1
00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:10,639
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

2
00:00:10,680 --> 00:00:14,600
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

3
00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:17,279
Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Apocarplay and then Roud Auto with the

4
00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:21,280
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

5
00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:29,360
Speaker 1: Watch us Live on YouTube.

6
00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:28,400
Speaker 2: With Dailey Whet. I can't ignore the fact that more

7
00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:31,880
Speaker 2: than seventy five million Americans have already voted, raising a

8
00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:34,040
Speaker 2: lot of questions about turn out tomorrow and how long

9
00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:35,600
Speaker 2: it's going to take to call some of these races.

10
00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:37,520
Speaker 3: Keep in mind, less than one hundred and fifty five

11
00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:40,320
Speaker 3: million voted in twenty twenty, so already about half of

12
00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:42,560
Speaker 3: the electorates from the last cycle has cast a ballot,

13
00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:45,360
Speaker 3: including in some of those critical battleground states. Georgia, North

14
00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:48,879
Speaker 3: Carolina have already seen four million people or more vote,

15
00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:51,400
Speaker 3: which is eighty percent of the total that voted in

16
00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:53,360
Speaker 3: twenty twenty. We're of course going to be visiting some

17
00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:56,320
Speaker 3: of those states this hour and in the hours to come,

18
00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:58,320
Speaker 3: as the candidates are doing the same, taking on the

19
00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:01,920
Speaker 3: battleground states this weekend present their closing arguments.

20
00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:06,840
Speaker 4: We stand on the verge of the four greatest years

21
00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:08,000
Speaker 4: in American history.

22
00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:11,039
Speaker 5: You watch, it's going to be so good. It's going

23
00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:12,959
Speaker 5: to be so much fun.

24
00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:15,400
Speaker 4: It'll be nasty a little bit at times, and maybe

25
00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:17,480
Speaker 4: at the beginning in particular, but it's going to be

26
00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:19,360
Speaker 4: something and we will win.

27
00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:23,399
Speaker 6: Because here's what everyone here knows. When you know what

28
00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:26,160
Speaker 6: you stand for, you know what to fight for. We

29
00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:31,160
Speaker 6: have an opportunity in this election to finally turn the

30
00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:36,640
Speaker 6: page on a decade of politics driven by fear and division.

31
00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:40,240
Speaker 2: So let's get in the field covering the Trump campaign

32
00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:43,320
Speaker 2: for US. Now in West Palm Beach, Florida. Is Bloomberg's

33
00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:48,800
Speaker 2: Tyler Kendall. What's happening on the ground there, Tyler, Yeah, Hey, Joe.

34
00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:51,000
Speaker 7: I'm here in front of the Palm Beach Convention Center.

35
00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:54,000
Speaker 7: This is where former President Donald Trump will rally his

36
00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:56,640
Speaker 7: supporters tomorrow night for a night watch party as those

37
00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:59,560
Speaker 7: results start to pour in. But before he gets here, though,

38
00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:02,600
Speaker 7: he today Chris crossing the nation, hitting some of those

39
00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:06,040
Speaker 7: key battleground states that we've been closely covering. Currently, he's

40
00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:08,240
Speaker 7: in Raleigh, North Carolina. Then he's going to head over

41
00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:11,320
Speaker 7: to Pennsylvania, where two campaign stops there, one in Reading,

42
00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:14,000
Speaker 7: another in Pittsburgh, which is typically considered to be a

43
00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:18,040
Speaker 7: Democratic stronghold, before ending the day in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Now,

44
00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:20,720
Speaker 7: something that all these areas have in common is that

45
00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:22,960
Speaker 7: they are in counties or they are near counties that

46
00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:26,840
Speaker 7: former President Donald Trump lost in twenty twenty. So clearly

47
00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:29,040
Speaker 7: a bid by his campaign to try to shore up

48
00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:31,680
Speaker 7: support get out the vote in some of these areas

49
00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:35,480
Speaker 7: where they feel he might have underperformed in last time around. Now,

50
00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:37,240
Speaker 7: I don't have to tell either of you at this

51
00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:40,240
Speaker 7: point in the race, it is all about turnout. Those

52
00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:43,080
Speaker 7: are the voters that the candidates are trying to court.

53
00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:45,920
Speaker 7: For a sense of the messaging that former President Donald

54
00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:48,160
Speaker 7: Trump is trying to deliver to supporters to get them

55
00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:49,400
Speaker 7: out to the polls. I want you to take a

56
00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:52,480
Speaker 7: listen here to him addressing supporters in another battleground. We're

57
00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:55,160
Speaker 7: closely watching Georgia.

58
00:02:55,240 --> 00:02:58,040
Speaker 4: It would be nice, it's obviously not necessary, but it

59
00:02:58,040 --> 00:03:02,440
Speaker 4: would really be nice to have more votes than they do.

60
00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:03,880
Speaker 5: But we're going to.

61
00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:06,400
Speaker 4: Bring so many things back to Oka and their common sense,

62
00:03:06,440 --> 00:03:10,760
Speaker 4: things like that you need to get out and vote.

63
00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:12,240
Speaker 4: We're going to do things that are going to make

64
00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:14,480
Speaker 4: you so proud and we just don't want to take

65
00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:14,920
Speaker 4: a chance.

66
00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:21,520
Speaker 7: You know, now, we talk a lot about undecided voters

67
00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:23,720
Speaker 7: today when we're talking about them, though it's not necessarily

68
00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:27,400
Speaker 7: undecided between Trump or Harris, it's undecided on whether they

69
00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:29,720
Speaker 7: will go to the polls at all. These are the

70
00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:32,320
Speaker 7: voters that the campaigns need to mobilize. But it is

71
00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:34,480
Speaker 7: important to note, as you noted at the top, we

72
00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:37,280
Speaker 7: are seeing a surge in early voting, the latest count

73
00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,400
Speaker 7: showing us that at least seventy six million Americans have

74
00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:42,800
Speaker 7: already cast their ballots. Joe and Kelly. That is well

75
00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:44,360
Speaker 7: above pre pandemic levels.

76
00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,200
Speaker 3: All right, Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall live in Florida for this

77
00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:49,800
Speaker 3: election week. Thank you so much. Now, as Tyler mentioned,

78
00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:52,880
Speaker 3: Donald Trump will be ending his day today in Michigan,

79
00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:55,120
Speaker 3: and that's where we go. Next. Joining us from Detroit

80
00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:57,960
Speaker 3: is Bloomberg's Romaine Bostic. So, Romain, give us a sense

81
00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:00,760
Speaker 3: of how it's feeling in super tight Michigan, not just

82
00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:03,000
Speaker 3: at the presidential level, but in the Senate race as well.

83
00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:07,360
Speaker 8: Yeah, this is probably one of the swingiest of the

84
00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:10,240
Speaker 8: swinging states. Tyler was just saying that President Trump will

85
00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,960
Speaker 8: be making another appearance here later tonight in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

86
00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:16,760
Speaker 8: That will be at least his twenty second appearance here

87
00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:20,240
Speaker 8: in the state of Michigan. Kamala Harris just leaving Michigan

88
00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:22,520
Speaker 8: just a few minutes ago. She spent the last couple

89
00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:25,600
Speaker 8: of days through Detroit and in Lansing, Michigan. She has

90
00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:28,800
Speaker 8: made more than twenty stops here as well, including at

91
00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:31,760
Speaker 8: least ten since Joe Biden dropped out of the race

92
00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:34,400
Speaker 8: on July twenty first. Tim Walt's also been making his

93
00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:37,520
Speaker 8: way through the state. JD Van scheduled to be in Flint, Michigan,

94
00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:39,760
Speaker 8: and there's a big reason for that. Of course, the

95
00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:42,120
Speaker 8: blue Wall state not quite the blue Wall state that

96
00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:44,479
Speaker 8: it used to be. Trump flipping the state back in

97
00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:47,880
Speaker 8: twenty sixteen, Joe Biden flipping it back in twenty twenty,

98
00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:50,880
Speaker 8: and right now here in twenty twenty four, it's all

99
00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:53,159
Speaker 8: up for grabs. A big part of that, of course,

100
00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:56,960
Speaker 8: is the level of undecided voters here, probably more so

101
00:04:57,040 --> 00:04:59,440
Speaker 8: than what we saw in the past two presidential cycles.

102
00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:02,440
Speaker 8: A big part of that coming from union membership, a

103
00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:04,640
Speaker 8: big part of that coming from the Muslim and Arab

104
00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:08,240
Speaker 8: American population. Really undecided right now as to whether they

105
00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:11,640
Speaker 8: should continue their tradition of voting for Democrats, something they've

106
00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:14,640
Speaker 8: done by about a three to one margin in past elections.

107
00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:17,520
Speaker 8: But the time I spent yesterday out in Dearborn and

108
00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:21,599
Speaker 8: Dearborn Heights, Michigan really strongholds for the Arab American and

109
00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:25,600
Speaker 8: Muslim populations tilting much more to Trump this election cycle.

110
00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:29,360
Speaker 8: The mayor of Dearborn, a Muslim American endorsing President Trump,

111
00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:33,480
Speaker 8: and Hammeratic mayor also endorsing Trump. That's the first Muslim

112
00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:36,880
Speaker 8: majority city here in the United States of America. Anger

113
00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:40,800
Speaker 8: right now about the Biden administration stance on the situation

114
00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:43,680
Speaker 8: in Gaza. A protest vote, if you will, that could

115
00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:46,920
Speaker 8: go for Trump or the third party candidate that's dominating

116
00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:48,680
Speaker 8: the ballotier in those areas.

117
00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:52,279
Speaker 2: Jill Stein a perfect framing of battleground Michigan.

118
00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:54,039
Speaker 9: Thank you, Bloomberg's Romaine Bostik.

119
00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:56,520
Speaker 2: As we throw the best of Bloomberg at this election,

120
00:05:56,680 --> 00:05:58,760
Speaker 2: you'll be hearing a lot more about this as we

121
00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:00,560
Speaker 2: make our way through the hour. He We want to

122
00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:03,599
Speaker 2: bring you next to North Carolina, where Bloomberg's ana Edgerton

123
00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:06,600
Speaker 2: is standing by with more Yet another swing state that

124
00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:07,599
Speaker 2: is too close to call.

125
00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:10,920
Speaker 5: Anna, that's right.

126
00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:13,279
Speaker 10: I've just come from Trump's rally here in North Carolina.

127
00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:15,359
Speaker 10: He was speaking just a short time ago, and I

128
00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:17,720
Speaker 10: talked to voters outside, and everyone I talked to had

129
00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:21,159
Speaker 10: already voted. Now, Trump's base in North Carolina is very loyal,

130
00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:24,120
Speaker 10: very reliable, but the question is whether he can pull

131
00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:27,359
Speaker 10: in those unaffiliated voters. They're nearly three million people in

132
00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:29,839
Speaker 10: North Carolina who are not registered with either of the

133
00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:32,640
Speaker 10: major political parties, and so those are really the voters

134
00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:35,320
Speaker 10: that both campaigns are targeting. There's also a bit of

135
00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:39,280
Speaker 10: an enthusiasm gap here in the final week. Republicans very

136
00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:42,560
Speaker 10: loyal to Donald Trump, but Democrats have turned out and

137
00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:46,000
Speaker 10: added people to their volunteer base. There are forty five

138
00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:49,320
Speaker 10: thousand people who have volunteered for the Harris campaigns since

139
00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:52,080
Speaker 10: she became the candidate, and ninety five percent of those

140
00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:55,000
Speaker 10: are volunteering for the first time. So they're doing everything

141
00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:57,280
Speaker 10: they can to turn out the vote to make sure

142
00:06:57,320 --> 00:06:59,920
Speaker 10: that people who need to learn more about these candidates

143
00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:02,560
Speaker 10: can and make the decision to actually go and cast

144
00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:03,120
Speaker 10: a vote.

145
00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:06,839
Speaker 3: All right, Bloomberg's Anna Ederton in North Carolina, thank you

146
00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:09,040
Speaker 3: so much, And as we spend our time looking at

147
00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:13,000
Speaker 3: these seven battleground states that ultimately could decide this election

148
00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:15,320
Speaker 3: and how everything will shake out, we want to add

149
00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:18,320
Speaker 3: the voice now of Laura Brown, political scientist and author

150
00:07:18,360 --> 00:07:21,280
Speaker 3: of the book Amateur Hour Presidential character in the Question

151
00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:25,360
Speaker 3: of Leadership. She is joining us live from Washington, d C. Lara,

152
00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:27,360
Speaker 3: as we look at the battlegrounds in particular, I think

153
00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:29,920
Speaker 3: over the weekend, everyone was struck by a poll not

154
00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:31,880
Speaker 3: in one of the swing states. It was the Des

155
00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:35,760
Speaker 3: Moines Register poll in Iowa that showed Kamala Harris up

156
00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:38,800
Speaker 3: by three points. Obviously it's an outlier, but it does

157
00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:43,040
Speaker 3: reveal some things demographically about women and senior women in particular,

158
00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:45,240
Speaker 3: And I wonder what it makes you think about whether

159
00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:47,840
Speaker 3: or not Kamala Harris is seeing a last minute surge

160
00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,240
Speaker 3: in momentum.

161
00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:50,920
Speaker 11: Well.

162
00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:53,640
Speaker 12: I do think that there is a last minute surge

163
00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:56,880
Speaker 12: toward Harris, but I think that this is a surge

164
00:07:56,920 --> 00:08:01,160
Speaker 12: that has actually been under report for much of this

165
00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:05,440
Speaker 12: campaign because so much of what is happening is about

166
00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:09,400
Speaker 12: the overturning of Roe versus Wade and the Dobbs decision

167
00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:15,240
Speaker 12: that has forced many women to reconsider not only their

168
00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:20,240
Speaker 12: presidential votes but also their partisanship. And this is where

169
00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:25,880
Speaker 12: there are fascinating numbers when you look at both the

170
00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:28,880
Speaker 12: Seltzer poll and the early vote data.

171
00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:33,840
Speaker 2: Well, interesting if we can add another poll to this conversation, Laura,

172
00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:36,920
Speaker 2: and that's New York Times Siena College. They're out with

173
00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:40,160
Speaker 2: their last blast of the cycle and it dropped this morning.

174
00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:41,480
Speaker 9: Really interesting here.

175
00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:44,040
Speaker 2: Not only are things tied up, we know that in

176
00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:46,760
Speaker 2: the swing states, but the early vote is giving us

177
00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:49,000
Speaker 2: a sense maybe of the direction that things are going

178
00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:53,520
Speaker 2: in the late hours. Here signs that late deciders are

179
00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:56,160
Speaker 2: breaking for Harris. Among the eight percent of voters who

180
00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:58,400
Speaker 2: said they had only recently decided on their vote, she

181
00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:01,760
Speaker 2: wins fifty five percent to try forty four percent. How

182
00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:03,400
Speaker 2: seriously are you taking these numbers?

183
00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:04,880
Speaker 9: Well?

184
00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:08,200
Speaker 12: I take them seriously because when you look at the

185
00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:13,479
Speaker 12: overall early vote data, we don't know who is actually

186
00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:16,920
Speaker 12: voting for whom. But what we do know is who

187
00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:21,360
Speaker 12: is turning out, and who's turning out are white women

188
00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:26,240
Speaker 12: who are older, and many of them in suburbs. Because

189
00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:29,520
Speaker 12: when you look at that data, you do see that

190
00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:32,200
Speaker 12: there is a gender gap. You do see that it's

191
00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:35,840
Speaker 12: suburban voters, and you do see that it's more senior

192
00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:40,079
Speaker 12: voters than not. And I think that this is going

193
00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:41,680
Speaker 12: to be important as.

194
00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:43,280
Speaker 11: We play this forward.

195
00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:49,360
Speaker 12: It's also particularly interesting when you think about Iowa, which

196
00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:54,680
Speaker 12: had a sort of reversal or a lockdown with regard

197
00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:58,960
Speaker 12: to abortion in the immediate aftermath of the decision, and

198
00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:00,959
Speaker 12: then you take a look at some of those southern

199
00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:05,200
Speaker 12: states where Harris and the Democrats are even competing at

200
00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:11,040
Speaker 12: the Senate level, those in some ways look not like

201
00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:16,160
Speaker 12: as uncertain as what we're actually seen in Pennsylvania, where

202
00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:18,719
Speaker 12: abortion has been protected.

203
00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:21,680
Speaker 3: Well, so as we consider that, Laura, and in the

204
00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:24,679
Speaker 3: states in which there is abortion on the ballot in

205
00:10:24,679 --> 00:10:27,440
Speaker 3: this cycle, along with the presidential or down ballot candidates,

206
00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:31,160
Speaker 3: whatever it is, including states like Florida, for example, and

207
00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:33,200
Speaker 3: I wonder if that's where you will be watching for

208
00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:36,240
Speaker 3: surprises as areas where there are these other measures on

209
00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:39,200
Speaker 3: the ballot aside from just the candidates themselves. I could

210
00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:41,800
Speaker 3: add marijuana to that list or any number of others.

211
00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:44,559
Speaker 11: Yes, but I agree with you.

212
00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:47,280
Speaker 12: I do think that if there are surprises that happen,

213
00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:51,120
Speaker 12: they're going to happen in states that have already placed

214
00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:56,800
Speaker 12: in ordinate restrictions on abortion, and women are already faced

215
00:10:56,840 --> 00:11:00,160
Speaker 12: with the healthcare consequences of those decisions.

216
00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:02,800
Speaker 2: I want to ask you a little bit more about

217
00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:06,440
Speaker 2: the undecided voter, Lara Brown, because I'm not sure who

218
00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:07,240
Speaker 2: this person is.

219
00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:09,040
Speaker 9: We still haven't met them.

220
00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:11,559
Speaker 2: We keep talking about them, and I know we're fighting

221
00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:14,599
Speaker 2: over a very narrow slice of pie here, But that

222
00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:19,000
Speaker 2: Siana pol I mentioned found eleven percent of voters remain

223
00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:22,640
Speaker 2: undecided or persuadable. That numbers down from sixteen percent about

224
00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:25,760
Speaker 2: a month ago. Who are these people? What is making

225
00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:26,600
Speaker 2: up this rare breed?

226
00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:31,120
Speaker 12: Well, I would argue that many of these undeciders are

227
00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:36,520
Speaker 12: people who actually were what we called the double haters, right.

228
00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:39,000
Speaker 11: They are people who likely.

229
00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:42,680
Speaker 12: Voted for Trump at one point in twenty twenty, maybe

230
00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:46,280
Speaker 12: reverse themselves and voted for Biden, and now what they're

231
00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:50,760
Speaker 12: uncomfortable with is they didn't like either choice they had.

232
00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:55,440
Speaker 12: Harris has been able to turn the page and offer

233
00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:59,000
Speaker 12: them a sense of change, but many of them are

234
00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:03,240
Speaker 12: not yet sold because she is part of the current administration.

235
00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:07,319
Speaker 12: So I think their choice is really, are they going

236
00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:10,720
Speaker 12: to sort of side with who they did last time,

237
00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:13,480
Speaker 12: which was the Democrats or are they going to just

238
00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:16,240
Speaker 12: skip voting altogether or.

239
00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:19,120
Speaker 3: Perhaps pick another choice which may appear on the ballot

240
00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:21,160
Speaker 3: in some of these states. Laura, we were just hearing

241
00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:23,520
Speaker 3: from our very own remain bostic about the movement toward

242
00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:26,480
Speaker 3: Jill Stein within some of the population in Michigan. But

243
00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:29,160
Speaker 3: RFK Junior is also going to be on the ballot

244
00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:32,400
Speaker 3: in Michigan. Court decided so, and I wonder what impact

245
00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:33,160
Speaker 3: do you think that will have.

246
00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:37,560
Speaker 12: I think many of those voters are going to decide

247
00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:40,040
Speaker 12: it may not be worth it to turn out because

248
00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:43,760
Speaker 12: they know that in this election in particular, third party

249
00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:48,840
Speaker 12: candidates are not generating a significant amount of support, and

250
00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:53,040
Speaker 12: most voters on election day ask themselves if they are

251
00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:56,640
Speaker 12: comfortable wasting their vote. So I do think we're going

252
00:12:56,679 --> 00:13:00,480
Speaker 12: to see very little actual vote share at the end

253
00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:02,480
Speaker 12: of the day for these third party candidates.

254
00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:04,640
Speaker 2: A lot of questions LEARA about tickets splitting, and I

255
00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:06,600
Speaker 2: know I get some my roles when I ask experts

256
00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:09,320
Speaker 2: about this, but the fact is all the Democratic candidates

257
00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:12,280
Speaker 2: for Senate and the races that we're watching are outperforming

258
00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:16,840
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris in those cycles echoed again today in that

259
00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:20,920
Speaker 2: Siena poll. Will ticket splitting be a phenomenon in states

260
00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:22,480
Speaker 2: beyond Arizona.

261
00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:25,199
Speaker 12: Well, I think we are going to see it in

262
00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:28,920
Speaker 12: some states. I would be surprised if it was, you know,

263
00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:31,680
Speaker 12: double ditch it, or that it was more than sort

264
00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:34,040
Speaker 12: of four percent of voters doing that.

265
00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:36,440
Speaker 11: But there are some voters.

266
00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:39,960
Speaker 12: Who say to themselves they'd like to have their incumbent

267
00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:43,800
Speaker 12: be re elected, but they may have a desire for

268
00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:47,319
Speaker 12: change at the top of the ticket, and that could

269
00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:50,360
Speaker 12: you know, reverse as well. So we will see some

270
00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:54,760
Speaker 12: splitting because many voters say to themselves it's good to

271
00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:58,520
Speaker 12: have divided government, even if all of our political science

272
00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:01,000
Speaker 12: shows that that is a for deadlock.

273
00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:05,520
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, markets might prefer a divided government, as we

274
00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:08,000
Speaker 3: consider our audience here on Bloomberg TV and radio, and

275
00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:10,559
Speaker 3: that does seem to be at this time what they

276
00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:14,080
Speaker 3: are betting on. Laura, We've had a long conversation for

277
00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:16,280
Speaker 3: the last several weeks, frankly, of how the markets seem

278
00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:18,720
Speaker 3: to have much more conviction than we were seeing in

279
00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:21,400
Speaker 3: the polls, or than most political scientists like yourself were

280
00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:23,520
Speaker 3: telling us about the odds of a Donald Trump victory.

281
00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:25,840
Speaker 3: It does seem like some of those bets are getting

282
00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:27,560
Speaker 3: paired back as we look at what is happening in

283
00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:29,920
Speaker 3: the treasuries and the dollar and some of the other

284
00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:33,640
Speaker 3: Trump oriented trades today. And I just wonder if this

285
00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:35,760
Speaker 3: is now the market meeting what everybody knew, or if

286
00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:38,040
Speaker 3: something else has emerged to get to where we started

287
00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:41,680
Speaker 3: this conversation on the idea of momentum that actually suggests

288
00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:45,240
Speaker 3: things are different on this Monday than they were just

289
00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:46,119
Speaker 3: days ago.

290
00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:49,840
Speaker 12: Well, I think what is different is that this is

291
00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:54,800
Speaker 12: the time when organization actually begins to show. So I

292
00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:57,360
Speaker 12: think what we are seeing is that the Harris campaign

293
00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:02,680
Speaker 12: has been organized, They've put substainedial resources, they've had thousands

294
00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:05,720
Speaker 12: of volunteers, and they have been door knocking in all

295
00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:10,680
Speaker 12: of the battleground states. Former President Trump mostly outsourced that

296
00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:15,040
Speaker 12: work to Elon Musk and to Charlie Kirk, and there

297
00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:18,600
Speaker 12: are reports that neither of those efforts have been as

298
00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:23,320
Speaker 12: successful or really as robust. So I think what we're

299
00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:28,400
Speaker 12: seeing is the markets realizing that when the election sort

300
00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:31,920
Speaker 12: of comes down to the wire, they may have made

301
00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:36,960
Speaker 12: a bet more upon atmospherics rather than the data underneath.

302
00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:38,920
Speaker 2: All right, well, let's stick with this for a minute then, Laura,

303
00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:40,720
Speaker 2: because you know I have to ask you not who's

304
00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:43,480
Speaker 2: going to win the election, but when it might be called.

305
00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:45,360
Speaker 2: There are a lot of concerns on Wall Street that

306
00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:48,040
Speaker 2: we could go through several days of uncertainty, not unlike

307
00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:50,440
Speaker 2: four years ago, and we know how much the markets

308
00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:50,760
Speaker 2: love that.

309
00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:53,240
Speaker 9: What's your take on the days after this election.

310
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:58,000
Speaker 12: I actually think this is going to be called fairly quickly.

311
00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:01,840
Speaker 12: And the reason why is because because both Georgia and

312
00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:07,600
Speaker 12: North Carolina are poised to count their ballots really before

313
00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:14,280
Speaker 12: the end of the late night early morning on Wednesday.

314
00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:16,120
Speaker 11: Which really at the end of the day.

315
00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:19,320
Speaker 12: What that means is we'll be waiting for Pennsylvania. But

316
00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:24,680
Speaker 12: when we have a sense of Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina,

317
00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:26,840
Speaker 12: we're going to know about the rest of the states

318
00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:29,880
Speaker 12: and we'll have a strong sense of the electoral college.

319
00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:31,560
Speaker 2: Really glad you could be with us on the eve

320
00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:34,320
Speaker 2: of the election, political scientists, Lara Brown, We thank you

321
00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:37,520
Speaker 2: as always for joining us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

322
00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:38,520
Speaker 9: It is on.

323
00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:41,760
Speaker 2: There's no turning back, and you're mobilized at World headquarters

324
00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:44,680
Speaker 2: in New York until we have a race call. More

325
00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:47,240
Speaker 2: and more people joining us in the last week or so,

326
00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:50,560
Speaker 2: I'd say, Kayley, suggesting exactly what Lara Brown just said,

327
00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:52,840
Speaker 2: that it's not going to be next weekend or weeks,

328
00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:54,040
Speaker 2: It's going to be a couple of days.

329
00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:55,960
Speaker 3: Well, I think we're all holding out hope for that,

330
00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:57,680
Speaker 3: keeping in mind that we are no longer in a

331
00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:01,560
Speaker 3: pandemic as we were in twenty twenty, so voting may

332
00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:03,400
Speaker 3: not be as prevalent as it once was, and some

333
00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:05,919
Speaker 3: of these states have had important rules changes to make

334
00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:06,640
Speaker 3: this thing go fast.

335
00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:10,600
Speaker 2: Seventy seven million Americans voting. Our signature panel is with

336
00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:12,399
Speaker 2: us here in New York as well. Rick Davis and

337
00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:14,399
Speaker 2: Genie Shanzano are on the way next. So the fastest

338
00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:17,400
Speaker 2: show in politics this is Balance of Power on Bloomberg

339
00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:20,760
Speaker 2: TV and radio.

340
00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:24,840
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

341
00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:27,879
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and.

342
00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:30,040
Speaker 5: Enroid Oro with the Bloomberg Business App.

343
00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:32,959
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

344
00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:38,080
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

345
00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:41,280
Speaker 3: It is worth pointing out a lot of Americans have

346
00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:43,480
Speaker 3: already made up their mind with more than half of

347
00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:46,720
Speaker 3: the electorate that voted in twenty twenty having already cast

348
00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:48,440
Speaker 3: their ballot in this twenty twenty four.

349
00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:51,320
Speaker 2: Let's remarkable number, more than seventy seven million. And by

350
00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:53,639
Speaker 2: the way, records seen in states in the opening days,

351
00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:57,000
Speaker 2: including North Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina, especially after the damage

352
00:17:57,080 --> 00:18:00,880
Speaker 2: left by Hurricane Helen, really confounding the experts who thought

353
00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:02,800
Speaker 2: this would be a different story that we would be telling.

354
00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:04,840
Speaker 9: Also confounding the experts. Anne Selzer.

355
00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:08,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, over the weekend, this poll out of Iowa is remarkable.

356
00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:11,240
Speaker 2: As we listened to her conversation earlier today on Bloomberg

357
00:18:11,359 --> 00:18:14,200
Speaker 2: Radio with Tom Keene, this of course is very important

358
00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:14,880
Speaker 2: poll that we tracked.

359
00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:16,359
Speaker 9: We talked about it a lot in the early states.

360
00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:17,160
Speaker 9: When we got to Iowa.

361
00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:20,679
Speaker 2: Of course, des Moines registered Mediacom. Iowa poll shows Kamala

362
00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:24,119
Speaker 2: Harris leapfrogging Donald Trump forty seven to forty four percent

363
00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:26,119
Speaker 2: in a state that nobody saw her winning.

364
00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:28,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, so it was fascinating to hear from an Seltzer

365
00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:31,639
Speaker 3: herself on this earlier. Here's a bit of that conversation.

366
00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:36,640
Speaker 13: It was a shock, believe you me, when I went

367
00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,639
Speaker 13: into the office after the first night of interviewing. No

368
00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:43,879
Speaker 13: one would expect that Kamala Harris would have leapfrogged over

369
00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:45,560
Speaker 13: Donald Trump into the lead.

370
00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:49,560
Speaker 14: We had seen her move in the September.

371
00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:52,520
Speaker 13: Poll from where we were measuring Joe Biden as the

372
00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:56,240
Speaker 13: nominee back in June, and this is really just a

373
00:18:56,280 --> 00:19:01,199
Speaker 13: continuation of that. She now leads by three points. I

374
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:03,480
Speaker 13: think I don't have that number right in front of me,

375
00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:05,639
Speaker 13: and you'd think I would have it in delled in

376
00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:10,560
Speaker 13: my brain exactly the point. Yeah, seventy seventy forty seven,

377
00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:11,760
Speaker 13: forty four.

378
00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:17,000
Speaker 15: Right, who, So what's driving this strength for vice president?

379
00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:20,679
Speaker 13: And it's a continuation of what we saw in September,

380
00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:25,080
Speaker 13: which is the difference between June and September. Were more people,

381
00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:28,840
Speaker 13: dramatically more people saying that they were likely to vote.

382
00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:32,000
Speaker 13: That measurement would be I'm going to definitely vote. If

383
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:36,400
Speaker 13: you just say probably, we don't count that, and that

384
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:41,280
Speaker 13: that increase accounted for Kamala Harris's bump. So less than

385
00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:47,879
Speaker 13: one percent of people went for Donald Trump when thirteen

386
00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:51,800
Speaker 13: percent went for Kamala Harris. And that was the difference

387
00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:54,920
Speaker 13: between June. It was an eighteen point gap in June.

388
00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:59,119
Speaker 13: A four point gap in September. That continues with our

389
00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:04,120
Speaker 13: October poll in that the demographics more likely than average

390
00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:06,879
Speaker 13: to say they will definitely vote or that they've already voted,

391
00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:13,800
Speaker 13: are strong Harris demographics. It's women, it's college educated, it's

392
00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,920
Speaker 13: younger people, it's older people as well.

393
00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:18,719
Speaker 14: It's the incidents of voting.

394
00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:21,000
Speaker 13: If your age sixty four and over is like ninety

395
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:24,280
Speaker 13: four percent, that's a really big number. And she does

396
00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:29,800
Speaker 13: very well with older Iowans. In fact, her she wins

397
00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:35,080
Speaker 13: by twenty points with Iowa women and just fourteen vote

398
00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:35,720
Speaker 13: for Trump.

399
00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:37,240
Speaker 14: The margin is fourteen for Trump.

400
00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:37,840
Speaker 5: If juring.

401
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:41,119
Speaker 13: One thing crystal clear about the importance of older people

402
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:46,840
Speaker 13: is older women. Her ratio of win in women age

403
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:48,000
Speaker 13: sixty five and over.

404
00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:52,000
Speaker 14: Is two to one. Interesting, that's a huge part of

405
00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:52,720
Speaker 14: her success.

406
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:57,879
Speaker 2: Ann Selzer, driving the conversation today on Bloomberg and joining

407
00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:00,680
Speaker 2: us now are signature of political pan Who else would

408
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:02,760
Speaker 2: you want to bore into the data? With Rick Davis,

409
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:06,720
Speaker 2: partner at Stone Court Capital, republican strategist, alongside Genie Shanzano,

410
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 2: political science professor at Iona University, Democratic Strategists. They're both

411
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:13,679
Speaker 2: with US at World Headquarters in New York Rick Anzelzer

412
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:19,040
Speaker 2: said something important, older women more likely to vote, moving

413
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 2: the numbers in this poll. A lot of people wanted

414
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:23,359
Speaker 2: to cast this as an outlier. How about you, Yeah, No,

415
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:25,200
Speaker 2: I believe in Anne Oracle.

416
00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:27,879
Speaker 16: I mean, she picked off Obama's win in two thousand

417
00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:30,520
Speaker 16: and eight. She was the only one who predicted Jony

418
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:32,080
Speaker 16: Ernz was going to be a senator. I mean, like,

419
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 16: she is used to sticking her neck out, and in

420
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:37,240
Speaker 16: this case, she's seen something that is really counterintuitive, because

421
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:39,520
Speaker 16: you know, basically the older you get, the more likely

422
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 16: it is you're going to vote Republican. And the Harris

423
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:46,399
Speaker 16: margins with white women under thirty or like forty percent,

424
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,320
Speaker 16: it's huge, but they always diminish as you go up.

425
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:53,960
Speaker 16: The movement she picked up was white women over sixty

426
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,919
Speaker 16: five were starting to move toward Kamala Harris, which is

427
00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 16: very unusual.

428
00:21:57,520 --> 00:21:59,120
Speaker 5: They're coming right out of the Trump.

429
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 16: Base, and if that continues, especially with non college educated

430
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:07,119
Speaker 16: white women, that could be a real foretelling.

431
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 9: But it's about the movement of those voters, not so much.

432
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 16: The ballot number doesn't necessarily mean Harris is gonna win Iowa,

433
00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:16,800
Speaker 16: but she is making up ground quickly. With Donald Trump

434
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:17,320
Speaker 16: in that state.

435
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 3: So if it's about momentum, when we just spent the

436
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:22,600
Speaker 3: last several weeks talking about what felt like stalled momentum

437
00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:25,440
Speaker 3: for Kamala Harrison, a race that was tightening, Genie, does

438
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:27,960
Speaker 3: this signal to you some kind of eleventh hour shift?

439
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:29,160
Speaker 11: It does?

440
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:29,480
Speaker 5: You know?

441
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 17: I think we forget that Iowa right next to Nebraska.

442
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 17: It's one of the ten states Nebraska that has abortion.

443
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 11: On the ballot.

444
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:41,600
Speaker 17: So arguably these citizens in Iowa are being inundated with

445
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:46,080
Speaker 17: that with those messages. Anne is also talking about in

446
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:49,439
Speaker 17: the congressional races out there where you see Democrats winning

447
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 17: by double digits on the back of abortion. So I

448
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,880
Speaker 17: think part of this election is coming down to who

449
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:59,000
Speaker 17: do you fear most. Do you fear Kamala Harris controlling

450
00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 17: the economy or Donald Trump controlling reproductive health? And given

451
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 17: his closing, which has arguably been undisciplined, is probably the

452
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 17: most generous way to say it. You may be seeing,

453
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:12,640
Speaker 17: or we may be seeing in these polls people who say,

454
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,359
Speaker 17: you know what, the damage he may do is going

455
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 17: to be more pronounced on abortion and liberty and freedom

456
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 17: than hers as it pertains to the economy, which, except

457
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:25,080
Speaker 17: for that twelve thousand jobs report on Friday, has been

458
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:28,119
Speaker 17: macro economically getting arguably better.

459
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,400
Speaker 9: What do we think about the undecideds at this point?

460
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 9: I mean, if you.

461
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 2: Haven't figured this out yet, I don't know where you're living.

462
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,440
Speaker 2: But the new Siena poll today, eleven percent of voters

463
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:39,240
Speaker 2: remain undecided at this time. Those who have been early

464
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:42,520
Speaker 2: voting are apparently breaking for Harris. The eight percent of

465
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 2: voters who said they had only recently decided on their vote,

466
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,359
Speaker 2: she carries by fifty five percent the Trump's forty four percent.

467
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:49,919
Speaker 9: What's happening behind the scenes right now?

468
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:50,160
Speaker 11: Yeah?

469
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,879
Speaker 16: Look, I mean you want momentum at the end of

470
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 16: the campaign.

471
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 9: Is that the definition the half the.

472
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 16: Voting age population is going to cast their ballot on

473
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 16: election day. Even though we've had this record voting, you've

474
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,199
Speaker 16: still got half as much to still go, and so

475
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,080
Speaker 16: you definitely want to be peaking at this point. The

476
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:11,119
Speaker 16: question is, because you've had such a large cohort already vote,

477
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 16: how much of that does she have to chisel away

478
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:17,720
Speaker 16: create bigger margins on election day. Bigger margins then typically

479
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:21,800
Speaker 16: happen for Democrats on election day. Typically election Day Republicans

480
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 16: ruler rust in this case, will she Well.

481
00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:26,639
Speaker 3: I guess that's our question. And when we look at

482
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 3: this early voting data coming in, and when we look

483
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,200
Speaker 3: at the early vote count in some of these states

484
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:33,720
Speaker 3: like North Carolina and Georgia, Joe and I've discussed this hour,

485
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,399
Speaker 3: more than four million people have already voted, eighty percent

486
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 3: of the electorate that voted in twenty twenty. To what

487
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:42,120
Speaker 3: extent does that signal higher turnout this time around potentially

488
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:46,400
Speaker 3: or is that showing the demographic changes this country has

489
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 3: experienced in the last four years since the last time

490
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:49,439
Speaker 3: we did this.

491
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:52,440
Speaker 17: Yeah, I will just tell you just in conversations with people,

492
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:55,680
Speaker 17: I am astonished by how many people I would say

493
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 17: eight out of ten people I talked to have voted already.

494
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:02,640
Speaker 17: I myself include, and so you know, it is astonishing.

495
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 17: That said, I'm hesitant to draw from the early vote

496
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 17: numbers as astonishing as they are, because at this point,

497
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 17: until tomorrow, we really don't know. Does that mean that

498
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 17: there's more people who are going to be getting out

499
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 17: or does that mean people are just getting out early.

500
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,440
Speaker 17: I don't think we know. And one thing I would

501
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 17: say about Trump and I think we need to be

502
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:28,360
Speaker 17: cautious about this is the registration for Republicans is up

503
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:31,400
Speaker 17: in many states, including some of these swing states from

504
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 17: twenty twenty Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada. So for all the sort

505
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,440
Speaker 17: of negative signs in the last twenty four to forty

506
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 17: eight hours for Donald Trump on the ground and elsewhere,

507
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 17: those registration numbers matter, and get back to this early vote,

508
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 17: and so I think we have to be really cautious

509
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 17: about drawing conclusions just based on.

510
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 9: That early vote down ballot.

511
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:54,639
Speaker 2: This poll finds some interesting effects, but all the Democratic

512
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,400
Speaker 2: candidates for senator outperforming Kamala Harris right now, when you're

513
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 2: going into an election with that kind of reverse coattails situation, Rick,

514
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 2: who does that help?

515
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 9: Well? It rarely helps the top of the ticket.

516
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:07,960
Speaker 16: You really see it more likely that if the top

517
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:09,880
Speaker 16: of the ticket is a runing strong, it can help.

518
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:14,640
Speaker 16: The coattails can help down ticket candidates. You rarely see

519
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 16: the top of the ticket the presidential candidate getting the

520
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 16: same level of support as legislative candidates or vice versa.

521
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:24,119
Speaker 16: Right is always going to be different, you know, people

522
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,120
Speaker 16: have different priorities when they go into the polling booths,

523
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:28,440
Speaker 16: whether it's their congressman and what they're trying to get

524
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 16: done in their community or where they see the direction

525
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,639
Speaker 16: of the country. The problem Kamala Harris has is she's

526
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 16: carrying the burden of an extremely unpopular administration and that

527
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:41,119
Speaker 16: suppresses the voters that she's going to get. So in

528
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:44,280
Speaker 16: order for her to win, she would be doing much better.

529
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 16: She was just getting the base Democratic vote, which she

530
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:48,960
Speaker 16: won't get. But it doesn't mean she can't be the

531
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:50,680
Speaker 16: elected president by November.

532
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:53,679
Speaker 3: By tomorrow, well, Genie, we just have a minute left here.

533
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 3: But when you consider this split ticket idea, is it

534
00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 3: more likely that all the states are going to go

535
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:00,119
Speaker 3: one way whoever whatever party wins the presidency also so

536
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:04,680
Speaker 3: gets the Senate, or that there will be some expectation

537
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 3: defying results.

538
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 5: Yeah.

539
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 17: I mean, historically we say that the House and the

540
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 17: White House moved together, and so I would normally say

541
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 17: they will go together and that the Republicans will take

542
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:17,400
Speaker 17: the Senate because the map looks so much better for them.

543
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 17: But every time I turn around, as we have here

544
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:23,000
Speaker 17: for a year and a half, this election has defied

545
00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:25,960
Speaker 17: all odds. So I'm hesitant to say, but I think

546
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:29,440
Speaker 17: at this point Republicans really look strong as it pertains

547
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 17: to the Senate, and that means divided government, and that

548
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:35,400
Speaker 17: means guess what, really really hard to get critical things

549
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:37,639
Speaker 17: done in this country, and we are back to square

550
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:39,400
Speaker 17: one where people are frustrated again.

551
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 3: All right, Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis, thank you so much,

552
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:44,119
Speaker 3: and we'll have more from our signature panel in the

553
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,479
Speaker 3: next hour of Balance of Power and of course throughout

554
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 3: the week.

555
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 1: If you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast,

556
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 1: catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Evocarplay.

557
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 5: And then Roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app.

558
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:03,160
Speaker 1: Man wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

559
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 1: on YouTube.

560
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 3: Joining us now from Massachusetts is a member of the

561
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:13,440
Speaker 3: House of Representatives. Democratic Congressman Jake Auchincloss is with us.

562
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 3: Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Congressman, Happy election eve.

563
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 3: It does feel like almost no one is willing to

564
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 3: say anything with conviction at this point. But how are

565
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:26,359
Speaker 3: you feeling about becoming a member of the majority.

566
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 18: Confident? I think Democrats are going to take back the House.

567
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:32,200
Speaker 18: I don't think it's.

568
00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 19: Going to be a blowout.

569
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 18: Neither party would claim that at this point because of

570
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 18: how polarized the country is right now. But I do

571
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 18: think that Republicans dysfunction in the one hundred and eighteenth Congress,

572
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 18: in which they had multiple rounds of infighting over their

573
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 18: speaker choice, in which they brought the country to the

574
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 18: verge of a debt default, in which they had to

575
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 18: be really bullied into funding our allies. I think is

576
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 18: going to speak to the swing voter in those two

577
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 18: seats that are going to decide the majority, and it's

578
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 18: going to give Hakeem Jeffries the gabble.

579
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:06,240
Speaker 9: What do you make of the conventional wisdom in Washington?

580
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 2: And we've been hearing this for months and months, Congressman,

581
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 2: that the House turns Democratic and the Senate turns Republican.

582
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 2: As we talked to the investment community here every day

583
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg, there's the old Wall Street saying gridlock is good,

584
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 2: and there does seem to be a preference to have

585
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 2: a split Congress regardless of who wins the White House.

586
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 9: How would you respond to those people?

587
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:33,800
Speaker 18: I think those individuals are under indexing to how deranged

588
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 18: a second term of Donald Trump would be. Too many

589
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 18: individuals are assuming that the same antibodies and the buddy

590
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 18: politic would be there and the second term as we're

591
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 18: there in the first term.

592
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 19: But those antibodies have been depleted.

593
00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:52,080
Speaker 18: The Republican Party is full on MAGA and unfortunately, we

594
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 18: have seen the Supreme Court with its official immunity ruling.

595
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 18: We have seen the state parties all supplicate themselves to

596
00:29:57,720 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 18: his whims. And those individuals who are in the w

597
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,480
Speaker 18: House in term one, people like Jim Mattis, people like

598
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:06,520
Speaker 18: John Kelly, even someone like John Bolton, they're not going

599
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 18: to be invited back to term two.

600
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 19: It's going to be Trump and his two.

601
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 18: Sons making decisions that are in the interests of their

602
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 18: own businesses and of their own family fiefdom, not in

603
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 18: the interests of the rule of law or the American people.

604
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 18: And I think too few on Wall Street are understanding

605
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 18: how bad for their business the degradation of the rule

606
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 18: of law will be.

607
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 3: But has Kamala Harris Congressman made enough of an argument

608
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:33,720
Speaker 3: that she wouldn't be bad for business, that she might

609
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 3: actually be good for it, Because the prevailing thinking on

610
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 3: Wall Street is Trump means lower taxes and higher profits.

611
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 18: Yeah, So, first of all, that's not true, because Donald

612
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 18: Trump wants to put in place tariffs that would cost

613
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 18: the average American family at least four thousand dollars a

614
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 18: year and would radically increase the cost of inputs for

615
00:30:55,520 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 18: most American businesses. Tariff is an anti growth economic agenda

616
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 18: in the way that he is describing it. Kamala Harris

617
00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:05,960
Speaker 18: and the Democratic Party wants to be driving towards an

618
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:08,240
Speaker 18: economy that works like legos, not monopoly.

619
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:09,959
Speaker 19: We want an economy that builds things.

620
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:12,320
Speaker 18: I'd like this to put forward an audacious agenda for

621
00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 18: ten million units of housing, a thousand nuclear power plants,

622
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 18: building more ships in the entire Chinese Navy, starting more

623
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 18: small businesses than the rest of the world combined. We

624
00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:24,520
Speaker 18: want to be an economy that builds things and does things,

625
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 18: not an.

626
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 19: Economy of middlemen.

627
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 18: And I think Wall Street, I think Main Street can

628
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 18: get behind that vision. Where Donald Trump is there to

629
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 18: cross off names on his enemies.

630
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 2: List, Congressman, more than seventy seven million Americans have already voted.

631
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:42,280
Speaker 9: How do you read into that number? What does it

632
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 9: mean for tomorrow night?

633
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 19: I don't read into that number at all.

634
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:49,680
Speaker 18: Actually, I think any prognostication based on the early voting

635
00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 18: is very subject to confirmation bias. The only takeaway I

636
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 18: have from that is that thankfully most Americans have ignored

637
00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:59,480
Speaker 18: Donald Trump's lies about early voting from twenty twenty, and

638
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 18: they have readied that our election system, when it's not

639
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 18: being interfered with by MAGA election deniers, is robust, is free,

640
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:08,000
Speaker 18: and is fair.

641
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:11,959
Speaker 3: Congressman, I'd like to ask you as well about what

642
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 3: we've heard from the current Speaker of the House within

643
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 3: the last week two suggestions about repealing legislation, at first

644
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:22,560
Speaker 3: the Affordable Care Act Obamacare, and then just days ago,

645
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 3: a suggestion that the Chips Act passed during this administration

646
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 3: would be repealed. He then clarified that he didn't understand

647
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:31,360
Speaker 3: the question he was asked. Instead, what he wants to

648
00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:34,280
Speaker 3: do is streamline the legislation. And I wonder if you

649
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 3: buy that clarification or if you really think that might

650
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 3: be on the agenda.

651
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 18: I think digging into specific policy details is missing the

652
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 18: forest for the trees, because the core agenda of the

653
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 18: House Republican Party is not actually any specific policy outcome

654
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 18: and healthcare and semiconductor manufacturing and education.

655
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 19: It's nihilistic.

656
00:32:56,880 --> 00:33:00,600
Speaker 18: Unfortunately, Speaker Johnson is subject to the win of about

657
00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 18: a dozen members of his conference who simply don't want

658
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 18: to govern at all. He's got a conference like the

659
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 18: Joker from the Dark Knight. They just want to watch

660
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 18: the world burn. And again, I think too many in

661
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 18: Wall Street are thinking, Oh, that means gridlock, and that

662
00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 18: means that there won't be any threats to our short.

663
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 19: Term business interests.

664
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 18: It's just a very myopic way of looking at Washington.

665
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 18: What they should be seeking are guardrails to protect the

666
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 18: rule of law and a positive governing philosophy that actually

667
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:34,320
Speaker 18: wants to build out the productive capability of our economy

668
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 18: rather than bringing us to the edge of a debt

669
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 18: default every single cycle.

670
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:40,960
Speaker 2: Haley mentioned taxes, and of course we're going to have,

671
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 2: no matter who wins, a grand debate about what to

672
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 2: do with the expiration of the Trump era tax cuts,

673
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 2: the twenty seventeen tax cuts. If it is Donald Trump.

674
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 2: What would a Democratic led House.

675
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 9: Do on that front?

676
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 2: Would to get out of the Ways and Means Committee?

677
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 2: How do you see that playing out? Because a decision

678
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 2: will need to be next year.

679
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 18: I'm not going to speak for Richie and Neal other

680
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 18: Ways and Means Committee. I will say that the first

681
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 18: order of business, should the worst happen and Donald Trump

682
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:11,080
Speaker 18: be elected, is going to be to protect the constitution

683
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:14,200
Speaker 18: of the United States, because he will not. Speaker Johnson

684
00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:17,360
Speaker 18: will not, Republicans in general will not. So before we

685
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:19,399
Speaker 18: even talk about taxes, we're going to be talking about

686
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:22,359
Speaker 18: the institutions of our democracy and how we safeguard them.

687
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:24,279
Speaker 19: But in general, we have.

688
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:27,760
Speaker 18: Seen some indications of where there is bipartisan consensus on taxes.

689
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:30,280
Speaker 18: I'll give you two examples. One is the child tax credit.

690
00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 18: You know Mitt Romney has put forward ideas. Obviously Democrats

691
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:36,080
Speaker 18: are galvanized behind making fully refundable and expanding the child

692
00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 18: tax credit that puts money directly in the pockets of

693
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:42,799
Speaker 18: working families. And then number two is fixing the R

694
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:45,880
Speaker 18: and D tax credit issue from the Trump Bill in

695
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 18: twenty seventeen and allowing businesses to amortize those R and

696
00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:51,040
Speaker 18: D tax credits over five years.

697
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 19: At least, that's a pro growth policy.

698
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:55,000
Speaker 18: I think both parties can get behind it, especially if

699
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:56,280
Speaker 18: pair with the child tax credit.

700
00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:00,239
Speaker 2: Harm's been Thank you for the time Jake Aukinkluss joining

701
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 2: us from his state of Massachusetts. It's good to see

702
00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:06,240
Speaker 2: you and welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio Kaylee

703
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 2: less than well, a little over, I should say. It's

704
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,240
Speaker 2: twenty four hours from now, polls will be closing.

705
00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 9: We're going to be looking at results here.

706
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:15,560
Speaker 2: This preamble that has been a year and a half

707
00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:16,719
Speaker 2: long is about to end.

708
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, which is wild to consider. In some ways, this

709
00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:22,799
Speaker 3: election feels like it has lasted for way longer than

710
00:35:23,000 --> 00:35:26,280
Speaker 3: a year and a half, given everything that has changed

711
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 3: over the course of the cycle, including the candidate at

712
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:30,840
Speaker 3: the top of the Democratic ticket. What was Joe Biden

713
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 3: just months ago? Now, of course Kamala Harris, who is

714
00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:36,239
Speaker 3: neck and neck with Donald Trump in many polls. And

715
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:39,399
Speaker 3: it's interesting as we consider how close the polls have been,

716
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 3: that has not been the case when you look at

717
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:44,280
Speaker 3: betting markets and how markets have been pricing this election.

718
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:46,480
Speaker 3: They're starting to come together a bit more today, and

719
00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:49,920
Speaker 3: maybe there is some rethinking of the odds of a

720
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:51,920
Speaker 3: Donald Trump victory on the eve.

721
00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:52,280
Speaker 11: Of this election.

722
00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:52,719
Speaker 9: Yeah.

723
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:55,439
Speaker 2: Of course, we've spent about a year with our own

724
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 2: poll in consultation and partnership with Morning consult This is

725
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:01,799
Speaker 2: in October two October exercise. We just had our last

726
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 2: drop and we're going to talk about the ground that

727
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 2: we have covered the longest campaign of our lives, followed

728
00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 2: by the shortest campaign of our lives in the case

729
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:12,400
Speaker 2: of Kamala Harris Elioakley. If morning consult will be with us,

730
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:14,840
Speaker 2: Kaylee will also sit down with mc mulvaney, the former

731
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 2: acting White House Chief of Staff of course in the

732
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:20,320
Speaker 2: Trump administration, who should have some interesting thoughts today.

733
00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm sure he will. And of course we'll also

734
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:24,960
Speaker 3: check in with our Bloomberg team that has scattered about

735
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:28,200
Speaker 3: the swing states, including what's going on on the ground

736
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:30,880
Speaker 3: in Georgia as well as Texas, where we're watching one

737
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:34,520
Speaker 3: of those critical Senate races. Yeah, and where abortion could

738
00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:36,799
Speaker 3: be a featured issue, as we've been discussing with our

739
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:39,759
Speaker 3: guests for this first hour of Balance of Power. But

740
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:41,799
Speaker 3: we have another hour to go on the other side

741
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 3: of this break, and of course many hours to go

742
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:46,839
Speaker 3: as we work through election week here, So stick with us.

743
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:49,719
Speaker 3: I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew live from New York

744
00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:50,839
Speaker 3: on Bloomberg TV.

745
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:51,720
Speaker 20: Entreaty.

746
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

747
00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:01,879
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at New Eastern on Appocarplay and then.

748
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 5: Royd Otto with the Bloomberg Business App.

749
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:06,719
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

750
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

751
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:15,799
Speaker 3: And as we consider the abortion issue in particular, Joe,

752
00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 3: this is one as we've had these conversations here on

753
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:22,320
Speaker 3: balance of power frequently throughout this cycle. To what extent

754
00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:25,920
Speaker 3: it may be a driver of turnout given with everything

755
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:28,600
Speaker 3: we have seen in special elections in the midterms since

756
00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:31,440
Speaker 3: the overturning of Roe v. Wade, it does tend to

757
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 3: be higher turnout votes and when abortion is on the

758
00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 3: ballot and drive more women in particular to the polls,

759
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:39,000
Speaker 3: and women, of course, a group that Kamala Harris has

760
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:41,560
Speaker 3: consistently pulled better on than Donald Trump.

761
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:43,000
Speaker 2: We've seen that born out in a number of states,

762
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 2: living Kansas. If you remember going through the midterms, the way.

763
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 9: This was impacting.

764
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:50,200
Speaker 2: It's kind of the unquantifiable issue. Though we are seeing

765
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 2: polling showing abortion right up there with the economy in

766
00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 2: some areas today.

767
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:57,479
Speaker 9: Siena New York Times pointed that out.

768
00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 2: But the An Salzer poll also makes us wonder that

769
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 2: is motivating women over sixty five in a state like Iowa.

770
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:05,440
Speaker 9: It's pretty remarkable to consider.

771
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, women overall in Iowa twenty percent more likely or

772
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:12,760
Speaker 3: twenty points more likely for Harris than for Donald Trump.

773
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:14,839
Speaker 3: So for more on the polling we are seeing in

774
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 3: this final stage of the race. Joining us is Eli

775
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:20,400
Speaker 3: Yoakley for Morning Consult, where he is US politics analysts.

776
00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 3: We of course have been working with Eli and the

777
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 3: Morning Consult team here at Bloomberg for a year on

778
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:28,000
Speaker 3: our swing state poll that just came to a conclusion

779
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:30,960
Speaker 3: last month. Eli, welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio.

780
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 3: Obviously a lot of people are looking at that Iowa

781
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 3: poll as an outlier, But is there something revealing in

782
00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 3: the Iowa poll that you're also seeing in your own data.

783
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:41,520
Speaker 20: Yeah.

784
00:38:41,560 --> 00:38:45,000
Speaker 21: I mean this is a close contest nationally and in

785
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:49,319
Speaker 21: these key states. I think the point that we saw

786
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:53,400
Speaker 21: in Iowa about women and older voters proofs true. Kamala

787
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 21: Harris is doing well with both of those groups nationally.

788
00:38:57,360 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 21: Donald Trump's doing a little bit better with men. We'll

789
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:04,000
Speaker 21: see how this bears out. I think that a lot

790
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 21: of people find it hard to believe that Kamala Harris

791
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:10,800
Speaker 21: would be able to pull off a victory in Iowa,

792
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 21: but even movement against Trump there could suggest some negativity

793
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:20,640
Speaker 21: for his campaign and other states around there. Think about

794
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 21: places like Wisconsin that are very white as well. Abortions

795
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:28,680
Speaker 21: a big deal there. But we shouldn't forget that Trump's

796
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:35,360
Speaker 21: also been campaigning on raising terraffs on other countries. That

797
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:40,359
Speaker 21: would probably spark some retaliatory efforts by other countries. That's

798
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:43,120
Speaker 21: something that would really weigh on farmers, be it when

799
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:45,239
Speaker 21: they go to buy a tractor or when they go

800
00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:48,960
Speaker 21: to sell their goods. That might be weighing on people

801
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 21: there just as much as some of these other issues.

802
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:54,319
Speaker 2: So what are the chances eli you'd do this for

803
00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 2: a living? This has been quite an experience for polsters

804
00:39:57,680 --> 00:40:01,280
Speaker 2: over the past year. Were struck by the concer assistency

805
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:04,240
Speaker 2: in your polling that has found this essentially a tide

806
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 2: race ever since Kamala Harris got to the top of

807
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:10,959
Speaker 2: the ticket. If we're too close to call right now,

808
00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:13,839
Speaker 2: likely something's going to break in one direction or the other.

809
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:15,799
Speaker 9: Will there be a reckoning either way?

810
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:18,440
Speaker 2: For the polling industry, for the way you look at

811
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 2: the sample, for the people you're contacting.

812
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:25,319
Speaker 20: Following Tuesday night, there's always a reckoning. We always get

813
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 20: these questions after after elections.

814
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 21: You know, I think one of the big things that

815
00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 21: we are going to be looking at after the election

816
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 21: is this debate over weighing by pass boat choice. A

817
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 21: lot of posters do, A lot of posters don't ANCELSR.

818
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:43,719
Speaker 21: I don't think does, for example in Iowa. Those kinds

819
00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:46,279
Speaker 21: of questions I think are going to be asked by

820
00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:47,280
Speaker 21: the industry.

821
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:50,200
Speaker 20: But hold your breath a little. Don't hold your breath

822
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:51,000
Speaker 20: on this.

823
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 21: It's going to take a while to do a full

824
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 21: accounting here after the election. It takes a while for

825
00:40:56,239 --> 00:41:00,480
Speaker 21: all these states to get their ballots counted and to

826
00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 21: start doing those kinds of analysis. But you know, look,

827
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:07,720
Speaker 21: a lot of the numbers are in line across the map.

828
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:12,280
Speaker 21: Every poster I think is finding a close selection nationally

829
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:14,600
Speaker 21: and then a lot of these key states. The differences

830
00:41:14,600 --> 00:41:19,000
Speaker 21: are pretty marginal right now. That is what leads us

831
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 21: all to say this is we're going to be a

832
00:41:20,640 --> 00:41:21,600
Speaker 21: pretty close selection.

833
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:24,840
Speaker 20: But I guess we'll find out tomorrow well.

834
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 3: Or the next day or the day after that, depending

835
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:29,000
Speaker 3: on how long it takes to actually tally all of

836
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:31,280
Speaker 3: this up. If it's as tight as all the polls

837
00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:35,720
Speaker 3: suggest it could take some time to actually count every vote.

838
00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 15: Eli.

839
00:41:36,400 --> 00:41:38,839
Speaker 3: As we consider that, though, with the amount of early

840
00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:41,040
Speaker 3: voting we have already seen, do you have any sense

841
00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:44,520
Speaker 3: of ultimately what that is telling us about what turnout

842
00:41:44,560 --> 00:41:47,000
Speaker 3: is likely to be. How many votes will there be

843
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:49,279
Speaker 3: to be counted that we're going to have to work

844
00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:51,520
Speaker 3: our way through in the hours after poll closing.

845
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 20: Yeah.

846
00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:55,240
Speaker 21: For example, in North Carolina, it's I think over half

847
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:59,360
Speaker 21: right now of the state's registered voter population has cast

848
00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:03,280
Speaker 21: balance and by the way, it's higher in those places

849
00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:06,320
Speaker 21: that got struck by the hurricanes earlier this year.

850
00:42:07,200 --> 00:42:09,439
Speaker 20: I think it's somewhat hard to parse out.

851
00:42:09,560 --> 00:42:12,600
Speaker 21: I think the early voting and the mail voting rules

852
00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 21: have changed in twenty twenty was obviously a strange year

853
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:19,960
Speaker 21: for how this works. I think maybe the selection will

854
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:23,400
Speaker 21: be a better benchmark looking ahead at what you can

855
00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:26,879
Speaker 21: extrapolate from those. But what we've noticed this in our

856
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:30,000
Speaker 21: data we've been collecting nationally is sort of a mode

857
00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:32,239
Speaker 21: difference in terms of how you cast your ballot might

858
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 21: be more predictive of who you're backing. I mean, early

859
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:39,280
Speaker 21: in person voters are more likely to be supporting Donald

860
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:42,520
Speaker 21: Trump those casting their ballots by mail are more likely

861
00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 21: to be supporting Kamala Harris. I think that Trump might

862
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:49,720
Speaker 21: have a bit of an advantage on election day votes,

863
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:54,719
Speaker 21: and so that might add some time as these as

864
00:42:54,719 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 21: we're trying to find results, just as some of these

865
00:42:57,239 --> 00:43:00,480
Speaker 21: states are counting those mail in ballots that maybe more

866
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:02,320
Speaker 21: likely to be favoring Kamala Harris.

867
00:43:02,600 --> 00:43:04,840
Speaker 2: So ela help us rationalize some of the numbers that

868
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:08,960
Speaker 2: we're seeing here. On election Eve, New York Times CNAs says,

869
00:43:09,120 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 2: among the eight percent of voters who said they had

870
00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:14,879
Speaker 2: only recently decided their vote, I can't imagine what took

871
00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:19,400
Speaker 2: so long. Harris wins fifty five percent to forty four percent.

872
00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:23,160
Speaker 2: We have eleven percent voters remaining undecided. But when you

873
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 2: look at the big election models here, five point thirty

874
00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 2: eight has odds favoring Donald Trump fifty three to forty seven.

875
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 2: Nate Silver has something close to that, fifty one percent

876
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:35,200
Speaker 2: odds for a Trump win, The Hill odds of a

877
00:43:35,200 --> 00:43:37,960
Speaker 2: Trump win fifty four percent. The economist has it as

878
00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:41,000
Speaker 2: a coin flip. Why should the Harris administration be projecting

879
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:42,640
Speaker 2: optimism when you have numbers like these?

880
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 20: No, I mean it's going to come down to who votes,

881
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:48,719
Speaker 20: and the Harris campaign.

882
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:51,360
Speaker 21: Had a big weekend and knocking on thousands and thousands

883
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 21: and thousands of doors in Pennsylvania. They've got a strong

884
00:43:54,239 --> 00:43:57,520
Speaker 21: field operation that means they're talking to people. A lot

885
00:43:57,520 --> 00:44:01,160
Speaker 21: of that operation has been exported by the Trump campaign

886
00:44:01,200 --> 00:44:05,480
Speaker 21: to other Republican actors. So the Harris campaign's optimism might

887
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:09,240
Speaker 21: be coming from what they're hearing on the ground from voters.

888
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:12,840
Speaker 21: Late breakers have had a chance to listen to a

889
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:16,640
Speaker 21: bit of an unfettered Donald Trump as he's become more

890
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:20,160
Speaker 21: trumpy and less restrained.

891
00:44:19,880 --> 00:44:21,200
Speaker 20: In recent weeks.

892
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 21: The kinds of information voters have been taking away about

893
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 21: Kamala Harris, by the way, it continues to be overwhelmingly positive,

894
00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:30,360
Speaker 21: as it has throughout her campaign.

895
00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:32,600
Speaker 20: The vibes are on her side.

896
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:36,400
Speaker 21: The question is just going to be who's casting ballots

897
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:38,880
Speaker 21: in all these very very very closet contests.

898
00:44:39,320 --> 00:44:41,560
Speaker 3: Well, and we know that by and large, the vibes

899
00:44:41,600 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 3: among women are on Kamala Harris side. That doesn't remain

900
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:46,960
Speaker 3: the case though with men and young men in particular

901
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:49,759
Speaker 3: ELI who do tend to be lower propensity voters. Are

902
00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:52,200
Speaker 3: we seeing signs though that they may actually be willing

903
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:54,560
Speaker 3: to show up in a way they haven't in past

904
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 3: cycles this time around.

905
00:44:56,640 --> 00:44:59,000
Speaker 20: Yeah, I think we're seeing energy among young people.

906
00:44:59,040 --> 00:44:59,440
Speaker 5: I think the.

907
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 20: Challenge here is Kamala Harris's.

908
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:06,160
Speaker 21: Numbers among young voters are just less than Joe Biden's

909
00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:10,920
Speaker 21: were four years ago, and that is consistent nationally.

910
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 20: It's a five point decline, I think.

911
00:45:14,160 --> 00:45:17,640
Speaker 21: And then in some of these key states, the margins

912
00:45:17,640 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 21: we're picking up in our final surveys in Arizona in

913
00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:25,280
Speaker 21: Wisconsin are just far worse for a Democratic candidate among

914
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 21: young people than you to expect that to be.

915
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:29,160
Speaker 20: I don't know that they're.

916
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:33,359
Speaker 21: Turning anti Democratic part party entirely, but you know, we've

917
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:37,799
Speaker 21: been picking up on an ideological shift among young voters for.

918
00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:38,799
Speaker 20: A few years now.

919
00:45:38,960 --> 00:45:42,239
Speaker 21: They're not more likely to say they're liberal, but they

920
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 21: are more likely to say they're moderate, and so that

921
00:45:45,600 --> 00:45:48,359
Speaker 21: might be working in republicans favor in the long run.

922
00:45:49,120 --> 00:45:52,239
Speaker 2: I'd love to know what your expectation is eli on

923
00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:55,279
Speaker 2: when we get a race call, at least for the

924
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:56,920
Speaker 2: top of the ticket. I know the house might be

925
00:45:56,960 --> 00:45:58,759
Speaker 2: a little bit more complicated, but are you going to

926
00:45:58,800 --> 00:46:01,680
Speaker 2: bed tomorrow night waking up to fight out on Wednesday?

927
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:03,560
Speaker 9: Or you're staying up because we might know.

928
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:08,080
Speaker 20: I'll go to bed. I bet it's I bet it's closest.

929
00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:10,719
Speaker 21: I'm gonna be on Bloomberg on Wednesday morning.

930
00:46:11,520 --> 00:46:12,520
Speaker 20: I bet it's Thursday.

931
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:16,479
Speaker 21: I think that it'll happen this week a little sooner

932
00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:18,520
Speaker 21: than it did back in twenty twenty.

933
00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 20: That's my only prediction I would have made on your

934
00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:21,280
Speaker 20: air waves today.

935
00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:25,040
Speaker 9: So that's on FED day, Kayley, Yeah, wouldn't that be

936
00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 9: something when that happens at the same time.

937
00:46:26,920 --> 00:46:27,680
Speaker 3: That's a good question.

938
00:46:27,719 --> 00:46:28,760
Speaker 11: We should talk to management.

939
00:46:28,800 --> 00:46:31,360
Speaker 3: It's going to be a big day, a FED decision,

940
00:46:31,480 --> 00:46:33,400
Speaker 3: likely a twenty five basis point rate cut, and then

941
00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:36,040
Speaker 3: potentially a call if Eli Oakley is to be believe,

942
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:39,399
Speaker 3: Politics Analyst, US Politics analyst at Morning Console Things, Eli

943
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 3: as always thanks you.

944
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:47,120
Speaker 1: If you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast,

945
00:46:47,440 --> 00:46:49,680
Speaker 1: catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern I.

946
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:51,640
Speaker 5: Have on car Play and then Roud Otto with the

947
00:46:51,640 --> 00:46:52,880
Speaker 5: Bloomberg Business app.

948
00:46:52,960 --> 00:46:56,080
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

949
00:46:56,200 --> 00:46:59,520
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

950
00:47:00,160 --> 00:47:03,279
Speaker 2: The more of the Trump campaign's closing arguments and Republicans'

951
00:47:03,360 --> 00:47:07,359
Speaker 2: chances of keeping control of the House. We're joined by

952
00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:09,920
Speaker 2: someone who has worked on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.

953
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:13,040
Speaker 2: Former acting White House Chief of Staff, co founder of

954
00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:15,759
Speaker 2: the House Freedom Caucus, Mick mulvaney. He's with us from

955
00:47:15,760 --> 00:47:18,000
Speaker 2: the Nation's capital, and Mick, it's great to see you.

956
00:47:18,040 --> 00:47:19,080
Speaker 9: I wonder how you would.

957
00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:22,640
Speaker 2: Describe Donald Trump's closing arguments here. You saw that headline

958
00:47:22,640 --> 00:47:25,959
Speaker 2: in the New York Times, dark and dour tones. Trump

959
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:28,399
Speaker 2: says he shouldn't have left the White House. He said

960
00:47:28,400 --> 00:47:30,439
Speaker 2: as well in that same event, he doesn't mind if

961
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:34,239
Speaker 2: reporters are shot at. This is the noise, Mick. Some

962
00:47:34,280 --> 00:47:37,560
Speaker 2: people are offended by it, understandably. What's the part that

963
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:39,880
Speaker 2: counts though for voters trying to make up their minds?

964
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:42,000
Speaker 11: Uh, not much.

965
00:47:42,040 --> 00:47:44,000
Speaker 15: I mean, if you haven't made up your mind right now,

966
00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:46,120
Speaker 15: then you're not going to make up your mind.

967
00:47:46,120 --> 00:47:48,200
Speaker 11: There was an interesting op ed in the Wall Street.

968
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,800
Speaker 15: Journal this week and that said, look, if you're still undecided,

969
00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:52,759
Speaker 15: please don't vote, because it just means you're not able

970
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:55,160
Speaker 15: to make a decision. Don't cancel the decision of somebody

971
00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:58,600
Speaker 15: who can actually think this through. I don't put much

972
00:47:59,320 --> 00:48:02,640
Speaker 15: weight on c arguments. I've seen the narrative Joe against

973
00:48:02,680 --> 00:48:05,239
Speaker 15: Donald Trump. Then I go I see the headlines that

974
00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:07,320
Speaker 15: I go actually watch the videos and the headlines and

975
00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:08,239
Speaker 15: the videos don't match.

976
00:48:08,320 --> 00:48:10,799
Speaker 9: You don't think it's fair, it's I.

977
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:11,760
Speaker 11: Don't think it's been accurate.

978
00:48:11,760 --> 00:48:14,080
Speaker 15: I really don't look how I describe it to people.

979
00:48:14,160 --> 00:48:17,840
Speaker 15: If there was a sort of concerted anti Trump media

980
00:48:17,880 --> 00:48:20,279
Speaker 15: effort over the course of the last two weeks, it

981
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:22,960
Speaker 15: would look just like this. I have no evidence that

982
00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:25,799
Speaker 15: it is. I have nothing but circumstantial evidence. But face it,

983
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:28,720
Speaker 15: the headlines have been pretty horrible against him. He didn't

984
00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:31,080
Speaker 15: say he wanted to shoot Liz Cheney or put in

985
00:48:31,120 --> 00:48:33,480
Speaker 15: front of a firing squad. He didn't say he wanted

986
00:48:33,520 --> 00:48:35,919
Speaker 15: to physically hit Michelle Obama, which is the story that's

987
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:37,680
Speaker 15: going out today. I get it, But look, I don't

988
00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:41,040
Speaker 15: think it makes any difference because there aren't any undecided

989
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:44,000
Speaker 15: voters left. I think it's just a question of whether

990
00:48:44,080 --> 00:48:45,799
Speaker 15: or not the people who know how they want to

991
00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:48,600
Speaker 15: vote are going to show up and vote. And that's

992
00:48:48,640 --> 00:48:52,080
Speaker 15: why you're seeing this last minute run into Pennsylvania.

993
00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:54,320
Speaker 11: Run into Michigan from all the campaigns.

994
00:48:54,080 --> 00:48:56,440
Speaker 15: Because they know that's where the election is going to

995
00:48:56,440 --> 00:48:57,360
Speaker 15: be won and lost.

996
00:48:57,600 --> 00:49:00,200
Speaker 3: Well, there may not be many undecided voters left to me,

997
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:03,400
Speaker 3: but there are recently decided voters, if you believe the

998
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:05,200
Speaker 3: New York Times in Siana pole that looked at the

999
00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:08,120
Speaker 3: battleground states, and it found that the eight percent of

1000
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:10,160
Speaker 3: voters that said they had only just made up their

1001
00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:13,640
Speaker 3: minds pulled for Harris by a margin of eleven points

1002
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:17,440
Speaker 3: fifty five to forty four percent for Trump. Do you

1003
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:17,880
Speaker 3: believe that?

1004
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:20,880
Speaker 11: You know, I'd have to see that. I'd have to

1005
00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:22,520
Speaker 11: see the actual polling to see.

1006
00:49:22,560 --> 00:49:24,560
Speaker 15: Do I think that there might be a bias against

1007
00:49:24,560 --> 00:49:25,960
Speaker 15: Trump at a New York Times poll?

1008
00:49:26,239 --> 00:49:26,799
Speaker 11: Yes, I do.

1009
00:49:27,680 --> 00:49:30,640
Speaker 15: But look, if they're right, then the election will be

1010
00:49:30,640 --> 00:49:31,600
Speaker 15: over on election evening.

1011
00:49:31,680 --> 00:49:31,759
Speaker 7: Right.

1012
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:34,520
Speaker 15: If it's that much of a break from the undecided

1013
00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:36,839
Speaker 15: to kamal ayers, then you'll know by ten o'clock that

1014
00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:39,239
Speaker 15: night as to whether or not she had won. So

1015
00:49:39,280 --> 00:49:41,239
Speaker 15: the proof will be in the pudding. I just hope

1016
00:49:41,280 --> 00:49:43,319
Speaker 15: that if he does win, and I still think this

1017
00:49:43,400 --> 00:49:46,000
Speaker 15: is a coin toss election, there'll be some real scrutiny

1018
00:49:46,040 --> 00:49:48,719
Speaker 15: given to these this this media coverage in the last

1019
00:49:48,760 --> 00:49:52,160
Speaker 15: couple of weeks, because clearly it has been heavily anti Trump.

1020
00:49:52,200 --> 00:49:54,040
Speaker 2: We have spent a lot of time with Don Levy,

1021
00:49:54,040 --> 00:49:57,400
Speaker 2: who runs the Siena College survey operation that feeds the

1022
00:49:57,440 --> 00:49:59,920
Speaker 2: New York Times poll about his methodology, and he's pretty

1023
00:50:00,040 --> 00:50:03,200
Speaker 2: serious polster for what it's worth, Mick. But I wonder,

1024
00:50:03,360 --> 00:50:06,799
Speaker 2: just broadly, is there a reckoning for polsters coming out

1025
00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:08,239
Speaker 2: of this election that's going to have to break one

1026
00:50:08,239 --> 00:50:09,320
Speaker 2: way or the other here, isn't.

1027
00:50:09,120 --> 00:50:11,040
Speaker 11: It it is?

1028
00:50:11,080 --> 00:50:12,719
Speaker 15: I mean, look, they've been und a great deal of

1029
00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:18,400
Speaker 15: pressure since twenty sixteen. They underpolled Polsters underpolled Barack Obama

1030
00:50:18,480 --> 00:50:21,239
Speaker 15: twenty twelve. They underpolled Trump in sixteen and twenty. Are

1031
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 15: they under polling both of them today?

1032
00:50:23,520 --> 00:50:25,920
Speaker 11: You don't know. But is a specific example.

1033
00:50:25,960 --> 00:50:27,600
Speaker 15: You look at the Iowa poll that got a lot

1034
00:50:27,600 --> 00:50:30,240
Speaker 15: of attention over the weekend. Oh my goodness, they're tied

1035
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:34,560
Speaker 15: in Iowa. Nine percent undecided in the weekend before it

1036
00:50:34,600 --> 00:50:36,759
Speaker 15: was forty seven to forty four last time I checked

1037
00:50:36,760 --> 00:50:39,000
Speaker 15: the math. That only adds up to ninety one percent,

1038
00:50:39,280 --> 00:50:41,839
Speaker 15: which means that nine percent in this in Iowa are

1039
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:45,160
Speaker 15: supposedly undecided in the weekend of the election. That would

1040
00:50:45,160 --> 00:50:47,600
Speaker 15: be a national news story in and of itself if

1041
00:50:47,640 --> 00:50:51,000
Speaker 15: there were really that many undecided voters. So but look, look,

1042
00:50:51,040 --> 00:50:53,919
Speaker 15: politicians like me complain about polls all the time. Every

1043
00:50:53,920 --> 00:50:55,919
Speaker 15: time we're winning, we love the polls. Every time we're losing,

1044
00:50:56,000 --> 00:50:59,400
Speaker 15: we hate the polls. The proof is obviously going to

1045
00:50:59,400 --> 00:51:02,200
Speaker 15: be in the pudding. But let's be honest with each other.

1046
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 15: Polling industry is at a difficult time properly pulling Donald

1047
00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:09,120
Speaker 15: Trump several times over, and they may be having difficulty

1048
00:51:09,200 --> 00:51:12,160
Speaker 15: pulling Kamala Harris, Kamala Harris right now as well.

1049
00:51:12,239 --> 00:51:15,080
Speaker 11: We'll know in about what forty eight hours.

1050
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:18,560
Speaker 3: Well, we'll see if that's true, Mick. We're all bracing

1051
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:21,759
Speaker 3: ourselves for the potential for a long haul vote tally here.

1052
00:51:21,800 --> 00:51:24,760
Speaker 3: But as we consider the fact that Donald Trump himself

1053
00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:26,440
Speaker 3: has thrown a lot of cold water on some of

1054
00:51:26,480 --> 00:51:28,920
Speaker 3: the polls that he is seeing suggestions in these final

1055
00:51:28,960 --> 00:51:31,440
Speaker 3: stages of the race that he actually thinks he's winning

1056
00:51:32,080 --> 00:51:34,680
Speaker 3: by a lot, I wonder if you take that for bluster,

1057
00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:37,120
Speaker 3: or if that may already be sowing the seeds of

1058
00:51:37,160 --> 00:51:40,520
Speaker 3: a contestation of the ultimate results when they come in.

1059
00:51:42,160 --> 00:51:44,120
Speaker 15: Yeah, I mean, if you didn't have twenty twenty as

1060
00:51:44,160 --> 00:51:46,479
Speaker 15: a data point, you look at it and call it bluster, right,

1061
00:51:46,520 --> 00:51:48,960
Speaker 15: But how can you look at it like that, after

1062
00:51:49,000 --> 00:51:51,799
Speaker 15: we've got twenty twenty, is he laying the foundation for

1063
00:51:52,120 --> 00:51:53,480
Speaker 15: challenge and the outcome of the elections?

1064
00:51:53,480 --> 00:51:55,239
Speaker 11: By the way, I don't have a difficulty.

1065
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:57,759
Speaker 15: Tyler did a nice piece on the lead and about

1066
00:51:57,760 --> 00:52:00,239
Speaker 15: the number of lawsuits. I know, difficulty with lawsuits. I'm

1067
00:52:00,320 --> 00:52:04,360
Speaker 15: fine with lawsuits. Lawsuits are part of the American electoral process.

1068
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:04,960
Speaker 11: They just are.

1069
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:07,560
Speaker 15: There's a reason there are people in this world, in

1070
00:52:07,560 --> 00:52:09,439
Speaker 15: this country who specialize in election law.

1071
00:52:09,480 --> 00:52:10,840
Speaker 11: We do this all of the time.

1072
00:52:11,239 --> 00:52:13,400
Speaker 15: And the more lawsuits you have, the more confidence you

1073
00:52:13,440 --> 00:52:16,359
Speaker 15: could have that the outcome is correct. You don't get

1074
00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:17,880
Speaker 15: to sit back and go, oh, it was stolen from me,

1075
00:52:17,920 --> 00:52:20,600
Speaker 15: and not present evidence, to present evidence as you win,

1076
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:23,240
Speaker 15: as the Trump campaign has done a couple times already

1077
00:52:23,239 --> 00:52:25,560
Speaker 15: in Pennsylvania, and you lose as they did I think

1078
00:52:25,600 --> 00:52:28,520
Speaker 15: pretty much every time in twenty twenty. So to your point,

1079
00:52:28,600 --> 00:52:31,439
Speaker 15: you know, is he's laying a foundation Ordinarily in an

1080
00:52:31,440 --> 00:52:34,280
Speaker 15: inter rational world, I'd say no, But with a twenty

1081
00:52:34,320 --> 00:52:37,160
Speaker 15: twenty in hindsight and say, yeah, he's probably laying a

1082
00:52:37,160 --> 00:52:39,480
Speaker 15: foundation now for challenging the outcome in some fashion.

1083
00:52:39,560 --> 00:52:43,080
Speaker 2: Well, with that said, I know you're sensitive to the markets, Nick,

1084
00:52:43,120 --> 00:52:45,319
Speaker 2: when you've got your eyes on Wall Street here and

1085
00:52:45,360 --> 00:52:49,040
Speaker 2: what might follow Tuesday night, what's your thought on how

1086
00:52:49,080 --> 00:52:50,960
Speaker 2: long it's going to take to call this race and

1087
00:52:51,000 --> 00:52:53,360
Speaker 2: the volatility that we could experience. A lot of investors

1088
00:52:53,400 --> 00:52:56,239
Speaker 2: are hedging themselves for both outcomes right now.

1089
00:52:57,320 --> 00:52:58,719
Speaker 11: Yeah, I saw the VIX number.

1090
00:52:58,760 --> 00:53:01,040
Speaker 15: That doesn't surprise met it when you got short, give

1091
00:53:01,080 --> 00:53:03,879
Speaker 15: short shrift to the Russell. So because it's doing really

1092
00:53:03,880 --> 00:53:06,640
Speaker 15: well today, don't forget the.

1093
00:53:06,640 --> 00:53:09,160
Speaker 9: Smart Let's go im give it to us, Mick.

1094
00:53:10,160 --> 00:53:14,439
Speaker 11: That's exactly right. Look, I think it could take a while.

1095
00:53:14,640 --> 00:53:14,920
Speaker 11: I have to.

1096
00:53:15,000 --> 00:53:17,359
Speaker 15: I'm giving some speeches next week in Europe, and they're like, look,

1097
00:53:17,360 --> 00:53:18,800
Speaker 15: we want to talk about the outcome of the election.

1098
00:53:18,880 --> 00:53:20,759
Speaker 15: I'm like, you know, there's a really good chance we

1099
00:53:20,840 --> 00:53:22,759
Speaker 15: won't know the outcome of the election next but I

1100
00:53:22,800 --> 00:53:25,680
Speaker 15: know that's what everybody's saying. Let me focus on one

1101
00:53:25,680 --> 00:53:27,879
Speaker 15: thing that not enough is not getting enough attention, I think,

1102
00:53:27,880 --> 00:53:31,040
Speaker 15: which is that the House of Representatives may take the

1103
00:53:31,120 --> 00:53:33,520
Speaker 15: longest to settle. I think the Senate you'll know on

1104
00:53:33,600 --> 00:53:36,600
Speaker 15: election night. The White House you might know late into

1105
00:53:36,640 --> 00:53:39,319
Speaker 15: the morning, maybe a day or two later. Arizona's going

1106
00:53:39,360 --> 00:53:41,840
Speaker 15: to take a long time to finish. If it's that close,

1107
00:53:41,880 --> 00:53:43,239
Speaker 15: it could take a week or so.

1108
00:53:43,719 --> 00:53:44,720
Speaker 11: But the House races.

1109
00:53:44,800 --> 00:53:50,760
Speaker 15: California is notoriously slow in reporting final results from House races.

1110
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:53,680
Speaker 15: I remember twenty ten when I got elected. I was

1111
00:53:53,719 --> 00:53:57,480
Speaker 15: having dinners here in January of twenty and eleven with

1112
00:53:57,520 --> 00:53:59,640
Speaker 15: people who didn't know if they were staying or not.

1113
00:54:00,239 --> 00:54:03,640
Speaker 15: So I think the House race could take a lot longer,

1114
00:54:03,800 --> 00:54:05,960
Speaker 15: and that affects the markets almost as much as the

1115
00:54:05,960 --> 00:54:08,560
Speaker 15: White House, because we'll know if we've got divided government

1116
00:54:08,680 --> 00:54:10,520
Speaker 15: or unified government depending on the outcome of the other

1117
00:54:10,520 --> 00:54:11,160
Speaker 15: two races.

1118
00:54:11,360 --> 00:54:13,200
Speaker 3: So how would you be feeling right now? If you're

1119
00:54:13,320 --> 00:54:14,879
Speaker 3: Speaker Johnson Nick?

1120
00:54:17,000 --> 00:54:19,640
Speaker 15: You know both he and had chemar on a razor's edge.

1121
00:54:20,040 --> 00:54:20,319
Speaker 11: I know.

1122
00:54:20,440 --> 00:54:21,920
Speaker 15: I talked to some of my Democrat friends. I was

1123
00:54:21,960 --> 00:54:25,120
Speaker 15: in Miami last week with a group of Democrats, and

1124
00:54:24,640 --> 00:54:27,960
Speaker 15: they were really excited about the House, really not excited

1125
00:54:27,960 --> 00:54:30,479
Speaker 15: about the Senate, and starting get excited about the White House.

1126
00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:33,080
Speaker 15: But then I look at some of the data, I

1127
00:54:33,120 --> 00:54:36,200
Speaker 15: see that real clear politics just moved Virginia ten, which

1128
00:54:36,239 --> 00:54:38,120
Speaker 15: is a race nobody knows about. A guy named Mike

1129
00:54:38,160 --> 00:54:41,000
Speaker 15: Clancy moved from a lean damn to.

1130
00:54:41,080 --> 00:54:41,680
Speaker 11: A toss up.

1131
00:54:41,760 --> 00:54:45,120
Speaker 15: That makes three toss up races in the state of

1132
00:54:45,200 --> 00:54:47,440
Speaker 15: Virginia alone. I guess is it's why Trump probably spent

1133
00:54:47,520 --> 00:54:50,400
Speaker 15: a little time there over the weekend. The races, Kaylee,

1134
00:54:50,480 --> 00:54:53,279
Speaker 15: are so there's so micro at the house level. There's

1135
00:54:53,320 --> 00:54:56,160
Speaker 15: so many local politics, so many local personalities. It's sort

1136
00:54:56,160 --> 00:54:58,120
Speaker 15: of hard to paint with a broad brush unless you

1137
00:54:58,160 --> 00:55:00,000
Speaker 15: have a wave election like you did in twenty ten.

1138
00:55:00,320 --> 00:55:01,439
Speaker 11: You don't have that here.

1139
00:55:01,760 --> 00:55:06,640
Speaker 15: So I think both Johnson and Hakim are just absolutely

1140
00:55:06,719 --> 00:55:08,200
Speaker 15: nail biting it down at the last minute.

1141
00:55:08,239 --> 00:55:09,759
Speaker 11: They're going to be probably a.

1142
00:55:09,680 --> 00:55:11,920
Speaker 15: Margin of five or six seats either way by the

1143
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:12,520
Speaker 15: time it's over.

1144
00:55:12,680 --> 00:55:15,400
Speaker 2: Then why is Washington so convinced we're going to have

1145
00:55:15,440 --> 00:55:18,719
Speaker 2: a split Congress. I'm of the mind that this might

1146
00:55:18,760 --> 00:55:21,200
Speaker 2: be why we haven't seen more volatility, or at least

1147
00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:24,160
Speaker 2: losses on Wall Street going into this contest, because it

1148
00:55:24,239 --> 00:55:26,399
Speaker 2: might not matter so much who the president is if

1149
00:55:26,440 --> 00:55:30,920
Speaker 2: you have a Democratic Runhouse in a Republican run Senate.

1150
00:55:32,400 --> 00:55:38,000
Speaker 15: Two reasons Washington lives inside the Beltway and watches those

1151
00:55:38,000 --> 00:55:40,160
Speaker 15: same sort of drives, the same narratives we talked about

1152
00:55:40,160 --> 00:55:42,480
Speaker 15: in terms of the anti Trump messaging out of the media.

1153
00:55:42,560 --> 00:55:45,080
Speaker 15: Wall Street has always been a miserable predictor of what

1154
00:55:45,080 --> 00:55:47,160
Speaker 15: happens in Washington, d C. I keep telling my friends

1155
00:55:47,160 --> 00:55:49,920
Speaker 15: on Wall Street, asking somebody on Wall Street what's happening

1156
00:55:49,960 --> 00:55:52,360
Speaker 15: in d C is like asking somebody in d C

1157
00:55:52,600 --> 00:55:55,280
Speaker 15: what's happening on Wall Street. And nobody would be stupid

1158
00:55:55,400 --> 00:55:57,880
Speaker 15: enough to do that. So the bottom line is that

1159
00:55:57,880 --> 00:56:00,680
Speaker 15: not enough folks nearly get out into the real world.

1160
00:56:00,719 --> 00:56:03,560
Speaker 15: I drove from Raleigh, North Carolina, to Charlotte this weekend

1161
00:56:03,880 --> 00:56:05,799
Speaker 15: through the back roads, and I got to tell you,

1162
00:56:05,880 --> 00:56:09,040
Speaker 15: I think you're going to see North Carolina go for

1163
00:56:09,120 --> 00:56:11,840
Speaker 15: Kamala Harris. I think Donald Trump is going to walk

1164
00:56:12,200 --> 00:56:15,080
Speaker 15: to Georgia a winn in Georgia, but may.

1165
00:56:14,960 --> 00:56:16,120
Speaker 11: Well lose North Carolina.

1166
00:56:16,200 --> 00:56:17,880
Speaker 15: That's a feel you get when you get out into

1167
00:56:17,920 --> 00:56:20,239
Speaker 15: the real world, talk to folks and get out in

1168
00:56:20,320 --> 00:56:21,240
Speaker 15: New York and DC.

1169
00:56:21,880 --> 00:56:24,120
Speaker 3: Well, and of course that's where we all find ourselves

1170
00:56:24,239 --> 00:56:26,319
Speaker 3: Joe and I in New York and mc mulvaney in DC.

1171
00:56:26,480 --> 00:56:29,080
Speaker 3: We appreciate you joining us former acting White House Chief

1172
00:56:29,120 --> 00:56:31,080
Speaker 3: of Staff during the Trump administration.

1173
00:56:36,000 --> 00:56:38,440
Speaker 9: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

1174
00:56:39,040 --> 00:56:42,200
Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify,

1175
00:56:42,280 --> 00:56:44,839
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

1176
00:56:44,920 --> 00:56:48,160
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

1177
00:56:48,480 --> 00:56:49,880
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com