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Speaker 1: The most valuable commandity I know of is information.

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Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree to greet one five dollars?

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Speaker 1: This is a road up having a table ship. You're

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Speaker 1: saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable.

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Speaker 2: Humans need fantasy to be human.

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Speaker 3: My goodness that lets you guys are prone, bets, relentless,

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Speaker 3: refusing to give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn, bab Bless theirs. Hello and

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Speaker 1: welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast presented by Pride Picks.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Samantha Vidi. Every Tuesday here on this podcast,

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Speaker 1: I'll be joined by a luminary from the fantasy football

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Speaker 1: community for a fast paced round of twenty one questions.

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Speaker 1: On today's episode, I am super excited to be joined

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Speaker 1: by the one and only Mike Lay, a long time

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Speaker 1: ESPN fantasy expert and respected NFL player projectionist who you

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Speaker 1: can find on Twitter at my Clay NFL and all

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Speaker 1: over ESPN, on Fantasy Football, Now, the Fantasy Focused Podcast,

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Speaker 1: the Fantasy Show, Sports Center, everywhere. You are the nerd king,

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Speaker 1: the absolute goat of this industry, so we are super

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Speaker 1: super excited to have you hear. How the heck are

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Speaker 1: you well?

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Speaker 3: First of all, I appreciate the nerd king title. That's

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Speaker 3: something that you know, when you're a kid, being a

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Speaker 3: nerd isn't, you know, usually viewed as a good thing.

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Speaker 3: But I think more and more of these days it

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Speaker 3: is because we all have kind of our nerdy habits,

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Speaker 3: and you know, obviously playing with numbers and fantasy football

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Speaker 3: certainly fits the bill.

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Speaker 2: But I enjoy it and it's a lot of fun.

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Speaker 3: I enjoy, you know, diving into all this stuff, and

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Speaker 3: that's what I do all off season, frankly, So that's

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Speaker 3: what I've been up to. I've been researching, working on projects.

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Speaker 3: We have some new columns we're going to be doing

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Speaker 3: this year at ESPN, so I've been kind of working

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Speaker 3: with the team on that and what that's going to

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Speaker 3: look like. So there's always work to be done. There's

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Speaker 3: always you know, it's a d after it's free agency.

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Speaker 3: We have cut day coming up now, so that's going

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Speaker 3: to be crazy because you know, you know, to your

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Speaker 3: point and the nerdy stuff, I mean, I'm doing projections

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Speaker 3: for punters and kickers and returners.

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Speaker 2: And head coaches.

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Speaker 3: You know, you can use that as an option at ESPN,

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Speaker 3: so every player matters, so every cut that's made. I'm

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Speaker 3: making a little adjustment on my end making those maneuvers.

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Speaker 3: There's trades, but right now there was just a trade

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Speaker 3: for a defensive tackle for a center. That's gonna affect

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Speaker 3: things in some way. So always working, always something to do.

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Speaker 1: Tell us one non fantasy thing you did this summer

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Speaker 1: when you're not projecting defensive tackles.

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Speaker 3: Started getting into lifting a little bit, you know, doing

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Speaker 3: some weightlifting, getting in shape a little better. I think

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Speaker 3: it's because I turned thirty six during the offseason, and

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Speaker 3: I feel like that might be a number where it's like,

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Speaker 3: oh man, like I'm past thirty five now, getting closer

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Speaker 3: to forty. Now it's time to ramp it up a

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Speaker 3: little bit. I've never really been into weightlifting. I have

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Speaker 3: a good friend who was used to be a trainer

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Speaker 3: at Ohio State works in NASCAR now and he's kind

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Speaker 3: of helped me out. So been doing that for a

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Speaker 3: couple of months, just getting started. But I've been enjoyed

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Speaker 3: it a lot. So that's probably the biggest change for

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Speaker 3: me is, you know, a little diet adjustment and working

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Speaker 3: out a bit. So we won't show from the arms

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Speaker 3: down yet, but maybe next year it'll be a it'll

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Speaker 3: look a little different.

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Speaker 1: I am looking forward to the gun show. Tell me

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Speaker 1: how the Action Charity Best Ball is going for you.

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Speaker 1: I drafted JK. Dobbins, so obviously I think they're not

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Speaker 1: looking super great. But tell us about how your team

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Speaker 1: is looking.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so I have a I actually have a Family

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Speaker 3: and Friends Dynasty League, one of my oldest leagues, where

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Speaker 3: I have the cam Akers and JK. Dobbins, so I

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Speaker 3: hate for I'm great cam Akers and Scott fish Bowl too,

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Speaker 3: so I have quite a bit of Akers. But anyway,

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Speaker 3: as for the Action Charity League, which which is awesome.

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Speaker 3: By the way, thank you for your part in this.

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Speaker 3: It's gonna be a lot of fun. I'm looking forward

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Speaker 3: to competing against you because we've never actually done that before.

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Speaker 1: So I know I'm already off to a great start,

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Speaker 1: but it'll be fun.

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Speaker 3: Well, so you do have a Chubb and Taylor, I see,

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Speaker 3: so you have you still have some uh some good

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Speaker 3: running back options. But I'm happy with it. You know,

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Speaker 3: I took Saquon Barkley at fourth overall. You know, I've

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Speaker 3: been taking him all off season long, to much criticism,

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Speaker 3: and he just looks better and better and better. Every

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Speaker 3: day and the discount you can get on him right

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Speaker 3: now if it you know, if he plays and he's

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Speaker 3: healthy this year, it's going to pay off in a

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Speaker 3: big way. So you know, got him. Got Najee Harris, Ceedee,

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Speaker 3: Lamb Brandon, I, Miles Sanders, Oldgan, Thomas Lebskus, Schanal.

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Speaker 2: I know you weren't pleased about that one. Justin Herbert.

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Speaker 3: I took a lot of guys I feel like who

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Speaker 3: are not being drafted at their ceiling, a lot of

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Speaker 3: room for growth. So really excited about this team. A

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Speaker 3: lot of youth injected at the wide receiver position, and

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Speaker 3: we'll see you probably need a little more running back depth.

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Speaker 3: But we still five rounds to go in this one

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Speaker 3: as of the time we're recording this, so still some

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Speaker 3: work to be done.

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Speaker 2: But I'm happy with it.

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Speaker 1: That is awesome, all right, Mike, let us just hop

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Speaker 1: right in here. So question one is what year did

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Speaker 1: you start playing Fantasy and did you win your first league?

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Speaker 2: I did.

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Speaker 3: I remember actually doing the scoring, so I don't know

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Speaker 3: what year it was. I remember two players from my team,

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Speaker 3: Herman Moore and Carl Pickens, So I have to imagine

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Speaker 3: you've never heard of it's fair.

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Speaker 2: So that was in the nineties.

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Speaker 3: They were the best receiver on the Lions was Herman Moore,

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Speaker 3: which they could probably use him today. To be honest,

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Speaker 3: I only remember those guys, but we just had a

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Speaker 3: few players in it. My dad made the rules. I

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Speaker 3: actually tweeted the rules for it, the scoring for it.

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Speaker 3: People enjoyed it because it was so bizarre, like my

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Speaker 3: dad just made it up. Imagine just coming up with

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Speaker 3: scoring and roster positions at it with no information. You know,

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Speaker 3: you don't know anything about fantasy and the scoring is

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Speaker 3: so bizarre.

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Speaker 1: So that is so I love that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, oh yeah it was. It was a lot of fun.

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Speaker 3: So I would get the newspapers during the week and

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Speaker 3: I would actually manually score because we didn't have you know,

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Speaker 3: ESPN dot com to do it for us.

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Speaker 2: So but yeah, I did.

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Speaker 3: I do remember that way back when, bits and pieces

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Speaker 3: of it. But I do remember winning that league, and

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Speaker 3: I mean I kept scoring, so maybe that was part

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Speaker 3: of why I won.

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Speaker 1: But you know, well, I love that story, all right,

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Speaker 1: So tell me what are the best and worst parts

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Speaker 1: about playing fantasy football? For you?

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Speaker 3: The best is just look like I grew up a nerd.

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Speaker 3: I'm still a nerve. But you know, growing up, I

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Speaker 3: always wanted to be a GM or a coach or

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Speaker 3: you know. I used to write letters to coordinators and

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Speaker 3: gms and stuff and send them plays I thought would work,

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Speaker 3: and just.

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Speaker 1: You know, I really want to see these letters.

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Speaker 3: Now this is all find them. I think I have

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Speaker 3: some of their responses. I'll have to dig those out.

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Speaker 3: But you know, I was always into that kind of thing.

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Speaker 3: So when I kind of really got into fantasy, it

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Speaker 3: was the same kind of thing. Right, you can manage

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Speaker 3: a team. I really love dynasty because you can manage

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Speaker 3: it year round and there's that aspect to it. So

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Speaker 3: that's the best part, just that you know that that

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Speaker 3: interest I have, and in just football and managing it,

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Speaker 3: in the numbers and the process.

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Speaker 2: I really enjoy all of that.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 3: The worst is just I mean we all would probably

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Speaker 3: say the same thing here. It's just the negativity out there.

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Speaker 3: You know, you know the people that get really angry

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Speaker 3: if you missed a call. You know, it's a process.

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Speaker 3: You're gonna get stuff wrong. That One of the best

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Speaker 3: pieces of advice I could give anyone, whether you're playing

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Speaker 3: fantasy or you're an analyst, is when you're setting your

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Speaker 3: and writing an article knowing that you will get stuff wrong.

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Speaker 3: You if they accept that first, then build your process

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Speaker 3: around that, knowing that there's a wide range of variants,

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Speaker 3: and then go forward that way and give the best

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Speaker 3: advice possible.

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Speaker 2: But you already know you're not going to hit on everything.

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Speaker 3: There's always going to be bad things that happen, injuries,

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Speaker 3: You're going to miss on some guys.

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Speaker 2: It's part of the process.

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Speaker 3: But man, people get really mad about that kind of

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Speaker 3: stuff at an unreasonable level. I wish we could cut

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Speaker 3: down on that. Have more positivity in this world. Everyone

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Speaker 3: needs to go watch Ted Lasso be more like Ted

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Speaker 3: Lasso and then well be happier.

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Speaker 1: People amen to that. We absolutely need more positivity in

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Speaker 1: this world. So all right, jumping into the actual fantasy stuff.

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Speaker 1: We are kicking it off with a quick segment called

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Speaker 1: the burn book. That is a mean girl's reference if

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Speaker 1: you were not sure. But as fantasy managers, it is

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Speaker 1: so easy to have recency bias, especially if a player

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Speaker 1: burned us either due to injuries or a bad season

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Speaker 1: last year. So we're going to run through five players

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Speaker 1: and I'd like you to tell us briefly how confident

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Speaker 1: you are that these players will return on investment at

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Speaker 1: their ADPs. So our first player is going to be

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Speaker 1: Dak Prescott. His ADP is currently QB five. He finishes

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Speaker 1: QB thirty obviously through five games, but was averaging twenty

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Speaker 1: seven point seven Fantasy points before that. He's coming off

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Speaker 1: of a major injury. Is he worth it at QB five.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no question about it.

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Speaker 3: You know, I was a little worried about his arm

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Speaker 3: injury earlier in the offseason. You know, Adam Schefter has

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Speaker 3: speculated that he may not be one hundred percent all

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Speaker 3: season long with that leg, but it seems like he'll

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Speaker 3: be good enough to play an extremely high level.

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Speaker 2: He also benefits from a very high volume offense.

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Speaker 3: Mike McCarthy came back to the NFL with one of

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Speaker 3: the fastest paced offenses in the NFL, maybe the fastest

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Speaker 3: paced offense in the league. So there's gonna be a

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Speaker 3: lot of plays, There's going to be a terrific supporting cast.

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Speaker 3: You're gonna have a healthy offensive line, You're gonna have

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Speaker 3: maybe the best trio in the NFL at wide receiver,

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Speaker 3: not to mention Zee Glliott out of the backfield, and

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Speaker 3: You're gonna have a quarterback who's super talented. He was

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Speaker 3: QB two for you know, last time we saw him

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Speaker 3: in twenty nineteen for the full season, and he adds

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Speaker 3: some value with his legs as well. So I'm very

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Speaker 3: high in Dak Prescott. He's in that round five to

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Speaker 3: six range and that's where I'm looking for a quarterback

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Speaker 3: this year. So if he's there, I'm taking him.

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Speaker 1: That is great to know. All Right, our next guy.

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Speaker 1: You kind of gave us a little bit of a

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Speaker 1: preview here, but I'm going to Saquon Barkley at ADP.

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Speaker 1: His ADP is RB eight right now on Fantasy Pros,

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Speaker 1: which seems really really low for a guy that was

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Speaker 1: being drafted top two last season. He's obviously coming off

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Speaker 1: of a major injury. What is your outlook on him?

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Speaker 1: I assume he's not in your bird book right now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no way, no way. He'd better not be.

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Speaker 3: I mean, if he has a setback or another injury

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Speaker 3: or struggles this season, I'm gonna be in trouble because

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Speaker 3: I've been taking a discount on Saquan all off season long.

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Speaker 2: That will sting.

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Speaker 3: Not to mention that on National TV we did our

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Speaker 3: Fantasy draft during the marathon. I took him in the

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Speaker 3: middle of the first round, or I guess it was

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Speaker 3: eighth overall, took a ton of criticism, got mocked the

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Speaker 3: entire rest of the draft. Didn't sit well with me,

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Speaker 3: and I'm gonna I need, I need to go back

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Speaker 3: and kind of cut that footage up and show it again.

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Speaker 3: Should Barkley go on to have a really good season,

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Speaker 3: and if he doesn't, then I'll forget about all that footage, of.

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Speaker 1: Course, but you earned the victory. Laugh.

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Speaker 2: Well, we'll see, we'll see.

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Speaker 3: I'm very invested in Barkley, so we will see how

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Speaker 3: it goes this season. But yes, you know, the guy

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Speaker 3: just has such a high ceiling. He's been a superstar

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Speaker 3: in fantasy whenever he has played. When we last saw me,

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Speaker 3: he played almost ninety percent of the snaps for the

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Speaker 3: Giants last season, which is ridiculous. So look, if he starts,

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Speaker 3: he may start to well, you might have to deal

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Speaker 3: with that. You might you might see a little extra

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Speaker 3: DeVante Booker for a couple of weeks. But by all accounts,

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Speaker 3: his trajectory is still going up. He's getting very close

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Speaker 3: to full health. And I'll be shocked if he doesn't

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Speaker 3: play and play a pretty big role. Honestly, in week one, love.

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Speaker 1: To see it. I took him as RB five in

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Speaker 1: a draft and I got flack from it from other people. People.

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Speaker 1: People were saying that that was wrong pick. They didn't

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Speaker 1: like and like that he was such a risk. So

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Speaker 1: I really hope I'm rooting for him this year for sure.

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Speaker 1: Another running back that I'm going to talk about here

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Speaker 1: is Joe mix In. So his ADP is RB thirteen.

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Speaker 1: I've been getting him a couple times, kind of in

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Speaker 1: the middle of the second round. He's definitely a risky play.

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Speaker 1: He hasn't ever really delivered at his peak. But is

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Speaker 1: this his year? He finishes RB forty seven and a

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Speaker 1: half PPR through sixteen weeks. Obviously there were injuries involved

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Speaker 1: and Joe Burrow and whatnot. So what do you think

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Speaker 1: about him this year? Is he in your burn book?

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Speaker 3: I will gladly take Mixon in the middle around too.

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Speaker 3: He's RB thirteen for me. I mean, this is another

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Speaker 3: guy who's up there with the elite in terms of usage. Right,

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Speaker 3: So last season you mentioned he only appeared in six games,

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Speaker 3: played over eighty one or handled over eighty one percent

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Speaker 3: of their carries, twelve percent of the targets. He was

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Speaker 3: RB ten in Fantasy points per game the year before

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Speaker 3: when he had a pretty good season and he was

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Speaker 3: there all year, finished RB thirteen. He was at three

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Speaker 3: quarters of the carries and eight percent of the targets,

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Speaker 3: so we actually saw his usage go up last season.

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Speaker 3: He's only twenty four, may have just turned twenty five,

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Speaker 3: but nonetheless still very young in his prime. He's going

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Speaker 3: to play a big role in Bengals offense that you know,

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Speaker 3: they have good wide receivers. They should be teams should

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Speaker 3: be focused on stopping that trio a wide receiver. That

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Speaker 3: should open up some lanes for Mixed And I know

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Speaker 3: the old line isn't great, but it is a little

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Speaker 3: better than it's been in year.

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Speaker 2: Past with a good set of tackles.

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Speaker 3: So fine with mixing again as my RB two or

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Speaker 3: if you wait at that position and he's your one,

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Speaker 3: he has some RB one upside.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, I am just going with the fact that

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Speaker 1: Geo's not there and this is he's going to have

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Speaker 1: way more opportunities. So I'm excited about him. All right.

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Speaker 1: Leaviska Chanault his eighty if he is Wider's here forty two.

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Speaker 1: You know, I've been very high on him for a while.

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Speaker 1: He may have been a little over hypes last year,

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Speaker 1: but with the upgraded quarterback, one year under his belt,

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Speaker 1: and with ETN gone, do you think he will deliver

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Speaker 1: this year?

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Speaker 2: I do.

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Speaker 3: I'm very high on chanalt as you know, again, the

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Speaker 3: only league, the only draft we did together. I sniped

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Speaker 3: him from you, and I've done that all year long.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think his ADP has been in the

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Speaker 3: around the eighth round of twelve teamers. It's way too

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Speaker 3: low to be about a round earlier. Maybe maybe even

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Speaker 3: two rounds. You can make that case. Looks good in

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Speaker 3: the preseason. Yes, you're going to see a lot of

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Speaker 3: short area targets. That's okay, you know that. That's fine.

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Speaker 3: It's we're playing in PPR for the most part. If

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Speaker 3: you're playing in PPR, he's going to soak up a

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Speaker 3: ton of catches. I have from projected with eighty this season.

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Speaker 3: And look the guy, he's in his second year. He's

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Speaker 3: a former second round pick, super talented, terrific athlete, and

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Speaker 3: you would expect his role to increase from last season.

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Speaker 3: And that's key because you know, you look at last

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Speaker 3: season and I'm not I'm not.

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Speaker 2: Staring at the number right now, but he's going.

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Speaker 3: I think he was wide receive whred he finished wide

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Speaker 3: receiver forty forty six. He finished, and he's going. His

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Speaker 3: ADP right now is around wide receiver forty. That doesn't

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Speaker 3: make much sense, right, I mean, he was a part

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Speaker 3: time player most last season, he missed a handful of games,

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Speaker 3: and he finished forty sixth. He's being drafted around fortieth again,

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Speaker 3: a guy we expect to make a leap to see

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Speaker 3: a lot more target volume, a guy who has a

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Speaker 3: better quarterback situation, most likely assuming Trevor Lawrence is competent.

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Speaker 3: It just doesn't make sense. So he should certainly be

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Speaker 3: going earlier. I think he has you know, he's a

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Speaker 3: guy that could be a flex out of the gate,

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Speaker 3: but he is a lead upside. I mean, this guy

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Speaker 3: could just go off the season, right. So A big

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Speaker 3: fan of big fan of Chinall for sure.

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Speaker 1: Awesome. Well, I will never forgive you first sniping him

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Speaker 1: from me in our draft. But for our final guy

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Speaker 1: of the Vernbuck, we're going to talk about George Kittle.

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Speaker 1: His ADP is tight end three. He only played in

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Speaker 1: seven games, last year, finished his Titan twenty, finished his

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Speaker 1: Titan four though in twenty nineteen and titand three and

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Speaker 1: twenty eighteen. So is this his bounce back here? And

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Speaker 1: are you at all concerned about his injuries?

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Speaker 3: Not too worried about it. He's just a really good

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Speaker 3: football player. Get the guy is maybe the most well

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Speaker 3: rounded tight end in the NFL. He could block, he

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Speaker 3: could catch, he could do it all. He's in a

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Speaker 3: pretty good offense with a good leader there in Kyle Shanahan.

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Speaker 3: Obviously some quarterback question marks, but I have a lot

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Speaker 3: of faith in Kyle Shanahan to maximize that quarterback situation.

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Speaker 2: You know, last week, Kittle still very good in fantasy.

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Speaker 3: I mean he was kind of all over the place,

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Speaker 3: right He had those big games with forty and twenty

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Speaker 3: four points only in one other top twelve week, but

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Speaker 3: you know, he still saw right around eight targets per game.

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Speaker 2: His efficiency was through the roof last season.

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Speaker 3: He's never not been top three in fantasy points per game,

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Speaker 3: at least since he's been the full time starter. So

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Speaker 3: I know he's not a big touchdown guy, but Kittle

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Speaker 3: is a really good player and certainly belongs in that

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Speaker 3: top three at the position.

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Speaker 2: So if you want to grab him in round three,

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Speaker 2: I have no problem with that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a little bonus question. You what's your take

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Speaker 1: on Trey Lance versus Jimmy Garoppolo for Kittle's outlook.

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Speaker 3: Well, the thing with running quarterbacks like Lance, of course,

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Speaker 3: is there's gonna be fewer targets, right, They're gonna pull

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Speaker 3: it down and run more often. A lot of those

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Speaker 3: offenses are kind of built around that running game. They'll

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Speaker 3: be designed runs for the quarterback instead of throws and

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Speaker 3: say like third and three or third and two situations.

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Speaker 2: So that worries you a little bit.

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Speaker 3: I've just seen concerns with you know, Philadelphia with Jalen Hurts,

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Speaker 3: and you see it with other quarterbacks like of course,

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Speaker 3: Baltimore is the you know, the infamous one will say

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Speaker 3: the past few years with their wide receivers being fairly

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Speaker 3: useless in fantasy. So that does bother me a little

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Speaker 3: bit if they make that switch. But then again, if

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Speaker 3: Trey Lance is super efficient, super effective, it can you know,

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Speaker 3: pay dividends. And we know we know George Kittle will

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Speaker 3: see a pretty gigantic target share. So as long as

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Speaker 3: it gets that the quarterbacks shouldn't stop him from being

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Speaker 3: a top say, top five maybe top three option.

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Speaker 1: Well that is super, super encouraging for Kittle. So that'll

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Speaker 1: do it for the burn book. Our next segment is

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Speaker 1: called full send or that's CAP, which is sort of

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Speaker 1: the opposite of the last one. I'm going to give

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Speaker 1: you five players who probably outperformed expectations in twenty twenty,

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Speaker 1: and I want to know, are you sending it on

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Speaker 1: this player? That's like in ski terms, like when you

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Speaker 1: send it, you jump off a big jump and you

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Speaker 1: just go head.

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Speaker 3: On or estie, I'm not your younger than media, Like,

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Speaker 3: I'm like, what are these terms? I don't know any

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Speaker 3: of this stuff. So, and you're a skier, which I'm

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Speaker 3: not either, So that one's over my head too.

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Speaker 1: So send it them with high expectations or that's CAP

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Speaker 1: means like bs like you don't believe in it. That's

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Speaker 1: not true, it's a fallacy. So our first player that

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Speaker 1: we're going to check out here is Justin Herbert. So

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Speaker 1: I assume you're kind of high on him because you

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Speaker 1: just mentioned him in the intro, But he finished his

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Speaker 1: QB ten last year through thirty one touchdowns to just

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Speaker 1: ten interceptions. Are you going full send on him at

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Speaker 1: his ADP of QB eight or is he due for

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Speaker 1: a year two regression?

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Speaker 2: So full send is the good one?

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Speaker 3: Right? Yes, yeah, I'm I would say moderate send or

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Speaker 3: a little above of that, just because, like I said before,

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Speaker 3: where I'm attacking quarterback is like that Dak Prescott, Lamar

403
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Speaker 3: Jackson tier in the fifth and sixth round. However, if

404
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Speaker 3: I miss on those guys, they still on my quarterback

405
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Speaker 3: the next round. So we get into late six into seven.

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Speaker 3: I'm looking at Rogers, Wilson, and Herbert so in that range.

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Speaker 3: But I do like Herbert. I think he'll be fine.

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Speaker 3: He did benefit from a ton of volume on the

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Speaker 3: highest volume offensive we've seen it in the league over

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Speaker 3: the past decade. There's a coaching change there, so we

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Speaker 3: may not see that again this season. However, the guy

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Speaker 3: you know came out in no essentially nowhere, right. He

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Speaker 3: wasn't supposed to make that start in Week two, but

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Speaker 3: Tyrod had the had the issue with the IV. So

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Speaker 3: Herbert steps in and just lights it up right out

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Speaker 3: of the right, out of the out of the bag.

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Speaker 3: Thirty six total touchdowns, ten picks. I mean that's unbelievable

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Speaker 3: for a rookie who didn't even play in Week one,

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Speaker 3: so he was terrific. We usually expect quarterbacks to make

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Speaker 3: a second year leap, which we would expect from Herbert,

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Speaker 3: and if he does that, the guy is going to

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Speaker 3: be a bona fide superstar in the NFL at some value.

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Speaker 3: With his legs do super important this day and age.

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Speaker 3: So I do like justin Herbert a lot. I think

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Speaker 3: he's a mid range QB one and if you come

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Speaker 3: out of the draft with him as your starter, he

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Speaker 3: should feel pretty good.

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Speaker 1: That is awesome to hear because I am also very

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Speaker 1: high on him. I know there's concerns that their defense

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Speaker 1: is going to be super super strong, but I think

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Speaker 1: he's going to just get better in year two. So

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Speaker 1: our next guy is David Montgomery. In my drafts, it

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Speaker 1: seems like no one wants an anything to do with Monty.

434
00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:03,680
Speaker 1: He scored ten touchdowns, finished his RB six and half

435
00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:08,159
Speaker 1: PPR last season. Was his twenty twenty performance cap or

436
00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:10,399
Speaker 1: are you going full send on Monty?

437
00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:13,239
Speaker 3: Well, you know, I thought cap initially, but I've kind

438
00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:15,359
Speaker 3: of swung the other way because of Terray Cohen, and

439
00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:17,760
Speaker 3: it looks like he's struggling to come back from his

440
00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:21,400
Speaker 3: injuries torn acl early last season. You know, that's really

441
00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:24,200
Speaker 3: when Montgomery took off. His usage went way up when

442
00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:27,600
Speaker 3: Cohen went down, and then he took advantage of the very,

443
00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:29,680
Speaker 3: very easy schedule in the final month or so of

444
00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:32,280
Speaker 3: the season. It was a fantasy star. I mean that

445
00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:34,320
Speaker 3: one was that schedule was so easy that we saw

446
00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:36,040
Speaker 3: it coming for months. I mean, we were talking about

447
00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:37,800
Speaker 3: that for a long time. Go trade for this guy,

448
00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:39,760
Speaker 3: get him on your team. The Bears offense is in

449
00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:42,280
Speaker 3: great shaet. Montgomery's gonna be a huge finish during the

450
00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:44,440
Speaker 3: fantasy playoffs. It was so easy to see coming and

451
00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:47,680
Speaker 3: it happened, So we have to factor that in for sure.

452
00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:50,239
Speaker 3: I don't think he'll match his top five season from

453
00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:53,280
Speaker 3: last year, but I have moved him up to sixteenth

454
00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:56,600
Speaker 3: on my board and I found myself, you know, landing

455
00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:58,240
Speaker 3: him ocasionally. Now he's going in the third round, so

456
00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:01,359
Speaker 3: that's nothing crazy by any means. But he you know,

457
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:03,760
Speaker 3: his ADP is climbing a little bit, as it should be,

458
00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:06,480
Speaker 3: because if Cohen doesn't play where he's out for a

459
00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:08,520
Speaker 3: big chunk of the season, that's going to help Montgomery.

460
00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:11,200
Speaker 3: Now Damian Williams is there. He'll play a role, but

461
00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:13,160
Speaker 3: at some point, you know, when Cohen comes back, he'll

462
00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:15,680
Speaker 3: steal some of that some more of that passing down work.

463
00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:18,240
Speaker 3: That could hurt Montgomery. But for now, I think Montgomery

464
00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:19,520
Speaker 3: is a solid RB two.

465
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:24,280
Speaker 1: I completely agree there. All right. The next guy we're

466
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:27,520
Speaker 1: going to talk about is James Robinson. So everyone asked

467
00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 1: this offseason, who is going to be this year's James Robinson?

468
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,960
Speaker 1: With the injury to Etn, is this year's James Robinson?

469
00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:37,119
Speaker 1: James Robinson? Are you and are you going full send

470
00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:39,960
Speaker 1: on him? As a high end RB two, possibly low

471
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:40,720
Speaker 1: end RB one.

472
00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:43,880
Speaker 3: I don't think he could by definition be himself, right,

473
00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:45,840
Speaker 3: because it has to be like an undrafted guy that.

474
00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:48,639
Speaker 2: Came out of nowhere, right, it can't. Who would that be?

475
00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:52,800
Speaker 2: That would be like Ty Johnson or something, or no,

476
00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:54,679
Speaker 2: he's not a rookie, right, Jake Funk.

477
00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:58,880
Speaker 1: Javian Hawkins maybe who's that Javian Hawkins?

478
00:20:58,960 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 3: Maybe?

479
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:01,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, well you have he got cut and claimed by

480
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:02,240
Speaker 2: the Titans.

481
00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:03,520
Speaker 3: So I don't even know if he's gonna make the

482
00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 3: team there, but essentially someone right who at the last

483
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:09,000
Speaker 3: second we're adding as a flyer to our bench, kind

484
00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:11,560
Speaker 3: of like a Tyson Williams with Baltimore right now, though.

485
00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:12,480
Speaker 2: Again he's in his second year.

486
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:15,359
Speaker 3: But nonetheless to your point, he is back on the

487
00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:17,440
Speaker 3: upswing because of the injury to Etm.

488
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:19,280
Speaker 2: But it's a new coaching staff. But we don't know

489
00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:20,120
Speaker 2: what they're gonna do here.

490
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:22,159
Speaker 3: You know, is he gonna split the backfield with Carlos

491
00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 3: Hyde like he has during the preseason.

492
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 2: Are they going to.

493
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:28,600
Speaker 3: Use someone like Laviscus Channault in the backfield and passing situations,

494
00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:31,240
Speaker 3: or Taevon Austin or someone like that. Are they not

495
00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:33,200
Speaker 3: done at running back? You know, we're we're at final

496
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:35,640
Speaker 3: cut territory. They could claim someone. They have that first

497
00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:38,440
Speaker 3: spot to claim to claim guys who are a wave,

498
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:40,119
Speaker 3: they have first chance at those sort of players. They

499
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:42,400
Speaker 3: could trade for someone. They could still not be done.

500
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:46,840
Speaker 3: So I have I'm optimistic about Robinson relative to where

501
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,359
Speaker 3: I was. I thought he's going way too earlier early

502
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 3: in the offseason. But he's up to fifteen time my

503
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 3: board for now. But again, I don't really trust the

504
00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:57,399
Speaker 3: coaching decisions just yet. Just because I don't. It's not

505
00:21:57,400 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 3: a knock on Urban Myers, just we don't know what

506
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 3: going to do. We've never seen him coach an NFL

507
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,359
Speaker 3: game before, we don't know what his personnel usage is

508
00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:07,920
Speaker 3: going to be, so not I don't feel super strong

509
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 3: about spending a third round around him, which is probably

510
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:14,919
Speaker 3: where he belongs now, but you know I'm willing to

511
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:16,679
Speaker 3: do it if he falls a few spots past that.

512
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:19,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, there are so many unknowns in that offense at

513
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 1: this point, Where are you drafting Carlos Hide? Now?

514
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 2: Pretty low? Pretty low? Just you know, I have him

515
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 2: fifty first on my board.

516
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:31,000
Speaker 3: I'm sure I know other people have been prioritizing him,

517
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:33,159
Speaker 3: but I just don't see a high ceiling there. You know,

518
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 3: we've seen this the past few years. And look, I

519
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 3: loved Hide, you know, back in the forty nine ers years,

520
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,040
Speaker 3: super high in him. He helped me win a lot

521
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 3: of a lot of matchups in fantasy. But he's just been,

522
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:45,560
Speaker 3: you know, to like steal a term from baseball, he's

523
00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:47,680
Speaker 3: basically been an innings eater the past couple of years.

524
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:49,680
Speaker 2: Right, he just comes in and you'll grind.

525
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:53,640
Speaker 3: You know, he could handle fourteen fifteen carries average three

526
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 3: point eight or nine point yards per carry, but a

527
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 3: little below average score some touchdowns, not do really anything

528
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 3: in the passing game. So there's just a very very

529
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 3: limited upside there, So not too excited about him. I

530
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 3: think even if Robinson were to miss time, hid would

531
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 3: step in and have you know, flex value, But there

532
00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:12,879
Speaker 3: would be other people involved there as well, So not

533
00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 3: too high on.

534
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:16,480
Speaker 1: Hide there enough, all right, The next player we're going

535
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:19,359
Speaker 1: to talk about is Mike Davis, the journeyman. Came out

536
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 1: of nowhere last season, finishes RB twelve while filling in

537
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 1: for CNC. He has almost no competition out of the

538
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:29,160
Speaker 1: Atlanta backfield who just waves Javian Hawkins. As you mentioned,

539
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 1: Is he worth drafting as your RB two or was

540
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 1: last year cap?

541
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:38,640
Speaker 3: Yeah? I would say again if I'm following the terminology

542
00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 3: cap where I'm on the cap.

543
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:40,879
Speaker 2: Side here for sure.

544
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:43,640
Speaker 3: Look, you can easily see the path to a lot

545
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 3: of volume for Mike Davis this year, and we saw

546
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,120
Speaker 3: that from him early on last season, But I think

547
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 3: people forget that it started to wear off and down

548
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 3: the stretch right they started to work in more running backs.

549
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 3: He wasn't playing as well, He wasn't getting it nearly

550
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 3: as much volume. In that final you say month, month

551
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,120
Speaker 3: and a half and his production fell off big time.

552
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 3: This is a guy and it makes sense, right, this

553
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 3: is a guy that's never been a starter in the NFL.

554
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 3: He's never been a bell cow back. He actually got

555
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:13,360
Speaker 3: cut by before the Panthers got me. Actually got cut

556
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 3: by the Bears. You know, he didn't make that team

557
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,159
Speaker 3: when they had Montgomery and Cohen there. They cut him

558
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 3: loose latches on With the Panthers before last season, we

559
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:23,360
Speaker 3: didn't even know if he would make that team. So

560
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 3: he worked his way back, made the roster and obviously

561
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 3: went on to have a pretty good fantasy year. But

562
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 3: just you know, his that whole combination of you know,

563
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:34,040
Speaker 3: the lack of pedigree, lack of consistent production in the

564
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:35,960
Speaker 3: league is a concern, and also his age.

565
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:36,680
Speaker 2: You know, he's twenty eight.

566
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 3: We even had a twenty eight year old top twenty

567
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:40,439
Speaker 3: five running back in several years in the NFL.

568
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:41,399
Speaker 2: Right, it's hard to do.

569
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:44,120
Speaker 3: So, yes, I think we'll come out We'll be ranking

570
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 3: him as an RB two early in the season. He'll

571
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,359
Speaker 3: have some decent games, but I really worry about him

572
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:51,240
Speaker 3: holding up and being an effective fantasy back for the

573
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 3: whole season. So he's not a guy of any exposure

574
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 3: to if he has a big year, I'll, you know,

575
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 3: pay the penalty, I guess, but I'm not interested.

576
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,680
Speaker 1: Totally understood. Yeah, the durability was definitely a concern, all right.

577
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:05,919
Speaker 1: The final guy for this segment that we're going to

578
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 1: talk about is Robert Tunyan. So he finished his tight

579
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:11,959
Speaker 1: end three behind kelsneen Whiler last season after scoring whopping

580
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 1: eleven touchdowns, one in each season prior are you sending it?

581
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:19,439
Speaker 1: Is it at his ADP? It's tight end nine? And

582
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 1: can you tell us what a more realistic touchdown expectation

583
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 1: is for the year four tight end?

584
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:27,119
Speaker 3: Well, I have him with six and he had eleven

585
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 3: last year, So that's that answer. Here's the thing, Like

586
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 3: I would say, even certainly ten years ago, you know,

587
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,160
Speaker 3: around when I was new to the industry, and definitely,

588
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,920
Speaker 3: you know, maybe even like five years ago, Tanya would

589
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 3: have been going a lot earlier in fantasy drafts. But

590
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:45,159
Speaker 3: the industry is getting much smarter and we have more data.

591
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:48,400
Speaker 3: We've learned a lot more about touchdown regression to the means.

592
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:50,680
Speaker 3: Something again I've been doing for a long time articles

593
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,440
Speaker 3: Every year. The hit rate is unbelievable and people are

594
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:56,719
Speaker 3: learning that you cannot sustain super high touchdown rates. And

595
00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 3: I say that because Tanyan last year his touchdown efficiency

596
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 3: was one of the highest we've seen in over a decade.

597
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,919
Speaker 3: I mean, it was just through the roof unsustainable. He

598
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 3: can't come close to that. It just doesn't happen. If

599
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:10,920
Speaker 3: he does, it would be, you know, something we've never

600
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 3: seen in the league before.

601
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:14,679
Speaker 2: Is it possible? Of course, there's always a chance. But

602
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:15,959
Speaker 2: should you bet on that?

603
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 3: Should you bet on your you know, fantasy pics, your auction,

604
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 3: you know, your salary.

605
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,920
Speaker 2: Cap, league money, whatever may be on that. No, you shouldn't.

606
00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 3: But again, the industry is getting smarter. They understand that,

607
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 3: and that's why he's going in the ninth round this

608
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 3: year as opposed to I think he would be going

609
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 3: like in round five a decade ago, because people just

610
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:36,920
Speaker 3: would just expect another high touchdown total. But I say

611
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 3: all that because where he's going I have no problem

612
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 3: with it. You know, I took him. I waited a

613
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 3: tight end, kind of got bit there and he fell

614
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:43,960
Speaker 3: a little bit. I took him at scott Fish Bowl

615
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,120
Speaker 3: a few months ago. Otherwise I don't really have him

616
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:48,479
Speaker 3: at all. But the targets do need to go up

617
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:51,120
Speaker 3: tops at the touchdowns. It's really the only way he's

618
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 3: going to come close to what he did last season,

619
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 3: which was tight end four. I think they'll go up

620
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 3: a little bit. Nothing crazy. They didn't bring in Randall Cobb,

621
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,080
Speaker 3: so at the end of the end of the day,

622
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:02,359
Speaker 3: I think he's a borderline top ten tight end.

623
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,399
Speaker 2: Who lacks the ceiling, honestly. So that's how I feel.

624
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 3: But again, I want to be negative because I got

625
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 3: to go all in on the touchdown regression.

626
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:12,920
Speaker 2: But on the other hand, is ADP is pretty respectable

627
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:13,360
Speaker 2: right now.

628
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:15,639
Speaker 1: So did you say you have an estimate for the

629
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 1: number of touchdowns you think he'll score this year?

630
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:19,480
Speaker 2: Yep, I have them at six.

631
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 3: I'm expecting the Packers offense as a whole the come

632
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 3: back to earth a little bit. You can't again, you

633
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,439
Speaker 3: can't project players that they're ceiling every year, and we

634
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 3: saw one of Aaron Rodgers' best seasons ever last season,

635
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 3: so of course i'mone expect him to come back down

636
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 3: the earth at least a little bit.

637
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:35,359
Speaker 1: Fair enough, fair enough, I think it is an inexpensive

638
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:38,400
Speaker 1: way to buy in on the Packers offense for fantasy

639
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 1: managers during draft season. Next up here on the Fantasy

640
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:45,200
Speaker 1: Flex is a new segment we call Elite Entries, where

641
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 1: we'll dive into the Prize Picks app to build some entries.

642
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:51,359
Speaker 1: And for any listeners unfamiliar with Prize Picks, it's just

643
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:55,159
Speaker 1: a super simple way to play DFS. Prize Picks offers

644
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 1: a bunch of fantasy and prop markets for both daily

645
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:01,359
Speaker 1: and season long, like Zekelli at Rushing Yards this season

646
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:04,679
Speaker 1: or Josh Allen's Week one Fantasy Score. You choose the

647
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,360
Speaker 1: picks you like, and you build your entry. You can

648
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:10,919
Speaker 1: go with two, three, four, or even five picks, and

649
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 1: your payout is based on how big your lineup is

650
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:16,399
Speaker 1: and how much you risk. For example, let's say you

651
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 1: choose two props you go under unseek Rushing Yards and

652
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 1: over on Allen's Fantasy Points, and let's say you choose

653
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 1: twenty five dollars for your entry fee. If they both hit,

654
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 1: you'd win three times your entry fee seventy five dollars boom,

655
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:31,919
Speaker 1: just like that, And if you build your entry with

656
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 1: four props, you can win as much as ten times

657
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 1: your entry fee. So, like I said, really simple, I'll

658
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 1: identify some markets I like, you build your own prize

659
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:43,560
Speaker 1: pick entries all of us have a little fun and

660
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 1: make some money. Today, I'm going to look at four

661
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 1: NFL season long futures on prize picks. The first one

662
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 1: I like is Jalen Hurts over six hundred and fifty

663
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 1: five and a half rushing yards. Like many NFL fans,

664
00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 1: I'm still not fully sold on Hurts as a passer,

665
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 1: but he has undeniediable rushing outside. He averaged seventy nine

666
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 1: point three rushing yards per game in weeks fourteen through

667
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 1: sixteen as the Eagles starter, which extrapolates well into the

668
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 1: thousands on a seventeen game pace. I don't think he'll

669
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 1: hit that, but I think fifty rushing yards per game

670
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 1: is his floor, which would put him well over and

671
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 1: he could even miss a few games. Next, we have

672
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins under four two hundred and a half passing yards.

673
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 1: I hope this isn't controversial, but with cousins strident stance

674
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 1: against vaccination and low vaccination rates among the Vikings, there's

675
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 1: a non trivial chance this signal callers is at least

676
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 1: a game. Cousins passed for four two hundred and sixty

677
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 1: five yards last season. Over sixteen games with roughly the

678
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 1: same arsenal of weapons. Yes, there's an extra game this year,

679
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 1: but with his additional off field risk, this feels like

680
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:51,120
Speaker 1: an under for me. Next, we have Matt Stafford over

681
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 1: twenty nine and a half passing touchdowns. Stafford would have

682
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:58,520
Speaker 1: only hit the over once over the past four seasons. However,

683
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 1: he was on track to smashed the over in twenty

684
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 1: nineteen before his back injury and fell just shy of

685
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 1: it last year with twenty six with an extremely underwhelming

686
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:10,720
Speaker 1: cast of receivers. Kenny Galladay went down early and his

687
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 1: top wide outs were Marvin Jones and Danny Amandola. Now

688
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 1: he's at Cooper Cup, Robert Woods, and Tyler Higgey, behind

689
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 1: a significantly better offensive line, better coaching, and the extra game,

690
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 1: I fully expect him to pass for at least thirty touchdowns.

691
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 1: And finally, we have Alan Robinson over one thoy ninety

692
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 1: and a half receiving yards. Robinson's been a victim of

693
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 1: what we can generously refer to as subpar QB play

694
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:39,960
Speaker 1: his entire career, first in Jacksonville and most recently in Chicago,

695
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 1: but even opposite Nick Foles in Mitch Trubisky. Last season,

696
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 1: Robinson managed to reelin twelve hundred and fifty yards, his

697
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 1: third one thousand receiving yard season of his career. There's

698
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:52,760
Speaker 1: finally light at the end of the tunnel for Robinson

699
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 1: this year after the Barris drafted Justin Fields, who is

700
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 1: having quite the field day pun intended this preseason and

701
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 1: has looked super super sharp. This is great news for

702
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:05,360
Speaker 1: all the Chicago pass catchers. Field won't get the Week

703
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:07,480
Speaker 1: one start, but it's just a matter of time in

704
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 1: my opinion, and even Andy Dalton is an upgrade from

705
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 1: Folds and Trubisky. Robinson should smash the over here all right.

706
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 1: So that's our elite entry for today, going with Jalen

707
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:22,000
Speaker 1: Hurts season long rushing yards over, Kirk Cousins season long

708
00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:26,720
Speaker 1: passing yards under, Matt Stafford season long passing touchdowns over,

709
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 1: and Alan Robinson season long receiving yards over. If you

710
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 1: haven't created a Prize Picks account yet, check out the

711
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 1: link in our episode description because Prize Picks has a

712
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 1: special offer for Fantasy Flex listeners. They will match your

713
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 1: first deposit up to one hundred dollars. Just click the

714
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:46,920
Speaker 1: link in our episode description or visit prize picks dot

715
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 1: com and use promo code action ten. All right, let's

716
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 1: keep it moving here on twenty one questions. Pretty quick

717
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 1: questions to finish out the show and get you back

718
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 1: to your spreadsheets. Question thirteen is you are the king

719
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 1: of analytics in this space, the goat. But even us

720
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:06,680
Speaker 1: nerds can get a little emotional about players. Name one

721
00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 1: player you have trouble you just can't quit, or you

722
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,880
Speaker 1: make excuses for every year. So that for me is

723
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon.

724
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's fair for sure.

725
00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 3: You know what, I wrote the expression I just can't

726
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 3: quit the Drake in my annual Ultimate Draft Draft Board

727
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 3: article where I go round by round with the guys

728
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 3: I'm looking at and of course I'm like again, I mean,

729
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 3: I'm looking at Drake's ADP and it's fine, you know,

730
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 3: going in the tenth round. So I guess I'll go

731
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 3: with him. You know, I just I liked him as

732
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 3: an underrated prospect. I always wanted them to, you know,

733
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 3: to free him in Miami, give him more work. And

734
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 3: then he was pretty good, and then they didn't really

735
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 3: like him, so they ship him in Arizona had a

736
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:47,840
Speaker 3: really good year, and then you're like finally we're getting

737
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,760
Speaker 3: Kenyan Drake that second half, he's a certified RB one

738
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 3: and then the second year. Of course, last season, you know,

739
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 3: his utilization was so bizarre. They just made him a

740
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 3: you know, early first and second down back. He just

741
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:02,960
Speaker 3: wasn't targeted, was used between the tackles. You know, in

742
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:05,360
Speaker 3: an offseason interview, he even said he didn't understand it.

743
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 3: He didn't like that at all, but that was Cliff's

744
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 3: plan and you just went with it. But he expects

745
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:12,320
Speaker 3: to be used a little bit more in a dynamic

746
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,000
Speaker 3: role in with the Raiders. So you know, he's getting

747
00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 3: up there in age relive, you know, running back wise,

748
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:19,760
Speaker 3: in turn, you know, relative to running backs. But I

749
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 3: like the role he's in. You know, he's been a

750
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 3: top I think sixteen back three years in a row.

751
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 3: I don't know if we'll be able to pull that

752
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 3: off with Josh Jacobs there this season, but you know,

753
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 3: with his tenth round ADP, there's a chance he could

754
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 3: flirt with weekly or flex value, maybe even PPR top

755
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 3: twenty five values.

756
00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 2: So where he's going, I'm fine with him.

757
00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 3: But you know, he's just one of them guys that

758
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:41,520
Speaker 3: you know every year, I just seemed to he just

759
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 3: seems to fall into my lap in these leagues.

760
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 1: Fair enough. Yeah, it was a very frustrating situation with

761
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 1: Cliff Kings very last year and frustrating to see him

762
00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 1: kind of go into that system where it is going

763
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 1: to be a little bit of a headache for fantasy

764
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 1: managers this season. But yeah, I agree with you. I

765
00:33:56,400 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 1: think he is going pretty pretty low. So I I'm

766
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 1: definitely tempted at his ADP. All Right, so we question

767
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 1: fourteen predict what year the Eagles will win their next

768
00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:08,279
Speaker 1: Super Bowl?

769
00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:10,359
Speaker 2: Oh?

770
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 3: Man, I mean I wish I had a few more

771
00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:13,880
Speaker 3: weeks stands to this one, and I can see a

772
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 3: little mare Jalen hurts, right, man, I think it might

773
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 3: be a while. You know, they're in a bit of

774
00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 3: a turnover period. They you know, spent a lot made

775
00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:23,839
Speaker 3: that run towards the Super Bowl and tried to keep

776
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:25,719
Speaker 3: it going for a couple of years, and it kind

777
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 3: of you know, the kind of the bill came do

778
00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:29,399
Speaker 3: this offseason, I feel to some extent, but I.

779
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:30,240
Speaker 2: Do like Howwie roseman.

780
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:32,319
Speaker 3: I think he's done a pretty nice job managing this team,

781
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 3: though he's very highly criticized. I mean to get them

782
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:37,359
Speaker 3: their first Super Bowl ring and did a nice shot

783
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 3: during that period. So I think it'll be a while,

784
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:43,319
Speaker 3: but I hope it's soon. So you know, since it's

785
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 3: just you know, it's it's not really on the line,

786
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 3: I'll just be optimistic. I'll say they went it in

787
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 3: twenty twenty two. Jalen Hurts makes a huge leap. He's

788
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:56,320
Speaker 3: at next superstar. He's at next Mahomes or Lamar Jackson

789
00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:58,839
Speaker 3: or Josh Allen. It makes the big year or two leap,

790
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 3: and he carries them all because I think, honestly, the

791
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 3: defense is a little above average on paper. The offensive line,

792
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 3: if it stays healthy, is very good. You know, maybe

793
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:10,879
Speaker 3: need one more, one more good target offensively. But if

794
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:12,840
Speaker 3: everything kind of comes together for them and Hurts is

795
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 3: the next star in this NFL, which is possible, It's

796
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:17,879
Speaker 3: a long shot, but it's possible, the Eagles could could

797
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 3: surprise and make a run.

798
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 1: You heard it here, folks. It is the Eagles twenty

799
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:25,840
Speaker 1: twenty two super Bowl winners. All right, assuming he's healthy,

800
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 1: Will Jalen hurt start at least sixteen games.

801
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:33,720
Speaker 3: If he's oh Man again, I mean, if you're betting,

802
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 3: we are, of course at at you know ESPN, Chalk

803
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:37,480
Speaker 3: and the Action Network.

804
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:38,839
Speaker 2: I would certainly take the under.

805
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:41,799
Speaker 3: With quarterbacks, it's always just too high of a number

806
00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 3: with the injury right at that position, not to mention

807
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:46,680
Speaker 3: he's an unproven product with only three NFL full NFL

808
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 3: games under his belt. They also just traded for Gardner Minshew,

809
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:51,759
Speaker 3: so they have, you know, if he's struggling, you know,

810
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:53,960
Speaker 3: you have a little more intriguing of a quarterback to

811
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:57,239
Speaker 3: plug in rather than going to Joe Flacco. So I

812
00:35:57,280 --> 00:35:58,840
Speaker 3: would say no again, if I had to bet, I

813
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:02,359
Speaker 3: would say no. But for the Eagles sake, they better

814
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 3: hope the answers yes. But I'll say this, the worst

815
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:06,400
Speaker 3: thing that can happen, I think for them is he's

816
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:09,160
Speaker 3: like up and down, he's okay, right, and they're like, well,

817
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:10,880
Speaker 3: maybe he'll make a leap in twenty two and they

818
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:13,319
Speaker 3: don't take a quarterback in the draft. You know, that

819
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:16,239
Speaker 3: could be That could be tough because you know, if

820
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:18,920
Speaker 3: he does struggle or he's okay, you figure you're picking

821
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 3: what around twelve to fifteen, you have a ton of

822
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:21,880
Speaker 3: first round picks.

823
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:23,239
Speaker 2: You may have three first round picks.

824
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:26,360
Speaker 3: If Carson Wentz stays healthy for this season, which, of

825
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:30,120
Speaker 3: course who knows with him right now? And you need

826
00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 3: to use them assets to get yourself a franchise quarterback

827
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:35,760
Speaker 3: if you don't have one. So hopefully they just hopefully

828
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:37,640
Speaker 3: we all know, you know, in a couple months whether

829
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 3: this guy's the real deal.

830
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:41,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, that Carson Wentz situation is looking a little sketchy.

831
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 1: I just saw he was put on the COVID nineteen

832
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:46,200
Speaker 1: reserve list. The Colts are having a bad week for

833
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 1: sure for their personnel. All right, speaking of Eagle signal callers,

834
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 1: was Joe Flacco ever lead? Yes or now no?

835
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 3: All due respect him, you know, in his prime he

836
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:59,480
Speaker 3: did some good things, but not an elite quarterback, certainly

837
00:36:59,480 --> 00:36:59,719
Speaker 3: not a.

838
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:03,920
Speaker 1: Hall of What percentage of the Eagles running back touches

839
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:05,720
Speaker 1: will Miles Sanders see this season?

840
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 2: That's a good question, you know.

841
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:09,320
Speaker 3: I think he was better than people realized when he

842
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 3: was out there last season, one of the most explosive

843
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 3: running backs in the NFL. I have him around fifty

844
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:18,360
Speaker 3: five percent of the carries, you know, probably I don't

845
00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 3: project running backs for any more than fifteen games this

846
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:23,880
Speaker 3: season with the extra game, just because of you know,

847
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:25,880
Speaker 3: injury rates are running back per seeing that already right,

848
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:29,280
Speaker 3: three three top what, top twenty, top twenty five running

849
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:32,759
Speaker 3: backs already out for the season, So you know, I

850
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:34,640
Speaker 3: have him in that ballpark and probably about ten to

851
00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:36,760
Speaker 3: twelve percent of the targets. You know, he as a rookie,

852
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 3: it was seventh and receiving yards is pretty good in

853
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:41,359
Speaker 3: that department. Last year kind of struggled a little bit,

854
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:43,239
Speaker 3: but that the whole team is just a mess last year,

855
00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:44,520
Speaker 3: so I'm not going to hold that against him. But

856
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 3: still had the big plays last season to finished second

857
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:48,799
Speaker 3: in yards per carry at running back.

858
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:51,000
Speaker 2: So I'm still high in him. I've drafted him a lot.

859
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:54,080
Speaker 3: He's falling to the fourth round lately, which I'll take

860
00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 3: that all day if I can get a guy like Miles

861
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:58,359
Speaker 3: Sanders in the fourth round, So that's about where I am.

862
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:00,719
Speaker 3: You know, again, about half the carries, about twelve percent

863
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:01,400
Speaker 3: of the targets.

864
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 2: If he pulls that off, he'll be a fine RB two.

865
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's definitely a guy that kind of similar to

866
00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:10,279
Speaker 1: David Montgomery that it feels like in drafts no one

867
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 1: really wants a piece of him. They're disinterested. So yeah,

868
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 1: it's one of those things that I'm not necessarily seeking

869
00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:20,040
Speaker 1: him out, but when he's falling, to me, it's definitely

870
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 1: very tumpting. All right, give me one player who you

871
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:25,680
Speaker 1: think is primed for a big fantasy season next year?

872
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:29,400
Speaker 2: Oh, good question. How about our guy AJ Dillon?

873
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 1: Right?

874
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:31,799
Speaker 3: You know he's a guy that you know tweeted out

875
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:34,359
Speaker 3: he wanted to get involved with with fantasy a few

876
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 3: days ago or a couple of weeks ago. And I'm

877
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:39,200
Speaker 3: not sure what his upside is as a pass catcher

878
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:41,040
Speaker 3: in the pros. We'll see, but you know he's a

879
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 3: hard work. He is a ton of size. He's built

880
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:47,000
Speaker 3: very similar to Derrick Henry, and who knows what he

881
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 3: can do, you know out there as a rusher.

882
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:49,720
Speaker 2: I can't wait to see him this season.

883
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:51,840
Speaker 3: And you know, Aaron Jones will be a year older,

884
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:54,239
Speaker 3: and then you'll have AJ Dillon as perhaps the lead

885
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:55,399
Speaker 3: back for that Packers team.

886
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 2: So you know, eighth Brown right now? For Dylan seems

887
00:38:58,160 --> 00:38:58,560
Speaker 2: about right.

888
00:38:58,600 --> 00:38:59,799
Speaker 3: He's a guy that could pay that off at a

889
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:02,319
Speaker 3: big way and perhaps be a breakout star in the

890
00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 3: NFL in twenty twenty two.

891
00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:06,640
Speaker 1: I love that answer. I'm very excited for Dylan this year.

892
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:11,400
Speaker 1: Are you bull or bear on the zero RB strategy

893
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:13,440
Speaker 1: as a viable strategy.

894
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:16,600
Speaker 3: I mean bowl on a viable strategy for sure, although

895
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:18,839
Speaker 3: bull makes it sound like that could go either way, right,

896
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 3: but you know it, but I'm bullish on it. Yes, yes, yeah,

897
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:25,879
Speaker 3: it's a you could definitely pay it off. I've done

898
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:29,520
Speaker 3: it before. I've won industry championships with nothing at running

899
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 3: back like uh Man was it Elijah McGuire and I

900
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:35,759
Speaker 3: was one of my top backs with Damian Williams. I

901
00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:39,480
Speaker 3: had a Big fourteen team championship roster a couple of

902
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 3: years ago in the big industry.

903
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 2: League we do every year.

904
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:46,239
Speaker 3: I won it a couple a couple of times over

905
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:48,520
Speaker 3: the past few years, and that one year I started

906
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:50,759
Speaker 3: three running backs in the championship game and two I

907
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:53,320
Speaker 3: can't remember. The third was it was Damian Wallams, Elijah

908
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 3: McGuire and someone else that was like a waiver ad.

909
00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:57,880
Speaker 3: I had no running backs on my roster that I

910
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:00,719
Speaker 3: drafted uh and I didn't And you know, I just

911
00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:04,920
Speaker 3: early in the draft. I had a tight end, receiver, receiver, receiver,

912
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:07,399
Speaker 3: something along those lines. I had that combination and there

913
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 3: was just no value at running back, so I didn't

914
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:10,879
Speaker 3: take it. And you can win that way you can

915
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:14,000
Speaker 3: if you're smart and you're aggressive and you work waivers

916
00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:16,799
Speaker 3: and if you can trade, trade, always look for, you know,

917
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 3: those guys that can kind of get you over the

918
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:20,759
Speaker 3: top and win it for you. And look, if you

919
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:23,239
Speaker 3: play fantasy and you don't like to do that, you

920
00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 3: don't like to work waivers and you're like I was

921
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 3: to check my waivers and check my team, you want

922
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:29,960
Speaker 3: to go running back heavy early and just hope they

923
00:40:30,040 --> 00:40:30,439
Speaker 3: work out.

924
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 2: If they stay healthy, you'll be competitive.

925
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 3: But if you're the opposite and you're aggressive and you're

926
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 3: always working and you're checking waivers, not taking running backs

927
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:39,799
Speaker 3: early can pay off for you. You can get safe for

928
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:41,960
Speaker 3: players at other positions, and then you can just continue

929
00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:44,280
Speaker 3: to work every single week at the running back position

930
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:46,399
Speaker 3: and by seasons end, you should be in pretty good

931
00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:49,320
Speaker 3: shape there because of the injuries and the unknown the

932
00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 3: variants of that position that can work for you. So

933
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:55,040
Speaker 3: just Ben what kind of player you are. But you know,

934
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:59,399
Speaker 3: the short answer is yes, absolutely zero RB can work

935
00:40:59,400 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 3: for you.

936
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:04,720
Speaker 1: Do you feel like it can still work in bestball formats?

937
00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 1: Because you said it's like about playing the waivers and stuff,

938
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 1: and that's obviously a huge part of it.

939
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:10,760
Speaker 2: To some extent.

940
00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:12,959
Speaker 3: I think you have to be more aggressive in best

941
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:16,160
Speaker 3: ball because you still have to get viable starting options.

942
00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:20,359
Speaker 3: Remember those things are usually deeper. Right, So we're say

943
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:22,600
Speaker 3: we're doing sixteen rounds for a normal draft, and then

944
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:24,799
Speaker 3: you're working waivers, and you have a lot better waiver wire.

945
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:27,799
Speaker 3: Best ball could be upwards of twenty twenty four rounds, right,

946
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:29,239
Speaker 3: so you have more options, and you could take more

947
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:31,719
Speaker 3: flyers at running back. I kind of hope they pan out,

948
00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:34,360
Speaker 3: but you're right, you can't, you know, if a guy's

949
00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:37,160
Speaker 3: not picked, you know, and like Tyson Williams for now

950
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:39,440
Speaker 3: we mentioned in before, you can't scoop them up.

951
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:40,879
Speaker 2: If your best ball is over, he's gone.

952
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:42,759
Speaker 3: Right, if you have Dobbins, you're done, you know, you know,

953
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:44,280
Speaker 3: you can't scoop up Williams.

954
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:45,000
Speaker 2: Get those points.

955
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:48,440
Speaker 3: So you're exactly right that it's more important to be

956
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:52,120
Speaker 3: to prioritize running back in those formats, and generally they're

957
00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:54,520
Speaker 3: set up in a tournament setting anyway, Right, you really

958
00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:56,719
Speaker 3: need to finish the top three or two, you know,

959
00:41:56,800 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 3: or first, so you could take them running backs early.

960
00:41:59,080 --> 00:42:00,400
Speaker 2: If you're running backs to get hurt.

961
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:02,920
Speaker 3: You're probably done anyway, but if they pay off, you

962
00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 3: have a really good chance to be in that top

963
00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 3: top spot.

964
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:06,480
Speaker 2: It's basically first or last.

965
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:11,600
Speaker 3: You know, Ricky, Bobby, you know, no doubt, so I'm

966
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:13,240
Speaker 3: definitely more likely to lean.

967
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:15,360
Speaker 2: On running back early in those formats.

968
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:18,680
Speaker 1: Fair enough, all right for our twenty first question. If

969
00:42:18,719 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 1: you had one cardinal rule you could tell someone just

970
00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:23,480
Speaker 1: getting into fantasy this year, what would it be?

971
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:24,680
Speaker 2: Where do I start?

972
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:26,719
Speaker 3: I did a whole article on this, a long one

973
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:27,880
Speaker 3: earlier in the off season.

974
00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:30,200
Speaker 1: Just going and go read that article for sure.

975
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:32,360
Speaker 2: Thank you, thank you. I appreciate that endorsement.

976
00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:35,799
Speaker 3: Well, first of all, okay, I'll answer your question, which is,

977
00:42:36,160 --> 00:42:38,640
Speaker 3: don't overthink it during your draft, take the best value,

978
00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:41,920
Speaker 3: don't force positions, maximize your team. But if it was

979
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 3: a little more outside the box, I would say, if

980
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 3: you get a trade offer, don't lose your.

981
00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:48,280
Speaker 2: Mind over it. Okay.

982
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:50,399
Speaker 3: You know, you know people are trying to improve their team,

983
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:52,040
Speaker 3: they're trying to shake up the league a little bit.

984
00:42:52,040 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 3: They want to make their team better. Don't get mad

985
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 3: about a trade offer.

986
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:55,360
Speaker 2: All right.

987
00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:58,520
Speaker 3: The best leagues I'm in have a ton of trade

988
00:42:58,520 --> 00:43:02,279
Speaker 3: offers and are active. People care. The worst leagues are

989
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:04,400
Speaker 3: the one and they can be bad offers sometimes, of

990
00:43:04,400 --> 00:43:06,000
Speaker 3: course they are. You always gonna have bad offers, you

991
00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 3: just not everyone's gonna agree on value. It's part of

992
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:10,200
Speaker 3: the game. And you're gonna have people that try to

993
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:12,560
Speaker 3: rip you off. It's part of the game. But the

994
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:14,319
Speaker 3: worst leagues and the ones that aren't active and they're

995
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:16,440
Speaker 3: just boring and everyone just sets their lineup where some

996
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 3: guys don't.

997
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:19,439
Speaker 2: They're just lazy about it. You know. I would take

998
00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:21,879
Speaker 2: a league with bad trade offers all day long. Orld

999
00:43:21,920 --> 00:43:23,920
Speaker 2: league like that. So don't just counter like.

1000
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:26,200
Speaker 3: An idiot or go on to message boards and lose

1001
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:29,120
Speaker 3: your mind like counter realistically tell them what you're thinking.

1002
00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:31,360
Speaker 3: Maybe this person is desperate to get a player on

1003
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:33,279
Speaker 3: your team and they end up overplaying it paying right,

1004
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:35,160
Speaker 3: so and you're never gonna get their best offer first.

1005
00:43:35,200 --> 00:43:38,000
Speaker 2: It's always an important part of it too. So that's

1006
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 2: something that drives me up a wall.

1007
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:41,759
Speaker 3: Right, I'm trying to make a league active, I'm throwing

1008
00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:44,760
Speaker 3: offers out there, and then one offer is not perfect

1009
00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 3: and people, you know, certain people lose their mind.

1010
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:49,319
Speaker 2: So that's one of the things that drives me nuts.

1011
00:43:49,320 --> 00:43:51,920
Speaker 3: So if I gave advice, I would say, be active

1012
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:54,600
Speaker 3: and don't get offended because you don't you know, you

1013
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:56,240
Speaker 3: hit the client instead of accept.

1014
00:43:56,680 --> 00:43:58,640
Speaker 1: I think that's really really good advice because in a

1015
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:00,560
Speaker 1: lot of my leagues, I feel like people are very

1016
00:44:00,640 --> 00:44:04,040
Speaker 1: dubvish and then do lose their minds over certain trade

1017
00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 1: offers in like the In reality, of course, you're valuing

1018
00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:09,479
Speaker 1: your players more than other people's players, and you're gonna

1019
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:12,280
Speaker 1: think that a first off, Why would you send a

1020
00:44:12,400 --> 00:44:15,520
Speaker 1: like very lopsided first offer in someone else's favors. So

1021
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:18,560
Speaker 1: of course, like you know, it's just about communication, and

1022
00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:20,799
Speaker 1: it doesn't do you any favors if you're just going

1023
00:44:20,840 --> 00:44:23,920
Speaker 1: to burn bridges by like chastising someone on a message

1024
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:26,080
Speaker 1: board because they sent a bad offer, because they may

1025
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 1: not even know it's a bad offer too, so give

1026
00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:30,960
Speaker 1: them the benefit of the doubt. I love that advice,

1027
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:33,920
Speaker 1: all right. That will do it for this round of

1028
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:37,319
Speaker 1: twenty one questions with our guest Mike Lay of ESPN. Mike,

1029
00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:40,319
Speaker 1: I can't thank you enough for joining me during this

1030
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:43,680
Speaker 1: insanely busy time. Please tell everyone where they can find

1031
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:45,960
Speaker 1: you this NFL season, as if they don't already know.

1032
00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:48,799
Speaker 3: I'll be grinding away working my rare end off fall

1033
00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:51,680
Speaker 3: season long. My work will be over at ESPN dot Comic.

1034
00:44:51,760 --> 00:44:53,680
Speaker 3: Sure you sign up for ESPN Plus, you cannot beat

1035
00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:56,480
Speaker 3: that product. We have so much there from a video perspective,

1036
00:44:56,480 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 3: and certainly are written content across all sports, so that's

1037
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:01,800
Speaker 3: our most my written work will be. We'll be busy

1038
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:04,120
Speaker 3: all season long at my Clay NFL on Twitter. I'll

1039
00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:06,279
Speaker 3: be tweeting away when I can as well. So really

1040
00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:08,480
Speaker 3: excited the seasons almost here. We get an extra week

1041
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:10,200
Speaker 3: this year to be a lot of work, but it's

1042
00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:11,759
Speaker 3: to be a lot of fun and we're gonna win

1043
00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:13,240
Speaker 3: some championships.

1044
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:15,359
Speaker 1: All right, guys. As a reminder, Sean Kerner and Chris

1045
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:18,319
Speaker 1: Raybond are next here on the Fantasy Flex podcast. They

1046
00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:20,440
Speaker 1: have two of their very best episodes coming out this

1047
00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:23,960
Speaker 1: week with their player prop episode and their final Fantasy rankings,

1048
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:26,840
Speaker 1: so please check those out. Thanks again for listening, Please

1049
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:29,880
Speaker 1: rate and review our show on Apple Podcasts, download us

1050
00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 1: wherever you like to listen, and we will see you

1051
00:45:31,719 --> 00:45:34,720
Speaker 1: next time on the Fantasy Flex presented by Prize Picks.

1052
00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:35,640
Speaker 1: Peace out, y'all,