1 00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:04,519 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcasts. 2 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these 3 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:16,599 Speaker 2: people over for a second. 4 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:29,800 Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network podcast. 5 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 1: We are presented by bet MGM Brendan Laschen and the 6 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 1: host chair, joined by Billy Ward and Sean Zarrillo. That 7 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 1: means it's time for another round of UFC betting previews 8 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:44,760 Speaker 1: UFC Best Bets for UFC Louisville down at the KFC 9 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:47,960 Speaker 1: Young Center in Louisville, Kentucky. We'll make our way through 10 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 1: the card, look at the fight of the night, some underdogs, 11 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 1: some props, and we'll get out of here with some 12 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 1: best bets. We will begin, gentlemen, with the middleweight main 13 00:00:56,000 --> 00:01:00,440 Speaker 1: event on the main card, Jared cannon Ear against Sardine 14 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:02,880 Speaker 1: imov Off Sean Zrello. 15 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 3: I will turn to you first. 16 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 1: When you take a look at this, it's a very 17 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:09,280 Speaker 1: tight line. It's basically about a pick them canon here 18 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:12,280 Speaker 1: just over plus money plus one oh five imv off 19 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:15,080 Speaker 1: at minus one twenty five. How do you assess the 20 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:18,039 Speaker 1: head to head and how would you like to bet it? 21 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 4: It's not going to be betting the fight to end 22 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,400 Speaker 4: inside the distance at plus money. Middleweight bouts in the 23 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 4: UFC typically end inside the distance at about a fifty 24 00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:28,120 Speaker 4: nine percent clip. That would be minus one forty Imply do odds. 25 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:31,319 Speaker 4: I made the line closer to minus one twenty five 26 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:34,200 Speaker 4: round fight. Obviously, typically guys who make it to five 27 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:37,039 Speaker 4: round fights, fighters who fight in main events are a 28 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:39,400 Speaker 4: bit more durable than your average fighter. But you also 29 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:42,119 Speaker 4: have the additional two rounds, you know, adding into that. 30 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:45,320 Speaker 4: So I think it's reasonable to assume a similar finish 31 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 4: rate as your average middleweight fight, or you know, your 32 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 4: average fight for that division, when you're assessing a five 33 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 4: round fight. But I don't necessarily think even though both 34 00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 4: of these guys have been to decisions several times, a 35 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 4: mob of never finished in the UFC, but Kennanear has 36 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 4: been knocked down in several of his recent fights. He's 37 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 4: also forty years old. He looks twenty eight. He looks 38 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 4: like the younger potentially the two guys. If you put 39 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:10,040 Speaker 4: them side by side and he said who's younger, I'll 40 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 4: give you a million bucks. I'd have a real tough 41 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:15,560 Speaker 4: decision to make. Jared Kennaneer is in phenomenal shape, like 42 00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:21,080 Speaker 4: he's the most like physically well looking forty year old man. 43 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 4: I think I've seen you know in the UFC. He's 44 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:26,079 Speaker 4: tremendous shape, one of the best forty year old athletes 45 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:29,080 Speaker 4: we've had in the UFC. But he's coming off MCL surgery. 46 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 4: He was supposed to fight Roman de LEDs last winter 47 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 4: over October December, ended up having MCL surgery pulled out 48 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 4: of the fight. 49 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:38,919 Speaker 5: This is his. 50 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 4: First match back and looked great in his last fight 51 00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:45,360 Speaker 4: against Marvin VCTORI landed two hundred plus strikes, attempted forward 52 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 4: to plus strike attempts, landed a few takedowns. So he 53 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:50,640 Speaker 4: has a ton of volume, you know, even though he's 54 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:54,120 Speaker 4: in his late thirties, now forty tons of output for 55 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 4: Jared kennaneer insane power. If Marvin Vctory had any less 56 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 4: er ability than like one of the best of the UFC, 57 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 4: he would have been put out in that fight. And 58 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 4: I have concerns about a Mavov's pace and his gas 59 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:08,840 Speaker 4: tank in a longer fight. I think he tends to 60 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:10,639 Speaker 4: fade a little bit. I think he tends to quit 61 00:03:11,080 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 4: a little bit, and if he doesn't have grappling success here, 62 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 4: I think cannon ear might run away with it in 63 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:19,520 Speaker 4: terms of volumes. So this is mostly gonna be Cannoneer's 64 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 4: long straight punches. He has a two inch reach advantage 65 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:24,760 Speaker 4: against the mobovs heap kicks. I think Mavov can absolutely 66 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:27,680 Speaker 4: have success to the boxing too, could certainly hurt Cannoneer, 67 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:31,040 Speaker 4: but I think the longer this fight goes, the more 68 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 4: Cannonar has success here. So I like the fight and 69 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:37,040 Speaker 4: inside the distance free fight plus money. I also like 70 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 4: cannon ear live, maybe not necessarily after the first round, 71 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 4: but after the first. 72 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 5: Couple of rounds. 73 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 4: I do think, you know, you could get a good 74 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 4: look at his knee, get a good look at the 75 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 4: way he's moving, probably get past the point where he's 76 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 4: typically knocked down. When he's getting knocked down, it is 77 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 4: early or in that first round, and then he sort 78 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 4: of rallies back. So like the fight at the end, 79 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 4: inside the distance and then targeting a Canadar live vet 80 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 4: terms of round, Robin Betts, I'll probably play cannony or 81 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 4: at knockout at four to one. 82 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 1: Okay, Billy, you had your UFC luck ratings, which are 83 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:10,000 Speaker 1: upright now. You had those earlier in the week, and 84 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 1: the lines actually moved a little bit more in your 85 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 1: favor in terms of getting a better price Onny mav Off. 86 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 6: Yeah, and for me it's ninety percent of this is 87 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 6: just about the age. Like Sean makes really good points, 88 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 6: He's looked great, and in a weird way, I almost 89 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:25,679 Speaker 6: continue to get better into his late thirties. For Jared Cannoneer, 90 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:27,919 Speaker 6: as he came down from heavyweight and light heavyweight and 91 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 6: all that. At the same time, he's now forty and 92 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:33,240 Speaker 6: we haven't seen him in a year, So the odds 93 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:35,840 Speaker 6: of that age related cliff having happened since we last 94 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:37,719 Speaker 6: saw him go up and up the longer it is 95 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:39,760 Speaker 6: between fights, so I really don't love that. 96 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 3: For cannon Ear, plus the MCL surgery, that's a big concern. 97 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:45,600 Speaker 6: And then on the other side, everyone's talking about cannon 98 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 6: Ere being old and Mavov is only twenty eight. In theory, 99 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:50,719 Speaker 6: he should still be getting more athletic, he should be 100 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 6: getting better as he gets deeper into his career. So 101 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 6: it's as much about his progression for me as it 102 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:59,599 Speaker 6: is Cannoneer's potential regression, which to be fair, we haven't 103 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 6: really seen yet, but it's coming. Right he's forty, probably 104 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:05,800 Speaker 6: a bad knee, long time out, Like. 105 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 3: There's a lot of issues with that one. 106 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:09,920 Speaker 6: If they were closer in age, I'd say this line 107 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:12,280 Speaker 6: should be about flipped, would make Cannoneer about minus one 108 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 6: twenty minus one twenty five. I think there's just enough 109 00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:18,760 Speaker 6: probability that Cannoneers on the downslope that I'll take the 110 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 6: minus one twenty on a mov off. And the other 111 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:23,279 Speaker 6: factor here, I think it almost reminds me of Roman 112 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:25,560 Speaker 6: hopy Lov a little bit last week, and that we're 113 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 6: expecting a striking match, but one guy is somewhat quietly 114 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:31,719 Speaker 6: from Dagistan and can also wrestle really well if and 115 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:34,320 Speaker 6: when he needs to, and that's a mov off. It'll 116 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 6: be tough to do that against Jared Cannoneer, to be fair, 117 00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 6: But if he can mix in a takedown or two 118 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:41,559 Speaker 6: sap some of that power, I think it'll be pretty 119 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:43,280 Speaker 6: smooth sailing after that point. 120 00:05:43,279 --> 00:05:46,800 Speaker 3: Although I'm worried about the power of Cannonir coming back, I. 121 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:49,600 Speaker 4: Could actually see Cannoneir potentially mixing and takedowns too. I mean, 122 00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 4: he did it to Vittori, who I think most people 123 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 4: would have considered the better wrestler than canadi Are going 124 00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 4: into that fight. 125 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 5: He likes the cage clinch or cage push a bunch too. 126 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:00,840 Speaker 4: So that's where my concern is with my over or 127 00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:02,800 Speaker 4: am I sorry with my under my five ten inside 128 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:04,720 Speaker 4: the distance. I just get worried that they end up 129 00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:07,800 Speaker 4: like cage pushing, you know, for multiple rounds, and there's 130 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:10,160 Speaker 4: enough done that they don't necessarily separate and put the 131 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:13,359 Speaker 4: back in striking range. But yeah, I mean Billy Billy 132 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:15,559 Speaker 4: with the excellent point regard of the age, and I'm 133 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:17,679 Speaker 4: glad to bring this up, but that there's a number 134 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:19,600 Speaker 4: you can put on it, you know, younger fighter. When 135 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 4: there's an eleven age eleven year age gap between M 136 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:24,680 Speaker 4: and a opponents, younger fighter wins seventy one percent of 137 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 4: the time at average odds closer to minus one fifty, 138 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:29,719 Speaker 4: which is sixty percent. So there's an eleven percent advantage 139 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:32,679 Speaker 4: compared to the average odds just taking the younger fighter 140 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:35,600 Speaker 4: when there's a decade between opponents. So yeah, absolutely the 141 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 4: age factor is huge here, and I think that's that's 142 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:40,920 Speaker 4: just another reason to if you're going to target canon ere, 143 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:43,839 Speaker 4: I think just weight live like I prefers cardio advantage, 144 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:45,719 Speaker 4: but you also get to see how he looks earlier 145 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:47,440 Speaker 4: in the fight before he decide to enter it off. 146 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 6: And to be I think probably the age factor when 147 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 6: it's twenty eight and forty specifically, that might be like 148 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:56,520 Speaker 6: the worst point in that curve, right, because that's when 149 00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:58,480 Speaker 6: the younger fighter is just coming into his prime and 150 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:00,560 Speaker 6: the older is just coming out. We have a fight 151 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 6: later between a nineteen year old and a thirty one 152 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:05,520 Speaker 6: year old or whatever, and they're both kind of equidistant 153 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:07,279 Speaker 6: from their prime, just on opposite sides of it. That 154 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 6: one's probably not as strong of an indicator as it 155 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 6: is when it's like beginning of your prime. 156 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:14,480 Speaker 3: Definitely pasted it. 157 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 6: That's probably like the worst point to be on that 158 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:18,560 Speaker 6: age curve would be my guess. 159 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 4: Complete lyagu or the only pushback I'd give with the 160 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 4: nineteen year olds. If you know, if you're making it 161 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:26,120 Speaker 4: to this level at nineteen, you're probably like sublimely talented, right, 162 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:30,200 Speaker 4: So there's sort of a you know, there's probably like 163 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:33,200 Speaker 4: a beginning to that age curve where like if you're 164 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 4: nineteen twenty, like it might be an even higher win rate. 165 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 4: But yeah, then once you get into the early twenties, 166 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 4: when you're probably start you know, supposed to start making 167 00:07:40,400 --> 00:07:43,000 Speaker 4: it at this level and you're facing somebody who's thirty. 168 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 4: You know, if you're twenty two facing a thirty year old, 169 00:07:44,960 --> 00:07:46,920 Speaker 4: twenty two facing a thirty one year old, Yeah, I'd 170 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 4: probably give the advantage of the older crowd of there 171 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 4: as well. 172 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 6: And also weight class matters, right Like we always talk 173 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 6: about the lighter weight classes being much deeper decline than 174 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:56,840 Speaker 6: Jared Cannon here at middlewaight. Absolutely, you know, if this 175 00:07:56,920 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 6: doesn't go well for him, maybe he goes back to 176 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:00,720 Speaker 6: light heavyweight to fight some older, slow guys. I could 177 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:03,000 Speaker 6: certainly see that as being the way to go for 178 00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 6: him career wise. 179 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:06,520 Speaker 4: I think him and Jessica Drodge the only fighters with 180 00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:10,640 Speaker 4: knockouts across three different weight classes, So pretty impressive stat 181 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:13,600 Speaker 4: And what an athlete to be able to get all 182 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:15,520 Speaker 4: the way down from heavyweight and just look like this 183 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 4: good late in his career and seemingly getting better. I 184 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:20,080 Speaker 4: don't know if it's the crystals that he loves, you know, 185 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 4: his power crystals, or what he's doing, but yeah, what 186 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:23,160 Speaker 4: an athlete. 187 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 5: Jeric Kennedy is excellent chick. 188 00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:29,000 Speaker 1: Excellent chick. All right, let's go to the welterweight. We've 189 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 1: got a good one here that you guys are eyeing 190 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:34,239 Speaker 1: the fight of the night. Miguel Beza and Puna Soriano 191 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,960 Speaker 1: sean same question. How do you assess it and where's 192 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:39,439 Speaker 1: the betting angle for you? 193 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:44,080 Speaker 4: Miguel Bayza has a championship caliber skill set, but his 194 00:08:44,280 --> 00:08:47,840 Speaker 4: chin is going to prevent him from getting there. He's 195 00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 4: taken a couple of years off, took a couple of knockouts, 196 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:52,199 Speaker 4: took a couple of years off. It's been competing and 197 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:54,840 Speaker 4: grappling tournaments. He's a very well rounded skill set. The 198 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:59,640 Speaker 4: problem is he didn't offensively grapple enough, probably to this 199 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 4: point in the UFC. He really likes to strike. He 200 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 4: has phenomenal kicks. He's put away fighters with leg kicks. 201 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:09,040 Speaker 4: He's the taller and longer fighter in this matchup, and 202 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:13,320 Speaker 4: Puna Soriano is coming down a division. Also miss weight 203 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:16,240 Speaker 4: briefly on the scales this morning, as Billy said, missed 204 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:17,720 Speaker 4: by a half a pound and then had to weigh 205 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:20,960 Speaker 4: in again. But don't like that weightcut for him, considering 206 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:23,840 Speaker 4: Soriano's game typically falls apart after the first round. 207 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:24,679 Speaker 5: He has bad cardio. 208 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:27,320 Speaker 4: He's a big hitter, but he's low volume and he 209 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:30,719 Speaker 4: has bad cardio, and he comes from a wrestling background. 210 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 4: He's had fights in the UFC where he's gotten thoroughly 211 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 4: out wrestled by guys who I wouldn't have considered better 212 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 4: wrestlers going into the fight. 213 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:41,079 Speaker 5: Maybe better rattlers, but not better wrestlers. 214 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:44,720 Speaker 4: So don't really see much in Soriano's game asides from 215 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:48,520 Speaker 4: that knockout power. I'm curious to see how that knockout 216 00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:51,520 Speaker 4: power translates moving down a division, but I don't expect 217 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 4: his cardio to handle the additional weightcut particularly well, so 218 00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 4: I expect Poona, as he typically does, to tire out 219 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:00,400 Speaker 4: after round one. He was finished in round two past 220 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 4: two losses, and Baiaza is similarly like a guy who 221 00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:05,680 Speaker 4: builds into the fight. I also expect him to take 222 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:08,439 Speaker 4: the first round here a little bit conservatively, considering he's 223 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:11,120 Speaker 4: coming off of those knockouts. Take maybe more of a 224 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 4: grappling oriented approach that would be interesting to see. But 225 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 4: he's gonna work those leg kicks. He's going to pick 226 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 4: a part at Soriano from the outside, and then eventually 227 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:21,240 Speaker 4: as the fight goes longer, he should have a severe 228 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 4: cardio advantage, and I expect him to win in either 229 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 4: rounds two or three, so big numbers on bias a 230 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:30,320 Speaker 4: round two plus five to fifty, round three plus eleven hundred. 231 00:10:30,559 --> 00:10:33,200 Speaker 4: Probably also going to play inside the distance prop at 232 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 4: a round to pick a price either in the round 233 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 4: robin or as a straight bet as well. But I 234 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 4: like Biaza to get this done in round two or 235 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 4: round three, and hopefully those chin issues are behind him 236 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:46,440 Speaker 4: after two years off because I really like his skill 237 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 4: set and I hope to see him keep getting bigger 238 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 4: and bigger fights because I think he's very talented. 239 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:52,439 Speaker 5: Also, is a great nickname, Caramel Thunder. 240 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 3: That's good, Billy. 241 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:59,680 Speaker 6: You have chin concerns, jin and inactivity concerns, I will 242 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 6: say in Jean brought it up. I love when these 243 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:03,240 Speaker 6: guys who are kind of giving the brain a break 244 00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:04,679 Speaker 6: and not getting hit for a little while go and 245 00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 6: compete in these grappling tournaments. You're still doing something of 246 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:10,720 Speaker 6: a camp. You're still getting active competition. Like as someone 247 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 6: who's done some grappling tournaments lately, you think you're replicating 248 00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:17,440 Speaker 6: that in the gym. You're not when it's not your friend, 249 00:11:17,480 --> 00:11:18,960 Speaker 6: when it's not the guys that you train with all 250 00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 6: the time, and someone else's really out there trying to win, 251 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 6: so that makes me feel much better about Baeza, who 252 00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 6: should be the better grappler here. Anyway, if you are 253 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:30,439 Speaker 6: not planning on watching this one, which I wouldn't be 254 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:34,079 Speaker 6: grudge anyone on a Saturday night, I think by his 255 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:36,760 Speaker 6: inside the distance or late stuff that Sean pointed out 256 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:39,439 Speaker 6: is probably the sharp way to play it. Or you 257 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 6: can do some of the split round props stuff like that, 258 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:43,880 Speaker 6: or same game parlays with over a certain amount of time. 259 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 6: I think live is probably the way I'm gonna play it, though, 260 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:49,800 Speaker 6: just because I'm worried to gets knocked out, and if 261 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:51,719 Speaker 6: he's gonna get knocked out, it's probably within the first 262 00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:54,280 Speaker 6: two three minutes. I don't even know that you necessarily 263 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:55,920 Speaker 6: need to wait for the end of the first round, 264 00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:58,400 Speaker 6: especially if it's going his way, But I just want 265 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 6: to see him either eat shot or two or Puna 266 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,959 Speaker 6: take that first big, deep, heavy breath, and then I'm 267 00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 6: gonna come in on by his Hopefully it's not a 268 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 6: horrible line at that point, so that's gonna make my decision. 269 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 6: But kind of a lot of stuff I want to 270 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:13,199 Speaker 6: bet on this one, so if I end up missing 271 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:14,880 Speaker 6: out on some of these waiting for live I'll be 272 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 6: okay with it. 273 00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:18,200 Speaker 4: Also want to see the approach he takes too, you know, 274 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:21,439 Speaker 4: make sure that he is a little bit more conservative 275 00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:23,400 Speaker 4: with it. He was knocked out by Ks Williams. He 276 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 4: was winning that fight. Then he came back five months 277 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 4: later against Andre Fiallo and they got in a dirty 278 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:31,319 Speaker 4: boxing exchange and he's like, let's go uppercut for uppercut, 279 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 4: you know, face to face in a phone booth, and 280 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:36,640 Speaker 4: he got knocked out. It's like, dude, you're a huge favorite. 281 00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 4: Why are you trading uppercuts in the pocket with this 282 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:41,440 Speaker 4: guy who his only win condition is, you know, to 283 00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:44,040 Speaker 4: knock you out. So yeah, that was a very bad 284 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:46,880 Speaker 4: fight IQU mistake for Peza and another fight where he 285 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:49,319 Speaker 4: was favored. But I think people see the skill set, 286 00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:51,280 Speaker 4: they see the talent. They just want to see the 287 00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 4: fight IQ and the durability to go with it because 288 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 4: if it's all there like he is, he is the 289 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 4: entire skill set. Just worried about the chin and see, 290 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:01,439 Speaker 4: maybe maybe give him a pass after a couple of 291 00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 4: years off, maybe he can make. 292 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 5: Another run, you know, coming back after a couple of years. 293 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:07,480 Speaker 4: So I'm hopeful, and I think he's a very talented 294 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:08,440 Speaker 4: and fun fighter or to watch. 295 00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:12,160 Speaker 1: Okay, very good. So they're your main event and fight 296 00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 1: to the night breakdowns. Let's go to underdogs. How is 297 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:15,800 Speaker 1: this week for a dog? 298 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:16,199 Speaker 3: Sean? 299 00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:18,600 Speaker 4: I think it could be a really, really good week 300 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:20,719 Speaker 4: for underdogs. There's a lot that I'm eyeing. There's a 301 00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 4: couple that Billy are eyeing. Billy's eyeing, including his best bet. 302 00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:26,160 Speaker 4: So I'm just going to run down the list here 303 00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:29,000 Speaker 4: of all the underdogs I'm considering betting. Some I think 304 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:30,960 Speaker 4: are better live bets than pre fight bets. Some I 305 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:33,600 Speaker 4: think are better you know, small pre fight bets into 306 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:35,640 Speaker 4: a live bet. Some I think are just better betting 307 00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 4: straight into you know, the fight. So curious how Billy 308 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 4: reacts to some of these, but just gonna run down 309 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:43,719 Speaker 4: the list. Charlie Raggy at plus two hundred, one of 310 00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:46,800 Speaker 4: my preferred He's facing Carlos Protests, who's a dangerous striker. 311 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:49,800 Speaker 4: Protest is five inch taller, has a seven inch reach advantage. 312 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 4: But Raggy here to me, has all the grappling upside 313 00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:55,400 Speaker 4: at plus money, so I think he's worth a pre 314 00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:57,400 Speaker 4: fight bet at plus two hundred. I think he's worth 315 00:13:57,440 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 4: betting live after round one if he survives the damage 316 00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:04,600 Speaker 4: from protests. Dustin Stultzwoos is plus two thirty. He's facing 317 00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 4: Bruno Ferrara, who also is a dangerous striker. Ferra the 318 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:11,000 Speaker 4: much better athlete, much bigger puncher, but he's never wont 319 00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:12,600 Speaker 4: to fight past the six minute mark. I don't even 320 00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:14,840 Speaker 4: think he's been past the six minute mark in his 321 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:19,359 Speaker 4: professional career, So definitely a live bet on Stoltzfoos. Absolutely, 322 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:21,360 Speaker 4: he can fight for fifteen minutes. He can wrestle for 323 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 4: fifteen minutes. I just think there's a pretty good chance 324 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:27,000 Speaker 4: he's pretty stiff, it's not very good mover. I think 325 00:14:27,040 --> 00:14:29,000 Speaker 4: there's a decent chance he gets knocked out a round one. 326 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:32,240 Speaker 4: So probably small prefight on Stoltoos into a live bet 327 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 4: on Stoltzfoos Cody Stamen one that Billy is going to 328 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:37,360 Speaker 4: touch on, so I won't go too deep into it, 329 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 4: but grappling upside of plus money in a fight that 330 00:14:39,520 --> 00:14:42,000 Speaker 4: is heavily favored to go to a decision. He's faced 331 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 4: a much better shrink to schedule. His opponent has a 332 00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 4: nine inch reach advantage, and I don't love the damage 333 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:48,400 Speaker 4: that Staman does on the ground, so this could be 334 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 4: one of those where Staman gets more control, gets more takedowns, 335 00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 4: Laplis lands more strikes, and you get a wonky split decision. 336 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:56,880 Speaker 4: But getting plus two to forty on Stamen in a 337 00:14:56,920 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 4: fight likely to go to a decision likely to be 338 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 4: difficult to score, I think absolutely interesting. Denise Gomez miss 339 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 4: wait this morning, also by a half pound. Her opponent 340 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:08,560 Speaker 4: is ten and oh, has nine finishes and has one 341 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:12,920 Speaker 4: split decision on her record. I don't trust Moris Cardia, 342 00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 4: so if this fight extends, I think Gomez is live 343 00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:18,120 Speaker 4: after the first round, So another bet. You know Gomes 344 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:21,080 Speaker 4: probably pre fight small. I expect her to give up takedowns, 345 00:15:21,320 --> 00:15:23,600 Speaker 4: but if she's there after the first round, I think 346 00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 4: she's going to turn this into a scrap. So you 347 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:27,400 Speaker 4: probably get a better number after round one. Almost certainly 348 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 4: get a better number after round one, and I'd definitely 349 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 4: be targeting that live bet. But Denise Gomes I think 350 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 4: is live. Two more we got coming. So John Castaneda 351 00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 4: even money against Daniel Marcos. Marcus is fifteen and oh 352 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:42,400 Speaker 4: interested to see a fighter who's fifteen and oh, Ligne 353 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 4: it even money against John Castaneda, who to me is 354 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 4: a solid gatekeeper, like a really well rounded fighter, but 355 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:52,280 Speaker 4: doesn't do anything phenomenally. But he's the more proven guy here. 356 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:54,880 Speaker 4: This fight is also favored to go to a decision 357 00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 4: and about minus two fifteen, so again another close, competitive fight, 358 00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 4: favor to go to a decision. I think Underdog cast 359 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:03,440 Speaker 4: today to worth a look. And then finally Dominic Reyis. 360 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 4: We'll talk about that fight more in a moment. If 361 00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:09,120 Speaker 4: this is like how shot is Dominic Reyis? You know 362 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:12,800 Speaker 4: how shot is this chin? I believe he took some 363 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:16,640 Speaker 4: time off after his most recent knockout. If he doesn't 364 00:16:16,640 --> 00:16:18,880 Speaker 4: get knocked out, this is a fifty to fifty fight 365 00:16:18,880 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 4: at worst. If not favor Reyis, he's faced the better, 366 00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:24,520 Speaker 4: strictest schedule, he may be the more skill guy. I 367 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 4: think it's pretty competitive. It just comes down to how 368 00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 4: shot his chin is and you're getting plus two hundred 369 00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 4: on him in a fight that skill wise, I think 370 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:34,840 Speaker 4: is fifty to fifty aside from Reyes potentially having a 371 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 4: comprosed chin. So gonna be a lot of people betting 372 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 4: on Jacobe by knockout this weekend. I think it could 373 00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:42,920 Speaker 4: be a trap like Morono by knockout was last week 374 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 4: against Nico Price. We'll see, but it's a very similar 375 00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:48,240 Speaker 4: situation where you're just like, you see this guy, you 376 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:50,120 Speaker 4: expect his chin to be fully shot. You expect the 377 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 4: first time he get gets cracked, he goes down. But 378 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 4: what if he doesn't, he doesn't. I think it's competitive. 379 00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:57,680 Speaker 4: So Don Reyes plus two hundred interesting as well. 380 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:01,520 Speaker 1: First fight for Rayes since November of twenty twenty two. 381 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:06,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, it took three straight knockoutst ate those body kicks. 382 00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:09,119 Speaker 4: So he had a very close competitive fight with John Jones. 383 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:11,440 Speaker 4: A lot of people thought he won. I think Jones 384 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:13,920 Speaker 4: won three to two probably, but then he came back 385 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 4: lost the interim title fight against Yan Bilovich or that 386 00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:21,159 Speaker 4: might have been for a vacant title. Yeah, Ate some 387 00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:23,480 Speaker 4: body kicks ended up getting knocked out, but didn't get 388 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:26,760 Speaker 4: put out right, you know, bodykicks wore him down. Yon 389 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:30,800 Speaker 4: knocked him down, the referee stepped in. Then he knocked 390 00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:34,040 Speaker 4: out Uri Prahatchka, but Uri popped back up because he's 391 00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:36,920 Speaker 4: superhuman and landed that spinning elbow on Dom. That was 392 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:39,200 Speaker 4: a bad knockout. And then he came back a little 393 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 4: bit too quick, fought Ryan Span got Chao bad again. 394 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 5: So yeah, I just. 395 00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:45,360 Speaker 4: Think people don't think he can take a punch anymore. 396 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:46,960 Speaker 4: But maybe with a little bit of time off to 397 00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:50,119 Speaker 4: heal that brain, he got himself back in fighting shape. 398 00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:50,680 Speaker 5: So we'll see. 399 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:52,399 Speaker 4: You know, It's just not one of those things that 400 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:55,040 Speaker 4: you know until the guy gets hit. But everybody is 401 00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 4: betting Jacoby by Ko this weekend, and I think it 402 00:17:58,080 --> 00:17:58,880 Speaker 4: could be a drop. 403 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:01,960 Speaker 1: Okay, Moron Reyes. Sean said in a few minutes, Billy, 404 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:04,199 Speaker 1: you do have some underdog crossover. 405 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 6: Yeah, a lot of these, And you know, Sean and 406 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:09,240 Speaker 6: I frequently talk about it. With women's fights that we 407 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 6: expect to go to a decision, we say it's going 408 00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:13,119 Speaker 6: to be touched at score. Judges don't know what they're doing. 409 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:15,399 Speaker 6: You're getting big plus money. I think two of the 410 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:17,399 Speaker 6: longer odds areund men's fights, and they're the two that 411 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 6: I'm looking at here. It's also really important to note 412 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:22,960 Speaker 6: that this event is in Kentucky. I can't remember the 413 00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:25,920 Speaker 6: last event we've had in Kentucky. When the UFC travels 414 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,800 Speaker 6: outside of their typical areas, that's when the judging gets 415 00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:31,840 Speaker 6: especially wonky. I mean, somebody last week gave Paulo costa 416 00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:35,159 Speaker 6: like four rounds in the fight when they were in 417 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,879 Speaker 6: New Jersey. There was some horrible judging. We got lucky 418 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:40,639 Speaker 6: in that it didn't actually give the wrong guy that win. 419 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:42,679 Speaker 6: I didn't think in any fights last weekend, but it 420 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:46,359 Speaker 6: was super close and scary on that So to that 421 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:49,080 Speaker 6: I like Cody Stamon perfect example of what we're talking about, 422 00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:52,200 Speaker 6: likely to go to decision. Lapolis has been taken down 423 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:54,720 Speaker 6: like seven or eight times in his two fights since 424 00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:58,040 Speaker 6: he came back to the UFC. Stamen was originally a wrestler. Short, 425 00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 6: little stocky guy built for wrestling. Doesn't always do it, 426 00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 6: which annoys me, But like if he does the thing he's. 427 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:05,800 Speaker 3: Good at and his opponent's bad at. 428 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:08,120 Speaker 6: And just does that and doesn't try to get cute, 429 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:11,840 Speaker 6: pretty clear path the victory at big plus money. The 430 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:14,200 Speaker 6: other one I really really like here is Jesse Butler. 431 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 6: He's moved all the way up to plus five hundred. 432 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:18,680 Speaker 6: Jesse Butler is the guy who stepped in on like 433 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:20,800 Speaker 6: two days notice to get knocked out by Jim Miller 434 00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:21,680 Speaker 6: a couple events ago. 435 00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:24,399 Speaker 3: It was his UFC debut. He had three days noticed 436 00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:26,919 Speaker 3: that was two weight classes up from where he's fighting 437 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 3: now way smaller, fighting the guy with the most fights 438 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 3: in UFC history. We don't know that he's bad. 439 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 6: We just know that he wasn't prepared for that moment 440 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:37,600 Speaker 6: that he found himself in at the time. He's fighting 441 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:41,200 Speaker 6: Brad Katona, who I continue to talk about on this show, 442 00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:44,919 Speaker 6: recent winner of the Ultimate Fighter twice, actually two of 443 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:47,320 Speaker 6: the recent seasons. I don't think those guys are very 444 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:49,840 Speaker 6: good because the more talented fighters come in through the 445 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:53,400 Speaker 6: Contender series. Between his two runs in the UFC, Katona 446 00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 6: is officially three and three. Two of those three wins 447 00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:59,919 Speaker 6: were in the championship bout of the show against an 448 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,159 Speaker 6: other guy who only got in because of the Ultimate Fighter, 449 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:04,919 Speaker 6: So I don't really look at those as true USC fights, 450 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:06,720 Speaker 6: which would put him at one and three by my 451 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:10,200 Speaker 6: fuzzy math here and then Katona's got his weird super 452 00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:13,479 Speaker 6: short arms just trying to outpoint you thing that's not 453 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:15,719 Speaker 6: gonna it doesn't play well to the judges in general. 454 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:18,160 Speaker 3: I don't think, especially these weird. 455 00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:20,480 Speaker 6: Judges, that we have no idea who they are, how 456 00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 6: accurate they're going to be. Butler's probably gonna be a 457 00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:24,760 Speaker 6: little bit more aggressive, gonna be the bigger guy at 458 00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:27,760 Speaker 6: one thirty five versus seeing him as the smaller. 459 00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:29,680 Speaker 3: Guy five to one is just crazy on him. 460 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:32,120 Speaker 6: You know, I would play him at like plus two 461 00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 6: fifty if that was the line. 462 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:35,919 Speaker 3: So at plus five hundred this feels like a steal. 463 00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:37,919 Speaker 6: Obviously, only bet in like half a unit on it 464 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 6: because we're getting such a big return, But very excited 465 00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 6: about this one. 466 00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:43,400 Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast Everybody Is Brought to You by 467 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:46,320 Speaker 1: bet MGM used the bonus code action when signing up 468 00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:48,640 Speaker 1: to get up to fifteen hundred dollars back and bonus 469 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:50,720 Speaker 1: bets if your first bet does not win. 470 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:51,680 Speaker 5: For new users in. 471 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 1: Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 472 00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:01,600 Speaker 1: New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, 473 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:04,320 Speaker 1: and Wyoming, terms and conditions apply. 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That's 494 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:08,879 Speaker 1: Omaha Steaks dot Com with promo code action at checkout 495 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:12,680 Speaker 1: to save on exclusive packages starting at just eighty nine dollars. 496 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,159 Speaker 1: Sit over to props and Zilla, We'll pick it up 497 00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:19,160 Speaker 1: on Dominic reyes and how that where you see value 498 00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:20,080 Speaker 1: on the prop market. 499 00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:22,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, the over two and a half rounds and also 500 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:24,679 Speaker 4: Rays by decision of plus six hundred. I think the 501 00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:27,040 Speaker 4: decision lines for Rays and Jacoby should be flipped. I 502 00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 4: saw Jacoby at about plus two to fifty by decision 503 00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:30,760 Speaker 4: and Rays at about. 504 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:31,320 Speaker 5: Plus six hundred. 505 00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,680 Speaker 4: I think Jacoby's you know, knockout prop should be even 506 00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,640 Speaker 4: money and his decision prop should be four to one. 507 00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,119 Speaker 4: And I think both of them should have pretty equal 508 00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:42,560 Speaker 4: decision equity. You know, I don't think it should be 509 00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:45,240 Speaker 4: plus t fifty and plus six hundred for Reis. I 510 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 4: think they should both be about plus four hundred plus 511 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:49,840 Speaker 4: four fifty to one by decision. So I made this 512 00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:53,640 Speaker 4: fight to go to a decision closer to I want 513 00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:55,320 Speaker 4: to say, forty forty five percent of the time. 514 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:56,359 Speaker 5: So getting me over two. 515 00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 4: And a half at about plus one twenty five was 516 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:01,880 Speaker 4: within range for me. And then Rayes by decision will 517 00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:03,919 Speaker 4: be a round robin bet most likely, maybe I might 518 00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 4: even poke it small straight at plus six hundred. We'll 519 00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:08,080 Speaker 4: see what I end up doing with the money line 520 00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:11,080 Speaker 4: that'll determine whether I fire on Rayes by decision or not. 521 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:14,080 Speaker 4: But yeah, although sort of correlated, you know, if Rays 522 00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:17,560 Speaker 4: doesn't go down from the first few exchanges in this fight. 523 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,400 Speaker 4: I think it's very competitive, and I think it's very 524 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,239 Speaker 4: likely that he takes a decision if it goes off 525 00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 4: fifteen minutes. 526 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,560 Speaker 5: So definitely some. 527 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,560 Speaker 4: Juicy props, you know, the over two and a half 528 00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:31,639 Speaker 4: like not as much of a fun sweat at plus 529 00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:33,399 Speaker 4: one twenty five even a fight to go to a decision, 530 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,280 Speaker 4: it's like plus money, not the most fun sweat. You 531 00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:38,880 Speaker 4: almost would have wanted with Rays's shin. You almost would 532 00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:40,680 Speaker 4: have wanted the price that you got on that Morono 533 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:43,800 Speaker 4: price fight last week, which was like plus two hundred 534 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:45,360 Speaker 4: on the gtds. 535 00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:46,800 Speaker 5: So the price isn't as exciting. 536 00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:49,879 Speaker 4: I think that Ray's decision bet probably the best or 537 00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:52,480 Speaker 4: the most mispriced of these props. 538 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 1: How about you, Billy, where are you eyeing props for 539 00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:55,520 Speaker 1: the weekend? 540 00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:57,840 Speaker 3: Yeah? Real, because I didn't touch on it when we 541 00:23:57,840 --> 00:23:58,520 Speaker 3: were doing the underdog. 542 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:00,920 Speaker 6: I think rayes by decision and probably is the way 543 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:02,960 Speaker 6: if you're not betting it live, Like there's so many 544 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:04,640 Speaker 6: of these where I'm like to just wait and bet 545 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:04,920 Speaker 6: it live. 546 00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:05,879 Speaker 3: It's the better way to do it. 547 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,000 Speaker 6: But again, not everyone's watching, not everyone's comfortable doing it 548 00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 6: with the tape. 549 00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:12,639 Speaker 3: Delay if Reyes is not physically and mentally. 550 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:16,080 Speaker 6: Broken from the John Jones fight, which is debatable, He's 551 00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:18,880 Speaker 6: the way better fighter here, like he's more talented, more ability. 552 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:21,560 Speaker 3: So yeah, I love that angle. If you had to 553 00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:22,520 Speaker 3: play at pre fight. 554 00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:25,359 Speaker 4: Decision only market too, I mean, considering it's such a 555 00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:28,200 Speaker 4: big dog here, or like the odds are so wide, 556 00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:30,480 Speaker 4: you know, in the two decision props, I think Ray's 557 00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:32,000 Speaker 4: decision only could be worth a look too. 558 00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:34,280 Speaker 6: Yeah, No, that makes yeah, any of those any of 559 00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:36,840 Speaker 6: that logic, I am totally with the one I'm looking at. 560 00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,879 Speaker 6: Sean mentioned this being on the underdog between Bruno Fajya 561 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:43,760 Speaker 6: and Dustin Stultzwiss. His longest fight, Bruno Fay's longest fight 562 00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:46,520 Speaker 6: in his career was like six minutes and eight seconds 563 00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 6: or something, win or lose. Right, he's nine and one 564 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:51,120 Speaker 6: is a pro. He comes out, guns blaze and somebody's 565 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:53,679 Speaker 6: getting knocked out. And then, as Shan point out, what 566 00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:57,560 Speaker 6: if he doesn't. Stultzwiss is I think probably a pretty 567 00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,520 Speaker 6: significantly better grappler here with a lot of some threat. 568 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,960 Speaker 6: Can't really wrestle though, so that's a little bit scary 569 00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,800 Speaker 6: on Soultswiss. But say they find their way to the ground. 570 00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:10,480 Speaker 6: Somewhere in there you can get Stultzwis' submission covered. 571 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:11,000 Speaker 3: Again. 572 00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:13,480 Speaker 6: Submissions are also luckier to happen early in the fights. 573 00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:15,320 Speaker 6: Guys aren't a sweaty, they got more juice left in 574 00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:17,840 Speaker 6: the arms to squeeze. There's a lot of reasons that 575 00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:20,080 Speaker 6: that's probably gonna end early. And then if we get 576 00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:21,520 Speaker 6: to the end of the first round or so and 577 00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:24,440 Speaker 6: Fajea has some big moments but doesn't put them away, 578 00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:27,560 Speaker 6: then I'm coming in on Stultzwis's live, which I don't. 579 00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:29,919 Speaker 6: I would be very surprised if you're not seeing a 580 00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,800 Speaker 6: better price after a round run on Stultzwis, assuming it 581 00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:36,159 Speaker 6: gets that far. So I like the minus one thirty 582 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:37,920 Speaker 6: on the under one and a half just because it's 583 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,399 Speaker 6: better odds than faeded by knockout, which I thought was 584 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:43,200 Speaker 6: a little bit surprising, because if he's gonna knock him out, 585 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,320 Speaker 6: that's probably when it happened. Then you can kind of 586 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:47,560 Speaker 6: cover your bases where if you don't get that under 587 00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:50,919 Speaker 6: one and a half, you're probably getting Stultzwiss, unless Bruno 588 00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:54,040 Speaker 6: Fijeda is somehow a cardio monster that we just haven't seen. 589 00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:55,760 Speaker 3: But that seems pretty unlikely. You know. 590 00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:57,960 Speaker 6: The actium is that if you don't know if a 591 00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:01,320 Speaker 6: guy's good at something, it's probably a weakness. Like you 592 00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:03,880 Speaker 6: can't say that for sure, but it's usually not if 593 00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:05,720 Speaker 6: they don't have some hidden talent that they're not showing 594 00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:07,640 Speaker 6: us because they want They're out here trying to win fights. 595 00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,760 Speaker 4: I think Stoltzfuss and Raggy both very likely to get 596 00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:14,280 Speaker 4: a better live price after round one. I just the 597 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,080 Speaker 4: reason why I want them a little bit pre fight 598 00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 4: is what if they land the takedown right away, you know, 599 00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 4: and they win the round, or at least they get 600 00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:24,000 Speaker 4: significant top time and put themselves out of trouble and 601 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:27,359 Speaker 4: show that they can consolidate that takedown for future rounds, 602 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:29,919 Speaker 4: like that price is gonna plummet and go closer to 603 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,480 Speaker 4: even money. So definitely want a little bit on both 604 00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:34,800 Speaker 4: pre fight, but absolutely I would expect to get a 605 00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:37,280 Speaker 4: better live price on both, and I think their win 606 00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,440 Speaker 4: condition is likely later both Racky and holds fous and 607 00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:43,040 Speaker 4: they're They're probably my two favorite of the underdogs that 608 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,840 Speaker 4: I listed out, but I will find a way to 609 00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:48,080 Speaker 4: bet on all six of the ones that I mentioned 610 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:49,960 Speaker 4: in some fashion. I think this is a good card 611 00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:52,920 Speaker 4: for underdogs. Billy even took the biggest underdog on the card, 612 00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:54,600 Speaker 4: and he has one more for his best bet, so 613 00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,800 Speaker 4: this could be a dog heavy weekend after the UFC 614 00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:00,320 Speaker 4: has been pretty chalky. It feels like a recently. 615 00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:03,639 Speaker 6: Yeah, the only reason I'm not coming in with the 616 00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:05,920 Speaker 6: pre fight bets on a is that I like live 617 00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:08,720 Speaker 6: is because I'm going to have so many underdogs anyway 618 00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 6: that I don't want, and then twenty units out here 619 00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,320 Speaker 6: and I'm still trying to add It's like, let's if 620 00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:16,600 Speaker 6: I I'd rather miss out on one because he did 621 00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:18,200 Speaker 6: too well early and go okay, we'll get the next 622 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:20,919 Speaker 6: one rather than just be over extended here all weekend. 623 00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:23,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, the undercovers you as well for that those outcomes, 624 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:25,680 Speaker 4: so it's you know, you're just doubling down at that point. 625 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:26,959 Speaker 4: Basic then fors one condition. 626 00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:31,920 Speaker 1: All right, gents, let's wrap with best bets, two sides, Zorilla. 627 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:32,679 Speaker 5: You can go first. 628 00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,480 Speaker 4: A little bit Klein at minus one thirty. This guy's 629 00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:37,960 Speaker 4: a walking pharmacy. I think he benefits from the post 630 00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:40,480 Speaker 4: Usada era of the UFC, but he also looks much 631 00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:43,640 Speaker 4: better since moving up to lightweight from one forty five. 632 00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:45,680 Speaker 5: He's added a lot of muscle. I think he has. 633 00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:48,680 Speaker 4: Better cardio at one fifty five. Thiago moist is his 634 00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:51,520 Speaker 4: face the better shrink the schedule faces on Makachev was 635 00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:54,600 Speaker 4: competitive with Makachev, took him down, but went to a 636 00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:58,560 Speaker 4: fourth round with Makachev. But Klein is the much better shriker. 637 00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:00,919 Speaker 4: He's got a two entreat advantage, and I think he 638 00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:03,240 Speaker 4: has enough defensive wrestling to keep this on the feet. 639 00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:05,800 Speaker 4: Mois is the better grappler, but he doesn't have a 640 00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:08,080 Speaker 4: good wrestling game. He's going to need to find the back, 641 00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:12,880 Speaker 4: find a body, standing body, triangle, do something to get 642 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:15,040 Speaker 4: this fight to the ground. Otherwise Klin is going to 643 00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:17,640 Speaker 4: pick him a part. He's the stronger guy. As I said, 644 00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:20,880 Speaker 4: he's the better striker, and I think he has enough 645 00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:24,000 Speaker 4: first layer takedown defense to keep this fight on the 646 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:27,800 Speaker 4: feet and counter wrestle, sprawl and brawl and win this matchup. 647 00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:29,600 Speaker 4: I think he has solid fight IQ two. We've seen 648 00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,200 Speaker 4: ludle It Klein and other fights mix in takedowns when 649 00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:35,120 Speaker 4: he has the grappling advantage, but when he knows he's 650 00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:38,080 Speaker 4: the better striker, he looks to counter grapple and strike 651 00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:38,520 Speaker 4: so I like. 652 00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:39,080 Speaker 5: His fight IQ. 653 00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:41,040 Speaker 4: This is the guy who is considered a high level 654 00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:43,600 Speaker 4: of prospect when the UFC signed him, had a little 655 00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:45,640 Speaker 4: bit of a rough start, you know, in his run 656 00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:47,360 Speaker 4: of the promotion before he moved up to one to 657 00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:49,760 Speaker 4: fifty five. But now he's four to zero one in 658 00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:52,240 Speaker 4: the division. I think he's found his form in coming 659 00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:55,320 Speaker 4: into his own. And one other thing to note with 660 00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:57,680 Speaker 4: Thiaga Moysis, you know, this is the guy who well trained, 661 00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:00,320 Speaker 4: trained at American top team for a long time. He 662 00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:02,360 Speaker 4: didn't spend this camp at ATT. He went back to 663 00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:04,959 Speaker 4: Brazil for his wife's request. She wanted to be closer 664 00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:08,360 Speaker 4: to home. I don't love him coming away from one 665 00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:09,800 Speaker 4: of the best camps in the sport, some of the 666 00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:11,880 Speaker 4: best coaches in this sport, but also the place he 667 00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:15,520 Speaker 4: spent so much time throughout his career. So probably didn't 668 00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:17,840 Speaker 4: have the best training camp relative to what he's had 669 00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:20,640 Speaker 4: in the past. So I really like Klein in this 670 00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:22,880 Speaker 4: spot at minus one thirty, I think he's much more durable, 671 00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:25,920 Speaker 4: should land much more damage. And I also like his 672 00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:28,440 Speaker 4: itd prop inside it is since at about plus one 673 00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:31,560 Speaker 4: seventy five, that'll be a round robiast okay, and. 674 00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:34,000 Speaker 1: Billy as Sean Tes. You've got another underdog for a 675 00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:34,520 Speaker 1: best bet. 676 00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:36,720 Speaker 6: Yeah, I do, and this is definitely a final bet. 677 00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:38,360 Speaker 6: You kind of could have subbed out any of these 678 00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:42,080 Speaker 6: underdogs's best or under like pretty equal on all of them, 679 00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:44,120 Speaker 6: but this one's a little bit tighter, so I used 680 00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:44,880 Speaker 6: that as the last one. 681 00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:46,560 Speaker 3: I like Zacharese at plus one twenty. 682 00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:49,720 Speaker 6: There's a lot of unknowns in this fight because Zacharias 683 00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:52,760 Speaker 6: looked really good on the Contender series and was probably 684 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:55,480 Speaker 6: winning his fight against Cody Brundage had him locked up 685 00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:57,760 Speaker 6: in a triangle and then got slammed and knocked out. 686 00:29:58,200 --> 00:29:58,760 Speaker 3: I don't want to. 687 00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:00,600 Speaker 6: Say that's a fluke, right. It's hard to pick a 688 00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:01,960 Speaker 6: guy up over your head and slam him on the 689 00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:04,800 Speaker 6: ground under him unconscious, but it's not something that you 690 00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:06,880 Speaker 6: expect to see all the time in a UFC fight. 691 00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:10,320 Speaker 6: It almost looked like he hit the support under the cage, 692 00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:12,320 Speaker 6: like just at the wrong spot to knock himself out. 693 00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:15,240 Speaker 6: Where had it been a couple of inches either direction. 694 00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:19,160 Speaker 6: Very talented submission grappler can strike a little bit. It's 695 00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:23,440 Speaker 6: got some reach here. On Julian Marquez, I don't know 696 00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:25,640 Speaker 6: what's going on with Marquez. I think his last win 697 00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:29,040 Speaker 6: was like, yeah, over three years ago. The guys he 698 00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:31,760 Speaker 6: beat are smiling Sam Alvi who had lost like fourteen 699 00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:34,720 Speaker 6: in a row or whatever somewhere in there, Macki Pittolo 700 00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:37,040 Speaker 6: who had one win in the UFC and got cut. 701 00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:40,080 Speaker 6: Since then, we've never seen Julian Marquez really do it 702 00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:43,040 Speaker 6: against another high level opponent. Also has a lot of 703 00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,520 Speaker 6: wins by submission, I believe, all three in his UFC, 704 00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:48,960 Speaker 6: but doesn't really have the takedowns to make that happen. 705 00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:50,840 Speaker 6: So unless you're going to shoot on him or take 706 00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:52,840 Speaker 6: a bad shot, he doesn't really have a way to 707 00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:55,760 Speaker 6: set that up. I think Reeze can probably stay on 708 00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:57,720 Speaker 6: the outside. We got to remember this is the bigger 709 00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:01,080 Speaker 6: cage because it's on the road at the granddaddy of 710 00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:04,960 Speaker 6: them all, the UFC or the KFC, YOUM Center. Every 711 00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:07,640 Speaker 6: kid grows up dreaming about getting their first fight at 712 00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:11,880 Speaker 6: the UM Center. But basically there's so much unknowns here 713 00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:14,000 Speaker 6: that I would take plus money on either side of 714 00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:16,680 Speaker 6: this fight. Whichever guy you're offering me plus money on, 715 00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:17,400 Speaker 6: I'm going to take it. 716 00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:18,000 Speaker 3: Rees. 717 00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:19,680 Speaker 6: I also think a little bit younger, a little bit 718 00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:23,600 Speaker 6: probably hungrier up and coming reason to believe that he's 719 00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:26,600 Speaker 6: on the come up of his career. Got a UFC check, 720 00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:29,080 Speaker 6: can probably train full time now where as he couldn't before. 721 00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:32,680 Speaker 6: Where Mark has kind of a weird UFC run. You know, 722 00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:34,680 Speaker 6: Sean likes to talk about his fumbling of the bag 723 00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:39,320 Speaker 6: with Miley Cyrus. A lot of interesting tidbits about Julian Marquez, 724 00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:41,760 Speaker 6: but haven't seen him win a fight in over three years. 725 00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:45,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, he dealt with a ton of injuries. Even prior 726 00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:47,320 Speaker 4: to coming back. He was losing that fight to Macki Patolo. 727 00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 4: I had Macki Batolo he was my best bet and 728 00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:52,479 Speaker 4: Julian submitted him in round three after getting dominated and 729 00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:54,880 Speaker 4: losing minutes for the first two rounds. So he hasn't 730 00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:57,960 Speaker 4: even been that effective even since returning. He didn't look 731 00:31:57,960 --> 00:31:59,520 Speaker 4: great in the Sam Albi fight. 732 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:00,400 Speaker 5: Just wanted to a note. 733 00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:02,160 Speaker 4: I thought it was funny that you said, you know, 734 00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:04,720 Speaker 4: how often does the slam happen to the UFC that 735 00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:08,320 Speaker 4: that Zacharyes Betag fight was immediately following the drug Car 736 00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:11,200 Speaker 4: Close Joe Selecki fight, where drunk Car Close also knocked 737 00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:15,400 Speaker 4: Joe Selecki out via Slam, so that that Darius Serukian. 738 00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:15,720 Speaker 5: Card was wild. 739 00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:19,600 Speaker 4: The back to back slam knockouts and then then Serukians 740 00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:21,640 Speaker 4: knock out over Dariush. That was a fun card looking 741 00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:23,480 Speaker 4: back on it, but yeah, I just just wanted to 742 00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:25,280 Speaker 4: point that out. It was it was funny to hear 743 00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:26,959 Speaker 4: you say, how often does that happen? When we had 744 00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:28,800 Speaker 4: them in back to back fights on that card, But 745 00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:31,080 Speaker 4: those are the only two that I remember happening in 746 00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:32,400 Speaker 4: the past, like five or years. 747 00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:34,240 Speaker 6: Or and like, yeah, I'd say four or five years 748 00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:39,120 Speaker 6: I think since we had another one. So my tinfoil 749 00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:42,400 Speaker 6: had conspiracy theory is there was something like harder under 750 00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:45,240 Speaker 6: the canvas in that cage than there typically is, Like 751 00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:47,080 Speaker 6: there's just something going on there, because how often do 752 00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:47,520 Speaker 6: you see that? 753 00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, Austin, Texas, that's where that card took place, So 754 00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:51,560 Speaker 4: keeping keeping, not. 755 00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:54,880 Speaker 3: Just because I looked it up. 756 00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:57,520 Speaker 6: Uh, Julian Mark haz three submission wins in the UFC, 757 00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:00,320 Speaker 6: zero takedowns in the UFC, So you kind of have 758 00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:03,680 Speaker 6: to bad fight IQ your way into a submission against him. 759 00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:06,120 Speaker 6: He's not gonna make it happen. So just if you 760 00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:09,400 Speaker 6: don't do that, you'll probably be okay, which I'm hoping 761 00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:12,080 Speaker 6: is Zach Reese's plan, although I'm nervous because he likes 762 00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:12,880 Speaker 6: to grapple as well. 763 00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:16,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, Marquez hits hard, and Reese to me, has that 764 00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,200 Speaker 4: like tall man defense that concerns me. I just he's 765 00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,800 Speaker 4: never been knocked out other than this lamb, but just 766 00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:23,680 Speaker 4: the way he fights, Like I just look at him, 767 00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:25,800 Speaker 4: I'm like, ah, this guy seems like he's kind of fragile. 768 00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:28,480 Speaker 4: Maybe he isn't, but just looking at him, it doesn't 769 00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:30,680 Speaker 4: doesn't look like he could take a punch. But we'll 770 00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:33,000 Speaker 4: find out, you know, I need more information on him. 771 00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:34,920 Speaker 4: So this fight's probably a pass for me. The model 772 00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:36,600 Speaker 4: wants me to bet Marquez. I think it's because of, 773 00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:38,480 Speaker 4: you know, the past form and the fact that he's 774 00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:39,760 Speaker 4: such a veteran. 775 00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:41,240 Speaker 5: But I'm probably gonna pass on this fight. 776 00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:43,040 Speaker 3: Okay, very good? 777 00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:45,960 Speaker 1: That is going to do it for a UFC betting preview. 778 00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:50,720 Speaker 1: UFC Louisville down in Louisville, Kentucky at the Center goes 779 00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:55,440 Speaker 1: down Saturday starting at five Eastern with the prelimbs main 780 00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:58,000 Speaker 1: card at eight pm. You can catch the main card 781 00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:02,840 Speaker 1: over on ESPN for Sean Zarillo and billy Ward, Brendan Glassheen. 782 00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,560 Speaker 1: Be sure to find these guys in the Action Network 783 00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:08,200 Speaker 1: app should they add anything live a lot a live 784 00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:11,880 Speaker 1: discussion here on the podcast, so be on the lookout. 785 00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:13,560 Speaker 3: In the Action App for that. 786 00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:16,600 Speaker 1: We'll be back at it next week. Thanks for tuning 787 00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:18,640 Speaker 1: in to our UFC betting preview here on the Action 788 00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:22,279 Speaker 1: Network podcast presented by bet MGM go up. 789 00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:23,399 Speaker 3: Great weekend best of Bluk. 790 00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:36,360 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 791 00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:39,200 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 792 00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:42,360 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler