1 00:00:13,760 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to a brand new podcast on the 2 00:00:18,040 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 1: Fish Stripes Network. We have a very special podcast for 3 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:24,680 Speaker 1: all you stat heads out there for the very first 4 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 1: episode of fish Ology with myself, Adam and Lewis. So 5 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 1: for this podcast, we'll be breaking down look for It 6 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 1: almost every week players from twenty twenty two Marlins and 7 00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:42,239 Speaker 1: breaking down their season, not looking at traditional stats, but 8 00:00:42,280 --> 00:00:45,200 Speaker 1: we will be going on a deep dive advanced stat 9 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 1: for everyone out there who loves those deep dives. That's 10 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:49,839 Speaker 1: why I brought in Adam, That's why we have Lewis 11 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:52,640 Speaker 1: for this podcast. Will be us three every week for 12 00:00:52,680 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 1: this audio only podcast. Adam, Lewis you guys ready for this? 13 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 2: Yes, sir, let's do it and pumps uh. 14 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:05,120 Speaker 1: So for the first episode. Where else to start but 15 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:09,000 Speaker 1: with aforementioned going to be the twenty twenty two cy 16 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:12,240 Speaker 1: Young Award winner Sandy alcan Data with one of the 17 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 1: best seasons in Marlon's history. And if you like one 18 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 1: of those people who like to look at traditional stats, 19 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:23,919 Speaker 1: Sandy obviously some of the best traditional stats out there today. 20 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:27,039 Speaker 1: Two hundred and twenty two innings, pitch two, seven strikeouts 21 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 1: to tow a era point nine to eight whip. But 22 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 1: for this podcast, we are looking at the advanced stats, 23 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:36,959 Speaker 1: the stats that you don't see on ESPN or any 24 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 1: other ass to score or whatnot. We're gonna go deep 25 00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 1: dive into that, and we're gonna start off with PHIP 26 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:47,320 Speaker 1: and with PIP Lewis. I want you to give us 27 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 1: just a little definition of maybe what PHIP is, what 28 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:55,320 Speaker 1: goes into it, and maybe how Sandy's numbers look for 29 00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 1: in the FIP category for twenty twenty two. 30 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 3: All right, so you guys familiar with this actual page 31 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 3: story where I believe he was playing in a Near 32 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 3: League All Star game er it made them in a 33 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:08,200 Speaker 3: World series back in the early forties, and I believe 34 00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:10,800 Speaker 3: he loaded the bases and he called all of his 35 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 3: fielders in and he said that he was going to 36 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 3: strike out the side. Think of that as like the 37 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:19,399 Speaker 3: first thought that comes to your mind when you think 38 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:21,880 Speaker 3: of FIP. Really, what it does is it accounts for 39 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:24,360 Speaker 3: all of the factors that a pitcher can control on 40 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:29,679 Speaker 3: their own, so hit by pitches, strikeouts, walks. If you 41 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:32,960 Speaker 3: want to use an example of how FIP may indicate luck, 42 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 3: by example, look at a guy like top twenty twenty 43 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 3: Taiwan Walker, who I believe posted an ERA below two three, 44 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 3: but his FIP was near four and a half because 45 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:48,080 Speaker 3: of his propensity to give up home runs, and I 46 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 3: believe his walk rate was slightly above the league average 47 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 3: that year. So when you're giving up runs, let's just 48 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 3: take more immediate offense, or at least you're facilitating offense 49 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 3: more putting guys on, whether it's by hit by pitches 50 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:07,359 Speaker 3: or you're allowing home runs. Uh, PIP will indicate that. 51 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 3: And I guess Sandy's FIPP, you know, for the most 52 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 3: part when you have an e RA you know, bordering 53 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 3: on in the low twos, where he kind of sat 54 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:20,400 Speaker 3: for or I guess he's finished the season at its 55 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 3: you know, he finished, like Daniel noted at two twenty eight, 56 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 3: given he doesn't have the propensity to put guys away, 57 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:28,959 Speaker 3: or at least he doesn't prioritize strikeouts. Even if you 58 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:31,639 Speaker 3: look at his numbers, he's kind of been an average 59 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:34,400 Speaker 3: to slightly below average strikeout picture for the duration of 60 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 3: his career. I believe this year at eight point one 61 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 3: strikeouts per nine innings. Again, if you're it's still very productive, 62 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 3: you could still be a very productive pitcher. Well putting 63 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:45,200 Speaker 3: without putting guys away. I'll look at Greg Maddox or 64 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:47,080 Speaker 3: even if you want to go back to baseball history, 65 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:50,200 Speaker 3: most of the great Dead Bull era pictures didn't prioritize strikeouts, 66 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 3: and that could be one reason that Sandy has kind 67 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 3: of drawn a lot of those comparisons. But with that 68 00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 3: being said, his FIP is slightly higher than is he 69 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:04,560 Speaker 3: and for the majority of his career, I believe every season, 70 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 3: if you look at his era and fit ratio, there's 71 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 3: always going to be a variance because of what I noted, 72 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 3: and that he just doesn't have the propensity to put 73 00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 3: guys away, or at least he doesn't prioritize that. 74 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:18,039 Speaker 4: I might go to say that al Contra might be 75 00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 4: the best pitcher in baseball right now. Well, brother, I 76 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:23,239 Speaker 4: think you might be right. And it's ground ball to first. 77 00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 4: Lewin's got it, and there's one away bouncer back to him, 78 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:34,039 Speaker 4: knocks it down, recovers sidearm throat of first to get 79 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 4: the out. Sandy's oh one, Nevado ground ball first base 80 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 4: Leywen's got it. He'll take it himself. So Martin's winning. 81 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 4: It's shut out first, Sandy Alcandera. 82 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:53,279 Speaker 3: So this year he had a two ninety nine fit. Again, 83 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:57,039 Speaker 3: if you can post a season where you're logging nearly 84 00:04:57,240 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 3: Roy Halladay number of innings, you know, two or three 85 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 3: innings and you're posting a FIP under or at three, 86 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:06,920 Speaker 3: there's no real way to cut and slice and say 87 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 3: that you're a productive pitcher. You kind of just are. 88 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 3: And it is what it is. I mean, you know, 89 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:15,160 Speaker 3: just still manage to strike out to hundred batters is impressive. 90 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 3: But he's doing it over the you know, a larger 91 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:19,920 Speaker 3: volume of innings. But you know, again, I guess he 92 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:23,479 Speaker 3: just kind of shows you that you don't need strikeout. 93 00:05:23,520 --> 00:05:26,320 Speaker 3: They're not the most imperative thing to pitch your success, 94 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 3: but they do project well in the long term. 95 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:31,480 Speaker 1: And with his FIP, what do you guys see in 96 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:33,520 Speaker 1: terms of him and maybe the other guys in the 97 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 1: nl race, would maybe you mentioned his FIP being a 98 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:42,040 Speaker 1: little higher. Would that just be just adjusted for maybe 99 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 1: the other guys in the NLCY young race, or is 100 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:47,159 Speaker 1: just his FIP is just that much better maybe than 101 00:05:47,200 --> 00:05:47,920 Speaker 1: everyone else's. 102 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:52,240 Speaker 3: Well, if you look at the guy who is and 103 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 3: I'll let Adam chime in after, if you look at 104 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 3: Koulio Aria as he's kind of the one aid the 105 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:04,480 Speaker 3: Sandy one in the Siam race. This season, Julio's FIP 106 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:07,240 Speaker 3: is slightly higher than his R and hisray is I 107 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:09,360 Speaker 3: believe point twelve runs lower. He finished the year with 108 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 3: a two sixteen year RA if I'm not mistaken, and 109 00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:15,280 Speaker 3: his FIP is higher because he plays in a picture 110 00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 3: friendly ballpark, but he also has been kind of bitten 111 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:20,960 Speaker 3: by the home run and that bit him a lot 112 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:23,080 Speaker 3: earlier this year when he was struggling at the outset 113 00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 3: of the season, the velocity was down. You know, the 114 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:28,960 Speaker 3: fifth is more indicative that his era maybe should have 115 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 3: been in the mid threes rather than in the low 116 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 3: twos where he's wound up. And again, phip doesn't account 117 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 3: for your defense. So obviously the Dodgers are a team 118 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 3: that does tend to shift quite often. They'll be an 119 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:43,599 Speaker 3: interesting watch in twenty twenty two with the new rules 120 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:49,239 Speaker 3: that kind of band shifts and the defensive positioning. But again, 121 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:52,040 Speaker 3: you know, Area's kind of got lucky, if you want 122 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 3: to say that, and that's why, you know, other metrics 123 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 3: will say that he didn't accrue as much overall value 124 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 3: because he was helped out a lot defense and then 125 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 3: factor in the fact that he gave a lot of 126 00:07:04,080 --> 00:07:07,440 Speaker 3: home runs is one reason why his FIP is slightly 127 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:09,960 Speaker 3: higher than his RA, or well higher than his RA. 128 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 2: Lewis kind of just a kind of kind of add 129 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 2: on sequentially to what you were saying. I guess I 130 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 2: wanted to kind of also introduce the concept of x 131 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 2: FIP as well, which is quite literally the same exact 132 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 2: kind of concept as FIP. You're isolating for your three 133 00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 2: true base outcome true three out based out outcomes, which 134 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:35,520 Speaker 2: are your strikeouts, walks, and home runs. With the difference 135 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:37,920 Speaker 2: between x FIP and FIP is that with x FIP 136 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:41,400 Speaker 2: you're actually take into account with home runs. Instead of 137 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:43,560 Speaker 2: looking at home runs, you are looking at a fly 138 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:45,560 Speaker 2: ball to home run ratio, which is a little bit 139 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 2: more theoretical, but it gives you kind of a better 140 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 2: idea of what should have happened tens the more of 141 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:54,600 Speaker 2: expected idea and outcome. The rhetoric around Marlins media and 142 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:58,880 Speaker 2: around some Major League baseball was that he was the 143 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 2: run away gonna receive twenty five plus votes out of thirty, 144 00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 2: and to me, I just thought that was somewhat absurd 145 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 2: because if you could if you took somewhat of a 146 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:11,560 Speaker 2: deep dive into his Fangrafts pitching statistics, which if you 147 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 2: look at their war and their cumulative stats in that regard, 148 00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 2: it takes into account what should have happened more than 149 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 2: what Baseball Reference does, And that's what a lot of 150 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 2: Marlin's media has been biased looking at. And that's what 151 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 2: I kind of wanted to point out at because I've 152 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:28,080 Speaker 2: always seen the be war pitching because it makes him 153 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 2: look better, right, because he's head and shoulders a cy 154 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 2: young if you'd look at just that, the real thing 155 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:34,800 Speaker 2: you should be looking at, and why I still believe 156 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 2: he's still like my sim pick is that you really 157 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:39,319 Speaker 2: want to average the two because you really can't go 158 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:42,079 Speaker 2: wrong with either what you can honestly, But if you 159 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 2: really want to be partial to the true outcome and 160 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:48,439 Speaker 2: also have give some credence to what should have happened, 161 00:08:48,679 --> 00:08:52,199 Speaker 2: which I think I've come to like at least give 162 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:55,719 Speaker 2: credence to and amend to and comend to, I think 163 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:58,839 Speaker 2: that's fine. So and in the end, Sandy is still 164 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:00,719 Speaker 2: the sign Award winner, which is why I stuck with 165 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 2: him as my pick. But in the end, it paints 166 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:05,080 Speaker 2: a lot more clear pitcher as to why he may 167 00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:08,520 Speaker 2: not be the best because of the underlying statistics. You see. 168 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 2: The reason why Pip is more likable or more use 169 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:16,319 Speaker 2: and it's more of a Darling analytics stat is because 170 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:20,560 Speaker 2: ideally you want to put away the batter without him 171 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:23,520 Speaker 2: putting the ball in play. You want to like completely 172 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:26,880 Speaker 2: take away the possibility of him at reaching base at 173 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 2: any cost, and the only way you can do that 174 00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:34,079 Speaker 2: is if you strike him out right. So that's why 175 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:37,200 Speaker 2: you value strikeouts much more than a ground ball pitcher, 176 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 2: which is what Sandy is. Sandy's more of a finesse 177 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:42,080 Speaker 2: guy who's gonna rely on his command control more than 178 00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 2: he is his strikeouts. And that's why you're seeing him 179 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 2: potentially on the fritz and why his if you were 180 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 2: to lose that velocity in command, and why you see 181 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:58,800 Speaker 2: other players such as a let's see a Carlos rodon 182 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:01,839 Speaker 2: or A and Nola and Max Fried above him in 183 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:04,480 Speaker 2: that regard because their strikeout numbers are higher, their walk 184 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:07,679 Speaker 2: rates are lower, and even though Sandy's home run rate 185 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:10,719 Speaker 2: is almost elite, all these other guys that I just 186 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:14,839 Speaker 2: mentioned are pretty much hovering around that same area. So 187 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 2: that's really the reason why I've been worried about Sandney 188 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 2: al Contra. But in regards at the end of the day, 189 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 2: if you want to average both of those wars, that's 190 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:23,600 Speaker 2: really what you should be doing. And in the end 191 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 2: it's still Saniel Contra, which is why he's had such 192 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 2: a fantastic season. 193 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 3: What Adam's kind of illustrating is that Sandi al Katara 194 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 3: is a the next pitcher operating in a power pitcher body. 195 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 3: He has the ability to throw ninety eight and one 196 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:40,120 Speaker 3: hundred and kind of preserve that stuff we've seen on 197 00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:43,520 Speaker 3: his last start Milwaukee and that complete came one, nothing lost. 198 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:45,760 Speaker 3: He growing one hundred and hundred and one in the 199 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 3: eighth inning, one hundred plus pitches in a doubting. 200 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 4: Sandy's one to two blows them away one hundred miles 201 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:55,079 Speaker 4: an hour, back to back strikeouts for our Contra. 202 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:59,080 Speaker 2: This that back right here he went slider slider one one, 203 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 2: went nine in sinker and then off that goes four 204 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:04,480 Speaker 2: seed one hundred. 205 00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 3: Watch the Sandy a contrast start. You know, if say 206 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 3: one day he would throw an no hitter, it's not 207 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:15,719 Speaker 3: It may not be the dominating type that we'd come 208 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:18,600 Speaker 3: to expect from say a Max Scherzer when he threw 209 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:21,599 Speaker 3: his two, but with Sandy, a lot of it is 210 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 3: just you know, it's this he like I said, he 211 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:29,679 Speaker 3: doesn't prioritize strikeouts. His m is pitching innings and he's 212 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:32,439 Speaker 3: able to pitch a lot of innings because of his efficiency. 213 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 3: I mean, you look at his ground ball rate this 214 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:37,920 Speaker 3: year and it's the highest it's ever been in his career. 215 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:41,719 Speaker 3: Slightly above what it was last year, but he is 216 00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:45,520 Speaker 3: allowing ground ball. He has a fifty three point four 217 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:50,040 Speaker 3: percent ground ball rate. He gets a lot of we contact, 218 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:52,280 Speaker 3: a lot of that being because he's a sinker baller, 219 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:53,959 Speaker 3: so he's going to keep the ball on the ground. 220 00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 3: And like you said, Adam, he doesn't have you know, 221 00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:00,559 Speaker 3: he really hasn't been bitten by the home this year, 222 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 3: and when he has, it's generally been early in his starts, 223 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:05,680 Speaker 3: and he's been good at making adjustments. Just a note 224 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:08,640 Speaker 3: on how good he's been preventing the Wong bow this year. 225 00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:10,559 Speaker 3: One of the reference a piece actually just recently put 226 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:16,839 Speaker 3: on fangras or fish stripes fangrass. So we're so since 227 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:19,719 Speaker 3: the start of the twenty twenty, of the start of 228 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 3: two thousand, the start of the new millennium, there have 229 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:25,720 Speaker 3: been fifty two seasons where Pitcher has thrown two hundred 230 00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 3: and twenty five innings and allowed less than twenty home runs, 231 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:31,599 Speaker 3: and Sandy was the most recent person to do that 232 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 3: this year. The last person to do that, And I'm 233 00:12:34,679 --> 00:12:37,520 Speaker 3: not saying he was equally as dominant. I noted was 234 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 3: twenty and fifteen Jake Arieta. Now, if you want to 235 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:44,880 Speaker 3: go apples to apples and try to compare them, Arieta 236 00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:48,000 Speaker 3: had a second half for the Ages in twenty fifteen, 237 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:51,080 Speaker 3: which is why he ousted you know, Granke and clayt 238 00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 3: kersherf with the Ion that year. But he won the 239 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 3: syon that year, performing in a way similar to the 240 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 3: way that Sandy does, albeit like him would attest to 241 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:05,120 Speaker 3: with more strikeouts. And though he was he still I 242 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:07,079 Speaker 3: believe he's still the cross two undred inning threshold. He 243 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:10,319 Speaker 3: threw multipio complete games, and he's shining the postseason for 244 00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:13,360 Speaker 3: the Cubs when they began that run. Now, that's just 245 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:16,280 Speaker 3: that's one thing. I mean, like you know, they we generally, 246 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 3: we generally see that when guys have a lot of velocity, 247 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 3: if you leave them all over the plate, regardless of 248 00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:25,040 Speaker 3: how hard you're throwing, you're just supplying more energy I guess, 249 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 3: more power for the for the hitter to do something 250 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 3: with it. But Sandy's ability to limit the long ball 251 00:13:30,640 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 3: the way that he has while doing it over such 252 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:35,840 Speaker 3: a long stretch of innings is among the more impressive 253 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 3: things in the sport. You know, I guess you can 254 00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:41,160 Speaker 3: say that if you're not gonna put guys away via 255 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 3: the k as frequently as guys say like the gram 256 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:47,160 Speaker 3: insurser do do what Sandy does and just elicit a 257 00:13:47,280 --> 00:13:50,360 Speaker 3: ridiculously high amount of ground balls. And he does that, 258 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 3: and we see the company he's in. Like if you 259 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:54,720 Speaker 3: look at the list of guys in the twenty first 260 00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:59,360 Speaker 3: century that don't allow home runs and pitch two hundred 261 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 3: plus innings, they're some of the best pictures in baseball. 262 00:14:02,280 --> 00:14:05,480 Speaker 3: So you know, it's a it's definitely a nuanced way 263 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 3: to look at it. But at the end of the day, 264 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 3: if you can give bulk and limit the long ball, 265 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:12,719 Speaker 3: there's something incredibly valuable about that. 266 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, no, absolutely, And like I'm totally with you Lewis 267 00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 2: in terms of what Sandy's capabilities are and what he's 268 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:23,880 Speaker 2: able to do if he's able to control and maintain 269 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 2: that ground ball and that command profile, because we've seen 270 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:31,000 Speaker 2: obviously if he doesn't, then he turns into Elia's or Hernandez, 271 00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 2: and that's really bad. But like I said, like with 272 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 2: if Elliots or Hernandez obviously doesn't have the same velocity, 273 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:39,640 Speaker 2: but if he were to be to have it and 274 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:41,920 Speaker 2: then someone have some other control, he would be in 275 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:43,920 Speaker 2: that Sandy mold. Not to say he'd be the same thing, 276 00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:48,280 Speaker 2: but kind of going back to this, just with al Contra, 277 00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:54,800 Speaker 2: we see just by on a per inning basis, there's 278 00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 2: no question he's a top ten pitcher this season, but 279 00:14:57,360 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 2: he's by no regards he's he the number one pitcher 280 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 2: on an inning inning ability basis. But there is no 281 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:06,240 Speaker 2: other pitcher in Major League Baseball who has been able 282 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:11,360 Speaker 2: to sustain this good of a per inning basis through 283 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 2: a sheer volume of two hundred plus two hundred and 284 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:16,200 Speaker 2: twenty innings. Right, this is what I'm trying to say, 285 00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 2: is that this is Sandy's award by sheer volume, just 286 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 2: because he has brute forced his way through the season 287 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:24,600 Speaker 2: and has horse hit the Marlins through a really, really 288 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:27,560 Speaker 2: rough season. If it wasn't for Sandy al Contra, they 289 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:29,760 Speaker 2: probably would have much higher odds and picking in the 290 00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:34,920 Speaker 2: the the Major League Draft lottery for number one if 291 00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:38,160 Speaker 2: it wasn't for him, And really, like that's how that 292 00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:40,640 Speaker 2: just shows you just how much he's carried this rotation, 293 00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:43,520 Speaker 2: how much value he's had on this pitching staff, and 294 00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 2: then really in the pitching staff that is probably a 295 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:49,280 Speaker 2: top ten in Major League Baseball, probably potentially higher, but 296 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:51,520 Speaker 2: going into next year with the development of other guys. 297 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:55,440 Speaker 2: So for me, it's just it's not like, you know, 298 00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:58,400 Speaker 2: it's working great for Sandy and the m works until 299 00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 2: it doesn't. And the Cardinals have guilty of a similar 300 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 2: profile as well. Right, And I've been on the record 301 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:05,880 Speaker 2: saying before that I'm not a huge fan of the Cardinals' 302 00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:09,680 Speaker 2: pitching profile just simply because it's not it's safe until 303 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:12,280 Speaker 2: the guys lose that commands and in the day and 304 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:15,440 Speaker 2: age where whiffs and just making sure the ball is 305 00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 2: not put in play at all at any cost is 306 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 2: very highly valued. You know, the Cardinals have been getting 307 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 2: away with it because they're making sure they're developing their 308 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:26,280 Speaker 2: guys with command control. But you, in my opinion, I 309 00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:28,000 Speaker 2: like to have that safety nets and you can't go 310 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:30,320 Speaker 2: wrong with that, and you can if you do a 311 00:16:30,400 --> 00:16:34,160 Speaker 2: good job. You can develop pitchers very very well because 312 00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:38,880 Speaker 2: our pitching, our pitching metrics, and our ability our kinematics 313 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:41,040 Speaker 2: available for pitching and the raw data that we have 314 00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 2: is much more advanced and much more analyzable, if that's 315 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 2: a word. Then what we have for hitting and definitely 316 00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:52,160 Speaker 2: for defense, like the defense we have like literally nothing, 317 00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 2: it's very very poor. So that's that's that's really how 318 00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 2: I felt for Sandy And like you know, like I said, 319 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:01,160 Speaker 2: he's our cy young, but it's by brute forrest. And 320 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:03,680 Speaker 2: because he's been a horse all year. It's not because 321 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:06,480 Speaker 2: he's got the nastiest stuff or he's the he's gonna 322 00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:09,680 Speaker 2: he's got the sexiest pitch, or he's gonna like he's 323 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:11,520 Speaker 2: gonna dazzle you on the mound. He's just gonna go 324 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:13,639 Speaker 2: out there and do his thing for eight nine innings, 325 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:16,440 Speaker 2: almost every single five every almost every five six days. 326 00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:20,040 Speaker 2: And he's done it unlike anybody else has done it 327 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:23,479 Speaker 2: this year. He's just been extremely consistent, really good all 328 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:25,520 Speaker 2: year long. Yeah, like I mean, to a. 329 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 3: Test to what you said, there's an element of theatricality 330 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 3: to what he's doing. When you watch baseball nowadays, I 331 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:34,680 Speaker 3: mean to be honest, and I feel like the playoffs 332 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:38,119 Speaker 3: exploit this more than anything, given the way that pitching 333 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 3: philosophy has maybe progressed or regressed, depending on how traditionalists 334 00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:45,480 Speaker 3: you are when it comes to how you prefer baseball 335 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:47,159 Speaker 3: to be played and how you like to watch it. 336 00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:50,400 Speaker 3: Being a guy go five innings in the postseason means 337 00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:53,639 Speaker 3: a lot more now than it did. You know, if 338 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:56,720 Speaker 3: you were going five innings in the postseason, say thirty 339 00:17:56,800 --> 00:18:00,480 Speaker 3: years ago, you either didn't pitch well or you'd pitched 340 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:02,879 Speaker 3: okay to kind of just hand them all off the bullpen. 341 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:07,960 Speaker 3: But in an era when that kind of is commonplace, 342 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:10,320 Speaker 3: and I believe I don't. I believe last year was 343 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:13,800 Speaker 3: maybe the first year where relievers threw more innings than 344 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,399 Speaker 3: starting pictures. I could be wrong on that, but I 345 00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:19,760 Speaker 3: did read something that did that did stray along those lines. 346 00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:21,000 Speaker 3: I probably have to do more and get back to 347 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 3: you guys on that. The like the brute force, the 348 00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 3: volume of innings that Sandy has thrown is a hallmark 349 00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:32,000 Speaker 3: to what baseball was maybe I guess a decade ago, 350 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 3: or not even like a like in the past half decade, 351 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:38,480 Speaker 3: we've kind of just gotten away from this idea of 352 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:40,320 Speaker 3: throwing two hundred innings. I mean, I want to give 353 00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 3: you guys a tribute question. How many pictures through two 354 00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:44,439 Speaker 3: hundred innings last year? And can you name them? 355 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:50,960 Speaker 2: How to cheat? But four? 356 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:55,200 Speaker 3: It was Walker Buehler, Adam Wainwright, Sandy al Contra, and 357 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:55,920 Speaker 3: Zach Wheeler. 358 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,119 Speaker 2: I knew I knew a Contra was like okay now 359 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:01,760 Speaker 2: that I remember, And I knew Contra was one of 360 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:04,160 Speaker 2: them because I remember Isaac in their group chat saying, oh, 361 00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:06,680 Speaker 2: there was like one who has done two hundred plus 362 00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:08,359 Speaker 2: innings back to back, and I think the Contra was 363 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 2: one of them. 364 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 3: The other Marlin to do it is Dontre Willis, and 365 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:15,520 Speaker 3: I believe Harplevano had done it before the other year 366 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:19,840 Speaker 3: Aaron Nola Daniel, and I believe there was one other pitcher. 367 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:23,359 Speaker 3: And I apologize for Lee now, but that's just the 368 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 3: thing though. There's just something in this day and age 369 00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 3: with baseball. There are baseball fans who are coming of 370 00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:32,800 Speaker 3: age right now, who if you told them that a 371 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:35,440 Speaker 3: guy like Felix Hernandez through two hundred and forty nine 372 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:37,280 Speaker 3: innings in the year he won the Cy Young Award, 373 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:40,000 Speaker 3: they would be like, oh my god, like, that's that's 374 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:42,879 Speaker 3: a lot, like how did he not blow out? And 375 00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:47,480 Speaker 3: you know what a god like standy doing this now 376 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:53,000 Speaker 3: it's product of I don't know, it's just a it's 377 00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:56,960 Speaker 3: a throwback in that sense. And I know innings pitched 378 00:19:57,000 --> 00:20:01,680 Speaker 3: are very I guess they're very like pre modern, not 379 00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 3: even pre modern, and they're just like a ring, like 380 00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 3: an analytically inclined metric. But I don't think that detracts 381 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:11,200 Speaker 3: from his value. But I want to ask you guys this, 382 00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:15,560 Speaker 3: and this is maybe just a thought on the state 383 00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:19,159 Speaker 3: of the Marlins competitively, do you think that he's had 384 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:21,480 Speaker 3: to shovel more of the load and be of his 385 00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 3: statistics respective of the fact that the offense just doesn't score. 386 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:28,040 Speaker 3: We talk about the Marlins. I told you guys, they 387 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,400 Speaker 3: average the fewest runs per game in the National League, 388 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:33,240 Speaker 3: three point six to two runs per game. The third 389 00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:36,119 Speaker 3: low is adjusted ops plus in the National League, ceiling 390 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 3: only the Pirates and I believe the Reds does Sandy 391 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:44,280 Speaker 3: pitching in a lot of very low scoring games is 392 00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:47,640 Speaker 3: the reason he goes maybe so beyond him just being 393 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,760 Speaker 3: an effective pitcher. Do you think he has to shovel 394 00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 3: more of the load because the guys don't score them 395 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:58,000 Speaker 3: enough runs? We see arius and a drawback that people 396 00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:00,840 Speaker 3: have was voting for him beyond mere value accrued is 397 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 3: the lack of innings. I believe he's one hundred and 398 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:05,879 Speaker 3: seventy five innings this year, and that's fifty three and 399 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:07,879 Speaker 3: two thirds less than Sandy. But when you're in the 400 00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 3: position that the Dodgers are in, and you are balanced 401 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,560 Speaker 3: roster all across the board, you can kind of afford 402 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 3: to rest those guys. Now does that put now that 403 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:20,160 Speaker 3: I've maybe put the thought in your head if you've 404 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:24,280 Speaker 3: not had it before, does that maybe detract a little 405 00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:26,680 Speaker 3: bit from what he's done or does it not, given 406 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 3: that he's still prevented runs that's at the rate with 407 00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:32,200 Speaker 3: the level, with the number of innings that he has thrown. 408 00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:35,880 Speaker 2: So in a in a in a world where we're 409 00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:41,400 Speaker 2: kind of finding a happy medium between what happened versus 410 00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:44,280 Speaker 2: what should have happened, I think you can kind of 411 00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:48,840 Speaker 2: say that, yes, like you can, it's fine, you can. 412 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,679 Speaker 2: You can't really blame him for having to pitch these 413 00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 2: sheer number of innings because he's just put in a situation, 414 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:56,760 Speaker 2: he's cast in the role that he's in, and he 415 00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,440 Speaker 2: is making the best out of the situation he is. 416 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:03,560 Speaker 2: He's he's put into right, So maddingly will say, Okay, 417 00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:06,800 Speaker 2: he's through six through seven. Our bullpen isn't the greatest. 418 00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:08,840 Speaker 2: It's only we're only up one run. Want to run 419 00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 2: run two runs up? Right now? Sandy, can you get 420 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 2: us another inning or two, even if it means going 421 00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:17,680 Speaker 2: into maybe one hundred hundred and ten pitches, And he'll 422 00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:20,520 Speaker 2: do it. And you know, I see other like and 423 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:24,399 Speaker 2: I think the way I'm mitigating for what really should 424 00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:28,000 Speaker 2: have happened or what is happening is because Sandy is 425 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:30,920 Speaker 2: making the best out of a really, really tough situation 426 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:33,600 Speaker 2: that other pitches may not really be in. Because I 427 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:38,439 Speaker 2: thought about it, like, who's to say that with who's 428 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 2: like really good, like Carlos Horodin. Who's to say he 429 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:43,960 Speaker 2: would continue this kind of success over the next fifty 430 00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:47,359 Speaker 2: because he's quite literally pitched fifty innings less than Sandy 431 00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:51,639 Speaker 2: al Contra, even though he has about one win higher 432 00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,600 Speaker 2: or sorry, half a win higher in terms of fran 433 00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 2: grafts war. Then Sandy al Contra let's you know, he 434 00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 2: could be he could start wearing down and you never 435 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,320 Speaker 2: know what happened. And granted the guy missed two starts 436 00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:06,400 Speaker 2: or missed and start compared to Sandy, but I think 437 00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:09,680 Speaker 2: it really doesn't detract from his season at all, Lewis 438 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:13,920 Speaker 2: just because with Sandy put like being cast in the 439 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:15,800 Speaker 2: role that he's in it all, it only makes it 440 00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,000 Speaker 2: more difficult in my opinion, that you have to throw 441 00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 2: this many innings. And that's kind of the credence that 442 00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:23,320 Speaker 2: I've given to everyone since August when I made that statement. 443 00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:25,399 Speaker 2: Maybe I'm just also we got a roasted quite a 444 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,840 Speaker 2: bit for it, but in general, I think that you 445 00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:29,760 Speaker 2: kind of do need to see, hey, even though this 446 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,200 Speaker 2: is what should have happened, you need to play the game. 447 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:34,800 Speaker 2: Eventually you need to take into account what actually did 448 00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 2: because at some point where do you to have the 449 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:41,879 Speaker 2: line between theoretical and practically, between practice and theory. So 450 00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:45,159 Speaker 2: you want to actually put in to account what's actually 451 00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:48,240 Speaker 2: happening at some point, and I think that is that 452 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:50,280 Speaker 2: you can. You can kind of take into account both, 453 00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:52,600 Speaker 2: and that's why I think averaging B war and four 454 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,480 Speaker 2: is the best way to do it. And I think anyway, 455 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,560 Speaker 2: like by sheer volume of innings, it's Sandy, And I 456 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 2: really don't think that, like you said, detract, it doesn't 457 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:03,320 Speaker 2: detract from the fact that he's had to throw and 458 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:06,680 Speaker 2: he's been thrown into that gauntlet because like other guys 459 00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:08,960 Speaker 2: have done it, Like other guys have pitched two hundred endings, 460 00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:10,439 Speaker 2: but they're not as effective as Sandy. 461 00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:13,959 Speaker 3: So here's another stat for you on a sheer run 462 00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:16,840 Speaker 3: prevention perspective, because I guess he just you know, he 463 00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:20,040 Speaker 3: is an ERA champion, given that he doesn't put guys away, 464 00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:22,719 Speaker 3: so FIP will always kind of play against him. Al 465 00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:26,399 Speaker 3: Contra never posted a month this season where his ERA 466 00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:31,639 Speaker 3: was over three. Every month this season he posted a 467 00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:36,760 Speaker 3: sub three ERA. He went twenty two times he pitched 468 00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:37,640 Speaker 3: into the seventh inning. 469 00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:41,280 Speaker 2: Do we know what his highest ERA was and maybe. 470 00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:46,280 Speaker 3: Ninety three? Wow? Do you know what his whip was 471 00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,160 Speaker 3: that month? It was point ninety seven in that span 472 00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:53,440 Speaker 3: of games, and yet he had the third highest case 473 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:55,840 Speaker 3: for nine. He had this best strikeout to walk ratio 474 00:24:55,960 --> 00:25:01,359 Speaker 3: that month, so a little bit more contact. But that 475 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:04,399 Speaker 3: being said, like it's just an attestament to him, you know, 476 00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:07,080 Speaker 3: I mean, you even if you there's a million different 477 00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:09,399 Speaker 3: look at it. If you look at win probability added 478 00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:12,760 Speaker 3: a side of the picture. Because of what we just 479 00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:15,800 Speaker 3: talked about and that he has to pitch so many 480 00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:20,440 Speaker 3: high leverage innings, we talk about situational win probability added 481 00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,240 Speaker 3: four point four. Al Contra is the best. He's the 482 00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:25,159 Speaker 3: best pitcher in the National League when it comes to 483 00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:32,359 Speaker 3: a rising rising to the occasion. And again it's just 484 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:35,160 Speaker 3: I mean, there's a consistency to his performance. You look 485 00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:38,280 Speaker 3: at hitters leading off the inning, they hit one sixty seven, 486 00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:43,720 Speaker 3: the first batter of the of the game, one sixty 487 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:47,240 Speaker 3: seven leading off an inning, one sixty four collective ops 488 00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:50,399 Speaker 3: four twenty two. For those guys, he just, you know, 489 00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:53,080 Speaker 3: regardless of where you are in the batting order and 490 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:58,600 Speaker 3: regardless of when it is in a game, he kind 491 00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 3: of just maintained this very even keeled degree of I guess, 492 00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:09,760 Speaker 3: just performance, right, So what there are metrics that do 493 00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:15,560 Speaker 3: say otherwise? That being said, though, you know, the biggest 494 00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:17,360 Speaker 3: maybe if the biggest thing is you want to look 495 00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:19,960 Speaker 3: at how he performs later in games. He hasn't he 496 00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:22,320 Speaker 3: hasn't allowed an earned run, and then I think he 497 00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:25,639 Speaker 3: didn't allowed and earn run in six nine inning appearances 498 00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:27,720 Speaker 3: this season is the e RA in the eighth inning. 499 00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,600 Speaker 3: He picked into the eightning sixteen times this year two 500 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:34,920 Speaker 3: thirty five. So again his R in the sixth inning 501 00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:37,440 Speaker 3: is four. But the later he gets into those games, 502 00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:39,879 Speaker 3: his R just gets better and better because he feels 503 00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,640 Speaker 3: the momentum his arm is like it feels like he's 504 00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:46,560 Speaker 3: just getting loose. Opponent's batting average goes down in those 505 00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:50,159 Speaker 3: innings like he just again, there's just something about you know, 506 00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:52,720 Speaker 3: like you could pitch a lot of innings allah like 507 00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:56,960 Speaker 3: a Jack Morris in the eighties and and finished with 508 00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:59,560 Speaker 3: the RA around four and they're valuable innings, but they're 509 00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:01,680 Speaker 3: not label in the sense that you're going to be 510 00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:04,800 Speaker 3: up for a rewards voting on a yearly basis. But 511 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:07,600 Speaker 3: when you can pitch a high number of innings and 512 00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:10,680 Speaker 3: prevents at the rate that he is, again, it's just 513 00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:15,960 Speaker 3: for the lat to say, I'm you know, repeating myself 514 00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,359 Speaker 3: one thing, but I think that's just one of the 515 00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:19,680 Speaker 3: things that makes them special. 516 00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:23,680 Speaker 1: Then me ask you, guys, I'm looking at more stats 517 00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:26,720 Speaker 1: from Sandy and obviously I want to just you know, 518 00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:28,560 Speaker 1: go ahead and defind some more status for me for 519 00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:31,119 Speaker 1: people that don't know, I'm looking at win probability. He 520 00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:33,159 Speaker 1: had a point six and twenty twenty two point four 521 00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:36,160 Speaker 1: and twenty twenty one five point five in twenty twenty two. 522 00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:38,800 Speaker 2: Can you guys maybe help define because I know you 523 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:39,840 Speaker 2: just mentioned. 524 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:43,680 Speaker 1: Win probability added Lewis, can you really define what that 525 00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:46,280 Speaker 1: means in terms for a pitcher and maybe the number 526 00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:50,200 Speaker 1: that Sandy posted this year and how maybe that effects 527 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:53,560 Speaker 1: also is maybe cy young case and maybe how great 528 00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:56,119 Speaker 1: of a year Sandy's having just with the win probability. 529 00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:59,359 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean again, it's situational. We just talked about 530 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:03,159 Speaker 3: his ability to kind of show up when he's chasing 531 00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:07,280 Speaker 3: complete games. And generally you will see that WPA leaders 532 00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:11,560 Speaker 3: for pitchers tend to be relievers because they're in a 533 00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:13,920 Speaker 3: lot of the times win probability average does take into 534 00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:17,000 Speaker 3: account leverage index. That's why there is a static called 535 00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:20,399 Speaker 3: situational win probability added. And because the Marlins play so 536 00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:24,280 Speaker 3: many low scoring games, al Contra is the leader in 537 00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:27,960 Speaker 3: both respective categories. Are just general win probability added, i e. 538 00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:30,240 Speaker 3: When he's on the field, he has helped his team 539 00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:33,639 Speaker 3: more than any other pitcher in the National League and situationally, 540 00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:35,840 Speaker 3: when the team needs him the most to win, he 541 00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,880 Speaker 3: has been the most effective pitcher the win probability added 542 00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:41,280 Speaker 3: is you know an adam you can add on to this. 543 00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:44,880 Speaker 3: It's more of an assessment of how you kind of, 544 00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:48,440 Speaker 3: like I said, rise to the occasion and are able 545 00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:52,680 Speaker 3: to maybe put out fires that either could start or 546 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:55,040 Speaker 3: ones that did start, and you kind of just want 547 00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:57,320 Speaker 3: to limit the damage. He in this case has been 548 00:28:57,400 --> 00:28:58,440 Speaker 3: best at doing there. 549 00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:02,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, so there is kind of one gripe I have 550 00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:05,200 Speaker 2: with the whole idea of when's probably added Lewis, and 551 00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:09,720 Speaker 2: it's it kind of seems like it's the term clutches 552 00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:12,600 Speaker 2: way of trying to get in the analytics world, and 553 00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:16,640 Speaker 2: we're just not gonna let it happen because you can't 554 00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:20,240 Speaker 2: really account for a mental aspect of a player in 555 00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:23,120 Speaker 2: a situation and see alasy more clutch than another player 556 00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:27,360 Speaker 2: because it's a random event, right, And in statistics, we 557 00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:30,560 Speaker 2: want we want to account for an event's randomness as 558 00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:34,040 Speaker 2: much as possible, and we wanted we want trials to 559 00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:38,840 Speaker 2: be randomly conducted, and because we don't want any systematic bias, 560 00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:40,200 Speaker 2: and even though it has nothing really to do with 561 00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:42,880 Speaker 2: the situation, we just don't want to have any sort 562 00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:46,680 Speaker 2: of clutch factor working in its way here. For me, 563 00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:48,760 Speaker 2: it's not really something that you want to look into 564 00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:52,880 Speaker 2: because I think at the time, when Juan Soto hit 565 00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,640 Speaker 2: his triple which turned into like, you know, a big 566 00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,600 Speaker 2: catastrophe like Trent Grisham in a twenty nineteen wild card, 567 00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 2: I think at the time that was like the highest 568 00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:02,960 Speaker 2: WPA play and that's really should have been in Major 569 00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:05,840 Speaker 2: League Baseball playoff history and or might have been Major 570 00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:08,960 Speaker 2: League Baseball history of mant Hoverson, sure, but regardless, it 571 00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:12,280 Speaker 2: was a single that Trent Grisham Boston right field that 572 00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:15,400 Speaker 2: he bobbled and Soto made his way around the bags 573 00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:17,160 Speaker 2: and the bases were loaded and just so happened to 574 00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:19,560 Speaker 2: score three runs and it tied the game, and it 575 00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:22,920 Speaker 2: was in the eighth inning. And you know, that's there's 576 00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:29,480 Speaker 2: so many like variables that are in so many unnecessary 577 00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,640 Speaker 2: independent variables that are messing with the whole equation. Right, 578 00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:36,440 Speaker 2: So you have the eighth inning, we have the seventh 579 00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:39,240 Speaker 2: inning or the sixth inning. Whether you're pitching in any 580 00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:43,040 Speaker 2: inning is irrelevant, right, because an inning is an inning 581 00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:47,480 Speaker 2: in an a normative sense, right, So that's why we 582 00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:49,840 Speaker 2: see wins project that. That's that's my gripe in my 583 00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:52,840 Speaker 2: issue with WPA and lewis kind of what you were saying. 584 00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:56,480 Speaker 2: It's more of a it's more correlative with the statistics 585 00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:59,560 Speaker 2: that you do use to pick the award winners or 586 00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:01,320 Speaker 2: the ones, so you kind of use to compare and 587 00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:04,959 Speaker 2: contrast more than it is the predictor itself. They'll BEPA. 588 00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:08,040 Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, if you really want to look at 589 00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:10,880 Speaker 3: like it like, regardless of whether you take stock in it, 590 00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:13,680 Speaker 3: look at the turn of the century and pictures who 591 00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:17,000 Speaker 3: have post starting pitchers because again, relievers tend to accrue 592 00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:19,320 Speaker 3: it a lot more because they're in higher leverge spots 593 00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:23,360 Speaker 3: at least as when probability added uses as a barometer 594 00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:26,480 Speaker 3: for I guess garnering value. If you look at the 595 00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:30,360 Speaker 3: pitchers who posted win probability added seasons of five or higher, 596 00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:33,600 Speaker 3: a contract posted more WPA this year than twenty fourteen 597 00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:35,240 Speaker 3: Clayton Kershaw did. And I don't know if you guys 598 00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,440 Speaker 3: remember that season that was one hundred and ninety eight 599 00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:40,400 Speaker 3: innings of a one to seventy seventy RA and one 600 00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:43,920 Speaker 3: of the best pitching seasons in recent memory, even if 601 00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:46,320 Speaker 3: you know you're playing in Dodger Stadium and all that 602 00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:50,160 Speaker 3: win probability added still accounts for situations like you noted. 603 00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:53,720 Speaker 3: But the seasons that al contras kind of sandwich between 604 00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:56,160 Speaker 3: in this sense are some of the better pitching seasons 605 00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:59,280 Speaker 3: we've seen in the first part of the twenty first century. 606 00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:01,680 Speaker 3: I mean, you got two thousand and nine Sex Granky, 607 00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:04,840 Speaker 3: two thousand, Randy Johnson, Cy Young, Cliff Lee, like these 608 00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:08,560 Speaker 3: are you know, most It's definitely, like you said, a 609 00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:11,760 Speaker 3: good indicator for awards voting, because almost every name on 610 00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:16,000 Speaker 3: this list, in each respective season took home the highest 611 00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:17,960 Speaker 3: honor that we generally give to pictures. 612 00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:20,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, and looking at the other stats that we saw 613 00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:22,560 Speaker 1: with WPA one that I was looking at, I know, 614 00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:25,560 Speaker 1: if you guys can explain this to me and maybe 615 00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:27,440 Speaker 1: for some other people. The r E twenty four I 616 00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:29,600 Speaker 1: was looking at. That's a set I've never really heard of, 617 00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:33,120 Speaker 1: and it showed that Sandy had a percentage of almost 618 00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:36,440 Speaker 1: I believe, thirty percentage points from twenty twenty one to 619 00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:38,760 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two. And I don't know that's something to 620 00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:42,080 Speaker 1: look at that's subject to even mention but to you, guys, 621 00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:46,000 Speaker 1: is r E twenty four even a stat that's even used. 622 00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:48,920 Speaker 2: Right, So, Daniel, to kind of answer your question, the 623 00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:51,240 Speaker 2: are twenty four metro that you're looking at. I actually 624 00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,160 Speaker 2: did kind of a project on it my sophomore year 625 00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:57,959 Speaker 2: of college where we were looking at the change. It's 626 00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,520 Speaker 2: basically what it is. It measures the difference or the 627 00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:06,240 Speaker 2: change and run and run expectancy from the beginning of 628 00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:09,400 Speaker 2: the plate appearance or the at bat to the very 629 00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:11,520 Speaker 2: end of it. For the for the twenty four different 630 00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:14,360 Speaker 2: based out scenarios there are in baseball. And really what 631 00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:16,440 Speaker 2: that means just a bunch of jargon to say, Okay, 632 00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:20,240 Speaker 2: you've got guys on different bases and you know, different 633 00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:22,880 Speaker 2: outs in the inning, and a guy at the at 634 00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:25,880 Speaker 2: the plate, and there's the different combinations. There's twenty four 635 00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:31,040 Speaker 2: of them. So what this really means is we're seeing 636 00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:36,320 Speaker 2: the amount, like the difference in uh, the sorry, the 637 00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:40,160 Speaker 2: change and run expectancy from the beginning of an average 638 00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:43,160 Speaker 2: Sandie al Contra plate appearance when he's on the mound 639 00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:47,080 Speaker 2: to the very end of it. Saying and so in 640 00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:51,000 Speaker 2: this regard, if you're seeing that Sandy is much lower higher, 641 00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:53,200 Speaker 2: I didn't actually look where the where he is on 642 00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:56,680 Speaker 2: the leaderboard. Obviously, when we have that number, it kind 643 00:33:56,720 --> 00:33:59,640 Speaker 2: of gives it. It's very similar to I think this 644 00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:01,240 Speaker 2: is this is one where I kind of do like 645 00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:04,400 Speaker 2: to see more. It's very similar to w It's similar 646 00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:07,480 Speaker 2: in a way to WPA, but I like it more 647 00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:10,800 Speaker 2: because it kind of just gives you. It's it's a 648 00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:15,800 Speaker 2: little bit more. It's easier to use in a simulation 649 00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:18,520 Speaker 2: where you can kind of see different ways that a 650 00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:22,279 Speaker 2: player like you can calculate many different ways and see 651 00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,840 Speaker 2: it in a different kind of situation, in many different scenarios, 652 00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:28,560 Speaker 2: what can happen and how he's how he's performed in 653 00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:32,919 Speaker 2: those situations. So Sandy in this regard, I'm guessing he's 654 00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:35,680 Speaker 2: done pretty well. But that's really what it is with 655 00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:39,279 Speaker 2: RI twenty four kind of answer your question. The higher 656 00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:42,440 Speaker 2: the number, the more runs, the higher run expectancy that 657 00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:44,279 Speaker 2: he has prevented as a result of him being on 658 00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:44,720 Speaker 2: the mountain. 659 00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:48,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, and just looking at the other shaft, I think 660 00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:50,240 Speaker 1: another one we got to look at is war probably, 661 00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:53,520 Speaker 1: you know, we really can signify how player's done that season. 662 00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:56,640 Speaker 1: And I was looking at the War for Sandy from 663 00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:58,920 Speaker 1: different sites. And you look at Baseball Reference having him 664 00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:01,160 Speaker 1: in an eight point one, and then you also have 665 00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:04,160 Speaker 1: I believe fangraps at the five point seven Lewis, we 666 00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:05,759 Speaker 1: went to the game. You showed me a whole bunch 667 00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:10,920 Speaker 1: of different wars from different players fan Baseball Reference. Why 668 00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:13,920 Speaker 1: are there such a bit of viout between graphs in 669 00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:16,680 Speaker 1: Reference in terms of their war for Sandy? If that's 670 00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:19,480 Speaker 1: something to look at, well, it's maybe not like eight 671 00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:21,680 Speaker 1: point one. Another one site has seven point eight. It's 672 00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:25,480 Speaker 1: eight point one. Another site has five point seven. It's 673 00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:29,319 Speaker 1: almost three full points. If that just something that fangraphs does. 674 00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:32,160 Speaker 1: Are they more meticulate to their maybe how they get 675 00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:35,440 Speaker 1: war compared to the Baseball Reference And how do you 676 00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:37,800 Speaker 1: see that those sides for Sandy in terms. 677 00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:41,160 Speaker 3: Of war the way that war works. I guess with Fangraps, 678 00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:44,080 Speaker 3: Fangraphs does tend to value certain things over others. I mean, 679 00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:47,080 Speaker 3: you know, Baseball Reference, I guess you could say is 680 00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:53,480 Speaker 3: maybe the more traditional baseball statistical reference site as opposed 681 00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:57,080 Speaker 3: to fangraps, because fangraphs is rooted in more analytics and 682 00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,719 Speaker 3: a lot of guys who write for them, you know, 683 00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:01,960 Speaker 3: do tend to kind of move on and get jobs 684 00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:06,000 Speaker 3: with organizations. Is if it like a Devin thinker, you 685 00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:08,160 Speaker 3: know a couple of other people that I'm maybe not 686 00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:13,239 Speaker 3: naming well. I guess the Fangrafts does tend to give 687 00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:16,359 Speaker 3: more credence to pitchers who do a better job at 688 00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:19,440 Speaker 3: limiting walks, and they do value strikeouts in the way 689 00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:22,400 Speaker 3: that Adam was talking about it. So they're very fit dependent. 690 00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:25,040 Speaker 3: They're very strikeout dependent. A little good a guy like 691 00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:28,400 Speaker 3: Dylan c. Dylan Ces by Baseball Reference War I believe 692 00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:31,200 Speaker 3: as six point four war, but Fangrafts has him at 693 00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:33,959 Speaker 3: like four point four because he led the American League 694 00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:36,800 Speaker 3: in walks this year, but he was also very effective 695 00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:39,200 Speaker 3: when it came to striking guys out, so it didn't 696 00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:42,160 Speaker 3: totally warp his value. But there's a variance there because 697 00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:44,680 Speaker 3: they have two different things that they value. I guess 698 00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:47,160 Speaker 3: Baseball Reference maybe when you look at them you can 699 00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:48,960 Speaker 3: kind of assess, all right, they're more maybe on the 700 00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:52,280 Speaker 3: run prevention side. They don't really care as much about 701 00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:55,080 Speaker 3: how it's done. They just kind of care that you're 702 00:36:55,160 --> 00:37:00,239 Speaker 3: actually doing it. And that's maybe why Sandy is he 703 00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:03,080 Speaker 3: is on Baseball Reference and where he is on fangraphs, 704 00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:05,120 Speaker 3: they see that he doesn't put guys away with the 705 00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:08,319 Speaker 3: propensity that say a Freed would, or a Sureser when 706 00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:10,800 Speaker 3: he's LB, or even the Graham if he's giving you 707 00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:15,600 Speaker 3: thirty starts that being said again, So a five and 708 00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:19,080 Speaker 3: a half win season is still incredibly valuable. But baseball 709 00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:21,200 Speaker 3: perspectives too, has a different version of war. I'm not 710 00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:22,680 Speaker 3: sure off the top of my head what they have 711 00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:26,440 Speaker 3: for Sandy, but they just take different factors into account, 712 00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:28,920 Speaker 3: or at least they ascribe more value to different facets 713 00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:32,720 Speaker 3: and what a player does respective to his positional peers 714 00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:35,880 Speaker 3: that gives them their total value. 715 00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:41,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, oh, go ahead, go ahead. Oh sorry, no. So 716 00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:45,759 Speaker 2: the reason why Baseball Reference war is different from fangraphs 717 00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:49,960 Speaker 2: war is because fang graphs war takes into account fit 718 00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:53,279 Speaker 2: into their war calculation and the pitching more calculation that is, 719 00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:56,960 Speaker 2: whereas Baseball Reference takes into account runs allowed per nigh. 720 00:37:57,680 --> 00:37:59,959 Speaker 2: And that's where I kind of was having an issue 721 00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:02,160 Speaker 2: with early on this might that's always been kind of 722 00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:05,960 Speaker 2: my gripe with or sorry, Baseball Reference pitching war, just 723 00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:10,520 Speaker 2: simply because it's not really taken into account somewhat of 724 00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:13,200 Speaker 2: a luck factor in what some of the things that 725 00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:15,719 Speaker 2: a pitcher can't really control for on his own. And 726 00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:20,680 Speaker 2: I think in my world I value the independence of 727 00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:22,319 Speaker 2: a guy and what he can do on his own 728 00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:24,920 Speaker 2: a lot more. Just in general, I admire that. So 729 00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:28,800 Speaker 2: I think with a guy like like a a godless 730 00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:31,680 Speaker 2: who has had more individual success than any other pitcher 731 00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:36,320 Speaker 2: in Major League baseball according to fang Rafts four, he 732 00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:38,480 Speaker 2: was kind of like the guy I was looking at earlier. 733 00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:41,640 Speaker 2: So that's like, that's kind of the difference between FIP 734 00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:44,359 Speaker 2: and Baseball Reference War. And the reason why you're seeing 735 00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:48,800 Speaker 2: Sandy having as much higher pitching refer sorry Baseball Reference 736 00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:51,719 Speaker 2: War is because a the stit number of volume, and 737 00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:55,360 Speaker 2: they take into account that in their calculation. And be's 738 00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:58,399 Speaker 2: because he's allowed very few runs and especially a very 739 00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:01,319 Speaker 2: very very low home run eight. If you look at 740 00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:05,440 Speaker 2: Fanggrafts War, they're going to take into account the independent 741 00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:09,040 Speaker 2: pitching metrics. Right, we talked about strikeouts, We talked about walks, 742 00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:12,200 Speaker 2: we talked about home runs, the three the three true 743 00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:17,280 Speaker 2: outcomes in baseball. Because Sandy is not super super proficient 744 00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:20,040 Speaker 2: in the strikeout metrics, the walks and the home runs 745 00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:23,160 Speaker 2: he's very very good, which is booing him booing his 746 00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:26,840 Speaker 2: pitching war if anything. In fangrafts, however, he's only striking 747 00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:29,279 Speaker 2: out eight guys per nine innings, and Michael Benchmin he's 748 00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:31,480 Speaker 2: just he's a finesse guy who's gonna low, he's gonna 749 00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:36,000 Speaker 2: ride on that lower spin to really make guys, to 750 00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:38,120 Speaker 2: really confuse guys with his fastball, because it's just going 751 00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:41,239 Speaker 2: to be absolutely filthy because it's just he's thrown at 752 00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:44,080 Speaker 2: one hundred miles an hour. But regardless, you've got guys 753 00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:46,400 Speaker 2: who are striking out four more guys up to four 754 00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:50,080 Speaker 2: more guys per nine with show Hey Rodin, Garrett Cole, 755 00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:52,560 Speaker 2: Dilan C's Corbyn Burns, And I guess if you really 756 00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:54,879 Speaker 2: want to stick into the National League, you wouldn't really, 757 00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:58,120 Speaker 2: you know, I just mentioned the other guys. But for me, 758 00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:00,680 Speaker 2: that's that likely. Not not for me, that's really the 759 00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:04,960 Speaker 2: reason why Sandy is lagging behind in fang grass just 760 00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:09,480 Speaker 2: because he's not leading in the category of strikeouts or 761 00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:13,000 Speaker 2: he's really liking behind in that. And that just happens 762 00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:15,720 Speaker 2: to be a very very important metric for fang graphs, 763 00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:19,400 Speaker 2: especially when you're taking to account that they really like 764 00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:22,360 Speaker 2: putting away the batter as quickly as possible and not 765 00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:25,719 Speaker 2: even allowing him to even get the opportunity to put 766 00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:29,240 Speaker 2: the ball in play or risk a base runner reaching 767 00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:32,920 Speaker 2: base right. So that's why fang Grass for me kind 768 00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:34,600 Speaker 2: of wins out a little bit. But for awards, you 769 00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:37,839 Speaker 2: average them out and it's still that. But that's that's 770 00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:39,680 Speaker 2: that's the kind of the reason why they differ in 771 00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:43,440 Speaker 2: why Sandy is such a polarizing, like a near binary 772 00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:47,759 Speaker 2: difference in between one and the other. So that's that's 773 00:40:47,760 --> 00:40:48,719 Speaker 2: that's kind of the reason why. 774 00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:51,400 Speaker 1: And and also looking at some other big you know 775 00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:55,000 Speaker 1: Sandy stats. You know, I believe Lewis gave you the 776 00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:58,040 Speaker 1: stat a couple of days ago about how Sandy has 777 00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:01,440 Speaker 1: faced or saw the most hitters in the majors. I 778 00:41:01,520 --> 00:41:04,920 Speaker 1: believe he's at eight hundred and eighty six. How is 779 00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:06,600 Speaker 1: it when you just have a guy like that, this 780 00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:10,400 Speaker 1: seeing guy, a guy almost seeing a thousand a thousand 781 00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:13,520 Speaker 1: hitters in the Major League and still providing you with 782 00:41:13,719 --> 00:41:16,439 Speaker 1: the low fit, the low era, getting guys out going 783 00:41:16,920 --> 00:41:19,959 Speaker 1: in long innings and still seeing almost a thousand guys. 784 00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:25,920 Speaker 3: Like I said, it's you know, to not repeat myself. 785 00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:27,400 Speaker 3: And by the way, the third guy a thirt two 786 00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:30,880 Speaker 3: hundred innings was Miles Michaeliss, guy that Adam kind of 787 00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:33,640 Speaker 3: talked about where he may not be a Fangraft starling 788 00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:37,319 Speaker 3: because he doesn't strike guys out, but he also kind 789 00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:39,359 Speaker 3: of just induces a lot of soft contact because he's 790 00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:42,239 Speaker 3: a two same sinker guy. That being said, again, it's 791 00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:45,960 Speaker 3: just it just kind of circles back to the way 792 00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:49,040 Speaker 3: that Baseball Reference value Sandy and that what actually happened 793 00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:53,200 Speaker 3: on the field is that he was inning for not 794 00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:55,160 Speaker 3: even inn for inning, just at the end of the day, 795 00:41:55,239 --> 00:41:57,000 Speaker 3: he was the most valuable because he was out there 796 00:41:57,080 --> 00:42:00,920 Speaker 3: the longest and he kind of and that didn't necessarily 797 00:42:01,040 --> 00:42:04,920 Speaker 3: deter performance. I think that's why he was where he is, 798 00:42:04,960 --> 00:42:06,600 Speaker 3: and that's why he faced the number of hitters that 799 00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:08,960 Speaker 3: he did. And I mean, like, listen, if you want 800 00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:11,279 Speaker 3: to chalk it up this way, I'm sure fangrafs put 801 00:42:11,360 --> 00:42:14,200 Speaker 3: some value in the fact that he was sixth and 802 00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:17,320 Speaker 3: hits for nine in the National League while also facing 803 00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:20,239 Speaker 3: the most batters. So not only do you do a 804 00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:24,280 Speaker 3: great job at preventing hits at least allowing them in bunches, 805 00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:26,800 Speaker 3: but you also face more people than anybody else. So 806 00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:31,239 Speaker 3: it's like, Okay, this year, you're out a lot, you're 807 00:42:31,280 --> 00:42:32,960 Speaker 3: out of you're out here on the mount a lot 808 00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:35,279 Speaker 3: of the time, but there ain't many guys that are 809 00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:36,279 Speaker 3: getting on base against you. 810 00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:41,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, and just for for Sandy, you know, seeing all 811 00:42:41,560 --> 00:42:42,200 Speaker 2: those hitters. 812 00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:45,880 Speaker 1: Just let me ask you, also, Adam to just what 813 00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:48,319 Speaker 1: kind of value is it, you know, having a guy 814 00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:51,160 Speaker 1: like that and just going inning by inning by inning 815 00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:54,520 Speaker 1: and still seeing multiple guys and you know, you have 816 00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:56,440 Speaker 1: him out there eighth or ninth inning and he's throwing 817 00:42:56,560 --> 00:42:58,719 Speaker 1: up to one hundred and ten, one hundred almost maybe 818 00:42:58,760 --> 00:43:00,799 Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty pitches by the end of the game. 819 00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:05,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, for me, like, it's something that is 820 00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:08,880 Speaker 2: very impressive. Definitely, But there's kind of a reason as 821 00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:10,800 Speaker 2: to why it's been phased out of Major League baseball 822 00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:13,960 Speaker 2: because you want to see you value the longevity of 823 00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:15,719 Speaker 2: a pitch over the course of his career rather than 824 00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:17,680 Speaker 2: what he can do over the course of a regular season. 825 00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:21,200 Speaker 2: And especially when you have a guy who is as 826 00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:22,920 Speaker 2: young as Sandy al Contra, you want to be able 827 00:43:22,960 --> 00:43:24,600 Speaker 2: to last him, and especially when you can in a 828 00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:29,040 Speaker 2: day and age where we're leveraging relievers, or we're valuing 829 00:43:29,120 --> 00:43:32,520 Speaker 2: relievers I should say in a much higher circumstances we 830 00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:36,960 Speaker 2: used to exploiting them or using them in much higher 831 00:43:37,000 --> 00:43:39,240 Speaker 2: leverage situations that we used to in many different ways 832 00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:44,000 Speaker 2: starting them. The list goes on and on with the 833 00:43:44,040 --> 00:43:46,320 Speaker 2: reasons why relievers have just been more valuable, and I 834 00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:49,400 Speaker 2: think it just kind of goes to show that Sandy 835 00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:51,919 Speaker 2: has defied and turned back to clock in a way 836 00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:55,000 Speaker 2: back maybe ten years, because this was the norm that 837 00:43:55,040 --> 00:43:58,120 Speaker 2: pitched two hundred innings. Now we're seeing the best teams, 838 00:43:58,200 --> 00:44:00,960 Speaker 2: even guys who are elites started is being capped at 839 00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:04,799 Speaker 2: one sixty, one seventy because they're being We're now seeing 840 00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:08,000 Speaker 2: two three four guys out of the bullpen throw eighty 841 00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:12,720 Speaker 2: ninety fire innings, guys like Ryan Helsley or a Joanna 842 00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:17,000 Speaker 2: Goego's and the Cardinals instead of having Wayne Wright go 843 00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:19,080 Speaker 2: eight nine innings like he used to, right, And that's 844 00:44:19,160 --> 00:44:21,640 Speaker 2: obviously because he's much older, But in general, that's what 845 00:44:21,719 --> 00:44:25,440 Speaker 2: the trend is going in in total. Obviously Michael has 846 00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:28,640 Speaker 2: broke that, but for me, that's kind of what Sandy 847 00:44:28,719 --> 00:44:30,399 Speaker 2: has been very good at this year. 848 00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:35,239 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean even crazier is like you know, we 849 00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:37,800 Speaker 3: taught I think the biggest thing as far as pitching 850 00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:40,360 Speaker 3: philosophy goes when we talk about guys throwing less innings 851 00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:46,560 Speaker 3: is the biggest, maybe the biggest caveat that coaching staffs 852 00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:52,480 Speaker 3: have at keeping maximizing output from pitchers on an inning 853 00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:54,960 Speaker 3: forrating basis is the times for the order effect. And 854 00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:57,799 Speaker 3: we always say, like, you know, exit velocity maybe tend 855 00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:00,919 Speaker 3: to go up slightly with guys as as they face 856 00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:04,160 Speaker 3: hitters a third time, but if you look at mere 857 00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:07,480 Speaker 3: output against Sandy, they have he has an opponent ops. 858 00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:12,200 Speaker 3: His opponent ops third time through the order and thirty 859 00:45:12,239 --> 00:45:14,680 Speaker 3: five less plate appearances is the same as it is 860 00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:17,440 Speaker 3: the second time through the order, six thirty eight, So 861 00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:23,040 Speaker 3: you know, ain't not very productive. You're not really getting 862 00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:24,799 Speaker 3: any better. And then fourth times of the order again 863 00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:27,839 Speaker 3: fifteen times he faced hit or four times or more. 864 00:45:27,960 --> 00:45:31,720 Speaker 3: This year fifty nine plate appearance is a four fifty 865 00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:35,200 Speaker 3: six ops. So again he's just deeper in games. He's 866 00:45:35,239 --> 00:45:40,400 Speaker 3: a unicorn. He's a unicorn, and that he doesn't belong 867 00:45:41,280 --> 00:45:45,120 Speaker 3: in this baseball university. And there's really no other way 868 00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:45,560 Speaker 3: to put that. 869 00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:47,279 Speaker 2: I mean, he just. 870 00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:52,440 Speaker 3: Deeper he gets into the game the worst. The hitters 871 00:45:52,560 --> 00:45:53,080 Speaker 3: tend to get. 872 00:45:54,560 --> 00:45:58,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, and because we know, like Sandy still fourth time, 873 00:45:58,239 --> 00:46:01,680 Speaker 1: still throwing over one hundred miles pro our, still throwing heat. 874 00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:04,319 Speaker 1: Still still you know, one of the best pictures even 875 00:46:04,480 --> 00:46:09,239 Speaker 1: that deep in the game. And we're pretty deep in 876 00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:13,320 Speaker 1: this pod our almost fifty minutes. Now. This is you know, 877 00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:16,799 Speaker 1: our first episode of Physiology. Try doing this every week, 878 00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:19,760 Speaker 1: maybe bi weekly, see if you can get more players. 879 00:46:20,040 --> 00:46:21,560 Speaker 1: Think of more players in the Marlins so we can 880 00:46:21,640 --> 00:46:24,239 Speaker 1: go deep dive on their stats. But let us know 881 00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:27,840 Speaker 1: what you think. Go like share, subscribe to the to 882 00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:31,439 Speaker 1: the obviously the YouTube channel and the podcast network where 883 00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:35,040 Speaker 1: you're gonna get all that. Follow us on Twitter. Adam Lewis, 884 00:46:35,080 --> 00:46:36,520 Speaker 1: I want to thank you so much for coming on. 885 00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:38,120 Speaker 2: You know now you're on here. 886 00:46:38,160 --> 00:46:40,040 Speaker 1: Now we got to do this every week, you know, 887 00:46:40,520 --> 00:46:43,759 Speaker 1: Kevin Isaac, they have unfiltered, but Phisiology is where it's 888 00:46:43,800 --> 00:46:44,279 Speaker 1: gonna be at. 889 00:46:44,360 --> 00:46:47,719 Speaker 2: This is the this is a new podcast now ology. 890 00:46:48,280 --> 00:46:51,480 Speaker 1: And and I want to thank also Eli for helping 891 00:46:51,600 --> 00:46:56,160 Speaker 1: us out recording everything, getting everything set up. Can I 892 00:46:56,160 --> 00:46:58,280 Speaker 1: have done it without him? But this is just the beginning. 893 00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:02,600 Speaker 1: This is Phisiology Episode one, and there's still plenty more 894 00:47:02,680 --> 00:47:05,400 Speaker 1: to come, so thank you for listening and stay tuned.