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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Noman of the Action Network. I am

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Speaker 1: live from my Tommy John home studio and them joined

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Speaker 1: as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre,

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Speaker 1: my BFF professional better Simon Hunter.

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Speaker 2: Hello, So I'm in, Hello Chad.

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Speaker 3: How are we doing, dude?

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Speaker 1: Today is our NFL Wild Card Best Bets episode. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna do something a little bit different with today's show. Normally,

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Speaker 1: we only look at sides for each game. Those are

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Speaker 1: the most popular bets, and we do the contests that

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Speaker 1: are tied to them.

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Speaker 2: But there are fewer games.

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Speaker 1: Our opinions on the sides we like haven't changed that

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Speaker 1: much since Tuesday. We've gotten some new intel, then lines

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Speaker 1: are moving, so I think we're feeling more strongly about

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Speaker 1: some games. But we're adding any other best that we

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Speaker 1: like as well, which a couple people have emailed me

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Speaker 1: about if we could add that.

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Speaker 2: Hopefully I will give folks more to look for, more

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Speaker 2: to root for, more to think about.

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Speaker 1: For this weekend, we will of course get into the foxhole.

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Speaker 1: We'll give out our Tommy John Big Ball's bet of

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Speaker 1: the week, We'll discuss your biggest bets, We'll do our

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Speaker 1: boosted money line, underdog parlay, so on and so on

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Speaker 1: later on in the show. Today, Simon and I did

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Speaker 1: have a chat. This was fantastic and I encourage everyone

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Speaker 1: to listen with Daniel Winsenberg, the pride of North Dakota

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Speaker 1: bow Bells, North Dakota, population three hundred and he lives

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Speaker 1: outside of bell Bells.

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Speaker 2: He's the winner of.

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Speaker 1: Our forty thousand dollars first place prize and the favorites

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Speaker 1: Pro Football Pick Them contest, an absolute pleasure with a

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Speaker 1: kicker surprise ending that could have Simon and I end

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Speaker 1: up being the most popular names in our all of

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Speaker 1: bow Bells, North Dakota. So please listen for that's He's

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Speaker 1: great and he deserves the attention. Bets are rolling in,

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Speaker 1: lines are moving, decisions need to be made. As our

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Speaker 1: volume podcast, Boss Colin Cowhard likes to.

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Speaker 2: Say there's a sea of money out there.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorite Podcast is presented by Bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets

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Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars. Son of using promo code

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Speaker 1: favorite deposit fifty dollars. Deposit ten dollars in place to

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Speaker 1: bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used

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Speaker 1: on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,

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Speaker 1: It's never ordinary at bet three sixty five must be

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Speaker 1: twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

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Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off an io terms. Conditions

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Speaker 1: restrictions apply all right, as always on Thursdays, we like

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Speaker 1: to hear how the wise guys are responding to our

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Speaker 1: Tuesday conversation. I especially like to hear how they're responding

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Speaker 1: to me and our Tuesday conversation.

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Speaker 2: But whatever the.

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Speaker 1: Case is, they feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions.

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Speaker 2: Let's do sharp calls.

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Speaker 3: Hello, who's there, I'm talking Rain.

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Speaker 1: Rain telephone rang somebody saying maybe wanted to do.

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Speaker 3: In Yeah, it's a week of some disagreement. Chat, I

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Speaker 3: think we already knew that coming into us. We loved

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Speaker 3: the Chargers, so let's start with that one. We are

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Speaker 3: firmly with Joe Public on that one basically, and you

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Speaker 3: probably have talked to you. For the most part is

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Speaker 3: on the other side. And I kind of knew they

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Speaker 3: were going to because all the trends kind of favorite

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Speaker 3: the Houston side. But I thought it would be more

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Speaker 3: people basing off their models and just you know what

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Speaker 3: they've watched, And I think they're just going to go

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Speaker 3: play the statistical numbers and the you know, the fact

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Speaker 3: that the percentage of say, if you long term you

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Speaker 3: bet Houston's exact spot, that's a winner long term. But

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Speaker 3: me and Chad ain't here to do that. Me and

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Speaker 3: Chat are going with a bet that we think is

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Speaker 3: smart and we think we're getting a great number, especially

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Speaker 3: in my two and a half. So that feels like

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Speaker 3: the biggest sharp trap of the week. It feels like

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Speaker 3: they're walking into one and that everyone just pretty much

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Speaker 3: patting each other on the ass and saying how smart

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Speaker 3: each each other are on Houston, And you know, could

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Speaker 3: they cover it? Sure? Houston's been a team that's played

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Speaker 3: close games all season. I don't fault the for taking

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Speaker 3: the three, but I just don't understand the logic not

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Speaker 3: taking the two and a half on the charters. To me,

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Speaker 3: that's that's the no no. So I'm excited to break

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Speaker 3: that one down even more because I do have opinion

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Speaker 3: on that total next game. Shockingly, Chad, the the pros

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Speaker 3: i've talked you like the Ravens, which I am shocked by.

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Speaker 3: I thought it would be Pittsburgh heavy. It's not. As

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Speaker 3: obviously there are pro like me who just are taking

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Speaker 3: that ten, Like, how do you not take that? Plus ten?

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Speaker 3: That was such a great number, still feels like a gift.

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Speaker 3: Even Beth three six'y five is still holding at ten

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Speaker 3: at their book. But when you talked a lot of

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Speaker 3: these booksmakers, it's like the amount of money they have

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Speaker 3: on the Ravens, adding in professional money that's come in

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Speaker 3: on the Ravens, especially early, like the Ravens open seven

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Speaker 3: and a half, like that was basically all the money

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Speaker 3: they got earlier was just professional money and pretty interesting

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Speaker 3: hearing guys though, still willing to take the Ravens at

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Speaker 3: minus nine and a half, and I just I don't know.

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Speaker 3: It feels like I'm taking crazy pills here, and I

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Speaker 3: get where they're coming from. Right, Tomlin hasn't won a

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Speaker 3: playoff game since whatever it is, twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen.

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Speaker 3: I understand that, but I just can't. I can't believe

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Speaker 3: these guys are this confident, taking a double digit favorite

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Speaker 3: in and against a divisional foe who's they've struggled against.

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Speaker 3: So again, that's another game we're going to go through.

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Speaker 3: You were on the professional side in this bill is

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Speaker 3: one I thought more pros were on Denver. It's it's split,

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Speaker 3: for sure, but it's more pros I've talked to do

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Speaker 3: like this Bills side, and it is going back to

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Speaker 3: what you know, we talked about with Evan or I

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Speaker 3: guess we haven't yet, but just basically, these quarterbacks making

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Speaker 3: their first start, it's it's a real thing. We have

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Speaker 3: the numbers that back it up. Like it's just different.

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Speaker 3: The playoffs are simply just different. And now you factor

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Speaker 3: in that this is a rookie making their first start,

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Speaker 3: and yeah, we had a little run there where you know,

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Speaker 3: Brock Purty won his first start CJ last year right

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Speaker 3: against Joe Flac on the Browns won his first start,

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Speaker 3: so we haven't had a little comeback to other way.

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Speaker 3: That makes even more confident in this going the other

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Speaker 3: way because we are due for more of these first

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Speaker 3: time quarterbacks to get lost this year. So that was

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Speaker 3: when they jumped out. I did not think pros would

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Speaker 3: be on the bills, but they love the bills. We

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Speaker 3: are on the public side, chat, I think you already

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Speaker 3: knew that our our egos love is heavily public, you know.

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Speaker 3: I think I, you know, talked to a handful of

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Speaker 3: guys that had bet the Eagles, but none of it

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Speaker 3: with confidence. Everyone and I've talked to you thinks is

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Speaker 3: a trap game for this Eagles team and that you know,

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Speaker 3: too many people are discounting and counting out this Green

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Speaker 3: Bay team. That I mean, I think you touched on

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Speaker 3: a little bit Chad with the floor. They're just such

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Speaker 3: a well coached team, and he performed so well as

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Speaker 3: an underdog. This is a really a little floor spot,

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Speaker 3: like in this exact scenario, he tends to cover these numbers,

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Speaker 3: so you know, doesn't make me feel great. I got

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Speaker 3: this out a minus six number, and I had a

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Speaker 3: couple of guys being like, you're fucking way off. That's

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Speaker 3: a bad number. You should have trusted your original number

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Speaker 3: of four. And I just I push back on that.

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Speaker 3: I just think this Eagles team is just so good

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Speaker 3: across the board, and they're fully healthy. Even watching Jalen

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Speaker 3: Hurts in that practice the other day, it's like, you know,

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Speaker 3: you would never know he's coming off two weeks of

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Speaker 3: a concussion not working out like he just looks fully informed,

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Speaker 3: ready to go. So I'm excited to break that one down.

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Speaker 3: See if if you're confidence a way, they're all like,

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Speaker 3: you know, I still love the Eagles, but I'm probably

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Speaker 3: gonna invest a little bit more in green Bay first quarter,

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Speaker 3: green Bay first half. So that'll be my a little

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Speaker 3: bit of a hedge hred trust the Eagles to really

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Speaker 3: roll them in the second half. But I agree with

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Speaker 3: the professionals that they they think the Egles might come

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Speaker 3: out sol a little sloppy against a green Bay team

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Speaker 3: that is going to be prepared and ready to play

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Speaker 3: in this game. You know, here's a game that we love.

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Speaker 3: The professionals love Washington, Tampa Bay. We love Tampa. The

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Speaker 3: pros love Tampa, public loves Commanders. We already know that,

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Speaker 3: So that I don't even need to dive into that

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Speaker 3: too much. We'll break that down we go through the games.

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Speaker 3: Last one not a shocker at all. I mean, this

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Speaker 3: is another side. We love Rams, the public loves loves

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Speaker 3: loves Minnesota. I haven't talked to a single pro yet

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Speaker 3: that has taken the Viking side, And you know, a

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Speaker 3: couple of guys I talked to haven't bet this. Their

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Speaker 3: view is I can wait and maybe this number will

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Speaker 3: flip and I can get this Vikings team as a dog,

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Speaker 3: and that's the position I want to be on. And

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Speaker 3: I joke with them. I'm on the complete same mindset

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Speaker 3: from the other side, where it's like I've been betting

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Speaker 3: the one and a half on this Rams team, but

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Speaker 3: I really have been loading up on teasers with them,

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Speaker 3: like this is my favorite teaser team, them and the Bills.

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Speaker 3: I know it's sacrilegeed to tease through zero Wong teasers,

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Speaker 3: but I kind of don't really respect Wang teasers, especially

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Speaker 3: when it comes to playoff time. I feel like it's

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Speaker 3: a little outdated. I've been teasing the Chargers through zero

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Speaker 3: up to three and a half, so I have a

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Speaker 3: couple them at three and a half Rams up to

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Speaker 3: seven and a half. I just love this number. And

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Speaker 3: you know that's a game where yes, we know what's

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Speaker 3: happening in California. Me and Chad, we think of all

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Speaker 3: these people and all these guys' families who are being

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Speaker 3: affected by these fires, and could that be a major

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Speaker 3: issue for a lot of these RAMS players who do

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Speaker 3: have stuff going on outside the field and they have

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Speaker 3: major distractions of course, but me and Chad we can't

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Speaker 3: handicap that, Like we're just going off the numbers here.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, for the most part, Chad, we're dead on

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Speaker 3: with our love of the Bucks and the Rams. On

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Speaker 3: the other games, it all sounds pretty split up between

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Speaker 3: the professionals, So it's it's an interesting week for sure.

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Speaker 1: Well let's get into it. Let's start with that Chargers

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Speaker 1: game right now. The number at bet three sixty five

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Speaker 1: got this Chargers minus three.

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Speaker 2: The total is forty two and a half.

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Speaker 1: There is a two and a half out there, it

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Speaker 1: is available. I've hit the two and a half a

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Speaker 1: couple times. I know, Simon, you've probably hit it more.

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Speaker 1: This was my exact decision stats that I didn't mention

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday, And again, I know you know the wise

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Speaker 1: guys they have been leaning into the Texans. If you

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Speaker 1: listen to Stucky in Raybon on the Action Network pod,

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Speaker 1: they freaking love the Texans. This weekend, Stroud finished thirty CJ.

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Speaker 1: Stroud finished thirty first in EPA and completion percentage over expectation. Okay,

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Speaker 1: the Texans finished thirty first in early down success rate

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Speaker 1: head of just the Browns.

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Speaker 2: We talked about the O line. CJ.

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Speaker 1: Stroud pressured twenty eight percent of his dropbacks. That was

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Speaker 1: second most in the league and one of the reasons

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Speaker 1: a lot of the analysts all season long, if you

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Speaker 1: read anybody who was breaking down CJ. Stroud's troubles, they

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Speaker 1: were talking about his achilles heel. This year has been

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Speaker 1: against defenses running two high safety schemes. Chargers do list

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Speaker 1: nearly sixty percent of the time and Shrouds YPA against

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Speaker 1: this is twenty eighth, and his QB rating is thirty first.

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Speaker 1: So I still feel good about it. I am not

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Speaker 1: expecting some kind of miraculous recovery that all of a

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Speaker 1: sudden this team is going to be different than it

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Speaker 1: was all throughout the season. Normally, in the playoffs, when

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Speaker 1: teams lose, they lose because of the same things they

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Speaker 1: did all season long, Right, isn't that always what happens?

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Speaker 1: Like you watch a playoff game, and the things that

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Speaker 1: have been bugaboos for teams throughout the year are the

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Speaker 1: reasons why they.

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Speaker 2: Can't convert, can't get over the top in the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: The things that the Chargers are good at are the

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Speaker 1: things that the Texans have struggled with. I don't get

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Speaker 1: the love, Simon, I don't get the wise guy love

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Speaker 1: for the Texans here at all.

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Speaker 3: Well, again, a bunch of different things that I think

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Speaker 3: they look into, especially if you're looking at the trends,

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Speaker 3: is this is the you know, another tough road game,

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Speaker 3: a tough spot for this Chargers team, And historically when

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Speaker 3: teams have played a bunch of road games in a row, right,

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Speaker 3: doesn't work out for them right heading to the playoffs,

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Speaker 3: we've kind of seen it that, you know, Evan had

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Speaker 3: an amazing stats since two thousand and three, teams that

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Speaker 3: are on their third road games or later on any

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Speaker 3: road trip, they're forty five and seventy one straight up,

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Speaker 3: so thirty nine percent. And these teams are five and

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Speaker 3: twelve straight up over the last three seasons of this

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Speaker 3: exact spot So that's kind of logic right that they're like.

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Speaker 2: Oh, you know what I would like to know.

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Speaker 1: I'd like to know maybe Evan, you can figure this

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Speaker 1: out and we can talk about it in the show.

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Speaker 1: Teams that are on the third road game as a favorite,

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Speaker 1: I don't know what this sample sizes. This is going

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Speaker 1: to be for Jim Harbaugh, Bill Belichick, the coaches who

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Speaker 1: I think are real difference makers. You know, you can

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Speaker 1: throw in some John Harbaugh, other coaches who in these

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Speaker 1: past twenty years have been real factors when it comes

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Speaker 1: to power rating these teams, and I think this year

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Speaker 1: it matters more than ever, and I just think that's

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Speaker 1: going to put them in a better position to accumulate

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Speaker 1: points in the exact spot where they need.

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Speaker 3: To and just to close it out. And basically a

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Speaker 3: team like the Chargers playing this exact spot. So three

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Speaker 3: straight road games into the playoffs, they're eleven and twenty

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Speaker 3: seven straight up. So they only went twenty nine percent

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Speaker 3: of the time. So that's what I said on Tuesday.

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Speaker 3: I was fine with me Chad that thirty percent. Like again,

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Speaker 3: it happens obviously that one out of three times, So

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Speaker 3: we're basically banking on that here making this bet for

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Speaker 3: the most part, but it really is all about kind

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Speaker 3: of what you just touched on there. It's about this

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Speaker 3: Chargers team they're coaching Herbert himself, like, I just have

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Speaker 3: a ton of confidence guy, especially as a favorite on

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Speaker 3: the road. Like he's been really good to us as

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Speaker 3: a favorite on the road, and usually when the books

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Speaker 3: price him that way, it tends to go our way.

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Speaker 3: And you know, he's seven to one against the spreadings

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Speaker 3: exact spot his last eight, so it's like he clearly

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Speaker 3: has done really well in this exact scenario of being

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Speaker 3: on the road as a favorite. And you know, it's

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Speaker 3: interesting talking to pros just why they're so confident in

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Speaker 3: this Texan thing. When you do push them chat and

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Speaker 3: you try to get them to really break it down,

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Speaker 3: it feels like they're betting on a Texas team that

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Speaker 3: doesn't exist anymore.

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Speaker 1: Like I was just those are the exact words when

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Speaker 1: you were saying they're betting on the Texans teams. I

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Speaker 1: was in my head, I'm saying that doesn't exist. It's

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Speaker 1: not a Texans team that they think they're betting.

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Speaker 3: And a Texas team.

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Speaker 1: What they're really good at on defense is pressuring the quarterback.

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Speaker 1: The Chargers have two of the best tackles in the

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Speaker 1: NFL and Joe Alton Rashaan Slater, so the one thing

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Speaker 1: that they're great at, and their secondary is so banged

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Speaker 1: up they're down to third stringers across the board when

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Speaker 1: you're talking about quarnerbacks like well, not Stingley obviously, but

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Speaker 1: in other positions they can stop the pressure because their defense,

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Speaker 1: their tackles are so good.

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Speaker 3: And I do see a word where they can cover

303
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Speaker 3: the summer just because yes, if the moment's too big

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Speaker 3: for Herbert and Houston's defense, who has played really well

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Speaker 3: all season. We know how great of a coach Damiko

306
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Speaker 3: Rans is and how he just gets his defense fired

307
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Speaker 3: up and ready to play in almost every game. That

308
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Speaker 3: is their formula, right, somehow keep this game ugly and close.

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Speaker 3: But we've seen it. The Chargers team. They just don't

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Speaker 3: play that. They don't they're never the ones that make

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Speaker 3: the mistakes, and if you want to play ugly, they're

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Speaker 3: happy to play it ugly, like they are more than

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Speaker 3: happy to do that. But we've seen them transition this

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Speaker 3: second half of the season, where you know Herberts has

315
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Speaker 3: gotten so much more comfortable. These wide receivers and his receivers.

316
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Speaker 3: You know, we can knock them for their drops. They

317
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Speaker 3: have gotten better as the seam's gone long here and

318
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Speaker 3: his connection with Lad McConkie's grown as well. So it's

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Speaker 3: like it feels like these are two different teams that

320
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Speaker 3: I don't think the professions have given enough credit to

321
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Speaker 3: the Chargers team, how they've improved and discrediting this Houston

322
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Speaker 3: team that have lost so many key pieces to this team.

323
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Speaker 3: So yeah, weill me and Chad be killing ourselves with this.

324
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Speaker 3: Lane's on two if the Chargers win, but it's by

325
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Speaker 3: two and we've been choking all season, how important two

326
00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:35,560
Speaker 3: and a half is? Yes, that's gonna hurt. But I

327
00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:37,920
Speaker 3: have to trust the number here and think me and

328
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Speaker 3: you are getting a really good number. And if you're

329
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Speaker 3: like me and you're kind of feeling like a little

330
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Speaker 3: bit of a coward with this one, just because the

331
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Speaker 3: pros are so heavy on Houston, tease it through zero. Like,

332
00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:49,280
Speaker 3: if you're getting charges three and a half, there is

333
00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:51,960
Speaker 3: no scenario, no snare I see Houston winning by more

334
00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:54,080
Speaker 3: than three. If they do win this like that to

335
00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:56,480
Speaker 3: me is by far the safest bet. But if you'd

336
00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:58,360
Speaker 3: like to be a risk taker, which me and Chad are.

337
00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:01,320
Speaker 3: I don't know how you don't take this Chargers number here,

338
00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:04,480
Speaker 3: and you know, obviously I keep talking with this defense here.

339
00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:07,280
Speaker 3: I love the under as well, Like this is to

340
00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:09,640
Speaker 3: me another play on this game where it's like, that's

341
00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:11,840
Speaker 3: way too high of a total. I got it at

342
00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:14,160
Speaker 3: forty one. It was forty three and a half. It's

343
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Speaker 3: been bet down to forty two and a half. Still

344
00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:18,440
Speaker 3: that's a key number. You're still getting great value on

345
00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:20,960
Speaker 3: this number. So this is there's a couple of games

346
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Speaker 3: I like the under end. This is towards the top

347
00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:24,359
Speaker 3: of my list. I really love this under.

348
00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:26,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was going to say, I think I lean women.

349
00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:29,240
Speaker 1: I want to talk about the total, so I lean

350
00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:32,960
Speaker 1: that way as well. I think it'll be conservative. I

351
00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:35,040
Speaker 1: think they're going to try to limit their own mistakes,

352
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Speaker 1: potentially forcing some from Stroud and.

353
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Speaker 3: We'll know we'll be dead and playoffs are weird. We'll

354
00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:43,120
Speaker 3: be dead in a minute chat if this goes over,

355
00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:46,119
Speaker 3: like if it's twenty to fourteen the first half the

356
00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:49,760
Speaker 3: writings on the wall, we're dead. But that's that's my

357
00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:51,760
Speaker 3: view of this, where it's like I can just see

358
00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:53,920
Speaker 3: one offense of one of these teams showing up. The

359
00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:56,080
Speaker 3: other other offense just not going to get it going because,

360
00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:58,200
Speaker 3: like we said, these are two defenses that do know

361
00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:00,000
Speaker 3: how to scheme it up and play well against teams.

362
00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,399
Speaker 3: So yeah, I do. I do love this total.

363
00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:09,240
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is a nine point underdog right now at bet

364
00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:14,040
Speaker 1: three sixty five against the nine and a half I'm sorry,

365
00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:17,399
Speaker 1: against the Ravens. The total forty three and a half.

366
00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:20,199
Speaker 1: This was Simon says when it was at ten. It

367
00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:22,320
Speaker 1: has moved to nine and a half. It's at ten

368
00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:25,520
Speaker 1: in some other places. It was ten at bet three

369
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Speaker 1: sixty five this morning and now it's back down.

370
00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:30,880
Speaker 2: So we do not officially know.

371
00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:34,640
Speaker 1: The status as a Flowers. He did not practice earlier

372
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:38,399
Speaker 1: this week. Ian Rapaport of NFL Network has reported it

373
00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:42,520
Speaker 1: that he is a long shot to play. Like we

374
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Speaker 1: talked on Tuesday, we were going to run through some

375
00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:49,520
Speaker 1: of the trends for the Steelers, and it does worry

376
00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:52,000
Speaker 1: me how well teams that are double digit faves have

377
00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:54,280
Speaker 1: performed in the wildcard round.

378
00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:59,240
Speaker 2: But this is not the same Steelers.

379
00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:02,720
Speaker 1: Team I think that lost thirty four to seventeen to

380
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Speaker 1: the Steelers that lost thirty four to seventeen to the

381
00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:11,479
Speaker 1: Ravens a few weeks ago. Reminder, under Tomlin Steelers are

382
00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:13,760
Speaker 1: six and one as a dog of more than three

383
00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:16,720
Speaker 1: points versus the Ravens. That one loss was on the

384
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Speaker 1: twenty first of December. Over the last twenty years, underdog

385
00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:24,399
Speaker 1: in the series, seventy four percent underdog sixteen three in

386
00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:29,680
Speaker 1: one since twenty fifteen. Tomlin twenty one, sixteen straight up,

387
00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:33,959
Speaker 1: nineteen fifteen three against spread versus John Harbaugh as a

388
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Speaker 1: dog thirteen three and two. Now, you tell me how

389
00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:42,760
Speaker 1: much you hate playing Lamar in the playoffs, because you do.

390
00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:47,280
Speaker 1: But I just think the Steelers defense is better than

391
00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:50,320
Speaker 1: it was when they played on the twenty first. They

392
00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:52,119
Speaker 1: were missing a lot of guys in the secondary. We

393
00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:54,600
Speaker 1: talked about Joey Porter going out of the middle of

394
00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:57,359
Speaker 1: that game. That's when the tides started to turn and

395
00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:00,639
Speaker 1: they really needed to be perfect on offense and they weren't.

396
00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:06,000
Speaker 1: So I'm still good with the Steelers here at ten. Obviously,

397
00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:07,719
Speaker 1: would rather have the ten than nine and a half.

398
00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:11,639
Speaker 1: I'm surprised the wise guys are so confident about the Ravens.

399
00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:16,080
Speaker 3: I think they're confidence stems from the struggle of Russell

400
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:18,160
Speaker 3: Wilson down the stretch and if even that game you're

401
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:19,720
Speaker 3: talking about, if you go back to it, it's a

402
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,560
Speaker 3: seven to seven game and they are driving the field

403
00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:25,480
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh and they're into the red zone. Russell Wilson runs

404
00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,480
Speaker 3: with the ball and instead of sliding, he tries to

405
00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:30,919
Speaker 3: get that extra one or two yards, gets popped and fumbles.

406
00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 3: That to me, would flip that whole game. Like that

407
00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:36,200
Speaker 3: gave all the momentum back to the Ravens and then

408
00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:38,560
Speaker 3: we know the issue, right they got Yeah, two more

409
00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 3: injuries on the defense you just talked about. Joey Porter

410
00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:42,080
Speaker 3: Junior went out in that game all of a sudden.

411
00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:45,680
Speaker 3: It was just rolling. Like Lamar was into his zone.

412
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:48,360
Speaker 3: That's the key for Lamar. If he gets into his zone,

413
00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 3: into our rhythm, we're probably gonna be cooked here, brother,

414
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:53,159
Speaker 3: Like this guy is the two time MVP.

415
00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:55,399
Speaker 2: Might be three times, like you know, she don't know,

416
00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:56,720
Speaker 2: should be three times?

417
00:20:57,240 --> 00:20:59,560
Speaker 3: Wow, really you're one of those Oh my god.

418
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:02,919
Speaker 1: Totally if you if you took the names off the

419
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:07,879
Speaker 1: list and did not know Lamar Jackson had won the

420
00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:11,800
Speaker 1: past two and you looked at the numbers, it's not

421
00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:15,880
Speaker 1: even comparable. It really isn't. He was such a good

422
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:20,560
Speaker 1: quarterback this year, so much better statistically than Josh Allen

423
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:25,160
Speaker 1: in so many ways. It's not even it shouldn't even

424
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:25,879
Speaker 1: be a conversation.

425
00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:27,400
Speaker 2: It really shouldn't.

426
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 3: That's fair. Maybe it's kind of like Leo getting his Oscar, right,

427
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:32,719
Speaker 3: I think that's how I feel with Josh Allen. It's

428
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:35,600
Speaker 3: like he has earned the right to get this MVP

429
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:37,719
Speaker 3: in my view because of what he's done over his

430
00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:41,280
Speaker 3: career and this amount of time. And I agree with you, Lamar,

431
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:44,919
Speaker 3: incredible season and everything like that, but I am I'm

432
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:46,200
Speaker 3: one of those people. I'm kind of dugg in on

433
00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:47,920
Speaker 3: Josh a. I think he deserves it for the season

434
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 3: he put together, just because it's all about expectations, right,

435
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:54,920
Speaker 3: And I look back to the start of the year

436
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:57,160
Speaker 3: and I just I'm just blown away with Josh Allen

437
00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:59,840
Speaker 3: accomplished with this team that we thought had nothing left

438
00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 3: on the flip side of Lamar, not that I'm saying

439
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:04,600
Speaker 3: I expected it, but come on, man, the dude had

440
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:06,679
Speaker 3: he got Derrick Henry. That was a huge upgrade to

441
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,320
Speaker 3: this guy who was already MVP before getting the second

442
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,520
Speaker 3: third best running back of football. But yeah, for this

443
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 3: game specifically. You know, we know the stats about Lamar, right, Lamar,

444
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:20,240
Speaker 3: me and Chad have talked at NAS about this guy.

445
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:22,879
Speaker 3: He is probably my favorite quarterback to bet on in

446
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 3: the regular season. He just is a cash cow. He

447
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:26,719
Speaker 3: is so good to me and Chad and we kind

448
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,680
Speaker 3: of have a rhythm with him. We know at this number,

449
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:31,880
Speaker 3: you take him when it's under three, right, you take

450
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 3: them when it's above three, either fad or you just

451
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:38,360
Speaker 3: stay away. And you know, we can't avoid the numbers

452
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,439
Speaker 3: that are out there for the playoffs. And I know

453
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:42,880
Speaker 3: the fans get upset about and they're like, you can't

454
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,920
Speaker 3: keep judging right. Eventually, Peyton Manning got over the hump.

455
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:49,879
Speaker 3: I agree, you eventually will get over the hump. I

456
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:52,199
Speaker 3: just I'm not going to be betting on it. Like

457
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:56,000
Speaker 3: he burned me so hard last year where it was

458
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,359
Speaker 3: lined up perfectly for him and his team, he couldn't

459
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 3: do it, and like he turned back into Lamar. And

460
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 3: you know in the regular season, Lamar twenty and five

461
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 3: straight up in night games. Incredible, twenty and five straight

462
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:10,560
Speaker 3: up in night games. He plays like that's an insane

463
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 3: stat that he's eighty percent. In the playoffs, he's owing

464
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,439
Speaker 3: two in night games, and you'd be like, well, it's

465
00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 3: it's individual games. Okay. He lost the Bills on the

466
00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:21,720
Speaker 3: road seventeen to three, and then he lost at home

467
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,159
Speaker 3: twenty eight to twelve against that Titans team. And that

468
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 3: is if you go through the day, like you said, Chad,

469
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 3: double digit favorites have performed really well seventeen and one

470
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:33,160
Speaker 3: straight up. That one loss is that Titans game. So

471
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:35,640
Speaker 3: to me, there is something with this Lamar stuff where

472
00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:39,520
Speaker 3: it's like you can't overrate his struggles in the playoffs.

473
00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 3: I know people want to keep brushing it by, but

474
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 3: it's like, if you look at the list of two

475
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:46,480
Speaker 3: time MVPs, just about all of them have Super Bowl rings.

476
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:48,159
Speaker 3: He's one of the few guys that, you know it

477
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 3: just has not lived up to the hype and performance

478
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:53,399
Speaker 3: of the regular season in the playoffs. So to me,

479
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 3: this is the worst match that he possibly could have got.

480
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 3: He's going against a divisional foe that has his number,

481
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:02,920
Speaker 3: that plays really well against them. And I am very

482
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,680
Speaker 3: dug in on this, like I just love this Pittsburgh team. Now.

483
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 3: The only reason I'm not hammering people being like you

484
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 3: have to take Pittsburgh's money line you gotta do. It

485
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 3: is just because of tomlin struggle in the playoffs, like

486
00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:14,560
Speaker 3: his team just has not been winning these playoff games,

487
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:16,159
Speaker 3: and that is you know, you could say, well, you

488
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 3: guysn't have the quarterbacks and everything like that. I do

489
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:21,680
Speaker 3: agree with that, but some of it is on Tomlin,

490
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:23,919
Speaker 3: like he's just not had great decisions at the end

491
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:27,159
Speaker 3: of these playoff games. And you know, I'm gonna be

492
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:29,200
Speaker 3: betting it, but it's not gonna be me and Chad's

493
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:31,439
Speaker 3: money line around Robin, right, We're not that crazy at

494
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 3: this point, so or I should say our parlay we

495
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:36,159
Speaker 3: give out. So I do love it. I'm betting their

496
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:38,640
Speaker 3: money line. But to me, the smart safe bet here

497
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 3: is taking the plus ten if you can still get

498
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:42,760
Speaker 3: it on this Pittsburgh team. I just think that's way

499
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:45,720
Speaker 3: too much value on a game that's going to be close.

500
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:48,880
Speaker 3: And Chad, we know the deal here. If we get

501
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:51,919
Speaker 3: one or two of those magical Pittsburgh bounces which we've

502
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,880
Speaker 3: lived off of, they could upset and win this game.

503
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:58,199
Speaker 3: Like if the momentum flips to them, Lamar is going

504
00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:01,320
Speaker 3: to feel all that weight on him, and that to

505
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 3: me is something that is kind of the human element

506
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:06,040
Speaker 3: of it. It's something that I can't put into my model,

507
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 3: and we really can't put a number to it. But

508
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,439
Speaker 3: that's a real thing. Like if it's midway through the

509
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 3: third quarter, Lamar as zero touchdowns and a pick and

510
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:16,359
Speaker 3: he's down by say three or four points, he's going

511
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:18,159
Speaker 3: to be pressing, like there's no way he's not going

512
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 3: to be pressing and try to push a ball downfield

513
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 3: and we're asked, you just said it from the top

514
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,440
Speaker 3: of the show. Jay Flowers missed two practices in a

515
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:25,919
Speaker 3: row at this point, and he's a long shot to

516
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 3: playing this game. That's another thing that's not being talked

517
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 3: about enough. So yeah, I'm I think you clearly can

518
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:32,480
Speaker 3: tell I am heavily invested in. I really like this

519
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:33,399
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh number.

520
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 2: I'm on the number two, don't. I don't buy the Lamar.

521
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 1: Underperforming that in the playoffs, that data set for the

522
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:50,919
Speaker 1: zero to two specifically, Sometimes that just feels it feels

523
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 1: too small and circumstantial. And I feel like these players

524
00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:58,639
Speaker 1: change and get more confident. And I think if and

525
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 1: this is an interesting bet, the Ravens are great in

526
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,719
Speaker 1: the first half. If the Ravens do what they're supposed

527
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 1: to do in the first half. I think then he

528
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 1: will be in a good position. I also agree with you,

529
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 1: if they're struggling in the second half, some of that

530
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 1: weight will come to bear. I'm not sure I buy

531
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 1: the theory of anti Lamar as much as i'm pro

532
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 1: spot pro Steelers being better than they were when they

533
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 1: played you a little less than a month ago. One

534
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 1: of the hot bets for Action is and likely to

535
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 1: me a hot bet amongst regular betters is Baltimore first half,

536
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:40,640
Speaker 1: which is six and a half. Lamar are the best

537
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:43,200
Speaker 1: first half quarterback in the NFL in the past twenty years.

538
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 1: Steeler is the worst first half team against the spread

539
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:51,400
Speaker 1: in the NFL since twenty twenty one. Give a thought

540
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 1: on the first half the Steeler the Ravens six and

541
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:54,960
Speaker 1: a half.

542
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:58,879
Speaker 3: Well, I'll give you more useless numbers while I'm still here. Then, Lamar,

543
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 3: in his career chat and play off game, he's never

544
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:03,159
Speaker 3: won a game where his team is given more than

545
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 3: thirteen points. So, I mean, that's that's pretty alarming.

546
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 1: That don't take it personally that I'm not into one

547
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 1: of your stats.

548
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:16,360
Speaker 3: I haven't taken a personally. I'm standing up for find you,

549
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 3: but no, I just I just my whole point of

550
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:21,960
Speaker 3: just breaking down is that he's been choking brother. Like

551
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 3: guys want to deny it and be like, say what

552
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:25,480
Speaker 3: you just said. They're like, well, he can grow, he

553
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:27,920
Speaker 3: can change, all right, Well, let's fucking see it. I'm

554
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 3: gonna bet against it because it's like, I have no

555
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 3: data to back it up that he could. He has

556
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:35,719
Speaker 3: grown and changed. He dominates the regular season, and then

557
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:38,399
Speaker 3: he falls apart and does nothing in the playoffs. So

558
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 3: we're we're gonna see it. Like these defenses know they're

559
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:43,879
Speaker 3: gonna stack the box, They're gonna make Lamar pass in

560
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:48,399
Speaker 3: this game. So yes, if Lamar doesn't get tight, we

561
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:50,879
Speaker 3: know he's the We just said it. He's the second

562
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 3: or first best quarterback in football right now. So I'm

563
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:56,680
Speaker 3: with you, I get it. So yeah, that's just that's

564
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,400
Speaker 3: just my viewpoint is. I think it is a great

565
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 3: number with Pittsburgh and everything like that, and my model

566
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 3: backs it up. But the humanil of it of it,

567
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 3: I'm just thinking psychologically, he just seems like he gets

568
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 3: flustered in the playoffs and that's panned out these last

569
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:10,880
Speaker 3: couple of seasons.

570
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:13,200
Speaker 1: What do you think of the total to forty three

571
00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:15,719
Speaker 1: and a half. It moved down from forty six, So

572
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 1: it's a big move. I think partially because he's a Flowers.

573
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,119
Speaker 1: I think, yeah, maybe because people think.

574
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 2: He'll be tight. I would expect that it'll be a

575
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 2: low scoring game.

576
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:28,879
Speaker 3: You better hope. I just told you. I know his

577
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:33,359
Speaker 3: If his team allows more than thirteen points, he loses

578
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 3: Lamar apparently in the playoffs. But my view of it is,

579
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 3: if we're taking Pittsburgh, we can't have it be a shootout.

580
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 3: I have no confidence in Pittsburgh's offense in a shootout

581
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 3: right now. Like that Russell Wilson we joked about from

582
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 3: week ten and all those you know midweek throwing those

583
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 3: fifty to fifty balls and then working out for him.

584
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 3: That has not been there these last four or five weeks.

585
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:53,600
Speaker 3: And I think even Evans said it right. He hasn't

586
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 3: scored more than seventeen points in these last couple of weeks.

587
00:28:56,200 --> 00:29:00,280
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's it's not a game that for we

588
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 3: wanted to be a shot up. But I have no

589
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 3: view on the total. Like I was gonna bet the under,

590
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 3: but I'm show invested in Pittsburgh. That's just my play.

591
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 1: Well, look if it's the kind of correlation where it's

592
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:13,600
Speaker 1: a very low total with a very high spread. So

593
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 1: in those circumstances, you tend to want to lean into

594
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 1: the underdog because people expect it will be a low

595
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 1: scoring game, and it's just harder to win by ten

596
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 1: points in a low scoring game.

597
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 2: So I hope it goes out the way. With that,

598
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:27,440
Speaker 2: we wanted to Simon, Yes, sir, we're going.

599
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 1: To have the winner of the one hundred thousand dollars

600
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:36,640
Speaker 1: Favorites Pick Them Contest come on the show today. Daniel

601
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 1: Winsenberg from North Dakota.

602
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 2: I'm so excited. How about you?

603
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 3: I can't wait.

604
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:45,160
Speaker 2: Let's get to them.

605
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 1: It is truly one of our greatest thrills that we

606
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 1: get to do the Favorites Contest one hundred thousand dollars

607
00:29:55,800 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 1: giveaway the grand prize winner forty thousand dollars. And this guy, Folks,

608
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:08,760
Speaker 1: had a miraculous run. He had more five and zero weeks,

609
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 1: more undefeated weeks than he had losing weeks. If he

610
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 1: had not even played the final week, he still would

611
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:24,720
Speaker 1: have won the contest. He beat out fifteen thousand people

612
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 1: to win the forty thousand dollars he's North Dakota's finest gambler.

613
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 1: Daniel Winsenberg. Welcome to the Favorites, brother, congratulations.

614
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 4: Thank you. It's an honor to be on a show

615
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 4: and it was great and I love doing it and

616
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 4: trying to figure out who's gonna win it or or

617
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 4: who at least.

618
00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 1: Cover You live in bow Bells, bo Bells, bo Bells,

619
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 1: North Dakota. Dude, I looked on the map. Matt Mitchell

620
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 1: sent it around to everybody. This place is tiny, tiny, tiny.

621
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 4: My hometown as three hundred people in it. I live

622
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:06,640
Speaker 4: ten miles outside of that, and my graduating class had

623
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 4: ten kids in it.

624
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 3: So yes, I gotta know. How does one have Wi Fi?

625
00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 3: Do you have starlink you? How are you putting your

626
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:13,960
Speaker 3: picks in every week?

627
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:17,320
Speaker 4: We do have Wi Fi and luckily Dad O works

628
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 4: on phone, so it's not too bad.

629
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 2: What do you do there? Are you a farmer?

630
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 4: That is exactly what I am. Yes, I lived here

631
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:28,959
Speaker 4: my whole life. My dad and my uncle farmed and

632
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 4: then I just kind of joined in, and now me

633
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:34,640
Speaker 4: and my dad farmed together. My uncle retired, so that's

634
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 4: the story. So we don't need people, We just need

635
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 4: a lot of farmland, and I have cows too. We

636
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 4: do wheat, canola, derm, oats, flax, soybeans, peas, trying to

637
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 4: little corn. We're not really in corn country.

638
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:53,720
Speaker 1: But oat, flax, and soybeans. You basically described my entire diet.

639
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 3: IM They're going to ask about daylight savans. What's your

640
00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 3: view on that? That's the topic we should be asking

641
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 3: the farmer about. Should we change their foxes? Is that outdated?

642
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 4: We need to go to the actual daylight savings time

643
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:06,880
Speaker 4: because right now it's getting too dark too early.

644
00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 3: There you go, yeah, all.

645
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 1: Right, So give me your gambling load on. How did

646
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 1: you get into it? And why are you so good

647
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 1: at it?

648
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 2: Right now? It's so much better than me and simon.

649
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 3: Your ways.

650
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 4: Because I farm, I spend a lot of time by

651
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 4: myself or an a tractor or any equipment. So all day,

652
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 4: every day, I just listen to podcasts. Our way I

653
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:30,479
Speaker 4: found you, guys is I listened to cow Herd all

654
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 4: the time, and years ago when Chad was on with

655
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 4: cow Herd, I just wanted more gambling podcasts. So I

656
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 4: found out you had your own started listening every week,

657
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 4: and I said, I just listened to sports podcasts all day.

658
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 4: So between what my opinions are, see what I agree with,

659
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 4: what I don't agree with, and then I don't know,

660
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:50,240
Speaker 4: kind of go from there, I guess. And then every

661
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 4: Sunday I'm still in the tractor. I don't get to

662
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 4: take off to watch football, so I take an iPad

663
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:56,760
Speaker 4: with and put the red zone on and kind of

664
00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 4: just listen. Don't have a lot of time to watch it,

665
00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 4: but always paying attention, I guess.

666
00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 1: I mean, that's the hard thing about being a farmer

667
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 1: is the crops don't take a day off. The animals

668
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 1: don't take a day off.

669
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 4: Just because a Sunday doesn't meanly take the day off. Ever,

670
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 4: not during busy season, which is pretty much from April

671
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:16,480
Speaker 4: to October.

672
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:19,680
Speaker 1: Alright, Well, since you may be the greatest gambler who's

673
00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:23,080
Speaker 1: ever lived, according to your record, I'm looking at it

674
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 1: right now. You had two weeks where you went two

675
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 1: and three. One of them you got to drop. Every

676
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 1: other week was three and two, four and one, or

677
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:35,040
Speaker 1: five and zero. The big story this year in sports

678
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 1: betting is how frequently the favorites were covering. What was

679
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:44,479
Speaker 1: your strategy through the year with regard to favorites and

680
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 1: making your picks every.

681
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 4: Week, bad against bad quarterbacks. Will Levis against him every week, like,

682
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 4: I mean, it's really proved me wrong, and he didn't.

683
00:33:56,520 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 4: So I don't think like home field advantage meant this year.

684
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 4: So I mean, even betting favorites, I was doing a

685
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 4: lot of road favorites and it was paying out. I

686
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 4: hated it. Road favorites seemed to be cash in big time.

687
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 4: I found out after week ten that I was in

688
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 4: the running for winning. I think I was in second

689
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 4: place after week ten, and then I hated it. I

690
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:19,160
Speaker 4: don't know how you guys do it. It was so much

691
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 4: stress on it and I had no money into it.

692
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:23,920
Speaker 3: That's crazy. Every week or chasing a big prize and

693
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 3: you know that you can't. You literally couldn't have a

694
00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:27,920
Speaker 3: bad week, even though you didn't know that you could.

695
00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 3: I've had a bad week, you were that far ahead.

696
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:32,880
Speaker 4: Week fourteen, my girlfriend planned a trip for us to

697
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 4: go to Poutakana, which is awesome. Loved it, and I

698
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 4: was more stressed about getting my picks in because I

699
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 4: didn't know if I could get them in when I

700
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 4: was in another country. I was gonna have wi fi

701
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:44,279
Speaker 4: if I was going to miss two weeks. We're on

702
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:47,880
Speaker 4: a beach all inclusive resort and there's this little tiny

703
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:50,400
Speaker 4: sports bar in the corner of the lobby, and I

704
00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:52,239
Speaker 4: made her go in there and watch football with me

705
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 4: as I was trying to cover it. Luckily, we just

706
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 4: went for the end of the late games, but we

707
00:34:57,520 --> 00:34:59,839
Speaker 4: were still in there for like two hours. Turns out

708
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 4: end up going five and oh that week and picking

709
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:04,279
Speaker 4: the exact number of passing hours on Monday night, so

710
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 4: it ended up working out pretty good. So it was

711
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:07,280
Speaker 4: a pretty good trip.

712
00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:09,399
Speaker 1: Have you put yourself Have you been in that kind

713
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 1: of position before, like as a gambler or any other

714
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:14,640
Speaker 1: scenario where you've had to carry that kind of stress,

715
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:17,880
Speaker 1: Not like this farming doesn't do that to you.

716
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:19,960
Speaker 4: No, there's a little bit more leeway doing that. I mean,

717
00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:21,720
Speaker 4: you got to make great decisions, a lot of money

718
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:24,920
Speaker 4: involved in it, but it's not the stress like this

719
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:28,040
Speaker 4: or one bad week and you're out completely.

720
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 2: When did you realize that you won it all?

721
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:35,440
Speaker 4: I knew for sure after the early games on Sunday,

722
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 4: because I think I had a three game lead and

723
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:42,319
Speaker 4: the person a second third. They were tied. They going

724
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:44,799
Speaker 4: to cop me. I mean in gambling, I would not

725
00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:47,279
Speaker 4: not saying I win until the clocket zero.

726
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:49,359
Speaker 2: Have you decided what you're doing with the money?

727
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:52,239
Speaker 4: Yet kind of end up buying some cows the other

728
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 4: day after I won. Goodness, some of the profits will

729
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:59,279
Speaker 4: go to that. And then my other idea is I

730
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,480
Speaker 4: got really a big into the like sports memorabilia. When

731
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 4: I started this, my plan was I wanted to autograph

732
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:10,320
Speaker 4: Jersey of all the Minnesota Twins retired numbers, and I'm

733
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 4: halfway through getting them, so the part of it might

734
00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 4: go to buying the other half. I still need a

735
00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 4: Kirby Pucket Harmon Killer Brew and uh oh, can't Herbeck by.

736
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:22,839
Speaker 1: The way, let me see if I can remember ken

737
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:27,240
Speaker 1: Hrbek fourteen? Yes, man, come on, Simon.

738
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 3: Now I do have one request, Daniel, can you please

739
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:32,000
Speaker 3: name these cows after me and Chad?

740
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:36,040
Speaker 4: Yes, these are going to be known as the either

741
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:38,280
Speaker 4: the Favorites or the Action Network Group.

742
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 2: How many cows did you buy?

743
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 3: Well?

744
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:44,680
Speaker 4: I bought thirty six of them, so actually you've.

745
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:46,080
Speaker 3: Got a ton of acres. Guys.

746
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:49,719
Speaker 4: This forty thousand is not going to quite cover all

747
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 4: of them, but luckily I needed them anyway. This is

748
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 4: just helping out.

749
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:56,919
Speaker 1: Are they cows that you're gonna, like, do you milk

750
00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:57,839
Speaker 1: those cows?

751
00:36:57,880 --> 00:36:57,960
Speaker 5: Like?

752
00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:01,239
Speaker 3: What are beef be farm?

753
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:04,759
Speaker 4: They'll have cows and then I'll sell the steers, and

754
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:07,440
Speaker 4: then I'll I'll probably keep the heifers and then either

755
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 4: get a ball to breed them and then I'll sell

756
00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:11,920
Speaker 4: them as Brett heifers the next year, or I'll just

757
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:15,360
Speaker 4: keep them for myself and just kind of keep having calves.

758
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:19,839
Speaker 1: Whichever cows you name, Simon and Chad, let's not kill

759
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:27,480
Speaker 1: those cows. Those cows live a happy, long life just

760
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 1: chewing on grass and whatever else cows eat and make

761
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:37,440
Speaker 1: them warm and comfortable out there in North Dakota. Congratulations

762
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:41,320
Speaker 1: and winning the Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro

763
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:46,080
Speaker 1: Football Pick Them Contest. The Cow King of North Dakota.

764
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:49,760
Speaker 1: I wish we had just tailed you the whole season, Daniel,

765
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 1: Congratulations on a heat.

766
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 4: Thank you.

767
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:56,759
Speaker 2: You are the hero of the Favorites contest. Congratulations, Thank you.

768
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 1: Simon. We're gonna have two cows named after us. If

769
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 1: nothing else, it was worth doing the contest just for that.

770
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 1: We basically bought ourselves two cows for forty thousand dollars

771
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:10,279
Speaker 1: and he's not gonna kill him.

772
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:11,799
Speaker 2: He's gonna let him live forever.

773
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:16,000
Speaker 1: Denver at Buffalo. Buffalo is now a nine point favorite.

774
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:18,400
Speaker 1: This was a in the totals forty seven. This was

775
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:23,360
Speaker 1: a stubborn, stubborn eight and a half, one of the

776
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:28,440
Speaker 1: lines that barely budged during the week, it moved to nine.

777
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 1: I think this morning.

778
00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 2: At bet three sixty five. So much freaking.

779
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:38,480
Speaker 1: Love for Bonnicks, so much fear of Sean Payton and

780
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:41,759
Speaker 1: what they can scheme against the Bills defense that.

781
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:43,640
Speaker 2: Has struggled late in the year.

782
00:38:44,080 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 1: Buffalo thirtieth in EPA per pass allowed since week nine,

783
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:51,799
Speaker 1: thirty second in passing success rate.

784
00:38:52,840 --> 00:38:53,239
Speaker 2: I don't know.

785
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:59,759
Speaker 1: It's not like the Broncos defense is impervious to criticism.

786
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:03,200
Speaker 1: Josh Allen has dominated man coverage, which is what the

787
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:08,280
Speaker 1: Broncos play. Bon Nicks has been much worse against zone

788
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:11,840
Speaker 1: than against man, which is what the Bills predominantly play.

789
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 1: I still like the Bills here, It just feels like

790
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 1: it's primed for a veteran quarterback makes all the right moves.

791
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 2: Bon Knicks at.

792
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:24,480
Speaker 1: Some point can't have his handheld by Sean Payton in

793
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:26,799
Speaker 1: the most crucial moment of the game, and like we

794
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:29,400
Speaker 1: saw against the Bengals, will make a bad mistake.

795
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:31,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, and this will be all your credit if the

796
00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:33,880
Speaker 3: Bills do come this number, because you're you're the one

797
00:39:33,880 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 3: that really believes in it. I am the one that's

798
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:38,759
Speaker 3: like I wanted to be on Denver. I feel like

799
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:40,760
Speaker 3: I'm being bullied because everyone I've talked to you basically

800
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 3: the same as you. They like the Bills here. So

801
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:45,000
Speaker 3: I just put the Bills in a ton of teasers,

802
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:47,280
Speaker 3: like you're giving me Bills at minus two and a half.

803
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:50,600
Speaker 3: That's an amazing number against a rookie quarterback making his

804
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 3: first start on the road in the playoffs. So my

805
00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 3: fear is what you just talked about, this Bill's defense.

806
00:39:56,719 --> 00:39:58,959
Speaker 3: That's the fear like that it feels like the back

807
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:01,880
Speaker 3: door will be always open. And you know, if we

808
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:05,960
Speaker 3: get Josh Allen that we know and love and he

809
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 3: just goes full kill mode and he puts up forty points, yeah,

810
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:12,319
Speaker 3: they're covering that number. They're gonna abolutely roll this Denver team.

811
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:16,239
Speaker 3: But the fear for me is just if he has

812
00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 3: one or two bad drives, right if he just you know,

813
00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:21,920
Speaker 3: doesn't doesn't perform well or just lets this team get

814
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 3: back in it. We've kind of seen this, this Bill's team.

815
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 3: They let bad teams backdoor them, and now they're playing

816
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:29,360
Speaker 3: against an offense that is not bad, Like this is

817
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:32,280
Speaker 3: an offense that they know how to scheme up for Bonicks.

818
00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:34,400
Speaker 3: They know how to get him out wide or out

819
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:36,400
Speaker 3: in the open to either run the ball or pass

820
00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 3: it on kind of simple reads. You know, the biggest

821
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 3: thing for this Broncos team, they very are much so

822
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:45,919
Speaker 3: Champagne's image of the Drew Brees right, the quick read

823
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:50,160
Speaker 3: three yard pass. He really has embraced that. And you

824
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:52,279
Speaker 3: know that's the key with these young quarterbacks. If you

825
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:54,320
Speaker 3: can get them into third and four, third and threes,

826
00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 3: it's so important compared to them being thirty eight. Like,

827
00:40:57,640 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 3: you know, veteran quarterbacks can kind of get away with

828
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:01,759
Speaker 3: that stuff. Bo Knicks cannot, even though you know the

829
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:03,719
Speaker 3: numbers might back up. He's been good pushing the ball

830
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:06,279
Speaker 3: down the field. We've seen when he struggles against these

831
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:08,440
Speaker 3: good defenses because he's in the long positions right, and

832
00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:11,279
Speaker 3: he tries to force a ball in terrible turnovers like

833
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:14,960
Speaker 3: he's still a rookie. So yeah, I'm I'm backing you

834
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:16,920
Speaker 3: here because you're my guy, and I do believe in

835
00:41:16,920 --> 00:41:21,239
Speaker 3: this Bills team. You know, it feels like you know,

836
00:41:21,280 --> 00:41:23,279
Speaker 3: it's just like it feels lined up this year for

837
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:26,799
Speaker 3: that Bills Detroit super Bowl, which you know, everyone if

838
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:28,560
Speaker 3: you're if you're, you gotta be sick in the head

839
00:41:28,560 --> 00:41:30,719
Speaker 3: if you you don't want that, right, Like these two

840
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 3: teams that have been through hell with their fan bases,

841
00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:35,239
Speaker 3: it's lined up for them to make it. And this

842
00:41:35,320 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 3: is the start of it. Like Josh, Josh Allen has

843
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:41,799
Speaker 3: struggled win loss record wise in the playoffs, where none

844
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 3: of that, to me, is on him. Like you go

845
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:45,719
Speaker 3: back and you go through all those games. I feel

846
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:47,800
Speaker 3: like Josh Allen always put his team the best position

847
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:50,280
Speaker 3: to win, and it was either the coaching or the defense.

848
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:52,040
Speaker 3: I let him down a lot of those spots. And

849
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 3: the hope, obviously is this year it all comes together

850
00:41:55,040 --> 00:41:56,879
Speaker 3: in the perfect year that he's put together and they

851
00:41:56,880 --> 00:42:00,680
Speaker 3: figured it out. But there it's the same old Bills thing, right.

852
00:42:00,680 --> 00:42:02,360
Speaker 3: They still have the weaknesses on the defenses and I

853
00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:04,520
Speaker 3: still have a little bit of questions about their head coach.

854
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:07,919
Speaker 3: So yeah, like I'll back them here, but I'm already

855
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 3: thinking about next week. Like, I can't wait to really

856
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 3: dive into next week Bill's matchup. So come on, Bills,

857
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 3: gotta win this one. I've a lot invested in this one,

858
00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 3: and for Chad, we got a lot invested in this spread.

859
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:23,399
Speaker 1: The total in this game is forty seven. The luck

860
00:42:23,520 --> 00:42:26,720
Speaker 1: rankings have this game as an under.

861
00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:34,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, what scares me is Josh Allen just going off,

862
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:35,319
Speaker 2: you know.

863
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:38,319
Speaker 3: But even if he goes off, I think like even

864
00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:40,160
Speaker 3: in pros I've talked to, they've been hammering this under

865
00:42:40,200 --> 00:42:42,560
Speaker 3: as well. I have no opinion on this total, but

866
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 3: if you want another professional side, it is the under.

867
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 3: I've seen a lot of books now even before we

868
00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:48,959
Speaker 3: hopped on here moving down to forty six and a half.

869
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 3: So smart money is coming in to me when you

870
00:42:52,040 --> 00:42:53,719
Speaker 3: mix in what it's going to be in Buffalo, how

871
00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 3: cold it will be. This could be the typical game

872
00:42:56,280 --> 00:42:58,680
Speaker 3: Chad where the Bills win forty nothing. I know, it

873
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:01,799
Speaker 3: sounds crazy to even think about, but that's what I

874
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:04,400
Speaker 3: would be scared too, about Josh Allen going crazy. But

875
00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:07,120
Speaker 3: I could see them rolling and then just the Broncos

876
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:09,880
Speaker 3: never getting off the bus. They're just totally outmatched playing

877
00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:11,839
Speaker 3: against it. Probably one of the better teams they've played

878
00:43:11,880 --> 00:43:13,680
Speaker 3: all season and they just kind of fall apart. So

879
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 3: I get where you're coming from. But professionals love the under.

880
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:21,799
Speaker 3: Luck under is something that always jumps out to us.

881
00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 3: We always talk totals with the luck rankings. So if

882
00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:26,839
Speaker 3: you're looking for what smart money is doing right now,

883
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:29,120
Speaker 3: the smart money from people respect right now is on

884
00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:29,560
Speaker 3: the under.

885
00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:33,200
Speaker 1: Green Bay at Philly. Philly is a four and a

886
00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:37,040
Speaker 1: half point favorite right now. Totals forty five and a half.

887
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:41,680
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts practiced on Wednesday. He is expected to play

888
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 1: on Sunday. No surprise. You mentioned that you've watched the

889
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:51,480
Speaker 1: tape from practice. You thought he looked really good. The

890
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:54,520
Speaker 1: line has not moved since he practiced because it was

891
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 1: already priced in telling you right now, based on what

892
00:43:57,719 --> 00:44:02,440
Speaker 1: you said and the fact that we love the Eagles here,

893
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:05,080
Speaker 1: it feels like we're in the foxhole on this one.

894
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 3: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a

895
00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 3: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to

896
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:12,920
Speaker 3: a city. I'm a foxhole guy. All right. I love it.

897
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:13,759
Speaker 3: Let's go.

898
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 1: We are, you know, But like it's just sort of

899
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:20,080
Speaker 1: been hanging at four and a half since we spoke

900
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:22,440
Speaker 1: on Tuesday, the total has moved down for forty seven.

901
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:24,759
Speaker 1: I would expect it to be very slow start by

902
00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:27,440
Speaker 1: both teams, but I just think the Eagles are so

903
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:30,480
Speaker 1: much better than people are even recognizing because this defense

904
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 1: is dominant.

905
00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:35,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I'm definitely trying to thread the needle here

906
00:44:35,719 --> 00:44:40,279
Speaker 3: to take in green Bay first quarter, first half. But

907
00:44:40,360 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 3: to me, that to me feels like the smart play

908
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:44,839
Speaker 3: because of what we talk about, Like these teams kind

909
00:44:44,880 --> 00:44:47,480
Speaker 3: of are what they are, right. Green Bay performers well

910
00:44:47,480 --> 00:44:49,640
Speaker 3: in the first half, They're great on script. The Eagles,

911
00:44:50,840 --> 00:44:53,839
Speaker 3: whatever may be the reason, even before is injured, Jalen

912
00:44:53,880 --> 00:44:56,919
Speaker 3: Hurst just comes out slow. And we've seen that time

913
00:44:56,960 --> 00:44:58,880
Speaker 3: and time again this season that they just do not

914
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 3: perform well. And a lot of three and outs early

915
00:45:01,680 --> 00:45:03,800
Speaker 3: on right until he gets into a rhythm, this offense

916
00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:06,799
Speaker 3: doesn't really move the ball well. But Yeah, for my

917
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:08,840
Speaker 3: biggest bets of this game, it's not even close. Like

918
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 3: I'm heavily investing this Egos team at three and a half,

919
00:45:12,200 --> 00:45:15,280
Speaker 3: at four, at four and a half, still been betting

920
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:17,120
Speaker 3: it even today. I bet it again when I got

921
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:20,080
Speaker 3: up this morning, and you know, I'm just like you

922
00:45:20,160 --> 00:45:23,200
Speaker 3: I'm shocked this numbers on moves off Jalen Hurts practicing,

923
00:45:23,239 --> 00:45:26,040
Speaker 3: which either shows that some really smart money's on the

924
00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:29,080
Speaker 3: other side on Green Bay or the books are waiting

925
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:32,080
Speaker 3: to get the clearance that he is at a concussion protocol.

926
00:45:32,120 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 3: That's what we're all waiting for because we basically have

927
00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:35,839
Speaker 3: to do with that practice like he did yesterday and

928
00:45:35,880 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 3: wake up symptom free today, right, no headaches, no, you know,

929
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:42,440
Speaker 3: not feeling right, no headaches, any of that stuff. So

930
00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:45,759
Speaker 3: you know, as we are on the air right now,

931
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:47,840
Speaker 3: I'm me and Chad, I have not seen a single

932
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:52,000
Speaker 3: thing online, no text, nothing that says otherwise. So we're

933
00:45:52,000 --> 00:45:54,080
Speaker 3: gonna keep going forward. Like jale Hurts is playing this

934
00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 3: game and he is all good, So yeah for me

935
00:45:57,840 --> 00:45:59,640
Speaker 3: matchup wise, I mean, I don't know if you saw

936
00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:02,240
Speaker 3: that base They put out the players all Pro votes

937
00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:06,799
Speaker 3: for the NFL season this season, and basically the way

938
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:10,120
Speaker 3: it works is players can vote for anybody but themselves

939
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:12,560
Speaker 3: and anyone on their team, so you know, you can

940
00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 3: vote everyone obviously in the league. And it jumped out

941
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 3: to me that you know, the number one or I

942
00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:21,120
Speaker 3: guess number two, but he's still All Pro in their mind,

943
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:24,279
Speaker 3: is Jalen Carter at the D line position and the

944
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 3: fact that you know, Zach bron Our linebackers got so

945
00:46:27,560 --> 00:46:31,480
Speaker 3: much respect as well, It's like the Eagles have the defense.

946
00:46:32,120 --> 00:46:33,719
Speaker 3: I think me and Chad and like everyone else are

947
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:35,919
Speaker 3: our biggest question mark right now is is Jalen Hurt's

948
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:37,800
Speaker 3: going to show up in this game? Because I remember

949
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:40,600
Speaker 3: I gave you that stupid stat about Lamar's nember won

950
00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:42,920
Speaker 3: a game when his team is up more than thirteen points.

951
00:46:43,440 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts has never won a playoff game where his

952
00:46:45,160 --> 00:46:47,800
Speaker 3: defense is going up more than seven points, which sounds

953
00:46:47,800 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 3: insane because he made it to the Super Bowl. But

954
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:52,359
Speaker 3: that's how that season kind of broke for them, where

955
00:46:52,400 --> 00:46:55,600
Speaker 3: they they played against teams that you know, the Giants

956
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:57,480
Speaker 3: weren't really that good that year, and then they got

957
00:46:57,520 --> 00:46:59,239
Speaker 3: to play a rock party who they hurt in the

958
00:46:59,280 --> 00:47:01,840
Speaker 3: first quarter, and then you know, the rest is history. Obviously,

959
00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:04,239
Speaker 3: I talked about the time he had the best game

960
00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:06,319
Speaker 3: of his career in that Super Bowl. He was incredible.

961
00:47:07,120 --> 00:47:11,680
Speaker 3: He just ran into my home. So this team feels

962
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:14,480
Speaker 3: like they're still being a little underrated here, and that

963
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:16,560
Speaker 3: if he was fully healthy coming to this game, this

964
00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:21,560
Speaker 3: would be six, because how can we not talk about

965
00:47:21,600 --> 00:47:23,959
Speaker 3: how serious of those injuries were to the Screen Bay team,

966
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:26,120
Speaker 3: Like they lost their number one deep threat receiver and

967
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:29,279
Speaker 3: their number one cornerback, and now they're playing against one

968
00:47:29,280 --> 00:47:30,879
Speaker 3: of the best offensive football and one of the best

969
00:47:30,920 --> 00:47:35,040
Speaker 3: defense in the football. Like, to me, it's it's it's

970
00:47:35,120 --> 00:47:37,839
Speaker 3: maybe I'm not giving up respect to the floor. And

971
00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:39,719
Speaker 3: that's what the pro other pros I've talked to, who

972
00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:41,520
Speaker 3: are giving tons of respect him and just trusting him

973
00:47:41,560 --> 00:47:43,960
Speaker 3: with this number. It's like you get Lafleur as a

974
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:46,080
Speaker 3: big dog like this, a four and a half dog

975
00:47:46,520 --> 00:47:49,759
Speaker 3: against an Eagles team that might be a little overrated

976
00:47:50,000 --> 00:47:52,239
Speaker 3: in the public eye because of all the numbers. We

977
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:54,360
Speaker 3: just talked about the fact that they were such a

978
00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:58,080
Speaker 3: dominant defense and everything like that this regular season. But yeah,

979
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:01,359
Speaker 3: I feel pretty good about this Eagles team. And I

980
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:04,680
Speaker 3: look at this as a rare opportunity that if this

981
00:48:04,840 --> 00:48:06,719
Speaker 3: Eagles team, you can still get them a plus seven

982
00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:09,520
Speaker 3: hundred for Super Bowl. And I think right now the

983
00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:12,160
Speaker 3: lines might be the odds on favorite at plus two

984
00:48:12,239 --> 00:48:15,359
Speaker 3: eighty or plus two ninety. Do we really think there's

985
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 3: that big of a difference between the Egles and the Lions.

986
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:19,839
Speaker 3: I don't. I do think this Eagles team matchup really

987
00:48:19,840 --> 00:48:22,560
Speaker 3: well for them. So it is interesting. The books are

988
00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:24,840
Speaker 3: kind of not showing their hand, but they are a

989
00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 3: little bit they don't. They believe in this Eagles team,

990
00:48:27,040 --> 00:48:29,319
Speaker 3: but not as much as I clearly do. And they're

991
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 3: they're kind of hedging their bets here thinking they're not

992
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:33,160
Speaker 3: gonna be a tea coming out of the East here,

993
00:48:33,239 --> 00:48:35,560
Speaker 3: so or the NFC, I should say, so, yeah, I'm

994
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:37,920
Speaker 3: I'm interested in this game for that just the biggest

995
00:48:37,920 --> 00:48:40,759
Speaker 3: standpoint of how Hurts looks. But it's also a true

996
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:43,600
Speaker 3: test for this defense against the little floor offensive. Mine, like,

997
00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 3: this is the ultimate test for them against the guy

998
00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:49,120
Speaker 3: who you know you're giving him a lot of time

999
00:48:49,160 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 3: to face the defense for the second time around. You

1000
00:48:51,120 --> 00:48:52,600
Speaker 3: expect them that have just kind of figure it out.

1001
00:48:52,680 --> 00:48:55,160
Speaker 3: But you know, to me, this great eight team is

1002
00:48:55,239 --> 00:48:57,560
Speaker 3: underachieved all season. I made that jerk with you, Chad.

1003
00:48:57,880 --> 00:48:59,560
Speaker 3: They won the same amount of divisional games as the

1004
00:48:59,600 --> 00:49:01,759
Speaker 3: Chicago Bears did this season. They went one and five.

1005
00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:04,680
Speaker 3: So this was a team that we joked about being

1006
00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:07,160
Speaker 3: to the all hype team. They lived up to it

1007
00:49:07,239 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 3: even through the Jordan Love injuries and Milik Willis coming

1008
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:12,359
Speaker 3: in like they somehow found a way and they got

1009
00:49:12,400 --> 00:49:15,239
Speaker 3: the raw deal of being, you know, eleven win team

1010
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:18,280
Speaker 3: now being the seventh seeds. So it wouldn't be wouldn't

1011
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 3: be shocked if Green Bay pulls off the upset, but

1012
00:49:20,040 --> 00:49:21,920
Speaker 3: I would be shocked in the sense of this is

1013
00:49:21,920 --> 00:49:24,080
Speaker 3: probably the best Eagles team I've seen in my lifetime,

1014
00:49:24,120 --> 00:49:26,719
Speaker 3: and this would be a huge disappointment getting knocked out

1015
00:49:26,719 --> 00:49:27,719
Speaker 3: at home in Round one.

1016
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 1: Well, look, I do think that the Eagles are being

1017
00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:37,360
Speaker 1: a bit undervalued defensively. So much is made of Jalen Hurts,

1018
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:39,960
Speaker 1: and I think from a public perspective, too much is

1019
00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:43,800
Speaker 1: made of him having been in the concussion protocol and

1020
00:49:43,960 --> 00:49:48,560
Speaker 1: being out, and not enough is made of just how

1021
00:49:48,640 --> 00:49:51,920
Speaker 1: dominant this defense is. I watched a lot of freaking

1022
00:49:51,960 --> 00:49:56,360
Speaker 1: Eagles games this year. I know you did too. You

1023
00:49:56,440 --> 00:49:58,560
Speaker 1: just wouldn't want to be playing this team. I agree

1024
00:49:58,600 --> 00:50:00,319
Speaker 1: with you about the Lions, like I would not want

1025
00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:03,279
Speaker 1: to have to face the Eagles, who are so good

1026
00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:06,200
Speaker 1: against the run, which is what the Lions need to

1027
00:50:06,200 --> 00:50:08,680
Speaker 1: be great at to get their offense going. Just looking ahead,

1028
00:50:09,000 --> 00:50:14,319
Speaker 1: handicapping of potential NFC title game. Lafleur is the X

1029
00:50:14,360 --> 00:50:17,320
Speaker 1: factor here, you know, like we've talked about it. We

1030
00:50:17,360 --> 00:50:20,880
Speaker 1: don't like to bet against Lafleoor. So I understand the

1031
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:24,560
Speaker 1: four and a half. The betting on the Packers at

1032
00:50:24,600 --> 00:50:28,839
Speaker 1: plus three in the first half is another bet that

1033
00:50:29,360 --> 00:50:32,000
Speaker 1: a lot of people have been talking about, also taking

1034
00:50:32,040 --> 00:50:34,800
Speaker 1: the under in the first half. The Eagles have generally

1035
00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:36,879
Speaker 1: been a bad team in the first half, especially bad

1036
00:50:36,880 --> 00:50:40,440
Speaker 1: in the first quarter. The opportunity for the Packers, because

1037
00:50:40,480 --> 00:50:43,360
Speaker 1: they will have been game planning those first fifteen in scripting,

1038
00:50:44,000 --> 00:50:47,120
Speaker 1: is better for them first quarter, first half than it

1039
00:50:47,160 --> 00:50:50,560
Speaker 1: is over the extended game. So that's getting a lot

1040
00:50:50,600 --> 00:50:53,160
Speaker 1: of attention right now. Betting the Packers at plus three,

1041
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:56,680
Speaker 1: So I understand that one in entirely. That is our

1042
00:50:57,480 --> 00:51:05,760
Speaker 1: fox hole, which brings us to Simon our Big Balls bet.

1043
00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:06,400
Speaker 2: Of the Week.

1044
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:12,320
Speaker 1: Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy

1045
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:15,320
Speaker 1: John has the support. Great games start with great underwear,

1046
00:51:15,320 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 1: and Tommy John makes the greatest the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1047
00:51:20,840 --> 00:51:25,759
Speaker 1: three point favorites over the Washington Commanders. The total is

1048
00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:28,800
Speaker 1: fifty to fifty and a half, highest total of the weekend.

1049
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:32,040
Speaker 1: You know, it's a game featuring two average to downright

1050
00:51:32,120 --> 00:51:36,360
Speaker 1: bad defenses with two explosive quarterbacks who are not immune

1051
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:41,640
Speaker 1: to turnovers. Yet we're going with the veteran game playing quarterback,

1052
00:51:42,160 --> 00:51:46,319
Speaker 1: playmaking quarterback over the rookie playmaking quarterback. I think because

1053
00:51:46,360 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 1: we think the Bucks are undervalued in this spot versus

1054
00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:55,960
Speaker 1: an overhype team with a dynamic, dynamic playmaker and Jayden Daniels.

1055
00:51:56,760 --> 00:51:59,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I get why the early money and some

1056
00:51:59,160 --> 00:52:01,920
Speaker 3: professional on the over ide do personally like Dender, but

1057
00:52:02,400 --> 00:52:05,040
Speaker 3: it's simply because it is over fifty. It feels way too,

1058
00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:06,719
Speaker 3: way too high for a playoff game. I know the

1059
00:52:06,760 --> 00:52:08,520
Speaker 3: first time they played it was what thirty seven to

1060
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:12,600
Speaker 3: twenty uh Tampa. So I get the perspective of you

1061
00:52:12,640 --> 00:52:14,719
Speaker 3: know this, I feel like people think it's gonna be

1062
00:52:14,719 --> 00:52:18,600
Speaker 3: a shootout, But from my mindset, it's like the Bucks

1063
00:52:18,600 --> 00:52:20,520
Speaker 3: can't have this be a shootout. They need to have

1064
00:52:20,640 --> 00:52:22,520
Speaker 3: a big, Bucky Irving game. They need to lean on

1065
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:25,120
Speaker 3: their run, keep keep the limited snaps out of Jane

1066
00:52:25,160 --> 00:52:27,160
Speaker 3: Daniel's hands, because that's how he gets you like. He

1067
00:52:27,360 --> 00:52:29,920
Speaker 3: is the kind of guy that he is, you know,

1068
00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:31,799
Speaker 3: one of the more dangerous guys of the balls in

1069
00:52:31,800 --> 00:52:33,360
Speaker 3: his hand, and the more opportunities you give him to

1070
00:52:33,400 --> 00:52:35,560
Speaker 3: be on the field, he's gonna get you, especially this,

1071
00:52:35,680 --> 00:52:38,080
Speaker 3: like you just said, this Bucks defense. You know, top

1072
00:52:38,080 --> 00:52:39,520
Speaker 3: bulls can do a lot of scheme and kind of

1073
00:52:39,520 --> 00:52:41,719
Speaker 3: give him unique looks that he might not be ready for.

1074
00:52:41,840 --> 00:52:44,439
Speaker 3: But eventually he'll get you, especially if he can wear

1075
00:52:44,480 --> 00:52:47,959
Speaker 3: your defense out, not only with his legs but using

1076
00:52:47,960 --> 00:52:51,760
Speaker 3: his offensive weapons. So interesting that this is so high.

1077
00:52:51,960 --> 00:52:55,520
Speaker 3: You know, it's rare you see a fifty, especially when

1078
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:57,040
Speaker 3: it's not you know, a little more of us Josh

1079
00:52:57,080 --> 00:53:00,400
Speaker 3: Allen game, Like that makes more sense, not a Danel

1080
00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:04,120
Speaker 3: Jenden Daniels versus Baker game. But that's how great these

1081
00:53:04,120 --> 00:53:05,959
Speaker 3: two offense have been this season, and what you just said,

1082
00:53:06,080 --> 00:53:08,680
Speaker 3: how average both these defenses have been. But you know,

1083
00:53:09,640 --> 00:53:12,560
Speaker 3: I look at this Bucks team, and as the weeks

1084
00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:14,239
Speaker 3: went along, I just love it more and more, just

1085
00:53:14,280 --> 00:53:17,360
Speaker 3: because I am in the sports books. I am talking

1086
00:53:17,360 --> 00:53:19,600
Speaker 3: to Joe Public in the line, we're will waiting to

1087
00:53:19,600 --> 00:53:22,160
Speaker 3: cash our tickets for make bets, And it is insane

1088
00:53:22,239 --> 00:53:25,400
Speaker 3: how much love and respect guys have for Jane Daniels

1089
00:53:25,640 --> 00:53:28,440
Speaker 3: and this commander's team, and they just want to bet them, right,

1090
00:53:28,480 --> 00:53:31,120
Speaker 3: that's the fun, sexy side it feels like, and this

1091
00:53:31,239 --> 00:53:34,319
Speaker 3: Baker's side feels like, you know, this ugly, you know,

1092
00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:36,000
Speaker 3: no one wants to better type of team that just

1093
00:53:36,040 --> 00:53:38,600
Speaker 3: linked into the playoffs. And you know, just like Chad,

1094
00:53:38,640 --> 00:53:40,480
Speaker 3: a lot of people don't respect the NFC South. I

1095
00:53:40,520 --> 00:53:42,560
Speaker 3: think that's a division that not I.

1096
00:53:42,560 --> 00:53:44,919
Speaker 1: Don't know why you would say that. I've never done

1097
00:53:44,920 --> 00:53:49,200
Speaker 1: anything but love and support the NFC South. Great franchises,

1098
00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:52,520
Speaker 1: a lot of memories, great moments in NFL history. People

1099
00:53:52,560 --> 00:53:55,040
Speaker 1: really rally around those brands.

1100
00:53:56,840 --> 00:53:58,759
Speaker 3: But it makes even more sick when you think about,

1101
00:53:59,640 --> 00:54:02,359
Speaker 3: you know, poor Matt and Mitchell and these Lions fans.

1102
00:54:02,360 --> 00:54:05,239
Speaker 3: They've been around forever, and Tampa's here, you know what,

1103
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:07,480
Speaker 3: a couple of weeks and they already got two super Bowls.

1104
00:54:07,880 --> 00:54:12,399
Speaker 3: That's the way it goes. Uh yeah, it's I'm looking

1105
00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:13,920
Speaker 3: at it right now and I just can't get over

1106
00:54:13,960 --> 00:54:17,399
Speaker 3: the fact that we're getting Baker and this veteran team.

1107
00:54:17,400 --> 00:54:19,920
Speaker 3: It's still at minus three against this Commanders. It does

1108
00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:21,840
Speaker 3: feel like, I know, we love this Chargers number, and

1109
00:54:21,880 --> 00:54:23,439
Speaker 3: I do love it, especially at two and a half,

1110
00:54:23,880 --> 00:54:26,759
Speaker 3: but I really really love this this Bucks team, like

1111
00:54:26,840 --> 00:54:29,720
Speaker 3: this right now, Ore, then this Pittsburgh line are probably

1112
00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:31,640
Speaker 3: is probably gonna be my biggest bet this week. Like

1113
00:54:31,719 --> 00:54:35,640
Speaker 3: I've pretty much all day every day, I've been finding

1114
00:54:35,640 --> 00:54:37,600
Speaker 3: different books to get some money down on this on

1115
00:54:37,640 --> 00:54:40,839
Speaker 3: this Bucks line, and for the most part, I haven't

1116
00:54:40,880 --> 00:54:44,319
Speaker 3: been turned away too much from bookmakers because it's been

1117
00:54:44,360 --> 00:54:47,280
Speaker 3: pretty heavy Commanders money. Like this is basically the public's

1118
00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:50,400
Speaker 3: favorite dog this week, which you know isn't shocking, right.

1119
00:54:50,440 --> 00:54:52,799
Speaker 3: They're a fun, exciting team. Geno Dan's is really fun.

1120
00:54:52,880 --> 00:54:55,839
Speaker 3: So I get where they're coming from. And the fact

1121
00:54:55,920 --> 00:54:58,759
Speaker 3: that you know this this could be a coin flip game, right,

1122
00:54:58,800 --> 00:55:02,000
Speaker 3: We'll know once it starts. But my view of it

1123
00:55:02,120 --> 00:55:04,040
Speaker 3: is just a rare opportunity to take on a veteran

1124
00:55:04,120 --> 00:55:07,400
Speaker 3: coach with a veteran quarterback who have had playoff success together.

1125
00:55:07,600 --> 00:55:10,279
Speaker 3: You know, just last year they rolled that Eagles team

1126
00:55:10,320 --> 00:55:12,640
Speaker 3: like they know how to play in these exact situations,

1127
00:55:13,040 --> 00:55:16,319
Speaker 3: Zack Scenaios. So yeah, let me fade this over hyped

1128
00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:19,320
Speaker 3: Commanders team and take this Bucks team at minus three.

1129
00:55:19,760 --> 00:55:22,279
Speaker 1: You know, I reviewed the show from Tuesday a little bit,

1130
00:55:22,800 --> 00:55:29,000
Speaker 1: and I think it sort of went over my head

1131
00:55:29,719 --> 00:55:34,839
Speaker 1: in the moment. How much you loved the Bucks and

1132
00:55:34,920 --> 00:55:39,799
Speaker 1: now you're being so clear about it, like it is

1133
00:55:39,840 --> 00:55:43,200
Speaker 1: a very good matchup, and the Bucks loved to blitz.

1134
00:55:43,320 --> 00:55:48,520
Speaker 1: Jaden Daniels not nearly as effective against the blitz. The

1135
00:55:48,640 --> 00:55:51,439
Speaker 1: total at fifty and a half, I like the under two.

1136
00:55:51,880 --> 00:55:52,560
Speaker 2: One of the main.

1137
00:55:52,440 --> 00:55:56,200
Speaker 1: Reasons I like it is because Baker, obviously we know,

1138
00:55:56,520 --> 00:55:58,960
Speaker 1: is a turnover machine. He's you know, he's going to

1139
00:55:58,960 --> 00:56:02,000
Speaker 1: throw an interception at some point. But Jaydon also like

1140
00:56:02,600 --> 00:56:05,960
Speaker 1: a few more fumbles than you'd like, only through nine picks,

1141
00:56:06,400 --> 00:56:08,440
Speaker 1: seven picks in the last seven weeks of the season,

1142
00:56:08,480 --> 00:56:11,480
Speaker 1: so like he was so accurate and picked free in

1143
00:56:11,520 --> 00:56:13,759
Speaker 1: the first half of the year, but started to show

1144
00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:15,680
Speaker 1: a little bit at the end of the year. And

1145
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 1: those turnovers are just drive killers, right, and like a

1146
00:56:20,160 --> 00:56:23,279
Speaker 1: lot of times they are happening in the opponent's half

1147
00:56:23,320 --> 00:56:25,680
Speaker 1: of the field, So then all of a sudden, instead

1148
00:56:25,680 --> 00:56:28,560
Speaker 1: of getting that touchdown or field goal, the other team

1149
00:56:28,640 --> 00:56:30,239
Speaker 1: is getting the ball and they're going on a long

1150
00:56:30,360 --> 00:56:34,000
Speaker 1: drive eat something more clock no points out of the

1151
00:56:34,120 --> 00:56:37,239
Speaker 1: drive that was headed into good direction. So I don't

1152
00:56:37,280 --> 00:56:39,400
Speaker 1: mind the under here at all either. At fifty and

1153
00:56:39,400 --> 00:56:42,359
Speaker 1: a half especially feels extraordinarily high.

1154
00:56:42,440 --> 00:56:45,200
Speaker 3: And we've seen it though that like even the Cowboys

1155
00:56:45,239 --> 00:56:47,560
Speaker 3: you can say is not that good of a run team.

1156
00:56:48,160 --> 00:56:50,640
Speaker 3: They were pretty much running it down this Commander's team

1157
00:56:50,680 --> 00:56:53,439
Speaker 3: throw and you know b Jon Robinson just a week

1158
00:56:53,480 --> 00:56:56,160
Speaker 3: before that having his way, Saquon having his way. So

1159
00:56:56,719 --> 00:56:59,040
Speaker 3: you know, I know Bucky Irving is not putting the

1160
00:56:59,040 --> 00:57:01,839
Speaker 3: same sentence as those other guys, for I get it.

1161
00:57:02,040 --> 00:57:03,759
Speaker 3: You know, he's the kind of new to the league

1162
00:57:03,760 --> 00:57:05,279
Speaker 3: and he's not that type of talent. But if you

1163
00:57:05,320 --> 00:57:07,160
Speaker 3: really break down the numbers and look at what Bucky's

1164
00:57:07,200 --> 00:57:09,560
Speaker 3: done this season, he is a top ten running back

1165
00:57:09,560 --> 00:57:11,879
Speaker 3: in my opinion. Like, this guy is a workhorse, and

1166
00:57:12,440 --> 00:57:13,960
Speaker 3: that to me is going to be the game plan

1167
00:57:14,120 --> 00:57:16,360
Speaker 3: for the Bucks. Like for everything I read from their

1168
00:57:16,360 --> 00:57:18,600
Speaker 3: beat writers, and you know, I wish I had sourced

1169
00:57:18,640 --> 00:57:21,000
Speaker 3: the inside I unfortunately don't. I don't really have any

1170
00:57:21,000 --> 00:57:24,120
Speaker 3: connections down there in Tampa. But it feels like the

1171
00:57:24,120 --> 00:57:26,040
Speaker 3: way guys are talking about it's going into it be

1172
00:57:26,120 --> 00:57:28,080
Speaker 3: a heavy Bucky Irving game and they're gonna lean on

1173
00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:30,400
Speaker 3: that run, just keeping the ball out Jane Daniel's hands.

1174
00:57:30,400 --> 00:57:32,360
Speaker 3: So and what you just talked about, they need to

1175
00:57:32,400 --> 00:57:35,600
Speaker 3: protect Baker from himself sometimes right, Like Baker can't help

1176
00:57:35,640 --> 00:57:37,840
Speaker 3: himself with turnover. You just can't have those stupid turnovers

1177
00:57:37,840 --> 00:57:39,520
Speaker 3: in the playoffs, like that's going to cost you. So

1178
00:57:40,280 --> 00:57:42,160
Speaker 3: that's another reason why I like this under so much

1179
00:57:42,280 --> 00:57:44,080
Speaker 3: is it just feels like it's going to be a

1180
00:57:44,240 --> 00:57:46,400
Speaker 3: run heavy game from this Bucks team.

1181
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:47,120
Speaker 2: Simon.

1182
00:57:47,200 --> 00:57:50,640
Speaker 1: Here at the Favorites, we know that feedback is a gift,

1183
00:57:50,840 --> 00:57:53,840
Speaker 1: and we're getting loads of feedback about my Tommy John reads.

1184
00:57:54,000 --> 00:57:58,280
Speaker 1: Our listeners keep hearing me talk about my downstairs, talking

1185
00:57:58,320 --> 00:58:03,040
Speaker 1: about my lowers. The reactions are mixed, that is the

1186
00:58:03,080 --> 00:58:06,360
Speaker 1: one thing about feedback, but one thing they all agree on.

1187
00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:12,720
Speaker 1: I'm very comfortable. Some might agree too comfortable, But that's

1188
00:58:12,720 --> 00:58:16,400
Speaker 1: what happens when you're decked out in Tommy John.

1189
00:58:16,520 --> 00:58:17,400
Speaker 2: You unlock a.

1190
00:58:17,440 --> 00:58:21,800
Speaker 1: Level of comfort so overpowering you can barely control what

1191
00:58:21,840 --> 00:58:25,120
Speaker 1: you say into a microphone. And with a special sale

1192
00:58:25,200 --> 00:58:30,840
Speaker 1: for our listeners, you too can achieve this level of comfort.

1193
00:58:31,400 --> 00:58:33,920
Speaker 1: And with thousands of five star reviews, you don't need

1194
00:58:33,960 --> 00:58:37,040
Speaker 1: to take my word for it, Simon, why will you

1195
00:58:37,680 --> 00:58:40,720
Speaker 1: be wearing more Tommy John in twenty twenty five?

1196
00:58:41,520 --> 00:58:43,760
Speaker 3: Because comfort is king, that's.

1197
00:58:43,600 --> 00:58:46,640
Speaker 1: Right, and right now you can shop Tommy john dot

1198
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1200
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Speaker 1: com slash Favorites. That's Tommy john dot com slash Favorites.

1201
00:58:58,800 --> 00:59:03,240
Speaker 1: Last game on the board Minnesota visiting the La Rams.

1202
00:59:03,240 --> 00:59:04,760
Speaker 2: The line has moved from two and a half to

1203
00:59:04,800 --> 00:59:05,560
Speaker 2: one and a half.

1204
00:59:05,880 --> 00:59:09,120
Speaker 1: It finally buzzed a little bit last night early this morning.

1205
00:59:09,760 --> 00:59:12,760
Speaker 1: Wise Guy's definitely coming in on the Rams. The number

1206
00:59:12,840 --> 00:59:15,800
Speaker 1: is down to one, it's down to half in some places.

1207
00:59:15,800 --> 00:59:19,440
Speaker 1: Total is forty eight. I think at the end of

1208
00:59:19,480 --> 00:59:22,600
Speaker 1: the day, we don't like to bet against Matthew Stafford.

1209
00:59:22,640 --> 00:59:24,280
Speaker 1: We're getting him at a dog at Home as a

1210
00:59:24,320 --> 00:59:24,880
Speaker 1: dog at home.

1211
00:59:26,680 --> 00:59:28,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's another game that I've I've taken the

1212
00:59:29,000 --> 00:59:31,160
Speaker 3: under on. It's it's all about what my mindset is,

1213
00:59:31,280 --> 00:59:34,479
Speaker 3: my gamescript mine of this fills that type of game

1214
00:59:34,480 --> 00:59:38,560
Speaker 3: that is going to be run heavy for this Rams team,

1215
00:59:38,600 --> 00:59:40,120
Speaker 3: and we've kind of seen it now with this blind

1216
00:59:40,160 --> 00:59:43,040
Speaker 3: Foy's defense. That's how you can attack them, like you

1217
00:59:43,120 --> 00:59:45,160
Speaker 3: really can attack them through the run because the way

1218
00:59:45,160 --> 00:59:48,600
Speaker 3: he kind of plays their style of defense. And you know,

1219
00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:51,360
Speaker 3: we joked about it like Williams is one of the

1220
00:59:51,360 --> 00:59:53,240
Speaker 3: best running backs in football, especially when you get down

1221
00:59:53,240 --> 00:59:55,240
Speaker 3: in the red zone. The guys are scoring machine. And

1222
00:59:55,800 --> 00:59:58,880
Speaker 3: Stafford to me, since that, you know, Lions game or

1223
00:59:58,960 --> 01:00:00,520
Speaker 3: was it Bills, I always keep next it up. I

1224
01:00:00,560 --> 01:00:03,560
Speaker 3: believe it was the Bills that they beat. He put

1225
01:00:03,640 --> 01:00:05,720
Speaker 3: up whatever it was, forty four or forty two points

1226
01:00:05,760 --> 01:00:08,480
Speaker 3: against that team. Since then, the offense has not been

1227
01:00:08,480 --> 01:00:10,440
Speaker 3: the same, right, They've been struggling. They've just kind of

1228
01:00:10,480 --> 01:00:13,320
Speaker 3: been a different team. I can't lie to you, Chad.

1229
01:00:13,360 --> 01:00:14,920
Speaker 3: I don't know what I'm gonna get here from Stafford,

1230
01:00:15,160 --> 01:00:17,880
Speaker 3: Like it's it's been different. Maybe he is. He's got

1231
01:00:17,880 --> 01:00:21,200
Speaker 3: a major injury I don't know about, and maybe that

1232
01:00:21,320 --> 01:00:24,480
Speaker 3: week off really helped that injury, and he'll bounce back

1233
01:00:24,480 --> 01:00:27,440
Speaker 3: and this is the perfect situation for him. Pooka and

1234
01:00:27,480 --> 01:00:29,640
Speaker 3: Cooper cup like, this is a great matchup for them

1235
01:00:29,920 --> 01:00:34,080
Speaker 3: against the secondary of the Minnesota Vikings. But I think

1236
01:00:34,080 --> 01:00:38,280
Speaker 3: it comes back to that evanstat right about quarterbacks making

1237
01:00:38,320 --> 01:00:41,720
Speaker 3: their first start, Like this is Sam Darnold's first start,

1238
01:00:41,880 --> 01:00:44,720
Speaker 3: and we saw last week in a game where he

1239
01:00:44,840 --> 01:00:46,720
Speaker 3: had the weight of the world, the future of his

1240
01:00:46,840 --> 01:00:49,240
Speaker 3: career on him. He crumbled. He did. He melted in

1241
01:00:49,280 --> 01:00:51,000
Speaker 3: that game. Even when I went back and watched it.

1242
01:00:52,160 --> 01:00:55,080
Speaker 3: He missed so many opportunities and so many throws that

1243
01:00:55,520 --> 01:00:57,640
Speaker 3: he's just been nailing all season. Like we talked about it,

1244
01:00:57,680 --> 01:01:01,080
Speaker 3: he's had one of the best seasons you know, ever

1245
01:01:01,080 --> 01:01:03,720
Speaker 3: put together by a Vikings quarterback. Like he really was

1246
01:01:04,160 --> 01:01:07,400
Speaker 3: the perfect general for that offense. And you know, Koc

1247
01:01:07,520 --> 01:01:10,280
Speaker 3: had ultimate confidence in him. Like the place you draw up,

1248
01:01:10,920 --> 01:01:13,640
Speaker 3: it was like, Okay, you got to take this hit here,

1249
01:01:13,880 --> 01:01:15,840
Speaker 3: but you're going to get a touchdown or free release

1250
01:01:15,920 --> 01:01:17,480
Speaker 3: all one of your receivers here. Like if you can

1251
01:01:17,520 --> 01:01:20,200
Speaker 3: just hang in the pocket, let the route develop, it's

1252
01:01:20,240 --> 01:01:22,240
Speaker 3: going to be there. He just was not hitting that

1253
01:01:22,320 --> 01:01:24,240
Speaker 3: last week, and you saw that he got flustered right

1254
01:01:24,280 --> 01:01:25,720
Speaker 3: after you got a couple of hits to the mouth.

1255
01:01:26,640 --> 01:01:28,000
Speaker 3: Isn't that what the Rams are going to do here?

1256
01:01:28,040 --> 01:01:29,560
Speaker 3: Aren't they just going to bring a ton of pressure

1257
01:01:29,560 --> 01:01:31,880
Speaker 3: and be like, Okay, it worked last week. Let's see

1258
01:01:31,880 --> 01:01:33,920
Speaker 3: if he figured it out in a week or if

1259
01:01:33,960 --> 01:01:35,880
Speaker 3: this is what he is, if he is going to

1260
01:01:35,920 --> 01:01:37,440
Speaker 3: struggle against it. Because early in the year he was

1261
01:01:37,440 --> 01:01:40,680
Speaker 3: great against the Blitz and it was alarm and see

1262
01:01:40,720 --> 01:01:43,160
Speaker 3: how bad he was last week. So yeah, this is

1263
01:01:43,160 --> 01:01:44,760
Speaker 3: a game where it me and you could get burned. Chad.

1264
01:01:44,880 --> 01:01:47,920
Speaker 3: We could be overreacting to last week and saym Darnold

1265
01:01:47,920 --> 01:01:51,320
Speaker 3: a struggles and underreacting to Matthew Stafford in this Rams

1266
01:01:51,360 --> 01:01:53,120
Speaker 3: team down the stretcher that they have not been the

1267
01:01:53,120 --> 01:01:56,640
Speaker 3: same offense. But to me, this is really about trusting

1268
01:01:56,640 --> 01:01:59,120
Speaker 3: the numbers and the trends that everything points to this

1269
01:01:59,240 --> 01:02:01,840
Speaker 3: Rams team and you're still getting great value as them

1270
01:02:01,880 --> 01:02:03,800
Speaker 3: as a dog, like I have him as over a

1271
01:02:03,880 --> 01:02:06,280
Speaker 3: one point favorite. We're still getting plus one and a

1272
01:02:06,320 --> 01:02:07,960
Speaker 3: half at a couple of books out there, and I knows

1273
01:02:08,000 --> 01:02:10,760
Speaker 3: it sounds like a big deal, but every point matters

1274
01:02:10,760 --> 01:02:12,919
Speaker 3: in the playoffs. It is a big deal. So yeah,

1275
01:02:13,000 --> 01:02:14,439
Speaker 3: to me at plus one and a half, I still

1276
01:02:14,480 --> 01:02:16,680
Speaker 3: love the value on this Rams team, and yeah, I'm

1277
01:02:16,720 --> 01:02:18,280
Speaker 3: gonna be betting them in the under here.

1278
01:02:18,800 --> 01:02:25,400
Speaker 1: So this is a luck over a lot of expected regression.

1279
01:02:26,000 --> 01:02:31,200
Speaker 1: Two more scoring for total teams. Who obviously we saw

1280
01:02:31,240 --> 01:02:34,600
Speaker 1: the Vikings not score very much in Week eighteen against

1281
01:02:34,640 --> 01:02:38,200
Speaker 1: the Lions, and the Rams have been scoring less and

1282
01:02:38,320 --> 01:02:41,720
Speaker 1: less since that game against the Bills. So Doctor Nick

1283
01:02:41,720 --> 01:02:46,160
Speaker 1: and crew like this as a luck over Simon. You're fading,

1284
01:02:46,200 --> 01:02:47,680
Speaker 1: Doctor Nick. How does that make you feel?

1285
01:02:48,920 --> 01:02:50,680
Speaker 3: It's not good? Maybe I'll do the cheat that doctor

1286
01:02:50,760 --> 01:02:52,920
Speaker 3: Nick does. I'll just do the first half. I'll go

1287
01:02:53,040 --> 01:02:54,120
Speaker 3: first half over.

1288
01:02:55,480 --> 01:02:55,920
Speaker 2: Coward.

1289
01:02:56,960 --> 01:02:59,240
Speaker 3: Yeah right, all right.

1290
01:02:59,400 --> 01:03:01,560
Speaker 1: So the Rams, for some reason, are the game that

1291
01:03:01,600 --> 01:03:08,080
Speaker 1: I feel the least confident about, as I like the number,

1292
01:03:08,120 --> 01:03:10,240
Speaker 1: I like them much more as a dog than a favorite.

1293
01:03:10,840 --> 01:03:12,919
Speaker 1: But essentially, if you're betting them at one and a half,

1294
01:03:13,040 --> 01:03:15,720
Speaker 1: you're you're saying you expect them to win the game.

1295
01:03:16,440 --> 01:03:17,080
Speaker 2: And I do.

1296
01:03:17,720 --> 01:03:20,720
Speaker 1: But I still look at this and like, of all these,

1297
01:03:21,960 --> 01:03:25,520
Speaker 1: I feel best about I think the Bucks and the Chargers,

1298
01:03:25,520 --> 01:03:28,880
Speaker 1: and worst about.

1299
01:03:29,520 --> 01:03:30,520
Speaker 2: The Rams and the Bills.

1300
01:03:31,600 --> 01:03:33,200
Speaker 3: It's fair And I told you though, if you're feeling

1301
01:03:33,200 --> 01:03:36,040
Speaker 3: a little cowardly, throw them a teaser. Brother, getting the

1302
01:03:36,120 --> 01:03:36,480
Speaker 3: Rams with.

1303
01:03:36,800 --> 01:03:38,760
Speaker 1: The way Rams and Bills are a perfect teaser. So

1304
01:03:38,800 --> 01:03:41,680
Speaker 1: if that's what I'm feeling, that, that's what I'm gonna do.

1305
01:03:42,120 --> 01:03:43,760
Speaker 1: That's what I That's what I'm gonna do.

1306
01:03:43,960 --> 01:03:44,280
Speaker 3: All right.

1307
01:03:44,320 --> 01:03:47,439
Speaker 1: Each week we give out a two team money line

1308
01:03:47,600 --> 01:03:50,600
Speaker 1: dog parlay. This week it's a little bit different just

1309
01:03:50,600 --> 01:03:53,760
Speaker 1: because there's fewer dog options to really consider that three

1310
01:03:53,800 --> 01:03:55,760
Speaker 1: six five is going to boost the odds and highlight

1311
01:03:56,320 --> 01:03:59,600
Speaker 1: this money line parlay to their site all week and

1312
01:04:00,120 --> 01:04:03,440
Speaker 1: under both promo pages. Remember, both games are eligible for

1313
01:04:03,480 --> 01:04:05,960
Speaker 1: bet three six fives early pay out promo, where your

1314
01:04:06,000 --> 01:04:09,000
Speaker 1: money line pick gets marked as a win if either

1315
01:04:09,080 --> 01:04:11,720
Speaker 1: team takes a seventeen point lead, even if they are

1316
01:04:11,800 --> 01:04:12,920
Speaker 1: loose and they up losing.

1317
01:04:13,320 --> 01:04:13,880
Speaker 2: If you want to.

1318
01:04:13,800 --> 01:04:16,400
Speaker 1: Bet this better at bet three six five, this week's

1319
01:04:16,480 --> 01:04:20,160
Speaker 1: boosted probabay is going to be the Rams and the Bucks.

1320
01:04:20,640 --> 01:04:23,439
Speaker 1: Find the boost under either the Rams or Bucks game

1321
01:04:23,480 --> 01:04:26,640
Speaker 1: pages on bet three six five. I don't know if

1322
01:04:26,640 --> 01:04:31,200
Speaker 1: we can do a money line underdog round robin, Like,

1323
01:04:31,720 --> 01:04:38,440
Speaker 1: what are you gonna do? Seilers, Rams, Commanders, Texans, Broncos,

1324
01:04:38,560 --> 01:04:41,240
Speaker 1: Like No, it's definitely definitely the week you do the favorites.

1325
01:04:41,280 --> 01:04:43,360
Speaker 3: I've had a couple of fans reach out that thing

1326
01:04:43,440 --> 01:04:45,040
Speaker 3: that they've been saying, like, you know, since week ten

1327
01:04:45,040 --> 01:04:46,880
Speaker 3: and eleven, they've just been going the other way because

1328
01:04:46,880 --> 01:04:49,120
Speaker 3: our money a line on the Robins obviously have been

1329
01:04:49,120 --> 01:04:51,600
Speaker 3: dead on arrival. Dogs have just not been winning out right,

1330
01:04:52,120 --> 01:04:53,960
Speaker 3: So I mean, if you want to go the other way, chat,

1331
01:04:53,960 --> 01:04:55,400
Speaker 3: it's a fun week to do the favorite It's like

1332
01:04:55,440 --> 01:04:58,080
Speaker 3: you take the Eagles money line, take the Bucks money line,

1333
01:04:58,240 --> 01:05:01,040
Speaker 3: take the Rams in there, charge Like, if you want

1334
01:05:01,040 --> 01:05:03,920
Speaker 3: to stay away from the high ones like the Ravens

1335
01:05:03,920 --> 01:05:06,640
Speaker 3: and the Bills, I still feel pretty good about those

1336
01:05:06,640 --> 01:05:10,040
Speaker 3: ones who just gave out. Obviously. You know, we only

1337
01:05:10,080 --> 01:05:12,600
Speaker 3: love one road team early this week, and that's the Chargers.

1338
01:05:12,600 --> 01:05:15,880
Speaker 3: But this week actually tends to be pretty good for

1339
01:05:15,920 --> 01:05:17,600
Speaker 3: the Dogs, right historically. I don't know if Evan has

1340
01:05:17,600 --> 01:05:20,480
Speaker 3: the numbers on it, but it feels like normally dogs

1341
01:05:20,560 --> 01:05:23,480
Speaker 3: do cover on Wildcard weekend, like this is usually a

1342
01:05:23,520 --> 01:05:26,240
Speaker 3: good weekend for them, so money line is not so much.

1343
01:05:26,360 --> 01:05:28,400
Speaker 3: But if you are just throwing them into a round

1344
01:05:28,440 --> 01:05:30,400
Speaker 3: robin and taking the number, that's fine too.

1345
01:05:31,400 --> 01:05:33,840
Speaker 1: Well, then I'm really thrilled that I'm going all in

1346
01:05:33,960 --> 01:05:36,920
Speaker 1: on the Chargers and the Bucks and the Bills.

1347
01:05:37,480 --> 01:05:39,120
Speaker 2: Super excited about that.

1348
01:05:39,200 --> 01:05:41,200
Speaker 1: And when we bring Evan on, he's going to make

1349
01:05:41,280 --> 01:05:44,920
Speaker 1: me feel even worse. What are your biggest bets right now?

1350
01:05:45,240 --> 01:05:46,080
Speaker 1: Bucks and Steelers?

1351
01:05:46,760 --> 01:05:52,440
Speaker 3: Bucks and Steelers, definitely, and then obviously teasers. I just

1352
01:05:52,480 --> 01:05:55,240
Speaker 3: been doing a ton of teasers. Rams. I told you

1353
01:05:55,320 --> 01:05:57,080
Speaker 3: when the Chargers got down to two and a half,

1354
01:05:57,240 --> 01:06:01,160
Speaker 3: I fucked the loong. I went through the zero, took

1355
01:06:01,200 --> 01:06:02,720
Speaker 3: the charge off the plus three and a half, and

1356
01:06:03,280 --> 01:06:05,080
Speaker 3: uh yeah, Bills down at two and a half. It

1357
01:06:05,120 --> 01:06:07,240
Speaker 3: just feels like that's a gift. So yeah, those those

1358
01:06:07,280 --> 01:06:09,360
Speaker 3: are definitely my biggest bets right now, just straight bets

1359
01:06:09,640 --> 01:06:11,880
Speaker 3: Tampa and Pittsburgh on their numbers.

1360
01:06:13,320 --> 01:06:16,400
Speaker 2: When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief.

1361
01:06:18,120 --> 01:06:20,640
Speaker 4: Let's play scooch Roulette.

1362
01:06:23,000 --> 01:06:27,040
Speaker 1: Who should we go with? For scooch Roulette into the playoffs?

1363
01:06:27,480 --> 01:06:29,320
Speaker 1: You get the first choice since you were the season

1364
01:06:29,320 --> 01:06:29,840
Speaker 1: long winner.

1365
01:06:31,360 --> 01:06:36,400
Speaker 3: Thanks, got it. I love I love them all. I

1366
01:06:36,440 --> 01:06:40,320
Speaker 3: guess I will go with I gotta do it. I

1367
01:06:40,360 --> 01:06:42,800
Speaker 3: gotta go with my boy Baker. I'll take Baker, myse

1368
01:06:43,920 --> 01:06:44,560
Speaker 3: I kind.

1369
01:06:44,320 --> 01:06:45,560
Speaker 2: Of wanted to take Tampa.

1370
01:06:46,200 --> 01:06:52,240
Speaker 1: Darn you, all right, you're taking Tampa, then, I guess

1371
01:06:52,280 --> 01:06:53,040
Speaker 1: I'm gonna.

1372
01:06:52,760 --> 01:06:53,640
Speaker 2: Go with the Chargers.

1373
01:06:54,160 --> 01:06:54,680
Speaker 3: There you go.

1374
01:06:55,080 --> 01:06:58,240
Speaker 1: I have to all right, before we get out of here,

1375
01:06:58,320 --> 01:07:01,640
Speaker 1: let's bring in Director of Research, Evan Abrams for the

1376
01:07:01,680 --> 01:07:02,320
Speaker 1: final word.

1377
01:07:02,640 --> 01:07:07,280
Speaker 2: Evan the last word With Evan Abrams.

1378
01:07:07,200 --> 01:07:08,280
Speaker 4: We're finished talking.

1379
01:07:08,880 --> 01:07:11,560
Speaker 5: Honestly, I have so much to kind of catch up

1380
01:07:11,560 --> 01:07:13,320
Speaker 5: here on because you've asked me a bunch of questions.

1381
01:07:13,360 --> 01:07:15,200
Speaker 5: So I'm going to attempt to go through a bunch

1382
01:07:15,200 --> 01:07:16,920
Speaker 5: of different things here, and you guys can stop me

1383
01:07:16,960 --> 01:07:20,800
Speaker 5: down whenever you want. So you were talking about like Josh,

1384
01:07:21,000 --> 01:07:24,040
Speaker 5: Lamar and Hurts, obviously all three at home this weekend.

1385
01:07:24,960 --> 01:07:27,520
Speaker 5: Interesting enough, I kind of grouped them together because they

1386
01:07:27,560 --> 01:07:30,160
Speaker 5: all are kind of looking for still that super Bowl win,

1387
01:07:30,320 --> 01:07:32,200
Speaker 5: all trying to get there. Obviously, Hurts has been there

1388
01:07:32,480 --> 01:07:34,720
Speaker 5: there as a group eight and five straight up at

1389
01:07:34,720 --> 01:07:38,400
Speaker 5: home in the playoffs, but one in seven away from home,

1390
01:07:38,440 --> 01:07:41,240
Speaker 5: which means nothing for this weekend, but also says that

1391
01:07:41,560 --> 01:07:43,480
Speaker 5: they just can't get that big one to get there.

1392
01:07:43,480 --> 01:07:46,560
Speaker 5: I found that kind of interesting. The second one I

1393
01:07:46,560 --> 01:07:48,640
Speaker 5: wanted to bring to you, as Simon just alluded to,

1394
01:07:49,000 --> 01:07:52,560
Speaker 5: since twenty seventeen, underdogs fifty two and thirty four in

1395
01:07:52,600 --> 01:07:56,480
Speaker 5: the playoffs against the spread sixty one percent seventeen percent ROI.

1396
01:07:56,600 --> 01:07:59,920
Speaker 5: But wildcard round they're actually twenty four and twelve sixty

1397
01:08:00,120 --> 01:08:04,400
Speaker 5: seven percent even BETTEROW thirty. So yeah, underdogs have had

1398
01:08:04,440 --> 01:08:07,400
Speaker 5: an advantage in this round. Let's keep going with another

1399
01:08:07,400 --> 01:08:09,320
Speaker 5: one Simon mentioned here, So we talked about the first

1400
01:08:09,320 --> 01:08:14,200
Speaker 5: playoff starts, teams making quarterbacks making a first playoff start

1401
01:08:14,200 --> 01:08:17,840
Speaker 5: against a quarterback with experience nineteen and thirty seven against

1402
01:08:17,840 --> 01:08:20,240
Speaker 5: the spread, nineteen and thirty eight straight up since two

1403
01:08:20,240 --> 01:08:23,280
Speaker 5: thousand and two, and basically the same numbers on the

1404
01:08:23,360 --> 01:08:26,200
Speaker 5: road eleven and twenty one straight up. So that's Bonnicks,

1405
01:08:26,360 --> 01:08:30,160
Speaker 5: jayde Daniels, and Sam Darnold this weekend. Let me go

1406
01:08:30,200 --> 01:08:34,040
Speaker 5: to what Chad mentioned, so Chargers with this third straight

1407
01:08:34,160 --> 01:08:38,840
Speaker 5: road game. So yes, teams having their third consecutive road

1408
01:08:38,840 --> 01:08:41,639
Speaker 5: game are thirty nine percent straight up since two thousand

1409
01:08:41,680 --> 01:08:45,559
Speaker 5: and three. But it is important to note favorites are

1410
01:08:45,600 --> 01:08:48,880
Speaker 5: twenty four and eleven in that spot, including three and

1411
01:08:49,000 --> 01:08:53,000
Speaker 5: one in the playoffs. Now, Chad, I took you right.

1412
01:08:53,439 --> 01:08:56,880
Speaker 2: That is right. We're good. We're gonna leave it there.

1413
01:08:56,880 --> 01:08:57,559
Speaker 3: We're gonna leave there.

1414
01:08:58,920 --> 01:09:01,240
Speaker 2: I feel like we're good to say what you want

1415
01:09:01,280 --> 01:09:03,519
Speaker 2: to say. I will say, this is what you want

1416
01:09:03,560 --> 01:09:04,080
Speaker 2: to say.

1417
01:09:04,439 --> 01:09:07,320
Speaker 5: You were talking about good coaches. So I look at

1418
01:09:07,360 --> 01:09:09,280
Speaker 5: it from like probably two points of view. I just

1419
01:09:09,320 --> 01:09:12,000
Speaker 5: took every coach who's won a Super Bowl of the list.

1420
01:09:12,600 --> 01:09:14,960
Speaker 5: They're twenty one and eighteen straight up in the spot

1421
01:09:14,960 --> 01:09:17,920
Speaker 5: as a road favorite. Third gamer later, so above five hundred.

1422
01:09:18,000 --> 01:09:19,840
Speaker 5: I think it proves your point. We can move on

1423
01:09:19,920 --> 01:09:24,280
Speaker 5: from there. I think an interesting aspect that you guys mentioned.

1424
01:09:23,920 --> 01:09:27,080
Speaker 1: His great confirmation bias fucking best.

1425
01:09:27,360 --> 01:09:29,400
Speaker 5: I really spend the entire show trying to make sure

1426
01:09:29,439 --> 01:09:31,360
Speaker 5: you guys look smarter at the end. So let's just

1427
01:09:31,439 --> 01:09:36,400
Speaker 5: keep going with that. So hew say Flowers, I think

1428
01:09:36,479 --> 01:09:38,559
Speaker 5: his impact on the field is worth discussing here. So

1429
01:09:38,880 --> 01:09:42,400
Speaker 5: twenty four point one percent of the Ravens target target

1430
01:09:42,400 --> 01:09:45,160
Speaker 5: share this year, which is almost ten percent higher than

1431
01:09:45,200 --> 01:09:47,240
Speaker 5: the second player on the team, which would be Mark Andrews.

1432
01:09:47,520 --> 01:09:50,200
Speaker 5: And I think the biggest adjustment Lamar might have to

1433
01:09:50,240 --> 01:09:52,920
Speaker 5: go through if Flowers isn't on the field. He has

1434
01:09:53,040 --> 01:09:57,400
Speaker 5: eighty nine first read or designed targets just for Flowers

1435
01:09:57,439 --> 01:10:01,200
Speaker 5: this year. That's forty more than the other guy, Mark

1436
01:10:01,240 --> 01:10:04,200
Speaker 5: Andrews on the team. So without Flowers, I just think

1437
01:10:04,200 --> 01:10:06,519
Speaker 5: he's going to have to adjust his first and second

1438
01:10:06,600 --> 01:10:08,799
Speaker 5: reads a little bit, so that could be interesting.

1439
01:10:09,120 --> 01:10:12,320
Speaker 3: I did look this up. So Tomlin zero to.

1440
01:10:12,160 --> 01:10:14,600
Speaker 5: Five straight up in the playoffs as a dog of

1441
01:10:14,640 --> 01:10:17,719
Speaker 5: three or more, he is the only coach with five

1442
01:10:17,800 --> 01:10:20,800
Speaker 5: losses and no wins since two thousand in that spot.

1443
01:10:20,560 --> 01:10:22,599
Speaker 2: So what about against the spread in that spot?

1444
01:10:22,880 --> 01:10:24,519
Speaker 5: I can look in a second, but the nine and

1445
01:10:24,560 --> 01:10:27,080
Speaker 5: a half is huge for him. But I have that

1446
01:10:27,160 --> 01:10:30,080
Speaker 5: in my article so I can follow up. Let's keep

1447
01:10:30,120 --> 01:10:33,400
Speaker 5: going here for a second. You guys mentioned Pittsburgh and

1448
01:10:33,479 --> 01:10:37,000
Speaker 5: Baltimore and Baltimore having a lead. This one absolutely blew

1449
01:10:37,040 --> 01:10:40,000
Speaker 5: me away. So historically it's been difficult for Baltimore to

1450
01:10:40,040 --> 01:10:43,160
Speaker 5: hold the lead against Pittsburgh. Since twenty twenty, the Ravens

1451
01:10:43,200 --> 01:10:45,960
Speaker 5: are two and seven straight up against the Steelers when

1452
01:10:46,040 --> 01:10:48,360
Speaker 5: leading at any point in the game. They are two

1453
01:10:48,439 --> 01:10:51,320
Speaker 5: and five straight up when leading by seven plus points,

1454
01:10:51,840 --> 01:10:52,559
Speaker 5: which is just.

1455
01:10:52,960 --> 01:10:54,000
Speaker 3: Unbelievable to me.

1456
01:10:54,120 --> 01:10:57,000
Speaker 5: So the narrative of them getting ahead and holding it

1457
01:10:57,040 --> 01:11:01,080
Speaker 5: hasn't been great before. But obviously, different quarterbacks, different situations.

1458
01:11:01,760 --> 01:11:03,880
Speaker 5: I will give you two more here. So you guys

1459
01:11:03,960 --> 01:11:06,680
Speaker 5: like the Eagles and something that I was kind of

1460
01:11:06,720 --> 01:11:10,120
Speaker 5: surprised by. So under Nick Siriani, Philly is twenty four

1461
01:11:10,160 --> 01:11:13,080
Speaker 5: and two straight up, seventeen seven and two against the spread,

1462
01:11:13,160 --> 01:11:15,799
Speaker 5: is a home favorite when leading by seven plus points

1463
01:11:15,800 --> 01:11:17,800
Speaker 5: at any point in the game, so really not giving

1464
01:11:17,840 --> 01:11:20,479
Speaker 5: away the lead at all, and when that opponent is

1465
01:11:20,520 --> 01:11:23,519
Speaker 5: above five hundred in that spot. Sirianni is fourteen and

1466
01:11:23,560 --> 01:11:25,880
Speaker 5: oh straight up and twelve and two against the spread,

1467
01:11:25,960 --> 01:11:28,479
Speaker 5: so getting a lead shouldn't be an issue in this one,

1468
01:11:28,479 --> 01:11:30,800
Speaker 5: at least not historically. And then I know you guys

1469
01:11:30,880 --> 01:11:34,559
Speaker 5: like the Rams, so this is just one spot and

1470
01:11:34,600 --> 01:11:36,600
Speaker 5: the Rams are the only team in this.

1471
01:11:36,640 --> 01:11:37,439
Speaker 3: Spot this week.

1472
01:11:37,520 --> 01:11:42,200
Speaker 5: So teams that become smaller underdogs, so basically open plus four,

1473
01:11:42,520 --> 01:11:46,880
Speaker 5: close plus three are actually forty five and twenty sixty

1474
01:11:46,960 --> 01:11:48,920
Speaker 5: nine percent against the spread over the last twenty years

1475
01:11:48,920 --> 01:11:51,479
Speaker 5: in the playoffs, including fifty five and twelve and a

1476
01:11:51,520 --> 01:11:54,280
Speaker 5: six point teaser. That is just the Rams right now,

1477
01:11:54,360 --> 01:11:57,599
Speaker 5: as every other line has held steady or gotten higher.

1478
01:11:58,360 --> 01:12:00,759
Speaker 2: I gotta say that's some of your best stuff the season.

1479
01:12:01,160 --> 01:12:03,800
Speaker 3: Wow, I'm peaking loved it right right time here.

1480
01:12:03,840 --> 01:12:04,760
Speaker 2: This is PERP loved it.

1481
01:12:05,280 --> 01:12:09,559
Speaker 1: While I'm reading the ad read for bet three sixty five.

1482
01:12:09,760 --> 01:12:12,719
Speaker 1: See if you can find out how Tomlin is against

1483
01:12:12,760 --> 01:12:16,600
Speaker 1: the spread in those five games that we just discussed.

1484
01:12:17,040 --> 01:12:21,439
Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is presented by bet

1485
01:12:21,439 --> 01:12:24,200
Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five

1486
01:12:24,240 --> 01:12:26,479
Speaker 1: customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets

1487
01:12:26,479 --> 01:12:29,000
Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars sign up using promo code

1488
01:12:29,000 --> 01:12:31,400
Speaker 1: Favorites deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars,

1489
01:12:31,439 --> 01:12:33,880
Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars and bonus bets. Those

1490
01:12:33,920 --> 01:12:36,839
Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,

1491
01:12:36,880 --> 01:12:40,519
Speaker 1: and more, whatever the moment. It's never ordinary. A bet

1492
01:12:40,520 --> 01:12:43,600
Speaker 1: three sixty five must be twenty one or older and

1493
01:12:43,720 --> 01:12:50,599
Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

1494
01:12:50,720 --> 01:12:53,680
Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

1495
01:12:53,720 --> 01:12:57,800
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

1496
01:12:57,840 --> 01:13:03,400
Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Say I'm waiting to see

1497
01:13:03,400 --> 01:13:04,560
Speaker 1: in the chat if evan.

1498
01:13:04,960 --> 01:13:07,839
Speaker 5: Four and one against the spread, I have, oh my God,

1499
01:13:08,320 --> 01:13:11,040
Speaker 5: Lou failing to cover the spread by six points per game.

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01:13:11,280 --> 01:13:14,000
Speaker 1: Simon and I will return with our next episode of

1501
01:13:14,000 --> 01:13:17,080
Speaker 1: the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Sunday night

1502
01:13:17,960 --> 01:13:19,559
Speaker 1: after the Packers Eagles game.

1503
01:13:19,600 --> 01:13:22,800
Speaker 2: To recap the first four wild Card.

1504
01:13:22,880 --> 01:13:25,479
Speaker 1: Games, download us some Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get

1505
01:13:25,479 --> 01:13:28,479
Speaker 1: your pods, rate review, subscribe, use five stars, say whatever

1506
01:13:28,520 --> 01:13:32,720
Speaker 1: you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, Love you.

1507
01:13:42,200 --> 01:13:46,720
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1508
01:13:46,720 --> 01:13:49,519
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1509
01:13:49,560 --> 01:13:52,679
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler