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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along

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Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day

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Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Let's stick with the economy.

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Speaker 2: Francis Donald of RBC right in the following. Whereas the

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Speaker 2: Trump administration was initially celebrated for its emphasis on deregulation

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Speaker 2: and tax cards, it is now facing tariff centric policy

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Speaker 2: and fiscal pullbacks, which is not reflationary but stagflationary. Joining

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Speaker 2: us now two of the very best, Francis Donald and

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Speaker 2: Al Selinos. Francis here in New York, Alsa over in London.

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Speaker 2: I just think the perfect pairing for this morning, because

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Speaker 2: we're talking at the end of US exceptionalism and that

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Speaker 2: has a big effects impact that we can talk about

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Speaker 2: with Alsa shortly Francis, I want to begin with you,

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Speaker 2: what's changed in the past month.

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Speaker 3: Well, when we talked about US exceptionalism, let's remember that

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Speaker 3: it was generally a call on the structure of the economy,

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Speaker 3: which was really being supported by fiscal chips at AI,

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Speaker 3: a good underlying fundamentals, and the cyclical acceleration. I don't

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Speaker 3: think the structural story for the United States has changed

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Speaker 3: too much here, but that cyclical optimism is what is

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Speaker 3: fading at this point, and we are seeing we are

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Speaker 3: seeing the damage from tariff uncertainty creep into the sentiment surveys,

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Speaker 3: creep into soft data. What we need to see now

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Speaker 3: is does the soft data bleed into the hard data,

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Speaker 3: especially with this K shaped economy where the ultra wealthy

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Speaker 3: have been supporting the whole And what concerns me most

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Speaker 3: as well. We heard from President Trump, we heard from

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Speaker 3: Secretary be said that they're not watching the stock market anymore.

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Speaker 3: Maybe if they're watching the economy, they need to be

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Speaker 3: aware of that wealth effect flowing through. The Other component

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Speaker 3: of this, which is hugely important, is just how inflationary

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Speaker 3: those tariffs turn out to be. Strongly depends on the

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Speaker 3: path of the US dollar. That's why Elsa's views are

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Speaker 3: so critical to the economy. Now, it's not just economy

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Speaker 3: to effects, it's how effects will change the shape of

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Speaker 3: tariffs and just how stagulationary they are.

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Speaker 4: Which also is the reason why a lot of people

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Speaker 4: expected that a strong dollar would offset the inflationary aspects

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Speaker 4: of those tariffs, exactly to Francis's point, and yet what

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Speaker 4: we've gotten is that exactly the opposite. And it's part

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Speaker 4: of what's going on with growth fears in the US,

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Speaker 4: but it also has to do a lot with what's

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Speaker 4: going on in Europe. How far can that dollar weakness

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Speaker 4: really go?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, absolutely right. It's been an absolute momentous week for Europe.

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Speaker 5: I mean, the scale of integration and large scale announcements

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Speaker 5: we've heard this week just Pelsantine significance compared to anything

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Speaker 5: we've heard over recent years. So I think there are

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Speaker 5: a number of cross currents. As you said, there are

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Speaker 5: a number of people saying, well, actually a stronger dollar

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Speaker 5: could offset the impact of tariffs. I disagree with that.

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Speaker 5: The large majority of US imports are actually denominated in

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Speaker 5: US dollars, so a lot of that effect would actually

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Speaker 5: accrue to exporters in terms of profit margins, but thinking

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Speaker 5: more generally about where the dollar goes from here. As

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Speaker 5: I said, we have a number of cross currents because

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Speaker 5: it wasn't just the fiscal announcement coming out of Europe

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Speaker 5: this week. There's also the fact that we already had

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Speaker 5: better European data. We saw that again this morning with

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Speaker 5: the upgrade to Q four GDP. Actually the economy did

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Speaker 5: reasonably well from initial reading that was point zero five,

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Speaker 5: fairly better than flat up to point two two now,

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Speaker 5: with a lot of that coming from domestic demand. And

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Speaker 5: so I think it's that challenge which has caught people off. God,

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Speaker 5: how much further can the dollar on? I mean, you know,

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Speaker 5: we've been nying up one twelve as a decent verse

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Speaker 5: resistance level, just because that's the level we got to

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Speaker 5: in September of last year, when again there was that

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Speaker 5: pessimism about us exceptionalism.

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Speaker 4: I miss the days when we're talking about gross differentials

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Speaker 4: and inflation differentials and we could just focus on that.

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Speaker 4: Now there's tariffs, now, there's questions about spending. Now, there

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Speaker 4: are questions all of this, Just to for instance, the

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Speaker 4: point if you tried to strip it down, which is

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Speaker 4: kind of the goal right now, its just growth and inflation,

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Speaker 4: which is the biggest lever to pay attention to when

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Speaker 4: it comes to the US rates outlook. When it comes

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Speaker 4: to just how much these tariffs could really affect the

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Speaker 4: US economy, well.

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Speaker 3: It's a great question, and I'm glad you qualified for

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Speaker 3: the United States because it did really differs depending on

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Speaker 3: which country you're looking at. In the United States, they

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Speaker 3: have some growth margin. We were looking at two percent

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Speaker 3: growth for twenty twenty five. If we have to downgrade

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Speaker 3: till even one percent, I mean, it's not a great development.

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Speaker 3: You have to have a rerating across many asset classes,

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Speaker 3: but it's not going to break the US economy. Where

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Speaker 3: there is very little room is on the inflation side.

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Speaker 3: And if we do see these twenty five percent tariffs

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Speaker 3: come through one month from now, we could be seeing

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Speaker 3: three percent cour inflation by year. And combine that with

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Speaker 3: a structurally tight labor market, it's not a great position

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Speaker 3: to be in for the Federal Reserve. High inflation is

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Speaker 3: going to be what it becomes more problematic for the

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Speaker 3: American psyche right now, especially because let's not forget prices

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Speaker 3: are up twenty nine percent since Trump's first day in

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Speaker 3: office back in twenty eighteen. The appetite among households, businesses,

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Speaker 3: and the market for the inflation side of the picture

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Speaker 3: is very different now than I suspect the growth side.

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Speaker 4: You were at the Economic Club last night, Francis, and

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Speaker 4: you heard what Scott Besson had to say. He says,

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Speaker 4: this one price shock is transitory.

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Speaker 1: Do you think it's transitory? Do you think this will

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Speaker 1: bleed through for months to come?

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Speaker 3: Well, economists and those who like to say that tariffs

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Speaker 3: will not be problematic for the American people will say

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Speaker 3: it's transitory, and what they mean by that is there's

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Speaker 3: a one time price level adjustment and one year later

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Speaker 3: it drops out of the year over year. But I

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Speaker 3: like to say tariff price level increases are also permanent,

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Speaker 3: so the price increases, but then it stays at that

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Speaker 3: level for an extended period of time. What came out

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Speaker 3: of me from that speech was that, you know, Secretary

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Speaker 3: Ofscent described a nice economy, one where we've deleveraged from

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Speaker 3: the public sector over to the private sector, one where

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Speaker 3: trade is recalibrated for the American people. It actually sounds

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Speaker 3: like a great economy that many economists would check the

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Speaker 3: box on. But you have to build the bridge to

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Speaker 3: the other side. And from my perspective, what this market

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Speaker 3: is coming to recognize is that that bridge to the

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Speaker 3: economy that's being described is not seamless, and it may

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Speaker 3: not be guaranteed.

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Speaker 2: I might do a lot of damage in between. We

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Speaker 2: started this year and I talked about it repeatedly. We

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Speaker 2: all did that the policy makes would attract a lot

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Speaker 2: of capital from the rest of the world. It's the

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Speaker 2: policy mix stying to push it away. Is it too

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Speaker 2: early to tell?

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Speaker 3: It's a sequencing issue, So we're not getting the juicy,

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Speaker 3: high quality invest in American exceptionalism content. First. Some of

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Speaker 3: that may be just having to fund some of the

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Speaker 3: better things. But there's some story that you kind of

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Speaker 3: have to eat your vegetables before you get your dessert.

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Speaker 3: Maybe that's a little bit of the mix that we're

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Speaker 3: getting right now.

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Speaker 4: And also, this is exactly the point behind a lot

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Speaker 4: of the really bold calls behind euro strength. Given the

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Speaker 4: fact that people are seeing suddenly the sucking sound away

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Speaker 4: from the United States toward Europe, how much are you

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Speaker 4: actually seeing evidence of that that Euros are flooding in

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Speaker 4: with what we just saw the biggest weekly inflow into

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Speaker 4: European stocks going twenty twenty two. I mean, you've just

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Speaker 4: seen this groundswell.

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Speaker 5: So we're certainly seeing a huge shift in the short

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Speaker 5: term positioning, and actually on our short term positioning monitors.

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Speaker 5: Markets already actually turned long ear a dollar, having been

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Speaker 5: quite consistently short. But it's interesting, you know, I've seen

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Speaker 5: some calls out there for this kind of continued euro's strength,

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Speaker 5: kind of pacing it gently throughout the course of the

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Speaker 5: next twelve months. I actually think it could look pretty different.

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Speaker 5: I mean, there's this initial move, which is very likely.

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Speaker 5: It feels like it's going to get into overshoot territory

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Speaker 5: because it happens so quickly and people are somewhat chasing

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Speaker 5: the move. On top of that, you've got that equity

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Speaker 5: angle that I feel is really underappreciated the impact that

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Speaker 5: has on the currency market, because we're seeing a structural

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Speaker 5: reallocation out of US equities back into European equities, and

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Speaker 5: there's a currency component to that as well. But once

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Speaker 5: all that washes out, you know, the point France has

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Speaker 5: made is absolutely critical. Is this going to be an

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Speaker 5: environment where the Fed can cut rates aggressively or is

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Speaker 5: the inflationary backdrop going to prevent them from doing that.

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Speaker 5: And if you don't have those aggressive FED cuts, then

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Speaker 5: those kind of calls are one twenty one twenty five

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Speaker 5: that you know we got to back in twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 5: that one twenty three fifty high that looks much harder

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Speaker 5: to achieve without that convergence in frontend rate differentials.

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Speaker 2: So there's one piece of this story over in Europe

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Speaker 2: that I'm trying to make sense of, and perhaps you

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Speaker 2: can help me. We've had a massive week for the

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Speaker 2: Europe I know that off the back of the plans

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Speaker 2: to boost infrastructure spending. But this all started when President

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump made a more aggressive push to end the

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Speaker 2: war in Ukraine. That's when the euro started to move

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Speaker 2: started to find a flaw. And also, I wonder if

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Speaker 2: Germany is going about rearmic and the whole of the

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Speaker 2: continent goes about rearming, does that make war more or

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Speaker 2: less likely, because that's going to have quite an impact

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Speaker 2: on the continent and financial markets.

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Speaker 5: It's a great question, John, and I think one which

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Speaker 5: people have in the back of their minds. You know,

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Speaker 5: our spot trader here in London was mentioning that this morning,

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Speaker 5: you know, is it necessarily great for Europe if we're

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Speaker 5: having to rearm ourselves with the risk right on our

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Speaker 5: eastern borders. I don't think that's the story that people

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Speaker 5: are focusing sing on today. I think they're far more

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Speaker 5: focused on that kind of n WUS exceptionalism and the

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Speaker 5: swing and capital away from the US back to Europe.

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Speaker 5: But that's certainly a risk premium that's going to be

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Speaker 5: baked into the back of people's minds too.

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Speaker 2: With the very best stan Selnya SASABC Francis Donald here

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Speaker 2: in New York. So that both of you thank you breaking

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Speaker 2: down the jobs report. We can continue the conversation now

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Speaker 2: around the table with definitely Wrath of Wolf research Kathy

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Speaker 2: Jones of Charles Swap to the turf. You welcome to

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Speaker 2: the program. Stephanie's just first to you to talk about

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Speaker 2: the economy. First look, first take.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, not expected, and as you alluded, the headlines are

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Speaker 6: very different from what we saw in the data. Big

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Speaker 6: reason is just a timing miss match. Right the survey

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Speaker 6: we fell just before all the significant layoffs hit the net.

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Speaker 6: The next payrolls print is going to look a lot

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Speaker 6: uglier than this one. So yes, we can't really have

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Speaker 6: a sigh of relief as a result of today's data,

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Speaker 6: because we're gonna start getting hit pretty significantly on the

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Speaker 6: perils print. We're gonna start the apparels prints that are

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Speaker 6: around one hundred thousand, if not slightly below.

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Speaker 2: Kathy, is that how you see things?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think they slow down is taking place, and

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Speaker 1: we will see more of it. It'll snowball as things

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Speaker 1: go forward. You know, one of the things when you

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Speaker 1: have fewer hours worked and you have less aggregate income,

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Speaker 1: and that means less spending power for the consumer. So

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Speaker 1: that's going to ripple through and then you have this

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Speaker 1: level of uncertainty where every day is a new policy

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Speaker 1: and if you're trying to plan business activity going forward,

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Speaker 1: I'll forget the consumer. Do I have a job or not?

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Speaker 1: But think about businesses. What's my labor force look like?

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Speaker 1: What are my materials cost? Can I get my hands

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Speaker 1: on those materials? What's the demand going to look like?

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Speaker 1: I mean, all those are big questions that make people

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Speaker 1: freeze and say I'm just not doing anything to li

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Speaker 1: havee some clarity, which.

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Speaker 4: Is the reason why and Stephanie, a number of people

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Speaker 4: have raised this point. People are trying to understand the

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Speaker 4: momentum heading into this period to understand the resilience, the

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Speaker 4: potential resilience for the US economy to deal with that

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Speaker 4: kind of uncertainty. One hundred and fifty one thousand isn't bad.

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Speaker 4: It actually is a pretty solid labor market. So how

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Speaker 4: much give do we really have in this labor market?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's fair.

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Speaker 6: But now all of a sudden, we had a sudden

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Speaker 6: surprise to activity, and I don't think folks were expecting

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Speaker 6: the extent of the government layoffs that are going to

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Speaker 6: play out the contractors that are tied to them. And then,

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Speaker 6: by the way, the immigration stuff he cut off on

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Speaker 6: January twentieth, that was adding for much of last year

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Speaker 6: on seventy five thousand workers to the workforce that's cut off,

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Speaker 6: and the reasons are going to start expiring throughout the

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Speaker 6: course of the next two years.

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Speaker 4: But do you think the end destination is still possible

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Speaker 4: because what they're talking about is moving from a public

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Speaker 4: policy to more private sector jobs.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, and that's totally fair, but it's just going to

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Speaker 6: take a while and it's a painful process along the way.

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Speaker 6: So the endgame might ultimately result in a sort of

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Speaker 6: a rebalanced economy, but that doesn't mean it's going to

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Speaker 6: feel good.

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Speaker 2: For the next six months. OK, Kathy, this sounds very

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Speaker 2: Billy for Bonts, is it.

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Speaker 6: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: You know, we're still in the camp that says the

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Speaker 1: Fed's on hold for a while because they have to

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Speaker 1: sort out all these cross currents and the inflation potential

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Speaker 1: coming from terraffs, so they can't do anything. So we're

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Speaker 1: in the long end. You have you have probably the slowdown,

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Speaker 1: which will bring yields back down probably ten year, around

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Speaker 1: three eighty or so, but not until we actually see

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Speaker 1: that data, because your offsetting is you have potential inflation

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Speaker 1: from tariffs. So right now we're just bouncing around in

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Speaker 1: this range waiting to see which plays out first. The

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Speaker 1: inflation plays out first or the slowdown plays out first.

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Speaker 1: Right now, it looks like the slowdown might play out

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Speaker 1: before the inflation, but you know, we don't know day

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Speaker 1: to day what.

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Speaker 4: Teriffs look like.

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Speaker 2: If you are just joining us, welcome to the program.

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Speaker 2: The Job's report came out just moments ago, nine minutes ago,

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Speaker 2: and it came in like this, one fifty one, just

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Speaker 2: a small downside surprise. We've been looking for one sixty

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Speaker 2: lots of numbers to talk about our swear to do that.

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Speaker 2: Right now, we can bring Mohammad Aaron of Queen's College,

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Speaker 2: Cambridge into the program. Mohammed, welcome to the program, sir.

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Speaker 2: Let's get to that job's report. What's your interpretation of things?

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Speaker 7: I think you captured it well when you said, you know,

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Speaker 7: no big news here. The only thing that I will

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Speaker 7: be torturing is the labor force participation. But everything else

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Speaker 7: came in as expected. And I think everybody's right in

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Speaker 7: saying what's more important, what's ahead of us? Not this report?

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Speaker 4: That said Mohammad, We've been talking a lot about the

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Speaker 4: momentum in the US economy and the fact that it

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Speaker 4: takes a long time to turn things around. Is there

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Speaker 4: any part of this report that makes you concerned about

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Speaker 4: the level of exceptionalism that we're coming off of into

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Speaker 4: this period of uncertainty?

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Speaker 7: Not in this report, Lisa, but in a lot of

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Speaker 7: other data there is. You know, the edge of the

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Speaker 7: US has been predictability, has been transparency, and you're starting

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Speaker 7: to see more and more business step back, not just

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Speaker 7: on a short term basis, but really think how much

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Speaker 7: longer do I need before I figure out what's my

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Speaker 7: operating environment, and that builds on itself really quickly. So

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Speaker 7: you know, the risk here is that below the economic exceptionalism,

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Speaker 7: which is strong economic performance, strong acid price performance, has

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Speaker 7: been this notion of the US edge, and I'm worry

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Speaker 7: that this edge is being eroded right now.

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Speaker 3: So Mohammed, are you saying it's the death of US exceptionalism.

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Speaker 7: I'm not. I'm saying it's under enormous pressure. We still

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Speaker 7: have attributes that other countries, you know, would dream of.

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Speaker 7: So you don't kill the US economic exceptionalism, but you

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Speaker 7: could put it on pause as people try to figure

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Speaker 7: out what the operating environment is.

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Speaker 2: Mohammed Worth five six weeks into a new administration. Has

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Speaker 2: that much changed that quickly in such a short amount

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Speaker 2: of time, So I.

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Speaker 7: Think there's been lots of changes. Just go to Germany

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Speaker 7: and see what's happening there. Look at the debate there.

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Speaker 7: It's been a Sputnik moment for Germany in terms of

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Speaker 7: defense spending, infrastructure spending. John, all I can tell you

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Speaker 7: is that all the consensus trades at the beginning of

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Speaker 7: the year have been upended, every single one of them.

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Speaker 7: Currency waits relative US equity performance to the rest of

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Speaker 7: the world. I can go across the board every single

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Speaker 7: consensus trade has been upended, and that tells you that

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Speaker 7: there has been significant.

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Speaker 4: Change, which race is a question about how much this

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Speaker 4: is a trade and how much this is a fundamental

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Speaker 4: shift that can actually get implemented in economic data. That

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Speaker 4: takes time, and Stephanie, I would ask you that how

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Speaker 4: long is the transmission mechanism for some of these things

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Speaker 4: at a time when there are some fundamental policy shifts

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Speaker 4: that will take time to implement, but it takes even

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Speaker 4: longer time to ripple through the underlying data and the

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Speaker 4: underlying sense of strengths.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, it should take a couple of months for us

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Speaker 6: to start to see it reflect on the data. Of course,

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Speaker 6: for example, today the February data look just fine. The

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Speaker 6: March data are going to start to reflect this, and

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Speaker 6: I would expect in the next three months will start

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Speaker 6: to see the real impact. For example, the impacts from tariffs.

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Speaker 6: It takes about three to six months to work its

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Speaker 6: way into the CPI data, so that's when we'd start

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Speaker 6: to see that. The payrolls numbers we're going to start

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Speaker 6: to see in the next couple of months. Because the

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Speaker 6: job a lot of the job cuts are fairly immediate,

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Speaker 6: and then you'll see the government contractors as a result

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Speaker 6: the fallout from that afterwards. So I would expect in

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Speaker 6: six months time we'll see a lot more of this

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Speaker 6: truly reflected in the data, but we'll start to see

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Speaker 6: it in the next couple of prints.

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Speaker 4: Kathy from an investment perspective, and Muhammad was talking about

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Speaker 4: how the policy shifts have been pretty traumatic and the

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Speaker 4: market is trying to be a forward looking prognosticator.

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Speaker 1: How do you make bold moves?

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Speaker 4: Do you just hide out in cash? Do you keep

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Speaker 4: your allocations? I'm serious, it's sort of such a volatile

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Speaker 4: time with sort of the reality checks coming out where

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Speaker 4: there isn't that much news in the economic data.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I don't think cash is the solution

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Speaker 1: because you know that it gives you some optionality. So

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Speaker 1: building some liquidity I think is a good idea, and

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Speaker 1: I think people undervalue liquidity in their asset allocation when

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Speaker 1: things good and we've had this long stretch of everything's

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Speaker 1: great and who needs liquidity? Now, I think you do

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Speaker 1: need liquidity, But we are also keeping our benchmark duration

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Speaker 1: right at benchmark, we're not extending yet.

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Speaker 7: We hope.

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Speaker 1: We hope to see an opportunity, but there's too much

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Speaker 1: noise right now to take that risk. And then we're

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Speaker 1: saying up in credit quality because you just don't have

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Speaker 1: enough excess return there to justify taking a lot of

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Speaker 1: credit risk. And we don't know what industries are really

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Speaker 1: going to get hit. Some industries are going to suffer,

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Speaker 1: and we do expect some spreads to widen as a

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Speaker 1: result of that.

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Speaker 2: Europe's had a long stretch of everything's bad, and that's

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Speaker 2: changed pretty quickly. Mahamedz comes to you on that. I

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Speaker 2: remember in early November, shortly after the election, you said

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Speaker 2: to us on this program, that sucking sounds you hear

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Speaker 2: is capital coming in from the rest of the world

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Speaker 2: into the United States. That sucking sound we heard this

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Speaker 2: week was capital, gun I swear, and we've heard that

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Speaker 2: a lot throughout the year so far. Mahammed, what do

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Speaker 2: you think about that reversal inflows that a lot of

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Speaker 2: people have identified recently, and how sustainable do you think

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Speaker 2: it is?

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Speaker 7: So that reversal makes sense given what has happened over

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Speaker 7: the last few weeks, is it sustainable? I don't know, John,

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Speaker 7: you know, the jury is still out as to whether

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Speaker 7: Europe is going to be able to go from words

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Speaker 7: to actions. It's not easy politically, it's not easy socially.

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Speaker 7: They have governance issues. So I'm not sure that sucking,

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Speaker 7: the reversal sucking sound, if you luck, is going to

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Speaker 7: continue for a while. But I understand why, because there's

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Speaker 7: been a shock to a lot of the conventional wisdom

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Speaker 7: on the US and on Europe.

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Speaker 4: Muhammed, has there been an end to the sucking sound

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Speaker 4: from the United States?

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Speaker 7: We'll see the data. I suspect you'll see that there's

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Speaker 7: certainly less fewer influence coming into the US. But has

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Speaker 7: it completely stopped. I doubt, I really doubted. The US

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Speaker 7: has some attributes that are very difficult to mess up.

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Speaker 7: So the US is still you know, whether you want

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Speaker 7: to call it the cleaner, sturdy shirts or whatever, but

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Speaker 7: it's simply not as clean for outsiders as it was

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Speaker 7: a few weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: But Muhammad, where was everyone?

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Speaker 4: The president was talking about these policies for.

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Speaker 3: Months leading up to the election, and then talking about

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Speaker 3: these policies for months between the election and inauguration.

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Speaker 1: Everyone knew what his plan was.

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Speaker 3: Why is everyone shocked?

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Speaker 7: Sequencing? And you talked about it earlier today. So we

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Speaker 7: know the five areas in which he's going to move

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Speaker 7: to our unambiguously beneficial to the economy. Three have good

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Speaker 7: and bad to them. There's a journey issue in those three,

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Speaker 7: and the hope and the market expected that the sequencing

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Speaker 7: wouldn't be what it is now. What you're getting now

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Speaker 7: is okay, we've got to get go through the detox,

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Speaker 7: we've got to go through delivered disturbances, and then we

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Speaker 7: will get the good. The market expected the good to

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Speaker 7: come much earlier, therefore offsetting the bag, and that's not

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Speaker 7: what has happened.

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Speaker 2: It's definitely not in your head away. As Mahommed speaking,

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Speaker 2: you agree absolutely.

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Speaker 6: We were expecting tariff to become a bigger thing for

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Speaker 6: later in the year to tie to TCJA. They're coming

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Speaker 6: much earlier. This has a legitimate impact on the economy.

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Speaker 6: And by the way, the uncertainty is even greater than

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Speaker 6: anyone had anticipated. So to the point earlier on CATBAX

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Speaker 6: being sort of stalled out here, it's hard to make

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Speaker 6: any investments when you don't even know what the tax

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Speaker 6: rates are going to be from a tariff perspective, and

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Speaker 6: then they change day to day.

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Speaker 2: We're reacting to the payrolls report next week. Is the

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Speaker 2: CPI number that comes on the twelfth on the Wednesday, Muhammed,

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Speaker 2: I want to come to you just on a final question.

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Speaker 2: Secretary best In yesterday at the Economic Club in New

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Speaker 2: York said he'd like Team Transit Tree to get the

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Speaker 2: band back together at the Federal Reserve and look through

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Speaker 2: any inflation pop coming off the back of the tariffs.

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Speaker 2: I just wonder how you feel about Team Transitory getting

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Speaker 2: the band back together.

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Speaker 7: John, I'd go back to what Stephanie said. There was

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Speaker 7: price pass through from tariffs. Companies are much more agile

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Speaker 7: in how they think about passing on prices than they

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Speaker 7: were before. So I think, you know, if Team transit

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Speaker 7: It gets back together, I wouldn't have them commit to

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Speaker 7: too long a playlist.

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Speaker 2: It's a good way of putting it, Mohammad. We'll leave

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Speaker 2: it there. Thank you, Sir Muhammad al Aerian of Queen's College,

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Speaker 2: Cambridge on the Federal Reserve, on the jobs data and

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Speaker 2: this market as well, And a special thanks to Stephanie

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Speaker 2: ruther Wall for research and Kathy Juddes of Childs Swab.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Bringing you the best

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Speaker 2: in markets, economics, and geopolitics. You can watch the show

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Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am to

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Speaker 2: nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.