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Speaker 1: Let me be the first one to wish you a

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Speaker 1: very happy New Year. Welcome in to the first twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty two edition of the Deal Juice podcast with me

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Speaker 1: Matt Pereltz here on Betting Pros dot com. You guys

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Speaker 1: can follow me on Twitter at sports dot Matt each

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Speaker 1: surday morning. We're here thanks to bet MGM and the

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Speaker 1: offer ten dollars to win one hundred dollars always above

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Speaker 1: me here on YouTube. Use that promo cod juice one

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Speaker 1: fifty at betmgm or betmgm dot com wherever BETMGM is there.

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Speaker 1: New accounts only use that promo code juice one fifty

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Speaker 1: when you sign up YouTube for the video for Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros and always where your audio podcasts can be found. Okay,

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Speaker 1: this is going to be a quick podcast because it

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Speaker 1: is late. It is approaching I don't know, ten ten

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Speaker 1: thirty on the West Coast. I'm sure you guys are

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Speaker 1: going to be getting up early in the morning to

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Speaker 1: watch these bowl games. I've got three picks on the

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Speaker 1: early games, and then I'm going to wait on the

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Speaker 1: Rose Bowl and I'm gonna wait on the Sugar Bowl

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Speaker 1: because my radio slash. I don't know what you want

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Speaker 1: to call Dave Sherpan, now my co host of my

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Speaker 1: other show. He and I are gonna be doing a

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Speaker 1: Twitter spaces chat because there are some big questions like

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Speaker 1: Chris Alave for Ohio State, some line movements, guys in,

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Speaker 1: guys out. I want to see where we are here

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Speaker 1: with all that. So I'm gonna hold off on and

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Speaker 1: I'll post those picks in the Discord channel once I

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Speaker 1: do make the selection for the Orange for the Rose

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Speaker 1: Bowl and the Sugar Bowl. But I've got three picks

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Speaker 1: for you guys early in the day the three bowl

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Speaker 1: games that happened before the formerly known as BCS Bowl Games.

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Speaker 1: But to recap yesterday, Cincinnati, we got that wrong. But

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Speaker 1: I'm telling you, man, since he had chances that first

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Speaker 1: drive in which they had to kick a field goal

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Speaker 1: if they scored seven. There the first pass got batted down,

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Speaker 1: which was a theme for Desmond Ritter all day long.

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Speaker 1: That gets completed, that's touchdown. Or the second pass which

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Speaker 1: got dropped by the wide receiver. If that catches made,

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Speaker 1: then it's seven to seven, and maybe it's a little

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Speaker 1: bit different. The muffed punt at the end of the

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Speaker 1: first half changed everything. Now, if you had bet Bama

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Speaker 1: min seven seven and a half in the first half.

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Speaker 1: You were fortunate because that should have been recovered, could

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Speaker 1: have been recovered by Cincinnati, and then maybe the game

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Speaker 1: goes differently. Bama still wins. It's just do we get

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Speaker 1: the fourteen point cover or not. So Bama was impressive,

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Speaker 1: but since he had I thought some moments and they

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Speaker 1: just missed on some big opportunities that could have kept

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Speaker 1: them in the game and maybe made a little bit prettier.

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Speaker 1: But Bama gets the win, they advance and then the

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Speaker 1: second game went pretty much how I thought it was

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Speaker 1: going to go. Georgia just took apart in Michigan. Michigan. Look,

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Speaker 1: I know Harball had a big year. I know he

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Speaker 1: beat Iowa in the Big Ten title game, big deal.

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Speaker 1: I know he beat Ohio State. Okay, great, Sure, it's

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Speaker 1: a nice win. It's the first win for him. He

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Speaker 1: needed it desperately. But that was a walk in the park.

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Speaker 1: We got the you know, we got the unit back

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Speaker 1: or zero point nine back on that. So the day

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Speaker 1: wound up being a winning day because Wake fourst kicked

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Speaker 1: a field goal to cover the nine and a half

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Speaker 1: first half spread with two seconds left, So we just

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Speaker 1: get that. So even though it's a small day, a

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Speaker 1: small winning day, it is a winning day. Okay. By

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Speaker 1: the way, I will go ahead and do some math.

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Speaker 1: I'll tell you my entire record for the year twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty one. It wasn't a great year betting it was, Okay,

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Speaker 1: it was it was. It was pretty flat down the

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Speaker 1: Juice basically for the year. So shows you why it's

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Speaker 1: so difficult to win when you're gambling. But Dan Harris

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Speaker 1: did some great work and he texted me said, hey,

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Speaker 1: you know, I'm going to calculate the whole year. We'll

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Speaker 1: start a new year coming up on January first today,

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Speaker 1: to calculate the Daily Juice podcast picks. So hopefully twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty two is gonna be nicer. Twenty twenty was great.

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Speaker 1: We were up like fourteen thirteen thirteen units. I think

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Speaker 1: we were up in twenty twenty. I think we're down significantly,

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Speaker 1: probably twenty units or so in twenty twenty one. So

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Speaker 1: in the history of the podcast, I still think we're

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Speaker 1: down like ten units or so, But mostly it's just

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Speaker 1: down the juice after getting on Now, I think like

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Speaker 1: two thousand, five hundred bets in the history of this

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Speaker 1: podcast which is absolutely insane if you think about it.

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Speaker 1: But let's talk about today. I'm not gonna go in depth, Okay,

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna give you what. I'm gonna pick out

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Speaker 1: what I'm betting, and then we're gonna kind of move

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Speaker 1: kind of fast here on the bowl games. Okay, So

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Speaker 1: we have five of them going today, Penn State, Arkansas, Iowa, Kentucky,

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Utah, Ohio State, and Baylor Ole

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Speaker 1: Miss Utah, Ohio State and Baylor Ole Miss Discord channel

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Speaker 1: later today. Those games are five o'clock eastern, eight forty

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Speaker 1: five Eastern for those two games, so basically early afternoon,

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Speaker 1: early evening for me on the West coast. But I

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Speaker 1: will post those. So let's talk about Penn State and Arkansas.

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Speaker 1: The line is three for Arkansas, opt out in COVID

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Speaker 1: for Penn State. They're missing some big weapons in this game.

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Speaker 1: They got Clifford coming back. Look, I think in terms

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Speaker 1: of the ability to run the football, I know this

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Speaker 1: Penn State defense has been decent this year, and I

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Speaker 1: know people are saying, you know, I just don't know

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Speaker 1: about Archis ability to run the football. But hey, look,

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Speaker 1: if Arkansas can move the ball. They score thirty points

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Speaker 1: per game. Penn State defense is going to keep them

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Speaker 1: in the game. I just don't love this Penn State offense,

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Speaker 1: and I don't think when you're missing some real key

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Speaker 1: components like Dobson, you're missing your best wide receiver. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna lay three points here with Arkansas. I think Arkansas

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Speaker 1: is gonna win the Outback Bowl. I call me an

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Speaker 1: sec Homer, call me whatever. Arkansas has played some real

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Speaker 1: high caliber, really difficult tests defensively, they've seen this Arkansas

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Speaker 1: seven to four and one to the number, the three

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Speaker 1: to one and one away from home. You know, they

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Speaker 1: covered against Missouri. They covered against Alabama on the road

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Speaker 1: where they lost by seven points. Look that they beat

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Speaker 1: LSU this year. They beat MISSISVI State. This year. They

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Speaker 1: got beat badly by Auburn, which is a pretty bad

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Speaker 1: loss at home for them. But I mean they played Georgia.

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Speaker 1: I mean the level of competition this team has played

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Speaker 1: is really impressive, and I think winning a bowl game

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Speaker 1: is significant for Arkansas. I'm gonna lay the three points

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Speaker 1: Arkansas minus three against Penn State in the Outback Bowl.

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Speaker 1: Half a unit, you guys don't have betting Half of

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Speaker 1: units except for the National Championship. In the playoff games,

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Speaker 1: I'm betting half a unit because of all the opt

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Speaker 1: outs in COVID and everything else. There's almost too many

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Speaker 1: to list for how many how many problems these teams

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Speaker 1: have for COVID and whatnot, But half a unit. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna lay Penn State Arkansas. I'm gonna lay the three

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Speaker 1: points with Arkansas in the Outback Bowl. Second game of

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Speaker 1: the day is the Citrus Bowl with Iowa and Kentucky.

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Speaker 1: Again big ten against SEC. This number is Kentucky minus three.

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Speaker 1: And what's interesting about this game is and I just

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Speaker 1: want to double check on this, so yeah, well just

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Speaker 1: about this game totals forty four. Ioways got a bunch

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Speaker 1: of opt outs, a bunch of their talented you know,

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Speaker 1: running backs and receivers who are out in their offense.

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Speaker 1: Stinks anyway, Kentucky eight and four on the year against

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Speaker 1: the number. Iowa was seven and six, three and two

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Speaker 1: away from home for Kentucky, three and three for Iowa.

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Speaker 1: Last two games of the year both covers and wins

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Speaker 1: for Kentucky, where they won by thirty one and they

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Speaker 1: one by forty here okay, yeah, Iowa lost to Michigan badly.

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Speaker 1: They beat Nebraska on the road by seven. Okay, but

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Speaker 1: I don't know if Iowa really wants to be in

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Speaker 1: this game Citrus Bowl Kentucky fans. I mean this is look,

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Speaker 1: Iowa travels okay, and Iowa's just to play the SEC.

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Speaker 1: But I don't think they've got the offense to really

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Speaker 1: keep up. And I know their defense is really good, Okay,

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Speaker 1: I know Iowa can keep them STI keep them in

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Speaker 1: the game. Much like the last handicap. I think Iowa's

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Speaker 1: defense is why this number is three, but Kentucky scores

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Speaker 1: thirty three points per game. Iowa gives up nineteen points

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Speaker 1: per game. Iowa scores twenty three point nine points per game.

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Speaker 1: Kentucky only gives up twenty two points per game. I

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Speaker 1: just don't think this offense. I think Kentucky's defense is

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Speaker 1: vastly under rated. It's hard to run on these guys

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Speaker 1: three point six yards per rush for Kentucky, and look,

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Speaker 1: Iowa can't pass six point two yards per pass play

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Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy seven yards, and they're missing guys

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Speaker 1: who have opted out who aren't going to play in

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Speaker 1: this game. For Iowa, I just think Kentucky is the

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Speaker 1: more motivated team. I think Kentucky is the more talented team.

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Speaker 1: And then Kentucky has played a more difficult schedule than

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Speaker 1: Iowa has. I mean again, Kentucky has played teams in

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Speaker 1: the SEC. They've played Georgia, they got beat badly, but

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Speaker 1: they played Georgia, they played Florida, they played non conference games.

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Speaker 1: They have been very good in the non conference, by

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Speaker 1: the way, beating Louisville, beating New Mexico State, beating Louisiana Monroe.

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Speaker 1: Not huge world beaters, but you know they've done a

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Speaker 1: good job beating non conference teams. It's a short number.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna lay the three here with Kentucky for a

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Speaker 1: half a unit, Kentucky minus three against Iowa. Yes, I'm

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Speaker 1: fading Iowa again for I don't know the upteens thousandth time.

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Speaker 1: But we were right with the Michigan game, and they

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Speaker 1: coming be right here with the Citus Bowl with Kentucky

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Speaker 1: minus three. And the last pick for the pod, and

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Speaker 1: this might be the most controversial this number is pick

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma State Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. Okay, which

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Speaker 1: team travels, which team's gonna have more fans? It's gonna

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Speaker 1: be Notre Dame, right, But Notre Dame has gotten a

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Speaker 1: million opt outs, number one wide receiver, number one running back,

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Speaker 1: Best Hamilton's out, their best safety. This Oklahoma State defense

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Speaker 1: is legit, all right. I don't think. I don't personally

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Speaker 1: don't believe Notre Dame is gonna move the ball all

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Speaker 1: that much here on Oklahoma State. Think people have been

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Speaker 1: sleeping on Oakie State's defense for far too long. The

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Speaker 1: Irish have to run to move the football. Two point

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Speaker 1: seven yards per rush for Oklahoma State really hard to run.

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Speaker 1: These guys. Six point three yards per past play is

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Speaker 1: fifteen best in the country. Giving up eighty eight point

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Speaker 1: two yards per game on the ground, that's fifth best

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Speaker 1: in the country. Oakie State's defense is a reason why

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Speaker 1: they win this game, in my opinion. I know they've

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Speaker 1: got some opt outs as well, and there was no

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Speaker 1: whole Mike Gunday to Florida thing that was going on,

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Speaker 1: and maybe some distractions, but I think the key big

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Speaker 1: players for the Irish are out. I think there's a

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Speaker 1: little bit of an over cell here on the Irish,

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Speaker 1: and I think this number probably should be like Oklahoma

200
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Speaker 1: State minus three. I got it. As a pick here.

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Speaker 1: I think Oklahoma State comes in here. Both these teams

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Speaker 1: are great against the number Okie State nine to three

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Speaker 1: and one, Notre Dame nine and three, Okie State five

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Speaker 1: and one away from home against the number, Notre Dame

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Speaker 1: four and one against the number, and the Irish covered

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Speaker 1: the last seven games. Okay, I do think that's factoring

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Speaker 1: into why people like Notre Dame here. But remember Oklahoma

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Speaker 1: State after the Oklahoma Baylor game, they won by four

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Speaker 1: a push there at home, they were laying four, and

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Speaker 1: they lost by five to Baylor in the Big Twelve

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Speaker 1: championship game as seven point favorites. I lost that game

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Speaker 1: by five, but before that they had run out a

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Speaker 1: streak of eight straight of eight straight covers. So both

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Speaker 1: these teams were very good against the spread this year.

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Speaker 1: But I think it's the defense that's the difference here.

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Speaker 1: I think the Irish struggled to score in Glendale is

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Speaker 1: what I got it. Oklahoma State on a pick just

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Speaker 1: to win the game at minus one ten, I'll take

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Speaker 1: the Irish to lose to the Cowboys here. Oklahoma State

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Speaker 1: over Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl, which could be

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Speaker 1: one of the more entertaining days games of the entire day.

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Speaker 1: So all right, So I will have plays for the

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Speaker 1: other two bowl games, but they'll happen in the Discord

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Speaker 1: channel later on today after I go through the live

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Speaker 1: chat with Dave Sherripan and whatnot on on well it's

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Speaker 1: on Twitter, and we'll do that, and then I'll have

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Speaker 1: two more plays coming up later. I'll post them on

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Speaker 1: Twitter as well as post them on in the Discord channel.

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Speaker 1: But again I want to say about Chryst Lave and

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Speaker 1: see what's going on for the Rose Bowl and the

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Speaker 1: Sugar Bowl coming up. So three picks for you guys

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Speaker 1: here on the podcast, half a unit each of them. Okay,

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Speaker 1: we're going for Oklahoma State pick against Notre Dame, Kentucky

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Speaker 1: minus three against Iowa, and early nine am kickoff for

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Speaker 1: Penn State Arkansas. Laying the three with Arkansas half a unit,

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Speaker 1: so one and a half units in play here for

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Speaker 1: the early games and another unit in play for the

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Speaker 1: late games coming up here today on New Year's Day

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Speaker 1: at Sports Talk Matt on Twitter to follow me. Much

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Speaker 1: more to come on these games as we roll through

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Speaker 1: a New Year's Day, Big college football bull Day, as

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Speaker 1: it always is traditionally my na's Matt Parolt to follow

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Speaker 1: me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt. Each In morning,

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Speaker 1: it's the Deal Juice podcast, always being brought to you

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Speaker 1: by BETHAMGM