WEBVTT - IBM CEO Arvind Krishna: Creating Smarter Business with AI and Quantum

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<v Speaker 1>Hello, Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, and you're listening to Smart

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<v Speaker 1>Talks with IBM. This season, we've been bringing you stories

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<v Speaker 1>of how IBM works with its clients to solve complex problems,

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<v Speaker 1>like helping Loreel reimagine how scientists approach cosmetic formulation, or

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<v Speaker 1>enabling Scuderia FERRARIHP to connect with fans in new ways.

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<v Speaker 1>But in this episode, we're going to zoom out and

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<v Speaker 1>look at the bigger picture. Earlier this month, I had

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<v Speaker 1>the chance to meet the person who's shaping IBM's future.

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<v Speaker 1>It's CEO and Chairman Arvind Krishna. We sat down in

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<v Speaker 1>front of an intimate live audience at IBM's New York

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<v Speaker 1>City office and talked about his uncanny ability to anticipate

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<v Speaker 1>where technology is heading, the future of AI, and his

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<v Speaker 1>passion for quantum computing, which he says is as revolutionary

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<v Speaker 1>as a semiconductor. Thank you everyone, Thank you Arvin. You're

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<v Speaker 1>a difficult man to schedule for one of these things,

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<v Speaker 1>so we're enormously pleased that you could join us. Start

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<v Speaker 1>with a. I have all these cousins, two cousins who

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<v Speaker 1>work for IBM their entire career. I would ask them

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<v Speaker 1>what does IBM do? And they would always give me different, confusing,

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<v Speaker 1>complicated answers. What's your answer, what's your simple answer to

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<v Speaker 1>that question.

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<v Speaker 2>IBM's role is to help our clients improve their business

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<v Speaker 2>by deploying technology. That means you're not ever gated to

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<v Speaker 2>one product. It is what makes sense at that time,

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<v Speaker 2>but it is about improving their business, not just giving

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<v Speaker 2>them a commodity. Then to go to the next layer,

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<v Speaker 2>I would say we help them through a mixture of

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<v Speaker 2>hybrid cloud and artificial intelligence and a taste of quantum

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<v Speaker 2>coming down the road is kind of where I would

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<v Speaker 2>take it. That's that's what IBM is.

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<v Speaker 1>So you are technology agnostic in some sense.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm product agnostic, productnoy I'm not technology agnostic.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, But if I twenty five years from now, IBM

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<v Speaker 1>could be doing things that would be unrecognizable to contemporary IBM,

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<v Speaker 1>it is completely possible.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it could be there in twenty five years from now.

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<v Speaker 2>The only software IBM does his open source. It could

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<v Speaker 2>be the only computing you do is quantum computers. And

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<v Speaker 2>if I add those two people today say that's not

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<v Speaker 2>the IEM of today.

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<v Speaker 1>Is it even simpler to say you just IBM solves

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<v Speaker 1>problems at the highest technical level.

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<v Speaker 2>If you say highest technical level, yesh, Like the guy

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<v Speaker 2>who invented the bar code. He was solving a problem

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<v Speaker 2>retailers wanted to scale. Many of you wy not know

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<v Speaker 2>it was an IBM or who invented the bar code,

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<v Speaker 2>by the way, not somebody who was a PhD. Not

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<v Speaker 2>somebody who was a deep researcher. I think it was

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<v Speaker 2>actually a field engineer. Oh really yeah, And lasers were out,

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<v Speaker 2>and you could use lasers to scan things, but they

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<v Speaker 2>could be upside down, they could be muddy, they could

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<v Speaker 2>be partly scraped off. And he came up with the

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<v Speaker 2>idea of the bar code and that changed inventory management forever.

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<v Speaker 1>But the world needs to know that IBM invented the Parker.

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<v Speaker 1>You guys should do a better job. I'm deciding that.

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<v Speaker 2>I am sure our CMO will listen to this podcast

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<v Speaker 2>and we'll get that idea.

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<v Speaker 1>Tell me you started at Thomas Watson Research Center. What

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<v Speaker 1>were you doing when you first started it, IBM.

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<v Speaker 2>I started in nineteen ninety and that was the era

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<v Speaker 2>in which computers and networking but beginning to converge, And

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<v Speaker 2>for the first five years I was actually building networks

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<v Speaker 2>so let's remember this was pre laptops. Laptops came in

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<v Speaker 2>ninety two or ninety three, but it was clear to

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<v Speaker 2>us that they were going to come supportable computing, and

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<v Speaker 2>I spent my first five years building what today you

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<v Speaker 2>would call Wi Fi. We used to have these debates

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<v Speaker 2>can be builded? It's got to be small enough. I mean, like,

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<v Speaker 2>it can't be more than one hundred grams was kind

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<v Speaker 2>of our thought, because if it's more than that, you're

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<v Speaker 2>on a three thousand grand laptop. Wold anybody put this on?

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<v Speaker 2>And the debate used to be, why would anybody want

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<v Speaker 2>to walk around untethered? Won't you want to attach a

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<v Speaker 2>big thick cable into it and sit down? Because that

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<v Speaker 2>was the thought, that's how terminals worked. And I spent

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<v Speaker 2>five years having a lot of fun, building many iterations

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<v Speaker 2>of those and making progress on that.

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<v Speaker 1>If I had a conversation with your nineteen ninety self

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<v Speaker 1>about what the next thirty years were going to look like,

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<v Speaker 1>is it possible to reconstruct what you were What were

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<v Speaker 1>your predictions at that age about where the company, where

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<v Speaker 1>the industry was going.

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<v Speaker 2>It was more about where technology was going to go,

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<v Speaker 2>I would say, than where industry would go. I would

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<v Speaker 2>have told you that networking and computers would fuse in

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<v Speaker 2>nineteen ninety that was a weird thought that some researchers held.

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<v Speaker 2>By the late nineties, that was obvious that it became

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<v Speaker 2>the Internet. I would have told you that I believe

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<v Speaker 2>that video streaming will be the prime way people will

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<v Speaker 2>consume video. You would have said that in nineteen ninety. Absolutely,

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<v Speaker 2>Now that didn't take five years. That took twenty. But

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<v Speaker 2>it happened because you could do it technically, except it

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<v Speaker 2>just too expensive and too cumbersome. And if you've been

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<v Speaker 2>in technology, like in nineteen eighty five, I would have

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<v Speaker 2>told you the Internet is old because when I went

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<v Speaker 2>to grad school, every one of us had a those days,

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<v Speaker 2>an Apple, Mac or Lisa on our desks. They're all

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<v Speaker 2>connected by a network. We're happily sending email to people

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<v Speaker 2>all around the country. We were doing file transfer. So okay,

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<v Speaker 2>you had to be a little bit more aware of

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<v Speaker 2>the technology. And it didn't have a browser. That took

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<v Speaker 2>ten years to get the browser that took five years

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<v Speaker 2>to be a business. But when you see the speed

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<v Speaker 2>and the pace of technology in usually ten or fifteen years,

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<v Speaker 2>the cost point and the consumerization is at a scale

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<v Speaker 2>that you couldn't imagine ten years ago until you've seen

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<v Speaker 2>a few o those sites.

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<v Speaker 1>Wait, did you make the leap to Sorry, this is fascinating,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm curious, but how far did you take? That's a

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<v Speaker 1>really fundamental thing you have gotten right in nineteen ninety

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<v Speaker 1>I think.

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<v Speaker 2>You we were pretty convinced that what we used to

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<v Speaker 2>think of as linear television or broadcast would become digitized.

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<v Speaker 2>That was a given two with cable already the preponderance

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<v Speaker 2>of how people got it that if you put packet

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<v Speaker 2>television over cable, then that becomes the way it will go.

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<v Speaker 2>I fundamentally believed, actually way back eighty seven, that on

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<v Speaker 2>demand movies would become the way people would consume movies.

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<v Speaker 2>So those were all things that I could have predicted.

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<v Speaker 2>Nine didn't personally work on all those. I mean, after networking,

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<v Speaker 2>I moved on to doing other things. But those were

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<v Speaker 2>easy to predict.

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<v Speaker 1>If you had a conversation in those years with someone

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<v Speaker 1>in the television industry and you gave them those predictions,

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<v Speaker 1>did they see it? Were they convinced of this?

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<v Speaker 2>I'm actually going to take it back to wireless networking.

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<v Speaker 2>I think One of the reasons I do what I

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<v Speaker 2>do today, which is at the intersection of business and technology,

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<v Speaker 2>is because of what I saw happened with Wi Fi.

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<v Speaker 2>So you build these wireless networks and then you say, hey,

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<v Speaker 2>the market's going to be millions, tens of millions, billions

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<v Speaker 2>of users, and the business looks at it and says,

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<v Speaker 2>we think the market is confined to warehouse workers doing inventory.

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<v Speaker 2>You can look at them and say, why not people

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<v Speaker 2>in their homes because they could imagine outside how people

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<v Speaker 2>bought things at that time. And so I became convinced

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<v Speaker 2>that I can't just help invent it. I got to

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<v Speaker 2>think about, now, how do you market it? To whom

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<v Speaker 2>do you market it? What are their routs? How do

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<v Speaker 2>you make it easy enough? And that was probably I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm making it simple now. That was probably a five

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<v Speaker 2>to ten year evolution of myself in those days.

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<v Speaker 1>You know what this reminds me of when the telephone

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<v Speaker 1>is invented in the eighteen seventies, It doesn't take off

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<v Speaker 1>for forty years because the people running a telephone business

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<v Speaker 1>they didn't and they didn't want women using it because

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<v Speaker 1>they were worried that women would gossip with their friends.

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<v Speaker 1>They didn't understand that that's actually what telephone is, right,

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<v Speaker 1>it's an exact parallel.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes it is, you see it again and again.

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<v Speaker 1>What is the source of that blindness? So there's a gap,

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<v Speaker 1>in other words, between the invention, the technological achievement, and

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<v Speaker 1>the social understanding of the technology. Why is there such

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<v Speaker 1>a gap?

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<v Speaker 2>I think that the gap is fundamental and rooted in

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of academic disciplines. So even channeling some of

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<v Speaker 2>your work, though you don't intend it to be used

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<v Speaker 2>that way, you can say a lot of things that

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<v Speaker 2>data driven. If it is data driven, then by definition,

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<v Speaker 2>you're looking at history. If you're looking at history, that

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<v Speaker 2>means you're looking at exact buying patterns. If you look

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<v Speaker 2>at existing buying patterns, you forget. All of those who

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<v Speaker 2>have created massive value in time have all created markets,

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<v Speaker 2>meaning they've all created new markets. And I think that

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<v Speaker 2>is why the world is fascinated with people like Steve Jobs,

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<v Speaker 2>for example, he imagined a market that didn't exist. So

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<v Speaker 2>I think that is the gap. And then if you

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<v Speaker 2>can get the technology the business acumen Scaler company and

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<v Speaker 2>that imagination of making the market is how you create

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<v Speaker 2>I think massive value. You got to get all three

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<v Speaker 2>pieces going.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not enough. In other words, you were thinking, it's

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<v Speaker 1>not enough to invent something new, I need to make

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<v Speaker 1>a business case for it simultaneously, and that that's what

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<v Speaker 1>gets you thinking along the path that leads you to

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<v Speaker 1>this job.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh yeah, I'll tell you if you had met or

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<v Speaker 2>when the nineteen ninety four and you had talked about

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<v Speaker 2>the stock market or about a balance sheet, or looked

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<v Speaker 2>at you like, Okay, I got though those words are,

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<v Speaker 2>I can parse them. I have no I what they are.

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<v Speaker 2>I have no intuition on what they are. I couldn't

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<v Speaker 2>tell you why it's relevant or why it's not. But

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<v Speaker 2>then you began to think, Okay, why do companies get

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<v Speaker 2>higher values? Okay, that's the stock What does that capture

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<v Speaker 2>if I have to spend working capital and that's the

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<v Speaker 2>balance sheet? Well, so you learn. I mean, I figure,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm willing to learn. I'm willing to read either. The

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<v Speaker 2>best way I read is to go to balance sheets.

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<v Speaker 2>Here you can read the book. It's pretty dawn dry.

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<v Speaker 2>Much easier to go talk to a financial expert who's

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<v Speaker 2>around the corner. And people are if you're curious about

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<v Speaker 2>what they do, they're really happy to share their expertise,

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<v Speaker 2>and over time you learn more and more and they

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<v Speaker 2>actually become part of your network within the company. And

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<v Speaker 2>that's how you can both learn and evolve yourself and

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<v Speaker 2>actually gain the extra skills you nere.

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<v Speaker 1>To be a successful business leader. Do you have to

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<v Speaker 1>unlearn or deviate from some of the things that made

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<v Speaker 1>you a successful science.

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<v Speaker 2>I actually believe the exactly opposite. But use what you're

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<v Speaker 2>really good at as a foundation, but don't make it

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<v Speaker 2>the only thing you use. So then how do you

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<v Speaker 2>add the other skills? And there's many ways. You can

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<v Speaker 2>have people that you trust who help you out those skills.

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<v Speaker 2>You can gain some intuition, maybe not the depth of expertise.

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<v Speaker 2>I want to be deeper on certain areas of electrical

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<v Speaker 2>engineering than I'm ever going to be, let's say, in

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<v Speaker 2>finance or marketing. But I want to be curious about

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<v Speaker 2>those I don't want to dismiss them. So you build

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<v Speaker 2>on your skills, and then you have to say, but

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<v Speaker 2>I need a complete and holistic view, So I'm going

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<v Speaker 2>to be a little deep, not very deep, in all

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<v Speaker 2>of those. And you've also got to learn to trust

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<v Speaker 2>your intuition a little bit.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, but I forgot a question that I wanted to

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<v Speaker 1>ask about about the predictions of nineteen ninety arvand what

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<v Speaker 1>did you get wrong?

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<v Speaker 2>All lots of things. I think that people were thinking

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<v Speaker 2>that but in those days, and it started my phrase,

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<v Speaker 2>but I'll come back to it. I think most people

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<v Speaker 2>thought that the communication companies would turn out to be

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<v Speaker 2>the winners of how networking got carried. If you all

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<v Speaker 2>think through the nineties of the investments that were being

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<v Speaker 2>done by let's not take the names of all of

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<v Speaker 2>the telecom carriers. Didn't turn out to be the case. Actually,

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<v Speaker 2>I think that's the business model case. The reason is

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<v Speaker 2>they all had in their heads that you can charge

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<v Speaker 2>people by the minute.

0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:34.760
<v Speaker 1>Because they had been doing that already, because.

0:12:34.520 --> 0:12:38.160
<v Speaker 2>They'd been doing that for one hundred years. Yeah, And

0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:40.560
<v Speaker 2>in the end, the winners the networking were those who

0:12:40.559 --> 0:12:43.640
<v Speaker 2>said flat price thirty bucks a month or fifty bucks

0:12:43.640 --> 0:12:46.800
<v Speaker 2>a month or whatever, and that was just too much

0:12:46.800 --> 0:12:48.400
<v Speaker 2>of a leap for them.

0:12:48.600 --> 0:12:52.079
<v Speaker 1>I think it's as simples, that is the most parsimonious

0:12:52.120 --> 0:12:54.440
<v Speaker 1>explanation for why you think they failed.

0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:56.839
<v Speaker 2>No, there were a couple of other more technical things.

0:12:56.920 --> 0:12:59.719
<v Speaker 2>One was written by somebody who was actually inside one

0:12:59.720 --> 0:13:03.120
<v Speaker 2>of these outcom companies, and he leveled his article the

0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:07.000
<v Speaker 2>Rise of the Stupid Network. So telephone people believe that

0:13:07.040 --> 0:13:10.240
<v Speaker 2>the network should be really smart. The end device is dumb.

0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:13.079
<v Speaker 2>If you think about the telephone, telephone is dumb. It

0:13:13.120 --> 0:13:15.560
<v Speaker 2>doesn't actually do anything. It's just about the relays. And

0:13:15.640 --> 0:13:18.079
<v Speaker 2>the network is smart. It routes you, it figures out

0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:23.400
<v Speaker 2>where to send it, it does echocaculation backwards. And the

0:13:23.440 --> 0:13:25.920
<v Speaker 2>current Internet is completely dumb with the inside. It just

0:13:25.960 --> 0:13:27.920
<v Speaker 2>takes the bits and shoves them out the other end.

0:13:28.320 --> 0:13:30.960
<v Speaker 2>All the intelligence is the computer at the end. That's

0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:34.280
<v Speaker 2>probably a bit more of a found explanation, but business

0:13:34.280 --> 0:13:35.720
<v Speaker 2>model didn't help them either.

0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:39.000
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. Wait, did nineteen ninety r of End think that

0:13:39.080 --> 0:13:42.400
<v Speaker 1>the network should be dumb or smart?

0:13:43.800 --> 0:13:46.480
<v Speaker 2>I'm not sure I thought about it deeply. But everything

0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:49.640
<v Speaker 2>I worked on the network was dumb. The network movements.

0:13:49.720 --> 0:13:53.680
<v Speaker 2>That's all I did. Yeah, because even I in those

0:13:53.760 --> 0:13:56.959
<v Speaker 2>days understood I couldn't imagine all the applications. So if

0:13:57.040 --> 0:13:59.800
<v Speaker 2>all you do is voice, maybe the network can be smart.

0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:01.520
<v Speaker 2>But if you're doing all those other things, how could

0:14:01.520 --> 0:14:04.320
<v Speaker 2>the network possibly know all those things that be smart

0:14:04.320 --> 0:14:04.600
<v Speaker 2>for it?

0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:08.760
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so you've been COO for five years.

0:14:08.880 --> 0:14:09.360
<v Speaker 2>Five years.

0:14:09.720 --> 0:14:12.480
<v Speaker 1>Wait, so in your five year increment, what was your

0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:16.360
<v Speaker 1>most misunderstood decision where you ended up being right but

0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:17.520
<v Speaker 1>everyone thought you were crazy.

0:14:18.160 --> 0:14:22.080
<v Speaker 2>Twenty and eighteen, I proposed to our boat that we

0:14:22.120 --> 0:14:26.560
<v Speaker 2>should buy a company called rad Hat. IBM does proprietary,

0:14:26.560 --> 0:14:30.160
<v Speaker 2>but that was open source. The stock fell fifteen percent

0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:33.640
<v Speaker 2>of the day we announced it, and today most people

0:14:33.640 --> 0:14:35.600
<v Speaker 2>will turn around and say, this is the most successful

0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:39.320
<v Speaker 2>acquisition that IBM has done in all time, and probably

0:14:39.360 --> 0:14:44.080
<v Speaker 2>the most successful software acquisition in history. So it was

0:14:44.080 --> 0:14:47.600
<v Speaker 2>completely misunderstood because people didn't see that you actually did

0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:51.960
<v Speaker 2>need a platform that could make you agnostic across multiple

0:14:52.320 --> 0:14:56.280
<v Speaker 2>cloud platforms, across on premise environments. So you've got to

0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:58.640
<v Speaker 2>have a view of what it could be, and we

0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:01.440
<v Speaker 2>drove it to a place where I think today it

0:15:01.520 --> 0:15:03.320
<v Speaker 2>stands as the leader in its space.

0:15:04.080 --> 0:15:07.080
<v Speaker 1>So how did you come to believe this heretical notion?

0:15:09.280 --> 0:15:13.680
<v Speaker 2>So Cloud was happening, you could ask yourself the question,

0:15:14.200 --> 0:15:18.720
<v Speaker 2>should we spend a lot of capital and chase Cloud? Okay,

0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:23.120
<v Speaker 2>you're five years to be generous, maybe longer behind at

0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:26.520
<v Speaker 2>that point the two leaders, So you could spend maybe

0:15:26.560 --> 0:15:30.520
<v Speaker 2>ten billion a year and a lot of businesses tend

0:15:30.560 --> 0:15:32.800
<v Speaker 2>to do that. Okay, it's so important, it's going to

0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:36.320
<v Speaker 2>be half the market. I can't not. My view was

0:15:36.760 --> 0:15:38.800
<v Speaker 2>we'll always be five years behind. They're not dumb and

0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:41.440
<v Speaker 2>they're not slow. So if you're going to be there,

0:15:41.520 --> 0:15:44.920
<v Speaker 2>you're going to be best case, a distant third, worst

0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:47.000
<v Speaker 2>case maybe a fourth or a fifth. Because there's Chinese

0:15:47.000 --> 0:15:50.600
<v Speaker 2>also in the mix, why would you do that instead?

0:15:51.000 --> 0:15:53.600
<v Speaker 2>Is there a different space you can occupy instead of

0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:57.000
<v Speaker 2>competing with them? Can you become their best partner, in

0:15:57.040 --> 0:16:00.640
<v Speaker 2>which case you write their success. If I want to

0:16:00.680 --> 0:16:03.080
<v Speaker 2>be the best partner, then what are the set of

0:16:03.120 --> 0:16:06.600
<v Speaker 2>technologies that would be useful so you can flip The

0:16:06.640 --> 0:16:10.160
<v Speaker 2>problem is how I thought about it.

0:16:11.000 --> 0:16:14.680
<v Speaker 1>How hard was it to convince people needed convincing before

0:16:14.720 --> 0:16:16.480
<v Speaker 1>that acquisition.

0:16:16.920 --> 0:16:21.920
<v Speaker 2>Probably six to nine months of breaking my head with

0:16:22.000 --> 0:16:28.160
<v Speaker 2>no success, and then six months of building the momentum

0:16:28.440 --> 0:16:32.160
<v Speaker 2>once a couple of people began to see it.

0:16:32.640 --> 0:16:39.040
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, you're very persistent, Oh yes, very Would you describe

0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:40.400
<v Speaker 1>that as you defining trade?

0:16:41.760 --> 0:16:45.600
<v Speaker 2>I am very persistent and I'm very patient. I'm also

0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:49.280
<v Speaker 2>probably very impatient, but I'm not a yeller and screamer.

0:16:49.360 --> 0:16:53.000
<v Speaker 2>I don't rant and rave. But as I say, if

0:16:53.040 --> 0:16:56.400
<v Speaker 2>I think we're going to do something, I can be

0:16:56.480 --> 0:16:59.720
<v Speaker 2>remarkably stubborn about it. We will do it.

0:17:00.240 --> 0:17:02.120
<v Speaker 1>If I got your family, put them up on stage

0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:04.800
<v Speaker 1>and asked them this exact question, is this how they

0:17:04.800 --> 0:17:05.320
<v Speaker 1>would answer?

0:17:05.320 --> 0:17:11.359
<v Speaker 2>As well, they will tell you I'm very stubborn. They

0:17:11.440 --> 0:17:13.520
<v Speaker 2>might not agree that I don't try and drave.

0:17:15.840 --> 0:17:19.440
<v Speaker 1>Well, you know, one of the principal observations of psychology

0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:22.960
<v Speaker 1>is that our home self and our work self are uncorrelated.

0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:26.040
<v Speaker 1>Once you know that, you know everything. Wait, I'm curious

0:17:26.240 --> 0:17:28.840
<v Speaker 1>one last question about that. How long does it take

0:17:28.880 --> 0:17:31.720
<v Speaker 1>for you to be vindicated with red Hat?

0:17:32.720 --> 0:17:37.679
<v Speaker 2>Probably took five maybe four years, I think by twenty

0:17:37.840 --> 0:17:40.400
<v Speaker 2>twenty three. So twenty eighteen we announced it, we took

0:17:40.440 --> 0:17:42.320
<v Speaker 2>the big start crop, it took a year to close

0:17:42.359 --> 0:17:46.719
<v Speaker 2>twenty nineteen, so if our count not that I'm counting

0:17:46.760 --> 0:17:56.160
<v Speaker 2>that much, but July ninth, twenty nineteen as the day

0:17:56.200 --> 0:17:58.440
<v Speaker 2>that we got all the approvals. Took another a few

0:17:58.440 --> 0:18:02.840
<v Speaker 2>weeks to actually transfer them. But from there, probably twenty

0:18:02.880 --> 0:18:05.119
<v Speaker 2>twenty three, the world woke up and said, hey, you

0:18:05.119 --> 0:18:07.359
<v Speaker 2>guys deserve credit for this was actually a great move,

0:18:07.800 --> 0:18:08.600
<v Speaker 2>not a bad move.

0:18:08.760 --> 0:18:13.000
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, but this is it's interesting because this is a

0:18:13.000 --> 0:18:17.040
<v Speaker 1>real gamble. If it doesn't work, you're not sitting in

0:18:17.080 --> 0:18:18.080
<v Speaker 1>this chair right now. Right.

0:18:18.200 --> 0:18:21.520
<v Speaker 2>Oh, for sure. There were two steps. One if it

0:18:21.560 --> 0:18:23.720
<v Speaker 2>was obviously not going to work, I wouldn't have been selected.

0:18:24.240 --> 0:18:26.680
<v Speaker 2>And two if it hadn't worked after that, that's why

0:18:26.840 --> 0:18:28.080
<v Speaker 2>CEOs can be short lived.

0:18:28.560 --> 0:18:30.680
<v Speaker 1>Can I ask you, Sif a personal question? How much

0:18:30.720 --> 0:18:32.200
<v Speaker 1>sleep did you lose over this.

0:18:35.480 --> 0:18:38.879
<v Speaker 2>Once we had made the decision? None?

0:18:41.560 --> 0:18:43.280
<v Speaker 1>Can you give me pointers on how you do this?

0:18:43.320 --> 0:18:46.560
<v Speaker 1>Because I wake up at two am every morning and

0:18:46.600 --> 0:18:48.719
<v Speaker 1>I over much more trivial things than this.

0:18:49.200 --> 0:18:51.159
<v Speaker 2>Once a week, I'll probably wake up at two or

0:18:51.160 --> 0:18:54.520
<v Speaker 2>three in the morning. I acknowledge it because I wake

0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:56.800
<v Speaker 2>up and my brain is running, and once it's running,

0:18:56.840 --> 0:18:58.680
<v Speaker 2>I don't even try to go back to sleep. I mean, okay,

0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:01.959
<v Speaker 2>get up and do work and make yourself productive. You're

0:19:01.960 --> 0:19:03.919
<v Speaker 2>gonna be tired before in the afternoon. That's fine, you'll

0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:07.080
<v Speaker 2>sleep well that night. I have actually learned a long

0:19:07.160 --> 0:19:10.240
<v Speaker 2>time back. You can't do it across. You can't do

0:19:10.280 --> 0:19:14.000
<v Speaker 2>it early morning, through the day and late at night.

0:19:14.359 --> 0:19:17.000
<v Speaker 2>So an hour before I think I want to go

0:19:17.040 --> 0:19:20.240
<v Speaker 2>to bed, I will actually change what I'm doing, meaning

0:19:20.640 --> 0:19:25.320
<v Speaker 2>I will start reading something interesting to me but completely

0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:28.680
<v Speaker 2>outside the scope of work. I may read a biography,

0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:34.600
<v Speaker 2>I might read somebody who's spontificating on demographics and population.

0:19:35.320 --> 0:19:37.520
<v Speaker 2>But I won't read it on leadership because that's too close.

0:19:37.600 --> 0:19:39.920
<v Speaker 2>Now twenty years ago I might have that would have

0:19:39.960 --> 0:19:44.080
<v Speaker 2>been different. I won't read it on deep signs because

0:19:44.080 --> 0:19:45.840
<v Speaker 2>that's too close to what we do for a living.

0:19:46.080 --> 0:19:49.120
<v Speaker 2>So it's got to be outside the things that will

0:19:49.160 --> 0:19:52.800
<v Speaker 2>make my brain churn about work. But it's got to

0:19:52.840 --> 0:19:56.439
<v Speaker 2>be something that is dense enough to occupy your brain,

0:19:57.080 --> 0:19:58.360
<v Speaker 2>so it shift gears.

0:19:59.240 --> 0:20:00.960
<v Speaker 1>I want to do. It's just for a moment. The

0:20:01.000 --> 0:20:04.080
<v Speaker 1>red hat thing. Was there someone or is there someone

0:20:04.280 --> 0:20:06.640
<v Speaker 1>who you went to and explained the logic of this

0:20:07.080 --> 0:20:10.680
<v Speaker 1>and they saw the logic of this, and that made

0:20:10.680 --> 0:20:11.560
<v Speaker 1>a big difference to you.

0:20:13.280 --> 0:20:16.919
<v Speaker 2>Getting their support made a big difference. You'd be surprised.

0:20:17.040 --> 0:20:23.880
<v Speaker 2>I'm remarkably open inside. I mean, when I have are

0:20:23.920 --> 0:20:26.880
<v Speaker 2>there probably a half dozen to a dozen people inside

0:20:26.920 --> 0:20:29.560
<v Speaker 2>that I'll talk to and I'll be completely open about, Hey,

0:20:29.600 --> 0:20:31.919
<v Speaker 2>this is what I'm thinking. I don't know. Here are

0:20:31.960 --> 0:20:33.879
<v Speaker 2>the risks. I'm open about those Also, it's not just

0:20:33.920 --> 0:20:37.000
<v Speaker 2>the benefits. I think the other risks, but I think

0:20:37.040 --> 0:20:39.840
<v Speaker 2>the benefits outweigh the risks. I talk about that to

0:20:39.840 --> 0:20:44.960
<v Speaker 2>people all the time. So whether for example, I mean

0:20:45.040 --> 0:20:48.520
<v Speaker 2>i'll take names. I think our current chro O Nicol

0:20:48.520 --> 0:20:51.360
<v Speaker 2>who introduced us, she has been in that loop since

0:20:51.400 --> 0:20:54.719
<v Speaker 2>at least twenty fifteen. For me, if I look at

0:20:54.720 --> 0:20:58.080
<v Speaker 2>our CFO Jim Cavanaugh, he's been in that loop probably

0:20:58.080 --> 0:21:01.720
<v Speaker 2>since twenty thirteen. And IBM's will probably wonder, what the

0:21:01.720 --> 0:21:04.080
<v Speaker 2>hell intersection do you guys have? It didn't when I

0:21:04.080 --> 0:21:07.400
<v Speaker 2>talked about learning finance. I will go to him and say, hey,

0:21:07.440 --> 0:21:09.760
<v Speaker 2>explain this to me. I don't understand why it's like this,

0:21:10.680 --> 0:21:14.040
<v Speaker 2>And to me it's okay, use a patient, you go learn.

0:21:14.680 --> 0:21:17.000
<v Speaker 2>If I think about many of the people in the

0:21:17.040 --> 0:21:20.720
<v Speaker 2>software business, they've been having these discussions with me for always.

0:21:21.440 --> 0:21:25.959
<v Speaker 2>I mean, now I'll acknowledge I can get probably impatient

0:21:26.160 --> 0:21:29.480
<v Speaker 2>and a servig, but it's meant to be a discussion.

0:21:29.560 --> 0:21:31.600
<v Speaker 2>I mean, like, let's have the discussion. If you have

0:21:31.640 --> 0:21:33.760
<v Speaker 2>a strong point of view, I got it. Nobody has

0:21:33.800 --> 0:21:36.880
<v Speaker 2>a will be perfectly correct, but I always look for

0:21:37.480 --> 0:21:40.080
<v Speaker 2>if you have a strong point of view. That means

0:21:40.080 --> 0:21:43.040
<v Speaker 2>it's from a different perspective than mine. So what do

0:21:43.119 --> 0:21:46.159
<v Speaker 2>I learn from that? Is the question which helps to

0:21:46.200 --> 0:21:50.480
<v Speaker 2>improve my point of view? That makes sense. I actually

0:21:50.520 --> 0:21:52.440
<v Speaker 2>think that each person should try to build a community

0:21:52.440 --> 0:21:55.879
<v Speaker 2>of one hundred people inside your enterprise and a hundred

0:21:55.920 --> 0:21:59.520
<v Speaker 2>outside that you can call up. I have no hesitation.

0:22:00.200 --> 0:22:03.840
<v Speaker 2>Somebody introduced me to a long time back, to a

0:22:03.920 --> 0:22:06.440
<v Speaker 2>CEO on the outside. I called them up all the

0:22:06.480 --> 0:22:07.960
<v Speaker 2>time and say, hey, do you have five minutes. I'm

0:22:08.000 --> 0:22:11.200
<v Speaker 2>just thinking about something. This way, the CEO of red

0:22:11.240 --> 0:22:14.240
<v Speaker 2>At who left IBM in twenty twenty one, we probably

0:22:14.280 --> 0:22:17.159
<v Speaker 2>talk every two or three months on a random topic.

0:22:17.440 --> 0:22:19.919
<v Speaker 2>Ony way, it becomes mutual. He'll asks me my opinion

0:22:19.960 --> 0:22:22.480
<v Speaker 2>on some things. Now, by the way, three or four

0:22:22.480 --> 0:22:25.800
<v Speaker 2>times he might do something different, but he wants my opinion.

0:22:26.600 --> 0:22:27.600
<v Speaker 2>Tour the other way around.

0:22:27.760 --> 0:22:29.520
<v Speaker 1>If I gave you my phone number, can I be

0:22:29.600 --> 0:22:32.360
<v Speaker 1>on that list? I would just be fascinating. I don't

0:22:32.400 --> 0:22:33.480
<v Speaker 1>know if I can help you, but I would be

0:22:33.520 --> 0:22:34.520
<v Speaker 1>really fine to get the call.

0:22:34.520 --> 0:22:36.080
<v Speaker 2>Sure you can. Do you think that we can ever

0:22:36.119 --> 0:22:41.120
<v Speaker 2>succeed unless people who influence opinions say things about us.

0:22:42.000 --> 0:22:45.840
<v Speaker 2>So you may not think deeply about maybe the physics

0:22:45.840 --> 0:22:50.240
<v Speaker 2>of quantum computing, but would you think deeply about why

0:22:50.280 --> 0:22:53.040
<v Speaker 2>and what moment may make it much more attractive to

0:22:53.080 --> 0:22:56.320
<v Speaker 2>a large audience. Sure you would. You'd be far better

0:22:56.400 --> 0:22:59.080
<v Speaker 2>as a thinker on that topic. And probably most of

0:22:59.119 --> 0:22:59.880
<v Speaker 2>the people.

0:23:00.600 --> 0:23:02.040
<v Speaker 1>I was thinking, you know, when you were making your

0:23:02.040 --> 0:23:07.879
<v Speaker 1>comments about your nineteen ninety self and streaming, that the

0:23:08.600 --> 0:23:11.919
<v Speaker 1>rational thing would have been for there have been a

0:23:12.040 --> 0:23:17.560
<v Speaker 1>reserved board seat for every television network from someone from

0:23:17.560 --> 0:23:20.880
<v Speaker 1>the world of technology, which I one hundred percent sure

0:23:20.880 --> 0:23:23.119
<v Speaker 1>they did not have that in nineteen ninety but they

0:23:24.080 --> 0:23:26.680
<v Speaker 1>they're board was probably composed of people like them. Let's

0:23:26.680 --> 0:23:31.040
<v Speaker 1>talk a little bit about technology now. There's so much,

0:23:31.119 --> 0:23:33.439
<v Speaker 1>so much of the changes going on right now are

0:23:34.119 --> 0:23:38.520
<v Speaker 1>accompanied by a great deal of hype. What are we overestimating?

0:23:38.560 --> 0:23:39.760
<v Speaker 1>What are we underestimating?

0:23:40.160 --> 0:23:42.920
<v Speaker 2>Okay, let's go back to ninety ninety five the Internet,

0:23:43.000 --> 0:23:44.880
<v Speaker 2>because I think that the current moment is very much

0:23:44.960 --> 0:23:47.240
<v Speaker 2>like the Internet moment. Actually, all the moments in the

0:23:47.240 --> 0:23:49.840
<v Speaker 2>middle were much smaller. I think mobile streaming or much

0:23:49.880 --> 0:23:52.919
<v Speaker 2>smaller Internet was the major moment. If you remember back

0:23:52.960 --> 0:23:54.960
<v Speaker 2>to ninety nine and two thousand people claimed there was

0:23:55.000 --> 0:23:57.800
<v Speaker 2>a lot of hype. Would we say that the Internet

0:23:57.800 --> 0:24:02.200
<v Speaker 2>of today has more than fulfilled all the expectations and more? Yes?

0:24:03.320 --> 0:24:06.840
<v Speaker 2>Along the way, did eight out of ten of the

0:24:06.880 --> 0:24:11.439
<v Speaker 2>companies that were invested in heavily go bankrupt? Yes, I

0:24:11.520 --> 0:24:15.040
<v Speaker 2>actually think of that as being the huge positive of

0:24:15.119 --> 0:24:20.360
<v Speaker 2>the United States capital system. That investment happened, eight out

0:24:20.359 --> 0:24:22.840
<v Speaker 2>of ten went broke. By the way, those acids didn't

0:24:22.880 --> 0:24:25.280
<v Speaker 2>go away. They got consumed at ten cents in the

0:24:25.320 --> 0:24:27.480
<v Speaker 2>dollar by somebody else who could then make a lot

0:24:27.480 --> 0:24:30.800
<v Speaker 2>of money. But the two out of ten, just take two,

0:24:31.440 --> 0:24:33.560
<v Speaker 2>it probably has paid for all the capitals. If we

0:24:33.840 --> 0:24:38.680
<v Speaker 2>just take Amazon and Alphabet aka Google, just those two

0:24:38.760 --> 0:24:41.480
<v Speaker 2>have probably paid for all the capital of that time.

0:24:42.119 --> 0:24:45.680
<v Speaker 2>So that's what's going to happen this time. There will

0:24:45.720 --> 0:24:49.040
<v Speaker 2>be a lot of tears, but in aggregate, there will

0:24:49.040 --> 0:24:50.879
<v Speaker 2>be a lot of success. And I think that's the

0:24:50.960 --> 0:24:55.000
<v Speaker 2>fundamental difference between the US model and almost all other countries.

0:24:55.600 --> 0:24:58.000
<v Speaker 2>On all other countries, they're desperate to keep all the

0:24:58.040 --> 0:25:01.879
<v Speaker 2>companies alive. So that means your dialute. But that's a

0:25:01.920 --> 0:25:05.760
<v Speaker 2>horrible thing. So to me, let the system works worked

0:25:05.840 --> 0:25:08.440
<v Speaker 2>really effectively, by the way, not just now, I mean

0:25:08.480 --> 0:25:12.119
<v Speaker 2>all the way back to railways and electrification, and you

0:25:12.200 --> 0:25:16.359
<v Speaker 2>mentioned telephone system. You can keep going on oil, I

0:25:16.359 --> 0:25:20.160
<v Speaker 2>mean consumer goods. It goes on and on. I think

0:25:20.160 --> 0:25:24.160
<v Speaker 2>this system is very effective. It deploys capital. Its census

0:25:24.200 --> 0:25:27.240
<v Speaker 2>is a big market is completely willing to over deploy

0:25:27.320 --> 0:25:30.320
<v Speaker 2>capital in the short term, not the long term. That

0:25:30.359 --> 0:25:34.240
<v Speaker 2>results in more competition. So it actually improves a rate

0:25:34.280 --> 0:25:37.600
<v Speaker 2>of innovation. That means what might have taken twenty years

0:25:37.680 --> 0:25:41.560
<v Speaker 2>takes five and the winners emerge exactly the same is

0:25:41.600 --> 0:25:44.679
<v Speaker 2>going to happen this time. Yeah, I saw that. I

0:25:44.680 --> 0:25:48.960
<v Speaker 2>grew up in Waterloo and BlackBerry curses from Waterloo. Yep.

0:25:49.160 --> 0:25:50.639
<v Speaker 1>Everyone used to work for BlackBerry.

0:25:50.800 --> 0:25:50.960
<v Speaker 2>Yep.

0:25:51.000 --> 0:25:54.239
<v Speaker 1>BlackBerry goes into its dive. And that's the best thing

0:25:54.240 --> 0:25:56.320
<v Speaker 1>that happened to Waterloo because it was not just capital

0:25:56.359 --> 0:25:56.840
<v Speaker 1>but talent.

0:25:57.119 --> 0:25:59.280
<v Speaker 2>Yep. Challenge is to many other companies.

0:25:59.280 --> 0:26:01.920
<v Speaker 1>It's all the smart people went on the next really

0:26:02.000 --> 0:26:05.800
<v Speaker 1>more interesting thing. And yeah, but wait, you haven't answered.

0:26:06.760 --> 0:26:09.680
<v Speaker 1>So what is your an idea that we are underestimating

0:26:09.680 --> 0:26:12.359
<v Speaker 1>at the moment that's in the current kind of suite

0:26:12.440 --> 0:26:13.480
<v Speaker 1>of innovations.

0:26:13.680 --> 0:26:16.359
<v Speaker 2>So I don't think AI is being underestimated because when

0:26:16.359 --> 0:26:17.840
<v Speaker 2>you look at the amount of capital and the amount

0:26:17.880 --> 0:26:21.520
<v Speaker 2>of things chasing it. I think it's incredible. I do

0:26:21.560 --> 0:26:24.040
<v Speaker 2>think that a lot of enterprises are deploying it in

0:26:24.080 --> 0:26:27.679
<v Speaker 2>the wrong place. They're running after shining experiments. There's a

0:26:27.760 --> 0:26:30.879
<v Speaker 2>lot of basic things you can do to use AI

0:26:30.960 --> 0:26:33.800
<v Speaker 2>to improve the business today. So that's really just my

0:26:33.920 --> 0:26:37.080
<v Speaker 2>one advice to them. Pick areas you can scale, don't

0:26:37.119 --> 0:26:41.000
<v Speaker 2>pick the shiny little toys on the side. Then.

0:26:41.119 --> 0:26:43.280
<v Speaker 1>I think, for example, there.

0:26:44.880 --> 0:26:50.240
<v Speaker 2>If anybody has more than ten percent of what they

0:26:50.280 --> 0:26:55.000
<v Speaker 2>had for customer service ten years ago, they're already five

0:26:55.080 --> 0:27:01.000
<v Speaker 2>years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make

0:27:01.119 --> 0:27:05.760
<v Speaker 2>their developers who write software thirty percent more productive today

0:27:06.119 --> 0:27:09.840
<v Speaker 2>with the goal of being seventy percent more productive, that's

0:27:09.840 --> 0:27:11.800
<v Speaker 2>not to say you will need less, you'll just get

0:27:11.800 --> 0:27:16.200
<v Speaker 2>more software done. Then they're not. And I would turn

0:27:16.200 --> 0:27:19.000
<v Speaker 2>around and tell you I think only maybe five percent

0:27:19.080 --> 0:27:24.320
<v Speaker 2>of the enterprises on both those metrics today Yeah wow Yeah.

0:27:24.359 --> 0:27:27.159
<v Speaker 2>And the one that is completely underestimated. I kind of

0:27:27.200 --> 0:27:31.840
<v Speaker 2>put it like this, quantum today is where GPUs and

0:27:31.920 --> 0:27:35.399
<v Speaker 2>AI war in twenty fifteen, and I bet you every

0:27:35.760 --> 0:27:38.960
<v Speaker 2>AI person is thinking and hoping. I wish I had

0:27:39.240 --> 0:27:42.200
<v Speaker 2>started doing more in twenty fifteen, as opposed to wait

0:27:42.280 --> 0:27:45.840
<v Speaker 2>until twenty twenty two. Quantum today is there, so it's

0:27:46.080 --> 0:27:48.879
<v Speaker 2>not good enough that you can get a big advantage,

0:27:49.000 --> 0:27:51.359
<v Speaker 2>But if you learn how to use it, then in

0:27:51.400 --> 0:27:54.359
<v Speaker 2>five years you'll be ready to exploit what comes.

0:27:54.520 --> 0:27:56.720
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, we're gonna get to quantum in a moment. But

0:27:56.720 --> 0:27:59.399
<v Speaker 1>I have a couple other AI questions. You know, I

0:28:00.080 --> 0:28:02.679
<v Speaker 1>as you know where. This conversation is part of this

0:28:02.760 --> 0:28:05.920
<v Speaker 1>thing that we do with IBM Smart Talks, and I've

0:28:05.920 --> 0:28:10.160
<v Speaker 1>been The last episode I did was on Kenya, which

0:28:10.160 --> 0:28:13.919
<v Speaker 1>has a massive deforestation problem, and they got together IBM

0:28:14.160 --> 0:28:18.160
<v Speaker 1>to call the NASA satellite data, ran it through an LLM,

0:28:18.400 --> 0:28:22.160
<v Speaker 1>and gave them this incredibly precise ten meter by ten

0:28:22.200 --> 0:28:25.520
<v Speaker 1>meter analysis of what trees the plant, where to plant

0:28:25.560 --> 0:28:28.920
<v Speaker 1>them exactly where the you know, an astonishing kind of

0:28:28.960 --> 0:28:32.399
<v Speaker 1>blueprint about how to fix their country ecologically. And it

0:28:32.440 --> 0:28:36.879
<v Speaker 1>made me think, when we analyze the potential of AI,

0:28:37.680 --> 0:28:39.960
<v Speaker 1>are we making a mistake by spending too much thinking

0:28:39.960 --> 0:28:42.880
<v Speaker 1>about the developed world when it's actually the developing world

0:28:43.160 --> 0:28:45.560
<v Speaker 1>where the greatest ROI for this is to me.

0:28:45.680 --> 0:28:49.200
<v Speaker 2>Look, software technologies are wonderful and the sense they can

0:28:49.240 --> 0:28:51.440
<v Speaker 2>scare and they can be an ad so you don't

0:28:51.440 --> 0:28:55.080
<v Speaker 2>have to do one or the other. You use defraortestation.

0:28:55.640 --> 0:28:59.360
<v Speaker 2>How about the use of pesticides and fertilizers. We always

0:28:59.400 --> 0:29:02.680
<v Speaker 2>use it. We tend to for irrigation. We tend to

0:29:02.680 --> 0:29:05.160
<v Speaker 2>just flood everything, as opposed to say, okay, only that

0:29:05.200 --> 0:29:07.320
<v Speaker 2>one needs it. You could do all those things to

0:29:07.320 --> 0:29:09.720
<v Speaker 2>get it ten times effectiveness, and that all would apply

0:29:09.880 --> 0:29:14.040
<v Speaker 2>to the developing world. How about remote healthcare or telehealth

0:29:14.160 --> 0:29:18.320
<v Speaker 2>using an AI agent. So the examples are numerous in

0:29:18.400 --> 0:29:22.040
<v Speaker 2>the developed world. I believe we are running out of people.

0:29:23.480 --> 0:29:26.480
<v Speaker 2>I know that nobody likes to hear it. Most of

0:29:26.720 --> 0:29:29.440
<v Speaker 2>the Far East is going to have half the number

0:29:29.440 --> 0:29:31.959
<v Speaker 2>of people, But twenty seventy competed today, that's not that

0:29:32.000 --> 0:29:35.000
<v Speaker 2>far away. If I look at Europe, birth rates are

0:29:35.040 --> 0:29:41.240
<v Speaker 2>far under sustaining or keeping population flat. The US, also,

0:29:41.240 --> 0:29:42.960
<v Speaker 2>depending on which number you want to look at, is

0:29:42.960 --> 0:29:46.640
<v Speaker 2>either one point six births per women or two or

0:29:46.640 --> 0:29:49.400
<v Speaker 2>two point one. Why are the three numbers? One point

0:29:49.440 --> 0:29:51.600
<v Speaker 2>six is to women who were born in the United States.

0:29:52.200 --> 0:29:55.720
<v Speaker 2>It becomes two point two. If you include immigrant women,

0:29:56.120 --> 0:29:58.320
<v Speaker 2>it becomes two point one. If you include children who

0:29:58.360 --> 0:30:02.640
<v Speaker 2>immigranting in to decide where the trend is obvious, this

0:30:02.720 --> 0:30:06.280
<v Speaker 2>is going down. So AI in the developed world is

0:30:06.320 --> 0:30:09.560
<v Speaker 2>going to be essential because to keep our current quality

0:30:09.600 --> 0:30:12.800
<v Speaker 2>of life, you need more work done or what's going

0:30:12.840 --> 0:30:14.479
<v Speaker 2>to do the work if they aren't people to do

0:30:14.520 --> 0:30:17.760
<v Speaker 2>the work. So the problems are different in the places.

0:30:17.840 --> 0:30:20.880
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it gives you in the developing world, you get

0:30:20.920 --> 0:30:25.000
<v Speaker 1>access to a suite of technologies and things at a

0:30:25.120 --> 0:30:27.479
<v Speaker 1>price you could never been able to afford.

0:30:27.640 --> 0:30:28.000
<v Speaker 2>Correct.

0:30:28.280 --> 0:30:30.240
<v Speaker 1>That was my in talking to the Kenyon thing. It

0:30:30.280 --> 0:30:32.840
<v Speaker 1>was like the whole it's this. It's maybe one of

0:30:32.880 --> 0:30:37.080
<v Speaker 1>the largest ecological projects of its kind, A fifteen billion

0:30:37.120 --> 0:30:38.200
<v Speaker 1>trees they want to plan, and.

0:30:38.160 --> 0:30:40.040
<v Speaker 2>That is one country that might get it done because

0:30:40.080 --> 0:30:43.280
<v Speaker 2>they do take a lot of pride in their ecology

0:30:43.520 --> 0:30:46.840
<v Speaker 2>and the sort of returning to the land and giving back.

0:30:47.040 --> 0:30:52.400
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. Yeah, what's different about IBM's version of AI versus

0:30:52.400 --> 0:30:53.120
<v Speaker 1>some of your.

0:30:53.600 --> 0:30:55.479
<v Speaker 2>So we are not a consumer company, so we have

0:30:55.520 --> 0:30:59.480
<v Speaker 2>no focus on a B two C chat pot. And

0:30:59.520 --> 0:31:02.120
<v Speaker 2>the reason I say that is if you're making a

0:31:02.160 --> 0:31:04.960
<v Speaker 2>B two C chat bot, does it help you to

0:31:05.040 --> 0:31:08.600
<v Speaker 2>make it even bigger and more computationally inefficient? And the

0:31:08.600 --> 0:31:11.000
<v Speaker 2>short answer is yes, because you have a certain number

0:31:11.040 --> 0:31:13.520
<v Speaker 2>of users, and you kind of say, I kind of

0:31:13.520 --> 0:31:17.440
<v Speaker 2>say this jokingly. If I add finished to French capabilities,

0:31:17.680 --> 0:31:20.920
<v Speaker 2>I can probably add five million users. If I add

0:31:21.600 --> 0:31:23.520
<v Speaker 2>writing a high coup I might be able to add

0:31:23.560 --> 0:31:27.560
<v Speaker 2>another five million users. If I add writing an email

0:31:27.640 --> 0:31:29.680
<v Speaker 2>in the voice of Steinbeck, I can probably add another

0:31:29.720 --> 0:31:33.360
<v Speaker 2>five million users. Do all those things. If my goal

0:31:33.600 --> 0:31:37.000
<v Speaker 2>is to get help a company summarize the legal documents

0:31:37.000 --> 0:31:40.240
<v Speaker 2>in English, that can be a model that's one hundred

0:31:40.360 --> 0:31:45.080
<v Speaker 2>size as effective, probably higher quality. But I don't need

0:31:45.120 --> 0:31:48.880
<v Speaker 2>to go wide. So if you're focusing on the enterprise,

0:31:49.520 --> 0:31:52.080
<v Speaker 2>that actually takes away the focus of having to go

0:31:52.320 --> 0:31:55.840
<v Speaker 2>to extremely large models, which by definition are going to

0:31:55.880 --> 0:32:01.000
<v Speaker 2>be computationally expensive, power hungry, and demand and lots of data.

0:32:01.480 --> 0:32:03.479
<v Speaker 2>So I can turn ontell the enterprise you don't need

0:32:03.480 --> 0:32:06.160
<v Speaker 2>to worry about copyright issues, about all those because you

0:32:06.200 --> 0:32:09.440
<v Speaker 2>can train on a much smaller amount of data. And now,

0:32:09.480 --> 0:32:12.720
<v Speaker 2>by the way, turning it for you yourself is a weekend exercise,

0:32:12.960 --> 0:32:16.280
<v Speaker 2>It's not a six month on a big super computer

0:32:16.360 --> 0:32:19.320
<v Speaker 2>cluster somewhere out there. That's one big difference of what

0:32:19.440 --> 0:32:25.080
<v Speaker 2>we do. Second, we are very focused on helping those

0:32:25.160 --> 0:32:28.280
<v Speaker 2>problems that can give people immediate benefit where we have

0:32:28.360 --> 0:32:32.720
<v Speaker 2>domain knowledge. So our domain knowledge is around operations, is

0:32:32.760 --> 0:32:41.960
<v Speaker 2>around programming, encoding, is around customer service, is around customer experience, logistics, procurement.

0:32:42.400 --> 0:32:45.719
<v Speaker 2>Let's stage the areas where we have a lot of expertise,

0:32:46.400 --> 0:32:49.640
<v Speaker 2>and then three we kind of apply it to ourselves

0:32:50.360 --> 0:32:52.760
<v Speaker 2>and so we are not asking our clients to be

0:32:52.880 --> 0:32:55.920
<v Speaker 2>the first experiment on it. We say you can leverage

0:32:55.920 --> 0:32:59.000
<v Speaker 2>what we did. We're happy to bring out all our learnings,

0:32:59.000 --> 0:33:01.920
<v Speaker 2>including what needs to change in the process, because the

0:33:01.920 --> 0:33:04.880
<v Speaker 2>biggest change is not technology, is getting people to accept

0:33:05.600 --> 0:33:07.200
<v Speaker 2>that there's a different way to do things.

0:33:08.160 --> 0:33:12.600
<v Speaker 1>Other challenges to explaining what makes you different to potential customers.

0:33:12.640 --> 0:33:15.600
<v Speaker 2>For sure, the shiny object is always attractive. Well, I

0:33:15.640 --> 0:33:19.000
<v Speaker 2>can go and try chat GPT. Why don't you have

0:33:19.080 --> 0:33:20.080
<v Speaker 2>your GPT version?

0:33:21.640 --> 0:33:22.800
<v Speaker 1>Do you use chat ChiPT?

0:33:23.760 --> 0:33:24.560
<v Speaker 2>I have used it.

0:33:26.000 --> 0:33:28.000
<v Speaker 1>I asked you a question recently which I thought was

0:33:28.000 --> 0:33:33.160
<v Speaker 1>really simple, and it made up about ten people. Anyway,

0:33:33.200 --> 0:33:34.000
<v Speaker 1>I had a bad experience.

0:33:34.000 --> 0:33:37.280
<v Speaker 2>I actually think that that's the fundamental issue with all

0:33:37.600 --> 0:33:40.040
<v Speaker 2>llms as they get larger. Yeah, because you had to

0:33:40.080 --> 0:33:44.120
<v Speaker 2>ask what was the original insight that led to these

0:33:45.280 --> 0:33:49.479
<v Speaker 2>It was a reward function with intent. So if it

0:33:49.560 --> 0:33:53.560
<v Speaker 2>has learned by using a reward function, it's reward function

0:33:53.720 --> 0:33:57.680
<v Speaker 2>comes from giving an answer that satisfies you. So if

0:33:57.720 --> 0:33:59.800
<v Speaker 2>it thinks that if it makes up an answer that

0:33:59.840 --> 0:34:03.160
<v Speaker 2>will satisfy you, how will you stop it? Why do

0:34:03.240 --> 0:34:07.040
<v Speaker 2>we think this is different than the clever college kid

0:34:07.040 --> 0:34:09.040
<v Speaker 2>who doesn't know an answer? What a bullships the way

0:34:09.080 --> 0:34:11.799
<v Speaker 2>to an answer? Well, it's exactly the same.

0:34:11.800 --> 0:34:13.880
<v Speaker 1>It's like the example of clever Hands. You know that

0:34:13.960 --> 0:34:17.359
<v Speaker 1>story the horse that they thought could speak, and all

0:34:17.400 --> 0:34:20.239
<v Speaker 1>it was doing was pleasing it. It's master. Yes, it

0:34:20.320 --> 0:34:21.479
<v Speaker 1>is a little bit of clever hands.

0:34:21.600 --> 0:34:25.160
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's like dogs kind of imitating and looking. What

0:34:25.160 --> 0:34:25.600
<v Speaker 2>would you.

0:34:25.560 --> 0:34:31.160
<v Speaker 1>Identify as the most significant bottleneck in the development of AI?

0:34:31.480 --> 0:34:32.759
<v Speaker 1>What's slowing us down right now?

0:34:34.600 --> 0:34:39.120
<v Speaker 2>I am not convinced that LLMS is the way to

0:34:39.239 --> 0:34:44.440
<v Speaker 2>get much beyond where we'll get incremental improvements. But I,

0:34:44.920 --> 0:34:47.879
<v Speaker 2>for one, don't believe that LMS are going to get

0:34:47.920 --> 0:34:54.040
<v Speaker 2>us to super intelligence or AGI. So I'll park that

0:34:54.160 --> 0:34:56.640
<v Speaker 2>on the side and simply say, we have to find

0:34:56.680 --> 0:35:00.480
<v Speaker 2>a way to fuse knowledge. And how do you represent

0:35:00.640 --> 0:35:04.520
<v Speaker 2>knowledge as opposed to have to statistically rediscover it each time?

0:35:04.560 --> 0:35:07.800
<v Speaker 2>I ask a question, and how do we fuse knowledge

0:35:07.840 --> 0:35:13.840
<v Speaker 2>with LLM. Maybe then we'll get to leafs and beyond

0:35:14.000 --> 0:35:18.799
<v Speaker 2>beyond today on LMS alone, my view is, I think

0:35:18.840 --> 0:35:22.600
<v Speaker 2>we can get a thousand x efficiency in power and

0:35:22.800 --> 0:35:26.520
<v Speaker 2>cost and compute from today. So if you make something

0:35:26.560 --> 0:35:29.560
<v Speaker 2>a thousand times cheaper, would people use a lot more

0:35:29.600 --> 0:35:29.879
<v Speaker 2>of it?

0:35:31.040 --> 0:35:31.400
<v Speaker 1>Yes?

0:35:32.280 --> 0:35:35.600
<v Speaker 2>And I think those answers lie as is usually in compute.

0:35:35.800 --> 0:35:40.640
<v Speaker 2>So advances in semiconductors, advances in software, and advances in

0:35:40.680 --> 0:35:43.680
<v Speaker 2>agorthic techniques all three. But how come we're not working

0:35:43.680 --> 0:35:45.120
<v Speaker 2>in any of those three. We're just taking the current

0:35:45.160 --> 0:35:49.880
<v Speaker 2>sevic conductor and going more. We're taking the current algorithmic

0:35:49.920 --> 0:35:52.040
<v Speaker 2>techniques and not really trying to invent new ones. So

0:35:52.120 --> 0:35:55.000
<v Speaker 2>I think those are all happen less than five years.

0:35:56.760 --> 0:35:59.840
<v Speaker 1>But why you say there is a we're in a

0:36:00.239 --> 0:36:05.279
<v Speaker 1>where people are not pursuing the the optimal strategy for

0:36:05.320 --> 0:36:06.719
<v Speaker 1>exploiting this technology.

0:36:06.920 --> 0:36:11.640
<v Speaker 2>Why Because when you see a few people running really

0:36:11.680 --> 0:36:14.719
<v Speaker 2>hard and they're willing to invest any amount of money,

0:36:14.760 --> 0:36:18.799
<v Speaker 2>so efficiency is not the focus. People feel if you

0:36:18.840 --> 0:36:20.440
<v Speaker 2>don't do the same, you'll get left behind.

0:36:21.680 --> 0:36:24.439
<v Speaker 1>So is this a case where there's too much money?

0:36:24.480 --> 0:36:26.200
<v Speaker 2>Humans have never had for more right ever?

0:36:26.760 --> 0:36:32.040
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, but this is this a consequence of overinvestment in

0:36:32.080 --> 0:36:33.120
<v Speaker 1>the in the field.

0:36:33.200 --> 0:36:35.520
<v Speaker 2>Going back to my internet allology, if two out of

0:36:35.560 --> 0:36:38.840
<v Speaker 2>ten are going to succeed, yeah, how do you guarantee

0:36:38.920 --> 0:36:40.480
<v Speaker 2>or how do you improve the odds that you are

0:36:40.520 --> 0:36:43.600
<v Speaker 2>one of those two? So if you pause to say,

0:36:43.600 --> 0:36:45.200
<v Speaker 2>I want to make a more efficient, that's not the

0:36:45.200 --> 0:36:48.200
<v Speaker 2>way to win. So first you win, then you become efficient.

0:36:48.520 --> 0:36:53.080
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, let's talk about what is I was told your

0:36:53.120 --> 0:36:58.360
<v Speaker 1>favorite topic it's quantum? It is what? Boy even go

0:36:58.360 --> 0:37:00.480
<v Speaker 1>any further? Why is quantum your favorite topic?

0:37:01.719 --> 0:37:04.640
<v Speaker 2>We've only had two kinds of compute in the history,

0:37:05.480 --> 0:37:08.880
<v Speaker 2>so nineteen forty five was to use that year for

0:37:08.960 --> 0:37:11.719
<v Speaker 2>anyac all the way till twenty twenty we had one

0:37:11.760 --> 0:37:13.759
<v Speaker 2>kind of compute, classical what today you would call a

0:37:13.760 --> 0:37:19.920
<v Speaker 2>classical computer. Then GPUs and AI came around, so you

0:37:19.920 --> 0:37:23.200
<v Speaker 2>would say the intuition there is you went from sort

0:37:23.200 --> 0:37:26.400
<v Speaker 2>of bits, which is algebra or high school algebra, to

0:37:26.560 --> 0:37:30.680
<v Speaker 2>including neurons, which is captured in linear algebra. But that

0:37:30.920 --> 0:37:33.640
<v Speaker 2>gives you a different kind but it can do problems

0:37:33.680 --> 0:37:36.480
<v Speaker 2>that are really hard to do. I don't say impossible,

0:37:36.560 --> 0:37:41.000
<v Speaker 2>just hard to do on normal computers. Quantum adds a

0:37:41.040 --> 0:37:46.800
<v Speaker 2>third kind of math. Yes, the physics properties which really

0:37:47.560 --> 0:37:50.759
<v Speaker 2>get people energized and the imagination going. And we use

0:37:50.840 --> 0:37:55.200
<v Speaker 2>all these words about entanglement and silver position, but maybe

0:37:55.280 --> 0:37:58.080
<v Speaker 2>because I'm a better of a math guy. The real

0:37:58.160 --> 0:38:00.719
<v Speaker 2>thing is it does a third kind of math to

0:38:00.760 --> 0:38:03.600
<v Speaker 2>make it really simple, a third kind of math that

0:38:03.719 --> 0:38:07.600
<v Speaker 2>comes from the field of abstract algebra. It does the

0:38:07.640 --> 0:38:11.360
<v Speaker 2>math you can use Hamiltonians for those who like physics,

0:38:11.920 --> 0:38:14.000
<v Speaker 2>or you can use the word Lee algebras for those

0:38:14.040 --> 0:38:18.040
<v Speaker 2>who like abstract mathematics. If you can do a third

0:38:18.120 --> 0:38:21.120
<v Speaker 2>kind of math, which algorithms are suited to that third

0:38:21.160 --> 0:38:24.279
<v Speaker 2>kind of math. So it excites me because we can

0:38:24.360 --> 0:38:27.759
<v Speaker 2>now approach algorithms that you just could never do on

0:38:27.840 --> 0:38:30.560
<v Speaker 2>the other two it's impossible. Now it's different than AI.

0:38:30.680 --> 0:38:34.080
<v Speaker 2>It's not data intensive. It's compute intensive. So we kind

0:38:34.080 --> 0:38:36.800
<v Speaker 2>of had compute and supercomputers. Then we went to data,

0:38:36.880 --> 0:38:39.000
<v Speaker 2>which is AI. And now if you say there's another

0:38:39.040 --> 0:38:43.000
<v Speaker 2>class of problems that require lots of compute, that's quantum.

0:38:43.040 --> 0:38:45.640
<v Speaker 1>A couple months ago was at the to watch some

0:38:45.719 --> 0:38:47.759
<v Speaker 1>research center and they have you know, on the ground floor,

0:38:47.800 --> 0:38:51.960
<v Speaker 1>they have those behind the glass. There's incredibly exciting looking machines.

0:38:52.560 --> 0:38:55.200
<v Speaker 1>But where are we in the timeline.

0:38:54.600 --> 0:39:00.000
<v Speaker 2>Of this three to five years away from shocking people?

0:39:01.040 --> 0:39:02.359
<v Speaker 1>What does shocking people mean?

0:39:02.719 --> 0:39:05.520
<v Speaker 2>Do something that nobody thought was possible in that timeline?

0:39:05.800 --> 0:39:07.240
<v Speaker 1>Does an example come to mind?

0:39:08.120 --> 0:39:12.640
<v Speaker 2>I was actually pleasantly surprised. So one of our clients, HSBC,

0:39:13.719 --> 0:39:17.800
<v Speaker 2>last week published a result that using a quantum computer

0:39:19.080 --> 0:39:23.200
<v Speaker 2>bond trading was thirty four percent more accurate than their

0:39:23.239 --> 0:39:24.200
<v Speaker 2>prior technique.

0:39:25.000 --> 0:39:26.200
<v Speaker 1>Thirty four percent.

0:39:26.320 --> 0:39:27.120
<v Speaker 2>Thirty four percent.

0:39:27.640 --> 0:39:31.000
<v Speaker 1>This is an industry that's used to one percent correct,

0:39:31.280 --> 0:39:35.440
<v Speaker 1>zero point five percent. Yes, that's astonishing.

0:39:35.719 --> 0:39:38.560
<v Speaker 2>Now, that was not at a scale when they could

0:39:38.560 --> 0:39:41.120
<v Speaker 2>turn it into production today, but that was sort of

0:39:41.560 --> 0:39:44.960
<v Speaker 2>their original thought experiment, and that's what they did. Now

0:39:45.239 --> 0:39:49.960
<v Speaker 2>can you imagine when will somebody so you were correct.

0:39:50.000 --> 0:39:52.920
<v Speaker 2>You talk about an industry where one basis point, if

0:39:52.920 --> 0:39:56.360
<v Speaker 2>I remember, I may be wrong, like thirteen trillion dollars

0:39:56.360 --> 0:39:58.720
<v Speaker 2>of money kind of moves around in the financial industry

0:39:58.760 --> 0:40:05.960
<v Speaker 2>each day, right, so basis point would be thirteen billion

0:40:06.080 --> 0:40:10.640
<v Speaker 2>something like that, right, one over ten thousand. So when

0:40:10.680 --> 0:40:13.000
<v Speaker 2>you think about the kind of profit that people can

0:40:13.040 --> 0:40:15.480
<v Speaker 2>make if you can tell somebody that you can come

0:40:15.560 --> 0:40:20.400
<v Speaker 2>up with a better price than your competition by just

0:40:20.520 --> 0:40:23.879
<v Speaker 2>one basis point, they would actually gain the market share.

0:40:25.040 --> 0:40:29.160
<v Speaker 2>So I think something around there, or something in the

0:40:29.160 --> 0:40:33.319
<v Speaker 2>world of materials. Can we make a better battery? Could

0:40:33.320 --> 0:40:36.960
<v Speaker 2>we make a solid state battery which means your risk

0:40:37.040 --> 0:40:40.799
<v Speaker 2>of fires heating decrease dramatically.

0:40:40.840 --> 0:40:43.080
<v Speaker 1>And the reason, sorry to ask a really nice question,

0:40:44.480 --> 0:40:46.840
<v Speaker 1>why is it that a quantum computer would be better

0:40:46.840 --> 0:40:51.400
<v Speaker 1>at solving a battery problem than our existing methods of computing.

0:40:51.480 --> 0:40:55.600
<v Speaker 2>So the equations of quantum mechanics and chemistry and how

0:40:56.200 --> 0:41:00.560
<v Speaker 2>things interact are well known. To solve them, that are

0:41:00.560 --> 0:41:02.839
<v Speaker 2>no known techniques, So these are not like closed form,

0:41:02.880 --> 0:41:04.719
<v Speaker 2>you know, it's not like the square root of a

0:41:04.800 --> 0:41:08.000
<v Speaker 2>quarterly equation. So the only way to solve them is

0:41:08.040 --> 0:41:11.000
<v Speaker 2>to explore the state space. So if you have a

0:41:11.040 --> 0:41:15.919
<v Speaker 2>few hundred electrons, you need two to the one hundred states. Well,

0:41:16.040 --> 0:41:18.279
<v Speaker 2>I'm sorry, you don't have that much memory. It's impossible.

0:41:18.680 --> 0:41:21.560
<v Speaker 2>So it takes a really, really long time on a

0:41:21.600 --> 0:41:25.240
<v Speaker 2>normal computer to solve those problems. Right, that's simpler problem.

0:41:25.920 --> 0:41:30.400
<v Speaker 2>If a quantum computer operates in the equation domain, it

0:41:30.440 --> 0:41:32.600
<v Speaker 2>doesn't need to explore the state space, it can actually

0:41:32.680 --> 0:41:34.919
<v Speaker 2>solve it. That's why I call it a different kind

0:41:34.960 --> 0:41:37.920
<v Speaker 2>of math. That's the kind of math it does. So

0:41:38.960 --> 0:41:41.120
<v Speaker 2>in a couple of seconds, it can tell you this

0:41:41.200 --> 0:41:44.799
<v Speaker 2>is how that material will be here. Oh I see,

0:41:44.960 --> 0:41:48.600
<v Speaker 2>so you've taken what could take years to a few seconds. Yeah,

0:41:48.600 --> 0:41:50.080
<v Speaker 2>that's a pretty big change.

0:41:50.320 --> 0:41:53.359
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. Yeah, it's speaking a different language, taking a different line.

0:41:53.440 --> 0:41:56.080
<v Speaker 1>So any kind of problem that comes along that's specific

0:41:56.160 --> 0:41:56.440
<v Speaker 1>to that.

0:41:56.440 --> 0:42:00.200
<v Speaker 2>Language correctly, which is not all problems. Yeah, just that's

0:42:00.200 --> 0:42:01.719
<v Speaker 2>I called it. It's one more kind of math.

0:42:02.000 --> 0:42:06.239
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, what's an example? So so many questions, Eric, give

0:42:06.280 --> 0:42:09.960
<v Speaker 1>me another example of a of a of a kind

0:42:09.960 --> 0:42:12.000
<v Speaker 1>of problem that a quantum computer would love.

0:42:13.800 --> 0:42:17.080
<v Speaker 2>This one is a bit more speculative, and I'm going

0:42:17.160 --> 0:42:20.359
<v Speaker 2>to use a little bit of poetic license. So let's

0:42:20.400 --> 0:42:23.879
<v Speaker 2>take a post office in a mid sized country. They

0:42:23.920 --> 0:42:26.640
<v Speaker 2>probably burn a billion gallons of fuel per year delivering

0:42:26.680 --> 0:42:30.200
<v Speaker 2>packages and letters because most post and advanced country says

0:42:30.520 --> 0:42:36.000
<v Speaker 2>every house, every address, each day. The way to optimize

0:42:36.000 --> 0:42:38.360
<v Speaker 2>this is we can formulate the problem. It's called the

0:42:38.440 --> 0:42:42.560
<v Speaker 2>traveling sales and problem solving it is really hard, so

0:42:42.600 --> 0:42:46.799
<v Speaker 2>people have heuristics. Let's suppose today our heuristics get us

0:42:46.800 --> 0:42:50.400
<v Speaker 2>to within twenty percent of the optimal answer. Let's suppose

0:42:50.440 --> 0:42:54.399
<v Speaker 2>a quantum computer can get you the next ten percent. Well,

0:42:54.440 --> 0:42:56.680
<v Speaker 2>if I can get ten percent of a billion gallons,

0:42:56.719 --> 0:42:58.440
<v Speaker 2>that I think is one hundred million gallons of my

0:42:58.520 --> 0:43:01.400
<v Speaker 2>math is right, and in the country i'm thinking about,

0:43:01.600 --> 0:43:04.880
<v Speaker 2>that could be eight hundred million pounds of saving to

0:43:05.000 --> 0:43:10.640
<v Speaker 2>one entity in one year. And the associated common footprint

0:43:10.719 --> 0:43:14.680
<v Speaker 2>climate change weren't less mileage on vanging. I'm not even

0:43:14.719 --> 0:43:18.640
<v Speaker 2>counting all that. These are pretty attractive problems to go after.

0:43:19.000 --> 0:43:22.799
<v Speaker 2>So if I look at the interest recently, New York

0:43:22.800 --> 0:43:27.520
<v Speaker 2>has started a whole program in some places. Illinois stood

0:43:27.600 --> 0:43:31.920
<v Speaker 2>up a quantum algorithm center between a number of the universities.

0:43:32.080 --> 0:43:36.920
<v Speaker 2>The governor there was heavily behind it, etc. So I

0:43:36.960 --> 0:43:39.960
<v Speaker 2>wouldn't say that this is widespread. This is why I'm

0:43:39.960 --> 0:43:42.520
<v Speaker 2>saying three to four years for that moment. But there's

0:43:42.640 --> 0:43:45.920
<v Speaker 2>enough people who are deeply cognizant who are saying, wait

0:43:45.960 --> 0:43:48.200
<v Speaker 2>a moment, we kind of get it. This is a

0:43:48.200 --> 0:43:50.160
<v Speaker 2>new kind of man. What are the new problems we

0:43:50.200 --> 0:43:53.240
<v Speaker 2>can solve? And the fact that we have about roughly

0:43:53.239 --> 0:43:56.440
<v Speaker 2>two hundred clients who worked with us very early stage

0:43:56.480 --> 0:43:59.640
<v Speaker 2>small experiments. Is because the intuition is I can do

0:43:59.680 --> 0:44:02.600
<v Speaker 2>something that I couldn't do in other places.

0:44:02.880 --> 0:44:04.520
<v Speaker 1>Three to four years is not a long time.

0:44:04.960 --> 0:44:05.120
<v Speaker 2>No.

0:44:07.040 --> 0:44:09.840
<v Speaker 1>But if I'm in the battery business and I don't

0:44:09.840 --> 0:44:16.080
<v Speaker 1>have a line out to a quantum computing experiment, I

0:44:16.080 --> 0:44:17.920
<v Speaker 1>have a problem. Don't have a problem.

0:44:18.320 --> 0:44:21.640
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, you'd probably be out of business in ten years.

0:44:22.239 --> 0:44:24.160
<v Speaker 2>Well maybe you could write a big check and buy

0:44:24.160 --> 0:44:26.640
<v Speaker 2>the technology from somebody else. You had to.

0:44:27.400 --> 0:44:30.880
<v Speaker 1>What is quantum rank in the kind of great inventions

0:44:30.920 --> 0:44:33.279
<v Speaker 1>of the last one hundred and fifty years.

0:44:33.040 --> 0:44:38.600
<v Speaker 2>Equal to some conductor? And I think that if semi

0:44:38.640 --> 0:44:43.440
<v Speaker 2>conductor's vanished, modern life would stop, like just stop. Yeah,

0:44:44.239 --> 0:44:51.640
<v Speaker 2>no electricity, no automobile, no streaming. You can imagine the

0:44:51.719 --> 0:44:54.440
<v Speaker 2>yells from all the kids who ever hear that no streaming?

0:44:56.239 --> 0:45:00.319
<v Speaker 1>The and is that it's funny because don't As someone

0:45:00.320 --> 0:45:04.040
<v Speaker 1>who's outside this world, I feel like quantum is underdiscussed

0:45:04.080 --> 0:45:08.200
<v Speaker 1>relative to its potential for transforming society.

0:45:08.000 --> 0:45:11.839
<v Speaker 2>Because I use my Internet example. Ninety five was the

0:45:11.840 --> 0:45:16.520
<v Speaker 2>moment with Netscape that Internet came on people's consciousness. I

0:45:16.560 --> 0:45:18.799
<v Speaker 2>said in eighty five I considered it to be this

0:45:18.840 --> 0:45:22.399
<v Speaker 2>is a solved problem because it needs something that makes

0:45:22.440 --> 0:45:26.840
<v Speaker 2>it accessible easy. That was the browser. The Netscape browser

0:45:26.920 --> 0:45:31.200
<v Speaker 2>is what brought it made easy to understand. We have probably,

0:45:31.239 --> 0:45:34.120
<v Speaker 2>as I said, about four to five years from that moment.

0:45:34.160 --> 0:45:37.120
<v Speaker 2>That's why it's under discussed because the moment I say

0:45:37.120 --> 0:45:39.040
<v Speaker 2>and you've got a math, I've probably lost ninety nine

0:45:39.040 --> 0:45:41.840
<v Speaker 2>percent of the audience. If I go to quantum mechanics,

0:45:41.840 --> 0:45:45.200
<v Speaker 2>I've probably lost nine percent of the audience.

0:45:47.040 --> 0:45:50.200
<v Speaker 1>So you, as CEO, over the last five years, have

0:45:50.360 --> 0:45:53.200
<v Speaker 1>been really the birth mother for a lot of the

0:45:53.280 --> 0:45:57.919
<v Speaker 1>quantum computing work. I'm curious, so you come in. When

0:45:57.920 --> 0:46:02.320
<v Speaker 1>you started as CEO, was this your first priority.

0:46:02.880 --> 0:46:05.320
<v Speaker 2>I had already started investing in it back in twenty

0:46:05.440 --> 0:46:11.080
<v Speaker 2>fifteen when I was leading IBM research. So let me

0:46:11.080 --> 0:46:13.080
<v Speaker 2>acknowledge and like nobody should try to copy. And I've

0:46:13.080 --> 0:46:16.279
<v Speaker 2>had a I'll call it a weird career. I was

0:46:16.280 --> 0:46:18.640
<v Speaker 2>a researcher at some point. If he'd asked me out,

0:46:18.680 --> 0:46:20.080
<v Speaker 2>I said, I'm one of those people, you know, throw

0:46:20.080 --> 0:46:22.080
<v Speaker 2>a pizza under our door and like, leave me alone.

0:46:22.280 --> 0:46:24.520
<v Speaker 2>I don't want to talk to people. Then I decided

0:46:24.520 --> 0:46:26.719
<v Speaker 2>I was interested in the business. Then I went and

0:46:26.760 --> 0:46:30.319
<v Speaker 2>started acquiring companies and doing that. Then somebody told me, hey,

0:46:30.320 --> 0:46:33.640
<v Speaker 2>why didn't you start doing some business strategy. Then I

0:46:33.719 --> 0:46:37.239
<v Speaker 2>went back to research and led our research division for

0:46:37.280 --> 0:46:40.239
<v Speaker 2>a couple of years, and when the people described it

0:46:40.280 --> 0:46:43.520
<v Speaker 2>to me, I asked some questions. So it wasn't a

0:46:43.560 --> 0:46:46.080
<v Speaker 2>big investment at that time. It was hey, can we

0:46:46.160 --> 0:46:48.960
<v Speaker 2>make a computer not just a science experiment? Can it

0:46:49.040 --> 0:46:53.160
<v Speaker 2>run by itself all night? Can you think about software

0:46:53.440 --> 0:46:55.960
<v Speaker 2>so that even people who are not deeper quantum mechanics

0:46:56.040 --> 0:46:58.680
<v Speaker 2>can begin to use it? And they began to do

0:46:58.760 --> 0:47:04.160
<v Speaker 2>those things three four years. Did they get enough confidence? Yeah, okay,

0:47:04.200 --> 0:47:06.759
<v Speaker 2>this is something that can really work. And then you've

0:47:06.760 --> 0:47:09.680
<v Speaker 2>got to nurture it to where it gets bigger and

0:47:09.680 --> 0:47:12.480
<v Speaker 2>bigger until you get the confidence that, okay, now it's

0:47:12.520 --> 0:47:13.000
<v Speaker 2>a big bet.

0:47:13.800 --> 0:47:16.360
<v Speaker 1>And what was the moment when you when you realize

0:47:16.360 --> 0:47:17.160
<v Speaker 1>now it's a big bet?

0:47:19.080 --> 0:47:20.760
<v Speaker 2>Probably two or three years ago.

0:47:21.120 --> 0:47:23.440
<v Speaker 1>And how do you decide, as the head of a

0:47:23.480 --> 0:47:27.759
<v Speaker 1>company like this, how much money, how many resources, and

0:47:27.800 --> 0:47:29.719
<v Speaker 1>how many people? And how what kind of prominence to

0:47:29.760 --> 0:47:30.759
<v Speaker 1>give to an idea like that?

0:47:31.560 --> 0:47:35.600
<v Speaker 2>So three layers the set of people who actually have

0:47:35.719 --> 0:47:40.239
<v Speaker 2>the knowledge and the intensity to fundamentally advance the technology.

0:47:40.960 --> 0:47:42.719
<v Speaker 2>If I could find more, I would higher them. So

0:47:42.800 --> 0:47:46.120
<v Speaker 2>I'm constrained of people on that one because normally there's

0:47:46.160 --> 0:47:49.240
<v Speaker 2>only so many people who could do these things. Two,

0:47:50.200 --> 0:47:53.040
<v Speaker 2>you got to be careful. If you push too hard

0:47:53.080 --> 0:47:55.960
<v Speaker 2>on timing, you will get people to take so much

0:47:56.040 --> 0:47:59.040
<v Speaker 2>risk that actually the thing will fail. So that's the

0:47:59.160 --> 0:48:01.920
<v Speaker 2>art of it in the leadership on the project and

0:48:02.960 --> 0:48:05.560
<v Speaker 2>me to say, Okay, how hard can you push? But

0:48:05.680 --> 0:48:08.440
<v Speaker 2>not so hard that you cause it to fail, because

0:48:08.440 --> 0:48:12.799
<v Speaker 2>then they get compelled to commit timelines that are just impossible.

0:48:13.360 --> 0:48:16.920
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, how do you This is fascinating. So it's ultimately

0:48:16.960 --> 0:48:19.719
<v Speaker 1>a question of judgment trying to figure out what's the

0:48:19.760 --> 0:48:22.920
<v Speaker 1>sweet spot between enough pressure to keep them ahead of

0:48:22.960 --> 0:48:25.279
<v Speaker 1>the pack, but not too much pressure so that they

0:48:25.360 --> 0:48:29.480
<v Speaker 1>start taking risks. How do you calibrate whether you're hitting

0:48:29.480 --> 0:48:32.640
<v Speaker 1>that sweet spot? I mean, do you reassess every few

0:48:32.640 --> 0:48:35.920
<v Speaker 1>months and say, I think I'm over correcting or undercorrecting

0:48:35.960 --> 0:48:36.520
<v Speaker 1>at this moment.

0:48:37.320 --> 0:48:40.759
<v Speaker 2>So one, you got to have what I call and

0:48:40.800 --> 0:48:43.160
<v Speaker 2>this is channeling a word from one of my favorite

0:48:43.160 --> 0:48:47.080
<v Speaker 2>books to geek away, how open can you be? So

0:48:47.120 --> 0:48:50.480
<v Speaker 2>I want to press hard, but the team knows that

0:48:50.520 --> 0:48:54.080
<v Speaker 2>they're allowed to push back and really argue back hard.

0:48:54.760 --> 0:48:59.280
<v Speaker 2>That means you'd get to probably that correct Goldilocks pressure.

0:49:00.840 --> 0:49:03.800
<v Speaker 2>The people themselves should want to go as hard as possible,

0:49:04.280 --> 0:49:07.880
<v Speaker 2>but not harder than possible. So that is then personality

0:49:08.239 --> 0:49:10.560
<v Speaker 2>of leadership that makes sense.

0:49:10.800 --> 0:49:13.360
<v Speaker 1>But you have to be someone who people feel comfortable

0:49:13.360 --> 0:49:18.040
<v Speaker 1>being honest with. Yes, absolutely, and people feel comfortable being

0:49:18.040 --> 0:49:22.200
<v Speaker 1>honest with you, I believe so. Yeah. When has there

0:49:22.200 --> 0:49:25.680
<v Speaker 1>been a moment in this path with quantum where you

0:49:25.680 --> 0:49:27.120
<v Speaker 1>did think you were pushing too hard?

0:49:28.880 --> 0:49:33.479
<v Speaker 2>No, because I think that the leadership there will argue

0:49:33.560 --> 0:49:36.480
<v Speaker 2>back with me any day of the week. I don't

0:49:36.520 --> 0:49:38.960
<v Speaker 2>think that they feel that they have to forward.

0:49:40.040 --> 0:49:43.560
<v Speaker 1>Do you drop by at Saturday night at ten pm

0:49:43.640 --> 0:49:44.600
<v Speaker 1>to see if people are working?

0:49:45.680 --> 0:49:51.600
<v Speaker 2>I tend to text people and ask questions and like

0:49:51.719 --> 0:49:54.440
<v Speaker 2>I'll read something and say, hey, are these people doing this?

0:49:55.000 --> 0:49:58.960
<v Speaker 2>And if they can answer me in reasonable terms, I

0:49:58.960 --> 0:50:01.880
<v Speaker 2>actually then say great. They are already watching the competition,

0:50:01.960 --> 0:50:05.120
<v Speaker 2>they are watching the literature, they're watching the science. I

0:50:05.120 --> 0:50:07.560
<v Speaker 2>don't need to push hard. If they are already ahead

0:50:07.560 --> 0:50:10.120
<v Speaker 2>of it, then me I can answer my question. I'll

0:50:10.120 --> 0:50:14.840
<v Speaker 2>say thoughtfully, not always completely accurately. You're thinking about it

0:50:14.880 --> 0:50:15.239
<v Speaker 2>on their own.

0:50:15.239 --> 0:50:18.080
<v Speaker 1>I don't need to push Yeah. One last question I

0:50:18.080 --> 0:50:20.800
<v Speaker 1>wanted to ask you, do you have the most interesting

0:50:20.840 --> 0:50:21.560
<v Speaker 1>job in America.

0:50:21.920 --> 0:50:24.279
<v Speaker 2>I believe that it's the most impressing job, which I

0:50:24.280 --> 0:50:25.400
<v Speaker 2>won't give up for anything.

0:50:26.400 --> 0:50:29.280
<v Speaker 1>It also sounds like you're enjoying yourself.

0:50:29.840 --> 0:50:33.120
<v Speaker 2>I enjoy it as long as. Look my role and

0:50:33.239 --> 0:50:37.279
<v Speaker 2>goal should be to make the enterprise thrive. As long

0:50:37.320 --> 0:50:40.600
<v Speaker 2>as than making the enterprise thrive, and are clients delighted?

0:50:42.200 --> 0:50:45.040
<v Speaker 2>I love it. If I don't, somebody else should do it.

0:50:46.080 --> 0:50:49.400
<v Speaker 1>Harvin, this has been so much fun. Thank you so

0:50:49.520 --> 0:50:55.000
<v Speaker 1>much taking the time and a fascinating, completely fascinating conversation.

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<v Speaker 1>I wish I was one of those people who could

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<v Speaker 1>help you out with quantum, but I'm afraid I'm not.

0:51:01.760 --> 0:51:02.040
<v Speaker 2>Good.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much. Smart Talks with IBM is produced

0:51:14.840 --> 0:51:19.240
<v Speaker 1>by Matt Ramano, Amy Gains, McQuaid, Trina Menino, and Jake Harper.

0:51:19.600 --> 0:51:24.680
<v Speaker 1>Mastering by Sarah Buger, music by Gramoscope, Strategy by Tatiana Lieberman,

0:51:25.080 --> 0:51:29.239
<v Speaker 1>Cassidy Meyer and Sophia Derlong. Smart Talks with IBM is

0:51:29.239 --> 0:51:32.959
<v Speaker 1>a production of Pushkin Industries and Ruby Studio at iHeartMedia.

0:51:33.520 --> 0:51:37.480
<v Speaker 1>To find more Pushkin podcasts. Listen on the iHeartRadio app,

0:51:37.640 --> 0:51:42.280
<v Speaker 1>Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. I'm Malcolm Glawell.

0:51:43.080 --> 0:51:46.279
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<v Speaker 1>this podcast don't necessarily represent IBM's positions, strategies, or opinions.