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I am Brendan 22 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:24,880 Speaker 1: Glashen of the Action Network, filling in for Chad Millman, 23 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:28,479 Speaker 1: who was out traveling today, but we'll return next episode. 24 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:32,040 Speaker 1: I'm joined by Chad's beloved co host, the Professional Gambler, 25 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 1: Simon Hunter. Simon, thanks for letting me slide in today 26 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 1: here to talk about the NFL Draft on today's episode. 27 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 1: How are you today, good Man? Yeah, thanks for helping out. 28 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 1: Of course, Chad. We don't work that many weeks doing 29 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:46,200 Speaker 1: NFL stuff, Chad and miss is the most important week 30 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:49,520 Speaker 1: with draft coverage. Hopefully he'll be back to our next show. 31 00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 1: But I see why you put our runner. It's like, man, 32 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 1: it's been a really tough year for mock drafters. Like 33 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 1: it's it's truly we're in the deep end here just 34 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 1: because it's gonna be really fun breaking all down. We 35 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 1: usually know who's gonna be a couple of first picks, 36 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 1: at least you know that maybe the top five. Maybe 37 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 1: we know you know, five or six guys are gonna 38 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 1: be top ten. We don't really know a lot of us. 39 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:10,359 Speaker 1: We have good guests. We kind of think we know 40 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:12,960 Speaker 1: what teams are gonna do, but from I don't know. 41 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:15,080 Speaker 1: From my ten years of doing mock drafts, this is 42 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 1: one of the least confident drafts I've ever had. But 43 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 1: for somehow I still have a ton of betsin so 44 00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:22,080 Speaker 1: we'll definitely dive into all that. You always find a 45 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 1: way right all of our betting coverage. Of course, we're 46 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:26,960 Speaker 1: looking forward to having it leading up to Thursday's first 47 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 1: round for the NFL Draft, we have a very special 48 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 1: guest Action Network contributor NFL mock draft, Maven Scott Smith. 49 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:37,080 Speaker 1: Every year, our friends at Fantasy Pros ranked the most 50 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 1: accurate NFL mock drafters. In eighteen, Scott finished number one. 51 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 1: Last year he finished top three, and this guy is 52 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 1: objectively one of the best NFL draft experts anywhere. His 53 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:50,799 Speaker 1: latest mock is available now, so be sure to check 54 00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 1: it out at the Action Network at Action network dot com, 55 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:56,919 Speaker 1: or of course on the Action app. That's a long 56 00:02:56,919 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 1: way of introducing Scott Smith. Scott Welcome, what's going on? 57 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 1: Are you going guys? Look it's it's trunch time. I'm 58 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 1: kinda getting into the nitty gritty prepared my last market. 59 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:09,079 Speaker 1: It's gonna drop on Thursday at the Accident Network. I'll 60 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:11,959 Speaker 1: be submitting at Wednesday night. But uh, look at lyon 61 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:14,080 Speaker 1: season right now, so you kind of gotta like sift 62 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 1: through the smoke and see what's really fire and what's not. Yes, 63 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:19,800 Speaker 1: slide detector tests are out there. Scott, care to react 64 00:03:19,840 --> 00:03:23,239 Speaker 1: to what Simon's leadoff thought was, just it's a I would, 65 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:25,240 Speaker 1: I would guess from your perspective, one of the more 66 00:03:25,320 --> 00:03:27,960 Speaker 1: challenging years to try and figure out who's going at 67 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:30,160 Speaker 1: the top of this draft. Look and and I could 68 00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:31,919 Speaker 1: be said for the last couple of years as well, 69 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:34,240 Speaker 1: when you had COVID kind of hitting and causing some 70 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 1: problems every year, it's pretty difficult to go ahead and predict. 71 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 1: But this year that the issue that you've really falling 72 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 1: into is somewhat with the betting odds that are shifting 73 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 1: plus or minus three hundred on a day to day basis, 74 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 1: and you're seeing huge swings just within hours here and there, 75 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 1: So some things to kind of work work through, especially 76 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 1: from betting odds and a betting standpoint as well. So 77 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 1: we will get to Scott's favorite bets that's coming your way. Now. 78 00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 1: We'll start with a couple of Sea team centric bets. 79 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 1: Also get into positions like receiver, potentially some quarterback quarterback 80 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:09,200 Speaker 1: discussion as well as, uh maybe if we do see 81 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 1: any first round quarterbacks in the NFL draft. So, Scott, 82 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 1: you want to begin with the New York Giants. They 83 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 1: select number five overall in the first round. What's your 84 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:22,080 Speaker 1: angle here on the gm N we're going ahead and 85 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:25,239 Speaker 1: preparing for the show. Charles Cross is a guy who's 86 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:27,000 Speaker 1: been getting a lot of smoke and uh, you know, 87 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 1: a lot of connections there to the Giants. Peter Schreger 88 00:04:29,200 --> 00:04:32,600 Speaker 1: has had multiple of his connections Lincoln Charles Cross there. 89 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:35,480 Speaker 1: I was getting it at plus five plus four fifty 90 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 1: and here right before we start the show, you go 91 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:39,840 Speaker 1: ahead and check and it's Charles Cross at number five 92 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:42,479 Speaker 1: two Giants at plus two fifty. I still think that 93 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 1: there's a little bit of value there, but that number 94 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:47,840 Speaker 1: is a number that's consistently kind of shrinking. So I 95 00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:49,880 Speaker 1: think it's another thing where there's smoked. There's a little 96 00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:51,560 Speaker 1: bit of fire there with the Giants, and I think 97 00:04:51,560 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 1: there's there's also a long shot here with Charles Cross 98 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:56,800 Speaker 1: to the Giants that I think that could play out. 99 00:04:57,040 --> 00:04:59,279 Speaker 1: I think it is possible that you could see a 100 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:02,920 Speaker 1: situation where this draft starts off and falls with Trey Lane, 101 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 1: Walker and Ade Hutchinson go on one too. Look, Derek 102 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:09,120 Speaker 1: Stingley is another guy who is starting to get a 103 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:11,839 Speaker 1: lot of heat there. You know, Lancer Line is connecting 104 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:15,160 Speaker 1: him there with Houston. And if you know that, you're 105 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 1: sitting there with the Jets at four and they decide 106 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:19,800 Speaker 1: to go ahead and pass on the offensive lineman and 107 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 1: go say Cavon Thibodeaux or my gardener, you know, I 108 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: think there's a longside at plus seven hundred. You can 109 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:27,479 Speaker 1: find on some of the sports vets for Charles Crossing 110 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:30,839 Speaker 1: the first offensive player taken off the in the draft 111 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:33,480 Speaker 1: off the board there to the Giants at five. Yeah. 112 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:37,160 Speaker 1: Adam Schefter had a report earlier in the week about 113 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 1: Daniel Jones and whether or not the team will decide 114 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:42,359 Speaker 1: to pick up the fifth year option um and that that, 115 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 1: of course is notable because if indeed they want to 116 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 1: rebuild the offensive line around Jones, would make some sense. Regardless, 117 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:49,880 Speaker 1: I guess who the quarterback is. You want to get 118 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 1: that left tackle in place and sort of bring your 119 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 1: you know, bring your point to more light. Uh. The 120 00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 1: Giants draft special available on draft Kings to draft an 121 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:01,560 Speaker 1: offensive lineman Simon at minus thirty. You think Scott's onto 122 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 1: something here that they're gonna go a line with their 123 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:06,000 Speaker 1: fifth pick. Yeah, I don't hate that. I mean, this 124 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 1: is this is such a big draft for this Giants team, 125 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:10,920 Speaker 1: having two picks in the top seven, and what we're 126 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:13,839 Speaker 1: talking about is pretty loaded draft. Again, it's just a 127 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 1: draft all through the first round. There's just a lot 128 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:19,840 Speaker 1: of really solid interior alignment, offensive lineman d d backs. 129 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 1: I mean, there's a lot of ways they could go here. 130 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:23,600 Speaker 1: I love that play. I love for them to get 131 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 1: a tackle where it's just like, yeah, they're apparently going 132 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 1: to roll it out again with Daniel Jones. Me personally, 133 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 1: I've either roll a dice in a quarterback or you're 134 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:33,080 Speaker 1: hoping Daniel Jones is so bad this year, you get 135 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 1: one of these studs next year, one of these quarterbacks. 136 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 1: So for me, I'm going to offensive linement that that 137 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:39,159 Speaker 1: seems like a smart player. I love that play. The 138 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:42,520 Speaker 1: first offensive player drafted. That's a really heavy play because 139 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:45,599 Speaker 1: from what I've read all these top teams are looking 140 00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:48,040 Speaker 1: at defense in those first four picks, so I do 141 00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:50,760 Speaker 1: like that. It's very interesting play. And just to clarify, 142 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:53,920 Speaker 1: the report from Schefter was a week from the six. 143 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:56,240 Speaker 1: The next week the Giants and then of course will 144 00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 1: impact well, we'll find out who they end up drafting, 145 00:06:58,120 --> 00:06:59,840 Speaker 1: but they will decide on whether or not they pick 146 00:06:59,880 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 1: up the twenty two point three eight million dollar fiftyear option. 147 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:05,159 Speaker 1: If they decline the option, Jones would play this season 148 00:07:05,680 --> 00:07:08,839 Speaker 1: on an expiring contract. So we'll see what the Giants 149 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:12,560 Speaker 1: do at five and at seven. Currently that's where they 150 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 1: are selecting. Uh, Scott, Moving down the board, you've got 151 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 1: your eyes on the Tennessee Titans. They're picking at twenty 152 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 1: six overall on Thursday night. What is your angle on 153 00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 1: the Titans? Yeah, Look, the Titans are kind of all 154 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 1: over the place with sum of their needs. I've actually 155 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 1: been leaning a little bit more towards the quarterback being 156 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:34,200 Speaker 1: a selection for them. I think you start looking at 157 00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 1: Ryan Tannehills getting a little bit up there in age, 158 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:39,360 Speaker 1: he's thirty four. You look at the fact that they 159 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 1: had success last season and managed to get that number 160 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:44,120 Speaker 1: one overall seed there in the A f C. But 161 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 1: when it came to the playoffs, he just fell flat. 162 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 1: And I think, you know, even if we if we 163 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 1: start looking at the quarterbacks in the situation there currently, 164 00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:55,280 Speaker 1: I'm kind of leaning towards Kenney Pickett. And you can 165 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:59,080 Speaker 1: get some longshot odds there at plus fifteen hundred on DraftKings, 166 00:07:59,120 --> 00:08:03,400 Speaker 1: but just d afting Titans and connecting a quarterback there 167 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:06,320 Speaker 1: to the Titans, you can get plus six hundred odds. 168 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 1: And you talk about some of their quarterback numbers right now, 169 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 1: the over and under sitting at about two and a half. 170 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 1: Desmond Ritter is another guy who's been getting you know, 171 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 1: a lot of heat. They're talking about him possibly being 172 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:19,640 Speaker 1: a first round selection and being that third quarterback that 173 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 1: pushes that over. And I think, you know, sitting there 174 00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:26,080 Speaker 1: looking at Tennessee, I think Tennessee could be a surprising 175 00:08:26,080 --> 00:08:29,280 Speaker 1: team that could possibly draft the quarterback. Yeah, I mean 176 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:32,319 Speaker 1: that's a that's a bold one, sir. I mean the 177 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:33,719 Speaker 1: team that was the number one seed in the a 178 00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 1: f C. But Ryan Tannehill tends to show his glaring 179 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 1: flaws in big games. And see that playoff game against 180 00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 1: the Bengal Simon any thought on the potential of Tennessee 181 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:48,840 Speaker 1: taking a quarterback, which, by the way, as Scott mentioned, 182 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:51,719 Speaker 1: first round quarterbacks drafted the over at two and a 183 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:54,600 Speaker 1: half has juiced all the way to minus to fifty. Yeah, 184 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 1: I've actually we gave that. I think it was at 185 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:59,079 Speaker 1: minus one seventy five last week or minus two hundred. 186 00:08:59,120 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 1: We we love that in this was on my big board. 187 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 1: One of the teams I had taken a quarterback. I 188 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 1: have tendency I have been lane of trading back in 189 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 1: or I have Detroit trading back into the first round 190 00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 1: to grab a quarterback. So to me, Ritter and Matt Correll, 191 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 1: there's a guys kind of guys were into the first round. 192 00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 1: You know, we all see these guys. Deficiencies are plenty 193 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,320 Speaker 1: of teams have talked about it, but that we again 194 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 1: you just talked about here with Daniel Jones, that fifth 195 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:23,040 Speaker 1: year options such a big deal. Daniel Jones stinks they're 196 00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:25,160 Speaker 1: not gonna pick up that option most likely, but if 197 00:09:25,160 --> 00:09:27,959 Speaker 1: they are, stud you get that fifth year option, you're 198 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:31,240 Speaker 1: saving fifteen twenty million dollars and that fifth year. So 199 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 1: to me, it makes sense why these teams are gonna 200 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:36,640 Speaker 1: get back into this first round. Take a quarterback end Tennessee. 201 00:09:36,679 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 1: I like that move just because they have Tannehill there 202 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:42,160 Speaker 1: wherever they draft late in this first round, no problem 203 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:44,000 Speaker 1: sitting there for a year or two. So I actually 204 00:09:44,040 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 1: liked that play for Tennessee. Scott. Staying on the subject 205 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 1: of quarterbacks, you want to give us some more details 206 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:54,440 Speaker 1: on your predictions as to how many and what quarterbacks 207 00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 1: you already hit onto the bit with the Titans, but 208 00:09:56,880 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 1: predictions for first round quarterbacks, Yeah, I think when you're 209 00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:03,440 Speaker 1: looking at it, anytime I'm setting up a mock draft, 210 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:05,559 Speaker 1: you're looking at a draft board, I think you really 211 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 1: have to to set your board based around quarterbacks. Normally. 212 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 1: That would make the top ten round out a little 213 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:13,400 Speaker 1: bit differently and be a little bit more secure. What 214 00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 1: who's gonna be those top ten players? I think with 215 00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 1: this draft, and they're just not being a blue chip 216 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 1: quarterback prospect that everybody sold on, I think you can 217 00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 1: start looking at some of these quarterbacks falling. Daniel Jeremiah 218 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:28,680 Speaker 1: did report yesterday that one of his big predictions for 219 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:31,439 Speaker 1: this draft is that sitting there at twenty, he thinks 220 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 1: that all the quarterbacks are gonna be there available for Pittsburgh. 221 00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 1: I actually have Malik Willis, who's probably gonna be in 222 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:41,240 Speaker 1: my final mock draft there mock to Pittsburgh. I think, uh, 223 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:44,439 Speaker 1: that's a team that that has shown their hand prior 224 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 1: to to the draft, starting in these these last couple 225 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:48,840 Speaker 1: of years, and I think it's a good match. They've 226 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:51,280 Speaker 1: been linked to him since the Senior Bowl. I think 227 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 1: you look at Trabsky, I don't think he's on solid footing. 228 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 1: I think he's just gonna be a bridge quarterback. And 229 00:10:57,000 --> 00:10:59,720 Speaker 1: you hear about Malik Willis having the most upside of 230 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:01,680 Speaker 1: the quarterbacks. I think that would be a good fit 231 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:03,880 Speaker 1: for him to be able to to go ahead and 232 00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:06,720 Speaker 1: be drafted about Pittsburgh and maybe city year or two. Yeah, 233 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:08,640 Speaker 1: like what Scott just said there about the quarterback thing, 234 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:11,439 Speaker 1: where it is like I coming into I really did 235 00:11:11,440 --> 00:11:14,319 Speaker 1: not see a quarterback point of the top ten, and 236 00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:15,880 Speaker 1: now I'm getting a little nervous. It was just like 237 00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:18,959 Speaker 1: Carolina made sense to me to graphic quarterback. Maybe the Seahawks. 238 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 1: Is that why the Saints have two first round picks 239 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 1: now because they want to trade up to get one 240 00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 1: of these quarterbacks in the first round. And the more 241 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:26,760 Speaker 1: I read, the more mocks I look at it's like 242 00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:28,560 Speaker 1: what he's just talking about. Scott just said, it's these 243 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:31,600 Speaker 1: guys are mocking these quarterbacks the Pittsburgh at the twentieth 244 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:34,000 Speaker 1: pick or whatever. So to me that that would hurt 245 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 1: if these quarterbacks dropped late because I have a lot 246 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:38,199 Speaker 1: invested in these quarterbacks. So it will be interesting to 247 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:40,680 Speaker 1: see if these teams actually do it, Like that's gotta 248 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 1: be a scary thing like the Patriots did last year. 249 00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:44,440 Speaker 1: You just sit there and you wait for mac Jones 250 00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:47,079 Speaker 1: to drop to a fifteen. You're you're betting on him dropping. 251 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 1: So we'll see if these teams have the cojones to 252 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:51,680 Speaker 1: wait and just sit there and let these quarterbacks drop. Yeah, 253 00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 1: and if anything, if you're in those if you're drafting 254 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:58,680 Speaker 1: in that top nineteen, just lay your groundwork for next 255 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:01,240 Speaker 1: year and get a are back in a better class. 256 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 1: That might be the mindset as well. Right, So it 257 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:06,400 Speaker 1: makes some sense as to why some teams, maybe like 258 00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:08,520 Speaker 1: a Seattle Pete Carroll, can be stubborn and say, well, 259 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 1: I can rebuild this thing on the fly and I 260 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 1: can worry about the quarterback later because I commit without 261 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:15,560 Speaker 1: a quarterback. Um, despite how loaded his division is, we 262 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:19,160 Speaker 1: think UM moving to the we'll stay on the offensive 263 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:21,920 Speaker 1: side of the ball and go to wide receiver. You 264 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:24,480 Speaker 1: have thoughts on just receivers in general going in the 265 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:28,200 Speaker 1: first round, but more specifically Scott first wide receiver coming 266 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:30,880 Speaker 1: off the board. Who do you like? Yeah, this is 267 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 1: something that's kind of changed here. But I think when 268 00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:35,079 Speaker 1: we start looking at those top ten teams and I 269 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:38,080 Speaker 1: land specifically on Atlanta there at eight is being the 270 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:40,720 Speaker 1: primary spot for the first wide receiver come off the board. 271 00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:43,520 Speaker 1: Garrett Wilson was the early favorite, and when you look 272 00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 1: at the odds, he's still the favorite there at one ten. 273 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 1: The person that I'm actually linking there is gonna be 274 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:51,080 Speaker 1: Drake London, who you can get a little bit better odds. 275 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:53,319 Speaker 1: I think he's sitting around plus two fifty right now. 276 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:56,520 Speaker 1: I just think with that coaching staff, author Smith in particular, 277 00:12:56,679 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 1: he likes bigger wide receivers, that that position group is 278 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:02,680 Speaker 1: probably the worst position group there for Atlanta in the 279 00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:05,560 Speaker 1: entire NFL um You start looking at what there are 280 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:07,439 Speaker 1: other options might be, and I would kind of lean 281 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:09,839 Speaker 1: towards edge. They were pretty horrible at putting pressure on 282 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 1: the past there as well. But I just don't think 283 00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:13,960 Speaker 1: that that position group there at wide receiver is one 284 00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:16,520 Speaker 1: where they can sit there and go into the second 285 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 1: round without being able to take one of these premium 286 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:21,840 Speaker 1: wide receivers. And right now I have Drake London as 287 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 1: to being that guy that I think is a good 288 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:24,960 Speaker 1: bet to go off the board as the first wide 289 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 1: receiver selected. And he's got the third shortest odds on 290 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:31,720 Speaker 1: DraftKings for first receiver selected, like you said, plus two fifty. 291 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:34,280 Speaker 1: So I'm in a lot of hype around Jamison Williams. 292 00:13:34,280 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 1: Is there any fear that Williams might be the guy 293 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:41,280 Speaker 1: who could could cut Scott's pick off? I love him, 294 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 1: I really do. Have watched a lot of tape on 295 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 1: this kid, and I'm as an Egos fan, I'm dying 296 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:47,680 Speaker 1: for this could have dropped to us because well of him, 297 00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:51,160 Speaker 1: we'll have again the Heisman winner from Alabama from last year. 298 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:54,160 Speaker 1: And as much I like Hurts, he's terrible this year. 299 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:56,080 Speaker 1: Next year we get Bryce Young. To me, that would 300 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 1: just be hilarious. We just had literally the Alabama offense 301 00:13:58,480 --> 00:14:01,360 Speaker 1: running the Eagles team. So I love Williams upside, but 302 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:03,559 Speaker 1: I would honestly take I'd take one and ahead of 303 00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:06,839 Speaker 1: him just London's bigger, he's stronger, and he hasn't torn 304 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 1: his knee up. So to me, I like the bet. 305 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:11,280 Speaker 1: I think that teams are really like you know, they 306 00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:13,200 Speaker 1: just want to play it safe. Again, we haven't talked 307 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:15,280 Speaker 1: about number one pick yet, but I feel like at 308 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:17,079 Speaker 1: this time of year, a lot of these teams, most 309 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 1: of them want to play it safe because you just 310 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:20,560 Speaker 1: want to keep their jobs. So Drake London first pick 311 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:23,680 Speaker 1: for wide receiver, that that actually sounds pretty good to me. So, 312 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:26,440 Speaker 1: as we discussed before we went live on on the 313 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:29,840 Speaker 1: pod today, um, a lot of stuff just keeps moving. 314 00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:31,880 Speaker 1: There's a lot of movement for this draft this year 315 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 1: because of the uncertainty. To Simon's point, who might go 316 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 1: number one. But the number to me that's interesting is 317 00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:41,360 Speaker 1: first round, first round wide receivers. And we're staying on 318 00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 1: the topic of receiver. Scott, you could get it around 319 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:46,480 Speaker 1: five and a half and a lot of folks were thinking, okay, 320 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 1: take the over on that, but now it's moved a 321 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:53,000 Speaker 1: full receiver up to six and a half and you 322 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 1: can get the over. The under is juiced at minus 323 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 1: one twenty over at minus one ten. So now with 324 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 1: that extra receive we're added to that number, to that, 325 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 1: to that prop Does that change you're thinking at all? 326 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:05,920 Speaker 1: And I should I should ask you what was your 327 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:08,440 Speaker 1: initial thought process on when you saw a number at 328 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 1: five and a half and then how it moved to 329 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 1: six and a half for receivers in the first round. Yeah. 330 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 1: One of the things I've been talking about is I 331 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 1: just think the the financial landscape of the NFL is 332 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 1: really changing. And I've said that here the past couple 333 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:22,480 Speaker 1: of weeks. You start looking at Davante Adams, Tyreek Kio 334 00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 1: and even and even on the flip side of that, 335 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:26,680 Speaker 1: like some of the contracts that like Denzel Ward has 336 00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 1: gotten as a as a cornerback. So I think when 337 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 1: you start looking at how juice some of these contracts are, 338 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,200 Speaker 1: you're gonna see more and more wide receivers and cornerbacks 339 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:39,000 Speaker 1: sliding in to to the end of these first rounds. 340 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:42,080 Speaker 1: Um Initially I was pounding the over at five and 341 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 1: a half. I think the market has corrected itself here 342 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:47,040 Speaker 1: at six and a half and here at six and 343 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:49,520 Speaker 1: a half with with minus one's one in minus one 344 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:51,680 Speaker 1: ten on on the over and under. It's a bet 345 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 1: that I'm kind of staying away from UM. I think 346 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 1: when you start looking at it, I think six is 347 00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 1: kind of the number that I'm a little bit more 348 00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:00,480 Speaker 1: comfortable with. I think one of the areas that you 349 00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:02,720 Speaker 1: might want to look at that could be sliding into 350 00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 1: that top thirty two would be George Pickens. I think 351 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 1: he's a guy. He's got some off the fielding, a 352 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 1: little bit of character concerns, but he's a good fit. 353 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:12,320 Speaker 1: I think there to Green Bay at eight. But I 354 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 1: think when you start looking at some other things and 355 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:17,680 Speaker 1: you start looking at teams light Green Bay, Kansas City 356 00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 1: sitting there with two picks, I could see a situation 357 00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:23,360 Speaker 1: where you do have that wide receiver is sliding in. 358 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:25,680 Speaker 1: But I can also see a situation with a team 359 00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 1: like Kansas City it likes to move up and trade around, 360 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 1: moving up to grab the specific wide receiver they want 361 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:34,000 Speaker 1: earlier in around and maybe forcing some other teams maybe 362 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,080 Speaker 1: to miss out on the wide receiver. So it's really 363 00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:38,280 Speaker 1: gonna be dependent on how some of these teams have 364 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:41,000 Speaker 1: grades at. But the over and under sitting at six 365 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 1: and a half is kind of a bet that I'm 366 00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:44,600 Speaker 1: staying away at, away from if you were able to 367 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:46,120 Speaker 1: get it at five and a half. I hope you 368 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 1: pounded it early on in draft season, but I think 369 00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 1: the market is very much correctly to self here. Yeah, 370 00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:52,480 Speaker 1: sim in the end of the first round is where 371 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:57,600 Speaker 1: this could get really really sticky, really tricky. Uh. Chris 372 00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:00,160 Speaker 1: Christian Kirk goes to Jacksonville, So maybe Arizona has a 373 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 1: need Amari Cooper to Cleveland. Dallas might figure, hey, why 374 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:05,840 Speaker 1: not add to our our bunch here for Dak Prescott 375 00:17:06,040 --> 00:17:08,640 Speaker 1: Scott hit on green Bay. I don't think you'll see 376 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:11,720 Speaker 1: anything from Tampa. I don't think Tennessee could always use 377 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:14,119 Speaker 1: another guy. And then you've got Detroit at thirty two. 378 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:18,520 Speaker 1: What's your read on this receiver prop as far as 379 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 1: number of receivers taken in the first round moving from 380 00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:24,080 Speaker 1: five and a half to six and a half, any interest? Yeah? 381 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 1: This this this, Uh, I've been burned by this. I 382 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 1: think what happened just two years ago. Te Higgs, guy 383 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 1: I loved, was the first pick in the second round. 384 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 1: I swore he was gonna trade, they were gonna trade 385 00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:35,440 Speaker 1: into the first round and grab him because I thought 386 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:38,480 Speaker 1: his upside was that great. They didn't, and that burned me. 387 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:40,560 Speaker 1: I think the over under in that year was six 388 00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:42,840 Speaker 1: and a half same thing and hit at six. So 389 00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:45,679 Speaker 1: to me, it sounds like Scott just said you kind 390 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:48,120 Speaker 1: of missed the best of the number. Stay away. There's 391 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:50,159 Speaker 1: there's plenty of opportunity in this draft. 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They've really been limited how much 428 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:55,639 Speaker 1: you can get down on these picks earlier in this season, 429 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:58,159 Speaker 1: So I would say the last week they've kind of 430 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:01,080 Speaker 1: picked it up, and we've seen the movement where might 431 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:03,560 Speaker 1: even Peter King and a couple other guys had Walkers 432 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:06,440 Speaker 1: number one pick when I made again, I don't watch 433 00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:08,440 Speaker 1: college football like these other pros. But when I listened 434 00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 1: to all these pros and read these guys mocks before 435 00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:13,439 Speaker 1: the combine, also their stuff. Walker was the end of 436 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 1: a first round kind of draft pick. And I've seen 437 00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:18,760 Speaker 1: the play. These guys keep talking about this play in 438 00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:21,000 Speaker 1: this Georgia game where everyone kind of stopped playing this 439 00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 1: play like they stopped playing hard, and he was running 440 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:24,960 Speaker 1: a guy down all the way down the field, this 441 00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:27,000 Speaker 1: big d lineman chasing the guy down fifth yards down 442 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:30,399 Speaker 1: the field. I love Walkers upside, I don't get what's happening. 443 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 1: Aiden to me, is just such a safe pick at 444 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:34,440 Speaker 1: that number one pick for the Jags. It made sense 445 00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:36,919 Speaker 1: for me that did either grab a d end or 446 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:38,840 Speaker 1: they would just played safe with Doug Peterson take an 447 00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:43,159 Speaker 1: offensive lineman, and the offseason they signed offensive linemen. It 448 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:45,440 Speaker 1: made sense. It would get a guy like Aiden, and 449 00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 1: I'm lost because I've invested in I've invested in Aiden, 450 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:52,160 Speaker 1: and now Walker. Someone knows something like again, the group 451 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:53,960 Speaker 1: I work for, we pay a lot of money for 452 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,919 Speaker 1: a mole for a lot of these teams. And the 453 00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 1: guy we had with the Jags, he's been saying the 454 00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:01,920 Speaker 1: same tune their own or wants Aiden. That's the owners 455 00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,879 Speaker 1: what he said for months now that he wants Aiden. 456 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:07,440 Speaker 1: It's the GM, the coach and a bunch of other people. 457 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:10,320 Speaker 1: They are like, well what about Walker? What about offensive linement? 458 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:12,919 Speaker 1: So you know, you keep seeing these headlines. They have 459 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 1: four guys right now they could take at the number 460 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 1: one pick that that's so that's crazy me to even 461 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:19,840 Speaker 1: think about, Like, really, were three days out and they 462 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:22,880 Speaker 1: are they don't know who they're gonna take. So I'm 463 00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:25,840 Speaker 1: gonna trust my mole, trust my source that it's Aiden. 464 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna keep betting thousands of dollars on it 465 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:30,720 Speaker 1: because I already have to invested in it. But every 466 00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:33,000 Speaker 1: time the odds dropped, like he's back to plus two 467 00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,960 Speaker 1: fifty now, Aiden, I gotta I gotta throw another grain 468 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:37,919 Speaker 1: on it. So it's it's it's gonna burn me. But 469 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:40,359 Speaker 1: this first pick, man, it's gonna be the most the 470 00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:42,280 Speaker 1: most drama for me, at least for this draft, just 471 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:44,359 Speaker 1: because it is so up in the air, and I 472 00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:46,159 Speaker 1: know a lot of pros they've heavily invested in this 473 00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:48,679 Speaker 1: Walker kid. So the reason why I bring that up 474 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:52,720 Speaker 1: because I figured you wouldn't mention Sauce Gardner, and there's 475 00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 1: you can make the case that he is the best 476 00:21:55,800 --> 00:22:00,199 Speaker 1: talent available in the top ten, top five possibly um. 477 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 1: And now a lot of you look at odds now 478 00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:06,359 Speaker 1: Scott he Gardners the favorite to be the first cornerback taken. 479 00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 1: But it brings up a more bigger picture point. You 480 00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 1: have a you have a thought on first round corners 481 00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:15,880 Speaker 1: the numbers said at four and a half. UM, it's 482 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:19,320 Speaker 1: a position I think as we talk about receiver teams, 483 00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:21,320 Speaker 1: you've got to defend the receivers as well. In the 484 00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:24,080 Speaker 1: National Football League with given how offenses have expanded in 485 00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:27,960 Speaker 1: offense is becoming such a focus a passing game offense. 486 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:31,160 Speaker 1: So what's your gauge on four and a half corners 487 00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:33,840 Speaker 1: and over or under Scott in the first round? Well, 488 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,440 Speaker 1: just the hot back on that first pick, real quick, Um, 489 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:39,639 Speaker 1: and talking about how the numbers have changed. If you 490 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:41,919 Speaker 1: want to go ahead and still put some money on 491 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,920 Speaker 1: Aiden Hutchinson to be the first overall pick. A lot 492 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:47,240 Speaker 1: of these sports books are actually allowing you to start 493 00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:49,960 Speaker 1: to parlay some of these first couple of picks, and 494 00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:53,080 Speaker 1: right now Aidan Hutchinson to go one and Trayvon Walker 495 00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:55,320 Speaker 1: to go to If you to put the both of 496 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:57,240 Speaker 1: those together as the first to pick, you can get 497 00:22:57,280 --> 00:22:59,879 Speaker 1: plus five hundred on that to go ahead and may 498 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: the head some of the other bets that you bet 499 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:05,119 Speaker 1: maybe last week whenever you've got positive numbers on Treyvon 500 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:07,080 Speaker 1: Walker to go ahead and be the first overall pick 501 00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:10,080 Speaker 1: to Jacksonville. So there's still some ways to play that, 502 00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:12,840 Speaker 1: but to go ahead and jump on the cornerback, I 503 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:14,800 Speaker 1: think when you start looking at it, and we talked 504 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:16,760 Speaker 1: a little bit more about how the landscapes kind of 505 00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,679 Speaker 1: change with some of these contracts. Right now that numbers 506 00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:21,480 Speaker 1: that over four and a half, and I think when 507 00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:24,119 Speaker 1: you start playing some of these numbers like this and 508 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:26,560 Speaker 1: start thinking of it more in a poker standpoint, I 509 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:28,760 Speaker 1: think you want out very similar to the way you 510 00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:30,560 Speaker 1: would play a hand of poker. And I think with 511 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:33,800 Speaker 1: that cornerback number, you have some outs in the form 512 00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 1: of you know of some of these guys, like you know, 513 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:39,639 Speaker 1: you start looking, You've got kier Ilam, You've got you know, 514 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:43,840 Speaker 1: Kyler Gordon, You've got Andrew Booth. Like those three guys 515 00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:47,359 Speaker 1: right there could all add on to to the top 516 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,800 Speaker 1: three cornerbacks that that are selected. So I think you 517 00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:52,440 Speaker 1: give yourself out with that over four and a half number. 518 00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:55,240 Speaker 1: I think the total number is gonna end up being five, 519 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,240 Speaker 1: but sitting there at what it's it's at plus one 520 00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,360 Speaker 1: twenty right now, that's about that. I like, I think 521 00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:01,960 Speaker 1: there's a good value there to be had, and I 522 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,000 Speaker 1: think you leave yourself with a lot of outs to 523 00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 1: possibly go ahead and hit that bet. Yeah, I've it's 524 00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:09,440 Speaker 1: not the first time I've heard that one. Uh, definitely 525 00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:11,560 Speaker 1: I share some similar interests just in the point I 526 00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:13,040 Speaker 1: made to set you up on that with just the 527 00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:15,199 Speaker 1: need of that position. It's you can never have too 528 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:16,840 Speaker 1: much help at that position. When you see how we 529 00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:19,919 Speaker 1: loaded the top of the league is at receiver Simon 530 00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:22,119 Speaker 1: carried away in on corners. The numbers at four and 531 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:23,879 Speaker 1: a half and if you take the under it's at 532 00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,439 Speaker 1: minus one fifty right there with Scott. It's it's just 533 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:28,359 Speaker 1: become a position of it gets paid a lot of 534 00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:30,199 Speaker 1: money now, so teams like a trade back in and 535 00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:32,480 Speaker 1: grab it. So to me that that's a great number 536 00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:35,400 Speaker 1: where we may have three cornerbacks taking the top fifteen 537 00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:38,399 Speaker 1: now we're just sitting on two for the next seventeen picks. 538 00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:40,040 Speaker 1: That that's a good feeling to have. So I like 539 00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:43,920 Speaker 1: that number a lot. Excellent Scott. Any other first round 540 00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:45,879 Speaker 1: bets that you want to get get into before we 541 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,360 Speaker 1: wrap here, Yeah, you know, I think when we start 542 00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:51,159 Speaker 1: looking at some of these and this isn't a number 543 00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:53,960 Speaker 1: that's gonna give you huge odds, but I think it's 544 00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:56,520 Speaker 1: a very safe bet. And I think when you start 545 00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:59,800 Speaker 1: looking at the over and under on safeties, um, you 546 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,320 Speaker 1: definitely have Kyle Hamilton's. But that number right there is 547 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,960 Speaker 1: that one and a half. So louis seen Daxton Hill 548 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:09,320 Speaker 1: out of Michigan. You know, at minus two eighty five, 549 00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:13,080 Speaker 1: you're not gonna like make a huge profit here, but 550 00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:15,760 Speaker 1: I think you you're safe to go ahead and look, 551 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,720 Speaker 1: go ahead and settle with a you know, bump on 552 00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,040 Speaker 1: your on your bankroll and stuff like that. I think 553 00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:24,560 Speaker 1: you have those two outs. Daxton Hill is very highly regarded. 554 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:27,520 Speaker 1: He's got an expected draft position bouncing around somewhere around 555 00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:31,439 Speaker 1: Pick Louis seems another guy that uh the scouts seemed 556 00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:33,560 Speaker 1: to love. I think he's a great fit for Detroit 557 00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,199 Speaker 1: there at UH at pick thirty two. I think Tampa 558 00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:39,199 Speaker 1: Bay is another out that you could possibly see. UM 559 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:42,080 Speaker 1: also Cincinnati. I think there's plenty of options at the 560 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:44,480 Speaker 1: back end right there too for another one of these 561 00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,240 Speaker 1: safeties to go, and that that safety beat at over 562 00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:50,120 Speaker 1: one and a half just seems like easy money for me. Um. 563 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:52,480 Speaker 1: Like I said, you're not gonna make a huge profit, 564 00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:54,440 Speaker 1: but I think it's safe to go ahead and take 565 00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,639 Speaker 1: the guaranteed money, which is what I would consider that 566 00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,800 Speaker 1: bet Um another couple of bets that I like. I 567 00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:02,480 Speaker 1: think we kind of hit on on some of those 568 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:05,760 Speaker 1: those cornerbacks. Kyler Gordon's plus one ten to be drafted 569 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:09,000 Speaker 1: in the top thirty two. His his expected draft position 570 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,760 Speaker 1: is right there around pick thirty three. Uh. Cayer Elam 571 00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:16,200 Speaker 1: out of Florida is that plus and uh Leuisine, who 572 00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:18,720 Speaker 1: had just hit on that safety's uh even money bat 573 00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:21,080 Speaker 1: at plus one hundred. So I think those are some good, 574 00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:23,000 Speaker 1: good bets that I would go ahead and sprinkle a 575 00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:25,199 Speaker 1: little bit of cash on to to go in in 576 00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:29,199 Speaker 1: the top thirty two. Um another long shot that I 577 00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:32,280 Speaker 1: really like to go ahead and look here. We talked 578 00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,920 Speaker 1: about Derek Stingley a little bit, getting getting connected to Houston. 579 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,760 Speaker 1: They're a lot um. You can go ahead and do 580 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:43,679 Speaker 1: an exact top three of Trayvon Walker, Aiden Hutchinson and 581 00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:46,600 Speaker 1: Derek Stingley at plus five fifties. If you don't like 582 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:48,919 Speaker 1: Stingley to be that pick there the first cornerback off 583 00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:50,920 Speaker 1: the board to Houston, you can go ahead and swap 584 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,040 Speaker 1: it out with AMR. Gardner for plus six hundred. I 585 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,240 Speaker 1: think both of those bets right there offer some good 586 00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:57,440 Speaker 1: value if you want to go ahead and swing that way. 587 00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:00,960 Speaker 1: We think so I when you're not in your head 588 00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:03,439 Speaker 1: at that one, Yeah, I like that one. I like 589 00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:06,960 Speaker 1: again Kyle Hamilton's he's a coworker of ours. Okay, he's 590 00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:09,920 Speaker 1: from the volume, no disrespect, but I like his outside 591 00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:12,280 Speaker 1: the top ten value right now. I could see him 592 00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,000 Speaker 1: go and pick eleven, pick twelve. Nothing against him. It's 593 00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,399 Speaker 1: one of those where I feel like these guys are 594 00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,360 Speaker 1: trying to get a little smarter. They're trying to really 595 00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:21,480 Speaker 1: trust the nerds, which the nerds are gonna tell them. 596 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:24,679 Speaker 1: Safety is an important position, for sure, It's just not 597 00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,200 Speaker 1: as important as a d lineman, his offensive linements, a 598 00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:30,280 Speaker 1: wide receivers, all these other key positions, a quarterback. So, 599 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:34,040 Speaker 1: I mean, again, the kid talent is insane. He is 600 00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:36,240 Speaker 1: going to be a studden o league. It's kind of 601 00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,199 Speaker 1: those things where, yeah, people are gonna be like, well, 602 00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 1: did you see his forty time? Kyle is football fast, 603 00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:43,480 Speaker 1: Like if you watch his game tape, you never really 604 00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:45,360 Speaker 1: thought to yourself, this kid is not that quick. But 605 00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,959 Speaker 1: I'm actually anxious here what Scott's view is of this 606 00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:51,240 Speaker 1: year's draft? You think because of next year's draft with 607 00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:54,200 Speaker 1: the quarterbacks, we do see these quarterbacks falling a little bit, 608 00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,280 Speaker 1: because we've already seen projectives for next year. It's they're 609 00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:00,399 Speaker 1: literally projecting three quarterbacks go one, two, and three. Do 610 00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:02,280 Speaker 1: you see that? Do you actually really believe that hype 611 00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:04,320 Speaker 1: about these quarterbacks dropping it picked twenty? Do you is 612 00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:07,360 Speaker 1: that something real? Because again I have sources are like that. 613 00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:09,119 Speaker 1: It feels like this year more than any I'm not 614 00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:11,080 Speaker 1: gonna know a lot until the morning of the draft, 615 00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:12,560 Speaker 1: Like that's when we see all the crazy line moment. 616 00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:14,439 Speaker 1: Like last year we saw the trail Lance line movement. 617 00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:16,000 Speaker 1: It feels the same with this year, like all of 618 00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:18,440 Speaker 1: a sudden, I'm gonna wake up and see the quarterbacks 619 00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:20,479 Speaker 1: dropping to pick twenty or something crazy like that. Are 620 00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:23,280 Speaker 1: you here? And stuff like that to Scott, Yeah, that's 621 00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:25,640 Speaker 1: what I'm hearing. And uh, you know, good friend former 622 00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:29,440 Speaker 1: Action Network. You know remember Matthew Freedman, He actually went 623 00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:32,520 Speaker 1: back and and did a study and and basically looked 624 00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:34,439 Speaker 1: over the last in and fifteen years, and when a 625 00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:38,040 Speaker 1: quarterback wasn't selected in the top five, that generally gave 626 00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:40,040 Speaker 1: you a signal that the gms and the scouts are 627 00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:42,480 Speaker 1: very down on the quarterback class. And that's when those 628 00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:45,120 Speaker 1: quarterbacks started to slide. And I think you actually have 629 00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:46,959 Speaker 1: the number of two and a half, But like when 630 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:49,440 Speaker 1: you start looking at it with those numbers, when quarterbacks 631 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,240 Speaker 1: weren't drafted in the top five, generally only like two 632 00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:54,800 Speaker 1: quarterbacks went in the first round. I just don't think 633 00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:58,120 Speaker 1: all of these quarterbacks they that are in this draft 634 00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:01,600 Speaker 1: as prospects. They have their war you know, they all 635 00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:04,200 Speaker 1: have their their different issues, especially within the leak Wills, 636 00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:06,560 Speaker 1: who may have the top upside, but you look at 637 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,280 Speaker 1: what he ran there in Liberty and the level of 638 00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:12,000 Speaker 1: competition that he played at. I think it's gonna take 639 00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:13,880 Speaker 1: a year or two for him to to go ahead. 640 00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,120 Speaker 1: It's not to say that any of these guys can't, 641 00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:18,640 Speaker 1: you know, can't come out and produce and prove us wrong. 642 00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:22,840 Speaker 1: But from the prospect evalue wasting standpoint, there's just not 643 00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:25,479 Speaker 1: a clean one there for this draft class. Yeah, and 644 00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:28,480 Speaker 1: I mean opponent on that. It's like, um, things are 645 00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:30,800 Speaker 1: always evolved the NFL. Like I'll never forget the year 646 00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:33,400 Speaker 1: the Eagles went and traded up to get Wentz. Golf 647 00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:35,719 Speaker 1: was the number one pick. How he said something I'll 648 00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:37,320 Speaker 1: ever forget, which is how you just know these guys 649 00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:39,120 Speaker 1: are so full of ship. He said, we trade up 650 00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:41,720 Speaker 1: to get Wentz because the upcoming draft classes of quarterbacks 651 00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,160 Speaker 1: are no good. The following year was Mahomes and Watson. 652 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:46,360 Speaker 1: So it's one of those where these gms are gonna 653 00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:48,480 Speaker 1: say a lot of bs and just talk whatever reason, 654 00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:51,240 Speaker 1: but it is it is gonna be interesting where it's 655 00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,320 Speaker 1: just so much smoke. This year again, Peter King put 656 00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:56,719 Speaker 1: out a mock draft Monday morning, I do believe that's 657 00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:59,760 Speaker 1: why Walker's odd shifted so highly, because he literally can 658 00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:01,800 Speaker 1: put you and check the draft kings timing of it 659 00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:03,680 Speaker 1: he put his article. I believe this guy put it 660 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:06,400 Speaker 1: out a like midnight or eleven PM. That's when you started. 661 00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:08,960 Speaker 1: The odds for Walker for number one pick really go 662 00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:12,480 Speaker 1: from believe this plus two fifty to minus one fifty 663 00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:16,080 Speaker 1: between twelve pm East Coast time and four am East 664 00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:19,200 Speaker 1: Coast time. So it is really really crazy. All the 665 00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:22,080 Speaker 1: drama rumors we're gonna hear, and when you wake up 666 00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,719 Speaker 1: Thursday morning, check the odds if you've been betting these 667 00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:28,240 Speaker 1: draft odds, because that movement you see draft morning, that's 668 00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:29,960 Speaker 1: as real as it's gonna get. Like. That's when the 669 00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:33,760 Speaker 1: pros really strike and the information is really good. So again, 670 00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:35,880 Speaker 1: make these bets, but make sure, like Scott talked about, 671 00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:37,680 Speaker 1: you're kind of hedging and taking care of your position, 672 00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:39,640 Speaker 1: because you know what't Bean calling these kind of things. 673 00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:41,000 Speaker 1: The draft is meant to be fun and be able 674 00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:42,719 Speaker 1: to make some good money off taking a batage of 675 00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:45,160 Speaker 1: some spots. Don't go all in on the first pick, 676 00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:47,080 Speaker 1: or don't go all in on us saying bet the 677 00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:49,240 Speaker 1: over of the cornerbacks. You kind of want to spread 678 00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:51,239 Speaker 1: these things out just because again, the draft is a 679 00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:54,360 Speaker 1: long first day, and just the warning just to to 680 00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:57,360 Speaker 1: some of the listeners right now. The last few years, 681 00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,760 Speaker 1: a lot of these sports books have been getting burned, 682 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:02,160 Speaker 1: see with a lot of these prop shows popping up 683 00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,360 Speaker 1: and a lot of people getting sharper and some of 684 00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:07,040 Speaker 1: these sharp vettors betting big early in the morning. So 685 00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:09,280 Speaker 1: be on the lookout because some of these sports books 686 00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:11,840 Speaker 1: are gonna start locking these bets out and taking a 687 00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:14,560 Speaker 1: lot of these bets off their sites. So I wouldn't 688 00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:16,440 Speaker 1: expect to be able to wait in an hour or 689 00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:18,200 Speaker 1: two before the draft hits and be able to go 690 00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:19,840 Speaker 1: pound some of these numbers. I think some of these 691 00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:22,640 Speaker 1: sports books are just gonna flat out shut down the numbers, 692 00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:25,719 Speaker 1: and that's not allowed by that biggest being that close. 693 00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:28,320 Speaker 1: Vegas does not take action on the draft day. So 694 00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:30,360 Speaker 1: New Jerseys you can get. You can get action down 695 00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:32,960 Speaker 1: New York all these other states. But like Scott said, 696 00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:35,920 Speaker 1: if you if you're making bets afternoon on Draft day, 697 00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:38,000 Speaker 1: your options are gonna be very slim. That are gonna 698 00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:39,960 Speaker 1: start taking these numbers down. And if you're in Vegas, 699 00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:42,880 Speaker 1: make sure you get all your bets and Wednesday night beforehand, 700 00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:46,240 Speaker 1: they're taking all lines down on Thursday. I was literally 701 00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:48,320 Speaker 1: gonna ask both of you your biggest piece of advice 702 00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:51,200 Speaker 1: when you bet the draft, and you both basically gave 703 00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:55,000 Speaker 1: warnings and caution folks, and you reminded people if you 704 00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:56,600 Speaker 1: do want to do it, you cannot wait too long. 705 00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:59,480 Speaker 1: And I guess the positive this year compared to last year. 706 00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:03,400 Speaker 1: You're not gonna get some blockbuster for a tree Lance, right, 707 00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:06,040 Speaker 1: You're gonna have an idea. But but with the the 708 00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:08,480 Speaker 1: downfall would will be as as Simon said, You're gonna 709 00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:12,600 Speaker 1: get uh, You're gonna get some um, some understanding based 710 00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:16,120 Speaker 1: on reporting what team and what player might fit in 711 00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:18,800 Speaker 1: terms of interest and what they plan on doing with 712 00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:21,640 Speaker 1: X pick in terms of the pick number odds that 713 00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:23,680 Speaker 1: are up at a variety of books. I'm open for 714 00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:26,200 Speaker 1: a shock the world Lions take Molika pick two because 715 00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:28,200 Speaker 1: that would honestly throw a wrench in everything, and that 716 00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,640 Speaker 1: would be epic. But that's for chaos that is gonna 717 00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:34,600 Speaker 1: do it for us everybody. Scott Smith does a great 718 00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:38,360 Speaker 1: job covering the NFL draft. Action Network contributor NFL Mock 719 00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:40,520 Speaker 1: Draft Maven Scott, thanks a lot of the time, man, 720 00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:43,280 Speaker 1: great stuff, appreciate it. Thank you alright. This has been 721 00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:46,040 Speaker 1: the favorites from the Volume podcast Network. Thanks so much 722 00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:48,880 Speaker 1: for listening. Everybody. Be sure to join Chat and Simon 723 00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:52,080 Speaker 1: for their final NFL Draft betting episode which is out 724 00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:56,440 Speaker 1: early early Thursday morning, and Simon urged you be sure 725 00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:58,520 Speaker 1: to listen because stuff will be taken down and you 726 00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:00,360 Speaker 1: won't be able to get actions, so be sure to 727 00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:02,600 Speaker 1: set your alarm, get up and tune in. So until 728 00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:05,760 Speaker 1: next time for Scott Smith, Simon Hunter your host today 729 00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:09,280 Speaker 1: Brendan glass Sheen filling in for Chad. All said and done, 730 00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:12,760 Speaker 1: Chad loves you, y