WEBVTT - Putin Faces Historic Threat to Absolute Grip on Power 0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:05.680 This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and 0:00:05.880 --> 0:00:09.440 editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus 0:00:09.520 --> 0:00:13.680 global business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:19.000 Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:22.680 All right, everybody, several stories, no surprise, that are among 0:00:22.720 --> 0:00:24.640 the most read on the Bloomberg have to do with 0:00:24.840 --> 0:00:28.400 Russia and the armed rebellion lad over the weekend and 0:00:28.440 --> 0:00:30.680 then the backing off, And you do wonder where do 0:00:30.720 --> 0:00:33.440 we go from here? So let's get and update some analysis. 0:00:33.479 --> 0:00:36.479 We turn to retired Major General Maston Robson, who is 0:00:36.520 --> 0:00:40.280 a geopolitical intelligence advisor to the advisory board at Academy Securities. 0:00:40.280 --> 0:00:43.360 He is on the Zoom on the Zoom on Zoom 0:00:43.400 --> 0:00:46.120 in Greenville, Greenville, South Carolina. And then also with US 0:00:46.159 --> 0:00:49.080 is Bloomberg News National security reporter Courtney McBride on the 0:00:49.080 --> 0:00:51.800 phone in Washington, DC. Both of you, Thank you, Thank you. 0:00:52.680 --> 0:00:52.960 Courtney. 0:00:53.000 --> 0:00:54.520 I do want to start with you though, where are 0:00:54.520 --> 0:00:58.400 we in terms of Russia and how US government officials 0:00:58.440 --> 0:01:00.680 are viewing it and reacting in thinking about it? 0:01:01.720 --> 0:01:04.759 Well, thanks for having me right now. The US and 0:01:05.040 --> 0:01:07.160 several of its allies and partners in Europe are all 0:01:07.280 --> 0:01:09.880 very much in a wait and see mode, emphasizing that 0:01:09.920 --> 0:01:13.319 they had nothing to do with this and that you know, 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:17.880 any sort of leadership change or adjustments within Russia are internal. 0:01:18.760 --> 0:01:22.319 That being said, they are framing it as a pretty 0:01:22.319 --> 0:01:26.720 big shift and a potential threat to Putin's authority, though 0:01:26.760 --> 0:01:30.640 he obviously seems to remain in power. That this raises 0:01:30.680 --> 0:01:33.880 some questions about his hold on the forces of the 0:01:33.920 --> 0:01:39.080 country and the Wagner Group, which has been a very 0:01:39.200 --> 0:01:42.000 potent tool of the of the Kremlin. 0:01:43.800 --> 0:01:46.280 And I assume that Wagner Group will continue to be that, 0:01:46.360 --> 0:01:51.440 otherwise they face some real troubles in Ukraine. General Robson, 0:01:51.520 --> 0:01:54.360 is is that not the case that you know Russia, 0:01:54.520 --> 0:01:57.360 I mean, they're military as opposed to the Wagner Group 0:01:57.360 --> 0:01:59.080 hasn't achieved very much down there. 0:02:00.240 --> 0:02:03.160 No, you're absolutely right, Matt. If there's anything we've learned 0:02:03.200 --> 0:02:06.600 out of this, that the Russian military, which we traditionally 0:02:06.640 --> 0:02:09.959 have thought is the number two capable military in the world, 0:02:10.080 --> 0:02:13.280 is not even the number one capable military in Russia. 0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:16.400 That the Bid Group has proved the ability to run 0:02:16.440 --> 0:02:19.919 circles around the Russian military. So it's hard to see 0:02:19.960 --> 0:02:22.400 how who's going to get his way out of this 0:02:22.480 --> 0:02:26.920 where he maintains that military capability that he's going to 0:02:27.000 --> 0:02:31.440 lose if he completely disbands of the Bideny group and 0:02:31.600 --> 0:02:36.600 completely alienates their leader. Because unlike America and in much 0:02:36.639 --> 0:02:39.720 of the of NATO, know, we do everything on a 0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:43.240 constitutional based, democratic public concept. We take an oath of 0:02:43.240 --> 0:02:46.760 office to support and feld the constitution. Not a certain leader, 0:02:46.919 --> 0:02:49.240 not a certain president, not a certain general, not a 0:02:49.240 --> 0:02:52.640 certain ministry of defense. That's not what Russia is built on. 0:02:52.680 --> 0:02:56.520 It's an autocratic society and that becomes very problematic when 0:02:56.560 --> 0:02:58.840 it comes to times like this, because then it becomes 0:02:59.360 --> 0:03:02.839 who's the lead I'm going to choose, not going back 0:03:02.880 --> 0:03:05.280 to the grassroots of a constitutional based society. 0:03:05.880 --> 0:03:10.960 So general Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to I 0:03:11.000 --> 0:03:15.800 guess he's just started addressing the nation or addressing Moscow, 0:03:16.080 --> 0:03:18.400 and so we'll look for some headlines. Having said that, 0:03:18.919 --> 0:03:21.600 what are you watching out in terms of what he 0:03:21.720 --> 0:03:24.639 has to say in terms of mood, context, or just specifics. 0:03:25.560 --> 0:03:28.560 Yeah, the big decision he has to make is can 0:03:28.560 --> 0:03:32.120 he's one Does he have to choose between his minister 0:03:32.160 --> 0:03:35.000 Defense and chief staff in the Army and the Boden 0:03:35.080 --> 0:03:39.520 Group number two. Can he sway the Russian people who 0:03:39.640 --> 0:03:44.320 seem to have become very positively supportive of the Voden 0:03:44.360 --> 0:03:47.080 Group because of this cess on the battlefield, and he 0:03:47.160 --> 0:03:50.040 makes statements that will make them say, I'm going to 0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:54.480 ban the Widener group. I'm going to basically hold accountable 0:03:55.160 --> 0:03:58.360 the chief of the Vaden Group, even if it puts 0:03:58.440 --> 0:04:02.160 us to the disadvantage military not only in Ukraine, but 0:04:02.240 --> 0:04:04.520 in Syria and in Africa and other parts of the 0:04:04.520 --> 0:04:08.120 world where they've been very successful as his military army. 0:04:08.360 --> 0:04:10.520 That's going to be a hard self for him. So 0:04:10.920 --> 0:04:14.640 how he navigates this, I think is key. I don't 0:04:14.680 --> 0:04:18.159 really think that this has ever been a case where 0:04:18.160 --> 0:04:20.360 it was an anti Putin thing. I think this has 0:04:20.400 --> 0:04:23.120 been a blow his level. This fight that has been going 0:04:23.200 --> 0:04:27.320 on for months between what the group believed was the 0:04:27.400 --> 0:04:30.559 right way to fight a war, the general that putin 0:04:30.600 --> 0:04:33.960 put in charge, that the Vden Group totally supported him, 0:04:34.000 --> 0:04:36.960 being removed by the Minister Defense, the chief staff of 0:04:37.000 --> 0:04:40.440 the army, and the group believed that the army is 0:04:40.520 --> 0:04:44.480 inept and then actually makes it more difficult for group 0:04:44.520 --> 0:04:47.760 to be successful and has even turned contentious where they 0:04:47.800 --> 0:04:50.920 believe they've been targeted on the battlefield by the Russian 0:04:51.000 --> 0:04:55.400 Army at the discretion in the order of the Minister 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:58.560 of Defense the chief staff of the Army. So it's 0:04:58.600 --> 0:05:01.440 pretty messy situation, right, and now the Putin's got to 0:05:01.480 --> 0:05:05.120 try to manufacture's way through Courtney. 0:05:05.120 --> 0:05:10.760 What do we know about Pregoshan's claims that Soygu was 0:05:11.600 --> 0:05:16.800 mining escape routes or even planning missile attacks on Wagner camps. 0:05:18.200 --> 0:05:22.919 Well, certainly the US officials are being very very quiet 0:05:22.960 --> 0:05:26.640 and discreet about what they have determined, and you know, 0:05:26.680 --> 0:05:30.200 in terms of intelligence, you know, as the General said, 0:05:30.320 --> 0:05:37.200 Pregosion has long been criticizing Shoigu and other Defense ministry officials. 0:05:38.040 --> 0:05:40.920 So the real I think the real shift that we 0:05:41.000 --> 0:05:45.840 saw this weekend was his criticism of even the basis 0:05:45.839 --> 0:05:48.520 for the war, suggesting that Ukraine was never a threat 0:05:49.000 --> 0:05:53.120 and that rather than these leaders simply failing to prosecute 0:05:53.120 --> 0:05:56.560 the war correctly, it never should have occurred in the 0:05:56.600 --> 0:05:58.280 first place. And I think that was that was a 0:05:58.320 --> 0:06:00.839 huge rhetorical shift. And then obviously we saw forces on 0:06:00.880 --> 0:06:06.839 the move that was itself a very jarring and disruptive development. 0:06:06.440 --> 0:06:09.440 Courtney, are reporting, go ahead, please, General Command. 0:06:09.640 --> 0:06:12.000 Those are two great points, Courtney, because that's where I 0:06:12.000 --> 0:06:17.240 think Grosen overplayed his hand. He was attempting, in my opinion, 0:06:18.160 --> 0:06:21.440 to ratchet up his rhetoric of it was a Minister 0:06:21.440 --> 0:06:24.080 of Defense who gave bad advice to Putin. It was 0:06:24.080 --> 0:06:27.039 the fifth but that was a bridge too far. And 0:06:27.120 --> 0:06:30.680 then his quote unquote demonstration certainly was a bridge too far. 0:06:31.279 --> 0:06:33.680 And I think force is Putin to now as a 0:06:33.720 --> 0:06:37.200 strong man, he has to take a hard stand against that, 0:06:37.680 --> 0:06:40.520 even if it's unpopular. So I'm in total agreement Courtney. 0:06:40.880 --> 0:06:44.520 So hard stand meaning he's going to kill pregotion. Is 0:06:44.560 --> 0:06:46.320 that pretty much Putin's only option. 0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:49.680 I don't think his only option. I think it's just 0:06:49.720 --> 0:06:52.880 a function of how much slay he thinks. He has 0:06:53.560 --> 0:06:57.360 both of us, his senior military leadership and with his people, 0:06:57.960 --> 0:07:00.680 to be able to say, for the good in the nation, 0:07:00.800 --> 0:07:02.320 for the good of the war, for the good of 0:07:02.360 --> 0:07:04.440 what we're doing, We've got to find a way to 0:07:04.839 --> 0:07:08.960 pass this back together. I'm not saying that's impossible. Putin 0:07:09.000 --> 0:07:12.480 has certainly proved over the decades to be pretty shrewd 0:07:13.200 --> 0:07:16.960 and how he manufactures somethings wouldn't surprise me if he 0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:19.080 could pull it off, But it's gonna be a tough lift. 0:07:19.280 --> 0:07:22.160 General Robson, I do wonder, though, has this weakened him? 0:07:22.200 --> 0:07:25.320 Does it force Putin's hand to maybe end this war 0:07:25.480 --> 0:07:27.000 earlier rather than later. 0:07:27.840 --> 0:07:30.440 So weakens a relative term. Does it weaken him in 0:07:30.480 --> 0:07:33.520 the eyes of the Russian people, I'm not sure it does. 0:07:34.200 --> 0:07:36.200 It definitely weakens him. I think in the eyes of 0:07:36.240 --> 0:07:39.360 the international community. I'm sure that China is looking at 0:07:39.360 --> 0:07:42.120 this going, this is exactly why we told you not 0:07:42.160 --> 0:07:44.920 to go in Ukraine, because it's gonna be a problem 0:07:44.960 --> 0:07:48.080 for you if it doesn't really go blissfully. And that 0:07:48.200 --> 0:07:52.400 hasn't gone blissfully, and so you're gonna have other partners 0:07:52.840 --> 0:07:55.560 that have been in Russia's camp that will be ruined 0:07:55.560 --> 0:07:58.360 the fact that he's put them all in this position, 0:07:59.000 --> 0:08:01.120 and you're gonna have and the rest of the free 0:08:01.120 --> 0:08:04.800 world going, okay, how do we take advantage of this? 0:08:04.920 --> 0:08:07.240 And certainly Ukraine is going to try to take advantage 0:08:07.280 --> 0:08:10.560 of this by up ramp up their kppability, and does 0:08:10.640 --> 0:08:13.320 NATO and does US and do others say we're going 0:08:13.400 --> 0:08:16.720 to pile them with more equipment and airplanes. I think 0:08:16.720 --> 0:08:18.920 we're going to take it pretty cautiously, because the last 0:08:18.920 --> 0:08:22.200 thing we want to do is is become another talking 0:08:22.240 --> 0:08:26.080 point for Putin In an anti American, anti NATO, anti 0:08:26.120 --> 0:08:30.520 free world, taking advantage of Putin's in Russia's weak moment. 0:08:30.920 --> 0:08:37.920 Nonetheless, Putin can afford to continue to send troops to Ukraine. 0:08:37.960 --> 0:08:40.240 He can afford to keep this war going for years. 0:08:40.760 --> 0:08:43.280 And in terms of weakening, I mean, he still has 0:08:43.640 --> 0:08:48.280 his finger near the nuclear launch button, right, so we 0:08:48.280 --> 0:08:50.520 will always have to be wary of his power. 0:08:51.400 --> 0:08:54.200 Absolutely, and the nuclear launch button really is the one 0:08:54.240 --> 0:08:59.960 that's most significant and impactful. Without the bottom of the group, 0:09:01.480 --> 0:09:05.120 he can certainly hold some of the positions he has. 0:09:05.679 --> 0:09:08.480 I'll have a hard time being offensive in Ukraine without 0:09:08.480 --> 0:09:12.360 the Vagner group. And I think eventually the mothers of 0:09:12.440 --> 0:09:15.120 Russia starting what's going on here? 0:09:15.240 --> 0:09:16.920 Hey Courtney, thirty seconds? 0:09:16.960 --> 0:09:17.200 Here? 0:09:17.920 --> 0:09:21.520 Is there an advantage play here for US officials? What 0:09:21.559 --> 0:09:24.720 are you hearing from the NSA or from the national 0:09:24.720 --> 0:09:27.000 security side of the US government? And GED just got 0:09:27.040 --> 0:09:28.319 about thirty seconds. 0:09:28.679 --> 0:09:32.319 Sure, they're certainly hoping that Ukraine can seize an opportunity, 0:09:32.360 --> 0:09:37.920 whether it's nearly you know, taking advantage of a distracted 0:09:37.960 --> 0:09:41.640 weekend Russia. But I think the general's absolutely right about 0:09:41.640 --> 0:09:48.560 the concern about escalating with NATO or US involvement. 0:09:48.840 --> 0:09:51.760 We will want to point out that President putin a 0:09:51.840 --> 0:09:56.680 six minute address to his country it is over. He 0:09:56.720 --> 0:09:58.880 did say the Wagner troops can join the Russian army 0:09:58.960 --> 0:10:01.240 or go to Belarus. He said most Wagner troops are 0:10:01.280 --> 0:10:05.200 Russian patriots. They were used the mutiny organizers wanted to 0:10:05.240 --> 0:10:07.960 divide Russia, and he says that we took all measures 0:10:08.000 --> 0:10:12.319 to neutralize danger. So, Matt, a very quick statement by 0:10:12.360 --> 0:10:14.400 the Russian president. Thank you both. 0:10:14.520 --> 0:10:18.880 Yes, you're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch 0:10:18.960 --> 0:10:22.280 us live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:25.840 on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg 0:10:25.880 --> 0:10:29.160 Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:10:30.440 --> 0:10:33.240 All right, everybody, We did talk about Scarlett mentioning Kernibal 0:10:33.400 --> 0:10:36.559 as one of the biggest laggards in today's session, shares 0:10:36.559 --> 0:10:39.000 having their biggest one day drop since November sixteenth, down 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:42.360 seven point six percent. The company to come out reporting 0:10:42.440 --> 0:10:46.960 quarterly results and an annual forecast that outperform, but many 0:10:47.040 --> 0:10:49.640 saying that they failed to keep pace with the high expectations. 0:10:49.640 --> 0:10:51.560 That has fueled a sharp rally in the stock, which 0:10:51.559 --> 0:10:54.200 is up eighty one percent so far here in twenty 0:10:54.240 --> 0:10:56.040 twenty three. But let's get to it, because we were 0:10:56.040 --> 0:10:58.400 delighted to have with us to share some insight on 0:10:58.480 --> 0:11:02.000 the company's business. The Presidency and Chief Climate Officer of Carnival. 0:11:02.240 --> 0:11:04.559 He's Josh Weinstein and he joins us on Zoom in 0:11:04.600 --> 0:11:06.640 New York City. Josh, it's so great to have you 0:11:06.679 --> 0:11:09.680 here with Matt and myself on Bloomberg Business Week. First 0:11:09.679 --> 0:11:12.840 of all, if I may, how do you see the 0:11:12.840 --> 0:11:15.280 broader macro outlook on a day when we're spending a 0:11:15.320 --> 0:11:18.880 lot of time talking about Russia and concerns about instability there. 0:11:19.679 --> 0:11:22.000 How do you see it and how do you kind 0:11:22.000 --> 0:11:23.560 of factor it in as you run what is a 0:11:23.600 --> 0:11:24.440 global business? 0:11:25.559 --> 0:11:27.880 Well, thank you first of all for having me. It's 0:11:27.920 --> 0:11:31.480 a pleasure to be with you. You know, I got 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:34.160 to be honest with you over the last call it 0:11:34.480 --> 0:11:38.120 nine months, ten months. Our trajectory has only been in 0:11:38.160 --> 0:11:41.920 one direction, and that has been up. And that is 0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:46.359 despite you know, a good amount of geopolitical uncertainty and discord, 0:11:46.600 --> 0:11:48.520 and that's you know, we're a global company and so 0:11:48.559 --> 0:11:51.000 that's part of our global trade and we adapt and 0:11:51.040 --> 0:11:53.440 we evolve and we move on. I'd say in the 0:11:53.520 --> 0:11:58.679 last three months it's been pretty fascinating. We usually have 0:11:59.280 --> 0:12:03.320 our peak demand in bookings in the first quarter, and 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:07.360 our first quarter is December, January February of the year, 0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:11.480 and in fact, we did have a record first quarter 0:12:11.520 --> 0:12:14.440 in bookings, highest bookings in the company's history. We thought 0:12:14.480 --> 0:12:16.160 that was great, and then we got to our second 0:12:16.240 --> 0:12:18.040 quarter and we shattered it. 0:12:18.800 --> 0:12:23.199 And so the demand that we see is carrying on. 0:12:23.280 --> 0:12:25.520 In the first three weeks of our third quarter, for 0:12:26.000 --> 0:12:29.240 the month of June, it hasn't stopped. And so despite 0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:34.120 the fact that there is geopolitical uncertainty, that is something 0:12:34.120 --> 0:12:36.640 that our consumers, our guests are taking in stride. And 0:12:36.679 --> 0:12:39.520 at the end of the day, they've got a desire 0:12:39.559 --> 0:12:42.560 to travel, they've got a desire for new experiences, and 0:12:42.600 --> 0:12:47.679 they have a lot of pent up demand for experience, 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:51.200 as you know, and that plays very well into our business. 0:12:51.320 --> 0:12:51.600 Josh. 0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:54.280 It feels like though investors maybe think it's as good 0:12:54.320 --> 0:12:56.920 as it gets, considering the bounce back that we've seen 0:12:56.960 --> 0:12:58.880 in your share price this year. You know how it 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:02.040 goes as someone who's been at Carnival for a while 0:13:02.160 --> 0:13:05.440 now and looked at it from several different angles. But 0:13:05.760 --> 0:13:07.560 we still have the stock down from about eighty percent 0:13:07.640 --> 0:13:09.880 from a high back in January of twenty eighteen. Is 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:11.480 it as good as it gets? Do you think in 0:13:11.559 --> 0:13:15.400 terms of bookings and visibility right now? Oh? 0:13:15.520 --> 0:13:18.120 Not at all? You know, you know, So the short 0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:18.880 answer is no. 0:13:19.040 --> 0:13:21.280 It As a matter of fact, even though we're all 0:13:21.280 --> 0:13:23.120 the way back in our booking curve for our North 0:13:23.160 --> 0:13:25.880 American brands, we're still only about ninety percent back for 0:13:25.960 --> 0:13:29.079 our European brands, and so their trajectory is the same thing, 0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:30.200 going in the right direction. 0:13:30.320 --> 0:13:31.680 But they've got a ways to run. 0:13:32.160 --> 0:13:34.760 But to show you the strength of our portfolio of 0:13:35.120 --> 0:13:39.360 world class brands, our European brands, in the second quarter, 0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:42.680 they actually as compared to twenty nineteen, not only do 0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:46.560 they have double digit increased percentages in the volumes book 0:13:46.640 --> 0:13:48.360 for the rest of this year, for the second half 0:13:48.360 --> 0:13:51.800 of the year it was on double digit price increases. 0:13:52.240 --> 0:13:54.760 And so first quarter seven and a half points up 0:13:54.760 --> 0:13:56.839 in pricing. Second quarter of this year seven and a 0:13:56.840 --> 0:14:01.240 half percent percent up in pricing with that demand. On 0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:04.320 a forward looking basis as wind in our back, we're 0:14:04.400 --> 0:14:06.480 very well booked for the rest of this year into 0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:09.800 the first half of next year. So with all due 0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:13.640 respect to you know, to the market. You know, any 0:14:13.679 --> 0:14:16.040 one day you're gonna have ups, you're gonna have downs. 0:14:16.080 --> 0:14:17.320 As you said, we've been on. 0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:19.880 A pretty big tear, about a one hundred percent or 0:14:19.920 --> 0:14:22.560 so since the start of the year. Our job is 0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:25.200 to focus on the business, focus on that demand generation, 0:14:25.320 --> 0:14:27.040 and continue to drive our business forward. 0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:32.840 Josh Matt Miller here with Carol. What needs to happen 0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:36.200 to bring the stock back to pre pandemic levels or 0:14:36.240 --> 0:14:38.160 why hasn't it come back? Is it just that you 0:14:38.720 --> 0:14:40.720 took on a lot of debt that you have a 0:14:40.760 --> 0:14:43.080 lot of investment to do. I mean, you're trading in 0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:47.760 the teams right now, and before the pandemic hit, you 0:14:47.800 --> 0:14:51.200 were trading more like fifties sixty seventy dollars a share. 0:14:52.360 --> 0:14:52.600 Yeah. 0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:56.440 Well, you know, our profile has definitely been impacted by 0:14:56.800 --> 0:14:59.040 by what happened in twenty twenty and what we had 0:14:59.040 --> 0:15:01.280 to do to get through it. Frankly, you know, we 0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:04.000 were a company that entered in with probably about you know, 0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:06.920 the market cap and the and the debt. If you 0:15:06.960 --> 0:15:09.840 added it together, it's probably not too dissimilar to exactly 0:15:09.880 --> 0:15:12.000 where we are now if you add it together. It's 0:15:12.120 --> 0:15:14.800 just that our debt, which used to be about thirteen 0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:18.120 billion dollars, is thirty three billion dollars and hence the 0:15:18.600 --> 0:15:20.800 value of the of the equity is down and it's 0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:23.560 our job over the next you know, several years to 0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:27.920 effectively transfer that back by generating free cash flow. We 0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:30.640 have a good amount of headroom to do to take 0:15:30.720 --> 0:15:33.200 that and delever and pay down debt. We have the 0:15:33.240 --> 0:15:36.960 lowest order book of new builds in frankly my history. 0:15:36.960 --> 0:15:39.120 I've been here for twenty one years, and when I 0:15:39.160 --> 0:15:41.840 started back in November of two thousand and seven as 0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:45.680 the treasurer as one of the stops along my path 0:15:45.720 --> 0:15:48.080 here at Carnival Corporation, we had twenty four ships on order, 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:51.720 and so our ability to generate a lot of cash 0:15:51.720 --> 0:15:54.040 and we will continue to do that and use it 0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:57.480 to delever is quite strong, to tell you the truth. Now, 0:15:57.480 --> 0:16:00.440 as far as you know, what are the other factors involved? 0:16:00.440 --> 0:16:04.080 For us, it's about getting back to not only full capacity, 0:16:04.160 --> 0:16:08.200 full occupancy, but really leveraging our brands. Our brands are phenomenal. 0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:10.720 I mean, they are world class. We have Carnival Cruise 0:16:10.760 --> 0:16:15.120 Line as America's cruise line. Ada in Germany created modern 0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:18.000 day cruising. They own Germany Piano Cruises. In the UK 0:16:18.120 --> 0:16:21.000 they are synonymous with cruising. They have a Union Jack 0:16:21.080 --> 0:16:24.400 as their livery. We own those markets. They are very 0:16:24.400 --> 0:16:27.360 good markets for us, and they're rebounding and so the 0:16:27.640 --> 0:16:30.840 as far as I'm concerned, there's only one way that 0:16:30.880 --> 0:16:31.800 we're going, and it's up. 0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:33.680 Can I just ask about your debt? You have a 0:16:33.720 --> 0:16:37.240 weighted average fixed coupon of six point nine to four percent, 0:16:37.320 --> 0:16:39.600 which is not bad considering where we are right now, 0:16:39.720 --> 0:16:42.560 and we're I guess, and about. 0:16:42.320 --> 0:16:45.080 Two point nine billion maturing in twenty twenty. 0:16:44.640 --> 0:16:47.760 Four, which is where it would be, which is much 0:16:47.760 --> 0:16:49.720 lower than it would be if you had to refinance. Now, 0:16:49.880 --> 0:16:52.040 is my point right? You guys got in on this 0:16:52.160 --> 0:16:55.840 early and filled your coffers first. Do you think that 0:16:55.840 --> 0:16:58.520 puts you at an advantage relative to your competitors. 0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:01.360 I think we're in good shape. 0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:03.720 You know, we've we've basically gotten to a point where 0:17:03.720 --> 0:17:06.399 We ended the quarter at about seven point two billion 0:17:06.440 --> 0:17:10.800 seven point three billion of liquidity, and we've already started 0:17:10.840 --> 0:17:13.439 to de lever. As far as we're concerned, we can 0:17:13.480 --> 0:17:15.959 always be opportunistic, we can refinance, we can look at 0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:19.199 what's available, but we as far as we see the future, 0:17:19.200 --> 0:17:21.320 we have no need to go out to the markets 0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:24.920 at this point. We can delever with the liquidity buffer 0:17:24.960 --> 0:17:27.760 that we have and starting to generate again all of 0:17:27.800 --> 0:17:31.080 that cash flow. We do have export credits as well, 0:17:31.160 --> 0:17:33.160 so for the new bills that we do have on order, 0:17:33.480 --> 0:17:37.240 we've got about three billion dollars of very competitively priced 0:17:37.280 --> 0:17:40.439 export credit facilities ready and waiting for us if we 0:17:40.560 --> 0:17:44.200 choose to use them between now and two years from. 0:17:44.040 --> 0:17:45.800 Now, in the middle of twenty twenty five, when our 0:17:45.880 --> 0:17:46.840 last ship is ordered. 0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:49.960 So we're in a very strong position when it comes 0:17:49.960 --> 0:17:52.879 to our ability to manage our debt down and manage 0:17:52.880 --> 0:17:54.879 our interest expense down over time. You know, as a 0:17:54.920 --> 0:17:57.680 matter of fact, one of the one of the drivers 0:17:57.680 --> 0:17:59.600 that we had for being able to add two hundred 0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:02.920 and seventy million dollars to the bottom line in our 0:18:02.960 --> 0:18:08.480 guidance change from March to June was in fact interest 0:18:08.800 --> 0:18:11.760 expends savings from starting that process of delevering. 0:18:11.920 --> 0:18:16.000 So we're very we're very pleased with that. With that trajectory, Well, talk. 0:18:15.800 --> 0:18:17.080 To us about you know, Matt and I are going 0:18:17.119 --> 0:18:19.119 back and forth. We're looking at different functions here, so 0:18:19.200 --> 0:18:20.920 tell us. We want to make sure we have this right. 0:18:20.960 --> 0:18:23.440 Is it two point nine billion? Is that correct? Maturing 0:18:23.440 --> 0:18:25.760 in twenty twenty four, I was looking at some of 0:18:25.800 --> 0:18:26.400 our research. 0:18:27.320 --> 0:18:29.000 You know what, I don't want to give you the 0:18:29.040 --> 0:18:31.160 wrong number in a live program. That's fair. We don't 0:18:31.200 --> 0:18:33.440 get back to you and we'll make sure we get 0:18:33.440 --> 0:18:34.800 it squared away for you. Well. 0:18:34.840 --> 0:18:36.600 And the other thing is is you talked about, you know, 0:18:36.680 --> 0:18:39.600 operating good cash flow, and forgive me, we just want 0:18:39.640 --> 0:18:42.919 to make sure we're we're hitting it right too. You 0:18:42.920 --> 0:18:45.639 know the amount that the ships are not inexpensive. You 0:18:45.640 --> 0:18:47.800 guys have did a lot of replacement during the pandemic 0:18:47.880 --> 0:18:49.600 and getting rid of some of the older ships and 0:18:49.640 --> 0:18:52.440 so on. But I do wonder, Josh, can you I 0:18:52.480 --> 0:18:54.560 don't know, what's the capex that you're looking for that 0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:57.639 you can continue to spend, which is really important, you know, 0:18:57.640 --> 0:18:59.240 certainly to your business, and can you do it with 0:18:59.280 --> 0:19:00.800 the debt load the car right detload. 0:19:01.680 --> 0:19:01.920 Yeah. 0:19:02.520 --> 0:19:05.000 I mean the short answer is yes, I think we can, 0:19:05.040 --> 0:19:07.040 you know, And as far as we have new build 0:19:07.040 --> 0:19:10.200 CAPEX and we have non new build CAPEX, our new 0:19:10.240 --> 0:19:13.600 build order pipeline, as I said, is the smallest we 0:19:13.680 --> 0:19:17.480 have had in anyone's memory, and so we are very 0:19:17.520 --> 0:19:20.719 well placed to be able to manage that type of 0:19:20.720 --> 0:19:21.359 CAPEX spend. 0:19:21.400 --> 0:19:25.680 And as I mentioned, it does come with export credits packaged. 0:19:25.359 --> 0:19:28.240 With it, should we choose to use them, as export 0:19:28.280 --> 0:19:30.600 credits are rolling off because we're paying them down every 0:19:30.680 --> 0:19:33.480 year in the normal course. On top of that new 0:19:33.520 --> 0:19:37.440 build CAPEX we've got, we've got maintenance cappex, we've got 0:19:37.480 --> 0:19:39.199 you know, making sure our ships are in good condition. 0:19:39.640 --> 0:19:42.479 That you know, we're forecasting it's going to be you know, 0:19:42.480 --> 0:19:44.840 give or take about one point five billion for this 0:19:44.960 --> 0:19:49.520 year in twenty twenty three, and about one point seven 0:19:49.560 --> 0:19:53.680 billion on an annual basis thereafter for the foreseeable future. 0:19:54.040 --> 0:19:58.480 That profile, that entire CAPEX profile is significantly less than 0:19:58.480 --> 0:20:02.959 what we were living with how we were operating pre pause. 0:20:03.800 --> 0:20:06.119 And so that's why we're so bullish that the amount 0:20:06.200 --> 0:20:08.720 of cash flow that will be able to generate and 0:20:08.760 --> 0:20:11.440 then utilized a d lever is not insignificant. 0:20:11.480 --> 0:20:13.440 You know, we're basically. 0:20:13.000 --> 0:20:16.400 Planning between twenty four, twenty five and twenty six something 0:20:16.440 --> 0:20:20.120 in the magnitude of about five billion of cash from operations, 0:20:20.160 --> 0:20:24.240 where if you net out all these with the capex, 0:20:24.320 --> 0:20:28.080 with the debt, export credits coming in, export credits getting 0:20:28.080 --> 0:20:32.320 paid off, we anticipate over over eight billion dollars will 0:20:32.359 --> 0:20:35.240 be available for us to be able to de lever. 0:20:35.359 --> 0:20:37.640 And that's on top of it, you know, a couple 0:20:37.680 --> 0:20:38.600 a couple billion. 0:20:38.359 --> 0:20:39.040 We're doing this year. 0:20:39.200 --> 0:20:40.480 Josh. One thing I want to ask you, and you 0:20:40.520 --> 0:20:42.640 mentioned this too, that you know, among the different hats 0:20:42.640 --> 0:20:45.240 that you've worn at Carnival, and you've been there, I 0:20:45.280 --> 0:20:47.200 think almost twenty years. I think I'm right. 0:20:47.119 --> 0:20:49.520 If I'm looking at it, twenty one one. 0:20:49.920 --> 0:20:53.879 Is treasure and so you you understand the importance of 0:20:53.880 --> 0:20:57.760 the financial side of that. Having said that, I am 0:20:58.040 --> 0:21:01.639