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Speaker 2: With Dailey Whet. I can't ignore the fact that more
Speaker 2: than seventy five million Americans have already voted, raising a
Speaker 2: lot of questions about turn out tomorrow and how long
Speaker 2: it's going to take to call some of these races.
Speaker 3: Keep in mind, less than one hundred and fifty five
Speaker 3: million voted in twenty twenty, so already about half of
Speaker 3: the electorates from the last cycle has cast a ballot,
Speaker 3: including in some of those critical battleground states. Georgia, North
Speaker 3: Carolina have already seen four million people or more vote,
Speaker 3: which is eighty percent of the total that voted in
Speaker 3: twenty twenty. We're of course going to be visiting some
Speaker 3: of those states this hour and in the hours to come,
Speaker 3: as the candidates are doing the same, taking on the
Speaker 3: battleground states this weekend present their closing arguments.
Speaker 4: We stand on the verge of the four greatest years
Speaker 4: in American history.
Speaker 5: You watch, it's going to be so good. It's going
Speaker 5: to be so much fun.
Speaker 4: It'll be nasty a little bit at times, and maybe
Speaker 4: at the beginning in particular, but it's going to be
Speaker 4: something and we will win.
Speaker 6: Because here's what everyone here knows. When you know what
Speaker 6: you stand for, you know what to fight for. We
Speaker 6: have an opportunity in this election to finally turn the
Speaker 6: page on a decade of politics driven by fear and division.
Speaker 2: So let's get in the field covering the Trump campaign
Speaker 2: for US. Now in West Palm Beach, Florida. Is Bloomberg's
Speaker 2: Tyler Kendall. What's happening on the ground there, Tyler, Yeah, Hey, Joe.
Speaker 7: I'm here in front of the Palm Beach Convention Center.
Speaker 7: This is where former President Donald Trump will rally his
Speaker 7: supporters tomorrow night for a night watch party as those
Speaker 7: results start to pour in. But before he gets here, though,
Speaker 7: he today Chris crossing the nation, hitting some of those
Speaker 7: key battleground states that we've been closely covering. Currently, he's
Speaker 7: in Raleigh, North Carolina. Then he's going to head over
Speaker 7: to Pennsylvania, where two campaign stops there, one in Reading,
Speaker 7: another in Pittsburgh, which is typically considered to be a
Speaker 7: Democratic stronghold, before ending the day in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Now,
Speaker 7: something that all these areas have in common is that
Speaker 7: they are in counties or they are near counties that
Speaker 7: former President Donald Trump lost in twenty twenty. So clearly
Speaker 7: a bid by his campaign to try to shore up
Speaker 7: support get out the vote in some of these areas
Speaker 7: where they feel he might have underperformed in last time around. Now,
Speaker 7: I don't have to tell either of you at this
Speaker 7: point in the race, it is all about turnout. Those
Speaker 7: are the voters that the candidates are trying to court.
Speaker 7: For a sense of the messaging that former President Donald
Speaker 7: Trump is trying to deliver to supporters to get them
Speaker 7: out to the polls. I want you to take a
Speaker 7: listen here to him addressing supporters in another battleground. We're
Speaker 7: closely watching Georgia.
Speaker 4: It would be nice, it's obviously not necessary, but it
Speaker 4: would really be nice to have more votes than they do.
Speaker 5: But we're going to.
Speaker 4: Bring so many things back to Oka and their common sense,
Speaker 4: things like that you need to get out and vote.
Speaker 4: We're going to do things that are going to make
Speaker 4: you so proud and we just don't want to take
Speaker 4: a chance.
Speaker 7: You know, now, we talk a lot about undecided voters
Speaker 7: today when we're talking about them, though it's not necessarily
Speaker 7: undecided between Trump or Harris, it's undecided on whether they
Speaker 7: will go to the polls at all. These are the
Speaker 7: voters that the campaigns need to mobilize. But it is
Speaker 7: important to note, as you noted at the top, we
Speaker 7: are seeing a surge in early voting, the latest count
Speaker 7: showing us that at least seventy six million Americans have
Speaker 7: already cast their ballots. Joe and Kelly. That is well
Speaker 7: above pre pandemic levels.
Speaker 3: All right, Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall live in Florida for this
Speaker 3: election week. Thank you so much. Now, as Tyler mentioned,
Speaker 3: Donald Trump will be ending his day today in Michigan,
Speaker 3: and that's where we go. Next. Joining us from Detroit
Speaker 3: is Bloomberg's Romaine Bostic. So, Romain, give us a sense
Speaker 3: of how it's feeling in super tight Michigan, not just
Speaker 3: at the presidential level, but in the Senate race as well.
Speaker 8: Yeah, this is probably one of the swingiest of the
Speaker 8: swinging states. Tyler was just saying that President Trump will
Speaker 8: be making another appearance here later tonight in Grand Rapids, Michigan.
Speaker 8: That will be at least his twenty second appearance here
Speaker 8: in the state of Michigan. Kamala Harris just leaving Michigan
Speaker 8: just a few minutes ago. She spent the last couple
Speaker 8: of days through Detroit and in Lansing, Michigan. She has
Speaker 8: made more than twenty stops here as well, including at
Speaker 8: least ten since Joe Biden dropped out of the race
Speaker 8: on July twenty first. Tim Walt's also been making his
Speaker 8: way through the state. JD Van scheduled to be in Flint, Michigan,
Speaker 8: and there's a big reason for that. Of course, the
Speaker 8: blue Wall state not quite the blue Wall state that
Speaker 8: it used to be. Trump flipping the state back in
Speaker 8: twenty sixteen, Joe Biden flipping it back in twenty twenty,
Speaker 8: and right now here in twenty twenty four, it's all
Speaker 8: up for grabs. A big part of that, of course,
Speaker 8: is the level of undecided voters here, probably more so
Speaker 8: than what we saw in the past two presidential cycles.
Speaker 8: A big part of that coming from union membership, a
Speaker 8: big part of that coming from the Muslim and Arab
Speaker 8: American population. Really undecided right now as to whether they
Speaker 8: should continue their tradition of voting for Democrats, something they've
Speaker 8: done by about a three to one margin in past elections.
Speaker 8: But the time I spent yesterday out in Dearborn and
Speaker 8: Dearborn Heights, Michigan really strongholds for the Arab American and
Speaker 8: Muslim populations tilting much more to Trump this election cycle.
Speaker 8: The mayor of Dearborn, a Muslim American endorsing President Trump,
Speaker 8: and Hammeratic mayor also endorsing Trump. That's the first Muslim
Speaker 8: majority city here in the United States of America. Anger
Speaker 8: right now about the Biden administration stance on the situation
Speaker 8: in Gaza. A protest vote, if you will, that could
Speaker 8: go for Trump or the third party candidate that's dominating
Speaker 8: the ballotier in those areas.
Speaker 2: Jill Stein a perfect framing of battleground Michigan.
Speaker 9: Thank you, Bloomberg's Romaine Bostik.
Speaker 2: As we throw the best of Bloomberg at this election,
Speaker 2: you'll be hearing a lot more about this as we
Speaker 2: make our way through the hour. He We want to
Speaker 2: bring you next to North Carolina, where Bloomberg's ana Edgerton
Speaker 2: is standing by with more Yet another swing state that
Speaker 2: is too close to call.
Speaker 5: Anna, that's right.
Speaker 10: I've just come from Trump's rally here in North Carolina.
Speaker 10: He was speaking just a short time ago, and I
Speaker 10: talked to voters outside, and everyone I talked to had
Speaker 10: already voted. Now, Trump's base in North Carolina is very loyal,
Speaker 10: very reliable, but the question is whether he can pull
Speaker 10: in those unaffiliated voters. They're nearly three million people in
Speaker 10: North Carolina who are not registered with either of the
Speaker 10: major political parties, and so those are really the voters
Speaker 10: that both campaigns are targeting. There's also a bit of
Speaker 10: an enthusiasm gap here in the final week. Republicans very
Speaker 10: loyal to Donald Trump, but Democrats have turned out and
Speaker 10: added people to their volunteer base. There are forty five
Speaker 10: thousand people who have volunteered for the Harris campaigns since
Speaker 10: she became the candidate, and ninety five percent of those
Speaker 10: are volunteering for the first time. So they're doing everything
Speaker 10: they can to turn out the vote to make sure
Speaker 10: that people who need to learn more about these candidates
Speaker 10: can and make the decision to actually go and cast
Speaker 10: a vote.
Speaker 3: All right, Bloomberg's Anna Ederton in North Carolina, thank you
Speaker 3: so much, And as we spend our time looking at
Speaker 3: these seven battleground states that ultimately could decide this election
Speaker 3: and how everything will shake out, we want to add
Speaker 3: the voice now of Laura Brown, political scientist and author
Speaker 3: of the book Amateur Hour Presidential character in the Question
Speaker 3: of Leadership. She is joining us live from Washington, d C. Lara,
Speaker 3: as we look at the battlegrounds in particular, I think
Speaker 3: over the weekend, everyone was struck by a poll not
Speaker 3: in one of the swing states. It was the Des
Speaker 3: Moines Register poll in Iowa that showed Kamala Harris up
Speaker 3: by three points. Obviously it's an outlier, but it does
Speaker 3: reveal some things demographically about women and senior women in particular,
Speaker 3: And I wonder what it makes you think about whether
Speaker 3: or not Kamala Harris is seeing a last minute surge
Speaker 3: in momentum.
Speaker 11: Well.
Speaker 12: I do think that there is a last minute surge
Speaker 12: toward Harris, but I think that this is a surge
Speaker 12: that has actually been under report for much of this
Speaker 12: campaign because so much of what is happening is about
Speaker 12: the overturning of Roe versus Wade and the Dobbs decision
Speaker 12: that has forced many women to reconsider not only their
Speaker 12: presidential votes but also their partisanship. And this is where
Speaker 12: there are fascinating numbers when you look at both the
Speaker 12: Seltzer poll and the early vote data.
Speaker 2: Well, interesting if we can add another poll to this conversation, Laura,
Speaker 2: and that's New York Times Siena College. They're out with
Speaker 2: their last blast of the cycle and it dropped this morning.
Speaker 9: Really interesting here.
Speaker 2: Not only are things tied up, we know that in
Speaker 2: the swing states, but the early vote is giving us
Speaker 2: a sense maybe of the direction that things are going
Speaker 2: in the late hours. Here signs that late deciders are
Speaker 2: breaking for Harris. Among the eight percent of voters who
Speaker 2: said they had only recently decided on their vote, she
Speaker 2: wins fifty five percent to try forty four percent. How
Speaker 2: seriously are you taking these numbers?
Speaker 9: Well?
Speaker 12: I take them seriously because when you look at the
Speaker 12: overall early vote data, we don't know who is actually
Speaker 12: voting for whom. But what we do know is who
Speaker 12: is turning out, and who's turning out are white women
Speaker 12: who are older, and many of them in suburbs. Because
Speaker 12: when you look at that data, you do see that
Speaker 12: there is a gender gap. You do see that it's
Speaker 12: suburban voters, and you do see that it's more senior
Speaker 12: voters than not. And I think that this is going
Speaker 12: to be important as.
Speaker 11: We play this forward.
Speaker 12: It's also particularly interesting when you think about Iowa, which
Speaker 12: had a sort of reversal or a lockdown with regard
Speaker 12: to abortion in the immediate aftermath of the decision, and
Speaker 12: then you take a look at some of those southern
Speaker 12: states where Harris and the Democrats are even competing at
Speaker 12: the Senate level, those in some ways look not like
Speaker 12: as uncertain as what we're actually seen in Pennsylvania, where
Speaker 12: abortion has been protected.
Speaker 3: Well, so as we consider that, Laura, and in the
Speaker 3: states in which there is abortion on the ballot in
Speaker 3: this cycle, along with the presidential or down ballot candidates,
Speaker 3: whatever it is, including states like Florida, for example, and
Speaker 3: I wonder if that's where you will be watching for
Speaker 3: surprises as areas where there are these other measures on
Speaker 3: the ballot aside from just the candidates themselves. I could
Speaker 3: add marijuana to that list or any number of others.
Speaker 11: Yes, but I agree with you.
Speaker 12: I do think that if there are surprises that happen,
Speaker 12: they're going to happen in states that have already placed
Speaker 12: in ordinate restrictions on abortion, and women are already faced
Speaker 12: with the healthcare consequences of those decisions.
Speaker 2: I want to ask you a little bit more about
Speaker 2: the undecided voter, Lara Brown, because I'm not sure who
Speaker 2: this person is.
Speaker 9: We still haven't met them.
Speaker 2: We keep talking about them, and I know we're fighting
Speaker 2: over a very narrow slice of pie here, But that
Speaker 2: Siana pol I mentioned found eleven percent of voters remain
Speaker 2: undecided or persuadable. That numbers down from sixteen percent about
Speaker 2: a month ago. Who are these people? What is making
Speaker 2: up this rare breed?
Speaker 12: Well, I would argue that many of these undeciders are
Speaker 12: people who actually were what we called the double haters, right.
Speaker 11: They are people who likely.
Speaker 12: Voted for Trump at one point in twenty twenty, maybe
Speaker 12: reverse themselves and voted for Biden, and now what they're
Speaker 12: uncomfortable with is they didn't like either choice they had.
Speaker 12: Harris has been able to turn the page and offer
Speaker 12: them a sense of change, but many of them are
Speaker 12: not yet sold because she is part of the current administration.
Speaker 12: So I think their choice is really, are they going
Speaker 12: to sort of side with who they did last time,
Speaker 12: which was the Democrats or are they going to just
Speaker 12: skip voting altogether or.
Speaker 3: Perhaps pick another choice which may appear on the ballot
Speaker 3: in some of these states. Laura, we were just hearing
Speaker 3: from our very own remain bostic about the movement toward
Speaker 3: Jill Stein within some of the population in Michigan. But
Speaker 3: RFK Junior is also going to be on the ballot
Speaker 3: in Michigan. Court decided so, and I wonder what impact
Speaker 3: do you think that will have.
Speaker 12: I think many of those voters are going to decide
Speaker 12: it may not be worth it to turn out because
Speaker 12: they know that in this election in particular, third party
Speaker 12: candidates are not generating a significant amount of support, and
Speaker 12: most voters on election day ask themselves if they are
Speaker 12: comfortable wasting their vote. So I do think we're going
Speaker 12: to see very little actual vote share at the end
Speaker 12: of the day for these third party candidates.
Speaker 2: A lot of questions LEARA about tickets splitting, and I
Speaker 2: know I get some my roles when I ask experts
Speaker 2: about this, but the fact is all the Democratic candidates
Speaker 2: for Senate and the races that we're watching are outperforming
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris in those cycles echoed again today in that
Speaker 2: Siena poll. Will ticket splitting be a phenomenon in states
Speaker 2: beyond Arizona.
Speaker 12: Well, I think we are going to see it in
Speaker 12: some states. I would be surprised if it was, you know,
Speaker 12: double ditch it, or that it was more than sort
Speaker 12: of four percent of voters doing that.
Speaker 11: But there are some voters.
Speaker 12: Who say to themselves they'd like to have their incumbent
Speaker 12: be re elected, but they may have a desire for
Speaker 12: change at the top of the ticket, and that could
Speaker 12: you know, reverse as well. So we will see some
Speaker 12: splitting because many voters say to themselves it's good to
Speaker 12: have divided government, even if all of our political science
Speaker 12: shows that that is a for deadlock.
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, markets might prefer a divided government, as we
Speaker 3: consider our audience here on Bloomberg TV and radio, and
Speaker 3: that does seem to be at this time what they
Speaker 3: are betting on. Laura, We've had a long conversation for
Speaker 3: the last several weeks, frankly, of how the markets seem
Speaker 3: to have much more conviction than we were seeing in
Speaker 3: the polls, or than most political scientists like yourself were
Speaker 3: telling us about the odds of a Donald Trump victory.
Speaker 3: It does seem like some of those bets are getting
Speaker 3: paired back as we look at what is happening in
Speaker 3: the treasuries and the dollar and some of the other
Speaker 3: Trump oriented trades today. And I just wonder if this
Speaker 3: is now the market meeting what everybody knew, or if
Speaker 3: something else has emerged to get to where we started
Speaker 3: this conversation on the idea of momentum that actually suggests
Speaker 3: things are different on this Monday than they were just
Speaker 3: days ago.
Speaker 12: Well, I think what is different is that this is
Speaker 12: the time when organization actually begins to show. So I
Speaker 12: think what we are seeing is that the Harris campaign
Speaker 12: has been organized, They've put substainedial resources, they've had thousands
Speaker 12: of volunteers, and they have been door knocking in all
Speaker 12: of the battleground states. Former President Trump mostly outsourced that
Speaker 12: work to Elon Musk and to Charlie Kirk, and there
Speaker 12: are reports that neither of those efforts have been as
Speaker 12: successful or really as robust. So I think what we're
Speaker 12: seeing is the markets realizing that when the election sort
Speaker 12: of comes down to the wire, they may have made
Speaker 12: a bet more upon atmospherics rather than the data underneath.
Speaker 2: All right, well, let's stick with this for a minute then, Laura,
Speaker 2: because you know I have to ask you not who's
Speaker 2: going to win the election, but when it might be called.
Speaker 2: There are a lot of concerns on Wall Street that
Speaker 2: we could go through several days of uncertainty, not unlike
Speaker 2: four years ago, and we know how much the markets
Speaker 2: love that.
Speaker 9: What's your take on the days after this election.
Speaker 12: I actually think this is going to be called fairly quickly.
Speaker 12: And the reason why is because because both Georgia and
Speaker 12: North Carolina are poised to count their ballots really before
Speaker 12: the end of the late night early morning on Wednesday.
Speaker 11: Which really at the end of the day.
Speaker 12: What that means is we'll be waiting for Pennsylvania. But
Speaker 12: when we have a sense of Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina,
Speaker 12: we're going to know about the rest of the states
Speaker 12: and we'll have a strong sense of the electoral college.
Speaker 2: Really glad you could be with us on the eve
Speaker 2: of the election, political scientists, Lara Brown, We thank you
Speaker 2: as always for joining us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 9: It is on.
Speaker 2: There's no turning back, and you're mobilized at World headquarters
Speaker 2: in New York until we have a race call. More
Speaker 2: and more people joining us in the last week or so,
Speaker 2: I'd say, Kayley, suggesting exactly what Lara Brown just said,
Speaker 2: that it's not going to be next weekend or weeks,
Speaker 2: It's going to be a couple of days.
Speaker 3: Well, I think we're all holding out hope for that,
Speaker 3: keeping in mind that we are no longer in a
Speaker 3: pandemic as we were in twenty twenty, so voting may
Speaker 3: not be as prevalent as it once was, and some
Speaker 3: of these states have had important rules changes to make
Speaker 3: this thing go fast.
Speaker 2: Seventy seven million Americans voting. Our signature panel is with
Speaker 2: us here in New York as well. Rick Davis and
Speaker 2: Genie Shanzano are on the way next. So the fastest
Speaker 2: show in politics this is Balance of Power on Bloomberg
Speaker 2: TV and radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: It is worth pointing out a lot of Americans have
Speaker 3: already made up their mind with more than half of
Speaker 3: the electorate that voted in twenty twenty having already cast
Speaker 3: their ballot in this twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2: Let's remarkable number, more than seventy seven million. And by
Speaker 2: the way, records seen in states in the opening days,
Speaker 2: including North Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina, especially after the damage
Speaker 2: left by Hurricane Helen, really confounding the experts who thought
Speaker 2: this would be a different story that we would be telling.
Speaker 9: Also confounding the experts. Anne Selzer.
Speaker 2: Yeah, over the weekend, this poll out of Iowa is remarkable.
Speaker 2: As we listened to her conversation earlier today on Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Radio with Tom Keene, this of course is very important
Speaker 2: poll that we tracked.
Speaker 9: We talked about it a lot in the early states.
Speaker 9: When we got to Iowa.
Speaker 2: Of course, des Moines registered Mediacom. Iowa poll shows Kamala
Speaker 2: Harris leapfrogging Donald Trump forty seven to forty four percent
Speaker 2: in a state that nobody saw her winning.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so it was fascinating to hear from an Seltzer
Speaker 3: herself on this earlier. Here's a bit of that conversation.
Speaker 13: It was a shock, believe you me, when I went
Speaker 13: into the office after the first night of interviewing. No
Speaker 13: one would expect that Kamala Harris would have leapfrogged over
Speaker 13: Donald Trump into the lead.
Speaker 14: We had seen her move in the September.
Speaker 13: Poll from where we were measuring Joe Biden as the
Speaker 13: nominee back in June, and this is really just a
Speaker 13: continuation of that. She now leads by three points. I
Speaker 13: think I don't have that number right in front of me,
Speaker 13: and you'd think I would have it in delled in
Speaker 13: my brain exactly the point. Yeah, seventy seventy forty seven,
Speaker 13: forty four.
Speaker 15: Right, who, So what's driving this strength for vice president?
Speaker 13: And it's a continuation of what we saw in September,
Speaker 13: which is the difference between June and September. Were more people,
Speaker 13: dramatically more people saying that they were likely to vote.
Speaker 13: That measurement would be I'm going to definitely vote. If
Speaker 13: you just say probably, we don't count that, and that
Speaker 13: that increase accounted for Kamala Harris's bump. So less than
Speaker 13: one percent of people went for Donald Trump when thirteen
Speaker 13: percent went for Kamala Harris. And that was the difference
Speaker 13: between June. It was an eighteen point gap in June.
Speaker 13: A four point gap in September. That continues with our
Speaker 13: October poll in that the demographics more likely than average
Speaker 13: to say they will definitely vote or that they've already voted,
Speaker 13: are strong Harris demographics. It's women, it's college educated, it's
Speaker 13: younger people, it's older people as well.
Speaker 14: It's the incidents of voting.
Speaker 13: If your age sixty four and over is like ninety
Speaker 13: four percent, that's a really big number. And she does
Speaker 13: very well with older Iowans. In fact, her she wins
Speaker 13: by twenty points with Iowa women and just fourteen vote
Speaker 13: for Trump.
Speaker 14: The margin is fourteen for Trump.
Speaker 5: If juring.
Speaker 13: One thing crystal clear about the importance of older people
Speaker 13: is older women. Her ratio of win in women age
Speaker 13: sixty five and over.
Speaker 14: Is two to one. Interesting, that's a huge part of
Speaker 14: her success.
Speaker 2: Ann Selzer, driving the conversation today on Bloomberg and joining
Speaker 2: us now are signature of political pan Who else would
Speaker 2: you want to bore into the data? With Rick Davis,
Speaker 2: partner at Stone Court Capital, republican strategist, alongside Genie Shanzano,
Speaker 2: political science professor at Iona University, Democratic Strategists. They're both
Speaker 2: with US at World Headquarters in New York Rick Anzelzer
Speaker 2: said something important, older women more likely to vote, moving
Speaker 2: the numbers in this poll. A lot of people wanted
Speaker 2: to cast this as an outlier. How about you, Yeah, No,
Speaker 2: I believe in Anne Oracle.
Speaker 16: I mean, she picked off Obama's win in two thousand
Speaker 16: and eight. She was the only one who predicted Jony
Speaker 16: Ernz was going to be a senator. I mean, like,
Speaker 16: she is used to sticking her neck out, and in
Speaker 16: this case, she's seen something that is really counterintuitive, because
Speaker 16: you know, basically the older you get, the more likely
Speaker 16: it is you're going to vote Republican. And the Harris
Speaker 16: margins with white women under thirty or like forty percent,
Speaker 16: it's huge, but they always diminish as you go up.
Speaker 16: The movement she picked up was white women over sixty
Speaker 16: five were starting to move toward Kamala Harris, which is
Speaker 16: very unusual.
Speaker 5: They're coming right out of the Trump.
Speaker 16: Base, and if that continues, especially with non college educated
Speaker 16: white women, that could be a real foretelling.
Speaker 9: But it's about the movement of those voters, not so much.
Speaker 16: The ballot number doesn't necessarily mean Harris is gonna win Iowa,
Speaker 16: but she is making up ground quickly. With Donald Trump
Speaker 16: in that state.
Speaker 3: So if it's about momentum, when we just spent the
Speaker 3: last several weeks talking about what felt like stalled momentum
Speaker 3: for Kamala Harrison, a race that was tightening, Genie, does
Speaker 3: this signal to you some kind of eleventh hour shift?
Speaker 11: It does?
Speaker 5: You know?
Speaker 17: I think we forget that Iowa right next to Nebraska.
Speaker 17: It's one of the ten states Nebraska that has abortion.
Speaker 11: On the ballot.
Speaker 17: So arguably these citizens in Iowa are being inundated with
Speaker 17: that with those messages. Anne is also talking about in
Speaker 17: the congressional races out there where you see Democrats winning
Speaker 17: by double digits on the back of abortion. So I
Speaker 17: think part of this election is coming down to who
Speaker 17: do you fear most. Do you fear Kamala Harris controlling
Speaker 17: the economy or Donald Trump controlling reproductive health? And given
Speaker 17: his closing, which has arguably been undisciplined, is probably the
Speaker 17: most generous way to say it. You may be seeing,
Speaker 17: or we may be seeing in these polls people who say,
Speaker 17: you know what, the damage he may do is going
Speaker 17: to be more pronounced on abortion and liberty and freedom
Speaker 17: than hers as it pertains to the economy, which, except
Speaker 17: for that twelve thousand jobs report on Friday, has been
Speaker 17: macro economically getting arguably better.
Speaker 9: What do we think about the undecideds at this point?
Speaker 9: I mean, if you.
Speaker 2: Haven't figured this out yet, I don't know where you're living.
Speaker 2: But the new Siena poll today, eleven percent of voters
Speaker 2: remain undecided at this time. Those who have been early
Speaker 2: voting are apparently breaking for Harris. The eight percent of
Speaker 2: voters who said they had only recently decided on their vote,
Speaker 2: she carries by fifty five percent the Trump's forty four percent.
Speaker 9: What's happening behind the scenes right now?
Speaker 11: Yeah?
Speaker 16: Look, I mean you want momentum at the end of
Speaker 16: the campaign.
Speaker 9: Is that the definition the half the.
Speaker 16: Voting age population is going to cast their ballot on
Speaker 16: election day. Even though we've had this record voting, you've
Speaker 16: still got half as much to still go, and so
Speaker 16: you definitely want to be peaking at this point. The
Speaker 16: question is, because you've had such a large cohort already vote,
Speaker 16: how much of that does she have to chisel away
Speaker 16: create bigger margins on election day. Bigger margins then typically
Speaker 16: happen for Democrats on election day. Typically election Day Republicans
Speaker 16: ruler rust in this case, will she Well.
Speaker 3: I guess that's our question. And when we look at
Speaker 3: this early voting data coming in, and when we look
Speaker 3: at the early vote count in some of these states
Speaker 3: like North Carolina and Georgia, Joe and I've discussed this hour,
Speaker 3: more than four million people have already voted, eighty percent
Speaker 3: of the electorate that voted in twenty twenty. To what
Speaker 3: extent does that signal higher turnout this time around potentially
Speaker 3: or is that showing the demographic changes this country has
Speaker 3: experienced in the last four years since the last time
Speaker 3: we did this.
Speaker 17: Yeah, I will just tell you just in conversations with people,
Speaker 17: I am astonished by how many people I would say
Speaker 17: eight out of ten people I talked to have voted already.
Speaker 17: I myself include, and so you know, it is astonishing.
Speaker 17: That said, I'm hesitant to draw from the early vote
Speaker 17: numbers as astonishing as they are, because at this point,
Speaker 17: until tomorrow, we really don't know. Does that mean that
Speaker 17: there's more people who are going to be getting out
Speaker 17: or does that mean people are just getting out early.
Speaker 17: I don't think we know. And one thing I would
Speaker 17: say about Trump and I think we need to be
Speaker 17: cautious about this is the registration for Republicans is up
Speaker 17: in many states, including some of these swing states from
Speaker 17: twenty twenty Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada. So for all the sort
Speaker 17: of negative signs in the last twenty four to forty
Speaker 17: eight hours for Donald Trump on the ground and elsewhere,
Speaker 17: those registration numbers matter, and get back to this early vote,
Speaker 17: and so I think we have to be really cautious
Speaker 17: about drawing conclusions just based on.
Speaker 9: That early vote down ballot.
Speaker 2: This poll finds some interesting effects, but all the Democratic
Speaker 2: candidates for senator outperforming Kamala Harris right now, when you're
Speaker 2: going into an election with that kind of reverse coattails situation, Rick,
Speaker 2: who does that help?
Speaker 9: Well? It rarely helps the top of the ticket.
Speaker 16: You really see it more likely that if the top
Speaker 16: of the ticket is a runing strong, it can help.
Speaker 16: The coattails can help down ticket candidates. You rarely see
Speaker 16: the top of the ticket the presidential candidate getting the
Speaker 16: same level of support as legislative candidates or vice versa.
Speaker 16: Right is always going to be different, you know, people
Speaker 16: have different priorities when they go into the polling booths,
Speaker 16: whether it's their congressman and what they're trying to get
Speaker 16: done in their community or where they see the direction
Speaker 16: of the country. The problem Kamala Harris has is she's
Speaker 16: carrying the burden of an extremely unpopular administration and that
Speaker 16: suppresses the voters that she's going to get. So in
Speaker 16: order for her to win, she would be doing much better.
Speaker 16: She was just getting the base Democratic vote, which she
Speaker 16: won't get. But it doesn't mean she can't be the
Speaker 16: elected president by November.
Speaker 3: By tomorrow, well, Genie, we just have a minute left here.
Speaker 3: But when you consider this split ticket idea, is it
Speaker 3: more likely that all the states are going to go
Speaker 3: one way whoever whatever party wins the presidency also so
Speaker 3: gets the Senate, or that there will be some expectation
Speaker 3: defying results.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 17: I mean, historically we say that the House and the
Speaker 17: White House moved together, and so I would normally say
Speaker 17: they will go together and that the Republicans will take
Speaker 17: the Senate because the map looks so much better for them.
Speaker 17: But every time I turn around, as we have here
Speaker 17: for a year and a half, this election has defied
Speaker 17: all odds. So I'm hesitant to say, but I think
Speaker 17: at this point Republicans really look strong as it pertains
Speaker 17: to the Senate, and that means divided government, and that
Speaker 17: means guess what, really really hard to get critical things
Speaker 17: done in this country, and we are back to square
Speaker 17: one where people are frustrated again.
Speaker 3: All right, Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis, thank you so much,
Speaker 3: and we'll have more from our signature panel in the
Speaker 3: next hour of Balance of Power and of course throughout
Speaker 3: the week.
Speaker 1: If you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast,
Speaker 1: catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Evocarplay.
Speaker 5: And then Roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 1: Man wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live
Speaker 1: on YouTube.
Speaker 3: Joining us now from Massachusetts is a member of the
Speaker 3: House of Representatives. Democratic Congressman Jake Auchincloss is with us.
Speaker 3: Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Congressman, Happy election eve.
Speaker 3: It does feel like almost no one is willing to
Speaker 3: say anything with conviction at this point. But how are
Speaker 3: you feeling about becoming a member of the majority.
Speaker 18: Confident? I think Democrats are going to take back the House.
Speaker 18: I don't think it's.
Speaker 19: Going to be a blowout.
Speaker 18: Neither party would claim that at this point because of
Speaker 18: how polarized the country is right now. But I do
Speaker 18: think that Republicans dysfunction in the one hundred and eighteenth Congress,
Speaker 18: in which they had multiple rounds of infighting over their
Speaker 18: speaker choice, in which they brought the country to the
Speaker 18: verge of a debt default, in which they had to
Speaker 18: be really bullied into funding our allies. I think is
Speaker 18: going to speak to the swing voter in those two
Speaker 18: seats that are going to decide the majority, and it's
Speaker 18: going to give Hakeem Jeffries the gabble.
Speaker 9: What do you make of the conventional wisdom in Washington?
Speaker 2: And we've been hearing this for months and months, Congressman,
Speaker 2: that the House turns Democratic and the Senate turns Republican.
Speaker 2: As we talked to the investment community here every day
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg, there's the old Wall Street saying gridlock is good,
Speaker 2: and there does seem to be a preference to have
Speaker 2: a split Congress regardless of who wins the White House.
Speaker 9: How would you respond to those people?
Speaker 18: I think those individuals are under indexing to how deranged
Speaker 18: a second term of Donald Trump would be. Too many
Speaker 18: individuals are assuming that the same antibodies and the buddy
Speaker 18: politic would be there and the second term as we're
Speaker 18: there in the first term.
Speaker 19: But those antibodies have been depleted.
Speaker 18: The Republican Party is full on MAGA and unfortunately, we
Speaker 18: have seen the Supreme Court with its official immunity ruling.
Speaker 18: We have seen the state parties all supplicate themselves to
Speaker 18: his whims. And those individuals who are in the w
Speaker 18: House in term one, people like Jim Mattis, people like
Speaker 18: John Kelly, even someone like John Bolton, they're not going
Speaker 18: to be invited back to term two.
Speaker 19: It's going to be Trump and his two.
Speaker 18: Sons making decisions that are in the interests of their
Speaker 18: own businesses and of their own family fiefdom, not in
Speaker 18: the interests of the rule of law or the American people.
Speaker 18: And I think too few on Wall Street are understanding
Speaker 18: how bad for their business the degradation of the rule
Speaker 18: of law will be.
Speaker 3: But has Kamala Harris Congressman made enough of an argument
Speaker 3: that she wouldn't be bad for business, that she might
Speaker 3: actually be good for it, Because the prevailing thinking on
Speaker 3: Wall Street is Trump means lower taxes and higher profits.
Speaker 18: Yeah, So, first of all, that's not true, because Donald
Speaker 18: Trump wants to put in place tariffs that would cost
Speaker 18: the average American family at least four thousand dollars a
Speaker 18: year and would radically increase the cost of inputs for
Speaker 18: most American businesses. Tariff is an anti growth economic agenda
Speaker 18: in the way that he is describing it. Kamala Harris
Speaker 18: and the Democratic Party wants to be driving towards an
Speaker 18: economy that works like legos, not monopoly.
Speaker 19: We want an economy that builds things.
Speaker 18: I'd like this to put forward an audacious agenda for
Speaker 18: ten million units of housing, a thousand nuclear power plants,
Speaker 18: building more ships in the entire Chinese Navy, starting more
Speaker 18: small businesses than the rest of the world combined. We
Speaker 18: want to be an economy that builds things and does things,
Speaker 18: not an.
Speaker 19: Economy of middlemen.
Speaker 18: And I think Wall Street, I think Main Street can
Speaker 18: get behind that vision. Where Donald Trump is there to
Speaker 18: cross off names on his enemies.
Speaker 2: List, Congressman, more than seventy seven million Americans have already voted.
Speaker 9: How do you read into that number? What does it
Speaker 9: mean for tomorrow night?
Speaker 19: I don't read into that number at all.
Speaker 18: Actually, I think any prognostication based on the early voting
Speaker 18: is very subject to confirmation bias. The only takeaway I
Speaker 18: have from that is that thankfully most Americans have ignored
Speaker 18: Donald Trump's lies about early voting from twenty twenty, and
Speaker 18: they have readied that our election system, when it's not
Speaker 18: being interfered with by MAGA election deniers, is robust, is free,
Speaker 18: and is fair.
Speaker 3: Congressman, I'd like to ask you as well about what
Speaker 3: we've heard from the current Speaker of the House within
Speaker 3: the last week two suggestions about repealing legislation, at first
Speaker 3: the Affordable Care Act Obamacare, and then just days ago,
Speaker 3: a suggestion that the Chips Act passed during this administration
Speaker 3: would be repealed. He then clarified that he didn't understand
Speaker 3: the question he was asked. Instead, what he wants to
Speaker 3: do is streamline the legislation. And I wonder if you
Speaker 3: buy that clarification or if you really think that might
Speaker 3: be on the agenda.
Speaker 18: I think digging into specific policy details is missing the
Speaker 18: forest for the trees, because the core agenda of the
Speaker 18: House Republican Party is not actually any specific policy outcome
Speaker 18: and healthcare and semiconductor manufacturing and education.
Speaker 19: It's nihilistic.
Speaker 18: Unfortunately, Speaker Johnson is subject to the win of about
Speaker 18: a dozen members of his conference who simply don't want
Speaker 18: to govern at all. He's got a conference like the
Speaker 18: Joker from the Dark Knight. They just want to watch
Speaker 18: the world burn. And again, I think too many in
Speaker 18: Wall Street are thinking, Oh, that means gridlock, and that
Speaker 18: means that there won't be any threats to our short.
Speaker 19: Term business interests.
Speaker 18: It's just a very myopic way of looking at Washington.
Speaker 18: What they should be seeking are guardrails to protect the
Speaker 18: rule of law and a positive governing philosophy that actually
Speaker 18: wants to build out the productive capability of our economy
Speaker 18: rather than bringing us to the edge of a debt
Speaker 18: default every single cycle.
Speaker 2: Haley mentioned taxes, and of course we're going to have,
Speaker 2: no matter who wins, a grand debate about what to
Speaker 2: do with the expiration of the Trump era tax cuts,
Speaker 2: the twenty seventeen tax cuts. If it is Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: What would a Democratic led House.
Speaker 9: Do on that front?
Speaker 2: Would to get out of the Ways and Means Committee?
Speaker 2: How do you see that playing out? Because a decision
Speaker 2: will need to be next year.
Speaker 18: I'm not going to speak for Richie and Neal other
Speaker 18: Ways and Means Committee. I will say that the first
Speaker 18: order of business, should the worst happen and Donald Trump
Speaker 18: be elected, is going to be to protect the constitution
Speaker 18: of the United States, because he will not. Speaker Johnson
Speaker 18: will not, Republicans in general will not. So before we
Speaker 18: even talk about taxes, we're going to be talking about
Speaker 18: the institutions of our democracy and how we safeguard them.
Speaker 19: But in general, we have.
Speaker 18: Seen some indications of where there is bipartisan consensus on taxes.
Speaker 18: I'll give you two examples. One is the child tax credit.
Speaker 18: You know Mitt Romney has put forward ideas. Obviously Democrats
Speaker 18: are galvanized behind making fully refundable and expanding the child
Speaker 18: tax credit that puts money directly in the pockets of
Speaker 18: working families. And then number two is fixing the R
Speaker 18: and D tax credit issue from the Trump Bill in
Speaker 18: twenty seventeen and allowing businesses to amortize those R and
Speaker 18: D tax credits over five years.
Speaker 19: At least, that's a pro growth policy.
Speaker 18: I think both parties can get behind it, especially if
Speaker 18: pair with the child tax credit.
Speaker 2: Harm's been Thank you for the time Jake Aukinkluss joining
Speaker 2: us from his state of Massachusetts. It's good to see
Speaker 2: you and welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio Kaylee
Speaker 2: less than well, a little over, I should say. It's
Speaker 2: twenty four hours from now, polls will be closing.
Speaker 9: We're going to be looking at results here.
Speaker 2: This preamble that has been a year and a half
Speaker 2: long is about to end.
Speaker 3: Yeah, which is wild to consider. In some ways, this
Speaker 3: election feels like it has lasted for way longer than
Speaker 3: a year and a half, given everything that has changed
Speaker 3: over the course of the cycle, including the candidate at
Speaker 3: the top of the Democratic ticket. What was Joe Biden
Speaker 3: just months ago? Now, of course Kamala Harris, who is
Speaker 3: neck and neck with Donald Trump in many polls. And
Speaker 3: it's interesting as we consider how close the polls have been,
Speaker 3: that has not been the case when you look at
Speaker 3: betting markets and how markets have been pricing this election.
Speaker 3: They're starting to come together a bit more today, and
Speaker 3: maybe there is some rethinking of the odds of a
Speaker 3: Donald Trump victory on the eve.
Speaker 11: Of this election.
Speaker 9: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Of course, we've spent about a year with our own
Speaker 2: poll in consultation and partnership with Morning consult This is
Speaker 2: in October two October exercise. We just had our last
Speaker 2: drop and we're going to talk about the ground that
Speaker 2: we have covered the longest campaign of our lives, followed
Speaker 2: by the shortest campaign of our lives in the case
Speaker 2: of Kamala Harris Elioakley. If morning consult will be with us,
Speaker 2: Kaylee will also sit down with mc mulvaney, the former
Speaker 2: acting White House Chief of Staff of course in the
Speaker 2: Trump administration, who should have some interesting thoughts today.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm sure he will. And of course we'll also
Speaker 3: check in with our Bloomberg team that has scattered about
Speaker 3: the swing states, including what's going on on the ground
Speaker 3: in Georgia as well as Texas, where we're watching one
Speaker 3: of those critical Senate races. Yeah, and where abortion could
Speaker 3: be a featured issue, as we've been discussing with our
Speaker 3: guests for this first hour of Balance of Power. But
Speaker 3: we have another hour to go on the other side
Speaker 3: of this break, and of course many hours to go
Speaker 3: as we work through election week here, So stick with us.
Speaker 3: I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew live from New York
Speaker 3: on Bloomberg TV.
Speaker 20: Entreaty.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at New Eastern on Appocarplay and then.
Speaker 5: Royd Otto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: And as we consider the abortion issue in particular, Joe,
Speaker 3: this is one as we've had these conversations here on
Speaker 3: balance of power frequently throughout this cycle. To what extent
Speaker 3: it may be a driver of turnout given with everything
Speaker 3: we have seen in special elections in the midterms since
Speaker 3: the overturning of Roe v. Wade, it does tend to
Speaker 3: be higher turnout votes and when abortion is on the
Speaker 3: ballot and drive more women in particular to the polls,
Speaker 3: and women, of course, a group that Kamala Harris has
Speaker 3: consistently pulled better on than Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: We've seen that born out in a number of states,
Speaker 2: living Kansas. If you remember going through the midterms, the way.
Speaker 9: This was impacting.
Speaker 2: It's kind of the unquantifiable issue. Though we are seeing
Speaker 2: polling showing abortion right up there with the economy in
Speaker 2: some areas today.
Speaker 9: Siena New York Times pointed that out.
Speaker 2: But the An Salzer poll also makes us wonder that
Speaker 2: is motivating women over sixty five in a state like Iowa.
Speaker 9: It's pretty remarkable to consider.
Speaker 3: Yeah, women overall in Iowa twenty percent more likely or
Speaker 3: twenty points more likely for Harris than for Donald Trump.
Speaker 3: So for more on the polling we are seeing in
Speaker 3: this final stage of the race. Joining us is Eli
Speaker 3: Yoakley for Morning Consult, where he is US politics analysts.
Speaker 3: We of course have been working with Eli and the
Speaker 3: Morning Consult team here at Bloomberg for a year on
Speaker 3: our swing state poll that just came to a conclusion
Speaker 3: last month. Eli, welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 3: Obviously a lot of people are looking at that Iowa
Speaker 3: poll as an outlier, But is there something revealing in
Speaker 3: the Iowa poll that you're also seeing in your own data.
Speaker 20: Yeah.
Speaker 21: I mean this is a close contest nationally and in
Speaker 21: these key states. I think the point that we saw
Speaker 21: in Iowa about women and older voters proofs true. Kamala
Speaker 21: Harris is doing well with both of those groups nationally.
Speaker 21: Donald Trump's doing a little bit better with men. We'll
Speaker 21: see how this bears out. I think that a lot
Speaker 21: of people find it hard to believe that Kamala Harris
Speaker 21: would be able to pull off a victory in Iowa,
Speaker 21: but even movement against Trump there could suggest some negativity
Speaker 21: for his campaign and other states around there. Think about
Speaker 21: places like Wisconsin that are very white as well. Abortions
Speaker 21: a big deal there. But we shouldn't forget that Trump's
Speaker 21: also been campaigning on raising terraffs on other countries. That
Speaker 21: would probably spark some retaliatory efforts by other countries. That's
Speaker 21: something that would really weigh on farmers, be it when
Speaker 21: they go to buy a tractor or when they go
Speaker 21: to sell their goods. That might be weighing on people
Speaker 21: there just as much as some of these other issues.
Speaker 2: So what are the chances eli you'd do this for
Speaker 2: a living? This has been quite an experience for polsters
Speaker 2: over the past year. Were struck by the concer assistency
Speaker 2: in your polling that has found this essentially a tide
Speaker 2: race ever since Kamala Harris got to the top of
Speaker 2: the ticket. If we're too close to call right now,
Speaker 2: likely something's going to break in one direction or the other.
Speaker 9: Will there be a reckoning either way?
Speaker 2: For the polling industry, for the way you look at
Speaker 2: the sample, for the people you're contacting.
Speaker 20: Following Tuesday night, there's always a reckoning. We always get
Speaker 20: these questions after after elections.
Speaker 21: You know, I think one of the big things that
Speaker 21: we are going to be looking at after the election
Speaker 21: is this debate over weighing by pass boat choice. A
Speaker 21: lot of posters do, A lot of posters don't ANCELSR.
Speaker 21: I don't think does, for example in Iowa. Those kinds
Speaker 21: of questions I think are going to be asked by
Speaker 21: the industry.
Speaker 20: But hold your breath a little. Don't hold your breath
Speaker 20: on this.
Speaker 21: It's going to take a while to do a full
Speaker 21: accounting here after the election. It takes a while for
Speaker 21: all these states to get their ballots counted and to
Speaker 21: start doing those kinds of analysis. But you know, look,
Speaker 21: a lot of the numbers are in line across the map.
Speaker 21: Every poster I think is finding a close selection nationally
Speaker 21: and then a lot of these key states. The differences
Speaker 21: are pretty marginal right now. That is what leads us
Speaker 21: all to say this is we're going to be a
Speaker 21: pretty close selection.
Speaker 20: But I guess we'll find out tomorrow well.
Speaker 3: Or the next day or the day after that, depending
Speaker 3: on how long it takes to actually tally all of
Speaker 3: this up. If it's as tight as all the polls
Speaker 3: suggest it could take some time to actually count every vote.
Speaker 15: Eli.
Speaker 3: As we consider that, though, with the amount of early
Speaker 3: voting we have already seen, do you have any sense
Speaker 3: of ultimately what that is telling us about what turnout
Speaker 3: is likely to be. How many votes will there be
Speaker 3: to be counted that we're going to have to work
Speaker 3: our way through in the hours after poll closing.
Speaker 20: Yeah.
Speaker 21: For example, in North Carolina, it's I think over half
Speaker 21: right now of the state's registered voter population has cast
Speaker 21: balance and by the way, it's higher in those places
Speaker 21: that got struck by the hurricanes earlier this year.
Speaker 20: I think it's somewhat hard to parse out.
Speaker 21: I think the early voting and the mail voting rules
Speaker 21: have changed in twenty twenty was obviously a strange year
Speaker 21: for how this works. I think maybe the selection will
Speaker 21: be a better benchmark looking ahead at what you can
Speaker 21: extrapolate from those. But what we've noticed this in our
Speaker 21: data we've been collecting nationally is sort of a mode
Speaker 21: difference in terms of how you cast your ballot might
Speaker 21: be more predictive of who you're backing. I mean, early
Speaker 21: in person voters are more likely to be supporting Donald
Speaker 21: Trump those casting their ballots by mail are more likely
Speaker 21: to be supporting Kamala Harris. I think that Trump might
Speaker 21: have a bit of an advantage on election day votes,
Speaker 21: and so that might add some time as these as
Speaker 21: we're trying to find results, just as some of these
Speaker 21: states are counting those mail in ballots that maybe more
Speaker 21: likely to be favoring Kamala Harris.
Speaker 2: So ela help us rationalize some of the numbers that
Speaker 2: we're seeing here. On election Eve, New York Times CNAs says,
Speaker 2: among the eight percent of voters who said they had
Speaker 2: only recently decided their vote, I can't imagine what took
Speaker 2: so long. Harris wins fifty five percent to forty four percent.
Speaker 2: We have eleven percent voters remaining undecided. But when you
Speaker 2: look at the big election models here, five point thirty
Speaker 2: eight has odds favoring Donald Trump fifty three to forty seven.
Speaker 2: Nate Silver has something close to that, fifty one percent
Speaker 2: odds for a Trump win, The Hill odds of a
Speaker 2: Trump win fifty four percent. The economist has it as
Speaker 2: a coin flip. Why should the Harris administration be projecting
Speaker 2: optimism when you have numbers like these?
Speaker 20: No, I mean it's going to come down to who votes,
Speaker 20: and the Harris campaign.
Speaker 21: Had a big weekend and knocking on thousands and thousands
Speaker 21: and thousands of doors in Pennsylvania. They've got a strong
Speaker 21: field operation that means they're talking to people. A lot
Speaker 21: of that operation has been exported by the Trump campaign
Speaker 21: to other Republican actors. So the Harris campaign's optimism might
Speaker 21: be coming from what they're hearing on the ground from voters.
Speaker 21: Late breakers have had a chance to listen to a
Speaker 21: bit of an unfettered Donald Trump as he's become more
Speaker 21: trumpy and less restrained.
Speaker 20: In recent weeks.
Speaker 21: The kinds of information voters have been taking away about
Speaker 21: Kamala Harris, by the way, it continues to be overwhelmingly positive,
Speaker 21: as it has throughout her campaign.
Speaker 20: The vibes are on her side.
Speaker 21: The question is just going to be who's casting ballots
Speaker 21: in all these very very very closet contests.
Speaker 3: Well, and we know that by and large, the vibes
Speaker 3: among women are on Kamala Harris side. That doesn't remain
Speaker 3: the case though with men and young men in particular
Speaker 3: ELI who do tend to be lower propensity voters. Are
Speaker 3: we seeing signs though that they may actually be willing
Speaker 3: to show up in a way they haven't in past
Speaker 3: cycles this time around.
Speaker 20: Yeah, I think we're seeing energy among young people.
Speaker 5: I think the.
Speaker 20: Challenge here is Kamala Harris's.
Speaker 21: Numbers among young voters are just less than Joe Biden's
Speaker 21: were four years ago, and that is consistent nationally.
Speaker 20: It's a five point decline, I think.
Speaker 21: And then in some of these key states, the margins
Speaker 21: we're picking up in our final surveys in Arizona in
Speaker 21: Wisconsin are just far worse for a Democratic candidate among
Speaker 21: young people than you to expect that to be.
Speaker 20: I don't know that they're.
Speaker 21: Turning anti Democratic part party entirely, but you know, we've
Speaker 21: been picking up on an ideological shift among young voters for.
Speaker 20: A few years now.
Speaker 21: They're not more likely to say they're liberal, but they
Speaker 21: are more likely to say they're moderate, and so that
Speaker 21: might be working in republicans favor in the long run.
Speaker 2: I'd love to know what your expectation is eli on
Speaker 2: when we get a race call, at least for the
Speaker 2: top of the ticket. I know the house might be
Speaker 2: a little bit more complicated, but are you going to
Speaker 2: bed tomorrow night waking up to fight out on Wednesday?
Speaker 9: Or you're staying up because we might know.
Speaker 20: I'll go to bed. I bet it's I bet it's closest.
Speaker 21: I'm gonna be on Bloomberg on Wednesday morning.
Speaker 20: I bet it's Thursday.
Speaker 21: I think that it'll happen this week a little sooner
Speaker 21: than it did back in twenty twenty.
Speaker 20: That's my only prediction I would have made on your
Speaker 20: air waves today.
Speaker 9: So that's on FED day, Kayley, Yeah, wouldn't that be
Speaker 9: something when that happens at the same time.
Speaker 3: That's a good question.
Speaker 11: We should talk to management.
Speaker 3: It's going to be a big day, a FED decision,
Speaker 3: likely a twenty five basis point rate cut, and then
Speaker 3: potentially a call if Eli Oakley is to be believe,
Speaker 3: Politics Analyst, US Politics analyst at Morning Console Things, Eli
Speaker 3: as always thanks you.
Speaker 1: If you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast,
Speaker 1: catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern I.
Speaker 5: Have on car Play and then Roud Otto with the
Speaker 5: Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: The more of the Trump campaign's closing arguments and Republicans'
Speaker 2: chances of keeping control of the House. We're joined by
Speaker 2: someone who has worked on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.
Speaker 2: Former acting White House Chief of Staff, co founder of
Speaker 2: the House Freedom Caucus, Mick mulvaney. He's with us from
Speaker 2: the Nation's capital, and Mick, it's great to see you.
Speaker 9: I wonder how you would.
Speaker 2: Describe Donald Trump's closing arguments here. You saw that headline
Speaker 2: in the New York Times, dark and dour tones. Trump
Speaker 2: says he shouldn't have left the White House. He said
Speaker 2: as well in that same event, he doesn't mind if
Speaker 2: reporters are shot at. This is the noise, Mick. Some
Speaker 2: people are offended by it, understandably. What's the part that
Speaker 2: counts though for voters trying to make up their minds?
Speaker 11: Uh, not much.
Speaker 15: I mean, if you haven't made up your mind right now,
Speaker 15: then you're not going to make up your mind.
Speaker 11: There was an interesting op ed in the Wall Street.
Speaker 15: Journal this week and that said, look, if you're still undecided,
Speaker 15: please don't vote, because it just means you're not able
Speaker 15: to make a decision. Don't cancel the decision of somebody
Speaker 15: who can actually think this through. I don't put much
Speaker 15: weight on c arguments. I've seen the narrative Joe against
Speaker 15: Donald Trump. Then I go I see the headlines that
Speaker 15: I go actually watch the videos and the headlines and
Speaker 15: the videos don't match.
Speaker 9: You don't think it's fair, it's I.
Speaker 11: Don't think it's been accurate.
Speaker 15: I really don't look how I describe it to people.
Speaker 15: If there was a sort of concerted anti Trump media
Speaker 15: effort over the course of the last two weeks, it
Speaker 15: would look just like this. I have no evidence that
Speaker 15: it is. I have nothing but circumstantial evidence. But face it,
Speaker 15: the headlines have been pretty horrible against him. He didn't
Speaker 15: say he wanted to shoot Liz Cheney or put in
Speaker 15: front of a firing squad. He didn't say he wanted
Speaker 15: to physically hit Michelle Obama, which is the story that's
Speaker 15: going out today. I get it, But look, I don't
Speaker 15: think it makes any difference because there aren't any undecided
Speaker 15: voters left. I think it's just a question of whether
Speaker 15: or not the people who know how they want to
Speaker 15: vote are going to show up and vote. And that's
Speaker 15: why you're seeing this last minute run into Pennsylvania.
Speaker 11: Run into Michigan from all the campaigns.
Speaker 15: Because they know that's where the election is going to
Speaker 15: be won and lost.
Speaker 3: Well, there may not be many undecided voters left to me,
Speaker 3: but there are recently decided voters, if you believe the
Speaker 3: New York Times in Siana pole that looked at the
Speaker 3: battleground states, and it found that the eight percent of
Speaker 3: voters that said they had only just made up their
Speaker 3: minds pulled for Harris by a margin of eleven points
Speaker 3: fifty five to forty four percent for Trump. Do you
Speaker 3: believe that?
Speaker 11: You know, I'd have to see that. I'd have to
Speaker 11: see the actual polling to see.
Speaker 15: Do I think that there might be a bias against
Speaker 15: Trump at a New York Times poll?
Speaker 11: Yes, I do.
Speaker 15: But look, if they're right, then the election will be
Speaker 15: over on election evening.
Speaker 7: Right.
Speaker 15: If it's that much of a break from the undecided
Speaker 15: to kamal ayers, then you'll know by ten o'clock that
Speaker 15: night as to whether or not she had won. So
Speaker 15: the proof will be in the pudding. I just hope
Speaker 15: that if he does win, and I still think this
Speaker 15: is a coin toss election, there'll be some real scrutiny
Speaker 15: given to these this this media coverage in the last
Speaker 15: couple of weeks, because clearly it has been heavily anti Trump.
Speaker 2: We have spent a lot of time with Don Levy,
Speaker 2: who runs the Siena College survey operation that feeds the
Speaker 2: New York Times poll about his methodology, and he's pretty
Speaker 2: serious polster for what it's worth, Mick. But I wonder,
Speaker 2: just broadly, is there a reckoning for polsters coming out
Speaker 2: of this election that's going to have to break one
Speaker 2: way or the other here, isn't.
Speaker 11: It it is?
Speaker 15: I mean, look, they've been und a great deal of
Speaker 15: pressure since twenty sixteen. They underpolled Polsters underpolled Barack Obama
Speaker 15: twenty twelve. They underpolled Trump in sixteen and twenty. Are
Speaker 15: they under polling both of them today?
Speaker 11: You don't know. But is a specific example.
Speaker 15: You look at the Iowa poll that got a lot
Speaker 15: of attention over the weekend. Oh my goodness, they're tied
Speaker 15: in Iowa. Nine percent undecided in the weekend before it
Speaker 15: was forty seven to forty four last time I checked
Speaker 15: the math. That only adds up to ninety one percent,
Speaker 15: which means that nine percent in this in Iowa are
Speaker 15: supposedly undecided in the weekend of the election. That would
Speaker 15: be a national news story in and of itself if
Speaker 15: there were really that many undecided voters. So but look, look,
Speaker 15: politicians like me complain about polls all the time. Every
Speaker 15: time we're winning, we love the polls. Every time we're losing,
Speaker 15: we hate the polls. The proof is obviously going to
Speaker 15: be in the pudding. But let's be honest with each other.
Speaker 15: Polling industry is at a difficult time properly pulling Donald
Speaker 15: Trump several times over, and they may be having difficulty
Speaker 15: pulling Kamala Harris, Kamala Harris right now as well.
Speaker 11: We'll know in about what forty eight hours.
Speaker 3: Well, we'll see if that's true, Mick. We're all bracing
Speaker 3: ourselves for the potential for a long haul vote tally here.
Speaker 3: But as we consider the fact that Donald Trump himself
Speaker 3: has thrown a lot of cold water on some of
Speaker 3: the polls that he is seeing suggestions in these final
Speaker 3: stages of the race that he actually thinks he's winning
Speaker 3: by a lot, I wonder if you take that for bluster,
Speaker 3: or if that may already be sowing the seeds of
Speaker 3: a contestation of the ultimate results when they come in.
Speaker 15: Yeah, I mean, if you didn't have twenty twenty as
Speaker 15: a data point, you look at it and call it bluster, right,
Speaker 15: But how can you look at it like that, after
Speaker 15: we've got twenty twenty, is he laying the foundation for
Speaker 15: challenge and the outcome of the elections?
Speaker 11: By the way, I don't have a difficulty.
Speaker 15: Tyler did a nice piece on the lead and about
Speaker 15: the number of lawsuits. I know, difficulty with lawsuits. I'm
Speaker 15: fine with lawsuits. Lawsuits are part of the American electoral process.
Speaker 11: They just are.
Speaker 15: There's a reason there are people in this world, in
Speaker 15: this country who specialize in election law.
Speaker 11: We do this all of the time.
Speaker 15: And the more lawsuits you have, the more confidence you
Speaker 15: could have that the outcome is correct. You don't get
Speaker 15: to sit back and go, oh, it was stolen from me,
Speaker 15: and not present evidence, to present evidence as you win,
Speaker 15: as the Trump campaign has done a couple times already
Speaker 15: in Pennsylvania, and you lose as they did I think
Speaker 15: pretty much every time in twenty twenty. So to your point,
Speaker 15: you know, is he's laying a foundation Ordinarily in an
Speaker 15: inter rational world, I'd say no, But with a twenty
Speaker 15: twenty in hindsight and say, yeah, he's probably laying a
Speaker 15: foundation now for challenging the outcome in some fashion.
Speaker 2: Well, with that said, I know you're sensitive to the markets, Nick,
Speaker 2: when you've got your eyes on Wall Street here and
Speaker 2: what might follow Tuesday night, what's your thought on how
Speaker 2: long it's going to take to call this race and
Speaker 2: the volatility that we could experience. A lot of investors
Speaker 2: are hedging themselves for both outcomes right now.
Speaker 11: Yeah, I saw the VIX number.
Speaker 15: That doesn't surprise met it when you got short, give
Speaker 15: short shrift to the Russell. So because it's doing really
Speaker 15: well today, don't forget the.
Speaker 9: Smart Let's go im give it to us, Mick.
Speaker 11: That's exactly right. Look, I think it could take a while.
Speaker 11: I have to.
Speaker 15: I'm giving some speeches next week in Europe, and they're like, look,
Speaker 15: we want to talk about the outcome of the election.
Speaker 15: I'm like, you know, there's a really good chance we
Speaker 15: won't know the outcome of the election next but I
Speaker 15: know that's what everybody's saying. Let me focus on one
Speaker 15: thing that not enough is not getting enough attention, I think,
Speaker 15: which is that the House of Representatives may take the
Speaker 15: longest to settle. I think the Senate you'll know on
Speaker 15: election night. The White House you might know late into
Speaker 15: the morning, maybe a day or two later. Arizona's going
Speaker 15: to take a long time to finish. If it's that close,
Speaker 15: it could take a week or so.
Speaker 11: But the House races.
Speaker 15: California is notoriously slow in reporting final results from House races.
Speaker 15: I remember twenty ten when I got elected. I was
Speaker 15: having dinners here in January of twenty and eleven with
Speaker 15: people who didn't know if they were staying or not.
Speaker 15: So I think the House race could take a lot longer,
Speaker 15: and that affects the markets almost as much as the
Speaker 15: White House, because we'll know if we've got divided government
Speaker 15: or unified government depending on the outcome of the other
Speaker 15: two races.
Speaker 3: So how would you be feeling right now? If you're
Speaker 3: Speaker Johnson Nick?
Speaker 15: You know both he and had chemar on a razor's edge.
Speaker 11: I know.
Speaker 15: I talked to some of my Democrat friends. I was
Speaker 15: in Miami last week with a group of Democrats, and
Speaker 15: they were really excited about the House, really not excited
Speaker 15: about the Senate, and starting get excited about the White House.
Speaker 15: But then I look at some of the data, I
Speaker 15: see that real clear politics just moved Virginia ten, which
Speaker 15: is a race nobody knows about. A guy named Mike
Speaker 15: Clancy moved from a lean damn to.
Speaker 11: A toss up.
Speaker 15: That makes three toss up races in the state of
Speaker 15: Virginia alone. I guess is it's why Trump probably spent
Speaker 15: a little time there over the weekend. The races, Kaylee,
Speaker 15: are so there's so micro at the house level. There's
Speaker 15: so many local politics, so many local personalities. It's sort
Speaker 15: of hard to paint with a broad brush unless you
Speaker 15: have a wave election like you did in twenty ten.
Speaker 11: You don't have that here.
Speaker 15: So I think both Johnson and Hakim are just absolutely
Speaker 15: nail biting it down at the last minute.
Speaker 11: They're going to be probably a.
Speaker 15: Margin of five or six seats either way by the
Speaker 15: time it's over.
Speaker 2: Then why is Washington so convinced we're going to have
Speaker 2: a split Congress. I'm of the mind that this might
Speaker 2: be why we haven't seen more volatility, or at least
Speaker 2: losses on Wall Street going into this contest, because it
Speaker 2: might not matter so much who the president is if
Speaker 2: you have a Democratic Runhouse in a Republican run Senate.
Speaker 15: Two reasons Washington lives inside the Beltway and watches those
Speaker 15: same sort of drives, the same narratives we talked about
Speaker 15: in terms of the anti Trump messaging out of the media.
Speaker 15: Wall Street has always been a miserable predictor of what
Speaker 15: happens in Washington, d C. I keep telling my friends
Speaker 15: on Wall Street, asking somebody on Wall Street what's happening
Speaker 15: in d C is like asking somebody in d C
Speaker 15: what's happening on Wall Street. And nobody would be stupid
Speaker 15: enough to do that. So the bottom line is that
Speaker 15: not enough folks nearly get out into the real world.
Speaker 15: I drove from Raleigh, North Carolina, to Charlotte this weekend
Speaker 15: through the back roads, and I got to tell you,
Speaker 15: I think you're going to see North Carolina go for
Speaker 15: Kamala Harris. I think Donald Trump is going to walk
Speaker 15: to Georgia a winn in Georgia, but may.
Speaker 11: Well lose North Carolina.
Speaker 15: That's a feel you get when you get out into
Speaker 15: the real world, talk to folks and get out in
Speaker 15: New York and DC.
Speaker 3: Well, and of course that's where we all find ourselves
Speaker 3: Joe and I in New York and mc mulvaney in DC.
Speaker 3: We appreciate you joining us former acting White House Chief
Speaker 3: of Staff during the Trump administration.
Speaker 9: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
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