WEBVTT - Surveillance: Trump Deserves Nobel Prize, Bremmer Says 0:00:09.880 --> 0:00:13.800 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:16.960 we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, 0:00:17.040 --> 0:00:23.480 investment and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:27.760 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Never 0:00:27.800 --> 0:00:30.760 a dull moment from yesterday today, with some of these 0:00:30.800 --> 0:00:33.479 surprises in the language of the Bank of England and 0:00:33.520 --> 0:00:37.519 to synthesize it across economics and across the equity markets, 0:00:37.560 --> 0:00:40.919 one m Darta joins us. Michael Darta with MKM Partners, 0:00:40.920 --> 0:00:43.600 thrilled he could be with us this morning. I thought 0:00:43.600 --> 0:00:46.920 the meeting yesterday Michael Darda was absolutely original, I said 0:00:46.920 --> 0:00:49.360 to Michael McKee as I was walking out of the 0:00:49.960 --> 0:00:54.120 starship here yesterday. I wonder what Alan Meltzer would have 0:00:54.160 --> 0:00:59.720 thought of this original policy, How original, how off theory 0:01:00.240 --> 0:01:04.480 was the FED yesterday? Thanks for having me. Tom Well 0:01:04.720 --> 0:01:08.600 Powell described what the Fed did was as very powerful 0:01:08.720 --> 0:01:13.119 for forward guidance, but markets looked at what the Fed 0:01:13.200 --> 0:01:16.840 did did as more or less a nothing burger. Right, 0:01:16.920 --> 0:01:20.880 so inflation expectations didn't really move, and the FED in 0:01:20.959 --> 0:01:25.560 its forecasts actually didn't predict that it would succeed in 0:01:25.680 --> 0:01:29.440 average inflation targeting. Nowhere in that forecast is two p 0:01:29.800 --> 0:01:34.600 plus inflation. Uh. Instead it's two percent inflation, but only 0:01:34.640 --> 0:01:38.440 after four years. And so you know, as you were 0:01:38.480 --> 0:01:42.520 talking and discussing earlier, you know somewhere disappointed in that, 0:01:42.600 --> 0:01:46.560 and and markets didn't really move the immediate response to 0:01:46.560 --> 0:01:48.160 to the Fed is what you want to look at. 0:01:48.200 --> 0:01:51.720 There were some disappointments with the press conference, but um, 0:01:51.760 --> 0:01:54.400 I think you know, the f didn't move the needle 0:01:54.480 --> 0:01:57.000 in the way. Maybe they hoped just to drill in. 0:01:57.040 --> 0:01:58.880 What was the main disappointment that the Fed didn't come 0:01:58.880 --> 0:02:00.440 out and say that they're going to buy an indefinite 0:02:00.440 --> 0:02:03.080 amount of long term debt. Well, I think it's in 0:02:03.120 --> 0:02:07.000 the forecast, right. I mean, average average inflation targeting means 0:02:07.000 --> 0:02:09.079 if you've been below two, then you seek to get 0:02:09.080 --> 0:02:12.200 above two. But nowhere in the FEDS forecast is above 0:02:12.240 --> 0:02:15.880 two percent inflation. Um. And it's a pretty long horizon. 0:02:16.080 --> 0:02:18.440 You know, four years to fully recover is not a 0:02:18.520 --> 0:02:21.560 lost decade, but it's you know, certainly not a speedy 0:02:21.639 --> 0:02:25.520 return to full economic health either. Mike, You've got to say, 0:02:25.520 --> 0:02:27.720 it's absolutely ridiculous to be upset in the last twenty 0:02:27.720 --> 0:02:30.120 four hours. Grant said chaman Pass performance wasn't all that 0:02:30.160 --> 0:02:33.040 in the news conference, November five is the next mating 0:02:33.080 --> 0:02:35.880 for the Federal Reserve. I understand something happens a couple 0:02:35.880 --> 0:02:38.799 of days earlier. Mike. Surely we've got to understand that 0:02:38.840 --> 0:02:41.639 the Federal Reserve could not fire all its bullets had 0:02:41.639 --> 0:02:46.680 of the election in America. Yeah, I mean, you know, 0:02:47.160 --> 0:02:50.320 that's an argument for sure. And I am encouraged at 0:02:50.360 --> 0:02:54.280 least that inflation expectations are holding up, they're not sinking, 0:02:55.200 --> 0:02:58.519 but the bond market doesn't expect the FED to get 0:02:58.560 --> 0:03:02.760 back to two inflay and really over an indefinite horizon. 0:03:03.240 --> 0:03:05.520 And so you do have to ask yourself the question. 0:03:05.560 --> 0:03:07.920 If the Fed is telling us they are not out 0:03:07.919 --> 0:03:12.440 of AMMO, they could do more, but they're not forecasting success, 0:03:12.520 --> 0:03:15.280 then why are they not changing policy. I think it's 0:03:15.280 --> 0:03:18.680 a very legitimate question that needs to be asked. That 0:03:18.760 --> 0:03:20.960 was the question economists we're asking in the news conference 0:03:20.960 --> 0:03:22.640 as well. Mike. Forgive me, because I've got to do 0:03:22.680 --> 0:03:24.120 this right now. I've got to turn to cable and 0:03:24.160 --> 0:03:26.440 get an intraday chart up and look at pounds sterling 0:03:26.680 --> 0:03:28.680 pound sterling is falling off a cliff right now, the 0:03:28.680 --> 0:03:31.520 pound against the US dollar at one to break at 0:03:31.560 --> 0:03:33.960 one and down by a half of one percent. We 0:03:34.040 --> 0:03:37.520 mentioned this very briefly just five minutes ago with Bloomberg's 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:41.240 Guy Johnson. Governor Bailey has been flirting with negative interest rates. 0:03:41.320 --> 0:03:44.040 This is a Bank of England now actively preparing to 0:03:44.360 --> 0:03:47.760 execute negative interest rates. The Bank of England will engage 0:03:47.800 --> 0:03:52.320 with regulators on how to implement negative interest rates. Mike, 0:03:52.400 --> 0:03:56.120 I would love your thoughts on negative rates, not just 0:03:56.160 --> 0:04:00.040 in the UK, but across Europe, Japan, Switzerland. What is 0:04:00.120 --> 0:04:02.160 your response to these kind of headlines on the Morning 0:04:02.240 --> 0:04:05.240 Light this morning? Yeah, well, I mean if the pound 0:04:05.320 --> 0:04:08.560 is moving down on those expectations, then you would have 0:04:08.640 --> 0:04:11.680 to characterize it as an expansionary move, right. I mean, 0:04:11.720 --> 0:04:14.720 I've heard a lot of commentators say that negative rates 0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:20.599 are contractionary, self defeating. But if you signal a policy 0:04:20.720 --> 0:04:25.920 move and the currency depreciates, that's actually expansionary all other 0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:30.400 things equal. The US doesn't look like it's headed net direction. 0:04:30.440 --> 0:04:34.560 Powell has thrown cold water on it, and obviously, um 0:04:34.760 --> 0:04:37.760 the experience in the Eurozone in Japan have been disappointing, 0:04:37.800 --> 0:04:42.360 but don't forget that we've had many policy missteps in 0:04:42.400 --> 0:04:45.400 those regions where central banks tried to get off the 0:04:45.520 --> 0:04:49.479 zero lower bound prematurely and put business cycles at risk 0:04:49.720 --> 0:04:53.360 or fortified deflationary pressures. So you don't end up in 0:04:53.400 --> 0:04:56.479 a zero rate scenario unless things have gone really wrong 0:04:56.520 --> 0:05:00.880 for a long time beforehand. Right, catch up as always, 0:05:00.880 --> 0:05:06.839 Marco down to that. M campound is right now, Michael 0:05:06.880 --> 0:05:09.839 gap in with us with Barkley's or chief US economists. Michael, 0:05:09.880 --> 0:05:12.520 I want to really get away from Fed policy and 0:05:12.560 --> 0:05:16.080 talk about where we are in terms of g d 0:05:16.240 --> 0:05:20.160 P within Q four and then into two thousand twenty one. 0:05:20.320 --> 0:05:23.880 I think we've lost sight of the guessing of what 0:05:24.000 --> 0:05:27.760 real g d P will be. Good morning, Tom, and 0:05:27.760 --> 0:05:30.279 thank you for that. So I think there's been clear 0:05:30.320 --> 0:05:33.880 evidence of deceleration in the data this week, right, so 0:05:33.920 --> 0:05:36.000 we know we all came out of lockdown and things 0:05:36.080 --> 0:05:40.320 bounced quite strongly, and that gave us solemn momentum into July. 0:05:40.560 --> 0:05:44.559 The retail sales data yesterday coming in the cord down 0:05:44.760 --> 0:05:47.560 on the month, I think tell us that there's a 0:05:47.600 --> 0:05:50.720 lot less momentum as we head into into Q four 0:05:51.279 --> 0:05:53.760 and I know we're all used to every fiscal deadline 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:56.760 bringing action, but you know phase four is you know, 0:05:56.839 --> 0:05:59.840 it's on life support for sure. Uh. And if we're 0:05:59.839 --> 0:06:04.000 not getting any additional benefits for households and replacement of 0:06:04.080 --> 0:06:07.200 loss wage and salary income, it does look like the 0:06:07.240 --> 0:06:10.360 pace of improvement is certainly going to going to slow. 0:06:10.600 --> 0:06:13.599 So somewhere in the load of mid single digits for 0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:16.279 growth rates in in Q four seems to be reasonable, 0:06:16.320 --> 0:06:19.560 which would be a you know, pretty significant deceleration off 0:06:19.560 --> 0:06:23.240 the roughly twent that that consensus is looking for in 0:06:23.320 --> 0:06:26.679 Q three. So I think it is related to two things. 0:06:26.720 --> 0:06:29.239 The shift where hey, we've we bought all the goods 0:06:29.240 --> 0:06:32.000 we're going to buy, and so further growth has to 0:06:32.040 --> 0:06:35.480 come from services and we know those are COVID affected areas, 0:06:35.560 --> 0:06:38.520 and fiscal stimulus keeps getting pushed out. So those are 0:06:38.560 --> 0:06:40.240 the two forces I think that I mean, things are 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:42.920 really going to decelerate now, and as we move into 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:45.800 Q four, Michael, it's all about jobs, And as Mike 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:48.880 McKee was saying, there is increasing concern that the job's 0:06:48.960 --> 0:06:52.240 data is really messy. How much integrity does this data have? 0:06:53.680 --> 0:06:57.160 It still has? I would say some useful integrity. Um, 0:06:57.320 --> 0:07:00.760 I agree with the need to downplay the signal from 0:07:00.800 --> 0:07:05.120 the pandemic numbers, and even the initial claims data is 0:07:05.160 --> 0:07:08.440 something that that we're paying less attention to. Continuing claims 0:07:08.440 --> 0:07:12.000 still seem to have a pretty good signal to them. 0:07:12.080 --> 0:07:16.160 So the direction seems to be one of more modest improvement. Look, 0:07:16.200 --> 0:07:18.440 this is just one of those periods where it's it's 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:20.800 a data point that has lost some of its relevance. 0:07:20.840 --> 0:07:24.360 Over time, it will become more relevant again. So we 0:07:24.360 --> 0:07:26.800 we just downweight some of the signal that that's coming 0:07:26.840 --> 0:07:30.360 out of it, but we don't ignore it entirely. Michael, 0:07:30.360 --> 0:07:32.400 you've got your finger on the pulse of the conversation 0:07:32.760 --> 0:07:35.600 that we had through the summer with pretty much everybody. 0:07:35.680 --> 0:07:38.880 So many people expected that late summer slowed down, it 0:07:38.920 --> 0:07:41.720 didn't develop, and they capitulated and embrace the idea that 0:07:41.760 --> 0:07:45.440 what we're seeing is a self sustaining recovery. Are you 0:07:45.560 --> 0:07:47.840 saying we're not on What we really need now is 0:07:47.880 --> 0:07:52.080 more fiscal juice. So I think we've been I've tried 0:07:52.120 --> 0:07:54.600 to be consistent in saying we we do think another 0:07:54.760 --> 0:07:58.200 round of of assistance for households, like a three to 0:07:58.280 --> 0:08:01.760 four months, maybe five month kind of period would would 0:08:01.800 --> 0:08:05.120 be critical in terms of providing a greater bridge and 0:08:05.320 --> 0:08:08.640 underpinning that virtuous cycle. Right, it worked coming out of 0:08:08.680 --> 0:08:13.240 lockdown because households had resources to spend. Personal income in 0:08:13.320 --> 0:08:16.960 July was about seven percent above where it was in 0:08:17.080 --> 0:08:20.880 February wage and salary and was about five percent below 0:08:20.960 --> 0:08:24.200 where we were in February. So it was the federal 0:08:24.240 --> 0:08:27.600 assistance that was key in helping to underpin that initial 0:08:27.960 --> 0:08:32.319 rehiring and therefore improvement in production. And I do think 0:08:32.360 --> 0:08:35.440 a little more to bridge us into your end would 0:08:35.480 --> 0:08:37.880 be useful. It doesn't mean the economy can't continue to 0:08:37.880 --> 0:08:40.440 recover without it, but I think it will be slower 0:08:40.480 --> 0:08:44.200 and I think it will be more uneven. Is that 0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:47.880 what shaman Paus's whitey full? I think so? I mean, 0:08:47.960 --> 0:08:50.199 I think it sounds to me like the message he 0:08:50.280 --> 0:08:53.360 sent yesterday was we we've done what we're going to 0:08:53.440 --> 0:08:58.960 do uh and and we've implemented flexible average inflation targeting 0:08:59.440 --> 0:09:01.840 where since we're going to be at zero for the 0:09:01.880 --> 0:09:04.920 next three to six years, we'll be buying assets for 0:09:04.960 --> 0:09:09.440 the foreseeable future. The outlook from here is heavily dependent 0:09:09.520 --> 0:09:12.680 on fiscal policy, and whether or not we get a vaccine, 0:09:12.920 --> 0:09:15.079 what happens. We'll have to see how those developed. Well. 0:09:15.160 --> 0:09:18.720 Of course, the President tweeting out here vaccines coming very shortly, 0:09:18.880 --> 0:09:22.520 literally matter of weeks. I believe the science community would 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:25.640 beg to disagree with that. Michael gabon what if we 0:09:25.720 --> 0:09:29.160 don't get fiscal policy, what does that do in terms 0:09:29.160 --> 0:09:32.560 of tenths of a percentage point to anybody's GDP guests, 0:09:33.440 --> 0:09:35.520 I mean, it's probably more than than tents of a 0:09:36.000 --> 0:09:39.880 of a percent. I think at least what most forecasters 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:43.440 have been penciling in a trillion or more in fiscal stimulus, 0:09:43.480 --> 0:09:48.600 So those are they would be bringing down growth forecast fairly, 0:09:48.800 --> 0:09:53.120 fairly markedly. The vaccine obviously would push things in in 0:09:53.200 --> 0:09:56.000 the other direction. So we we actually put in just 0:09:56.040 --> 0:09:58.920 a relatively small Phase four package. We put it in 0:09:59.080 --> 0:10:02.679 on our forecast March. It was like billion. You know, 0:10:02.840 --> 0:10:06.600 billions are are not trillions, of course, um, and so 0:10:06.840 --> 0:10:08.880 I would say we have less s adjusting to do 0:10:09.040 --> 0:10:12.120 on that front. But I think you're talking more percentage points, 0:10:12.160 --> 0:10:14.880 not tens of a percent if if we're not getting 0:10:15.240 --> 0:10:19.400 getting Phase four spending or something beyond the election, for sure. Michael, 0:10:19.440 --> 0:10:22.240 how worried are you about scarring on the labor market, 0:10:22.280 --> 0:10:25.400 particularly with younger workers who have some of the highest 0:10:25.440 --> 0:10:28.920 unemployment rates. Ever, I would say there at the at 0:10:28.920 --> 0:10:32.000 the moment, I'd say I'm I have mild worry to 0:10:32.200 --> 0:10:34.679 medium worry. And by that I mean when, yes, the 0:10:34.760 --> 0:10:38.200 unemployment rates come down and the level of unemployment has 0:10:38.240 --> 0:10:42.000 come down, but underneath that, the number of unemployed workers 0:10:42.000 --> 0:10:45.280 that are being classified as permanently out of work, that 0:10:45.400 --> 0:10:47.680 number is rising. It's it's It was a little over 0:10:47.760 --> 0:10:50.920 four million in the last employment reports. So the bad 0:10:50.960 --> 0:10:53.760 news is it's rising. The reason I wouldn't say I'm 0:10:53.800 --> 0:10:56.839 extremely concerned is after O eight oh nine that number 0:10:56.920 --> 0:11:00.319 was over eight million. So there is some evidence that's 0:11:00.320 --> 0:11:03.080 scarring and labor markets is happening, but on a relative 0:11:03.120 --> 0:11:06.199 basis at present, it's only about half as bad as 0:11:06.200 --> 0:11:09.600 we saw after O eight oh nine, and we'll see 0:11:09.600 --> 0:11:12.360 where that number goes. No vaccine likely means that number 0:11:12.400 --> 0:11:15.199 is going to get higher. If we do get a vaccine, 0:11:15.240 --> 0:11:18.000 that's why we available sometime around the middle of next year. 0:11:18.080 --> 0:11:22.080 That should limit the degree of labor market scarring. Michael 0:11:22.160 --> 0:11:24.880 Kaype and always Left catching up with you time this morning, 0:11:24.880 --> 0:11:27.120 and we appreciated Michael. Thank you Michael Cape and that 0:11:27.440 --> 0:11:33.480 of Barcley. You can go back to a girl have 0:11:33.640 --> 0:11:35.800 showed up, I mean literally showed up in New York 0:11:35.800 --> 0:11:38.960 and said hello, I'm here when she was eighteen years old. 0:11:39.440 --> 0:11:43.120 She stopped traffic years ago with a T shirt on 0:11:43.200 --> 0:11:47.680 the Tonight Show and that latch Rebecca Minkoff, after pursues 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:50.240 in the rest, she joins us now on the state 0:11:50.320 --> 0:11:54.000 of her collapsing fashion industry. Rebecca Minkoff, wonderful I have 0:11:54.080 --> 0:11:55.520 you with us. How are you going to make it 0:11:55.559 --> 0:11:58.640 to the other side. You've been resilient more than anybody 0:11:58.679 --> 0:12:01.480 I know. How do you get to two thousand twenty two? 0:12:02.679 --> 0:12:05.439 I think we get that. We get there by being resilient, 0:12:05.520 --> 0:12:08.280 by being innovative, and you know, you really get to 0:12:08.360 --> 0:12:11.440 go back and flex your entrepreneurial skills. This is the 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:14.600 test for any entrepreneur. Can you do it? You cannot 0:12:14.640 --> 0:12:17.240 rest on your laurels right now. And my co founder 0:12:17.280 --> 0:12:19.760 and I have done nothing short of a miracle by 0:12:19.840 --> 0:12:23.760 keeping our company together. I can't imagine when you first 0:12:23.760 --> 0:12:26.960 walked into Robert bergs Bergdorf, Goodman and saw your product 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:29.920 on the second floor or the fifth floor or whatever. 0:12:30.160 --> 0:12:32.959 In two or three years, are people like you gonna 0:12:32.960 --> 0:12:37.320 have product and department stores or are they done? You know, 0:12:37.400 --> 0:12:41.120 we're not done. Obviously, the pandemic has changed everything and 0:12:41.360 --> 0:12:44.400 overnight seventy percent of our business was shut down due 0:12:44.400 --> 0:12:47.880 the due to the pandemic. But we're seeing a resurgency. 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:50.400 Stores are coming back. It's going to be slower, it's 0:12:50.440 --> 0:12:54.160 going to be different. The relationship will certainly change, but um, 0:12:54.240 --> 0:12:57.160 we're getting requests for orders that currently we can't build 0:12:57.720 --> 0:13:00.400 from these stores. Where are these store or is are 0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:04.360 they in big cities or is the location changing? You know, 0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:07.439 we've had requests from our past stores, whether it's the 0:13:07.480 --> 0:13:10.640 Nords from opening back up or you know the slow 0:13:10.760 --> 0:13:14.240 sort of as these cities get allowances. Um, they are 0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:16.480 in the bigger cities, and I don't know that you'll 0:13:16.480 --> 0:13:20.000 see a huge resurgence with department stores and smaller cities. 0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:22.640 But we are seeing that specialty stores that are allowed 0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:25.680 to reopen are also requesting product. And because of that, 0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:29.360 we're actually bring back certain staff that we're wholesale related 0:13:29.400 --> 0:13:32.560 only because we can't uh service these clients as well 0:13:32.600 --> 0:13:34.400 as we need, and so we're bringing back staff we 0:13:34.440 --> 0:13:37.720 had furloughed in order to service those clients. Rebecca, how 0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:40.240 do you compete with sweatpants and an arrow of working 0:13:40.280 --> 0:13:43.480 from home? Here's the beautiful thing. We have a really 0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:46.560 popular Janine sweatshirt that we've had for several months that 0:13:46.600 --> 0:13:49.199 we cannot keep in stock. It has the perfect zoom shoulder, 0:13:49.800 --> 0:13:53.040 and now we're getting in a sweatsuit coming this holiday season. 0:13:53.040 --> 0:13:55.480 You're gonna get her invaluor you get her in a hoodie, 0:13:55.480 --> 0:13:57.800 you get an address. So we are listening to our 0:13:57.880 --> 0:14:00.240 customer and we're giving her fashion, but a big, very 0:14:00.320 --> 0:14:04.400 very comfortable way. Rebecca, I want you to talk about 0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:06.440 how you got a branch out. You've done a great 0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:08.640 job of that. I mean it was one story of person. 0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:11.960 You've gone so far beyond that. I mean, Lisa A. Bramo, 0:14:12.080 --> 0:14:16.120 it's needs little min cough, There's no question about that. 0:14:16.600 --> 0:14:19.080 But you know that the creative survival, where is all 0:14:19.120 --> 0:14:23.360 that product discrimination going? What's your vision of how you're 0:14:23.360 --> 0:14:27.800 gonna parse brands over the next twenty four months. So 0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:30.040 I think that we're are seeing and it needed to happen, 0:14:30.120 --> 0:14:32.320 a complete fashion reset. I think we were all in 0:14:32.360 --> 0:14:35.360 a hamster wheel. We were designing too much, we were 0:14:35.440 --> 0:14:38.520 clogged with inventory. So one of the things we did 0:14:38.600 --> 0:14:41.280 with launching Little min Cough is partnered with a platform 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:45.880 called Residents. It's inventory lists by a degradable and made 0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:48.720 with earth friendly chemicals, and there's almost zero waste because 0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:52.040 they literally print the pattern on fabric and cut around it. 0:14:52.400 --> 0:14:54.800 And we're expanding that to women's because we see that 0:14:54.880 --> 0:14:58.840 a woman is actually becoming more conscious about waste, about 0:14:58.880 --> 0:15:02.320 fast fashion and it's harm to the environment and workers, 0:15:02.760 --> 0:15:06.520 and so we're embracing that and fully utilizing everything we 0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:10.000 can to grow that segment. Um. It's called r M 0:15:10.080 --> 0:15:12.800 Green but with any after our store on Green Street, 0:15:12.920 --> 0:15:15.560 and so that launches in the next few weeks um, 0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:18.360 in addition to the Little Minkoff which is already there. Rebecca, 0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:21.880 as an entrepreneur and as a mentor to a lot 0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:27.120 of entrepreneurs, is Amazon the enemy you know today? Uh, 0:15:27.160 --> 0:15:30.480 you know there is a big divide, many divides actually, 0:15:30.560 --> 0:15:33.480 but I think that right now we're selling on Amazon. 0:15:34.000 --> 0:15:37.640 When our entire business, you know, uh, with the exception 0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:40.560 of our own site, went offline, we needed to be 0:15:40.600 --> 0:15:42.680 able to find partners that were nimble and quick and 0:15:42.680 --> 0:15:45.480 would work with us. And so we've had an incredible partnership. 0:15:45.880 --> 0:15:47.520 And I think as long as you can set those 0:15:47.600 --> 0:15:52.320 rules and they are followed, and they're fantastic place to be. Rebecca, 0:15:52.400 --> 0:15:54.360 I look at the tech structure that you have to 0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:56.960 deal with. You've got politicians looking for the rich people 0:15:57.000 --> 0:16:00.320 buying fancy Rebecca Minkoff stuff to crush you in New 0:16:00.400 --> 0:16:04.000 Jersey and other states. Is well, what kind of support 0:16:04.200 --> 0:16:09.040 do you need from fiscally beleaguered politicians. I think they 0:16:09.040 --> 0:16:11.400 need to turn their fight elsewhere. They should probably worry 0:16:11.440 --> 0:16:15.200 more about equality. They should probably worry more about, you know, 0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:18.920 making sure that people who are not with jobs and 0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:21.720 who need more financial help get that support. You know, 0:16:21.840 --> 0:16:24.760 we elect these politicians and they should be worrying about 0:16:24.760 --> 0:16:27.800 the people that need help the most, versus you know, 0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:31.360 crushing businesses that are trying to survive and really contribute 0:16:31.360 --> 0:16:35.080 to the economy. Very good, Rebecca Mankoff. Too short of visit. 0:16:38.920 --> 0:16:40.760 This is a joy, as we had Joyce chatting with 0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:43.080 us of JP Morgan in the last tour Ian Bremer 0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:45.440 joins us now with Euraise your group and somebody asked 0:16:45.440 --> 0:16:47.920 me yesterday, are you doing that New Year's kick off? 0:16:47.960 --> 0:16:51.160 And I'm thrilled to say we're planning that right now 0:16:51.160 --> 0:16:54.520 with the wonderful people at Eurise. Your group, Ian Bremer, 0:16:54.640 --> 0:16:58.120 a new book scheduled here. Maybe it will adapt an 0:16:58.160 --> 0:17:01.480 adjust to the presidential election. Let's start with Ian Bremer 0:17:01.760 --> 0:17:05.920 on our international relations and our next president and what 0:17:06.000 --> 0:17:11.440 does second term presidents do on international relations? If President 0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:16.200 Trump takes the trophy this time, how do presidents adapt 0:17:16.359 --> 0:17:19.840 in a second term? Well, I mean, I think one 0:17:19.880 --> 0:17:23.240 thing to say is that when you have a change 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:28.240 in president and a changing party, the idea that foreign 0:17:28.320 --> 0:17:32.200 policy is going to be dramatically different is usually oversold 0:17:32.880 --> 0:17:36.640 by the analyst. Is usually more continuity, there's usually more 0:17:36.760 --> 0:17:40.720 constraint um. In the case of Trump, of course, so 0:17:40.800 --> 0:17:44.320 much of what he focuses on his brand building and 0:17:44.400 --> 0:17:49.200 his electioneering that the dangerous period for US foreign policy 0:17:49.400 --> 0:17:52.800 is much more in the run up um to November 0:17:53.240 --> 0:17:57.760 and perhaps right after when votes are still being counted 0:17:57.800 --> 0:18:02.560 and we don't have a solution, than what happens after January. 0:18:03.119 --> 0:18:07.480 For me, the foreign policy differences for Trump if he 0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:12.359 gets the second term um have more to do with 0:18:12.880 --> 0:18:16.760 the constraints on his ability to run if the election 0:18:16.840 --> 0:18:21.480 itself is seen as a legitimate by half of the country. 0:18:21.640 --> 0:18:26.320 And I think, frankly, we're in that situation no matter 0:18:26.880 --> 0:18:31.080 who wins, coming up in November. So there's a lot 0:18:31.119 --> 0:18:34.320 that's unprecedented here. But it doesn't have as much to 0:18:34.400 --> 0:18:37.480 do with second term or not. It has more to 0:18:37.560 --> 0:18:40.280 do with the nature of this election, the nature of 0:18:40.400 --> 0:18:44.160 this backdrop, um and and the nature of President Trump himself. 0:18:44.200 --> 0:18:47.560 There's a derby for the Nobel Peace Prize Senator around 0:18:48.240 --> 0:18:51.920 our foreign policy with the Persian golf, the Arabian Sea, 0:18:52.040 --> 0:18:54.159 or whatever you want to call it. And depending on 0:18:54.200 --> 0:18:57.840 which side of the shore you're, Mr net you know 0:18:57.920 --> 0:19:01.280 who's involved in that as well as our president deserve 0:19:01.520 --> 0:19:04.320 the Nobel Peace Price. I mean, if you want me 0:19:04.320 --> 0:19:08.600 to say something UH really controversial, I can say he 0:19:08.680 --> 0:19:12.720 deserves one more than Obama did. At the time that 0:19:12.800 --> 0:19:16.200 Obama received it, of course, that was a symbolic UH 0:19:16.640 --> 0:19:19.480 prize at that point. It was a hopeful prize. It 0:19:19.560 --> 0:19:22.240 was aspirational, and it was overtly political, which is why 0:19:22.320 --> 0:19:24.439 everyone thought it was kind of a mistake, sort of 0:19:24.480 --> 0:19:28.600 including Obama himself at the time. Of course, Trump's had 0:19:28.600 --> 0:19:32.679 a lot of foreign policy missteps on his on his watch, 0:19:32.960 --> 0:19:35.200 but he's also had some successes. And I'll tell you 0:19:35.560 --> 0:19:38.960 nothing will drive out the trolls more than when I 0:19:39.040 --> 0:19:42.879 give the president credit um for things he's done on 0:19:42.960 --> 0:19:45.040 foreign policy when he's gotten in right. One of those 0:19:45.080 --> 0:19:51.119 things has been uh normalization of relations between Israel and 0:19:51.240 --> 0:19:56.119 the UAE, Israel, UM and Bahrain. Uh. You know, with 0:19:56.720 --> 0:20:00.920 every president for decades now had has tried to cut 0:20:00.920 --> 0:20:03.560 their teeth in the Middle East on being an honest 0:20:03.600 --> 0:20:07.919 broker between Israel and the Palestinians. We're not an honest broker. 0:20:08.000 --> 0:20:10.800 Israel is our best ally in the region, and the 0:20:10.840 --> 0:20:14.719 Palestinians we have at best poor relations. Um that that 0:20:14.760 --> 0:20:18.560 band aid has been ripped off. Our best relations are 0:20:18.600 --> 0:20:23.679 with the Israelis and the Gulf monarchies. And Trump embraced 0:20:23.680 --> 0:20:25.879 that from day one. He knew that the first trip 0:20:25.920 --> 0:20:28.240 he made outside the U S as president, first to 0:20:28.359 --> 0:20:32.359 Riad and then to Israel went very well. And and meanwhile, 0:20:32.840 --> 0:20:36.560 our biggest adversary in the region is Iran, and we 0:20:36.640 --> 0:20:39.400 share that adversary with the Israelis and the Gulf State. 0:20:39.440 --> 0:20:41.959 So the fact that you've had an administration that's not 0:20:42.040 --> 0:20:45.959 been in a sense constrained by or burdened by American 0:20:46.040 --> 0:20:49.560 history in the region made it much more possible to 0:20:49.720 --> 0:20:52.320 effect this breakthrough. And it's a real breakthrough. And by 0:20:52.320 --> 0:20:55.840 the way, if Biden wins, it's actually gonna be there's 0:20:55.880 --> 0:21:00.800 a shot that he could actually move on Israeli Palestinian 0:21:01.200 --> 0:21:04.920 peace because of what Trump has done here is now 0:21:05.000 --> 0:21:09.200 obvious to the Palestinians that they actually don't have friends 0:21:09.240 --> 0:21:11.560 in the region, so they're under a lot more pressure 0:21:11.600 --> 0:21:14.600 to get something done than they were before. What are 0:21:14.640 --> 0:21:18.600 the chances he in that that Joe Biden wind Um 0:21:18.640 --> 0:21:22.480 I would say today, I think they're about six thirty five, 0:21:22.920 --> 0:21:25.760 but it's tightening over the next seven weeks. I suspect 0:21:25.800 --> 0:21:29.040 that we'll get closer than that. I've got high confidence 0:21:29.600 --> 0:21:33.400 that the U. S economy continues to improve, about moderate 0:21:33.440 --> 0:21:37.800 confidence that numbers around coronavirus cases and hospitalizations and debts 0:21:37.800 --> 0:21:41.760 will continue to flatten somewhat. And I've got moderate confidence 0:21:41.840 --> 0:21:47.399 that social instability and violence um in overwhelmingly blue urban 0:21:47.520 --> 0:21:50.760 centers in the US will continue to increase. All three 0:21:50.800 --> 0:21:54.680 of those at the margins helps Trump in a race 0:21:54.720 --> 0:21:57.399 where the overwhelming majority of Americans have already decided how 0:21:57.440 --> 0:22:01.159 they're going to vote, So it's gonna be close. But 0:22:01.280 --> 0:22:04.480 I think more importantly, I think it is almost certain 0:22:04.520 --> 0:22:06.320 that it's going to be contested. We're not going to 0:22:06.400 --> 0:22:08.920 find out who has won the election on the day, 0:22:09.440 --> 0:22:12.720 and President Trump will probably have announced that he's one, 0:22:12.760 --> 0:22:15.040 and how we deal with that it's gonna be a 0:22:15.040 --> 0:22:17.879 lot more challenging than Bush Gore had two thousand. Let's poway. 0:22:19.160 --> 0:22:22.040 You know, is there something that Joe Biden can do 0:22:22.600 --> 0:22:24.280 to get ahead in the polls, or is there something 0:22:24.320 --> 0:22:27.000 that you know President Trump can do, or no matter what, 0:22:27.400 --> 0:22:30.080 is it going to be close? Well, this election is 0:22:30.119 --> 0:22:34.879 going to be overwhelmingly a referendum on Trump. Biden is 0:22:34.920 --> 0:22:38.720 not offensive to most Americans, but they don't have the 0:22:38.760 --> 0:22:41.240 same level of enthusiasm. You're not going to get vote 0:22:41.240 --> 0:22:44.639 parades out there for Biden the way you do for Trump. 0:22:44.800 --> 0:22:48.840 Having said that Trump's support base is narrower than Biden's, 0:22:48.880 --> 0:22:51.439 what do you do in that environment? I mean, you know, 0:22:51.480 --> 0:22:55.120 it's almost impossible for Biden to make it about him 0:22:55.200 --> 0:22:58.159 unless he makes really significant gaps. I think his choice 0:22:58.160 --> 0:23:01.880 of running mate Kamala Harris was a very smart one. Um. 0:23:01.880 --> 0:23:05.840