1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:12,479 Speaker 2: Real disposable income is up seventeen percent since twenty eighteen. 3 00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:16,160 Speaker 2: Americans are very wealthy, but I think that they're still 4 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:20,400 Speaker 2: living in this paradigm where everything feels really unaffordable, and 5 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 2: I think it's going to be really hard for any 6 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 2: politician to fax. 7 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:36,240 Speaker 3: I'm Stephanie Flanders, head of Government and Economics at Bloomberg, 8 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 3: and this is Trumppomics, the podcast that looks at the 9 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:42,320 Speaker 3: economic world of Donald Trump, how he's already shaped the 10 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:45,919 Speaker 3: global economy, and what on earth is going to happen next. 11 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 3: This week, we're taking a closer look at the affordability 12 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 3: question in the US, how Democrats flipped Donald Trump's cost 13 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 3: of living message to their advantage during the recent off 14 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 3: year elections, and whether anyone is closer to having a solution. 15 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 3: One feature that the Democrats very different winning campaigns in 16 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 3: New York, Virginia, and New Jersey all had in common 17 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:14,319 Speaker 3: the other week was a focus on high prices. Recent 18 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 3: polling show a majority of Americans aren't feeling great about 19 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 3: what is squarely now Donald Trump's economy, and in the 20 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:23,679 Speaker 3: wake of the longest ever shut down in the US 21 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 3: federal government. Many more voters are also worried about the 22 00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:30,479 Speaker 3: cost of their health insurance going up even higher. Whether 23 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:33,679 Speaker 3: you call it affordability or the cost of living, It's 24 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 3: a theme that's coming to dominate politics in many industrial economies, 25 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 3: but it's taken on a new residence in the US 26 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:43,200 Speaker 3: now that Democrats see an opportunity to play all of 27 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 3: last year's criticisms of President Biden against Donald Trump. The 28 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:50,280 Speaker 3: President floated a couple of his own solutions in the 29 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 3: past week. Two thousand dollar checks for every American minus 30 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:57,280 Speaker 3: the really rich ones, funded out of higher tariff revenues, 31 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 3: and the introduction of fifty year mortgages. The numbers on 32 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 3: the first of those don't really add up, to put 33 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 3: it mildly, and his own Treasury Department doesn't seem super 34 00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 3: enthusiastic so far about the fifty year mortgage plan. We 35 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 3: may come back to those in a future episode, but 36 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:15,959 Speaker 3: given that it is now the Democrats putting the issue 37 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 3: front and center, I wanted to focus on what policies 38 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:24,359 Speaker 3: could really make America more affordable for ordinary families and 39 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:27,520 Speaker 3: what it will take for Democrats to credibly promise to 40 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:33,799 Speaker 3: deliver them well to help me answer some of these questions. 41 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 3: We've invited Annie Lowry, as staff writer at The Atlantic, 42 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 3: onto the podcast. Annie has done more than anyone, arguably 43 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 3: to put affordability on the agenda in recent years, initially 44 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 3: with an essay for The Atlantic in twenty twenty on 45 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 3: the Great Affordability Crisis. She's also the author of Give 46 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:52,959 Speaker 3: People Money, which was shortlisted for the Financial Times of 47 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:55,640 Speaker 3: McKinsey Business Book of the Year award. Thanks so much 48 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 3: for joining Trump and Nomics for the first time, Annie. 49 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:00,560 Speaker 4: Lowry, Thank you so much for having me and. 50 00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 3: Nancy Cook not coming on for the first time on 51 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 3: Trump and Onomics, a frequent participant, a senior national political 52 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:09,400 Speaker 3: correspondent for Bloomberg who wrote an essay for US this 53 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 3: weekend looking at, in her words, how Democrats have turned 54 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:17,360 Speaker 3: Donald Trump's economic playbook against him. Nancy, great to have 55 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:17,959 Speaker 3: you on again. 56 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 4: Thanks for having me. 57 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:29,360 Speaker 3: I'm going to just start quickly with you, Nancy, just 58 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 3: to kind of set the scene in terms of the 59 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 3: motivation for you writing that essay. You know, we had 60 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 3: these good results for the Democrats last week in the 61 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 3: off year elections, and although there's plenty of people arguing 62 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 3: about what lessons are for the party political lessons. There 63 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 3: does seem to be a sort of message lesson, which 64 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:52,839 Speaker 3: was that playing the affordability agenda against Donald Trump has 65 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 3: been a potent PLA's call weapon for Democrats of all 66 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 3: kinds in those races. So just give me a sort 67 00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:03,240 Speaker 3: of quick summary of your peace and how you think 68 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 3: affordability is now driving politics in Washington conversations around the country. 69 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:12,880 Speaker 1: Well, so, Donald Trump really won power again by relentlessly 70 00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 1: going after Joe Biden in the twenty twenty four election 71 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 1: over inflation, his handling of the economy, and that was 72 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:23,039 Speaker 1: really his message. He positioned himself as the best steward 73 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 1: of the US economy an he won. One of my 74 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:29,280 Speaker 1: top priorities will be to quickly defeat inflation and make 75 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 1: America affordable again. 76 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 2: We will quickly defeat it. 77 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 4: We have to bring down prices. 78 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 1: And what has happened is that prices haven't really gone down. 79 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:42,400 Speaker 1: Americans still feel very frustrated by their buying power, their 80 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 1: inability to afford a home, college prices are still very high. 81 00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:50,360 Speaker 1: Every aspect of their life still feels unaffordable. And there's 82 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 1: sort of new areas where we're seeing that with electricity 83 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 1: prices going up because of AI data centers. But basically 84 00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 1: Democrats took what Trump had done against Biden on the 85 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:02,560 Speaker 1: enemy and did it to him in several sort of 86 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:05,719 Speaker 1: key local elections around the country in the US. This 87 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 1: is not a typical electioneer. It's an off cycle electioneer. 88 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:13,039 Speaker 1: But it did give us a foreshadowing of a potentially 89 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 1: very potent message that they'll have for the twenty twenty 90 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 1: six midterms and then again for the twenty twenty eight 91 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:19,240 Speaker 1: presidential cycle. 92 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:22,720 Speaker 3: Annie, the essay that you wrote for The Atlantic five 93 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 3: years ago, I thought was the first time where someone 94 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:31,559 Speaker 3: had pulled together why people were feeling so downbeat about 95 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:35,040 Speaker 3: the economy and priced out of things that they want 96 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:37,159 Speaker 3: the kind of life they want to despite on the 97 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 3: surface it seeming like a pretty strong economy when you're 98 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 3: sort of hearing all these politicians now banging the drum 99 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:46,599 Speaker 3: for affordability. How did you get drawn to it five 100 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:48,359 Speaker 3: years ago? And how much do you think has actually 101 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:51,320 Speaker 3: changed since then? Has anything got better? Has everything got worse? 102 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:53,040 Speaker 4: It's a good question. 103 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 2: And when I was writing the piece, I had been 104 00:05:57,000 --> 00:06:00,320 Speaker 2: writing for thirteen years at that point, and I know 105 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:03,400 Speaker 2: all of us had been covering for thirteen years. At 106 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 2: that point, the problem in the United States economy as 107 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 2: being insufficient demand right, high unemployment, low wage growth, and 108 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:17,839 Speaker 2: anemic middle class. And you had the Obama administration which 109 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:22,359 Speaker 2: was aimed really squarely at increasing demand and giving people 110 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 2: more money to buy the things that they need. And 111 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 2: I think it really snuck up on us that actually 112 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 2: we had supply problems, we had pricing problems, and so 113 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:33,479 Speaker 2: in some ways I think that that piece now it 114 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:38,120 Speaker 2: seemed so blatantly obvious. But at the time, I remember 115 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 2: I was talking to some housing economists that were talking 116 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:44,560 Speaker 2: about housing shortages starting in like twenty twelve, twenty thirteen. 117 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:46,840 Speaker 2: I remember being like, what are you talking about a 118 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:49,880 Speaker 2: housing shortage? Didn't you just see what happened with the collapse? 119 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 2: But you know, economists, I think had been noting this 120 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:54,760 Speaker 2: for a while, that there were price problems, that there 121 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 2: were supply problems, and they've only gotten worse. Really, what 122 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:01,360 Speaker 2: I think brought this to the four wasn't the underlying 123 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:06,080 Speaker 2: and really serious problem with housing costs, childcare costs, higher 124 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 2: ed costs, healthcare costs which were really big. It was 125 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:13,720 Speaker 2: the big surgeon inflation and the cost of like eggs, right. 126 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 2: It made people notice, I think, and the fact that 127 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 2: you had this just very big jump in rents into 128 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:21,880 Speaker 2: everything else, that all of a sudden this became really salient. 129 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 2: And I think that we're still in this moment where 130 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 2: you know, at this point, real disposable income is up 131 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:33,800 Speaker 2: seventeen percent since twenty eighteen. Americans are very wealthy, but 132 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:36,320 Speaker 2: I think that there's still living in this paradigm where 133 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:39,680 Speaker 2: everything feels really unaffordable, and I think it's going to 134 00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 2: be really hard for any politician to fix. 135 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 3: Well, there are also things that have got cheaper over 136 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 3: the last sort of twenty years, and people always use 137 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:49,200 Speaker 3: the example of you toys and all these things that 138 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:53,200 Speaker 3: we were getting from China. But there's these very big 139 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 3: ticket items that are expensive in many countries, many developed economies, 140 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 3: but seem to be have a particular issue in the US. 141 00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:06,320 Speaker 3: I was thinking particularly childcare. You've mentioned housing, medical costs, 142 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 3: which have clearly been front and center now. So do 143 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:13,160 Speaker 3: you think that politicians are in a position where the 144 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 3: governors or congress people or the White House, is there 145 00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:20,160 Speaker 3: actually a capacity to pull the leavers on this? And 146 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 3: he talks about underlying supply issues Traditionally, presidents like to 147 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 3: throw money at staff. Often governors and congress people want 148 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:30,640 Speaker 3: to do that. Do you get a sense when you 149 00:08:30,760 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 3: talk to the people on the hill that they actually 150 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:36,440 Speaker 3: are looking at solutions that aren't just about throwing money 151 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:38,920 Speaker 3: at things, I mean putting increasing demand in at its 152 00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 3: point rather than addressing supply. 153 00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 1: Well, I don't think that Republicans in Washington, DC right 154 00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:48,040 Speaker 1: now are really focused on the solutions to this. I 155 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 1: do think that governors and local politicians and people in 156 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:53,640 Speaker 1: Congress could do some things. One of the issues that's 157 00:08:53,640 --> 00:08:56,319 Speaker 1: facing New Jersey voters that was really salient in their 158 00:08:56,360 --> 00:09:01,439 Speaker 1: gubernatorial election last week was electricity prices, and that's a 159 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:03,320 Speaker 1: huge issue in New Jersey. I think it will become 160 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:06,560 Speaker 1: an increasing issue as these AI data centers sort of 161 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:09,360 Speaker 1: take up more and more power and electricity prices will rise. 162 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 1: But part of the tricky thing about that is that 163 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:14,439 Speaker 1: President Biden had stood up a whole sort of green 164 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 1: economy through the Inflation Reduction Act and a lot of 165 00:09:17,440 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 1: policies to try to incentivize the private sector to create 166 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:25,280 Speaker 1: more jobs there and create more solar power and incentivize 167 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 1: people to buy electric cars. And then Trump has basically 168 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:31,320 Speaker 1: undone a lot of that those policies in the economy, 169 00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:33,839 Speaker 1: and so it just makes it means that we're sort 170 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:37,080 Speaker 1: of back to electricity as the main source of power 171 00:09:37,080 --> 00:09:39,240 Speaker 1: for people, and that means that there's going to be 172 00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 1: less alternatives, less competitiveness, and that will drive up prices, 173 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 1: and so there are things people can do sort of 174 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:48,120 Speaker 1: at the margins, but it means that you know, you 175 00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:51,400 Speaker 1: can't sort of have this partisan flip flopping every four 176 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:53,839 Speaker 1: years when or every two years when a new party 177 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:56,840 Speaker 1: comes to power and they undo everything that the previous 178 00:09:56,880 --> 00:09:57,600 Speaker 1: party did. 179 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:01,160 Speaker 3: And it risks and I mean you s yourself sometimes 180 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:04,079 Speaker 3: what's brought it to the center of people's attention is 181 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:08,360 Speaker 3: actually not some of the really longer lasting structural issues 182 00:10:08,400 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 3: that you've identified in that piece. And currently what's quite 183 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 3: potent for Democrats is blaming all the high inflation, high 184 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:18,040 Speaker 3: prices on tariffs, when as you know, and we've discussed 185 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:20,840 Speaker 3: many times on trumps, the evidence on that is pretty uneven. 186 00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:26,440 Speaker 3: It certainly doesn't explain the kind of squeezes on living 187 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:30,160 Speaker 3: standards and affordability that people are feeling day to day. 188 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 3: But obviously it's a fantastic thing to beat the administration 189 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:35,640 Speaker 3: with if you're a Democrat, you can just blame it 190 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:38,800 Speaker 3: all on tariffs. But fast forward a year from now, 191 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 3: people will still feel things are very expensive and the 192 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 3: tariffs may not be as salient. What are the practical 193 00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:50,560 Speaker 3: ways that Democrats can be talking about solutions to the 194 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:55,720 Speaker 3: affordability crisis rather than only sort of hoping that there 195 00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 3: will be ways that they can constantly throw this back 196 00:10:58,440 --> 00:10:59,280 Speaker 3: at the administration. 197 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:00,280 Speaker 4: Yeah. 198 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:03,040 Speaker 2: Look, I think that one thing that is going to 199 00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:08,680 Speaker 2: become very obvious next year is if the ACA special 200 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 2: subsidies that are due to expire remain expired, millions and 201 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:17,200 Speaker 2: millions and millions of Americans we're going to see their 202 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 2: healthcare premiums rise really sharply. 203 00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:21,920 Speaker 3: This is on the Obamacare, the health insurance that we've 204 00:11:21,920 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 3: heard so much about. 205 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:25,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, and so I think that that is one place 206 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:28,080 Speaker 2: where they'll be able to continue to hammer the Trump 207 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:32,440 Speaker 2: administration and allied Republicans on Oh okay, they say that 208 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 2: they want you to have cheap prices and everything that 209 00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 2: you want, but hey, they're raising the price of your electricity. 210 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:43,160 Speaker 2: Hey you're uninsured now because you can't afford your premium. Hey, 211 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:46,679 Speaker 2: those tariffs, you know, that cost sixteen hundred dollars per family. 212 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:48,960 Speaker 2: And I do think that the Trump administration is going 213 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:50,680 Speaker 2: to be in a bit of a bind if they 214 00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 2: try to do stimulative policies to sort of relieve some 215 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:58,360 Speaker 2: of these pressures. Right, If Trump ends up being allowed 216 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 2: to and writing these two thousand dollar checks and that 217 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:05,080 Speaker 2: leads to interest rates remaining as high as they've been, 218 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 2: you know, that's not going to be good. And I 219 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:10,600 Speaker 2: think it points to this broader problem, which is that 220 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:14,800 Speaker 2: politicians have a tremendous toolbox when it comes to demand 221 00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 2: side policies. They really do. They have a ton of 222 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:20,000 Speaker 2: stuff that they can do, both you know, in terms 223 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:22,200 Speaker 2: of the realm of monetary policy and the FED, but 224 00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 2: also then in terms of Congress and even things that 225 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 2: individual governors can do. Demand, Right, supply is hard. It's 226 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 2: often inflationary to create news supply, it's often really really slow, 227 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:39,080 Speaker 2: and prices are hard too. One place where the government 228 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:41,600 Speaker 2: does have some price and control that I really do 229 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,080 Speaker 2: think that you've seen both parties start to exert some 230 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:47,360 Speaker 2: interest and some power is in terms of healthcare costs. Right, 231 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:50,600 Speaker 2: we actually have healthcare supply for the most part in 232 00:12:50,640 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 2: this country. We could probably use more doctors and nurses. 233 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 2: I'm not saying that that's not a problem. But the 234 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:58,319 Speaker 2: real problem is the prices. And so you know, as 235 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 2: you both know, the federal govern has its hands tied 236 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:04,720 Speaker 2: in terms of things like negotiating the price of pharmaceuticals 237 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:07,720 Speaker 2: for almost all but a very small subset of drugs. 238 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:10,320 Speaker 2: Congress has notably tied its own hands. It was John 239 00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 2: Bayner who did this like twenty years ago. I think 240 00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:16,120 Speaker 2: that you could see a policy something like, hey, we're 241 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:19,320 Speaker 2: going to do uniform negotiations for prescription drugs. We are 242 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:22,640 Speaker 2: going to cap prescription drug monthly copas at thirty five 243 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:25,920 Speaker 2: dollars a month. I don't think that there's any policy 244 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:30,200 Speaker 2: that could be more popular among both Democrats and Republicans, 245 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:33,920 Speaker 2: and I do think that's actually something that the government 246 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 2: could do. Whereas bringing housing costs down, that's going to 247 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:41,040 Speaker 2: take a long time. You face this issue of not 248 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:43,960 Speaker 2: having a lot of federal control over that. Although there 249 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 2: are ways to set policies up to concentivize states and 250 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:50,439 Speaker 2: cities to tie financing to ones that sort of make 251 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 2: themselves code compliant, but we've seen tremendous resistance in city 252 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:57,680 Speaker 2: after city after city after city, and state after state 253 00:13:57,679 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 2: after state to doing this, California being the priming. I 254 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:03,440 Speaker 2: think that there's some real policy change happening now, but 255 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:05,719 Speaker 2: you know, they've had a housing crisis for forty. 256 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:08,200 Speaker 4: Years, so it's going to take a really, really long time. 257 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:10,640 Speaker 2: And I do note that behind all of this, I 258 00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:13,080 Speaker 2: think again is the fact that obviously interest rates are 259 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:15,960 Speaker 2: coming down, but they're really high still, right So thirty 260 00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:18,480 Speaker 2: year mortgage rate is six point two percent right now, 261 00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:21,000 Speaker 2: most people are still mortgage locked if they own their home. 262 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 2: So it's a really complicated set of issues, and I 263 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 2: think the interplay between interest rates and the amount of 264 00:14:26,400 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 2: demand in the economy is a really important thing to 265 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:31,240 Speaker 2: be watching. You know, the high interest rates are part 266 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 2: of the reason, along with high construction costs, that we've 267 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:37,440 Speaker 2: seen just a complete cratering of housing starts at a 268 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:40,520 Speaker 2: time when we really really want to start feeling that. 269 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:42,640 Speaker 2: I think it's a seven and a half million unit 270 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 2: housing gap that we have, and we'll presumably still have 271 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 2: ten or twenty years from now. 272 00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:49,360 Speaker 3: So you're focusing on health, which obviously I mean that 273 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:54,600 Speaker 3: is clearly the area where in theory everyone agrees, certainly 274 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 3: in the broader public. There's just a sort of general 275 00:14:57,760 --> 00:15:01,160 Speaker 3: understanding that they say are in total high costs. I 276 00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:03,320 Speaker 3: guess a couple of things I would say in sort 277 00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:07,800 Speaker 3: of caution is if you look historically, there's been wide 278 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:10,200 Speaker 3: agreement in the US for having a different kind of 279 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 3: healthcare system. You know, famously, for years and years people 280 00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:16,040 Speaker 3: have actually said they quite like try a single payer, 281 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:19,920 Speaker 3: though that's obviously has never been remotely conceivable in terms 282 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:23,480 Speaker 3: of legislation. And yet there have been things that have 283 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:26,880 Speaker 3: got in the way, and every reform has managed to 284 00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 3: be described in a way that makes it less popular, 285 00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 3: thanks to lobbying and other things, that somehow the lesson 286 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 3: gets taken that it's going to increase costs or put 287 00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:38,640 Speaker 3: your insurance at risk. The extraordinary thing to me and 288 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:41,520 Speaker 3: to anyone who doesn't live in the US all the time, 289 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 3: is that you have Obamacare, having had considerable success in 290 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:50,440 Speaker 3: lowering the growth of costs, People, even with what you 291 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:54,000 Speaker 3: would consider to be a good employer insurance scheme, are 292 00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:57,479 Speaker 3: still paying twenty five thousand dollars a year for their insurance. 293 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:01,920 Speaker 3: They're still paying significant copays of outlays over the course 294 00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:05,040 Speaker 3: of the year. Millions of people still don't have insurance. 295 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:08,880 Speaker 3: So I guess even when you've had effective intervention like 296 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 3: Obamacare and some of the things that the Biden and 297 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:15,480 Speaker 3: Obama administration did to slow the cost of drug prices, 298 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:20,360 Speaker 3: increasing drug prices, it doesn't feel remotely like a success 299 00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 3: to the people on the other end of it. And 300 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 3: I sort of one that it's a very risky thing 301 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 3: to try and take on because even when you succeed, 302 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 3: everyone still thinks that their healthcare is really expensive. 303 00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:35,480 Speaker 2: The average American spends fifteen hundred dollars a year out 304 00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 2: of pocket, So Americans collectively spend half a trillion dollars 305 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:42,720 Speaker 2: a year out of pocket on health costs. It's just 306 00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:47,120 Speaker 2: an extraordinary amount of money. And that's not including insurance costs. 307 00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:52,000 Speaker 2: That's not including Medicare, Medicaid, Tricare, all of the you know. 308 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 4: The public policies. 309 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:56,440 Speaker 2: You know, the place that has worked I think most 310 00:16:56,480 --> 00:17:00,640 Speaker 2: successfully in the ACA is the Medicaid expansion. And now 311 00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:05,119 Speaker 2: that is very very much at risk because Republicans took 312 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:07,760 Speaker 2: a trillion dollars from the program. 313 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:11,000 Speaker 4: They're going to kick millions of people off. 314 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:16,000 Speaker 2: By basically increasing the procedural requirements requiring folks to comply 315 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 2: with a work requirement in Medicaid, which some states have tried, 316 00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:23,760 Speaker 2: not terribly successfully. We've not had a national work requirement 317 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:27,920 Speaker 2: in that program. But people on Medicaid, it's been fairly 318 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:30,639 Speaker 2: stable in cost and it's proven itself to be pretty 319 00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 2: good insurance. I remember again, fifteen years ago in the 320 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:36,120 Speaker 2: ACA debates, people would be like, oh, you know, Medicaid 321 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:39,000 Speaker 2: isn't really worth having, and now it's like, oh no, 322 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:42,399 Speaker 2: it's really great. The copays are essentially zero, it very 323 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 2: much covers care. And that's not to say, you know, 324 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:46,360 Speaker 2: it can be sometimes hard to find a doctor, they're 325 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 2: wait lists, all of these other issues, not to negate that, 326 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:52,560 Speaker 2: but yeah, you know, it's it's really really tough in 327 00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:55,040 Speaker 2: terms of health insurance. But there are a lot of 328 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:58,680 Speaker 2: policy answers. What I would say is that I think 329 00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:02,399 Speaker 2: that if you we're trying to create a bipartisan bill 330 00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 2: that would start to solve some of these problems. A 331 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:08,240 Speaker 2: lot of the fixes are quite technical, and I think 332 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:10,160 Speaker 2: that you're completely right to say that anything that can 333 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:13,400 Speaker 2: be cast as socialism is sort of immediately ejected out 334 00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:16,479 Speaker 2: of hand. But I do think that for instance, covering 335 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 2: all children under Medicare right, just up to the age 336 00:18:20,560 --> 00:18:26,399 Speaker 2: of eighteen you get Medicare great, or expanding Medicaid coverage, 337 00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:30,920 Speaker 2: lowering the Medicare age so more people get onto those plans, 338 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 2: which tend to be much more cost controlled, are all 339 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:36,280 Speaker 2: policy solutions, and again, I think that you just need 340 00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:38,840 Speaker 2: something that sells it to the American people. It's why 341 00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:41,600 Speaker 2: I think drug prices are probably a really really good 342 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:43,840 Speaker 2: place to start. And you know, Trump is trying to 343 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:46,840 Speaker 2: do this, right, We're going to negotiate drug costs. You're 344 00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:49,720 Speaker 2: going to get ozebic for seventy dollars a month, like 345 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:52,680 Speaker 2: I think that people would be okay with that, Whereas 346 00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 2: we're going to take away your private insurance and push 347 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:57,840 Speaker 2: you onto a public option. And yeah, you know, the 348 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:00,920 Speaker 2: ACA was a real Frankenstein bill. Well, the American health 349 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:03,000 Speaker 2: system is not what anybody would design if you were 350 00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 2: effort designing it. I do think that there's like a 351 00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:09,399 Speaker 2: set of really really good, effective policies that are not 352 00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:12,040 Speaker 2: going to win anybody in election, and then some like 353 00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:14,800 Speaker 2: treats and goodies that I think could really help help 354 00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:17,000 Speaker 2: folks win an election, regardless of whether they were a 355 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:18,639 Speaker 2: Democrat or a Republican. 356 00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:40,240 Speaker 3: Nancy. When you're listening to people in DC and Democrats 357 00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 3: are lighting on this affordability agenda, how much of people 358 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 3: thinking of this as a positive agenda leavers that they 359 00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 3: could say they're going to pull if they get back 360 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 3: a retake control of Congress, And how much is this 361 00:19:57,880 --> 00:20:01,479 Speaker 3: is purely negative? This is of opportunism. You know, you 362 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:03,119 Speaker 3: did this to Biden, now we're going to do it 363 00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:03,359 Speaker 3: to you. 364 00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:07,960 Speaker 1: Well, I think the politicians, for politicians, it's just an opportunity. 365 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:12,200 Speaker 1: It's a political opportunity to sort of bash Trump. Democrats 366 00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 1: have been looking for a way to counter Trump for 367 00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:17,399 Speaker 1: a long time successfully and they haven't really found a 368 00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 1: message that sticks and that doesn't make them sound trill, 369 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 1: and so this is a message that they feel like 370 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:26,119 Speaker 1: can work. I do think that there's policy people in 371 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 1: Washington who are thinking through what an affordability agenda could 372 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:34,240 Speaker 1: look like, and you know, are sort of light like 373 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:37,919 Speaker 1: fixating on different buckets than policy people had before. So 374 00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:40,399 Speaker 1: I do think people are thinking about how to make 375 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:43,879 Speaker 1: housing more affordable, how to make electricity more affordable. You know, 376 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:47,760 Speaker 1: when I've covered past elections or past presidential campaigns, a 377 00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:50,959 Speaker 1: lot of the economic policy has revolved around things like 378 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,840 Speaker 1: what should the tax rates be or how much stimulus 379 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:56,920 Speaker 1: should we do? And I do think that the policy 380 00:20:57,000 --> 00:21:00,359 Speaker 1: questions that policy people are focusing on now are a 381 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:03,040 Speaker 1: little bit different and just really tied to kind of 382 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:05,240 Speaker 1: the cost of living things. And so I think that's 383 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:08,760 Speaker 1: a discussion going on in the Democratic Party. And you know, 384 00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:11,480 Speaker 1: one of the most interesting things about the Trump White 385 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,880 Speaker 1: House to me is that he is trying to do 386 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:16,719 Speaker 1: some things to bring the cost of living down and 387 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:20,400 Speaker 1: doing things that actually are supported by Democrats. I mean, 388 00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:23,320 Speaker 1: you know, trying to negotiate drug prices is like something 389 00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:26,920 Speaker 1: that Democrats are into, or you know, the White House 390 00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 1: taking stakes in different companies, particularly related to you know, 391 00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:35,680 Speaker 1: some national security areas. We saw them do it with Intel, 392 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 1: we saw them do it with US deal with some 393 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:40,960 Speaker 1: critical mineral companies. Those are policies that Bernie Zanders and 394 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:45,040 Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren have applauded. And so I do think the 395 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:48,280 Speaker 1: Trump administration is kind of walking this dance of like, 396 00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:51,919 Speaker 1: you know, being very Republican and sort of very huing 397 00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:54,360 Speaker 1: to their mega agenda, but also trying to dip their 398 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:57,200 Speaker 1: toe into things that you know, other people would view 399 00:21:57,240 --> 00:22:00,159 Speaker 1: as definitely kind of in this socialist vein, but it's 400 00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,960 Speaker 1: it's all these politicians kind of trying to figure out 401 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:08,160 Speaker 1: how to tackle these very very complicated and nuanced issues, which, 402 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:10,879 Speaker 1: by the way, are just changing as the US economy 403 00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:13,880 Speaker 1: changes and evolves, and you know, as we're seeing more 404 00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:16,600 Speaker 1: AI in the mix, we're seeing corporate people gain laid off. 405 00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:18,440 Speaker 1: You know, the US economy I feel like, has really 406 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 1: eded this huge moment of transition, and companies are trying 407 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:24,920 Speaker 1: to deal with it, and economists and policy people, but 408 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:26,560 Speaker 1: more politicians. 409 00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:32,880 Speaker 3: And ane. I mean, one point about this agenda is 410 00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:36,480 Speaker 3: that although it's a very national debate, you know, the 411 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:38,440 Speaker 3: kinds of things that you talked about at the beginning 412 00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:42,320 Speaker 3: just sound inherently local, and in fact, some of the 413 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:45,199 Speaker 3: sort of failings, the supply side failings, if you like, 414 00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,919 Speaker 3: have been bigger in some of these big Democrat controlled 415 00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:54,960 Speaker 3: cities San Francisco and elsewhere New York for that matter, 416 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:59,480 Speaker 3: then they have been in Republican states and localities. So 417 00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:02,560 Speaker 3: I just want to, you know, is there a disconnect 418 00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:06,359 Speaker 3: there that although we might be talking nationally about affordability, 419 00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,639 Speaker 3: actually the Democrats still have a challenge to show that 420 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:11,879 Speaker 3: they can do the local things that you're actually going 421 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:13,840 Speaker 3: to need to do to fix these problems. 422 00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:17,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, one thing that I think that we've seen since 423 00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:22,920 Speaker 2: COVID roughly and probably a little bit before that, is 424 00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:28,479 Speaker 2: that what was originally really a problem of you know, 425 00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:32,120 Speaker 2: your Seattle, your San Francisco, your Los Angeles, your DC 426 00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:36,439 Speaker 2: or Boston has really become a national problem. So we 427 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:40,439 Speaker 2: have pretty severe housing shortages in rural counties in the 428 00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:44,119 Speaker 2: United States. Now we have seen our big cities squeezing 429 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:48,080 Speaker 2: families not only to the suburbs, but to less populated areas. 430 00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:51,120 Speaker 4: So, you know, since COVID, we've seen. 431 00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:54,439 Speaker 2: Rural population growth for the first time in a long time, 432 00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:57,840 Speaker 2: facilitated by the shift to work from home, but also 433 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:01,240 Speaker 2: just by this tremendous squeezing of the loon. Right, people 434 00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:04,160 Speaker 2: have to go someplace, and people are moving to these 435 00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:09,280 Speaker 2: lower cost areas, most notably in the south right Arizona, Texas, 436 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:10,679 Speaker 2: where the cost of living is lower. 437 00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:13,000 Speaker 4: But you know, I have talked to. 438 00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,840 Speaker 2: Folks who live in the suburbs outside of San Antonio, 439 00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:19,920 Speaker 2: for instance, and prices are going up a lot there. 440 00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:22,240 Speaker 4: Which is really pretty remarkable. 441 00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:24,840 Speaker 2: So the crisis is everywhere, and I do think that 442 00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:28,359 Speaker 2: the cost of other things like childcare is downstream from 443 00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:31,159 Speaker 2: housing costs, right, and the fact that you have a 444 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,439 Speaker 2: relatively low unemployment rate, and also the high cost of 445 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 2: things like materials and electricity, all of this is part 446 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,640 Speaker 2: of one system. And so I do think that that 447 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,600 Speaker 2: has shifted the conversation for Democrats that they can make 448 00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:45,520 Speaker 2: this argument, Yeah, we're not just doing this for people 449 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:47,719 Speaker 2: who are complaining about the cost of rent in Providence, 450 00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:50,520 Speaker 2: Rhode Island. We're doing this for you because we see 451 00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,879 Speaker 2: that you're getting squeezed by the same forces. And so 452 00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:57,000 Speaker 2: I think that we've now seen even just a rural 453 00:24:57,040 --> 00:25:00,320 Speaker 2: eviction crisis. We're in some rural areas the eviction rate 454 00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:03,040 Speaker 2: is matching that you have in some of the big cities, 455 00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 2: which is really remarkable. 456 00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,080 Speaker 4: So I do think that this is nationalized as a problem. 457 00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:10,360 Speaker 2: On top of the fact that the media environment has nationalized, 458 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,720 Speaker 2: the parties have obviously nationalized in terms of their focus. 459 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:15,639 Speaker 2: That said, I do think that a lot of the 460 00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:18,960 Speaker 2: answers are going to be local on housing, and I 461 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:22,400 Speaker 2: think that it will be a really really big puzzle 462 00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,720 Speaker 2: for Democrats and Republicans to figure out the best way 463 00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:33,080 Speaker 2: to incentivize localities to harmonize their building codes, to change 464 00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 2: zoning rules. 465 00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:35,880 Speaker 4: All of those kinds of things. 466 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:39,000 Speaker 2: Childcare, it's a bit different because I do think that 467 00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:42,879 Speaker 2: you just need a big pump of money to create supply. 468 00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,960 Speaker 2: These are very low wage jobs. Childcare is still very 469 00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:49,639 Speaker 2: unaffordable for parents. No other country has ever solved this 470 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,639 Speaker 2: problem except with a lot of cash. New York is 471 00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 2: obviously trying to do this at the municipal level, but 472 00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:58,600 Speaker 2: it means a fairly large tax increase on a relatively 473 00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:02,160 Speaker 2: small base. So there's a lot of looking at these 474 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 2: kind of laboratories of democracy to figure out if states 475 00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:06,600 Speaker 2: and localities can figure it out for themselves. 476 00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 3: My experience, and I suspect yours too, but certainly as 477 00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:14,000 Speaker 3: a TV correspondent in the UK, and these are obviously 478 00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:17,760 Speaker 3: these cost of living issues were are now very resonant 479 00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:20,480 Speaker 3: in the UK and some other countries as well. My 480 00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:22,720 Speaker 3: experience is that no one ever recognizes that things have 481 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:25,439 Speaker 3: got better, at least from a price standpoint. You know, 482 00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:27,639 Speaker 3: you can have like all the data can say the 483 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,879 Speaker 3: cost of this has gone down, We've slowed the rise 484 00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:33,280 Speaker 3: in this, that and the other. You will never find 485 00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:36,280 Speaker 3: anyone who admits that anything has got easier or cheaper. 486 00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,560 Speaker 3: So I just wonder on you, once we've now got 487 00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,720 Speaker 3: everybody on this affordability train, I mean, nobody is going 488 00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:45,760 Speaker 3: to start thinking that their lives have got cheaper, and 489 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:47,600 Speaker 3: no one's really going to notice to your point, and 490 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:51,040 Speaker 3: that wages have more than kept up with some of 491 00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:55,600 Speaker 3: these increases. So I mean, how the Democrats, particularly if 492 00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,840 Speaker 3: they're going to really push this agenda, guard against that, 493 00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:00,399 Speaker 3: because it seems to me we're just going to get 494 00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:05,600 Speaker 3: into a cycle where one side promises to resolve the 495 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,560 Speaker 3: affordability crisis and then the other side beats them up 496 00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 3: for not having done it a couple of years later. 497 00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:12,280 Speaker 1: Well, I think that that's going to be a huge 498 00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:14,520 Speaker 1: challenge for Democrats. I think that's what we've seen over 499 00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:17,240 Speaker 1: the last few years, and I'm not super optimistic that 500 00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:19,800 Speaker 1: it will change. Just to be really honest with you, 501 00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:24,480 Speaker 1: the Biden administration had a really mixed record on the economy. 502 00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:27,560 Speaker 1: They pulled the US out of the pandemic, which was 503 00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:31,920 Speaker 1: a huge feat, and unemployment was pretty low. That big 504 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:35,320 Speaker 1: rescue package was probably overly inflationary, so it was a 505 00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:38,639 Speaker 1: mixed picture. But like all Americans, saw were higher prices 506 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,080 Speaker 1: for you know, paper towels and eggs and milk, and 507 00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:43,560 Speaker 1: that's what they held them accountable for. And so I 508 00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:47,159 Speaker 1: just think it's very hard to, you know, in any 509 00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:50,440 Speaker 1: type of political campaign, sort of messaged the nuance there. 510 00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:53,520 Speaker 1: And you know, we're seeing Trump have that challenge now. 511 00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:56,480 Speaker 1: You know, immediately after the election last week or the elections, 512 00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:58,960 Speaker 1: he was talking about how Republicans needed to do a 513 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,600 Speaker 1: better job of talking about the economy. You're talking about 514 00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 1: the tax bill. He was sort of lashing out, treating 515 00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:07,440 Speaker 1: this like a messaging problem and not a policy problem. 516 00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,359 Speaker 1: I think the biggest problem is Republicans don't talk about it. 517 00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,960 Speaker 2: They don't talk about the word affordability. 518 00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:14,720 Speaker 1: And so I think it will be really tricky for 519 00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:18,359 Speaker 1: people at the federal level in Congress and the White 520 00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:21,280 Speaker 1: House to sort of solve these things. And you know, 521 00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:24,720 Speaker 1: Republicans control everything right now in Washington, and they're not 522 00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:26,040 Speaker 1: able to control these things. 523 00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:26,600 Speaker 4: Now. 524 00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:30,160 Speaker 3: He's the also to focus on a couple of visible 525 00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:33,879 Speaker 3: things at the federal level. Do they need to be 526 00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:36,760 Speaker 3: kind of ruthless about just focusing on a handful of 527 00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:41,920 Speaker 3: concrete things that people will notice rather than taking responsibility 528 00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,000 Speaker 3: for what happens to the price of chicken and eggs. 529 00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:48,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, So I think that there is a real lesson 530 00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:53,200 Speaker 2: in Zurnmum Donnie's candidacy, and that a lot of things 531 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:58,600 Speaker 2: to note about his talent as a politician, right, really 532 00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:02,840 Speaker 2: positive speaking to a lot of different groups of New Yorkers, 533 00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:08,440 Speaker 2: real focus on affordability, real tangible policy proposals that were 534 00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:15,520 Speaker 2: easy to understand, fast free buses, universal childcare, municipal grocery stores. Right, 535 00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:20,040 Speaker 2: these are things that New Yorkers could get right, and 536 00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:22,800 Speaker 2: we can see four years from now, did he accomplish 537 00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:26,240 Speaker 2: these things or did he not? And so I think 538 00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:27,920 Speaker 2: when you go back and you look at the Biden 539 00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:31,880 Speaker 2: reelection campaign, it was really hard to say exactly what. 540 00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:32,800 Speaker 4: They were running on. 541 00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:36,120 Speaker 2: They had like a million policy proposals, a lot of 542 00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:39,320 Speaker 2: which were really technical. They were running on these big 543 00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:42,960 Speaker 2: bills that even now, if you asked me what was 544 00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:46,840 Speaker 2: in the IRA, right, like, I would probably take twenty 545 00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:47,240 Speaker 2: minutes to. 546 00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:48,520 Speaker 4: Answer that question. 547 00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:52,680 Speaker 2: And so I think that there is this importance of gestural, 548 00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:57,160 Speaker 2: simple bumper stickery policy making. And I think that jd. 549 00:29:57,320 --> 00:29:59,440 Speaker 2: Vance is going to face this problem, right, what does 550 00:29:59,480 --> 00:29:59,920 Speaker 2: he run on? 551 00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:01,560 Speaker 4: Trump notably. 552 00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:05,520 Speaker 2: You know, he wasn't sort of policy forward as a 553 00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:09,280 Speaker 2: candidate either time, So there's exceptions. Trump has a very 554 00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:12,360 Speaker 2: different type of political genius, right, Yeah. 555 00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,760 Speaker 4: I think that for politicians. 556 00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:17,560 Speaker 2: On both sides, making it so that you're not responsible 557 00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:20,680 Speaker 2: for the entirety of the affordability crisis, but instead you're 558 00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:24,880 Speaker 2: promising things that you can actually deliver. I think that 559 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:26,920 Speaker 2: that that's going to be really important. 560 00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:29,640 Speaker 1: Just to jump in here for one second. One of 561 00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:32,440 Speaker 1: the advantages that Democrats do have, which we saw with 562 00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:36,160 Speaker 1: the elections last week, is that a very diverse roster 563 00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:39,840 Speaker 1: of candidates. One so mont Damia, New York, you know, 564 00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:44,120 Speaker 1: is a Democratic socialist, but then thedidate. The gubernatorial candidates 565 00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:49,680 Speaker 1: in Virginia and New Jersey are real moderate female candidates, 566 00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:53,240 Speaker 1: experienced politicians who come out of national security backgrounds with 567 00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:56,520 Speaker 1: very centrist messages. So the Democratic Party at least at 568 00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,480 Speaker 1: this point, is very willing to kind of have a 569 00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:02,760 Speaker 1: lot of different types of candidates, and that is helpful 570 00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:06,760 Speaker 1: I think for solving affordability or unique problems at the 571 00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:10,320 Speaker 1: local level. The Republican Party is completely run by Trump 572 00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:13,320 Speaker 1: at this point, and if you defy him, even at 573 00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:17,120 Speaker 1: a local level, there is sort of retribution, there are 574 00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:20,520 Speaker 1: threats that they're going to get primary like everyone in 575 00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:23,640 Speaker 1: the entire party, including governors, need to be on the 576 00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:27,200 Speaker 1: Trump agenda, and so I think Democrats have an opportunity 577 00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:30,160 Speaker 1: in that because you know, what Gavin Newsom is doing 578 00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:33,120 Speaker 1: in California, you know, can be completely different than what 579 00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:35,360 Speaker 1: Abigail's Banberger is going to do in Virginia, and the 580 00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:38,440 Speaker 1: party is okay with that. 581 00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:41,760 Speaker 3: That is a very wise point to end on. Thank you, Nancy. 582 00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:45,479 Speaker 3: It's a sort of unapologetically US focused episode, even by 583 00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:47,560 Speaker 3: the standards of Trumponomics, but I think it's all right 584 00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:51,080 Speaker 3: for once. Thank you very much, Annie Lowry and. 585 00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:52,600 Speaker 1: Lacy Coote, thanks for having me. 586 00:31:52,880 --> 00:32:00,960 Speaker 3: Thank you, thanks for listening to trump Ponomics from Bloomberg. 587 00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,480 Speaker 3: It was hosted by me Stephanie Flanders, and I was 588 00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:06,640 Speaker 3: joined by Annie Lowry, star writer at The Atlantic, and 589 00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:16,080 Speaker 3: Bloomberg's senior national political correspondent, Nancy Cook. Trumponomics was produced 590 00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:19,120 Speaker 3: by Summer Sadi and Moses and with help from Amy 591 00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:22,479 Speaker 3: Keen and special thanks this week to Rachel Lewis Chris Key. 592 00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:26,400 Speaker 3: Sound design is by Blake Maples and Nick Johnson and 593 00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:30,960 Speaker 3: Sage Bowman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. To help others 594 00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:34,360 Speaker 3: find the show, please rate and review it highly wherever 595 00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:34,800 Speaker 3: you listen.