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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarcklay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Oil's an issue, guys. We're at ninety dollars a barrel.

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Speaker 2: If you're just tuning in here firing up the terminal,

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Speaker 2: this is not Brent. This is West Texas Intermediate. You

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Speaker 2: heard Charlie. We're about twelve percent right now. We're not

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Speaker 2: fooling around. This is a big deal. We went red

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Speaker 2: when it crossed seventy the other day. That's where we

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Speaker 2: are now at ninety. And of course the White House

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Speaker 2: is acutely aware of this issue. There have been talks

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Speaker 2: about potentially tapping the spr and President has said he's

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Speaker 2: not worried. As soon as this is done in Iran,

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Speaker 2: the price is going to come back down. Kevin Hassett

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Speaker 2: didn't seem too worried either when he appeared this morning

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Listen to what he said

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Speaker 2: about the impact on energy prices.

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Speaker 3: We know that sometime soon, we're going to have a

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Speaker 3: much more stable Venezuela with high stable energy output, a

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Speaker 3: much more stable Iran with high end stable energy output,

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Speaker 3: which is going to be very good not only for

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Speaker 3: energy markets, but for risk premia around the world. Don't

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Speaker 3: forget that this move against Iran is happening because they've

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Speaker 3: promised to destroy us all Like, if that's not something

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Speaker 3: that affects risk premia, I don't know what is, and

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Speaker 3: so I think with an eye on horizon, then you

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Speaker 3: can see that this is a huge positive for global

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Speaker 3: the global economy and global markets. The question is, you know,

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Speaker 3: when will the current near term disruption end, And that's

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Speaker 3: something that'll be decided by the military and they'll, of course,

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Speaker 3: we'll be some uncertainty about when they decide to move,

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Speaker 3: in part because the uncertainty protects the lives of American soldiers, Kevin,

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Speaker 3: but we expect that it'll be resolved.

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Speaker 4: Wait soon, as you see, we're starting to see a

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Speaker 4: hit to production because we can't move the oil. We're

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Speaker 4: breaching storage capacity and select producers right now. You saw

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Speaker 4: some of that with a ROQ early this week, the

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Speaker 4: Journal reporting moments ago. We're seeing the same thing in

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Speaker 4: Qait and UAE and Saudi Arabia. My follow that's obviously

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Speaker 4: a bigger, more acute issue for the ancient refiners right now,

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Speaker 4: which is why the Treasury Secretary came out and issued

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Speaker 4: a waiver for the Indians to buy from Russia the

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Speaker 4: Russian crew that's offshore in tankers right now. But Kevin,

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Speaker 4: I wonder what else the White House has gone in store,

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Speaker 4: Not just to tell people to wait because in the

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Speaker 4: future will be better, but what are the remedies that

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Speaker 4: you can produce right now?

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Speaker 3: Oh? Sure, you know, the sanction waiver the Secretary Dosnt

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Speaker 3: came out with is just one of many, many tools

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Speaker 3: that we have ready. We've got a whole floatart of

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Speaker 3: tools to use depending on this or that, and we're

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Speaker 3: ready to move them as soon as we have to.

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Speaker 3: But we're also very optimistic that we're going to be

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Speaker 3: able to get this near term problem resolved relatively quickly.

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Speaker 4: The bottom administration, as you know, burnt through the SPR

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Speaker 4: took it down quite dramatically. Is there space left in

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Speaker 4: the SPR to deploy some of that to bring down prices?

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Speaker 5: Just a bit of consumers?

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Speaker 3: You know, there is no conversation right now to dip

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Speaker 3: into that, but we've got something like four hundred million

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Speaker 3: barrels ready to go if needed. But there is I

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Speaker 3: re emphasized there that there has not been a conversation

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Speaker 3: to dip into that yet, because our expectation is that

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Speaker 3: this effort in Iran is way ahead of schedule, and

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Speaker 3: we understand that they're near term market fluctuations, but we

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Speaker 3: have our eyes on the horizon and we think that's

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Speaker 3: where people should be looking to CA.

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Speaker 6: Can you say I had a schedule? Is there a sketchew?

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Speaker 3: Yes, But obviously we're not going to go through the

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Speaker 3: schedule on TV.

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Speaker 2: Well, we'd love to hear it even off TV because

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Speaker 2: there's been so many questions about timeline. Here, I will

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Speaker 2: add another log on the fire here as Cutter halts

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Speaker 2: production of liquefied natural gas LNG. Cutter expects all golf

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Speaker 2: energy producers to shut down exports within weeks if this continues,

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Speaker 2: potentially driving oil to one hundred and fifty dollars a

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Speaker 2: barrel according to the country's energy minister. Now we've got

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Speaker 2: a couple of tough headlines here. Of course on the terminal.

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Speaker 2: I already talked about crude at ninety. It's coming through

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Speaker 2: the other end though, in gas prices now looking at

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Speaker 2: the highest gas prices ever under a President Trump. Not

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Speaker 2: great as we get above the three dollar level on

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Speaker 2: a national average. Not great considering the midterm campaign cycle

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Speaker 2: that we're entering.

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Speaker 6: That's the political side of things. We want to stick with.

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Speaker 2: The energy side of things and bringing Tom Closa. This

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Speaker 2: is one of the first phone calls that we made

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Speaker 2: when missiles started flying last weekend. Tom's been in this

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Speaker 2: space for a long time, and I've had the pleasure

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Speaker 2: of talking to him for the better part of twenty

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Speaker 2: years as an oil trader, as an ANALYSTY is now

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Speaker 2: chief oil advisor at Gulf Oil, and Tom, it's great

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Speaker 2: to see you.

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Speaker 6: How high could we go here? And how worried are you?

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Speaker 7: Well? I think that we're talking about an abstraction. When

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Speaker 7: we were talking about the price crude oil right now,

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Speaker 7: I went ahead and looked at what one might expect

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Speaker 7: for gasoline prices with crude at ninety dollars. I thought

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Speaker 7: I had some time. I did that this morning, and

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Speaker 7: we're already above ninety. But we're going to see it

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Speaker 7: manifest itself at the pump. I think we're going to

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Speaker 7: see three point fifty to three seventy five almost immediately,

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Speaker 7: certainly before St. Patrick's day. And if we stick around

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Speaker 7: or we move higher, and we've been moving higher by

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Speaker 7: like six and twelve percent every day, we're going to

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Speaker 7: see a return of four dollars in a bunch of

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Speaker 7: different markets. You know. The one thing, Joe, is that

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Speaker 7: we're talking about ninety dollars for crude, and that's really exciting.

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Speaker 7: Gasoline is costing on a spot basis without taxes anywhere

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Speaker 7: from like one hundred and twenty five to one hundred

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Speaker 7: and thirty four dollars a barrel. Now diesel's about one

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Speaker 7: hundred and fifty dollars a barrel no tax, and jet

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Speaker 7: fuel that's about one hundred and eighty five. And that

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Speaker 7: may be the first product that hits two hundred dollars

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Speaker 7: a barrel, which I don't think. Well, no, we did

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Speaker 7: see some of those numbers back in the twenty twenty

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Speaker 7: two Russia Ukraine War.

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Speaker 2: Remember the spike we saw at that very time. This

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Speaker 2: was of course inspired by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Now

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Speaker 2: it's the United States that's initiating conflict here. Do you

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Speaker 2: expect similar levels. Will Donald Trump have a similar experience

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Speaker 2: that Joe Biden had, Well, it's possible.

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Speaker 7: When I heard Kevin has to talking about float charts,

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Speaker 7: that may, you know, worry you meet a little bit.

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Speaker 7: This isn't going to be sold with float charts and

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Speaker 7: Excel spreadsheets. I mean the straight ufor MOSE needs to

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Speaker 7: be reopened, and how they do that is questionable at

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Speaker 7: this moment. But we're talking fifteen or sixteen million barrels

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Speaker 7: a day of crude oil and then five or six

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Speaker 7: million barrels of dairy refined products. We've seen it manifest

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Speaker 7: itself more on the refined product side, and particularly for

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Speaker 7: products like diesel, heating oil, jet fuel, marine gas oil

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Speaker 7: that we're very, very tight despite the glutt and crude

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Speaker 7: and the blood and gasoline. So it's changing very quickly.

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Speaker 7: I do think that a month from now we're going

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Speaker 7: to be looking at something different, because I just don't

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Speaker 7: believe that this can be allowed to happen for weeks

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Speaker 7: upon weeks.

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Speaker 2: Wow, Okay, to what extent can any of this be

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Speaker 2: rerouted by vessel or by pipeline?

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Speaker 6: Tom they are rerouting some things.

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Speaker 7: Saudi Arabia has the most wrewial to do that. They

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Speaker 7: can move things to the red seaport of Pamboo Kuwaiting,

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Speaker 7: not so much. The Emirates not so much. So you

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Speaker 7: really do need the Straight reopened. I mean, I'm guilty

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Speaker 7: like most people of thinking they couldn't possibly shut down

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Speaker 7: the Straight and formos.

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Speaker 6: But when you think about.

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Speaker 7: It, and you think about the technology now and the

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Speaker 7: technology of ten or twenty thousand dollars drones that can

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Speaker 7: knock out billions of dollars of infrastructure and certainly could

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Speaker 7: knock out some of these expensive vessels, that's the.

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Speaker 6: Big game changer.

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Speaker 7: You know, Back in nineteen eighty five or eighty six,

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Speaker 7: you did have escorts take vessels through the region, but

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Speaker 7: you didn't have drones, and you didn't have a lot

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Speaker 7: of the missiles that you have out there right now

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Speaker 7: in that capability.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I've always been fascinated by the hats that oil analysts,

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Speaker 2: energy analysts and traders need to wear. You have to

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Speaker 2: be a geopolitical expert to work in the space, which

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Speaker 2: is why it's always fascinating to talk to you guys. Now,

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Speaker 2: Chris Wright knows a lot about this too. He's not

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Speaker 2: projecting it so much and interviews. He showed up on

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Speaker 2: Fox earlier to talk about I guess we could frame

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Speaker 2: his lack of concern about this issue.

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Speaker 6: Here's the secretary of Energy.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I think it's of order. Weeks, I would say,

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Speaker 8: in the worst case, but it's weeks, not months. And look,

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Speaker 8: Iran has been an escalator of energy prices forty seven years,

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Speaker 8: the whole history of their regime. We've got a little

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Speaker 8: bit of an interruption right now to finally put an

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Speaker 8: end to their ability to recavoc to kill Americans and

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Speaker 8: to terrorize their neighbors.

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Speaker 2: A little interruption right now. Tom, It doesn't sound like

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Speaker 2: that's how you're characterizing this.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, but let me tell you where they're coming from.

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Speaker 7: You you've heard this administration talk a lot about energy dominance,

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Speaker 7: and energy dominance really started with the high prices in

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Speaker 7: the air of spring fifteen or sixteen years ago, and

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Speaker 7: with the shale revolution. If you were having the Olympics

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Speaker 7: for continents, the North American continent is so superior to

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Speaker 7: every other right now. We've got cheap natural gas, we've

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Speaker 7: got cheap crude oil much cheaper than the rest of

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Speaker 7: the world. We've got world class refineries of world class technology,

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Speaker 7: and you know, we're producing just between the United States

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Speaker 7: and Canada about seventeen or eighteen million barrels of day

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Speaker 7: of crude. So I understand that compared to the rest

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Speaker 7: of the world, North America and particularly the United States

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Speaker 7: is in great shape, dominant shape.

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Speaker 6: Only got a minute left, Tom.

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Speaker 2: Do you agree with the administration that the long term

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Speaker 2: story here is a more stable energy market?

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Speaker 6: Probably I would.

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Speaker 7: Agree with that. Yeah, I think, you know, you never

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Speaker 7: know when these things happen how long it's going to

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Speaker 7: take to play out. But twenty twenty six was shaping

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Speaker 7: up as a very, very sloppy year for crude oil,

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Speaker 7: and if they get to straight reopen, it'll at some

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Speaker 7: point go back to that sloppy nature, probably in the

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Speaker 7: second half of the year. There's a reason why banks

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Speaker 7: who are predicting ninety or one hundred or even one

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Speaker 7: hundred and twenty dollars right now, that they're predicting something

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Speaker 7: in the sixties through you know, the back half.

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Speaker 6: Of the year.

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Speaker 7: And I think that unless it really blows up in

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Speaker 7: the region, we can get there.

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Speaker 6: Tom. I'm glad you're still at it.

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Speaker 9: Tom.

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Speaker 6: Close with gulf oil.

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Speaker 2: If you didn't get the hint on YouTube, Tom, Thank

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Speaker 2: you so much. Ninety dollars a barrel our reality today.

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Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 6: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much

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Speaker 6: more coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You

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Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

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Speaker 1: New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: It's the day after for Christinome. I guess for Mark

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Speaker 2: Wayne Mullen as well. Two pretty different scenarios here in

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Speaker 2: two pretty different politics, says the President of the United

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Speaker 2: States reassigns Secretary Nome to a new rule.

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Speaker 7: What is this?

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Speaker 2: The Shield of the America's James, is that the nobody's

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Speaker 2: ever heard of this? It'll be introduced this weekend, something

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Speaker 2: that presumably came out of a Marvel movie. Mark Wayne Mullen,

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Speaker 2: on the other hand, he's going to hang it up

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Speaker 2: as the Senator from Oklahoma and run DHS. And it's

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Speaker 2: been amazing reading about Mark Wayne Mullen because everyone reaches

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Speaker 2: for the same line Mullen comma known to be a fighter. Comma,

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Speaker 2: it's a I actually put it in Google and it

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Speaker 2: turns out that he is not just a fighter, he's

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Speaker 2: a black belt.

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Speaker 6: He's like an mma guy. Did you guys know this

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Speaker 6: Brazilian jiu jitsu?

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Speaker 2: He has a Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt, so he

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Speaker 2: could kill you with his bare hands. By the way,

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Speaker 2: has a five to zero record and was in fact

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Speaker 2: inducted into the Oklahoma Wrestling Hall of Fame in twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 2: I wonder if Sean O'Brien knew that when they almost

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Speaker 2: came to blows in the hearing room. I'll tell you

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Speaker 2: what you want to talk about, Mark Wayne Mullen, the fighter.

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Speaker 2: He even took his ring off. When do you remember this?

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Speaker 2: The head of the Teamsters was up there testifying Sean O'Brien,

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Speaker 2: and he had been kind of trolling Mullen online on

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Speaker 2: social media talking about him, and well, Mullen had just

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Speaker 2: about heard enough. As Bernie Sanders, the chair of that committee,

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Speaker 2: realized a bit too late.

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Speaker 6: Remember this this is just a couple of years ago. Sorry,

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Speaker 6: this is a time.

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Speaker 10: This is a place if you want to run your mouth,

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Speaker 10: we can be too consenting adults, so we can finish

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Speaker 10: it here.

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Speaker 6: Okay, that's fine, perfect, you want to do it now.

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Speaker 6: I'd love to do it right now. We'll stand your

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Speaker 6: butt up. Then you stand you up on him, we'll

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Speaker 6: stop it. So okay, you know you're United States Saturday.

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Speaker 6: You're as embarrassment after.

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Speaker 9: Hearing about the edition of the Working Class in America

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Speaker 9: thought with you're the biggest thug here.

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Speaker 6: Listen.

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Speaker 2: If you're with us on ninety two nine, you know, well,

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Speaker 2: you don't pick a fight with a kid from Dorchester,

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Speaker 2: but Mullen did.

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Speaker 6: And we assemble our.

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Speaker 2: Political panel to talk about well the political fallout. Genie

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Speaker 2: Schanzano is with us, are, of course Bloomberg Politics contributor

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Speaker 2: and Democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center,

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Speaker 2: Rick Davis at World Headquarters in New York, Republicans strategists

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Speaker 2: and partner at Stone Court Capitol. Rick, I wouldn't, I guess,

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Speaker 2: want to meet Mark Wayne Mullen in a dark alley.

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Speaker 2: This all developed while we were on the air yesterday,

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Speaker 2: by the way, and Rick has weighed in a bit here.

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Speaker 2: I'm just wondering what comes next for him if this

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Speaker 2: is going to be an accelerated confirmation process if he's

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Speaker 2: as good as got the job.

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Speaker 11: Rick, Yeah, I think the accelerated process is important because

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Speaker 11: you don't want any lapse of leadership and an important

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Speaker 11: agency like this, especially one that's been shut down for

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Speaker 11: almost twenty days. And the reality too is he should

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Speaker 11: be able to get senatorial courtesy in fast track through

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Speaker 11: the nomination process.

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Speaker 6: That would be typical.

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Speaker 11: Obviously, he's a bit of a firebrand, as you sought

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Speaker 11: just indicated, and Democrats should probably put up a pretty

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Speaker 11: vociferous opposition to him. But at the end of the day,

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Speaker 11: this is a done deal, and I think you'll probably

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Speaker 11: see this move pretty quickly.

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Speaker 2: You might have heard he's a fighter, Genie. What will

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Speaker 2: Democrats do in that confirmation hearing.

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Speaker 12: Joe, My head is still reeling from that intro you

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Speaker 12: just gave. You know, let's just say about his confirmation hearing.

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Speaker 12: It goes through the Department of Homeland Security, chaired by

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Speaker 12: a one Senator Rand Paul, whom Mark Wayne Mullman recently

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Speaker 12: called a freaking snake, and so there should be fireworks

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Speaker 12: not only from the Democrats, but we may see some

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Speaker 12: from the Republicans as well, to your point, that is

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Speaker 12: how most of us are around the country outside of Oklahoma.

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Speaker 12: First got to know him was in this very odd

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Speaker 12: Bernie Sanders refereed fight with O'Brien that.

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Speaker 13: Didn't come to blow.

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Speaker 12: But good news, Jo, they made up Donald Trump the peacemaker.

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Speaker 12: He has brought them together, as we remember because we

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Speaker 12: all were there. O'Brien spoke at the Republican Convention, not

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Speaker 12: at the Democratic so all's well, I hear even O'Brien

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Speaker 12: yesterday made a statement mildly supporting Mullen.

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Speaker 13: So I think from that perspective.

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Speaker 12: It was just two guys in a Senate committee having

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Speaker 12: a brawl.

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Speaker 13: And I think that Democrats are.

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Speaker 12: Democrats are going to you know, they will put up

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Speaker 12: a fight, but I think it's there's he's likely to

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Speaker 12: get through this, but I don't know that it's going

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Speaker 12: to change much in terms of the shutdown on in

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Speaker 12: terms of DHS.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, these guys are fast friends. Now, as

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Speaker 2: CC said, he respects a worthy opponent. There's no way

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Speaker 2: to no better way than to make friends with a

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Speaker 2: fighter than to get in a fight with him. Right,

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Speaker 2: So here we have the teamster's leader actually endorsing this idea,

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Speaker 2: which is fantastic. Sean O'Brien offering unexpected praise for Mark

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Speaker 2: Waeen Mullen's nomination to lead the Department of Homeland Security.

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Speaker 6: They're fast friends now.

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Speaker 2: They had like a beer summit or something and big

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Speaker 2: questions about what happens to the seat. And this is

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Speaker 2: really what I'd like to get into with the two

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Speaker 2: of you. What happens to Mullen's seat and what happens

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Speaker 2: to Christy nom Because we understand that the governor, Kevin Stitt,

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Speaker 2: will appoint an interim senator. In per state law, Rick

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Speaker 2: that person must pledge not to run for a full

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Speaker 2: term in November.

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Speaker 6: How is this all going to shake out?

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Speaker 11: Yeah, you're going to have a group of people probably

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Speaker 11: buying to on both the Republican and the Democratic side

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Speaker 11: to jump into this race. There's still time to get

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Speaker 11: into the primaries in Oklahoma, so you know.

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Speaker 6: The timing is good.

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Speaker 11: None of these campaigns will have raised any money or

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Speaker 11: positioned themselves with the voters yet, so it'll be a

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Speaker 11: fast track to a primary. But somebody will be a

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Speaker 11: caretaker that'll sit through that seat until January twenty twenty seven,

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Speaker 11: and you'll have a knockdown, drag out fight. Highly likely

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Speaker 11: a Republican will prevail because Oklahoma is a solidly red state.

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Speaker 11: But the primary may not be that interesting unless Donald

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Speaker 11: Trump doesn't endorse. But likely he'll find someone he wants,

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Speaker 11: he'll endorse him and that person will win the primary.

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Speaker 2: Interesting Speaker Johnson Jeanie told reporters yesterday that Governor Stitt

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Speaker 2: promised him not to tap a House Republican.

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Speaker 6: We can't lose anyone right now was the quote.

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Speaker 2: And I'm curious to be honest with you as to

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Speaker 2: why he would want this job.

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Speaker 6: He's the United States Senator.

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Speaker 2: He seems to be very well regarded on Capitol Hill

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Speaker 2: as not only a team member for Republicans, but a negotiator.

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Speaker 6: Genie.

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Speaker 2: He's been negotiating between the two chambers and between Republicans

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Speaker 2: and Democrats. He talked about during the shutdowns sitting down

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Speaker 2: at democrats kitchen tables and having fruit full conversations with them.

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Speaker 2: But when I heard him talk about the challenges that

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Speaker 2: Christino Om faced in the job, it made me think, well,

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Speaker 2: why would he want this? Listen to Mark Wayne Mullen

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Speaker 2: on the steps of the Capitol yesterday, she was tasked.

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Speaker 10: To a very different job, and I think she has

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Speaker 10: performed the best she can do in underneath the circumstances.

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Speaker 10: Is there always lessons going to be learned? You know, listen,

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Speaker 10: my wife and I we have over the years, we

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Speaker 10: have been fortunate enough to purchase companies and draw our companies,

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Speaker 10: and every day there's something you can do better. And

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Speaker 10: so I think there's there's an opportunity to build off successes,

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Speaker 10: and there's also opportunities to build off things that maybe

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Speaker 10: didn't go quite as planned.

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Speaker 6: Well, there's going to be a lot that comes with

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Speaker 6: this job. Genie. Is this a promotion?

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Speaker 2: I mean, I guess he's joining the cabinet, But why

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Speaker 2: do you leave a Senate seat for this?

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Speaker 12: Yeah, and let's just underscore what Johnson said, Literally, he

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Speaker 12: can't afford.

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Speaker 13: To lose one seat. That is quite literal for Johnson.

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Speaker 12: And you know, Mullen is very close by accounts to

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Speaker 12: Donald Trump.

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Speaker 13: And here is a guy who went from being an

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Speaker 13: MMA fighter and a plumber.

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Speaker 12: Owning his own plumbing company into politics about fifteen years ago,

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Speaker 12: and just this stratospheric rise and in the political realm

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Speaker 12: finding himself as a Senator of the United states. I

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Speaker 12: think it's very, very tough for anybody to say no

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Speaker 12: to the President went called on. So absolutely, I have

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Speaker 12: no question that he when the President called, he was

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Speaker 12: there and willing to do what he can.

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Speaker 13: And what he's asked to do.

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Speaker 12: I think there is a little bit of It's a

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Speaker 12: little bit ingenuous of the White House.

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Speaker 13: To suggest that, for.

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Speaker 12: Instance, on this two hundred and twenty million dollars you

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Speaker 12: know Yellowstone Taylor Sheridan's style campaign that Christy Nome had,

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Speaker 12: that they just didn't know about it. This thing had

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Speaker 12: been out for a year. The President is featured prominently

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Speaker 12: in it. So I think a lot of this has

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Speaker 12: to do with discomfort with Christine Dome, and not just

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Speaker 12: coming from Donald Trump personally, but from Stephen Miller, who

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Speaker 12: late last year was making that clear in terms of

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Speaker 12: her spending. And so they want somebody to do their bidding,

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Speaker 12: and I think that is what's most troubling about this.

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Speaker 12: It has very little to do with change of ice

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Speaker 12: tactics or ice strategies, or the killing of Renee Good

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Speaker 12: and the killing of Preddy. It has to do with

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Speaker 12: a replacement of somebody who blamed her boss publicly for

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Speaker 12: wasteful spending and has done other things and they.

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Speaker 13: Want her out. But Mark Wayne Mullen is going to.

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Speaker 12: Find himself having to execute on the same really unpopular

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Speaker 12: ice tactics that she was, with absolutely no willingness on

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Speaker 12: the part of the White House beyond the body cameras

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Speaker 12: to pull back on that.

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Speaker 6: Hey Rick.

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Speaker 2: Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana, who played a big role

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Speaker 2: in leading us to this moment, following his questioning of

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Speaker 2: Christinome in the hearing earlier this week, said Donald Try

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Speaker 2: called him after the hearing. The President was not a

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Speaker 2: happy cowboy. The senator said, I remember thinking this is

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Speaker 2: such classic John Kennedy. I remember thinking the secretary quote

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Speaker 2: pretty much is dead as fried chicken unquote.

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Speaker 6: What's going to happen to Christine Nome?

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Speaker 2: Is this new job real or is this the way

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Speaker 2: of sunsetting her as a member of the administration.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm sure some.

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Speaker 11: Interesting person in the White House said, Oh, we can't

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Speaker 11: just fire, We've got to give her an exit plan.

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Speaker 11: So they concocted this scenario for the Western Summit shield.

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Speaker 11: Who knows what that's going to be, And it probably

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Speaker 11: doesn't really matter that much. Maybe she's going to wind

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Speaker 11: up running Venezuela. Who knows.

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Speaker 6: But at the end of the day, all eyes are on.

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Speaker 11: Mark Wade Mullen. And look, I mean, this is an

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Speaker 11: agency that's in dire need of help, right. They need

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Speaker 11: new leadership, they need new direction, they need new funding.

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Speaker 11: I mean, this is a severe test of leadership that

441
00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:01,280
Speaker 11: he's going to face. And I don't know if his

442
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:06,119
Speaker 11: appointment will break the logjam of funding for an agency

443
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 11: like this that has been frozen in time. But we

444
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:11,639
Speaker 11: can hope that this is the kind of thing that

445
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 11: will get everything back on track and create some kind

446
00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:18,160
Speaker 11: of an outcome where people can get paid and new

447
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 11: policies can be pursued, not just to meet Donald Trump's

448
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 11: administration's agenda, but also to build confidence with the American

449
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:30,520
Speaker 11: public that the agencies not against American citizens.

450
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 2: Sounds kind of painful, to be honest. Genie Democrats say

451
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 2: that this doesn't change anything for them when it comes

452
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 2: to DHS funding, that he needs to still make good

453
00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 2: on dm asking and judicial warrants.

454
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:43,920
Speaker 6: He's not about to change his tune on that, is.

455
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 13: He He's not.

456
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 12: We've seen no sign of that, and I think that

457
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,880
Speaker 12: is what troubling, although Senator Blumenthal prior to the firing

458
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 12: said well, if she was removed, it might be easier

459
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:58,239
Speaker 12: for us to negotiate. So maybe there's something there, but

460
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:00,080
Speaker 12: I still think it's going to have to be a

461
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:03,080
Speaker 12: substantial And Joe, by the way, can we just agree

462
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:06,000
Speaker 12: that this was some redemption for little Cricket, the puppy

463
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 12: that Christinome.

464
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 13: Killed months old, and.

465
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:13,199
Speaker 12: You know, Cricket, Cricket needed to see his day and

466
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:16,200
Speaker 12: thank goodness for Donald Trump and Steven Miller, a bit

467
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:17,040
Speaker 12: of redemption for.

468
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:17,720
Speaker 13: The little puppy.

469
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 2: Say his name, Jeanie, say it out loud with apologies.

470
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 2: It's a little Cricket. Stay with us on Balance of Power.

471
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 2: We'll have much more coming up after this.

472
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

473
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:40,480
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cockleay,

474
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 1: and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on

475
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

476
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:48,879
Speaker 1: on YouTube.

477
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:52,719
Speaker 14: I'm Tyler Kendall alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington, and

478
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,399
Speaker 14: we've had our eyes on the foreign policy front, but

479
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 14: we've also seen some major headlines related to domestic policies

480
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 14: in the Trump administry. This week, as you well know

481
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 14: by now, we saw President Trump nominate a new DHS secretary,

482
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 14: ousting Nome the current one and announcing Joe Matthew. That's

483
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:14,040
Speaker 14: going to be Senator Mark Wayne Mullen, a Republican from

484
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:17,400
Speaker 14: Oklahoma who's known to be in some sense a negotiator

485
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,639
Speaker 14: on Capitol Hill. Because we have to keep in mind DHS,

486
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 14: the Department of Homeland Security is still amid a partial well,

487
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 14: the DHS is fully closed, but we are still amid

488
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:29,440
Speaker 14: a partial government chutdown.

489
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 6: That's the truth.

490
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:32,400
Speaker 2: This is quite a time to be taking the helm

491
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 2: at DHS. And of course you've got a senator who

492
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:36,919
Speaker 2: probably could have kept that job for the balance of

493
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,960
Speaker 2: his career leaving the Senate to lead this department at

494
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 2: a very chaotic time. We have big questions, of course,

495
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 2: what happens to Christy Noman from here? This Shield of

496
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:47,919
Speaker 2: the Americas is unknown to us. I guess the President

497
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 2: will be unveiling this coming weekend. But it of course

498
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 2: also sets off a fight to fill that Senate seat

499
00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 2: in Oklahoma. And that's where we start our conversation with

500
00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 2: Mark Short. Don't worry we will get to foreign policy

501
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,680
Speaker 2: with a former chief of staff to a former Vice President,

502
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:07,399
Speaker 2: Mike Pence, former White House Director of Legislative Affairs. Market's

503
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 2: great to see you, Happy Friday, and thanks for joining us.

504
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 2: Why would Mark Wayne Mullen want to do this? This

505
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:15,159
Speaker 2: is a seat he could have held for right the

506
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:16,400
Speaker 2: balance of his career.

507
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 6: Why why jump on.

508
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 2: DHS at a moment of chaos if only you don't

509
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:22,159
Speaker 2: say no to the boss?

510
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:25,200
Speaker 9: Well, you know, perhaps the Senate isn't as much fun

511
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 9: as some people think this and people want an hour, But.

512
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it could be.

513
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:32,440
Speaker 9: But I think it's a really good question that Joe,

514
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:36,479
Speaker 9: because the reality is that I think the policies are

515
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:38,400
Speaker 9: really guiding part of homeland security are gonna be driven

516
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 9: by the White House and particularly by Steven and so

517
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,200
Speaker 9: you know, yes, so to what extent are you having

518
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 9: operational control as secretary? I think you've seen over the

519
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:50,120
Speaker 9: that there are four secretaries in first administration and now

520
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 9: one and second administration. This is really it's not like

521
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 9: he's going to have a chance to really direct this himself.

522
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 9: So I think it's a fair question to ask. I

523
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:02,199
Speaker 9: think it's also I mean Oklahoma's a safe Republican seats, sure,

524
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 9: but you know, a lot of focus has been on

525
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 9: the likelihood of the House flipping. There's a big risk

526
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:10,399
Speaker 9: to the Senate flipping too, And I think a lot

527
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:13,400
Speaker 9: of people assume fifty three forty seven the map favorable

528
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:15,680
Speaker 9: to Republicans. But we start going through the states of

529
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 9: the Democrats are cruiting who they want to Ohio against

530
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 9: the freshman who they wanted in Alaska. You know what's

531
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:24,360
Speaker 9: happened in North Carolina, Texas variable It's like the last

532
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:26,480
Speaker 9: thing we need right now is more open seats. And

533
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:29,080
Speaker 9: I think you know, the situation waiting into in Montana

534
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:32,119
Speaker 9: also is ruffled feathers too, So this creates a lot

535
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 9: more consternation the Senate as well.

536
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:36,240
Speaker 14: So I do want to stick with domestic policy, but

537
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 14: I am going to mention a foreign policy adjacent headline

538
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:41,639
Speaker 14: that's crossing the Bloomberg terminal right now, causing Boeing shares

539
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 14: to jump more than three percent. Reportedly, Boeing is closing

540
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 14: in on one of the largest sales in its history,

541
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 14: of five hundred aircraft order for seven thirty seven Max

542
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 14: jets to be unveiled when President Trump travels to Beijing.

543
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:57,280
Speaker 14: This is going to be a deal with China, as

544
00:27:57,320 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 14: we know that that trade deal right now is currently

545
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 14: up in the air. As we just saw the Supreme

546
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 14: Court strike down some of President Trump's broad based tariffs.

547
00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:06,439
Speaker 14: So that's going to be a headline that we're tracking

548
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 14: three percent.

549
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 6: That's a big deal.

550
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 2: You know, they were hoping the Biden administration was hoping

551
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 2: for a deal like this coming out of COVID.

552
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 14: It never happened, right, And it's raising questions too about

553
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,680
Speaker 14: leverage for President Trump going into this meeting after it

554
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 14: was largely seen that he had been offset from the

555
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 14: Supreme Court's ruling. So something that I'm sure we'll talk

556
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:24,200
Speaker 14: more about. Lee, you mentioned it this hour, but Mark,

557
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 14: I do want to bring it back to this conversation.

558
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:28,760
Speaker 14: We can keep with the midterms and maybe this kind

559
00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 14: of threads into it. But I'm wondering if Senator Mullen's

560
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 14: selection is more about style versus substance, are we going

561
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:42,000
Speaker 14: to see it? No, no, no, no, no more more along

562
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:43,800
Speaker 14: the lines of a question, are we actually going to

563
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 14: see policy change here when we know Democrats are demanding

564
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:49,040
Speaker 14: some changes when it comes to DHS, and maybe there

565
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 14: just needed to be a different type of messenger amid

566
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 14: what had been bipartisan pushed back to the last DHS secretary.

567
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 9: Senators like their own and so I like you say,

568
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 9: doubt the Senate will confirm Mark Wayne Mullins. That's a

569
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 9: plus as far as who the replacement pick is. But again,

570
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:06,080
Speaker 9: I think that the policy is not going to change.

571
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 9: The policy is still being driven by the White House

572
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 9: and by Steven Miller on homeland security issues, and so yes,

573
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 9: you might have a different face for them, but you're

574
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 9: not really going to have a change in the policies.

575
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 9: But I really think this is at this time when

576
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 9: we're at Worth Iran, it's a real opportunity for Republicans

577
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:24,960
Speaker 9: to be pushing the fact that Democrats are refusing to

578
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 9: fund homeland security when you know their sleeper sales in

579
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:31,480
Speaker 9: this country, and instead there's so much chaos that you're

580
00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 9: actually not allowed to get on offense and prosecute the

581
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 9: case against Democrats are not funding it. Instead, you're sitting

582
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,959
Speaker 9: here having news interviews every day about the chaos with

583
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 9: the outgoing secretary and what are the chances for the

584
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 9: new secretary, And so real Republicans are really missing an

585
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 9: opportunity here politically to be scoring points about Democrats keeping

586
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 9: DHS shut down.

587
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 2: Speak to us about the significance of this change. You

588
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 2: saw a lot of Cabinet secretaries come and go in

589
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 2: the first term. The president has been very careful to

590
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 2: not give anyone the opportunity to use the word fired,

591
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 2: and I think a a number of folks reached for

592
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 2: that lieth first to be fired. Well, then there was

593
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 2: Michael Walls, but he didn't get fired either. Do we

594
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:07,680
Speaker 2: just reassign people?

595
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 14: Now?

596
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:11,000
Speaker 2: You send him to another parish in this second term,

597
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 2: I think.

598
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 9: That there's probably been too much sensitivity to that. And yes,

599
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 9: I think I'm not offering a vote of confidence when

600
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 9: you're having constant turnover. But frankly, I think Americans sent

601
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 9: Donald Trump in part because of the role he played

602
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:26,680
Speaker 9: on Apprentice.

603
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:28,360
Speaker 5: Apart they wanted somebody to go.

604
00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 6: To Washington, D C.

605
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 9: And fire the mall and basically take a wrecking ball

606
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 9: to Washington, D C. And so how much that really

607
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 9: hurt him, I don't know. And I've questioned a lot

608
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 9: of the picks in the second administration, and I think

609
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 9: probably would have benefited from replacing some of them sooner.

610
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 14: Well, we did promise that we would ask you about

611
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 14: foreign policy, and you already brought.

612
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 6: It up in some ways too.

613
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 14: There's reporting that Congressional Republicans are bracing for this White

614
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 14: House to ask them for a supplemental funding request for

615
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 14: the Pentagon to help bolster our own defenses as the

616
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 14: campaign continues. I'm wondering if you have any sense of

617
00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:06,840
Speaker 14: how much money we're potentially talking about here and what

618
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 14: the appetite right now is on Capitol Hill, but the

619
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 14: pressure to make sure that we are adequately funding as

620
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 14: the military operation.

621
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 9: Continues, I would imagine you see a pretty large ask.

622
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 9: And I think the reality is that in the time

623
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 9: of war that those are generally approved by Congress, and

624
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 9: it's perceives if you're voting against our troops if you're

625
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 9: opposed to it. And the reality is that I think

626
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 9: that truly this is a transformational opportunity for President Trump.

627
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 6: I applaud his decisions.

628
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 9: I think after forty seven years of all the attacks,

629
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 9: whether it's our embassy or whether the attacks in Beirut,

630
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 9: or funding Hamas and Hezbla, the fact that I ran

631
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 9: for forty seven years has been prosecuting a war against

632
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:48,240
Speaker 9: the West and demanding death to American death to Israel.

633
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 9: It's about time that we actually had this action. So

634
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 9: I plot them for it. But Tyler, I think the

635
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 9: concern that I would have if I'm in Congress elected Republican,

636
00:31:56,880 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 9: I think the present lowering energy prices for the first

637
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 9: fifteen months masked a.

638
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:02,720
Speaker 6: Lot of his trade policy implications.

639
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 9: Now that you have energy prices spiking, I think you

640
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:08,360
Speaker 9: can see the real downside of these tariff policies, and

641
00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:11,240
Speaker 9: you see inflation coming back as you're heading into the midterms,

642
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 9: and so I think it's applaud the foreign policy move,

643
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 9: but I think they're really significant implications you had in

644
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 9: the mid terms. If you continue to see inflation like this,

645
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 9: you would.

646
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 2: Have been walking over at this supplemental request right in

647
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:24,080
Speaker 2: the old days as the head of Fledge Affairs in

648
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 2: the White House, Democrats are going to say, who I

649
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 2: thought we had the first trillion dollar budget in history

650
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 2: for the Pentagon and it just went up by fifty percent.

651
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 6: Why do we need more?

652
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 9: Well, you know the reality is that our deficits are

653
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 9: so far out of control that actually we're now at

654
00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 9: three percent of GDP is going toward defense pending, which

655
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 9: is the lowest it has been since World War Two, Joe,

656
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 9: So we've actually been underfund.

657
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:46,680
Speaker 6: Then, is about catching up?

658
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 9: I think it is now now. To be fair, there

659
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 9: are plenty of people inside this administration. You argued for

660
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 9: more cuts initially to the Pentagon. I think was wrong.

661
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 9: But I think we have been underfunding it. But I

662
00:32:57,800 --> 00:32:59,720
Speaker 9: think at times, I think typically when you're going to

663
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 9: see something like this is you'll see other stuff put

664
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 9: in the bill because because again there's a notion that

665
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 9: Congress is not going to vote against sentence perceived and

666
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 9: so against our troops when there at war, and so

667
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 9: you find you can attach a lot of things to

668
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 9: a bill like that. Yes, the memories, whether that's from

669
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 9: coming from the White House or it's playing from Congress understood,

670
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:19,760
Speaker 9: they'll either see the looks you see some Democrats on board.

671
00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:22,840
Speaker 6: Yes, they'll see this thing creation. Yes, let me jump

672
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 6: on board. Thank you.

673
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 14: Mark all right, Mark sure, former chiefest Staff, de Vice

674
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 14: President Mike Pence, and former White House Director of Ledge

675
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:31,160
Speaker 14: Affairs all echo. Joe, it's always nice to see you

676
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:34,360
Speaker 14: in person. We want to continue this conversation and bring

677
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:37,520
Speaker 14: in Christina Raffini Bloomberg this weekend co host. She always

678
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 14: has one eye on geopolitics. So Christina, the big news

679
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 14: today President Trump calling for unconditional surrender, but then also

680
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 14: nodding at the fact that the US wants to have

681
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 14: a say when it comes to the next leader of Iran.

682
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 14: Can you just give us the latest. What do we

683
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 14: know about the administration's thinking here? When President Trump said

684
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 14: earlier this week that a lot of the contenders they've

685
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 14: been eyeing have been killed in the airstrikes.

686
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:02,440
Speaker 15: I think that's it's a pretty startling admission. I'm not

687
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 15: sure that was something most people would recommend you say

688
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:08,600
Speaker 15: out loud. But I also think it's very The odds

689
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:10,480
Speaker 15: are slim that the United States is going to have

690
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 15: a real say into who the next leader of Iran is. Right,

691
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:15,439
Speaker 15: this is a very entrench regime that has been there

692
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:18,880
Speaker 15: since the revolution. They do still have some support on

693
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:22,120
Speaker 15: the ground, and there are layers and layers and layers

694
00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 15: of these loyalists, all of whom have going to be

695
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 15: and will be vying for this top spot. It also

696
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 15: the US found this out the hard way when they

697
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 15: put who they wanted in charge of Iran, and then

698
00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:34,879
Speaker 15: there was this thing called the Iranian Revolution. And that's

699
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 15: how we got the guys we had until very recently.

700
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:41,240
Speaker 15: So there is a long standing issue with puppet governments,

701
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:43,719
Speaker 15: especially in the region, especially in Iran. And if the

702
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:46,400
Speaker 15: US is looking for a more durable solution and a

703
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 15: more US friendly solution, people in Iran do not like

704
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 15: this regime. People in Iran, you know, the average person is.

705
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,360
Speaker 15: I've talked to some Iranian friends are grateful that the

706
00:34:57,400 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 15: Ayatola is gone, but they also don't want to be

707
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:02,840
Speaker 15: a puppet state of the United States. And finding something

708
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 15: in the middle there is probably the best solution. Now,

709
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:07,799
Speaker 15: whether or not that's going to happen, I think there's

710
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:09,080
Speaker 15: no way we can tell at this point.

711
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:14,279
Speaker 2: Christina, US Intelligence seeing no signs of uprisings or defections

712
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,839
Speaker 2: as we approach the one week mark here.

713
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 6: What does that tell you?

714
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 2: Is that a sign of stability in what's left of

715
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:24,719
Speaker 2: the regime or the fact that, as we just established,

716
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:26,360
Speaker 2: we've taken so many people off the board.

717
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 5: I think it's that.

718
00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:31,520
Speaker 15: I think it's a couple things. It's also fear. People

719
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,319
Speaker 15: are hunkering down. I mean I talked to a woman

720
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:36,279
Speaker 15: who said she doesn't even know where her family is

721
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:38,920
Speaker 15: because last time they bomb, they left Tehran and went

722
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 15: out into the mountains to try to be safe. People

723
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:43,759
Speaker 15: are not home, people are not organized, people can't communicate.

724
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:46,719
Speaker 15: It's really hard to organize a protest against the repressive

725
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 15: regime if you can't even talk to one another WhatsApp.

726
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:51,919
Speaker 15: These messaging signals have been shut down for the most

727
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:56,120
Speaker 15: part by the regime. And it's also the IRGC. It

728
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:59,280
Speaker 15: has been significantly degraded by the United States and by Israel,

729
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 15: but it does still exist. You know, the president openly

730
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:06,239
Speaker 15: offered amnesty to IERGC members, to people who would defect

731
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 15: and be willing to come into the fold, and youre what,

732
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 15: we haven't seen a lot of that. I think the

733
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:14,640
Speaker 15: president was trying to export the Venezuela model here. These

734
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 15: are very different countries with very different political systems, and

735
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:20,160
Speaker 15: it may not go as quickly as he had hoped.

736
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you something, it's a pretty good situation

737
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 2: when one of the best analysts you have on this

738
00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:29,320
Speaker 2: also is hosting her own program, and that's miss Ruffini

739
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:30,239
Speaker 2: along with David Gerra.

740
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:32,799
Speaker 6: It's Bloomberg this week, and we just started a week ago.

741
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 2: Tomorrow morning at seven am, you'll have the very latest

742
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:37,879
Speaker 2: on this, and I'll remind you that it was miss

743
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:41,479
Speaker 2: Ruffini who walked you through the initial stages of these

744
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:47,239
Speaker 2: strikes one week ago minus one day Ruffini and Gura

745
00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:50,600
Speaker 2: only on Bloomberg. Thank you, Christina. I'm Joe Matthew alongside

746
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 2: Tyler Kendall. We're live in Washington. Stay with us on

747
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:55,880
Speaker 2: Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

748
00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:03,640
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch

749
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

750
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 1: Apple Cockway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

751
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

752
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:17,760
Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

753
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:21,439
Speaker 14: We want to dive deeper into the economy because today,

754
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:24,319
Speaker 14: of course, we got the jobs report. US employers unexpectedly

755
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:27,640
Speaker 14: cut to jobs last month and the unemployment rate rose.

756
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:30,239
Speaker 14: To discuss, we're joined now by Liz Pancotti. She's the

757
00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:33,839
Speaker 14: managing director of policy and Advocacy at the Groundwork Collaborative.

758
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:36,560
Speaker 5: Liz, it's good to see you. The figures today.

759
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 14: Seem to be calling into question whether or not the

760
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:41,920
Speaker 14: labor market is actually steadying our own analysts at Bloombery

761
00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:44,960
Speaker 14: Economics right that the decline was partly due to a

762
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:48,480
Speaker 14: combination of temporary disruptions. I'm wondering if you can take

763
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 14: us through this and what you're gleaning from the data

764
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:51,280
Speaker 14: we got today.

765
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 16: Yeah, so this morning the Labor Apartment, the Labor Department

766
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:57,239
Speaker 16: reported that jobs were down about one hundred thousand dollars

767
00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 16: dollars hundred thousand jobs last month. That cut was primarily

768
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 16: driven by a temporary work stoppage of some doctors and physicians,

769
00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:09,239
Speaker 16: a couple of healthcare strikes going on last month.

770
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:11,880
Speaker 5: The issue with that is that over the last.

771
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:14,879
Speaker 16: Year, the only sector driving the vast majority of job

772
00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:18,000
Speaker 16: growth has been the healthcare one, and so the precarity

773
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:20,279
Speaker 16: of that was really shown over the past month that

774
00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:23,040
Speaker 16: a temporary strike of really not that many workers in

775
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 16: the grand scheme of things, was able to tip our

776
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:29,239
Speaker 16: labor market into the negative. We saw declines and transportation

777
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:33,480
Speaker 16: and warehousing and manufacturing and construction across the board. Things

778
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:35,640
Speaker 16: are really clearing up that the picture in the labor

779
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:36,399
Speaker 16: market is not good.

780
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:37,279
Speaker 6: So what was the weather?

781
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:38,480
Speaker 7: Now?

782
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 2: Actually hearing that that was part of the blame, was

783
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:43,200
Speaker 2: the weather? Obviously being sort of cute here. So take

784
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:46,120
Speaker 2: the weather and we had snow crete and everybody was

785
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:47,600
Speaker 2: locked in their house for a couple of weeks.

786
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:50,040
Speaker 6: Remove the storm, remove the strikes. What would this number

787
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 6: of look like?

788
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:52,799
Speaker 16: You know, I think what we have seen is really

789
00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:56,360
Speaker 16: stagnating labor market. But I will note that, you know,

790
00:38:56,400 --> 00:39:00,319
Speaker 16: the Labor Department revised down the December number considerably such

791
00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 16: that that went into the negative. The January revision wasn't

792
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 16: as extreme. But I think if you look at the

793
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 16: kind of three months six month picture, that's a little

794
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:11,040
Speaker 16: less noisy. We are seeing at best stagnation and it

795
00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:13,120
Speaker 16: works a tip into the red that is here to stay.

796
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 14: So we did hear from the administration on these numbers

797
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 14: earlier today. The NEC director Kevin Hasse joined Bloomberg Television

798
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:22,359
Speaker 14: and Radio with Jonathan Faraoh earlier and he said, at

799
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:25,799
Speaker 14: this point, the administration isn't concerned by the data. Let's

800
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 14: take a list and get your reaction.

801
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:29,920
Speaker 3: On the other side, don Nett, it's almost like a

802
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:33,759
Speaker 3: wash number. There's a new procedure birth death model at

803
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 3: the BLS, which we believe is going to make the

804
00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 3: number more volatile. So I think more and more we're

805
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 3: going to have to average through the months. And remember

806
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:45,840
Speaker 3: we had a really surprisingly positive number last month, and

807
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 3: I think if you average the two then it's about

808
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 3: at the rate of job growth that's consistent with the

809
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 3: three or four percent GDP growth.

810
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:57,879
Speaker 14: So is this more a math a math problem when

811
00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:00,960
Speaker 14: you're hearing the NEC director there talking about maybe some

812
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:03,360
Speaker 14: of the broader contexts that we should be taking into account.

813
00:40:03,440 --> 00:40:05,960
Speaker 16: In my opinion, no, if you take the last three

814
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:07,680
Speaker 16: months of job growth and you average them, you get

815
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:10,640
Speaker 16: about zero, and so I'm not sure that's what you're

816
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:13,760
Speaker 16: looking for. And a roaring economy is job growth of zero.

817
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:17,759
Speaker 16: We also saw pretty concerning ticks down based on some

818
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:21,920
Speaker 16: population adjustments to labor force participation rate and to the

819
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 16: employment population ratio that I'm keeping an eye on over

820
00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 16: the next few months to see if those are sustained.

821
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 16: But you know, reports from this morning are that we

822
00:40:29,239 --> 00:40:31,800
Speaker 16: wiped out about four years of gains in both of those,

823
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:35,439
Speaker 16: which from a you know, broader picture perspective, is really

824
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 16: not great. Wage growth is slowing, and as we know,

825
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:42,920
Speaker 16: you know, looking at prices, we saw a big beat

826
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 16: on PCE the week before last, and as the FED

827
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:49,400
Speaker 16: heads into meetings here in the next couple of weeks.

828
00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:51,719
Speaker 16: They are looking at rising prices. You know, oil above

829
00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:54,400
Speaker 16: ninety this morning. Commodity pressure is given the war on

830
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:58,360
Speaker 16: Iran plus a real big bust this morning on jobs.

831
00:40:58,400 --> 00:40:59,280
Speaker 5: It's not a great picture.

832
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 2: Well, that's what I want to answer. What the heck

833
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:03,000
Speaker 2: do you do if you're the Fed here? You look

834
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 2: over the course of a year, zero job growth, and

835
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 2: what else is new today is ninety dollars a barrel

836
00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:09,600
Speaker 2: of oil.

837
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:10,959
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's not just oil.

838
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:13,160
Speaker 16: I mean the number of commodities that come through the

839
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 16: strait of removes. You've got fertilizer, which has already been

840
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:18,960
Speaker 16: affected over the last year by President Trump's tariffs. You

841
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:22,920
Speaker 16: got rare earth minerals affecting clean energy, and other imports.

842
00:41:23,040 --> 00:41:25,400
Speaker 16: I just think the commodity picture is really likely to

843
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 16: show more of what we saw in PCE about.

844
00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:30,680
Speaker 2: Four dollars a gallon gas. We talked to Tom Closer

845
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:32,920
Speaker 2: earlier from Golf. He made that prediction. I mean that

846
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:34,600
Speaker 2: could be on our doorstep any minute.

847
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:36,600
Speaker 16: I think what we saw out of Sentcom yesterday is

848
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 16: that they're expecting this war will not end until September

849
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 16: at the earliest.

850
00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:42,280
Speaker 5: Jet fuel is up massively.

851
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 16: I mean, summer airfare is going to be a problem,

852
00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 16: and so will prices at the pump.

853
00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:48,799
Speaker 14: Yeah, well to that point, we're not at four dollars yet,

854
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 14: but triple A this morning saying the national average is

855
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 14: at about three dollars and thirty two cents a gallon.

856
00:41:54,280 --> 00:41:58,560
Speaker 14: How does this impact the broader consumer spending picture when

857
00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:02,280
Speaker 14: you have Americans paying more for their every day essentials

858
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:04,319
Speaker 14: or does a lot of that have to depend on

859
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 14: the timeline just how long they will be willing to

860
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 14: pay for those things that they need to get along

861
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:10,720
Speaker 14: in their lives.

862
00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:12,319
Speaker 5: We have seen over the past year.

863
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:14,640
Speaker 16: You know, we're about a year out from Liberation Day,

864
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 16: and those tariffs that have ticked on and ticked off,

865
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:19,960
Speaker 16: obviously with the Supreme Court AEPA ruling last or the

866
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:23,160
Speaker 16: week before last, and then President Trump imposing Section one

867
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:26,240
Speaker 16: twenty two tariffs at ten and now at fifteen percent.

868
00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:30,239
Speaker 16: According to Treasuring Secretary Besent, those that passed through takes

869
00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:32,560
Speaker 16: about six to nine months, just given what's on the

870
00:42:32,600 --> 00:42:36,440
Speaker 16: shelves and when it hits these other supply shocks driven

871
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 16: by the war in Iran and these commodity prices, those

872
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:43,359
Speaker 16: will show up considerably faster, and now consumers are going

873
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 16: to be really taking it from both sides, and they

874
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:48,319
Speaker 16: were already struggling to say above board with what we

875
00:42:48,320 --> 00:42:50,359
Speaker 16: were seeing with the tariff picture. So I'm really worried

876
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:52,880
Speaker 16: about pressures, especially on those lower and middle income consumers.

877
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:55,040
Speaker 2: Are you, Liz at Groundwork, are you factoring in or

878
00:42:55,120 --> 00:42:57,440
Speaker 2: is it even possible to quantify the impact of AI.

879
00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:00,040
Speaker 2: Is there a chance that we look back at this

880
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:03,360
Speaker 2: last year and say, oh wow, it's very obvious what happened.

881
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:08,359
Speaker 2: AI changed the job market permanently and brought efficiencies that

882
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:10,360
Speaker 2: we never could have forecasts.

883
00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:12,120
Speaker 16: You know, I think we're seeing some evidence of some

884
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:16,000
Speaker 16: productivity gains in some concentrated sectors, but across the board,

885
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 16: we are not seeing that bear out. You know, I've

886
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:20,240
Speaker 16: seen the estimates from Goldman and Brookings and from others.

887
00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 16: I think what we are looking at it at Groundwork

888
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 16: is are we seeing job quality declines? We are really

889
00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 16: not seeing differences in hours or in.

890
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 5: Pay show up in the job market.

891
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:33,960
Speaker 16: Yet we are seeing in some of those earlier career

892
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:38,280
Speaker 16: workers less hiring in those industries that drive young adult

893
00:43:38,320 --> 00:43:41,239
Speaker 16: labor market outcomes. But so far We're not seeing a

894
00:43:41,320 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 16: ton in AI productivity gains. What I will say is

895
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:48,320
Speaker 16: that a lot of companies are using AI enabled pricing

896
00:43:48,360 --> 00:43:51,359
Speaker 16: techniques which are actually allowing them to grow margins and

897
00:43:51,640 --> 00:43:55,600
Speaker 16: you know, grow productivity in by way of increasing prices,

898
00:43:55,640 --> 00:43:58,080
Speaker 16: and that of course will trickle down to consumers in

899
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:01,000
Speaker 16: unfortunate ways. So I'm not sure we've seen an entire

900
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:04,640
Speaker 16: redo of our economy yet to be determined, I think,

901
00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:07,960
Speaker 16: but from my perspective, we are not seeing evidence of that,

902
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 16: and that is not driving what we're seeing in the

903
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:12,320
Speaker 16: picture of economic growth or the labor market.

904
00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:14,080
Speaker 14: In the final minute we have you, I wanted to

905
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:16,160
Speaker 14: go back to tariff since you did mention it, and

906
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:18,960
Speaker 14: we hear the administration talk a lot about how tariff

907
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:22,040
Speaker 14: revenue is an offset to those tax cuts in the

908
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:23,960
Speaker 14: One Big, Beautiful Bill, and we didn't get to it

909
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:26,080
Speaker 14: today on the program, but there is this murmuring that

910
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:29,839
Speaker 14: we could see of Reconciliation Package two point zero. I'm

911
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:33,239
Speaker 14: wondering what you're gaming out here when it comes to

912
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:36,120
Speaker 14: the fiscal health and the balance sheet of the country.

913
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:39,760
Speaker 14: If we've seen the Supreme Court strike down those broad

914
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:42,800
Speaker 14: based tariffs, but the administration still using other authorities.

915
00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:45,040
Speaker 16: Yeah, that's Section one twenty two authority can be in

916
00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 16: place for about six months, and so we'll see that

917
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 16: play out here over the next six months.

918
00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:51,120
Speaker 5: There are obviously other authorities.

919
00:44:51,160 --> 00:44:53,839
Speaker 16: The administration has announced a number of Section three oh

920
00:44:53,920 --> 00:44:56,600
Speaker 16: one investigations which just take time to play out, and

921
00:44:56,680 --> 00:44:59,359
Speaker 16: you could see Congress kind of reassert their role in

922
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 16: trade and tear policy. You know, I haven't seen appetite

923
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:07,240
Speaker 16: for that on Capitol Hill in my conversations on either

924
00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 16: side of the aisle, so I wouldn't hold our breath

925
00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 16: for that reconciliation package. But from the administrative authorities that

926
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:18,399
Speaker 16: the President has, he seems to have no, no, he's

927
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:20,640
Speaker 16: not holding back on using those, So I think it'll

928
00:45:20,680 --> 00:45:23,040
Speaker 16: be mostly driven by those actions.

929
00:45:23,080 --> 00:45:24,520
Speaker 6: We only have about thirty seconds, Liz.

930
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:25,960
Speaker 2: Could we be in the second half of the year

931
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:29,719
Speaker 2: talking about the benefits of massive tax returns that the

932
00:45:29,760 --> 00:45:32,360
Speaker 2: President has been predicting.

933
00:45:32,080 --> 00:45:34,120
Speaker 16: Not in my opinion, but I think, really, I'm not

934
00:45:34,160 --> 00:45:36,200
Speaker 16: sure if folks will have their tax returns by the

935
00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:38,800
Speaker 16: end of the year given the cuts to the IRS.

936
00:45:39,320 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 16: I mean, there are really slowing down customer service and

937
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:43,359
Speaker 16: processing returns over there.

938
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:45,640
Speaker 2: It's great to have you back, Liz Pancotti, it's been

939
00:45:45,680 --> 00:45:48,440
Speaker 2: too long. Groundwork collaborative. Many thanks for your insights. As

940
00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:50,279
Speaker 2: always listen being part of our conversation.

941
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:54,839
Speaker 6: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

942
00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already an Apple, Spotify,

943
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:01,239
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcast, and you can find

944
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

945
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:06,720
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.