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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. We are

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Speaker 1: live from our tummy John Home Studios. I'm joined as

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Speaker 1: always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my

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Speaker 1: BFF professional better Simon Hunter, and also Simon.

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Speaker 2: Hello, Chad, It's mid March. What are we talking? We

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Speaker 2: talk in baseball? We talking Premier League. What are we

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Speaker 2: talking today?

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Speaker 3: Brother?

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Speaker 1: Oh, you're a teaser. You know what we're talking about.

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Speaker 1: It's the high holy week of the NFL off season.

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Speaker 4: Here at Action Network.

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Speaker 1: March Madness has arrived in the first run of the

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Speaker 1: NCAA Tournament. Starts this Thursday with sixteen games and then

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Speaker 1: sixteen more on Friday. It's a gambling extravaganza for college

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Speaker 1: hoops fans all weekend long. March Madness always a warm

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Speaker 1: spot in my heart, just because you know, my best

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Speaker 1: selling book, The Odds was based entirely on tracking college

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Speaker 1: basketball betters through the college basketball season. Today, we're going

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Speaker 1: to get ready for all things betting for the big

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Speaker 1: Dance to close today's show. Like we do during the

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Speaker 1: NFL season, We've got our director of Research, Evan Abrams,

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Speaker 1: who will deliver the last word with his favorite tournament

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Speaker 1: betting trends. But right now, a man who I would

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Speaker 1: have profiled in the odds if he had been alive

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Speaker 1: back then. We welcome long time contributor to our Big

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Speaker 1: Bets on Campus podcast, a college hoops fanatic, one third

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Speaker 1: of the popular group three man Weave, the University of

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Speaker 1: Missouri's finest Welcome to the show, Jim Root.

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Speaker 5: There we go, let's do it. How young do you

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Speaker 5: think I am? Chad? You don't think I was a

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Speaker 5: lot like.

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Speaker 4: I wanted to make you feel good.

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Speaker 5: Okay, I'll take it.

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Speaker 3: I'll think you.

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Speaker 1: No, you got so much grief before we came on

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Speaker 1: the air, because you're from like a town outside Milwaukee

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Speaker 1: that Matt Mitchell happens to know, and so he was

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Speaker 1: excited to rip it. And so I just wanted to

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Speaker 1: make you feel a little bit better. And you know, Deage,

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Speaker 1: you a little bit.

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Speaker 5: Needed the good vibes. I appreciate that.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, it's been a busy, you know what, thirty six

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Speaker 6: hours since the bracket dropped, But we're getting closer to

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Speaker 6: the end of the tunnel of content and actually getting

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Speaker 6: to games.

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Speaker 5: So ready to chop it up with you guys.

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Speaker 6: I feel like my takes are warmed up, they're sharpened,

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Speaker 6: ready to really dig in here.

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Speaker 4: Well, you have no choice.

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Speaker 1: By the way, Jim will be joining us in Chicago

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Speaker 1: for our live Elite eight show, which I'll share more

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Speaker 1: details about in one moment. If you are listening this

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Speaker 1: to this in Illinois, big news, folks, the favorite podcast

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Speaker 1: presented by Bet three six five is now live in

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Speaker 1: my home state of Illinois and the new Bet three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. Customers, including those in Illinois, get one hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars.

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Speaker 1: Sign up using promo code Favorites to posit ten dollars,

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Speaker 1: and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can

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Speaker 1: be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures.

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Speaker 4: And more. Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary.

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Speaker 1: At Bet three sixty five, especially in Illinois. Must be

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Speaker 1: twenty one or older. In present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

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Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned

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Speaker 1: restrictions apply. As I mentioned, Jim will be joining us

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Speaker 1: for our Elite eight March Madness Games event on Saturday,

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Speaker 1: March twenty ninth at Joe's on Weed in the beautiful

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Speaker 1: City of Chicago, Illinois. Free event, free drinks, free life

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Speaker 1: show with Stucky Jim RSVP. To reserve your spot, follow

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Speaker 1: the link in this episode description or google favorite podcast

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Speaker 1: event Chicago and our SVP. The site will pop right up.

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Speaker 1: We're excited to have Jim on the show. Excited to

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Speaker 1: have Jim and the three man Weave crew join us

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Speaker 1: for the event in Chicago.

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Speaker 4: Jim, from your point of view, you have.

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Speaker 1: Been a college basketball betting expert for a very long time.

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Speaker 1: I know deeply how connected you are both to betting

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Speaker 1: and college basketball. Does this tournament feel especially top heavy?

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Speaker 5: Yes?

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Speaker 6: I typically am trying to find the underdogs I like most,

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Speaker 6: and I'm setting up my final four with absolutely no

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Speaker 6: more than two to one seeds. Who else can I

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Speaker 6: get in the mix? To GetUp there, and I keep

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Speaker 6: coming back to probably three one seed, and at that

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Speaker 6: point I'm forcing somebody that's not a fourth one seed

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Speaker 6: to get in there. These four teams are so good

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Speaker 6: and analytically they've separated themselves. Whether you look at Ken, Palm, Bart, Torvik,

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Speaker 6: wherever you want your predictive rankings to come from, they've

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Speaker 6: separated there.

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Speaker 5: And even further down the bracket, it's top heavy.

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Speaker 6: I'll give a shout out to Will Warren. He's got

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Speaker 6: a great website writing about college hoops. But the top

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Speaker 6: like twenty five teams are better than a standard top

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Speaker 6: twenty five, and so that means your four seeds, your

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Speaker 6: five seeds. Perhaps that's going to lead to less upsets

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Speaker 6: in that part of the bracket too.

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Speaker 5: I hope not. We want a little early chaos.

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Speaker 6: Would love to see that some March madness magic, but

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Speaker 6: I think it's worth monitoring and potentially we do get

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Speaker 6: some sort of chalk heavy bracket as we go through

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Speaker 6: this big dance.

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Speaker 1: If you are putting in your the three top seeds

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Speaker 1: to make it, I'm assuming it's Duke Florida, Auburn, Houston

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Speaker 1: is out, or am I making an ass out of

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Speaker 1: you and me.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, how dare you?

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Speaker 3: Chad?

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Speaker 5: No, I would have Houston in there.

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Speaker 6: Actually, I just mean there is some question around Jaywin

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Speaker 6: Roberts's ankle, and they have got definitely the hardest eight

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Speaker 6: nine draw. With Gonzaga waiting there in the second round,

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Speaker 6: I think all the math will tell you that's a really,

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Speaker 6: really tough game for him. The one I don't have

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Speaker 6: right now, I don't should I spot spoil.

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Speaker 5: My final four is that am I allowed to.

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Speaker 4: Do whatever you want? Man, free flowing show, do whatever

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Speaker 4: you need to do.

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Speaker 6: The one I don't have is Florida, And that hurts

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Speaker 6: me because every time I watch them, I just can't

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Speaker 6: stop like professing how good they are. But they've become

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Speaker 6: such a darling. Everybody's picking them in the title, like

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Speaker 6: ESPN every show. Right after they're like, well it's got.

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Speaker 5: To be Florida.

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Speaker 6: They just won the SEC why can't they win the

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Speaker 6: national title? I have some questions there. I mean, they've

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Speaker 6: got great depth, but they if their three guards aren't

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Speaker 6: making shots, the perimeter can get a little bit dicey.

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Speaker 6: I've seen them get punked early in games a couple

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Speaker 6: of times. Georgia did it to him. My Missouri Tigers

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Speaker 6: did it to him in Gainesville, and then Todd Golden's

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Speaker 6: never won a tournament game, and that's not like an eliminator.

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Speaker 6: It's not impossible to go win the tournament, but you'd

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Speaker 6: like to have one under your belt before you have

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Speaker 6: to go win six, including two on the biggest stage.

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Speaker 6: So Florida is the one I'm barely leaving out. You

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Speaker 6: could probably leave Auburn out given the way their performance

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Speaker 6: has been lately. I just don't really like anybody else

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Speaker 6: in that region, so I kind of end up defaulting

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Speaker 6: to the Tigers there, and then Duke's just kind of

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Speaker 6: otherworldly right now, as long as flag is healthy.

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Speaker 1: You didn't give us your final four, though, because you

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Speaker 1: gave us three of the number one, and so now

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Speaker 1: that was good. Like we're going to foreshadow and tease

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Speaker 1: for a little bit later in the show, Simon.

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Speaker 4: Before we came on.

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Speaker 1: Earlier today, you were dropping hints about amongst your professional

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Speaker 1: gambling group chat like teams that were starting to get

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Speaker 1: talked about.

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Speaker 5: Can you share, Yeah, it's I would say, just from

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Speaker 5: the top.

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Speaker 2: The group I talk to are the guys I followed

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Speaker 2: for college basketball, are old, like average age seventy two,

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Speaker 2: like legit old dudes, and they are very about that

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Speaker 2: Big East action. They love the Big East like that is,

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Speaker 2: even though it's not what it used to be. They're

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Speaker 2: always biased towards it, and you know, obviously it's worked

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Speaker 2: out for him, right The Yukon has just been an

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Speaker 2: incredible run. That was a team they were biased to.

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Speaker 2: This year, it really is Saint John's and I would

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Speaker 2: love to get your perspective of it where everyone's talking

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Speaker 2: Duke Florida. These guys love not only the way that

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Speaker 2: Saint John's playing, but the fact of their coach has

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Speaker 2: been there before with multiple different programs and has done

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Speaker 2: it before. Is that a team that is no longer

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Speaker 2: a sleeper because they're so talked about but loved bhite people.

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Speaker 2: Are they still, as you view as a better a

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Speaker 2: team that not enough people are giving respect to because

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Speaker 2: you know, Saint John's is being painted as having a

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Speaker 2: really tough road to getting to the finals.

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Speaker 4: He's also the same age as all the people in

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Speaker 4: that group.

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Speaker 6: Text exactly, No, I'm a buyer of Saint John's. I

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Speaker 6: think that region is so loaded. It's probably my favorite, well,

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Speaker 6: well maybe not my favorite one.

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Speaker 5: But it's my.

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Speaker 6: Favorite two, it's my favorite three, probably my favorite four

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Speaker 6: of all those seed lines, So that makes it really

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Speaker 6: tough to pick. But Saint John's they you just know

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Speaker 6: they're never going to lay an egg, like you're getting

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Speaker 6: an A plus effort from them. Patino is such a

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Speaker 6: great motivator. The defense is absurd, the floor is really high, Like,

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Speaker 6: I don't think this team is remotely prone to an

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Speaker 6: upset because you're just you're not gonna get a stinker

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Speaker 6: on that end, and you have the ceiling outcomes where

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Speaker 6: if they make shots like that, that's the variance for

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Speaker 6: them is if they actually have a game where the

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Speaker 6: threes go in, they're gonna look incredible. They're just so

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Speaker 6: good at everything else, like the turnover margin, the rebounding margin.

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Speaker 5: They win those.

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Speaker 6: They stress you on the perimeter more than you're typically

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Speaker 6: used to because they've got size and athleticism and they're physical.

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Speaker 6: It's kind of a handsy Patino approach on the perimeter.

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Speaker 6: I'm sure those big East guys love seeing that. I

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Speaker 6: think they're just they' high floor. And then you get

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Speaker 6: them in the sweet sixteen against whether it's Texas Tech

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Speaker 6: or whoever. And then Florida and they lead eight. If

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Speaker 6: they make seven or eight threes, this team is unbeatable.

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Speaker 6: So I totally buy them as though.

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Speaker 5: So did you throw a little bet on twenty five

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Speaker 5: to one to win the title? Yeah? Yeah, I don't

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Speaker 5: mind that.

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Speaker 6: I mean it's analytically they haven't performed that well, like

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Speaker 6: the fact that they're not inside the top ten at

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Speaker 6: Ken Palm's a little surprising given their record, But I

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Speaker 6: think part of that is they didn't smack teams in

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Speaker 6: the in the non conference the way maybe they would

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Speaker 6: have hoped to, Like, they didn't beat teams by forty

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Speaker 6: they were winning by twenty five instead, And at that

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Speaker 6: point that's kind of a diminishing returns.

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Speaker 5: From me in terms of predictive value with big teams.

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Speaker 5: So I buy that.

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Speaker 1: You know, you just mentioned Saint John's. I feel like

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Speaker 1: it looks like they're the last two seed on the

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Speaker 1: two line right and now they've got to travel cross

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Speaker 1: country to go play in a game. Do you think

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Speaker 1: they would have been better off being the first three

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Speaker 1: seed and getting to go play in New Jersey?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I think they would have adored being in Newark,

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Speaker 6: even if it's Duke they're playing there. All the one

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Speaker 6: seeds are good, so there's not like a big downgrade there,

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Speaker 6: and the crowd they would have going Providence Newark. Everybody

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Speaker 6: talked about it last year with Yukon not having to

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Speaker 6: get on a flight, Like if you're just bussing everywhere

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Speaker 6: you need to go from New York, there is an

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Speaker 6: advantage in that, and I think just with the crowd

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Speaker 6: and with the travel ease, they probably would have preferred that.

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Speaker 6: I always think it would be fun if the selection

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Speaker 6: committee released one through sixty eight and every team got

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Speaker 6: to pick their spot in order, you know, like if

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Speaker 6: they would have said, well, yeah, we'll take the three

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Speaker 6: in the East over the two out west and kind

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Speaker 6: of let the chips fall where they may.

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Speaker 1: Isn't an amazing how Patino does it everywhere he goes.

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Speaker 1: Within moments he's got this team turned around, and moments

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Speaker 1: to me is a season or two right where it

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Speaker 1: doesn't matter what the school has been, He's always done it.

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Speaker 1: As a guy who watches so much college basketball, Jim,

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Speaker 1: what have you seen from Patino?

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Speaker 4: The way he coaches?

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Speaker 1: You mentioned the way he motivates that it just isn't

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Speaker 1: replicable from other coaches that only he can execute on

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Speaker 1: these quick tonearounds.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, the way he coaches effort is really stunning to me.

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Speaker 6: I mean, the guys play their tails off, and there's

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Speaker 6: a few other coaches that I think do it relatively consistently,

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Speaker 6: Like Buzz Williams has this Shaka smart kind of has

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Speaker 6: it the way the guys played defensively, but then he

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Speaker 6: pairs it with like really smart offensive basketball and they

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Speaker 6: can't shoot, but they know it, like they're fairly self aware,

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Speaker 6: and they get good shots and like, all right, what

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Speaker 6: are we actually good at. Let's not lean into a weakness,

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Speaker 6: Let's really dig into a strength. And I don't think

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Speaker 6: other coaches necessarily have that. And then just there's some

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Speaker 6: intrinsic parts of it too, of like instilling confidence, letting

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Speaker 6: guys like really go and be who they are as players.

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Speaker 6: I think other times, when maybe a guy transfers from

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Speaker 6: one coach to another, he's not sure where his role

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Speaker 6: is gonna fall, how he should play within a new system.

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Speaker 6: And it seems like Patino just gets these guys comfortable immediately,

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Speaker 6: and that's hard to do, especially he brought in some

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Speaker 6: guys with high usage rates at previous schools.

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Speaker 5: Davon Smith, Kadia, Richmond.

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Speaker 6: They've taken less shots this year, used less possessions and

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Speaker 6: still still seem very comfortable and winning helps. But you know,

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Speaker 6: it's kind of a what came first, the chicken or

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Speaker 6: the egg there.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's interesting. Kyla Parti too.

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Speaker 1: When he was recruiting at Kentucky, he would always talk

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Speaker 1: about and you would always hear the players talk about

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Speaker 1: He's not promised me a starting gig. He's not promising

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Speaker 1: me high usage rates. He's just telling me of how

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Speaker 1: he is going to use me and making me feel good.

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Speaker 1: And I like seeing like these old head coaches who

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Speaker 1: have become so adept at changing the way they coach

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Speaker 1: and communicating with players and then succeeding. I mean, look

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Speaker 1: Arkansas too, Kyla Parti's taking a team of the tournament again.

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Speaker 1: It would be a dream to get Kyla Pari and

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Speaker 1: Rit Patino, you know, a throwback to nineties college basketball,

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Speaker 1: early two thousands college basketball royalty going at each other again.

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Speaker 4: I think I haven't asked you a question yet.

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Speaker 1: I think both of these guys, I'm just pontificating, you know,

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Speaker 1: because it's because it's what I want to do right now.

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Speaker 1: All means I think these guys are tailor made for

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Speaker 1: this social media age.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 6: Well, I think there's some coaches that have seen the

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Speaker 6: changing of the tides and have been like, I don't

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Speaker 6: want to be a part of this version. And those

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Speaker 6: two have adapted so smoothly. I mean I used to

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Speaker 6: always call Cali Pari like the car salesman, Like he

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Speaker 6: can kind of figure out the pitch to anybody, and

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Speaker 6: even as generations change, he can scale that pitch to

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Speaker 6: whoever he needs too.

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Speaker 5: He's a good talker, that's for sure.

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Speaker 6: And Patino clearly has that gear too, and that helps

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Speaker 6: with recruiting, It helps with motivating, it helps with game planning.

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Speaker 6: I have been very impressed, and yeah, it would be

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Speaker 6: funny to see Kentucky Louisville rivalry reborn with those coaches,

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Speaker 6: only it's Saint John's Arkansas instead. They're different shades of

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Speaker 6: red in that one.

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Speaker 1: I think I think calling the car salesman diminishes his

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Speaker 1: skill because that feels like a pejorative.

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Speaker 5: That's true, that's true.

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Speaker 4: He's guys.

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Speaker 1: You put them on social media like Patino this year

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Speaker 1: the locker room, the way those clips have come out,

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Speaker 1: that has been glorious. Those are perfect recruiting tools to

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Speaker 1: get new players coming in. Simon, you're shaking your head.

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Speaker 1: I feel like you've fallen in love with Patino this year.

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Speaker 7: I have.

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Speaker 2: And this is someone that legitily hated this guy, Like,

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Speaker 2: you know, yeah, he rubbed me the wrong way, brother,

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Speaker 2: Like his whole thing of being like, I'm the shit,

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Speaker 2: You're all idiots. You know, obviously we know what he

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Speaker 2: did off the court. I don't really hold that against

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Speaker 2: It was more about his person on the court. Now

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Speaker 2: I've come full three to six round. I'm like, oh,

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Speaker 2: talk your shit, Brick, like you're that dude, you're running

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Speaker 2: the show. And the fact that he's turned Saint John's around.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think in my lifetime, Chad, I

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Speaker 2: don't think they were good in my lifetime. Like that

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Speaker 2: was all before my really coming into college basketball. Then

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Speaker 2: being relevant and especially being the Northeast, you always hear

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Speaker 2: about them and they should be able to recruit. They're

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Speaker 2: the team of New York. All this nonsense never mattered.

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Speaker 2: And they bring him the right coach and he turns

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Speaker 2: on around. That's why we love I mean, you're talking about,

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Speaker 2: you know, coaches going to different places like it's It's

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Speaker 2: one of my favorite parts off college basketball is how

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Speaker 2: important the head coach is because it is just five starters, right,

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Speaker 2: and you get the right guy in there. He brings

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Speaker 2: in the right talent and he could change everything. And

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Speaker 2: you know you're talking Calipari. I think anyone can remember, right,

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Speaker 2: New Hampshire was that what the school was a turn around?

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Speaker 2: And then with mass UMass and then went to Memphis,

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Speaker 2: and it's like these schools that are irrelevant you never

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Speaker 2: hear about. That's what great coaches can do, right, They

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Speaker 2: can go there and make them somebody. So yeah, I

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Speaker 2: know this is becoming a heavy Saint John's podcast, but

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Speaker 2: it's like every professional better I've talked to in the

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Speaker 2: last three or four days, they just keep bringing them

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Speaker 2: up and they just keep saying like this is the

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Speaker 2: exact type of team and guy that pulls off a

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Speaker 2: run on us in a year where I don't know

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Speaker 2: if you have the same view of it, Jim, but

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Speaker 2: it really is no one. There is no guarantee like

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Speaker 2: we've had Yukon the last two years being the kind

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Speaker 2: of guaranteed team.

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Speaker 5: This year, it really is pick or poison.

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Speaker 2: Like everyone's gonna look like an idiot and someone's gonna

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Speaker 2: look like they're really smart the end of it, because

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Speaker 2: it is all so many random teams. Is there really

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Speaker 2: a team that you know to you person that's jumping

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Speaker 2: out to no one's talking about or is it kind

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Speaker 2: of like you just said, is it the four or

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Speaker 2: five really good teams and the rest are kind of trailing.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, that's that's more what it's been. It's basically like

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Speaker 6: we have four Yukon's this year. Like if you kind

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Speaker 6: of had really elite competition last year, maybe they would

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Speaker 6: have run into some some trouble in the final four

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Speaker 6: and Zach Edy tried, but you know that perduc team

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Speaker 6: just wasn't quite on their level. I'd see, like if

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Speaker 6: we get a Florida versus Duke final or Houston versus

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Speaker 6: Duke semifinal, like that could go in any direction, just

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Speaker 6: clash of the Titans kind of thing. Further down like

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Speaker 6: the twos and three seeds, maybe somebody can win, Like

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Speaker 6: we got Tennessee just knocked off Auburn on a neutral court. Okay,

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Speaker 6: maybe Auburn's a little bit vulnerable. Florida lost at Georgia,

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Speaker 6: lost at.

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Speaker 5: Home in the Missouri.

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Speaker 6: Like, these teams aren't invincible, but I think when you know,

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Speaker 6: push comes to shove on the biggest stage, we're going

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Speaker 6: to see them at their best, their best versions. And

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Speaker 6: I would be pretty surprised if any of those four

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Speaker 6: one seeds went down before Sweet sixteen, and even Elite

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Speaker 6: eight I think would surprise me a little bit.

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Speaker 1: So we just talked a lot about Saint John's, but

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Speaker 1: also in that region Gonzaga, Georgia and you talked about

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Speaker 1: earlier in the show. Saint John's is not a team

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Speaker 1: that any of their predictive analytics sort of what the

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Speaker 1: selection committee is looking at to make decisions, we're anywhere

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Speaker 1: near the Gonzaga. Nearly all of their predictive analytics were

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Speaker 1: in the top ten. They just didn't have a lot

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Speaker 1: of good wins. We're talking about Thursday games. Is Gonzaga

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Speaker 1: a team that could be one of your favorite picks

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Speaker 1: for Thursday? If not, who are your favorite picks for Thursday?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, this one's kind of odd.

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Speaker 6: I actually lean towards Georgia there, despite as good as

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Speaker 6: Gonzaga has been and Georgia on the spread, I will

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Speaker 6: advance Gonzaga, but that spreads around a touchdown that's.

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Speaker 5: A little too much.

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Speaker 6: George's played a similar kind of copy of Gonzaga, like

398
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Speaker 6: Florida is somewhat modeled after the Gonzaga approach of two bigs,

399
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Speaker 6: play up and down, really bludging the rim. And Georgia

400
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Speaker 6: got up by twenty five against Florida. Now they let

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Speaker 6: them all the way back in had to win in

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Speaker 6: the final minute, But I still think it's representative of

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Speaker 6: what they can do against that kind of approach, and

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Speaker 6: they've got a ton of physicality. They've got like six

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Speaker 6: different bigs they can rotate against Ek and Gonzaga's front line.

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Speaker 6: So leaning away from there, Memphis is one of my

407
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Speaker 6: favorite first round that's they are an underdog in a

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Speaker 6: five to twelve game as the five seed, that's going

409
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Speaker 6: to catch a lot of eyes. But the big thing

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Speaker 6: for me there is Memphis is poor in predictive analytics

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Speaker 6: because they're terrible against bad teams. Like they are the

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Speaker 6: opposite of a computer trigger, where when they play somebody

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Speaker 6: they're a twenty point favorite against, they win by seven,

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Speaker 6: and when they're a thirty point favorite, they win by

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Speaker 6: seven again. Like they just don't really blow teams out.

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Speaker 6: But if you put a team across from them that

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Speaker 6: they view as their equal and top twenty five, top

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Speaker 6: fifty ish competition. That's when gozer, that's when Memphis shines.

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Speaker 6: And I think we'll see that against Colorado State. Maybe

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Speaker 6: it'll chip on the shoulder like we're underdogs against the

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Speaker 6: twelve seed. After all we did in the non conference,

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Speaker 6: they played one of the best schedules of anybody in

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Speaker 6: the entire country, flew all over the country, so I'm

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Speaker 6: not worried about them going all the way across to

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Speaker 6: Seattle for this game. I think it sets up well

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Speaker 6: for Penny Hardaway to play the disrespect card in the locker.

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Speaker 5: Room and you get a Memphis win there in the

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Speaker 5: first round.

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Speaker 1: Well, look, Memphis, a lot of people would argue, especially

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Speaker 1: because of their injury issues, probably shouldn't be higher than

431
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Speaker 1: an eight seed, and so the five seed is a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a surprise.

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Speaker 4: Also, I like that you're.

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Speaker 1: Picking Memphis because that is the twelve to five matchup that,

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Speaker 1: if I had to bet, was going to be the

436
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Speaker 1: one where the majority of bracketeers.

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Speaker 4: Aren't choosing the twelve.

438
00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:25,800
Speaker 6: Yeah, and it wouldn't mathematically make sense for them to

439
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 6: do it. Like I couldn't hold it against anybody to say, look,

440
00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:30,320
Speaker 6: Colorado States favorite, Why wouldn't I try to get some

441
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:33,760
Speaker 6: upset points if my pool has it? But yeah, I

442
00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:36,560
Speaker 6: just I think the way, you know, the stat that

443
00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:38,199
Speaker 6: I keep going back to for that game is if

444
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:41,360
Speaker 6: you filter Bart Torovik's website for games just against top

445
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:45,439
Speaker 6: fifty opponents, Memphis is twenty fifth and Colorado State's one hundredth,

446
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:48,879
Speaker 6: and they're both playing a top fifty opponent here, and

447
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,440
Speaker 6: yet the team that's way way lower in that kind

448
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:56,000
Speaker 6: of a stratosphere of games is the favorite. Yeah, I'll

449
00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:58,560
Speaker 6: at least take the points there, and again I think

450
00:21:58,600 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 6: Memphis wins out right.

451
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:01,880
Speaker 4: Who else are you eyeing for Thursday?

452
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 6: Some of my stronger leans here are totals, So can

453
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:08,920
Speaker 6: I go in that direction?

454
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,400
Speaker 4: We accept those, right, it's a betting podcast.

455
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:15,639
Speaker 1: We're not interested in just sort of the bad bets

456
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:18,119
Speaker 1: that you can parlay into your favorite team. We want

457
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:22,400
Speaker 1: the best bets with the best edges, no matter the market.

458
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 6: Beautiful, I can do that, Okay, two totals I like

459
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 6: quite a bit, high Point and Purdue the over. I'm

460
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:30,920
Speaker 6: actually surprised this one hasn't gone up from one fifty

461
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:32,440
Speaker 6: three and a half. I thought the market would kind

462
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 6: of jump on this one. The tempos the question mark

463
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:37,200
Speaker 6: is it going to be fast enough, But I think

464
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 6: the efficiency is going to be ridiculous in this game.

465
00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:42,119
Speaker 6: I don't really see how either team gets to stop.

466
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:45,640
Speaker 6: The problem that High Point had in their rare games

467
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 6: where they did have issues was a really dominant ball

468
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 6: screen point guard operator that's comfortable in the mid range

469
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 6: against their drop coverage. And Braden Smith's probably the best

470
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,919
Speaker 6: point guard in that system in the entire country. I

471
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,640
Speaker 6: think he'll light them up both as a scorer and passer.

472
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,600
Speaker 6: But then the other end, High Point top twenty five offense,

473
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:05,879
Speaker 6: they get downhill, they've got guys that can get to

474
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,119
Speaker 6: the rim, They've got a great offensive rebounder in Bodo

475
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:12,400
Speaker 6: Bodo in the paint, and Perdue's rim defense is non existent,

476
00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:15,000
Speaker 6: like one of the worst in the country despite being

477
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 6: a Big ten team.

478
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 5: They don't have any shot blocking.

479
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 6: I think that's going to be a real problem and

480
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 6: you just see points back and forth. The other big total.

481
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 6: I like Clemson and McNeice the under in that one,

482
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:29,680
Speaker 6: and this one is really tempo based, where I think

483
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:33,200
Speaker 6: both will slow each other down. They kind of press

484
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:35,680
Speaker 6: to slow the game down, Like Clemson doesn't even try

485
00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:36,840
Speaker 6: to get steals in their press.

486
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:37,560
Speaker 5: They're just like.

487
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,480
Speaker 6: Making you use the shot clock, get far down into

488
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:42,680
Speaker 6: it and have to take a tough one with five

489
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:43,919
Speaker 6: or ten seconds on the clock.

490
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:48,440
Speaker 5: And if you extrapolate that over the course of a.

491
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:50,440
Speaker 6: Game where both teams are doing that to each other,

492
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 6: I think the possession count comes in way under what's

493
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 6: projected here in one hundred and thirty four and a

494
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 6: half one hundred and thirty four.

495
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:57,720
Speaker 5: I've taken quite a bit of that as well.

496
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 4: Do you have any picks, games, sides.

497
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:07,360
Speaker 1: Totals that you love for Friday, Because don't forget, we're

498
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:10,880
Speaker 1: doing this Tuesday. People get forty eight hours to sort

499
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:12,880
Speaker 1: of digest, so Friday's includers here.

500
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:13,920
Speaker 4: Nothing has happened yet.

501
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:15,200
Speaker 5: Yeah.

502
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 6: I don't even think I was doing that intentionally, going

503
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,639
Speaker 6: with a bunch of Thursday games there. But the more

504
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 6: I've investigated the Saint Mary's Vanderbilt game, I end up

505
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,120
Speaker 6: leaning more and more towards the Gales. I just think

506
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:29,680
Speaker 6: they are so good at making games their style, and

507
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 6: this is a really big clash of styles. Vanderbilt wants

508
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 6: to run, they want to press, they want to get

509
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:37,400
Speaker 6: up and down. And Saint Mary's like they see Gonzaga

510
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:39,520
Speaker 6: three times a year and they makeing Zaga play in

511
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 6: the mud. They slog it up, and I think Randy

512
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 6: Bennett can do that to Vanderbilt. Vandy played Drake early

513
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 6: in the year, which is a somewhat comparable team where

514
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:52,480
Speaker 6: they want to play super duper slow, and although Vandy

515
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:55,160
Speaker 6: force twenty turnovers, Drake still won that game by ten

516
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:57,640
Speaker 6: because they dominated the glass. I think Saint Mary's can

517
00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 6: do that. So I laid some three and a half.

518
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,239
Speaker 6: I think it's more four in the market now, but

519
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 6: I think that's an okay price as well Saint Mary's.

520
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 6: And let's see one other Friday bet.

521
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 5: How about Oklahoma.

522
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:14,199
Speaker 6: I think Yukon's maybe gotten a little overvalued in the

523
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:16,159
Speaker 6: market just because of how good they've been in the

524
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:18,719
Speaker 6: tournament the last two years, the name value of Danny Hurley.

525
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 6: But these two teams are like coin flip and every

526
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:24,399
Speaker 6: analytical ranking. So you're gonna give me four and a

527
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:27,440
Speaker 6: half points, and I think Oklahoma's got pretty easy ways

528
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:31,440
Speaker 6: to score, getting downhill off the dribble. Yukon fouls a ton.

529
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 6: Oklahoma gets to the free throw line. I think they're

530
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:35,800
Speaker 6: going to live the line, gets some easy points, and

531
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 6: Oklahoma has not lost a game to a non conference opponent.

532
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:41,760
Speaker 6: They're like six and one on neutral floors against really

533
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:44,240
Speaker 6: good teams. Their only loss was to Kentucky by one

534
00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:46,880
Speaker 6: in the SEC Tournament on the buzzer beater. I think

535
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 6: they're at the very least in that game and could

536
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 6: knock off Yukon.

537
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 1: We still haven't gotten your third Final four. I do

538
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 1: want to do that after this, Simon. Back in nineteen

539
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 1: seventy seven, Milwaukee's own Marquette University was the toast of

540
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:12,639
Speaker 1: college basketball, winning the NCAA Championship under the leadership of

541
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 1: charismatic head coach Al McGuire. It was this week forty

542
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:18,439
Speaker 1: eight years ago that McGuire got asked if he'd be

543
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:21,200
Speaker 1: wearing a luxury jacket on the sidelines for the tournament,

544
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:24,399
Speaker 1: to which McGuire responded, absolutely, You got to wear the

545
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:27,399
Speaker 1: blue blazer when you go to the Big Dance, And

546
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,480
Speaker 1: just like that, this beloved tournament became known as the

547
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 1: Big Dance. Coach McGuire knew the importance of looking his

548
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:38,160
Speaker 1: best and understood that when you're comfortable, you perform at

549
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:42,200
Speaker 1: your best. Just like our beloved sponsor Tommy John. Go

550
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551
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554
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555
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Speaker 1: will you be wearing Tommy John in twenty twenty five?

556
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Speaker 5: Because comfort is king?

557
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558
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559
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561
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562
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Speaker 5: Who's the first play you think of? Chowne here, Marquette?

563
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:26,640
Speaker 5: Is it d Wade? Jimmy Butler?

564
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:28,439
Speaker 4: It's definitely d Wade.

565
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 1: But you know, I'm an old head, so like when

566
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 1: I think about Marquette, I do think about al McGuire

567
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 1: because my sort of seminal moments of college basketball were

568
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 1: al McGuire and dick Enberg doing Saturday afternoon games on

569
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 1: NBC and so you know, don't forget Al McGuire basically

570
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 1: retired after that seventy seven championship and became the original

571
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 1: Dick ev.

572
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 4: He was amazing as a broadcaster.

573
00:27:56,480 --> 00:28:01,119
Speaker 1: So I actually tend to think of Al McGuire when

574
00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:02,359
Speaker 1: I think of Marquette University.

575
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 5: I was so glad I am bias.

576
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:07,640
Speaker 2: I think the best era was that two thousands twenty

577
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 2: ten era. So for me, Travis Deaner, man, that's that's

578
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,320
Speaker 2: my guy from Marquette, Like, I missed those days of

579
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 2: having guys like him that are there forever huge personality scrappy.

580
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 2: I definitely missed that era of Marquette.

581
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 4: Jim So I'm Milwaukee guy, who do you think that

582
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 4: from Marquette?

583
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:27,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's probably Wade.

584
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 6: I remember where I was when he went for the

585
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:32,440
Speaker 6: triple double to beat Kentucky to go to the Final four,

586
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:33,120
Speaker 6: So that that.

587
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:33,919
Speaker 5: Has stuck with me.

588
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 6: But Deaner's a great a great name pull too. I

589
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 6: mean he was on that team and stuck around and

590
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 6: they were just they won that the TBT, the basketball

591
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 6: tournament that happens in this summer, and Deaner hit a

592
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:47,240
Speaker 6: buzzer beater or late game winner in that when he

593
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:48,960
Speaker 6: was still one of the old heads on the team,

594
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 6: and it was great to see him back out there

595
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:53,800
Speaker 6: with a bunch of guys ten years younger and still contributing.

596
00:28:56,160 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 1: I also would like to say that when d Wade

597
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 1: had that run in the tournament, I was covering the

598
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 1: tournament in San Antonio for ESPN and I went out.

599
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 1: I finished my story, and like a lot of times

600
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 1: when you're writing some of these things, you pre write

601
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 1: the stories because the deadlines are so tight that you

602
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 1: kind of got a tournament early and hope that they

603
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:27,200
Speaker 1: come close to what your narrative is. So I turned

604
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 1: in my story and probably needed, like you know, if

605
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 1: things went right, needed to change a couple hundred words.

606
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 1: It wasn't about Marquette. It was about the games I

607
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 1: was covering in San Antonio. I went out that night

608
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 1: and got so drunk with a friend of the podcast

609
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 1: Seth Wickersham and current ESPN College basketball or college football

610
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 1: writer Pete Famil, who was not at ESPN at the time.

611
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 1: I couldn't function the next day, Like I couldn't get

612
00:29:57,920 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 1: out of bed.

613
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 4: I was puke everywhere.

614
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 1: I stood in the shower for like twenty five minutes

615
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 1: hoping everything would clear up, and then I got a

616
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 1: call from my editor. I needed to rewrite the whole

617
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 1: freaking story and I could not. I could not even

618
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 1: see straight. So whenever I think about d Wade in

619
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 1: that final four run, I think about covering the NCAA

620
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 1: tournament in San Antonio.

621
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 5: How he ruined your life for a day, everything got ruined.

622
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 5: That's a nightmare, fucking terrible.

623
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 4: Sam, And I don't know if you wanted to ask

624
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 4: a question. If not, I'll.

625
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got the one I can't believe and asked

626
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:38,360
Speaker 2: yet give me the underdogs?

627
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 5: You like outright either Thursday, Friday, whatever?

628
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 8: You got first one you see San Diego, And I

629
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 8: know this isn't you know, a crazy one with the

630
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 8: trendy and it's only plus two and a half, so

631
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 8: we're not going nuts with an outright type dog here.

632
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 6: But I just I love this team all season and

633
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 6: I like the matchup. They mix in a bunch of

634
00:30:57,400 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 6: z own which is going to keep the Michigan seven

635
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 6: foot away from the rim a little bit. Maybe you

636
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 6: get beat up on the offensive glass, but I think

637
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 6: first shot defense will be pretty good there, and they're

638
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 6: they're gonna force they could force twenty turnovers in this game.

639
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 6: Michigan is really sloppy with the ball. The turnover rate

640
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 6: defensively for u C. San Diego super high. They've got

641
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 6: the guy Hayden Gray that leads the country and steal

642
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 6: rate so easy buckets going the other way. And then

643
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 6: Neewa Tate Jones their their conference player of the year

644
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 6: point guard, kind of six to six jumbo point guard,

645
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,719
Speaker 6: New Zealander. He gets a lot of headlines and he should.

646
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 6: He'll be a very fun guy to watch here. But

647
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 6: they got a shooter named Tyler mcguy that is like

648
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 6: almost goal Ky esque in his like total indiscriminate bombing

649
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:42,320
Speaker 6: like he will. His name's my guy, Yes, Tyler mcguy.

650
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 6: I love it looks like McGee, but yeah, pronounced mc guy.

651
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 4: He's now Tyler Simon's guy.

652
00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 5: Is my guy?

653
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 6: Yes, yes, my guy, my guy. It's just a it's

654
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 6: a fantastic nickname to go with. But yeah, he'll take

655
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 6: twelve or fifteen threes if they let him really quick release.

656
00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 6: And if he hits six or seven, maybe he won't

657
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:03,480
Speaker 6: hit ten like Goalkie, but he hit six or seven

658
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 6: against the reigning Big Ten Tournament champion. I think people

659
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 6: are going to take a little bit of notice. So

660
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:11,360
Speaker 6: you see San Diego is won there for sure, and

661
00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 6: then right next to them in the bracket.

662
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 5: I like Yale. There's some situational stuff that's brutal for.

663
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 6: Them with having played Sunday and then they have to

664
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 6: go and play at altitude on Thursday in Denver. I

665
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 6: don't love that, But the matchup with Texas A and

666
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 6: M doesn't scare me that much. You know, Texas A

667
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 6: and M's huge strength, getting all over the offensive glass.

668
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 6: They try to win the extras, win the possession battle,

669
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 6: and Yale can compete there. It's a really good defensive

670
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 6: rebounding team. They have not seen anyone quite like Texas

671
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 6: A and M. But I think back to nine years

672
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 6: ago when Yale beat Baylor in the first round. They

673
00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 6: still got the same coach. They were somewhat shorter in

674
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 6: the front court, but they were physical and they kept

675
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,959
Speaker 6: an awesome offensive rebounding team in Baylor at Bay. I mean,

676
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 6: they didn't, you know, shut him down in that area,

677
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 6: but they were able to handle them and then they

678
00:32:57,640 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 6: won out right.

679
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:00,240
Speaker 5: I think they can do the same thing too to

680
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:01,000
Speaker 5: Texas A and M.

681
00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 6: Here Texas A and M's guards will take a bunch

682
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 6: of bad shots, they'll chuck, and Yale takes better shots

683
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 6: and has better shooters, so I'll ride with Yale.

684
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 1: There got a local West Hartford kid on the Yale

685
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 1: basketball team this year. Jim, I kind of feel like

686
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:21,800
Speaker 1: you just mentioned Michigan and U see San Diego. I

687
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 1: feel like Michigan got fucked, Like how are they a

688
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 1: five seed the way they ran through the tournament? And

689
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 1: not only a five seed, but they're the last team

690
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 1: playing on Sunday and now they've got to travel cross

691
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:37,959
Speaker 1: country play a late Thursday game. Even if you think

692
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 1: they're prime for an upset, because they've got some weaknesses,

693
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 1: they're not a perfect team being a five seed. When

694
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:49,760
Speaker 1: you beat Wisconsin twice and Wisconsin's a three seed, do

695
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 1: you feel like that was a fair seeding by the

696
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 1: selection committee?

697
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:54,960
Speaker 5: Not really.

698
00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 6: The one part of it is just like you go

699
00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:00,480
Speaker 6: in knowing they don't care about the Big Ten tournament game.

700
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 6: It's like their pencils down feed up having a cocktail

701
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 6: for completing the bracket already, and that's unfortunate. It sucks

702
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 6: for Michigan because they clearly earned a higher spot by

703
00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:11,880
Speaker 6: winning that game.

704
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 5: But it's unfortunately what happened.

705
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 6: And really I thought the committee did a bad job

706
00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:18,359
Speaker 6: with this entire Denver site. Like you've got a ton

707
00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 6: of teams that played on Sunday that have to go

708
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 6: to altitude, and like VCU played Sunday, they have to

709
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 6: go to play BYU, who's an altitude comfortable team. Wisconsin

710
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 6: played Sunday, has to go play Montana, who plays in

711
00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:32,839
Speaker 6: an altitude conference on short rest, Like they really gave

712
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 6: some teams some tough draws. And part of that is

713
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 6: it's dumb at this point to have two Western sites

714
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 6: when none of the Western teams are good, so you

715
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 6: get end up shipping a bunch of Eastern teams out

716
00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:46,839
Speaker 6: there in the first round. But I thought they did

717
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 6: an especially bad job just kind of fumbling the bag

718
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:51,640
Speaker 6: with where they put those teams.

719
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 1: They did an especially bad job with the tournament overall.

720
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 1: Like it's been a controversy since the second you know,

721
00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:00,560
Speaker 1: North Carolina got in, but a lot of seating, a

722
00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 1: lot of the games, a lot of the potential matchups.

723
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:06,920
Speaker 1: It's kind of awful. I feel disgusted by all of it.

724
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:10,479
Speaker 1: We're gonna have Evan on in a minute and He's

725
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:15,480
Speaker 1: got a great stat. Last year, teams that received more

726
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:20,400
Speaker 1: than half the spread bets went sixty eight percent against

727
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:25,319
Speaker 1: the spread. That's an ROI of over thirty percent. The

728
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 1: previous eighteen tournaments, teams that are with that public had

729
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:31,719
Speaker 1: gone under the public teams had gone under forty eight

730
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 1: percent against the spread. Have recent changes to college basketball

731
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 1: made chalk success more inevitable? We talk like this is

732
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 1: a very top heavy tournament, Like do you see the

733
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:50,319
Speaker 1: market catching up this year or is it going to

734
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 1: continue to be the way it was last year.

735
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:56,719
Speaker 6: I would hope and expect the market catches up a

736
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 6: little bit and makes some of the underdogs a little

737
00:35:59,080 --> 00:35:59,720
Speaker 6: more viable.

738
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:01,720
Speaker 5: But there's a chance.

739
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:04,240
Speaker 6: And with the you know I mentioned earlier the strength

740
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 6: of the top twenty five or so teams, that part

741
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:09,920
Speaker 6: of that is the shifting of the sport with the portal,

742
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 6: and you know, the best man major players can immediately

743
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 6: go beyond a better team and get a bag. And

744
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:19,040
Speaker 6: of course there are guys that transfer down and there

745
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 6: are stars in that area as well. At Colorado State's

746
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:25,359
Speaker 6: best players from Colorado, like he transferred down there and

747
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:28,200
Speaker 6: he's an All American caliber guy. But those are going

748
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:31,240
Speaker 6: to be fewer and far between compared to the internal

749
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:34,879
Speaker 6: development that mid majors often we're able to do. So

750
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:39,560
Speaker 6: I worry that maybe there will be fewer upsets going forward.

751
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:42,239
Speaker 6: It does help this year that we got a lot

752
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:44,680
Speaker 6: of the best teams won their mid major conference tournaments.

753
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:47,400
Speaker 6: That gives me hope for the strength of the twelves

754
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 6: and thirteens and fourteen seeds. But man, yeah, it does

755
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 6: feel like there is starting to be a shift a

756
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:54,520
Speaker 6: little more clo closer and closer where.

757
00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 5: The talent is is on those top teams.

758
00:36:57,040 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 6: Maybe maybe this is being the last year of the

759
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:02,120
Speaker 6: COVID year will help where the you know, all those

760
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:05,200
Speaker 6: fifth year veterans going up to a power conference team

761
00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:06,200
Speaker 6: won't be there anymore.

762
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 5: But that could still be the case this year.

763
00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:11,120
Speaker 6: With that that's sixty eight percent stat I hope that's

764
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:12,880
Speaker 6: not the case. Come on, don't let the public feast

765
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:13,279
Speaker 6: that much.

766
00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 1: Well, look related to that, who are the money line

767
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:20,280
Speaker 1: favorites that you can't see losing the first two days early?

768
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:24,280
Speaker 6: Like I don't think Akron has a chance against Arizona.

769
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 6: Like the style is a problem. They want to run,

770
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:29,319
Speaker 6: they want to get up and down and Arizona is like, good,

771
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:32,240
Speaker 6: let's do this. That sounds great to us. They played

772
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:34,160
Speaker 6: Sanford early in the year. That's also a team that

773
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 6: wants to run. They won by thirty. That's not an

774
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 6: exact matchup, exact similar comparison, but I think that's that's

775
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:43,920
Speaker 6: part of it. And in Michigan State Bryant, I know

776
00:37:43,960 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 6: it's like fifteen points, but that one would stun me.

777
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:50,799
Speaker 6: And Brian's entire like identity is being bigger and more

778
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 6: athletic than their mid major brethren. They got a bunch

779
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:55,840
Speaker 6: of down transfers, and then you go against a huge,

780
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 6: physical Michigan State team that can just like match and

781
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:02,759
Speaker 6: exceed everything Bryant brings to the table that worries me.

782
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:05,560
Speaker 6: Matt Cox said it best on our podcast. He's like

783
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:06,840
Speaker 6: to pull out some of these upsets. I think you

784
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:08,920
Speaker 6: got to be different. You can't be better at what

785
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:11,759
Speaker 6: the team does across from you. And both of those

786
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:15,359
Speaker 6: are matchups where they're like a similar style, not quite

787
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:17,840
Speaker 6: a clone, but of the favorite and the favorites just

788
00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 6: better at their game.

789
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:20,719
Speaker 5: If you're in a survivor pool, who are you going

790
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:21,240
Speaker 5: with first?

791
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:25,400
Speaker 6: Arizona's probably one think they might struggle against Oregon in

792
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:27,640
Speaker 6: that next round. Oregon's just a tricky tournament team and

793
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:29,719
Speaker 6: then boom, you run into Duke, so you're not going

794
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 6: to need to hang on to Arizona for a while.

795
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:36,000
Speaker 6: Oregon could be one again with Duke lurking right there. Kentucky,

796
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 6: I think would be a good one. Troy could be

797
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:42,480
Speaker 6: a somewhat tough matchup because they're athletic, but Kentucky got

798
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 6: Lamont Butler in there, and their draw is kind of tricky.

799
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:48,560
Speaker 6: I think the second round matchup, whether it's Illinois, Texas

800
00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:51,719
Speaker 6: or Xavier, is tricky, So Kentucky's probably a good one

801
00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 6: to go with early. I think they can lose to

802
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:55,600
Speaker 6: anyone except Troy and just get him to the first

803
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:56,719
Speaker 6: round and then you can throw them out of your

804
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:57,360
Speaker 6: survivor pool.

805
00:38:57,560 --> 00:39:00,880
Speaker 1: All right, Secon, We're we're gonna get to Gym's final

806
00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 1: team in his final four, and we'll bring in Evan.

807
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:07,400
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808
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828
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Speaker 4: It's all right.

829
00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:20,279
Speaker 1: We've talked about Auburn, We've talked about Duke, We've talked

830
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:24,880
Speaker 1: about Houston. That is seventy five percent of your final four. Jim,

831
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 1: we can't keep the people hanging any longer finish it off.

832
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:33,279
Speaker 6: Yeah, I said this was the West was my favorite, two,

833
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:35,480
Speaker 6: Saint John's my favorite, three, Texas Tech my favorite.

834
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:37,920
Speaker 5: Four Maryland. I'm going with Texas Tech.

835
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:40,759
Speaker 6: And maybe there's some stubbornness for me here because I

836
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:43,279
Speaker 6: picked them to the final four in the preseason when

837
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:45,759
Speaker 6: they were like barely a top twenty five team, and

838
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:47,640
Speaker 6: now they're sitting here seventh and ken pound. I'm like,

839
00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:50,040
Speaker 6: why would I turn my back on myself on past

840
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:52,319
Speaker 6: jim at this point considering how good they've been.

841
00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:54,359
Speaker 5: The concern is the.

842
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 6: Injury stuff, the nagging injuries for Darien Williams, Chance McMillan,

843
00:40:57,680 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 6: two guys that sat up in the Big twelve tournament.

844
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:01,879
Speaker 6: I think they're going to be close enough to full

845
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:04,520
Speaker 6: strength this first weekend and hopefully by the second weekend

846
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 6: when they would play a Saint John's or potentially a Florida.

847
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:11,359
Speaker 6: I think they'll be closer to one hundred percent by then.

848
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:14,239
Speaker 6: And I just like the coach here, kranp mcchasm's one

849
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:17,440
Speaker 6: everywhere he's been. I like the versatility the lineup. They

850
00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 6: can play big, they can play small, they can foll

851
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:21,880
Speaker 6: out the court with shooting, they can put a defense

852
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:24,640
Speaker 6: first lineup out there. I think they've got a lot

853
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:28,160
Speaker 6: of different ways to win. And when you're playing Florida

854
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 6: and Saint John's back to back, two very different teams,

855
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 6: I think you've got to be that kind of a chameleon.

856
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:35,200
Speaker 6: And I believe Texas Tech can get it done and

857
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:37,879
Speaker 6: be the one non one seed in my final four.

858
00:41:38,600 --> 00:41:40,839
Speaker 1: Don't turn your back on past, Jim. That would be

859
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:43,839
Speaker 1: like turning your back on your roots.

860
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:47,880
Speaker 5: Oh there he is there. You get it, Yeah, you

861
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 5: get it?

862
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:51,080
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, Oh God, even Simon laughs.

863
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:54,760
Speaker 1: Simon a lot of times when I, you know, indulge

864
00:41:54,840 --> 00:42:00,839
Speaker 1: myself with these terrible, bad jokes, I'm I'm looking at

865
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:05,000
Speaker 1: the script and so I don't see everyone's faces. But

866
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:07,400
Speaker 1: this time I wanted to see everyone's faces when I

867
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:10,560
Speaker 1: said it. Because Simon oftentimes does not laugh. He just

868
00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:13,239
Speaker 1: sort of crinkles his eyes a little bit, and so

869
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 1: I don't know if he's responding.

870
00:42:15,080 --> 00:42:16,480
Speaker 4: This time he chuckled a little bit.

871
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:19,239
Speaker 5: And that got to be good. Brother. I'm tough. God,

872
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:20,440
Speaker 5: be actually good for me to laugh.

873
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:24,319
Speaker 2: I can't fake it anymore with you.

874
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:25,560
Speaker 5: Six seven years in.

875
00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:30,640
Speaker 1: Wow, you know I was gonna say something but weave

876
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 1: it at that. All right, let's bring in director of Research,

877
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:38,200
Speaker 1: Evan Abrams. He's gonna give us the last word with

878
00:42:38,239 --> 00:42:42,040
Speaker 1: some betting trends to know this weekend.

879
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:44,200
Speaker 4: Evan, so glad to have you back.

880
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:47,600
Speaker 7: Well, what's up, guys, it's up, Jim. I got a

881
00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:49,320
Speaker 7: bunch of stuff here. Yeah, I got a bunch of

882
00:42:49,320 --> 00:42:51,560
Speaker 7: stuff here. So I'm gonna roll through it. Stop me

883
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:53,759
Speaker 7: down when you want me to. But just a bunch

884
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 7: of different information. We're gonna start with free throws. A

885
00:42:57,120 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 7: video just went out on Action Network kind of about

886
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:02,080
Speaker 7: the same concepts, so check it out there for more info.

887
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:04,760
Speaker 7: But basically, teams who hit at least seventy five percent

888
00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:07,120
Speaker 7: from the free throw line cash at a fifty five

889
00:43:07,120 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 7: percent rate, ats about six percent return on investment.

890
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:13,080
Speaker 3: Basically, you rise raise that.

891
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:16,200
Speaker 7: Free throw percentage for a team to seventy six percent,

892
00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:19,280
Speaker 7: the ROI goes up to thirteen percent, and it's seventy

893
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:22,680
Speaker 7: seven percent. It's actually over twenty percent eighty seven fifty

894
00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:25,520
Speaker 7: two to two ATS, and the NCAA tournament is two

895
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:27,759
Speaker 7: thousand and six. Hitch your free throw as you tend

896
00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 7: to cover the two teams. I think you probably want

897
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:33,520
Speaker 7: to highlight Wisconsin. They lead the nation almost eighty three percent.

898
00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:37,160
Speaker 7: That's actually the second best free throw percentage almost ever

899
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:40,279
Speaker 7: for a tournament team. Villanova twenty twenty two made it

900
00:43:40,320 --> 00:43:42,080
Speaker 7: to the final four. And I think the other one

901
00:43:42,080 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 7: worth noting is Gonzaga at about eighty percent, second best

902
00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:47,840
Speaker 7: free throw rate for an eight seed or higher, behind

903
00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:50,960
Speaker 7: only twenty twenty one or Robert two as a fifteen

904
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:53,920
Speaker 7: seed actually upset the two in the seven so pretty

905
00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:56,759
Speaker 7: decent category there. The other teams to potentially look for

906
00:43:57,160 --> 00:44:02,720
Speaker 7: Lipscomb good from free throw Arizona, Michigan State, and Colorado State.

907
00:44:02,880 --> 00:44:05,720
Speaker 7: So just an interesting trend to kind of talk about

908
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:07,759
Speaker 7: and kind of works year to year as well, So

909
00:44:07,840 --> 00:44:12,080
Speaker 7: let me keep rolling here. Every year people kind of

910
00:44:12,120 --> 00:44:15,239
Speaker 7: talk about betting blindly on these underdogs, kind of having

911
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:17,399
Speaker 7: a little fun. Well, it's actually worked lately, so round

912
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:21,319
Speaker 7: to sixty four blindly betting eleven seeds or higher on

913
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:23,560
Speaker 7: the money line has turned a profit each of the

914
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 7: last four tournaments, and since twenty twelve, one hundred dollars

915
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:30,839
Speaker 7: better almost three hundred games would be up about seventeen

916
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:34,680
Speaker 7: percent return on investment, almost forty eight hundred bucks profiting

917
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:37,759
Speaker 7: in eight of the twelve years. So some people out

918
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:40,000
Speaker 7: there like to put ten bucks, twenty bucks, whatever it

919
00:44:40,040 --> 00:44:41,840
Speaker 7: is on all of these underdogs en route.

920
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 3: It's actually worked lately, which is fun. And this one

921
00:44:44,680 --> 00:44:45,040
Speaker 3: is well.

922
00:44:45,040 --> 00:44:47,800
Speaker 1: Us that you just told us that last year was

923
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:52,160
Speaker 1: such a chocky no, but.

924
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 7: Just completely betting money lines because a lot of these

925
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:58,799
Speaker 7: big upsets tend to probably cover most of the other

926
00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 7: teams see your rout and like a ten to one,

927
00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:04,440
Speaker 7: a twelve to one, which has actually hit lately, you know,

928
00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:07,080
Speaker 7: especially when these six teams are beating one. So to me,

929
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:09,400
Speaker 7: that's probably what's done at the last few years, but

930
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:14,280
Speaker 7: nonetheless pretty crazy. And this one, this one's directly for you, Chad,

931
00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:16,719
Speaker 7: since we talked about that for NFL. In terms of

932
00:45:16,760 --> 00:45:19,760
Speaker 7: betting like the favorites and during the season, well, dating

933
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:22,120
Speaker 7: back to nineteen ninety, we've only seen two teams win

934
00:45:22,160 --> 00:45:24,279
Speaker 7: the title having odds at twenty five to one are

935
00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:27,399
Speaker 7: higher entering the tournament. They were both Connecticut in twenty

936
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:30,560
Speaker 7: eleven twenty five to one and twenty fourteen at one

937
00:45:30,640 --> 00:45:34,400
Speaker 7: hundred to one. So since Yukon in twenty fourteen, every

938
00:45:34,520 --> 00:45:37,759
Speaker 7: champion has had has been under twenty to one during

939
00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:38,320
Speaker 7: the tournament.

940
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:39,200
Speaker 3: So right now, that.

941
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 7: Would only be six teams Duke, Florida, Auburn, Houston, Alabama,

942
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:48,160
Speaker 7: and Tennessee. So obviously could get bucked, but those are

943
00:45:48,160 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 7: the six teams right now that would work over the

944
00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:51,760
Speaker 7: last decade of tournaments.

945
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 3: So we will see.

946
00:45:53,120 --> 00:45:55,600
Speaker 1: I thought when you said, I thought, when you said

947
00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:58,360
Speaker 1: this is just for me, you were gonna resance like

948
00:45:59,560 --> 00:46:04,520
Speaker 1: the nineteen seventy nine De Paul Blue Demons. We're number

949
00:46:04,520 --> 00:46:07,640
Speaker 1: one in the country heading into the tournament, and yet

950
00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:12,839
Speaker 1: they lost to who in March madness. That's that's what

951
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:14,799
Speaker 1: I thought you were going to say.

952
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:17,880
Speaker 7: Unfortunately wasn't an al Maguire stat, but we'll have to

953
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 7: move on from there. This one is actually I actually

954
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:23,360
Speaker 7: looked up while you guys are talking about Saint John's

955
00:46:23,680 --> 00:46:25,640
Speaker 7: and I had seen it in a few different places.

956
00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:28,800
Speaker 7: But so we have thirty six final fourteen since twenty fifteen.

957
00:46:29,360 --> 00:46:32,640
Speaker 7: Thirty four of those thirty six had an effective field

958
00:46:32,640 --> 00:46:33,720
Speaker 7: goal percentage of fifty.

959
00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:34,240
Speaker 3: Percent or higher.

960
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:37,759
Speaker 7: All thirty six shot at least thirty two point seven

961
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:41,040
Speaker 7: percent from three and thirty three of thirty six shot

962
00:46:41,320 --> 00:46:44,320
Speaker 7: just around seventy percent or higher. From the free throw line.

963
00:46:44,440 --> 00:46:47,600
Speaker 7: Saint John's doesn't cover any of those three, so a

964
00:46:47,600 --> 00:46:50,799
Speaker 7: lot of their metrics seem to say that they have

965
00:46:50,880 --> 00:46:53,319
Speaker 7: to get there differently, like they drive a lot, they

966
00:46:53,320 --> 00:46:56,399
Speaker 7: don't shoot the three extremely well. So that's just one

967
00:46:56,400 --> 00:46:58,279
Speaker 7: thing to be that I'm interested in. And the other one,

968
00:46:58,520 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 7: this is a Ken Palm stat that's everywhere, but in

969
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:03,720
Speaker 7: the sixty fourteen era, there have been thirty nine teams

970
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:05,920
Speaker 7: to enter the tournament as a one or two seed

971
00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:09,040
Speaker 7: that weren't ranked in the preseason eight peopole. They have

972
00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:12,759
Speaker 7: zero final fours, that is Saint John's and Michigan State

973
00:47:12,800 --> 00:47:15,839
Speaker 7: this year, So those are two teams to potentially worry about.

974
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:18,359
Speaker 7: And then I got two more for you. This one

975
00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:21,000
Speaker 7: I thought was kind of fascinating with Florida. So Florida

976
00:47:21,040 --> 00:47:24,480
Speaker 7: actually entered the regular season at sixty to one odds

977
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:26,960
Speaker 7: to win it all and is now obviously a one seed.

978
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:29,120
Speaker 7: So we have data since two thousand and nine on

979
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:32,759
Speaker 7: preseason odds, we've had twelve teams listed at thirty to

980
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:35,400
Speaker 7: one or higher in the preseason and ended up with

981
00:47:35,440 --> 00:47:38,680
Speaker 7: a one seed. Only one made the final four, Gonzaga

982
00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 7: in twenty seventeen and none have won it all. Now,

983
00:47:42,200 --> 00:47:44,920
Speaker 7: I asked myself this question, so aregurgitated to you guys?

984
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:46,760
Speaker 7: How good were those twelve teams?

985
00:47:46,840 --> 00:47:48,879
Speaker 3: Right? Like in terms of rankings and during the.

986
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:53,879
Speaker 7: Dance, well, all were AP top five and all were

987
00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:57,680
Speaker 7: top nine in RPI, so pretty decent teams. Now that's Florida,

988
00:47:57,800 --> 00:48:00,640
Speaker 7: So I know Jim was talking about them potentially not

989
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:03,640
Speaker 7: making it there. I think a lot of the talking

990
00:48:03,680 --> 00:48:06,200
Speaker 7: heads like Florida, but their path is tough. And then

991
00:48:06,200 --> 00:48:07,600
Speaker 7: I leave you with one, just fun one.

992
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:09,160
Speaker 3: We tend to.

993
00:48:09,160 --> 00:48:12,480
Speaker 7: See unders with high totals early in March Madness in

994
00:48:12,600 --> 00:48:15,239
Speaker 7: Round of sixty four earlier games with the total of

995
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:17,920
Speaker 7: one hundred and forty or more, which is this year,

996
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:21,400
Speaker 7: almost every single game, it looks like there's sixty percent

997
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:24,480
Speaker 7: to the under for a fourteen percent ROI since twenty

998
00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:27,520
Speaker 7: twelve finishing above five hundred for the under in six

999
00:48:27,600 --> 00:48:31,160
Speaker 7: straight tournaments. So unders tend to come in early in

1000
00:48:31,239 --> 00:48:34,000
Speaker 7: these games, and this year got a lot of high totals,

1001
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:35,000
Speaker 7: so it should be a good one.

1002
00:48:35,520 --> 00:48:37,520
Speaker 5: That spooks me. I think I'm on too many overs

1003
00:48:37,560 --> 00:48:40,080
Speaker 5: based on that one. I might have to do some think.

1004
00:48:42,880 --> 00:48:44,920
Speaker 3: The crazy thing about those totals though. One more thing.

1005
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:47,799
Speaker 7: It's the highest and I look this up every game

1006
00:48:47,800 --> 00:48:50,479
Speaker 7: around of sixty four the highest we've seen in thirty years.

1007
00:48:50,480 --> 00:48:53,319
Speaker 7: I've got totals since ninety five. We've never seen this

1008
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:56,040
Speaker 7: average high totals. We have like ten or twelve games

1009
00:48:56,160 --> 00:48:58,640
Speaker 7: at one hundred and fifty plus, so some wild.

1010
00:48:58,360 --> 00:48:59,080
Speaker 5: Games out there.

1011
00:48:59,320 --> 00:49:01,879
Speaker 6: This was the most efficient season in college basketball history

1012
00:49:01,920 --> 00:49:04,320
Speaker 6: in terms of scoring, so that probably you know rising

1013
00:49:04,320 --> 00:49:06,960
Speaker 6: tide lists all boat sort of thing. Last year I

1014
00:49:06,960 --> 00:49:09,040
Speaker 6: think was the most efficient, and then this year blew

1015
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:11,719
Speaker 6: it away by another like point per possession. It's it's

1016
00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:12,280
Speaker 6: been nuts.

1017
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, Gym's out here given overs for his best bets.

1018
00:49:18,239 --> 00:49:20,560
Speaker 5: I'm fighting a sixty percent trend. What am I doing?

1019
00:49:21,840 --> 00:49:23,840
Speaker 4: It's a right at least in bullshit.

1020
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:29,200
Speaker 1: Anyways, we can't wait to have you with us in

1021
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:33,680
Speaker 1: Chicago for the Massive Favorites Live event.

1022
00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:35,840
Speaker 4: You and the entire three man.

1023
00:49:35,800 --> 00:49:41,040
Speaker 1: Weave crew, who are really like the original impresarios when

1024
00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:45,440
Speaker 1: it comes to using analytics to bet on college basketball.

1025
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:47,120
Speaker 1: I know you guys do this well in a variety

1026
00:49:47,160 --> 00:49:49,640
Speaker 1: of ways, so we're stoked to have you in Chicago.

1027
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:54,120
Speaker 1: I'll make as many to Paul Bluema Demon references as

1028
00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:57,239
Speaker 1: I possibly can at the live event, so we can

1029
00:49:57,280 --> 00:50:00,560
Speaker 1: live back the glory years went to Paul in Mark Cat.

1030
00:50:00,760 --> 00:50:06,160
Speaker 1: We're going back and forth, good Catholic schools dominating college basketball.

1031
00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:07,960
Speaker 4: I remember those days, Jim. I know you're an old guy.

1032
00:50:08,560 --> 00:50:11,239
Speaker 6: Oh yeah, My dad got his master's degree from De Paul,

1033
00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:13,880
Speaker 6: so you know he's got some Blue Demon history as well.

1034
00:50:14,200 --> 00:50:15,960
Speaker 6: So you know, we go all the way back. I

1035
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:17,959
Speaker 6: will say too, I've had some good times at Joe's

1036
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:21,319
Speaker 6: on Weed. Great great setup, like to watch games. Uh,

1037
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:23,600
Speaker 6: and I'm pumped to go back there and have the

1038
00:50:23,640 --> 00:50:25,600
Speaker 6: mic in my hand this time instead of be the

1039
00:50:25,600 --> 00:50:27,560
Speaker 6: one watching whatever performance is happening.

1040
00:50:27,719 --> 00:50:34,920
Speaker 1: I'll bet you've had some good time at Joe's on Weed. Okay, Simon, Simon,

1041
00:50:35,239 --> 00:50:36,320
Speaker 1: you got them and get Simon.

1042
00:50:36,400 --> 00:50:41,320
Speaker 4: You're on a heater, Simon, come on, come on. Dramatic pause,

1043
00:50:41,960 --> 00:50:44,759
Speaker 4: dramatic pass right there, all right.

1044
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:47,520
Speaker 1: As a reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by

1045
00:50:47,520 --> 00:50:50,439
Speaker 1: bet three six five in is now live in my.

1046
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:52,279
Speaker 4: Home state of Illinois.

1047
00:50:53,000 --> 00:50:55,880
Speaker 1: You bet three sixty five customers, including those in ELOI

1048
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1049
00:50:58,600 --> 00:51:01,680
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1050
00:51:01,719 --> 00:51:04,480
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1051
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1052
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1053
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1054
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Speaker 4: Whatever the moment.

1055
00:51:13,320 --> 00:51:16,759
Speaker 1: It's never ordinary at bet three sixty five, especially in Illinois.

1056
00:51:17,040 --> 00:51:22,520
Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana,

1057
00:51:22,520 --> 00:51:25,200
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1058
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1059
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1060
00:51:33,239 --> 00:51:35,759
Speaker 1: Simon and I will return with our next episode of

1061
00:51:35,760 --> 00:51:40,000
Speaker 1: The Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Thursday eleven am,

1062
00:51:40,040 --> 00:51:44,759
Speaker 1: talking March Madness, all things betting, betting and media. His

1063
00:51:45,440 --> 00:51:51,719
Speaker 1: extraordinary career with Stanford, Steve Famous from Sports Center, from

1064
00:51:51,800 --> 00:51:55,760
Speaker 1: College Game Day, the original host of Behind the Bets

1065
00:51:55,800 --> 00:51:59,160
Speaker 1: the College Years, going back many many years. Download us

1066
00:51:59,160 --> 00:52:01,919
Speaker 1: some Spotify, Apple Podcast wherever you get your pods rate review,

1067
00:52:01,960 --> 00:52:03,480
Speaker 1: subscribe you as five stars, say.

1068
00:52:03,360 --> 00:52:05,360
Speaker 4: Whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time.

1069
00:52:06,000 --> 00:52:08,120
Speaker 4: Love you.

1070
00:52:14,719 --> 00:52:19,239
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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00:52:19,239 --> 00:52:22,040
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

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Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler