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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast is presented by wind

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Speaker 1: ineligible states. To get started, all you have to do

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Speaker 1: is click on the Action Network link in this episode description. Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's get things started.

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Speaker 2: All right, Here we go fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty

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Speaker 2: thirty five, forty forty five fifty and.

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Speaker 3: A check his clock.

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Speaker 2: Start?

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Speaker 3: Oh my god, Bes, please stop hold it. It's a.

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Speaker 4: It's not passage on the dog in the fight. It's

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Speaker 4: passage of the.

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Speaker 2: What's up degenerate nation. Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 2: Campus Podcast. This is the Week three college football betting preview.

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Speaker 2: I'm stucky and with me as always is Colin Wilson

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Speaker 2: still high off an Arkansas win or if you moved

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Speaker 2: on to Georgia.

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Speaker 3: Southern Woo Pig Suey.

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Speaker 5: Listen, we're gonna get into this is Georgia Southern Arkansas game.

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Speaker 5: There is a lot of mouths defeat, like the Dugger

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Speaker 5: family in Arkansas. There's a lot of moules defeat on

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Speaker 5: this razorback roster. So we'll get into it.

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Speaker 2: I uh, of course for this episode, I am donning

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Speaker 2: my Georgia Southern new shirt, so we'll get into there.

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Speaker 2: We have a lot to get to with marquee games.

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Speaker 2: We FCEs or no, we're gonna take out the trash

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Speaker 2: oh boy dumpster diving. More on that later. We will,

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Speaker 2: you know, cover some rapid We'll cover a bunch of

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Speaker 2: games in rapid fire. We have a Friday night game

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Speaker 2: to talk about, favorite Monday Line, underdogs, favorite favorites, favorite bats.

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Speaker 2: All that to come. And by the way, I can't

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Speaker 2: wait to talk Florida Alabama and I came here for

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Speaker 2: that game to happen, mainly because you know, the three

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Speaker 2: thirty CBS game is back and the sec three thirty

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Speaker 2: CBS game and they'll be fans. We haven't seen that

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Speaker 2: since twenty nineteen. I can't wait. The swamp should be rowlly.

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Speaker 2: We'll get to that game as well. But Let's start

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Speaker 2: with where we always start, look ahead or look.

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Speaker 3: Away, hangovers, sleepers, and the dreaded sandwich spot.

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Speaker 6: Is it time to look ahead or look away?

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Speaker 2: If you're a first time listener, thank you first of all.

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Speaker 2: But this is a segment where we look ahead to

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Speaker 2: next week slate and determine, okay, could a team maybe

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Speaker 2: get caught peeking ahead a little bit? It also informs

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Speaker 2: us of a potential second half play. A team might

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Speaker 2: not want to show anything. They might take their starters

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Speaker 2: out a little early, go a little vanilla, a little

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Speaker 2: earlier than usual. Got three spots here. We'll start with

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Speaker 2: the aforementioned Arkansas Razorbacks and Georgia Southern Eagles at wind Bet.

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Speaker 2: Arkansas is a twenty three and a half point favorite.

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Speaker 2: I will have to start here. Look, I took Georgia.

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Speaker 2: There's a twenty four that popped up in a couple places

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Speaker 2: during the week. I took twenty four. I would wait

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Speaker 2: for twenty four, see if you can get it. I

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Speaker 2: think that'll probably be bouncing back and forth. Will be

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Speaker 2: opportunities to get a twenty four at some point again

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Speaker 2: this week. But I make this number just under three

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Speaker 2: touchdowns and primarily because I haven't done much with Georgia

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Speaker 2: Southern after their first two games. So the first two

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Speaker 2: games have been really ugly, right, they barely escaped Gardner

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Speaker 2: Webb and then they got blown out by Florida Atlantic.

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Speaker 2: But if you dig a little deeper into both games.

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Speaker 2: Against Gardener web they started Amari Jones at quarterback, who

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Speaker 2: was a running back for too late. Very talented running

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Speaker 2: back who will do a lot of He could do

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Speaker 2: a lot of damage in their backfield, but he has

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Speaker 2: no skills as a passer, no skills. Is a pitcher

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Speaker 2: like he can't pitch the ball in their option like

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Speaker 2: it was just a mess. Then last year last week

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Speaker 2: they started as they started Cam Ransom and Cam Ransom

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Speaker 2: against Florida Atlantic actually had some success early on. They

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Speaker 2: went up six nothing late in that first half. Ransom

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Speaker 2: is dry, Ransom is driving up six nothing. In midway

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Speaker 2: through the second quarter, he gets hurt, comes out of

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Speaker 2: the game. They go with Sam Kennerson, whose skill set

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Speaker 2: is more of you know, he's fast, more of a

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Speaker 2: past their different kind of skill set. He fumbles inside

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Speaker 2: the tent and a chance to go fourteen to nothing

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Speaker 2: late in that second quarter, and then it just all

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Speaker 2: went downhill from there. Cam Rnson eventually came back in,

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Speaker 2: but he was hobbled and the game was already out

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Speaker 2: of hand. So they had another quarterback, Justin Tomlin, who's

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Speaker 2: a projected starting quarterback. He was academically ineligible for the

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Speaker 2: first two games. He's back this week. Actually have a

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Speaker 2: quarterback who could run their option offense, JD. King. They're

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Speaker 2: projected starting running back. They have a lot of talent

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Speaker 2: running back. He could be back this week as well.

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Speaker 2: And then obviously have to mention the spot. I mean, Arkansas,

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Speaker 2: I think is still partying after that win against Texas.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if the SEC is gonna levy another fine,

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Speaker 2: but there's still parades going on and just jubilants. And

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Speaker 2: by the way, Arkansas, who do they have on deck?

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Speaker 2: I mean they have Texas A and M two more

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Speaker 2: ranked conference opponents after that, So we'll see if they

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Speaker 2: come out focused. But even if they don't and they

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Speaker 2: build a big lead, hey, let's stay healthy for what

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Speaker 2: we have ahead. Let's not show too much. And it's

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Speaker 2: just difficult to cover twenty four against a slow, slogging

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Speaker 2: option offense like Georgia Southern and Georgia Southern, by the way,

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Speaker 2: when they're catching three touchdown has have an absolutely money

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Speaker 2: as of all the service academies who run the triple

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Speaker 2: option historically. So it's just it's a tough number to

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Speaker 2: cover because there's limited possessions, assuming that they can actually

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Speaker 2: do something on offense, right they couldn't against Farid Atlantic

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Speaker 2: when Ransom got hurt, but they're gonna have Tom Win

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Speaker 2: back there who could who actually understands the offense. I

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Speaker 2: think that they'll be able to put together some drives,

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Speaker 2: which even more important than getting points is just taking

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Speaker 2: eight nine minutes off the clock when you're catching twenty four.

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Speaker 2: So the spot is obviously awful for Arkansas Sandwiches, your

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Speaker 2: classic sandwich spot. But Georgia Southern gets their quarterback back.

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Speaker 2: They were embarrassed last week. If Georgia Southern won this.

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't be shocked if Georgia Southern won this game,

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Speaker 2: just because you know, I don't think they're gonna win.

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Speaker 2: But I mean, when you're playing a triple option offense,

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Speaker 2: if it's able to function at a high level and

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Speaker 2: take ten to twelve minutes off the clock on a drive,

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Speaker 2: that limits the game increases the variance I mean Georgia

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Speaker 2: Southern went into Florida as thirty point underdogs in one

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Speaker 2: outright in what twenty twelve, twenty thirteen, they ran this

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Speaker 2: the whole what do we always play the ten horn?

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Speaker 2: They ran for three hundred and twenty yards against Alabama

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Speaker 2: average seven yards per carry.

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Speaker 4: Y'all don't remember the Georgia Southern game, do you?

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Speaker 5: They run through our ass like shit through a ten

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Speaker 5: horn man, and we could not stop them.

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Speaker 2: So it can happened. Look at Army did to Oklahoma.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 2: You limit the game as an option offense. So if

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Speaker 2: I was an Arkansas fan, if they come out flat

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Speaker 2: and Georgia Southern has a ten minute drive to open

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Speaker 2: the game and scores a touchdown, I would get a

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Speaker 2: little squirrely, is all. I'll say. I'm taking the points here,

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Speaker 2: I'll have my Georgia Southern gear on, off the wash

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Speaker 2: this shirt again, and I'm rolling with the Eagles. That's

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Speaker 2: my case. Now for your rebuttals, sir, woo pig Sully,

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Speaker 2: absolute dumpster, fined up.

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Speaker 4: I don't know how we win a game the rest

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Speaker 4: of the year, just blowing program up. Give us a

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Speaker 4: death sentence.

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Speaker 3: Collins talking razorback football.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, well in the world.

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Speaker 5: In the words of Will Ferrell from Old School, You're yeah,

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Speaker 5: I like you. You're crazy, man, but but I like you.

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Speaker 5: I don't how did you get on this tangents that

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Speaker 5: they could win. This is not the Chad Morris era.

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Speaker 5: This is this is not Brett Bilma.

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Speaker 2: I was peeking back at some a little nostalgia. I

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Speaker 2: was looking at some old box scores of Georgia Southern

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Speaker 2: and when they played SEC teams, and I was remembering

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Speaker 2: that floridagain. I think there are twenty eight and a

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Speaker 2: half point underdogs when they won.

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Speaker 5: All right, So I'm going to acknowledge the fact that

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Speaker 5: this is a great spot for Georgian John.

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Speaker 2: I make them my favorite. Put them in the money

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Speaker 2: line under the Barlayler.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't know you and I have already generated

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Speaker 5: enough words on UMass and Yukon.

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Speaker 4: I'm not sure if we could handle this.

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Speaker 5: But listen, there's before I get into like how I

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Speaker 5: feel about the game and tech technical stuff and numbers

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Speaker 5: and all that. This is a different era at Arkansas.

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Speaker 5: We just don't lose games like this anymore. That was

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Speaker 5: a Chad Morris thing. That was a Brett Beilama thing,

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Speaker 5: you know, and to get into what Sam Pittman said

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Speaker 5: at his presser this week, he knew for a fact

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Speaker 5: that the Razorbacks could not prepare for Georgia Southern in

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Speaker 5: one week's practice.

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Speaker 4: He said in his.

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Speaker 5: Presser, outright, we already put a total of four days

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Speaker 5: work into the triple option into Georgia Southern specifically, and

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Speaker 5: we knew Tomlin was suspended for the first two games,

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Speaker 5: and we reviewed all the film on Tomlin from last year.

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Speaker 5: Pittman said it flat out out and I said this

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Speaker 5: last week on the podcast, he laid out exactly what

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Speaker 5: he's going to do against Texas.

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Speaker 4: He said, I'm taking Robinson away.

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Speaker 5: So Pittman came out in the press for the other

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Speaker 5: day and he said, here's what we're going to do.

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Speaker 5: There's going to be zero dive in the A gap,

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Speaker 5: zero fullback dive, and there's going to be maximum contain

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Speaker 5: on our edges so that Tomlin has to make the pitch.

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Speaker 5: Tomlin was great in making the pitch last year had

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Speaker 5: some unbelievable film, But that's where we're going to drive

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Speaker 5: everything because we want to push everything to the outside

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Speaker 5: for our unbelievable linebacker corp that bumperpool and Grant Morgan

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Speaker 5: that's all over the place and can get out there

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Speaker 5: and make the tackle. Pittman has put a focus and

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Speaker 5: the defense on a focus to take away the dive,

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Speaker 5: put in contain and make the pitch. Make the pitch,

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Speaker 5: make the pitch. That's all he said. So this will

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Speaker 5: get extended to the outside. It'll be a side, sideline

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Speaker 5: to sideline game. It's not going to be a very

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Speaker 5: vertical game for Georgia Southern. And I agree with you

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Speaker 5: and pace. I mean, they're they're extremely slow. They always

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Speaker 5: are with the triple option. Arkansas was really not that

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Speaker 5: fast anymore. Last year they were tenth and tempo this

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Speaker 5: year so far just first and plays per minute. But

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Speaker 5: I just wouldn't be surprised to not see our defense,

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Speaker 5: our first string defense, and they're in the second half.

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Speaker 5: And I think you're completely justified in saying this is

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Speaker 5: the spot and this is the number, because I make

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Speaker 5: it around twenty two. Not a bad play to take

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Speaker 5: Georgia Southern. I think the second half is going to

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Speaker 5: be a lot of scoring. I think the first half,

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Speaker 5: and I remember I've said this about Arkansas, they get

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Speaker 5: off to terrible starts. So what I like in this

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Speaker 5: game is I know it's slow, but I like the over.

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Speaker 5: And the reason is Georgia Southern defense is horrific one

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Speaker 5: hundred and seventeenth and allowing explosive plays one hundred and

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Speaker 5: twenty fourth and defensive passing success rate ninety second in coverage.

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Speaker 5: Arkansas is going to play a full four quarters and

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Speaker 5: they're going to try to score as many points as

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Speaker 5: possible even after the starters leave.

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Speaker 4: I like the over in this game. Georgia Southern's going

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Speaker 4: to get their points.

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Speaker 5: I actually do think they're actually probably have fourteen points

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Speaker 5: going into half. Arkansas is going to start slow. It's

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Speaker 5: probably going to look a little shaky in the first quarter.

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Speaker 5: It always does with Arkansas. But we will get our points.

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Speaker 5: The starters will be out by the second half, but

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Speaker 5: the tempo and the hung or to score points from

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Speaker 5: our second string is not going to go away. And

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Speaker 5: this I have full confidence in our offense scoring enough

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Speaker 5: to get this to the over.

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Speaker 2: It's easier said than done. You know, stop the dive,

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Speaker 2: stop the pitch. I mean it's it's it's a good plan.

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Speaker 2: By the way, here's a trivia question that I don't

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Speaker 2: know the answer to great trivia question, asked her. I

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Speaker 2: don't even know the answer. When is the last time

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Speaker 2: that Arkansas faced the triple option?

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Speaker 4: Like you remember it does Coastal Carolina County.

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Speaker 2: If they have a varied option attack, didn't they lose

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Speaker 2: the Coastal Calan at home beat.

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Speaker 4: Them by one point? All right, we got it done

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Speaker 4: against Jamie Chad. What was a rough game.

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Speaker 2: Coastal caln Is stunk. They were like, oh and ten too,

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Speaker 2: get ready?

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Speaker 4: Get ready? All right?

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Speaker 2: Moving on to our second spot here, it's a another

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Speaker 2: game that I played at win Bet. Vanderbilt is a

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Speaker 2: eleven eleven and a half at various points of the day,

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Speaker 2: eleven eleven and a half point underdog at win bet

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Speaker 2: at home against Stanford. This is obviously a terrible spot

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Speaker 2: for Stanford, similar to Arkansas. Right, they have a huge

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Speaker 2: upset win last week against usc which nobody saw coming.

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Speaker 2: Tanner McKee's first start, he looked really good, led to

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Speaker 2: the firing of Clay Helton. About time and on deck Stanford,

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Speaker 2: here's what they have on deck. I mean this is

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Speaker 2: identical to Arkansas. Is three conference games against ranked opponents.

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Speaker 2: Stanford will host UCLA host Oregon and then go to

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Speaker 2: Arizona State. So a couple things are at play here.

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Speaker 2: Does Stanford you know they're going, you know, to Vanderbilt.

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Speaker 2: This game is at night in Nashville. Do they come

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Speaker 2: out a little flat our? You know, David Shawl at

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Speaker 2: times could be a little conservative. If they get any

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Speaker 2: type of lead, do they go a little vanilla? Does

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Speaker 2: that open up the back door? If they're up seventeen

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Speaker 2: late Vanderbilt came they were now fourteen to nothing against

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Speaker 2: Colorado State College. That didn't put them away. They had

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Speaker 2: two yards per play fewer, but they ended up winning.

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Speaker 2: I think it's something to build on for a program

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Speaker 2: that's been starving for something to build on. You know,

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Speaker 2: they're in a great spot here, and I wouldn't be

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Speaker 2: shocked if they won this game out right, honestly, it

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Speaker 2: is just a horrific spot for Stanford. We'll see if

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Speaker 2: they're focused from the beginning. But I also show a

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Speaker 2: bit of line value on any so I took the.

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Speaker 6: Doors anchored down what.

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Speaker 2: Chadow do you think this game's on?

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Speaker 4: It's on Jefferson Pilot eleven eight. I would make it.

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Speaker 2: I thought it was gonna be at night it's on ESPNY. Okay,

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Speaker 2: I thought I was gonna be spending too much time

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Speaker 2: on SEC never because I'm assuming at four o'clock one

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Speaker 2: of my TV is gonna have to be on Georgia Southern.

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Speaker 2: But what do you see here?

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Speaker 4: I don't understand this line at all. It makes zero

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Speaker 4: sense to me.

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Speaker 5: They got just two weeks ago, Stanford gets obliterated by

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Speaker 5: the explosive play with Kansas State and Arlington and they

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Speaker 5: allowed USC go and check the box score. USC lost

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Speaker 5: that game, but had a seventy three percent success rate

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Speaker 5: in rushing attempts, and now Stanford is a huge favorite

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Speaker 5: on the road. They stuffed three of thirty three rushing

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Speaker 5: attempts by USC, and now they're a favorite on the road.

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Speaker 5: I'm so like stupefied by this number. I've never I

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Speaker 5: couldn't believe how far off it is. But yeah, a

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Speaker 5: couple of notes on Stanford here. They you know, they're

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Speaker 5: they're ranks for Kansas State and USC. They're bottom ten

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Speaker 5: and offensive line yards bottom ten and pass blocking rushing

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Speaker 5: success rate. On the defensive side of the ball, they're

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Speaker 5: bottom ten and rushing success rate special teams and then

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Speaker 5: plays permitted. They're extremely slow, So you know, where are

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Speaker 5: they positive? The only thing that I could find in

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Speaker 5: their advanced numbers, they're forty first in coverage ranks, which

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Speaker 5: is you know, okay, I mean I still don't understand

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Speaker 5: this double digit on the road spread. So Vanderbilt limited

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Speaker 5: Colorado State to two point six points per trip past

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Speaker 5: the forty.

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Speaker 4: They played great.

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Speaker 5: It's a good bounce back off of East Tennessee State.

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Speaker 5: Go on the road, get this win. And they held

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Speaker 5: Colorado State below the nationalanverage, finishing drives below the national average,

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Speaker 5: and two plus first downs, and the Combinders.

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Speaker 4: Were great in passing downs.

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Speaker 5: They had six point four yards per attempt, They owned

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Speaker 5: time of possession over thirty five minutes. And that's just

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Speaker 5: gonna be Vanderbilt ball. And you know, Clark Lee, think

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Speaker 5: about this, Clark Lee at Vanderbilt, he's no stranger to Stanford.

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Speaker 5: I mean, he's gone up against a David Shaw offense

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Speaker 5: multiple times while he was at Notre Dame. So you know,

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Speaker 5: in twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen, Stanford lost both of

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Speaker 5: those games against Notre Dame and they only scored a.

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Speaker 4: Combined forty one points.

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Speaker 5: So how important is it for the trees to travel

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Speaker 5: and to win this game when it's in between USC

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Speaker 5: and UCLA. I've been waiting all week for Vanderbilt at thirteen.

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Speaker 5: I don't think it's gonna come. I think this will

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Speaker 5: come crash back down to probably around eleven, probably settles eleven.

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Speaker 5: So I'm not gonna hold my breath for thirteen. Just

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Speaker 5: gonna play with Vanderbilt. And you know, if I lose,

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Speaker 5: I lose.

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Speaker 4: But I just do not understand this number whatsoever.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean seeing East Tennessee State win at Vandy

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Speaker 2: twenty three to three is scary, but it was the

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Speaker 2: season opener with a new coach, so I'll give him

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Speaker 2: a pass a little. I agree, I'm rolling with the

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Speaker 2: home dog here. The last part we have is the

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Speaker 2: spot I will not be rolling with. That is Toledo.

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Speaker 2: You know, off that emotional loss at Notre Dame in

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Speaker 2: again they could have won. Really, it was really impressed

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Speaker 2: with Toledo and really a coin flip game they lost

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Speaker 2: by three, but just a hard fought, emotional game. You

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Speaker 2: come back and you got to take on an ozho

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Speaker 2: and two Colorado State team. Owing to Colorado State team,

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Speaker 2: they lost to an FCS team and Vanderbilt, who we

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Speaker 2: just talked about at home to start the season. Toledo

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Speaker 2: on deck. They have Ball State, the raiding mac Chaps.

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Speaker 2: They have revenge on their minds from a game they

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Speaker 2: probably should have won last year. This is coming from

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Speaker 2: someone who had won Ball State to win the mat.

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Speaker 2: So are they gonna get caught napping here? I just

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Speaker 2: can't trust as Colorado State team win be Colorado State

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Speaker 2: is a fourteen point underdog at Toledo. I think I'm

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Speaker 2: still baffled, just baffled by the hire of Steve Adasio.

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Speaker 2: I mean, what did he ever do at Boston College?

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Speaker 4: Much better than this guys being dudes?

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Speaker 2: I think he was thirty four and thirty four during

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Speaker 2: his time there. I don't know. The man could be

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Speaker 2: a great guy. He's sixty two. It seemed to me

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Speaker 2: like he was looking for a paycheck and a place

358
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Speaker 2: to retire. It's not like he's trying to rebuild this

359
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Speaker 2: Colorado State team. From the pressers I'd retweeted some of them,

360
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Speaker 2: it seems like he might have already lost the team.

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Speaker 2: He's already saying I'll go find you know, fifteen guys

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Speaker 2: on campus right now, I'll go to war with them.

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Speaker 2: Let's look at the positives. Why don't we focus on

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Speaker 2: the positives? We had a couple explosive plays. Why don't

365
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Speaker 2: you talk about I mean they lost to enough Zes

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Speaker 2: team and then Vanderbilt, So I don't know if it's

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Speaker 2: going too well. It's a pass for me. But if anything,

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Speaker 2: I would I would play to led any thoughts.

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Speaker 5: As a good one hundred and fifty mile radius a

370
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Speaker 5: round for Collins where there's lots of acreage you can buy,

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Speaker 5: have a farm, retire peaceful life looking at the Rockies.

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Speaker 5: Maybe that was a Dazzios play on the whole time.

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Speaker 5: But the more I read about Colorado State, I mean,

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Speaker 5: they're missing a lot of players in this game. Safety

375
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Speaker 5: t One Francis is a leading tackler, he's questionable. Linebacker

376
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Speaker 5: Tavian Brown, safety Logan Stuart. They're both out for the

377
00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:03,600
Speaker 5: first half in this game because they were called for

378
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:06,840
Speaker 5: targeting in the previous game. Those players have accumulated one

379
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Speaker 5: hundred and nine snaps this season. So you know, a

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Speaker 5: Dazzio came out and then made the announcement that wide

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Speaker 5: receiver Dante Wright is questionable for this game.

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Speaker 4: We're not gonna know. He's a game time decision.

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Speaker 5: He's second on the team in targets and he averages

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Speaker 5: fourteen point six yards per catch. So Dazio's you know

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Speaker 5: says I think on Wednesday after practice says we are

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Speaker 5: going to be a very vulnerable team in the first half.

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Speaker 4: Hmm.

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Speaker 5: You know, Toledo outscored Notre Dame in the first half.

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00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:35,840
Speaker 5: They posted twenty eight on Norfolk State before halftime. So

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Speaker 5: that's what their record is. And first half is the season.

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Speaker 5: So do I expect the Rockets to come out hot?

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Speaker 4: Listen?

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Speaker 5: You know, Candle can take this one of two ways.

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Speaker 5: You can be upset about how the Notre Dame game ended,

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Speaker 5: or you can come out red hot, pissed and just

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Speaker 5: light the world on fire. And so that's kind of

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Speaker 5: where I'm leaning towards what Toledo is gonna do. Colorado

398
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Speaker 5: State is one hundred and nineteenth and finishing drives on defense.

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Speaker 5: If you want me to hammer home how much I

400
00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:00,920
Speaker 5: think Toledo has an advantage here. Florida State is near

401
00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:03,440
Speaker 5: dead last and stopping people once they cross the forty

402
00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:06,560
Speaker 5: yard line. Toledo right now is seventeenth and finishing drives

403
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:09,679
Speaker 5: on offense. The Rockets will score on every possession they

404
00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:12,600
Speaker 5: get past the forty. I like the fact that Colorado

405
00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:14,960
Speaker 5: State is missing a bunch of key players at wide

406
00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:18,240
Speaker 5: receiver and their leading tackler all in the first half.

407
00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:20,639
Speaker 5: So if you can find you know, if you can

408
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:22,840
Speaker 5: find a seven out there, it's a little hard to find.

409
00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:24,639
Speaker 5: I had to go to some pretty extreme measures to

410
00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:27,119
Speaker 5: get one myself today. I do like Toledo in the

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00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:29,200
Speaker 5: first half. I think they're a full game play also,

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00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:31,199
Speaker 5: but if the Dazio is out there saying we're going

413
00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:33,560
Speaker 5: to be the most unable team ever in the first half,

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Speaker 5: that's enough for me to buy Toledo at their number

415
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:37,119
Speaker 5: even seven and a half.

416
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Speaker 2: Yeah, this program is a mess right now. I mean

417
00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,600
Speaker 2: I'm not a fan of never happened a fan of

418
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:46,280
Speaker 2: Toddson Taylor, their quarterback to Temple transfer. I was screaming

419
00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:49,200
Speaker 2: last year in their opener when at Dazzio started him

420
00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:53,119
Speaker 2: over Patrick O'Brien, and then Patrick O'Brien went and transferred.

421
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Speaker 2: It's just an absolute mess. And now, before we move

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00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:02,360
Speaker 2: on to the Marque games of the weekend, a quick

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00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,360
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435
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:38,560
Speaker 2: Action Network link in this episode. Description. Must be twenty

436
00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:41,200
Speaker 2: one or older to gamble, No one to stop before

437
00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:45,400
Speaker 2: you start gambling problem Call one eight hundred gambler. All right,

438
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:49,640
Speaker 2: let's get back to the show, obviously, with the marquee

439
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:50,920
Speaker 2: games of the.

440
00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:57,880
Speaker 6: Weekend, it's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check

441
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 6: out the marquee matchups we'll all end up bedding for

442
00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:02,119
Speaker 6: week three.

443
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 2: We have to start with Alabama Florida at wind beat.

444
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:11,120
Speaker 2: Alabama is a fourteen and a half point favorite over

445
00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:16,800
Speaker 2: under sixty. The last time Alabama visited the Swamp. These

446
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:18,960
Speaker 2: seems have played a couple times over the past few years,

447
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:21,640
Speaker 2: but they've always been in Yes c Champishi, they're always

448
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:24,720
Speaker 2: in Atlanta. The last time Alabama visited the Swamp two

449
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:28,880
Speaker 2: thousand and eleven, and I think Alabama role Trent Richardson

450
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 2: ran all over Florida throwback there. So it's been ten

451
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:35,640
Speaker 2: years since Alabama visited the Swamp, said three thirty CBS

452
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:37,919
Speaker 2: crowd should be wild. I can't wait to watch that

453
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:42,399
Speaker 2: the atmosphere. We recorded our podcast earlier this week and

454
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 2: we said, you know, we were looking at some of

455
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:47,879
Speaker 2: the lines. This was Sunday. If you listen to our

456
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,040
Speaker 2: podcast earlier in the week where we recapped the weekend

457
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,200
Speaker 2: and play some of your voicemails. By the way, I

458
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 2: don't forget about the voicemails.

459
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:56,600
Speaker 4: Nine bad beats nine.

460
00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 2: Five nine bad beats if you need to call scream

461
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 2: event this weekend. But we were saying, you know, we

462
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:06,160
Speaker 2: talked about that game for a second. I said, man,

463
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:08,200
Speaker 2: I really want to just get Florida over two touchdowns.

464
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:09,520
Speaker 2: And at the time we were looking at the line and

465
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 2: it was thirteen thirteen and a half. You know, throughout

466
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 2: the week I was watching the line. I think he

467
00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:16,840
Speaker 2: grabbed a juice seventeen, which I wish I did. I

468
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,399
Speaker 2: was waiting to see where it went. I noticed it

469
00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 2: coming back down. I was like, man, this thing might

470
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:23,640
Speaker 2: hit fourteen. Don't think it's ever going to get to seventeen.

471
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:28,359
Speaker 2: So I went out and grabbed a fifteen myself. I

472
00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:30,920
Speaker 2: make this, you know, around eleven and a half eleven.

473
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,399
Speaker 2: And there's some things to like about Florida and some

474
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 2: things to be worried about. So I mean, when I

475
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 2: look at this game, you know, these two teams played

476
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,159
Speaker 2: last year in a shootout when we were also on Florida.

477
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 2: Catch your two touchdowns and covered fairly easily. Both of

478
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:47,680
Speaker 2: these teams are very different offense offensively, and this will

479
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 2: be Bryce Young's first road start in a hostile environment,

480
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:51,879
Speaker 2: so that's something to keep you wrong. He passed his

481
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 2: desk with flying colors against Miami, but this is a

482
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 2: little different animal, going to the swamp and playing a

483
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 2: better Florida team. But we know the Alabama defense is

484
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 2: excellent Florida. What we have to watch for here is,

485
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:08,120
Speaker 2: and this is the biggest question, is who is going

486
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 2: to play quarterback. Their rushing attack has been awesome this

487
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 2: year and it's been explosive, and Emery Jones has been

488
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:18,239
Speaker 2: shaky as a passer. And if you look at their

489
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 2: passing SATs, they've had three three passes for one hundred

490
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 2: and sixty yards. The rest of their passes five and

491
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:29,919
Speaker 2: a half yards average, not great, So the passing attacks erratic.

492
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 2: Dan Mullen has to come up with a game plan

493
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 2: here to attack Alabama on the ground, and he's one

494
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 2: of the best in the business of doing that, coming

495
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 2: up with creative runs and you know, reverses, trick plays.

496
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,159
Speaker 2: You're gonna see the whole kitchen sink here. But how

497
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:46,399
Speaker 2: much is Richardson gonna play? He was dealing with a

498
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 2: hamstring injury this year, but the electric freshman just electric

499
00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 2: every time he touches the ball like Cam Newton vibes

500
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:55,640
Speaker 2: at Auburn. How much is he gonna play? Is the question.

501
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 2: They've been rotating. Emory Jones's four picks already not as

502
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:01,439
Speaker 2: explosive of a runner, but there's that. I think he

503
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:05,679
Speaker 2: can use that uncertainty to his advantage. And because Florida

504
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 2: is going to have to run the ball, they're gonna

505
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 2: have to have success with richards and I think you

506
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:12,199
Speaker 2: see him a ton. This might look like you know

507
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 2: those Dan mullen man. When Alabama at Alabama, Mississippi State

508
00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:18,479
Speaker 2: came back in like twenty fifteen in Alabama won by

509
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 2: like three or four, when I think missiv State was

510
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:23,280
Speaker 2: rec number one with Dak Prescott. Dak Prescott would run

511
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 2: the ball twenty six times, twenty five, twenty six times

512
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:29,200
Speaker 2: a game for that Mississippi State team. I think there's

513
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 2: a chance you could see a similar game plan with

514
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 2: Richardson with lots of designed runs and they're just gonna

515
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 2: unleash him here with a chance to beat Alabama. So

516
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 2: a lot of uncertainty, the quarterback situation, still shaky passing attack.

517
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 2: We'll see what Saban comes up with to try and

518
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 2: shut down this rushing attack. I'm sure you know it's

519
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 2: not just gonna be a hey, we're handing it off

520
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:52,719
Speaker 2: kind of a rushing attack. But for me, this is

521
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:55,200
Speaker 2: just a numbers play. I wanted over two touchdowns and

522
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:57,679
Speaker 2: I took it. Chomp, What are your thoughts?

523
00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:01,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, it's nice hitting the nickel openers. I saw

524
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:03,320
Speaker 5: seventeen and a half and by the time I fired

525
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:05,920
Speaker 5: there was a seventeen. So yeah, but this is a

526
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,160
Speaker 5: number that I would actually play all the way down

527
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:08,639
Speaker 5: to thirteen.

528
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 4: So even if he got fourteen and a half or fifteen,

529
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:11,719
Speaker 4: I think that's pretty good.

530
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:14,679
Speaker 5: Mullen mentioned that Anthony Richardson is receiving treatment for his

531
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:16,960
Speaker 5: tweaked hamstring that he had on one of his touchdown

532
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:18,200
Speaker 5: runs the other day.

533
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:20,200
Speaker 4: He expected him to practice this week.

534
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:24,160
Speaker 5: He did, and then yesterday, yesterday being Wednesday, after practice,

535
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 5: he gave positive remarks to the media, said that Richardson's

536
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:29,160
Speaker 5: going to be a okay, so all clear on that front.

537
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 5: Richardson has had these numbers are just they're unbelievable. I mean,

538
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:35,680
Speaker 5: nine rushes on the season for an average of twenty

539
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:40,480
Speaker 5: five yards per eleven point nine yards after contact after contact,

540
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 5: and he's already generated ten misstackles on nine runs.

541
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 2: You know.

542
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 5: Emery Jones, like you said, he's going to get the start,

543
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 5: and he's generated half as many mistackles as total yards

544
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 5: and double the attempts as Richardson. So when we're talking

545
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:58,160
Speaker 5: about productivity, Richardson's doing twice what Emory is and half

546
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 5: the attempts. From a passing perspective, Jones now has three

547
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 5: big time throws on the season, but he has six

548
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 5: turnover worthy plays. You're not supposed to have double many

549
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:09,400
Speaker 5: turnover worthy plays and you have big time throws. Richardson

550
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 5: has the same number of big time throws. He has three,

551
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 5: but he has zero turnover worthy plays. The kid is

552
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 5: my god? Is he the next coming of Tim Tebow?

553
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,359
Speaker 5: I mean, these numbers are when you look at him,

554
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 5: they just jump off the paper. It's just his average

555
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 5: depth of target is twenty four yards. Of his five incompletions,

556
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:28,359
Speaker 5: he's had two drops. So I mean, just the numbers

557
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 5: are just bonkers. I mean, I can't wait to see

558
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 5: him play against against his defense and the focus for Saban.

559
00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:35,639
Speaker 5: He was really pissed off earlier this week when he

560
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 5: came out in his press conference about the penalties. He's

561
00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:40,639
Speaker 5: already had seventeen this year for one hundred and seventy

562
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 5: six yards. That's double the amount of penalties that the

563
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 5: team the twenty twenty team had last year through two

564
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 5: games against MISSOO and Texas A and M, so there's

565
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 5: a lot of sloppiness going on. It's really, you know,

566
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 5: it's really got Saved's attention. Savan emphasized the Florida offensive line.

567
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 5: They are second in the Nation and line yards that

568
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 5: would give Alabama a real problem considering Chris for Allen

569
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 5: is out for the season. Will Anderson another edge rusher.

570
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 5: He's day to day, expected to play, but banged up

571
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:09,520
Speaker 5: with a knee issue. That leaves you know, Chris Braswell

572
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 5: and Drew Sanders with duties at the edge, you know,

573
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:15,600
Speaker 5: very inexperienced, and you're gonna at leash Anthony Richardson on them.

574
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 5: Corner Josh job is expected to play, but I mean

575
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 5: he's been targeted six times so far the season.

576
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 4: He's he's dinged up already.

577
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,160
Speaker 5: You know, Florida is if we go to the other

578
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:26,840
Speaker 5: side of the ball, because I think that's where the worry.

579
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 5: If you're gonna lay Florida, you're worried about Grantham and

580
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:32,359
Speaker 5: you're worried about the defense. And Florida is seventh in

581
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 5: defensive pass rush. And that is a really good mark

582
00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 5: against an Alabama offensive line that is still reeling from

583
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:43,280
Speaker 5: essentially ejecting their entire offensive line into the NFL. Center

584
00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 5: Darian Dalcourt and right right tackle Chris Owens. Now Chris

585
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 5: Owens was trying to be the center. He's been on

586
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 5: the team for six years. And continues to have, you know,

587
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 5: bad numbers and blocking. The line isn't holding up that

588
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,479
Speaker 5: well in pass rush situations. And now Florida comes in

589
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:00,200
Speaker 5: already top ten and pass rush Alabama's eighty three and

590
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 5: pass blocking per PFF. That's not a good combination. Florida

591
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 5: is going to have their way with this offensive line.

592
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 4: Bryce Young. If you look at it from a high level,

593
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 4: if you just pull out.

594
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 5: Some stats, he said, oh, Bryce Young seven touchdowns and

595
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 5: zero interceptions, the kids doing well. Not really, he has

596
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 5: three big time throws and three turnover worthy plays. It's

597
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:20,440
Speaker 5: really a lot of him dumping it off side to

598
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:23,960
Speaker 5: side and letting the letting the just most unbelievable playmakers

599
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 5: in all of college football do all the work. So

600
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 5: the question is is is Bryce Young going to throw downfield?

601
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 5: He's only had ten passing attempts past twenty yards. This

602
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 5: is what just shocks the hell out of me. And

603
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 5: maybe it's my design because Florida's secondary is not very good.

604
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:40,800
Speaker 5: But Bryce Young has only attempted ten passes past twenty yards.

605
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 5: He's only completed.

606
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 4: One of them.

607
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:45,959
Speaker 5: He's one of ten and passes over twenty yards. So

608
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 5: we'll see if Saban has been holding back. If Bill

609
00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:50,600
Speaker 5: O'Brien's been holding back, or if they're going to continue

610
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 5: to run twelve just for the running game and for

611
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 5: max protection, we'll see. So although you would know from

612
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:57,600
Speaker 5: the scoreboard, but this Bamon team is just like, you know,

613
00:29:57,600 --> 00:29:59,760
Speaker 5: they're a shade of what they were in twenty twenty

614
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 5: and Young has been unsuccessful and throwing deep. The penalties

615
00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 5: are egregious. The offensive line is a big reason they're

616
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 5: eighty second havoc allowed. I mean, this hasn't heard of

617
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 5: with Alabama. So Richardson and Jones, they're gonna have a

618
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 5: lot of success from Florida moving the ball on the ground,

619
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 5: which is going to create downfill passes in the second

620
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:16,200
Speaker 5: half against Bama.

621
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:18,320
Speaker 4: I like Florida. I like the points.

622
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 5: You know, this is one of those games I need to,

623
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 5: you know, reserve my judgment a little bit because I'm

624
00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:25,719
Speaker 5: pretty crazy about this Anthony Richardson kid. But yeah, Florida

625
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 5: all the way, even if it gets down past fourteen,

626
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:28,520
Speaker 5: I'd still take it at thirteen.

627
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, we have to be careful with some

628
00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 2: of the numbers with Florida because they've played you know,

629
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 2: two subpar teams. I mean they were FBS teams. Some

630
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 2: of the Alabama numbers are troubling, but it's only two games.

631
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 2: But from a numbers perspective pre season, I would have

632
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:45,760
Speaker 2: liked Florida over two touchdowns. You had this Richardson in

633
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 2: Young looked pretty good against Miami. I still like it

634
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 2: over two touchdowns. And I like the variants of Richardson

635
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 2: as Potentia Walker. What and you said Florida isn't a

636
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 2: good sector but they do have a really good corner

637
00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 2: in Eland was second team All American. What they need

638
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 2: to do and they upgraded their defensive line and I

639
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 2: love the kid Carter. They need to get to Young

640
00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 2: this first roadstart. They need to and grant them. We'll

641
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 2: do that. You know, you don't want them to do

642
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 2: it too much, but blitz hit them, rattle them, pick

643
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:16,959
Speaker 2: you know, elim makes a big play and then all

644
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 2: of a sudden ball game on. All right, moving on

645
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 2: to our second Marque game of the weekend. And by

646
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 2: the way, this involves a group of five team. Make

647
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 2: sure you check out the guys who are doing our

648
00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:33,239
Speaker 2: group of five review each week. They are killing it

649
00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 2: and I highly recommend listening each week I mean, I

650
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 2: think they went like nine for nine in the first week.

651
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:42,200
Speaker 2: To make sure you check out that episode each week.

652
00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 2: But for our second marquee game of the weekend, we're

653
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 2: going to Hoo's your Land. Cincinnati a three and a

654
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 2: half point favorite over under forty nine and a half

655
00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 2: at win beat. I'll give you my cap on this.

656
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:59,520
Speaker 2: Here's just something that happened today and last night. Four

657
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 2: separate people I know who never text me about college

658
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 2: football betting, they'll only text me about NFL. Four separate

659
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:11,200
Speaker 2: people said, shouldn't I just lay it with Indiana with Cincinnati?

660
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:15,600
Speaker 2: Isn't Cincinnati to kill Indiana? So that's the sentiment out there.

661
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 2: I'm right around this number. But and I'm looking at

662
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 2: some of the splits, it feels like everyone's gonna be

663
00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:25,480
Speaker 2: on Cincinnati, which means they're gonna lose. But but my

664
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 2: player is the under I grabbed under fifty, I under

665
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 2: fifty and a half. I still like it at forty

666
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 2: nine and a half. I mean, my cap here is

667
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 2: Indiana's defense potential top ten unit this year very experienced

668
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 2: very good defense on the other side of Cincinnati elite defense,

669
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 2: great corners, and Indiana can't run the ball. You know,

670
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 2: they ran the ball last week against an Idah who cares.

671
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 2: They couldn't run it lat year. They couldn't run it

672
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:51,160
Speaker 2: against Iowa. So I don't know how Indiana is really

673
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 2: going to move the ball. And I don't know if

674
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:54,960
Speaker 2: Pennix is healthy yet. He only had sixty eight yards

675
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 2: passing against Idaho and he obviously didn't look right against Iowa,

676
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 2: So I'm not sure all Indiana moves the ball. I

677
00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:02,520
Speaker 2: think Indiana's defense book beat the don't not could give

678
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:05,120
Speaker 2: up a lot of explosive plays. You're gonna have to

679
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 2: put together drives to score touchdowns in this game. And

680
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 2: unless the defenses are forcing turnovers, which could happen, there's

681
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 2: a lot of talent on both defenses. And who knows

682
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 2: Penix could throw to another Indiana under I got a

683
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,760
Speaker 2: sweat Penis throwing multiple pick sixes. But I think this

684
00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:22,840
Speaker 2: is a defensive battle. I was surprised that the number

685
00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:25,240
Speaker 2: was fifty to fifty and a half. I thought it

686
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:27,680
Speaker 2: was going to open at forty eight and then have

687
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 2: some downward pressure. Maybe that happens towards the end of

688
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 2: the week, but I see this as a defensive battle

689
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 2: throughout thoughts.

690
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:38,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think I have enough preseason investment inside of Cincinnati,

691
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 5: not you know, from a lot of perspectives, especially with

692
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 5: when it comes to Desmond Ritter, not just for the Heisman,

693
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 5: but there was a pretty fat bet that I made

694
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:48,920
Speaker 5: for him just to make it to New York.

695
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 4: But he's not going anywhere if they don't win this game.

696
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 4: And I hear your same sentiment as all people have

697
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 4: said to me, is Cincinnati's winning this game.

698
00:33:57,400 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 5: There's no worries here. And I'm like, well, if there's

699
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:01,920
Speaker 5: no work reason, why is this number hung up? Why

700
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 5: is every time he gets to three and a half

701
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 5: it comes back to three.

702
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 4: When you're in.

703
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:08,600
Speaker 5: This position, it's good to know the x's and o's.

704
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:11,240
Speaker 5: It's good to know you know the players, the coaches,

705
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 5: the schemes. It's it's good that that's all great. And

706
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:16,360
Speaker 5: I think that makes a great capper. And and I

707
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:18,200
Speaker 5: think the one thing that I've always focused on is

708
00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:20,319
Speaker 5: try to take a little piece from when I meet

709
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:22,879
Speaker 5: somebody new, Like take the psychology piece of it, Take

710
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:24,640
Speaker 5: the x's and o's part of it, Take the scheme,

711
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:27,000
Speaker 5: take the situation, take the maybe.

712
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:27,920
Speaker 4: The trends fall in.

713
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 5: Sometimes I don't know, but in this case, the market

714
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:33,720
Speaker 5: is going to take a bath in Cincinnati money.

715
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 4: I mean, there's nobody.

716
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:37,280
Speaker 5: Have you heard a case for Indiana anybody out there?

717
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:38,880
Speaker 5: So as I say that, let me go in and

718
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 5: tell you about how Indiana's trench is really struggling. Offensively,

719
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:46,000
Speaker 5: they're ninety eighth in line yard sixty seventh and pass blocking,

720
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 5: they're outside the top one hundred offensive success rate, and

721
00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 5: their bottom five and explosive plays. They're not moving the chains,

722
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 5: and they're not getting the big plays. They're not converting

723
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:57,279
Speaker 5: third downs. And whether Pinnix is healthy or not, and

724
00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 5: whether he's got it, you know, just out of sync

725
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:02,279
Speaker 5: with his wide receivers. There's just no one there to

726
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:05,439
Speaker 5: support him on an offensive line perspective, like he's under

727
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 5: pressure all the time and that's just not a good

728
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:10,799
Speaker 5: combination against Cincinnati's defensive line. And then there's you know,

729
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:14,439
Speaker 5: two shutdown corners, a mod Gardner and Arkwan Bush. They're

730
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:17,400
Speaker 5: going to play at the next level. And where's Pinnix

731
00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 5: have his most success. If you go to a heat

732
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:22,440
Speaker 5: map of where Michael Pennock throws, his biggest success is

733
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 5: outside the hashmarks. Generally it's between ten and twenty yards

734
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:28,320
Speaker 5: outside the hashes, and that's just not going to be

735
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:31,000
Speaker 5: a good combination in this game whatsoever. So, you know,

736
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:33,280
Speaker 5: the numbers down across the board for the Indiana defense,

737
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 5: the tackle and the coverage grading are way down from

738
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:38,720
Speaker 5: twenty twenty. The team is just middling and Havoc numbers

739
00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 5: the FBS on both sides of the ball. And I

740
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 5: think some things out of the Idaho box score really

741
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 5: bothered me. If you look into it, the overall yards

742
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:49,919
Speaker 5: per play were four point eight to four point three.

743
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:52,279
Speaker 5: I know you see a forty point win, but that's

744
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 5: not what was done on you know, from a yard's.

745
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:56,080
Speaker 2: Play, two special teams touchdowns in that game.

746
00:35:56,520 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 5: Rights, it's like what Iowa did to Indiana, right, It's

747
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 5: a misleading final score. And Idaho was hurried on just

748
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:05,840
Speaker 5: one passing attempt. I mean, think about that. Indiana applied

749
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 5: pressure against an Idaho offensive line and Idaho quarterback in

750
00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 5: one passing attempt. That is worrisome. So to me, Cincinnati

751
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:18,080
Speaker 5: is the best candidate for any money line parlay you

752
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 5: want to put together. But don't go crazy, because I'm

753
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:24,239
Speaker 5: telling you I could read off these stats all day

754
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 5: and I could tell you that Cincinnati's defense is going

755
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:27,560
Speaker 5: to play in the NFL.

756
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 4: But I'm also.

757
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:30,879
Speaker 5: Telling you the market is telling me something. And list

758
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 5: this number just takes off after the podcast and flies

759
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:35,080
Speaker 5: up to five and a half, six, six and a half,

760
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:39,600
Speaker 5: and there's no stopping it. Something is wrong in the market,

761
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:40,919
Speaker 5: So don't go crazy with your money.

762
00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:43,440
Speaker 4: One parlays Yeah.

763
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:47,360
Speaker 2: All right, moving on to the third marquee game of

764
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 2: the weekend, we're going to prime time. We will start

765
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:57,759
Speaker 2: with Arizona State at BYU. Arizona State's a three and

766
00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:01,920
Speaker 2: a half point favorite over under fifty one at win Bet,

767
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:06,120
Speaker 2: official odds provider the Big Bets on Campus podcast. I'll

768
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 2: tell you that I grabbed Arizona State minus two and

769
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 2: a half earlier in the week. I was as high

770
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 2: on I was gonna State than anyone. I think. Coming

771
00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:16,240
Speaker 2: into the season, we haven't really learned much about them.

772
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 2: They played two cupcakes the first two weeks. They've missed

773
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:22,160
Speaker 2: three extra points. I've learned. I'm a little worried about that.

774
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:26,239
Speaker 2: But you know, BYU, we've learned a lot about they.

775
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:28,320
Speaker 2: You know, beat two pack twelve teams. This will be

776
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:30,440
Speaker 2: the third pack twelve team that they're playing. It's the

777
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 2: first time these teams are meetings since nineteen ninety eight,

778
00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:34,920
Speaker 2: I believe, and now they play a third straight Pack

779
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:38,080
Speaker 2: twelve team. This is an Arizona State team that's loaded

780
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 2: with experience. They bring back. I mean, you look at

781
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:42,920
Speaker 2: their defense. They lost their start defensive lineman Lola in

782
00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 2: August to tricep surgery, but they have ten senior starters.

783
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:51,400
Speaker 2: You know, they have just talent all over that defense.

784
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:54,839
Speaker 2: Two super senior corners, they get their slot, they run

785
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:56,920
Speaker 2: a four to three base, they get their slot corner

786
00:37:56,960 --> 00:37:59,480
Speaker 2: back this week, healthy who played for Jack Jones, the

787
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:02,239
Speaker 2: super senior on the outside when he was suspended last year.

788
00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:05,880
Speaker 2: Just talent all over, and you know, the whole offensive

789
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:08,879
Speaker 2: line comes back. They're running back Trey Adam comes back

790
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:11,880
Speaker 2: this week. A loaded running back room. And then you

791
00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:16,239
Speaker 2: have Jane Daniels. The passing game is a little questionable

792
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 2: for Arizona State accuracy issues. We'll see how that plays out,

793
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 2: but he can run it. This is one of the

794
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:26,720
Speaker 2: most dynamic rushing attacks in the country. And the biggest

795
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:29,720
Speaker 2: question with Daniels two is all right, he lost Darby

796
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:32,000
Speaker 2: and he lost Ayuk. He had them two years ago

797
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:34,320
Speaker 2: and he's lost them in successive years to the NFL.

798
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:36,960
Speaker 2: So can someone step up as a number one receiver.

799
00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:41,799
Speaker 2: They have been potentially a super highly talented freshman who

800
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:45,400
Speaker 2: might play for the first time this weekend. We'll see.

801
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 2: But you know, when I look at Uyu, they had

802
00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:50,200
Speaker 2: thirty five percent returning production, which was the fewest in

803
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:52,920
Speaker 2: the country. They lost Zach Wilson, number two overall pick

804
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:54,400
Speaker 2: in the NFL Dread. They lost their left tackle on

805
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:57,239
Speaker 2: the third round and three others in the seventh round,

806
00:38:57,360 --> 00:39:02,080
Speaker 2: corner a wide receiver, So you know, I wasn't expecting

807
00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:04,439
Speaker 2: too much, but Sataki said he loves his team. There's

808
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 2: a lot of depth and they've been great. They moved

809
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 2: a right tackle or left tackle to replace Christiansen. He's

810
00:39:08,520 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 2: been great. Paul has been awesome. He's averaging ten yards

811
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:13,719
Speaker 2: of carry and he hasn't turned the ball over. He's

812
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 2: number five in quarterback rating. They have a lot of

813
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:19,239
Speaker 2: weapons to throw too on the outside. The defense has

814
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 2: been great. Linebackers, in particular the strike that defense. They

815
00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:25,800
Speaker 2: replaced almost the entire secondary. A you came back with

816
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:28,560
Speaker 2: strong safety, they'd move him all over. He's a great player,

817
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 2: and the defensive line is all raw as well. They

818
00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:32,760
Speaker 2: lost Tonga, who was their their big man in the middle.

819
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:35,279
Speaker 2: So when it beat Arizona, who cares. They didn't look

820
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:36,640
Speaker 2: great doing it. They got out played in the boss

821
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 2: beating Utah's a seven point undergow pretty impressive. They won

822
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:44,640
Speaker 2: the turnover battle, but they out gained Utah. But I

823
00:39:44,640 --> 00:39:46,640
Speaker 2: think that that I went back and watched that game,

824
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 2: or half of it, i should say, and the one

825
00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:51,800
Speaker 2: thing I was worried about with Utah coming into the

826
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:54,000
Speaker 2: season was their wide receivers. I think that that's all

827
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:57,360
Speaker 2: that was, is their wide receivers. We are they're in

828
00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:59,839
Speaker 2: trouble from what they need wide receivers to step up.

829
00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:03,080
Speaker 2: Because Utah ran for seven point seven yards per carry.

830
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 2: This raw defensive line for BYU, I think is gonna

831
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:08,120
Speaker 2: have trouble because Arizona State is one of the most

832
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 2: dynamic rushing attacks in the country. And then if they're

833
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 2: gonna come up, BYU usually rush three, drop eight. They've

834
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:17,239
Speaker 2: been blitzing, playing more man, playing four more four man

835
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 2: fronts this year so far. Arizona State Daniels is gonna

836
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:24,600
Speaker 2: make plays with his legs. I think Arizona State ultimately

837
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:26,360
Speaker 2: wins this game. When I lay four, four and a

838
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:29,439
Speaker 2: half now, no, but I thought Utah was fair at seven,

839
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:32,080
Speaker 2: and I have Arizona State rated higher than Utah coming

840
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:35,440
Speaker 2: into the year. Obviously I had to adjust BYU up,

841
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:38,560
Speaker 2: you know, So I still make this line around five

842
00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:40,360
Speaker 2: and a half six when I lay four and a half, No,

843
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:42,759
Speaker 2: try to get three, try to get two A lot

844
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:45,480
Speaker 2: of it. Does BYU have a hangover? I don't know.

845
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:47,640
Speaker 2: They will have their crowd again, their raucous crowd a

846
00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 2: lot of energy if they get out to a fast

847
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:52,640
Speaker 2: start against an Arizona State team playing their first road game.

848
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 2: Look for Arizona State live. I would take three or below,

849
00:40:57,120 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 2: which is gone right now, but we might get back there.

850
00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:02,680
Speaker 2: I can see some late EYU money coming in. I

851
00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 2: think the Arizona State rushing offense and Daniel's playmaking ability

852
00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 2: ultimately plays pays dividends here and that's the difference. So

853
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:14,840
Speaker 2: I like the sun Devils, but I'm higher than everyone,

854
00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:16,840
Speaker 2: but I would need three or better thoughts.

855
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:19,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, everything you say about Arizona State on the ground

856
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:21,880
Speaker 5: is almost everything I'm going to say about BYU on

857
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 5: the ground. And you know, the Cougar's got to show

858
00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:27,080
Speaker 5: up after getting the biggest winningsa Tackey's tenure. You know,

859
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:29,840
Speaker 5: they had lost a game at home since September of

860
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:34,000
Speaker 5: twenty nineteen against Washington, so it's definitely some home field advantage.

861
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 4: But there was a couple of things that stuck out

862
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:36,279
Speaker 4: to me.

863
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:39,560
Speaker 5: The Sun Doubles are ninety seventh and defensive lineyards and

864
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:43,240
Speaker 5: their forty first and defensive rushing success rate against UNLV

865
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:45,400
Speaker 5: in Southern Utah. That tells me the BYU is going

866
00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:48,160
Speaker 5: to have some success on the ground. UNLV had a

867
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:51,280
Speaker 5: fifty one percent success rate in running attempts, and plenty

868
00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 5: of that was dual threat quarterback Doug Brumfield on designed runs,

869
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:58,719
Speaker 5: but Southern Utah posted an above average and success rate

870
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:01,200
Speaker 5: against them. Also against the Sun Devils and the secondary

871
00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:03,240
Speaker 5: to the Sun Devils. They're living up to the billing

872
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 5: of the big the hype that we put on them

873
00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:07,759
Speaker 5: in our preseason podcast, but they can be attacked on

874
00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:10,160
Speaker 5: the ground and against one of the best defenses in

875
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:13,080
Speaker 5: the PAC twelve. BYU produced a sixty three percent success

876
00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:15,920
Speaker 5: rate on the ground against Utah. The Coupars generated six

877
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:18,960
Speaker 5: runs over twelve yards. They posted above national average and

878
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:22,560
Speaker 5: two plus first downs and sataki own time of possession,

879
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:25,719
Speaker 5: running moving chains. These are the type of teams you know,

880
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 5: like like Coastal Carolina, like Army that could just put

881
00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:30,440
Speaker 5: you in a choke hold and strangle you. So as

882
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:32,399
Speaker 5: far as you know, Arizona State and the offense goes,

883
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:34,560
Speaker 5: they got to generate the same success rate on the

884
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:37,600
Speaker 5: ground while eliminating a lot of mistakes. The sun Devils

885
00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:40,360
Speaker 5: offense is sixty fifth and havoc allowed. There are still

886
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:42,600
Speaker 5: you know, even with this soft schedule they've had, there

887
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:45,120
Speaker 5: are people getting back to Jaydon Daniels and most of

888
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:47,960
Speaker 5: that is coming from ten tackles for loss allowed against Southern.

889
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:50,360
Speaker 4: Utah and UNLV. I think it's too many points.

890
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 5: I'm gonna take BYU and all the points here, I

891
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:53,960
Speaker 5: would say I would buy it down to three and

892
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:55,879
Speaker 5: a half, where I think where the market is sitting

893
00:42:55,920 --> 00:42:58,840
Speaker 5: with win bet right now, I would definitely stop at three.

894
00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:00,960
Speaker 2: I'm not surprised that I like Arizona saying you don't,

895
00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 2: I mean not. Coming into the year, I was extremely

896
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:05,160
Speaker 2: high on them. And by the way, her Edwards away

897
00:43:05,160 --> 00:43:07,640
Speaker 2: does is play close games, because nineteen of his thirty

898
00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:09,960
Speaker 2: games were decided by one possession. Coming into the year,

899
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:12,760
Speaker 2: you play to win the game.

900
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:17,680
Speaker 5: Hello, you play to win the game, you don't play

901
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:18,480
Speaker 5: to just play it.

902
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:20,920
Speaker 2: All their games are one possession, so every point does

903
00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:23,399
Speaker 2: matter here. If you want to lay with Arizona State,

904
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 2: there's a fascinating dynamic in that Arizona State has just

905
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:29,360
Speaker 2: coasted right they played, so they're like fresh and ready

906
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:30,880
Speaker 2: to go. They haven't played a road game yet and

907
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:34,240
Speaker 2: they haven't been tested BYU has and you know, Arizona

908
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:35,480
Speaker 2: State was the last time they played in front of

909
00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 2: a hostile vironment. It's been two years, so BYU tested

910
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:42,480
Speaker 2: ready if they can avoid the hangover, the emotional hangar

911
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:46,520
Speaker 2: finally went beating Utah, but then it's BYU beat up.

912
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:50,400
Speaker 2: I mean that's a physical team to play last week.

913
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:53,359
Speaker 2: I mean Algier, who's excellent, ran for over eleven hundred yards.

914
00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:55,880
Speaker 2: He had what he almost carried about thirty times. He

915
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:58,759
Speaker 2: had all of their carries. So we'll see if fatigue

916
00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:01,840
Speaker 2: sets in. Should be a fascinating game. Moving on to

917
00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:05,360
Speaker 2: the final marquee game, we're staying in prime time for

918
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:07,839
Speaker 2: a white out and happy dial. It would be nice

919
00:44:07,840 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 2: to see after last year. More fan excitement talking Auburn

920
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:16,320
Speaker 2: at Penn State at win bet Penn State five point

921
00:44:16,480 --> 00:44:22,160
Speaker 2: favorite over under fifty three bow Nick season and full effect.

922
00:44:22,600 --> 00:44:24,440
Speaker 2: Drop the line, Mitchell.

923
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:27,120
Speaker 4: Bow Nicks season, then full effect.

924
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:30,920
Speaker 2: Look bo Nicks. I have to start with his home

925
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:34,799
Speaker 2: road splits home twenty two touchdowns, three interceptions on the

926
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:38,520
Speaker 2: road ten touchdowns, ten interceptions. He's been significantly worse on

927
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:41,680
Speaker 2: the road. Can he get it together here? I do

928
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:44,200
Speaker 2: worry a little bit about the Auburn offensive line as well.

929
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:47,680
Speaker 2: But I'll just throw this to you because I make

930
00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:52,200
Speaker 2: this line around six six and a half and it's five.

931
00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 2: So what am I gonna do with that? Nothing? So

932
00:44:55,520 --> 00:44:58,000
Speaker 2: I probably won't have a pregame position on this game

933
00:44:58,120 --> 00:45:01,160
Speaker 2: unless you can convince me or the line significantly changes.

934
00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 2: What do you got?

935
00:45:02,239 --> 00:45:05,480
Speaker 5: It's a bow tie boom like a powder keg in

936
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:09,200
Speaker 5: your mouth sucking style. I think that's you know. One

937
00:45:09,239 --> 00:45:11,040
Speaker 5: of the things that I've struggled with is what is

938
00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:12,719
Speaker 5: this line? That I agree with you that the line

939
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:14,239
Speaker 5: should be around five and a half, But when you

940
00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:16,960
Speaker 5: get down around the four range, you're telling me that

941
00:45:17,080 --> 00:45:20,439
Speaker 5: Penn State at home and a whiteout has how much

942
00:45:20,440 --> 00:45:22,640
Speaker 5: home field advantage? That this these two teams would be

943
00:45:22,680 --> 00:45:25,280
Speaker 5: a pick on a neutral. That doesn't make much sense.

944
00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:27,919
Speaker 5: So I think there is value in the Penn State number.

945
00:45:27,960 --> 00:45:30,560
Speaker 5: The further that it drops. We talked about market markets.

946
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:33,160
Speaker 5: Tell me Auburn gothers this game not not always full proof,

947
00:45:33,200 --> 00:45:35,520
Speaker 5: but not always full proof, and we'll see how far

948
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:37,759
Speaker 5: the line goes down. But I mean, what is what

949
00:45:37,880 --> 00:45:40,760
Speaker 5: is Auburn done? They've played Alabama State and they played

950
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:43,120
Speaker 5: Akron and Mike Bobo is the offensive cordiator, which means

951
00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:45,239
Speaker 5: they're going to score sixty points on everybody that they

952
00:45:45,280 --> 00:45:48,720
Speaker 5: possibly can, because that's just fuel in the tank for things.

953
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:50,680
Speaker 4: You know, when things go south, they're like, well, i

954
00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:52,040
Speaker 4: did beat this team by fifty points.

955
00:45:52,040 --> 00:45:54,919
Speaker 5: I'm Mike Bobo Bonex right now leads all Power five

956
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 5: quarterbacks and adjust a completion percentage at eighty nine point

957
00:45:57,600 --> 00:45:59,759
Speaker 5: five percent, and you would see that he has five

958
00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:02,360
Speaker 5: touch downs and no interceptions. But what you won't see

959
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:04,960
Speaker 5: is that he had two turnover worthy plays against Alabama State.

960
00:46:05,040 --> 00:46:08,960
Speaker 5: So I'm not convinced that Knicks is completely back. He's

961
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:11,799
Speaker 5: only been pressured three times at forty two dropbacks, and

962
00:46:11,840 --> 00:46:14,400
Speaker 5: he's still finding ways to have turnover worthy plays. So

963
00:46:14,560 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 5: I'm not a Boknix believer, yet he's got to do

964
00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:19,319
Speaker 5: it on the road in an underdog situation like this.

965
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:23,560
Speaker 5: Penn State's ability to stop Tank Bigsby is really the handicap,

966
00:46:23,680 --> 00:46:25,920
Speaker 5: and you know it's pretty impossible to do. This is

967
00:46:25,960 --> 00:46:29,080
Speaker 5: a guy that averages over five yards after contact. He

968
00:46:29,200 --> 00:46:31,960
Speaker 5: drags piles with him everywhere that he goes. Penn State's

969
00:46:31,960 --> 00:46:34,720
Speaker 5: recorded twelve tackles for loss this season, but the strength

970
00:46:34,760 --> 00:46:36,759
Speaker 5: has really been the back seven. The ninte Lions great

971
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:39,279
Speaker 5: out is the third best in the nation and coverage,

972
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:43,000
Speaker 5: So stop Tank. Let Bo make all the turnover worthy plays.

973
00:46:43,440 --> 00:46:45,520
Speaker 5: That's really how Penn State can win this game. Because

974
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:48,120
Speaker 5: Boenix did it against Alabama State, Penn State has already

975
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:51,200
Speaker 5: exposed Wisconsin and Graham Mertz. They could do it again

976
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:54,440
Speaker 5: against bo Knicks, and you know Auburn's defense, they may

977
00:46:54,480 --> 00:46:57,840
Speaker 5: have success also. I mean, defending the tempo offenses is

978
00:46:57,880 --> 00:46:59,680
Speaker 5: what got Derek Mason a head coaching job in the

979
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:02,080
Speaker 5: first place when he was out at Stanford. Auburn has

980
00:47:02,120 --> 00:47:05,239
Speaker 5: run eight different defensive schemes so far this season, but

981
00:47:05,320 --> 00:47:06,440
Speaker 5: the blitz rate has not been there.

982
00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:06,840
Speaker 4: Amazingly.

983
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:09,200
Speaker 5: Their blitzraate is like sixty percent right now, and Derek

984
00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:11,759
Speaker 5: Mason is used to blitzing like thirty five percent. So

985
00:47:11,800 --> 00:47:14,960
Speaker 5: Sean Clifford in these numbers that he has, they're fantastic.

986
00:47:15,040 --> 00:47:17,200
Speaker 5: This Mike Erisitch offense. If you don't know what he's

987
00:47:17,239 --> 00:47:20,360
Speaker 5: done to Shan Clifford. He's eliminated turnover worthy plays. He

988
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:23,719
Speaker 5: hasn't thrown one yet, and there have been thirty nine

989
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:27,120
Speaker 5: screens in play action calls and in those Sean Clifford

990
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:30,759
Speaker 5: is eighty seven percent adjust to completion rate. That is fantastic,

991
00:47:31,200 --> 00:47:34,680
Speaker 5: and they have actually played real competition. Mike Irisitch has

992
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:37,680
Speaker 5: learned how to call an offense that is conducive to

993
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 5: getting productive productivity out of Sean Clifford and get the

994
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:43,279
Speaker 5: ball to Dotson. You know, getting behind defense is what

995
00:47:43,280 --> 00:47:46,080
Speaker 5: they did against Wisconsin. So you know Clifford is the

996
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:48,400
Speaker 5: quarterback that's more improved here. Bo Nick still has a

997
00:47:48,440 --> 00:47:51,239
Speaker 5: ton to prove. The numbers, like I said, is awfully low.

998
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:52,640
Speaker 5: I mean, would you make this a pick him on

999
00:47:52,680 --> 00:47:55,520
Speaker 5: a neutral I wouldn't so as much as.

1000
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:56,040
Speaker 4: I love Tank.

1001
00:47:56,440 --> 00:47:58,280
Speaker 5: As much as I love Tank, I think Penn State's

1002
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:00,880
Speaker 5: going to load the box stop tank for to throw,

1003
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:03,880
Speaker 5: and it's probably gonna end up being whether bo Nicks

1004
00:48:04,239 --> 00:48:08,080
Speaker 5: is able to hit shots past fifteen yards is what's

1005
00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:10,960
Speaker 5: going to decide who wins this ballgame. Now, don't jump

1006
00:48:11,040 --> 00:48:14,279
Speaker 5: on me bow next season full effect. But I'm gonna

1007
00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:16,000
Speaker 5: take the discount on Penn State at four. I'm not

1008
00:48:16,040 --> 00:48:17,440
Speaker 5: gonna go on this five to five and a half

1009
00:48:17,520 --> 00:48:20,880
Speaker 5: six route. If a four or you know, if the

1010
00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:23,359
Speaker 5: number continues to drop, maybe I'll play it live. I

1011
00:48:23,360 --> 00:48:26,480
Speaker 5: don't have strong convictions about this, but at four I

1012
00:48:26,560 --> 00:48:28,799
Speaker 5: want to buy Penn State fair enough.

1013
00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:31,960
Speaker 2: We will also have more on that game on our

1014
00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:36,880
Speaker 2: Saturday morning live show Big Bets on Campus Live, which

1015
00:48:37,080 --> 00:48:39,480
Speaker 2: will be broadcast live on Twitter. Ten AAMI since to

1016
00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 2: make sure you check that out. All right, let's move

1017
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 2: on to the next segment here and talk some rapid fire.

1018
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:48,279
Speaker 2: Let's just throw out some games that you like and

1019
00:48:48,360 --> 00:48:50,160
Speaker 2: the reasons why, and if the other person has a

1020
00:48:50,160 --> 00:48:52,759
Speaker 2: strong opinion they can reply. I'll start. I'll throw out

1021
00:48:52,760 --> 00:48:55,719
Speaker 2: a couple. Just keep in mind, Old Miss they have

1022
00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:58,960
Speaker 2: a buy next week and then Alabama. But then Alabama

1023
00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:02,520
Speaker 2: they start TWU lane here at home. Two lane was

1024
00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:05,799
Speaker 2: game against Oklahoma. They lost by five at Oklahoma as

1025
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:08,520
Speaker 2: massive dogs in a game Oklahoma made three fifty plus

1026
00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:11,120
Speaker 2: yard field goals. Tu Lane has shown that they can.

1027
00:49:11,600 --> 00:49:13,840
Speaker 2: They're not gonna be afraid of the stage. Ole Miss's

1028
00:49:13,880 --> 00:49:16,480
Speaker 2: offense is obviously excellent. The defense still has a lot

1029
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:20,960
Speaker 2: of questions. I'm not sure how much Lane Kiffin will

1030
00:49:21,200 --> 00:49:24,239
Speaker 2: want to show if ole Miss has a big lead

1031
00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:28,720
Speaker 2: by halftime. Knowing Alabamazon deck show as little as possible,

1032
00:49:28,760 --> 00:49:32,400
Speaker 2: new formations, new wrinkles. Obviously, you also want to stay healthy,

1033
00:49:32,800 --> 00:49:35,080
Speaker 2: so I'll be I'll be eyeing. I'll play potentially on

1034
00:49:35,120 --> 00:49:37,920
Speaker 2: two lane if they're down let's say two touchdowns or

1035
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 2: more at the half. Kent State I have to Yeah,

1036
00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:46,440
Speaker 2: you want to talk about, you know, a letdown spot

1037
00:49:46,520 --> 00:49:50,840
Speaker 2: for Iowa. They beat Iowa State, they beat Indiana, but

1038
00:49:51,160 --> 00:49:53,600
Speaker 2: they had seven They had seven combined turnovers. As a

1039
00:49:53,640 --> 00:49:59,000
Speaker 2: team with zero explosiveness, Kent State has the offense that

1040
00:49:59,520 --> 00:50:02,719
Speaker 2: can get a here. They can potentially hit a few

1041
00:50:02,719 --> 00:50:06,360
Speaker 2: explosive plays. You have an NFL caliber quarterback on your side.

1042
00:50:06,640 --> 00:50:08,200
Speaker 2: I do worry that they're just going to get pushed

1043
00:50:08,239 --> 00:50:10,920
Speaker 2: around in the trenches, but I always just been running

1044
00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:16,200
Speaker 2: so well, high regression candidate, let down spot, and I'm

1045
00:50:16,200 --> 00:50:20,040
Speaker 2: waiting for the twenty four to pop. Out of all

1046
00:50:20,160 --> 00:50:23,680
Speaker 2: the coaches in college football since two thousand and five

1047
00:50:23,719 --> 00:50:28,399
Speaker 2: Interaction Labs database, the least profitable as a double digit favor.

1048
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:32,000
Speaker 2: Kirk Ferentz just been dreadful as a double digit favor.

1049
00:50:32,080 --> 00:50:34,960
Speaker 2: And you know, look, they're usually conservative, They're usually slow,

1050
00:50:35,320 --> 00:50:37,680
Speaker 2: hard to cover big numbers. So I'll be looking for

1051
00:50:37,760 --> 00:50:40,840
Speaker 2: flash fast soon as that twenty four pops, I'll be

1052
00:50:40,920 --> 00:50:42,960
Speaker 2: hitting it. Any thoughts on either of those.

1053
00:50:42,800 --> 00:50:46,080
Speaker 5: Two total from a total perspective, Yeah, the Kent Iowa

1054
00:50:46,160 --> 00:50:47,799
Speaker 5: I would like to take an over in that one.

1055
00:50:47,840 --> 00:50:52,040
Speaker 5: Considering how fast the flashes like to go. That's going

1056
00:50:52,120 --> 00:50:55,480
Speaker 5: to equal more possessions for Iowa and their offense, which

1057
00:50:56,120 --> 00:50:58,920
Speaker 5: couldn't turn equal some pretty fast scores. Considering what do

1058
00:50:58,920 --> 00:51:01,600
Speaker 5: this Kent State defense did against Texas A and M

1059
00:51:01,600 --> 00:51:04,600
Speaker 5: and the fact that this is a very small MAX

1060
00:51:04,640 --> 00:51:07,840
Speaker 5: school and I mean physically they're small going up against Iowa,

1061
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:09,560
Speaker 5: there could be some points scored here, So I would

1062
00:51:09,560 --> 00:51:11,839
Speaker 5: take the over there. I'm actually looking the opposite way

1063
00:51:11,840 --> 00:51:13,880
Speaker 5: against Tulane and miss Ole, miss this is a number

1064
00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:17,040
Speaker 5: that I make at seventy four. Market is at seventy

1065
00:51:17,080 --> 00:51:21,800
Speaker 5: six right now. And who's buying an underticket on this game? Nobody? Nobody,

1066
00:51:21,840 --> 00:51:23,799
Speaker 5: But you're right. I mean, like old Missus starters are

1067
00:51:23,840 --> 00:51:25,319
Speaker 5: not going to be in there the whole entire time.

1068
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:28,680
Speaker 5: Tulane is never going to stop throwing haymakers the entire game.

1069
00:51:29,160 --> 00:51:32,480
Speaker 5: Get this number, it's up to seventy six. Hey, get

1070
00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:35,240
Speaker 5: this number up to seventy seven. Give me a live

1071
00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 5: line over eighty under is the play for me, because

1072
00:51:38,760 --> 00:51:40,879
Speaker 5: I just don't I don't see the point Old miss

1073
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 5: making this a track meet, especially if they have a

1074
00:51:42,600 --> 00:51:43,439
Speaker 5: two touchdown lead.

1075
00:51:44,160 --> 00:51:46,520
Speaker 2: Fair enough. In the last one I'll throw out before

1076
00:51:46,840 --> 00:51:53,200
Speaker 2: tossing to you is Votec West Virginia at win beat.

1077
00:51:53,880 --> 00:51:56,120
Speaker 2: West Virginia is a two and a half point favorite

1078
00:51:56,120 --> 00:51:58,040
Speaker 2: at home. I played West Virginia's two and a half

1079
00:51:58,040 --> 00:52:01,080
Speaker 2: point favorite. I'm lower votech and I think the market

1080
00:52:01,120 --> 00:52:04,000
Speaker 2: and everyone else have seen people make Botech a favorite here.

1081
00:52:04,560 --> 00:52:07,160
Speaker 2: Vo Tech is getting too much credit in my opinion

1082
00:52:07,400 --> 00:52:10,200
Speaker 2: for the UNC win. UNC was just a mess. They

1083
00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:12,200
Speaker 2: had three turnovers, they were missing their center, they had

1084
00:52:12,239 --> 00:52:14,960
Speaker 2: all new weapons, and nothing went right for them on

1085
00:52:15,000 --> 00:52:17,480
Speaker 2: the road. In conference to start at their season. This

1086
00:52:17,560 --> 00:52:19,239
Speaker 2: is the West Virginia team was fourteen to seven at the

1087
00:52:19,239 --> 00:52:22,680
Speaker 2: half against Middle Tennessee State. It's still Bracks and Burmeister there.

1088
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:24,879
Speaker 2: They now lost their tight end, their star tight end

1089
00:52:24,880 --> 00:52:27,479
Speaker 2: for the season. They have no explosiveness down the field.

1090
00:52:27,480 --> 00:52:30,280
Speaker 2: They can't throw it down the field. And West Virginia's

1091
00:52:30,320 --> 00:52:34,920
Speaker 2: run defense is excellent. Country Roads play it the Country

1092
00:52:35,000 --> 00:52:41,400
Speaker 2: Roads to play.

1093
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:47,080
Speaker 3: Virginia.

1094
00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:53,360
Speaker 2: I think West Virginia wins this game at home against

1095
00:52:53,400 --> 00:52:55,440
Speaker 2: the VA Tech team that's getting way too much credit

1096
00:52:55,480 --> 00:52:57,640
Speaker 2: for that win against UNC to open up the season.

1097
00:52:58,480 --> 00:53:01,719
Speaker 2: I think West Virginia get's it done. Thoughts on there,

1098
00:53:01,719 --> 00:53:02,560
Speaker 2: and then you want to throw out.

1099
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:04,120
Speaker 4: A couple no thoughts on that game.

1100
00:53:04,160 --> 00:53:06,560
Speaker 5: I'm going to move right into a disgusting play, which

1101
00:53:06,600 --> 00:53:09,200
Speaker 5: is temple back to back road travel for BC after

1102
00:53:09,239 --> 00:53:11,160
Speaker 5: losing their quarterback on the season, and.

1103
00:53:11,120 --> 00:53:11,640
Speaker 4: They gave up.

1104
00:53:15,200 --> 00:53:16,920
Speaker 5: They gave up twenty eight points to U mess though.

1105
00:53:16,960 --> 00:53:19,919
Speaker 5: I mean, listen, Boston College. They have a quarterback that's

1106
00:53:19,920 --> 00:53:22,040
Speaker 5: been there forever in Dennis Brussels, so you know, at

1107
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:24,000
Speaker 5: least they can try to score some points.

1108
00:53:24,000 --> 00:53:26,799
Speaker 4: They did in the second half against UMass. But you

1109
00:53:26,800 --> 00:53:27,560
Speaker 4: know this is back.

1110
00:53:27,440 --> 00:53:30,040
Speaker 5: To back road travel, a team that's lost their leader

1111
00:53:30,160 --> 00:53:33,160
Speaker 5: in their quarterback. The Mini Men were also playing a

1112
00:53:33,200 --> 00:53:35,960
Speaker 5: backup quarterback in Brady Olsen, and he still threw for

1113
00:53:36,000 --> 00:53:39,480
Speaker 5: three touchdowns. So say what you want about you know,

1114
00:53:39,520 --> 00:53:41,520
Speaker 5: the offense being the problem with BC in that game

1115
00:53:41,600 --> 00:53:43,680
Speaker 5: up in Amherst, But that's not really the problem. The

1116
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:46,919
Speaker 5: problem was the defense. Uh, you know, Boston College. After

1117
00:53:46,960 --> 00:53:50,600
Speaker 5: this game, they had Missouri, Clemson, NC State. So how

1118
00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:53,279
Speaker 5: much is BC looking at, you know, back to back

1119
00:53:53,400 --> 00:53:56,320
Speaker 5: road travel taking the train down to down to Philly

1120
00:53:56,400 --> 00:53:58,840
Speaker 5: to play Temple. How much are they looking to like

1121
00:53:58,880 --> 00:54:01,279
Speaker 5: lay the hammer in and beat the hell out of

1122
00:54:01,320 --> 00:54:04,279
Speaker 5: them when they got an SEC team coming up. You know,

1123
00:54:04,320 --> 00:54:06,520
Speaker 5: Grossel got to go in the second half. But you know,

1124
00:54:06,520 --> 00:54:08,920
Speaker 5: the offensive line allowed five tackles for loss.

1125
00:54:08,680 --> 00:54:09,399
Speaker 4: Against U Mass.

1126
00:54:09,400 --> 00:54:11,359
Speaker 5: Now you tell me, is that is that a BC

1127
00:54:11,520 --> 00:54:14,600
Speaker 5: problem or is that a U Mass new feature? Probably

1128
00:54:14,800 --> 00:54:18,120
Speaker 5: towards the former. So Boston College state and standard downs

1129
00:54:18,120 --> 00:54:20,280
Speaker 5: most of the game. They ran forty five times compared

1130
00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:22,960
Speaker 5: to eighteen attempts, which means they're probably going to do

1131
00:54:23,000 --> 00:54:25,879
Speaker 5: that against Temple. Limit how much Dennis Grosseol is throwing

1132
00:54:25,880 --> 00:54:28,080
Speaker 5: the ball he's not gonna come out and gunsling it everywhere.

1133
00:54:28,360 --> 00:54:31,319
Speaker 5: So that makes the spread of over two touchdowns three,

1134
00:54:31,480 --> 00:54:35,080
Speaker 5: you know, three's possession score even more valuable. Temple is

1135
00:54:35,120 --> 00:54:37,520
Speaker 5: dead last in tempo and BC is one hundred and

1136
00:54:37,560 --> 00:54:39,400
Speaker 5: third plays per minute. This is not gonna be a

1137
00:54:39,400 --> 00:54:42,200
Speaker 5: fast game. It's a disgusting game. But the fact that

1138
00:54:42,239 --> 00:54:44,920
Speaker 5: BC is off, what happened up at UMass with their

1139
00:54:45,000 --> 00:54:49,400
Speaker 5: quarterback and what they've got to look ahead tough. It's gross,

1140
00:54:49,400 --> 00:54:51,080
Speaker 5: But I'm gonna take Temple and all and the points

1141
00:54:51,120 --> 00:54:51,880
Speaker 5: that go over fourteen.

1142
00:54:52,480 --> 00:54:54,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, and one game I wanted to ask you about that.

1143
00:54:54,960 --> 00:55:01,120
Speaker 2: I played Miami Michigan State. I got the a bad

1144
00:55:01,200 --> 00:55:03,960
Speaker 2: number here, there's you can get six now. I laid

1145
00:55:03,960 --> 00:55:06,920
Speaker 2: six and a half. I'm shocked by this number. I

1146
00:55:07,000 --> 00:55:09,439
Speaker 2: thought it would be closer to ten. I know jerrk

1147
00:55:09,480 --> 00:55:11,840
Speaker 2: King has his numbers look pretty bad. With a clean pocket,

1148
00:55:11,880 --> 00:55:14,839
Speaker 2: and something's off there. And they barely escaped app State.

1149
00:55:14,840 --> 00:55:17,799
Speaker 2: They got blown out by Alabama. Okay, that's it's fine.

1150
00:55:17,800 --> 00:55:20,560
Speaker 2: In the opener, they barely escaped app State, but you

1151
00:55:20,600 --> 00:55:23,640
Speaker 2: know app State had a special teams touchdown. Miami made

1152
00:55:23,680 --> 00:55:26,600
Speaker 2: a missed field goal. You know, I was impressed with

1153
00:55:26,640 --> 00:55:30,399
Speaker 2: Miami's run defense, which I think will matter you're Michigan State.

1154
00:55:30,440 --> 00:55:32,839
Speaker 2: I mean they played Youngstown State Northwestern, who just might

1155
00:55:32,880 --> 00:55:37,680
Speaker 2: be absolutely dreadful. So I just don't understand this line.

1156
00:55:37,800 --> 00:55:40,239
Speaker 2: But obviously there's a lot of money in the market

1157
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:41,319
Speaker 2: that likes Michigan State.

1158
00:55:42,160 --> 00:55:43,520
Speaker 4: Well, I don't understand the line either.

1159
00:55:43,560 --> 00:55:44,960
Speaker 5: I make it ten and a half, and I kind

1160
00:55:44,960 --> 00:55:46,839
Speaker 5: of I might ride with you and take Miami here.

1161
00:55:46,880 --> 00:55:48,399
Speaker 5: I think there's a lot of people that have seen

1162
00:55:48,440 --> 00:55:51,080
Speaker 5: Michigan State highlights and think that, you know, they're on

1163
00:55:51,120 --> 00:55:53,759
Speaker 5: the upswing, and that Miami's you know, you know, not

1164
00:55:53,800 --> 00:55:56,680
Speaker 5: as good as projected just a few weeks ago. The

1165
00:55:56,719 --> 00:56:00,120
Speaker 5: fact is Miami's one hundred and twenty seventh and in

1166
00:56:00,120 --> 00:56:02,520
Speaker 5: PFF tackling grades, and they're one hundred and tenth in

1167
00:56:02,600 --> 00:56:05,000
Speaker 5: offensive finishing drives. They're just not scoring any points once

1168
00:56:05,000 --> 00:56:06,200
Speaker 5: they get past forty yard line.

1169
00:56:06,239 --> 00:56:06,879
Speaker 4: That can be fixed.

1170
00:56:06,920 --> 00:56:10,040
Speaker 5: Rett lastly can figure that out, and tackling fundamentals, you

1171
00:56:10,080 --> 00:56:12,200
Speaker 5: would hope that Manny Diaz can figure that out. So

1172
00:56:12,640 --> 00:56:14,960
Speaker 5: you did start your season off with Alabama, so the

1173
00:56:15,000 --> 00:56:17,279
Speaker 5: stats don't look so good, and Michigan State has looked

1174
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:21,000
Speaker 5: fantastic to start out. I think you're getting a stock

1175
00:56:21,080 --> 00:56:23,040
Speaker 5: dip here and it's a good time to buying the Hurricanes.

1176
00:56:24,160 --> 00:56:26,399
Speaker 2: And last one, anything in Purdue Utre Dame.

1177
00:56:26,800 --> 00:56:30,640
Speaker 5: Well, first off, you know, Purdue's defensive line is, you know,

1178
00:56:30,800 --> 00:56:34,239
Speaker 5: really good. Notre Dame's offensive line is struggling. Jack Cone

1179
00:56:34,280 --> 00:56:38,000
Speaker 5: has been sacked eleven times. The guy has got cinderblocks

1180
00:56:38,040 --> 00:56:40,439
Speaker 5: for legs and his arm can't even throw that deep.

1181
00:56:40,680 --> 00:56:42,400
Speaker 5: I don't know when the freshman's going to come in

1182
00:56:42,440 --> 00:56:45,080
Speaker 5: and take over for Jack Cone. The execution is still

1183
00:56:45,120 --> 00:56:48,000
Speaker 5: not there for Notre Dame. I love Purdue's defensive line.

1184
00:56:48,040 --> 00:56:51,399
Speaker 5: I think they're gonna get pressure on Cone. Oh, he's

1185
00:56:51,440 --> 00:56:53,759
Speaker 5: going to be all over him, absolutely all over him.

1186
00:56:53,760 --> 00:56:56,320
Speaker 5: I love purdueing the spot. It's kind of sad I

1187
00:56:56,360 --> 00:56:58,200
Speaker 5: didn't get it an eight. I think seven right now,

1188
00:56:58,320 --> 00:57:00,680
Speaker 5: win bet. But you know Purdue's aside for me.

1189
00:57:01,120 --> 00:57:04,520
Speaker 2: Operator fad a name I've been saying that I might

1190
00:57:04,640 --> 00:57:07,440
Speaker 2: join you. We'll see. All right, let's move on to

1191
00:57:07,800 --> 00:57:12,160
Speaker 2: our next segment. It's time to take out the trash.

1192
00:57:12,480 --> 00:57:15,880
Speaker 2: I'm the trash man. Just throw me the trash, your garbage,

1193
00:57:16,200 --> 00:57:20,240
Speaker 2: and you know it totally unreliable, undependable. That's it. You've

1194
00:57:20,280 --> 00:57:20,760
Speaker 2: been told off.

1195
00:57:20,760 --> 00:57:21,320
Speaker 5: How do you like that?

1196
00:57:21,720 --> 00:57:21,959
Speaker 1: Good?

1197
00:57:22,800 --> 00:57:26,240
Speaker 2: All right? This is bad and ugly and it's probably

1198
00:57:26,240 --> 00:57:29,520
Speaker 2: gonna backfire and we're gonna look dumb. But we both

1199
00:57:30,040 --> 00:57:32,400
Speaker 2: one of us played UMass, one of us played Yukon,

1200
00:57:33,000 --> 00:57:35,320
Speaker 2: So it's time to step up to the plate and

1201
00:57:35,320 --> 00:57:39,400
Speaker 2: make our cases. I'll start with my dissertation on why

1202
00:57:39,520 --> 00:57:43,439
Speaker 2: I that Yukon plus thirty four and a half at Army?

1203
00:57:43,680 --> 00:57:45,640
Speaker 2: First of all, do I see value in the number?

1204
00:57:45,960 --> 00:57:48,800
Speaker 2: Shockingly against Yukon, who has lost ninety four to nothing

1205
00:57:49,280 --> 00:57:52,080
Speaker 2: to the two FBS teams that have played. The one

1206
00:57:52,520 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 2: team that played Holy Cross beat them thirty eight twenty eight.

1207
00:57:55,560 --> 00:57:59,320
Speaker 2: It's ugly, But what did I say? Triple option? Just

1208
00:57:59,320 --> 00:58:02,439
Speaker 2: triple option? Slow team like Georgia Southern hard to cover

1209
00:58:02,520 --> 00:58:06,040
Speaker 2: these big numbers. Air Force Army Navy has double digit

1210
00:58:06,120 --> 00:58:10,240
Speaker 2: favorites forty three percent against the spread. Historically double digit

1211
00:58:10,320 --> 00:58:14,560
Speaker 2: dogs like sixty percent as an underdog fifty three percent overall,

1212
00:58:14,680 --> 00:58:17,520
Speaker 2: they are horrible double digit favorites you want to go

1213
00:58:17,600 --> 00:58:22,400
Speaker 2: to twenty point favorites. Army, Navy and Air Force are

1214
00:58:22,480 --> 00:58:25,680
Speaker 2: eight fifteen and two against the spread. Thirty four percent

1215
00:58:25,720 --> 00:58:29,080
Speaker 2: when laying over four touchdowns and eighteen twenty nine and

1216
00:58:29,240 --> 00:58:34,920
Speaker 2: three when laying over twenty. Compare that to this twenty

1217
00:58:34,960 --> 00:58:38,000
Speaker 2: one and six against the spread when getting twenty or more,

1218
00:58:38,640 --> 00:58:44,040
Speaker 2: it's seventy eight percent. Triple option math limited possessions harder

1219
00:58:44,080 --> 00:58:47,640
Speaker 2: to cover these bigger numbers. Now, Army did beat U

1220
00:58:47,680 --> 00:58:51,280
Speaker 2: Mass twenty nineteen U Mass sixty three to seven. I

1221
00:58:51,360 --> 00:58:54,240
Speaker 2: still have this Yukon team rated seven points higher than that,

1222
00:58:54,360 --> 00:58:56,960
Speaker 2: actually ten ten points higher than that U messing. That's

1223
00:58:56,960 --> 00:59:00,560
Speaker 2: how dreadful that UMS team was. But so there's this

1224
00:59:00,640 --> 00:59:02,920
Speaker 2: is just a blind fade of Army as a thirty

1225
00:59:02,920 --> 00:59:06,400
Speaker 2: four and a half point favorite. And on top of that,

1226
00:59:06,440 --> 00:59:09,520
Speaker 2: there are some things. If I had to make a

1227
00:59:09,560 --> 00:59:13,160
Speaker 2: case for Yukon, they're dreadful. But last week was pretty

1228
00:59:13,200 --> 00:59:15,680
Speaker 2: much week zero for them playing Purdue. They had a

1229
00:59:15,680 --> 00:59:18,640
Speaker 2: new coach and a new quarterback, and the quarterback change

1230
00:59:19,520 --> 00:59:22,560
Speaker 2: was a good thing for our bet this week because

1231
00:59:22,560 --> 00:59:26,280
Speaker 2: they got rid of the turnover machine Xergiatis and they

1232
00:59:26,280 --> 00:59:29,400
Speaker 2: brought in Kurjuski, who better decision maker. He can also

1233
00:59:29,440 --> 00:59:31,560
Speaker 2: do some things with his legs, which is big because

1234
00:59:31,600 --> 00:59:35,360
Speaker 2: they're going to be under pressure the entire game. They

1235
00:59:35,400 --> 00:59:39,560
Speaker 2: have a couple good running backs. This will probably end badly,

1236
00:59:39,600 --> 00:59:43,080
Speaker 2: but I think that Yukon can score seven to fourteen.

1237
00:59:43,640 --> 00:59:46,720
Speaker 2: Maybe it might take a fluke touchdown. Remember you're playing Army.

1238
00:59:46,720 --> 00:59:49,600
Speaker 2: Team's run well in the turnover department. So far, it's

1239
00:59:49,600 --> 00:59:52,880
Speaker 2: a pitch, a fumble, dive. They could have a drive

1240
00:59:52,880 --> 00:59:56,360
Speaker 2: that takes ten minutes and then it becomes extremely difficult

1241
00:59:56,360 --> 00:59:58,800
Speaker 2: to cover thirty four. This is a team that beats

1242
00:59:58,800 --> 01:00:02,320
Speaker 2: Cinnadel last year twelve seven. I know Citadel has familiarity

1243
01:00:02,320 --> 01:00:05,680
Speaker 2: with the triple option you consult in twenty nineteen against Navy.

1244
01:00:06,160 --> 01:00:08,280
Speaker 2: I don't think it's that applicable year as a very

1245
01:00:08,360 --> 01:00:11,520
Speaker 2: new roster. But at the end of the day, this

1246
01:00:11,720 --> 01:00:13,800
Speaker 2: is a fade of Army as a thirty four and

1247
01:00:13,800 --> 01:00:18,200
Speaker 2: a half point favorite, which I will do almost blindly.

1248
01:00:18,600 --> 01:00:22,080
Speaker 2: Every single time I actually passed on U Mass. I

1249
01:00:22,160 --> 01:00:24,800
Speaker 2: just could not put my money on that UMAs team anymore.

1250
01:00:25,280 --> 01:00:28,720
Speaker 2: I'm not passing on this week, but that brings me.

1251
01:00:29,040 --> 01:00:33,040
Speaker 2: That brings us to your play on U Mass take

1252
01:00:33,080 --> 01:00:36,320
Speaker 2: it away? Are you joining me on? You came by

1253
01:00:36,360 --> 01:00:36,840
Speaker 2: the lay or no?

1254
01:00:37,080 --> 01:00:39,040
Speaker 4: I thought about thererowing a couple hundred. Like when you

1255
01:00:39,080 --> 01:00:40,080
Speaker 4: and I decided, when.

1256
01:00:39,960 --> 01:00:41,680
Speaker 5: We both figured out earlier in the week that you

1257
01:00:41,720 --> 01:00:43,320
Speaker 5: and I were taking these two teams, I thought, you

1258
01:00:43,320 --> 01:00:45,720
Speaker 5: know what I should, I should parlay them both together.

1259
01:00:46,000 --> 01:00:46,200
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1260
01:00:46,280 --> 01:00:49,560
Speaker 4: The one thing, okay, I'll do it with you too.

1261
01:00:49,600 --> 01:00:51,560
Speaker 5: The one thing that scares me about Ukonda, besides the

1262
01:00:51,560 --> 01:00:54,960
Speaker 5: fact they haven't scored a single point against the FBS team,

1263
01:00:55,120 --> 01:00:57,160
Speaker 5: is that their pace of play is like thirty sixth

1264
01:00:57,280 --> 01:00:59,400
Speaker 5: and I just don't, oh, just over three and out,

1265
01:00:59,400 --> 01:01:00,880
Speaker 5: three and out, three and three and out over and

1266
01:01:00,920 --> 01:01:03,000
Speaker 5: over at a fast tempo and keep giving up possessions

1267
01:01:03,000 --> 01:01:05,720
Speaker 5: to Army. But then maybe Armies feeling charitable because it's

1268
01:01:05,800 --> 01:01:07,840
Speaker 5: kind of like a you know, an orphan team with

1269
01:01:07,880 --> 01:01:09,400
Speaker 5: a coach that's already gone.

1270
01:01:09,480 --> 01:01:10,680
Speaker 4: And I don't know U Mass.

1271
01:01:10,760 --> 01:01:13,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, so you know, I mentioned some things about the

1272
01:01:13,120 --> 01:01:15,480
Speaker 5: Boston College box score that really caught my attention. How

1273
01:01:15,520 --> 01:01:17,200
Speaker 5: much of that is Boston College? How much of that

1274
01:01:17,280 --> 01:01:19,120
Speaker 5: is you Mass. There's a lot of things going on

1275
01:01:19,200 --> 01:01:21,000
Speaker 5: up at Amherst. I mean I got texts from multiple

1276
01:01:21,040 --> 01:01:23,280
Speaker 5: people this week that are like, you shouldn't have put

1277
01:01:23,320 --> 01:01:25,520
Speaker 5: in that, U Mass. Bet, there's a COVID, there's COVID

1278
01:01:25,520 --> 01:01:27,080
Speaker 5: going on. I'll hear the whole team is going to

1279
01:01:27,120 --> 01:01:29,640
Speaker 5: be out. And so I've been on this seventy two

1280
01:01:29,680 --> 01:01:33,280
Speaker 5: hour search for what is going on from a COVID perspective. Now,

1281
01:01:33,320 --> 01:01:35,760
Speaker 5: I knew that the tailgate at McGirk last week was canceled.

1282
01:01:35,880 --> 01:01:38,200
Speaker 5: The administrators had you know, they have a COVID scare,

1283
01:01:38,400 --> 01:01:41,720
Speaker 5: but that didn't stop ten thousand fans from still getting

1284
01:01:41,720 --> 01:01:44,480
Speaker 5: together right outside the stadium and hosting their own tail dates.

1285
01:01:45,000 --> 01:01:45,919
Speaker 4: Yeah, in another area.

1286
01:01:46,000 --> 01:01:49,280
Speaker 5: By the way, you get a ticket at UMass if

1287
01:01:49,320 --> 01:01:51,000
Speaker 5: you stand at a tailgate. I think I think we

1288
01:01:51,080 --> 01:01:52,680
Speaker 5: reviewed these rules a couple of years ago. Like the

1289
01:01:52,840 --> 01:01:57,360
Speaker 5: tailgating rules up there are funky, But the rampant speculation

1290
01:01:57,440 --> 01:01:59,440
Speaker 5: about COVID is what is sent this line.

1291
01:01:59,400 --> 01:02:01,720
Speaker 2: Because they hit pay you too? Do they pay you?

1292
01:02:03,760 --> 01:02:05,960
Speaker 5: If you're gonna watch a UMass game, I'd get tanked.

1293
01:02:06,280 --> 01:02:08,919
Speaker 5: I'd be standing in the back of a truck bed.

1294
01:02:09,320 --> 01:02:11,880
Speaker 5: So I mean, listen this COVID. I can't find the

1295
01:02:11,920 --> 01:02:14,400
Speaker 5: source of this. What I do know is that this

1296
01:02:14,480 --> 01:02:17,120
Speaker 5: number opened around nineteen and a half twenty, and I

1297
01:02:17,160 --> 01:02:18,600
Speaker 5: was happy to hit it on the opener when it

1298
01:02:18,600 --> 01:02:21,160
Speaker 5: fell down to seventeen on Eastern Michigan, and I felt great,

1299
01:02:21,200 --> 01:02:23,360
Speaker 5: I feel justified. And the number that I took. Then

1300
01:02:23,360 --> 01:02:25,280
Speaker 5: this COVID news gets released, Boom, We're all the way

1301
01:02:25,320 --> 01:02:27,520
Speaker 5: up to twenty three and a half. Now the market's

1302
01:02:27,600 --> 01:02:29,760
Speaker 5: being bought back down to twenty two because maybe this

1303
01:02:29,800 --> 01:02:32,440
Speaker 5: isn't you know, really what's going on. There's a lot

1304
01:02:32,440 --> 01:02:34,600
Speaker 5: of manipulation going on with this number. So I can't

1305
01:02:34,640 --> 01:02:36,360
Speaker 5: confirm that there's COVID on the team. But what I

1306
01:02:36,400 --> 01:02:39,600
Speaker 5: can confirm is that there are nine players not playing.

1307
01:02:39,920 --> 01:02:44,040
Speaker 5: Walt Bell said on Tuesday at practice, specifically, there are

1308
01:02:44,120 --> 01:02:46,200
Speaker 5: nine players sitting out this one because of injury, and

1309
01:02:46,200 --> 01:02:49,760
Speaker 5: that includes quarterback Tyler Lytle. Now he's not the one

1310
01:02:49,760 --> 01:02:52,840
Speaker 5: who played against Boston College. Quarterback Brady Olsen is expected

1311
01:02:52,880 --> 01:02:54,680
Speaker 5: to get the start, and he had a better than

1312
01:02:54,800 --> 01:02:56,200
Speaker 5: national average success rate.

1313
01:02:56,040 --> 01:02:56,720
Speaker 4: Against the bc D.

1314
01:02:56,880 --> 01:02:57,520
Speaker 2: Look pretty good.

1315
01:02:57,920 --> 01:03:01,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, and Eastern Michigan is no beast. And by the way,

1316
01:03:01,520 --> 01:03:04,200
Speaker 5: if you're familiar with baseball, there's a term called VORP

1317
01:03:04,360 --> 01:03:07,760
Speaker 5: value over replacement player. I assume everybody on the UMAs

1318
01:03:07,840 --> 01:03:09,280
Speaker 5: roster is pretty much equal.

1319
01:03:09,080 --> 01:03:09,520
Speaker 4: To each other.

1320
01:03:09,560 --> 01:03:11,280
Speaker 5: So if we're go over first string to second string,

1321
01:03:11,680 --> 01:03:14,120
Speaker 5: I'm not really sure. Like it's not like we've lost

1322
01:03:14,640 --> 01:03:17,560
Speaker 5: Jerkovic here, right, It's not like we've lost you know,

1323
01:03:18,200 --> 01:03:19,440
Speaker 5: dj Uyong Galiley.

1324
01:03:19,920 --> 01:03:20,960
Speaker 4: So they have better.

1325
01:03:20,840 --> 01:03:22,600
Speaker 2: Depth this year. This they had one hundred and fifteen

1326
01:03:22,720 --> 01:03:25,120
Speaker 2: kids in camp instead of like ninety which they had

1327
01:03:25,120 --> 01:03:25,800
Speaker 2: two years ago.

1328
01:03:26,280 --> 01:03:26,600
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1329
01:03:26,720 --> 01:03:29,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, And so you know, the Eagles are bottom five

1330
01:03:29,120 --> 01:03:33,560
Speaker 5: and more than half the advanced stats this year success rate, lineyards, coverage.

1331
01:03:33,760 --> 01:03:37,600
Speaker 5: Offensively they are near dead last and finishing drives, explosiveness

1332
01:03:37,600 --> 01:03:40,920
Speaker 5: and havoc allowed. This is this isn't some great Mac team.

1333
01:03:41,360 --> 01:03:43,360
Speaker 5: I know that they've made a couple of bulls, but

1334
01:03:43,440 --> 01:03:45,960
Speaker 5: they are dreadful in the advanced stats right now. Chris

1335
01:03:46,000 --> 01:03:48,320
Speaker 5: Creden's got his work cutout for him. And you're gonna

1336
01:03:48,360 --> 01:03:51,240
Speaker 5: make them this big of a favorite on the road

1337
01:03:51,440 --> 01:03:52,280
Speaker 5: against anybody.

1338
01:03:52,280 --> 01:03:53,280
Speaker 4: I don't think it's a good idea.

1339
01:03:53,360 --> 01:03:56,160
Speaker 5: So a place where UMass has shown improvement, there is

1340
01:03:56,200 --> 01:03:59,080
Speaker 5: improvement actually in their numbers. They're seventy six then line

1341
01:03:59,160 --> 01:04:01,840
Speaker 5: yards again, that's going to be needed against an Eastern

1342
01:04:01,880 --> 01:04:04,720
Speaker 5: Michigan team who likes to send Preston Hutchinson. They're huge

1343
01:04:04,800 --> 01:04:08,120
Speaker 5: quarterback on designed runs. But U MASS is actually owning

1344
01:04:08,160 --> 01:04:10,040
Speaker 5: the trench a little bit. Sign me up for U

1345
01:04:10,080 --> 01:04:13,120
Speaker 5: Mass getting all these points over three touchdowns. Let the

1346
01:04:13,200 --> 01:04:16,000
Speaker 5: public room crazy with all this, Let the COVID. Let

1347
01:04:16,000 --> 01:04:18,320
Speaker 5: the COVID cancel the tailgate on the outside. The kids

1348
01:04:18,320 --> 01:04:19,160
Speaker 5: are still going to be there.

1349
01:04:19,440 --> 01:04:21,520
Speaker 4: Sign me up. Let's go. No MAC team should be

1350
01:04:21,520 --> 01:04:23,240
Speaker 4: favored this much on the road, U.

1351
01:04:23,200 --> 01:04:27,880
Speaker 2: Mass, Yukon Baby to trash Man weekend. The trash is

1352
01:04:27,920 --> 01:04:33,480
Speaker 2: a gold mine, old mine. Unfortunately for Youkon Yukon Armies

1353
01:04:33,480 --> 01:04:36,240
Speaker 2: are noon on CBS Sports net Work. That's my favorite

1354
01:04:36,240 --> 01:04:39,760
Speaker 2: slot fortunately, so people will watch me get embarrassed. No

1355
01:04:39,800 --> 01:04:42,040
Speaker 2: one will watch you because I think it's on Flow Sports,

1356
01:04:42,040 --> 01:04:43,080
Speaker 2: but I'll be watching it.

1357
01:04:43,240 --> 01:04:45,680
Speaker 5: You don't have your twenty nine to ninety nine dollars subscription,

1358
01:04:45,760 --> 01:04:48,640
Speaker 5: so you can watch UTEP at ten pm, and U Mass.

1359
01:04:48,360 --> 01:04:50,720
Speaker 2: I do, I do. I'm just saying the Masses, Well,

1360
01:04:51,840 --> 01:04:55,320
Speaker 2: all right, let's move on to a quick FCEs.

1361
01:04:55,000 --> 01:05:07,080
Speaker 3: Or no, Southland or SEC, Big Sky or Big ten.

1362
01:05:08,040 --> 01:05:11,240
Speaker 3: It's time to play FC, yes or no.

1363
01:05:15,800 --> 01:05:18,640
Speaker 2: I'll just point out a couple of things here. Rutgers

1364
01:05:19,160 --> 01:05:21,520
Speaker 2: takes on Delaware at home. Rutgers has two and oh

1365
01:05:21,560 --> 01:05:24,680
Speaker 2: Rutgers alfo Syracuse win has Michigan and Ohio State on deck.

1366
01:05:25,280 --> 01:05:27,480
Speaker 2: They take on Delaware, a Delaware team that in twenty

1367
01:05:27,560 --> 01:05:30,040
Speaker 2: nineteen went to Pittan only all seventeen to fourteen. Ranked

1368
01:05:30,080 --> 01:05:34,600
Speaker 2: number six in the FCS. POWL went to the semifinals

1369
01:05:34,960 --> 01:05:39,400
Speaker 2: in the spring, the FCS Semifinals. I saw this number

1370
01:05:39,440 --> 01:05:41,600
Speaker 2: open up at a shop thirty one and a half

1371
01:05:41,640 --> 01:05:44,280
Speaker 2: too high. I don't know if it's out a lot

1372
01:05:44,280 --> 01:05:46,120
Speaker 2: of books now, it's twenty seven and a half there

1373
01:05:46,640 --> 01:05:49,280
Speaker 2: if I can get over twenty eight with Delaware Blue

1374
01:05:49,280 --> 01:05:53,800
Speaker 2: Hens baby and then Oregon Stonybrook Oregon letdown City stony

1375
01:05:53,840 --> 01:05:56,840
Speaker 2: Brook stakes though, so Oregon off that Ohio State win.

1376
01:05:57,040 --> 01:06:00,200
Speaker 2: They cannot throw the ball, they can't score. If you

1377
01:06:00,200 --> 01:06:02,600
Speaker 2: think Oregon is a letdown, you know, and these are

1378
01:06:02,720 --> 01:06:04,360
Speaker 2: very small limits of these games. I would look at

1379
01:06:04,400 --> 01:06:07,040
Speaker 2: the under sony Brook. Their defense is good for an

1380
01:06:07,080 --> 01:06:09,840
Speaker 2: FCS team, but they can't throw the ball at all,

1381
01:06:10,120 --> 01:06:12,360
Speaker 2: like it's at the FCS level, So I can't see

1382
01:06:12,400 --> 01:06:14,959
Speaker 2: them scoring. Maybe it's I saw Oregon's like a forty

1383
01:06:14,960 --> 01:06:18,240
Speaker 2: one and a half point favorite. Maybe like Oregon wins

1384
01:06:18,520 --> 01:06:21,000
Speaker 2: forty five. Nothing that's all I got. You got anything

1385
01:06:21,000 --> 01:06:21,760
Speaker 2: in FCS.

1386
01:06:22,000 --> 01:06:24,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, I've got my eyes on Tennessee Tennessee Tech. The

1387
01:06:24,920 --> 01:06:27,080
Speaker 5: Bowls are a desperate need of a get healthy game,

1388
01:06:27,400 --> 01:06:29,800
Speaker 5: and Tennessee Tech has been blown out to the tune

1389
01:06:30,120 --> 01:06:34,200
Speaker 5: of seventy eight to fourteen against Samford and Furman. For

1390
01:06:34,800 --> 01:06:38,120
Speaker 5: Tennessee Tech is really struggling. I mean, they're missing some players.

1391
01:06:38,640 --> 01:06:41,280
Speaker 5: A first half line maybe the key because Florida is

1392
01:06:41,320 --> 01:06:44,920
Speaker 5: on deck for Tennessee. There's no injury status update as

1393
01:06:45,000 --> 01:06:47,240
Speaker 5: of this recording on Joe Milton, but if he plays,

1394
01:06:47,280 --> 01:06:49,400
Speaker 5: I think that's great because you're gonna get more of

1395
01:06:49,440 --> 01:06:51,960
Speaker 5: a first half of Joe Milton and Hendon Hooker. Hendon Hooker,

1396
01:06:51,960 --> 01:06:54,360
Speaker 5: I'd bet my money on Joe Milton. I'm kind of yeah,

1397
01:06:54,560 --> 01:06:56,520
Speaker 5: You're not gonna see me betting Joe Milton money against

1398
01:06:56,520 --> 01:06:59,880
Speaker 5: another at SEC team, But Hendon Hooker we actually have

1399
01:07:00,080 --> 01:07:02,800
Speaker 5: always like. But you know, if Hennon Hooker gets extended

1400
01:07:02,840 --> 01:07:04,560
Speaker 5: play in the first half, I think that's a great thing.

1401
01:07:05,040 --> 01:07:06,920
Speaker 5: The Golden Eagles are just they're not prepared for this

1402
01:07:07,000 --> 01:07:09,880
Speaker 5: Boles offense that is second and plays per minute. I mean,

1403
01:07:09,960 --> 01:07:12,200
Speaker 5: hypel I'm really disappointed that he's not first in the

1404
01:07:12,280 --> 01:07:14,800
Speaker 5: nation in tempo Hypel's looking for an offensive groove and

1405
01:07:15,200 --> 01:07:18,200
Speaker 5: he needs this scrimmage to serve as a purpose. It's

1406
01:07:18,240 --> 01:07:21,520
Speaker 5: not like this is just some random Sandwich FCS game.

1407
01:07:21,600 --> 01:07:24,080
Speaker 5: Like Hypel really needs to lay the beat down on

1408
01:07:24,120 --> 01:07:27,640
Speaker 5: somebody the Tennessee side versus the total, because I think

1409
01:07:27,680 --> 01:07:30,800
Speaker 5: the defense is playing well and Tennessee Tech has had

1410
01:07:30,840 --> 01:07:33,400
Speaker 5: real issues getting on the board so far this season,

1411
01:07:33,440 --> 01:07:35,600
Speaker 5: so I'm not sure that they can score and get

1412
01:07:35,600 --> 01:07:39,680
Speaker 5: points up to support an overticket. But I'm looking for

1413
01:07:39,760 --> 01:07:41,400
Speaker 5: a Tennessee first half.

1414
01:07:41,600 --> 01:07:41,760
Speaker 4: Oh.

1415
01:07:41,800 --> 01:07:44,960
Speaker 5: Also Juco Djuco transfer Byron Young. He gets his first

1416
01:07:45,000 --> 01:07:47,480
Speaker 5: start on the defensive line for Tennessee. He was their

1417
01:07:47,560 --> 01:07:50,880
Speaker 5: prize transfer portal possession. He couldn't play in the first

1418
01:07:50,880 --> 01:07:52,920
Speaker 5: two games. He is making his start in this game.

1419
01:07:53,160 --> 01:07:55,120
Speaker 5: It's another reason I don't want to mess with the total.

1420
01:07:55,200 --> 01:07:58,400
Speaker 5: So Tennessee first half. The side is not open. As

1421
01:07:58,440 --> 01:07:59,960
Speaker 5: you and I are recording this, I am looking for

1422
01:08:00,120 --> 01:08:02,200
Speaker 5: under twenty four on the volunteers in the first half.

1423
01:08:02,720 --> 01:08:05,000
Speaker 2: All right, don't hate it. Some good insight there before

1424
01:08:05,000 --> 01:08:07,000
Speaker 2: we get out of here. Let's go three and ow

1425
01:08:07,760 --> 01:08:09,040
Speaker 2: oh two three.

1426
01:08:09,200 --> 01:08:11,360
Speaker 3: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1427
01:08:12,400 --> 01:08:14,919
Speaker 2: All right, you just mentioned josh Iipel. Let's talk some

1428
01:08:15,080 --> 01:08:16,960
Speaker 2: Friday night lights on first down.

1429
01:08:17,680 --> 01:08:20,559
Speaker 4: Let's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

1430
01:08:20,880 --> 01:08:25,160
Speaker 2: Hey, let's go play some football at win that UCF

1431
01:08:25,160 --> 01:08:27,240
Speaker 2: to six and a half point favorite at Louisville over

1432
01:08:27,320 --> 01:08:29,840
Speaker 2: under sixty six and a half. Look UCF out to

1433
01:08:29,880 --> 01:08:31,880
Speaker 2: a two and US start, they've got down big. The

1434
01:08:31,920 --> 01:08:34,880
Speaker 2: Boise State came back won that game, and then last

1435
01:08:34,920 --> 01:08:37,880
Speaker 2: week they blew out Theathune Cookman. Who cares. Look, I

1436
01:08:37,960 --> 01:08:41,280
Speaker 2: wasn't that high coming into the season on Louisville. I

1437
01:08:41,320 --> 01:08:43,640
Speaker 2: think you were much higher than them. But maybe I

1438
01:08:44,120 --> 01:08:46,200
Speaker 2: don't know. Maybe I also was lower on UCF. I

1439
01:08:46,240 --> 01:08:48,519
Speaker 2: thought this sone was crazy when I could get seven

1440
01:08:48,560 --> 01:08:50,800
Speaker 2: and a half of Louisville at home, so I took it.

1441
01:08:50,840 --> 01:08:52,960
Speaker 2: I grabbed it as soon as I saw seven and

1442
01:08:53,040 --> 01:08:55,479
Speaker 2: a half. Six and a half is a little diceier,

1443
01:08:55,479 --> 01:08:57,200
Speaker 2: but if you can get a touchdown or more. I

1444
01:08:57,360 --> 01:08:59,920
Speaker 2: like the home dog Cardinals here. I think that they

1445
01:09:00,080 --> 01:09:02,840
Speaker 2: might be able to control the clock, take UCF out

1446
01:09:02,840 --> 01:09:04,840
Speaker 2: of their game a little bit. You should see a

1447
01:09:04,920 --> 01:09:08,719
Speaker 2: lot of points by variance game. But I think catching

1448
01:09:08,760 --> 01:09:12,120
Speaker 2: seven and a half with this Louisville team at home

1449
01:09:12,240 --> 01:09:14,360
Speaker 2: Friday night. I'm taking thoughts.

1450
01:09:14,920 --> 01:09:18,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, turnovers, mistakes, everything for Louisville that kept them from

1451
01:09:18,320 --> 01:09:20,720
Speaker 5: covering that first game of the season. You know, they

1452
01:09:21,560 --> 01:09:23,920
Speaker 5: they they are their own worst enemy. And it shows

1453
01:09:23,920 --> 01:09:25,840
Speaker 5: on the defensive side of the ball. They are one

1454
01:09:25,880 --> 01:09:28,160
Speaker 5: hundred and twenty eighth in defending the explosive play. They

1455
01:09:28,160 --> 01:09:30,720
Speaker 5: are one hundred and fifteenth in defensive havoc. There is

1456
01:09:30,760 --> 01:09:34,439
Speaker 5: nothing happening and that it scares me. Also that they're

1457
01:09:34,439 --> 01:09:37,759
Speaker 5: one hundred and twenty sixth then tackling so Central Florida.

1458
01:09:37,880 --> 01:09:39,840
Speaker 5: I make it seven, but you know what, you got

1459
01:09:39,840 --> 01:09:42,400
Speaker 5: to respect other power rating systems that put.

1460
01:09:42,240 --> 01:09:43,000
Speaker 4: It much lower.

1461
01:09:43,160 --> 01:09:45,639
Speaker 5: And you know SPPLUS makes this four and a half.

1462
01:09:45,840 --> 01:09:47,560
Speaker 5: So that tells me that this money is going to

1463
01:09:47,600 --> 01:09:50,320
Speaker 5: come in and knock Central Florida down. That makes me

1464
01:09:50,360 --> 01:09:52,479
Speaker 5: pretty happy. I think you're seven and a half is

1465
01:09:52,520 --> 01:09:53,840
Speaker 5: a good number. It's not going to get back up there,

1466
01:09:53,840 --> 01:09:55,240
Speaker 5: and I think the number is going to continue to

1467
01:09:55,240 --> 01:09:57,000
Speaker 5: come down. And I'm just going to sit here and wait.

1468
01:09:57,040 --> 01:09:58,880
Speaker 5: Because it's six. I'm a buyer five and a half.

1469
01:09:58,960 --> 01:09:59,840
Speaker 5: I'm a buyer of.

1470
01:10:00,120 --> 01:10:04,200
Speaker 4: Of Central Florida. These Louisville defensive numbers are gross.

1471
01:10:05,000 --> 01:10:08,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, it does scare me against Dylan Gabriel, but I'm

1472
01:10:08,320 --> 01:10:10,680
Speaker 2: happy with the number I have at least all right,

1473
01:10:11,200 --> 01:10:14,360
Speaker 2: and then elsewhere on Friday Night, anything in the other

1474
01:10:14,400 --> 01:10:19,360
Speaker 2: game tucking Maryland seven point favorite at windbet at Illinois

1475
01:10:19,400 --> 01:10:21,719
Speaker 2: over under sixty and a half. This game's at nine

1476
01:10:21,720 --> 01:10:25,519
Speaker 2: eastern on FS one. I got nothing for this game.

1477
01:10:25,520 --> 01:10:25,960
Speaker 2: What do you got?

1478
01:10:26,160 --> 01:10:28,599
Speaker 5: Maryland's able to put up explosive plays. Illinois is gonna

1479
01:10:28,600 --> 01:10:29,479
Speaker 5: have a problem defending that.

1480
01:10:29,520 --> 01:10:29,680
Speaker 2: I know.

1481
01:10:29,760 --> 01:10:31,599
Speaker 5: Brendon Peters is back. I think that's the reason why

1482
01:10:31,640 --> 01:10:33,479
Speaker 5: we've seen a little bit of line movement here. But

1483
01:10:33,560 --> 01:10:36,759
Speaker 5: Brendan Peters doesn't play defense, and this Brett Beelama defense

1484
01:10:36,800 --> 01:10:40,480
Speaker 5: is outside the top one hundred in numerous categories. Coverage,

1485
01:10:40,560 --> 01:10:43,679
Speaker 5: explosive play, line yards, on the ground and through the air.

1486
01:10:43,920 --> 01:10:46,200
Speaker 5: They're not a will cover anything. I like Maryland, but

1487
01:10:46,200 --> 01:10:47,599
Speaker 5: I will sit and wait for the market to give

1488
01:10:47,600 --> 01:10:48,320
Speaker 5: me a better number.

1489
01:10:48,800 --> 01:10:54,439
Speaker 2: Prado. That's what Maryland does, all right. Moving on to

1490
01:10:54,920 --> 01:11:00,080
Speaker 2: second down, let's talk overdogs and underdogs. Let's start with

1491
01:11:00,120 --> 01:11:04,400
Speaker 2: our favorite overdog of the weekend. For those not familiar podcasts,

1492
01:11:04,400 --> 01:11:06,040
Speaker 2: Inside Joke, it's our favorite favorite.

1493
01:11:06,160 --> 01:11:07,759
Speaker 4: It's called the overdogs parlay.

1494
01:11:08,080 --> 01:11:09,720
Speaker 2: By the way, I didn't even play the last two

1495
01:11:09,720 --> 01:11:12,519
Speaker 2: that I gave out Louisville and then Indiana last week.

1496
01:11:12,840 --> 01:11:15,479
Speaker 2: We just I think they did get two special teams

1497
01:11:15,520 --> 01:11:18,519
Speaker 2: touchdowns but covered against id Oh favorite overdog. I mean

1498
01:11:18,520 --> 01:11:20,280
Speaker 2: I have a lot of favorites today on the open

1499
01:11:20,560 --> 01:11:22,960
Speaker 2: this week. Uh, you know some good numbers. I mean,

1500
01:11:23,000 --> 01:11:24,960
Speaker 2: I have West Virginia minus two and a half. I

1501
01:11:24,960 --> 01:11:27,519
Speaker 2: guess that's still out there. I have Arizona State minus

1502
01:11:27,520 --> 01:11:30,639
Speaker 2: two and a half, Georgia State minus two and a half,

1503
01:11:31,040 --> 01:11:32,800
Speaker 2: a lot of minus two and a half. But I

1504
01:11:32,840 --> 01:11:35,160
Speaker 2: guess you know those aren't real favorites. I guess I'll

1505
01:11:35,160 --> 01:11:38,639
Speaker 2: give out Miami, who already talked about laying under a touchdown.

1506
01:11:38,800 --> 01:11:40,960
Speaker 2: I don't think that this Michigan State team, this Misican

1507
01:11:41,000 --> 01:11:43,120
Speaker 2: State team is getting too much love for. I know

1508
01:11:43,160 --> 01:11:45,439
Speaker 2: Peyton Thorn is look good, but they all they've done

1509
01:11:45,479 --> 01:11:49,439
Speaker 2: is beat Northwestern, and I think that people are miss

1510
01:11:50,240 --> 01:11:53,599
Speaker 2: There was a misleading final score against app State. For Miami.

1511
01:11:54,120 --> 01:11:56,360
Speaker 2: Run defense has been good. I'll make Peyton Thorn beat

1512
01:11:56,400 --> 01:11:58,639
Speaker 2: me through the air. How about you a favorite overdog?

1513
01:11:58,800 --> 01:12:00,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm gonna take u a B. This is a

1514
01:12:00,640 --> 01:12:03,160
Speaker 5: great spot to buy them. I said last week that

1515
01:12:03,360 --> 01:12:05,719
Speaker 5: I took UAB out of principal at twenty eight against

1516
01:12:05,760 --> 01:12:09,120
Speaker 5: Georgia because that number should be down more around twenty two.

1517
01:12:09,240 --> 01:12:12,519
Speaker 5: And guess what, after announcement of JT. Daniels not being

1518
01:12:12,520 --> 01:12:14,519
Speaker 5: in the game and a couple of little bit of

1519
01:12:14,520 --> 01:12:16,040
Speaker 5: COVID scared the a couple of the Georgia players, the

1520
01:12:16,120 --> 01:12:18,599
Speaker 5: number actually settled down around where I had it projected.

1521
01:12:18,840 --> 01:12:20,360
Speaker 5: And I came back and hit Georgia and had no

1522
01:12:20,400 --> 01:12:23,639
Speaker 5: problems with that either. Because Bill Clark doesn't cover against

1523
01:12:23,720 --> 01:12:26,880
Speaker 5: Power five teams Texas, A and M tennessee Georgia. There's

1524
01:12:26,880 --> 01:12:29,840
Speaker 5: just a running list of Power five teams where UAB

1525
01:12:30,000 --> 01:12:32,200
Speaker 5: doesn't show up. But you know what they can do,

1526
01:12:32,200 --> 01:12:34,800
Speaker 5: dominate teams in their conference and dominate teams in the

1527
01:12:34,800 --> 01:12:37,559
Speaker 5: G five. We are getting a discount rate on UAB

1528
01:12:38,080 --> 01:12:40,920
Speaker 5: against the North Texas team that is struggling in areas

1529
01:12:40,960 --> 01:12:42,719
Speaker 5: that they haven't struggled with before one hundred and twenty

1530
01:12:42,720 --> 01:12:45,000
Speaker 5: fifth and pass blocking. They're not able to protect their

1531
01:12:45,040 --> 01:12:48,120
Speaker 5: quarterback whatsoever. Their passing success rate is sixty first. That's

1532
01:12:48,280 --> 01:12:51,360
Speaker 5: very un North Texas. Like, there's a lot of holes here.

1533
01:12:51,400 --> 01:12:54,800
Speaker 5: I mean North Texas defensively bottom ten and defending explosive play.

1534
01:12:55,160 --> 01:12:56,759
Speaker 5: I think Bill Clark is going to put the hammer

1535
01:12:56,800 --> 01:12:59,200
Speaker 5: down here on the road. They did not put any

1536
01:12:59,200 --> 01:13:00,920
Speaker 5: effort into that Georgia game. I think they moved on

1537
01:13:00,960 --> 01:13:02,760
Speaker 5: to North Texas before they even stepped foot on that

1538
01:13:02,800 --> 01:13:03,599
Speaker 5: field last week.

1539
01:13:04,240 --> 01:13:09,000
Speaker 2: Fair enough, and let's move on to our favorite money line.

1540
01:13:08,800 --> 01:13:17,479
Speaker 6: Underdog turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

1541
01:13:17,520 --> 01:13:19,080
Speaker 6: the money line parlay.

1542
01:13:20,520 --> 01:13:26,320
Speaker 2: I'll start. Let's go into Sunday twelve thirty am Eastern

1543
01:13:26,720 --> 01:13:28,840
Speaker 2: post midnight. I think this game is on FS one.

1544
01:13:29,320 --> 01:13:33,720
Speaker 2: Let's go with Hawaii on campus playing San Jose State. Well,

1545
01:13:33,720 --> 01:13:36,240
Speaker 2: he's catching six and a half seven, another dog. I

1546
01:13:36,320 --> 01:13:37,800
Speaker 2: liked that you can get seven or above. These two

1547
01:13:37,840 --> 01:13:41,479
Speaker 2: teams played last year in December, and San Jose State,

1548
01:13:41,880 --> 01:13:44,040
Speaker 2: who had three weeks to prepare you to cancel games,

1549
01:13:44,600 --> 01:13:46,320
Speaker 2: was a two and a half point favor These teams

1550
01:13:46,320 --> 01:13:48,960
Speaker 2: haven't changed that much now they were laying seven, don't

1551
01:13:49,000 --> 01:13:51,040
Speaker 2: think so. And I was actually lower on San Jose

1552
01:13:51,120 --> 01:13:53,240
Speaker 2: State coming into this year because they lost their two

1553
01:13:53,680 --> 01:13:55,960
Speaker 2: star receivers. I think it's really gonna hurt their offense.

1554
01:13:56,120 --> 01:13:58,160
Speaker 2: And now you look back against USC, they only scored

1555
01:13:58,200 --> 01:14:00,960
Speaker 2: seven points. That looks a lot worse after what Tanner

1556
01:14:01,000 --> 01:14:04,920
Speaker 2: McKee did the USC the week after. This Hawaii team

1557
01:14:04,960 --> 01:14:09,360
Speaker 2: new offensive coordinator, had some growing pains early. You know,

1558
01:14:09,400 --> 01:14:12,880
Speaker 2: I think that they could take some momentum and something

1559
01:14:12,920 --> 01:14:15,559
Speaker 2: from that second half against Oregon State where the offense

1560
01:14:15,600 --> 01:14:19,479
Speaker 2: started to get rolling. They can cover these receivers after.

1561
01:14:19,600 --> 01:14:22,639
Speaker 2: You know, it's a downgraded receiving group. San Jase State

1562
01:14:22,760 --> 01:14:25,400
Speaker 2: might have a lot of success on the ground. Do

1563
01:14:25,520 --> 01:14:27,160
Speaker 2: worry about that a bit, but I think there's value

1564
01:14:27,160 --> 01:14:29,920
Speaker 2: in this number. Give me the bows. And you know

1565
01:14:29,960 --> 01:14:31,840
Speaker 2: it's Hawaii on the island. Weird things happen. They're a

1566
01:14:31,880 --> 01:14:35,040
Speaker 2: different animal there. So I'm rolling with Hawaii. How about you.

1567
01:14:35,240 --> 01:14:37,600
Speaker 5: I'm gonna go to the Memphis against Mississipi State. Mississippi

1568
01:14:37,600 --> 01:14:40,599
Speaker 5: State's got some overlook to LSU here, short road trip

1569
01:14:40,680 --> 01:14:42,840
Speaker 5: up I fifty five to go play in the Liberty Bowl.

1570
01:14:43,560 --> 01:14:46,080
Speaker 5: As Memphis team, they've They've put up ninety seven points

1571
01:14:46,080 --> 01:14:49,280
Speaker 5: against Nichols and Arkansas State so far. Memphis is sixth

1572
01:14:49,320 --> 01:14:51,519
Speaker 5: in tempo and their top fifteen a big play rate

1573
01:14:51,560 --> 01:14:54,479
Speaker 5: and havoc allowed. This offense is humming under a freshman

1574
01:14:54,560 --> 01:14:57,880
Speaker 5: quarterback Seth Pinnigan. He just threw for four hundred yards

1575
01:14:57,880 --> 01:15:00,920
Speaker 5: and five tds against Arkansas State and so far no

1576
01:15:01,120 --> 01:15:02,240
Speaker 5: turnover worthy plays.

1577
01:15:02,280 --> 01:15:03,080
Speaker 4: That's the important thing.

1578
01:15:03,120 --> 01:15:04,919
Speaker 5: I mean, I consider and look at yards and touchdowns

1579
01:15:04,920 --> 01:15:07,120
Speaker 5: all day, but the fact that this freshman kid hasn't

1580
01:15:07,160 --> 01:15:09,799
Speaker 5: put his team in harm or had any turnover worthy

1581
01:15:09,800 --> 01:15:13,479
Speaker 5: plays is notable. And eleven pressure dropbacks says it just

1582
01:15:13,560 --> 01:15:17,599
Speaker 5: a completion percentage is actually jumps. It jumps like ten percent,

1583
01:15:17,960 --> 01:15:20,479
Speaker 5: eighty seven percent when he's in a crowded pocket. That's

1584
01:15:20,720 --> 01:15:23,200
Speaker 5: some impressive stuff from a freshman. Missippi State is one

1585
01:15:23,280 --> 01:15:25,639
Speaker 5: hundred and twenty third and third down conversions. Leech said

1586
01:15:25,640 --> 01:15:27,600
Speaker 5: it in his press for this week. Not comfortable with

1587
01:15:27,600 --> 01:15:28,880
Speaker 5: what's going on in third downs.

1588
01:15:29,280 --> 01:15:31,120
Speaker 2: I don't know. That's a great point. We were like

1589
01:15:31,240 --> 01:15:34,760
Speaker 2: one of the most constipated offenses on earth, and you

1590
01:15:34,960 --> 01:15:35,519
Speaker 2: know we.

1591
01:15:37,200 --> 01:15:39,679
Speaker 5: He's converting just twenty three percent on twenty one attempts

1592
01:15:39,720 --> 01:15:41,760
Speaker 5: so far this year. And let's not forget that box

1593
01:15:41,760 --> 01:15:44,120
Speaker 5: score against since he stayed just complete fraud in it.

1594
01:15:44,320 --> 01:15:47,120
Speaker 5: Three turnovers, the first one being an interception at the

1595
01:15:47,120 --> 01:15:50,479
Speaker 5: Mississippi State five fumble later, on by NC State turned

1596
01:15:50,479 --> 01:15:53,640
Speaker 5: into a touchdown from Mississippi State. They were outgained and

1597
01:15:53,720 --> 01:15:56,759
Speaker 5: outplayed from a third down conversion, number of first downs.

1598
01:15:56,760 --> 01:15:59,400
Speaker 5: Like everywhere on the board, NC State won that game,

1599
01:15:59,400 --> 01:16:02,120
Speaker 5: except on this board. The Memphis defense isn't anything to

1600
01:16:02,120 --> 01:16:03,960
Speaker 5: write home about. I mean, the give of fifty at

1601
01:16:04,040 --> 01:16:06,760
Speaker 5: Arkansas State. But you know there are things that are

1602
01:16:06,800 --> 01:16:09,400
Speaker 5: notable here. Memphis is running a three three five defense.

1603
01:16:09,439 --> 01:16:11,280
Speaker 5: That's what you have to run against an air raider Mike

1604
01:16:11,400 --> 01:16:15,599
Speaker 5: Leach to have any kind of success whatsoever. Plus, Memphis

1605
01:16:15,600 --> 01:16:18,439
Speaker 5: generated seven tackles for loss and six quarterback hurries against

1606
01:16:18,520 --> 01:16:21,400
Speaker 5: Arkansas State. I know this is an SEC offensive line.

1607
01:16:21,840 --> 01:16:22,360
Speaker 4: I get it.

1608
01:16:22,720 --> 01:16:24,599
Speaker 5: But at the same time, but the tempo that Memphis

1609
01:16:24,640 --> 01:16:27,040
Speaker 5: is playing on the level of this kid is throwing

1610
01:16:27,120 --> 01:16:30,160
Speaker 5: the fact that he hasn't thrown any turnover worthy plays whatsoever.

1611
01:16:30,560 --> 01:16:32,519
Speaker 5: This is going to be a shootout. I got Memphis

1612
01:16:32,520 --> 01:16:32,760
Speaker 5: in it.

1613
01:16:33,200 --> 01:16:34,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind that at all. I've been really

1614
01:16:34,560 --> 01:16:37,439
Speaker 2: impressed with Seth Henniga in the freshman So we'll see

1615
01:16:37,479 --> 01:16:40,639
Speaker 2: how that turns out. And you said that Mississippi State

1616
01:16:41,080 --> 01:16:43,639
Speaker 2: might be due for a couple breaks that go against

1617
01:16:43,720 --> 01:16:46,200
Speaker 2: them After that, NC State game. All right, before we

1618
01:16:46,200 --> 01:16:49,720
Speaker 2: get out of here, we got one last order of business.

1619
01:16:49,920 --> 01:16:53,000
Speaker 2: Let's go to third down. And that's our favorite bat.

1620
01:16:53,640 --> 01:16:57,120
Speaker 2: My favorite bat of the weekend. I wonder if you

1621
01:16:57,120 --> 01:17:01,840
Speaker 2: can guess it. The Georgia Southern Eagles. Colin let me

1622
01:17:01,880 --> 01:17:04,160
Speaker 2: get talked about the spot for Arkansas. Obviously it's an

1623
01:17:04,160 --> 01:17:06,280
Speaker 2: awful spot. They beat Texas that Texas A and M

1624
01:17:06,280 --> 01:17:09,799
Speaker 2: on decket, followed by two more SEC ranked opponents. Georgia

1625
01:17:09,840 --> 01:17:12,040
Speaker 2: Southern gets their quarterback back. I'd throw out a lot

1626
01:17:12,040 --> 01:17:14,800
Speaker 2: of their first two results. Didn't have a quarterback to

1627
01:17:14,880 --> 01:17:17,920
Speaker 2: run this triple option. They're starting quarterback Justin Tomlin was

1628
01:17:17,960 --> 01:17:21,400
Speaker 2: academically and eligible. He's now back. They got embarrassed last

1629
01:17:21,400 --> 01:17:23,320
Speaker 2: week by Florida Atlantic, but the final score is a

1630
01:17:23,320 --> 01:17:25,360
Speaker 2: bitness leading. It was six to nothing, they were driving

1631
01:17:25,360 --> 01:17:28,720
Speaker 2: to go up fourteen to nothing, fumble, quarterback, injury to

1632
01:17:28,800 --> 01:17:31,559
Speaker 2: their backup, and then it all fell apart. I think

1633
01:17:31,600 --> 01:17:36,400
Speaker 2: Georgia Southern comes out can actually function in their triple

1634
01:17:36,400 --> 01:17:39,800
Speaker 2: option offense. They'll eat up clock. It's hard to cover

1635
01:17:40,200 --> 01:17:43,919
Speaker 2: a twenty four point spread against the triple option offense.

1636
01:17:44,240 --> 01:17:46,160
Speaker 2: So I'm trusting that this steorda Southern will be able

1637
01:17:46,160 --> 01:17:48,479
Speaker 2: to put together some drives and then look Arkansas. They

1638
01:17:48,520 --> 01:17:52,400
Speaker 2: get a big lead, big backdoor opportunity if if necessary.

1639
01:17:52,600 --> 01:17:56,960
Speaker 2: Georgia Southern plus twenty four. Yatta, where are you going.

1640
01:17:58,240 --> 01:18:00,160
Speaker 5: With a straight face? Right into mind, I'm gonna le's

1641
01:18:00,160 --> 01:18:01,480
Speaker 5: say Florida straight.

1642
01:18:01,120 --> 01:18:04,519
Speaker 2: Face and hey, look, don't get that. Don't don't don't.

1643
01:18:04,680 --> 01:18:06,720
Speaker 2: That's around in the first half. Georgia Southern did win

1644
01:18:06,760 --> 01:18:08,080
Speaker 2: at Florida.

1645
01:18:07,520 --> 01:18:10,880
Speaker 5: But yeah, I'm gonna go with Florida fourteen and a

1646
01:18:10,920 --> 01:18:13,519
Speaker 5: half plus fourteen and a half via win bet. There

1647
01:18:13,560 --> 01:18:16,559
Speaker 5: are sometimes college football players come around and they do

1648
01:18:16,680 --> 01:18:20,680
Speaker 5: things that are just you can't mathematically quantify.

1649
01:18:20,160 --> 01:18:20,920
Speaker 4: What it is they're doing.

1650
01:18:20,920 --> 01:18:24,160
Speaker 5: And Anthony Richardson is that new product in college football.

1651
01:18:24,479 --> 01:18:27,240
Speaker 5: He does backflips, he jumps over kids when he's running

1652
01:18:27,280 --> 01:18:31,480
Speaker 5: the ball. He's averaging eleven point nine yards after contact.

1653
01:18:32,160 --> 01:18:34,720
Speaker 5: Nobody can bring him down, nobody can catch him, and

1654
01:18:34,760 --> 01:18:37,760
Speaker 5: he's the backup quarterback. Emery Jones is going to start

1655
01:18:37,760 --> 01:18:40,160
Speaker 5: for the Florida Gators, but he puts his team in

1656
01:18:40,200 --> 01:18:42,599
Speaker 5: harm's way. He's as six turnover worthy plays and Anthony

1657
01:18:42,680 --> 01:18:45,400
Speaker 5: Richardson's had zero. Now that I've heard from Dan Mullen

1658
01:18:45,439 --> 01:18:48,679
Speaker 5: that Anthony Richardson is healthy and the hamstring tweak isn't

1659
01:18:48,720 --> 01:18:50,559
Speaker 5: really that much of a going to hamper him from

1660
01:18:50,600 --> 01:18:52,960
Speaker 5: running the ball. You can expect Florida to own the

1661
01:18:53,000 --> 01:18:55,080
Speaker 5: trench on both sides of the ball. And that's a

1662
01:18:55,160 --> 01:18:58,200
Speaker 5: large statement against Alabama. But if you listen to Nick Saban,

1663
01:18:58,520 --> 01:19:00,719
Speaker 5: seventeen penalties already this year, he's in for one hundred

1664
01:19:00,720 --> 01:19:03,120
Speaker 5: and seventy six yards. He's not happy with the state

1665
01:19:03,160 --> 01:19:04,040
Speaker 5: of this football team.

1666
01:19:04,160 --> 01:19:05,840
Speaker 2: And I'm gonna tell you what if I had a

1667
01:19:05,840 --> 01:19:08,200
Speaker 2: barometer up yards to say whether you were give an

1668
01:19:08,200 --> 01:19:11,000
Speaker 2: effort or not, there was about fifty percent. Why did

1669
01:19:11,000 --> 01:19:11,879
Speaker 2: you push yourself?

1670
01:19:12,200 --> 01:19:14,400
Speaker 5: And the defense has lost Christopher Allen, one of their

1671
01:19:14,400 --> 01:19:17,439
Speaker 5: best edge defenders. Now Will Anderson, the other edge defender,

1672
01:19:17,479 --> 01:19:19,639
Speaker 5: is having a knee problem, and they may be out

1673
01:19:19,920 --> 01:19:22,360
Speaker 5: one of their pieces in the secondary. I like Florida

1674
01:19:22,400 --> 01:19:24,439
Speaker 5: to cover the fourteen and a half. I think they're

1675
01:19:24,439 --> 01:19:26,400
Speaker 5: gonna give Alabama a hell of a scare this week.

1676
01:19:26,960 --> 01:19:29,519
Speaker 2: First road star for Bryce Young in the swamp. I

1677
01:19:29,520 --> 01:19:31,280
Speaker 2: can't wait for the fens. I agree with you. Anything

1678
01:19:31,280 --> 01:19:33,679
Speaker 2: over two touchdowns, all right, that'll do it for us.

1679
01:19:34,280 --> 01:19:36,880
Speaker 2: Thank you for listening. Thanks as always to Colin for

1680
01:19:37,000 --> 01:19:40,240
Speaker 2: all of his great insight. Make sure you subscribe, unsubscribe,

1681
01:19:40,240 --> 01:19:43,599
Speaker 2: subscribe Big Bets on campus. Wherever you listen to a podcast, review,

1682
01:19:43,680 --> 01:19:47,880
Speaker 2: leave a review rating five star. I'll promise I'll do giveaways,

1683
01:19:48,080 --> 01:19:50,240
Speaker 2: so we'll give away a bunch of stuff. Producer send

1684
01:19:50,240 --> 01:19:52,200
Speaker 2: me the best ones. I'll find some good ones too,

1685
01:19:52,840 --> 01:19:54,960
Speaker 2: so make sure you leave a review. Let's have a

1686
01:19:55,000 --> 01:19:57,160
Speaker 2: big weekend. We will catch you all later.

1687
01:19:57,360 --> 01:20:01,799
Speaker 4: Cheers, peace out,