker 3: in the Bengal game, I didn't really see him get

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Speaker 3: hurt like he was all I was watching.

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Speaker 1: I rewatched it and he was on the field. I

254
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Speaker 1: believe it was for that MVS conversion or something like that,

255
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Speaker 1: I think.

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Speaker 3: And then and then no, the Hardman, the play that

257
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Speaker 3: Hartman got hurt, and then it was like you never

258
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Speaker 3: really saw Juju get hit or like twist anything. And

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Speaker 3: then next thing you know, they're like, he's just on

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Speaker 3: the sideline with an needgey. He's like, I don't know,

261
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Speaker 3: what are you seeing out of Juju? These last the

262
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Speaker 3: second half of the year. Yeah, no, I can't figure

263
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Speaker 3: out either. Again, his target perot rate numbers have been

264
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Speaker 3: just absolutely awful, So there's definitely something there. Maybe he's

265
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Speaker 3: not getting separation or whatnot. Could be a physical issue.

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Speaker 3: He's it's not like it's an age thing. He's still

267
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Speaker 3: what just like twenty five years old. He's always younger

268
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Speaker 3: than you think because he's been around for so long,

269
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Speaker 3: but he starts so early. But you know, looking at

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Speaker 3: his separation numbers, it hasn't been too bad.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, but.

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Speaker 1: That's that's that's the target point. So it could just

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Speaker 1: be that when he's you know, not getting yeah, exactly,

274
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Speaker 1: he's only getting.

275
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Speaker 2: Targeted when He's wide open, right, what it comes down.

276
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Speaker 1: To, And that's kind of what it looks like to me,

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Speaker 1: you know, like just kind of watching it.

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Speaker 3: I don't you know, I don't go back and watch

279
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Speaker 3: every single play on All twenty two, but I watch

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Speaker 3: every game and see every play, and I mean just

281
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Speaker 3: I don't remember him ever. I don't remember saying, oh

282
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Speaker 3: my god, like Juju's wide open and they missed him or.

283
00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:18,800
Speaker 1: Something like that. It's usually just he's kind of just there. So, yeah, the.

284
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Speaker 4: Slup sort of started when Tony started getting more playing

285
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Speaker 4: time and Tony gets target such a high rate.

286
00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:27,839
Speaker 2: That could have something to do with it.

287
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Speaker 4: There's just a lot of factors, probably just all the

288
00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:36,600
Speaker 4: factors colliding at once. But again, like if if Juju's

289
00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:42,760
Speaker 4: active and it's you know, Tony, Watson and Hardman are out,

290
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Speaker 4: you know, that's probably gonna help his case. So there's

291
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Speaker 4: just a lot of moving parts here. So it's something

292
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Speaker 4: that we'll just have to wait and see.

293
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I think Watson should be fine. He's

294
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Speaker 3: he had an illness, so that yeah, yeah, exactly two weeks.

295
00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:01,400
Speaker 3: I think Watson will be good to go. Tony was

296
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Speaker 3: concerning because it was like a non contact ankle injury.

297
00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:10,160
Speaker 1: And Hardman is concerning because he.

298
00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:14,960
Speaker 3: You know, yeah, he's been stragging off his pelvison injury

299
00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:19,480
Speaker 3: all year. So I checked out, you know, how many

300
00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:23,280
Speaker 3: snaps and routes they were playing before they went down.

301
00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:27,200
Speaker 3: Uh So Juju had was in on seventy six percent

302
00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:29,400
Speaker 3: of the routes before he went down, So that's kind.

303
00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:32,360
Speaker 1: Of pretty much around his season average.

304
00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:36,080
Speaker 3: Tony he barely you know, got through I think it

305
00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:38,440
Speaker 3: was what the first quarter, but he was actually in

306
00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:41,240
Speaker 3: on forty three percent, which would have been tied a

307
00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:44,920
Speaker 3: season high. Yeah, and then Hardman was thirty six percent

308
00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:48,960
Speaker 3: before he went down, which is a pretty big decrease

309
00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:49,320
Speaker 3: he was at.

310
00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:52,120
Speaker 1: He usually had fifty to fifty five percent for the year.

311
00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:55,280
Speaker 3: So you know, that's that's kind of what you would

312
00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:56,640
Speaker 3: expect if if they're healthy.

313
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Speaker 1: I think and Watson would.

314
00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:00,160
Speaker 3: Probably you know, bump down more, would bump dow On,

315
00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:05,560
Speaker 3: probably in the low twenties. But I think MVS, you know,

316
00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:09,920
Speaker 3: he's he played the most in the slot last game, so.

317
00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:13,400
Speaker 1: Maybe he can avoid Slay and brad Ray.

318
00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:15,840
Speaker 3: I also saw them use MVS out of the backfield

319
00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:17,600
Speaker 3: on a couple of plays, so they did start to

320
00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:20,160
Speaker 3: get a little bit creative with him, so you know,

321
00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:23,520
Speaker 3: I am intrigued, But it really depends on what's going

322
00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:27,600
Speaker 3: to happen with, you know, with Juju obviously, because Juju,

323
00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:29,480
Speaker 3: you know, he would still kind of project is that

324
00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:32,120
Speaker 3: number one or at least you know, code number one

325
00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:35,560
Speaker 3: with MVS, But and MVS will probably get more rostership

326
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Speaker 3: after the big game.

327
00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:40,000
Speaker 4: So yeah, even with all those injuries, sky Moore failed

328
00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:41,480
Speaker 4: to clear fifteen yards.

329
00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:45,000
Speaker 3: Oh man, Yeah, you know, I haven't projected for one

330
00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:48,960
Speaker 3: catch right now, so not not expecting too much for

331
00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:51,880
Speaker 3: from sky more in his spot. Like I think, I

332
00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:54,840
Speaker 3: think it would be you know, Juju. I think MVS would.

333
00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:56,360
Speaker 1: Lead the team in routes, followed by Juju.

334
00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:58,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, Tony if he If everyone was healthy, I think

335
00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:01,560
Speaker 3: they would like Tony to be so hardman fourth, and

336
00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:04,480
Speaker 3: then you know More and Watson, Like Watson usually plays

337
00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:06,480
Speaker 3: when they go one wide and when they have like

338
00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:08,240
Speaker 3: two or three tight ends on the field, that's usually

339
00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:11,120
Speaker 3: his kind of the formations with that he plays. And

340
00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:13,560
Speaker 3: then More would just be the backup to everybody essentially.

341
00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:15,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, no, I would I would love to see Tony

342
00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:18,400
Speaker 4: healthy for the game. But He's He's the one guy

343
00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:21,000
Speaker 4: that just anytime he gets hurt, it always turns into

344
00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:24,000
Speaker 4: a multi week thing. So I hope he's okay, but

345
00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:26,160
Speaker 4: he's he's the one that I'm worried the most about

346
00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:29,960
Speaker 4: missing just based on his his past, you know, and

347
00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:33,160
Speaker 4: you said it was like a non contact ankle injury. Again,

348
00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:35,960
Speaker 4: we we have like very limited info on these, so

349
00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:38,520
Speaker 4: that this will be a ever changing projection for both

350
00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:39,160
Speaker 4: of us.

351
00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:40,160
Speaker 2: Yeah.

352
00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:41,960
Speaker 1: Who else do you like in the rearrange?

353
00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:45,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, so, I you know, for the Eagle side, I

354
00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:49,120
Speaker 4: do like Dallas Goddard. He's been fairly quiet after returning

355
00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:52,040
Speaker 4: from his five game absence late in the season, but

356
00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:55,440
Speaker 4: he's now seen you know, twenty percent or greater target

357
00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:58,040
Speaker 4: per out run rate in both playoff games, and he

358
00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:01,120
Speaker 4: gets high percentage throws underneath. So he has five catches

359
00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:04,520
Speaker 4: in both games. But he has massive upside if the

360
00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:08,199
Speaker 4: Eagles finally have a pass heavy game script where you

361
00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:11,120
Speaker 4: know they might be trailing. So I think he has

362
00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:13,480
Speaker 4: seven to eight catch sort of upside here.

363
00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:16,040
Speaker 2: So I do like him in this spot.

364
00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:18,560
Speaker 4: His roster ship might be a little bit lower than

365
00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:21,720
Speaker 4: it should be, And then I like both pass catching

366
00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:24,640
Speaker 4: backs for both teams. Again, this is if you're building

367
00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:27,199
Speaker 4: a trailing game script for either team. I wouldn't use

368
00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:30,440
Speaker 4: them both in the same lineup necessarily, So Jared McKennon,

369
00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:32,240
Speaker 4: I think it's a good time to buy low on him.

370
00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:34,720
Speaker 4: He's posted back to back duds in the playoffs so far.

371
00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:38,520
Speaker 2: Pacheco strangely enough, had a higher routes run rate.

372
00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:42,199
Speaker 1: Yes when I bet that when I bet the other.

373
00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:47,240
Speaker 4: So I'm trying to figure that out. It could revert

374
00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:48,840
Speaker 4: back this week. I don't know if it had to

375
00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:50,919
Speaker 4: do with you know, the Chiefs were in control for

376
00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:53,400
Speaker 4: most of the games, so the Chiefs had more two

377
00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:54,320
Speaker 4: to three tight ends.

378
00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:56,240
Speaker 1: We were not in control for most of the game.

379
00:17:56,320 --> 00:18:00,480
Speaker 3: First of all, well that game game, well, yeah, control

380
00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:01,720
Speaker 3: at any point they were.

381
00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:02,840
Speaker 2: I'm just saying that.

382
00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:05,280
Speaker 4: You know, Pacheck go's in there on early downs, right,

383
00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:08,240
Speaker 4: So they had more two to three tight end sets

384
00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:11,040
Speaker 4: because of all the wide receiver injuries and they're way

385
00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:13,680
Speaker 4: more pass heavy than usual and the three tight end.

386
00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:16,520
Speaker 2: Sets, so I think that could have to do with it.

387
00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:19,120
Speaker 2: But Pachecko, he looked great.

388
00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:21,480
Speaker 4: I don't know why they haven't used him more as

389
00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:24,240
Speaker 4: a pass catcher, but either way, the facts are undeniable.

390
00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:28,720
Speaker 4: Checko outran McKinnon, but again that could change here. So

391
00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:31,359
Speaker 4: I think in a potential trailing game script, I think

392
00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:34,880
Speaker 4: McKinnon will get more involved and his rostership will be lower.

393
00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:37,480
Speaker 4: I think he was one of the top, like captain.

394
00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:41,840
Speaker 4: Like his rostership in the AFC Championship game was probably

395
00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:43,760
Speaker 4: too high. So I think a lot of people are

396
00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:46,320
Speaker 4: gonna be turned off by that dud. So again, I

397
00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:48,920
Speaker 4: think he's sneaky. If you want to build a Chiefs

398
00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:52,320
Speaker 4: trailing game script type of lineup, McKinnon is the way

399
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:54,560
Speaker 4: to go there. And then Kinney gain well, you know

400
00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:57,520
Speaker 4: he's not under the radar anymore. He has the second

401
00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:01,040
Speaker 4: highest rushing yards per game and the puffs even more

402
00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:04,440
Speaker 4: than Christian McCaffrey. And you know he's benefited a ton

403
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:07,080
Speaker 4: from just getting a garbage time at the end of

404
00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:09,960
Speaker 4: these blowouts, and he has looked like the best back

405
00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:13,560
Speaker 4: in the backfield. But in a potential pass heavy trailing

406
00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:16,000
Speaker 4: game script, he could see a lot more work in

407
00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:18,639
Speaker 4: the passing game. So this is a spot where we

408
00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:21,600
Speaker 4: could see him top fifty percent routes run rate in

409
00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:24,320
Speaker 4: the passing game. So I do like his upside in

410
00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:27,480
Speaker 4: almost any game script right now, and I think his

411
00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:29,960
Speaker 4: roster ship will be a little bit higher.

412
00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:30,399
Speaker 2: Than I like it to be.

413
00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:34,440
Speaker 4: But again, if I'm building an Eagles trailing game script lineup,

414
00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:35,800
Speaker 4: he's definitely gonna be in there.

415
00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:39,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Chiefs, they tightened up against running backs last

416
00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:40,080
Speaker 3: week against Cincinnati.

417
00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:42,560
Speaker 1: I think it was nineteen yards and seven targets.

418
00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:45,280
Speaker 3: But for the year, they've been one of the bottom

419
00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:48,119
Speaker 3: five teams in terms of BVOA against running backs in

420
00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:51,720
Speaker 3: terms of schedule adjusted targets per game allowed to running

421
00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:55,040
Speaker 3: backs and schedule adj justed yards per game allowed to.

422
00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:56,120
Speaker 1: Running backs in the past game.

423
00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:59,000
Speaker 3: So the season one numbers, yeah, tell you that game

424
00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 3: well should have some success. And he has been averagy.

425
00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:03,919
Speaker 3: I believe it's about two receptions per game over his

426
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:07,960
Speaker 3: last half dozen, so I've actually bumped up his his

427
00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:10,840
Speaker 3: my reception projection for him from his usual like one

428
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:14,800
Speaker 3: point five to but one point nine. So I'm expecting

429
00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:17,919
Speaker 3: him to catch a couple of passes here. But you know,

430
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:20,960
Speaker 3: it'll be interesting to see, you know, how how much

431
00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:22,600
Speaker 3: they use him coming off that, because I agree, I

432
00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:26,119
Speaker 3: think he did a great out there, But at the

433
00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:28,960
Speaker 3: same time, we've seen the Eagles just in these super

434
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:32,000
Speaker 3: positive game script where they could just essentially put Sanders

435
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:33,320
Speaker 3: on I I think they put him on ice in

436
00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:34,680
Speaker 3: the third quarter.

437
00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:37,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, like late in the third he was done.

438
00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:38,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, done.

439
00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:40,280
Speaker 4: And I think to be fair, some of those targets

440
00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:44,080
Speaker 4: to the Bengals backs, mainly samaj p Ryan last week,

441
00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:48,280
Speaker 4: was his Burrow freaking out because he was under pressure immediately.

442
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:50,800
Speaker 4: One of them was an intentional grounding. Another he threwed

443
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:52,920
Speaker 4: to pry p Ryan didn't even know the balls coming

444
00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:54,960
Speaker 4: his way. So I don't think they were very good

445
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:59,440
Speaker 4: targets because you know Burrow is under constant pressure. But yeah,

446
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,720
Speaker 4: so I think with the Eagles a better offensive line,

447
00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 4: they will take advantage of the Chiefs defense that has

448
00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,200
Speaker 4: struggled against pass catching backs this here.

449
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:11,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like you already mentioned him, but Aj Brown,

450
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:14,800
Speaker 3: I think he's the guy I'm going with as that

451
00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,800
Speaker 3: top Eagles pass catcher here. As you mentioned Kansas City

452
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:21,440
Speaker 3: thirty first and Dvoa against number one receivers, and they've

453
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:24,159
Speaker 3: allowed the second most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers in

454
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:28,320
Speaker 3: a regular season with twenty. And also they were showing

455
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 3: some cracks downfield targets last week, on targets twenty yards

456
00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:35,119
Speaker 3: are more down the field, Kansas City allowed three of

457
00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:38,640
Speaker 3: six for eighty three yards in a touchdown, so that's

458
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 3: certainly something I think Brown can exploit. He finished six

459
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:45,200
Speaker 3: during the regular season in deep targets with twenty nine.

460
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:50,440
Speaker 3: And then I also like both of the starting two

461
00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:53,760
Speaker 3: gown early down backs in this game. I like Miles

462
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:58,240
Speaker 3: Sanders because the Kansas City defense they have pretty drastic

463
00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 3: splits when they play good team versus when they play

464
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:05,240
Speaker 3: bad team. So when they played playoff teams, they've allowed

465
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:09,480
Speaker 3: seven running back touchdowns in nine games, and then when

466
00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:11,919
Speaker 3: they played non playoff teams that goes down to fifty percent,

467
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:16,639
Speaker 3: so about seventy five percent of the time, over seventy

468
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:18,399
Speaker 3: percent of the time they're allowing a touchdown to running

469
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,359
Speaker 3: back against the playoff team. In both of the last

470
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 3: two games, they allowed one to a running back, one

471
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,200
Speaker 3: of them was p Ryan. But I think Sanders is

472
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 3: still the most likely to get those touches by the

473
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:31,120
Speaker 3: goal line if it's a as long as the game

474
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:35,639
Speaker 3: is close, and then you know, looking at my projected

475
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 3: touchdown odds for this game, Miles Sanders, I remember last year,

476
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:41,280
Speaker 3: I know we were banging like his unders and I

477
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:43,200
Speaker 3: think he finished with zero rushing touchdowns.

478
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:47,159
Speaker 1: This year's kind of a different story. He's been in

479
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 1: the whole team.

480
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:51,320
Speaker 3: I mean, David Hurts included just racking up the scores

481
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:54,480
Speaker 3: on the ground. But so I'm looking at my projections

482
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 3: and I have Sanders as the second highest skill player

483
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 3: in terms of projected touchdown odds at forty percent, So

484
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:08,200
Speaker 3: that trails only Travis Kelce for me by about five

485
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 3: what about about five percent?

486
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:11,359
Speaker 1: It trails Travis Kelce.

487
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 3: So I'm pretty high on Sanders here getting into the

488
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,680
Speaker 3: end zone. And when I kind of you know, calculate

489
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 3: the you know, take the touchdown odds and divide it

490
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:24,879
Speaker 3: by the salary to kind of get my little touchdown values, Uh,

491
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,679
Speaker 3: Sanders is pretty much right there at the top of

492
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 3: the list. Gain well also scores pretty high in that,

493
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 3: So I like that call as well. I just I'm

494
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 3: just worried that like it might slip back to Sanders

495
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 3: if he gets like more playing time this week, because

496
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 3: you know, they took him out in the third last

497
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 3: game and the fourth the game before, so that's where

498
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,440
Speaker 3: game will really kind of racked up a ton of usage.

499
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 3: But you know, in games that like during the regular season,

500
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 3: it was more like Sanders would get seventy percent of

501
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 3: the backfield carriers. Gain Will would get fifteen to twenty percent,

502
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:56,679
Speaker 3: And that really has kind of flip flopped to her

503
00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,919
Speaker 3: game was getting almost you know, thirty forty sometimes had.

504
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 1: So I do like kind of going back to Sanders here.

505
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 3: I do think he has a really good shot of

506
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:07,399
Speaker 3: getting in the end zone, and I think he has

507
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:12,239
Speaker 3: a good shot of seeing potentially his most carries of

508
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,639
Speaker 3: the postseason if the game is close. I know he

509
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,720
Speaker 3: had seventeen against the Giants, but he's been he's been

510
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 3: a guy when the game is close, he will get

511
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:22,200
Speaker 3: you know, seventy five eighty percent of the backfield carries,

512
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:23,560
Speaker 3: and they have been keeping him on ice.

513
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 1: There's no reason to keep him on ice now exactly.

514
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:28,440
Speaker 1: So I think I do think people need to keep

515
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:28,960
Speaker 1: that in mind.

516
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 3: You know, I know we have to kind of pay

517
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:33,200
Speaker 3: attention to the last couple of games a lot when

518
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:35,399
Speaker 3: we project running backs. But I do think, you know,

519
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 3: he's still around about just under seventy percent of the

520
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 3: backfield design carries for the season. I think you could

521
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:47,359
Speaker 3: see him go back to that this week against the Chiefs.

522
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 1: And then Pacheco.

523
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 3: I do like Pacheco too, I know like he's not

524
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:53,680
Speaker 3: obviously it's going to be as under the radar as McKinnon.

525
00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:58,440
Speaker 3: But Philadelphia just from a game point in perspective, Philadelphia

526
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 3: is still a run funnel defense first and past Dvoa

527
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:06,679
Speaker 3: nineteenth against the run, and they haven't allowed many running

528
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:10,919
Speaker 3: back runs in the playoffs because they've been up so much,

529
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:14,879
Speaker 3: but they've lot twenty nine and those twenty nine carries

530
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 3: have gone for one hundred and seventy eight yards and

531
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:21,160
Speaker 3: a touchdown and two touchdowns, So that's over six yards

532
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 3: per carry to running backs in the postseason. So that

533
00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 3: defense started trending up down the stretch once they got

534
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 3: the Dominican su Linval Joseph, But the efficiency really hasn't

535
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:34,120
Speaker 3: been there for that defense in the postseason, even going

536
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:36,919
Speaker 3: back to the last couple games of the regular season

537
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,439
Speaker 3: as well. A running back has scored in a sixty

538
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 3: one percent of games against Philly four of the last six,

539
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 3: and Pacheckio's got seventy three percent of the backfield carries

540
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 3: since Week eleven. And that's important because I don't think

541
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:51,199
Speaker 3: you're gonna see Mahomes running around just like I know

542
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 3: he scrambled sometimes and usually scrambles more in the postseason,

543
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 3: but still think he's probably gonna be a little bit.

544
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 1: More cautious in terms of scrambling around.

545
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:02,199
Speaker 3: So it could be all running backs or maybe like

546
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 3: a gadget player or two when they get down in quotes,

547
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:09,400
Speaker 3: So I have Pacheco with about a thirty three thirty

548
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:12,360
Speaker 3: four chance for a touchdown, which.

549
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 1: Is fourth amongst go players for me.

550
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:18,199
Speaker 3: So another guy that you know, I feel like you

551
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 3: got to kind of nail the touchdowns for these for

552
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:23,680
Speaker 3: these kinds of sweets. So another guy, I think he's

553
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:25,879
Speaker 3: only got five I believe on the year, but I

554
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:28,760
Speaker 3: think he's in a good spot to get one here

555
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 3: against Philly.

556
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:30,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like it.

557
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:33,840
Speaker 4: And what do you think in terms of running backs stacks,

558
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:35,920
Speaker 4: Like if you're gonna take two running backs, one from

559
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 4: each team, I think the logical, you know, point of

560
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:42,960
Speaker 4: view is Miles Sanders stacking with McKinnon with a you know,

561
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 4: Eagles leading game script or Kenny Gainwell and Pachecko for

562
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:51,159
Speaker 4: a Chiefs leading game script or it's just gonna be

563
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 4: a close game and you just go Sanders Pacheco. What

564
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 4: are your thoughts on, like how you're going to handle

565
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 4: those correlations.

566
00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think with when you're if you're putting Sanders

567
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:02,560
Speaker 3: in a litter, I don't think it matters as much

568
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 3: because we've seen what happens with Sanders, right, If the

569
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 3: Eagles are doing well, Sanders is getting into the end

570
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:10,719
Speaker 3: zone early in the game and then they take him out.

571
00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:12,120
Speaker 1: So he's gonna get his either way.

572
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:14,639
Speaker 3: If it's a close game, he's gonna get you know,

573
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 3: fifteen sixteen, seventeen eighteen carries because it's closed. So I

574
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 3: think Sanders is a little more kind of game script

575
00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 3: a gnostic in terms of who you could stack them with,

576
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 3: Like I think it makes sense to stack them with McKinnon,

577
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 3: as you said, or Pacheco, Whereas if you're going with Gain, well,

578
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 3: I think that's where I would go a little more

579
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:39,200
Speaker 3: strongly toward Pacheco because I think I mean, excuse me too, yeah,

580
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 3: toward Pacheco, because I think that in that situation, you know,

581
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,920
Speaker 3: you're kind of playing for okay, Eagles, negative gamescript.

582
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,080
Speaker 1: Although I mean there.

583
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:51,479
Speaker 3: Is the chance the Eagles just blow out the Chiefs, right,

584
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 3: I mean that's part of the question, because then then

585
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,239
Speaker 3: you could still see kind of the same thing. So

586
00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 3: but I do think what you said at first is

587
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 3: the optimal way to go Sanders McKinnon, Uh, gain well, Pacheco.

588
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:08,199
Speaker 3: But I'm not overconcerned with any pairing just because the

589
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 3: Eagles run so damn much.

590
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 1: You know, it's just kind of.

591
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 2: But they've never been really in a trailing game. Script

592
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:16,960
Speaker 2: me not I got some home.

593
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 3: That doesn't mean I'm like, I just just thought of

594
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 3: the cool jersey towhere. But no, I take your point

595
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 3: is taken. I think that's how that would be. My

596
00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 3: starting point is the pair of the opposites with each other.

597
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:33,640
Speaker 3: But uh, yeah, I think the Eagles are just it's

598
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 3: just really tough to say, Okay, like fade this guy

599
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:38,480
Speaker 3: just because you have the other guy, because everyone's just

600
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 3: been getting so many carries because they're just running the.

601
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 1: Ball, run the hell out of the ball. But all right,

602
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:47,120
Speaker 1: but we got down to darth throws. Now who do

603
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:51,960
Speaker 1: you like to like? Okay, I'm more of a you know,

604
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 1: a corn hoole man myself.

605
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 2: So well last time right for the Eagles.

606
00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 4: So when it comes to the Eagles, there's really two

607
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 4: dart throws that you can consider. Boston Scott is a

608
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 4: dart throw if you think they're going to blow a

609
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 4: team out. Ques Watkins is a dart throw if you

610
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 4: think they will actually be in a close game or

611
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 4: god forbid, a trailing game.

612
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 2: Script.

613
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 4: So, now through the first two rounds of the playoffs,

614
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 4: you know they've been in two blowouts. So Ques has

615
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 4: zero catches. You've cashed both of your unders on them,

616
00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 4: nicely done. That is his his floor is zero catches.

617
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 4: That's we're well aware of that. However, this is a

618
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 4: game where you know they might be in a pass

619
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 4: heavy game script. So I think the chances of Quez

620
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 4: not only catching a pass, but catching a deep ball

621
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 4: maybe a touchdown go up here.

622
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:42,520
Speaker 2: And it was nice to see. You know, we were

623
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 2: trying to wonder.

624
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 4: We were kind of wondering why Zach Pascal led and

625
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 4: routes run in the divisional round, but it bounced back

626
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 4: up to the more normal levels. So Quez, you know,

627
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 4: at a fifty two routes run rate last week, they

628
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 4: didn't really have to throw them the ball much. So

629
00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 4: you know, yeah, the zero catches, but this is a

630
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 4: game where they could take a shot or to Ques downfield,

631
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:06,480
Speaker 4: so he's back in play as.

632
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 2: A dark row.

633
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 1: I got some great numbers on Quez I knew before.

634
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 3: Oh there, So first of all, Kansas City defense tenth

635
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 3: in EPA and six in success rate against passes from

636
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 3: one to two personnel, but sixteenth in EPA and twentieth

637
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 3: in success rate against passes in one to one personnel.

638
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 3: So I think there is incentive for the Eagles to

639
00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 3: go back to throwing out of more one to one personnel,

640
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 3: and that would be obviously good for Watkins. Just under

641
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 3: a quarter of his targets have been twenty or more

642
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:44,080
Speaker 3: yards downfield this year, and you mentioned the grame scripts.

643
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 3: When they're leading or tied, he's averaging just eight point

644
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 3: three yards of catch five yards of target. When they're trailing,

645
00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 3: he averages over seventeen yards of catch and just under

646
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 3: twelve target. So it's more than doubles in terms of

647
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 3: the efficiency down the field when the Eagles are trailing.

648
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 3: And his touchdown rate per target five percent when leading,

649
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 3: seven point seven percent, so of course to eight percent

650
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 3: when trailing.

651
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 1: So everything goes up.

652
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:21,840
Speaker 3: But forty of his targets have been leading or tied

653
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:24,400
Speaker 3: and only thirteen have been trailing, so he just hasn't

654
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 3: had much of a chance.

655
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 1: But like you said, if.

656
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 3: The Chiefs can get an early lead, and you know,

657
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 3: even if the Chiefs are just leading by you know,

658
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:34,440
Speaker 3: three or seven, for a decent amount of this game,

659
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:37,960
Speaker 3: I mean, we could see Watkins go like three four

660
00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:40,880
Speaker 3: ninety six in a touchdown or something like. That's in

661
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,240
Speaker 3: his range of outcomes. So I do think that this

662
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 3: is a quez week. This is a week I will

663
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 3: not be betting under. It's down to like ten and

664
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 3: a half. So there sharp they I give them that

665
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:53,800
Speaker 3: they are sharp now with.

666
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 2: It, but I would not touch that one way or

667
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:56,600
Speaker 2: the other.

668
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 4: If anything, I'll look out for like the all markets

669
00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 4: of like fifty or more receiving yards at like eight

670
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 4: to one. Right, he's the guy that you go for

671
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 4: his ceiling. So yeah, I'm not going to touch even

672
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 4: his over ten and a half. Still a good chance

673
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 4: he has zero. But going back to what you were saying,

674
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 4: like weeks thirteen through eighteen, he had an a dot

675
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 4: of seven point two, and a lot of that coincide

676
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 4: with Dallas Goddart being out. We've talked about that he

677
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 4: was kind of taking those underneath throats last week. His

678
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 4: one target was thirty three yards downfield, so I think

679
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 4: he's back to being that deep shot kind of guy.

680
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 4: So yeah, I think just they haven't really been in

681
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 4: a trailing spot, so it makes sense that the few

682
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 4: times they have been, he's been seeing more targets downfield.

683
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 4: So this would be a chance the type of game

684
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 4: where Quas Watkins does actually hit on a showdown slate.

685
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 4: And then for the Chiefs, I don't want to steal

686
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 4: your thunder too much. I think we're on the same guy,

687
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 4: but go with Jody Forkston here. I think he makes

688
00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:00,480
Speaker 4: a ton of sense because with the wider ie receiver

689
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:03,080
Speaker 4: situation being a mess, you know, we might have one

690
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 4: or two of these guys actually get ruled out, so

691
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 4: the Chiefs might have to run more two to three

692
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 4: tight end sets again this week. And you know, Fortson

693
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 4: didn't see a target last week, but he did run

694
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:16,600
Speaker 4: ro out on eighteen percent of Mahomes dropback, so he can't.

695
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 4: He could be overlooked here, but we're not asking him

696
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:23,400
Speaker 4: to catch four passes for forty yards obviously, that's not

697
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:25,840
Speaker 4: in his range of outcomes. What we're looking for is

698
00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 4: a cheap touchdown near the goal line. He does have

699
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 4: that upside. He has four touchdowns on his fourteen career

700
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 4: receptions in two seasons. So you know, Andrey likes to

701
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 4: get pretty cute when we get in the red zone.

702
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 4: So he has two weeks to scheme up a forts

703
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:46,640
Speaker 4: in play in the end zone. So we definitely have

704
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 4: to take some swings on fortsn in this show then slate.

705
00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, twenty nine percent of his career catches have gone

706
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 3: for touchdowns, and this year he's had thirteen targets all year,

707
00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:01,959
Speaker 3: thirty eight percent of them have inside the tent, not

708
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 3: even in the red zone, inside the ten yard line.

709
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:11,480
Speaker 3: He's averaging eight routes per game nineteen percent route participation,

710
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:15,239
Speaker 3: which is pretty solid on a pass heavy team as

711
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 3: a third tight end. That's eight routes a game. That

712
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:20,600
Speaker 3: gives you know, that gives you you could get multiple

713
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 3: targets with eight routes per game, you know, if you

714
00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:27,439
Speaker 3: get you know the standard deviation, you like, we get

715
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:31,239
Speaker 3: one target, but could easily get two if things go right.

716
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 3: And this ego team, because you have Sleigh on the outside,

717
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:37,000
Speaker 3: because you have Bradbury on the outside, because you have

718
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,839
Speaker 3: all of the wide receivers, you know, in urgent care

719
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 3: whoever they are, like it's you know this this could

720
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:46,880
Speaker 3: be a game where the Chiefs.

721
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:48,920
Speaker 1: Rely on not Jess Travis kelcey.

722
00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:52,239
Speaker 3: But they're heavy form mats, which they've been using more of,

723
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:55,280
Speaker 3: oh like down the stretch in the second half, which

724
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:58,960
Speaker 3: is I think hard to do with maybe Juju struggling

725
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:00,239
Speaker 3: a little bit or maybe I don't know, such a

726
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:01,000
Speaker 3: chicken or the egg.

727
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:03,919
Speaker 1: But uh, you know, going back to Juju.

728
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 3: Because I just I did have a thought on Juju,

729
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 3: and I think what's happening with him is you look

730
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 3: at his slot rate this year and the Kansas City

731
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 3: chiefs Andy Reid, when they got rid of tyreek Ko,

732
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 3: they said, we're gonna get a.

733
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 1: Receivers that can do everything.

734
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 3: So all their wide receivers play out the slot about

735
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:22,320
Speaker 3: forty percent of the time, like we saw Valdez scantly

736
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 3: go over forty percent last week in the slot. So

737
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:28,360
Speaker 3: this year Juju forty two percent slot rate. That is

738
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:31,520
Speaker 3: a career low. Last yeah, last year eighty percent year

739
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:34,880
Speaker 3: before eighty five percent. Uh you know his his rookie

740
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 3: year fifty nine percent. You know that that's pretty much

741
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 3: as low as he's gonna go. It's like sixty fifty

742
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:43,760
Speaker 3: nine sixty slot rate before this year, and I just think,

743
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:46,520
Speaker 3: you know, he was always a guy that he was

744
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:48,680
Speaker 3: better as a big slot and I think now being

745
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:51,759
Speaker 3: asked to play outside more, he's just not getting open.

746
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:54,200
Speaker 3: He's just not getting open as much. And you know,

747
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes's best quarterback on the planet. He's gonna throw

748
00:35:57,200 --> 00:35:59,359
Speaker 3: to the right guy and the right guy more often

749
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 3: than not this year or just hasn't been Jujiu, I

750
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 3: think because.

751
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:03,400
Speaker 1: He's playing on the outside.

752
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 3: So I think that's actually, you know, just going back

753
00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 3: to that point that we discussed earlier, you know, I

754
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 3: think that's kind of what's going on with him.

755
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:10,759
Speaker 2: Now.

756
00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 1: He's had a couple of big games.

757
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 3: You know what, He's still been around forty percent in

758
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:15,840
Speaker 3: the slot, but it's been far less consistent than at

759
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 3: any point in his career.

760
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 2: Yeah. No, I think that that does make a ton

761
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:19,799
Speaker 2: of sense.

762
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:25,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, So Fortson like him, And I'll even mention Noah

763
00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:27,560
Speaker 3: Gray because I think people will be off him because

764
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 3: last five games exactly one target, exactly one catch, right,

765
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 3: But you look at the season long numbers and I

766
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:37,479
Speaker 3: think there's a lot to like here. First of all,

767
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 3: at least ten routes in every single game. His route

768
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:45,400
Speaker 3: participation rate has been up above forty pretty much the

769
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 3: entire second half of the season. And you know, even

770
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:52,919
Speaker 3: with forts in back last week, forty six per route

771
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:55,880
Speaker 3: participation rate for Gray.

772
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:58,480
Speaker 1: And then you look at the Eagles defense.

773
00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:02,279
Speaker 3: They love to play Cover four, They play a lot

774
00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 3: of Cover three as well, that that that takes care

775
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:07,439
Speaker 3: of about forty five percent of their total coverages. And

776
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:10,600
Speaker 3: Gray one point six yards per route against Cover four.

777
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 3: That's behind only Tony in a very small sample. And

778
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 3: then Kelsey and Juju, so Juju's actually been pretty good

779
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:20,520
Speaker 3: against some zones, which makes sense. And then against Cover

780
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:23,359
Speaker 3: three one point nine yards per route, again behind only

781
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:25,880
Speaker 3: Tony in a very small sample. And then Kelsey, McKinnon

782
00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:28,360
Speaker 3: and Juju, And remember Jujus probably not one hundred percent,

783
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:31,360
Speaker 3: So you're talking about Noah Gray might be one of

784
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:35,360
Speaker 3: the better options on the field against these coverages that

785
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 3: the Eagles tend to play. So I do think we

786
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 3: could see another multiple target game for Noah Gray for

787
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:47,319
Speaker 3: once for the first time in six games in this

788
00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 3: spot and since to buy even with these five games

789
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:54,239
Speaker 3: where he's been kind of stuck on one catch, he's

790
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 3: still averaging one point eight catches in twenty one yards

791
00:37:57,200 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 3: per game since to buy, So that's a pretty good

792
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:04,120
Speaker 3: average for a guy that you barely costs a thousand

793
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:07,920
Speaker 3: dollars one point two k on DraftKings. So one of

794
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 3: the cheapest players and on a route for route BASI

795
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 3: is probably the best best value.

796
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 1: I think sports In is the best touchdown value.

797
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:19,239
Speaker 3: Like I have his touchdown odds around five percent, uh

798
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:21,319
Speaker 3: and he costs two hundred, so that's like a ten

799
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 3: x if you want to do it that way. So

800
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 3: I think he's the best just pound for pound touchdown odds.

801
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 3: But Noah Gray, in terms of straight up you know,

802
00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:32,439
Speaker 3: being on the field, you're getting you know, double digit

803
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:35,640
Speaker 3: routes for one point two k. It's again in a

804
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:36,320
Speaker 3: good matchup.

805
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:38,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that. I think it's hard to beat that.

806
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:39,439
Speaker 2: Yeah.

807
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:42,200
Speaker 4: Over these past five games he has a six percent

808
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:45,799
Speaker 4: target right on his routes per run, and then his

809
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:49,479
Speaker 4: season is eleven point six, so he has definitely room

810
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 4: to go up.

811
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 2: And despite that, you know, drop and target, you know.

812
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:58,840
Speaker 4: Production, he's caught of passing fifteen straight games, which you

813
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:03,400
Speaker 4: can't really say about guys around one K on Showdown slates,

814
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 4: So he does have a pretty high floor all things

815
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:09,799
Speaker 4: considered with these lower end guys. But yeah, like when

816
00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 4: it comes to the Chiefs, tight Ends, Great and Fortson

817
00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 4: are definitely in play on the slide.

818
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:17,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, take your darts over here pretty seriously. Huh.

819
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:18,839
Speaker 3: The couple of the guys that I want to talk about,

820
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 3: I don't think either of us are on them, but

821
00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:22,879
Speaker 3: I just want to kind of get your thoughts on them.

822
00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:26,760
Speaker 3: The first is, let's go back to Boston Scott, because yeah,

823
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:29,480
Speaker 3: when I project him out, he's coming up as a

824
00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:31,920
Speaker 3: pretty bad value now that he's priced up a little bit,

825
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:35,239
Speaker 3: So like, what are you thinking in terms of, you know,

826
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:38,440
Speaker 3: his usage. Let's say the game stays close, what are

827
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 3: you thinking in terms of his usage? Just to go

828
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 3: back to kind of his season long numbers, do you

829
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:44,840
Speaker 3: just remove all the games against the Giants when you're projected?

830
00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:47,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, how are you kind of handing Scott?

831
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 3: Because I think that's the guy that he's going to

832
00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:53,279
Speaker 3: be tempting to a lot of people. Because you have

833
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:56,960
Speaker 3: these three running backs and you know, one is like

834
00:39:57,120 --> 00:39:59,399
Speaker 3: eight k, the other is five K, and the other

835
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:02,279
Speaker 3: is three K, and all three of them have been

836
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 3: scoring and finding the end zone, and so I think

837
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 3: people are gonna say, okay, Boston, why not just take

838
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 3: the cheapest guy in Boston Scott? So, uh, you know,

839
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:11,719
Speaker 3: what are your what are your thoughts on him? How

840
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:14,560
Speaker 3: much exposure do you kind of see yourself having for him.

841
00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:17,719
Speaker 4: I'll try to be underweight on him because, like you said,

842
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:19,840
Speaker 4: I think his roster ship will be too high. I

843
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:22,400
Speaker 4: think people will just look at the touchdowns and gravitate

844
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 4: towards him. But this is gonna be a close game,

845
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:26,680
Speaker 4: and I think this leads to what you're while you're

846
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 4: high on Miles Sanders. You know, Miles Sanders has been

847
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:33,440
Speaker 4: capped almost all season long. He rarely plays in the

848
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:35,759
Speaker 4: fourth quarter because they're blowing teams out. I think a

849
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:38,359
Speaker 4: lot of those Scott touches that we normally see every

850
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:40,919
Speaker 4: week will go to Sanders and Gainwell. So I think

851
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:44,959
Speaker 4: I'm projecting him really low right now, and I want

852
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:46,960
Speaker 4: to be underweight on him, and if he scores a

853
00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 4: cheap touchdown, so be it. But I think the way

854
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 4: to go here is sort of fade him and just

855
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 4: invest in Sanders and Gamewell seeing most of the touches

856
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 4: in this game.

857
00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:58,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think if you want to invest in Boston

858
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:02,640
Speaker 3: Scott dfs, you could do it, but you have to

859
00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 3: have a certain game scrip. It has to be essentially

860
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 3: Eagles blowout game script. And because if you look at

861
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:12,879
Speaker 3: Boston Scott, it's actually interesting because for the Super Bowl,

862
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:16,160
Speaker 3: I look up weird stats like this, but Boston Scott

863
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:21,239
Speaker 3: has scored the last touchdown for the Eagles in three.

864
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:22,640
Speaker 1: Of his eighteen active games.

865
00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:25,680
Speaker 3: So the only person, the only two players that have

866
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:29,000
Speaker 3: more hurts with five, and Devonte Smith was four.

867
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 1: So Boston squat Scott.

868
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 3: If they're up big, or maybe even if they're down big,

869
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 3: he could be in there late. So that's how you

870
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 3: kind of have to play it with kind of more

871
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 3: more extreme games.

872
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, extreme, I mean running backs can get hurt. Sanders

873
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:47,200
Speaker 4: can get hurt early on, so you could play him.

874
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:50,120
Speaker 4: But I think one way to be kind of unique

875
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:53,399
Speaker 4: would be, I don't know, stack Sanders and Scott because

876
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:55,560
Speaker 4: if there's a blot, maybe Sanders scores a couple of

877
00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:58,880
Speaker 4: touchdowns early and Scott gets one late. That's kind of

878
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:01,919
Speaker 4: how every Eagles game has gone so far this here,

879
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:03,800
Speaker 4: So I don't know if that's going to be too unique,

880
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:05,759
Speaker 4: but yeah, if you're using Scott, you got to get

881
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:08,799
Speaker 4: real creative and maybe throwing a forts in. I don't know,

882
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:10,880
Speaker 4: but I just think Scott's roster ship is going to

883
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:13,120
Speaker 4: be probably too high in the game.

884
00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:15,719
Speaker 3: And the price isn't Now that the price is up, Yeah,

885
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:17,480
Speaker 3: the value is not really great. Yeah, because I have

886
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:20,600
Speaker 3: him about three three carries in this game, which it

887
00:42:20,680 --> 00:42:23,720
Speaker 3: sounds it sounds low, but that's yea like the median

888
00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:25,759
Speaker 3: is probably still around three. You don't expect the team

889
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 3: to be blown people out by twenty eight to thirty

890
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 3: every week. And then the other guy is Zach Pascal

891
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 3: because even though my squag Watkins did bounce back in

892
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:42,600
Speaker 3: terms of his route participation last week, it wasn't to

893
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:45,840
Speaker 3: his normal season level.

894
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:48,240
Speaker 1: His normal level is sixty two percent.

895
00:42:48,680 --> 00:42:51,800
Speaker 3: Last week it was fifty two percent, and Pascal was

896
00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:52,760
Speaker 3: at thirty seven percent.

897
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:54,480
Speaker 1: The game before he was at thirty eight percent.

898
00:42:55,040 --> 00:42:57,879
Speaker 3: It's just that they used more tight end heavy tight

899
00:42:57,960 --> 00:42:59,839
Speaker 3: end personnel and so Watkins was down at twenty.

900
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:02,240
Speaker 1: But the point is Pascal.

901
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:05,040
Speaker 3: Has for now five straight weeks seen an increase in

902
00:43:05,160 --> 00:43:07,120
Speaker 3: terms of well four straight weeks, and then he's kind

903
00:43:07,120 --> 00:43:09,600
Speaker 3: of stayed around thirty thirty seven thirty eight for the

904
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:11,719
Speaker 3: last for the two postseason games. But he has seen

905
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 3: a bump of about ten percent, And I just wonder

906
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:18,560
Speaker 3: if you have any interest in him being that he's

907
00:43:18,640 --> 00:43:21,640
Speaker 3: kind of he still is closing the gap with uh

908
00:43:22,120 --> 00:43:25,160
Speaker 3: with Watkins, and there just really is no It's hard

909
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:28,840
Speaker 3: to roster any other Eagles pass catchers like Game I

910
00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:30,879
Speaker 3: guess you could call a pass catcher, but you know,

911
00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 3: Jack Stole's probably only gonna get five routes. He hasn't

912
00:43:33,719 --> 00:43:38,080
Speaker 3: really been targeted in the red zone. Coubby only returns kicks,

913
00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:42,800
Speaker 3: cal Kata might not even run one route. So Pascal

914
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:45,760
Speaker 3: is kind of that only other guy that if you're saying, okay,

915
00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:49,200
Speaker 3: he could get a cheap touchdown, and he could, but

916
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:52,000
Speaker 3: I'm just curious, what are your thoughts on him.

917
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:54,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, So I think with Quez, you know, he can

918
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 4: break the slates, you know, with one or two big

919
00:43:57,200 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 4: catches a touchdown.

920
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:02,359
Speaker 2: I think with pass out you need a touchdown. And

921
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:05,960
Speaker 2: he he has been in on their goal line.

922
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:09,040
Speaker 4: Looks he's in there, you know, run block, So he

923
00:44:09,200 --> 00:44:11,400
Speaker 4: has been on the field at least on those plays.

924
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 4: And if they do something where you know they they

925
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:16,279
Speaker 4: fake the handoff and they throw it. He's one of

926
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 4: three or four targets that could catch a touchdown. So

927
00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:22,719
Speaker 4: he's definitely out there in those kind of like cheap

928
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 4: touchdown plays. So yeah, I think he's definitely worth a flyer.

929
00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:28,239
Speaker 4: But with him, we're not, you know, trying to get

930
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:31,279
Speaker 4: three catches for fifty yards him. It's literally just getting

931
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:35,600
Speaker 4: a cheap touchdown. And he has seeing those snaps the

932
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:37,759
Speaker 4: past couple of games, so I think he's definitely worth

933
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 4: a couple of dark throws. I think Quez has more

934
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:43,479
Speaker 4: paths to get there, but there is certainly a path

935
00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:44,080
Speaker 4: for Pascal.

936
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:45,040
Speaker 1: Yeah.

937
00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:47,640
Speaker 3: I have a touchdown adds around about five and a

938
00:44:47,680 --> 00:44:52,360
Speaker 3: half percent, So you know, I kind of say, okay,

939
00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 3: by making one hundred lineups and there's a five to

940
00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:58,120
Speaker 3: six percent chance, yeah, Pascal scored, you.

941
00:44:58,120 --> 00:44:59,799
Speaker 1: Probably want him in double that.

942
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:02,760
Speaker 3: You know, you probably want to at least you know, twelve,

943
00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:05,480
Speaker 3: you know, ten to to fifteen lineup. So yeah, I

944
00:45:05,480 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 3: think I'm gonna still have a good amount of Pascal

945
00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:11,880
Speaker 3: just because it's it's tough to kind of get some

946
00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:14,320
Speaker 3: of these other Eagles guys in there, and Jack Stole,

947
00:45:14,680 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 3: he's really not popping for me. You know, even as

948
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:20,880
Speaker 3: much even the way Pascal is because he just hasn't

949
00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:23,880
Speaker 3: really you know, he's run like a half dozen routes

950
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:26,200
Speaker 3: and he's lucky if he gets like a five yard catch.

951
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:29,360
Speaker 3: So I suppose he could get a touchdown, but I

952
00:45:29,400 --> 00:45:32,040
Speaker 3: have his touchdown odds, like, you know, closer to three

953
00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:35,240
Speaker 3: three four percent and kind of in that same range.

954
00:45:35,239 --> 00:45:38,040
Speaker 1: So I'd rather go with the wide out. All right,

955
00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 1: Do we got the Do we have luck rankings for

956
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:40,239
Speaker 1: Super Bowl?

957
00:45:40,760 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 2: Yeah?

958
00:45:41,760 --> 00:45:43,839
Speaker 4: Right now, it's it's not a luck raking it well,

959
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:46,200
Speaker 4: I guess it is when you consider that the Chiefs

960
00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:49,160
Speaker 4: number one and the Eagles are number two, So that's

961
00:45:49,239 --> 00:45:50,480
Speaker 4: kind of how you get to the super Bowl.

962
00:45:50,520 --> 00:45:51,800
Speaker 2: You have to get lucky at some point.

963
00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:54,239
Speaker 4: But I think, you know, just Bowl teams are really good,

964
00:45:54,320 --> 00:45:57,480
Speaker 4: so I would just bet this game straight up.

965
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:00,920
Speaker 2: Do you have any thoughts on spread and everything?

966
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 1: I'm right in line.

967
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:03,840
Speaker 3: I know that's the kind of boring thing, you know.

968
00:46:04,080 --> 00:46:08,320
Speaker 3: I thought it was kind of wild when the Chiefs

969
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:10,759
Speaker 3: were I think the Chiefs opened what like minus two

970
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:14,040
Speaker 3: two and a half, and like I by the time

971
00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:16,640
Speaker 3: I went to go bett Pildelphia that that had changed.

972
00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:19,319
Speaker 1: So I didn't. I didn't get to take advantage of it.

973
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:20,120
Speaker 2: I was too slow.

974
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:23,840
Speaker 3: But I think now it's pretty much in line. I

975
00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:26,440
Speaker 3: do see a close game. I know we haven't got

976
00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 3: that with the Eagles yet, but you know, I think

977
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:33,080
Speaker 3: last time the Chiefs were in the Super Bowl, it

978
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:36,720
Speaker 3: was got Tampa Bay thirty one nine. And I think

979
00:46:37,480 --> 00:46:39,200
Speaker 3: and that's also why I like a guy like Pacheco,

980
00:46:39,239 --> 00:46:41,760
Speaker 3: because I just think they they're going to take steps

981
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:44,600
Speaker 3: to make sure that they don't lose the same way

982
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 3: you know, with with my homes, just.

983
00:46:46,680 --> 00:46:48,320
Speaker 1: Kind of under duress.

984
00:46:48,360 --> 00:46:50,319
Speaker 3: So I do think, you know, to your point, we'll

985
00:46:50,360 --> 00:46:51,839
Speaker 3: see a lot of door Gray, we'll see a lot

986
00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:54,240
Speaker 3: of forts, and I think we'll see a lot of Pacheco.

987
00:46:54,560 --> 00:46:58,799
Speaker 3: And and to answer your earlier question, I think Pachecot's

988
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:02,799
Speaker 3: continue to see more routes out of the backfield because

989
00:47:02,840 --> 00:47:05,279
Speaker 3: I think I think they're gonna just want to use

990
00:47:05,440 --> 00:47:09,560
Speaker 3: those heavier formations, especially with the wide receiving core influx

991
00:47:09,600 --> 00:47:11,960
Speaker 3: and not really reliable. You know, even if all of

992
00:47:11,960 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 3: those guys are healthy, do you count on them to

993
00:47:14,760 --> 00:47:17,960
Speaker 3: make it through the game, you know, So I do

994
00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:20,760
Speaker 3: think you're gonna see those formations.

995
00:47:20,800 --> 00:47:22,960
Speaker 1: Maybe you get Edwards e Layer back.

996
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:26,640
Speaker 3: As well, So I do think we could see a

997
00:47:26,640 --> 00:47:29,480
Speaker 3: little bit more of a run heavy script for the

998
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:31,400
Speaker 3: just heavy personnel script.

999
00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:34,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, what about you any any anything?

1000
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:36,880
Speaker 4: Oh? Yeah, I had Eagles minus one and a half,

1001
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:39,600
Speaker 4: so that the market has finally settled exactly where I

1002
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:41,799
Speaker 4: had it. I thought, you know, if it got up

1003
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:43,799
Speaker 4: the Chiefs plus three, I was gonna hammer that.

1004
00:47:44,440 --> 00:47:44,960
Speaker 2: Never did.

1005
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:47,719
Speaker 4: But a lot of the props I'm looking at, I

1006
00:47:47,719 --> 00:47:50,279
Speaker 4: haven't locked anything and yet, but a lot of the

1007
00:47:50,280 --> 00:47:53,120
Speaker 4: props I do like kind of correlate with the Chiefs

1008
00:47:53,280 --> 00:47:56,040
Speaker 4: leading game script, and I think some of that is

1009
00:47:56,200 --> 00:47:59,000
Speaker 4: do just the Eagles haven't been in a trailing game script,

1010
00:47:59,120 --> 00:48:02,880
Speaker 4: so I think there's some sneaky value in the investing

1011
00:48:02,920 --> 00:48:06,439
Speaker 4: in their passing attack, investing in the Chiefs running game.

1012
00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:11,200
Speaker 4: So that just early observations, a lot of the props

1013
00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:14,080
Speaker 4: I might be on would correlate nicely with taking the

1014
00:48:14,160 --> 00:48:16,280
Speaker 4: Chiefs plus one and a half. But I just haven't

1015
00:48:16,320 --> 00:48:18,279
Speaker 4: taken a position on that quite yet.

1016
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:18,959
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1017
00:48:19,000 --> 00:48:22,480
Speaker 3: And as a reminder, we'll have full prop coverage on

1018
00:48:22,880 --> 00:48:27,000
Speaker 3: the Propabamus episode next week over on the Action Network

1019
00:48:27,040 --> 00:48:30,719
Speaker 3: podcast channel. Also, we'll be on the favorites next week

1020
00:48:30,760 --> 00:48:33,359
Speaker 3: as well to break down some props, so be sure

1021
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:35,839
Speaker 3: to check those out. Of course, you can follow Sewan

1022
00:48:35,880 --> 00:48:38,320
Speaker 3: on Twitter at the Underscore Odds Maker, you can follow

1023
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:41,200
Speaker 3: me at Chris Raybon, and you can find us at

1024
00:48:41,200 --> 00:48:45,400
Speaker 3: those same handles on the free award winning Action Network app.

1025
00:48:45,440 --> 00:48:48,560
Speaker 1: Be sure to download the app as well. We have live.

1026
00:48:48,360 --> 00:48:51,160
Speaker 3: Player prop odds tracking now, so a lot of good

1027
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:53,719
Speaker 3: stuff on the app. Action Network dot com for all

1028
00:48:53,760 --> 00:48:59,560
Speaker 3: of our Super Bowl fifty seven betting content and Fantacy

1029
00:48:59,600 --> 00:49:03,880
Speaker 3: Labs for our DFS tools and models for super Bowl

1030
00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:07,800
Speaker 3: fifty seven. This will be our last Fantasy Flax episode

1031
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:11,799
Speaker 3: for this season. We'll obviously be back in the off season.

1032
00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:15,640
Speaker 3: We'll keep you guys updated and we'll start talking twenty

1033
00:49:15,719 --> 00:49:16,200
Speaker 3: twenty three.

1034
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:19,640
Speaker 1: But until then, it's been a great year.

1035
00:49:19,920 --> 00:49:23,640
Speaker 3: And good luck to you, Sean, and good luck to

1036
00:49:23,640 --> 00:49:27,560
Speaker 3: everybody out there until twenty twenty three off season.

1037
00:49:27,640 --> 00:49:37,000
Speaker 1: Let's get this money call. Action Network reminds you please

1038
00:49:37,040 --> 00:49:40,440
Speaker 1: gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has

1039
00:49:40,480 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 1: a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven

1040
00:49:43,760 --> 00:49:45,200
Speaker 1: at one eight hundred Gambler