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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros.

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Speaker 2: It's time to place your bets. It is me Joey

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Speaker 2: Pa Joe Pizzapia, and today we got a good one

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Speaker 2: for you. My buddy Rich Reebar from Sharp Football Analysis

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Speaker 2: is joining us. My draft partner from a few weeks back.

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Speaker 2: He was drafting at the one spot. I was at

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Speaker 2: the two at Flex in New York. It was fun

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Speaker 2: to spend some time together and I said, Rich, I

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Speaker 2: want to talk more betting with you, not just fantasy football.

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Speaker 2: So he's here today to help us break down some

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Speaker 2: of the pretenders. In case you missed it, last week,

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Speaker 2: our boy Pat fitz Morris was breaking down the contenders,

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Speaker 2: the teams that we think have a lot of expectations

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty three. But there are some teams also

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Speaker 2: that are pretending to have expectations. And these are the

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Speaker 2: best because Rich, what you get with these teams are

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Speaker 2: some that are for real and some that are fugazy.

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Speaker 2: And I think we're gonna have to figure that out now.

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Speaker 2: Fugze is a Brooklyn word, so I'm going to bring

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Speaker 2: that out every now and then. But Rich, to me,

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Speaker 2: this is where you can make a lot of money.

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Speaker 2: In the marketplace, and I can't think of anybody better

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Speaker 2: to break it down. But what is the danger of

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Speaker 2: some of these teams too that look good on paper

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Speaker 2: but can't put it all together once the season starts.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's interesting when I think about it

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Speaker 1: from like a betting stance. You know, I'm someone that's

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Speaker 1: just had this is my first year. I can actually

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Speaker 1: bet these futures in Ohio, so I have them legal.

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Speaker 1: So I've been excited. I've been firing stuff all off season.

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Speaker 1: It's fun. But like you know, I'm someone that inherently

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Speaker 1: is more like, you know, a Joey Kinnish Rounders type

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Speaker 1: of better Anyways, I'm looking for like I'm looking for

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Speaker 1: soft lines. I'm looking for ROI right, That's kind of

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Speaker 1: how I play, and that's how I play fantasy football

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Speaker 1: a bit too. So these teams that are like kind

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Speaker 1: of in like purgatory. Like I'm glad that we're gonna

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Speaker 1: be talking through some of these because a lot of

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Speaker 1: some of these are lines that I haven't touched because

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Speaker 1: of them kind of being kind of middling, right, not

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Speaker 1: really representing a lot of value. Although some of these

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Speaker 1: I have bet early on, Like I know you have

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Speaker 1: the Atlanta Falcons on here. There's a reason why that

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Speaker 1: has gone up. I'd like to think it was because

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Speaker 1: I was one of the people betting it, but a

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Speaker 1: lot of other people with real, real money have been

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Speaker 1: betting that as well.

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Speaker 2: I bet a month and a half ago, and then

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Speaker 2: Chris Raybond came on the show and he was like,

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Speaker 2: I'm picking the Falcons, and I was.

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Speaker 1: Like, oh boy.

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Speaker 2: And when all these smart people and then I hear

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Speaker 2: it come out of your mouth, too rich, It just

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Speaker 2: makes me feel better and better every time a person

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Speaker 2: that I have great respect for and great intelligence in

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Speaker 2: the industry keep saying the same thing. It makes me

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Speaker 2: feel better about my bets and I want people to

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Speaker 2: get in to make money with us, like that's what

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Speaker 2: we're trying to do here. But you're right, the numbers

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Speaker 2: are starting to move too. We gotta be careful and

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Speaker 2: we're gonna break them all down for you right here.

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Speaker 2: And again, don't forget to stay on top of all

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Speaker 2: that line movement. Make sure you download the Betting pros

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Speaker 2: app It's free. Of course, you can go premium and

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Speaker 2: if you want a chance to go premium and get

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Speaker 2: the best tools in the planet. Just drop a comment below,

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Speaker 2: subscribe to our YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash betting Pros.

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Speaker 2: That's how you do it, and then you'll get access

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Speaker 2: to the top rated player props. You get the custom

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Speaker 2: analysis of your betting performance. Don't forget good follow people

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Speaker 2: on here too. You can follow me at Betting Pros

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Speaker 2: dot com slash Joe. And of course we're giving away

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Speaker 2: that premium, so if you don't want to wait for

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Speaker 2: the premium by subscribing to YouTube and dropping the comment below,

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Speaker 2: you can go straight for it, go right to the

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Speaker 2: or open it and go get the premium at Bettingpros

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Speaker 2: dot com slash Upgrade and start betting smarter and not harder.

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Speaker 2: As always, we're gonna start here with the win totals.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna talk a little division odds too, which is

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Speaker 2: a little trickier for some of these pretending teams. This

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Speaker 2: is a little harder sell and then a little to

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Speaker 2: make the playoffs and maybe some fun too in the

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Speaker 2: future of the conferences in the Super Bowl. But let's

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Speaker 2: run through these win totals. Let's start with the falcons

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Speaker 2: because we teased it. Yeah, seven and a half is gone.

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Speaker 2: It's no longer there, Joey Futures love the seven and

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Speaker 2: a half Joey Futures betting, and I will stop talking

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Speaker 2: about myself on the third person here. But we have

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Speaker 2: eight and a half as the number now that we're

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Speaker 2: dealing with the over on betting pros right now Rich

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Speaker 2: is minus one twenty one the under at plus one

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Speaker 2: twenty five. So for those people who weren't buying the Falcons,

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Speaker 2: this is a perfect time to throw some shade against them.

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Speaker 2: But I guess here's the question. I know the quarterback

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Speaker 2: situation is uncertain. I know the Saints had a pretty

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Speaker 2: good showing in their first little output there this weekend

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Speaker 2: where Derek Carr was playing and Michael Thomas was actually

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Speaker 2: on the field, so is Alvin Kamaras. So interesting things

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Speaker 2: going on, But what do you think of the Falcons

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Speaker 2: in this number? Where are you standing with it now

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Speaker 2: that it's eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I was someone that already has it too,

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Speaker 1: so you know, I don't I'm not probably gonna circle

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Speaker 1: back and take it at eight and a half, but

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Speaker 1: I don't think that it's completely out. I think you

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Speaker 1: probably are looking at if you're looking at Falcons, futures,

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Speaker 1: you probably are looking more at like division wins, you know,

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Speaker 1: make the playoffs, stuff like that. It's going to represent

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Speaker 1: a lot more bang for your buck right now. But

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Speaker 1: I still do think nine wins as totally possible. They

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Speaker 1: have our second easiest schedule. It's funny is that the

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Speaker 1: Saints have our easiest schedule projected this season, and the

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Speaker 1: Saints have a little bit more of a distance between

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Speaker 1: the Falcons because they also have like better rest edge

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Speaker 1: than the Falcons. The Falcons actually have the fourth worst

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Speaker 1: rest edge even with them having a really easy schedule,

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Speaker 1: they have one of the worst rest edges in the league.

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Speaker 1: They actually don't they have three games with the road disadvantage,

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Speaker 1: which which isn't great. And then you talk about the

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Speaker 1: quarterback play. The Falcons also are one of these teams

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Speaker 1: too that they inherently play a style of football that

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Speaker 1: they're going to just play a lot of close games too,

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Speaker 1: So you might be at the risk of like a

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Speaker 1: lot of variants, right like any team that wants to

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Speaker 1: run the football, not turn the ball over and play

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Speaker 1: these close games. Can remember even last year they played

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Speaker 1: thirteen one score games, one of the highest in the league.

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Speaker 1: So you just have variants swing on the wrong direction,

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Speaker 1: Like you could run south right and this could be

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Speaker 1: a six win team. This could be a seven win

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Speaker 1: team and you don't get there. So I do think

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Speaker 1: that the actual value in terms of bank for your

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Speaker 1: buck is probably more looking at like division in them

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Speaker 1: to make the playoffs in the NFC more so than

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Speaker 1: this where it is right now.

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Speaker 2: I like that pivot. And whenever you have teams, especially

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Speaker 2: in divisions that are a little soft, I mean that's

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Speaker 2: a better bet sometimes because we saw last year, right,

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Speaker 2: what did nine wins won this division? Anyway? Right? I

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Speaker 2: believe if memory serves something horrible and horrific like that,

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Speaker 2: So always keep that in mind. There's different ways to

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Speaker 2: get in on teams if you like them, especially if

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Speaker 2: the market is moved. The Cleveland Browns, this is a

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Speaker 2: leap of faith here. Everybody has to take rich because

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Speaker 2: Deshaun Watson did not look good last year. But we

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Speaker 2: have plenty of tape of Deshaun Watson looking like a

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Speaker 2: top five quarterback in the league. They went out there

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Speaker 2: and they made some additions to this roster. They acquired

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Speaker 2: Elijah Moore. Right, So here we are the Cleveland Browns

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Speaker 2: are sitting at nine and a half, the overs at

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Speaker 2: plus one ten, the under is at minus one thirty.

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Speaker 2: So it is already kind of telling you that they

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Speaker 2: think the Cleveland Browns are just not something Vegas is

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Speaker 2: buying too much right now necessarily or actually you know that.

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Speaker 2: I think the biggest question maybe in the NFL this

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Speaker 2: season is what Deshaun Watson are we going to get? So,

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Speaker 2: in your opinion, what Deshaun Watson are we going to get?

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Speaker 2: And do you think that feeling is investible yet?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think there's a lot of value in

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Speaker 1: this line, you know, if you're over it. I am

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Speaker 1: more on the positive end, just because we haven't really

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Speaker 1: seen a lot of players that were as good as

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Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson was over like the opening four years of

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Speaker 1: his career. Just like be terrible. I've brought up a

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Speaker 1: few times here like yeah, kind of go back to

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Speaker 1: Dante Culpepper's like the last guy that was like good

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Speaker 1: and then just like stop being good at quarterbacks that.

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Speaker 2: Was in your league, right, Yeah, yeah.

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Speaker 1: He was older, he had he did have an ACL

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Speaker 1: and Watson at ACL two and then you know, Randy

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Speaker 1: Moss left the team. So it's like we have to

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Speaker 1: at least keep like some benefit of the doubt that

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Speaker 1: maybe Deshaun Watson is still just like we give him

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a pass for the not basically

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Speaker 1: playing football in one and a half years. The Browns

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Speaker 1: played like two awful weather games when he came back.

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Speaker 1: The offensive line was kind of in flux. The Browns

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Speaker 1: were two and six and one score games last year, Like,

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Speaker 1: that's probably gonna flip. They had the second worst fumble

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Speaker 1: luck in the league. They were minus four point six

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Speaker 1: fumbles recoverable expectation. They were seventh hourst and field goal

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Speaker 1: luck to like, those are all things that are probably

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Speaker 1: gonna regress positively. They also are a team that has

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Speaker 1: like a big rest advantage this year. They don't play

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Speaker 1: any teams coming off of a buye. They don't play

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Speaker 1: any teams coming off of a Thursday game, which helps them.

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Speaker 1: They do have a really really tough opening schedule before

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Speaker 1: their by and they're also a team that is an

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Speaker 1: early which also is a love say. I just don't

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Speaker 1: see a lot of value in this line and more

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Speaker 1: optimistic on the Browns if you like some of their

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Speaker 1: longer stuff, like maybe their AFC odds or Super Bowl odds.

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Speaker 1: But this is a brutal division, right it is the

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Speaker 1: AFC North and the AFC East. Like these teams are

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Speaker 1: gonna beat the hell out of each other.

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Speaker 2: They are, and you also have good coaching too with

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Speaker 2: Mike Tomlin, who you know, we can talk about how

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh kind of remade itself a little bit year over year,

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Speaker 2: and we know what Joe Burrow and the Bengals are

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Speaker 2: gonna be, and you know, or at least we have

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Speaker 2: an expectation as long as the health is there. And

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Speaker 2: the Ravens seem like a team that's refocused and ready

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Speaker 2: to go, and we talked a lot about them. If

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Speaker 2: you want to get some of those again, some takes

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Speaker 2: on that fits and I broke them down. You can

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Speaker 2: go back and listen or watch on the YouTube channel

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Speaker 2: to the Contenders version of this show. But let's stick

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Speaker 2: with more pretenders here, the Green Bay Packers. I know,

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Speaker 2: there's kind of like this renewed optimism here of Jordan Love.

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Speaker 2: Everything's gonna be great. You know what. Maybe we're gonna

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Speaker 2: be the plucky team. Maybe we're gonna be the team

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Speaker 2: that's a little bit better than people think we are.

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Speaker 2: The number is seven and a half for them, the

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Speaker 2: over at minus one fifteen, the under at plus one

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Speaker 2: point twenty. So once again the faith not really with

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Speaker 2: necessarily the Jordan Love situation there. But you know, there

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Speaker 2: was kind of this dark cloud in this weird thing

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Speaker 2: kind of hanging over with the Green Bay Packers and

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Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers, and it just came to hang over this

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Speaker 2: this organization. Do you think that with him gone, that

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Speaker 2: there's this kind of renewed optimism around camp, around everybody

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Speaker 2: that hey, you know what, fresh start, let's go and

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Speaker 2: let's roll. Or do you think it's kind of a

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Speaker 2: false narrative because when you lose a Hall of Fame quarterback,

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Speaker 2: all of a sudden, you're gonna downgrade and wins.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I've actually been in on the Packers a lot

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Speaker 1: like people were in on the Falcons two degree, I

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Speaker 1: think because when you look at this division, they probably

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Speaker 1: still have the best like one through fifty three roster,

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Speaker 1: right right, that the concerns come with the transition of quarterback.

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Speaker 1: But I mean, also, Jordan Love's not a rookie, like

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Speaker 1: he's been with the organization for two years. I don't

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Speaker 1: know if we can really quantify like what that means,

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Speaker 1: but he does have some experience. He did look a

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Speaker 1: lot better, and just he played a very small sample

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Speaker 1: last year, so I want to go crazy with that,

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Speaker 1: but he did look a lot better his second year

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Speaker 1: than he did when we saw him in a small

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Speaker 1: sample as a rookie. And I just think when you

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Speaker 1: look at their roster, they have every offensive lineman that

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Speaker 1: took a snap for them coming back this year. We

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Speaker 1: know that they can they can have a good run

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Speaker 1: game and play ball control because that's what Lafleur has done. Anyways,

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Speaker 1: they've got the probably the best defense in the division.

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Speaker 1: Actually I would say it's not even close. They do

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Speaker 1: have the best defense in that division. They also don't

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Speaker 1: play They're opening five games, they don't play a single

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Speaker 1: team that's in the top eight and Super Bowl odds,

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Speaker 1: they have our easiest ranked pass rushing schedule, so they're

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Speaker 1: going to face like the softest amount of projected teams

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Speaker 1: that rush the passer, which I think helps them as well.

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Speaker 1: I've already bet them their win total and their kind

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Speaker 1: of division odd stuff. Obviously, I still think like the

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Speaker 1: Lions win, but I think the Lions actually represent like

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Speaker 1: one of the worst like divisional values and maybe are

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Speaker 1: a little bit overvalued by the public. But I've been

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Speaker 1: I've been in on the Packers. I think there are

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Speaker 1: a lot better like real life team then they're getting

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Speaker 1: credit for.

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Speaker 2: I think you wait, if you like the Lions and

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Speaker 2: you let them get their doors blown off by KC

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Speaker 2: in week one, and then you go bet the Lions,

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Speaker 2: I think that's what really. Just just be a little

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Speaker 2: bit more patient, wait that one out, because I think

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Speaker 2: people go, oh, wait a minute, maybe the Lions aren't

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Speaker 2: as good as we thought they are, and they very

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Speaker 2: well might be. But teams playing with expectations far better

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Speaker 2: than playing the plucky underdog. It's a different situation there.

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Speaker 2: It's interesting too, because last year Green Bay was actually

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Speaker 2: three and three in this division and they still they

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Speaker 2: won eight games. But you could write a script here

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Speaker 2: where maybe they go four and two in this division

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Speaker 2: here potentially, so people forget that they really kind of

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Speaker 2: struggled even with Aaron Rodgers to you know, outside of

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Speaker 2: those those gimme games against the Bears, we go to

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Speaker 2: lock in those two wins. Not so much the case

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Speaker 2: last year in terms of dominating that division.

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Speaker 1: Let's do another one here.

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Speaker 2: The Los Angeles Chargers. Ah, the annual charger buzz right, Rich,

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Speaker 2: We've seen this a million times, and the Chargers always

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Speaker 2: kind of fall short. They always find a way to charger.

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Speaker 2: The number here is pretty high. It's nine and a half,

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Speaker 2: the over at minus one fifteen, the under at nine

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Speaker 2: and a half at plus one twenty. So look, the

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Speaker 2: Chargers went in the draft. They got Quentin Johnson to

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Speaker 2: kind of give them a little insurance. You saw Palmer

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Speaker 2: play pretty well, but the big story last year was

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Speaker 2: just not having those number one and number two wide

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Speaker 2: receivers healthy for any extended period of time together. Now

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Speaker 2: you give yourself more insurance. You can hope for better health.

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Speaker 2: But how do you see the Chargers and this nine

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Speaker 2: and a half right now? In a division again that's

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Speaker 2: kind of in flux and changing. You have some change

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Speaker 2: with the Raiders obviously, and you know you're looking around

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Speaker 2: here and you have a Charger team that you know

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Speaker 2: may or may not be ready to compete with the

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Speaker 2: big boys in the AFC. How do you see this

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Speaker 2: nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I still think the Chargers are probably being undervalued

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Speaker 1: because of that, right A little bit like people want

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Speaker 1: to say, same old Chargers. I mean, this team won

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Speaker 1: ten games last year in a season in which Justin

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Speaker 1: Herbert you know, had a chest fracture, you know, early

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Speaker 1: in the season, then had a torn labrum. They played

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Speaker 1: twenty total offensive snaps last year with Mike Williams, Keenan Alan,

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Speaker 1: Corey Lindsley, and Rashaun Slater on the field, and they

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Speaker 1: still won ten games, right Like, I feel like that,

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Speaker 1: you know, everyone just like same old Chargers. Something's gonna

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Speaker 1: happen to them. But I mean, this is still a

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Speaker 1: team I believe that has like true upside and maybe

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Speaker 1: you know, potential to win the AFC upside. You know,

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Speaker 1: if this is a team that totally you could say

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Speaker 1: Justin Herbert goes down a three game heater in the

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Speaker 1: playoffs and they can win it if you get like

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Speaker 1: a right draw, right like the kind of like the

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Speaker 1: Bengals got a couple of years ago, depending what you

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Speaker 1: have to go through because in AFC, like we all know,

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Speaker 1: like these quarterbacks are all have to beat each other,

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Speaker 1: like you're gonna have to go through someone in AFC.

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Speaker 1: So I still think the Chargers are one of the

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Speaker 1: better teams. I think that obviously, you know, the stigma

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Speaker 1: has to eventually break right, like it has to. There's

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Speaker 1: just no way. Like a team is the thing.

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Speaker 2: I think Herbert's the guy to do it too, Like

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Speaker 2: I do agree that over time it's going to be

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Speaker 2: the guy. I don't know if it's this incarnation. I

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Speaker 2: think a lot of it has to do Rich too.

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Speaker 2: Which you think of the Broncos, Like do you think

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Speaker 2: Sean Payton can pull this team up by the haunches

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Speaker 2: and make them competitive again? Because if you do, I

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Speaker 2: think that puts this number in a little bit of concern.

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Speaker 2: That's nine and a half. I think I would be

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Speaker 2: on the under if you think that. But what do

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Speaker 2: you think of the Broncos in that sense?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm out on the Broncos, So I think, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's either too far, you got to really but it's

337
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Speaker 1: gonna take a couple of years to pull him out

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Speaker 1: of the muck, is what you will. My problem with

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Speaker 1: the Broncos is like, who's going to get through to

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson? Right? Because the defensive meta in the NFL

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Speaker 1: has changed, right, You're seeing we're seeing a lot less blitzing,

342
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Speaker 1: We're seeing a lot more coverage, a lot more nickel

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Speaker 1: dime on the field. NFL teams want you to have

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Speaker 1: eight plus play drives right, matriculate down the field. We

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Speaker 1: want you to have to earn your touchdowns and Russ

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Speaker 1: every offense that Russell Wilson has been in it. You know,

347
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Speaker 1: we keep blaming all the coordinators, right, let Russ cook,

348
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Speaker 1: but the offenses all end up looking the same because

349
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Speaker 1: of the style of Russell Wilson plays like he's a

350
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Speaker 1: big game hunter. He wants to throw outside the numbers,

351
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Speaker 1: he wants to throw vertical. He doesn't want he doesn't

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Speaker 1: want to take these free these free passes, right, he

353
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Speaker 1: doesn't want to throw the four yard check down. And

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Speaker 1: in the way defenses are playing NFL, it's kind of

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Speaker 1: fall He's falling into their hands. I mean, like I said,

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Speaker 1: I go back to the twenty twenty one sample when

357
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Speaker 1: he missed that section of the Seahawks season, and how

358
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Speaker 1: different the Seahawks looked under Geno Smith, and it's like,

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Speaker 1: you know, I wish I would have factored that more

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Speaker 1: into not only d K packcaff and Tyler Lockett, that

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Speaker 1: that following I think we all.

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Speaker 2: Could say that rich to be fair, we all wish

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Speaker 2: people believed a little more in Gino. I know I didn't.

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Speaker 2: I thought it would be fun, but I really wasn't

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Speaker 2: buying it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, But also what it meant for Russ going to Denver? Right,

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Speaker 1: Like we thought it would just be like the same

368
00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:21,240
Speaker 1: same thing. Let Russ cook, Russ's gonna finally cook and

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Speaker 1: all these things. And you know, obviously Daniel Hackett's gonna

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Speaker 1: fall on this sore. And I don't want to defend

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Speaker 1: the Daniel Hackett either and give him a Hall pass.

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Speaker 1: But Ross has to change his game. And is Sean

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Speaker 1: Payton going to be the guy to do this? Like

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Speaker 1: you know we would hope so right, if anyone.

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Speaker 2: Can do it, Shawn can? I mean sewn Shawn's track

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Speaker 2: record going back, you know, as a quarterback coach. I mean,

377
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Speaker 2: the guy's been in the league for so many years,

378
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Speaker 2: He's worked with so many of the best of the best,

379
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Speaker 2: and his track record, you know, speaks for itself there now. Granted,

380
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Speaker 2: you know, as a head coach, when you have Drew Brees,

381
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Speaker 2: it makes your life a little easier, I think. But

382
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Speaker 2: you know, people forget Drew Brees was kind of a

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Speaker 2: castaway before he ended up in New Orleans. So a

384
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Speaker 2: lot of people weren't buying into him necessarily, So, uh,

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Speaker 2: it's gonna be fascinating to watch a couple more that

386
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Speaker 2: we have here, my Ammi Dolphins and the New York Jets.

387
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Speaker 2: I want to take these as a duo here because

388
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Speaker 2: it all depends on what you think of the Bills

389
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Speaker 2: and if you think that the Dolphins and Jets are

390
00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:10,280
Speaker 2: contenders or pretenders at this point. But I think you

391
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Speaker 2: have to still call them pretenders until they otherwise show themselves.

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Speaker 2: The Dolphins and the Jets are both at nine and

393
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Speaker 2: a half kind of close here, So the Dolphins at

394
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Speaker 2: the over at plus one oh five, the under minus

395
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Speaker 2: one oh five, same for the Jets here nine and

396
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Speaker 2: a half, the over at minus one fifteen, the under

397
00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:29,640
Speaker 2: at plus one oh five. They're getting plus money on

398
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Speaker 2: the Jets to go over. I am not buying into

399
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Speaker 2: You know, this is not a hard knocks thing for me.

400
00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:37,120
Speaker 2: You know, this is not an Aaron Rodgers like. I

401
00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:38,920
Speaker 2: think Aaron Rodgers is doing a really good job of

402
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Speaker 2: reimagining his image on the way out of football so

403
00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:45,400
Speaker 2: he can spin it off for the rest of his life. However,

404
00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:49,160
Speaker 2: I keep buying the Jets defense. Rich defense is really

405
00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:52,440
Speaker 2: good I think they've got a good situation here where

406
00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:54,880
Speaker 2: I think they're going to be slow out of the gate.

407
00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:57,120
Speaker 2: So I like the wait on the Jets because I

408
00:16:57,160 --> 00:16:58,560
Speaker 2: look at that schedule and I can see them going

409
00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:01,000
Speaker 2: two and five in that schedule and then eventually over

410
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Speaker 2: time maybe finishing twelve and five. Like, I think they

411
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Speaker 2: could go on that kind of a run when you

412
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Speaker 2: see some of the teams they have later on the year,

413
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Speaker 2: if things start to click for them. So I like

414
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Speaker 2: the Jets, but I'm waiting on this number. I want

415
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Speaker 2: them to go into a better place first with more

416
00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:16,639
Speaker 2: losses to start the season. How do you approach the

417
00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:18,680
Speaker 2: Dolphins and the Jets? Because I am in on the

418
00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:20,240
Speaker 2: Jets and I think they have a chance to be

419
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Speaker 2: a contender. What do you think?

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's really hard not to draw the corollary

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Speaker 1: between what's the situation of Aaron Rodgers going to the

422
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Speaker 1: Jets and you know, Tom Brady going to the Buccaneers

423
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Speaker 1: a couple of years ago, you know, or.

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Speaker 2: Even Peyton Manning to the Denver Broncos. Go drop yourself

425
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Speaker 2: in with a good defense, and.

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Speaker 1: You know, take Brady. You know, you think like Brady

427
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Speaker 1: that last year the Patriots, Like it looked like it

428
00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:44,119
Speaker 1: felt like that whole season he had to foot out

429
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Speaker 1: the door, right, Like, you know, he felt like he

430
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Speaker 1: gets kind of out of the offensive system. He was

431
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Speaker 1: frustrated with the surrounding talent, and it felt like we

432
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Speaker 1: had a similar thing with Rogers, right, like you talked

433
00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:54,960
Speaker 1: about the dark cloud kind of maybe going away from

434
00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:56,960
Speaker 1: Green Bay. But I also think it's going to be

435
00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,000
Speaker 1: similar to that Buccaneers team. So you remember that that

436
00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:03,040
Speaker 1: Super Bowl Buccaneers team. They kind of they didn't start

437
00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:05,600
Speaker 1: like necessarily slow, but they finished real hot, Like they

438
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:07,199
Speaker 1: were seven and five, and I think they won their

439
00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:10,480
Speaker 1: last eight games the year. The Jets have an absolutely

440
00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:11,800
Speaker 1: miserable like opening.

441
00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:15,240
Speaker 2: They've got played the Eagles, They've got to play out

442
00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:15,800
Speaker 2: of the game.

443
00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:19,600
Speaker 1: They opened, Bills, Cowboys, Patriots, Chiefs, Broncos, Eagles. Like, yeah,

444
00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:21,400
Speaker 1: like you said, maybe there's a chance there's they're two

445
00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:23,520
Speaker 1: and four, you know, three and three, and like people

446
00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:26,040
Speaker 1: are like, oh, look at the hype that you replaced

447
00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:29,800
Speaker 1: on these guys. Yeah, I think that's when you bet them.

448
00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:32,400
Speaker 1: Because things get a lot better after their Week seven

449
00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:34,520
Speaker 1: by They still play some good teams, but it significantly

450
00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:36,399
Speaker 1: lightens up and like you said, you're buying it in

451
00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:38,840
Speaker 1: that defense like that Bucks team, like they're they're gonna

452
00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:40,520
Speaker 1: be able to figure this out along the way because

453
00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:44,080
Speaker 1: the defense is that damn good. Uh So, I think

454
00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,120
Speaker 1: that's what you say. I think the Jets definitely become

455
00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:48,200
Speaker 1: a better bet, like in season for sure, when like

456
00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:51,520
Speaker 1: some of the the sheen kind of falls off the rows.

457
00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,760
Speaker 1: The Dolphins are very tricky. So what's funny is these

458
00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:56,680
Speaker 1: are these two teams are the inverse what we talked

459
00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:59,480
Speaker 1: about Saints Falcons. These two teams play the two harder

460
00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:02,399
Speaker 1: schedules in the NFL for US, and the Dolphins are

461
00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:04,240
Speaker 1: at thirty. First they flipped. They play one of the

462
00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:07,080
Speaker 1: harder schedules as opposed last year they were eight and

463
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:09,360
Speaker 1: one and two of starts. But you kind of look

464
00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:12,040
Speaker 1: at it and like they beat they beat some real

465
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:15,040
Speaker 1: bad teams, and like and you people talk about the

466
00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:17,280
Speaker 1: upside like they had they had a three game stretch

467
00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:19,720
Speaker 1: there where they went absolutely you know nuclear as a

468
00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:22,479
Speaker 1: four game stretch I'm sorry, where they went absolutely nuclear

469
00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:24,760
Speaker 1: against the Lions, the Bears, the Browns, and the Texans.

470
00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:27,240
Speaker 1: And then immediately out of that people were like, oh man,

471
00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:29,040
Speaker 1: the Dolphins are for real, And do you remember immediately

472
00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:30,680
Speaker 1: out of that they faced the forty nine Ers and

473
00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:33,679
Speaker 1: got wopped. They faced the Chargers on Sunday Night Football

474
00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:35,959
Speaker 1: and got womped. And then they played a tight game

475
00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:38,520
Speaker 1: against the Bills, like they started to face like real opponents,

476
00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:41,359
Speaker 1: and it wasn't as tight. You have the two injury

477
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:43,359
Speaker 1: stuff that kind of then comes into play later in

478
00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:45,840
Speaker 1: the year. But it was like, how does Mike McDaniel

479
00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:49,000
Speaker 1: calibrate what happened to him against those good defenses?

480
00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:49,199
Speaker 2: Right?

481
00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:51,920
Speaker 1: Because those good defenses that took away the middle of

482
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:54,720
Speaker 1: the field and wanted to force Miami throw deep and

483
00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:57,119
Speaker 1: took away like all this all that rhythm stuff, Like,

484
00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:59,919
Speaker 1: how does Mike McDaniel now calibrate when they have this real,

485
00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:02,600
Speaker 1: really hard schedule now? Uh, like we talked about with

486
00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:06,000
Speaker 1: the Jets. So I'm real curious on the Dolphins. They're

487
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:07,720
Speaker 1: a team, like I'm just not I haven't touched them.

488
00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:10,399
Speaker 2: I don't I got no field either. So that to

489
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:14,000
Speaker 2: everybody watching and listening. If you love the Dolphins this year,

490
00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:16,879
Speaker 2: good on you. I can't get their rich seems to

491
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:18,879
Speaker 2: be struggling with it too. And I'll tell the truth, I.

492
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:20,200
Speaker 1: Do like it could be really good. I mean I

493
00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:22,880
Speaker 1: love like everything they've done, Like, dude, this def all

494
00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:26,360
Speaker 1: their defensive additions are sensational. Like you add Vic Fangio.

495
00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:28,000
Speaker 1: This is like one of the few teams in the

496
00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:31,560
Speaker 1: NFL that actually has like good like walla wall linebacker

497
00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:34,320
Speaker 1: play too, Like they don't have to live in sub

498
00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:37,359
Speaker 1: package defense. I mean, you add David Long, you already

499
00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:39,960
Speaker 1: have Van Gink, you have Jerome Baker, like these are studs.

500
00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:43,000
Speaker 1: You've got Christian Wilkins, You've got Bradley Chubb. Uh, they

501
00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:45,199
Speaker 1: have two of the best safeties in the NFL.

502
00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 2: Like this is this team is.

503
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:49,159
Speaker 1: Loaded on on defense. I mean I look at this

504
00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:52,480
Speaker 1: AFC east Man, I wonder like, like how the hell

505
00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:54,480
Speaker 1: any of these teams kind of get out of there?

506
00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:56,960
Speaker 2: Like right like it's the Bills are just boring to me,

507
00:20:57,200 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 2: like the Bill's been there, done that. I'm telling you.

508
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:01,800
Speaker 2: My play is to wait. Let the Jets get off

509
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:04,639
Speaker 2: to that slow start. Let that number expand from was

510
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:06,639
Speaker 2: it plus two eighty to win the division to probably

511
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,160
Speaker 2: I don't know, plus six hundred, and then I get

512
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:11,040
Speaker 2: in and then I watch and see what happens if

513
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:12,520
Speaker 2: it doesn't work. It doesn't work, but I can always

514
00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:14,399
Speaker 2: double down if they start to get hot and the

515
00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:17,320
Speaker 2: number starts to decrease. That's how you bet the futures market.

516
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:19,960
Speaker 2: It's like the stock market. You gotta watch, get in

517
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:21,640
Speaker 2: at the right time, get out at the right time,

518
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 2: and figure it all out. Let's play around some division odds. Okay,

519
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:26,479
Speaker 2: So New Orleans is a plus one thirty to win

520
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 2: the NFC South, Atlanta is at plus two to thirty.

521
00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:32,000
Speaker 2: Who would you rather take the New Orleans number or

522
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:34,280
Speaker 2: the Atlanta number? Plus one thirty for New Orleans plus

523
00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:35,240
Speaker 2: two thirty for Atlanta.

524
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think that the Falcons are like this is

525
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:40,399
Speaker 1: where you get like kind of the most value out

526
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:42,280
Speaker 1: of them. I still like the Saints still too to

527
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:44,120
Speaker 1: win the division. I think that they get like tie

528
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:47,640
Speaker 1: breakers because of the they have, you know, the rest

529
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:50,399
Speaker 1: advantage versus the Falcons in terms of that. But I

530
00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 1: think that there's value here for if you still like

531
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:53,680
Speaker 1: the Saints. But I mean, this is where I think

532
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:55,800
Speaker 1: you bet the Falcons if you do like them.

533
00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:58,800
Speaker 2: By the way, the Falcons number opened at plus four hundred.

534
00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:01,399
Speaker 2: That's why I bet the Falcons. I just put that

535
00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 2: out there.

536
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:04,480
Speaker 1: We'll see, we'll see if that Falcons have gotten hammered

537
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 1: like they're dude, you do the same thing with the Falcons.

538
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:10,359
Speaker 1: Maybe you try to gain value in season, right like,

539
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:12,440
Speaker 1: maybe like same thing. If you like the Lions, like you,

540
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:14,760
Speaker 1: you're probably gonna get better value in season than you

541
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:16,919
Speaker 1: are at this point of the off season with us

542
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:18,160
Speaker 1: only having like two weeks ago.

543
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 2: Well, like Jets in Miami will do this when we

544
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:22,719
Speaker 2: kind of hash it out already to win the division.

545
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 2: Jets right now consensus number plus two seventy It started

546
00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:27,359
Speaker 2: out a plus four seventy five, so obviously you know

547
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:29,959
Speaker 2: the hype is real there. I wait to get back

548
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 2: to the plus four seventy five, but Miami's a plus

549
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 2: three hundred. I think Rich kind of made this clear that, yeah,

550
00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:37,200
Speaker 2: he's just not feeling the Miami number. So let's skip

551
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:40,159
Speaker 2: to Baltimore. Plus two twenty five is the open now.

552
00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:42,760
Speaker 2: It's plus two thirty five here with the Borough injury

553
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,639
Speaker 2: and again a very tough division. I know the new

554
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 2: offensive coordinator takes some time to put things together. What

555
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 2: do you think of this rebuild Baltimore team? Are they

556
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 2: contenders or pretenders? Oh?

557
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:54,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're contenting. It's like if we don't like hardball

558
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:56,120
Speaker 1: is not gonna have a bad team, man, Like, there's

559
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 1: just this and everything that they've done is positive. It

560
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,120
Speaker 1: sucks that they waited till pay their quarterback two hundred

561
00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 1: and sixty million dollars to kind of make all these

562
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 1: transitions like that. You want to do that on a

563
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:08,440
Speaker 1: rookie contract. But they finally have at least like pushed

564
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:10,359
Speaker 1: the envelope. And no matter what you think of like

565
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:12,639
Speaker 1: Odell Beckham at this point, or you don't believe Bateman

566
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 1: is going to stay healthy, or you don't think a

567
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:17,920
Speaker 1: rookie in Zay Flowers is going to make like a

568
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:21,879
Speaker 1: true year one. I do you know Flowers everywhere you know,

569
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,879
Speaker 1: but collectively that wide receiver unit as a sum of

570
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 1: parts is just so much better than what they put

571
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:29,639
Speaker 1: on the field. Also, I mean you go back to

572
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:31,960
Speaker 1: last year. I mean this team gave the Bengals two

573
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 1: absolute hell games. Like, I mean, they have a shot

574
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:37,679
Speaker 1: to win that playoff game if Tyler Huntley doesn't try

575
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:41,200
Speaker 1: to jump from the four yard line over a pile,

576
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 1: like they might beat the Bengals and that in that game,

577
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 1: if that play doesn't happen like, so I definitely think

578
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:48,640
Speaker 1: there's value on the Ravens. We kind of talked about

579
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:50,159
Speaker 1: the Browns kind of being in that kind of that

580
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 1: weird spot. So I have no problem, you know, being

581
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:53,879
Speaker 1: being in on the Ravens.

582
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,000
Speaker 2: All right, let's do some rapid fire here to make

583
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 2: the playoffs the Jets to make the playoffs? Yes, minus

584
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 2: one thirty, no, plus one two? What do you want

585
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:00,720
Speaker 2: to do?

586
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:03,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean if you do are against the Jets, like,

587
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 1: this is where your value against the Jets is, right, Yeah,

588
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 1: like you are against the Jets, like, here's your value.

589
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:10,360
Speaker 2: Right, And I'm gonna wait, I'm gonna wait for that. Yes,

590
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:13,119
Speaker 2: just that two and five start. It's there. It's staring

591
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 2: us in the face, folks. It is staring. I'm telling you.

592
00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:18,679
Speaker 2: When when we when we start in mid October, that's

593
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:20,879
Speaker 2: when we're gonna get right back in there. Just the patient.

594
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,040
Speaker 2: What about Miami to make the playoffs? You get minus

595
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 2: one oh five on yes end No. So really, it's.

596
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 1: True's dead even it's the same thing. It's true true

597
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:29,360
Speaker 1: even like odds. I think that you're gonna get better

598
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 1: stuff in either direction. You know, probably in season I

599
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:33,200
Speaker 1: will say though, if you were on that short on,

600
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:35,680
Speaker 1: like you just think this division beats the hell out

601
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:38,359
Speaker 1: of each other. You you you value Josh Allen and

602
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers as being the two better quarterbacks, then this

603
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 1: would be a spot where you would say, yeah, it's

604
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 1: a little bit better here to take just the minus

605
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 1: one o five.

606
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:48,359
Speaker 2: Now, speaking of beating the hell out of each other,

607
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:50,680
Speaker 2: let's talk about the Pittsburgh go back to the AFC North,

608
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:53,639
Speaker 2: Yes to make the playoffs plus one forty no minus

609
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 2: one fifty five.

610
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:57,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just think in the AFC still, like your

611
00:24:57,640 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 1: margin here is just very thin. I know that Mike

612
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:03,640
Speaker 1: tom like he's got the alligator blood, right, I feel

613
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 1: like I feel like if you want to bet an

614
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 1: alligator blood team, you look at the Titans versus the

615
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,639
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers and saying that, like their division and everything

616
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,080
Speaker 1: that gives them better chances, that you get better odds,

617
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 1: like because like I mean, Steelers like this that you

618
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,440
Speaker 1: probably in the AFC one have to push double digit

619
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 1: wins and like that division like are even with them

620
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 1: being better and expecting some regression for Kenny Pickett, like

621
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:29,200
Speaker 1: positive regression to the meet, I mean, uh, it's still

622
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,399
Speaker 1: to bet them to have like double digit wins and

623
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 1: have a subside. Uh, it's still really hard for me

624
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:34,760
Speaker 1: to get there.

625
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:38,639
Speaker 2: All right, Chargers even money on the Yes, No plus

626
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:39,280
Speaker 2: one oh five.

627
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:40,960
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I'll tell you.

628
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 2: I'm in on that.

629
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 1: Like I said, I think that they're still one of

630
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 1: the better teams.

631
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 2: Okay, all right, So how about the New York Giants,

632
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 2: the team that made the playoffs last year? This number

633
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 2: was actually kind of surprising to me to Bailly truth

634
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 2: Rich to yes is plus one seventy two No minus

635
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 2: one ninety, Like, I mean, I know the Giants were

636
00:25:57,760 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 2: kind of the feel good story last year, but this

637
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 2: was this is a pretty harsh shade there of the

638
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:03,200
Speaker 2: know that the Giants can't do it. Do you agree?

639
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:06,160
Speaker 1: Oh well, this got hammered. I hammered the Giants early

640
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:08,440
Speaker 1: before when we got their list of schedule opponents and

641
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 1: then they got doubled down and they just got like

642
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 1: an absolute miserable draw in terms of rest and like

643
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 1: travel early in the season. They play so many road

644
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:17,719
Speaker 1: games early. This is a team that only won one

645
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:22,480
Speaker 1: division game last year. They were eighty four and one

646
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:25,159
Speaker 1: in one score games like they were twenty six and

647
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:27,680
Speaker 1: percentage of snap sled. The Giants are a tough case

648
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 1: because I actually think they're going to be a better

649
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 1: team than they were last year and win fewer games,

650
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:33,320
Speaker 1: and a lot of people will say, well, that's unsuccessful.

651
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 1: They just had so many high variants luck things go

652
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:39,359
Speaker 1: in their favor last year that probably don't happen, and

653
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:41,640
Speaker 1: they're just not as good as the Eagles and Cowboys

654
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:44,200
Speaker 1: at all, Like they're just from a roster stance. Like,

655
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:47,440
Speaker 1: so it's hard for me. I hammer the Giants. Really,

656
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 1: this is why this this one lost all buy if

657
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 1: you're going against the Giants, like this has gotten buryed

658
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:52,560
Speaker 1: since it open.

659
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 2: Cleveland. Brown's the note to make the playoffs minus one

660
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 2: twenty the yes plus one p. Fifteen. So, as you

661
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 2: said before, you're kind of threading the needle in the AFC,

662
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 2: especially in this division. So are you on the no

663
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:04,639
Speaker 2: side or just to stay away all together?

664
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 1: I mean, if you're on like the positive side, there's

665
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 1: some value here, Like I said, this is one where

666
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 1: I just I mean, I just think that it's in

667
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,440
Speaker 1: the it's just middle. I don't I'm not in love

668
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 1: with anything here.

669
00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 2: This is like and these are the hard conversations we

670
00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 2: have to have with ourselves too, because these are the

671
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 2: teams that think are the most difficult, the ones in

672
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 2: the middle of who they're going to be, and Seattle's

673
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 2: kind of one of those teams too. We mentioned Geno before,

674
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 2: let's talk about it. To make the playoffs. Yes, minus

675
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:32,840
Speaker 2: one twenty so Vegas feels pretty confident right now that

676
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 2: that's gonna happen the no at plus one to four.

677
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 2: Are you confident in Seattle's ability to get into the

678
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 2: playoffs in twenty three? I I am.

679
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:41,880
Speaker 1: I think when you look at the NFC landscape there,

680
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:43,919
Speaker 1: I think their position to be one of the better teams.

681
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 1: I actually like them to tie in. You have like

682
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 1: for potential long shot plays. I actually like Seattle at

683
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 1: plus thirteen hundred NFC two, Like it's a long play

684
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 1: you look at that because so the forty nine ers,

685
00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 1: like there's like some some trumportation, Like we know the

686
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 1: four we have the second best odds in the NFC

687
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 1: for the Super Bowl, but like there's some like fragility

688
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 1: with the forty nine ers. One of the forty nine ers.

689
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 1: Forty nine ers have the worst rest differential in the

690
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 1: entire league this year. They have like a pretty rough

691
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,719
Speaker 1: opening schedule, and then what if, like this quarterback situation

692
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 1: is like a thing all year, right, Like what if

693
00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:20,080
Speaker 1: it is like we can't just take five games from

694
00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 1: brock Party and say like this is who he is?

695
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:24,639
Speaker 1: Like what if there is like some fragility with this

696
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 1: quarterback situation and they have to deal with stuff. The

697
00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:29,359
Speaker 1: offensive line also is not particularly as strong as it

698
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 1: was on paper last year, especially when you're talking about

699
00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:34,119
Speaker 1: just your your anchor and your offensive line is pushing

700
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:36,119
Speaker 1: forty years old. Like what if Trent Williams were to

701
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 1: miss some time, this offensive line would then become like

702
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 1: a pretty weak unit overall. Definitely faced on Kyle Shanhan.

703
00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 1: But I think there's what I'm getting at is I

704
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 1: think that there's still value that creates value for the Seahawks. Also,

705
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 1: I think the Seahawks, when you look at it, like

706
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 1: they're probably going to take a step up defense. They

707
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 1: they got nothing but young athletes defensively, adding Jackson Smith

708
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 1: and Jigba, this is the team that was already effective

709
00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 1: on offense. I think that there is some stability in

710
00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:02,440
Speaker 1: the geno Smith like rolling over what he's done, because

711
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 1: not only do we have last year sample we have

712
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 1: that twenty twenty one sample of like he kind of

713
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 1: gets the system and you add a JSN like this

714
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:11,479
Speaker 1: is an offense that they might have the best one

715
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 1: through three wide receiver core in the league on the field, arguably.

716
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, if there's a chance, perfect segue, you laid it out.

717
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:19,280
Speaker 2: That's why you're such a pros pro. So looking at

718
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 2: long shots for the NFC, Seattle plus the thirteen hundred,

719
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 2: do you have one for the AFC?

720
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, the AFC, I think you're I think the Charger

721
00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:29,120
Speaker 1: still having the seventh best odds in the AFC gives

722
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 1: them value at plus thirteen hundred. I think here's where

723
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:33,959
Speaker 1: like the Browns may be of their most value at

724
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 1: like plus eighteen hundred, right, like, because you can turn

725
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 1: that into something I obviously don't. I don't I think

726
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 1: that it's warranted that their odds are there. But I

727
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 1: mean this is where you would get like your big payout, right,

728
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 1: Like we're talking long shots, and then I also think

729
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 1: in the NFC too, if you want to get real frisky,

730
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 1: this is where you have like maybe you have the

731
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 1: Falcons at plus twenty eight hundred and the Bears at

732
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 1: plus three thousand. If you want to get very frisky,

733
00:29:59,120 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 1: you want to get real.

734
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 2: That's a little that's a little fast and loose for me.

735
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 1: So for me AFC, I mean, listen, I got one

736
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:06,720
Speaker 1: hundred dollars of the Light on Fire for that.

737
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:11,000
Speaker 2: Of course we do AFC for me plus one thousand

738
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 2: the Jets right now, but again I'm gonna wait on

739
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 2: that number in the AFC, so not betting that. I

740
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:15,960
Speaker 2: think can get even better one in six weeks, so

741
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 2: just wait. The NFC for me is the Cowboys, which

742
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 2: again it's not a huge long shot, but plus six

743
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:23,959
Speaker 2: fifty is another one too where I feel like, if

744
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 2: you're looking around the landscape, you know who plays good defense?

745
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 2: If deck can you know, kind of get back on

746
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:31,360
Speaker 2: track and protect the football a little bit better, maybe

747
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 2: the best you know, challenger for the Eagles, who I

748
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 2: do already have heavy investments in to go back to

749
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl because they're the Eagles and they look fantastic,

750
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 2: is maybe from inside the house, maybe it is the

751
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 2: Dallas Cowboys, and then again the Jets right now plus

752
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 2: eighteen hundred to win the Super Bowl. You have a

753
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 2: long shot for the Super Bowl. You like to I

754
00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 2: want to throw that out there before we call it

755
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:50,200
Speaker 2: a day.

756
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 1: So I actually I like the Cowboys for a Super Bowl.

757
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 1: You know, obviously I like them at plus fourteen hundred.

758
00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 1: Obviously we I like NFC team, right, Like, I like

759
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 1: that in a lot of these long shots, the NFC

760
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 1: side of the equation, you know, getting through the NFC

761
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 1: playoffs is going to be a lot different than getting

762
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 1: through the AFC playoffs.

763
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the.

764
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 1: Cowboys, man, their roster is so loaded and they're almost

765
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 1: like have like the Charger Sigma. Like people are always

766
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 1: going to say, well, Dak Prescott is going to do

767
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 1: something in the playoffs, like that's gonna be But like,

768
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:18,640
Speaker 1: this roster is so good, this defense is gnarly. It

769
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 1: is like absolutely.

770
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 2: Why this year my friends lock it in And.

771
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 1: They actually have a little bit better draw than the

772
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 1: Eagles do because obviously how both the seasons went, you know,

773
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 1: and and we as a bummer, we didn't actually see

774
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 1: last year the Cowboys and Eagles actually play a heads

775
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 1: up game because Dak didn't play in the first game

776
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 1: and then hurts them play in.

777
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 2: The second game.

778
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,800
Speaker 1: So like, I'm excited. I'm excited to finally get to

779
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 1: see them play like at full strength. Because the one

780
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 1: that the that the the dak Minshew game was fun

781
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 1: as hell. Uh I can imagine what a bit of

782
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 1: Hurts was playing. So do you like the Cowboys? There?

783
00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 2: Circle those on your calendar. I like the Cowboys too. Again,

784
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 2: the defense, that's what I keep coming back to. I'm

785
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 2: looking for somebody who can defensively stand up to the Eagles,

786
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 2: and I keep landing on Dallas. We could keep you

787
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 2: all day, but again that's not fair to you. Follow

788
00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 2: him on Twitter, Richreebar at lord reebs r ee b

789
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 2: as check out all is amazing work at Sharp Football Analysis. Again,

790
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:19,680
Speaker 2: Warren Sharp and that whole team over there doing amazing

791
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 2: work every year, whether it be fantasy stuff, whether it

792
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 2: be wagering stuff. I mean, really, it's the best there is.

793
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 2: And I got to work a little bit with Warren

794
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 2: last year. And don't forget make sure you download the

795
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 2: Betting pros app if you haven't already, make sure you

796
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 2: create your account there sink all of your sports books.

797
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 2: That way you can go make the best choices you can.

798
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 2: We lay out all the odds and all the different houses.

799
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 2: You can find the best ones for whatever you want

800
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 2: to bet. You could say on top of things too.

801
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 2: With the apps, you can get the notifications when there's

802
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 2: line movement on some of these things that you're interested in.

803
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 2: You could set those notifications. Don't forget. You can go

804
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 2: premium at bettingpros dot com, slash upgrade or drop a

805
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 2: comment below, subscribe to the YouTube channel and you might

806
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 2: win a freeb one of it anyway. That way you

807
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:01,000
Speaker 2: can bet smarter or not harder all season long this

808
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 2: NFL year. Great stuff as always. That'll do it for us,

809
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 2: but the story of the game goes on for rich freebar.

810
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:09,200
Speaker 2: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids,