Speaker 1: All right, welcome to Hoops to night here at the Volume.
Speaker 1: Happy Saturday, everybody. I hope all of you guys are
Speaker 1: having a great weekend so far. Just a quick show today.
Speaker 1: We're gonna be touching on three topics. We're gonna talk
Speaker 1: about the MAVs kind of strangely punting the last two
Speaker 1: games of their season, even though they had a puncher's
Speaker 1: chance to still get into the play in tournament. Then
Speaker 1: I want to talk about just some scenarios in the
Speaker 1: Western Conference play in the way I think it's going
Speaker 1: to break out, and how I actually think it's the
Speaker 1: best matchups if you want to see some teams like
Speaker 1: the Lakers and Warriors advanced to the second round and
Speaker 1: the last, but not least, our Eastern Conference play in
Speaker 1: tournament is completely set. I just want to talk for
Speaker 1: a few minutes about what I expect to happen in
Speaker 1: that playing tournament, as well as which team from that
Speaker 1: group I think has the most chance to make noise
Speaker 1: in the first round. You guys know the Joe before
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Speaker 1: this MAV's punting thing. Obviously, as competitors, it's hard for
Speaker 1: us to ever rationalize that sort of thing, right, especially
Speaker 1: as fans and fans are especially competitive, Right, that's kind
Speaker 1: of in the nature of what it's like to care
Speaker 1: about a sports team as much as we do, and
Speaker 1: so it's hard to kind of see that line of thinking.
Speaker 1: But a couple of things. I don't think this was
Speaker 1: Luca and Kyrie's decision. This was clearly from above them,
Speaker 1: and it probably is the right decision. Are they going
Speaker 1: to beat anybody in that first round series. Are they
Speaker 1: equipped to beat a team like Denver? No, absolutely not.
Speaker 1: They have no way of ever even hoping to contain
Speaker 1: Nicola Yokich, even with everything they can do offensively to
Speaker 1: disrupt him on the other end of the floor. And
Speaker 1: then Memphis is literally one of the biggest and most
Speaker 1: physically imposing teams in the NBA. In Dallas, that's their
Speaker 1: specific weakness. So they just there's nothing they're gonna accomplish
Speaker 1: by putting the stress on their bodies to get into
Speaker 1: that first round series and get a win. Again, I
Speaker 1: understand it from the standpoint of a competitor, but it's
Speaker 1: not necessarily the right decision. I've talked to a lot
Speaker 1: of Lakers fans before who have said varying versions of
Speaker 1: I wish Kobe didn't go forward in twenty thirteen. You know,
Speaker 1: he killed himself down the stretch of the season to
Speaker 1: try to get the Lakers into the playoffs Tours Achilles
Speaker 1: against the Warriors in a late game, just to get
Speaker 1: them to a first round series with that super clunky
Speaker 1: roster with Steve Nash and Dwight Howard, and it it's
Speaker 1: just what in the Grand scheme of things. While competitively,
Speaker 1: it was a move that made sense, and obviously that's
Speaker 1: Kobe's personality and he's gonna want to do it that way,
Speaker 1: it actually wasn't the best thing for the team. They
Speaker 1: would have been better off a packing things in and
Speaker 1: saving the wear and tear on Kobe's body and finding
Speaker 1: a way to kind of retool around the margins of
Speaker 1: that roster to make it work and give it a
Speaker 1: run the following year, because Kobe was playing at an
Speaker 1: incredibly high level. And that's the way that you have
Speaker 1: to look at this. Kyrie and Luca, the offensive fit
Speaker 1: is there. Kyrie's playing some of the best basketball of
Speaker 1: his career. Just pack it in, make the necessary changes
Speaker 1: this summer, and give it another go. If there's criticism
Speaker 1: to Levy here, it's all towards Mark Cuban and the
Speaker 1: Dallas Mavericks front office. Letting Jalen Brunson go for nothing
Speaker 1: was completely inexcusable. Even for the dollar amounts we were
Speaker 1: talking about. This was not This was not Jimmy Butler
Speaker 1: asking for the Supermax and a team like Chicago being like, like,
Speaker 1: not worth the money. That's not what this was. This
Speaker 1: was not a situation where we were talking about enormous
Speaker 1: salary slot for a player that wasn't necessarily going to
Speaker 1: be worth it. Jalen Brunson was asking for in the
Speaker 1: mid to high twenties, and for a three level scoring
Speaker 1: guard that is as efficient as he was, who averaged
Speaker 1: twenty points per game in the previous playoff run, who
Speaker 1: had turned himself into an above average point of attack defender.
Speaker 1: That is all plenty. That is more than worth it
Speaker 1: for a player like that, And when you have an
Speaker 1: asset like that under your control and you let it go,
Speaker 1: it's it's very difficult to compensate for that. The only
Speaker 1: way they could was by overpaying for Kyrie. And by
Speaker 1: overpaying for Kyrie, they traded away their best athlete and
Speaker 1: took the roster to a point where it was impossible
Speaker 1: for them to linger an NBA games. That's what happened.
Speaker 1: That's not on Kyrie, that's not on Luca. That's on
Speaker 1: the front office, and that's on Mark Cuban, And so
Speaker 1: kind of, as we tie a bow on this really
Speaker 1: disappointing Dallas season, I actually am very optimistic, just like
Speaker 1: I was the day of the Kyrie Irving trade. But
Speaker 1: you know when it comes to how ugly this got
Speaker 1: in the time, since don't look at the guys in
Speaker 1: that locker room, don't look at Kyrie and Luca, look
Speaker 1: at the front office and look at Mark Cuban. They're
Speaker 1: the ones that are responsible. All right, let's talk about
Speaker 1: some West plaint scenario. So the Lakers and Warriors both
Speaker 1: got wins last night. I'm not gonna talk about the
Speaker 1: basketball itself because it just doesn't matter. The Warriors, obviously
Speaker 1: were going against the King's team that was resting all
Speaker 1: their players. The Lakers were going against the Sun's team
Speaker 1: that was resting all their players. I've saw some Laker
Speaker 1: fans kind of hand ringing a little bit about how
Speaker 1: the Lakers have looked the last few games. Look, they
Speaker 1: played the Utah Jazz missing all their guys, and they
Speaker 1: just didn't care. And then they ended up in a
Speaker 1: dog fight that wore their legs out a little bit.
Speaker 1: And then they were in a back to back at
Speaker 1: the end of a long road trip against the Clippers. Obviously,
Speaker 1: we talked about that game at nauseum the other night,
Speaker 1: and then in this game in particular, once again, like
Speaker 1: you're going against campaign and a bunch of guys like
Speaker 1: you're not going to get them to get You're not
Speaker 1: gonna get them like really stokes to play in that game.
Speaker 1: And I don't really judge NBA teams when they're in
Speaker 1: a situation where they're going to play down to their competition.
Speaker 1: It's just not it's not the right representation of what
Speaker 1: you're going to get from that team. So I'm not
Speaker 1: concerned about the Lakers looking a little sloppy against some
Speaker 1: bad teams. I'm not you know that, that to me
Speaker 1: is just kind of the natural way that you're going
Speaker 1: to see some veteran stars like Lebron James and Anthony
Speaker 1: Davis behave, especially if they feel like if they can
Speaker 1: turn it on for five minutes at the end of
Speaker 1: the game and get a win, that that'll be enough.
Speaker 1: So I don't really care about the basketball. I'm more
Speaker 1: interested in the in the actual seating scenarios that could
Speaker 1: play play out as we go through the rest of
Speaker 1: this weekend. So my guess is that all three of
Speaker 1: the Lakers, Clippers, and Warriors will win out. Okay, I
Speaker 1: don't think the Clippers will punt the Phoenix game. The
Speaker 1: problem is, now, you might think to yourself, Okay, if
Speaker 1: we punt the Phoenix game and you know this other
Speaker 1: thing happens, then we get the sixth seed, then we
Speaker 1: don't have to worry about playing the Suns. Yeah, that
Speaker 1: sounds great, but they're all these games are taking place
Speaker 1: at the same time in that like twelve thirty slot
Speaker 1: on Sunday right till thirty Pacific time. So the problem
Speaker 1: is is, like, you punt the Sun's game if you're
Speaker 1: the Clippers, but by happens it happens stance, the Pelicans
Speaker 1: beat the Wolves, suddenly suddenly we end up in this
Speaker 1: like three way tie situation where the Clippers drop down
Speaker 1: to the eight seed or seventh seed, and then now
Speaker 1: they're in a play in game against the Lakers that
Speaker 1: the Lakers will probably be slight favorites in. And if
Speaker 1: the Lakers win that game, now the Clippers are in
Speaker 1: a winner go home game against somebody like the Timberwolves
Speaker 1: or the thunder right, So like that, that is just
Speaker 1: an unacceptable scenario for the Clippers, just as Tylu that's
Speaker 1: they've they've been through that exact same situation and then
Speaker 1: bit by that in the past. So what I expect
Speaker 1: the Clippers to do is to treat that Sun's game
Speaker 1: like a must win, and I don't see any particular
Speaker 1: reason why Phoenix would want to play spoiler. I don't
Speaker 1: see why Phoenix would want to just beat the Clippers
Speaker 1: to mess things up, because if I'm Phoenix, I want
Speaker 1: the Clippers in the first round out of that selection
Speaker 1: of teams that's kind of in that thirty eight thirty
Speaker 1: nine loss area between the Pelicans, the Lakers, the Warriors,
Speaker 1: and the Clippers. I might prefer to play the Clippers
Speaker 1: over all of those teams in terms of like them
Speaker 1: being without Paul George really not having much quality shot
Speaker 1: creation beyond Kawhi Leonard. Like if outside of Kawhi Leonard,
Speaker 1: it's like does Norman and Powell have it tonight? And
Speaker 1: is Russell Westber gonna make more good plays than bad plays?
Speaker 1: That's pretty much your only offensive creation outside of Kawhi Leonards.
Speaker 1: So like I would prefer to prefer to play the Clippers.
Speaker 1: So I would expect the Suns to rest their guys
Speaker 1: on Sunday and to avoid the playing tournament. I'd expect
Speaker 1: the Clippers to treat that game like a must win,
Speaker 1: which means my guess is that this is going to
Speaker 1: break down Clippers as the five seed, Warriors as the
Speaker 1: sixth seed, Lakers as the seventh seed in one of
Speaker 1: either the either the Pelicans or the Timberwolves in that
Speaker 1: eight seed. That's the way I see this breaking down
Speaker 1: from there. I expect the Lakers to win their playing
Speaker 1: game against either of those teams. They are better than
Speaker 1: the Pelicans and they are better than the Wolves, and
Speaker 1: they have demonstrated that recently, so especially in a home
Speaker 1: game in a must win type of situation. Also from
Speaker 1: the Lakers' perspective, I actually this actually broke down pretty
Speaker 1: well with the Warriors situation, with their lack of athleticism
Speaker 1: without Andrew Wiggins. Obviously, Andrew Wiggins is coming back, but
Speaker 1: he's out of rhythm. I would pick the Warriors to
Speaker 1: beat the Grizzlies in a later round playoff series, but
Speaker 1: a first round playoff series against the Grizzlies would be
Speaker 1: really tough because they're huge and physically imposing, and the
Speaker 1: Warriors are still trying to get Andrew Wiggins up to speed.
Speaker 1: So I think it's good that the Warriors can dodge that.
Speaker 1: That Sacramento matchup at six is actually probably the ideal
Speaker 1: situation for the Warriors in the first round, and if
Speaker 1: you're picking somebody from one, two, three, four to play
Speaker 1: as the Warriors, Sacramento is the team you'd prefer to play,
Speaker 1: So that breaks out perfectly for the Warriors. The Lakers. Obviously,
Speaker 1: Memphis is a tough first round matchup, but it's a
Speaker 1: good matchup for the Lakers, right So you've got this
Speaker 1: downhill force and John Morant that wants to operate around
Speaker 1: the rim that we have actively seen on many different occasions.
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis caused problems for that was one of the
Speaker 1: games earlier, like a month or so ago without Lebron James.
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis in the first half of that game just
Speaker 1: dominated the game defensively with what he was able to
Speaker 1: do around the rim. The Memphis Grizzys are a team
Speaker 1: you can pack the paint against, so I expect the
Speaker 1: Lakers to pack the paint and have success slowing down
Speaker 1: Memphis's offense in a first round series there. So it's
Speaker 1: a good matchup. And then on the other end of
Speaker 1: the floor, obviously Memphis is physical. Dylan Brooks has guarded
Speaker 1: Lebron pretty well this season, although we'll see if he
Speaker 1: could do it for a whole playoff series. Jaren Jackson
Speaker 1: Junior protecting the rim. It'll be a tough challenge, but
Speaker 1: I do think the Lakers have more half court offensive skill,
Speaker 1: and I actually think they're a little bit better as
Speaker 1: a half court defense when they're really locked in, and
Speaker 1: you've seen that post deadline, as the Lakers have been
Speaker 1: one of the best defenses in the league. The biggest
Speaker 1: wrinkle there will be point of attack defense in their
Speaker 1: ability to contain John Morant. But they can do that.
Speaker 1: They can do things like put Dennis Schroeder on him
Speaker 1: as much as possible, and then during the possessions, when
Speaker 1: you know when it's the starting lineup in D'Angelo Russell
Speaker 1: and Austin Reeves are out there, they can do a
Speaker 1: lot of digging off of Dylan Brooks and a lot
Speaker 1: of digging off of Xavier Tillman and and maybe concede
Speaker 1: more threes to Jaren Jackson. They can find ways to
Speaker 1: contain John Morant with their weaker point of attack defenders
Speaker 1: and then try to structure their lineup so that you
Speaker 1: can put Dennis Schroeder on John Morant during the times
Speaker 1: when there's less rim protection on the floor because Dennis
Speaker 1: is their best point of attack defenders. So I actually
Speaker 1: like that matchup for the Lakers, even though that's a
Speaker 1: tougher series. Like I think Warrior, I think Grizzlies Lakers
Speaker 1: is gonna be very close, whereas Warriors Kings that I
Speaker 1: think the Warriors will be a decent sized favorite in
Speaker 1: that series. The Clippers, you know, it's tough, like the Suns,
Speaker 1: they don't think have a very good point of attack defense.
Speaker 1: They're gonna have to deploy Josh Akogi on Kawhi Leonard.
Speaker 1: In all likelihood, that means Russell Westbrook is gonna have
Speaker 1: good matchups attacking down hill throughout the series. There's gonna
Speaker 1: be a lot of pressure on guys like Kevin durand
Speaker 1: DeAndre to attack the paint. But we talked about it earlier.
Speaker 1: The Clippers just don't have enough shot creation, and they're
Speaker 1: not as good defensively as you think, and they don't
Speaker 1: have great rim protection. So at the end of the day,
Speaker 1: that to me is just an easy win for the Suns.
Speaker 1: But that breaks down pretty entertainingly because if Kad beats
Speaker 1: the Nuggets, you'll have kadivers Yokits, which is interesting, and
Speaker 1: then you could if the Lakers beat the Grizzlies and
Speaker 1: the Warriors beat the Kings, we could end up with
Speaker 1: a Warriors Lakers Steph versus Lebron for the right to
Speaker 1: play Kad in the conference finals for the right to
Speaker 1: play Jannis or Tatum and Brown and the Celtics in
Speaker 1: the finals, which would be a really really interesting playoff runs.
Speaker 1: So my guess is it's going to break down five, six,
Speaker 1: seven with Clippers, Warriors, Lakers. My guess is that the
Speaker 1: Clippers lose to the Sun the Suns as of right now,
Speaker 1: and that the Warriors have a good chance to beat
Speaker 1: the Kings and the Lakers have somewhat of a chance
Speaker 1: to beat the Grizzlies. We'll go deeper into that as
Speaker 1: we get closer to the playoffs. But that's just kind
Speaker 1: of like where the way I see this breaking down
Speaker 1: right now, and I think that's interesting. Last, but not least,
Speaker 1: before we get out of here, the East play in
Speaker 1: tournament is set. Atlanta is gonna travel to Miami to
Speaker 1: play in the seven eighth game, and then Chicago is
Speaker 1: gonna travel to Toronto to play in the nine ten game.
Speaker 1: I think the home teams are gonna win all three
Speaker 1: of these games, I think Miami's better than Atlanta. Atlanta's
Speaker 1: kind of started to play a little bit better. Quinn
Speaker 1: Snyder was talking about how they're starting to figure out
Speaker 1: some stuff with their spacing, but then they go and
Speaker 1: drop a game to the playing all their guys to
Speaker 1: Philadelphia last night. Now, mind you, it doesn't really matter,
Speaker 1: but it's just weird, Like every time I have an
Speaker 1: opportunity to kind of get stoked on Atlanta doing something,
Speaker 1: they just start to kind of look mediocre again. But
Speaker 1: that's said, I think Toronto, even though Toronto will beat Chicago,
Speaker 1: in my opinion, I think Atlanta would beat Toronto. I
Speaker 1: think Miami and Atlanta are by far the two best
Speaker 1: teams in that play in bracket right now. As far
Speaker 1: as which team has a chance to make noise in
Speaker 1: the first round, you can't go anywhere other than Miami.
Speaker 1: Miami versus Boston is an interesting psychological matchup that we've
Speaker 1: seen a lot over the years. Miami feels confident that matchup.
Speaker 1: Miami's won two games in a row against Boston last year.
Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler pull up three at the end of Game
Speaker 1: seven that had a chance to send the Miami Heat
Speaker 1: to the NBA Finals. It's a matchup. They're comfortable, and
Speaker 1: again you can it's they're not as talented as they
Speaker 1: were last year. They just look a little bit older,
Speaker 1: a little bit slower, a little less consistent. They've always
Speaker 1: been one of those teams that, like, if you catch
Speaker 1: them on the right night in the playoffs, they look bad.
Speaker 1: You check catch them on the other type of night,
Speaker 1: and they can look like the best team in the world. Right,
Speaker 1: So like it's they're just there's so much variance there.
Speaker 1: It's tough to really project them. But Jimmy Butler is
Speaker 1: very capable of being the best player in that series.
Speaker 1: He's capable about playing Jayson Tatum. He did several times
Speaker 1: during the Eastern Conference Finals last year. You know, Eric
Speaker 1: Spoelstra is going to mix things up schematically and double
Speaker 1: and then not double and then run zone and then
Speaker 1: here's a little half court, you know, kind of pressure situation,
Speaker 1: and they're just going to execute extremely well and make
Speaker 1: Boston feel uncomfortable. And you can almost bet your life
Speaker 1: that's going to be at least a six game series,
Speaker 1: which means anything can happen. When you get down to
Speaker 1: game six and game if Miami happens to pull a
Speaker 1: game out. So the East play in tournament is a
Speaker 1: little less interesting because we don't have the type of
Speaker 1: like championship level contender that we have in the Lakers
Speaker 1: at that seven seed. And again everyone freaks out. The
Speaker 1: Lakers have been the second best team in the league
Speaker 1: since the trade deadline. They've been one of the very
Speaker 1: best defenses. They've been one of the very best rebounding teams,
Speaker 1: and they've done most of that without D'Angelo Russell and
Speaker 1: Lebron James. With D'Angelo Russell and Lebron James and their
Speaker 1: starting lineup, they are bludgeoning teams. The Lakers are good.
Speaker 1: Don't look at their record. You have to look at
Speaker 1: their record post deadline. It's not the same team. They
Speaker 1: overhauled almost the entire roster. That East play in tournament
Speaker 1: does not have a team of that caliber. Although I
Speaker 1: do think Miami is by unique nature of their matchup
Speaker 1: with Boston and the Jimmy Butler element, that they're capable
Speaker 1: of pulling out a series there. We're gonna do a
Speaker 1: deeper dive into these playoff matchups as we get closer,
Speaker 1: but just kind of kind of headed into this weekend
Speaker 1: and how the play in tournament is shaking out. It
Speaker 1: just wanted to kind briefly touch on it. All, Right, guys,
Speaker 1: that's all I have for today. So here's the plan.
Speaker 1: We're gonna be doing a show with Colin Coward tomorrow
Speaker 1: evening at six thirty pm Pacific time. That's gonna be
Speaker 1: breaking down everything that happened in the Sunday slate. I'm
Speaker 1: also gonna be recording a video tomorrow that will air
Speaker 1: on Monday that's gonna break down the playing tournament in
Speaker 1: some detail. So keep an eye on the feeds tomorrow
Speaker 1: night and on Monday morning for some contents arounding the
Speaker 1: play in tournament. As always, I appreciate you guys, and
Speaker 1: I'll see you tomorrow night with Colin the Volume