1 00:00:01,160 --> 00:00:03,320 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 2 00:00:03,360 --> 00:00:06,600 Speaker 1: your bets. This be Joey p Joe Pisa, Pia, and 3 00:00:06,760 --> 00:00:10,920 Speaker 1: this is BP NFL joining me today. It's gonna be 4 00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: every single Tuesday. My dude Sam Hoppin is gonna be 5 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:16,079 Speaker 1: with us and we're gonna do a little bit of 6 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:18,800 Speaker 1: a deep dive this episode. Every week is gonna be 7 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:21,320 Speaker 1: a little different. So on Mondays you get that look 8 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:23,960 Speaker 1: ahead show with Ericson and myself. Later in the week, 9 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:26,600 Speaker 1: Terrell's gonna show up do props with us with the 10 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:28,600 Speaker 1: wels should we got Ericson back with us for our 11 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 1: favorite picks of the week. We got a lot going on. 12 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:32,839 Speaker 1: The whole team's gonna be here and plus Bog and 13 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 1: I every Wednesday breaking down the Thursday night game. But 14 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:38,640 Speaker 1: today's show is gonna be one that every single week 15 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 1: you're not gonna wanna miss because what we're gonna be 16 00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:42,159 Speaker 1: doing is we're gonna be going through some of the 17 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:45,839 Speaker 1: line movement that's going on. Ask ourselves, why is this happening? 18 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 1: Should we be following it? Should we be running in 19 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 1: the other direction. We're gonna talk about some of the 20 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:52,479 Speaker 1: injuries that are gonna impact some of the bets we 21 00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:54,319 Speaker 1: might make when it comes to games, when it comes 22 00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: to individual player props, and we're also gonna look ahead 23 00:00:56,960 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: for your survivor pools and a whole lot more. And 24 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 1: to help me do it is the man in the lab. 25 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:05,480 Speaker 1: It's Sam Hoppin, who those of you aren't familiar with 26 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 1: Sam's work. He is our projections analyst guy, our resident 27 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 1: stats guru over at Fantasy Pro slash betting Pros and Sam, 28 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 1: I'm very excited about this show this year because this 29 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 1: is you and me nerding out a little bit and 30 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 1: taking those numbers and turning them into dollar signs, and that, 31 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:24,279 Speaker 1: to me, is what this show is going to be about. 32 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 1: So with that being said, how's all the data going? 33 00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:28,119 Speaker 2: Has? 34 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:30,479 Speaker 1: Has the computer crashed yet in week one? Or are 35 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 1: we're still like uploading things into the CPU brain that 36 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 1: is Sam Hoppin. 37 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:39,120 Speaker 2: It hasn't crashed quite yet, or we're going to be 38 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 2: running some test Friday once we get some new data 39 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:46,440 Speaker 2: from the Thursday night football game to make sure things 40 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:50,720 Speaker 2: are running smoothly. But very excited. Let's get my hands 41 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:56,400 Speaker 2: on some NFL data because it's been seven months since 42 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 2: we've had that, and obviously I've had a lot of 43 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 2: changing things over the NFL offseason. It'll be nice this 44 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 2: year too. Last year we recorded on Mondays. This year 45 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:10,960 Speaker 2: I'll have an entire Monday and Tuesday morning to sift 46 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 2: through it all and get it all in everyone's ears. 47 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 1: Glorious. And of course, you know, a lot of stuff 48 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:19,080 Speaker 1: early on has to do a lot of twenty twenty 49 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 1: three data, a lot of projections going on to so 50 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 1: the more we get into the season, the more I 51 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 1: think the show's gonna be very beneficial to folks who 52 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 1: are out there. And if you haven't already, make sure 53 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:30,639 Speaker 1: you subscribe to Betting Pros Wherever Gear podcast. 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And the 73 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 1: more actions you complete, the more entries you get and 74 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:31,800 Speaker 1: you will receive to win the Nick Chubb helmet. So again, 75 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:34,720 Speaker 1: very simple. Takes you two seconds to fill out the 76 00:03:34,720 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 1: form Bettingpros dot com slash contest, do that, and then boom, 77 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 1: all of a sudden, that Nick Chubb helmet can be yours. 78 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 1: So it's week one. Let's get into it, and let's 79 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 1: start with the Bengals and Patriots because the Jamar Chase 80 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 1: situation is one that everyone's got their attention on. We 81 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 1: are recording this Tuesday morning early I'm of the mind 82 00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 1: that Jamar Chase and the Bengal's gonna work things out 83 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 1: regardless he's gonna be on the field. But Sam Le's 84 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:03,000 Speaker 1: talk about this because whenever there's uncertainty with a big 85 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 1: player like Jamar Chase, there tends to be uncertainty then 86 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 1: in the marketplace. So what are you seeing in that 87 00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 1: betting landscape in that game that people should be paying 88 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:10,160 Speaker 1: attention to. 89 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, like you said, I agree that I think Chase 90 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:17,280 Speaker 2: suits up for this game and does end up playing. 91 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:21,920 Speaker 2: Diana Russini from The Athletic said that the Bengals are 92 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 2: still game planning as if Chase plays. But I think 93 00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:31,479 Speaker 2: Jamar Chase is one of the few non quarterback players 94 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 2: who could move a line half a point or a 95 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 2: point if he were to miss a game, And part 96 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:42,600 Speaker 2: of that is because of the depth behind him in 97 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:45,640 Speaker 2: the wide receiver core. For Cincinnati, they don't quite have 98 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:48,799 Speaker 2: the same group that they did in years past. Tyler 99 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:52,520 Speaker 2: Board obviously left in free agency. Now with the Titans, 100 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:55,800 Speaker 2: they still have t Higgins, But if you remove Chase 101 00:04:56,080 --> 00:05:01,159 Speaker 2: from that situation, you're looking at a bottom five to 102 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 2: seven wide receiver group in the NFL. So it's something 103 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:10,320 Speaker 2: that I'm monitoring. Their massive favorites. We'll get to them 104 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 2: a little bit later in this show, so it's not 105 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 2: gonna flip them to being underdogs by any means, but 106 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 2: it could drive the spread down to maybe eight and 107 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 2: a half or eight. So something I'm certainly monitoring over 108 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 2: the next couple of days. 109 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, certainly should make a lot of impact. Now one 110 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 1: other question too, just to follow up on that. If 111 00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 1: let's say Chase doesn't play, let's run that scenario, do 112 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 1: you then run to t Higgins props? Do you look 113 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:42,359 Speaker 1: for maybe a little bit more work from the running 114 00:05:42,400 --> 00:05:44,280 Speaker 1: backs in terms of some of the individual wagers that 115 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 1: he might make in that game, depending on the Chase 116 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 1: situation if he is unavailable. 117 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:52,039 Speaker 2: So I think I'd actually lean into some of the 118 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:56,800 Speaker 2: backups that would fill in for Jamar Chase, andre Yoshavas, 119 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:04,599 Speaker 2: Jermaine Burton again in these uncertain situations play for upside. 120 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 2: So taking some alternate receiving totals for some of those players, 121 00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:12,719 Speaker 2: you'll probably get fifty plus seventy five plus receiving yards 122 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:15,920 Speaker 2: for some of those players. And again we wouldn't know 123 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:20,599 Speaker 2: how those receiver props excuse me the receiver usage is 124 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 2: going to work out in that situation, So leaning a 125 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 2: bit into variants, shooting for upside in that situation. 126 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:30,960 Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the next game here and 127 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 1: talk about some line movement. Let's talk about the Browns 128 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:35,840 Speaker 1: and the Cowboys. When Andrew and I talked about this 129 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 1: on the show earlier this week for the look ahead lines. 130 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:41,600 Speaker 1: If you miss that, go check it out. It's over 131 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:43,719 Speaker 1: on the channel or wherever you get your pods. Really 132 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 1: good breakdown of all the games. Our first take on 133 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:48,440 Speaker 1: everything my first day is that this line is completely 134 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:50,800 Speaker 1: wrong in terms of inversion I got I would be 135 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 1: favoring the Cowboys. I don't know if it was the 136 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 1: dragging of the Ceede Lamb situation that was holding things 137 00:06:55,560 --> 00:06:58,720 Speaker 1: back Sam or what, but that line has moved even 138 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:02,839 Speaker 1: further towards the So that being said, what do you 139 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:05,719 Speaker 1: make of this? Is this an opportunity or maybe we 140 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:08,760 Speaker 1: should be revisiting the Browns at home? How do you 141 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:11,000 Speaker 1: make this game out? Because this one to me still 142 00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 1: is puzzling. I just think the wrong team is favored. 143 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:15,440 Speaker 1: But what do you think I agree? 144 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 2: I mean, I know Cleveland's at home, but this game 145 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 2: opened with Cleveland as one point favorites, they're now two 146 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 2: and a half point favorites. It hasn't crossed three, so 147 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 2: where it's not a huge shift that one and a 148 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 2: half point as if it was going from two to 149 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:35,000 Speaker 2: three and a half. But if that line gets two 150 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 2: three or crosses three, I'm taking the Cowboys in a heartbeat. 151 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 2: I think if this stays at two and a half, 152 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 2: teasing the Cowboys out to eight and a half with 153 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:48,200 Speaker 2: another teaser leg is another great option because, like you said, 154 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 2: I think this line should be reversed and maybe that 155 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 2: that spread moving had to do with some of the 156 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:02,320 Speaker 2: CD LAMB uncertainty and that hasn't just hasn't been reflected 157 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:06,680 Speaker 2: in the line yet. The same potentially with Dak Prescott 158 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 2: in his contract situation and wondering if he maybe holds out, 159 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 2: But seems like there's some market resistance right now with 160 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:16,880 Speaker 2: the line staying at two and a half. Dallas is 161 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 2: one of the more top heavy teams in the league 162 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 2: with sort of a stars and scrubs roster build right now, 163 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 2: but that doesn't matter because they're all healthy. They're all 164 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 2: going to be playing in this game. So I like 165 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:33,719 Speaker 2: the Brown or excuse me, the Cowboys outright to win 166 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:35,640 Speaker 2: this game. I think they are a great teaser. Leg 167 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 2: would even think about taking them on an alternate spread, 168 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:43,800 Speaker 2: you know, maybe minus six or something like that to 169 00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:45,559 Speaker 2: just beat the Browns outright. 170 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:49,040 Speaker 1: Love that. Right now, I'm looking on betting pros at 171 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:50,959 Speaker 1: bet three six five. That's the best place you can 172 00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 1: get the money line for the Dallas Cowboys plus one 173 00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:56,319 Speaker 1: twenty five. So even just right straight there, I mean, 174 00:08:56,400 --> 00:08:59,240 Speaker 1: right now you're getting even money on ESPN bet at 175 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:02,559 Speaker 1: plus two and a half on the Cowboys. I'm with you. 176 00:09:02,880 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 1: And it's always good when you know the gut instinct 177 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:10,120 Speaker 1: guy here, which is me somehow aligns with the hard 178 00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:13,840 Speaker 1: math guy that Sam hoppin to me, that's a good 179 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 1: bet right there. When you can get those two things, 180 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 1: those two feelings, the left side of the right side 181 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:19,679 Speaker 1: of the brain all work at the same time, that 182 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 1: usually is a good thing. Let's talk about the third 183 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 1: game here that we're going to preview and do a 184 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 1: little bit of a deep dive here in line movement. 185 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:27,440 Speaker 1: It's the forty nine Ers and Jets, and I'm somebody 186 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:31,680 Speaker 1: that's fading the forty nine Ers long term over the season. 187 00:09:31,880 --> 00:09:35,320 Speaker 1: Because we'll talk more about that later on. But I'm 188 00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:38,280 Speaker 1: also looking short term in this week, and I think 189 00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:39,800 Speaker 1: this is going to be a very tall order for 190 00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 1: the Jets to go across the country standalone football game. 191 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:47,760 Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers hasn't played a lick in the preseason, he 192 00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:50,400 Speaker 1: hasn't played football in over a year. I don't this 193 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 1: is a really tall order here. Let's talk about this 194 00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 1: game too and what other pieces might be impacting it 195 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:55,920 Speaker 1: in your opinion. 196 00:09:57,480 --> 00:10:02,440 Speaker 2: So this year's been the summer of the holdouts from 197 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 2: not just for the forty nine ers, but for a 198 00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 2: number of teams, including the Jets. The Jets trader for 199 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:11,080 Speaker 2: Hassan Redick, he's not in the building right now. Robert 200 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:14,400 Speaker 2: Sala hasn't talked to him in months from what I 201 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:18,320 Speaker 2: saw this morning. And the forty nine ers have figured 202 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:21,640 Speaker 2: out their situations, which is the big part. They've signed 203 00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:24,079 Speaker 2: Brandon I you to an extension this morning, they got 204 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 2: a Trent Williams deal done. This line moved from the 205 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:30,439 Speaker 2: forty nine ers favored by five and a half to 206 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:32,920 Speaker 2: now favored by three and a half. So again we're 207 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:37,680 Speaker 2: not crossing key numbers here, but it doesn't make sense 208 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:42,120 Speaker 2: why it hasn't rebounded to the forty nine ers being 209 00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:45,760 Speaker 2: favored by more Christian McCaffrey. I believe was back practicing 210 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:50,920 Speaker 2: yesterday or today, so his potential injury concern is no 211 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:53,840 Speaker 2: longer a concern. Maybe he just doesn't get the full workload, 212 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:59,320 Speaker 2: but still not a major issue in my eyes. Mike Williams, 213 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:01,320 Speaker 2: who were going to talk about a little bit later, 214 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 2: it's also healthy and expected to play in Week one, 215 00:11:04,320 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 2: but it doesn't really I don't know where the two 216 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:12,600 Speaker 2: points movement came from, and the fact that it hasn't rebounded, 217 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:16,000 Speaker 2: because I think this spread is it's probably closer to 218 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 2: four four and a half. But I do think the 219 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 2: two points may have been just kind of a weird 220 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:24,280 Speaker 2: mood move to me. 221 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:26,240 Speaker 1: Do you think I'm trying to think of what that 222 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:28,960 Speaker 1: reasoning might be, and the only thing that comes to mind, 223 00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 1: I don't know. You could shoot it down if you want, 224 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:34,560 Speaker 1: is that the Jets, they are a New York team. 225 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:36,839 Speaker 1: New York teams typically very public. People see all of 226 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 1: a sudden, it's Aaron Rodgers. The Jets a really good defense. 227 00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 1: It just to be able to go out there and 228 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:43,080 Speaker 1: be competitive. Five and a half is too big of 229 00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:46,080 Speaker 1: a number. I think that's the only narrative that I 230 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 1: can build for this. But I think it's a really 231 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 1: bad one because if you're talking about talent on roster, 232 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:53,280 Speaker 1: especially week one here, we're not dealing with a lot 233 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 1: of injuries. Like you said, McCaffrey's gonna play, I don't get it. 234 00:11:57,760 --> 00:11:59,680 Speaker 1: And to me, I think this is a team that 235 00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:03,079 Speaker 1: is going to outclass the Jets. And sorry Jet fans, 236 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 1: but I just think that's what we're looking at right here, 237 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:06,920 Speaker 1: especially in Week one. If this was in New York, 238 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 1: maybe I'd feel differently about it, but it's not. It's 239 00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:11,800 Speaker 1: San Francisco with a team that has a sour taste 240 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 1: in their mouth from the Super Bowl. I don't think 241 00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:15,400 Speaker 1: they're gonna lose that. I don't think it'll go out 242 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:17,760 Speaker 1: and embarrassed by the Jets in Week one. I don't 243 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 1: see that happening. But do you think that's the narrative 244 00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 1: out there that the New York public money on the Jets? 245 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:25,440 Speaker 1: Just people thinking, oh, it's Aaron Rodgers and they're gonna 246 00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:27,719 Speaker 1: be competitive this year. But look, it's only Week one. 247 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:29,559 Speaker 1: This is not the time to start being competitive in 248 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:31,679 Speaker 1: the wagering market. Against San Francisco. 249 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:37,040 Speaker 2: I mean it could be people like minded to us 250 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:40,080 Speaker 2: that want to fade the forty nine ers early on 251 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:42,560 Speaker 2: in the season and not just for the long term. 252 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:45,720 Speaker 2: I don't know, if you know. New York being a 253 00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:48,920 Speaker 2: more public team has as much to do with it 254 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 2: as against some of the contract situations that San Francisco 255 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:55,079 Speaker 2: was dealing with. But again, those are figured out now 256 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:58,080 Speaker 2: now the Jets are on the opposite side of things. 257 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:05,280 Speaker 2: So I would inspect this potentially to rebound, but I 258 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 2: don't think we'll get to a point where the fourig 259 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:12,359 Speaker 2: nine ers are favored by three or less. 260 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:14,960 Speaker 1: More of the forty nine ers. In a second, because 261 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:16,760 Speaker 1: we're going to look into the future every week on 262 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:18,640 Speaker 1: the show. We're going to do a little futures market stuff, 263 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:22,079 Speaker 1: little wars, a little wind totals, a little conference, a 264 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:24,720 Speaker 1: little division, a little bit of everything. But if you 265 00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 1: want a lot of everything for your draft needs, make 266 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 1: sure that you are going over and working at Betting 267 00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:33,920 Speaker 1: pros app right now, because if you haven't downloaded the 268 00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:36,600 Speaker 1: Betting pros app for iOS with Android, you need to 269 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:40,840 Speaker 1: because sports books you sink them directly. If you're unfamiliar 270 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:42,640 Speaker 1: with the app and how it works. Basically, all you 271 00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:44,320 Speaker 1: do is you have your sports book, you have the 272 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 1: Betting Pros app. You sink them together, and if you 273 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:49,760 Speaker 1: have multiple books that you are a part of, you 274 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:52,640 Speaker 1: have the opportunity to use the Betting Pros app to 275 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:55,520 Speaker 1: find the best line, to make the best wager you 276 00:13:55,559 --> 00:13:58,520 Speaker 1: can to have the most success. It'll automatically track your 277 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:01,240 Speaker 1: bets across all the major sports in one spot. You 278 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:04,120 Speaker 1: can monitor how you're doing by sport, by bet type. 279 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 1: Maybe you're telling you, hey, maybe you should be betting 280 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 1: over unders and maybe a little less of the lines 281 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 1: or maybe a little bit more player props because that's 282 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 1: where you're doing well. But whether it's picks for games, 283 00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:17,960 Speaker 1: whether it's props parlays. You can create custom betting systems 284 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:20,280 Speaker 1: to find winning trends. You could follow some of the 285 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:22,840 Speaker 1: best betters on the site too and just track their 286 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:25,320 Speaker 1: bets and get in. Basically, we're setting you up for 287 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:27,480 Speaker 1: success all year long. So you can get a free 288 00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 1: trial of Betting Pros Premium when you download the Betting 289 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:33,120 Speaker 1: Pros app right now and activate your free trial right 290 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:35,800 Speaker 1: there on the upgrade screen. Again, go to bettingpros dot 291 00:14:35,800 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 1: com or just download the Betting Pros app and you 292 00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:41,720 Speaker 1: get a free trial of the premium service at betting Pros, 293 00:14:41,800 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 1: so you can start betting smarter and stop betting harder. 294 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 1: All right, let's get back to the forty nine ers 295 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:50,880 Speaker 1: discussion here, because in the futures market again, you're fitting them. 296 00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:53,960 Speaker 1: I'm fitting them for the NFC. We watched and done 297 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 1: some of the shows here over on the Betting Pros 298 00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 1: YouTube channel. I've been talking about the Lions. I've been 299 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 1: talking about the Packers, one of those teams kind of 300 00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 1: pushing forward. Atlanta's kind of sneaking interesting, especially after those 301 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:08,400 Speaker 1: defensive ads. But I want to talk to you about 302 00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:10,200 Speaker 1: your forty nine ers Take two because you kind of 303 00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 1: see things the same way. But I want you to 304 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:14,080 Speaker 1: talk about the analytical side and how people can make 305 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 1: money on fading the forty nine ers this year. 306 00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:18,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, so a lot of real quick a lot of 307 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 2: my I guess reasoning for the forty nine ers or 308 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:25,440 Speaker 2: fading the forty nine ers is they were near the 309 00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 2: top in adjusted games lost due to injury, meaning they 310 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:33,040 Speaker 2: were extremely healthy last year. I've already seen Christian McCaffrey 311 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:37,920 Speaker 2: get banged up. Unfortunately, the Rickie pearsoalt situation as well, 312 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 2: which which really really sucks, but good to see that 313 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 2: he's in good condition. But you know, they're also coming 314 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:48,920 Speaker 2: off of a terrible Super Bowl loss. They have done 315 00:15:48,920 --> 00:15:50,960 Speaker 2: the same thing in the past and went six and 316 00:15:51,040 --> 00:15:53,520 Speaker 2: ten the following season. I don't think it's going to 317 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 2: be quite that bad for San Francisco this year, but 318 00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 2: they ran pretty last year with some of the luck 319 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 2: and injury perspective. If you look at the middle of 320 00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 2: their schedule, they face a brutal stretch. I think they 321 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 2: play like four teams coming off of their buy. So 322 00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:14,920 Speaker 2: it's a lot of things contributing to this. And I 323 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 2: want to bet on the forty nine ers not to 324 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:20,680 Speaker 2: win the NFC West. I think that a lot of 325 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 2: these teams are up and coming. The Rams were a 326 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 2: huge surprise last year, could make another step this year. Obviously, 327 00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 2: losing Aer Donald doesn't help. The Seahawks get the new 328 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:35,440 Speaker 2: head coach and they have I think a really solid roster. 329 00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:38,000 Speaker 2: And then the Cardinals, I think are a great deep 330 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:42,520 Speaker 2: sleeper to potentially win this division. Now, the forty nine 331 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 2: Ers not to win the NFC West is a market 332 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 2: available on Circus Sports Book, which is not available super widely. 333 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 2: You can get it at plus one forty five if 334 00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:54,640 Speaker 2: you do have access to that. But another way to 335 00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:59,000 Speaker 2: sort of synthetically create this market is to bet on 336 00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:02,600 Speaker 2: the other three team to win the division. Right now, 337 00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:05,679 Speaker 2: you can get the Cardinals at fourteen to one to 338 00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 2: win the division, the Seahawks at plus eight hundred, and 339 00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:12,040 Speaker 2: the Rams at plus three to fifty. If you split 340 00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:17,159 Speaker 2: your wagers accordingly, you can essentially create a market in 341 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 2: which the forty nine ers not to win the NFC 342 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 2: West is about one plus one forty seven forty eight. 343 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 2: So even if you do have access to circle, this 344 00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:31,160 Speaker 2: might be a better way to go. So the way 345 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:33,919 Speaker 2: it breaks down, you'll want to bet, assuming a one 346 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 2: hundred dollars unit, fifty five dollars on the Rams, twenty 347 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:44,680 Speaker 2: nine dollars on the Seahawks, and sixteen dollars on the Cardinals, 348 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 2: and that's going to create the synthetic market where you 349 00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:51,159 Speaker 2: just need the forty nine ers not to win the 350 00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:54,919 Speaker 2: NFC West, and then based on how much you're betting, 351 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:57,440 Speaker 2: how much you'll get back, and all this sort of stuff, 352 00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:00,680 Speaker 2: it'll net out to about plus one five forty five 353 00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:05,399 Speaker 2: at a minimum. I think if the Rams end up winning. 354 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:08,720 Speaker 1: I love this and this is exactly what this show 355 00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:10,879 Speaker 1: is about. What Sam just laid out for you. So 356 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 1: found something in a market. If you can't get in 357 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:14,919 Speaker 1: that market, here's how you do it in your sports book. 358 00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:17,960 Speaker 1: And look, you and I have the same mind here. 359 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:21,199 Speaker 1: The data really supports that teams that lose the super Bowls, 360 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:25,240 Speaker 1: especially heartbreaking fashion super bowls in overtime, even dare I 361 00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:27,720 Speaker 1: say things don't go well the next year. Just take 362 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:29,639 Speaker 1: a look at the Eagles season last year, right, it 363 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,200 Speaker 1: started out pretty good and I lost to the Jets. 364 00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:37,719 Speaker 1: Tough schedule, injuries, infighting, next thing you know, everything falls apart. 365 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:39,359 Speaker 1: And look, we're not trying to be sour on the 366 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:41,520 Speaker 1: forty nine ers. They're still a very talented team. But 367 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:44,359 Speaker 1: the only team to make it back after losing a 368 00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:46,840 Speaker 1: super Bowl in the last twenty five years since the 369 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:50,120 Speaker 1: year two thousand is the Tom Brady Patriots, and they won. 370 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:52,720 Speaker 1: So anything that involves Tom Brady is the anomaly. You 371 00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:54,440 Speaker 1: could pretty much crumple up and throw out the window 372 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:58,480 Speaker 1: because there's Tom Brady and everybody else. So if he 373 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:01,439 Speaker 1: is the only standard there, that's a tough one to 374 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:05,840 Speaker 1: possibly repeat. Upon. I love this. This is absolutely fantastic. Sam. 375 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:08,439 Speaker 1: Just crush this for everybody. So go out there and 376 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:11,200 Speaker 1: listen to Sam. Place those waiters and spread him out 377 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 1: like that too, because that is how you're going to 378 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:17,520 Speaker 1: recreate this one available books special. Let's get to some 379 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:20,639 Speaker 1: of the stats that are going to make impacts potentially 380 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 1: on week one. Now, I know a lot of stuff 381 00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:25,600 Speaker 1: here in week one, we're talking about projectability. We don't 382 00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:27,160 Speaker 1: have a lot of data go on yet where it's 383 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:28,960 Speaker 1: going to be into October before we have some really 384 00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 1: good data that we can send Garteeth into and really 385 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 1: kind of you. So let's talk first about the chief's 386 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:36,679 Speaker 1: running back situation. So Clyde wards a layer. He is 387 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:39,880 Speaker 1: going to be out for a few weeks. He's got 388 00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:42,480 Speaker 1: some mental health issues he's working through, so hopefully he 389 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 1: is going to be back sooner than later, and hopefully 390 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:47,119 Speaker 1: things are going well from him. How does this change 391 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 1: potentially the use of Pacheco or what happens in this 392 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:51,080 Speaker 1: backfield altogether. 393 00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:55,360 Speaker 2: Sam, Yeah, so I don't think it changes Pacheco's usage 394 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:59,640 Speaker 2: quite that much, but the backup situation certainly is one 395 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:03,640 Speaker 2: to mi. They brought in somemajp Ryan after the Broncos 396 00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:07,280 Speaker 2: let him go. They also have Carson Steele, who was 397 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:11,040 Speaker 2: a preseason favorite for a lot of people, and so 398 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,720 Speaker 2: how they split up that usage is going to be 399 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:19,560 Speaker 2: very interesting. Nate Yankee from PFF actually twe you at 400 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 2: the other day that samajp Ryan last year had thirty 401 00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:28,240 Speaker 2: two targets in the two minute drill with the Broncos. 402 00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:31,840 Speaker 2: Now again different team, but he I think is a 403 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:36,800 Speaker 2: clear pass catching threat for the Kansas City Chiefs. I 404 00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 2: think they could bring him out in those passing situations 405 00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:43,119 Speaker 2: and target the heck out of them. They're not going 406 00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 2: to be with Hollywood Brown this week and so could 407 00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:51,439 Speaker 2: funnel more targets to the running back as well. So 408 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:55,480 Speaker 2: this backup usage is certainly something that I'm paying close 409 00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 2: attention to because again, like you mentioned, cch is out 410 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:01,479 Speaker 2: for I believe for we being put on the reserve 411 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 2: and FI list. So we'll have another three weeks where 412 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:09,000 Speaker 2: this backup situation is going to be a factor in 413 00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:12,200 Speaker 2: something that we can hopefully profit off of. I think 414 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:16,919 Speaker 2: p Ryan is the guy I would initially think to target, 415 00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:18,199 Speaker 2: you know, if they have like one and a half 416 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:22,520 Speaker 2: reception lines something in that situation. Obviously, chuck O ran 417 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 2: a decent number of routes last year, but I think 418 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:28,640 Speaker 2: they might want to split up that workload a little bit. 419 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:31,760 Speaker 1: Makes sense to me since we did talk so much 420 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:33,440 Speaker 1: about the forty nine ers too. I want to get 421 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:36,400 Speaker 1: into some stats potentially about the New York Jets, because 422 00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,359 Speaker 1: if we're crafting a narrative where San Francisco is, you know, 423 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:43,160 Speaker 1: potentially I'll use the D word, but dominating that game, 424 00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:45,600 Speaker 1: I don't know. Maybe that's too far. Maybe I'm putting 425 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,000 Speaker 1: the car before the horse. We'll see. But if the 426 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 1: game script is saying pro forty nine or which is 427 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:52,199 Speaker 1: something we're both kind of alluding to, how can we 428 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:54,399 Speaker 1: make money on the Jets side, because one would imagine 429 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:56,160 Speaker 1: then we'll have to be a little bit more pass happy. 430 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:58,680 Speaker 1: Then we want to be game plan wise if we're 431 00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,880 Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers and the offensive coordinator and the Jets there, so, 432 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:03,800 Speaker 1: how can we turn that into cash? Potentially look at 433 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:04,800 Speaker 1: the wide receivers. 434 00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:09,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'm, for lack of a better term, targeting 435 00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:15,159 Speaker 2: Garrett Wilson reception overs. I think between last offseason, obviously 436 00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:18,159 Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers did not play during the regular season, aside 437 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:22,040 Speaker 2: from five snaps and this offseason, I think him and 438 00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:26,439 Speaker 2: Wilson have created a connection that a lot of people 439 00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 2: are excited about. San Francisco does have some nice cornerbacks 440 00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:35,439 Speaker 2: in their secondary, But I just I'm really buying Garrett 441 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 2: Wilson and think he could be considered a top five 442 00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 2: receiver by the end of this season. He had a 443 00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:46,040 Speaker 2: thirty percent target share last year, ran a route on 444 00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:50,560 Speaker 2: almost every single play, despite what you think Rogers might 445 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:53,679 Speaker 2: be on sort of the whole of the season. In 446 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 2: Week one, he will be an upgrade over Zach Wilson 447 00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,280 Speaker 2: in what that quarterback room was providing, which was a 448 00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:04,640 Speaker 2: sixty seven percent catchuple target rate to Garrett Wilson. Mike 449 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:08,159 Speaker 2: Williams is expected to play in Week one, but I 450 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:12,560 Speaker 2: don't think that really changes thing. Mike Williams is a 451 00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:17,119 Speaker 2: different receiver. He's a deeper threat type of guy. We 452 00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,840 Speaker 2: saw Garrett Wilson get peppered with targets last year. I 453 00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:23,840 Speaker 2: don't see any reason why that changes in the first 454 00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,640 Speaker 2: game of the season when they're trying to get this 455 00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:30,160 Speaker 2: massive upset over the forty nine ers. 456 00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:33,919 Speaker 1: Yeah, rooking right now, by the way, at the totals 457 00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 1: here for Garrett Wilson. Here you have five and a 458 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:38,679 Speaker 1: half receptions. The over is pretty juice there minus one 459 00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:42,120 Speaker 1: forty five. But still you could even push an alt 460 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:44,360 Speaker 1: line there in some spots. Sixty eight and a half 461 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:47,000 Speaker 1: receiving yards I'm seeing right now, that's an over at 462 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,000 Speaker 1: minus one fourteen over on betting pros. That's the best 463 00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:51,080 Speaker 1: line you can get. And then plus one seventy five 464 00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,200 Speaker 1: for the anytime touchdown score. I was just playing around 465 00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:55,440 Speaker 1: with this right now too. If you put the touchdown 466 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:57,680 Speaker 1: score and the over on the receiving yards. I'm a 467 00:23:57,680 --> 00:23:59,240 Speaker 1: guy who likes to go to the yardage as both 468 00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 1: of the receptions because you know, he always had that 469 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:03,879 Speaker 1: one big play and end up getting very close to 470 00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,119 Speaker 1: that yardage total, where sometimes the receptions can be a 471 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,640 Speaker 1: little bit more finigy. So put those two things together, 472 00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:11,120 Speaker 1: you're gonna get plus two twenty seven right now on 473 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:14,040 Speaker 1: that as like a little skinny duo play, which is 474 00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:16,040 Speaker 1: that something that maybe could be an interesting play for 475 00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:18,200 Speaker 1: people out there too On the Garrett Wilson's side. 476 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 2: Certainly, I think again, because of the number of targets, 477 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:25,440 Speaker 2: I think he's going to get it. Like you said 478 00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:29,120 Speaker 2: it only takes one two to break away and cover 479 00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:31,960 Speaker 2: that yardage total. I mean, I like what you mentioned 480 00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:37,439 Speaker 2: in targeting the alt reception lines as well. You know, 481 00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:40,800 Speaker 2: I don't I think last year they targeted Breese Hall 482 00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:44,399 Speaker 2: a ton out of the backfield as well. But I 483 00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:48,400 Speaker 2: just think they're going to shift a bunch of those targets, 484 00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:51,199 Speaker 2: three or four of those targets to Garrett Wilson, so 485 00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 2: you know, taking him at nine plus ten plus receptions, 486 00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:59,719 Speaker 2: just fully leaning into him being the guy that I 487 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,480 Speaker 2: and a lot of other people think he is and 488 00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:04,160 Speaker 2: taking that step into the next Well. 489 00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,880 Speaker 1: That's the Rogers history too, right, I mean DeVante Adams, 490 00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:09,399 Speaker 1: you go back before that the Jordan Nelson ye'ars like 491 00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:12,160 Speaker 1: he finds that one guy and then he just focuses 492 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,640 Speaker 1: all the time. Would you ladder bet that potentially coming 493 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:16,040 Speaker 1: out of the gate too, like going all the way 494 00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,240 Speaker 1: up to that nine and a half from the five 495 00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:18,640 Speaker 1: and a half. 496 00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:23,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, I do think that's an alternate approach as well. 497 00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:27,080 Speaker 2: The I just realized that Alan Zart might be playing 498 00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:30,680 Speaker 2: in three wide receiver sets there, so hopefully his pastor. 499 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 1: Alan ruins our day that it wasn't meant to be 500 00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:35,280 Speaker 1: so let's just put it that way. For those of 501 00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:36,800 Speaker 1: you also kind of knew to the betting world too, 502 00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:38,560 Speaker 1: when we talk about ladder betting, we're gonna do that 503 00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:41,320 Speaker 1: very carefully throughout the year. Last year, Andrew Ericson and 504 00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:44,880 Speaker 1: I on the show, I think maybe three times all 505 00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:46,159 Speaker 1: year we found a time we want to do it. 506 00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:47,880 Speaker 1: One of them happened to be the Devana Chan game 507 00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,360 Speaker 1: against the Denver Broncos, and that was a good day 508 00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,000 Speaker 1: and we had touchdown props on it. So what that 509 00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:54,680 Speaker 1: means is you're taking that that baseline and you keep 510 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:56,800 Speaker 1: betting it all the way up. So like for instance, 511 00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:59,320 Speaker 1: a Chan was fifty five yards or something like that 512 00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:01,000 Speaker 1: in the half and we bet it all the way 513 00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,080 Speaker 1: over one hundred. Well you ended up going for you know, 514 00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:05,800 Speaker 1: the rest is history. I think it's still against at 515 00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:07,399 Speaker 1: Denver Broncos right now somewhere. 516 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:09,600 Speaker 2: I think the key part of that too is you're 517 00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:14,320 Speaker 2: slowly lowering your wager amount as you get up to 518 00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:18,000 Speaker 2: the higher odds, so you're sort of evening out your 519 00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 2: rest prokile there. 520 00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 1: So basically, you take the most units you want to bet, 521 00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:23,320 Speaker 1: you put them on the earlier side of that, the 522 00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:25,639 Speaker 1: ones that are heavier towards the even money line or 523 00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,159 Speaker 1: the juice, and then, as Sam is saying, as the 524 00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,560 Speaker 1: numbers go up on the plus side, your wagers can 525 00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:33,280 Speaker 1: go down and it can be a very productive day. 526 00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:35,000 Speaker 1: So a little education out there for you in the 527 00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:36,760 Speaker 1: market too. We did this Welsh and I and some 528 00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:38,399 Speaker 1: of the baseball stuff this year too. We did it 529 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:40,520 Speaker 1: once or twice on some K props and it was 530 00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:43,320 Speaker 1: pretty good. But this is an opportunity there with I 531 00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:45,920 Speaker 1: agree with Sam one hundred percent. The trend has always 532 00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:48,920 Speaker 1: been Aaron Rodgers finds a friend, and that's Aaron Rodgers friend, 533 00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,119 Speaker 1: and Garrett Wilson clearly is going to be his friend. 534 00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,160 Speaker 1: One more stat to get to and then the Survivor 535 00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:55,480 Speaker 1: Pool pick of the week. Let's talk about Jalen Warren 536 00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:57,239 Speaker 1: a little bit. What do you see out of this 537 00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:00,199 Speaker 1: potential here with Warren a little lamb going into the 538 00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:03,320 Speaker 1: season with the Steelers backfield, tough matchup too on the 539 00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:06,159 Speaker 1: road in Atlanta. They've added Jude On, They've added Simmons, 540 00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,440 Speaker 1: They've already got a pretty good secondary all already pretty 541 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,720 Speaker 1: good team in my opinion. So what do you make 542 00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:12,439 Speaker 1: out of this potential here with the game script and 543 00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:15,240 Speaker 1: with the health of the running back situation for the Steelers. 544 00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:18,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, the health is going to be key. Obviously, if 545 00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:21,720 Speaker 2: Warren doesn't play, this whole conversation becomes moot. But we're 546 00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:24,560 Speaker 2: gonna hope he plays. I think, you know, Warren was 547 00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:27,760 Speaker 2: sort of a fantasy hot heart throb this offseason. A 548 00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:31,480 Speaker 2: lot of people really liked him as a zero RB pick. 549 00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:35,280 Speaker 2: But I think how this backfield split works out in 550 00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:38,600 Speaker 2: week one is going to be very telling, because they 551 00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:42,480 Speaker 2: obviously have Arthur Smith in the building calling plays now, 552 00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:46,480 Speaker 2: and it would be very much like him to give 553 00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:50,439 Speaker 2: neither him nor Harris touches and give Coda or Pattison touches. 554 00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:54,160 Speaker 2: So that said, in the final eight games of last season, 555 00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:58,040 Speaker 2: including their with their one playoff game, yes the Steelers 556 00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:01,040 Speaker 2: were in the playoffs last year, in case you forgot, 557 00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:06,959 Speaker 2: their snaps were split nearly evenly. Now, Warren was featured 558 00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:10,080 Speaker 2: a bit more heavily in the passing game as a 559 00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:13,399 Speaker 2: route runner. He'd ran a route on fifty four percent 560 00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,040 Speaker 2: of the team's dropbacks compared to just thirty two percent 561 00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:21,600 Speaker 2: for Najee Harris. So I'm hoping that that continues, and 562 00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:27,840 Speaker 2: I think wanting to target potentially Jalen Warren's receiving props, 563 00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:32,200 Speaker 2: especially with Russell Wilson under center, with Deontay Johnson out 564 00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:35,119 Speaker 2: of the building, I think this is a great spot 565 00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:38,200 Speaker 2: for Warren to go over some of his receiving props. 566 00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,000 Speaker 1: All right, so it's what you've all been waiting for. 567 00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:42,880 Speaker 1: We know a lot of you are in those Survivor pools. 568 00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,960 Speaker 1: We love them too. Sam, I originally had the same pick. 569 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:49,280 Speaker 1: I decided to change mine because I don't want to 570 00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:50,840 Speaker 1: be too boring out of the gate here. We all 571 00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:54,160 Speaker 1: picked the same thing. But just so everybody knows we 572 00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:55,880 Speaker 1: were on the same page here, Sam, why don't you 573 00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,160 Speaker 1: kick us off? Who is your Survivor Pool pick of 574 00:28:58,200 --> 00:28:59,720 Speaker 1: the week? And Sam is going to do his best 575 00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:02,520 Speaker 1: here to make sure he is playing Survivor. So we're 576 00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:04,960 Speaker 1: gonna go along, you know, with you all year. If 577 00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:07,080 Speaker 1: Sam bluses, I don't know, I guess we'll let you 578 00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:09,320 Speaker 1: buy back in because well, we've got eighteen weeks of 579 00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:11,880 Speaker 1: a show to do here. But let's start off week 580 00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:13,400 Speaker 1: one on the right foot. Where are you going for 581 00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:15,760 Speaker 1: your Survivor Pool pick of the week. 582 00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:18,480 Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the Cincinnati Bengals. I know I 583 00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:21,000 Speaker 2: talked about them at the top of the show with 584 00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:25,840 Speaker 2: the Jamar Chase situation, but early in the season, I 585 00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:28,200 Speaker 2: just I just want a winner. I just want a winner. 586 00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,640 Speaker 2: In Week one of my Survivor Pool, they have the 587 00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:34,920 Speaker 2: largest spread of the week. We sort of know again 588 00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,800 Speaker 2: what the Bengals offense is going to be. I don't 589 00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:39,640 Speaker 2: think it's going to ever be a bad idea to 590 00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:44,160 Speaker 2: fade the New England Patriots this year. It's not a 591 00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:49,080 Speaker 2: deal again having to go with with the Bengals with 592 00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:52,520 Speaker 2: this sort of uncertainty. But like I said, this is 593 00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:55,480 Speaker 2: the sort of third best week to pick the Bengals 594 00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:58,760 Speaker 2: based on my projections looking out to the rest of 595 00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:01,920 Speaker 2: the season, and and the best week based on look 596 00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:05,320 Speaker 2: aheadlines as far as how much the Bengals are going 597 00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:11,720 Speaker 2: to be favored. But again, I lean that the Bengals 598 00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:14,840 Speaker 2: are going to have Jamar Chase and they're just going 599 00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:17,960 Speaker 2: to take care of their business against a first time 600 00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:19,960 Speaker 2: head coach in his first game. 601 00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:22,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, on the road all that. So I was in 602 00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:24,480 Speaker 1: the same mind of Sam, which is I'm going against 603 00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:27,000 Speaker 1: my New England Patriots with the Bengals two. But that's 604 00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:29,000 Speaker 1: no fun to give you just one, so I'm gonna 605 00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:30,760 Speaker 1: give you a second one just in case maybe you're 606 00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:33,080 Speaker 1: in more than one and you want to go through here. 607 00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:35,720 Speaker 1: So my first one is going to be the forty 608 00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:38,640 Speaker 1: nine Ers. That's right, Week one, stomping on the Jets 609 00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:41,200 Speaker 1: on Monday Night football. I mean, come on here, They're 610 00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:42,720 Speaker 1: not gonna lose this game. If they lose this game 611 00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:44,800 Speaker 1: to the Jets, then everything that I've said about them 612 00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:47,920 Speaker 1: is going to happen sooner than even I anticipated. I 613 00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:51,480 Speaker 1: don't think it happens in Week one. So Bengals and 614 00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:53,520 Speaker 1: forty nine Ers, those are our two picks there for 615 00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:56,920 Speaker 1: the survivor pools. And make sure again you're subscribing to 616 00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:59,280 Speaker 1: the Betting Pros podcast wherever you get your pods, and 617 00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:01,920 Speaker 1: don't forget also subscribe to the YouTube channel Ring the 618 00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:03,800 Speaker 1: Belt to it Goes thing for notifications because we've got 619 00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:06,720 Speaker 1: college football, we've got NBA, we've got all the NFL 620 00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:08,680 Speaker 1: you could possibly handle, because we're here five days a 621 00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:11,560 Speaker 1: week now doing NFL content just like this, Sam, before 622 00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:14,040 Speaker 1: I let you go, one quick question out of the gate. 623 00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:17,160 Speaker 1: Week one. It's always chaos. We know this. It always happens. 624 00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:20,280 Speaker 1: Strange things happen every year, but with teams that are, 625 00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:23,000 Speaker 1: you know, coming out of this new fangled preseason where 626 00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:25,240 Speaker 1: you have a little bit more downtime here, do you 627 00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:26,840 Speaker 1: think you get a lot of teams coming out flat 628 00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 1: of the gate and a lot more unders happening in 629 00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:31,080 Speaker 1: Week one than maybe people might realize they're going to happen. 630 00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:36,680 Speaker 2: Potentially. But I think there are also some rule changes 631 00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:40,040 Speaker 2: that we've seen this offseason that could change things a 632 00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:43,440 Speaker 2: little bit. Obviously, we have the new dynamic kickoff and 633 00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:49,040 Speaker 2: dynamic the the hip drop tackle penalty as well. We'll 634 00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:51,720 Speaker 2: see how often that gets called. I don't know if 635 00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:54,840 Speaker 2: it was called at all in the preseason, so maybe 636 00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:57,880 Speaker 2: teams have figured up there, or it's just me figured 637 00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:03,480 Speaker 2: out their tackling strategy, if you will. But I shy 638 00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:07,720 Speaker 2: away from some of these early season trends in terms 639 00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:09,640 Speaker 2: of all unders. But I think if you're going to 640 00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:13,200 Speaker 2: do that, target the teams that didn't play at all 641 00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:16,480 Speaker 2: in the preseason, or I guess the starters that didn't. 642 00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:20,760 Speaker 1: You mean like quarterbacks like, hm, well there's a quarterback 643 00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:24,040 Speaker 1: that's old, didn't play at all in the preseason. Oh, 644 00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:28,880 Speaker 1: who is it? I know, Taron Rodgers. All right, that's 645 00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:31,680 Speaker 1: enough of me today. Sam Hoppin always great again. Join 646 00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,920 Speaker 1: us every Tuesday here for a breakdown of the line movement. 647 00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:36,760 Speaker 1: I'll look into the future and to help you with 648 00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:39,000 Speaker 1: your survivor pool. Sam Hoppin always great stuff from you. 649 00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:40,960 Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, But the story of the 650 00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,800 Speaker 1: game goes on for Sam. I'm Joey P. We'll see 651 00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:45,640 Speaker 1: you next time. Kids, Happy betting. 652 00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:49,120 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you 653 00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:51,560 Speaker 3: love the show, the best freeway to support us is 654 00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:54,960 Speaker 3: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 655 00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:57,880 Speaker 3: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and 656 00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,640 Speaker 3: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube 657 00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:04,200 Speaker 3: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.