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Speaker 1: Are you ready to witness football?

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Speaker 2: Fans, Welcome to the biggest tailgate party in the nation.

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Speaker 3: That Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff.

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Speaker 2: Presented by Bett make it legendary. We're setting you up

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Speaker 2: with the information you need to watch your team win.

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Speaker 4: Let's go.

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Speaker 3: We're here to break it all down.

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Speaker 2: This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented.

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Speaker 3: By Bett emg app. No, we're live from your tailgate.

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Speaker 2: Here's Brian Nook, former Penn State All American, Rich Hornberger,

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Speaker 2: and FSR betting analyst Jared Smith.

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Speaker 4: Oh, what is going on?

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Speaker 5: Happy Saturday to you, another full day of college football action.

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Speaker 6: Smell it in the air. Good morning, Rich, Good morning.

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Speaker 5: We got Rich and Jared over here. And yeah, you know, listen, man,

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Speaker 5: smells like ball.

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Speaker 4: That smells like ball.

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Speaker 5: Smells like ball today. And I'll tell you what before

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Speaker 5: we get to the previews, one particular review, My gosh,

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Speaker 5: we just have to rip the band aid off sometimes,

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Speaker 5: you Penn State reacks, What do you have to say

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Speaker 5: for yourself?

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Speaker 3: What?

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Speaker 5: What in the name of James Franklin was that last week?

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Speaker 6: Are you kidding me?

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Speaker 7: What in the name of James frank James Franklin indeed,

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Speaker 7: you know, it's a tricky thing navigating these waters because

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Speaker 7: as a alumni and a former football player with Penn

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Speaker 7: State and I I'm going to be driving up the

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Speaker 7: I five and watching Penn State take on U C

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Speaker 7: l A and the rose Ball hoping for different results.

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Speaker 4: Uh yeah, this one good at that one. I think

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Speaker 4: about this one. Yeah.

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Speaker 7: But but as a as a as a Penn stater

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Speaker 7: and uh and and watching that game heartbreaking, right, you

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Speaker 7: know you don't you don't ever want to see results

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Speaker 7: like that. However, if you can remove yourself and zoom out,

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Speaker 7: and this is hard to do, if you had any

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Speaker 7: rooting interest in this game, try to remove yourself just

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Speaker 7: from that and look at it through the purview of

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Speaker 7: just somebody who enjoys football. What a game, Holy smokes.

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Speaker 7: I mean, it had drama, the scene was set. The

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Speaker 7: comeback was awesome. I give them a lot of credit

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Speaker 7: for getting back in the game, tying that game, getting

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Speaker 7: into overtime. The first down interception was something less than awesome.

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Speaker 4: In overtime, that one hurt a little bit.

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Speaker 7: But but that was an incredible game and a gutsy

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Speaker 7: performance from a team who obviously was favored and went

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Speaker 7: down and and had battle their way back on their

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Speaker 7: home field.

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Speaker 4: Uh, it was.

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Speaker 7: It was a great effort, a poor result, and again

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Speaker 7: another unfortunate notch in the growing list of failures for

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Speaker 7: James Franklin's program to get over the hump against top

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Speaker 7: competition in in the FBS.

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Speaker 4: It is now.

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Speaker 7: I don't know if you want to call it a

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Speaker 7: self fulfilling prophecy, guys, but but there's there's a problem

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Speaker 7: here and it's got to get fixed, and it's got

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Speaker 7: to get fixed soon. Because there's a lot of money

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Speaker 7: that's funneling into college football. That's a big time program,

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Speaker 7: that's that's taking a lot of contributions from a lot

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Speaker 7: of people. There's a lot more voices in the room

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Speaker 7: than ever before, and when opinions start to sour, even

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Speaker 7: if they're unfounded opinions, it doesn't matter if it's if

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Speaker 7: it's the opinion of those who are contributing the most.

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Speaker 7: And unfortunately these opinions aren't unfounded. There is results, there are,

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Speaker 7: you know, implications being made that really don't have defense. Jared,

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Speaker 7: I don't know how you feel about the whole situation.

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Speaker 7: I did see some of your tweets following the game,

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Speaker 7: So I'll let you fill in the blanks. But I mean,

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Speaker 7: I was heartbroken for the team, but as a college

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Speaker 7: football fan, I was enthusiastically, charismatically rooting for a great game,

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Speaker 7: and that's exactly what we got.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, let's start with the good.

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Speaker 9: Dante More is the real deal, probably gonna win the Heisman.

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Speaker 9: Oregan's legit. They're young, they're very talented. They're a fun

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Speaker 9: team to watch. Dan Lanning has this team playing with

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Speaker 9: an edge. He coaches with an edge, and I don't

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Speaker 9: expect them to be a dog much for the rest

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Speaker 9: of the year.

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Speaker 8: There's your positive the negative.

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Speaker 9: I honestly believe, and I'm not trying to be hyperbole.

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Speaker 9: I know this is a radio show where we're trying

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Speaker 9: to get clicks and likes and attention. I honestly do

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Speaker 9: believe that is the worst loss in the James Franklin.

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Speaker 8: Earro I do.

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Speaker 9: I think there's two reasons for it. One obviously, expectations.

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Speaker 9: They're supposed to win the game. They're favored by more

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Speaker 9: than a field goal. You have all the intangibles, you

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Speaker 9: had the week off, you haven't played a soul, you

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Speaker 9: had an entire month to prepare for that game. But

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Speaker 9: in reality now we have to face the reality that

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Speaker 9: Jim Knowles was the highest paid coordinator in the sport.

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Speaker 9: The team had zero sacks. They hit Dante Moore three times.

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Speaker 9: I mean, that's a there's no opinion with that's that's

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Speaker 9: the fact of the game. That can't happen in a

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Speaker 9: big time college football game when your defense is supposed

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Speaker 9: to be the best unit on the field.

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Speaker 8: They weren't.

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Speaker 9: Oregon's offense, their offensive line, Dante Moore best unit on

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Speaker 9: the field in that particular instance.

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Speaker 8: Obviously Drew Hallard.

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Speaker 9: The numbers are just five and a half yards per

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Speaker 9: attempt looked uncomfortable all night. The offense gained thirty eight

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Speaker 9: percent of available yards, the average in a college football

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Speaker 9: games in the mid fifties. Usually usually you gain, maybe

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Speaker 9: on a bad night, right on an average night, fifty

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Speaker 9: percent of the available yards you're gaining. For context, that's

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Speaker 9: what Georgia gained against Alabama in their loss last week,

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Speaker 9: fifty percent of available yards. Penn State gained thirty eight percent.

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Speaker 9: Where is the assertiveness, the aggression. It didn't happen until

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Speaker 9: they're down two scores in the fourth quarter. Then they

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Speaker 9: started taking shots down the field. Oh guess what, then

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Speaker 9: the offense wakes up. That needs to be the mindset

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Speaker 9: from the jump, we are better offensively against your defense.

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Speaker 9: We are taking shots down the field. If it's not

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Speaker 9: the mindset from the jump, that starts at the top

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Speaker 9: of right the tip of the spear the head coach

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Speaker 9: and filters down. The mindset is let's just run the

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Speaker 9: ball and hope we can get by in this game.

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Speaker 9: That was the that was the game plan. Now, maybe

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Speaker 9: they don't trust Drewaler enough to go out there and

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Speaker 9: execute the game plan, and then when desperation seeps in,

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Speaker 9: then they have to Maybe they just don't trust Drew

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Speaker 9: enough to go out there and sling it from the jump.

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Speaker 9: Maybe if that's the case, then you've got the wrong

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Speaker 9: kid at quarterback.

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Speaker 8: Maybe they didn't have a good game plan. I don't know.

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Speaker 9: I'm not in the room, but I do know when

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Speaker 9: all of a sudden, they're down two scores in the

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Speaker 9: fourth quarter and they're taking shots down the field when

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Speaker 9: everyone knows they're gonna be taking shots down the field,

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Speaker 9: and they're completing them and scoring points. I'm thinking to myself,

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Speaker 9: why wasn't this the start of the game. Why warrant

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Speaker 9: these games. Why weren't these shot plays in the opening

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Speaker 9: script of the game. I just I have no words

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Speaker 9: for it other than the worst loss in the James

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Speaker 9: Franklin era. Because they can't seem to figure out how

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Speaker 9: to win these games. And if they can't win this game,

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Speaker 9: you don't deserve to be in any big game for

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Speaker 9: the rest of the season. Now, maybe they make the

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Speaker 9: playoff off and they get back to the Final four,

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Speaker 9: but the same thing is going to happen when they

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Speaker 9: actually face a team worth their salt, like Oregon is.

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Speaker 9: And that's that's just the that's the truth of it

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Speaker 9: to me.

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Speaker 6: I do have a question.

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Speaker 5: You know, our good friend d DJ Khalid, right what

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Speaker 5: he said another one? Another one that was he talking

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Speaker 5: about like another hit song you know that's as pop

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Speaker 5: or was he talking about another Penn State disappointment?

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Speaker 6: I have legitimate questions about it.

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Speaker 4: That's not a legitimate question at all. It could be.

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Speaker 6: It really could be.

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Speaker 5: So you know, you hear him like matched up with

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Speaker 5: I don't know, like a hot artist like Rianna. They

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Speaker 5: come out with a new song and another one. He's

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Speaker 5: really talking about Penn State the whole time.

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Speaker 6: I mean, we need to investigate this.

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Speaker 5: It might be the case, but I do, like you said,

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Speaker 5: one key phrase and that whole spiel there, Jared was

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Speaker 5: sling it and uh, you know that's the deal with

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Speaker 5: with Drew Aller over here. It's a weird mixture where listen,

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Speaker 5: I'll be glass half full for a second.

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Speaker 6: The season isn't lost.

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Speaker 5: Maybe they can do their their Ohio State impression, right,

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Speaker 5: Ohio State had some other.

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Speaker 6: Well they will. They should make it. They should be

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Speaker 6: in there.

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Speaker 4: They should.

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Speaker 5: But like that's the thing, like Ohio State lost as

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Speaker 5: a three touchdown favorite at home to Michigan again, that

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Speaker 5: was as embarrassing as it gets. And this is really

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Speaker 5: embarrassing for Penn State to lose again another one. But

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Speaker 5: it's not all done. It's not all lost. The season

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Speaker 5: is still ongoing for them. But that's the thing, getting

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Speaker 5: back to the sling it thing. Man, When you are

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Speaker 5: so careful with Drew Aller to the point where Penn

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Speaker 5: State gained sixty nine yards in the entire first half,

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Speaker 5: that's obnoxious. And it reminded me of there's a great

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Speaker 5: SoundBite of Tom Brady. It's from NFL Networks America's game.

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Speaker 5: So this was the first Super Bowl. The Patriots won

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Speaker 5: Super Bowl thirty six. Remember it was tied seventeen to

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Speaker 5: seventeen against the Rams. Patriots are huge underdogs and all

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Speaker 5: of a sudden they have this aggressive last drive to

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Speaker 5: set up a game winning field goal by Adam Vinteri.

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Speaker 5: I totally agreed with John Madden during that game. He's like, whoa,

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Speaker 5: what were they doing over? They're throwing it in their

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Speaker 5: own territory is way too risky, And the next thing

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Speaker 5: you know, they're Super Bowl champs. But this is Tom

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Speaker 5: Brady talking about a conversation he had on the sidelines

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Speaker 5: before that final drive, and I think it applies to

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Speaker 5: Drew Aller.

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Speaker 6: Check this out.

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Speaker 10: It's seventeen seventeen. Well, my first thing is I go

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Speaker 10: up to Charlie and I say what are we doing?

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Speaker 10: And he says we're going. So I said, all right,

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Speaker 10: what's the first play? And Charlie says to me, is

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Speaker 10: I'm sure Bill's sending his here. He'd better take care

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Speaker 10: of that ball. So Charlie yells at me.

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Speaker 8: He says, hey, take care of that ball.

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Speaker 10: And Drew was kind of standing next to me and

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Speaker 10: he kind of just shuffling in front of that and

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Speaker 10: he says, Dad, go out there and slim right, and that's.

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Speaker 5: What he did and listen like you know, Drew Owler,

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Speaker 5: Tom Brady, But the concept remains the same. I think

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Speaker 5: Drew Aller can feel like don't mess up. He can

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Speaker 5: feel the coaching staff. He can just feel this like hesitancy,

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Speaker 5: this like freaked out nature of like don't make a mistake.

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Speaker 5: That's how he's playing. He was way too careful with him.

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Speaker 5: He's way too careful in the first half. And like

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Speaker 5: you guys said, when they opened it up, touchdown, touchdown,

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Speaker 5: boom boom, and then the sad thing in double overtime,

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Speaker 5: it's a hideous interception and the game is lost. So

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Speaker 5: I would rather air on the side of aggression. Yeah,

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Speaker 5: he's gonna make some mistakes, but being too careful, which

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Speaker 5: is what they are, that's a mistake too, And I

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Speaker 5: would rather that he just goes out there and slings it.

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Speaker 6: He's got real ability.

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Speaker 5: He's playing way too careful right now, and they're not

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Speaker 5: gonna go anywhere if that's the approach with him.

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Speaker 7: I complete completely agree. I completely agree. When you play scared,

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Speaker 7: you play inside your own head. When when you play

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Speaker 7: cautious you're you're overthinking.

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Speaker 4: When you play free and loose.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, you'll make mistakes, but at least you're gonna make

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Speaker 7: them going a million miles an hour. I feel like

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Speaker 7: Drew Aller is bridled by the restrictions placed on him.

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Speaker 7: I feel like we haven't seen an unrestricted Drew Aller

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Speaker 7: play football.

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Speaker 4: At the collegiate level yet.

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Speaker 7: Uh And and unfortunately, when they do let him open

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Speaker 7: the can a little bit, and and he starts to

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Speaker 7: sling it, so to speak, it goes better for him

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Speaker 7: in moments, But then he's gonna make a bonehead player

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Speaker 7: or two.

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Speaker 4: But you have to have that blood letting at some point.

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Speaker 7: You have to let him make those mistakes so he

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Speaker 7: doesn't make him anymore.

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Speaker 4: And you have to let that happen.

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Speaker 7: In games that I don't want to say don't matter,

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Speaker 7: but in games where you can sharpen your claws a

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Speaker 7: little bit. When you have a you know, a score

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Speaker 7: or two lead against Purdue or against Maryland or against

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Speaker 7: I don't know, Temple or one of these cupcakes you

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Speaker 7: know that they warmed up with for four weeks before

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Speaker 7: they took on the Oregon Ducks, you know, let him

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Speaker 7: sling it so to speak against one of those teams.

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Speaker 4: This way, you get used to that Drew Aller.

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Speaker 7: He gets used to that Drew Aller because when when

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Speaker 7: you put look, I've always been a fan of the

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Speaker 7: of the of the thought process from a coaching standpoint, Hey,

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Speaker 7: I want to see your one hundred percent effort, and

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Speaker 7: if I need to pull back on the reins, that's

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Speaker 7: what I'll do.

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Speaker 4: That's coaches job.

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Speaker 7: But you go out there and you play to your personality,

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Speaker 7: and I'll let you know if we need to back

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Speaker 7: off that personality a little bit. Doesn't it feel like

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Speaker 7: Drew Aller is trying to be somebody else when he's

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Speaker 7: on the field. Doesn't it feel like it feels like

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Speaker 7: he's trying to do his best, you know, impression of

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Speaker 7: what he thinks the coaches think the Penn State quarterbacks

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Speaker 7: supposed to look like in this offense instead of playing

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Speaker 7: like Drew Aller.

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Speaker 4: I don't even know who that quarterback is.

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Speaker 7: I don't even know who Drew Aller is as a

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Speaker 7: quarterback yet, because it seems like he's doing a bad

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Speaker 7: impression of what Penn State expects a quarterbacks supposed to

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Speaker 7: look like in this offense. If they are going to

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Speaker 7: win a national championship. It's gonna because they have a

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Speaker 7: quarterback playing free, playing within his personality and playing like

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Speaker 7: he knows he's going to win. You heard the way

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Speaker 7: Drew Bledsoe talk to Tom Brady. He talked to him like, hey, Tom,

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Speaker 7: I trust you. I want you to trust yourself. Screw

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Speaker 7: what Bill Belichick said, Screw what Charlie Weiss repeated to

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Speaker 7: you from the headset. Go out there and play to

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Speaker 7: your personality and win this you know what football game.

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Speaker 7: And he went out there and he won that football game.

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Speaker 9: Here's the problem, though, he might not be good enough

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Speaker 9: like like that at this point. We just have to

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Speaker 9: believe what we see with our eyes, which is he

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Speaker 9: just might not be talented enough to overcome some of.

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Speaker 8: These demons at this stage, I mean may.

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Speaker 9: And again, he's a young kid, and I'm sure he's

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Speaker 9: gonna improve, and you hope that he does. But we

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Speaker 9: have to trust what we are seeing on the field,

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Speaker 9: and they are not allowing him to reach that full

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Speaker 9: potential based off of the play calling, based off of

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Speaker 9: the cuteness that they're approaching these big games. It's very

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Speaker 9: it's almost like we're just hoping that we can pop

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Speaker 9: a couple explosives in the run game and keep this

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Speaker 9: lead long enough. We are deal and that and to

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Speaker 9: me and listen, the dural criticism I think is fair.

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Speaker 9: But he didn't play well. You paid Jim knows a

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Speaker 9: lot of money and they didn't get one sack in

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Speaker 9: the game, and they hit Dante more three times like

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Speaker 9: and may and and maybe it goes back to what

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Speaker 9: I said at the top, where you credit Oregon for

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Speaker 9: playing a really clean football game. But man, oh man,

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Speaker 9: I need to see more. I need to see them

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Speaker 9: play with a lot more of that unbridled aggression and

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Speaker 9: you're just not seeing it right now. And maybe they

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Speaker 9: just don't trust them enough because they're with them every

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Speaker 9: day in practice. I'm sure there was a point in

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Speaker 9: practice where they're like, all right, we're gonna roulet.

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Speaker 8: A rip right now, and then Drew does whatever he.

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Speaker 9: Does and they're like, okay, maybe we can't do that.

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Speaker 9: Like that obviously isn't going to work. So we need

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Speaker 9: to go to this secondary game plan, which is run

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Speaker 9: ron ron cut se QUTESI you know, beat around the

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Speaker 9: bush and just hope we can kind of skirt our

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Speaker 9: way through these games. I mean they haven't looked good

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Speaker 9: in the first three games. Guys like you stack up

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Speaker 9: the numbers of what Penn State was in those first

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Speaker 9: three games against the Cupcakes, against the bad FIU and

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Speaker 9: Villanova didn't cover in any of them. The offense looked

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Speaker 9: very pedestrian, and that carried over to the Oregon game.

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Speaker 9: You thought maybe they were kind of playing possum, but no,

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Speaker 9: they weren't.

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Speaker 8: I think this is what they are at this point.

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Speaker 9: I think at some point you just have to try

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Speaker 9: lost what you are seeing on tape, which is Drew

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Speaker 9: Aller folds in these big moments and the defense is

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Speaker 9: gonna have to bail him out. And if they're not

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Speaker 9: running it effectively, they are not going to be able

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Speaker 9: to win football games at the highest level. So guess

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Speaker 9: what when you go to Ohio State and I think

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Speaker 9: three weeks, good luck with that defense?

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Speaker 8: Are you kidding me? How many points is Pence stake?

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Speaker 8: I'll take the under?

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Speaker 9: And how many points Bence State scores in that game

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Speaker 9: in Columbus.

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Speaker 5: Well, I think a confidence is a real thing, and

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Speaker 5: you can see when a player has it, and man,

337
00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:32,200
Speaker 5: you can see when a player doesn't. And right now,

338
00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:36,320
Speaker 5: Drew Aller has no confidence. And you could take other

339
00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:39,320
Speaker 5: players in college in the NFL, look at Baker Mayfield,

340
00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:42,639
Speaker 5: look at Baker Mayfield's career, and you could just tell

341
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Speaker 5: how confident he is right now compared to other stages

342
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Speaker 5: of his career, and it's helping his play tenfold, right.

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Speaker 5: And that's where I see with with Drew Aller.

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Speaker 6: He has real ability.

345
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Speaker 5: There's a reason why he's talked about as being maybe

346
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Speaker 5: the number one overall pick now is you know, no shots,

347
00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:06,479
Speaker 5: it's dwindling now, but he's still a first round caliber quarterback. Like,

348
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Speaker 5: I know, we're down in the dumps with him right

349
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Speaker 5: now and deservedly so. But imagine if the Rams got

350
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Speaker 5: their hands on Drue Aller. Are we all of a

351
00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,040
Speaker 5: sudden like man that's a failed draft pick, or are

352
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Speaker 5: we like, well, you know, Sean McVay, the guy's got

353
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Speaker 5: real ability. Let's not close the door on this guy

354
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Speaker 5: having a legitimate pro career, right Like, That's where I'm

355
00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:29,680
Speaker 5: at with him, where if he starts to have some success,

356
00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:33,200
Speaker 5: have some production, have some wins, have confidence, you could

357
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Speaker 5: see a completely different guy.

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Speaker 6: And that's what I saw last year with Ohio State.

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Speaker 6: We all did.

360
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Speaker 5: I'm just looking at these numbers. That embarrassing loss at

361
00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:45,200
Speaker 5: home to Michigan. It was thirteen to ten. They gained

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00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:48,880
Speaker 5: two hundred and fifty two yards against Michigan. And then

363
00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:50,400
Speaker 5: all of a sudden, it goes back to the Tom

364
00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:52,520
Speaker 5: Brady SoundBite. They went out there and they.

365
00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:53,480
Speaker 6: Were slinging it.

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Speaker 5: They're just like, all right, screw this, We're going for broke.

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00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:00,919
Speaker 5: And they hung forty two on ten to see forty

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00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:03,280
Speaker 5: one on Oregon. The number one team of the country

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00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:07,080
Speaker 5: outscored Texas beat my Irish. They scored thirty four in

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Speaker 5: that game. It's just like points points, points point twenty.

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00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:12,439
Speaker 5: It was points galore from that stage where they just

372
00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:15,920
Speaker 5: said screw this, the hell with everything, and they went

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Speaker 5: and they played like that. That's exactly what Penn State

374
00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:21,560
Speaker 5: needs to do. But man, they come out and it's

375
00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:24,800
Speaker 5: just deer in headlights in these big stage games like that.

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Speaker 5: But hey, we move forward, and I feel bad for

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Speaker 5: the Bruins today.

378
00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:32,560
Speaker 8: There that's the part about this.

379
00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:35,119
Speaker 9: You have to bury your opinion and I had to

380
00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:36,800
Speaker 9: do it this week, and you just you have to.

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00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:38,960
Speaker 8: It's a great spot to bet Penn State, it really is.

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00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,360
Speaker 9: And I know we're just We're absolutely, you know, crapping

383
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:43,360
Speaker 9: all over them all morning, but it really.

384
00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:45,840
Speaker 8: Is a good spot to beat them. It is.

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00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:49,719
Speaker 5: We've got Rich Hornberger, Penn State All American, Jared Smith

386
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:51,080
Speaker 5: FSR betting analyst.

387
00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:54,040
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Speaker 5: Make it legendary, all right? Coming up next, this team

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Speaker 5: was outstanding last week, but not so outstanding last year.

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Speaker 5: In the same spot we'll explain it is Fox Sports

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Speaker 2: Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in

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Speaker 2: listen live. Hey, We're Cavino.

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Speaker 11: And Rich Fox Sports Radio every day five to seven

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Speaker 11: pm Eastern. But here's the thing we never have enough

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Speaker 5: And that's why we have a brand new podcast called

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Speaker 5: because this guy is over promising things we never have

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Speaker 5: I have time for.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you blubber list jam in me.

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Speaker 11: Well you know what it's called over promise. You should

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Speaker 5: Well, it's a Covino and Rich after show and we

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Speaker 5: bet MGM. All right, we got the number sixteen Vanderbilt

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00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:16,239
Speaker 5: commodores at number ten Alabama. It's funny. I started saying that,

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Speaker 5: and I'm like, don't forget the nickname. Don't forget Vanderbil

437
00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:22,000
Speaker 5: And that was there. You know, like my rule of thumb.

438
00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:26,200
Speaker 5: If you can't name the nickname, chances are that program

439
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:26,720
Speaker 5: is trash.

440
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 9: Right, But hey, that is the number one rule of

441
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:33,199
Speaker 9: college football.

442
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:37,240
Speaker 5: Peap pretty much, you're right, chances are. You know, they've

443
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 5: experienced some rough times over the years. But Vanderbilt, how

444
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 5: about this five and zero, number sixteen in the country,

445
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:48,200
Speaker 5: and they're getting eleven and a half on the road

446
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 5: against Bama. Now, Bama was unbelievable. In the first half,

447
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:55,640
Speaker 5: in particular against Georgia, they carved them up. Ty Simpson

448
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:59,160
Speaker 5: looked fantastic. They didn't score any points in the second half.

449
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 5: Georgia got closed, but Bama gets the win. They snap

450
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:07,400
Speaker 5: the thirty three game home winning streak for Georgia. Georgia

451
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:11,439
Speaker 5: is now one in seven under Kirby Smart against Alabama,

452
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 5: It's unreal. That's a very emotional win for Alabama. Sometimes

453
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 5: we see these letdown spots. Hard to see a complete

454
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 5: letdown after Vanderbilt beat Alabama. Last year, Alabama was the

455
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 5: number one team in the country. Vandy stunned them. So

456
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 5: that's the one thing in this game. There's no sneaking

457
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:32,400
Speaker 5: up for Vanderbilt. Like normally, if this is a typical

458
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:35,440
Speaker 5: Vanderbilt team and they're like two in three or whatever,

459
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:39,680
Speaker 5: and Alabama's coming off this emotional win, like yeah, look out,

460
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 5: you're getting double digits, maybe Vandy is the side, But

461
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:45,680
Speaker 5: with last year in mind, it's a completely different ballgame here.

462
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 7: Yeah, Vanderbilt preseason four and a half win total, they've

463
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 7: already bested that on the year. They're four and one

464
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,119
Speaker 7: against the spread. So it just goes to show you

465
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:59,439
Speaker 7: that people are counting them out or at least betting

466
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:03,159
Speaker 7: against him. And you can't bet against Diego Pavia, Who's

467
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 7: more than just a good story in college football. He's

468
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 7: like a legitimate quarterback, he really is.

469
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:11,240
Speaker 4: He's playing well.

470
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:15,439
Speaker 7: They've got a duo in the offensive backfield who's playing

471
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:20,159
Speaker 7: well with Alexander and Young. They have scored eighteen touchdowns

472
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:22,520
Speaker 7: on the ground so far this season, you know, so

473
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,240
Speaker 7: this is a feature of the offense. They got a

474
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:32,399
Speaker 7: good tight end Stowers. Look, this is a real Vanderbilt team.

475
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:36,320
Speaker 7: And I say all that to say, but this is Bama.

476
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 7: And this is Bama who just beat Georgia between the

477
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 7: hedges and all the pomp and circumstance with that matchup.

478
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 4: To your point, Brian, is it a spot for a letdown?

479
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 7: Yes, certainly after an emotional victory, and certainly after I

480
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 7: think there were a lot of people maybe within the program,

481
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:59,879
Speaker 7: outside the program certainly, who are talking about Kiln the

482
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 7: and the direction of this program, and what if they

483
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:07,159
Speaker 7: do lose to Georgia, and and and but but but

484
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,119
Speaker 7: they end up winning that game, and it feels like

485
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:13,439
Speaker 7: a completely different season now after opening the season with

486
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:16,359
Speaker 7: a loss to Florida state where they were big favorites.

487
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,479
Speaker 4: So that's kind of the tail of the tape between

488
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:20,400
Speaker 4: these two teams.

489
00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:24,919
Speaker 7: The Commodores look good all over the paper, right, you know,

490
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:28,760
Speaker 7: you can't really find too much negative to say about

491
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:32,440
Speaker 7: the start to their season, But the level of opponent

492
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 7: they're about to play against today, it suggests to you

493
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 7: that this could be a lopsided outcome.

494
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:39,400
Speaker 4: Mm. Yeah.

495
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 9: The Vandy's getting a lot of love in the market.

496
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:43,959
Speaker 9: They're very popular underdog this week. That usually is your

497
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 9: first red flag that you probably shouldn't be betting on

498
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 9: a team. Call them right, the trendy dog. Those dogs

499
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:53,959
Speaker 9: typically have flees. Based on my experience in this gambling space,

500
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 9: Bama's just a check mark across the board in all

501
00:25:57,280 --> 00:25:59,360
Speaker 9: the areas you want them to be checked in.

502
00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 8: How about this stat, guys.

503
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:03,960
Speaker 9: One of three teams in the country that hasn't turned

504
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:05,879
Speaker 9: it over this year. I bet you can't name the

505
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 9: other two. I struggled with this one.

506
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:08,960
Speaker 8: Go ahead and guess.

507
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 7: The other two besides Bama Bama that hasn't turned it

508
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:13,120
Speaker 7: over this year.

509
00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:17,479
Speaker 9: You're never gonna give you a you know, Yan and Temple.

510
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 8: How about that.

511
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:24,359
Speaker 9: Never never guess that, but that was a big talking

512
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,200
Speaker 9: point in the offseason with Ryan Grubb, and that's why

513
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 9: they love Ty Simpson. He is incredibly efficient and protective

514
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 9: of the football. Last year in this game they lost

515
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:38,680
Speaker 9: the turnover march in two to oh So again that's

516
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:40,880
Speaker 9: kind of the key here and tough to predict turnovers.

517
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,159
Speaker 9: But obviously Bama has done a really good job keeping

518
00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 9: hold of the football this year. This ain't your older

519
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 9: brothers bandy offense people, It's not. They hunt explosives now.

520
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 9: In prior years they've been a little bit more quarterback

521
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:57,120
Speaker 9: power four or five yards in a cloud of dust

522
00:26:57,160 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 9: type of offense. They still do that. That's their critic.

523
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:03,199
Speaker 9: DNA third and short pave is going to be on

524
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:05,879
Speaker 9: a QB power on a jet suite probably in some capacity.

525
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 9: But now what they've added to their game is the

526
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:14,199
Speaker 9: explosive ability, which makes this a very different offense to

527
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:17,959
Speaker 9: prepare for. I think their biggest concern for Bama right

528
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:21,199
Speaker 9: now is the defense. Honestly, Georgia left a lot of

529
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 9: meat on the bone I told you about. They only

530
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 9: gained about fifty percent of available yards. That's below average.

531
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 9: Georgia could have scored a lot more points in that

532
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:30,439
Speaker 9: game last week. You had the fourth down stop, you

533
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:32,960
Speaker 9: had a couple explosives that they missed. And oh, by

534
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:36,119
Speaker 9: the way, James Smith nose tackle for Bama out in

535
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:38,960
Speaker 9: this game ejected for targeting in the second half, so

536
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:40,679
Speaker 9: we will miss the first half.

537
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:41,160
Speaker 8: Of this game.

538
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 9: In addition, Kway Russo, we talked about him on last

539
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:46,680
Speaker 9: week's show, one of the best pass rushers I think

540
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:49,640
Speaker 9: in the country. Definitely on this Bama team. Injured his foot,

541
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:54,479
Speaker 9: need surgery out indefinitely. It feels like Bama's defense is

542
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 9: kind of this weird sphere that keeps spinning and you

543
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:00,720
Speaker 9: just don't know what axis it's on. They have a

544
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:04,160
Speaker 9: very complicated zone scheme. Here's the problem I see when

545
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 9: you play a zone coverage scheme against Vandy, they spam

546
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 9: the RPO game and they will eventually get you out

547
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 9: of that zone scheme. And when they do and get

548
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:13,399
Speaker 9: you in the man to man, that's when the explosives

549
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 9: come in. So it's weird we're talking about this game

550
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 9: like Vandy's on the front foot. I think Bama is

551
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:21,640
Speaker 9: the better team. I think the offense is significantly better

552
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:23,920
Speaker 9: than Bandy's defense. I think Ty Simpson's got a big

553
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 9: chance to win the Heisman Trophy this year. I love

554
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,680
Speaker 9: the receivers for Bama. Hort and Bernard and Williams are elite.

555
00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 9: I think Bama's gonna put up their points. But I

556
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 9: think Vandy's gonna be in this game. I would imagine,

557
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,840
Speaker 9: I would imagine Bama covers because everyone's betting Vandy and

558
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 9: that's usually how it goes. But I would not be

559
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 9: shocked if the Commodores are sniffing this one late.

560
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 5: One thing that goes against Vandy that I don't like

561
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 5: in this particular matchup. They've given up the most passing

562
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 5: touchdowns in the SEC. They've given up nine passing touchdowns already.

563
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 5: And Rich, you're talking about the competition, right, It's not

564
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 5: the stiffest of competition over there in the land, right.

565
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:07,240
Speaker 5: It is a huge step up to face Ty Simpson

566
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 5: in the Crimson Tide. Yeah, because Charleston Southern VA Tech

567
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 5: South Carolina without Leonoris Sellers for most of that game

568
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 5: and Georgia State.

569
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 6: That's not Ty Simpson and Bama, that's for sure.

570
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 5: But the one thing though, on the other side, and

571
00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 5: that's why this is an intriguing matchup, is Kaylin de

572
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 5: Boor as a double digit favorite. Yikes. It's not quite

573
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 5: James Franklin against top ten teams, but it's approaching it.

574
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 5: As a double digit favorite. They have laid numerous eggs

575
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 5: and lost outright, including one game last year to Vanderbilt.

576
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 5: And so you have to see when we were talking

577
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 5: about Bama, like, is Bama back? Like, think about what

578
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 5: the standard for Bama is. And they've looked good the

579
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 5: last couple of weeks. Ever since the Florida State debacle,

580
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 5: Bama has been good, and especially in that first half

581
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 5: against Georgia last week. But beat like back back, that

582
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 5: is such a high bar, and I think there's a

583
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 5: lot of room for Kaylin de Boor to improve, for

584
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 5: them to get close to that level where they once were.

585
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 7: Yeah, classic letdown spot tier point Brian, And we've seen

586
00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 7: this before, and we've seen this before after a big

587
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 7: emotional win against Georgia, because that's exactly the spot they

588
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 7: face Vandy last year right after a big win against Georgia,

589
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 7: they had the letdown against Vanderbilt.

590
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 4: So this sets up similarly.

591
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 7: However, when you do have that to look back on

592
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 7: in such recent history, you would assume a good coach

593
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 7: like Kaylen Debor is gonna be talking to his team,

594
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 7: turning on that film and saying, hey, this is I mean,

595
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 7: we just cannot let history repeat itself.

596
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 4: Right.

597
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 7: Here's the problem with BEMA when you say are they

598
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 7: all the way back? Defensively, definitely not? And run game wise, yeah,

599
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 7: definitely not. Their top rusher Kevin Riley has one hundred

600
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 7: fIF the yards. Jam Miller's been banged up. This run

601
00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 7: game is not what Bama not what Crimson Tide fans

602
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:09,800
Speaker 7: are used to seeing. What are you used to seeing

603
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 7: out of Alabama? Strong run game, great defense, a star

604
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 7: studded defense at all three levels, and a quarterback who's

605
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 7: good enough to manage the offense. This is a complete reversal.

606
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 7: This is a defense that's good enough to keep you

607
00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 7: in games. They will allow points in scoring, There's no

608
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:32,880
Speaker 7: question about it. So you're gonna have to score points

609
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 7: and an offense that relies on quarterback play and talented receivers.

610
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 7: You have two really good standout receivers, but you have

611
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 7: two running backs who have been trying their hardest to

612
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 7: get this run game going and to no avail. So

613
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 7: very different complexion, as the DNA is shifting from the

614
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 7: Saban years to the Kaitlin de Boor years in Alabama.

615
00:31:57,640 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 8: Very well said.

616
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:02,600
Speaker 9: Literally exactly my notes here go Alabama this year outside

617
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 9: the top one hundred third down defense points, pro opportunity allowed,

618
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 9: and explosiveness.

619
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 8: Kane Wamack wants the quarterback to not trust his eyes.

620
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 9: This creates impact plays, but they also are very creacible

621
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:16,560
Speaker 9: in the run game. Georgia had five explosive runs in

622
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 9: the game last Saturday. Diego pave Again we mentioned he's

623
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 9: an RPO merchant that will force Alabama to shift their scheme.

624
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 9: He's very experienced, will not be rattled on the road.

625
00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 8: This will be his forty sixth.

626
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:35,360
Speaker 9: College start today nineteenth at Vandy. Again, this is a

627
00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:38,239
Speaker 9: very different Vandy offense than we're used to. And then

628
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 9: on the flip side of that, Rich, I.

629
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:41,960
Speaker 8: Love this ty Simpson kid.

630
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 9: Big step forward last week, winning a big game on

631
00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 9: the road in the sec right, Mike the first line

632
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 9: of my notes on him this week. That's one of

633
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 9: those starts that earns you a helmet sticker. I mean

634
00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 9: it was shredding the ball into tight windows. Sunday throws

635
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:01,120
Speaker 9: on money downs, go look at the third down numbers

636
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 9: for Alabama last week they were off the charts, their

637
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:07,720
Speaker 9: top fifteen in available yards, gaining sixty three percent of

638
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 9: available yards.

639
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 8: That is an elite, elite rate.

640
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:12,959
Speaker 9: The thing I'm most impressed with Simpson right now his

641
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 9: ability to identify what he's seeing at the line of

642
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:19,480
Speaker 9: scrimmage and decisively exploiting the weakness of the defense. If

643
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 9: he can do it on the road at Georgia, he

644
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 9: can do it against anybody, period, end of story. The

645
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 9: ball was jumping out of his hands last week, two

646
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 9: point seven time to throw rate with a nine point

647
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 9: zero a dot. What does that mean? Quick out of

648
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 9: his hand, but significantly strong average depth of target.

649
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 8: Not just check down, Charlie.

650
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 9: Usually when we see a two and a half two

651
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 9: point six second time per throw rate, the average depth

652
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 9: of target's like six yards because it's just one, two,

653
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:48,479
Speaker 9: three boom balls out, but it's quick. He was one

654
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 9: to three boom balls out, boom into a tight window

655
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 9: ten yards down the field like it was really impressive.

656
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 9: And again the receivers for Bama, this is a very

657
00:33:57,520 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 9: explosive group.

658
00:33:58,400 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 8: They have three.

659
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 9: Guys that can all do different things. Jeremy Bernard's a

660
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:04,720
Speaker 9: stud six foot two transfer. Right, they brought him over

661
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:06,840
Speaker 9: from Washington. He was one of the guys that the

662
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:09,359
Speaker 9: board brought. They line him up all over the field.

663
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 9: He'll line up in the backfield today and he'll run

664
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:12,840
Speaker 9: a route on the outside.

665
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 8: They've got the alpha, Isaiah.

666
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:17,440
Speaker 9: Horton six foot four x receiver and Ryan Williams, why

667
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 9: I think, is the best slot guy in the country.

668
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:22,919
Speaker 9: So there's no weakness on this Bama offense. You want

669
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 9: to say, maybe they're a little gett a bullet tackle

670
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 9: I can I can run with that, But I think

671
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:29,920
Speaker 9: the running game is going to improve too. And this

672
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,680
Speaker 9: is a this is a runnable defense, right, Vandy's got

673
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:35,240
Speaker 9: good numbers against the run, but it's against Charleston Southern,

674
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:38,359
Speaker 9: VOTEC South Carolina without Lenora Sellers for most of the game,

675
00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:40,919
Speaker 9: Georgia State, and Utah State. They've also had a big

676
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 9: lead in every game, so nobody's running it on them.

677
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:47,480
Speaker 9: I'm curious to see how they handle a quarterback receiver

678
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:51,239
Speaker 9: trio with a guy like Jan Miller, who you would

679
00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:52,320
Speaker 9: hope is a weak healthier.

680
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:54,880
Speaker 8: So this is a this is a test for Vandy today.

681
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 9: A lot of people think Vandy is up to this

682
00:34:57,080 --> 00:34:58,960
Speaker 9: challenge based on what the betting market's telling me.

683
00:34:59,120 --> 00:34:59,880
Speaker 8: I am not social.

684
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 6: Yeah, that's the funny thing. I'll bring it back to Bama.

685
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:06,720
Speaker 5: But just in terms of quarterbacks, real fast, like playing

686
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:09,320
Speaker 5: with confidence. What we were talking about with Drew Aller before.

687
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:13,000
Speaker 5: Look at Ty Simpson. Look at Ty Simpson last week

688
00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:15,879
Speaker 5: against Georgia compared to the first game against Florida State,

689
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:18,879
Speaker 5: night and day. Not even close to the same guy.

690
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 5: But he's playing confidently and that makes all the difference

691
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:24,239
Speaker 5: in the world. You could go back just a couple

692
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:27,319
Speaker 5: of nights ago. Think about Mac Jones now with the

693
00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:29,200
Speaker 5: forty nine ers, is the backup quarterback.

694
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 6: You see him getting into his bag.

695
00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:32,360
Speaker 4: You see him do the.

696
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:36,479
Speaker 5: Little shoulder struggle thing like that's like, where's the Mac.

697
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 5: We haven't seen this with the Jags or the Patriots.

698
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,880
Speaker 5: All of a sudden, he's a confident player and he

699
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:43,839
Speaker 5: looks completely different. So if you're a Penn State fan,

700
00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:45,840
Speaker 5: you got to see that from Drew Aller because he

701
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 5: has real ability. But you bring it back, bring it

702
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 5: back to Listen, we're talking about confident quarterbacks.

703
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 6: Make sure bring it back to Alabama.

704
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:58,239
Speaker 5: Return Hey, at least the path for an upset or

705
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:02,560
Speaker 5: at least the cover is a shaky iffy Bama defense,

706
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 5: right and that's what they are right now. They are

707
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:08,800
Speaker 5: not what they used to be. They can be had,

708
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:12,800
Speaker 5: and they have been had during this season. Diego Pavia,

709
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 5: if he starts to make plays and he's completely capable

710
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 5: of doing that, that electrifies the whole team. All of

711
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:24,760
Speaker 5: a sudden, Vanderbilt is playing with confidence. So if you're Vandy,

712
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:27,680
Speaker 5: you gotta see Diego Pavia make a good amount of plays.

713
00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:30,920
Speaker 5: So all of a sudden that that confidence just infiltrates

714
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:31,720
Speaker 5: the whole squad.

715
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:31,880
Speaker 4: You know.

716
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:34,759
Speaker 5: It's almost like a basketball team, like the the Fi

717
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:37,359
Speaker 5: Slama Jama days where they have a dunk and all

718
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:40,360
Speaker 5: of a sudden, the team is juiced. When Pavia is

719
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 5: making plays, it really gives them so much juice. So

720
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:47,279
Speaker 5: we'll see he's gonna make some but can he make

721
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 5: enough to keep him close and for that belief to

722
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:53,760
Speaker 5: really grow, because listen, Vandy's gonna give up some yards

723
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 5: and some points in the passing game. They've already given

724
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:58,799
Speaker 5: up nine touchdowns already. Ty Simpson's gonna do his thing,

725
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 5: you know, because he's playing confident football right now. I

726
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:05,160
Speaker 5: just don't see him reverting to the game one. You know,

727
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 5: Florida State, Ty Simpson that it's like a Benzel that

728
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:12,000
Speaker 5: day is dead dog. We don't roll like that no more.

729
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:14,719
Speaker 5: That's not how Ty Simpson rolls anymore. Now, right, that's

730
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:18,919
Speaker 5: where we're at. All Right, We've got Rich Ornberger, Penn State,

731
00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:22,600
Speaker 5: All American, Jared Smith FSR betting analyst. I'm Brian no

732
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 5: Coming up next the parlay platter, which have one selection

733
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 5: for you. We pull it together for a greater payout.

734
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 5: We'll compare notes next. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown

735
00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:34,920
Speaker 5: to Kickoff presented by BETMGM. It is Fox Sports Radios

736
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 5: Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. Be sure to

737
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:41,080
Speaker 5: check out the new looking features in the betmgm app.

738
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:43,640
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739
00:37:43,960 --> 00:37:46,839
Speaker 5: It's the fastest betmgm app. Ever, it's easier than ever

740
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:50,040
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741
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:53,040
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742
00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:56,360
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743
00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:58,640
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744
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:01,000
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745
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:05,719
Speaker 5: first bet. That's code countdown in the BETMGM app. All right,

746
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:06,359
Speaker 5: let's do this.

747
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:10,040
Speaker 3: Check this out, ar lad letter.

748
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 5: Yes, the platter, we each have one selection for you.

749
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:17,440
Speaker 5: We pull it together for a greater payout. Jared, we

750
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 5: start with you. What's something you like?

751
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 9: So I am in love infatuation with the over in

752
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:25,920
Speaker 9: this Bandy Bama game today. I'll just tell you right now,

753
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 9: I'm gonna give it to you and rapid fire at

754
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:30,319
Speaker 9: the current total of fifty six and a half. But

755
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:34,240
Speaker 9: we're gonna take it one step further in the platter

756
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:36,160
Speaker 9: because we want to get these ads nice and gc.

757
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:39,400
Speaker 8: So what are we gonna do. We're gonna sell two points.

758
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:40,239
Speaker 8: What do I mean by that?

759
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:42,880
Speaker 9: You go to your bet MGM tab and you go

760
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:46,319
Speaker 9: to the total section of this Bandy Bama game and

761
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:51,080
Speaker 9: you could basically remove some value, right, we could increase

762
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:53,480
Speaker 9: the total, so it's fifty six and a half, but

763
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:55,799
Speaker 9: we're gonna give you over fifty eight and a half

764
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:57,399
Speaker 9: to get this number to plus one oh five.

765
00:38:57,600 --> 00:38:59,799
Speaker 8: We talked about it in the last segment. It is

766
00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:02,600
Speaker 8: a very impressive Vandy offense this year.

767
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 9: They are typically a run, run, run, run, run team

768
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 9: this year, they are hunting explosives.

769
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 8: And their quarterback I'm gonna call him the Rudy of

770
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:10,360
Speaker 8: the SEC.

771
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 9: He's five foot nothing, one hundred and nothing, diego Pavia.

772
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 9: But this kid plays the quarterback position without an ounce

773
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:21,840
Speaker 9: of fear. And that is why I think Vandy, who's

774
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:23,759
Speaker 9: gonna be going for broke today? They Hey, they think

775
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:25,319
Speaker 9: they can win the SEC. They're five and oh they

776
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:27,319
Speaker 9: win this game. They're right in the mix. And I

777
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:30,759
Speaker 9: obviously think Alabama's offense with Ty Simpson, who's Heisman.

778
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 8: Candidate, is going to be slinging at all day long.

779
00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:36,960
Speaker 8: So give me the over with a twist.

780
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:39,479
Speaker 9: We're selling two points over fifty eight and a half

781
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 9: Vandy and Fama today at plus one oh five to

782
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 9: start the Parland All.

783
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:44,760
Speaker 4: Right, juicing up though over there.

784
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:48,360
Speaker 7: I love it, Jared, Okay, I'm going with Penn State

785
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:51,359
Speaker 7: minus twenty four and a half on the Rose at

786
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:57,200
Speaker 7: the Rose Bowl against their Big ten competitor UCLA. The Bruins, look,

787
00:39:57,239 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 7: they've been awful this season.

788
00:39:58,840 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 4: Penn State.

789
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:04,799
Speaker 7: It's an emotional pressure release valve, let's call it. And

790
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 7: that's exactly the way this game sets up Yeah, this

791
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 7: is a huge number to cover. James Franklin likes to

792
00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 7: cover huge numbers for his donors and his boosters. He

793
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:17,240
Speaker 7: pays attention to the betting lines.

794
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:19,919
Speaker 4: You can see it. You see it in the fourth quarter,

795
00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 4: you see it.

796
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 7: Late in games where they're close, and he makes sure

797
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:25,920
Speaker 7: bets are hitting.

798
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:29,680
Speaker 4: So I like this ticket. I think it was.

799
00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:33,479
Speaker 7: An unfortunate outcome against the Ducks. I think they make

800
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:36,839
Speaker 7: up for it in spades today against the Bruins. Give

801
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:39,439
Speaker 7: me Penn State and Drew all are having a big game,

802
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:41,919
Speaker 7: by the way, that may pop up later in the show.

803
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:44,879
Speaker 7: But Penn State covering twenty four and a half on.

804
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:48,800
Speaker 5: The road, all right, I'm going with this Texas Florida game.

805
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:50,640
Speaker 6: Give me under forty two and a half.

806
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:54,680
Speaker 5: I mean, Rich, we got lag Weight earlier this year

807
00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 5: in the LSU game, five interceptions, including a pick six

808
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:02,960
Speaker 5: at a TWA ball game. This is a real Texas defense.

809
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:06,600
Speaker 5: They've got NFL dudes on this defense. And I'm not

810
00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:10,000
Speaker 5: expecting Dj Lagway, who's struggling with his confidence, to all

811
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 5: of a sudden flourish in this game. And arch Manning Listen,

812
00:41:13,960 --> 00:41:16,319
Speaker 5: I know it's doom and gloom with arch I'd say

813
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:17,880
Speaker 5: give it a little bit of time. But this is

814
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 5: a real Florida defense as well. I think forty two

815
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:22,799
Speaker 5: and a half it's a little bit too much. How

816
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 5: many points is Florida scoring? Ten thirteen? We're not coming

817
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:28,080
Speaker 5: close to this total?

818
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:28,560
Speaker 8: Going over?

819
00:41:28,600 --> 00:41:30,719
Speaker 4: If that's the case, I.

820
00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:33,600
Speaker 8: Love this parlay plus six forty seven. It's hitting today, guys,

821
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:34,239
Speaker 8: bet it we.

822
00:41:34,239 --> 00:41:35,640
Speaker 3: Go like it all right?

823
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:38,000
Speaker 5: Coming up next, this team is a live dog thanks

824
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:41,720
Speaker 5: to its defense, but man, the offense is rough. Oh,

825
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:45,320
Speaker 5: good morning, happy Saturday to you. We are two hours

826
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:50,920
Speaker 5: away from kickoff here on a lovely college football weekend.

827
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:53,359
Speaker 6: Beautiful thing. All right, Come up next?

828
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:53,759
Speaker 4: Is it?

829
00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:57,280
Speaker 5: Is it a live dog or a dog with fleas

830
00:41:57,320 --> 00:41:59,480
Speaker 5: that comes your way in just a few seconds. Throughout

831
00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:02,320
Speaker 5: the entire football season, bet MGM will offer all different

832
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 5: types of no sweat tokens and odds boost tokens. Be

833
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:08,239
Speaker 5: on the lookout for no sweat same game parlay tokens,

834
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:12,040
Speaker 5: parlay boost tokens, and so much more. All right, we've

835
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:16,280
Speaker 5: got number nine Texas at unranked Florida.

836
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:17,240
Speaker 6: Man Florida.

837
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:20,920
Speaker 5: They start off looking good, you know, preseason ranked and

838
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:24,440
Speaker 5: all that. They are no longer ranked. They've been bad.

839
00:42:24,880 --> 00:42:25,440
Speaker 8: How bad?

840
00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:30,240
Speaker 5: They have scored thirty three points in three games against

841
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:34,759
Speaker 5: FBS opponents. Thirty three points in three separate games. Like

842
00:42:34,800 --> 00:42:37,959
Speaker 5: that's you see a lot of these FBS teams. They'll

843
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:42,040
Speaker 5: score thirty three in one game against the good FBS opponent.

844
00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 5: They've done that over three games. So this Florida offense

845
00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:50,520
Speaker 5: is a wreck. And going up against Texas's defense, You've

846
00:42:50,560 --> 00:42:54,240
Speaker 5: got dudes all over the place, You've got legitimate NFL talent.

847
00:42:54,360 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 6: I just don't know how much Florida is scoring in

848
00:42:56,239 --> 00:42:56,680
Speaker 6: this game.

849
00:42:57,040 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 5: I know there are a lot of people that are like, oh,

850
00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:01,919
Speaker 5: home dog. You know, if you can get it plus seven,

851
00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:04,360
Speaker 5: get it plus seven. Well, the sevens are long gone.

852
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:07,280
Speaker 5: And I just don't know how much Florida is scoring

853
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:10,640
Speaker 5: in this spot. I know we're down on arch Manning,

854
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 5: but listen, man compared to DJ Lagway right now, Arch

855
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:17,719
Speaker 5: Manning is the second coming of Jesus Christ. That's how

856
00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:20,080
Speaker 5: bad DJ Lagway?

857
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:25,680
Speaker 7: Goodness gracious, yeah, I mean, look, after six turnovers he

858
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:30,560
Speaker 7: was responsible for against LSU, you like the fact that

859
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:34,600
Speaker 7: against the Canes he didn't post a single pass that

860
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 7: was turnover worthy. However, you can tell that they've gotten

861
00:43:38,960 --> 00:43:41,839
Speaker 7: a little trigger shy of Florida. In the passing game,

862
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:46,720
Speaker 7: the Gators posted get this, a twenty one percent success

863
00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:51,040
Speaker 7: rate in passing downs and only two point seven yards

864
00:43:51,080 --> 00:43:53,760
Speaker 7: per play against Miami's defense.

865
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 4: They have completely lost faith in the passing game, and

866
00:43:58,080 --> 00:43:58,960
Speaker 4: understandably so.

867
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:02,560
Speaker 7: You you gotta circle the wagons when you have a

868
00:44:02,560 --> 00:44:05,840
Speaker 7: season that is flailing the way it is, and.

869
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 4: You gotta look at the head coach.

870
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:11,880
Speaker 7: Billy Napier sits atop the hottest seat in college football

871
00:44:12,000 --> 00:44:16,400
Speaker 7: right now. If they lose this football game, which I mean,

872
00:44:16,560 --> 00:44:20,799
Speaker 7: if you're looking at the spot, you probably feel like

873
00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:25,400
Speaker 7: they will, and then you question yourself. Okay, let me

874
00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:28,440
Speaker 7: take a look at it again. You know, desperation is

875
00:44:28,480 --> 00:44:33,640
Speaker 7: a hell of an incentivisor at times you know, is

876
00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:38,120
Speaker 7: this a spot where because you know the curtains about

877
00:44:38,160 --> 00:44:42,720
Speaker 7: to fall, something crazy happens. You know I would stay

878
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:45,440
Speaker 7: off this game personally. This is a tough one for me.

879
00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:50,759
Speaker 7: I mean, maybe like you did, Brian in our parlay there,

880
00:44:51,160 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 7: the unders are very alive. I don't love how Texas

881
00:44:54,440 --> 00:44:57,720
Speaker 7: has played against real competition. I think they've they've seemed

882
00:44:57,840 --> 00:45:01,560
Speaker 7: sluggish against Sam Houston. I mean that was a woodshed

883
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:05,200
Speaker 7: game for arch Manning in this offense. He finally looked

884
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:07,920
Speaker 7: like he played with the composure and the confidence that

885
00:45:08,000 --> 00:45:10,240
Speaker 7: he was supposed to play with in the opener against

886
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:13,239
Speaker 7: Ohio State and has yet to really come fully to

887
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:16,640
Speaker 7: fruition so far this season. So maybe there's some more

888
00:45:16,719 --> 00:45:19,480
Speaker 7: confidence there in the offense coming into this one. But

889
00:45:19,840 --> 00:45:23,040
Speaker 7: I really do feel like if you're gonna bet this game,

890
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:26,560
Speaker 7: the totals and probably the unders, maybe even first quarter

891
00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:29,360
Speaker 7: or first half unders too, not just the whole game spread.

892
00:45:30,280 --> 00:45:32,719
Speaker 9: Yeah, here's what I watch, or here's what I see

893
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:36,279
Speaker 9: when I watch arch Manning. I see a quarterback that's

894
00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:39,960
Speaker 9: still very jittery with his feet. And again I'm not

895
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:43,680
Speaker 9: this quarterback expert, but from all of my understanding of

896
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:48,360
Speaker 9: what I've been taught and what I've teaching kids, it

897
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:51,680
Speaker 9: starts from the feet up. Like you are a quarterback,

898
00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:53,920
Speaker 9: your arm is not the most important part of your

899
00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:57,799
Speaker 9: quarterbacking skills. It is the feet and the mind. In

900
00:45:57,840 --> 00:46:01,920
Speaker 9: my opinion, those are the two things that really dictate

901
00:46:02,560 --> 00:46:06,120
Speaker 9: how well you play the position. He's overstriding, his misses

902
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:09,880
Speaker 9: are low and away. He's struggling controlling the nose of

903
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:12,359
Speaker 9: the football. It's pointed down when he's missing, and that

904
00:46:12,400 --> 00:46:16,719
Speaker 9: tells me it's mechanics. And that's surprising, right because when

905
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:19,520
Speaker 9: we think of a Manning, the kid was basically born

906
00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 9: with a football in his hand, So mechanics was not

907
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:25,680
Speaker 9: something I would expect to be off. When I'm watching

908
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:28,720
Speaker 9: Arch Manning play football, that tells me that there's something

909
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:33,360
Speaker 9: off mentally, he's not fully trusting his mechanics.

910
00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:35,560
Speaker 8: That he's been taught years and years and years of this.

911
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:38,520
Speaker 9: Now, he did have moments when he's been mechanically clean,

912
00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:40,320
Speaker 9: Like if you go back and watch the Sam Houston

913
00:46:40,360 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 9: game from a couple weeks ago, he.

914
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:44,319
Speaker 8: Got hit early in the game.

915
00:46:44,360 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 9: He took a big shot in the pocket, and from

916
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:48,480
Speaker 9: that point on he looked much cleaner.

917
00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:50,359
Speaker 8: It was almost like it woke him up a little bit.

918
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:52,560
Speaker 9: He looked a lot more comfortable in that game on

919
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:55,520
Speaker 9: boots play action rollouts when you're kind of outside the pocket.

920
00:46:55,520 --> 00:46:57,680
Speaker 9: That's a good way to mitigate some of those mechanical

921
00:46:57,760 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 9: flaws when you get a quarterback like him that's on

922
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:02,000
Speaker 9: the move. But again, after he took that hit, he

923
00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:05,120
Speaker 9: looked much better, and then he had the rushing touchdown

924
00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:07,160
Speaker 9: right when he or a farm The kid that that one,

925
00:47:07,239 --> 00:47:10,520
Speaker 9: that play was all over social media. To me, if

926
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:13,120
Speaker 9: I was coaching at Sarks, a much better coach than me,

927
00:47:13,280 --> 00:47:15,839
Speaker 9: significantly better offensive mind. I'm not trying to tell him

928
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:18,879
Speaker 9: how to do his job, but I would get Arch

929
00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:21,399
Speaker 9: involved in the run game very early here.

930
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:22,719
Speaker 8: To me, that.

931
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:26,000
Speaker 9: Usually settles down a quarterback that's a little bit jittery,

932
00:47:26,719 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 9: take a hit, get a little bit dirty, dust yourself off,

933
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:32,759
Speaker 9: and then go play football. I mean, we have to,

934
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:35,080
Speaker 9: you know. Also, remember he hasn't even played a full

935
00:47:35,120 --> 00:47:37,080
Speaker 9: he hasn't been a starter in a full season of

936
00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:41,719
Speaker 9: college football. Yet he's still a very young, inexperienced quarterback

937
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:45,640
Speaker 9: at the collegiate level. I think his spatial awareness will improve.

938
00:47:46,520 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 9: Sarks offense gives you a lot of free access throws.

939
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:52,160
Speaker 9: That's kind of the way he runs things that gets

940
00:47:52,200 --> 00:47:55,280
Speaker 9: you comfortable in the game early. Just hit your layups.

941
00:47:55,360 --> 00:47:57,680
Speaker 9: If you hit your layups, you're gonna have success in

942
00:47:57,680 --> 00:47:59,920
Speaker 9: this offense. He's a big kid, six four two twenty.

943
00:48:00,120 --> 00:48:04,400
Speaker 9: Use your legs, use your athleticism. Change the manipulation like

944
00:48:04,440 --> 00:48:07,160
Speaker 9: manipulate the launch point. Don't just stand in the pocket

945
00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:09,320
Speaker 9: and make throws. And I think he's going to continue

946
00:48:09,360 --> 00:48:10,160
Speaker 9: to have some success.

947
00:48:11,000 --> 00:48:13,359
Speaker 5: Yeah, listen, I buy what you're selling as far as

948
00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:14,279
Speaker 5: the mechanics go.

949
00:48:14,600 --> 00:48:16,200
Speaker 6: And it does make me think of.

950
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:20,920
Speaker 5: Josh Allen, the Bills quarterback, and they were doing was

951
00:48:20,960 --> 00:48:22,320
Speaker 5: it they were on Hard Knocks?

952
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:24,600
Speaker 6: Is that the show of the offseason they were on.

953
00:48:24,680 --> 00:48:25,880
Speaker 6: I think they were on Hard Knocks.

954
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:28,600
Speaker 5: But one of the episodes they showed him with Chris

955
00:48:28,640 --> 00:48:33,600
Speaker 5: hess Who's this you know quarterback mechanic guy, right, He's

956
00:48:33,640 --> 00:48:37,200
Speaker 5: all he's got this state of the art technology. It's

957
00:48:37,280 --> 00:48:40,560
Speaker 5: you know, measuring this and measuring that. You're overstriding and

958
00:48:40,560 --> 00:48:43,000
Speaker 5: you're not clearing your hips and all that type of stuff.

959
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:48,799
Speaker 5: Josh Allen's throwing motion is galaxy. Is better than it

960
00:48:48,960 --> 00:48:51,360
Speaker 5: was his first two years. And he was an inaccurate

961
00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:54,359
Speaker 5: passer his first two years in the NFL. But all

962
00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:57,400
Speaker 5: of a sudden, his mechanics are sound like it's all

963
00:48:57,400 --> 00:49:00,120
Speaker 5: about his hips. Like you remember how Dak Remember how

964
00:49:00,160 --> 00:49:02,759
Speaker 5: you do that weird warm up thing where he's moving

965
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:05,279
Speaker 5: his hips all around right like that. That's a big

966
00:49:05,320 --> 00:49:07,799
Speaker 5: part of the throwing motion is clearing your hips. And

967
00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:11,239
Speaker 5: no longer is Josh Allen just throwing with his entire arm.

968
00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:14,600
Speaker 5: He was an arm thrower. Now he's like a body thrower.

969
00:49:14,640 --> 00:49:17,640
Speaker 5: He's doing it with his hips. And if arch Manning

970
00:49:17,680 --> 00:49:20,880
Speaker 5: can get there, look out like we all want our

971
00:49:20,920 --> 00:49:22,560
Speaker 5: quarterbacks to be microwaveable.

972
00:49:22,800 --> 00:49:23,239
Speaker 6: You know what I mean.

973
00:49:23,280 --> 00:49:25,719
Speaker 5: It's gonna take a little bit of time. All Right,

974
00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:28,720
Speaker 5: this is a steak. You gotta let it like simmer

975
00:49:28,800 --> 00:49:32,400
Speaker 5: for a while, you know, you gotta let like everything marinate.

976
00:49:32,680 --> 00:49:36,120
Speaker 5: It's gonna take time. It's a process. But these people

977
00:49:36,120 --> 00:49:38,439
Speaker 5: that want instant results, like man, what were the three

978
00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:40,400
Speaker 5: hundred passing yards against Ohio State?

979
00:49:40,920 --> 00:49:41,480
Speaker 4: Arch Manning?

980
00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:45,200
Speaker 5: And it's like, bro, like, take take a breath and

981
00:49:45,200 --> 00:49:47,279
Speaker 5: settle down for a bit. I think he's going to

982
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:50,520
Speaker 5: get there. But what you're explaining, Jared, if he does

983
00:49:50,560 --> 00:49:54,960
Speaker 5: get there like Josh Allen did mechanically, whoa. I think

984
00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:57,280
Speaker 5: that this guy can be unbelievable.

985
00:49:57,320 --> 00:49:57,879
Speaker 4: I really do.

986
00:49:58,280 --> 00:49:58,480
Speaker 3: Well.

987
00:49:59,440 --> 00:50:02,640
Speaker 6: As far as Texas defense, Rich, listen to this again.

988
00:50:03,120 --> 00:50:04,480
Speaker 6: We got lagway earlier.

989
00:50:04,680 --> 00:50:04,879
Speaker 4: Rich.

990
00:50:05,040 --> 00:50:08,840
Speaker 5: Right, you're going up against the Texas defense that's allowing

991
00:50:09,000 --> 00:50:12,880
Speaker 5: seven point eight points per game, that's second best nationally,

992
00:50:13,160 --> 00:50:16,320
Speaker 5: and Texas they give up two hundred and twelve yards

993
00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:21,520
Speaker 5: per game. That's fourth best. That's what Florida's sputtering anemic

994
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:23,040
Speaker 5: offenses up against tonight.

995
00:50:23,520 --> 00:50:27,680
Speaker 7: Yeah yeah, you said it all right there. Defensive coordinator

996
00:50:27,760 --> 00:50:30,759
Speaker 7: Pete Kwakowski in this three three five scheme has really

997
00:50:30,800 --> 00:50:34,960
Speaker 7: done a nice job, especially against the run, stopping explosives.

998
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:38,640
Speaker 7: And so when when you can't really get things going

999
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:42,680
Speaker 7: in the run game, it forces the offenses that you

1000
00:50:42,800 --> 00:50:47,600
Speaker 7: oppose to run more plays. And what does that expose

1001
00:50:47,680 --> 00:50:52,080
Speaker 7: an offense too well, especially if you're trailing, it exposes

1002
00:50:52,120 --> 00:50:54,800
Speaker 7: you to having to put the ball in the air,

1003
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:58,120
Speaker 7: and that gives you more opportunities to turn it over.

1004
00:50:58,760 --> 00:51:01,400
Speaker 7: And and this de defense has done a nice job

1005
00:51:01,560 --> 00:51:04,520
Speaker 7: in that category as well. It's been the biggest positive

1006
00:51:04,560 --> 00:51:08,000
Speaker 7: really of the Longhorn season so far. And in terms

1007
00:51:08,040 --> 00:51:10,799
Speaker 7: of just looking at success rate, which is you know,

1008
00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 7: obviously a quotient that includes a couple of other different factors,

1009
00:51:15,960 --> 00:51:17,640
Speaker 7: they're fifteenth in the country.

1010
00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:20,240
Speaker 4: I mean, this is a Texas defense.

1011
00:51:20,320 --> 00:51:22,880
Speaker 7: Everybody was talking about arch Manning and the offense, and

1012
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:25,719
Speaker 7: for obvious reasons. You know, so many of the prop

1013
00:51:25,760 --> 00:51:28,000
Speaker 7: bets come in on the offensive side of the ball.

1014
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:31,480
Speaker 7: In college football, we know where you know, a fans

1015
00:51:32,120 --> 00:51:34,680
Speaker 7: Brett is buttered, so to speak. And so we talked

1016
00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:36,840
Speaker 7: a lot of Arch Manning leading up to this season,

1017
00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:41,719
Speaker 7: but the reality is defense still wins championships. You know,

1018
00:51:41,840 --> 00:51:47,000
Speaker 7: the uglies up front, the defensive coordinators with you know,

1019
00:51:47,480 --> 00:51:51,360
Speaker 7: the mad scientists behind the scenes. Those are the guys

1020
00:51:51,360 --> 00:51:54,120
Speaker 7: who rarely get as much credit as they deserve for

1021
00:51:54,120 --> 00:51:57,880
Speaker 7: a successful season. And if Texas has a successful season,

1022
00:51:57,920 --> 00:52:02,120
Speaker 7: which they still can have a March Manning goes through

1023
00:52:02,160 --> 00:52:05,520
Speaker 7: this maturation process and we see the cake being baked

1024
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:08,760
Speaker 7: instead of being microwaved like everybody wants.

1025
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:12,239
Speaker 4: The instant results. Yeah, I think it's going to.

1026
00:52:12,239 --> 00:52:16,120
Speaker 7: Be predicated around a strong defense bolstering the early part

1027
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:17,439
Speaker 7: of this season.

1028
00:52:17,520 --> 00:52:20,520
Speaker 4: And then watch out if this offense starts clicking.

1029
00:52:20,800 --> 00:52:23,960
Speaker 7: If we see more of what Manning did against Sam Houston,

1030
00:52:24,000 --> 00:52:27,120
Speaker 7: against better FBS talent, this.

1031
00:52:27,000 --> 00:52:29,120
Speaker 4: Could be a special season for the Longhorns.

1032
00:52:29,120 --> 00:52:33,839
Speaker 7: But right now, DJ Lagway and this Florida team, they've

1033
00:52:33,840 --> 00:52:37,680
Speaker 7: gotten uphill climb against a defense that's been stingy with

1034
00:52:37,880 --> 00:52:41,400
Speaker 7: yardage on the ground, and that's a problem because Florida's

1035
00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:42,919
Speaker 7: been terrible throwing the ball.

1036
00:52:43,640 --> 00:52:46,839
Speaker 9: Yeah, I'll be honest, I would not be shocked if

1037
00:52:46,840 --> 00:52:47,880
Speaker 9: Florida won this game.

1038
00:52:48,440 --> 00:52:50,000
Speaker 8: I wouldn't not at all.

1039
00:52:50,719 --> 00:52:54,640
Speaker 9: It feels like that this is the game, especially based

1040
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:57,000
Speaker 9: on the market. I mean, it's under a touchdown right now,

1041
00:52:57,760 --> 00:53:01,200
Speaker 9: and we've seen it move towards Florida just based off

1042
00:53:01,239 --> 00:53:04,440
Speaker 9: of the way this crazy college football season is gone.

1043
00:53:04,880 --> 00:53:09,080
Speaker 9: It would not shock me in the slightest if everyone

1044
00:53:09,200 --> 00:53:11,760
Speaker 9: riding off Billy n Apier, everyone.

1045
00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:14,799
Speaker 8: Thinking this is the end. They're playing the.

1046
00:53:14,800 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 9: Violin right, the Titanic is sinking, and then they beat

1047
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:21,440
Speaker 9: Texas in Arch.

1048
00:53:21,440 --> 00:53:24,319
Speaker 8: Many wouldn't shock me at all. Here's how they can

1049
00:53:24,360 --> 00:53:24,959
Speaker 8: win the game.

1050
00:53:25,920 --> 00:53:29,640
Speaker 9: Run the ball. Jane Bows averaging six yards per carry.

1051
00:53:29,719 --> 00:53:32,520
Speaker 9: He had ten carries against LSU, he had twelve against Miami.

1052
00:53:32,600 --> 00:53:36,000
Speaker 9: Make that make sense. Your quarterback is lagwaying everyone left

1053
00:53:36,040 --> 00:53:40,960
Speaker 9: and right. Your running game is actually pretty prolific, and

1054
00:53:41,000 --> 00:53:44,160
Speaker 9: you're only giving your guy averaging six yards to carry

1055
00:53:44,239 --> 00:53:48,000
Speaker 9: twenty two combined totes in your two biggest games Miami

1056
00:53:48,040 --> 00:53:48,600
Speaker 9: and LSU.

1057
00:53:49,160 --> 00:53:49,960
Speaker 8: Doesn't make sense.

1058
00:53:50,400 --> 00:53:53,600
Speaker 9: Florida's won for nineteen on third downs of nine plus

1059
00:53:53,600 --> 00:53:57,120
Speaker 9: this year. I mean, that's bad, but it also tells

1060
00:53:57,120 --> 00:53:58,719
Speaker 9: me that they're not getting into a lot of third

1061
00:53:58,719 --> 00:54:02,440
Speaker 9: and manageables. They have nineteen third downs this year that

1062
00:54:02,480 --> 00:54:06,959
Speaker 9: are of nine yards or more. They've only been able

1063
00:54:07,000 --> 00:54:10,279
Speaker 9: to convert one of them. Texas, though, also struggles on

1064
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:14,920
Speaker 9: third downs. They struggle in getting off the field. There

1065
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:17,240
Speaker 9: are one hundred and twenty sixth then penalties. The swamp

1066
00:54:17,280 --> 00:54:21,600
Speaker 9: does not make you more disciplined. The Gators are playing

1067
00:54:21,640 --> 00:54:24,960
Speaker 9: inspired football right now in defense. I don't know why,

1068
00:54:25,280 --> 00:54:29,040
Speaker 9: because again, their coaches kind of a zombie, but it

1069
00:54:29,200 --> 00:54:34,200
Speaker 9: does seem like both teams off the by maybe lagway

1070
00:54:34,239 --> 00:54:37,759
Speaker 9: gets a little healthy. Like I'm not saying I'm not

1071
00:54:37,760 --> 00:54:39,560
Speaker 9: gonna go out on a limb and say Florida is

1072
00:54:39,560 --> 00:54:41,000
Speaker 9: gonna win this game, because I don't want to.

1073
00:54:41,120 --> 00:54:43,400
Speaker 8: I don't want to smoke from all the Texas fans.

1074
00:54:43,719 --> 00:54:49,760
Speaker 9: But I do believe there is a path here. Low

1075
00:54:49,840 --> 00:54:54,840
Speaker 9: total game, short spread, run the ball, rattle arch on

1076
00:54:54,880 --> 00:54:58,200
Speaker 9: the road a little bit. That's the recipe I think

1077
00:54:58,280 --> 00:54:58,960
Speaker 9: for an upset.

1078
00:54:59,600 --> 00:55:00,680
Speaker 6: Hey man, I hear you.

1079
00:55:01,320 --> 00:55:05,040
Speaker 5: There's certainly a path toward that happening, but there's a

1080
00:55:05,080 --> 00:55:10,440
Speaker 5: path for the opposite of happening, right Yeah. That's what

1081
00:55:10,480 --> 00:55:15,480
Speaker 5: I love about That's what I love about sports betting

1082
00:55:15,560 --> 00:55:18,160
Speaker 5: is right now to this point, like arch Manning has

1083
00:55:18,160 --> 00:55:21,799
Speaker 5: had a lot of struggles. The case that you know, uh,

1084
00:55:22,120 --> 00:55:25,400
Speaker 5: you know, the lawyer Jared Smith over there just made

1085
00:55:26,200 --> 00:55:29,960
Speaker 5: can be the you know, the outcome today can absolutely

1086
00:55:29,960 --> 00:55:30,600
Speaker 5: be the outcome.

1087
00:55:30,680 --> 00:55:33,600
Speaker 6: But if it is not, you're sitting there.

1088
00:55:33,480 --> 00:55:40,440
Speaker 5: Going why the hell did I back Lagway and Napier

1089
00:55:41,000 --> 00:55:45,760
Speaker 5: when they're one in three against a really talented Texas squad,

1090
00:55:45,840 --> 00:55:47,120
Speaker 5: you know what I mean? Like it could go that

1091
00:55:47,160 --> 00:55:49,880
Speaker 5: way too, So I love that dynamic as well. Like

1092
00:55:50,560 --> 00:55:53,839
Speaker 5: I think this is uh, this is a good This

1093
00:55:53,920 --> 00:55:58,200
Speaker 5: is a good recipe for you know, a head slap

1094
00:55:58,320 --> 00:56:01,440
Speaker 5: where you're just like slapping your forehead, Like what was

1095
00:56:01,480 --> 00:56:04,040
Speaker 5: I even thinking before this game kicked off? You know,

1096
00:56:04,120 --> 00:56:06,439
Speaker 5: it has that potential either way, no matter what bet

1097
00:56:06,480 --> 00:56:08,760
Speaker 5: you're on, for it to go really bad.

1098
00:56:09,880 --> 00:56:13,000
Speaker 7: That's why I think in games like this, I agree

1099
00:56:13,080 --> 00:56:15,760
Speaker 7: with everything you just said, Jared, all the reasons why

1100
00:56:15,840 --> 00:56:19,120
Speaker 7: Texas could get tripped up here and desperation. As I

1101
00:56:19,200 --> 00:56:24,720
Speaker 7: mentioned earlier, it is a really tricky ingredient to add

1102
00:56:25,239 --> 00:56:28,600
Speaker 7: to the whole recipe. When when you have a coach

1103
00:56:28,640 --> 00:56:31,920
Speaker 7: who is literally coaching for his job, that can change

1104
00:56:31,920 --> 00:56:34,640
Speaker 7: the paradigm and it can really open up the playbook,

1105
00:56:35,120 --> 00:56:39,880
Speaker 7: and you could see things where maybe in a season's plan,

1106
00:56:40,480 --> 00:56:42,799
Speaker 7: you're not gonna tip your hand too far. You're gonna

1107
00:56:42,800 --> 00:56:45,359
Speaker 7: set things up for later in the year. You're gonna

1108
00:56:45,440 --> 00:56:48,719
Speaker 7: use certain packages and gotta have it moments when you

1109
00:56:48,760 --> 00:56:52,040
Speaker 7: get deep into your conference schedule, when when you're coaching

1110
00:56:52,080 --> 00:56:56,080
Speaker 7: for your life, you empty out every single bullet you

1111
00:56:56,160 --> 00:57:00,919
Speaker 7: got chambered sometimes and you go down swinging, so to speak. Proverbially,

1112
00:57:01,160 --> 00:57:05,640
Speaker 7: I think that's a tricky ingredient to add to the recipe.

1113
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:09,200
Speaker 7: So when I look at this game, I look at

1114
00:57:09,239 --> 00:57:12,680
Speaker 7: the total, and I try to think about thematically how

1115
00:57:12,719 --> 00:57:14,920
Speaker 7: I see this game going. And I could see this

1116
00:57:15,080 --> 00:57:20,480
Speaker 7: being a grueling win or potentially a grueling loss for

1117
00:57:20,640 --> 00:57:23,240
Speaker 7: Texas on the road, But I do not see it

1118
00:57:23,280 --> 00:57:26,440
Speaker 7: being a high scoring affair. So when I have a

1119
00:57:26,480 --> 00:57:30,919
Speaker 7: hard time feeling the spread right, really, like you said,

1120
00:57:31,080 --> 00:57:34,600
Speaker 7: it's kind of an artificially low number, especially considering how

1121
00:57:34,640 --> 00:57:38,360
Speaker 7: poor Florida has played this season so far, and you're

1122
00:57:38,440 --> 00:57:41,160
Speaker 7: curious as to why that number is the number. Ignore

1123
00:57:41,200 --> 00:57:43,120
Speaker 7: that number, look at the other one, look at the

1124
00:57:43,160 --> 00:57:46,120
Speaker 7: bigger number, look at the total, and say to yourself.

1125
00:57:45,800 --> 00:57:48,120
Speaker 4: Do I really see these two teams.

1126
00:57:47,880 --> 00:57:52,880
Speaker 7: Mustering enough offense to surpass that total, and my stomach,

1127
00:57:52,960 --> 00:57:56,720
Speaker 7: my gut is telling me no way. And especially in

1128
00:57:56,800 --> 00:58:00,160
Speaker 7: the opening rounds of this fight, I could see these

1129
00:58:00,240 --> 00:58:03,040
Speaker 7: two fighters circling each other for a little bit. I

1130
00:58:03,040 --> 00:58:06,320
Speaker 7: could see everybody trying to find their moments of opportunity,

1131
00:58:06,680 --> 00:58:10,720
Speaker 7: and so I like Brian's under for the game. But

1132
00:58:10,840 --> 00:58:12,960
Speaker 7: I even like the first half under. I think it's

1133
00:58:12,960 --> 00:58:16,120
Speaker 7: twenty one and a half right now. That might come

1134
00:58:16,200 --> 00:58:18,160
Speaker 7: up later. That might be one of my rapid fires.

1135
00:58:18,160 --> 00:58:21,760
Speaker 7: I'm still mulling it. That's an interesting game though, Man

1136
00:58:21,960 --> 00:58:25,840
Speaker 7: Texas that they could use an arch man in coming

1137
00:58:25,880 --> 00:58:31,480
Speaker 7: out party Lagway and this Florida offense, and especially Billy Napier,

1138
00:58:31,520 --> 00:58:34,120
Speaker 7: the head coach needs a win in the worst way

1139
00:58:34,280 --> 00:58:38,480
Speaker 7: like blood. So this is gonna be an interesting watch today.

1140
00:58:39,280 --> 00:58:43,240
Speaker 8: What Rich just said is fantastic gambling advice.

1141
00:58:43,320 --> 00:58:45,360
Speaker 9: And I know we give a lot of betting advice

1142
00:58:45,440 --> 00:58:47,800
Speaker 9: on who to bet on on the show.

1143
00:58:48,440 --> 00:58:50,080
Speaker 8: I wouldn't consider this show like.

1144
00:58:50,000 --> 00:58:53,320
Speaker 9: A gambling in the weeds all the time type of show.

1145
00:58:53,680 --> 00:58:58,040
Speaker 9: But what Rich just said is incredible gambling advice for

1146
00:58:58,120 --> 00:58:59,480
Speaker 9: the macro big picture.

1147
00:59:00,120 --> 00:59:01,320
Speaker 8: You are uncertain on a game.

1148
00:59:01,360 --> 00:59:03,040
Speaker 9: You're looking at this Texas Florida spread and you're like,

1149
00:59:03,080 --> 00:59:06,480
Speaker 9: it's five and a half. I could see Texas, you know,

1150
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:09,960
Speaker 9: winning ten to three. I could see Texas winning thirteen

1151
00:59:10,000 --> 00:59:13,960
Speaker 9: to three. Look at the total and see what the

1152
00:59:14,000 --> 00:59:17,600
Speaker 9: market thinks the vibe of this game is going to be. Yeah,

1153
00:59:17,640 --> 00:59:19,640
Speaker 9: forty two is a very low.

1154
00:59:19,440 --> 00:59:21,920
Speaker 8: Total in a college football game.

1155
00:59:22,800 --> 00:59:25,840
Speaker 9: So if that is what we expect the vibe to be,

1156
00:59:27,080 --> 00:59:30,960
Speaker 9: reassess your opinion on the spread based on what the

1157
00:59:31,000 --> 00:59:36,800
Speaker 9: projected total is. Right, high scoring game probably favors Texas covering,

1158
00:59:37,200 --> 00:59:41,960
Speaker 9: probably right, arch Manning gets going, DJ Lagway's throwing bullets.

1159
00:59:42,880 --> 00:59:46,080
Speaker 9: The over probably correlates a little bit more to Texas

1160
00:59:46,080 --> 00:59:49,440
Speaker 9: here in my opinion. Now usually its favorite and underdog

1161
00:59:49,560 --> 00:59:52,720
Speaker 9: and over. But I think in this particular instance, based

1162
00:59:52,720 --> 00:59:54,560
Speaker 9: off of the very low total and what we've seen

1163
00:59:54,560 --> 00:59:57,640
Speaker 9: from Florida, it kind of gives me the vibe that

1164
00:59:57,720 --> 01:00:00,240
Speaker 9: Florida wants to play a thirteen to ten game.

1165
01:00:00,880 --> 01:00:02,600
Speaker 8: That's the game they want to play.

1166
01:00:02,880 --> 01:00:05,120
Speaker 9: That's the way their defense is played, that's how their

1167
01:00:05,200 --> 01:00:06,200
Speaker 9: running game is played.

1168
01:00:06,440 --> 01:00:08,400
Speaker 8: So now that you can look at the total.

1169
01:00:08,160 --> 01:00:11,120
Speaker 9: And say, wow, forty two is really low, reassess your

1170
01:00:11,160 --> 01:00:15,560
Speaker 9: opinion on who wins based off of that total. I

1171
01:00:15,560 --> 01:00:18,720
Speaker 9: think that is always a great way to also gauge props.

1172
01:00:18,880 --> 01:00:20,520
Speaker 9: We'll talk about it a little bit, you know later

1173
01:00:20,600 --> 01:00:23,400
Speaker 9: and prop it up. I reassess my vibe on a

1174
01:00:23,440 --> 01:00:25,800
Speaker 9: prop based off of what the game total is. So

1175
01:00:26,360 --> 01:00:30,360
Speaker 9: use what information the market and the sportsbooks are giving

1176
01:00:30,400 --> 01:00:34,000
Speaker 9: you to reformat your opinion on a game.

1177
01:00:34,240 --> 01:00:37,760
Speaker 8: Really good macro advice Rich just gave and you can

1178
01:00:37,800 --> 01:00:39,200
Speaker 8: apply to this Texas Farida game.

1179
01:00:39,360 --> 01:00:43,280
Speaker 5: By the way, last little tiny nugget. Texas, they rank

1180
01:00:43,520 --> 01:00:47,360
Speaker 5: number fifteen in the SEC in red zone touchdown percentage.

1181
01:00:47,880 --> 01:00:52,040
Speaker 5: They're also twelfth in third down offense. Right, so you're

1182
01:00:52,040 --> 01:00:53,600
Speaker 5: relating at the under. It's like, once they're in the

1183
01:00:53,600 --> 01:00:56,520
Speaker 5: red zone, they're not scoring touchdowns, No, it's third down.

1184
01:00:56,680 --> 01:00:59,560
Speaker 5: They're having hard time picking up first downs, they're having

1185
01:00:59,560 --> 01:01:02,800
Speaker 5: a hard time moving the chains. And these defenses are

1186
01:01:02,800 --> 01:01:05,080
Speaker 5: both good. So yeah, under seems to make a lot

1187
01:01:05,080 --> 01:01:07,440
Speaker 5: of sense in this one. All right, We've got Rich Orenberger,

1188
01:01:07,520 --> 01:01:10,840
Speaker 5: Penn State All American, Jared Smith FSR betting analyst.

1189
01:01:11,240 --> 01:01:11,920
Speaker 4: I'm Brian no.

1190
01:01:12,080 --> 01:01:14,720
Speaker 5: Register with BETMGM to get instant access to the best

1191
01:01:14,800 --> 01:01:18,560
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1192
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1193
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1194
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1195
01:01:27,200 --> 01:01:30,120
Speaker 5: place your money line, parlay bets and more. Today again,

1196
01:01:30,160 --> 01:01:34,600
Speaker 5: the bonus code is countdown BETMGM, make it legendary. Coming

1197
01:01:34,680 --> 01:01:38,160
Speaker 5: up next, our main man, Seamus McGee drops on by

1198
01:01:38,240 --> 01:01:41,720
Speaker 5: from BETMGM gets you all set for a full slate

1199
01:01:41,840 --> 01:01:45,400
Speaker 5: of college games and maybe some that aren't even you're

1200
01:01:45,440 --> 01:01:47,400
Speaker 5: not even aware or on the slate. It might be

1201
01:01:47,440 --> 01:01:49,280
Speaker 5: a part of his shame as special we'll find out.

1202
01:01:49,560 --> 01:01:53,400
Speaker 5: It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM.

1203
01:01:53,680 --> 01:01:59,360
Speaker 5: It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM.

1204
01:02:00,040 --> 01:02:01,920
Speaker 5: We got to add the kickoff now right. We're in

1205
01:02:01,960 --> 01:02:04,280
Speaker 5: football season here, hey, be sure to subscribe to the

1206
01:02:04,320 --> 01:02:07,479
Speaker 5: Fox Sports Radio YouTube channel. Just search Fox Sports Radio

1207
01:02:07,600 --> 01:02:09,880
Speaker 5: on YouTube and you'll see our best videos from all

1208
01:02:09,920 --> 01:02:12,000
Speaker 5: of our shows. And don't stop there. Hit the thumbs

1209
01:02:12,080 --> 01:02:14,920
Speaker 5: up icon and comment away. Let us know whose take

1210
01:02:15,000 --> 01:02:17,640
Speaker 5: you like and even who's take you don't like. Just

1211
01:02:17,640 --> 01:02:22,400
Speaker 5: search Fox Sports radio on YouTube and subscribe. All right,

1212
01:02:22,480 --> 01:02:23,160
Speaker 5: let's do this.

1213
01:02:24,920 --> 01:02:26,640
Speaker 3: Follow the money, real good money.

1214
01:02:27,280 --> 01:02:29,640
Speaker 5: All right, Well, welcome in our good friend, Seamus McGee,

1215
01:02:29,720 --> 01:02:33,800
Speaker 5: team lead of sports trading at bet MGM. Good morning, Seamus.

1216
01:02:34,280 --> 01:02:37,400
Speaker 5: So I first off, maybe you can help me out.

1217
01:02:37,520 --> 01:02:39,560
Speaker 5: I know your Virginia Cavaliers.

1218
01:02:40,120 --> 01:02:40,760
Speaker 6: You love them.

1219
01:02:40,800 --> 01:02:42,840
Speaker 5: You were storming the field, you were knocking, you were

1220
01:02:42,880 --> 01:02:45,600
Speaker 5: bowling over poor Florida State players last week.

1221
01:02:45,640 --> 01:02:45,840
Speaker 4: You know.

1222
01:02:46,480 --> 01:02:50,200
Speaker 5: And I see this number next to their name. I

1223
01:02:50,280 --> 01:02:54,480
Speaker 5: see a two four. I don't know if you can

1224
01:02:54,520 --> 01:02:56,760
Speaker 5: you enlighten me what that even means?

1225
01:02:58,000 --> 01:03:03,200
Speaker 1: Three words? Get used to it. Yes, this is a

1226
01:03:03,320 --> 01:03:07,680
Speaker 1: top twenty five football team, fellas, get used to it.

1227
01:03:08,440 --> 01:03:12,360
Speaker 1: Big game room for a wet down spot here. They

1228
01:03:12,440 --> 01:03:13,080
Speaker 1: gotta go.

1229
01:03:15,480 --> 01:03:18,760
Speaker 9: A top twenty five team that is a dog against

1230
01:03:18,760 --> 01:03:19,560
Speaker 9: Louisville today.

1231
01:03:19,800 --> 01:03:21,320
Speaker 4: How do we is that?

1232
01:03:21,400 --> 01:03:24,200
Speaker 8: Telling you a touchdown dog at Louisville today? Is that

1233
01:03:24,240 --> 01:03:27,800
Speaker 8: a track line? Everyone's on Virginia right in all?

1234
01:03:28,280 --> 01:03:30,560
Speaker 1: I think Louisville is a pretty underrated team. I don't

1235
01:03:30,600 --> 01:03:32,680
Speaker 1: think it looks great against JAMU at the start of

1236
01:03:32,680 --> 01:03:35,200
Speaker 1: the other they still ended up winning by fourteen. I

1237
01:03:35,240 --> 01:03:37,720
Speaker 1: think melar Man's is a really good quarterback. I think

1238
01:03:37,800 --> 01:03:40,520
Speaker 1: Louisville's a little slept on around the country, but we're

1239
01:03:40,560 --> 01:03:42,920
Speaker 1: still seeing some handle trickle in on this game. It

1240
01:03:43,040 --> 01:03:46,600
Speaker 1: is pretty balanced so far. A little bit more action

1241
01:03:46,720 --> 01:03:50,240
Speaker 1: on Louisville though, But the Sharks did like Virginia early

1242
01:03:50,320 --> 01:03:52,400
Speaker 1: in the week. When this is touching seven.

1243
01:03:53,520 --> 01:03:58,040
Speaker 7: You know, we're just talking about this Florida Texas game. Uh,

1244
01:03:58,160 --> 01:04:02,080
Speaker 7: it feels like Florida knee to win like blood because

1245
01:04:02,120 --> 01:04:07,240
Speaker 7: of the situation. Billy Napiers in low spread Texas favored,

1246
01:04:07,320 --> 01:04:10,160
Speaker 7: but not by much, not up to a touchdown.

1247
01:04:10,840 --> 01:04:12,480
Speaker 4: What's your feel on this game?

1248
01:04:12,880 --> 01:04:16,760
Speaker 7: Arch Manning hasn't looked like the next prodigal Sun at

1249
01:04:16,840 --> 01:04:20,920
Speaker 7: quarterback that we were expecting against Ohio State and the opener.

1250
01:04:21,280 --> 01:04:22,439
Speaker 4: How do you see this one going?

1251
01:04:23,720 --> 01:04:25,800
Speaker 1: Some of our friends like to say people are betting

1252
01:04:25,800 --> 01:04:29,320
Speaker 1: this game with yesterday's paper. He seems like, I mean,

1253
01:04:29,440 --> 01:04:32,120
Speaker 1: this line opened seven. We're down to four and a

1254
01:04:32,200 --> 01:04:36,360
Speaker 1: half now and it is pros versus Joe. The public

1255
01:04:36,480 --> 01:04:39,120
Speaker 1: is all over Texas, it doesn't matter the number, but

1256
01:04:39,120 --> 01:04:44,280
Speaker 1: the Sharks just keep driving this number down. So the

1257
01:04:44,320 --> 01:04:46,720
Speaker 1: book is on the same side as some of the

1258
01:04:46,760 --> 01:04:49,000
Speaker 1: sharper betters here we're going to be rooting for Florida,

1259
01:04:49,040 --> 01:04:52,080
Speaker 1: and Florida outright would also be amazing for the book.

1260
01:04:52,880 --> 01:04:55,560
Speaker 9: Yeah, that's a scary one, sorry, Brian.

1261
01:04:55,800 --> 01:04:59,160
Speaker 5: How about ranked versus ranked here Seamus right, the two

1262
01:04:59,200 --> 01:05:04,280
Speaker 5: big ones and at Bama, Miami at Florida State, anything

1263
01:05:04,320 --> 01:05:06,080
Speaker 5: you like in those games, side or total.

1264
01:05:07,760 --> 01:05:10,120
Speaker 1: The Vama game is interesting here. We've seen a lot

1265
01:05:10,160 --> 01:05:12,520
Speaker 1: of Alabama money come in. I mean, bus of the

1266
01:05:12,600 --> 01:05:15,360
Speaker 1: Vanderbilt money was coming in at you know, eleven and

1267
01:05:15,360 --> 01:05:18,320
Speaker 1: a half. But I think the under is going to

1268
01:05:18,360 --> 01:05:21,680
Speaker 1: be mostly the need in that Vanderbilt game, and so

1269
01:05:21,840 --> 01:05:26,440
Speaker 1: far on Miami versus Florida State, I mean, it's a

1270
01:05:26,440 --> 01:05:28,400
Speaker 1: weird spot for Florida State. They're going to come back

1271
01:05:28,400 --> 01:05:30,520
Speaker 1: and get ready because this is a really good Miami team.

1272
01:05:30,520 --> 01:05:33,600
Speaker 1: But the money's pretty you know, bound fifty to fifty

1273
01:05:33,640 --> 01:05:34,800
Speaker 1: on this spread right now.

1274
01:05:36,480 --> 01:05:40,200
Speaker 9: Another one that's kind of peaking my interest in terms

1275
01:05:40,240 --> 01:05:45,640
Speaker 9: of the trap potential. Iowa State a dog against Cincinnati,

1276
01:05:45,760 --> 01:05:47,520
Speaker 9: right and you see this is one of those games

1277
01:05:47,520 --> 01:05:50,200
Speaker 9: where right right, we talked about this in college basketball

1278
01:05:50,200 --> 01:05:55,000
Speaker 9: a lot where like the unranked home favorite. I don't

1279
01:05:55,000 --> 01:05:57,840
Speaker 9: really know much about Cincinnati this year. I haven't loved

1280
01:05:57,840 --> 01:06:01,880
Speaker 9: what I seen. They stubbed their toe and Iowa States again.

1281
01:06:02,000 --> 01:06:03,480
Speaker 8: This Big twelve is wide open.

1282
01:06:03,640 --> 01:06:05,280
Speaker 9: Either of these teams I think can win it with

1283
01:06:05,360 --> 01:06:07,720
Speaker 9: the numbers telling me Cincinnati is the right side right.

1284
01:06:08,720 --> 01:06:12,280
Speaker 1: Only one name you gotta know on Cincinnati Brendan Soresby.

1285
01:06:12,360 --> 01:06:14,600
Speaker 1: He's been one of the best quarterbacks in the country

1286
01:06:14,640 --> 01:06:19,080
Speaker 1: this year. And yeah, this is that classic spot where

1287
01:06:19,080 --> 01:06:21,640
Speaker 1: the ranked team goes to the unranked team and they're

1288
01:06:21,680 --> 01:06:24,440
Speaker 1: a dog and everyone knows about it now because we're

1289
01:06:24,480 --> 01:06:27,000
Speaker 1: going to be Iowa State here. But it is definitely

1290
01:06:27,520 --> 01:06:30,040
Speaker 1: a weird line. Another name you should know on Cincinnati's

1291
01:06:30,120 --> 01:06:33,880
Speaker 1: Dante Corleone, or has his friends called Don Corleone. He

1292
01:06:34,000 --> 01:06:36,080
Speaker 1: might be up this week for Cincinnati. A big time

1293
01:06:36,160 --> 01:06:36,960
Speaker 1: defensive linemen.

1294
01:06:38,120 --> 01:06:41,480
Speaker 7: All right, jamis obviously Penn State licking their wounds a

1295
01:06:41,520 --> 01:06:44,360
Speaker 7: little bit after the Ducks came to State College and

1296
01:06:44,480 --> 01:06:47,560
Speaker 7: ruined a white out party. They're on the road at UCLA.

1297
01:06:47,640 --> 01:06:52,960
Speaker 7: They're favored by almost was the quarter century mark, the

1298
01:06:53,120 --> 01:06:56,040
Speaker 7: twenty four and a half point of favorites on the

1299
01:06:56,120 --> 01:07:00,160
Speaker 7: road against the Bruins. The Bruins have been horrible, but

1300
01:07:00,200 --> 01:07:01,400
Speaker 7: can they cover this spread?

1301
01:07:03,520 --> 01:07:07,120
Speaker 1: This number does not feel high enough for me to

1302
01:07:07,160 --> 01:07:11,320
Speaker 1: take Ucla. But I mean, and every it's everyone's aware

1303
01:07:11,360 --> 01:07:13,040
Speaker 1: of it. I mean, it's still the Sharks are keeping

1304
01:07:13,080 --> 01:07:14,920
Speaker 1: at twenty four and a half. But I mean, it's

1305
01:07:14,960 --> 01:07:17,760
Speaker 1: it's it's Franklin. It's a big game. They have to

1306
01:07:17,800 --> 01:07:20,600
Speaker 1: win by a lot of points. Public's pilot on ten

1307
01:07:20,680 --> 01:07:22,840
Speaker 1: State this week. It's gonna be it might be another

1308
01:07:22,880 --> 01:07:24,720
Speaker 1: white out at the Rose Bowl this week. It might

1309
01:07:24,760 --> 01:07:26,280
Speaker 1: be just another Penn State home games.

1310
01:07:27,720 --> 01:07:30,960
Speaker 6: All right, Seamus, it's that time the Shamus Special. What

1311
01:07:30,960 --> 01:07:32,600
Speaker 6: do you have circled for us this week?

1312
01:07:34,240 --> 01:07:37,280
Speaker 1: No, you are not getting deja vu. We are going

1313
01:07:37,520 --> 01:07:41,440
Speaker 1: back to Stetson, Florida, and we are taking over fifty

1314
01:07:41,520 --> 01:07:44,960
Speaker 1: nine and a half in Davidson Stepson, these are two

1315
01:07:44,960 --> 01:07:46,960
Speaker 1: awful defenses. I think there's gonna be a lot of

1316
01:07:46,960 --> 01:07:47,960
Speaker 1: scoring in this one.

1317
01:07:48,280 --> 01:07:48,560
Speaker 8: Wow.

1318
01:07:48,600 --> 01:07:52,320
Speaker 9: Okay, I love them so but that's next level. I

1319
01:07:52,320 --> 01:07:54,560
Speaker 9: didn't know Davidson had a football team. I thought they

1320
01:07:54,560 --> 01:07:56,360
Speaker 9: were only Steph Curry basketball.

1321
01:07:56,440 --> 01:07:59,240
Speaker 7: Yeah, that was that's all I knew about them. My god,

1322
01:07:59,440 --> 01:08:01,920
Speaker 7: this is I mean, you know, and and here's the

1323
01:08:02,000 --> 01:08:05,280
Speaker 7: crazy thing about the Shamus Special. You may think, like, well,

1324
01:08:05,400 --> 01:08:09,200
Speaker 7: Davidson and Stetson. I mean, there's golden them hill, Seamus.

1325
01:08:09,240 --> 01:08:12,000
Speaker 7: He's he's pulled some some odd ones out for us

1326
01:08:12,040 --> 01:08:12,880
Speaker 7: that have cashed.

1327
01:08:14,280 --> 01:08:16,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, there were a few on the board today. Zalpo

1328
01:08:16,840 --> 01:08:23,200
Speaker 1: versus Drake. We got date. But Stetson's just calling me back.

1329
01:08:23,280 --> 01:08:25,479
Speaker 1: I don't know what it is down there, but we

1330
01:08:25,640 --> 01:08:27,559
Speaker 1: like the over. We like points in that one today.

1331
01:08:28,200 --> 01:08:30,799
Speaker 5: Okay, all right, well good luck with that play, Seamus,

1332
01:08:30,840 --> 01:08:33,479
Speaker 5: love it, but and uh, enjoy the day, you know,

1333
01:08:33,560 --> 01:08:34,280
Speaker 5: have a great day.

1334
01:08:34,320 --> 01:08:35,280
Speaker 6: We'll catch you soon, Bud.

1335
01:08:35,960 --> 01:08:37,640
Speaker 1: Thanks guys, enjoying the games today.

1336
01:08:37,680 --> 01:08:38,200
Speaker 4: You too. There.

1337
01:08:38,240 --> 01:08:41,000
Speaker 5: He is Seamus McGee, team lead of sports trading at

1338
01:08:41,080 --> 01:08:47,240
Speaker 5: Bett MGM. Yeah, how about his Virginia Calve Calves the

1339
01:08:47,280 --> 01:08:51,479
Speaker 5: Cavaliers the who's they are ranked. They're on the road

1340
01:08:51,520 --> 01:08:55,680
Speaker 5: facing an unranked Louisville in Virginia, like Jared said, is

1341
01:08:55,720 --> 01:08:57,479
Speaker 5: a six and a half point dog.

1342
01:08:57,640 --> 01:08:58,200
Speaker 1: That is.

1343
01:08:59,200 --> 01:09:03,519
Speaker 5: This reminds me of remember when Vanderbilt was favored against

1344
01:09:03,680 --> 01:09:07,040
Speaker 5: South Carolina. This is earlier in the year, and you're like, Wow,

1345
01:09:07,080 --> 01:09:10,559
Speaker 5: South Carolina's ranked and they're they're the dog that that

1346
01:09:10,680 --> 01:09:14,120
Speaker 5: line just stunk to the high heavens. Vandy won like

1347
01:09:14,160 --> 01:09:15,040
Speaker 5: thirty one to seven.

1348
01:09:15,160 --> 01:09:15,599
Speaker 6: You know what I mean.

1349
01:09:15,640 --> 01:09:17,240
Speaker 5: I'm not saying it's gonna be thirty one to seven

1350
01:09:17,280 --> 01:09:19,599
Speaker 5: in this Louisville game, but I'll tell you right now

1351
01:09:19,600 --> 01:09:22,439
Speaker 5: it's gonna be in rapid fire. I'm on Louisville. This

1352
01:09:22,439 --> 01:09:25,200
Speaker 5: this life stinks out a loud Yeah, I mean, it's

1353
01:09:25,720 --> 01:09:28,519
Speaker 5: this is the Baar trap of all traps. If you're like,

1354
01:09:28,600 --> 01:09:31,080
Speaker 5: I get Virginia end points, it's like, yeah, it's not

1355
01:09:31,120 --> 01:09:31,680
Speaker 5: gonna work out.

1356
01:09:31,960 --> 01:09:32,400
Speaker 6: It's just not.

1357
01:09:32,600 --> 01:09:33,240
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1358
01:09:33,560 --> 01:09:38,679
Speaker 7: Virginia, They've been impressive. They've been one of the most

1359
01:09:38,720 --> 01:09:43,599
Speaker 7: efficient teams in the ACC this season so far. They

1360
01:09:44,120 --> 01:09:47,519
Speaker 7: especially offensively, the balance they have between the pass and

1361
01:09:47,720 --> 01:09:50,840
Speaker 7: their ground game, they've been highly effective.

1362
01:09:51,280 --> 01:09:52,600
Speaker 4: Louisville though, I.

1363
01:09:52,880 --> 01:09:55,280
Speaker 7: Mean, they've leaned heavily on their defense, so it's strength

1364
01:09:55,320 --> 01:09:59,400
Speaker 7: against strength, and the numbers show just how effective all

1365
01:09:59,439 --> 01:10:03,000
Speaker 7: of that has been shutting down opponents. I mean, if

1366
01:10:03,040 --> 01:10:07,760
Speaker 7: you look at the stat sheet, they're fantastic. How about this,

1367
01:10:07,880 --> 01:10:11,040
Speaker 7: They've been elite on late downs, allowing conversions all only

1368
01:10:11,160 --> 01:10:15,200
Speaker 7: thirty one plus percent of attempts. That's twelfth in the

1369
01:10:15,240 --> 01:10:19,320
Speaker 7: country right now. They're a good third down defense. And

1370
01:10:19,400 --> 01:10:22,320
Speaker 7: so what is the cure to an offense that has

1371
01:10:22,400 --> 01:10:26,760
Speaker 7: things rolling running into a defense that Stymi's offenses on

1372
01:10:26,840 --> 01:10:31,639
Speaker 7: those critical downs. So strength on strength cards it feels

1373
01:10:31,760 --> 01:10:32,920
Speaker 7: like a good bet today.

1374
01:10:33,960 --> 01:10:37,360
Speaker 9: Yeah, I'll be perfectly honest. I've not scouted Louisville once

1375
01:10:37,400 --> 01:10:40,680
Speaker 9: all year. I haven't watched much film on them. I

1376
01:10:40,720 --> 01:10:43,439
Speaker 9: don't know much about them. I do think Chandler Morris

1377
01:10:43,520 --> 01:10:45,720
Speaker 9: the Virginia quarterbacks playing at a pretty high level right now.

1378
01:10:45,880 --> 01:10:48,080
Speaker 9: That's what I noticed last week in that Friday game

1379
01:10:48,080 --> 01:10:53,599
Speaker 9: against Florida State. Seventy percent completion rate looks really good. Again,

1380
01:10:53,640 --> 01:10:56,000
Speaker 9: this is a Virginia offense that does have a few

1381
01:10:56,000 --> 01:10:58,240
Speaker 9: more bells and whistles than what we're used to seeing.

1382
01:10:58,640 --> 01:11:01,719
Speaker 9: When I look at just a straight matchups with these teams,

1383
01:11:02,280 --> 01:11:04,559
Speaker 9: it does look like Louisville's got a lot of green

1384
01:11:04,600 --> 01:11:05,200
Speaker 9: across the board.

1385
01:11:05,240 --> 01:11:07,320
Speaker 8: Defensively, I think that's their edge in this game.

1386
01:11:08,479 --> 01:11:11,519
Speaker 9: Top fifteen in success right, top twenty five on third downs.

1387
01:11:12,000 --> 01:11:16,120
Speaker 9: They're really good at, you know, preventing explosives and not

1388
01:11:16,160 --> 01:11:18,920
Speaker 9: committing a ton of penalties. So I think this is

1389
01:11:19,000 --> 01:11:22,080
Speaker 9: that's the matchup to watch here. It's that Virginia offense

1390
01:11:22,680 --> 01:11:26,120
Speaker 9: with Morris, who looks better going on the road and

1391
01:11:26,160 --> 01:11:28,639
Speaker 9: trying to solve a Louisville defense that's got a little

1392
01:11:28,640 --> 01:11:29,879
Speaker 9: bit of, I guess.

1393
01:11:29,680 --> 01:11:30,519
Speaker 4: Giddy up to it.

1394
01:11:30,560 --> 01:11:32,000
Speaker 8: But the number under a.

1395
01:11:31,920 --> 01:11:34,599
Speaker 9: Touchdown is kind of like, the fact that this thing

1396
01:11:34,680 --> 01:11:37,400
Speaker 9: is at seven and it's been kind of hovering around

1397
01:11:37,400 --> 01:11:40,000
Speaker 9: seven all week tells me that that's probably a fair number.

1398
01:11:40,040 --> 01:11:41,800
Speaker 9: We saw some seven and a half earlier that got

1399
01:11:41,800 --> 01:11:43,639
Speaker 9: back to Virginia and now it kind of has been

1400
01:11:44,120 --> 01:11:48,400
Speaker 9: moving back towards the seven on the Louisville side. I

1401
01:11:48,439 --> 01:11:52,040
Speaker 9: think Brian nailed it. I think you just you trust

1402
01:11:52,080 --> 01:11:54,439
Speaker 9: that the market is telling you something here with the

1403
01:11:54,560 --> 01:11:57,519
Speaker 9: unranked home favorite. We talk about this trend all the

1404
01:11:57,600 --> 01:11:59,600
Speaker 9: fricking time in college basketball.

1405
01:12:00,040 --> 01:12:02,880
Speaker 8: We don't see a lot in college football, but when

1406
01:12:02,920 --> 01:12:05,080
Speaker 8: you do see it.

1407
01:12:04,320 --> 01:12:07,519
Speaker 9: It raises eyebrows. So this is Louisville or pass one

1408
01:12:07,600 --> 01:12:08,599
Speaker 9: hundred percent of the time.

1409
01:12:08,960 --> 01:12:09,240
Speaker 4: Man.

1410
01:12:09,560 --> 01:12:11,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, And that's the thing. Virginia they allow a lot

1411
01:12:11,720 --> 01:12:16,080
Speaker 5: of big plays. They allow eighty percent of opponents red

1412
01:12:16,160 --> 01:12:19,120
Speaker 5: zone trips to be touchdowns.

1413
01:12:18,720 --> 01:12:20,320
Speaker 6: That's a lot.

1414
01:12:20,600 --> 01:12:22,760
Speaker 5: There's a going many stops in the red zone and

1415
01:12:23,040 --> 01:12:26,800
Speaker 5: this is let down city. The spot that was such

1416
01:12:26,840 --> 01:12:31,160
Speaker 5: an emotional what double overtime against Florida State. Nip and

1417
01:12:31,280 --> 01:12:34,479
Speaker 5: tuck like the field, storming the whole thing. And now

1418
01:12:34,479 --> 01:12:37,840
Speaker 5: you got to gear up hit the road against a

1419
01:12:37,880 --> 01:12:41,480
Speaker 5: team like Rich said in Louisville that is stemying opponents

1420
01:12:41,520 --> 01:12:45,400
Speaker 5: on early downs. That is a tough, tough task at

1421
01:12:45,479 --> 01:12:48,120
Speaker 5: not gonna be easy at all. So yeah, I like Louisville.

1422
01:12:48,160 --> 01:12:51,479
Speaker 5: In this one, we've got Rich Orenberger, Penn State All American,

1423
01:12:51,560 --> 01:12:55,720
Speaker 5: Jared Smith FSR betting analyst. I'm Brian know. Be sure

1424
01:12:55,760 --> 01:12:58,360
Speaker 5: to check out the new looking features in the BEDMGM app.

1425
01:12:58,439 --> 01:13:00,760
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1426
01:13:01,040 --> 01:13:04,360
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1427
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1431
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1432
01:13:18,280 --> 01:13:22,080
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1433
01:13:22,560 --> 01:13:25,120
Speaker 5: All right, coming up next, prop it up? That is right,

1434
01:13:25,200 --> 01:13:28,400
Speaker 5: the prop betting waters. We'll have a canoe will be

1435
01:13:28,479 --> 01:13:31,559
Speaker 5: paddling around comparing notes that comes your way. Next, it's

1436
01:13:31,600 --> 01:13:35,760
Speaker 5: Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by BETMGM. It

1437
01:13:35,800 --> 01:13:40,320
Speaker 5: is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM.

1438
01:13:40,880 --> 01:13:43,320
Speaker 5: With the iHeartRadio App, you can stream us wherever you

1439
01:13:43,360 --> 01:13:45,240
Speaker 5: happen to be. Catch us in all of our Fox

1440
01:13:45,280 --> 01:13:47,800
Speaker 5: Sports Radio shows live twenty four to seven in the

1441
01:13:47,840 --> 01:13:51,599
Speaker 5: new and improved iHeartRadio app. Just search Fox Sports Radio

1442
01:13:51,640 --> 01:13:54,160
Speaker 5: on the app to stream us live all day, every day,

1443
01:13:54,360 --> 01:13:56,639
Speaker 5: and be sure to select Fox Sports Radio as one

1444
01:13:56,640 --> 01:13:59,519
Speaker 5: of your presets in the iHeart app so it'll always

1445
01:13:59,560 --> 01:14:02,439
Speaker 5: pop up at the top of your screen. All right,

1446
01:14:02,560 --> 01:14:03,080
Speaker 5: let's do this.

1447
01:14:05,840 --> 01:14:09,240
Speaker 3: Prop it up player plays.

1448
01:14:08,840 --> 01:14:13,120
Speaker 5: Okay, prop betsko, Lord Jared, we start with you with

1449
01:14:13,240 --> 01:14:13,800
Speaker 5: something you like.

1450
01:14:14,320 --> 01:14:20,480
Speaker 9: Let's talk about saw Bob. Who is saw Bob Sawyer Robertson,

1451
01:14:20,600 --> 01:14:24,519
Speaker 9: quarterback for Baylor. Fun fact, leading passer in the nation

1452
01:14:24,640 --> 01:14:28,160
Speaker 9: this year. Sawyer Robertson a Baylor. Maybe some of you

1453
01:14:28,200 --> 01:14:30,080
Speaker 9: didn't know that, Well, we'll let's educate you right now.

1454
01:14:30,439 --> 01:14:32,479
Speaker 9: We're gonna go over three hundred and one and a

1455
01:14:32,560 --> 01:14:35,719
Speaker 9: hook today on his passing yard total, leave the country

1456
01:14:35,760 --> 01:14:38,240
Speaker 9: with over seventeen hundred passing.

1457
01:14:37,960 --> 01:14:39,719
Speaker 8: Yards this season. Really impressive stuff.

1458
01:14:39,720 --> 01:14:43,400
Speaker 9: He at four nineteen against Auburn, four forty against SMU,

1459
01:14:43,479 --> 01:14:46,000
Speaker 9: three ninety three last week against Okay State. This week

1460
01:14:46,040 --> 01:14:49,200
Speaker 9: he plays Kansas State outside the top one hundred and

1461
01:14:49,240 --> 01:14:52,600
Speaker 9: explosive pass rate defensively, so they are prone to the

1462
01:14:52,600 --> 01:14:56,400
Speaker 9: big play, despite the fact that they have faced Iowa State,

1463
01:14:56,520 --> 01:15:01,080
Speaker 9: North Dakota Army, who doesn't throw Arizona UCF. So I

1464
01:15:01,120 --> 01:15:06,320
Speaker 9: am very bullish on Baylor's passing offense today. None of

1465
01:15:06,360 --> 01:15:08,599
Speaker 9: those teams I just mentioned average two fifty per game.

1466
01:15:09,439 --> 01:15:12,559
Speaker 9: Baylor averages three to fifty per game. No alpha receiver either.

1467
01:15:12,840 --> 01:15:15,559
Speaker 9: Five players with at least sixteen receptions this year, all

1468
01:15:15,640 --> 01:15:18,400
Speaker 9: five of those guys averaging thirteen or more yards per catch.

1469
01:15:18,800 --> 01:15:22,519
Speaker 9: Robertson spreading it around nicely. Saw Bob over three oh

1470
01:15:22,520 --> 01:15:24,400
Speaker 9: one and a hook passing yards today for the Bears.

1471
01:15:25,000 --> 01:15:27,160
Speaker 4: Saw Bob love it all right. Give me.

1472
01:15:27,479 --> 01:15:32,559
Speaker 7: Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia on the road against Alabama the

1473
01:15:32,600 --> 01:15:33,439
Speaker 7: Crimson Tide.

1474
01:15:33,560 --> 01:15:36,840
Speaker 4: I'm taking the over on his rushing yard fifty six

1475
01:15:36,880 --> 01:15:37,360
Speaker 4: and a half.

1476
01:15:37,400 --> 01:15:41,560
Speaker 7: Here's why Alabama struggles against mobile quarterbacks.

1477
01:15:40,760 --> 01:15:41,880
Speaker 4: In the Deboor years.

1478
01:15:41,920 --> 01:15:46,559
Speaker 7: Here also Pavia fearless rusher in the passing game and

1479
01:15:46,640 --> 01:15:49,760
Speaker 7: also planned QB runs. It's part of their offense with

1480
01:15:49,840 --> 01:15:54,080
Speaker 7: him and Alexandra of the backfield. Alabama's porous rush defense,

1481
01:15:54,439 --> 01:15:58,160
Speaker 7: plus the fact that on the perimeter they're especially bad,

1482
01:15:58,479 --> 01:16:01,880
Speaker 7: gives Pavia an opportunity to exploit the edges of a

1483
01:16:02,000 --> 01:16:02,960
Speaker 7: soft defense.

1484
01:16:03,040 --> 01:16:06,080
Speaker 4: They break contain a lot in the run game.

1485
01:16:06,479 --> 01:16:08,559
Speaker 7: I think it gives him an opportunity to move the

1486
01:16:08,640 --> 01:16:10,760
Speaker 7: James pile up some yardage.

1487
01:16:10,920 --> 01:16:14,639
Speaker 4: Give me Pavia over fifty six and a half rushing

1488
01:16:14,720 --> 01:16:16,719
Speaker 4: yards against the Crimson Tide.

1489
01:16:17,760 --> 01:16:21,479
Speaker 5: Okay, I think the Canes are playing some bully ball

1490
01:16:21,560 --> 01:16:26,080
Speaker 5: tonight against Florida State. It's the best, arguably the best

1491
01:16:26,160 --> 01:16:28,479
Speaker 5: offensive line in the country the U.

1492
01:16:28,960 --> 01:16:32,559
Speaker 6: I know you love it, Jared. You've been you know, definitely.

1493
01:16:32,520 --> 01:16:36,200
Speaker 5: Speaking glowingly and deservedly so of those Canes. So I

1494
01:16:36,240 --> 01:16:39,360
Speaker 5: think they're gonna play smash mouth. Mark Fletcher Junior, He's

1495
01:16:39,360 --> 01:16:41,320
Speaker 5: gone over one hundred yards in each of the past

1496
01:16:41,320 --> 01:16:44,080
Speaker 5: two games. One of those games is against Florida. If

1497
01:16:44,080 --> 01:16:48,080
Speaker 5: Florida plays real defense right Florida State's front seven, they've

1498
01:16:48,120 --> 01:16:53,679
Speaker 5: struggled at times against the run and against Miami's offensive line.

1499
01:16:53,960 --> 01:16:56,200
Speaker 5: I just think they're gonna run it early often.

1500
01:16:55,960 --> 01:16:56,759
Speaker 6: Throughout the game.

1501
01:16:57,280 --> 01:17:02,799
Speaker 5: And Jordan Lyle, he's a shifty year quicker guy. He's back,

1502
01:17:03,439 --> 01:17:06,439
Speaker 5: they're expecting him to be one hundred percent. Uh So,

1503
01:17:06,720 --> 01:17:10,439
Speaker 5: like the speed shiftingness all that. Mark Fletcher is just

1504
01:17:11,320 --> 01:17:14,000
Speaker 5: a dump truck, you know, just running you over smash

1505
01:17:14,080 --> 01:17:16,559
Speaker 5: Mouth and then you get Jordan Lyle back there. It's

1506
01:17:16,600 --> 01:17:19,240
Speaker 5: a great one to two combo. So I'm gonna take

1507
01:17:19,280 --> 01:17:21,720
Speaker 5: Carson Beck all that to say this, I'm gonna take

1508
01:17:21,760 --> 01:17:24,960
Speaker 5: Carson Beck under his passing yards, which is that two

1509
01:17:25,000 --> 01:17:25,799
Speaker 5: thirty six.

1510
01:17:25,600 --> 01:17:26,240
Speaker 4: And a half.

1511
01:17:26,840 --> 01:17:29,160
Speaker 5: I just think the Kanes rely more on their running game.

1512
01:17:29,720 --> 01:17:32,240
Speaker 5: If you're relying on the running game, you're chewing up clock.

1513
01:17:32,720 --> 01:17:34,800
Speaker 5: There's not that much time left in the game if

1514
01:17:34,800 --> 01:17:37,680
Speaker 5: you're running it consistently, and I think they will, so

1515
01:17:38,040 --> 01:17:41,000
Speaker 5: I think Carson Beck will be effective tonight. But he

1516
01:17:41,040 --> 01:17:43,559
Speaker 5: has struggled in bigger games, at least he did last

1517
01:17:43,600 --> 01:17:47,920
Speaker 5: year with Georgia, so it could be the same thing.

1518
01:17:48,240 --> 01:17:50,320
Speaker 5: And when you have more of a strength in the

1519
01:17:50,400 --> 01:17:52,640
Speaker 5: running game, more consistent, I think they're gonna rely on

1520
01:17:52,640 --> 01:17:55,320
Speaker 5: that throughout the game. So I'll take Carson Beck under

1521
01:17:55,360 --> 01:17:57,200
Speaker 5: two thirty six and a half passing yards.

1522
01:17:57,479 --> 01:18:00,360
Speaker 7: You know, I haven't looked at the number, but just

1523
01:18:00,400 --> 01:18:04,719
Speaker 7: speaking of passing yardage and where my brain is going

1524
01:18:04,760 --> 01:18:07,280
Speaker 7: on some of these spreads. I took the Penn State

1525
01:18:08,000 --> 01:18:13,120
Speaker 7: side in the game against UCLA, their favorite twenty four

1526
01:18:13,200 --> 01:18:15,920
Speaker 7: and a half on the road. The other part of that,

1527
01:18:15,920 --> 01:18:19,679
Speaker 7: that narrative is all the things Drew Aller can't do,

1528
01:18:20,400 --> 01:18:23,400
Speaker 7: and so in games like that, especially with a coach

1529
01:18:23,520 --> 01:18:26,800
Speaker 7: like James Franklin, who you know reads the paper, I

1530
01:18:26,840 --> 01:18:29,519
Speaker 7: feel like this could be a big passing game for

1531
01:18:29,600 --> 01:18:32,679
Speaker 7: Drew Aler. So I don't know what his yardage total is.

1532
01:18:32,560 --> 01:18:34,439
Speaker 6: But I think it's two twenty four and a half.

1533
01:18:34,520 --> 01:18:36,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would take over. I would take the over

1534
01:18:36,920 --> 01:18:37,439
Speaker 4: on that one.

1535
01:18:37,800 --> 01:18:40,920
Speaker 5: Well, you know what reminds me of It reminds me

1536
01:18:41,000 --> 01:18:44,040
Speaker 5: of an arch Manning spot. Remember when he had like

1537
01:18:44,040 --> 01:18:47,760
Speaker 5: like eleven straight incompletions or something like that. The next

1538
01:18:47,800 --> 01:18:50,839
Speaker 5: game he went crazy. He threw over three hundred yards.

1539
01:18:50,840 --> 01:18:52,479
Speaker 5: So I agree with you. I think this could be

1540
01:18:52,560 --> 01:18:55,680
Speaker 5: an allur spot to you gotta get him some confidence.

1541
01:18:55,720 --> 01:19:00,120
Speaker 5: What better way than to do it today against the Bruins.

1542
01:19:00,160 --> 01:19:00,920
Speaker 4: No doubt about it.

1543
01:19:00,920 --> 01:19:03,600
Speaker 7: It's just it's it's the Yeah, I'm Jared, you know

1544
01:19:03,680 --> 01:19:07,679
Speaker 7: this too, the dead cat bounce, so to speak, on

1545
01:19:07,760 --> 01:19:11,840
Speaker 7: some of the spreads and odds we talk, Well, it

1546
01:19:11,880 --> 01:19:16,160
Speaker 7: works with player props too, and confidence boosters, slumpbusters, so

1547
01:19:16,240 --> 01:19:19,960
Speaker 7: to speak. They matter for building confidence with quarterbacks.

1548
01:19:20,240 --> 01:19:21,800
Speaker 8: I agree. But and here's the thing.

1549
01:19:21,880 --> 01:19:23,519
Speaker 9: It goes back to exactly what you said in the

1550
01:19:23,560 --> 01:19:25,880
Speaker 9: last segment when we were talking about the game total

1551
01:19:25,960 --> 01:19:28,640
Speaker 9: in Florida and Texas and how it relates to how

1552
01:19:28,640 --> 01:19:31,559
Speaker 9: you feel about these lines and the spreads and the props.

1553
01:19:32,560 --> 01:19:34,720
Speaker 8: The total in pens that UCLA is forty eight and

1554
01:19:34,760 --> 01:19:35,080
Speaker 8: a half.

1555
01:19:35,920 --> 01:19:38,920
Speaker 9: So it just doesn't lend to a game that we

1556
01:19:39,000 --> 01:19:41,040
Speaker 9: expect to be very high scoring. Now does that mean

1557
01:19:41,080 --> 01:19:42,639
Speaker 9: there's not gonna be a lot of yards? And then

1558
01:19:42,640 --> 01:19:44,760
Speaker 9: Penn State just fails in the red zone, kicks field

1559
01:19:44,760 --> 01:19:46,680
Speaker 9: goals and the game still stays under but aller goes over.

1560
01:19:46,720 --> 01:19:48,800
Speaker 8: No, I could see that as a reasonable path.

1561
01:19:49,200 --> 01:19:53,760
Speaker 9: But that's why I like the sabab over because that

1562
01:19:53,960 --> 01:19:59,120
Speaker 9: game I love that. Correlational to your point with the total, Yeah,

1563
01:19:59,120 --> 01:20:02,759
Speaker 9: because the Kansas State Baylor total is sixty. So again,

1564
01:20:03,000 --> 01:20:05,240
Speaker 9: and this is where again we're not getting two in

1565
01:20:05,240 --> 01:20:06,800
Speaker 9: the weeds with the gambling stuff. But we want to

1566
01:20:06,840 --> 01:20:08,760
Speaker 9: mention this stuff because I think it can help the

1567
01:20:08,880 --> 01:20:12,280
Speaker 9: average fan. The average better look at these lines with

1568
01:20:12,320 --> 01:20:16,640
Speaker 9: a little bit more depth and you know, intellectual advancement.

1569
01:20:17,000 --> 01:20:19,920
Speaker 9: You're looking at a game total of sixty all right,

1570
01:20:19,960 --> 01:20:21,400
Speaker 9: Well we expect a lot of points in a lot.

1571
01:20:21,280 --> 01:20:23,120
Speaker 8: Of yards in this game. Let's look to the propovers.

1572
01:20:23,439 --> 01:20:26,200
Speaker 9: We're looking at a Florida Texas total forty two and

1573
01:20:26,240 --> 01:20:28,040
Speaker 9: a half, pence at UCLA total of forty eight and

1574
01:20:28,080 --> 01:20:30,160
Speaker 9: a half. All right, probably going to be a more

1575
01:20:30,200 --> 01:20:32,240
Speaker 9: defensive minded games. So if I'm looking at the props

1576
01:20:32,240 --> 01:20:34,960
Speaker 9: in those games, I probably want to look under first.

1577
01:20:35,000 --> 01:20:37,960
Speaker 9: So that doesn't mean that Aller can't go over, but

1578
01:20:38,040 --> 01:20:41,080
Speaker 9: I just think directionally. When you're looking at a game

1579
01:20:41,120 --> 01:20:43,960
Speaker 9: total at forty eight and a half, I just don't

1580
01:20:43,960 --> 01:20:45,840
Speaker 9: think there's going to be a ton of points, right.

1581
01:20:46,320 --> 01:20:49,320
Speaker 5: I will say this like sometimes gambling can help your

1582
01:20:49,320 --> 01:20:50,240
Speaker 5: football interest.

1583
01:20:50,640 --> 01:20:52,360
Speaker 6: Right, We're thinking this Penn State game.

1584
01:20:52,760 --> 01:20:55,080
Speaker 5: If Penn State gets up by three touchdowns, you might

1585
01:20:55,160 --> 01:20:58,240
Speaker 5: kind of zone out, But if you're invested on minus

1586
01:20:58,280 --> 01:21:00,840
Speaker 5: twenty four and a half, you're more I'm more locked

1587
01:21:00,880 --> 01:21:04,400
Speaker 5: in but I think also, like ask yourself this, if

1588
01:21:04,400 --> 01:21:07,320
Speaker 5: they're up by three touchdowns, are they gonna continue to

1589
01:21:07,400 --> 01:21:09,439
Speaker 5: throw it? I think they should. They got to get

1590
01:21:09,520 --> 01:21:12,479
Speaker 5: drew Aller some confidence. But that's not even a gambling thing.

1591
01:21:12,520 --> 01:21:14,760
Speaker 5: That's a football thing that could keep you locked into

1592
01:21:14,800 --> 01:21:15,200
Speaker 5: that game.

1593
01:21:15,240 --> 01:21:15,559
Speaker 4: Today.

1594
01:21:17,640 --> 01:21:18,599
Speaker 6: Oh what is going on?

1595
01:21:18,680 --> 01:21:22,400
Speaker 5: Happy Saturday to you as we are one hour away

1596
01:21:22,439 --> 01:21:26,840
Speaker 5: from kickoff here on a college football Saturday, we're looking

1597
01:21:26,880 --> 01:21:30,720
Speaker 5: forward to one of the games of the evening. Miami

1598
01:21:31,360 --> 01:21:34,920
Speaker 5: number three in the country against number eighteen Florida State.

1599
01:21:35,080 --> 01:21:35,640
Speaker 4: Man.

1600
01:21:35,960 --> 01:21:38,040
Speaker 5: This team came up empty last week? Is it a

1601
01:21:38,040 --> 01:21:39,840
Speaker 5: good time to back them this week? That would be

1602
01:21:40,040 --> 01:21:43,559
Speaker 5: your Florida State Seminoles. They did not get to win

1603
01:21:43,600 --> 01:21:46,479
Speaker 5: on the road and double overtime against Virginia. That was

1604
01:21:46,479 --> 01:21:48,519
Speaker 5: a tough one, right, look like they're gonna have a

1605
01:21:48,560 --> 01:21:52,880
Speaker 5: game tying touchdown and the ball was bobbled, guy comes

1606
01:21:52,920 --> 01:21:55,080
Speaker 5: down with it but out of bounds and they end

1607
01:21:55,160 --> 01:21:57,920
Speaker 5: up losing that game. That was a crazy back and forth,

1608
01:21:58,640 --> 01:22:02,520
Speaker 5: crazy pass by Astlanos to get the game into overtime

1609
01:22:02,960 --> 01:22:05,920
Speaker 5: and then it doesn't work out once it gets there.

1610
01:22:06,360 --> 01:22:09,920
Speaker 5: So tough loss for the Seminoles. I think we kind

1611
01:22:09,920 --> 01:22:13,320
Speaker 5: of lost out as a whole here in college football.

1612
01:22:13,360 --> 01:22:15,360
Speaker 6: If these are two undefeated teams.

1613
01:22:15,040 --> 01:22:18,639
Speaker 5: This is a monster matchup, then it's still a big matchup.

1614
01:22:18,680 --> 01:22:22,080
Speaker 5: I'm still excited for it. But if it's undefeated Miami

1615
01:22:22,120 --> 01:22:24,880
Speaker 5: against undefeated Florida State, man, that just takes you back

1616
01:22:24,880 --> 01:22:27,080
Speaker 5: to your youth, right, and that's not what we have.

1617
01:22:27,120 --> 01:22:28,559
Speaker 5: So that's a little bit unfortunate here.

1618
01:22:29,160 --> 01:22:29,400
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1619
01:22:29,560 --> 01:22:33,839
Speaker 7: You know, after a full month basically that kept Miami

1620
01:22:34,560 --> 01:22:37,519
Speaker 7: at home against top tier opponents, they go on the

1621
01:22:37,640 --> 01:22:41,880
Speaker 7: road to face the Seminoles in an important opener and

1622
01:22:42,000 --> 01:22:47,200
Speaker 7: conference play. And this is a talented offense. You know,

1623
01:22:47,240 --> 01:22:51,439
Speaker 7: you have the transfer quarterback Carson Back from Georgia who's

1624
01:22:51,520 --> 01:22:55,559
Speaker 7: got this offense finishing, drives well, and he's protected by

1625
01:22:55,560 --> 01:22:59,040
Speaker 7: a very talented group up front, good pass blockers. With

1626
01:22:59,200 --> 01:23:04,000
Speaker 7: this Miami team, this is arguably the best Miami team. Actually,

1627
01:23:04,280 --> 01:23:07,400
Speaker 7: it's undoubtedly the best Miami team. Christ de Ball's had

1628
01:23:07,400 --> 01:23:12,000
Speaker 7: since he's taken over down there. And I think defensively,

1629
01:23:12,080 --> 01:23:15,960
Speaker 7: they've they've picked it up a notch or more than that.

1630
01:23:16,760 --> 01:23:21,200
Speaker 7: Their new defensive coordinator has really gentrified and retro fitted

1631
01:23:21,240 --> 01:23:23,960
Speaker 7: this defense to play toward the strengths of the players

1632
01:23:24,000 --> 01:23:27,120
Speaker 7: he has, and it's showed up on the stat sheet.

1633
01:23:27,200 --> 01:23:30,599
Speaker 4: And so Miami, even though they take the show on the.

1634
01:23:30,600 --> 01:23:35,960
Speaker 7: Road against differ competition, this is a good Miami team

1635
01:23:35,960 --> 01:23:39,840
Speaker 7: and they belong firmly seeded in the national conversation here

1636
01:23:39,920 --> 01:23:40,360
Speaker 7: this year.

1637
01:23:41,320 --> 01:23:43,720
Speaker 9: Yeah, I'll be honest, when I first started looking at

1638
01:23:43,760 --> 01:23:46,200
Speaker 9: this game, I didn't have a great feel for it.

1639
01:23:46,240 --> 01:23:49,120
Speaker 9: And here's why. So my process will peak behind the curtain.

1640
01:23:49,120 --> 01:23:51,960
Speaker 9: My process. When I'm trying to find an edge betting

1641
01:23:51,960 --> 01:23:55,559
Speaker 9: a game, I'm trying to find strength on weakness. That's

1642
01:23:55,600 --> 01:23:57,599
Speaker 9: always what I'm trying to find. Is there a part

1643
01:23:57,640 --> 01:24:00,720
Speaker 9: of your game that you excel in that the other

1644
01:24:00,840 --> 01:24:03,880
Speaker 9: team doesn't. That's always when I'm going through stats, when

1645
01:24:03,880 --> 01:24:07,280
Speaker 9: I'm going through film and i'm watching, when i'm absorbing,

1646
01:24:07,680 --> 01:24:09,479
Speaker 9: that's the first thing I try to find. I couldn't

1647
01:24:09,479 --> 01:24:12,280
Speaker 9: find it in this game. It's strength on strength right.

1648
01:24:12,360 --> 01:24:14,559
Speaker 9: Florida State loves to run the ball. Their top ten

1649
01:24:14,600 --> 01:24:18,000
Speaker 9: and explosive run rate. Castiani's a great running quarterback. They're

1650
01:24:18,000 --> 01:24:20,280
Speaker 9: great on third downs because they're typically in third and

1651
01:24:20,360 --> 01:24:23,519
Speaker 9: manageable because they're great running the ball. Teams that usually

1652
01:24:23,600 --> 01:24:26,519
Speaker 9: run it well, don't get into second and ten, third

1653
01:24:26,520 --> 01:24:29,960
Speaker 9: and eight. They're usually in second and six, third and two. Well,

1654
01:24:30,240 --> 01:24:32,519
Speaker 9: that's what Miami does well. The run defense is the

1655
01:24:32,520 --> 01:24:35,160
Speaker 9: best part of their game. Twenty percent of runs against

1656
01:24:35,200 --> 01:24:38,639
Speaker 9: Miami this year stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.

1657
01:24:38,680 --> 01:24:40,800
Speaker 9: So I'm trying to get to the next level of

1658
01:24:40,840 --> 01:24:43,799
Speaker 9: the handicap here, and I'm like, Okay, you've got Florida

1659
01:24:43,800 --> 01:24:45,600
Speaker 9: State off the loss. I like the bounce back, but

1660
01:24:45,640 --> 01:24:50,040
Speaker 9: you've got Miami off the by with some rest. So

1661
01:24:50,080 --> 01:24:54,080
Speaker 9: it's like, again, like it's kind of conflicting elements here

1662
01:24:54,120 --> 01:24:56,360
Speaker 9: when I'm trying to handicap this game. The one thing

1663
01:24:56,400 --> 01:25:00,880
Speaker 9: about Castianos that scares me though, if he gets into

1664
01:25:00,920 --> 01:25:04,040
Speaker 9: a negative game script. When you look at a quarterback,

1665
01:25:04,120 --> 01:25:07,519
Speaker 9: you think, oh, if they throw for more yards, their

1666
01:25:07,560 --> 01:25:11,120
Speaker 9: team typically does well. That makes sense, right, Wrong, It's

1667
01:25:11,160 --> 01:25:14,240
Speaker 9: actually the opposite with Castiano's when his or when he

1668
01:25:14,280 --> 01:25:16,720
Speaker 9: throws for two hundred and forty or more yards, his

1669
01:25:16,840 --> 01:25:19,959
Speaker 9: teams are one and five. Why, he's a running quarterback,

1670
01:25:20,120 --> 01:25:22,120
Speaker 9: and when you're throwing it more with a running quarterback,

1671
01:25:22,160 --> 01:25:23,880
Speaker 9: that typically means you're losing the game.

1672
01:25:24,000 --> 01:25:25,880
Speaker 8: So again, a little bit of.

1673
01:25:26,560 --> 01:25:29,840
Speaker 9: I would say back and forth nature to trying to

1674
01:25:29,920 --> 01:25:33,040
Speaker 9: find an edge in this game. I think the crowd

1675
01:25:33,360 --> 01:25:36,640
Speaker 9: and the factor of Miami being on the road for

1676
01:25:36,680 --> 01:25:40,759
Speaker 9: the first time this season might be the one edge

1677
01:25:40,800 --> 01:25:42,360
Speaker 9: to me to bet Florida State.

1678
01:25:42,439 --> 01:25:44,120
Speaker 8: But I'll be honest, this one is kind of a

1679
01:25:44,120 --> 01:25:44,599
Speaker 8: toss up.

1680
01:25:45,600 --> 01:25:45,800
Speaker 4: Man.

1681
01:25:45,840 --> 01:25:47,760
Speaker 5: I'll tell you, if you're looking for an edge, it's

1682
01:25:47,920 --> 01:25:51,960
Speaker 5: Miami's running game against that defensive line of Florida State.

1683
01:25:52,600 --> 01:25:54,599
Speaker 5: Because just look at what happened last week.

1684
01:25:54,680 --> 01:25:55,599
Speaker 6: You look at Florida State.

1685
01:25:55,640 --> 01:25:58,679
Speaker 5: They gave up two hundred and eleven rushing yards to

1686
01:25:58,680 --> 01:26:02,880
Speaker 5: eleven against Virginia and four touchdowns on the ground, and

1687
01:26:02,960 --> 01:26:05,439
Speaker 5: they were down a ton of offensive linemen, like seven

1688
01:26:05,439 --> 01:26:08,559
Speaker 5: of their top ten offensive linemen were out, and Virginia

1689
01:26:08,640 --> 01:26:10,960
Speaker 5: still ran the ball on Florida State. What do you

1690
01:26:10,960 --> 01:26:13,439
Speaker 5: think Miami's gonna do. Miami is the best offensive line

1691
01:26:13,439 --> 01:26:16,839
Speaker 5: in the country. They are going to ground and pound

1692
01:26:16,960 --> 01:26:20,200
Speaker 5: Florida State. And unless you know the crowd gives them

1693
01:26:20,240 --> 01:26:23,679
Speaker 5: some crazy juice or like Carson Beck is good enough.

1694
01:26:23,720 --> 01:26:26,240
Speaker 5: You can't just walk all these players into the box

1695
01:26:26,360 --> 01:26:28,200
Speaker 5: and dare Carson Beck to beat you.

1696
01:26:28,360 --> 01:26:28,840
Speaker 4: He will.

1697
01:26:29,280 --> 01:26:33,000
Speaker 5: He's good enough to keep your defense honest and compared

1698
01:26:33,040 --> 01:26:35,679
Speaker 5: to you know, Virginia last week, who had a lot

1699
01:26:35,720 --> 01:26:40,080
Speaker 5: of success against Florida State's defensive line, I just don't

1700
01:26:40,120 --> 01:26:43,240
Speaker 5: see how Miami doesn't have a lot of success running

1701
01:26:43,320 --> 01:26:47,280
Speaker 5: the ball. Mark Fletcher Junior is a wrecking ball, and

1702
01:26:47,320 --> 01:26:50,480
Speaker 5: it looks like they're getting Jordan lyleback who's quicker, shiftier.

1703
01:26:51,280 --> 01:26:54,720
Speaker 5: I think Miami's ground game is a huge problem for

1704
01:26:54,800 --> 01:26:56,040
Speaker 5: Florida State in this game.

1705
01:26:56,640 --> 01:27:00,360
Speaker 7: Yeah, And I would argue maybe similarly Florda to State

1706
01:27:00,400 --> 01:27:04,240
Speaker 7: to Miami's defense. Miami, if they struggle, they don't have

1707
01:27:04,280 --> 01:27:08,640
Speaker 7: a lot of glaring issues, you know, overall offensively and defensively,

1708
01:27:08,680 --> 01:27:12,719
Speaker 7: but if they struggle anywhere, not a great tackling team.

1709
01:27:13,280 --> 01:27:16,280
Speaker 7: And so you mentioned it, Jared. With Casianos being a

1710
01:27:16,360 --> 01:27:19,439
Speaker 7: running quarterback, I do think he'll have to rely on

1711
01:27:19,520 --> 01:27:22,840
Speaker 7: the throw here in this game. Because Miami's stout against

1712
01:27:22,920 --> 01:27:25,639
Speaker 7: inside zone. They're gonna stop a lot of the early

1713
01:27:25,720 --> 01:27:28,280
Speaker 7: down run game that the Seminoles are going to try

1714
01:27:28,360 --> 01:27:29,000
Speaker 7: to get to.

1715
01:27:29,600 --> 01:27:31,360
Speaker 4: But if they start exploiting the.

1716
01:27:31,360 --> 01:27:36,960
Speaker 7: Edges of this defense with Cassianos involved in in the

1717
01:27:37,040 --> 01:27:40,680
Speaker 7: run game, it could get to the point where we

1718
01:27:40,800 --> 01:27:45,439
Speaker 7: see Miami giving up some explosives on misstackles because it's

1719
01:27:45,479 --> 01:27:48,040
Speaker 7: really been their only achilles heel all season long. So

1720
01:27:49,200 --> 01:27:52,160
Speaker 7: I like this game being a back and forth battle

1721
01:27:52,160 --> 01:27:53,720
Speaker 7: a little bit. And I do think we're going to

1722
01:27:53,760 --> 01:27:57,240
Speaker 7: see explosives on the ground both way, both ways, not

1723
01:27:57,280 --> 01:27:59,920
Speaker 7: only for Miami's offense, but for the seminals as well.

1724
01:28:00,360 --> 01:28:04,879
Speaker 9: M Yeah, I'll give you some some notes on Miami's

1725
01:28:04,960 --> 01:28:07,960
Speaker 9: offensive line. I've talked about it before. I think this

1726
01:28:08,080 --> 01:28:09,919
Speaker 9: is the best offensive line in the country.

1727
01:28:10,080 --> 01:28:10,720
Speaker 4: I really do.

1728
01:28:11,120 --> 01:28:12,920
Speaker 9: I thought it was Penn State, but I guess I

1729
01:28:12,960 --> 01:28:15,360
Speaker 9: have to reevaluate that opinion based off of last week.

1730
01:28:15,360 --> 01:28:17,840
Speaker 9: Although that right guard, that Vega kid, he keeps getting

1731
01:28:17,840 --> 01:28:19,120
Speaker 9: better every week. I think he's going to be a

1732
01:28:19,160 --> 01:28:23,240
Speaker 9: top fifteen pick. Guards typically, Sorry, Rich, aren't you highly

1733
01:28:23,280 --> 01:28:25,880
Speaker 9: coveted in the high rounds or the high picks of

1734
01:28:25,920 --> 01:28:27,639
Speaker 9: the draft, But I do think he's one of the best.

1735
01:28:27,640 --> 01:28:30,240
Speaker 9: Speaking of guards, and as Cooper right guard for Miami

1736
01:28:30,320 --> 01:28:32,000
Speaker 9: six six, three fifty, he.

1737
01:28:32,120 --> 01:28:34,320
Speaker 8: Blocks through the echo of the whistle.

1738
01:28:34,400 --> 01:28:37,600
Speaker 9: He is as nasty of a run blocker as you

1739
01:28:37,640 --> 01:28:40,920
Speaker 9: will see, chest up and brings the pain.

1740
01:28:41,160 --> 01:28:41,800
Speaker 8: The right tackle.

1741
01:28:41,840 --> 01:28:44,760
Speaker 9: Francis Mayoga, also first round pick attacking the second level.

1742
01:28:44,800 --> 01:28:47,080
Speaker 9: You don't see tackles get to the second level too often.

1743
01:28:47,120 --> 01:28:49,000
Speaker 9: He's a guy that has the athleticism to do so.

1744
01:28:49,479 --> 01:28:52,639
Speaker 9: And then the left side of the line, they're kind

1745
01:28:52,640 --> 01:28:54,720
Speaker 9: of going through a little bit of renovation with the

1746
01:28:54,800 --> 01:28:57,240
Speaker 9: left side of their offensive line, but it's improving every week.

1747
01:28:57,280 --> 01:29:01,080
Speaker 9: And I love Mark Fletcher six five, big back with speed.

1748
01:29:01,360 --> 01:29:05,520
Speaker 9: So this is a team that is nasty running the football.

1749
01:29:05,840 --> 01:29:09,160
Speaker 9: I agree with you, Brian. That is the edge in

1750
01:29:09,439 --> 01:29:12,479
Speaker 9: this game for Miami if they if they can run

1751
01:29:12,479 --> 01:29:15,360
Speaker 9: it effectively, if they can stay in a positive game script,

1752
01:29:15,439 --> 01:29:18,680
Speaker 9: if Carson Beck doesn't make the big mistake. He's been

1753
01:29:18,720 --> 01:29:22,599
Speaker 9: prone to interceptions sometimes on the road especially. I think

1754
01:29:22,640 --> 01:29:25,679
Speaker 9: the edge for Miami in this game is that offensive line.

1755
01:29:25,720 --> 01:29:28,559
Speaker 9: You don't see O lines used as a weapon too often.

1756
01:29:28,600 --> 01:29:30,920
Speaker 9: The Detroit Lions do it all the time. That is

1757
01:29:30,920 --> 01:29:33,080
Speaker 9: their mo They use their O line as a weapon.

1758
01:29:33,360 --> 01:29:36,519
Speaker 9: Miami has an offensive line as talented, if not more,

1759
01:29:37,160 --> 01:29:40,599
Speaker 9: in terms of relative speaking. Obviously they're pros to collegiate athletes,

1760
01:29:40,640 --> 01:29:43,240
Speaker 9: but in terms of the relative talent on the offensive

1761
01:29:43,280 --> 01:29:45,720
Speaker 9: line for Miami compared to the defensive lines that they

1762
01:29:45,760 --> 01:29:47,880
Speaker 9: typically face in college football, I think is on that

1763
01:29:48,000 --> 01:29:50,680
Speaker 9: level where last year you saw the Lions, we're you know,

1764
01:29:50,800 --> 01:29:54,559
Speaker 9: using offensive lines like you know, basically like a spread

1765
01:29:54,600 --> 01:29:57,479
Speaker 9: offense almost it's crazy. So I think this Miami o

1766
01:29:57,600 --> 01:29:59,320
Speaker 9: line does have an edge. I think Fletcher's are really

1767
01:29:59,320 --> 01:30:01,880
Speaker 9: good back and I think Miami, if they run it effectively,

1768
01:30:01,960 --> 01:30:04,040
Speaker 9: that is the recipe to go on the road in

1769
01:30:04,080 --> 01:30:05,720
Speaker 9: a tough environment and get a big win.

1770
01:30:06,600 --> 01:30:06,880
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1771
01:30:06,920 --> 01:30:08,919
Speaker 6: And I also think you look at Miami.

1772
01:30:09,200 --> 01:30:13,000
Speaker 5: They're number thirteen in the nation in rush defense, and

1773
01:30:13,080 --> 01:30:15,520
Speaker 5: you think about that. If they're able to play effective

1774
01:30:15,600 --> 01:30:18,920
Speaker 5: rush defense against Florida State, that to me is like

1775
01:30:19,000 --> 01:30:21,640
Speaker 5: taking away their fastball, you know what I mean, Like,

1776
01:30:21,960 --> 01:30:24,960
Speaker 5: think about we're in the baseball playoffs. Now let's get

1777
01:30:24,960 --> 01:30:27,600
Speaker 5: some Tarrek Schooble action in here, right. Shout out to

1778
01:30:27,680 --> 01:30:32,080
Speaker 5: Chris Purfett, or technical producer the Tigers Van. If a

1779
01:30:32,160 --> 01:30:34,800
Speaker 5: team is just hitting Schoobol's fastball, He's like, that's a

1780
01:30:34,880 --> 01:30:37,639
Speaker 5: major part of my arsenal. Over, he still has other

1781
01:30:37,680 --> 01:30:40,120
Speaker 5: bitches and he can still be effective. And I give

1782
01:30:40,479 --> 01:30:43,200
Speaker 5: Castellanos his credit because he can throw it. They're not

1783
01:30:43,680 --> 01:30:47,000
Speaker 5: just a rushing attack, but that's their bread and butter.

1784
01:30:47,360 --> 01:30:51,280
Speaker 5: That's their fastball. And if Miami is playing good sound

1785
01:30:51,439 --> 01:30:56,800
Speaker 5: rush defense, that is really problematic for Florida State when

1786
01:30:56,840 --> 01:30:59,519
Speaker 5: they might have to match points. Like Miami's gonna score points,

1787
01:30:59,600 --> 01:31:01,200
Speaker 5: I think they're going to run the ball down Florida

1788
01:31:01,200 --> 01:31:04,360
Speaker 5: State's throat. And if Florida State can't turn around and

1789
01:31:04,400 --> 01:31:07,040
Speaker 5: then run it effectively against Miami, I think they're really

1790
01:31:07,080 --> 01:31:08,120
Speaker 5: going to be up against it.

1791
01:31:08,600 --> 01:31:12,000
Speaker 7: Yeah, let's get a little bit nerdy here, just to

1792
01:31:12,080 --> 01:31:14,639
Speaker 7: just to bring some of the like, let's go like

1793
01:31:14,680 --> 01:31:19,000
Speaker 7: the like the hard nose, you know, you know football

1794
01:31:19,080 --> 01:31:22,080
Speaker 7: fans under the tenth for a moment, You're gonna see

1795
01:31:22,720 --> 01:31:25,280
Speaker 7: a lot and I mean a lot of cover three

1796
01:31:26,120 --> 01:31:30,080
Speaker 7: from from this Miami defense, which means that they're trying

1797
01:31:30,120 --> 01:31:33,160
Speaker 7: to avoid the big play downfield. They like to take

1798
01:31:33,200 --> 01:31:35,800
Speaker 7: the roof off of the offense, so to speak. But

1799
01:31:35,920 --> 01:31:38,720
Speaker 7: that's okay because the Seminoles, like you mentioned, they want

1800
01:31:38,760 --> 01:31:42,559
Speaker 7: to rely more on the run game. But the problem

1801
01:31:42,680 --> 01:31:46,599
Speaker 7: is against coverages where there's three deep.

1802
01:31:47,080 --> 01:31:48,960
Speaker 4: Florida State has done a great job.

1803
01:31:49,000 --> 01:31:52,519
Speaker 7: They have a high success rate, nearing sixty percent of

1804
01:31:52,600 --> 01:31:56,439
Speaker 7: completions against that coverage. Likewise, what the Seminoles are going

1805
01:31:56,520 --> 01:31:59,240
Speaker 7: to do defensively is sit back there in quarters coverage?

1806
01:31:59,479 --> 01:32:02,879
Speaker 7: What is car and beck highest success rate against coverage

1807
01:32:02,920 --> 01:32:07,360
Speaker 7: wise quarters? So you see strength on or I should

1808
01:32:07,400 --> 01:32:11,559
Speaker 7: say you see strength on weakness with coverage versus QB

1809
01:32:12,000 --> 01:32:16,240
Speaker 7: and how they react to what they're seeing. Defensively, there

1810
01:32:16,280 --> 01:32:20,599
Speaker 7: are certain things that quarterbacks are just more comfortable throwing

1811
01:32:20,640 --> 01:32:22,760
Speaker 7: to because it's what they saw more of in high

1812
01:32:22,800 --> 01:32:25,080
Speaker 7: school or it's what they've been exposed to more of

1813
01:32:25,320 --> 01:32:28,280
Speaker 7: at practice or over the course of their collegiate career.

1814
01:32:28,680 --> 01:32:32,360
Speaker 7: Clearly Casianos has an easier time looking at man coverage

1815
01:32:32,520 --> 01:32:33,960
Speaker 7: and finding the open receiver.

1816
01:32:34,280 --> 01:32:37,559
Speaker 4: He throws open his receiver, Carson Beck.

1817
01:32:38,000 --> 01:32:41,000
Speaker 7: He does a nice job finding the voids in the

1818
01:32:41,120 --> 01:32:46,800
Speaker 7: zone when you have more deep zone players. He's going

1819
01:32:46,840 --> 01:32:49,400
Speaker 7: to throw in front of the defense. He's going to

1820
01:32:49,439 --> 01:32:52,920
Speaker 7: get yards after catch by setting up his players with

1821
01:32:53,280 --> 01:32:56,040
Speaker 7: good timing routes. And so this is going to be

1822
01:32:56,080 --> 01:32:58,040
Speaker 7: a little bit of a war of attrition on both

1823
01:32:58,080 --> 01:33:01,519
Speaker 7: sides defensively in the passing game, because you're going against

1824
01:33:01,600 --> 01:33:04,759
Speaker 7: quarterbacks who are comfortable throwing against the coverage as you present.

1825
01:33:05,240 --> 01:33:07,720
Speaker 9: Yeah, I took a little Florida State this week at

1826
01:33:07,720 --> 01:33:08,280
Speaker 9: four and a half.

1827
01:33:08,320 --> 01:33:10,960
Speaker 8: It's not a four now, I still would consider betting it.

1828
01:33:11,439 --> 01:33:16,479
Speaker 9: I think it's just I struggle with laying numbers on

1829
01:33:16,520 --> 01:33:18,160
Speaker 9: the road or you know, more than a field goal

1830
01:33:18,200 --> 01:33:19,600
Speaker 9: on the road with a team that hasn't been on

1831
01:33:19,640 --> 01:33:23,120
Speaker 9: the road yet this year. And that's it's weird. You know,

1832
01:33:23,200 --> 01:33:24,960
Speaker 9: we're in the first week of October and Miami has

1833
01:33:25,040 --> 01:33:28,240
Speaker 9: yet to play a true road game. That's the only thing.

1834
01:33:28,320 --> 01:33:30,720
Speaker 9: And we talk about this a lot with you know,

1835
01:33:30,800 --> 01:33:33,719
Speaker 9: Drew Roller and Penn State. We need to also bring

1836
01:33:33,800 --> 01:33:37,160
Speaker 9: Mario Crystaball into the chat. Oh yeah, absolutely right, Like

1837
01:33:37,479 --> 01:33:40,200
Speaker 9: we haven't mentioned that name yet this year in the

1838
01:33:41,120 --> 01:33:44,920
Speaker 9: crystal Ball way that he can cut right, yeah, tight

1839
01:33:44,960 --> 01:33:49,960
Speaker 9: sphincter syndrome. It's a thing with mister crystal Ball. And

1840
01:33:50,240 --> 01:33:52,479
Speaker 9: I love this Miami team. I have some Carson Beck

1841
01:33:52,479 --> 01:33:55,160
Speaker 9: for Heisman. I think Miami's legit. I think their offensive line,

1842
01:33:55,160 --> 01:33:57,479
Speaker 9: as I said, is the best in the country. But

1843
01:33:57,840 --> 01:34:00,920
Speaker 9: we talk about getting Lagway at some point this year,

1844
01:34:00,960 --> 01:34:04,360
Speaker 9: we're gonna get Crystabald, right, Yeah, yeah.

1845
01:34:03,840 --> 01:34:06,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's true. It is true because he will he'll

1846
01:34:06,960 --> 01:34:08,360
Speaker 5: get conservative to a fault.

1847
01:34:08,720 --> 01:34:10,400
Speaker 6: And man, we talked about It's funny.

1848
01:34:10,439 --> 01:34:14,000
Speaker 5: We talked about Ryan Day last year getting tight and

1849
01:34:14,080 --> 01:34:17,000
Speaker 5: he gets tight, and then all of a sudden they

1850
01:34:17,000 --> 01:34:19,720
Speaker 5: got loose when the playoff ruled around And then then

1851
01:34:19,800 --> 01:34:24,360
Speaker 5: you saw them take off if Miami, you know they can.

1852
01:34:24,880 --> 01:34:28,760
Speaker 5: We're up by seven. Let's be conservative here. It's like, no, man,

1853
01:34:28,960 --> 01:34:32,160
Speaker 5: just play your game. Stop playing the score, and just

1854
01:34:32,200 --> 01:34:36,080
Speaker 5: play your game. I've seen that so many times, like

1855
01:34:36,240 --> 01:34:39,280
Speaker 5: time and time and time again with Justin Herbert, who's

1856
01:34:39,320 --> 01:34:43,400
Speaker 5: flourishing as an NFL quarterback. They were so careful. They

1857
01:34:43,439 --> 01:34:47,320
Speaker 5: were like Drew Aller careful, no kidding. With Herbert at

1858
01:34:47,360 --> 01:34:50,920
Speaker 5: Oregon when Chrystal Ball was there, it was obnoxious. It

1859
01:34:50,960 --> 01:34:52,880
Speaker 5: was just like, let's be careful, let's be careful. Oh

1860
01:34:52,880 --> 01:34:54,679
Speaker 5: we're losing, go ahead and win it for is Herbert

1861
01:34:54,720 --> 01:34:57,000
Speaker 5: and he's like, no problem, I got you. Finally I

1862
01:34:57,000 --> 01:34:59,599
Speaker 5: can do something here, right. So it's something to keep

1863
01:34:59,600 --> 01:35:02,840
Speaker 5: an eye on, for sure. Crystal Ball gets very tight.

1864
01:35:03,280 --> 01:35:06,559
Speaker 7: Yeah, However, in close games, I mean you could see

1865
01:35:06,560 --> 01:35:08,920
Speaker 7: these offenses opening up a little bit. The more we

1866
01:35:08,960 --> 01:35:12,920
Speaker 7: talk about this, the less I'm interested on a side here,

1867
01:35:12,960 --> 01:35:15,679
Speaker 7: and the more I'm interested in the over I think.

1868
01:35:16,080 --> 01:35:17,760
Speaker 4: I think we just.

1869
01:35:18,160 --> 01:35:21,439
Speaker 7: The success rate these qbs have against the type of

1870
01:35:21,479 --> 01:35:24,400
Speaker 7: coverages they're going to see. The faith I have in

1871
01:35:24,479 --> 01:35:27,479
Speaker 7: both of these teams run games, I feel like we

1872
01:35:27,520 --> 01:35:31,200
Speaker 7: could see we're at fifty four and a half, right,

1873
01:35:31,520 --> 01:35:35,360
Speaker 7: I could see this marching close to that number over Yeah,

1874
01:35:35,479 --> 01:35:40,880
Speaker 7: I mean, just just in terms of I agree with you,

1875
01:35:41,040 --> 01:35:43,840
Speaker 7: Chrystal Ball. It's hard to be on Miami with the

1876
01:35:43,840 --> 01:35:46,400
Speaker 7: way he's coached in certain games.

1877
01:35:46,640 --> 01:35:47,400
Speaker 4: Florida State.

1878
01:35:47,520 --> 01:35:50,400
Speaker 7: I don't know if I'm a complete believer yet, but

1879
01:35:50,439 --> 01:35:52,120
Speaker 7: the over feels like it's in play.

1880
01:35:52,560 --> 01:35:57,800
Speaker 9: Here's a good question, which script favors Which team does

1881
01:35:57,840 --> 01:36:00,760
Speaker 9: a low scoring game with Miami's game favor of the

1882
01:36:00,840 --> 01:36:04,520
Speaker 9: Hurricanes winning, or does a low scoring game with Castiano's

1883
01:36:04,960 --> 01:36:09,240
Speaker 9: keeping bully ball control with his legs favor Florida State.

1884
01:36:10,200 --> 01:36:11,040
Speaker 6: You know, it's funny.

1885
01:36:11,120 --> 01:36:15,080
Speaker 5: I think low or high scoring still favors Miami both

1886
01:36:15,920 --> 01:36:19,000
Speaker 5: They both of them favor Miami because they could play

1887
01:36:19,040 --> 01:36:22,479
Speaker 5: low scoring bullyball. Yeah, they could play more of a

1888
01:36:22,520 --> 01:36:24,639
Speaker 5: high scoring game. I like Miami both ways.

1889
01:36:24,720 --> 01:36:27,200
Speaker 9: Miami does have a good change up. I think I

1890
01:36:27,200 --> 01:36:29,680
Speaker 9: think Miami like to me, Carson Beck is like the

1891
01:36:29,760 --> 01:36:32,720
Speaker 9: number one guy right Like he's the he's the quarterback.

1892
01:36:32,720 --> 01:36:34,639
Speaker 9: He's the four star kid that came in the transfer.

1893
01:36:34,920 --> 01:36:37,080
Speaker 9: But Miami's change up is that run game in that

1894
01:36:37,160 --> 01:36:40,679
Speaker 9: offensive line. Like, that's to me, utilizing that offensive line

1895
01:36:40,720 --> 01:36:43,000
Speaker 9: as a throttle up, throttle down for when we they

1896
01:36:43,000 --> 01:36:45,519
Speaker 9: did it against Florida, Right, Carson Beck wasn't having a

1897
01:36:45,520 --> 01:36:46,639
Speaker 9: great game against Florida.

1898
01:36:46,920 --> 01:36:47,800
Speaker 8: It was kind of you.

1899
01:36:47,760 --> 01:36:49,519
Speaker 9: Know, that zone coverage was kind of tripping them up

1900
01:36:49,520 --> 01:36:50,799
Speaker 9: a little bit through a bad interception.

1901
01:36:50,880 --> 01:36:52,080
Speaker 8: It was kind of hit or miss.

1902
01:36:52,360 --> 01:36:55,200
Speaker 9: But then in the second half of that game, they said,

1903
01:36:55,280 --> 01:36:57,040
Speaker 9: screw this, We're just gonna run it right down your

1904
01:36:57,040 --> 01:36:59,720
Speaker 9: throat and they closed out the football game utilizing that

1905
01:36:59,760 --> 01:37:00,559
Speaker 9: all offensive line.

1906
01:37:00,600 --> 01:37:02,240
Speaker 8: It was a very low scoring game.

1907
01:37:02,760 --> 01:37:04,360
Speaker 9: And then on the other side of the equation in

1908
01:37:04,360 --> 01:37:06,720
Speaker 9: the in notre Name game, you saw Carson Beck's arm

1909
01:37:07,040 --> 01:37:11,120
Speaker 9: and his explosion with those receivers be the deciding factor.

1910
01:37:11,200 --> 01:37:12,759
Speaker 8: So to your point, Brian, I agree.

1911
01:37:13,200 --> 01:37:16,200
Speaker 9: I think Miami can lever up, lever down based off

1912
01:37:16,240 --> 01:37:19,880
Speaker 9: of the style. Styles make fights, Like what style of

1913
01:37:19,920 --> 01:37:21,240
Speaker 9: game does Florida State.

1914
01:37:21,080 --> 01:37:21,799
Speaker 8: Want to play?

1915
01:37:22,080 --> 01:37:24,120
Speaker 9: They might set the tone at home, but then I

1916
01:37:24,120 --> 01:37:25,240
Speaker 9: think Miami can counter.

1917
01:37:25,600 --> 01:37:26,240
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1918
01:37:26,479 --> 01:37:27,320
Speaker 8: Right, it's a fun game.

1919
01:37:27,400 --> 01:37:29,880
Speaker 9: There's a fun Matt honestly, really very fun matchup this game.

1920
01:37:29,920 --> 01:37:31,280
Speaker 8: I'm very excited to watch this game.

1921
01:37:31,479 --> 01:37:33,559
Speaker 5: I am too, I am too, and I don't want

1922
01:37:33,600 --> 01:37:36,000
Speaker 5: to be the Debbie Downer here, But man, what could

1923
01:37:36,040 --> 01:37:38,400
Speaker 5: have been a Florida State found a way, especially like

1924
01:37:38,479 --> 01:37:41,439
Speaker 5: double overtime, I know, the found away on the road

1925
01:37:41,479 --> 01:37:44,519
Speaker 5: to win this dramatic game against Virginia and that man,

1926
01:37:44,640 --> 01:37:47,400
Speaker 5: now we got what would it be like three verses four?

1927
01:37:47,560 --> 01:37:49,880
Speaker 5: I don't even know, yeah, three versus ten something like that,

1928
01:37:50,080 --> 01:37:51,920
Speaker 5: something like yeah, yeah.

1929
01:37:52,680 --> 01:37:55,680
Speaker 7: Speaking of overtime losses, I mean, if Penn State just

1930
01:37:55,760 --> 01:38:00,400
Speaker 7: didn't throw an inn or so, you know, would be

1931
01:38:00,400 --> 01:38:00,880
Speaker 7: so different.

1932
01:38:00,880 --> 01:38:02,360
Speaker 9: They still would have lost the game. You know why,

1933
01:38:02,439 --> 01:38:04,200
Speaker 9: because they were up to seven and overtime and their

1934
01:38:04,240 --> 01:38:06,760
Speaker 9: defense couldn't get off the field. We were gonna cover

1935
01:38:06,840 --> 01:38:09,040
Speaker 9: that one in overtime. That would have been the awesome,

1936
01:38:09,360 --> 01:38:12,559
Speaker 9: the best front door cover ever we've somehow got across

1937
01:38:12,600 --> 01:38:13,240
Speaker 9: the finish line.

1938
01:38:13,240 --> 01:38:15,800
Speaker 8: But of course the defense couldn't get us home.

1939
01:38:16,000 --> 01:38:18,559
Speaker 4: I'm gonna throw up. We'll be right back.

1940
01:38:18,640 --> 01:38:20,160
Speaker 8: Yeah, don't throw off. You're in a car right now.

1941
01:38:20,200 --> 01:38:24,080
Speaker 4: I don't know if that's good. That all right?

1942
01:38:24,080 --> 01:38:27,200
Speaker 5: We got we got rich Hornberger, Penn State all American

1943
01:38:27,280 --> 01:38:29,320
Speaker 5: Jared Smith, FSR betting analyst.

1944
01:38:29,400 --> 01:38:30,080
Speaker 6: I'm Brian No.

1945
01:38:30,439 --> 01:38:34,799
Speaker 5: Bet MGM players will receive college Football Odds Boost tokens

1946
01:38:34,800 --> 01:38:38,160
Speaker 5: and college Football Parlay Boost tokens throughout the season to

1947
01:38:38,320 --> 01:38:39,920
Speaker 5: use on college football bets.

1948
01:38:40,040 --> 01:38:41,240
Speaker 6: Score extra winnings.

1949
01:38:41,520 --> 01:38:43,680
Speaker 5: If your bet with the token applied wins, check it

1950
01:38:43,720 --> 01:38:46,200
Speaker 5: out in the bet MGM app.

1951
01:38:46,360 --> 01:38:47,439
Speaker 6: All right, coming up next.

1952
01:38:47,920 --> 01:38:50,040
Speaker 5: This team has been pretty good this season, but they

1953
01:38:50,120 --> 01:38:54,080
Speaker 5: are big underdogs today. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown

1954
01:38:54,080 --> 01:38:57,519
Speaker 5: to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. It is Fox Sports

1955
01:38:57,600 --> 01:39:01,400
Speaker 5: Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM, and it

1956
01:39:01,640 --> 01:39:04,000
Speaker 5: is time for the tire Rack Play of the day.

1957
01:39:04,400 --> 01:39:09,480
Speaker 3: That is an Option Evans on again.

1958
01:39:10,800 --> 01:39:14,200
Speaker 7: Dan Evans lighting the Finals.

1959
01:39:13,760 --> 01:39:14,720
Speaker 4: On fire.

1960
01:39:16,000 --> 01:39:17,120
Speaker 3: Vegas in front.

1961
01:39:18,439 --> 01:39:24,040
Speaker 5: There you go, compliments of ESPN as the Aces take

1962
01:39:24,120 --> 01:39:27,599
Speaker 5: Game one against the Mercury Good stuff Hey. For over

1963
01:39:27,640 --> 01:39:30,240
Speaker 5: forty years, ti Raq has been helping customers find the

1964
01:39:30,320 --> 01:39:32,880
Speaker 5: right tires for how, what and where they drive. Shipped

1965
01:39:32,880 --> 01:39:35,880
Speaker 5: fast and free, backed by free road hazard protection, with

1966
01:39:36,000 --> 01:39:40,360
Speaker 5: convenient installation options like mobile tire installation, tire rack dot Com.

1967
01:39:40,360 --> 01:39:44,000
Speaker 5: The way tire buying should be. Okay, we've move right

1968
01:39:44,000 --> 01:39:46,160
Speaker 5: into a game we'll go rapid fire here because we

1969
01:39:46,200 --> 01:39:49,360
Speaker 5: haven't even talked about my Irish yet, So I got

1970
01:39:49,360 --> 01:39:52,200
Speaker 5: a cart some time for that. What a dominating performance.

1971
01:39:52,240 --> 01:39:52,439
Speaker 1: Left.

1972
01:39:53,960 --> 01:39:57,519
Speaker 5: We're looking at Mississippi State at number six Texas A

1973
01:39:57,640 --> 01:40:01,600
Speaker 5: and M, and I'll tell you what, man, Mississippi State's.

1974
01:40:01,240 --> 01:40:03,280
Speaker 6: Been pretty good this year. They're four and one.

1975
01:40:03,520 --> 01:40:06,600
Speaker 5: Their only loss was last week against the Tennessee team

1976
01:40:06,920 --> 01:40:10,160
Speaker 5: where it was this crazy shootout game. They had a

1977
01:40:10,240 --> 01:40:14,679
Speaker 5: chance to score a touchdown in overtime to keep the game,

1978
01:40:15,240 --> 01:40:18,160
Speaker 5: like extend the game, and it fell short. But you

1979
01:40:18,280 --> 01:40:21,360
Speaker 5: lose an overtime against Tennessee, that's your only loss on

1980
01:40:21,439 --> 01:40:25,919
Speaker 5: the year. They're sixteen and a half point undertos against

1981
01:40:25,960 --> 01:40:29,679
Speaker 5: Texas A and M. I is a disrespectful line. It's

1982
01:40:29,720 --> 01:40:31,680
Speaker 5: one that makes me say, WHOA, Maybe you guys know

1983
01:40:31,720 --> 01:40:34,800
Speaker 5: something I don't know. This is only the second road

1984
01:40:34,840 --> 01:40:37,559
Speaker 5: game for Mississippi State. Their only road game was the

1985
01:40:37,560 --> 01:40:40,840
Speaker 5: first game of the season at Southern miss They beat

1986
01:40:40,840 --> 01:40:44,320
Speaker 5: Arizona State at home. They faced Alcorn State in Northern

1987
01:40:44,320 --> 01:40:48,160
Speaker 5: Illinois at home. They lost that close one against Tennessee

1988
01:40:48,200 --> 01:40:51,639
Speaker 5: in overtime, and now we hit the road again. But man,

1989
01:40:51,800 --> 01:40:54,360
Speaker 5: A and M, you see A and M covering sixteen

1990
01:40:54,400 --> 01:40:57,320
Speaker 5: and a half today against Mississippi State, who's been feisty

1991
01:40:57,400 --> 01:40:57,840
Speaker 5: thus far.

1992
01:40:58,080 --> 01:40:59,280
Speaker 6: What are you see in this one?

1993
01:40:59,800 --> 01:41:03,960
Speaker 7: You know, I'm not disagreeing with you full out because

1994
01:41:03,960 --> 01:41:07,920
Speaker 7: I credit to the Bulldogs. Mississippi State has looked competent

1995
01:41:08,120 --> 01:41:11,760
Speaker 7: at very least this season, if not good, But it

1996
01:41:11,920 --> 01:41:15,400
Speaker 7: kind of feels like Texas A and M should be

1997
01:41:15,479 --> 01:41:18,920
Speaker 7: able to sail past them without too much heartache. And

1998
01:41:18,960 --> 01:41:23,920
Speaker 7: here's why Mississippi State doesn't get any pressure on quarterbacks,

1999
01:41:24,200 --> 01:41:25,799
Speaker 7: I mean less than zero.

2000
01:41:26,000 --> 01:41:27,040
Speaker 4: It's bad.

2001
01:41:27,400 --> 01:41:29,960
Speaker 7: And in order to have a chance against Texas A

2002
01:41:30,040 --> 01:41:31,800
Speaker 7: and M, you need to be able to disrupt their

2003
01:41:31,840 --> 01:41:34,560
Speaker 7: passing game. And the best way to do that, obviously

2004
01:41:34,640 --> 01:41:38,160
Speaker 7: is with a pass rush, which the Bulldogs really provide

2005
01:41:38,360 --> 01:41:43,840
Speaker 7: zero urgency, it feels like upfront. So that is a

2006
01:41:43,960 --> 01:41:47,439
Speaker 7: huge win just just in terms of game script for

2007
01:41:47,760 --> 01:41:50,960
Speaker 7: A and M to sort of operate unfettered from a

2008
01:41:51,000 --> 01:41:54,040
Speaker 7: passing game. And you know, you look back to the

2009
01:41:54,080 --> 01:41:56,760
Speaker 7: Mississippi State against tennis. Even though it's a close game

2010
01:41:56,760 --> 01:42:01,240
Speaker 7: into the fourth quarter, ten of the passes went for

2011
01:42:01,320 --> 01:42:04,840
Speaker 7: at least fifteen yards in that game from the balls offense.

2012
01:42:05,640 --> 01:42:07,800
Speaker 7: It just doesn't bode well against the Texas A and

2013
01:42:07,880 --> 01:42:09,559
Speaker 7: M offense that may be even better.

2014
01:42:10,880 --> 01:42:14,519
Speaker 9: Yet, when I watch this ANM offense, it's very stop start.

2015
01:42:14,760 --> 01:42:18,479
Speaker 9: It's like one yard, two yards, fifty yards, one yard,

2016
01:42:18,479 --> 01:42:20,760
Speaker 9: two yards, twenty five yard Like it's it's kind of

2017
01:42:20,800 --> 01:42:22,360
Speaker 9: like a Sputters butter spit offense.

2018
01:42:22,520 --> 01:42:25,160
Speaker 5: Or against Notre Dame, it's like one yard, two yard

2019
01:42:25,240 --> 01:42:26,280
Speaker 5: eighty five yards.

2020
01:42:26,360 --> 01:42:29,800
Speaker 9: You know you throw, yeah, but that's the vibe, right,

2021
01:42:29,880 --> 01:42:33,440
Speaker 9: Like I think A and M does have this explosive

2022
01:42:33,479 --> 01:42:35,800
Speaker 9: potential with Marcel Reid, but it can be a little

2023
01:42:35,840 --> 01:42:40,439
Speaker 9: bit inconsistent sometimes, which d gives up more explosives, like

2024
01:42:40,439 --> 01:42:43,440
Speaker 9: when you want to talk about, yeah, trying to predict

2025
01:42:43,920 --> 01:42:47,320
Speaker 9: which team is going to win a football game. Turnovers

2026
01:42:47,360 --> 01:42:50,479
Speaker 9: is obviously a huge thing, but explosives that's the new

2027
01:42:50,880 --> 01:42:55,240
Speaker 9: that's all the rage these days. Can you create an

2028
01:42:55,280 --> 01:42:58,840
Speaker 9: explosive play on offense or defense On the defensive side,

2029
01:42:58,840 --> 01:43:02,320
Speaker 9: we call it havoc. That's kind of the term that

2030
01:43:02,400 --> 01:43:05,040
Speaker 9: gets used in the analytical circles these days when we're

2031
01:43:05,040 --> 01:43:10,160
Speaker 9: trying to describe defensive explosives. Mississippi State has to cause

2032
01:43:10,479 --> 01:43:13,719
Speaker 9: havoc defensively today. Why they don't have a ton of depth,

2033
01:43:14,400 --> 01:43:16,919
Speaker 9: so they're kind of a bend but don't break defense.

2034
01:43:17,880 --> 01:43:20,360
Speaker 8: That means they need to a create turnovers, create.

2035
01:43:20,240 --> 01:43:24,880
Speaker 9: Negative plays because if not eventually and the market's kind

2036
01:43:24,880 --> 01:43:27,559
Speaker 9: of telling you right. Sometimes when you're undecided on a game,

2037
01:43:27,840 --> 01:43:30,519
Speaker 9: use the numbers the market is giving you to try

2038
01:43:30,560 --> 01:43:34,679
Speaker 9: to formulate or reformat, refocus your opinion.

2039
01:43:35,280 --> 01:43:37,920
Speaker 8: Missisippi State's played pretty well this year, won a.

2040
01:43:37,880 --> 01:43:40,280
Speaker 9: Couple games that maybe they shouldn't have won, big upset

2041
01:43:40,320 --> 01:43:44,040
Speaker 9: over Arizona State, battled against Tennessee. But they're on the

2042
01:43:44,120 --> 01:43:47,200
Speaker 9: road against a good team, and the market is telling

2043
01:43:47,200 --> 01:43:50,559
Speaker 9: you that they are going to get hammered. So don't

2044
01:43:50,680 --> 01:43:56,559
Speaker 9: let their solid performances early in the season take away

2045
01:43:56,600 --> 01:43:58,640
Speaker 9: from the fact that at their core, this was a

2046
01:43:58,680 --> 01:44:00,639
Speaker 9: team with a win total of three and a half

2047
01:44:00,720 --> 01:44:02,719
Speaker 9: heading into the season. They've burning one over that win total.

2048
01:44:02,920 --> 01:44:05,080
Speaker 9: Great job by you if you bet the over, but

2049
01:44:05,360 --> 01:44:07,640
Speaker 9: this at their core, they feel like a team that

2050
01:44:07,760 --> 01:44:11,479
Speaker 9: needs to create that explosive play, both on offense and

2051
01:44:11,560 --> 01:44:14,160
Speaker 9: on defense. And if they can't do that today, if

2052
01:44:14,200 --> 01:44:18,040
Speaker 9: they can't get TFLs, if they can't force turnovers, it

2053
01:44:18,200 --> 01:44:20,160
Speaker 9: kind of feels like a and M is just gonna

2054
01:44:20,160 --> 01:44:23,880
Speaker 9: go one, two fifty one, two sixty and eventually they'll

2055
01:44:23,880 --> 01:44:24,920
Speaker 9: get in front of the number.

2056
01:44:25,240 --> 01:44:27,800
Speaker 5: And they've got the dudes to do it, right If

2057
01:44:27,880 --> 01:44:31,759
Speaker 5: Mississippi State is getting no pressure as rich throughout there,

2058
01:44:32,360 --> 01:44:35,160
Speaker 5: I mean, you've got Marcel Reid, who's a home run

2059
01:44:35,240 --> 01:44:38,720
Speaker 5: hitter and he's throwing to Mario Craver, who I still

2060
01:44:38,760 --> 01:44:42,040
Speaker 5: have nightmares about against Notre Dame, and Casey Concepts, the

2061
01:44:42,120 --> 01:44:44,920
Speaker 5: own who's been a really good transfer for them. Le'Veon

2062
01:44:45,040 --> 01:44:48,559
Speaker 5: Moss looked great last week. He ran for a healthy

2063
01:44:48,640 --> 01:44:51,040
Speaker 5: total like over like around one thirty five or he

2064
01:44:51,120 --> 01:44:52,200
Speaker 5: went crazy last week.

2065
01:44:52,240 --> 01:44:53,639
Speaker 8: He might be the best running back in the country

2066
01:44:53,680 --> 01:44:54,840
Speaker 8: outside of Jeremiah.

2067
01:44:55,160 --> 01:44:56,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I agree.

2068
01:44:56,560 --> 01:44:58,320
Speaker 6: Hey, well, speaking to Jeremiah Lte.

2069
01:44:58,360 --> 01:45:01,160
Speaker 8: Oh that's a right there.

2070
01:45:02,000 --> 01:45:05,080
Speaker 5: We got Boise State at number twenty one, Notre Dame,

2071
01:45:05,760 --> 01:45:09,080
Speaker 5: Notre Dame taking up an even healthier favorite twenty one

2072
01:45:09,160 --> 01:45:13,600
Speaker 5: and a half. Wow against Boise States. A that's a

2073
01:45:13,600 --> 01:45:15,400
Speaker 5: lot to cover right there. But I'll tell you what,

2074
01:45:15,560 --> 01:45:18,400
Speaker 5: here's my question with Notre Dame. They played real defense

2075
01:45:18,479 --> 01:45:21,360
Speaker 5: last week against Arkansas, and ah, how sweet that was.

2076
01:45:21,720 --> 01:45:23,600
Speaker 5: Heading into that game, it seemed like the world was

2077
01:45:23,680 --> 01:45:24,599
Speaker 5: I love Arkansas.

2078
01:45:24,640 --> 01:45:24,960
Speaker 4: Me too.

2079
01:45:25,040 --> 01:45:25,839
Speaker 5: I love Arkansas.

2080
01:45:25,880 --> 01:45:26,200
Speaker 4: You too?

2081
01:45:26,280 --> 01:45:29,080
Speaker 5: Yeah yeah, John, you and y'all. We're all in on Arkansas.

2082
01:45:29,080 --> 01:45:29,919
Speaker 5: I love Arkansas.

2083
01:45:30,000 --> 01:45:30,599
Speaker 3: Who's John?

2084
01:45:31,120 --> 01:45:31,519
Speaker 8: I don't know.

2085
01:45:32,439 --> 01:45:35,200
Speaker 9: There's a guy who loves the rasor guy who loves Arkansas,

2086
01:45:35,240 --> 01:45:36,280
Speaker 9: who loves the poor.

2087
01:45:36,400 --> 01:45:37,920
Speaker 8: This week he's living under a bridge.

2088
01:45:38,040 --> 01:45:40,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, Joe, you went on the Razorbacks. Hell yeah, I'm

2089
01:45:40,320 --> 01:45:41,240
Speaker 5: in on the Razorbacks.

2090
01:45:41,240 --> 01:45:45,720
Speaker 9: Also living under a bridge, Yepole fifty.

2091
01:45:45,520 --> 01:45:49,720
Speaker 5: Six to thirteen And that Notre Dame defense, that was

2092
01:45:49,760 --> 01:45:54,120
Speaker 5: a surprise. They've been a grease fire all season long.

2093
01:45:54,720 --> 01:45:57,960
Speaker 5: And you hold Taylor Green and check, you hold that

2094
01:45:58,080 --> 01:46:02,120
Speaker 5: Bobby Petrino offense in check to the tune of thirteen points.

2095
01:46:02,040 --> 01:46:03,120
Speaker 8: Got that trade fired?

2096
01:46:03,720 --> 01:46:07,360
Speaker 5: Yeah that's right. Yeah, Petrino's in like Sam Pittman is out.

2097
01:46:07,680 --> 01:46:10,880
Speaker 5: So you've got a Notre Dame's defense looked at a

2098
01:46:10,880 --> 01:46:15,040
Speaker 5: whole lot better. Will it look good going forward or

2099
01:46:15,080 --> 01:46:17,200
Speaker 5: are they gonna revert back to their horrid ways?

2100
01:46:17,360 --> 01:46:17,559
Speaker 4: Now?

2101
01:46:18,040 --> 01:46:20,640
Speaker 5: It's probably somewhere in the middle. But what do you

2102
01:46:20,680 --> 01:46:23,080
Speaker 5: think it's gonna be more of? Do you think it's

2103
01:46:23,120 --> 01:46:26,479
Speaker 5: gonna be, you know, like somewhat stellar like last week,

2104
01:46:26,640 --> 01:46:28,840
Speaker 5: or it's gonna be train wreck city like it was

2105
01:46:29,439 --> 01:46:31,160
Speaker 5: for the other games this season.

2106
01:46:31,560 --> 01:46:34,040
Speaker 7: Well, you guys know the ties I have to the

2107
01:46:34,040 --> 01:46:36,120
Speaker 7: Mount West. I call a bunch of games in the

2108
01:46:36,120 --> 01:46:39,080
Speaker 7: Mount West. I was on one last night between Colorado

2109
01:46:39,160 --> 01:46:42,600
Speaker 7: State and San Diego State in San Diego, a blowout

2110
01:46:42,600 --> 01:46:46,080
Speaker 7: of bloodbat. San Diego State was trouncing the Rams, but

2111
01:46:46,160 --> 01:46:48,519
Speaker 7: getting to the Broncos here against Notre Dame.

2112
01:46:49,200 --> 01:46:51,439
Speaker 4: You know, look, a group of five favorite every year

2113
01:46:51,479 --> 01:46:52,160
Speaker 4: for good reason.

2114
01:46:52,200 --> 01:46:55,600
Speaker 7: The past two decades. They've built up this incredible profile

2115
01:46:55,640 --> 01:46:59,360
Speaker 7: of winning. And after that road loss to USF to

2116
01:46:59,439 --> 01:47:03,160
Speaker 7: open this season, they've bounced back nicely. They've won three straight.

2117
01:47:03,920 --> 01:47:07,559
Speaker 7: They've opened up in the passing game. They've scored forty

2118
01:47:07,640 --> 01:47:11,960
Speaker 7: nine points per game through the past three. And you

2119
01:47:12,000 --> 01:47:16,560
Speaker 7: have Dylan Riley, you have sired games. Both are averaging

2120
01:47:16,600 --> 01:47:20,679
Speaker 7: over six yards per carry. They're trying to replace ashten genty,

2121
01:47:20,800 --> 01:47:24,240
Speaker 7: the now Raider running backs production from a year ago,

2122
01:47:24,280 --> 01:47:25,559
Speaker 7: and they're doing a nice job.

2123
01:47:25,600 --> 01:47:29,600
Speaker 4: And then you have k Poles who Madson their quarterback.

2124
01:47:29,200 --> 01:47:32,240
Speaker 7: Is throwing to and he's got a boatload of receiving

2125
01:47:32,320 --> 01:47:36,880
Speaker 7: yards already and two touchdowns, so he's an explosive playmaker

2126
01:47:36,960 --> 01:47:40,720
Speaker 7: as part of this Boise State offense. That's the synopsis

2127
01:47:40,760 --> 01:47:44,719
Speaker 7: that you have not a tremendous defense here going against

2128
01:47:44,720 --> 01:47:48,240
Speaker 7: this Notre Dame defense. I mean, look sixty three and

2129
01:47:48,240 --> 01:47:51,400
Speaker 7: a half. Like Jared was telling you earlier, you got

2130
01:47:51,439 --> 01:47:54,160
Speaker 7: to listen to the market sometimes and maybe.

2131
01:47:53,880 --> 01:47:55,799
Speaker 4: Take a harder look at the props.

2132
01:47:55,840 --> 01:47:58,080
Speaker 7: This may come up on rapid fire, by the way,

2133
01:47:58,600 --> 01:48:01,760
Speaker 7: because the market's telling you that there should be a

2134
01:48:01,800 --> 01:48:05,200
Speaker 7: lot of a lot of yardage in this game, a

2135
01:48:05,200 --> 01:48:07,360
Speaker 7: lot of scoring in this game, and it's not going

2136
01:48:07,439 --> 01:48:10,960
Speaker 7: to be all one way. Boise State's gonna get theirs

2137
01:48:11,000 --> 01:48:14,000
Speaker 7: in this game. It could be a closer game than

2138
01:48:14,040 --> 01:48:14,920
Speaker 7: you're comfortable with.

2139
01:48:15,040 --> 01:48:18,400
Speaker 4: Mister no hm m I see.

2140
01:48:18,080 --> 01:48:20,280
Speaker 9: When I watched Boise in that F and to be fair,

2141
01:48:20,320 --> 01:48:21,880
Speaker 9: I have not watched them the last few weeks. I

2142
01:48:21,920 --> 01:48:24,160
Speaker 9: kind of wrote Boise off after that USF game.

2143
01:48:24,160 --> 01:48:24,519
Speaker 4: Oak.

2144
01:48:24,560 --> 01:48:26,519
Speaker 8: Yeah, this team's gonna struggle this year without Ash.

2145
01:48:26,720 --> 01:48:28,880
Speaker 4: I don't blame you, by the way. A loss.

2146
01:48:29,000 --> 01:48:31,800
Speaker 9: Yeah it was, and it's not like USF's looked great

2147
01:48:31,840 --> 01:48:34,519
Speaker 9: since then. But I think what USF was able to

2148
01:48:34,560 --> 01:48:39,000
Speaker 9: do is exploit the physicality. That's the one thing about

2149
01:48:39,040 --> 01:48:41,160
Speaker 9: Boise and we saw in the Penn State game last

2150
01:48:41,200 --> 01:48:45,120
Speaker 9: year too. They struggle when they are when the game

2151
01:48:45,200 --> 01:48:48,200
Speaker 9: is brought to them and they're the nail, not the hammer.

2152
01:48:48,920 --> 01:48:52,000
Speaker 9: They're typically the hammer because they play in a conference

2153
01:48:52,080 --> 01:48:54,760
Speaker 9: that doesn't have a ton of physicality and they have

2154
01:48:54,880 --> 01:48:56,720
Speaker 9: better players than a lot of these other teams in

2155
01:48:56,720 --> 01:48:57,439
Speaker 9: the Mountain West.

2156
01:48:57,960 --> 01:48:59,960
Speaker 8: Well, now they're they're level I think.

2157
01:48:59,840 --> 01:49:03,360
Speaker 9: Of talent is just tailed off a little bit and

2158
01:49:03,800 --> 01:49:07,200
Speaker 9: they're struggling to be that hammer. And when they are,

2159
01:49:07,680 --> 01:49:09,600
Speaker 9: you see it against Air Force and app State in

2160
01:49:09,640 --> 01:49:10,519
Speaker 9: Eastern Washington.

2161
01:49:10,840 --> 01:49:11,559
Speaker 8: Sure it's great.

2162
01:49:12,240 --> 01:49:14,400
Speaker 9: Now you're facing a very upset Notre Dame team that

2163
01:49:14,479 --> 01:49:16,400
Speaker 9: still feels like they have a chip on their shoulder,

2164
01:49:17,000 --> 01:49:19,120
Speaker 9: and they've now scored fifty six points in back to

2165
01:49:19,160 --> 01:49:21,760
Speaker 9: back weeks and the defense is kind of starting to

2166
01:49:21,920 --> 01:49:26,120
Speaker 9: button things up. My vibe is if Notre Dame can

2167
01:49:26,160 --> 01:49:29,120
Speaker 9: win this game by fifty, they will because now they

2168
01:49:29,160 --> 01:49:31,479
Speaker 9: need style points. We are at the point now in

2169
01:49:31,479 --> 01:49:35,040
Speaker 9: the season where if they go ten and two, they

2170
01:49:35,120 --> 01:49:37,760
Speaker 9: should be in the playoffs. As long as those ten

2171
01:49:37,800 --> 01:49:40,800
Speaker 9: wins down the stretch look pretty darn good, and they've

2172
01:49:40,840 --> 01:49:42,680
Speaker 9: got a lot of opponents that they can put some

2173
01:49:42,800 --> 01:49:46,000
Speaker 9: distance between themselves right at n See State US SEE.

2174
01:49:46,000 --> 01:49:47,920
Speaker 9: That actually gonna be a really interesting game against USC

2175
01:49:48,320 --> 01:49:51,040
Speaker 9: and then Boston College. Navy pits here at CU Stanford. Like,

2176
01:49:51,680 --> 01:49:55,280
Speaker 9: we expect Notre Dame to be ten and two, but

2177
01:49:55,479 --> 01:50:00,719
Speaker 9: it will be ten wins against unranked teams, so those

2178
01:50:00,840 --> 01:50:03,680
Speaker 9: ten wins need to be pretty darn decisive.

2179
01:50:03,960 --> 01:50:06,680
Speaker 8: Now, is twenty one and a half a fair number? Probably?

2180
01:50:07,160 --> 01:50:09,720
Speaker 9: Notre Dame is coming off of a whopper of a win.

2181
01:50:10,360 --> 01:50:13,280
Speaker 9: You typically don't bet on teams after they win by

2182
01:50:13,280 --> 01:50:15,600
Speaker 9: forty three. You're just not getting a great number in

2183
01:50:15,640 --> 01:50:18,799
Speaker 9: the market because the market typically moves in that team's favor.

2184
01:50:19,200 --> 01:50:21,920
Speaker 9: And on the other side of the equation, Boise State's

2185
01:50:21,960 --> 01:50:24,120
Speaker 9: also coming off of a really big, decisive win, but

2186
01:50:24,160 --> 01:50:26,639
Speaker 9: they're facing they faced app States, So again, the market

2187
01:50:26,720 --> 01:50:29,000
Speaker 9: dynamics here, I think are telling you Notre Dame should

2188
01:50:29,040 --> 01:50:33,120
Speaker 9: comfortably win this game. I just don't know if they

2189
01:50:33,160 --> 01:50:34,840
Speaker 9: are going to win it by that much. This is

2190
01:50:34,840 --> 01:50:37,519
Speaker 9: a layoff for me. I think twenty one is fair.

2191
01:50:37,640 --> 01:50:38,879
Speaker 9: I think that's a fair price.

2192
01:50:38,680 --> 01:50:39,200
Speaker 8: For this game.

2193
01:50:39,640 --> 01:50:43,000
Speaker 5: Okay, how about Texas Tech at Houston? This number is

2194
01:50:43,080 --> 01:50:45,479
Speaker 5: creeping up a little bit more. Texas Tech now favored

2195
01:50:45,479 --> 01:50:48,840
Speaker 5: by thirteen and a half. Very impressive last week. They

2196
01:50:48,880 --> 01:50:52,439
Speaker 5: lost well. Last game, they lost their quarterback Baron Morton

2197
01:50:52,520 --> 01:50:54,000
Speaker 5: to injury against Utah.

2198
01:50:54,040 --> 01:50:55,200
Speaker 6: Here comes Will Hammond.

2199
01:50:55,600 --> 01:50:58,760
Speaker 5: How does thirteen for sixteen for a bucks sixty nine

2200
01:50:58,800 --> 01:51:02,360
Speaker 5: and two touchdowns with no sound against the really physical

2201
01:51:02,479 --> 01:51:06,639
Speaker 5: Utah defense. That's like wow, all of a sudden, Texas

2202
01:51:06,640 --> 01:51:09,680
Speaker 5: Tech is plug and play. Like their defensive line is

2203
01:51:09,760 --> 01:51:12,200
Speaker 5: really good. You look at this Houston offense. I just

2204
01:51:12,200 --> 01:51:14,800
Speaker 5: don't see how they match points at all they are.

2205
01:51:15,680 --> 01:51:19,280
Speaker 5: They're three and out nearly thirty nine percent of the time.

2206
01:51:19,760 --> 01:51:23,200
Speaker 5: That is dreadful, and I just I think they're gonna

2207
01:51:23,240 --> 01:51:24,519
Speaker 5: get steamrolled in this game.

2208
01:51:25,720 --> 01:51:28,800
Speaker 7: You gotta love what Texas Tech did just from a

2209
01:51:28,840 --> 01:51:33,439
Speaker 7: recruitment and transfer portal standpoint, they spent a lot of money.

2210
01:51:33,880 --> 01:51:39,000
Speaker 7: They were able to secure twenty one extremely high caliber transfers,

2211
01:51:39,040 --> 01:51:44,200
Speaker 7: including shoring up the defensive line with David Bally. Their

2212
01:51:44,240 --> 01:51:48,160
Speaker 7: defense has been incredibly stingy. They've only surrendered or they

2213
01:51:48,200 --> 01:51:50,600
Speaker 7: haven't surrendered more than fourteen points in a game so

2214
01:51:50,680 --> 01:51:54,720
Speaker 7: far this season, and they were able to stifle Utah

2215
01:51:55,040 --> 01:51:57,920
Speaker 7: in Salt Lake City, not an easy place to play.

2216
01:51:57,960 --> 01:51:58,240
Speaker 4: Well.

2217
01:51:58,360 --> 01:52:01,680
Speaker 7: I've been to rice ecls many time, and that's a

2218
01:52:01,880 --> 01:52:04,800
Speaker 7: tough environment on the road to have success.

2219
01:52:04,920 --> 01:52:06,280
Speaker 4: So I agree with you.

2220
01:52:06,439 --> 01:52:10,439
Speaker 7: I don't know how much Houston has for Texas Tech.

2221
01:52:10,880 --> 01:52:15,240
Speaker 7: They stacked up this offseason in terms of exploiting the

2222
01:52:15,280 --> 01:52:20,760
Speaker 7: new rules, the transfer portal, NILS. It's retro fitting and

2223
01:52:20,880 --> 01:52:24,599
Speaker 7: changing some of these programs that are really you know,

2224
01:52:24,840 --> 01:52:27,519
Speaker 7: that have a strong base of donors and alumni who

2225
01:52:27,560 --> 01:52:30,080
Speaker 7: are interested in investing in the program's future.

2226
01:52:30,479 --> 01:52:31,960
Speaker 4: And that's what the Red Raiders have.

2227
01:52:32,080 --> 01:52:35,920
Speaker 7: And like I said, already, early this season, you're seeing

2228
01:52:35,920 --> 01:52:38,679
Speaker 7: a lot of these transfers playing great football. They gelled

2229
01:52:38,760 --> 01:52:41,559
Speaker 7: early this season. Texas Tech, They're on a little bit

2230
01:52:41,600 --> 01:52:42,680
Speaker 7: of a warpath right now.

2231
01:52:43,439 --> 01:52:44,920
Speaker 8: Guys, don't overthink this one.

2232
01:52:45,280 --> 01:52:50,440
Speaker 9: Sometimes you just have to look at the basic, basic stats,

2233
01:52:50,560 --> 01:52:54,640
Speaker 9: at basic results, and you can formulate an opinion on

2234
01:52:54,680 --> 01:52:57,560
Speaker 9: the game. I've not watched Houston once all year, full disclosure,

2235
01:52:57,600 --> 01:52:59,000
Speaker 9: I haven't watched one second of them.

2236
01:52:59,160 --> 01:53:00,000
Speaker 4: How dare you?

2237
01:53:00,120 --> 01:53:04,680
Speaker 9: How dare to flow in the Big Twelve, which, by

2238
01:53:04,720 --> 01:53:07,360
Speaker 9: the way, the Big twelve. The PAC twelve died so

2239
01:53:07,400 --> 01:53:10,280
Speaker 9: the Big twelve could live. What a weird Blackie conference

2240
01:53:10,320 --> 01:53:14,000
Speaker 9: this year? The Big twelve is but Houston wins over

2241
01:53:14,040 --> 01:53:16,400
Speaker 9: Steven f Austin, Rice, Colorado, Oregon State.

2242
01:53:16,840 --> 01:53:20,400
Speaker 7: Okay, I watched the entire Houston Oregon State game, and

2243
01:53:21,240 --> 01:53:22,800
Speaker 7: I promise you didn't miss much.

2244
01:53:22,840 --> 01:53:23,960
Speaker 8: I didn't miss much.

2245
01:53:24,280 --> 01:53:28,200
Speaker 9: Meanwhile, Texas Tech, you know, blowout wins over Arkansas, Plin,

2246
01:53:28,280 --> 01:53:30,840
Speaker 9: buff Kent State, Oregon State, and then the win at Utah. Right,

2247
01:53:30,880 --> 01:53:34,439
Speaker 9: that's the one that you have to take seriously. If

2248
01:53:34,479 --> 01:53:37,080
Speaker 9: you go on the road in conference play and you

2249
01:53:37,240 --> 01:53:41,599
Speaker 9: decisively win, it changes your chemistry, It changes the way

2250
01:53:41,640 --> 01:53:44,280
Speaker 9: you feel about your team, right, and Rich I know

2251
01:53:44,320 --> 01:53:45,640
Speaker 9: you do this because you go on the road with

2252
01:53:45,680 --> 01:53:46,240
Speaker 9: these teams.

2253
01:53:46,760 --> 01:53:48,000
Speaker 8: When you're coming back from.

2254
01:53:47,880 --> 01:53:50,840
Speaker 9: A road win, oh man, like, there is no better

2255
01:53:50,840 --> 01:53:52,920
Speaker 9: feeling than that on the team, boss, team playing whatever.

2256
01:53:53,400 --> 01:53:56,720
Speaker 9: So just based off that result in itself, you have

2257
01:53:56,760 --> 01:53:58,839
Speaker 9: to take Texas Tech seriously. Then you look at Houston's

2258
01:53:58,880 --> 01:54:01,519
Speaker 9: offense and you're wow, they're like one hundred and thirty

2259
01:54:01,560 --> 01:54:04,200
Speaker 9: first in offensive success, Right, how the heck are they

2260
01:54:04,240 --> 01:54:05,320
Speaker 9: four and oh?

2261
01:54:05,360 --> 01:54:06,880
Speaker 8: And then you look at the market and you're like.

2262
01:54:06,840 --> 01:54:10,200
Speaker 9: Wow, Texas Tech's a fourteen point favorite on the road

2263
01:54:10,360 --> 01:54:14,400
Speaker 9: in conference play. Again, don't overthink this. The market is

2264
01:54:14,479 --> 01:54:18,599
Speaker 9: telling you that Texas Tech is the significantly better team

2265
01:54:18,640 --> 01:54:20,519
Speaker 9: despite the fact that both these teams have the exact

2266
01:54:20,520 --> 01:54:23,720
Speaker 9: same record. Don't overthink it, bet Texas Decker, don't bet

2267
01:54:23,760 --> 01:54:24,280
Speaker 9: this game at all.

2268
01:54:24,479 --> 01:54:27,439
Speaker 5: Well, and I also think, hey, man, listen, three and out.

2269
01:54:28,080 --> 01:54:30,720
Speaker 5: I don't think it's ever good, right, but it can

2270
01:54:30,800 --> 01:54:33,760
Speaker 5: be way worse against certain opponents. So if you think

2271
01:54:33,800 --> 01:54:36,240
Speaker 5: of Houston again, they go three and out nearly thirty

2272
01:54:36,320 --> 01:54:39,200
Speaker 5: nine percent of the time. Wolf, that's a ton You

2273
01:54:39,200 --> 01:54:42,160
Speaker 5: go three and out against Oregon State, Eh, you know

2274
01:54:42,480 --> 01:54:44,600
Speaker 5: it might be okay. You go three and out against

2275
01:54:44,680 --> 01:54:45,360
Speaker 5: Texas Tech.

2276
01:54:46,120 --> 01:54:46,640
Speaker 4: Lookout.

2277
01:54:47,040 --> 01:54:50,520
Speaker 5: The chances are they probably scored their previous drive and

2278
01:54:50,600 --> 01:54:53,560
Speaker 5: now they're right back on the field again and your

2279
01:54:53,600 --> 01:54:58,280
Speaker 5: defense might be gassed. That is a recipe for disaster.

2280
01:54:58,040 --> 01:55:01,280
Speaker 6: For Houston in this one. Oh yeah, it's uh.

2281
01:55:01,560 --> 01:55:03,680
Speaker 5: I think you have to take something pretty fluky for

2282
01:55:03,800 --> 01:55:07,120
Speaker 5: uh Houston to even hang in this one. So man,

2283
01:55:07,120 --> 01:55:09,000
Speaker 5: I have I have like nineteen plays I want to

2284
01:55:09,040 --> 01:55:11,720
Speaker 5: sneak into right now, fire, I know, I gotta whittle

2285
01:55:11,760 --> 01:55:14,120
Speaker 5: it down to three. This is an American what are

2286
01:55:14,120 --> 01:55:17,480
Speaker 5: we doing? We got rich Orenberger, Penn State All American,

2287
01:55:17,600 --> 01:55:21,760
Speaker 5: Jared Smith FSR. Betting analyst. I'm Brian No Coming up next,

2288
01:55:21,920 --> 01:55:24,880
Speaker 5: rapid Fire. We each have three selections for you. We

2289
01:55:24,960 --> 01:55:32,120
Speaker 5: throw them your way in a concise, strategic fashion. I

2290
01:55:32,160 --> 01:55:34,000
Speaker 5: don't know if that makes sense, but a bunch of

2291
01:55:34,000 --> 01:55:37,080
Speaker 5: picks coming up. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff,

2292
01:55:37,320 --> 01:55:40,560
Speaker 5: presented by Bet MGM. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown

2293
01:55:40,560 --> 01:55:44,400
Speaker 5: to Kickoff, presented by Bett MGM. If you missed anything

2294
01:55:44,440 --> 01:55:47,200
Speaker 5: on today's show, you'll want to catch the podcast. Just

2295
01:55:47,200 --> 01:55:50,520
Speaker 5: search Fox Sports Radio wherever you get your podcasts. Right

2296
01:55:50,520 --> 01:55:53,520
Speaker 5: after the show, today's pod will be posted. Be sure

2297
01:55:53,560 --> 01:55:55,280
Speaker 5: to follow it, rate it five stars, and you can

2298
01:55:55,320 --> 01:55:56,280
Speaker 5: even provide a review.

2299
01:55:56,680 --> 01:55:56,960
Speaker 4: Again.

2300
01:55:57,080 --> 01:55:59,920
Speaker 5: Just search Fox Sports Radio wherever you get your podcasts,

2301
01:56:00,320 --> 01:56:03,000
Speaker 5: and you'll find today's full show posted right after we

2302
01:56:03,040 --> 01:56:06,160
Speaker 5: get off the air. Props to the crew, our trusted

2303
01:56:06,160 --> 01:56:12,040
Speaker 5: producer Bo Benson, the Dodger Zone Pod, huge NLDS series

2304
01:56:12,040 --> 01:56:15,560
Speaker 5: against the Phillies. Check all the tidbits out on the

2305
01:56:15,600 --> 01:56:20,160
Speaker 5: Dodger Zone Pod. Our technical producer extraordinary Chris Purfett. Shout

2306
01:56:20,160 --> 01:56:22,320
Speaker 5: out to him and shout out to our guy Sager

2307
01:56:22,400 --> 01:56:26,000
Speaker 5: on digital posting our clips. Give Fox Sports Radio a

2308
01:56:26,040 --> 01:56:30,000
Speaker 5: follow on x can see our smiling faces over there.

2309
01:56:30,120 --> 01:56:31,800
Speaker 5: All right, we got some picks to make before we

2310
01:56:31,800 --> 01:56:34,760
Speaker 5: do that up on game LaVar Arrington, TJ. Huschman's out

2311
01:56:34,760 --> 01:56:37,840
Speaker 5: of Plexico Birthday've got you covered less than ten minutes

2312
01:56:37,880 --> 01:56:39,960
Speaker 5: from now, keep it locked right here on Fox Sports Radio.

2313
01:56:40,280 --> 01:56:43,360
Speaker 5: How dare I almost short change them on a shout out?

2314
01:56:43,480 --> 01:56:44,920
Speaker 5: I'm just so kiddy about these picks.

2315
01:56:44,960 --> 01:56:45,720
Speaker 8: Let's do it.

2316
01:56:49,200 --> 01:56:50,080
Speaker 3: Rapid fire.

2317
01:56:51,080 --> 01:56:53,480
Speaker 6: All right, Jared, we start with you. What's something you like?

2318
01:56:53,920 --> 01:56:56,240
Speaker 9: I've gone two and one four street leads. I will

2319
01:56:56,280 --> 01:56:58,839
Speaker 9: take that every single week for the rest of the season. Please,

2320
01:56:59,160 --> 01:57:02,840
Speaker 9: Gambling God, don't smite us. I'm gonna lay twenty four

2321
01:57:02,880 --> 01:57:04,720
Speaker 9: and a half points with Penn State today Ucla.

2322
01:57:04,760 --> 01:57:06,120
Speaker 8: Maybe I'm a glutton for punishment.

2323
01:57:06,160 --> 01:57:07,680
Speaker 9: If you think it was a rough week for Penn State,

2324
01:57:07,720 --> 01:57:10,640
Speaker 9: how about Ucla that's been the entire season. Parted ways

2325
01:57:10,680 --> 01:57:14,000
Speaker 9: with Tino Sinseri, the're oc the tight end coach and

2326
01:57:14,080 --> 01:57:18,360
Speaker 9: former UCLA quarterback Jerry Neuheisel will call plays this week.

2327
01:57:18,680 --> 01:57:21,240
Speaker 9: And yes, Drew Allers looked like Uncle Drew this season,

2328
01:57:21,280 --> 01:57:23,200
Speaker 9: but I think this is a good spot for the

2329
01:57:23,280 --> 01:57:26,200
Speaker 9: Nittney Lions that bounce back. Hopefully the run game really responds.

2330
01:57:26,360 --> 01:57:28,800
Speaker 9: Nebraska minus twelve and a half at home against Michigan State.

2331
01:57:28,840 --> 01:57:30,839
Speaker 9: Get back game for the Huskers. They lost to Michigan

2332
01:57:30,880 --> 01:57:33,600
Speaker 9: two weeks ago. Two years ago Matt rules first season

2333
01:57:33,640 --> 01:57:36,760
Speaker 9: as head coach. They went to Michigan State as a

2334
01:57:36,920 --> 01:57:39,800
Speaker 9: road favorite. Sparti was zero to five in the Big Ten.

2335
01:57:39,840 --> 01:57:42,480
Speaker 9: They upset the corn Huskers. There's your bulletin board material.

2336
01:57:42,600 --> 01:57:44,600
Speaker 9: Big game for Nebraska as they try to get their

2337
01:57:44,640 --> 01:57:47,280
Speaker 9: CFP hopes back on track. I think they cover against

2338
01:57:47,320 --> 01:57:50,400
Speaker 9: Party and I'm going over Vandy and Bama over fifty

2339
01:57:50,440 --> 01:57:54,640
Speaker 9: five and a half. Both offenses hunting explosives, the ego Pavia.

2340
01:57:54,720 --> 01:57:57,520
Speaker 9: I love this kid plays football without announce of fear.

2341
01:57:57,600 --> 01:58:00,560
Speaker 9: Simpson is a legit Heisman candidate, and there's some juice

2342
01:58:00,560 --> 01:58:02,760
Speaker 9: to this game. Over fifty five and a half, Bandy

2343
01:58:02,800 --> 01:58:04,120
Speaker 9: and Memma, all right.

2344
01:58:04,160 --> 01:58:08,160
Speaker 7: I start us off with the Manning Lagway Bowl, Texas.

2345
01:58:08,160 --> 01:58:12,840
Speaker 7: They've gotten extremely strong defense Florida. They're not slouches on

2346
01:58:12,920 --> 01:58:16,200
Speaker 7: that side of the ball, and Manning is breaking in

2347
01:58:16,360 --> 01:58:19,760
Speaker 7: his season still as as he takes over as the

2348
01:58:19,800 --> 01:58:24,680
Speaker 7: starter with Tejas, Florida's offense is dreadful. That's four reasons

2349
01:58:24,720 --> 01:58:27,520
Speaker 7: to take the under. I'm taking the first half under,

2350
01:58:27,680 --> 01:58:30,000
Speaker 7: So give me under twenty one and a half points.

2351
01:58:30,000 --> 01:58:33,120
Speaker 4: In Florida, Texas, Boise State quarterback.

2352
01:58:33,000 --> 01:58:34,360
Speaker 6: I think it's twenty.

2353
01:58:34,440 --> 01:58:36,720
Speaker 4: Is it twenty? Are you okay with that? Yeah? Give

2354
01:58:36,760 --> 01:58:39,680
Speaker 4: me twenty and a half. I'll take it. I'll take it. Yeah.

2355
01:58:39,760 --> 01:58:41,040
Speaker 7: I don't think a lot of points are going to

2356
01:58:41,080 --> 01:58:42,960
Speaker 7: be scored in that game. Thank you for the correction.

2357
01:58:43,560 --> 01:58:49,640
Speaker 7: Boise State facing Notre Dame QB of Maddox Madson. His

2358
01:58:50,440 --> 01:58:54,080
Speaker 7: line on the passing yardage is two fifteen and a half. Look,

2359
01:58:54,120 --> 01:58:56,440
Speaker 7: the market is telling you points will be scored. The

2360
01:58:56,440 --> 01:58:59,240
Speaker 7: total is up to sixty three and a half points

2361
01:58:59,360 --> 01:59:03,480
Speaker 7: mean passing yardage. Madson hasn't thrown under two fifteen all

2362
01:59:03,680 --> 01:59:09,280
Speaker 7: season long. He's gonna go over that mark. Alabama Vandy, Okay,

2363
01:59:09,680 --> 01:59:13,080
Speaker 7: the over is in play here. Fifty six and a

2364
01:59:13,160 --> 01:59:15,120
Speaker 7: half is where that numbers at right now?

2365
01:59:15,520 --> 01:59:16,680
Speaker 4: Diega Pavia.

2366
01:59:16,760 --> 01:59:19,120
Speaker 7: He's gonna pick up some explosives in the past game.

2367
01:59:19,160 --> 01:59:21,600
Speaker 7: He can hurt you with his like bamouth defense. Gives

2368
01:59:21,680 --> 01:59:24,360
Speaker 7: up a bunch of points that haven't been able to

2369
01:59:24,440 --> 01:59:25,640
Speaker 7: keep people out of the end.

2370
01:59:25,720 --> 01:59:27,760
Speaker 4: Zon Vandy is also an.

2371
01:59:27,800 --> 01:59:33,080
Speaker 7: Average passing defense, and I'll say this, Ty Simpson looks

2372
01:59:33,120 --> 01:59:35,800
Speaker 7: like a Heisman finalist, so I think points will be

2373
01:59:35,840 --> 01:59:38,720
Speaker 7: scored fifty six and a half. I feel like the

2374
01:59:39,120 --> 01:59:41,600
Speaker 7: total can sail pass this, So give me the over

2375
01:59:41,640 --> 01:59:42,560
Speaker 7: there as well.

2376
01:59:43,160 --> 01:59:45,760
Speaker 5: Okay, I will.

2377
01:59:45,800 --> 01:59:47,560
Speaker 6: I will go with an under as well. Rich I'm

2378
01:59:47,600 --> 01:59:50,560
Speaker 6: with you. I gave this out in the parlay platter.

2379
01:59:50,680 --> 01:59:51,200
Speaker 6: I like it.

2380
01:59:51,240 --> 01:59:53,680
Speaker 5: I just think that there's a lot of defensive talent

2381
01:59:54,080 --> 01:59:57,480
Speaker 5: and I don't trust either offense, especially the DJ Lagway offense.

2382
01:59:57,520 --> 02:00:00,720
Speaker 5: Give me Texas Florida under forty two, two and a half.

2383
02:00:01,560 --> 02:00:03,840
Speaker 5: I'm laying the six and a half with Louisville. I

2384
02:00:03,880 --> 02:00:06,760
Speaker 5: think it's the stinkiest line of the week, but it

2385
02:00:06,800 --> 02:00:10,200
Speaker 5: does make some sense. Virginia off a very emotional win

2386
02:00:10,360 --> 02:00:12,280
Speaker 5: double overtime against Florida State.

2387
02:00:13,040 --> 02:00:15,560
Speaker 6: We had Florida State seminals getting.

2388
02:00:15,240 --> 02:00:18,600
Speaker 5: Bowled over by a tidal wave of fans rushing the field,

2389
02:00:18,640 --> 02:00:21,600
Speaker 5: storming the field, right, So I'm just gonna be hard

2390
02:00:21,600 --> 02:00:25,280
Speaker 5: to crank it up again. Such a it's letdown city.

2391
02:00:25,320 --> 02:00:27,600
Speaker 5: This is a letdown spot if there ever was one.

2392
02:00:28,240 --> 02:00:30,240
Speaker 5: And you look at Virginia. They allow a lot of

2393
02:00:30,280 --> 02:00:33,560
Speaker 5: big plays and they allow you to score touchdowns in

2394
02:00:33,600 --> 02:00:36,320
Speaker 5: the red zone. So I'll take Miller Moss, I'll take

2395
02:00:36,400 --> 02:00:37,839
Speaker 5: Louisville minus the six.

2396
02:00:37,720 --> 02:00:39,880
Speaker 6: And a half, and I'm rolling with my guy.

2397
02:00:40,440 --> 02:00:44,280
Speaker 5: Give me Notre Dame wide receiver Malachai fields over fifty

2398
02:00:44,360 --> 02:00:47,080
Speaker 5: three and a half receiving yards. He is a fifty

2399
02:00:47,640 --> 02:00:52,200
Speaker 5: yard receiving metronome. They're gonna be scoring points. They're gonna

2400
02:00:52,240 --> 02:00:55,240
Speaker 5: be gaining yards against Boise State. You need style points

2401
02:00:55,240 --> 02:00:56,360
Speaker 5: as well. Give me Malachai.