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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily

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Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance,

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Speaker 1: investment and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Never

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Speaker 1: a dull moment from yesterday today, with some of these

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Speaker 1: surprises in the language of the Bank of England and

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Speaker 1: to synthesize it across economics and across the equity markets,

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Speaker 1: one m Darta joins us. Michael Darta with MKM Partners,

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Speaker 1: thrilled he could be with us this morning. I thought

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Speaker 1: the meeting yesterday Michael Darda was absolutely original, I said

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Speaker 1: to Michael McKee as I was walking out of the

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Speaker 1: starship here yesterday. I wonder what Alan Meltzer would have

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Speaker 1: thought of this original policy, How original, how off theory

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Speaker 1: was the FED yesterday? Thanks for having me. Tom Well

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Speaker 1: Powell described what the Fed did was as very powerful

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Speaker 1: for forward guidance, but markets looked at what the Fed

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Speaker 1: did did as more or less a nothing burger. Right,

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Speaker 1: so inflation expectations didn't really move, and the FED in

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Speaker 1: its forecasts actually didn't predict that it would succeed in

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Speaker 1: average inflation targeting. Nowhere in that forecast is two p

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Speaker 1: plus inflation. Uh. Instead it's two percent inflation, but only

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Speaker 1: after four years. And so you know, as you were

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Speaker 1: talking and discussing earlier, you know somewhere disappointed in that,

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Speaker 1: and and markets didn't really move the immediate response to

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Speaker 1: to the Fed is what you want to look at.

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Speaker 1: There were some disappointments with the press conference, but um,

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Speaker 1: I think you know, the f didn't move the needle

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Speaker 1: in the way. Maybe they hoped just to drill in.

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Speaker 1: What was the main disappointment that the Fed didn't come

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Speaker 1: out and say that they're going to buy an indefinite

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Speaker 1: amount of long term debt. Well, I think it's in

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Speaker 1: the forecast, right. I mean, average average inflation targeting means

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Speaker 1: if you've been below two, then you seek to get

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Speaker 1: above two. But nowhere in the FEDS forecast is above

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Speaker 1: two percent inflation. Um. And it's a pretty long horizon.

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Speaker 1: You know, four years to fully recover is not a

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Speaker 1: lost decade, but it's you know, certainly not a speedy

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Speaker 1: return to full economic health either. Mike, You've got to say,

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Speaker 1: it's absolutely ridiculous to be upset in the last twenty

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Speaker 1: four hours. Grant said chaman Pass performance wasn't all that

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Speaker 1: in the news conference, November five is the next mating

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Speaker 1: for the Federal Reserve. I understand something happens a couple

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Speaker 1: of days earlier. Mike. Surely we've got to understand that

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Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve could not fire all its bullets had

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Speaker 1: of the election in America. Yeah, I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: that's an argument for sure. And I am encouraged at

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Speaker 1: least that inflation expectations are holding up, they're not sinking,

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Speaker 1: but the bond market doesn't expect the FED to get

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Speaker 1: back to two inflay and really over an indefinite horizon.

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Speaker 1: And so you do have to ask yourself the question.

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Speaker 1: If the Fed is telling us they are not out

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Speaker 1: of AMMO, they could do more, but they're not forecasting success,

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Speaker 1: then why are they not changing policy. I think it's

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Speaker 1: a very legitimate question that needs to be asked. That

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Speaker 1: was the question economists we're asking in the news conference

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Speaker 1: as well. Mike. Forgive me, because I've got to do

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Speaker 1: this right now. I've got to turn to cable and

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Speaker 1: get an intraday chart up and look at pounds sterling

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Speaker 1: pound sterling is falling off a cliff right now, the

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Speaker 1: pound against the US dollar at one to break at

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Speaker 1: one and down by a half of one percent. We

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Speaker 1: mentioned this very briefly just five minutes ago with Bloomberg's

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Speaker 1: Guy Johnson. Governor Bailey has been flirting with negative interest rates.

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Speaker 1: This is a Bank of England now actively preparing to

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Speaker 1: execute negative interest rates. The Bank of England will engage

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Speaker 1: with regulators on how to implement negative interest rates. Mike,

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Speaker 1: I would love your thoughts on negative rates, not just

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Speaker 1: in the UK, but across Europe, Japan, Switzerland. What is

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Speaker 1: your response to these kind of headlines on the Morning

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Speaker 1: Light this morning? Yeah, well, I mean if the pound

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Speaker 1: is moving down on those expectations, then you would have

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Speaker 1: to characterize it as an expansionary move, right. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I've heard a lot of commentators say that negative rates

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Speaker 1: are contractionary, self defeating. But if you signal a policy

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Speaker 1: move and the currency depreciates, that's actually expansionary all other

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Speaker 1: things equal. The US doesn't look like it's headed net direction.

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Speaker 1: Powell has thrown cold water on it, and obviously, um

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Speaker 1: the experience in the Eurozone in Japan have been disappointing,

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Speaker 1: but don't forget that we've had many policy missteps in

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Speaker 1: those regions where central banks tried to get off the

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Speaker 1: zero lower bound prematurely and put business cycles at risk

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Speaker 1: or fortified deflationary pressures. So you don't end up in

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Speaker 1: a zero rate scenario unless things have gone really wrong

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Speaker 1: for a long time beforehand. Right, catch up as always,

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Speaker 1: Marco down to that. M campound is right now, Michael

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Speaker 1: gap in with us with Barkley's or chief US economists. Michael,

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Speaker 1: I want to really get away from Fed policy and

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Speaker 1: talk about where we are in terms of g d

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Speaker 1: P within Q four and then into two thousand twenty one.

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Speaker 1: I think we've lost sight of the guessing of what

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Speaker 1: real g d P will be. Good morning, Tom, and

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Speaker 1: thank you for that. So I think there's been clear

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Speaker 1: evidence of deceleration in the data this week, right, so

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Speaker 1: we know we all came out of lockdown and things

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Speaker 1: bounced quite strongly, and that gave us solemn momentum into July.

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Speaker 1: The retail sales data yesterday coming in the cord down

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Speaker 1: on the month, I think tell us that there's a

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Speaker 1: lot less momentum as we head into into Q four

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Speaker 1: and I know we're all used to every fiscal deadline

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Speaker 1: bringing action, but you know phase four is you know,

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Speaker 1: it's on life support for sure. Uh. And if we're

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Speaker 1: not getting any additional benefits for households and replacement of

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Speaker 1: loss wage and salary income, it does look like the

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Speaker 1: pace of improvement is certainly going to going to slow.

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Speaker 1: So somewhere in the load of mid single digits for

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Speaker 1: growth rates in in Q four seems to be reasonable,

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Speaker 1: which would be a you know, pretty significant deceleration off

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Speaker 1: the roughly twent that that consensus is looking for in

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Speaker 1: Q three. So I think it is related to two things.

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Speaker 1: The shift where hey, we've we bought all the goods

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Speaker 1: we're going to buy, and so further growth has to

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Speaker 1: come from services and we know those are COVID affected areas,

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Speaker 1: and fiscal stimulus keeps getting pushed out. So those are

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Speaker 1: the two forces I think that I mean, things are

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Speaker 1: really going to decelerate now, and as we move into

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Speaker 1: Q four, Michael, it's all about jobs, And as Mike

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Speaker 1: McKee was saying, there is increasing concern that the job's

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Speaker 1: data is really messy. How much integrity does this data have?

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Speaker 1: It still has? I would say some useful integrity. Um,

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Speaker 1: I agree with the need to downplay the signal from

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Speaker 1: the pandemic numbers, and even the initial claims data is

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Speaker 1: something that that we're paying less attention to. Continuing claims

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Speaker 1: still seem to have a pretty good signal to them.

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Speaker 1: So the direction seems to be one of more modest improvement. Look,

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Speaker 1: this is just one of those periods where it's it's

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Speaker 1: a data point that has lost some of its relevance.

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Speaker 1: Over time, it will become more relevant again. So we

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Speaker 1: we just downweight some of the signal that that's coming

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Speaker 1: out of it, but we don't ignore it entirely. Michael,

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Speaker 1: you've got your finger on the pulse of the conversation

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Speaker 1: that we had through the summer with pretty much everybody.

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Speaker 1: So many people expected that late summer slowed down, it

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Speaker 1: didn't develop, and they capitulated and embrace the idea that

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Speaker 1: what we're seeing is a self sustaining recovery. Are you

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Speaker 1: saying we're not on What we really need now is

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Speaker 1: more fiscal juice. So I think we've been I've tried

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Speaker 1: to be consistent in saying we we do think another

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Speaker 1: round of of assistance for households, like a three to

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Speaker 1: four months, maybe five month kind of period would would

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Speaker 1: be critical in terms of providing a greater bridge and

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Speaker 1: underpinning that virtuous cycle. Right, it worked coming out of

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Speaker 1: lockdown because households had resources to spend. Personal income in

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Speaker 1: July was about seven percent above where it was in

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Speaker 1: February wage and salary and was about five percent below

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Speaker 1: where we were in February. So it was the federal

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Speaker 1: assistance that was key in helping to underpin that initial

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Speaker 1: rehiring and therefore improvement in production. And I do think

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Speaker 1: a little more to bridge us into your end would

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Speaker 1: be useful. It doesn't mean the economy can't continue to

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Speaker 1: recover without it, but I think it will be slower

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Speaker 1: and I think it will be more uneven. Is that

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Speaker 1: what shaman Paus's whitey full? I think so? I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think it sounds to me like the message he

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Speaker 1: sent yesterday was we we've done what we're going to

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Speaker 1: do uh and and we've implemented flexible average inflation targeting

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Speaker 1: where since we're going to be at zero for the

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Speaker 1: next three to six years, we'll be buying assets for

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Speaker 1: the foreseeable future. The outlook from here is heavily dependent

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Speaker 1: on fiscal policy, and whether or not we get a vaccine,

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Speaker 1: what happens. We'll have to see how those developed. Well.

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Speaker 1: Of course, the President tweeting out here vaccines coming very shortly,

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Speaker 1: literally matter of weeks. I believe the science community would

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Speaker 1: beg to disagree with that. Michael gabon what if we

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Speaker 1: don't get fiscal policy, what does that do in terms

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Speaker 1: of tenths of a percentage point to anybody's GDP guests,

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's probably more than than tents of a

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Speaker 1: of a percent. I think at least what most forecasters

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Speaker 1: have been penciling in a trillion or more in fiscal stimulus,

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Speaker 1: So those are they would be bringing down growth forecast fairly,

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Speaker 1: fairly markedly. The vaccine obviously would push things in in

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Speaker 1: the other direction. So we we actually put in just

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Speaker 1: a relatively small Phase four package. We put it in

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Speaker 1: on our forecast March. It was like billion. You know,

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Speaker 1: billions are are not trillions, of course, um, and so

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Speaker 1: I would say we have less s adjusting to do

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Speaker 1: on that front. But I think you're talking more percentage points,

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Speaker 1: not tens of a percent if if we're not getting

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Speaker 1: getting Phase four spending or something beyond the election, for sure. Michael,

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Speaker 1: how worried are you about scarring on the labor market,

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Speaker 1: particularly with younger workers who have some of the highest

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Speaker 1: unemployment rates. Ever, I would say there at the at

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Speaker 1: the moment, I'd say I'm I have mild worry to

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Speaker 1: medium worry. And by that I mean when, yes, the

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Speaker 1: unemployment rates come down and the level of unemployment has

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Speaker 1: come down, but underneath that, the number of unemployed workers

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Speaker 1: that are being classified as permanently out of work, that

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Speaker 1: number is rising. It's it's It was a little over

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Speaker 1: four million in the last employment reports. So the bad

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Speaker 1: news is it's rising. The reason I wouldn't say I'm

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Speaker 1: extremely concerned is after O eight oh nine that number

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Speaker 1: was over eight million. So there is some evidence that's

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Speaker 1: scarring and labor markets is happening, but on a relative

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Speaker 1: basis at present, it's only about half as bad as

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Speaker 1: we saw after O eight oh nine, and we'll see

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Speaker 1: where that number goes. No vaccine likely means that number

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Speaker 1: is going to get higher. If we do get a vaccine,

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Speaker 1: that's why we available sometime around the middle of next year.

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Speaker 1: That should limit the degree of labor market scarring. Michael

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Speaker 1: Kaype and always Left catching up with you time this morning,

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Speaker 1: and we appreciated Michael. Thank you Michael Cape and that

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Speaker 1: of Barcley. You can go back to a girl have

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Speaker 1: showed up, I mean literally showed up in New York

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Speaker 1: and said hello, I'm here when she was eighteen years old.

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Speaker 1: She stopped traffic years ago with a T shirt on

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Speaker 1: the Tonight Show and that latch Rebecca Minkoff, after pursues

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Speaker 1: in the rest, she joins us now on the state

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Speaker 1: of her collapsing fashion industry. Rebecca Minkoff, wonderful I have

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Speaker 1: you with us. How are you going to make it

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Speaker 1: to the other side. You've been resilient more than anybody

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Speaker 1: I know. How do you get to two thousand twenty two?

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Speaker 1: I think we get that. We get there by being resilient,

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Speaker 1: by being innovative, and you know, you really get to

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Speaker 1: go back and flex your entrepreneurial skills. This is the

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Speaker 1: test for any entrepreneur. Can you do it? You cannot

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Speaker 1: rest on your laurels right now. And my co founder

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Speaker 1: and I have done nothing short of a miracle by

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Speaker 1: keeping our company together. I can't imagine when you first

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Speaker 1: walked into Robert bergs Bergdorf, Goodman and saw your product

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Speaker 1: on the second floor or the fifth floor or whatever.

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Speaker 1: In two or three years, are people like you gonna

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Speaker 1: have product and department stores or are they done? You know,

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Speaker 1: we're not done. Obviously, the pandemic has changed everything and

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Speaker 1: overnight seventy percent of our business was shut down due

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Speaker 1: the due to the pandemic. But we're seeing a resurgency.

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Speaker 1: Stores are coming back. It's going to be slower, it's

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Speaker 1: going to be different. The relationship will certainly change, but um,

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Speaker 1: we're getting requests for orders that currently we can't build

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Speaker 1: from these stores. Where are these store or is are

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Speaker 1: they in big cities or is the location changing? You know,

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Speaker 1: we've had requests from our past stores, whether it's the

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Speaker 1: Nords from opening back up or you know the slow

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Speaker 1: sort of as these cities get allowances. Um, they are

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Speaker 1: in the bigger cities, and I don't know that you'll

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Speaker 1: see a huge resurgence with department stores and smaller cities.

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Speaker 1: But we are seeing that specialty stores that are allowed

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Speaker 1: to reopen are also requesting product. And because of that,

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Speaker 1: we're actually bring back certain staff that we're wholesale related

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Speaker 1: only because we can't uh service these clients as well

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Speaker 1: as we need, and so we're bringing back staff we

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Speaker 1: had furloughed in order to service those clients. Rebecca, how

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Speaker 1: do you compete with sweatpants and an arrow of working

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Speaker 1: from home? Here's the beautiful thing. We have a really

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Speaker 1: popular Janine sweatshirt that we've had for several months that

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Speaker 1: we cannot keep in stock. It has the perfect zoom shoulder,

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Speaker 1: and now we're getting in a sweatsuit coming this holiday season.

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Speaker 1: You're gonna get her invaluor you get her in a hoodie,

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Speaker 1: you get an address. So we are listening to our

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Speaker 1: customer and we're giving her fashion, but a big, very

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Speaker 1: very comfortable way. Rebecca, I want you to talk about

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Speaker 1: how you got a branch out. You've done a great

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Speaker 1: job of that. I mean it was one story of person.

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Speaker 1: You've gone so far beyond that. I mean, Lisa A. Bramo,

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Speaker 1: it's needs little min cough, There's no question about that.

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Speaker 1: But you know that the creative survival, where is all

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Speaker 1: that product discrimination going? What's your vision of how you're

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Speaker 1: gonna parse brands over the next twenty four months. So

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Speaker 1: I think that we're are seeing and it needed to happen,

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Speaker 1: a complete fashion reset. I think we were all in

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Speaker 1: a hamster wheel. We were designing too much, we were

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Speaker 1: clogged with inventory. So one of the things we did

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Speaker 1: with launching Little min Cough is partnered with a platform

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Speaker 1: called Residents. It's inventory lists by a degradable and made

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Speaker 1: with earth friendly chemicals, and there's almost zero waste because

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Speaker 1: they literally print the pattern on fabric and cut around it.

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Speaker 1: And we're expanding that to women's because we see that

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Speaker 1: a woman is actually becoming more conscious about waste, about

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Speaker 1: fast fashion and it's harm to the environment and workers,

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Speaker 1: and so we're embracing that and fully utilizing everything we

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Speaker 1: can to grow that segment. Um. It's called r M

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Speaker 1: Green but with any after our store on Green Street,

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Speaker 1: and so that launches in the next few weeks um,

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Speaker 1: in addition to the Little Minkoff which is already there. Rebecca,

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Speaker 1: as an entrepreneur and as a mentor to a lot

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Speaker 1: of entrepreneurs, is Amazon the enemy you know today? Uh,

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Speaker 1: you know there is a big divide, many divides actually,

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Speaker 1: but I think that right now we're selling on Amazon.

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Speaker 1: When our entire business, you know, uh, with the exception

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Speaker 1: of our own site, went offline, we needed to be

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Speaker 1: able to find partners that were nimble and quick and

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Speaker 1: would work with us. And so we've had an incredible partnership.

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Speaker 1: And I think as long as you can set those

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Speaker 1: rules and they are followed, and they're fantastic place to be. Rebecca,

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Speaker 1: I look at the tech structure that you have to

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Speaker 1: deal with. You've got politicians looking for the rich people

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Speaker 1: buying fancy Rebecca Minkoff stuff to crush you in New

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Speaker 1: Jersey and other states. Is well, what kind of support

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Speaker 1: do you need from fiscally beleaguered politicians. I think they

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Speaker 1: need to turn their fight elsewhere. They should probably worry

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Speaker 1: more about equality. They should probably worry more about, you know,

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Speaker 1: making sure that people who are not with jobs and

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Speaker 1: who need more financial help get that support. You know,

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Speaker 1: we elect these politicians and they should be worrying about

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Speaker 1: the people that need help the most, versus you know,

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Speaker 1: crushing businesses that are trying to survive and really contribute

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Speaker 1: to the economy. Very good, Rebecca Mankoff. Too short of visit.

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Speaker 1: This is a joy, as we had Joyce chatting with

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Speaker 1: us of JP Morgan in the last tour Ian Bremer

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Speaker 1: joins us now with Euraise your group and somebody asked

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Speaker 1: me yesterday, are you doing that New Year's kick off?

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Speaker 1: And I'm thrilled to say we're planning that right now

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Speaker 1: with the wonderful people at Eurise. Your group, Ian Bremer,

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Speaker 1: a new book scheduled here. Maybe it will adapt an

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Speaker 1: adjust to the presidential election. Let's start with Ian Bremer

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Speaker 1: on our international relations and our next president and what

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Speaker 1: does second term presidents do on international relations? If President

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Speaker 1: Trump takes the trophy this time, how do presidents adapt

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Speaker 1: in a second term? Well, I mean, I think one

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Speaker 1: thing to say is that when you have a change

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Speaker 1: in president and a changing party, the idea that foreign

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Speaker 1: policy is going to be dramatically different is usually oversold

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Speaker 1: by the analyst. Is usually more continuity, there's usually more

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Speaker 1: constraint um. In the case of Trump, of course, so

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Speaker 1: much of what he focuses on his brand building and

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Speaker 1: his electioneering that the dangerous period for US foreign policy

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Speaker 1: is much more in the run up um to November

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Speaker 1: and perhaps right after when votes are still being counted

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Speaker 1: and we don't have a solution, than what happens after January.

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Speaker 1: For me, the foreign policy differences for Trump if he

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Speaker 1: gets the second term um have more to do with

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Speaker 1: the constraints on his ability to run if the election

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Speaker 1: itself is seen as a legitimate by half of the country.

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Speaker 1: And I think, frankly, we're in that situation no matter

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Speaker 1: who wins, coming up in November. So there's a lot

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Speaker 1: that's unprecedented here. But it doesn't have as much to

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Speaker 1: do with second term or not. It has more to

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Speaker 1: do with the nature of this election, the nature of

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Speaker 1: this backdrop, um and and the nature of President Trump himself.

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Speaker 1: There's a derby for the Nobel Peace Prize Senator around

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Speaker 1: our foreign policy with the Persian golf, the Arabian Sea,

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Speaker 1: or whatever you want to call it. And depending on

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Speaker 1: which side of the shore you're, Mr net you know

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Speaker 1: who's involved in that as well as our president deserve

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Speaker 1: the Nobel Peace Price. I mean, if you want me

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Speaker 1: to say something UH really controversial, I can say he

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Speaker 1: deserves one more than Obama did. At the time that

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Speaker 1: Obama received it, of course, that was a symbolic UH

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Speaker 1: prize at that point. It was a hopeful prize. It

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Speaker 1: was aspirational, and it was overtly political, which is why

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Speaker 1: everyone thought it was kind of a mistake, sort of

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Speaker 1: including Obama himself at the time. Of course, Trump's had

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Speaker 1: a lot of foreign policy missteps on his on his watch,

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Speaker 1: but he's also had some successes. And I'll tell you

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Speaker 1: nothing will drive out the trolls more than when I

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Speaker 1: give the president credit um for things he's done on

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Speaker 1: foreign policy when he's gotten in right. One of those

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Speaker 1: things has been uh normalization of relations between Israel and

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Speaker 1: the UAE, Israel, UM and Bahrain. Uh. You know, with

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Speaker 1: every president for decades now had has tried to cut

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Speaker 1: their teeth in the Middle East on being an honest

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Speaker 1: broker between Israel and the Palestinians. We're not an honest broker.

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Speaker 1: Israel is our best ally in the region, and the

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Speaker 1: Palestinians we have at best poor relations. Um that that

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Speaker 1: band aid has been ripped off. Our best relations are

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Speaker 1: with the Israelis and the Gulf monarchies. And Trump embraced

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Speaker 1: that from day one. He knew that the first trip

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Speaker 1: he made outside the U S as president, first to

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Speaker 1: Riad and then to Israel went very well. And and meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: our biggest adversary in the region is Iran, and we

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Speaker 1: share that adversary with the Israelis and the Gulf State.

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Speaker 1: So the fact that you've had an administration that's not

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Speaker 1: been in a sense constrained by or burdened by American

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Speaker 1: history in the region made it much more possible to

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Speaker 1: effect this breakthrough. And it's a real breakthrough. And by

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Speaker 1: the way, if Biden wins, it's actually gonna be there's

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Speaker 1: a shot that he could actually move on Israeli Palestinian

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Speaker 1: peace because of what Trump has done here is now

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Speaker 1: obvious to the Palestinians that they actually don't have friends

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Speaker 1: in the region, so they're under a lot more pressure

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Speaker 1: to get something done than they were before. What are

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Speaker 1: the chances he in that that Joe Biden wind Um

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Speaker 1: I would say today, I think they're about six thirty five,

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Speaker 1: but it's tightening over the next seven weeks. I suspect

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Speaker 1: that we'll get closer than that. I've got high confidence

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Speaker 1: that the U. S economy continues to improve, about moderate

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Speaker 1: confidence that numbers around coronavirus cases and hospitalizations and debts

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Speaker 1: will continue to flatten somewhat. And I've got moderate confidence

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Speaker 1: that social instability and violence um in overwhelmingly blue urban

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Speaker 1: centers in the US will continue to increase. All three

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Speaker 1: of those at the margins helps Trump in a race

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Speaker 1: where the overwhelming majority of Americans have already decided how

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Speaker 1: they're going to vote, So it's gonna be close. But

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Speaker 1: I think more importantly, I think it is almost certain

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Speaker 1: that it's going to be contested. We're not going to

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Speaker 1: find out who has won the election on the day,

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Speaker 1: and President Trump will probably have announced that he's one,

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Speaker 1: and how we deal with that it's gonna be a

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Speaker 1: lot more challenging than Bush Gore had two thousand. Let's poway.

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Speaker 1: You know, is there something that Joe Biden can do

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Speaker 1: to get ahead in the polls, or is there something

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Speaker 1: that you know President Trump can do, or no matter what,

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Speaker 1: is it going to be close? Well, this election is

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Speaker 1: going to be overwhelmingly a referendum on Trump. Biden is

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Speaker 1: not offensive to most Americans, but they don't have the

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Speaker 1: same level of enthusiasm. You're not going to get vote

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Speaker 1: parades out there for Biden the way you do for Trump.

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Speaker 1: Having said that Trump's support base is narrower than Biden's,

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Speaker 1: what do you do in that environment? I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's almost impossible for Biden to make it about him

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Speaker 1: unless he makes really significant gaps. I think his choice

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Speaker 1: of running mate Kamala Harris was a very smart one. Um.

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Speaker 1: It won some votes indeed, Americans for example, UM. And

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Speaker 1: it also helped them with some independence in a way

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Speaker 1: that others that were being considered would not have. So

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Speaker 1: that was a win. I worry about the debate. UM,

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Speaker 1: you know you. I think Biden has to get Um.

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Speaker 1: He can't. He can't try to hit Trump. One for one,

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Speaker 1: he has to play the character card. He has to

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Speaker 1: talk directly to the American people. He has to sort

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Speaker 1: of with Trump say oh there you go again. Donald.

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Speaker 1: There has to be the subtext of this is insane

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Speaker 1: and I'm the real presidential character. But he also has

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Speaker 1: to come across as strong and as capable, because you know,

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Speaker 1: we all know that if Biden looks like he's missing

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Speaker 1: a step or two, that's a vulnerability for him. And

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Speaker 1: the Republicans are doing a better job going after and

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Speaker 1: playing dirty than Project Lincoln and the Democrats are against Trump.

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Speaker 1: That's just a reality. And we've got so much more

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Speaker 1: to talk about. I want to ask you one question.

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Speaker 1: I want you to play domestic political guy. Here. I

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Speaker 1: was standing four years ago watching a TV attend something

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Speaker 1: PM when I realized President Trump was gonna win, and

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Speaker 1: he one in the suburbs of Philadelphia and the other

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Speaker 1: suburbs across this nation. What are those suburbs gonna do?

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Speaker 1: What is your sense, is an outsider to the domestic

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Speaker 1: political game, what is your sense of what the vaunted

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Speaker 1: suburbs are going to do? Yeah, I suspect they're going

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Speaker 1: to swing a little bit more for Biden. But let's

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Speaker 1: be clear, Republicans in those suburbs are more concerned about

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Speaker 1: law and order. Democrats in those suburbs are more concerned

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Speaker 1: about the pandemic. Republicans in those suburbs are overwhelmingly going

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Speaker 1: to vote in person on the day. Democrats in those

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Speaker 1: suburbs are going to vote overwhelmingly by mail. The pandemic

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Speaker 1: matters here, and the fact that the president has decided,

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Speaker 1: with a lot of help from the Attorney General, the

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Speaker 1: voting by mail is I legitimate it and so you

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Speaker 1: shouldn't count those votes. Those votes are gonna be stolen,

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Speaker 1: Those votes are gonna be rigged. That's enormously important, And

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Speaker 1: what plays out in the two weeks after election day

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Speaker 1: in terms of those ballots is really much more about

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Speaker 1: what we're gonna play for than than just how the

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Speaker 1: members of those suburbs end up deciding themselves. This is

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Speaker 1: this is an election, Tom Francine, where afterwards, I think

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Speaker 1: almost no matter how it plays out, unless it's a landslide,

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Speaker 1: and I don't think it's gonna be a landslide. I

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Speaker 1: think a decent piece of the American public is gonna

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Speaker 1: believe that the election is unfree and unfair, and by

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Speaker 1: the way, I think there's a decent chance that will

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Speaker 1: indeed turn out to be the case. I've never said

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Speaker 1: that in the US election performer. I'll say that about

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Speaker 1: elections in developing countries, I'll say that about authoritarian states,

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Speaker 1: never said about the United States before. It's gonna be

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Speaker 1: a very ugly few months. There's no question about that,

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Speaker 1: all right, even thanks so much Inny Bremmer there if

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Speaker 1: you're Ratio, some pretty strong words. Thanks for listening to

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on

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Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keene before the podcast. You can

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Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio