WEBVTT - What's Wright - Predicting NFL win totals, Chiefs record + Florida-Houston reaction 0:00:01.520 --> 0:00:04.600 Welcome in walch Draight with the great episode three seventeen, 0:00:04.840 --> 0:00:11.080 fresh off a wild NCAA Tournament championship game and maybe 0:00:11.280 --> 0:00:17.840 wilder Western Conference playoff bracket as we head into the 0:00:17.880 --> 0:00:21.800 final five days of the season, and we have right 0:00:21.840 --> 0:00:26.560 now five teams all with thirty two losses both of 0:00:26.600 --> 0:00:30.680 those topics. Shortly on the show, and then as promised 0:00:30.760 --> 0:00:35.000 last week, we will do our annual NFL Over Unders 0:00:35.120 --> 0:00:40.680 NFL Win Total show. These these are not locked for us. 0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:47.240 We will do our preseason gambling show post draft. Obviously 0:00:47.320 --> 0:00:50.879 it's post free agency, late in training camp where we 0:00:51.280 --> 0:00:55.920 actually make these bets. Now the heads up for the 0:00:55.960 --> 0:00:59.640 gambling stuff we're doing shortly. There might be a few 0:00:59.680 --> 0:01:02.639 that we like so much that we just say we're 0:01:02.680 --> 0:01:05.600 gonna bet them right now. We will if we say that, 0:01:05.640 --> 0:01:09.920 we will mark those down and count those toward our 0:01:10.120 --> 0:01:14.240 season long ledger that we you know, do the accounting 0:01:14.280 --> 0:01:16.600 for at the very end of the football season. But 0:01:16.760 --> 0:01:19.559 some of these are just leans in one direction or another. 0:01:19.840 --> 0:01:22.920 We'll do all of that, uh, before we get to that. 0:01:23.040 --> 0:01:26.280 Welcome in, Demanse, Demanse, how are you I know this 0:01:26.400 --> 0:01:30.640 is the single most banal topic of any phone call 0:01:30.840 --> 0:01:33.760 or even a podcast. But I am curious. What is 0:01:33.800 --> 0:01:35.959 the weather like in Los Angeles right now? 0:01:37.080 --> 0:01:40.760 It's pretty amazing, pretty good, I'd. 0:01:40.520 --> 0:01:47.600 Say it is. Still It's April eighth. The Masters starts Thursday. 0:01:48.280 --> 0:01:53.120 It's forty something degrees in New York. I am. It 0:01:53.160 --> 0:01:56.720 has gone on long enough that your mother came downstairs 0:01:56.760 --> 0:01:59.720 today and just said to me, I think I need 0:01:59.760 --> 0:02:04.080 to go away for a month. Not me, her, She's like, 0:02:04.160 --> 0:02:08.240 I just I just need to go somewhere warm for 0:02:08.360 --> 0:02:12.760 a month. She said, the weather is just sapping my energy. 0:02:13.680 --> 0:02:16.960 So at some point the way, it's gotta get warm 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:21.440 in New York. At that point, deep, it's man. Usually 0:02:21.480 --> 0:02:25.200 April's like a top tier New York month. Whatever. Nobody cares. 0:02:25.200 --> 0:02:29.800 All right, here's what missed the cut. Alex Ovechkin breaks 0:02:29.800 --> 0:02:33.160 a record that I did not think was breakable, the 0:02:33.200 --> 0:02:36.080 Gretzky scoring record. Now, let me also say something else 0:02:36.160 --> 0:02:38.600 I don't. I think it's very important on this show 0:02:38.639 --> 0:02:42.160 to not pretend to be an expert on everything. People 0:02:42.280 --> 0:02:45.440 get themselves in trouble. You pretend to be an expert 0:02:45.480 --> 0:02:47.560 on everything, you might all of a sudden find yourself 0:02:47.600 --> 0:02:50.919 talking lebron in the morning, Govetchkin in the afternoons, and 0:02:50.960 --> 0:02:53.120 the Gaza Strip at night. No one would do that 0:02:53.160 --> 0:02:55.680 and then seriously say they're gonna run for president and 0:02:55.720 --> 0:02:59.880 then be wrong about all three. I try not to, 0:03:01.120 --> 0:03:04.640 you know, pretend that I know to mix some tariff 0:03:04.680 --> 0:03:07.520 stuff in there as well be an expert on everything. 0:03:07.800 --> 0:03:10.480 But I'm a diehard sports fan, and I'm enough of 0:03:10.480 --> 0:03:13.000 a diehard sports fan to know Wayne Gretzky is the 0:03:13.000 --> 0:03:16.000 only athlete I've ever seen that if you go to 0:03:16.080 --> 0:03:19.840 his Wikipedia page, even though the Internet is endless and 0:03:19.919 --> 0:03:23.919 a page can just scroll forever, and you're like, hey, 0:03:23.960 --> 0:03:26.720 what records does Wayne Gretzky have, you have to go 0:03:26.760 --> 0:03:30.200 to a separate Wikipedia page where it's like, actually, all 0:03:30.280 --> 0:03:34.520 of Wayne Gretzky's records are here. So I just assumed 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:38.920 this was unbreakable. And then when I heard Ovechkin broke it, 0:03:39.520 --> 0:03:41.680 or when I obviously I knew he was going to 0:03:41.720 --> 0:03:43.680 break it the last month or so it's been in 0:03:43.720 --> 0:03:47.800 the news, and I just said, again, folks can say 0:03:47.840 --> 0:03:50.280 bad sports fan, Nick for not knowing this. I assumed 0:03:50.280 --> 0:03:53.600 Ovechkin must be like a Bobby Ors style guy that 0:03:53.720 --> 0:03:57.760 played until his mid forties, and then I saw alex 0:03:57.800 --> 0:04:01.440 Ovechkin after he broke the record, and I was like, oh, confirmed, 0:04:01.720 --> 0:04:05.040 this guy played until his late forties. Turns out alex 0:04:05.080 --> 0:04:08.080 Ovechkin is thirty nine years old. That is a hard 0:04:08.160 --> 0:04:11.800 thirty nine for alex Ovechkin. He's younger than me now 0:04:11.880 --> 0:04:15.880 and and incredibly wealthy. Say it again, No, it's not 0:04:15.960 --> 0:04:18.320 just the it's not just the greay. It just like 0:04:18.440 --> 0:04:22.159 and maybe it's the you know, the the that coming 0:04:22.240 --> 0:04:24.680 up you know in Russia is tough. I don't know, man, 0:04:24.839 --> 0:04:27.960 but alex Ovechkin, for a guy that rich and that successful, 0:04:28.520 --> 0:04:31.680 you know, that's a hard thirty nine. But unbelievable. He 0:04:31.720 --> 0:04:34.960 breaks s Gretzky's record. Everyone thought it was unbreakable. Here's 0:04:34.960 --> 0:04:39.960 something almost as unbelievable. Gino Wriama Demonse has coached in 0:04:40.160 --> 0:04:45.279 thirteen National Championship Games. That in and of itself is remarkable. 0:04:45.680 --> 0:04:49.360 He's twelve and one in those games. Twelve and one 0:04:49.560 --> 0:04:52.960 in the National Championship Games. I'm so happy for Paige. 0:04:53.560 --> 0:04:58.039 I think she you know that her recruiting class, the 0:04:58.160 --> 0:05:05.799 top five for her high school class page, Angel Caitlin, 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:14.320 Oh the Bank, Cameron Brink Yes. And then Cardosa. Those five, 0:05:14.960 --> 0:05:19.440 all of them champions, oddly except for Caitlyn and Page 0:05:19.640 --> 0:05:21.840 had to stick around a year longer because she blew 0:05:21.839 --> 0:05:26.120 out her knee. She got her title. Hopefully Juju can 0:05:26.160 --> 0:05:29.680 have the same trajectory gets delayed because you blew out 0:05:29.680 --> 0:05:34.200 the knee, goes and win the title. And then the 0:05:34.440 --> 0:05:39.000 other big game this weekend that didn't miss the couple. 0:05:39.080 --> 0:05:41.400 We'll do it quickly and then we'll get to it more. 0:05:41.400 --> 0:05:44.040 In the West playoff push segment was the Lakers dog 0:05:44.120 --> 0:05:49.479 walking the Thunder and my what, what's your little woe? 0:05:49.760 --> 0:05:50.080 Thunder? 0:05:52.760 --> 0:05:54.480 They weren't in that game. I mean, they played all 0:05:54.480 --> 0:05:59.880 their guys and the I said on the TV show 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:05.200 Friday that the perfect weekend for the Lakers was beating 0:06:05.240 --> 0:06:10.080 the Thunder. I'm sorry, beating the Pelicans, beating the Thunder 0:06:10.560 --> 0:06:15.600 and then sitting everyone Tuesday and when they play the 0:06:15.640 --> 0:06:17.960 Thunder again tonight. And I don't know if you've seen 0:06:18.000 --> 0:06:20.360 the points spread in that game, but it's okay see 0:06:20.440 --> 0:06:24.840 minus fifteen because Vegas thinks that's exactly what the Lakers 0:06:24.880 --> 0:06:33.599 are gonna do, and basically denying the Thunder the opportunity 0:06:33.640 --> 0:06:37.320 for any get back, leaving in the back of their head. 0:06:37.480 --> 0:06:41.320 Wait a minute, Luca knocked us out of the playoffs 0:06:41.360 --> 0:06:46.359 last year. They just crushed us this year. Luca's team, 0:06:46.720 --> 0:06:50.000 we still have no one to guard him. That to 0:06:50.040 --> 0:06:56.080 me is absolutely ideal, particularly when the other reason I 0:06:56.080 --> 0:06:59.120 said they should rest guys is they play they being 0:06:59.120 --> 0:07:04.680 the Lakers the MAVs tomorrow. So the Lakers since Saturday 0:07:05.360 --> 0:07:08.480 will have played the Thunder the Thunder again and then 0:07:08.480 --> 0:07:12.800 the MAVs. The MAVs have not played since Saturday, so 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:15.240 the Lakers it would be their third game in four nights. 0:07:15.480 --> 0:07:17.960 The MAVs would be their first game in four nights. 0:07:18.320 --> 0:07:21.840 So now they're letting their guys rest and be ready 0:07:21.880 --> 0:07:24.160 for that game knowing and again more on this in 0:07:24.200 --> 0:07:28.440 the Western Rammicks playoff bracket stuff, if the Lakers go 0:07:28.520 --> 0:07:31.480 two and two in their final four, they lock up 0:07:31.520 --> 0:07:34.520 the three seed. If we just chalk tonight up as 0:07:34.560 --> 0:07:39.840 a loss, what it means is MAVs Rockets Tanking Blazers 0:07:39.880 --> 0:07:42.640 final game of the year. If you win two of 0:07:42.680 --> 0:07:46.120 those games, you lock up the three seed, which is 0:07:46.240 --> 0:07:50.520 gold for the Western Conference. My other takeaway for thunder 0:07:50.720 --> 0:07:58.160 Lakers before we get to last night's championship game. The Thunder, 0:07:58.360 --> 0:08:03.240 more so than any team the Western Conference, have so 0:08:03.440 --> 0:08:10.440 much depth defensively, and even the Thunder found themselves in 0:08:10.480 --> 0:08:14.120 a spot where it's like, hold on, if my best 0:08:14.160 --> 0:08:18.280 wing defender is on Luca and my second best wing 0:08:18.360 --> 0:08:21.960 defender is on Lebron, then who the hell is guarding 0:08:22.000 --> 0:08:26.040 Austin Reeves. And when you look at the Western Conference 0:08:26.120 --> 0:08:31.120 playoffs and you look across every team the Lakers could 0:08:31.160 --> 0:08:37.920 play and say power rank their wing defenders, all of 0:08:37.960 --> 0:08:42.360 these teams have at least one really good one, a 0:08:42.720 --> 0:08:49.920 couple have two pretty good ones. Only the Thunder have 0:08:50.120 --> 0:08:55.760 three really good ones. Everyone else, Austin Reeves is just 0:08:55.880 --> 0:09:01.840 going to be feasting on a meeting bad defensive player. 0:09:03.040 --> 0:09:08.440 And the Rockets have two awesome ones in Amen Thompson 0:09:08.520 --> 0:09:12.920 and Dylan Brooks, But who's the third? And so that's 0:09:12.960 --> 0:09:19.440 going to be a sneaky, huge edge for the Lakers 0:09:19.440 --> 0:09:24.200 in any series. As far as I am not going 0:09:24.240 --> 0:09:26.439 to act as if because of that game, oh there's 0:09:26.600 --> 0:09:29.440 you know, systemic issues with the Thunder, and Thunder gonna 0:09:29.440 --> 0:09:34.240 win sixty seven games, they're awesome. The concerns, however, would 0:09:34.240 --> 0:09:39.319 be as follows. The youth is just never seeing a 0:09:39.360 --> 0:09:41.920 team this young make the finals, much less win it. 0:09:42.240 --> 0:09:46.760 Everyone has said that is your second best guy good enough? 0:09:46.960 --> 0:09:53.040 That's a Jalen Williams chet Holmgren question. We'll see how 0:09:53.120 --> 0:09:57.480 will the playoff whistle impact Shay? He seemed to get 0:09:57.480 --> 0:10:00.600 it this weekend against the Rockets and the Lakers and 0:10:00.640 --> 0:10:03.040 it impacted them a bit. And then this is the 0:10:03.160 --> 0:10:05.720 last piece of it that I have not heard enough 0:10:05.760 --> 0:10:08.880 people make the point of when it comes to handicapping 0:10:08.920 --> 0:10:12.520 the Thunder for this championship. One of the reasons the 0:10:12.559 --> 0:10:18.000 Thunder have this insane point differential is they are legit 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:22.600 twelve quality NBA players deep, and so even when they 0:10:22.600 --> 0:10:25.960 have guys out, and certainly when they go to their bench, 0:10:26.280 --> 0:10:28.960 their bench is so much better than the other team's 0:10:29.000 --> 0:10:33.840 bench in the playoffs. How good your ninth, tenth, eleventh, 0:10:33.840 --> 0:10:38.680 and twelve guys are is mostly irrelevant because you're really 0:10:38.760 --> 0:10:43.120 just playing seven or eight guys, So will that edge 0:10:43.120 --> 0:10:46.800 be muted a bit? Those are all legitimate questions. Remember, 0:10:47.360 --> 0:10:52.160 like rate subscribe review, We're just this close to two 0:10:52.240 --> 0:10:55.760 hundred thousand on YouTube. That'd be awesome to get there 0:10:55.920 --> 0:10:58.560 during you know, maybe the play in of the or 0:10:58.600 --> 0:11:02.120 the NBA Playoffs, certainly in the first round so and 0:11:02.559 --> 0:11:05.280 you can watch us live on YouTube. Will also, by 0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:08.960 the way, be doing these emergency kind of reaction shows 0:11:09.200 --> 0:11:11.760 throughout the NBA Playoffs. You can get those not just 0:11:11.800 --> 0:11:14.200 on YouTube, where we'd love for you to like, rate, subscribe, 0:11:14.240 --> 0:11:17.600 and review. It helps us a ton, but also on iTunes, Spotify, everything. 0:11:17.760 --> 0:11:22.760 But now to the championship game last night Demon Day. 0:11:22.800 --> 0:11:26.960 I was pulling for Houston because of our ties to Houston. 0:11:27.080 --> 0:11:31.120 I also like Kelvin Sampson, tell us what happened? 0:11:31.880 --> 0:11:34.280 Well, yeah, I mean Houston went from winning that crazy 0:11:34.320 --> 0:11:37.360 one against Duke on Saturday. I mean we have I've 0:11:37.360 --> 0:11:40.040 been pulling for Houston, but that rep should be investigated 0:11:40.080 --> 0:11:43.120 from that game on Saturday. Okay, but yeah, so they 0:11:43.160 --> 0:11:46.320 lost the crazy one to Florida yesterday off of the 0:11:46.360 --> 0:11:49.080 potential double drib or whatever. What are your thoughts on 0:11:49.120 --> 0:11:50.200 the tournament and how it ended. 0:11:52.160 --> 0:11:57.240 I mean, I have a lot of thoughts here. Houston 0:12:00.120 --> 0:12:06.600 did not get a shot up, not on the final possession, 0:12:08.480 --> 0:12:13.679 on their final four possessions. They didn't hit the rim 0:12:13.880 --> 0:12:18.800 seemingly for the last two minutes of that game. And 0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:22.320 somebody had a tweet that I wish I could give 0:12:22.360 --> 0:12:24.920 them credit because I thought it was really funny and 0:12:25.840 --> 0:12:30.319 actually pretty kind of profound almost talking about Houston's style 0:12:31.000 --> 0:12:36.120 because they're just such a ferocious, relentless, tough defensive team. 0:12:36.520 --> 0:12:41.439 Where they said, I imagine Houston's practices are just three 0:12:41.520 --> 0:12:44.560 hours of suicides and punching each other in the face, 0:12:45.360 --> 0:12:49.320 and that kind of is how they played. But there's 0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:55.120 downside to that, which is they never you never felt 0:12:55.240 --> 0:13:00.160 like they were against a great team going to be 0:13:00.200 --> 0:13:04.400 able to definitively put them away. And they had opportunities 0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:08.560 against Florida to put them away when that defense was 0:13:08.640 --> 0:13:13.000 just giving Florida fits, and Florida's you know, stuck around, 0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:16.840 just like Houston did against Duke, just long enough to 0:13:16.960 --> 0:13:22.319 where you see the college kids tighten up and Houston's 0:13:22.400 --> 0:13:27.720 kids tightened up. Walter Clayton Junior, you know, had a 0:13:27.760 --> 0:13:32.440 great final flourish in this game after you know, with 0:13:32.559 --> 0:13:35.040 five minutes left in this game, it looked like this 0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:38.480 was gonna be the first game in two years he 0:13:38.520 --> 0:13:40.640 had a sixty one game streak of hitting a three. 0:13:40.720 --> 0:13:43.280 He didn't hit one until late in the game. He 0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:46.320 obviously didn't score his first basket until late late in 0:13:46.360 --> 0:13:48.160 the first half or was it early second half, I 0:13:48.200 --> 0:13:52.520 don't even remember, but Florida was able to stick around 0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:55.960 and then steal it at the end. Not getting a 0:13:56.000 --> 0:13:59.520 shot off in that spot is just the stuff of 0:13:59.640 --> 0:14:02.800 apps nightmares for a coach. But they didn't get a 0:14:02.800 --> 0:14:06.720 shot off like it was if you just look at 0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:10.920 what Houston did over the final two minutes, because one 0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:13.200 of the possessions they did get a shot up, it 0:14:13.240 --> 0:14:16.560 was essentially an air balled layup. They were getting no 0:14:16.800 --> 0:14:21.040 good looks. And when you go to the waning moments 0:14:21.040 --> 0:14:28.520 of the game, after LJ. Cryer made missed a layup 0:14:28.560 --> 0:14:31.320 and then tipped in his own miss with two thirty left, 0:14:32.320 --> 0:14:37.640 here were Houston's possessions. Made a free throw, then missed 0:14:37.640 --> 0:14:47.600 a free throw, badly missed the three offensive rebound miss jumper, 0:14:48.120 --> 0:15:00.320 offensive rebound, turnover, turnover, turnover, turnover. To not get a 0:15:00.440 --> 0:15:05.560 shot on the rim in the final two minutes of 0:15:05.600 --> 0:15:10.360 the ninety seconds of the game is just so crushing 0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:13.440 and you feel so sick for Kelvin Samson. 0:15:15.080 --> 0:15:17.280 Yeah, but my I mean. 0:15:17.160 --> 0:15:24.240 Because again, yeah, seventy say it again that Oh yeah, well, no, 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:28.760 I'm talking about the coach LJ. Cryer. LJ. Cryer the 0:15:28.800 --> 0:15:31.680 back to back turnovers and then Emmanuel Sharp had the 0:15:31.680 --> 0:15:35.480 back to back turnovers late. I mean both there. But 0:15:35.800 --> 0:15:39.040 for Kelvin who was a great coach, got a show 0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:42.280 cause penalty and got run out of college basketball for 0:15:42.280 --> 0:15:45.880 a while, came back and what he's done at Houston 0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:54.040 is remarkable since he's been there. It's our buddy. Buddy's 0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:57.640 probably too strong. But the kid we root for, Quinton Grimes, 0:15:58.160 --> 0:16:02.480 you know, was there and they were a legitimate contender 0:16:03.320 --> 0:16:06.480 since he's been there. So Calvin Sampson took over a 0:16:06.520 --> 0:16:10.240 mediocre team. His first year, they're thirteen to nineteen. His 0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:13.800 next two years they're in the NIC and then since then, 0:16:13.960 --> 0:16:17.360 this is what they've done. Twenty seven wins, and they 0:16:17.400 --> 0:16:22.320 won a tournament game, thirty three wins, and get popped 0:16:22.360 --> 0:16:28.480 in the Sweet sixteen, then COVID year, then twenty eight wins, 0:16:28.840 --> 0:16:34.560 Final four, thirty two wins, Elite eight, thirty three wins, 0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:40.720 Sweet sixteen, thirty two wins, Sweet sixteen, thirty five wins, 0:16:42.280 --> 0:16:50.800 lose the championship game by two, and you know, you 0:16:50.800 --> 0:16:53.480 you hope he has another great shot. You don't know 0:16:53.520 --> 0:16:57.239 if he's gonna have another great shot. He turned seventy 0:16:57.680 --> 0:17:03.880 next season, he'll keep coaching. But man, oh man, it 0:17:05.600 --> 0:17:09.800 as much as they stole one from Duke, they absolutely 0:17:09.880 --> 0:17:13.919 let one get away. And so I had two recurring 0:17:13.960 --> 0:17:16.760 thoughts in that game. One was Duke had to be 0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:18.760 watching this game, like, you gotta be fucking kidding me, 0:17:20.000 --> 0:17:25.400 Like the we we should be in this game. And 0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:30.120 you know they they their collapse was different than Houston's. There. 0:17:30.320 --> 0:17:35.240 I know you put it on that you hate. I mean, 0:17:35.240 --> 0:17:39.080 it's a bad call. Bad college drafts are bad, and 0:17:39.160 --> 0:17:44.400 the review process in college basketball is truly truly awful. 0:17:44.920 --> 0:17:49.000 And what nobody ever acknowledges when they're like, oh they 0:17:49.040 --> 0:17:51.040 have to get it right and oh, we've got the 0:17:51.160 --> 0:17:54.320 tenths of a second could matter. And I bring up 0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:59.320 every time, you know what also matters fatigue and these 0:17:59.480 --> 0:18:05.080 this idea that being the better conditioned team should you 0:18:05.160 --> 0:18:08.200 should lose all edge from that in the final two 0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:11.880 minutes of these games, because every out of bounds call 0:18:11.920 --> 0:18:14.240 there's going to be a one to four minute break 0:18:14.600 --> 0:18:18.680 to review it. I hate it so much, But set 0:18:18.680 --> 0:18:23.920 that aside. My other takeaway from really this entire tournament, 0:18:23.960 --> 0:18:27.880 but certainly the final four. We had four number one seats. 0:18:28.160 --> 0:18:31.000 We had by kin Palm rankings, four of the best 0:18:31.040 --> 0:18:38.280 college basketball teams of the last decade all playing. And 0:18:38.359 --> 0:18:47.159 despite that, you've never seen a better illustration for the 0:18:47.520 --> 0:18:54.080 glaring and massive gap between the talent and skill level 0:18:54.640 --> 0:19:01.480 between guys who are good enough to be starters and 0:19:01.600 --> 0:19:05.359 big time players for the best college basketball teams in 0:19:05.400 --> 0:19:08.560 the country and guys who are good enough to play 0:19:08.600 --> 0:19:15.120 in the NBA. Like college basketball in the modern era, 0:19:15.880 --> 0:19:19.960 where guys don't stick around typically for that long, the 0:19:20.000 --> 0:19:24.400 best players never do, and teams don't stick together. The 0:19:24.560 --> 0:19:30.160 gap between that and the skill and talent and ability 0:19:30.280 --> 0:19:33.639 it takes to play in the NBA is the widest 0:19:33.800 --> 0:19:38.680 it's ever been, and it's why a guy like Walter 0:19:38.800 --> 0:19:42.800 Clayton junior, who is going to be goes into the 0:19:42.840 --> 0:19:48.040 tournament a fringe first round pick, can just dominate and 0:19:48.119 --> 0:19:54.560 when most outstanding player like it is. I know there 0:19:54.560 --> 0:19:59.560 are some people, particularly where I'm from in the Midwest, 0:19:59.680 --> 0:20:03.920 that swear and I always thought this was an odd 0:20:04.640 --> 0:20:09.399 stance to hold love college basketball hate the NBA. Now 0:20:09.400 --> 0:20:11.440 I'm not saying you have to like the NBA more 0:20:11.440 --> 0:20:15.440 than college basketball. Again, they're different sports to teach their own. 0:20:15.760 --> 0:20:19.880 But that was always felt to me a more than 0:20:19.920 --> 0:20:24.840 a little racially charged opinion. The love college basketball hate 0:20:24.880 --> 0:20:28.679 the NBA take because you simply never hear that in 0:20:28.880 --> 0:20:32.640 college football. Certainly have people that like college football more 0:20:32.640 --> 0:20:35.800 than the NFL, but I've never once met a single 0:20:35.840 --> 0:20:40.880 person who's, like, I love college football, can't stand the NFL. 0:20:41.359 --> 0:20:44.440 But you do hear that sometimes College basketballt least where 0:20:44.440 --> 0:20:46.080 I grew up, used to all the time, and I 0:20:46.119 --> 0:20:51.240 always thought that was a little quizzical. But they're they're 0:20:51.320 --> 0:20:57.479 just so vastly different products. Throughout this tournament, when guys 0:20:57.680 --> 0:21:02.560 made open shots, you were impressed. In the NBA, if 0:21:02.600 --> 0:21:06.200 a guy misses an open shot, you are shocked. And 0:21:07.440 --> 0:21:11.159 this game, being stuck in the forties late into the 0:21:11.200 --> 0:21:19.080 second half, just a vivid reminder of how incredibly difficult 0:21:19.200 --> 0:21:22.879 it is for the guys who actually can make it 0:21:22.920 --> 0:21:26.919 to the league. But congrats of Florida. Walter Clayton junior 0:21:27.359 --> 0:21:31.960 going into this year, Demonse on most mock drafts was 0:21:32.000 --> 0:21:35.879 not even a second rounder going into this tournament. In 0:21:35.960 --> 0:21:40.280 most mock drafts, was a fringe first second rounder. And 0:21:40.400 --> 0:21:43.960 now he's probably gonna be a late lottery pick. He's 0:21:44.000 --> 0:21:47.399 a little older. He's not that athletic man, old man 0:21:47.640 --> 0:21:48.240 that say it. 0:21:48.240 --> 0:21:49.440 Again, late lottery pick. 0:21:51.400 --> 0:21:55.119 No, it's awesome, it's great. What he has working against 0:21:55.160 --> 0:21:58.440 him is he doesn't have the great athleticism and he's 0:21:58.440 --> 0:22:02.159 played for five years and so or four years. So 0:22:02.240 --> 0:22:05.080 people are always, you know, twenty two to twenty three, 0:22:05.119 --> 0:22:09.600 how high is the ceiling? But I wonder if he 0:22:09.720 --> 0:22:14.920 could have a Dalton Connects style draft day where when 0:22:14.960 --> 0:22:17.439 he gets he gets drafted by a decent team or 0:22:17.480 --> 0:22:19.840 a good team and people are like, oh man, he 0:22:19.920 --> 0:22:23.520 can maybe help you immediately, even if he doesn't have 0:22:23.600 --> 0:22:26.359 like all star potential. All right, let's go to the 0:22:26.480 --> 0:22:28.800 NBA before we get to our NFL over unders. 0:22:29.280 --> 0:22:31.560 So things are gonna come down to the wire. On 0:22:31.640 --> 0:22:34.560 the West side, everyone from the three to eight seed 0:22:34.600 --> 0:22:37.560 are separated by max of two games, and then everybody 0:22:37.600 --> 0:22:39.800 from the four to eight are basically tied and losses. 0:22:41.320 --> 0:22:42.879 So how do you think it's gonna go? 0:22:43.720 --> 0:22:49.080 So, first of all, credit to the Rockets for removing 0:22:49.119 --> 0:22:55.840 themselves from this group. The Rockets are I I thought 0:22:55.880 --> 0:22:59.600 the Rockets were about to get punched in the face 0:23:00.119 --> 0:23:03.040 by the schedule because and I think we talked about 0:23:03.040 --> 0:23:11.920 it last week, their final five games were Thunder Warriors, 0:23:12.920 --> 0:23:16.120 and then and they played those two already and won them. 0:23:16.280 --> 0:23:21.159 And then it goes Clippers Lakers, Nuggets. But it doesn't 0:23:21.160 --> 0:23:26.520 matter now because and this actually could work in the 0:23:26.560 --> 0:23:29.439 Lakers favor. I don't know if what the Rockets will do, 0:23:30.119 --> 0:23:34.080 but the Rockets just need to either win one or 0:23:34.520 --> 0:23:37.480 have the Lakers lose one and they lock up the 0:23:37.520 --> 0:23:41.919 two seed. So because the Lakers max out at fifty 0:23:41.960 --> 0:23:45.280 two wins, the Rockets already at fifty two wins, so 0:23:46.080 --> 0:23:48.600 if the Lakers. So here's why I say this could 0:23:48.600 --> 0:23:51.440 work out in the Lakers favor. If the Lakers lose 0:23:51.480 --> 0:23:56.720 tonight to the Thunder, which they will, the Rockets lock 0:23:56.840 --> 0:24:01.080 the two seed. No matter what. Will that make the 0:24:01.200 --> 0:24:05.040 Rockets in Game eighty one against the Lakers rest some 0:24:05.160 --> 0:24:07.720 people I don't know now, maybe they would feel like 0:24:07.760 --> 0:24:10.560 they don't need to. But set that aside. Credit to 0:24:10.600 --> 0:24:14.240 the Rockets for handling their business. Now to the three 0:24:14.320 --> 0:24:16.000 through eight, and we can throw it on the screen 0:24:16.920 --> 0:24:21.520 the Lakers. The reason that Lakers two game lead is 0:24:21.760 --> 0:24:26.360 actually a three game lead is this. They have the 0:24:26.400 --> 0:24:31.560 tiebreaker over literally every single team on the screen. There, 0:24:32.080 --> 0:24:34.560 Nuggets are the four, Clippers, of the five, Warriors, of 0:24:34.600 --> 0:24:37.520 the six, Timbrelves of the seven, Grizzlies of the eight, 0:24:38.280 --> 0:24:41.560 Lakers forty eight and thirty, Nuggets forty seven and thirty two, 0:24:41.640 --> 0:24:44.879 and then Clippers, Warriors, Timberlves, Grizzlies all forty six and 0:24:44.960 --> 0:24:49.320 thirty two. The Lakers have the tiebreaker with every one 0:24:49.359 --> 0:24:53.680 of those teams. That is a symptom of the fact. 0:24:53.880 --> 0:24:57.399 In one of the craziest stats of the season, the 0:24:57.440 --> 0:25:02.040 Oklahoma City Thunder this year the Western Conference are thirty 0:25:02.160 --> 0:25:06.080 five and thirteen. The Los Angeles Lakers against the Western 0:25:06.080 --> 0:25:11.879 Conference are thirty four and fourteen. So why are the 0:25:11.920 --> 0:25:14.399 Thunder gonna win sixty seven and the Lakers are right 0:25:14.440 --> 0:25:17.520 now sitting at forty eight. Well, the Thunder are twenty 0:25:17.600 --> 0:25:23.280 nine to one against the East and the Lakers are 0:25:23.520 --> 0:25:27.960 They are fourteen and sixteen against the East. So I 0:25:28.000 --> 0:25:30.600 mean that's the difference in the standings, but that is 0:25:30.680 --> 0:25:33.800 given the Lakers the tiebreaker over everyone. So I think 0:25:33.840 --> 0:25:38.120 it's gonna go like this. The Lakers lose tonight, they 0:25:38.119 --> 0:25:42.320 beat Dallas and then maybe they beat Houston. If they 0:25:42.359 --> 0:25:45.320 don't beat Houston, they certainly beat Portland and they are 0:25:45.359 --> 0:25:51.040 the three. And now the interesting piece of it, Denver, 0:25:51.760 --> 0:25:57.359 which is falling apart, has not recovered from the Westbrook debacle. 0:25:58.600 --> 0:26:01.119 Joker can just put up four, forty five, fifteen and 0:26:01.160 --> 0:26:03.840 fifteen every night, it doesn't matter. And I don't know 0:26:03.840 --> 0:26:06.280 if you heard what Michael Malone said the other day, 0:26:06.480 --> 0:26:10.760 when Michael Malone said, yeah, Jamal Murray, we hope he's 0:26:10.840 --> 0:26:16.760 ready for the playoffs. That's concerning. I think Denver is 0:26:16.880 --> 0:26:23.480 going to lose to Memphis. Let's assume they beat Houston, 0:26:24.000 --> 0:26:27.320 because that'll be game eighty two for Houston, and Houston 0:26:27.480 --> 0:26:30.600 likely is not gonna, you know, be playing their people. 0:26:32.600 --> 0:26:38.720 Whether or not Denver falls to the play d will 0:26:38.960 --> 0:26:43.399 likely be determined by how they do against Sacramento in 0:26:43.560 --> 0:26:48.240 Denver when they play on what do they play tonight 0:26:48.320 --> 0:26:50.359 or Wednesday? I should have had that up in front 0:26:50.359 --> 0:26:53.800 of me. I apologize Denver plays tomorrow when they play 0:26:53.840 --> 0:27:02.639 Sacramento tomorrow, the Clippers again, so much of this is 0:27:02.680 --> 0:27:06.480 predicated by what the Rockets do as far as resting guys, 0:27:07.200 --> 0:27:10.680 cause the Clippers play the Spurs tonight, so the Clippers 0:27:10.680 --> 0:27:16.760 will win tonight, and then the Clippers play Houston next. 0:27:17.119 --> 0:27:22.200 But the question is is Houston, assuming the Lakers lose tonight, 0:27:22.560 --> 0:27:26.240 gonna be playing their guys. If they are, then that 0:27:26.280 --> 0:27:30.680 should be a great game. The Clippers after that are 0:27:30.760 --> 0:27:35.680 at Sacramento at Golden State. Golden State has an absolute 0:27:36.240 --> 0:27:42.000 three consecutive layups at Phoenix. I saw Phoenix in person 0:27:42.080 --> 0:27:46.840 at the Garden Friday night that they are cooked, so 0:27:47.080 --> 0:27:50.600 pix Golden State will beat Phoenix, then the Spurs, who 0:27:50.720 --> 0:27:54.120 don't want to win, then the Blazers. So Golden State 0:27:54.200 --> 0:27:57.200 is going to be forty nine and thirty two going 0:27:57.359 --> 0:28:03.200 into the final game against the Clippers, which the Clippers 0:28:03.560 --> 0:28:07.320 are going to need to win potentially to avoid the 0:28:07.320 --> 0:28:12.720 play in, potentially for seeding. So Warriors Clippers game eighty 0:28:12.800 --> 0:28:22.199 two massive. Right. The Grizzlies are at Milwaukee, at Memphis, 0:28:22.800 --> 0:28:28.240 and then home for Brooklyn in Utah. So Minnesota, Brooklyn, 0:28:28.280 --> 0:28:31.600 and Utah are auto wins. Those teams are not trying. 0:28:33.200 --> 0:28:39.240