WEBVTT - Amazon’s Demand Cools as Investors Spot Weakness

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Amazon shares are plummeting, posting

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<v Speaker 1>their biggest drop since as the company acknowledged that a

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<v Speaker 1>hiring and warehouse building binge during the pandemic now really

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<v Speaker 1>catching up with the company as e commerce sales growth

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<v Speaker 1>inevitably slows from the toward pace that we've seen from

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<v Speaker 1>the outbreak. We're all done kind of Mike going crazy

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<v Speaker 1>on Amazon and look at the if you look at

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<v Speaker 1>the size and scope, as we like to say over

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<v Speaker 1>in the newsroom, uh, in the just today for Amazon,

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<v Speaker 1>that's their worst drop since two thousand and six. About

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<v Speaker 1>the historic, so even more than I think i'd put

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<v Speaker 1>it out. So it's it's it's a greater drop. Yeah, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it's huge, all right, and that's why we're seeing the

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<v Speaker 1>drag on those major equity averages. Hey, let's get to

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<v Speaker 1>the story, the fundamentals. Bloomberg News technology reporter Matt Day

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone in Seattle, joining up Mike and myself. So, Matt,

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<v Speaker 1>we got the results. Initially, we saw the stock drop.

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<v Speaker 1>What other insight do we get? Our intel? Um on

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<v Speaker 1>the analysts call last night, it was it was a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of playing defense from Amazon, which you might expect

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<v Speaker 1>given the ugly numbers they reported. You know, they're they're

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<v Speaker 1>really trying to push people to think of the big picture.

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<v Speaker 1>And remember all of that growth Amazon turned through during

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<v Speaker 1>the pandemic. Um, you know, listen at a different universe

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<v Speaker 1>they pulled through. You know a lot of a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of increases in an e commerce behavior just in in

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<v Speaker 1>a period of twelve months. And to take the long view,

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<v Speaker 1>investors clearly haven't haven't bought that. They they see some

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<v Speaker 1>weakness and Amazon's business that that weren't weren't apparent before.

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<v Speaker 1>Are they right to focus? Is Amazon right? We had

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<v Speaker 1>an investor on too Amazon is is his number one pick.

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<v Speaker 1>He says it's the most undervalued play out there. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>Probably speaking his book, but he covers the tech sector

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<v Speaker 1>and has for a while. Um, we talked with him

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<v Speaker 1>last night. But I'm just wondering, is Amazon right to

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<v Speaker 1>focus or refocus the analysis community about the growth? You know,

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<v Speaker 1>they certainly have a point. Um, they've grown a ton,

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<v Speaker 1>They've they've grabbed a ton of market share since the

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<v Speaker 1>beginning of the pandemic. I think the question that that

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<v Speaker 1>that analysis leaves out is what happens now. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>is Amazon structurally more profitable business now that they have

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<v Speaker 1>built all of these warehouses around the U S to

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<v Speaker 1>meet all of our demand? Or you know, because labor

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<v Speaker 1>costs are what they are and and supply to him,

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<v Speaker 1>looks like it's never gonna get uncanked. Um, is it

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<v Speaker 1>just a structurally more expensive business to run an e

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<v Speaker 1>commerce operation? I think that's a that's an open question

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<v Speaker 1>now in a way it wasn't just just twenty four

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<v Speaker 1>hours ago. Yeah, Matt, you know, I'm an older guy,

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<v Speaker 1>as they say, as the reason I have that title

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<v Speaker 1>senior senior editor, Carol. But I remember back in the day.

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<v Speaker 1>It almost didn't matter what Amazon's earnings said. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>they had that top line growth, They had these investments

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<v Speaker 1>in R and D, branching out into new business lines,

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<v Speaker 1>cloud computing, you know. I mean, they went from basically

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<v Speaker 1>a bookseller to what they are now. Is anyone in

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<v Speaker 1>the analyst community making that case sort of defending them, saying, look,

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<v Speaker 1>this is kind of old school Amazon, just laying the

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<v Speaker 1>groundwork for for the future. We're are we really looking

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<v Speaker 1>at a scenario where we could see maybe even the

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<v Speaker 1>closing some of all these warehouses they build, or laying

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<v Speaker 1>off this massive number of people that they hired. Uh

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<v Speaker 1>any idea which way people are expecting them to go?

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's it's a great question. I mean, it's

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<v Speaker 1>definitely too soon to suggest they're gonna they're gonna start

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<v Speaker 1>laying people off in droves or closing some of these facilities.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think some of the problem that that analysts

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<v Speaker 1>are chewing on is just how big Amazon has gotten.

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<v Speaker 1>Like in those in those earlier days you talked about

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<v Speaker 1>like they could they could move the needle a lot easily.

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<v Speaker 1>They are, They're a cute e commerce company, and getting

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<v Speaker 1>into new lines of business was with maybe maybe less

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<v Speaker 1>of a risk and easier to make a big difference.

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<v Speaker 1>Even even after that crazy decline in their their share price,

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<v Speaker 1>there's still more than a one trillion dollar company, right, Um,

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<v Speaker 1>So it's just just getting incrementally harder to keep up

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<v Speaker 1>with all of this, you know, twenty year growth that

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<v Speaker 1>they they fed to Wall Street for so many years

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<v Speaker 1>in a row. You know, uh that I was reading

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<v Speaker 1>a story of years a while back on CEO Andy

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<v Speaker 1>Jesse's compensation package, and I almost I had to take

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<v Speaker 1>my glasses off and clean them. I I thought I

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<v Speaker 1>thought I was reading it wrong. It was like moment

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<v Speaker 1>it was like, yeah, it was like two d and

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<v Speaker 1>twenty million. Granted a lot of that in stock. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>but I'm wondering that. You know, so he has a

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<v Speaker 1>background in the web services side of the business, which

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<v Speaker 1>was such a strong driver of growth now, but with

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<v Speaker 1>this problem on the the e commerce side, is is

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<v Speaker 1>there any grumblings you're picking up, any grumblings that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe Jeff Bezos should come back from space and and

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<v Speaker 1>that maybe you know that they should that they need

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<v Speaker 1>a stronger leader in that retail side of the business.

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<v Speaker 1>Nobody's nobody's crying loud enough, but it's it's reaching my

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<v Speaker 1>ears so far. I mean, I think this is this

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<v Speaker 1>is definitely and Jesse's biggest challenge since sitting in this chair.

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<v Speaker 1>And and and the word we get from Amazon is that

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<v Speaker 1>he's still asking just really hard questions of a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of business. You know, certainly today he's asking a bunch

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<v Speaker 1>of of their core retail unit. Um What what we're

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<v Speaker 1>hearing at Amazon is this is giving giving Jesse uh

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<v Speaker 1>kind of an excuse to um to to interrogate some

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<v Speaker 1>of Amazon's assumptions, right, like what are they what are

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<v Speaker 1>they planning on for e commerce growth? And can they

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<v Speaker 1>sustain that? So I don't think we've seen enough results

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<v Speaker 1>of that, And certainly, you know, nobody seems to be

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<v Speaker 1>calling for his head this morning as far as I

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<v Speaker 1>can tell. Hey, man, I'm looking at the Bloomberg and

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<v Speaker 1>looking at three year growth average numbers on the big

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<v Speaker 1>product revenue segmentation when it comes to Amazon, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>online store is obviously the big bulk in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>the overall revenues, but in terms of growth it is

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<v Speaker 1>a WS or those third party sellers at least over

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<v Speaker 1>the last three years. Subscription services is too when you

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<v Speaker 1>look especially at a WS, is that still the thing

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<v Speaker 1>that kind of shining holy grail when it comes to Amazon,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's where a lot of growth can still come

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<v Speaker 1>And it really is. And that's that's so much of

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<v Speaker 1>the bool case for the company and buy some estimates

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<v Speaker 1>at half of their valuation or more today is just

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<v Speaker 1>at AWS. You know, structurally, more business and retail is

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<v Speaker 1>going to keep growing and they're going to keep expanding

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<v Speaker 1>as as you know, more companies put put their servers

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<v Speaker 1>out of business and and trust to the cloud. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>I think you've also you also got to note the

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<v Speaker 1>advertising business Amazon. Last four I started to break out

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<v Speaker 1>ads and they're doing real well there too. Yeah, it's

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<v Speaker 1>interesting to our Bloomberg Intelligence team putting that out to

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<v Speaker 1>when it comes to when we're seeing some of the

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<v Speaker 1>ad disappointments amongst some of the other companies, whether it

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<v Speaker 1>was Google right specifically UM saying that increasingly we're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>Amazon take a bigger share of that. Hey, Matt Day,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. Technology Putter at Bloomberg News. We

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<v Speaker 1>know Amazon among the top decliners in both the SMP

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<v Speaker 1>and the NASDAC on this Friday. You're listening to Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim

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<v Speaker 1>Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So outside advisors to the U

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<v Speaker 1>s f d A tentatively planned to meet UH in

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<v Speaker 1>June to talk about covenanteen vaccines for younger kids were

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<v Speaker 1>talking about five years or under five years of age.

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<v Speaker 1>The news coming one day after Maderna's that it had

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<v Speaker 1>applied for emergency authorization for itch shot in young kids.

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<v Speaker 1>So let's get a pandemic update on this Friday. Back

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<v Speaker 1>with us, as he often is on a Friday, Dr

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<v Speaker 1>Ian LUs Bader, clinical Professor of Medicine at n y

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<v Speaker 1>U Land, going on the phone in New York City,

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<v Speaker 1>joining Mike Reagan and myself. Ian, how are you doing

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<v Speaker 1>very well? Carol and Mike. Happy Friday. I hope you

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<v Speaker 1>guys are doing well. Yeah, it feels good. Feels good

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<v Speaker 1>to be Friday. Uh. Yeah, we're we're loving it ahead

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<v Speaker 1>of the weekend. Um. It also does feel good to

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<v Speaker 1>see that when it comes to the vaccine, we're finally

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<v Speaker 1>getting to those little critters. How do you see it?

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<v Speaker 1>And I'm always curious about what's involved and getting um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, youth authorization safe use authorization for younger kids.

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<v Speaker 1>So there are really a number of questions about COVID

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<v Speaker 1>of as there have been over the past two years

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<v Speaker 1>that we've been following this and vaccines. In a very

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<v Speaker 1>interesting article in the New York Times entitled Truth and Trust,

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<v Speaker 1>the author David Leonard really talks about public health officials

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<v Speaker 1>sending confusing messages about masks vaccines, and I think that's

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<v Speaker 1>what we're seeing with the really pediatric and UM, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>essentially neo natal vaccines. And they do have to go

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<v Speaker 1>through a vaccine committee that reviews the data, and they're

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<v Speaker 1>taking a little bit of a pause to to really

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<v Speaker 1>review this. And I think we have to keep in

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<v Speaker 1>mind a few things. One, UM, these vaccines still are

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<v Speaker 1>for the alpha That the alpha virus, which is two

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<v Speaker 1>years old O macron, both in kids and adults, is

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<v Speaker 1>a relatively milder vaccine over thirty mutations just in the

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<v Speaker 1>spike protein alone. So I think their question is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be, UM, do we really need this uh? And

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<v Speaker 1>what are the risks and what are the benefits? So

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<v Speaker 1>a O macron is milder than alphas, So do we

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<v Speaker 1>really need to give alpha shots? It's two shots to

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<v Speaker 1>UM two children really as young as six months old.

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<v Speaker 1>The studies look from six months to six years to

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<v Speaker 1>most young people do better than old people anyway. With

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<v Speaker 1>with the virus and what really are both the short

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<v Speaker 1>term and long term side effects. We know that the

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<v Speaker 1>vaccines in a small percent of patients, they can have myocarditis,

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<v Speaker 1>neurologic problems, other problems. And do we really need to

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<v Speaker 1>expose millions of kids to really save the lives potentially

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<v Speaker 1>of maybe hundreds or perhaps a thousand kids who have

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<v Speaker 1>died sadly, but that's really mainly from the from the

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<v Speaker 1>alpha of virus, not from the omicron. So anyway, they

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<v Speaker 1>have to look at all of that data, right, the

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<v Speaker 1>data is sort of questionable. It's the efficacy was fairly

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<v Speaker 1>low at you know, talk to those calculations that the

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<v Speaker 1>FDA are doing that you're talking about, I feel like

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<v Speaker 1>parents in this country are doing the same type of calculations.

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<v Speaker 1>And I've noticed just anecdotally, you know, friends that I

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<v Speaker 1>talked to who even have gotten the vaccine themselves, and

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<v Speaker 1>at the booster, there's a bit more reluctance to have

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<v Speaker 1>their kids get the booster or to get the shot

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<v Speaker 1>when it's available. Do you think the uptake on this

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<v Speaker 1>Madurna vaccine, if it is approved for these young kids

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<v Speaker 1>will be will be pretty low as a result, And

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<v Speaker 1>you know what does that mean for the virus going forward? Mike,

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<v Speaker 1>You're exactly right. That's sort of hesitancy I think will

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<v Speaker 1>be shared by a lot of people because they're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>an adults that many people have either had COVID or

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<v Speaker 1>have had three shots and they still get O macron

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<v Speaker 1>and they're going to wonder like if I even vaccinate

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<v Speaker 1>my child, my me andate or young child isn't really

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<v Speaker 1>going to do anything. And that's what we're seeing with

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<v Speaker 1>questions about the fourth shot, the same question how long

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<v Speaker 1>does the protection last? Do we really needed for our kids?

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<v Speaker 1>And what other potential side effects? So I do think,

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<v Speaker 1>as you say, the uptake on this may not be

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<v Speaker 1>as great as we think. I think it's good to

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<v Speaker 1>offer to people they can make their own decision. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's nice for for some kids who may

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<v Speaker 1>have immune compromise. Is it good for everyone? I think

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<v Speaker 1>we have to wait and really review more data. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like anything that has to do with COVID,

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like there's always a ton of question. No,

0:11:14.440 --> 0:11:16.760
<v Speaker 1>um Ian, thank you so much. Listen, have a great weekend.

0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:19.079
<v Speaker 1>Dr Ian los Spader, clinical Professor of Medicine at n

0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:21.760
<v Speaker 1>y U Lango Medical Center with us on the phone

0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:24.160
<v Speaker 1>from New York City. The FDA, though, has said it

0:11:24.280 --> 0:11:27.719
<v Speaker 1>is holding the dates of June eight je June for

0:11:27.800 --> 0:11:31.720
<v Speaker 1>potential meetings of its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory

0:11:31.720 --> 0:11:34.400
<v Speaker 1>Committee to talk about pediatric use of vaccines made my

0:11:34.920 --> 0:11:37.880
<v Speaker 1>Manderna and also the partnership of Fiser and bion Tech,

0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:40.199
<v Speaker 1>so they're going to be Mike certainly looking into it.

0:11:40.800 --> 0:11:44.840
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg

0:11:44.920 --> 0:11:48.839
<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So in the

0:11:48.880 --> 0:11:51.480
<v Speaker 1>new issue of Bloomberg business Week magazine, it's already out

0:11:51.520 --> 0:11:54.720
<v Speaker 1>on newsstands, it's online at Bloomberg dot com, also business

0:11:54.720 --> 0:11:56.840
<v Speaker 1>Week dot com and off of course, on the Bloomberg terminal.

0:11:57.280 --> 0:11:59.400
<v Speaker 1>It's a story by Josh Green that looks at Florida's

0:11:59.400 --> 0:12:03.120
<v Speaker 1>Governor Rondo Santis raising his profile while managing to not

0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:06.559
<v Speaker 1>alienate former President Donald Trump, which is tricky as we

0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:09.640
<v Speaker 1>all know. That story from Bloomberg Business Week National correspondent

0:12:09.720 --> 0:12:12.240
<v Speaker 1>Josh Green, who joins us on the phone in Washington,

0:12:12.360 --> 0:12:14.559
<v Speaker 1>d C. Josh, good to have you here with Mike

0:12:14.640 --> 0:12:18.160
<v Speaker 1>Reagan and myself. So tell us about what the Florida

0:12:18.200 --> 0:12:21.400
<v Speaker 1>governor is up to, because he's been quite public uh

0:12:22.080 --> 0:12:23.840
<v Speaker 1>as of late, especially when it comes to his spat

0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:27.640
<v Speaker 1>with the Walt Disney Company. Yeah. I'm really looking at it,

0:12:27.800 --> 0:12:29.960
<v Speaker 1>at the Santis and the Disney fight in our new issue,

0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:33.640
<v Speaker 1>because it's it's just odd to see the popular governor

0:12:33.800 --> 0:12:37.600
<v Speaker 1>of a big state attack his state's most prominent employer.

0:12:37.640 --> 0:12:39.520
<v Speaker 1>And yet that is what is happening in Florida, with

0:12:39.640 --> 0:12:44.199
<v Speaker 1>the Santis attacking the Walt Disney Company for uh statements

0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:47.199
<v Speaker 1>and support it's put out for for gay people and

0:12:47.280 --> 0:12:51.400
<v Speaker 1>for criticizing what Democrats called the Don't Say Gay law

0:12:51.480 --> 0:12:54.280
<v Speaker 1>in Florida that the sand is pushed and signed that

0:12:54.600 --> 0:13:00.880
<v Speaker 1>forbids teachers from teaching about gender to uh younger school kids. UH.

0:13:00.960 --> 0:13:03.160
<v Speaker 1>And it's turned into this big fight in politics, and

0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:06.000
<v Speaker 1>people are kind of wondering what is going on. And basically,

0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:07.679
<v Speaker 1>as I lay out in the new issue of Business Week,

0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:12.360
<v Speaker 1>de Santis is purposely picking this fight because it is

0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:16.280
<v Speaker 1>something that chimes with what conservatives care about it's about

0:13:16.320 --> 0:13:19.040
<v Speaker 1>the culture wars. But he's also trying to do something

0:13:19.400 --> 0:13:22.800
<v Speaker 1>very tricky for Republican presidential hopeful, and that is to

0:13:22.960 --> 0:13:28.760
<v Speaker 1>raise his own profiles presidential prospect without pissing off the

0:13:28.800 --> 0:13:31.439
<v Speaker 1>biggest guy in Republican politics, and that is Donald Trump.

0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:34.680
<v Speaker 1>You know. And first, Carol, full disclosure, as a father

0:13:34.760 --> 0:13:36.520
<v Speaker 1>of three daughters, I don't know how much I've spent

0:13:36.640 --> 0:13:40.040
<v Speaker 1>at Disney and on their products. Just get that out

0:13:40.080 --> 0:13:42.400
<v Speaker 1>of the way. But josh I, I think you you

0:13:42.679 --> 0:13:45.880
<v Speaker 1>make a good point in this column about how this

0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:48.600
<v Speaker 1>is really something that kind of riles up the base,

0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:52.520
<v Speaker 1>uh and and the real sort of vocal thought leaders,

0:13:52.559 --> 0:13:55.200
<v Speaker 1>if you will, of the Republican Party. It's the type

0:13:55.240 --> 0:13:58.360
<v Speaker 1>of thing that maybe makes sense in a primary season,

0:13:58.840 --> 0:14:01.720
<v Speaker 1>but if de Santis is to get the nomination, um,

0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:05.200
<v Speaker 1>I'm curious what you think, you know, does being anti

0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:08.520
<v Speaker 1>Disney play nationally or is it the type of thing

0:14:08.600 --> 0:14:10.880
<v Speaker 1>where he you know, suddenly we'll see him make amends

0:14:11.000 --> 0:14:13.160
<v Speaker 1>with with Disney and be riding the teacups in a

0:14:13.240 --> 0:14:15.439
<v Speaker 1>in a photo op and and making friends with the

0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:19.560
<v Speaker 1>LGBTQ community a little bit. When he tries to move

0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:22.880
<v Speaker 1>to the middle of a little bit in a general election. Yeah. Well,

0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:25.120
<v Speaker 1>what he's really doing, and he's been doing this since

0:14:25.240 --> 0:14:28.000
<v Speaker 1>last fall I wrote about him back then, before Disney

0:14:28.120 --> 0:14:30.760
<v Speaker 1>was in his crosshairs, is it's not so much that

0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:34.560
<v Speaker 1>he's fighting against Disney. He's fighting against this broader notion

0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:38.160
<v Speaker 1>of what he calls woke capitalism, the idea that businesses

0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:43.760
<v Speaker 1>generally are spurning their shareholders and kind of subordinating themselves

0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:48.000
<v Speaker 1>to UM activist liberals who want them to adopt a

0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:50.760
<v Speaker 1>social agenda. And in fairness to the Santus, that is

0:14:50.840 --> 0:14:54.680
<v Speaker 1>not entirely untrue. Liberals have made a point of targeting

0:14:55.080 --> 0:14:58.640
<v Speaker 1>Fortune five companies in states like Georgia where they really

0:14:58.680 --> 0:15:01.000
<v Speaker 1>don't have political power. He saw that last year with

0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:04.800
<v Speaker 1>all the fights over Delta and Coca Cola. UM activists

0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:08.560
<v Speaker 1>had pressured them to speak out against these voting restriction laws.

0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:12.160
<v Speaker 1>Republicans had responded with the boycott. What the Santus is

0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:14.520
<v Speaker 1>doing and essentially is turning the table and starting a

0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:17.560
<v Speaker 1>political fight with Disney because he wants to draw his

0:15:17.840 --> 0:15:22.160
<v Speaker 1>attention to himself as someone combating UH this issue of

0:15:22.240 --> 0:15:26.040
<v Speaker 1>woke capitalism, which is very popular with conservatives UM, and

0:15:26.160 --> 0:15:29.200
<v Speaker 1>it serves his immediate political interests because it helps to

0:15:29.320 --> 0:15:33.800
<v Speaker 1>raise his profile in the lead up to the Republican

0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:36.680
<v Speaker 1>presidential primary. And you know, Josh, you follow this stuff

0:15:36.680 --> 0:15:39.240
<v Speaker 1>a lot more closely than I do. But it seems

0:15:39.240 --> 0:15:41.440
<v Speaker 1>to me that Donald Trump hasn't really staked out a

0:15:41.520 --> 0:15:45.560
<v Speaker 1>position on Disney per se, and he never really seemed

0:15:45.600 --> 0:15:47.720
<v Speaker 1>to show too much animosity, at least in his in

0:15:47.800 --> 0:15:51.120
<v Speaker 1>his statements towards the LGBTQ community. Do you think he'll

0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:53.560
<v Speaker 1>he'll try to chase the Santis on this issue or

0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:55.440
<v Speaker 1>how do you see him reacting to this? You know,

0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:57.280
<v Speaker 1>it's interesting. I'm not sure if you will are not.

0:15:57.440 --> 0:16:00.080
<v Speaker 1>The reason to Santis started this issue is because he

0:16:00.200 --> 0:16:03.120
<v Speaker 1>needed something to raise his profile, and the problem he

0:16:03.240 --> 0:16:06.600
<v Speaker 1>had is that most of the fights in Republican politics

0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:11.080
<v Speaker 1>are cultural fights that revolve around Donald Trump. There fights

0:16:11.160 --> 0:16:14.920
<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump has started, Their fights that revolve around him.

0:16:15.000 --> 0:16:17.560
<v Speaker 1>The big one that's royaling a lot of primary races,

0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:20.840
<v Speaker 1>including the one I've written about um in the Pennsylvania

0:16:20.920 --> 0:16:23.560
<v Speaker 1>Senate race, is the question of whether or not Trump

0:16:23.680 --> 0:16:25.640
<v Speaker 1>was the rightful winner of the election and had it

0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:31.200
<v Speaker 1>stolen from him. The status correctly recognizes that anytime you

0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:33.600
<v Speaker 1>know he's gotta he's got to sort of talk about

0:16:33.640 --> 0:16:38.200
<v Speaker 1>Trump's issues, subordinate himself to Trump. It makes him look feckless,

0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:42.000
<v Speaker 1>it doesn't make him look like a strong, standalone candidate

0:16:42.040 --> 0:16:44.320
<v Speaker 1>who can develop his own following. And so one reason

0:16:44.400 --> 0:16:47.160
<v Speaker 1>he started this fight with with Disney is that it's

0:16:47.160 --> 0:16:50.920
<v Speaker 1>the kind of uh cultural grievance that Republicans have really

0:16:51.040 --> 0:16:53.520
<v Speaker 1>learned to care a lot about um in the era

0:16:53.600 --> 0:16:56.120
<v Speaker 1>of Donald Trump. And yet it isn't a fight that

0:16:56.240 --> 0:17:00.200
<v Speaker 1>revolves around Trump or one that Trump has even particularly involved. Then,

0:17:00.440 --> 0:17:01.680
<v Speaker 1>so I think we'll have to wait and see whether

0:17:01.760 --> 0:17:05.080
<v Speaker 1>Trump or not decides to get involved in the Disney fight.

0:17:05.400 --> 0:17:08.159
<v Speaker 1>But the Santus has already won to an extent, at

0:17:08.240 --> 0:17:11.359
<v Speaker 1>least in the political realm um by by creating this

0:17:11.440 --> 0:17:14.680
<v Speaker 1>spectacle that revolves around him, that's raised his profile, that's

0:17:14.720 --> 0:17:17.720
<v Speaker 1>gotten conservatives excited, and that has nothing to do for

0:17:17.800 --> 0:17:20.320
<v Speaker 1>the time being with Donald Trump. Hey Josh, what is

0:17:20.560 --> 0:17:24.480
<v Speaker 1>the relationship between De Santis and Donald Trump? It sounds

0:17:24.480 --> 0:17:28.200
<v Speaker 1>like it's a little complicated, very frosty, very frosty. Yes,

0:17:28.280 --> 0:17:33.720
<v Speaker 1>I mean, Trump expects people in the Republican Party, all politicians,

0:17:33.840 --> 0:17:37.440
<v Speaker 1>to essentially bow down to him, in genuflect um de

0:17:37.600 --> 0:17:41.080
<v Speaker 1>Santis in particular because when the Santis was first running

0:17:41.080 --> 0:17:44.199
<v Speaker 1>for governor in the Republican primary, Trump endorsed him and frankly,

0:17:44.320 --> 0:17:46.600
<v Speaker 1>probably got him elected. I don't think the Santis would

0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:49.240
<v Speaker 1>be governor were it not for Donald Trump. UM. But

0:17:49.320 --> 0:17:51.320
<v Speaker 1>at the same time, the Santus has ambitions of his

0:17:51.400 --> 0:17:54.560
<v Speaker 1>own and recognizes that deferring to Trump is going to

0:17:54.600 --> 0:17:56.920
<v Speaker 1>make it impossible for De Santis to be the Republican

0:17:57.000 --> 0:18:00.239
<v Speaker 1>nominee in two and so he's refused to try. Has

0:18:00.359 --> 0:18:03.400
<v Speaker 1>noticed this, Uh, it's angered him quite a bit. He's

0:18:03.400 --> 0:18:07.280
<v Speaker 1>complained privately to advisers that the Sanders is a loser,

0:18:07.400 --> 0:18:10.560
<v Speaker 1>that he has a dull personality, and he's taken shots

0:18:10.600 --> 0:18:13.479
<v Speaker 1>at the Santis publicly for refusing to reveal, for instance,

0:18:13.480 --> 0:18:16.280
<v Speaker 1>whether or not he's had a COVID booster shot. He

0:18:16.400 --> 0:18:18.920
<v Speaker 1>doesn't like the fact that the Santus has become popular

0:18:19.480 --> 0:18:23.520
<v Speaker 1>on terms that don't put him um as a secondary

0:18:23.520 --> 0:18:26.840
<v Speaker 1>figure to Trump, you know. Trust. Another story that caught

0:18:26.880 --> 0:18:28.800
<v Speaker 1>my eye this week was that the whole Q and

0:18:29.000 --> 0:18:33.639
<v Speaker 1>On community has piled in on this Disney issue. Is

0:18:33.720 --> 0:18:35.760
<v Speaker 1>are we seeing the signs of that sort of fringe

0:18:35.880 --> 0:18:39.159
<v Speaker 1>element of the right wing getting on board with the

0:18:39.280 --> 0:18:42.520
<v Speaker 1>Santis or is or is that just absolutely well, certainly

0:18:42.560 --> 0:18:45.240
<v Speaker 1>they're being attracted to the fight that the Santus has started,

0:18:45.280 --> 0:18:48.800
<v Speaker 1>and to the extent that this fight raises, the santass profile,

0:18:49.240 --> 0:18:52.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, sucks in all the kind of activist fringy

0:18:53.160 --> 0:18:56.840
<v Speaker 1>wackos who drive so much Republican politics these days, you'd

0:18:56.880 --> 0:18:58.879
<v Speaker 1>have to think, you know, not great for Disney, not

0:18:59.040 --> 0:19:01.840
<v Speaker 1>great for teachers and kids and l g B, t

0:19:02.000 --> 0:19:04.879
<v Speaker 1>q Q folks who are in the cross singers here.

0:19:05.119 --> 0:19:08.440
<v Speaker 1>But as far as the Santus's own short term political interests,

0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:11.720
<v Speaker 1>it's really hard to see that hurting him. It's fascinating

0:19:11.720 --> 0:19:13.560
<v Speaker 1>to see how this is playing out here, and of

0:19:13.600 --> 0:19:18.040
<v Speaker 1>course the midterms just really months away. A Josh Father,

0:19:18.160 --> 0:19:20.800
<v Speaker 1>excuse me, thank you so much. Josh Green. He's national

0:19:20.800 --> 0:19:23.840
<v Speaker 1>correspondent at Bloomberg Business Week. His story is featured in

0:19:23.880 --> 0:19:26.600
<v Speaker 1>the new issue of Business Week magazine, available on newsstands,

0:19:26.680 --> 0:19:29.520
<v Speaker 1>on the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg dot com slash business Week,

0:19:29.560 --> 0:19:32.000
<v Speaker 1>so be sure to check it out. You're listening to

0:19:32.119 --> 0:19:36.080
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick takes

0:19:36.200 --> 0:19:40.719
<v Speaker 1>Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So Goldman Sacks offering its

0:19:40.720 --> 0:19:43.680
<v Speaker 1>first ever lending facility back by bitcoin. It's a significant

0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:46.159
<v Speaker 1>step for a major US bank that accelerates Wall streets

0:19:46.160 --> 0:19:49.040
<v Speaker 1>embrace of crypto. Meantime, Mike and I just talking about

0:19:49.119 --> 0:19:52.920
<v Speaker 1>the journal, talking about the labor department and officials they're

0:19:52.960 --> 0:19:55.480
<v Speaker 1>believing Fidelities planned to allow investors to put bitcoin in

0:19:55.480 --> 0:19:58.639
<v Speaker 1>there four oh one k accounts, risks, the retirement security

0:19:58.760 --> 0:20:01.480
<v Speaker 1>of Americans, so so much as always on a daily

0:20:01.520 --> 0:20:03.879
<v Speaker 1>basis to talk about when it comes to crypto. In

0:20:03.920 --> 0:20:07.280
<v Speaker 1>our weekly crypto segment, we welcome Rick Edelman. He's founder

0:20:07.440 --> 0:20:10.960
<v Speaker 1>of dac FP. That's Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals,

0:20:11.000 --> 0:20:13.840
<v Speaker 1>which worked with financial professionals when it comes to learning

0:20:13.840 --> 0:20:16.320
<v Speaker 1>about blockchain and digital assets. Rick is with us on

0:20:16.440 --> 0:20:19.000
<v Speaker 1>the phone in Virginia. Rick, nice to have you here.

0:20:19.080 --> 0:20:21.800
<v Speaker 1>I do feel like every day we are flooded by

0:20:22.000 --> 0:20:24.960
<v Speaker 1>people embracing the crypto world and people taking a step

0:20:25.000 --> 0:20:28.440
<v Speaker 1>back and being more cautious about crypto. Tell us, first

0:20:28.440 --> 0:20:31.919
<v Speaker 1>of all your organization, what you are doing to educate

0:20:32.040 --> 0:20:35.359
<v Speaker 1>the financial world when it comes to the crypto world.

0:20:36.240 --> 0:20:38.960
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for having me on Carol. The challenge, of course,

0:20:39.080 --> 0:20:42.040
<v Speaker 1>is that crypto is so new financial advisors don't know

0:20:42.160 --> 0:20:44.520
<v Speaker 1>much more about it than everybody else, and that's not

0:20:44.640 --> 0:20:48.119
<v Speaker 1>really good when clients come asking what is bitcoin? Should

0:20:48.160 --> 0:20:51.360
<v Speaker 1>I invest? How do I invest? So we created dak

0:20:51.480 --> 0:20:55.960
<v Speaker 1>FPA four years ago to serve as the premier education resource.

0:20:56.000 --> 0:20:59.320
<v Speaker 1>We're the only game in town, really the only objective independent,

0:20:59.400 --> 0:21:03.600
<v Speaker 1>we're not proud sponsored, we're not pushing products, etcetera. UH,

0:21:03.840 --> 0:21:08.000
<v Speaker 1>that gives a product agnostic level of education for financial advisors.

0:21:08.080 --> 0:21:11.240
<v Speaker 1>We offer the Certificate in blockchain and Digital Assets so

0:21:11.320 --> 0:21:14.200
<v Speaker 1>that advisors get a deep dive not only in understanding

0:21:14.240 --> 0:21:16.960
<v Speaker 1>the tech, but in understanding how to build a portfolio,

0:21:17.119 --> 0:21:19.760
<v Speaker 1>how to serve clients, how to explain all this to clients.

0:21:20.400 --> 0:21:23.159
<v Speaker 1>And UH there's a huge amount of increased demand from

0:21:23.200 --> 0:21:26.119
<v Speaker 1>advisors for this knowledge because their clients are asking like

0:21:26.280 --> 0:21:32.520
<v Speaker 1>never before. Watch this evolution of UH, the attitudes towards

0:21:32.560 --> 0:21:34.960
<v Speaker 1>crypto on Wall Street. You know, back from the days

0:21:34.960 --> 0:21:36.960
<v Speaker 1>when Jamie Diamond was saying he would, you know, basically

0:21:37.000 --> 0:21:40.520
<v Speaker 1>fire anyone who traded crypto at JP Morgan's, you know,

0:21:41.040 --> 0:21:43.360
<v Speaker 1>dipping his toe at JP Morgan, dipping their tone into

0:21:43.400 --> 0:21:47.119
<v Speaker 1>the space. I'm wondering what the sort of mood is

0:21:47.320 --> 0:21:51.480
<v Speaker 1>among those registered advisors that you're talking about. UM. Are

0:21:51.560 --> 0:21:54.919
<v Speaker 1>they skeptics? Are they warming up to the asset class? Uh?

0:21:55.080 --> 0:21:57.520
<v Speaker 1>You know, it's a lot for UH, AN R, I

0:21:57.600 --> 0:21:59.960
<v Speaker 1>A to wrap their head around when you've got complicated

0:22:00.160 --> 0:22:03.040
<v Speaker 1>traditional markets all of a sudden layer on top the

0:22:03.119 --> 0:22:06.320
<v Speaker 1>digital markets and and defying everything else. Are you know,

0:22:06.680 --> 0:22:09.680
<v Speaker 1>is there an embrace of the risk uh sort of

0:22:09.760 --> 0:22:12.439
<v Speaker 1>tolerance among these advisors that you need to to get

0:22:12.480 --> 0:22:16.880
<v Speaker 1>into crypto? There really is. According to the most recent surveys,

0:22:16.960 --> 0:22:20.720
<v Speaker 1>nearly half of all financial advisors personally on bitcoin, but

0:22:20.880 --> 0:22:24.680
<v Speaker 1>only fiftent are recommending it to clients predominantly because their

0:22:24.720 --> 0:22:27.920
<v Speaker 1>firms won't let them. And advisors are realizing that they're

0:22:28.240 --> 0:22:31.760
<v Speaker 1>got their hands tied behind their back because clients want

0:22:31.840 --> 0:22:34.760
<v Speaker 1>to engage, they want to invest, and if the firms

0:22:34.840 --> 0:22:37.040
<v Speaker 1>won't let them, then the clients are going to go

0:22:37.160 --> 0:22:40.920
<v Speaker 1>somewhere else, and that's costing the firm's assets and and

0:22:41.240 --> 0:22:45.280
<v Speaker 1>a U M. It's reducing their fee revenue and helping

0:22:45.359 --> 0:22:48.840
<v Speaker 1>them frankly lose credibility. UM as clients are saying, are

0:22:48.920 --> 0:22:51.040
<v Speaker 1>you that inequated, you're not able to help me with

0:22:51.160 --> 0:22:55.040
<v Speaker 1>the newest asset class on the marketplace. So advisors are

0:22:55.240 --> 0:22:59.080
<v Speaker 1>are recognizing the value and importance of this. They cite

0:22:59.160 --> 0:23:03.040
<v Speaker 1>as the number one reason for investing in bitcoin, the

0:23:03.760 --> 0:23:07.119
<v Speaker 1>non correlation, the fact that this is additive to a

0:23:07.160 --> 0:23:11.200
<v Speaker 1>diversified portfolio. It helps to improve returns while reducing risks.

0:23:11.640 --> 0:23:15.240
<v Speaker 1>And advisors are big fans of portfolio diversification and bitcoin

0:23:15.440 --> 0:23:17.800
<v Speaker 1>is just the latest way to help make that even better.

0:23:18.080 --> 0:23:22.600
<v Speaker 1>Right right, Although, does that non correlation really hold up

0:23:22.600 --> 0:23:24.520
<v Speaker 1>all the time? It seems like, you know, we see

0:23:24.880 --> 0:23:27.760
<v Speaker 1>bitcoin and ethereum really trading as as risky assets like

0:23:27.840 --> 0:23:29.919
<v Speaker 1>stocks these days. But I guess, I guess one day

0:23:29.960 --> 0:23:31.840
<v Speaker 1>the potential and the hope is that they will be

0:23:31.920 --> 0:23:36.040
<v Speaker 1>completely uncorrelated. You're absolutely right. We're beginning to see over

0:23:36.080 --> 0:23:38.680
<v Speaker 1>the past six months exactly what you said, and everybody

0:23:38.800 --> 0:23:41.480
<v Speaker 1>is wondering is this a temporary aberration or is this

0:23:41.640 --> 0:23:45.040
<v Speaker 1>representative of a new long term trend? Jury is out,

0:23:45.080 --> 0:23:46.560
<v Speaker 1>We'll have to wait and see. Well, how much of

0:23:46.640 --> 0:23:48.679
<v Speaker 1>the education that you guys are doing is also though

0:23:48.680 --> 0:23:51.200
<v Speaker 1>about the volatility of it and how investors need to

0:23:51.240 --> 0:23:54.440
<v Speaker 1>be incredibly cautious. I mean we talked about the Labor department.

0:23:54.920 --> 0:23:58.080
<v Speaker 1>They're not so comfortable with what Fidelity might be doing

0:23:58.160 --> 0:24:00.880
<v Speaker 1>here and allowing investors to put bitcoining their own K costs.

0:24:00.920 --> 0:24:03.240
<v Speaker 1>I mean, to be fair, Rick, there is still so

0:24:03.400 --> 0:24:06.040
<v Speaker 1>much for trying to figure out about the crypto world.

0:24:07.119 --> 0:24:09.520
<v Speaker 1>You're absolutely right about that, Carol, But you know what,

0:24:09.680 --> 0:24:12.280
<v Speaker 1>in this particular case with fidelities four O one K,

0:24:12.480 --> 0:24:15.440
<v Speaker 1>the Department of Labor is dead wrong. Think about it.

0:24:15.800 --> 0:24:18.880
<v Speaker 1>We know that the best way to invest is dollar

0:24:18.960 --> 0:24:21.680
<v Speaker 1>cost averaging. Everybody is an agreement on that. You invest

0:24:21.760 --> 0:24:24.480
<v Speaker 1>a little bit of money at a regular interval over many,

0:24:24.560 --> 0:24:28.040
<v Speaker 1>many years. It smooths out the volatility. We also know

0:24:28.640 --> 0:24:31.200
<v Speaker 1>that when you do it this way, you're not investing

0:24:31.240 --> 0:24:35.000
<v Speaker 1>in a lump sum. And we want the most volatile

0:24:35.040 --> 0:24:37.159
<v Speaker 1>investment we can find me to take advantage of the

0:24:37.240 --> 0:24:39.680
<v Speaker 1>price wings. That's what makes dollar cost averaging work. It

0:24:39.680 --> 0:24:41.960
<v Speaker 1>wouldn't make any sense to dollar cost average into a

0:24:42.040 --> 0:24:45.359
<v Speaker 1>bank account. So if bitcoin is an incredibly volatile asset,

0:24:45.480 --> 0:24:47.960
<v Speaker 1>it's ideal for dollar cost averaging, which is what you

0:24:48.080 --> 0:24:50.480
<v Speaker 1>do automatically in a four O one K with the

0:24:50.600 --> 0:24:54.080
<v Speaker 1>tax deductability, the tax referral and free employer match. What

0:24:54.200 --> 0:24:57.400
<v Speaker 1>you're going to discover happening? Hang out, hang out Mike life.

0:24:57.640 --> 0:25:01.800
<v Speaker 1>I know Mike has done to jump in. I get you, Rick,

0:25:01.840 --> 0:25:04.440
<v Speaker 1>but I'm wondering what is the responsible way to approach

0:25:04.480 --> 0:25:06.840
<v Speaker 1>putting bitcoin into a four one K? I mean, would

0:25:06.840 --> 0:25:09.960
<v Speaker 1>you limit allocations? Would you have a big red flashing

0:25:10.320 --> 0:25:12.320
<v Speaker 1>box come up and say this is a risky asset?

0:25:12.400 --> 0:25:14.920
<v Speaker 1>Read all this first, know how? Because this is on

0:25:15.000 --> 0:25:18.040
<v Speaker 1>advised money, right, not the financial advisors you're talking about.

0:25:18.080 --> 0:25:20.159
<v Speaker 1>Most people set their four ones on their own? How

0:25:20.200 --> 0:25:22.080
<v Speaker 1>do you do that responsibly? And just got about thirty

0:25:22.119 --> 0:25:26.600
<v Speaker 1>seconds advise four one K plans are increasingly engaging in

0:25:26.680 --> 0:25:30.240
<v Speaker 1>financial education. To your exact point, I believe you're going

0:25:30.280 --> 0:25:33.080
<v Speaker 1>to find employers using this as a recruitment tool, saying

0:25:33.119 --> 0:25:35.639
<v Speaker 1>to workers are trying to hire, come work for our

0:25:35.680 --> 0:25:37.800
<v Speaker 1>company and we'll provide you bitcoin in your four O

0:25:37.880 --> 0:25:40.640
<v Speaker 1>one K to our match. This is here to stay

0:25:40.680 --> 0:25:43.320
<v Speaker 1>and it's a sea change, big advance for crypto. I'm

0:25:43.320 --> 0:25:45.760
<v Speaker 1>just gonna say, younger generation is asking for flexibility. Right now,

0:25:45.800 --> 0:25:48.600
<v Speaker 1>I'm being able to work. I don't know if it's bitcoin,

0:25:48.720 --> 0:25:50.920
<v Speaker 1>and I wonder if they'll be matching in bitcoin. I'd

0:25:50.960 --> 0:25:55.080
<v Speaker 1>be interesting. Alright, great conversation. Rick Edelman, founder of doc FP,

0:25:55.320 --> 0:25:57.640
<v Speaker 1>joining us on the phone in Virginia. That's a Digital

0:25:57.720 --> 0:26:06.240
<v Speaker 1>Assets Council of Financial Professionals. Bro Mac turn on yaw.

0:26:06.320 --> 0:26:11.280
<v Speaker 1>But you let me drive? No, no, no, all right please,

0:26:11.400 --> 0:26:18.800
<v Speaker 1>i'vels I want to drive. It's a good question. Drive.

0:26:21.600 --> 0:26:28.000
<v Speaker 1>This is the Drive to the clothes well on Bloomberg Radio.

0:26:28.119 --> 0:26:30.640
<v Speaker 1>All right, TikTok, everybody, About ten minutes left to wrap

0:26:30.760 --> 0:26:33.640
<v Speaker 1>up the Friday trading session. Wrap up a wild week.

0:26:33.680 --> 0:26:36.040
<v Speaker 1>We're seeing stocks selling into the clothes here. We're down

0:26:36.080 --> 0:26:39.040
<v Speaker 1>down about four on the NASTAC more than four percent.

0:26:39.160 --> 0:26:40.920
<v Speaker 1>You heard Charlie talk about at three point six percent.

0:26:40.960 --> 0:26:43.919
<v Speaker 1>Lower on the sp Dow off two point seven percent.

0:26:44.000 --> 0:26:46.359
<v Speaker 1>Katy Nixon is with us for the drive to the

0:26:46.400 --> 0:26:48.879
<v Speaker 1>close back with us. In fact, she's chief investment officer

0:26:48.920 --> 0:26:51.640
<v Speaker 1>at Northern Trust Wealth Management. On the phone from Ryan,

0:26:51.680 --> 0:26:54.040
<v Speaker 1>New York. So how many phone calls, Katie, Mike and

0:26:54.160 --> 0:26:55.800
<v Speaker 1>I Mike Reagan and I want to know how many

0:26:55.840 --> 0:26:59.120
<v Speaker 1>calls are you getting from some of your clients? You know, Carol,

0:26:59.200 --> 0:27:00.720
<v Speaker 1>first of all, thank you for having me, But I

0:27:00.760 --> 0:27:03.679
<v Speaker 1>would say was prepared our clients for this kind of volatility.

0:27:03.720 --> 0:27:06.800
<v Speaker 1>We've been anticipating that we would be in this period

0:27:06.840 --> 0:27:09.480
<v Speaker 1>of uncertainty and that would be reflected in lots of

0:27:09.560 --> 0:27:13.520
<v Speaker 1>gyrations both up and down um in markets and bond

0:27:13.600 --> 0:27:15.920
<v Speaker 1>markets and and stock markets, and certainly that has come

0:27:16.280 --> 0:27:18.280
<v Speaker 1>come to bear. I'm just in the last week alone,

0:27:18.320 --> 0:27:22.200
<v Speaker 1>we've had great upside and and um some painful downside

0:27:22.240 --> 0:27:24.800
<v Speaker 1>as we see today. So we've kind of prepared folks

0:27:24.920 --> 0:27:26.920
<v Speaker 1>for this, so we're not getting as many pone calls

0:27:26.960 --> 0:27:30.280
<v Speaker 1>as you would think, Katie. It's funny, you know, uh

0:27:30.680 --> 0:27:32.360
<v Speaker 1>months ago. I don't know, at the end of last year,

0:27:32.400 --> 0:27:37.320
<v Speaker 1>earlier this year, people started sort of whispering that word stagflation, um,

0:27:37.640 --> 0:27:40.760
<v Speaker 1>and immediately they'd be sort of hushed and and and

0:27:40.840 --> 0:27:43.200
<v Speaker 1>someone else would say, no, there's no no chance. The

0:27:43.240 --> 0:27:46.520
<v Speaker 1>consumers too strong, the economy is too strong. Uh, you know.

0:27:46.720 --> 0:27:49.680
<v Speaker 1>But then we see this negative GDP print for the

0:27:49.720 --> 0:27:53.480
<v Speaker 1>first quarter, uh this week, are we is this what

0:27:53.600 --> 0:27:56.359
<v Speaker 1>stagflation looks like? Or is that is that repurchased a

0:27:56.400 --> 0:27:59.200
<v Speaker 1>false signal? Do you think? Well, I think the data

0:27:59.280 --> 0:28:01.760
<v Speaker 1>was pretty annoyed. The honestly, for the first quarter, we

0:28:01.880 --> 0:28:05.439
<v Speaker 1>had that big trade drag um, and then we had

0:28:05.840 --> 0:28:09.080
<v Speaker 1>consumption that did come in pretty pretty good, A little

0:28:09.119 --> 0:28:11.480
<v Speaker 1>bit light, but about pretty good. So the data was

0:28:11.600 --> 0:28:14.200
<v Speaker 1>I wouldn't say conclusive in terms of one way or another,

0:28:14.240 --> 0:28:17.440
<v Speaker 1>but I would say the risks of staglation have risen

0:28:17.640 --> 0:28:21.919
<v Speaker 1>for sure. Um, we have seen some rolling over of data. Um,

0:28:21.920 --> 0:28:24.080
<v Speaker 1>We're gonna get a lot more data next week. Obviously,

0:28:24.119 --> 0:28:26.720
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna get the non farm payroll numbers, We'll get

0:28:26.800 --> 0:28:29.320
<v Speaker 1>some I S M data. Um, we'll hear from the

0:28:29.400 --> 0:28:31.480
<v Speaker 1>Fed clearly. Um, So we're gonna get a lot of

0:28:31.560 --> 0:28:33.200
<v Speaker 1>a lot of stuff coming at us next week. But

0:28:33.280 --> 0:28:37.040
<v Speaker 1>I don't think, um, that's our base case just yet.

0:28:37.200 --> 0:28:39.840
<v Speaker 1>I think we're gonna have to watch really carefully what happens,

0:28:39.920 --> 0:28:42.160
<v Speaker 1>and certainly listening to some of the earnings announcements over

0:28:42.200 --> 0:28:45.240
<v Speaker 1>the last couple of days also present, I would say

0:28:45.320 --> 0:28:47.320
<v Speaker 1>a little bit of a mixed story in terms of

0:28:47.440 --> 0:28:50.120
<v Speaker 1>what the macro environment is. How do you feel about

0:28:50.120 --> 0:28:52.600
<v Speaker 1>big tech right now, after this weekend, after last week?

0:28:53.840 --> 0:28:55.520
<v Speaker 1>You know, Carol, it's such a great question, and you

0:28:55.600 --> 0:28:57.520
<v Speaker 1>know you you were just reporting on what a tough

0:28:57.600 --> 0:29:00.240
<v Speaker 1>day the Nasdaq is having, and clearly it's embar their

0:29:00.320 --> 0:29:05.240
<v Speaker 1>market territory right now, and investors have just really run

0:29:05.320 --> 0:29:08.080
<v Speaker 1>away from these high valuation stocks. I mean, I think

0:29:08.200 --> 0:29:12.360
<v Speaker 1>valuation is very fragile in this rising rate environment here.

0:29:12.760 --> 0:29:14.840
<v Speaker 1>And then at the same time, um, you've got some

0:29:15.000 --> 0:29:18.480
<v Speaker 1>fundamentals that you know, at best are sort of flattening

0:29:18.480 --> 0:29:21.479
<v Speaker 1>out and at worst are showing some declining trends. I mean,

0:29:21.520 --> 0:29:24.479
<v Speaker 1>Netflix is sort of the poster child, joined now by

0:29:24.600 --> 0:29:27.640
<v Speaker 1>Amazon that's really showing a weakening of demand as those

0:29:27.680 --> 0:29:29.600
<v Speaker 1>sort of stay at home stocks get kicked to the

0:29:29.680 --> 0:29:32.840
<v Speaker 1>curb in uh, in favor of the stocks more more

0:29:32.880 --> 0:29:35.680
<v Speaker 1>into the reopening trade, the rere reopening trade, I guess

0:29:35.680 --> 0:29:38.240
<v Speaker 1>I would say, so, well, let me just follow real quickly,

0:29:38.280 --> 0:29:40.840
<v Speaker 1>would you though? See this? I mean, you're right where

0:29:40.880 --> 0:29:43.479
<v Speaker 1>the nastack one hundred um from its top right now

0:29:43.560 --> 0:29:47.520
<v Speaker 1>is down about Is that a buying opportunity? Well, here's

0:29:47.560 --> 0:29:49.960
<v Speaker 1>something which I think is really interesting is our outlook

0:29:50.040 --> 0:29:52.160
<v Speaker 1>is that the economy is actually going to start slowing

0:29:52.200 --> 0:29:55.280
<v Speaker 1>in the back half of two three. And in a

0:29:55.400 --> 0:29:58.520
<v Speaker 1>slowing economy, these are the kinds of stocks that actually

0:29:58.640 --> 0:30:02.120
<v Speaker 1>tend to do well. The have sustainable growth models, they

0:30:02.160 --> 0:30:05.760
<v Speaker 1>have great cash flow. They have fortu spanace sheets, so

0:30:05.920 --> 0:30:08.680
<v Speaker 1>we would we would really advise investors not to sort

0:30:08.720 --> 0:30:11.320
<v Speaker 1>of have to pick sides here between the cyclicals and

0:30:11.560 --> 0:30:13.880
<v Speaker 1>the growth stocks, but really have both in their portfolio,

0:30:13.920 --> 0:30:17.160
<v Speaker 1>because there will come a day when investors prioritize growth

0:30:17.240 --> 0:30:18.960
<v Speaker 1>and will pay more for growth in a slow and

0:30:19.000 --> 0:30:22.479
<v Speaker 1>growth environment. Okay, I know you've been looking keeping an

0:30:22.480 --> 0:30:25.880
<v Speaker 1>eye on mortgage traits. I guess everyone has these days. Uh,

0:30:26.280 --> 0:30:30.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, in tandem with just higher shelter costs. Uh,

0:30:30.160 --> 0:30:34.080
<v Speaker 1>this rip roaring housing market at least up till now.

0:30:34.600 --> 0:30:37.160
<v Speaker 1>Are are we setting ourselves up for a hard landing

0:30:37.240 --> 0:30:39.000
<v Speaker 1>and housing? Do you think? And if if so, how

0:30:39.040 --> 0:30:40.800
<v Speaker 1>does that play out? Is that part of your sort

0:30:40.800 --> 0:30:44.520
<v Speaker 1>of thinking on why we'll see a slow down in growth? Well,

0:30:44.600 --> 0:30:46.600
<v Speaker 1>I would say that that's that's part of our thinking

0:30:46.680 --> 0:30:48.760
<v Speaker 1>why we think inflation is probably going to continue to

0:30:48.760 --> 0:30:52.080
<v Speaker 1>surprise on the upside because housing costs, whether it's rents

0:30:52.280 --> 0:30:54.800
<v Speaker 1>or or or home prices, we think are going to

0:30:54.880 --> 0:30:57.720
<v Speaker 1>remain elevated. And the interesting thing is despite the fact

0:30:57.800 --> 0:31:00.640
<v Speaker 1>that certainly financing costs of gone up. I mean that

0:31:00.760 --> 0:31:04.320
<v Speaker 1>the thirty year mortgage fixed rate mortgages up significantly in

0:31:04.440 --> 0:31:08.160
<v Speaker 1>just a couple of months. There's still such strong fundamental

0:31:08.280 --> 0:31:11.080
<v Speaker 1>demand for housing, and we have a sixply problem, so

0:31:11.200 --> 0:31:13.960
<v Speaker 1>that's going to continue to put upward pressure on housing prices,

0:31:14.160 --> 0:31:17.040
<v Speaker 1>probably not at the pace that we have seen in one,

0:31:17.360 --> 0:31:20.040
<v Speaker 1>but we certainly think housing price inflation is going to

0:31:20.280 --> 0:31:22.719
<v Speaker 1>going to persist for a while until supply catches up

0:31:22.760 --> 0:31:24.960
<v Speaker 1>with this really robust demand. So what do you do

0:31:25.000 --> 0:31:26.520
<v Speaker 1>if you've got some new money to put to work?

0:31:26.760 --> 0:31:28.680
<v Speaker 1>Do you do? You stick it in cash or cash

0:31:28.760 --> 0:31:31.000
<v Speaker 1>like investments at this point and just kind of ride

0:31:31.040 --> 0:31:34.040
<v Speaker 1>this out. You know, Carol, this is going to be

0:31:34.160 --> 0:31:36.680
<v Speaker 1>hard advice for a lot of folks to hear, but

0:31:36.760 --> 0:31:38.840
<v Speaker 1>I would say get invested. I mean, we see the

0:31:38.960 --> 0:31:42.120
<v Speaker 1>bigs so ellly to hear it. Over thirty we see

0:31:42.200 --> 0:31:45.360
<v Speaker 1>prices down significantly. When you have those two things in tandem,

0:31:45.440 --> 0:31:49.560
<v Speaker 1>these very sharp price declines coupled with heightened volatility, for

0:31:49.760 --> 0:31:53.240
<v Speaker 1>long term investors, it's typically a very good time to

0:31:53.280 --> 0:31:56.400
<v Speaker 1>get invested. Now. Clearly though, it's always the hardest time

0:31:56.480 --> 0:31:59.800
<v Speaker 1>to get invested, because there there's certainly fear overwhelming greed

0:31:59.880 --> 0:32:01.880
<v Speaker 1>at this point. Um. But if you have a long

0:32:01.960 --> 0:32:04.640
<v Speaker 1>enough time horizon, history would suggest this is a good

0:32:04.680 --> 0:32:07.920
<v Speaker 1>time to get to your strategic allocations. Talk about fear

0:32:08.040 --> 0:32:10.960
<v Speaker 1>overwhelming greed. I'm looking at the markets now that thatw

0:32:11.000 --> 0:32:13.520
<v Speaker 1>average down almost a thousand points out makes me wonder

0:32:13.560 --> 0:32:15.120
<v Speaker 1>what warm Buffet's going to say, right, because this is

0:32:15.160 --> 0:32:16.480
<v Speaker 1>when he would say, this is when you want to

0:32:16.520 --> 0:32:21.440
<v Speaker 1>be time. But Keatie also, I wonder you know you

0:32:21.520 --> 0:32:26.200
<v Speaker 1>pointed out that investor sentiment is at sort of historic woes.

0:32:26.280 --> 0:32:28.480
<v Speaker 1>I think what you're looking at one measure lowis sance.

0:32:29.720 --> 0:32:32.720
<v Speaker 1>Now that to Carol's point about Buffet, that gets every

0:32:32.800 --> 0:32:36.680
<v Speaker 1>contrarians sort of sputty, senses tingling, and you know they

0:32:36.720 --> 0:32:38.760
<v Speaker 1>want to jump in and and be the hero. Is it?

0:32:38.960 --> 0:32:41.280
<v Speaker 1>Is it that easy when when sentiments that bad? Or

0:32:41.320 --> 0:32:44.120
<v Speaker 1>is there you know or a sentiment right? Yeah? Right,

0:32:44.160 --> 0:32:46.720
<v Speaker 1>well how are you thinking about that? It can always

0:32:46.800 --> 0:32:49.120
<v Speaker 1>get worse. So we're never going to time the market

0:32:49.200 --> 0:32:51.320
<v Speaker 1>perfectly at the bottom, but we can look back at

0:32:51.440 --> 0:32:54.520
<v Speaker 1>history that shows us, generally speaking, these are good times

0:32:54.600 --> 0:32:56.880
<v Speaker 1>for long term investors in very much. I'm glad you

0:32:56.960 --> 0:32:59.320
<v Speaker 1>mentioned more in Buffet because you know the compliment launch

0:32:59.400 --> 0:33:02.479
<v Speaker 1>term investor or UM would probably have that same advice

0:33:02.680 --> 0:33:04.480
<v Speaker 1>you know you want to be buying when everyone else

0:33:04.600 --> 0:33:06.920
<v Speaker 1>is selling, running in when everyone else is running out,

0:33:06.960 --> 0:33:10.240
<v Speaker 1>and certainly not just a sentiment, so not just words,

0:33:10.360 --> 0:33:14.160
<v Speaker 1>but indeeds. Investors are just selling. Retail investors are selling

0:33:14.240 --> 0:33:18.880
<v Speaker 1>stocks and bombs now here at really enormous levels. All right,

0:33:18.920 --> 0:33:21.320
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna leave it there us so great as always

0:33:21.440 --> 0:33:23.719
<v Speaker 1>to check in with you. Kitty Nixon, she's chief investment

0:33:23.760 --> 0:33:26.680
<v Speaker 1>officer for the wealth management business over at Northern Trust,

0:33:26.880 --> 0:33:29.240
<v Speaker 1>on the phone from Rotten, New York. It's sticking with

0:33:29.440 --> 0:33:31.560
<v Speaker 1>me that she's saying. As we're seeing selling into the clothes,

0:33:31.640 --> 0:33:35.800
<v Speaker 1>it can always get worse. But history like right, over time,

0:33:35.840 --> 0:33:37.760
<v Speaker 1>how many market cycles have you seen? We are way

0:33:37.960 --> 0:33:39.840
<v Speaker 1>higher than where we were how many years ago, you

0:33:39.880 --> 0:33:41.440
<v Speaker 1>know what I mean? Five years ago, ten years ago,

0:33:41.520 --> 0:33:44.160
<v Speaker 1>twenty years ago. So just a little bit of a reminder.

0:33:45.360 --> 0:33:48.160
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast

0:33:48.240 --> 0:33:51.200
<v Speaker 1>on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, and you can

0:33:51.240 --> 0:33:53.360
<v Speaker 1>also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern

0:33:53.440 --> 0:33:56.080
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0:33:56.080 --> 0:34:01.520
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Global News with the d