WEBVTT - Conspiracy Theories, J.D. Vance, and Jury Duty

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<v Speaker 1>Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making

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<v Speaker 1>better decisions. I'm Maria Khannikova.

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<v Speaker 2>And I'm Nate Silver. Today we're going to be talking

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<v Speaker 2>about mostly politics again. There's a lot of news, including

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<v Speaker 2>an assassination attempt against former President Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>And yeah, and we'll be talking about Biden and Biden's

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<v Speaker 1>chances and the jd Vance nomination. And then Nate, you're

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<v Speaker 1>going to have a very personal take on something non political.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. I flew home earlier than I might have otherwise

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<v Speaker 2>in the World Chairs Poker because I had a jury summons,

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<v Speaker 2>which I've ducked in the past, and I didn't want

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<v Speaker 2>to duck again. But we'll talk about like a little

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<v Speaker 2>bit of the strategy about why you shouldn't lie to

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<v Speaker 2>like a.

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<v Speaker 3>Federal judge or I guess like a state judge in

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<v Speaker 3>this case.

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<v Speaker 1>That seems like smart policy. All right, So talking about,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, everything that's happened in the political world, I

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<v Speaker 1>think we obviously need to start with kind of the

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<v Speaker 1>most pressing news of the moment, which is that there

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<v Speaker 1>was an assassination attempt on the former President of the

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<v Speaker 1>United States Donald Trump during his rally in Pennsylvania. We

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<v Speaker 1>still don't know much about the shooter except he was right,

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<v Speaker 1>twenty years old, local, and that's about it.

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<v Speaker 2>Twenty years old, twenty years old was a registered Republican,

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<v Speaker 2>although had made at least one donation to a Democratic constituency,

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<v Speaker 2>to a democratic cause. I guess no, he's dead, so

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<v Speaker 2>he's not here to explain his motives. He might fit

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<v Speaker 2>into some sort of in cell if you know that

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<v Speaker 2>term stereotype a little bit. He seems not to have

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<v Speaker 2>had like a lot of social contacts or friends. But

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<v Speaker 2>we may never know very much about his motives. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>we do know, we we don't know.

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<v Speaker 3>Uh.

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<v Speaker 2>Look, I think the country has been lucky to avoid

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<v Speaker 2>something like this. I mean, for sure, talk a lot

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<v Speaker 2>on the show about like the vagaries of fate and

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<v Speaker 2>things like that. And a bullet apparently graized Trump's ear.

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<v Speaker 2>He apparently was looking at some uh some sign or

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<v Speaker 2>some whatever.

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<v Speaker 1>Irate He said it was an immigration graph, so he said,

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<v Speaker 1>border control, border control saved.

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<v Speaker 2>To always look at charts, right, that might literally save

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<v Speaker 2>your life. And he tilted his head to look at

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<v Speaker 2>the chart. The guy was apparently not a very good shot,

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<v Speaker 2>and therefore it just graves his ear.

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<v Speaker 3>I think we don't actually know that.

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<v Speaker 2>Much about like I mean, you know, we talk about

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<v Speaker 2>like President's not disclosing medical information, but an issue with Biden.

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<v Speaker 2>We also haven't really gotten any reports about like did

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<v Speaker 2>this like rupture his ear drum or something Trump, but

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<v Speaker 2>he seems at least more or less okay.

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<v Speaker 1>And after fighting spirits.

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<v Speaker 2>In fighting spirits, I mean, he had this iconic photo

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<v Speaker 2>that was so iconic that some Democrats think, oh, it

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<v Speaker 2>must have been staged. Right, It's like, give me a break,

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<v Speaker 2>And I.

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<v Speaker 1>Want to actually go back to that in one second.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk a little bit more. But I do, I

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<v Speaker 1>do want to touch a little bit on the psychology

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<v Speaker 1>of kind of the conspiracy theories around all of us.

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<v Speaker 3>Were gonna ask you about that?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, because because I think that it's I think

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<v Speaker 1>that's a really important point and the conspiracy theories are

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<v Speaker 1>going on on both sides. Did you want to finish

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<v Speaker 1>up your thought before we get into that. No.

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<v Speaker 2>Look, we are taping this on Wednesday, early afternoon, New

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<v Speaker 2>York time, Wednesday morning, Vegas time.

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<v Speaker 3>We don't really have a lot of polling.

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<v Speaker 2>I know it sounds crass talk about polling for how

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<v Speaker 2>it's affected the race, and we may never know because

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<v Speaker 2>what's happening this week is there's a Republican convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

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<v Speaker 2>Typically conventions it's like a big paid advertisement for your

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<v Speaker 2>party and so typically produces like a short lived bounce

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<v Speaker 2>in the polling. Trump has also nominated his vice presidential candidate,

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<v Speaker 2>Senator j. D. Vance of Ohio. There's a bunch of

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<v Speaker 2>stuff piling on top of each other. In other words,

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<v Speaker 2>what we can say is that President Biden trails and

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<v Speaker 2>the large majority of these polls, virtually all of the

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<v Speaker 2>nonpartisan polling and swing states and most of them, not

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<v Speaker 2>all of the national polls.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, in the short run, it will probably get worse.

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<v Speaker 3>But yeah, I mean.

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<v Speaker 2>Again, the contrast between Trump surviving this attack and raising

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<v Speaker 2>his fists and saying fight, fight, fight, versus Biden being

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<v Speaker 2>still quite feeble. There have been a bunch of more

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<v Speaker 2>public appearances by Biden. They've been mixed. When you say mixed,

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<v Speaker 2>it's a euphism for shitty usually, right. You know, he's

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<v Speaker 2>been better in some venues than others.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh best, by the way, and you know when he

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<v Speaker 1>was speaking in NATO and did a really good job

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<v Speaker 1>on f policy, He's still called Kamala VP Trump and

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<v Speaker 1>called Zelenski Putin and people say, oh, you know, you

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<v Speaker 1>mess up all the time. People always have these sorts

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<v Speaker 1>of gaffs. Yes, but right, like this is clearly taking

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<v Speaker 1>a lot out of him, and as we've said over

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<v Speaker 1>and over, it's only going to get worse. This is

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<v Speaker 1>you know, he he is pulled in and we can

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<v Speaker 1>see him fraying in those moments. And I think the

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<v Speaker 1>NATO appearance was one of his best.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>Look, I mean even in the prepared demarks he gave

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<v Speaker 2>after the assassination attempt, he said battle box instead of

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<v Speaker 2>ballot box repeatedly. And this is reading off I presume

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<v Speaker 2>a teleprompter. Look, you take some average performance and like

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<v Speaker 2>on his best days, Biden is like a B B plus, right,

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<v Speaker 2>and the worst is like well into f territory.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>And by the way, we're not getting that large saple

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<v Speaker 2>because he doesn't do that many events relative to like

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<v Speaker 2>another president always tried to increase the number recently, but

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<v Speaker 2>we have a large enough sample size to say that

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<v Speaker 2>like this is extremely mediocre at best and consistent with

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<v Speaker 2>the pattern of declining cognitive ability. I don't think there's

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<v Speaker 2>any other way to say that. I mean, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe by some weird coincience, he just can't speak very coherently.

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<v Speaker 2>But the other facilities are fine, right, I mean faculties, facilities, whatever.

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<v Speaker 2>Like maybe it's okay, but like he wants to be

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<v Speaker 2>present for another four years and it's just kind of

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, it's really like an emperor. This is a

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<v Speaker 2>title of a previous episode, right, It's like an emperor

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<v Speaker 2>has no close moment. It's plainly obvious that like he

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<v Speaker 2>has lost his fastball. He might have even lost his

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<v Speaker 2>change up. Right, he is like lobbying pitches up over

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<v Speaker 2>the center of the plate. And because we're a very

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<v Speaker 2>partisan country, I mean, he's gonna get whatever forty four

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<v Speaker 2>percent of the voter something in a three way race

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<v Speaker 2>with also three party candidates on the.

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<v Speaker 3>Ballot, and like maybe he could win.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know, right, I mean, he's not that that

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<v Speaker 2>that far behind in the polling. It's a problem for

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<v Speaker 2>him or any Democrat that like the electoral College favors Republicans.

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<v Speaker 2>But like it's hard to imagine another Democrat doing worse

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<v Speaker 2>than this, I guess, right, yeh, I mean, I you know,

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<v Speaker 2>I mean in a poll that came out this morning

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<v Speaker 2>from the Associated Press and the NRC, which is a

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<v Speaker 2>survey organization at the University of Caigo. Two thirds of

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<v Speaker 2>Democrats say he should be replaced. When two thirds of

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<v Speaker 2>your own party wants you out, I mean, I don't

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<v Speaker 2>think there's like any precedent for this. People can cite

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<v Speaker 2>Trump in twenty sixteen after the Access Hollywood tap, like,

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<v Speaker 2>but Republicans Democrats are different, and Republican voters were very

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<v Speaker 2>loyal to Trump. Democrats, or I think, are a little

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<v Speaker 2>bit more realistic apparently, except maybe the party leadership, which

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<v Speaker 2>is lying to itself and lying to the American public.

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<v Speaker 2>And there's like, there's no other way to put it, right,

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<v Speaker 2>It's some combination of lying and cowardice, two qualities that

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<v Speaker 2>I really dislike. Right, So, if you're at the ven

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<v Speaker 2>diagram of gutlessness and lying, then you know, I have

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<v Speaker 2>no respect for you. It's like a permanent we'll never

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<v Speaker 2>respect you a gain in your life if you pick

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<v Speaker 2>one right, tell us strategically, you know, lie once or twice, right,

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<v Speaker 2>and we've all lied in our life, right, or you

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<v Speaker 2>know whatever. But like in that if you're in that

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<v Speaker 2>overlap of being a coward, and a liar, then I

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<v Speaker 2>will never respect you again. And if I were a donor,

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<v Speaker 2>I would never want to ever give any money to

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<v Speaker 2>any Democrat as long as like the people that are

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<v Speaker 2>currently run the Democratic Party are in charge of the party.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, no, I mean I think that's fair. I think

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<v Speaker 1>that's fair, and we should definitely let's let's talk a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit more about the Democrats. But before we completely

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<v Speaker 1>pivot to that, let's do a little bit of a

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<v Speaker 1>recap on kind of the aftermath of the assassination attempt

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<v Speaker 1>on Trump, because I do think it's really important to

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<v Speaker 1>address the fact that we do have conspiracy theories emerging

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<v Speaker 1>on both sides. Right, you have Democrats saying, oh, look

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<v Speaker 1>at this photograph, this was stage. You have Republicans, I

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<v Speaker 1>mean mostly it's Democrats actually saying that this was this

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<v Speaker 1>was stage. But you have people saying that this was staged,

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<v Speaker 1>that it wasn't an actual attempt, that you know, how

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<v Speaker 1>you know, how did this gun man get here, blah

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<v Speaker 1>blah blah. And by the way, there were definite security lapses. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>we now know that people fucked up to allow this

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<v Speaker 1>gunman there. I think to say that it was staged

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<v Speaker 1>is just like absolutely ludicrous because of many reasons. But

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<v Speaker 1>first of all, if a bullet grazed his ear, do

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<v Speaker 1>you realize, like the level of precision of marksmanship that

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<v Speaker 1>you would have to have to make sure that it

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<v Speaker 1>grazed the ear and not something else. What if the

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<v Speaker 1>winds changed, What if, you know, last minute, something happened,

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<v Speaker 1>like you could kill the person that you're supposed to

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<v Speaker 1>just pretend to assassinate, and people in the crowd died. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>we have one death, we have critical injuries. So I

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<v Speaker 1>think that to call this fake is just absolutely disconnected

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<v Speaker 1>from reality. And yet we are seeing more and more

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<v Speaker 1>of these moments where conspiracy theories, conspiratorial type thinking is

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<v Speaker 1>gaining ascendence, and I think that that has actually that

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<v Speaker 1>pattern started during the first Trump presidency, because he is

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<v Speaker 1>someone who loves to kind of endorse conspiracy theories and say, oh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, this person did this, they meddled with this,

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<v Speaker 1>the election was stolen. There all these hidden forces and

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of the reasons why Trump appeals to voters

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<v Speaker 1>is actually a lot of the reasons why conspiracy theories

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<v Speaker 1>appeal to people's brains. So what we know about conspiracy

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<v Speaker 1>theory thinking is that First of all, when you're feeling

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<v Speaker 1>kind of out of control, when you're feeling disenfranchised, when

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<v Speaker 1>you're feeling you know, left out, like things are spirally

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<v Speaker 1>out of control, Conspiracy theories are amazing because either you

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<v Speaker 1>have to just say, Okay, shit happens and random bad

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<v Speaker 1>shit happens, and shit happens for no reason, or you

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<v Speaker 1>can say, there are these bad guys and there are

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<v Speaker 1>these bad forces, and they actually like have this whole

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<v Speaker 1>big thing, and that's why this is happening. Right, there's

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<v Speaker 1>someone to blame. I have a scapegoat. I can say

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<v Speaker 1>that this is the reason that bad things are happening

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<v Speaker 1>to me, This is the reason why I'm poor, why

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<v Speaker 1>I'm disenfranchised, Why this, Why that because there's this big

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<v Speaker 1>bad thing in the world. Whereas you know, the other

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<v Speaker 1>explanation that it's just random, it's just noise doesn't intuitively

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<v Speaker 1>appeal to the human brain. And there's also been you know,

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of work that shows connections between stress, anxiety,

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<v Speaker 1>all sorts of those types of feelings and conspiratorial thinking.

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<v Speaker 1>When you know, we talked in the past about some

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<v Speaker 1>of my research on why people fall for con artists,

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<v Speaker 1>and you actually see yeah, that ven diagram overlaps a

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<v Speaker 1>lot the people who fall for con artists and the

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<v Speaker 1>people who fall for conspiracy type thinking, because what we

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<v Speaker 1>said with con artists is that you find that people

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<v Speaker 1>when they're in moments of transition, uncertainty, change, anxiety, when

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<v Speaker 1>things are wrong in their life, they love the story,

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<v Speaker 1>the nice narrative that con artists offer, the hope that

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<v Speaker 1>they offer, and conspiracy theories. It's the exact same thing.

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<v Speaker 1>When you're in those types of moments in your life,

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<v Speaker 1>that's when you embrace them. That's when you say, oh,

0:12:06.644 --> 0:12:09.084
<v Speaker 1>you know, well this is happening and this is wrong.

0:12:09.484 --> 0:12:12.964
<v Speaker 1>Funny thing is here, you know, it's an irony here

0:12:13.004 --> 0:12:16.204
<v Speaker 1>that this type of thinking which is embraced by Republican

0:12:16.284 --> 0:12:19.804
<v Speaker 1>followers of Donald Trump and by don you know, stoked

0:12:19.804 --> 0:12:21.404
<v Speaker 1>by Donald Trump, that we see this now in the

0:12:21.404 --> 0:12:24.684
<v Speaker 1>Democrats who might be feeling disenfranchised, who might be feeling

0:12:24.724 --> 0:12:26.924
<v Speaker 1>like people aren't listening to them, and so who might

0:12:26.964 --> 0:12:29.084
<v Speaker 1>who might now be saying, oh, this is staged, and

0:12:29.124 --> 0:12:32.044
<v Speaker 1>so it's funny that it's actually bipartisan, this type of thing.

0:12:33.404 --> 0:12:36.964
<v Speaker 2>You know, you can't have a conspiracy without con I

0:12:37.004 --> 0:12:38.964
<v Speaker 2>guess right, I was gonna ask you about that.

0:12:39.444 --> 0:12:40.404
<v Speaker 3>No, and like and.

0:12:41.964 --> 0:12:46.444
<v Speaker 2>Probably among the like donor elite class, the biggest defender

0:12:46.484 --> 0:12:49.124
<v Speaker 2>of Biden has been Reid Hoffman, who was a founder

0:12:49.244 --> 0:12:53.724
<v Speaker 2>of LinkedIn. His chief strategist a guy named Dimitri. I

0:12:53.764 --> 0:12:55.804
<v Speaker 2>think it's Melhorne M E H L H O r

0:12:55.964 --> 0:12:59.164
<v Speaker 2>N send an email on like Saturday night saying, you know,

0:12:59.204 --> 0:13:01.524
<v Speaker 2>this is a Russian tactic. This is what Putin would do.

0:13:02.924 --> 0:13:05.164
<v Speaker 2>And I don't think it's a coincidence. Maybe it's a

0:13:05.164 --> 0:13:09.124
<v Speaker 2>little unfair, but like, but like you are denying basic

0:13:09.164 --> 0:13:12.764
<v Speaker 2>reac to say it's a good idea to nominate Joe Biden.

0:13:13.164 --> 0:13:14.364
<v Speaker 3>Like never mind even.

0:13:14.244 --> 0:13:18.084
<v Speaker 2>Like the political implications, like this guy shouldn't be president

0:13:18.164 --> 0:13:19.044
<v Speaker 2>for four more years.

0:13:19.204 --> 0:13:21.924
<v Speaker 3>It's just obvious you cannot speak consistently enough.

0:13:21.964 --> 0:13:25.164
<v Speaker 2>And so so you're selecting for and again, two thirds

0:13:25.164 --> 0:13:27.404
<v Speaker 2>of Democratic voters in some polls a little bit less,

0:13:27.484 --> 0:13:29.404
<v Speaker 2>you know, but half to two thirds, depending which pole

0:13:29.444 --> 0:13:29.844
<v Speaker 2>you look at.

0:13:30.044 --> 0:13:31.564
<v Speaker 3>I think the nomination should be replaced.

0:13:31.604 --> 0:13:35.444
<v Speaker 2>So you're you're you know, you're selecting for the one

0:13:35.804 --> 0:13:39.084
<v Speaker 2>third of the party that's like out of touch with reality,

0:13:39.124 --> 0:13:43.044
<v Speaker 2>I guess, But no, Look, I think as someone who

0:13:43.084 --> 0:13:45.444
<v Speaker 2>thinks a lot about as we both do about like

0:13:46.764 --> 0:13:50.364
<v Speaker 2>game theory and incentives. I mean, when you're the party

0:13:50.404 --> 0:13:52.964
<v Speaker 2>that says we are the righteous people, right, we are

0:13:53.004 --> 0:13:56.124
<v Speaker 2>the people that are speaking truth to power. And maybe

0:13:56.124 --> 0:13:58.124
<v Speaker 2>it was true five years ago, but when you when

0:13:58.164 --> 0:13:59.964
<v Speaker 2>you think that and you begin to act like that,

0:14:00.204 --> 0:14:03.244
<v Speaker 2>and then you begin to behave, kind of behave kind

0:14:03.284 --> 0:14:05.084
<v Speaker 2>of badly, when you're like, we're the party who is

0:14:05.124 --> 0:14:08.124
<v Speaker 2>on the side of justice and truth, and like, I

0:14:08.164 --> 0:14:11.284
<v Speaker 2>don't know, I mean, it's deeply disappointed by the way

0:14:11.284 --> 0:14:13.724
<v Speaker 2>I got in a fight with Jamie Harrison, who is

0:14:13.764 --> 0:14:16.844
<v Speaker 2>the head of the Democratic National Committee right out of

0:14:16.884 --> 0:14:17.324
<v Speaker 2>the DNC.

0:14:17.724 --> 0:14:20.324
<v Speaker 1>I mean, where the who looks worse?

0:14:21.524 --> 0:14:23.684
<v Speaker 2>I think he does because I'm just a fucking blogger, right,

0:14:23.724 --> 0:14:26.884
<v Speaker 2>I'm just a little brawler blogger and his job. It's

0:14:26.924 --> 0:14:30.124
<v Speaker 2>the week of the RNC instead of driving messing about

0:14:30.124 --> 0:14:31.644
<v Speaker 2>the DNC. And the reason I gotten into the fight

0:14:31.724 --> 0:14:35.244
<v Speaker 2>is that he is lying and the Democratic Party is

0:14:35.324 --> 0:14:38.404
<v Speaker 2>lying about this need to advance a date at which

0:14:38.444 --> 0:14:40.204
<v Speaker 2>Joe Biden is nominated.

0:14:41.364 --> 0:14:44.324
<v Speaker 3>So the convention is in mid August. What is it like?

0:14:44.324 --> 0:14:46.444
<v Speaker 2>I think the twenty second ish of August is like

0:14:46.524 --> 0:14:52.204
<v Speaker 2>the date, right, somewhere around then. So, however, they are

0:14:52.204 --> 0:14:54.564
<v Speaker 2>claiming that they had to have this virtual role call

0:14:55.044 --> 0:14:58.764
<v Speaker 2>to nominate Biden originally in like a week, and now

0:14:58.804 --> 0:15:00.684
<v Speaker 2>they're pushing it back to August seventh.

0:15:01.044 --> 0:15:03.764
<v Speaker 3>That's just not true, right, It's a lie. Right.

0:15:03.804 --> 0:15:06.324
<v Speaker 2>So the reason is that originally the state of Ohio

0:15:07.284 --> 0:15:10.804
<v Speaker 2>had a law that said you have to nominate your

0:15:10.804 --> 0:15:14.084
<v Speaker 2>canap by August seventh, which is before the Democratic Convention. Right,

0:15:15.364 --> 0:15:18.724
<v Speaker 2>how well that law would have held up in reality,

0:15:18.764 --> 0:15:20.324
<v Speaker 2>I'm not so sure. It would have been subject I

0:15:20.324 --> 0:15:23.644
<v Speaker 2>think to a lot of constitutional and legal challenges. But

0:15:23.724 --> 0:15:26.164
<v Speaker 2>they changed that law and said, Okay, that was stupid.

0:15:27.324 --> 0:15:30.044
<v Speaker 2>Now you have until September first instead, or you have

0:15:30.164 --> 0:15:32.484
<v Speaker 2>you know, there's plenty of time whoever you nominate at

0:15:32.524 --> 0:15:34.964
<v Speaker 2>the convention. It is, by the way, August twenty second

0:15:35.044 --> 0:15:38.404
<v Speaker 2>is a last day will be printed on ballots in Ohio.

0:15:40.164 --> 0:15:43.924
<v Speaker 2>Democrats are claiming that, or Jamie Harrison's claiming, and the

0:15:44.004 --> 0:15:46.444
<v Speaker 2>DNC is claiming that, like, oh, you never know what

0:15:46.484 --> 0:15:48.804
<v Speaker 2>Republicans will do next, and so therefore we have to

0:15:48.804 --> 0:15:51.564
<v Speaker 2>still have this virtual role call ahead of the convention.

0:15:51.724 --> 0:15:55.284
<v Speaker 2>When election law experts say this isn't true, that like

0:15:55.404 --> 0:15:58.804
<v Speaker 2>experts in the primary process have literally called this misinformation.

0:16:00.324 --> 0:16:01.844
<v Speaker 2>I mean, and by the way, it's also you talk

0:16:01.884 --> 0:16:03.964
<v Speaker 2>about like lying and cowardly in the overlap, Well, the

0:16:04.044 --> 0:16:07.044
<v Speaker 2>DNC is in that very much, in that Venn diagram

0:16:07.124 --> 0:16:11.404
<v Speaker 2>of being cowardly and lying to people, because like, first

0:16:11.404 --> 0:16:14.244
<v Speaker 2>of all, the Democratic Party sets its own rules, and

0:16:14.244 --> 0:16:17.204
<v Speaker 2>the rules say that you nominate the candidate at the

0:16:17.204 --> 0:16:19.324
<v Speaker 2>convention and have a vote of the delegates, who are

0:16:19.364 --> 0:16:22.004
<v Speaker 2>by the way, like literally dealt into the process. In

0:16:22.044 --> 0:16:25.724
<v Speaker 2>most states when you vote, if you read the fine print, right,

0:16:26.204 --> 0:16:29.644
<v Speaker 2>it actually says you are voting for delegates to the

0:16:29.684 --> 0:16:30.604
<v Speaker 2>Democratic Convention.

0:16:31.004 --> 0:16:32.364
<v Speaker 3>You're not voting for Joe Biden.

0:16:32.484 --> 0:16:34.244
<v Speaker 2>Technically, I mean, that's like kind of the beauty contest

0:16:34.324 --> 0:16:36.684
<v Speaker 2>aspect of it, right, You're voting for delegates. In some

0:16:36.724 --> 0:16:38.884
<v Speaker 2>states you actually have to check the circle the box

0:16:38.924 --> 0:16:39.844
<v Speaker 2>for the names of delegates.

0:16:39.844 --> 0:16:41.364
<v Speaker 3>In some you don't. It's automatic.

0:16:42.164 --> 0:16:45.044
<v Speaker 2>But like that's the process that's in place, is that

0:16:45.084 --> 0:16:49.044
<v Speaker 2>you have Joe Biden delegates. And in most states, Democratic

0:16:49.044 --> 0:16:52.364
<v Speaker 2>delegates are not legally bound to vote for the candidate

0:16:52.404 --> 0:16:55.844
<v Speaker 2>that they that they were selected for. Right, they have

0:16:55.884 --> 0:16:58.044
<v Speaker 2>a conscious clause that says if you think, in good conscience,

0:16:58.084 --> 0:17:01.204
<v Speaker 2>you can't nominate this candidate, then then you can pick

0:17:01.244 --> 0:17:05.084
<v Speaker 2>somebody else. If there's no majority on the first ballot,

0:17:05.084 --> 0:17:08.204
<v Speaker 2>then also super delegates get involved, are who are not

0:17:08.244 --> 0:17:12.124
<v Speaker 2>necessarily Biden loyals, and they've been trying to circummit this

0:17:12.204 --> 0:17:14.884
<v Speaker 2>process and like and like lying about the need for

0:17:14.964 --> 0:17:17.884
<v Speaker 2>about a law that was changed and which anyway, you

0:17:17.924 --> 0:17:19.724
<v Speaker 2>shouldn't let the Republican Party if you're a Democrat, if

0:17:19.724 --> 0:17:22.804
<v Speaker 2>you're supposed to defend democracy, you shouldn't let the Republican

0:17:22.804 --> 0:17:27.124
<v Speaker 2>Party dictate your terms. I mean that's like bad strategy.

0:17:28.564 --> 0:17:32.244
<v Speaker 2>And I'm not sure, like who are they trying to bluff?

0:17:32.284 --> 0:17:34.244
<v Speaker 2>I mean, they're they're not just liars. They're like the

0:17:34.244 --> 0:17:36.284
<v Speaker 2>stupidest fucking liars I've ever fucking met in my life.

0:17:36.324 --> 0:17:39.244
<v Speaker 2>They're running a bad, obvious bluff and they and they

0:17:39.444 --> 0:17:42.204
<v Speaker 2>have such a short time horizon, meaning they're trying to

0:17:42.204 --> 0:17:44.884
<v Speaker 2>win the news cycle and not thinking about like, well,

0:17:44.924 --> 0:17:47.484
<v Speaker 2>you're just kind of digging yourself a deeper hole and

0:17:47.524 --> 0:17:52.164
<v Speaker 2>like torturing your credibility later on. It just it's offensive

0:17:52.204 --> 0:17:55.284
<v Speaker 2>to me, yeah, now as an American voter, but also

0:17:55.324 --> 0:17:58.604
<v Speaker 2>as like someone who cares about like strategy, like what

0:17:58.644 --> 0:17:59.404
<v Speaker 2>are they doing?

0:17:59.844 --> 0:18:02.644
<v Speaker 1>No, I mean they're playing a very short game, which

0:18:03.404 --> 0:18:06.764
<v Speaker 1>you know people people ask me sometimes about you know,

0:18:06.844 --> 0:18:09.244
<v Speaker 1>Oh well, since I'm working on a book about cheating, right,

0:18:09.844 --> 0:18:13.004
<v Speaker 1>why why don't people like cheat more in these types

0:18:13.044 --> 0:18:15.924
<v Speaker 1>of situations where they're talking about like poker or something

0:18:15.964 --> 0:18:20.044
<v Speaker 1>like that. And I always say, well, you can't. You know,

0:18:20.284 --> 0:18:21.964
<v Speaker 1>you can think about, Okay, you can cheat in one

0:18:22.044 --> 0:18:26.204
<v Speaker 1>game and you know, make off with however much money. However,

0:18:27.724 --> 0:18:31.364
<v Speaker 1>you need to consider reputational costs and what this actually means.

0:18:31.684 --> 0:18:34.444
<v Speaker 1>If you get caught, if you develop that reputation, that's it, right,

0:18:34.484 --> 0:18:37.244
<v Speaker 1>Like you're done. You will never you will never be

0:18:37.284 --> 0:18:39.444
<v Speaker 1>able to be in this ecosystem again, or at least

0:18:39.484 --> 0:18:40.364
<v Speaker 1>that's how it should be.

0:18:44.604 --> 0:18:57.444
<v Speaker 4>We'll be back in just a minute now.

0:18:57.764 --> 0:19:00.804
<v Speaker 1>The reason that sometimes cheating does happen, and right now,

0:19:01.044 --> 0:19:03.084
<v Speaker 1>I know we're talking about lying versus cheating, but there

0:19:03.084 --> 0:19:06.364
<v Speaker 1>are similar types of things. When you're talking about game theory,

0:19:06.444 --> 0:19:08.724
<v Speaker 1>right when you break the rules, when you when you

0:19:08.764 --> 0:19:12.204
<v Speaker 1>misrepresent what's going on. Is if you think that you're

0:19:12.244 --> 0:19:14.404
<v Speaker 1>going to be able to get away with it, and

0:19:14.444 --> 0:19:18.444
<v Speaker 1>that there will be enough kind of gray area around

0:19:18.724 --> 0:19:21.044
<v Speaker 1>whether or not you actually did it. And if you

0:19:21.084 --> 0:19:23.884
<v Speaker 1>think that there aren't going to be repercussions, even if

0:19:24.244 --> 0:19:28.044
<v Speaker 1>it turns out that people did catch you cheating, right,

0:19:28.124 --> 0:19:30.804
<v Speaker 1>even if you know they say, okay, yes I cheated,

0:19:30.804 --> 0:19:33.084
<v Speaker 1>but I'm changed now, I'm better, and there are no

0:19:33.164 --> 0:19:36.844
<v Speaker 1>repercussions and you're allowed back into the community. Then that's

0:19:36.884 --> 0:19:40.124
<v Speaker 1>when cheating becomes profitable. And when you realize, Okay, you know,

0:19:40.924 --> 0:19:43.444
<v Speaker 1>in this one off, I cheated. I defected. If we're

0:19:43.444 --> 0:19:47.764
<v Speaker 1>talking game theoretical terms, right, I defected, I made I

0:19:47.844 --> 0:19:49.604
<v Speaker 1>made the payoff. You know, I was the bad guy.

0:19:49.804 --> 0:19:52.404
<v Speaker 1>But then they let me play the game again. They said, okay,

0:19:52.404 --> 0:19:55.164
<v Speaker 1>we forgive you. We believe that you're not going to

0:19:55.244 --> 0:19:58.324
<v Speaker 1>do it again, and you can keep playing. Then that

0:19:58.564 --> 0:20:02.644
<v Speaker 1>actually incentivizes it. So I'm wondering, Nate, do you think

0:20:02.684 --> 0:20:06.724
<v Speaker 1>that that sort of dynamic might possibly be in play

0:20:06.804 --> 0:20:07.724
<v Speaker 1>in their thinking here?

0:20:09.164 --> 0:20:09.364
<v Speaker 3>No?

0:20:09.404 --> 0:20:12.204
<v Speaker 2>Oh, because I think if Biden loses, then they're gonna

0:20:12.244 --> 0:20:16.004
<v Speaker 2>be incredible recriminations and like the people associated with it

0:20:16.044 --> 0:20:18.924
<v Speaker 2>will be like I mean, look, famously, it's hard to

0:20:18.964 --> 0:20:22.124
<v Speaker 2>get permanently kicked out of a party, but like, look,

0:20:22.164 --> 0:20:26.004
<v Speaker 2>people have like for literally two years been saying this

0:20:26.084 --> 0:20:30.164
<v Speaker 2>might be a bad idea to renominate Biden, but particularly

0:20:30.204 --> 0:20:32.004
<v Speaker 2>since the debate, right, this will be like the most

0:20:32.684 --> 0:20:36.964
<v Speaker 2>widely predicted slow motion car crash and political history, and

0:20:37.004 --> 0:20:40.004
<v Speaker 2>the people that are responsible for it will Again I'm

0:20:40.044 --> 0:20:43.924
<v Speaker 2>cynical about the Democratic Party and the Republican Party certainly,

0:20:45.244 --> 0:20:47.804
<v Speaker 2>but like, I think that, like, if you're one of

0:20:47.804 --> 0:20:50.804
<v Speaker 2>these people, if you're Jamie Harrison or Ron Klain who's

0:20:50.844 --> 0:20:53.244
<v Speaker 2>one of the chief strategists for Biden, or these other people, right,

0:20:53.564 --> 0:20:55.724
<v Speaker 2>I think you're gonna be remembered by history, or at

0:20:55.804 --> 0:20:59.884
<v Speaker 2>least by Democrats in history, as a villain. So I'm

0:20:59.924 --> 0:21:03.564
<v Speaker 2>going to offer amnesty to Jamie Harrison or Ron Klain

0:21:03.604 --> 0:21:09.724
<v Speaker 2>and whatever else. Renounce this horrible decision you're making. Come

0:21:09.764 --> 0:21:13.044
<v Speaker 2>on this program and renounce it, or come on and

0:21:13.084 --> 0:21:15.244
<v Speaker 2>like and let's have an actual conversation and have an

0:21:15.284 --> 0:21:19.604
<v Speaker 2>adult conversation and a real conversation about strategy, right, and

0:21:19.644 --> 0:21:21.884
<v Speaker 2>not lie to people. Come on this program, and then

0:21:21.964 --> 0:21:24.924
<v Speaker 2>I will promise not to write mean tweets about you

0:21:24.964 --> 0:21:25.444
<v Speaker 2>ever again.

0:21:26.244 --> 0:21:29.684
<v Speaker 1>Yes, and the only F bombs will be in conversation

0:21:30.644 --> 0:21:30.884
<v Speaker 1>and a.

0:21:31.004 --> 0:21:35.364
<v Speaker 3>Very organic yes organic No.

0:21:35.444 --> 0:21:37.964
<v Speaker 1>I mean I think I don't know, Like it feels

0:21:37.964 --> 0:21:40.804
<v Speaker 1>like every single episode these days, you and I are

0:21:40.844 --> 0:21:44.804
<v Speaker 1>talking about sunk cost fallacies, but like once. But it's

0:21:44.884 --> 0:21:48.924
<v Speaker 1>just we're seeing it over and over, just like what

0:21:48.924 --> 0:21:51.484
<v Speaker 1>you're saying right now, come on and kind of renounce it.

0:21:51.484 --> 0:21:54.444
<v Speaker 1>It does not mean that you know you were an idiot.

0:21:54.484 --> 0:21:58.724
<v Speaker 1>It means that you're being smart now. Information changes and

0:21:58.764 --> 0:22:02.044
<v Speaker 1>you have to change your decision when the information set

0:22:02.124 --> 0:22:04.604
<v Speaker 1>tells you that you need to change your decision. That's

0:22:04.684 --> 0:22:06.924
<v Speaker 1>the smart thing to do. That's the responsible thing to do.

0:22:07.164 --> 0:22:09.284
<v Speaker 1>That's the intelligent thing to do. It makes you look good.

0:22:09.644 --> 0:22:12.884
<v Speaker 1>It does not make you look weak. And this, this

0:22:12.964 --> 0:22:16.684
<v Speaker 1>whole you know, this whole thing is about being afraid

0:22:16.724 --> 0:22:19.324
<v Speaker 1>to look weak. And I think that that's something that's

0:22:19.684 --> 0:22:22.284
<v Speaker 1>uniting the Democrats who are afraid to kind of speak

0:22:22.324 --> 0:22:27.084
<v Speaker 1>out more. It's uniting Biden in being afraid to step down.

0:22:27.484 --> 0:22:30.324
<v Speaker 1>Everyone is afraid that, oh, this will make me look

0:22:30.404 --> 0:22:33.884
<v Speaker 1>like less of a man. Sorry, but it is a

0:22:33.964 --> 0:22:36.524
<v Speaker 1>very masculine thing to do that, even though you know

0:22:36.644 --> 0:22:40.364
<v Speaker 1>RBG yet we talked about females doing similar things, but

0:22:40.444 --> 0:22:44.044
<v Speaker 1>it is often like a very macho thing, Like I

0:22:44.164 --> 0:22:46.604
<v Speaker 1>do not want to look weak. I do not want

0:22:46.684 --> 0:22:49.644
<v Speaker 1>to look like I'm wishy washy changing my mind, et cetera.

0:22:50.444 --> 0:22:54.564
<v Speaker 1>And that actually is what looks weak. And sometimes the

0:22:54.684 --> 0:22:57.564
<v Speaker 1>much stronger thing is saying, okay, you know, time to

0:22:57.644 --> 0:22:59.684
<v Speaker 1>time to change my mind, time to admit I was wrong.

0:23:00.084 --> 0:23:02.484
<v Speaker 1>And it takes, you know, it takes a lot of

0:23:02.524 --> 0:23:06.364
<v Speaker 1>guts to say I was wrong. You know, I'm sorry,

0:23:06.844 --> 0:23:10.524
<v Speaker 1>Mia culpa. Let's let's move on from this playing field.

0:23:10.724 --> 0:23:12.924
<v Speaker 1>But I think that that needs to happen. But Nate,

0:23:13.004 --> 0:23:17.004
<v Speaker 1>I'm actually, as we get into mid July now closer

0:23:17.004 --> 0:23:20.484
<v Speaker 1>and closer to August, like I'm starting to I don't

0:23:20.484 --> 0:23:23.324
<v Speaker 1>know if despair is the right word, but like it's

0:23:23.564 --> 0:23:26.404
<v Speaker 1>the odds of Biden stepping aside to me seem to

0:23:26.444 --> 0:23:29.804
<v Speaker 1>be going down, at least in my own personal mind.

0:23:30.564 --> 0:23:33.724
<v Speaker 1>I'm curious what your personal take is on this. Are

0:23:33.764 --> 0:23:37.004
<v Speaker 1>you are you seeing are you still? Are you still

0:23:37.084 --> 0:23:39.684
<v Speaker 1>much more confident than I am that Biden will step aside?

0:23:39.804 --> 0:23:41.964
<v Speaker 1>Or are you losing a little confidence? As well as

0:23:41.964 --> 0:23:44.364
<v Speaker 1>partly closer and closer if.

0:23:44.204 --> 0:23:46.644
<v Speaker 2>You go to Polymarket, which I should disclose I am

0:23:46.684 --> 0:23:49.164
<v Speaker 2>kind of proudly an advisory to Polymarket, but it is

0:23:49.204 --> 0:23:53.804
<v Speaker 2>the most robust of the exchanges. Biden has a thirty

0:23:53.924 --> 0:23:59.164
<v Speaker 2>seven seven percent chance of dropping out. I think I'd

0:23:59.204 --> 0:24:02.244
<v Speaker 2>still buy that. I think i'd probably put it at

0:24:02.244 --> 0:24:04.124
<v Speaker 2>closer to fifty to fifty. But as you were implying, Maria,

0:24:04.164 --> 0:24:06.724
<v Speaker 2>like I was above fifty to fifty, and maybe that

0:24:07.564 --> 0:24:12.444
<v Speaker 2>maybe that like concedes to much rationality to the Democratic Party.

0:24:12.604 --> 0:24:15.044
<v Speaker 2>But like, yeah, what's like kind of the the catalyst.

0:24:15.084 --> 0:24:17.924
<v Speaker 2>You wouldn't expect it to come this week because it

0:24:17.964 --> 0:24:21.284
<v Speaker 2>is like the RNC. It's a little bit weird to

0:24:21.364 --> 0:24:24.444
<v Speaker 2>be like Jimmy Harrison off message and fighting with people.

0:24:24.564 --> 0:24:26.884
<v Speaker 2>I'm not a Democrat, but like fighting with people who

0:24:27.684 --> 0:24:30.164
<v Speaker 2>would ordinarily be sympathetic to you when the other party's

0:24:30.164 --> 0:24:32.004
<v Speaker 2>having it's conventioned. You want a message that like jd

0:24:32.124 --> 0:24:34.124
<v Speaker 2>Vance is this guy that's not very good, not many

0:24:34.164 --> 0:24:38.724
<v Speaker 2>whatever else. I think next week is kind of I

0:24:38.764 --> 0:24:42.204
<v Speaker 2>wouldn't say, like the last straw, because until August twenty second,

0:24:42.284 --> 0:24:44.484
<v Speaker 2>or if they moved in earlier August seventh or whatever

0:24:44.484 --> 0:24:46.564
<v Speaker 2>it is, right and even after that, by the way,

0:24:47.684 --> 0:24:50.524
<v Speaker 2>the candidate, like if Biden dies, if Biden's dominated August

0:24:50.564 --> 0:24:53.604
<v Speaker 2>twenty second and dies the next day, August twenty third,

0:24:54.084 --> 0:24:57.564
<v Speaker 2>you can still have the RN or the DNC rather

0:24:57.844 --> 0:25:00.084
<v Speaker 2>replace the candidate, and by that point it would still

0:25:00.084 --> 0:25:03.204
<v Speaker 2>be time to like print up new ballots. By the way,

0:25:03.204 --> 0:25:05.764
<v Speaker 2>if you're one of these Democrats who like is like, well,

0:25:05.804 --> 0:25:08.164
<v Speaker 2>whin Spiden's nomine you'll have to like root for him

0:25:08.164 --> 0:25:09.764
<v Speaker 2>and point out like, no, don't do that, can't you

0:25:09.804 --> 0:25:11.724
<v Speaker 2>can't do that. You're playing You're playing a long game here.

0:25:11.764 --> 0:25:14.324
<v Speaker 2>I'm gonna notice and I will send me in tweets

0:25:14.364 --> 0:25:19.124
<v Speaker 2>about people that like that, like have been team replaced Biden,

0:25:19.164 --> 0:25:20.604
<v Speaker 2>and then all of a sudden they say, well, we

0:25:20.684 --> 0:25:22.364
<v Speaker 2>have to defend that. It's like, no, you don't want

0:25:22.364 --> 0:25:27.124
<v Speaker 2>to bet behavior that's this bad and that's just dishonest.

0:25:27.244 --> 0:25:31.764
<v Speaker 1>Right yeah, well let's let's uh. In terms of people

0:25:31.804 --> 0:25:34.564
<v Speaker 1>who were you know, replaced Biden and now Team Biden,

0:25:34.884 --> 0:25:38.164
<v Speaker 1>I think we have a very huge example of something

0:25:38.204 --> 0:25:41.644
<v Speaker 1>similar on the Republican side, where the nominee for VP

0:25:42.524 --> 0:25:46.164
<v Speaker 1>jd Vance was team Never Trump and then and then

0:25:46.284 --> 0:25:50.564
<v Speaker 1>became the vice presidential nominee and seems like he might

0:25:50.564 --> 0:25:54.084
<v Speaker 1>potentially be like a true believer convert, which are your

0:25:54.164 --> 0:25:56.924
<v Speaker 1>your best allies? I saw a cartoon, which to me

0:25:57.924 --> 0:26:01.044
<v Speaker 1>just really summed it up. It was a cartoon of JD.

0:26:01.164 --> 0:26:06.284
<v Speaker 1>Vance and the caption said something like, yes, sir, I'm

0:26:06.324 --> 0:26:10.004
<v Speaker 1>so sorry that I compared you to America's Hitler and

0:26:10.364 --> 0:26:13.004
<v Speaker 1>so relieved that you took it as a compliment, And

0:26:13.764 --> 0:26:16.604
<v Speaker 1>that just about just about summed it up perfectly.

0:26:17.364 --> 0:26:19.804
<v Speaker 2>So we're god because like in another world, like JD.

0:26:19.924 --> 0:26:22.404
<v Speaker 2>Vance would be hosting a podcast or something, right.

0:26:22.404 --> 0:26:25.084
<v Speaker 1>Absolutely, absolutely. It's so funny by the way, when people

0:26:25.084 --> 0:26:26.844
<v Speaker 1>are like, oh, he was such a natural speaker at

0:26:26.844 --> 0:26:28.724
<v Speaker 1>the convention, I'm like, yeah, no, shit, like that's what

0:26:28.844 --> 0:26:31.444
<v Speaker 1>he used to do, right, Like he was a best

0:26:31.444 --> 0:26:34.924
<v Speaker 1>selling author who who was kind of this pundit and

0:26:35.564 --> 0:26:38.884
<v Speaker 1>ended up, you know, being able to win a senatorial

0:26:38.924 --> 0:26:42.684
<v Speaker 1>seat with zero experience. I mean, whose first political office

0:26:42.844 --> 0:26:45.764
<v Speaker 1>is senate? Is you a senate? Like how often does

0:26:45.804 --> 0:26:48.284
<v Speaker 1>that happen? I actually don't know the answer to that 's.

0:26:48.524 --> 0:26:51.484
<v Speaker 2>Like it's pretty rare because we you know, I've actually

0:26:51.564 --> 0:26:55.244
<v Speaker 2>modeled congressional races and there's a variable for like what

0:26:55.324 --> 0:26:57.524
<v Speaker 2>elected office have you held before. There's like a four

0:26:57.604 --> 0:27:00.564
<v Speaker 2>tier system, right and jd Vance is in tier zero.

0:27:00.724 --> 0:27:02.484
<v Speaker 2>He has not held elected office before. I think he

0:27:02.524 --> 0:27:04.204
<v Speaker 2>hadn't run for elected office before.

0:27:05.884 --> 0:27:07.604
<v Speaker 3>I'm not sure what you think, Like I do think.

0:27:07.484 --> 0:27:12.604
<v Speaker 2>Like objectively unquote, he's you know, in the certainly upper

0:27:12.724 --> 0:27:17.204
<v Speaker 2>tier of like the Q spectrum, I guess, but I

0:27:17.204 --> 0:27:19.964
<v Speaker 2>don't know. I think someone who's very smart and very

0:27:20.964 --> 0:27:23.684
<v Speaker 2>craven maybe is not the best.

0:27:24.164 --> 0:27:26.324
<v Speaker 1>No, I mean I think that's no. I think that

0:27:26.324 --> 0:27:28.364
<v Speaker 1>that's actually very dangerous. You know who else is very

0:27:28.444 --> 0:27:31.804
<v Speaker 1>very smart and in the upper echelon of IQ skills

0:27:32.244 --> 0:27:36.964
<v Speaker 1>Vladimir Putin, Right, So he was also someone who people thought, oh,

0:27:37.004 --> 0:27:39.764
<v Speaker 1>he's not serious, he's just using this as like, you know,

0:27:39.844 --> 0:27:42.604
<v Speaker 1>he doesn't actually believe all this stuff, like let's install

0:27:42.684 --> 0:27:46.084
<v Speaker 1>him to power in Russia and he's going to be

0:27:46.164 --> 0:27:50.044
<v Speaker 1>easily pliable and malleable and do what we say and hahaha, right,

0:27:50.164 --> 0:27:53.724
<v Speaker 1>jokes on you, like, absolutely fucking not. He was exactly

0:27:53.764 --> 0:27:56.364
<v Speaker 1>what you know what he is now, and he was

0:27:56.404 --> 0:27:58.684
<v Speaker 1>just very smart and playing the very very long game.

0:27:58.844 --> 0:28:01.564
<v Speaker 1>And I actually see TRACE's advance in that. I think

0:28:01.564 --> 0:28:03.684
<v Speaker 1>he's very smart. I think he's playing the long game.

0:28:04.004 --> 0:28:07.884
<v Speaker 1>I think he is absolutely devoid of a moral center

0:28:08.684 --> 0:28:12.564
<v Speaker 1>and he wants power, and that is very very scary,

0:28:13.204 --> 0:28:15.964
<v Speaker 1>and that is something where he overlaps with Donald Trump.

0:28:16.164 --> 0:28:18.844
<v Speaker 1>I think they're both. This is why, you know, when

0:28:18.924 --> 0:28:22.004
<v Speaker 1>I've talked before about Donald Trump as a con artist,

0:28:22.124 --> 0:28:23.684
<v Speaker 1>said what motivates conn artists?

0:28:23.724 --> 0:28:24.044
<v Speaker 3>Power?

0:28:24.244 --> 0:28:28.164
<v Speaker 1>Control, control over other people. That's the that's the main motivation.

0:28:28.484 --> 0:28:31.964
<v Speaker 1>And I think that that's what Trump sees Advance. That's

0:28:32.124 --> 0:28:35.684
<v Speaker 1>somewhere where they completely overlap. And that's a very scary ticket,

0:28:35.764 --> 0:28:38.924
<v Speaker 1>especially since you know jd. Vance is young, and he

0:28:39.164 --> 0:28:41.724
<v Speaker 1>is a very good speaker, and he is good at

0:28:41.764 --> 0:28:45.564
<v Speaker 1>appealing to people, and so you know, if Trump wins,

0:28:46.284 --> 0:28:50.604
<v Speaker 1>the chance of Jadvan's becoming the next president is not low.

0:28:51.364 --> 0:28:55.004
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I know people talk about the implications for this November,

0:28:55.044 --> 0:28:58.804
<v Speaker 2>but like if you're a VP nominee for a major party,

0:28:58.844 --> 0:29:01.444
<v Speaker 2>particularly one that is more likely than not to win

0:29:01.444 --> 0:29:03.524
<v Speaker 2>this election, then and there's like a you know, there's

0:29:03.524 --> 0:29:06.004
<v Speaker 2>like a fifty to fifty is chance that Jadvan's become

0:29:06.644 --> 0:29:08.644
<v Speaker 2>president at some point. By the way, the first person

0:29:08.724 --> 0:29:11.404
<v Speaker 2>on a presidential take get nominated, who's like, who's younger

0:29:11.444 --> 0:29:11.724
<v Speaker 2>than me?

0:29:11.964 --> 0:29:12.124
<v Speaker 3>Right?

0:29:12.164 --> 0:29:15.564
<v Speaker 2>When when Tom Brady retired, right, he was the one

0:29:15.684 --> 0:29:17.644
<v Speaker 2>athlete who was like older than me, Like that was

0:29:17.964 --> 0:29:21.284
<v Speaker 2>that was depressing. And now you have a nominee who's

0:29:21.324 --> 0:29:25.164
<v Speaker 2>younger and shorter than me for vice president in the Republican.

0:29:24.804 --> 0:29:27.964
<v Speaker 3>Party five six, five nine ish.

0:29:27.364 --> 0:29:29.004
<v Speaker 1>Well he's five six, he's shorter than me.

0:29:29.924 --> 0:29:32.524
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, no, and there have not been very many short

0:29:32.524 --> 0:29:36.004
<v Speaker 2>presidents elected recently. We can debate whether that's signal or noise,

0:29:36.124 --> 0:29:39.924
<v Speaker 2>I suppose, but but yeah, and also you kind of

0:29:39.964 --> 0:29:41.524
<v Speaker 2>like you kind of become.

0:29:43.124 --> 0:29:43.524
<v Speaker 3>The con.

0:29:43.644 --> 0:29:45.404
<v Speaker 2>It's some I mean, I I don't want to say

0:29:45.404 --> 0:29:47.484
<v Speaker 2>he's a con, but like it's hard to maintain, like

0:29:47.884 --> 0:29:49.564
<v Speaker 2>I don't want to play this role as character.

0:29:50.404 --> 0:29:52.924
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I don't think. I don't think it's possible. And

0:29:53.044 --> 0:29:57.124
<v Speaker 1>I think that he has shown himself capable of these

0:29:57.564 --> 0:30:00.364
<v Speaker 1>absolute shifts by the way, he had a section of

0:30:00.404 --> 0:30:03.924
<v Speaker 1>his website which was like I'm one hundred percent anti abortion,

0:30:04.644 --> 0:30:07.564
<v Speaker 1>no abortions ever, blah blah blah, like went on and on,

0:30:07.804 --> 0:30:10.724
<v Speaker 1>and it seems that that section was deleted, and so

0:30:11.324 --> 0:30:13.204
<v Speaker 1>you know that I don't know if it's still deleted

0:30:13.284 --> 0:30:15.364
<v Speaker 1>or if it's back up. That's why that's why I'm

0:30:15.364 --> 0:30:19.724
<v Speaker 1>padging this. But someone who who is basically capable of

0:30:19.764 --> 0:30:22.804
<v Speaker 1>these like complete pivots in the moment. You know, Trump

0:30:22.844 --> 0:30:26.484
<v Speaker 1>isn't America's next hitler. Donald Trump is the savior you know,

0:30:26.564 --> 0:30:30.324
<v Speaker 1>these types of things. Is someone who's incredibly dangerous because

0:30:30.364 --> 0:30:35.004
<v Speaker 1>it's someone who really really has, as I said, no

0:30:35.084 --> 0:30:39.724
<v Speaker 1>moral center, but also just no conviction, no self other

0:30:39.884 --> 0:30:42.564
<v Speaker 1>than you know, what self do I need to be

0:30:42.964 --> 0:30:45.484
<v Speaker 1>to put myself in the position of greatest power?

0:30:45.804 --> 0:30:45.964
<v Speaker 3>Right?

0:30:46.044 --> 0:30:47.684
<v Speaker 1>What do I need to do? What face do I

0:30:47.724 --> 0:30:50.244
<v Speaker 1>need to put on? The ultimate con artist, kind of

0:30:50.284 --> 0:30:53.204
<v Speaker 1>the impostor the person who can be anyone to anyone

0:30:53.284 --> 0:30:56.604
<v Speaker 1>depending on what's going on. But the fact that he

0:30:56.684 --> 0:30:59.284
<v Speaker 1>did have these you know, one hundred percent anti abortion,

0:30:59.324 --> 0:31:01.644
<v Speaker 1>et cetera, et cetera, I think does show kind of

0:31:01.764 --> 0:31:04.604
<v Speaker 1>some of his views and some of the things that

0:31:05.084 --> 0:31:07.964
<v Speaker 1>he does take with him. And you know, I've heard

0:31:09.044 --> 0:31:11.524
<v Speaker 1>I've heard people say, and I think that this makes

0:31:11.564 --> 0:31:14.284
<v Speaker 1>a lot of sense that another reason why he's so

0:31:14.404 --> 0:31:17.444
<v Speaker 1>good on the Trump ticket is he's someone who's you know,

0:31:17.924 --> 0:31:21.444
<v Speaker 1>he is someone who it will be very focused on

0:31:21.524 --> 0:31:25.204
<v Speaker 1>actually pulling those levers of power to pass the very

0:31:25.244 --> 0:31:29.364
<v Speaker 1>conservative America First agenda. Unlike people he's being compared to.

0:31:29.724 --> 0:31:31.724
<v Speaker 1>Some people are comparing him to Reagan or to Nixon,

0:31:32.524 --> 0:31:36.084
<v Speaker 1>but you know, those presidents were much more global minded

0:31:36.124 --> 0:31:38.644
<v Speaker 1>as well, and JD. Vance seems like he's going to

0:31:38.684 --> 0:31:41.804
<v Speaker 1>be very much America first. I mean, he was one

0:31:41.844 --> 0:31:47.244
<v Speaker 1>of the leading voices against against Ukraine, right against aid

0:31:47.284 --> 0:31:51.364
<v Speaker 1>to Ukraine, which is you know, and against all of

0:31:51.404 --> 0:31:55.044
<v Speaker 1>these packages, which is really troubling because if you think

0:31:55.084 --> 0:31:57.884
<v Speaker 1>about the fact that we have to think about, you know,

0:31:58.284 --> 0:32:01.164
<v Speaker 1>global alliances, the fact that when Trump was president he

0:32:01.284 --> 0:32:03.604
<v Speaker 1>pulled out of a lot of these different agreements, that

0:32:03.964 --> 0:32:06.844
<v Speaker 1>a lot of them were fraying, and that Biden has

0:32:06.884 --> 0:32:09.244
<v Speaker 1>tried to kind of do do the opposite, undo some

0:32:09.244 --> 0:32:11.644
<v Speaker 1>of that. But now if we have a Trump Advance ticket,

0:32:11.844 --> 0:32:14.364
<v Speaker 1>you know, think, let's think ahead, because you need to.

0:32:14.724 --> 0:32:17.924
<v Speaker 1>Elections are not just about this year. We're talking about

0:32:17.924 --> 0:32:20.164
<v Speaker 1>the next four years, about the next eight years. We're

0:32:20.204 --> 0:32:24.044
<v Speaker 1>talking about a huge chunk of political future and personal

0:32:24.084 --> 0:32:26.044
<v Speaker 1>future for a lot of people. And you have to

0:32:26.084 --> 0:32:28.244
<v Speaker 1>when you think in those terms, it becomes very frightening

0:32:28.484 --> 0:32:31.604
<v Speaker 1>to think of a president and a vice president who

0:32:31.684 --> 0:32:35.004
<v Speaker 1>feel the way they feel about involvement in the external world.

0:32:35.324 --> 0:32:38.724
<v Speaker 1>What does that mean, you know, for America's role in

0:32:38.764 --> 0:32:40.964
<v Speaker 1>the world, What does that mean for foreign conflicts. What

0:32:40.964 --> 0:32:43.124
<v Speaker 1>does that mean for everything? I mean to me, like

0:32:43.764 --> 0:32:47.924
<v Speaker 1>those things are obviously as a woman, like the abortion

0:32:47.964 --> 0:32:52.484
<v Speaker 1>stuff is very personal and like very immediate and very

0:32:52.484 --> 0:32:55.244
<v Speaker 1>worrisome on that level. But I'm also very worried as

0:32:55.244 --> 0:32:57.764
<v Speaker 1>a human being, as an immigrant, as a gommal citizen,

0:32:58.004 --> 0:33:00.724
<v Speaker 1>you know, as someone whose dad is Ukrainian, right, Like,

0:33:01.084 --> 0:33:03.364
<v Speaker 1>I'm very worried about the implications of things like that

0:33:03.444 --> 0:33:06.284
<v Speaker 1>as well. And I think that we haven't talked enough

0:33:06.324 --> 0:33:10.244
<v Speaker 1>about that, and people are just being way too focused

0:33:10.284 --> 0:33:14.244
<v Speaker 1>on the present moment. And I'm actually quite concerned about

0:33:14.244 --> 0:33:16.004
<v Speaker 1>the JD. Van's nomination.

0:33:16.524 --> 0:33:20.004
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, Trump has soft pedaled abortion a little bit.

0:33:20.964 --> 0:33:22.804
<v Speaker 2>I mean, look, if you look at the two parties,

0:33:22.884 --> 0:33:27.364
<v Speaker 2>and it seems like Republicans care about witting more, which,

0:33:27.524 --> 0:33:30.244
<v Speaker 2>since elections are a popularity contest, is something which I

0:33:30.244 --> 0:33:33.924
<v Speaker 2>find not admirable exactly, but like at least strategically wise.

0:33:34.324 --> 0:33:37.324
<v Speaker 2>Although with this pick, you know, Ohio is not a

0:33:37.364 --> 0:33:39.884
<v Speaker 2>swing state, I do not understand how he appeals to

0:33:39.924 --> 0:33:42.724
<v Speaker 2>swing voters. Maybe he'll give a good speech, I guess

0:33:42.724 --> 0:33:45.284
<v Speaker 2>tonight as we're taking this is like going to be

0:33:45.324 --> 0:33:48.284
<v Speaker 2>his convention speech, but like it seems like.

0:33:48.364 --> 0:33:49.844
<v Speaker 3>Not I don't know.

0:33:49.924 --> 0:33:55.244
<v Speaker 2>Apparently they're reporting that like Trump wanted to pick Doug Burgham,

0:33:55.324 --> 0:33:58.444
<v Speaker 2>who is the governor of North Dakota, and was dissuaded

0:33:58.484 --> 0:34:01.884
<v Speaker 2>by it by Eric Trump, his son, and his other son,

0:34:02.004 --> 0:34:05.484
<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump Junior. So we think that like, oh, we

0:34:05.564 --> 0:34:08.444
<v Speaker 2>kind of model out. Oh here's this rational behavior. You

0:34:08.564 --> 0:34:12.164
<v Speaker 2>have some phdcs rational behavior among political balltapah. Right, Actually,

0:34:12.124 --> 0:34:14.804
<v Speaker 2>it's just fucking Eric Trump and Donald Trump Junior on

0:34:14.844 --> 0:34:18.604
<v Speaker 2>the one hand, and apparently, according to other reporting, hunter

0:34:18.724 --> 0:34:21.244
<v Speaker 2>fucking Biden and Jill Biden on the other end.

0:34:21.804 --> 0:34:22.764
<v Speaker 3>That was just beside.

0:34:23.764 --> 0:34:27.924
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, on both sides. Right, who is the advisors?

0:34:28.324 --> 0:34:32.444
<v Speaker 1>Who's actually advising? Like your sons, your wife and your son.

0:34:32.804 --> 0:34:35.364
<v Speaker 1>I mean, this is it is. It is kind of crazy.

0:34:35.524 --> 0:34:38.044
<v Speaker 1>It would be hilarious if it weren't so serious, if

0:34:38.084 --> 0:34:41.284
<v Speaker 1>we weren't actually in an election. Yeah, okay, So Nate,

0:34:41.764 --> 0:34:45.644
<v Speaker 1>bottom line, what does the fact that Donald Trump has

0:34:45.684 --> 0:34:50.564
<v Speaker 1>picked JD. Vance as his vice presidential nominee mean for

0:34:50.724 --> 0:34:52.404
<v Speaker 1>his chances of winning the election?

0:34:53.844 --> 0:34:56.084
<v Speaker 2>Look, I think it means, among other things, that he's

0:34:56.124 --> 0:35:00.804
<v Speaker 2>not ticking the high road. I mean, Vance is quite partisan.

0:35:01.084 --> 0:35:03.964
<v Speaker 2>After the assassination attempt by the way, He sent out

0:35:04.004 --> 0:35:08.364
<v Speaker 2>a tweet saying that, like Joe, Biden's rhetoric was like

0:35:08.724 --> 0:35:13.524
<v Speaker 2>responsible for for the environment that led to the assassination attempt.

0:35:14.684 --> 0:35:16.084
<v Speaker 2>Before he was picked, it was kind of like a

0:35:16.164 --> 0:35:18.164
<v Speaker 2>raise your hand, oh, mabie me like teacher, teacher, pick me,

0:35:18.244 --> 0:35:18.804
<v Speaker 2>picked me, pick me.

0:35:19.764 --> 0:35:21.164
<v Speaker 3>But no, it's it's.

0:35:20.924 --> 0:35:24.684
<v Speaker 2>A not the high road approach, and I think not

0:35:24.804 --> 0:35:28.924
<v Speaker 2>the smartest one. Look, Trump might have picked somebody totally wacky,

0:35:29.044 --> 0:35:32.244
<v Speaker 2>right at least this guy, uh has been a center

0:35:32.284 --> 0:35:33.684
<v Speaker 2>for a year and a half, or he's been in

0:35:33.684 --> 0:35:37.084
<v Speaker 2>the military. Best selling author, you know, Maria, as best

0:35:37.084 --> 0:35:41.004
<v Speaker 2>selling authors, we should be championing our author turned vice president.

0:35:41.844 --> 0:35:44.364
<v Speaker 2>But it's it's not the choice that I think would

0:35:44.404 --> 0:35:48.564
<v Speaker 2>maximize the chances of winning the electoral college. And especially

0:35:48.644 --> 0:35:53.164
<v Speaker 2>given that like unlike Biden, Trump is ahead now, he

0:35:53.244 --> 0:35:57.684
<v Speaker 2>should be fairly risk averse. Maybe he thinks he's so

0:35:57.724 --> 0:35:59.764
<v Speaker 2>far ahead that he's gonna win anyway. And therefore here's

0:35:59.764 --> 0:36:03.644
<v Speaker 2>a guy that will like perpetuate trumpiness, ma goodness or

0:36:03.644 --> 0:36:06.884
<v Speaker 2>magodness or however you say it, and be my heir apparent.

0:36:08.844 --> 0:36:12.244
<v Speaker 2>But you know, as the candy who I think has

0:36:12.284 --> 0:36:14.364
<v Speaker 2>run the smarter of the two campaigns so far. This

0:36:14.444 --> 0:36:19.124
<v Speaker 2>is a I think a medium bad decision, a medium

0:36:19.164 --> 0:36:19.724
<v Speaker 2>bad misstep.

0:36:19.764 --> 0:36:20.164
<v Speaker 3>I meant to.

0:36:20.164 --> 0:36:26.324
<v Speaker 1>Say, we'll be back after a quick break.

0:36:34.404 --> 0:36:38.124
<v Speaker 2>So, Maria, the World Series of Poker is is it over?

0:36:38.244 --> 0:36:38.524
<v Speaker 3>Today?

0:36:38.524 --> 0:36:40.924
<v Speaker 1>It's well today, Today is the last day of the

0:36:40.964 --> 0:36:43.244
<v Speaker 1>live events, and then there are two more online.

0:36:42.804 --> 0:36:45.444
<v Speaker 2>Events, okay, which are kind of fake, but let's not

0:36:45.444 --> 0:36:47.044
<v Speaker 2>talk about so we won't.

0:36:47.044 --> 0:36:49.364
<v Speaker 1>We won't talk about the fact that their online events

0:36:49.364 --> 0:36:51.364
<v Speaker 1>are fake, especially if I want to if I went,

0:36:51.804 --> 0:36:52.044
<v Speaker 1>I don't.

0:36:52.284 --> 0:36:53.604
<v Speaker 2>I love the World Series of Poker, but I don't

0:36:53.604 --> 0:36:55.284
<v Speaker 2>mean literally fake. But like I think it's just a

0:36:55.324 --> 0:36:56.964
<v Speaker 2>different species.

0:36:56.524 --> 0:36:58.484
<v Speaker 1>Of PA I totally I totally agree. I totally agree.

0:36:58.524 --> 0:37:00.684
<v Speaker 1>I do not think there should be any online Bracelet events.

0:37:00.724 --> 0:37:02.924
<v Speaker 1>So so we're actually on the same page there. But yeah,

0:37:03.004 --> 0:37:06.844
<v Speaker 1>it's winding down, and man, Nate, I am exhausted, you know,

0:37:07.004 --> 0:37:09.404
<v Speaker 1>I and I took time off. I haven't been here

0:37:09.564 --> 0:37:13.444
<v Speaker 1>the whole time, and I am just tired, tired, tired.

0:37:13.524 --> 0:37:16.804
<v Speaker 1>So today is my last event. It's one thousand dollars

0:37:16.804 --> 0:37:19.644
<v Speaker 1>super Turbo so event.

0:37:19.484 --> 0:37:20.284
<v Speaker 3>Last year or something.

0:37:20.364 --> 0:37:24.004
<v Speaker 2>Right, it's a little it's a little bit depressing that,

0:37:24.084 --> 0:37:27.164
<v Speaker 2>I mean, they're like literally like boarding up the Paris

0:37:27.244 --> 0:37:30.284
<v Speaker 2>and Bally's or horses. Excuse me as you're playing. It's

0:37:30.284 --> 0:37:32.804
<v Speaker 2>a little bit, a little bit depressing. I flew home

0:37:33.724 --> 0:37:37.884
<v Speaker 2>early because I had a jury summons yesterday, which was Tuesday.

0:37:38.164 --> 0:37:41.524
<v Speaker 1>So yeah, Nate, I've been called for jury duty three

0:37:41.524 --> 0:37:45.124
<v Speaker 1>times and I've gotten out of it all three times.

0:37:45.684 --> 0:37:48.964
<v Speaker 1>All three have been in New York. The first time

0:37:50.284 --> 0:37:53.764
<v Speaker 1>I was in grad school and it was an asbestos trial.

0:37:53.804 --> 0:37:55.484
<v Speaker 1>So they're like, this trial is going to be for

0:37:55.764 --> 0:37:58.324
<v Speaker 1>at least like four months or six and I was like,

0:37:58.484 --> 0:38:00.484
<v Speaker 1>I'm a grad student, like and they were like, okay,

0:38:00.484 --> 0:38:02.364
<v Speaker 1>I dismissed right, like that.

0:38:01.884 --> 0:38:03.244
<v Speaker 3>That was That's what happened is I went in.

0:38:03.484 --> 0:38:05.884
<v Speaker 2>You know, I didn't want to like tell because honestly,

0:38:05.884 --> 0:38:08.244
<v Speaker 2>if you're a journalist, then probably you could like go

0:38:08.444 --> 0:38:11.084
<v Speaker 2>and like and say, I'm a journalist, I have all

0:38:11.084 --> 0:38:13.444
<v Speaker 2>these strong political views, right, you probably won't get selected.

0:38:13.444 --> 0:38:16.044
<v Speaker 2>But like, I didn't want to like tell any lies

0:38:16.164 --> 0:38:19.124
<v Speaker 2>or like literally you're sworn in, right, you raise your

0:38:19.124 --> 0:38:21.404
<v Speaker 2>hand and say I will not tell a lie whatever else, right,

0:38:21.484 --> 0:38:24.164
<v Speaker 2>and the and the judge says that, like because if

0:38:24.164 --> 0:38:25.404
<v Speaker 2>it had been this week, I mean we'd have I

0:38:25.404 --> 0:38:27.324
<v Speaker 2>would have worked around it, right, I could have, like I,

0:38:27.404 --> 0:38:28.964
<v Speaker 2>you know, and because a lot of these trials are

0:38:29.004 --> 0:38:30.844
<v Speaker 2>like two or three days, but the judge was like,

0:38:31.444 --> 0:38:33.164
<v Speaker 2>this is going to go for a couple of weeks.

0:38:33.644 --> 0:38:36.604
<v Speaker 2>If you have conflicts, raise your hand. And I raise

0:38:36.644 --> 0:38:38.644
<v Speaker 2>my hand because I have, like, I have hard conflicts.

0:38:38.684 --> 0:38:40.564
<v Speaker 2>I have travel next week, I have this book promotion

0:38:40.644 --> 0:38:43.244
<v Speaker 2>thing that things that like I prescheduled, I can't avoid,

0:38:43.284 --> 0:38:48.564
<v Speaker 2>so therefore I can't really serve. And they're understanding of that.

0:38:48.604 --> 0:38:51.404
<v Speaker 2>But don't don't bluff, right, because they also said because

0:38:51.404 --> 0:38:54.684
<v Speaker 2>the judge also says she's this funny woman, she's like,

0:38:55.324 --> 0:38:56.924
<v Speaker 2>you know, by the way, it's important for you to

0:38:57.004 --> 0:39:00.964
<v Speaker 2>understand that just because somebody was arrested, this is a

0:39:00.964 --> 0:39:03.884
<v Speaker 2>guy who was arrested for some robbery. Right, just because

0:39:03.884 --> 0:39:07.364
<v Speaker 2>the guy was arrested doesn't mean that he's guilty. Sometimes

0:39:07.364 --> 0:39:10.084
<v Speaker 2>people are arrested for the wrong reasons. It's important that

0:39:10.124 --> 0:39:13.324
<v Speaker 2>you understand that as a juror just everyone in the room.

0:39:13.324 --> 0:39:14.884
<v Speaker 2>At this point, we haven't select the jury yet. There

0:39:14.964 --> 0:39:18.324
<v Speaker 2>are probably sixty people, right, you know, raise your hand

0:39:18.444 --> 0:39:21.404
<v Speaker 2>if you don't understand that, right, And as like woman

0:39:21.484 --> 0:39:23.724
<v Speaker 2>raise her hands. She's like, I believe if the cops

0:39:23.804 --> 0:39:25.244
<v Speaker 2>arrest somebody, they must be guilty.

0:39:25.324 --> 0:39:26.164
<v Speaker 3>It's like a.

0:39:26.164 --> 0:39:30.604
<v Speaker 2>Very bad bluff. Uh, And the judge is like, Okay,

0:39:30.604 --> 0:39:33.284
<v Speaker 2>you're not fit for this criminal trial, but we're gonna

0:39:33.284 --> 0:39:35.404
<v Speaker 2>put you back in the rubber room and you'll get

0:39:35.444 --> 0:39:38.564
<v Speaker 2>a civil trial, and the civil trials are longer. Right,

0:39:38.644 --> 0:39:41.284
<v Speaker 2>So like that bluff was like yeah, yeah, so like

0:39:41.324 --> 0:39:43.844
<v Speaker 2>that woman sucked up. Don't like, don't give these bullshit

0:39:44.524 --> 0:39:47.844
<v Speaker 2>unverifiable excuses, right yeah, uh, you know, I don't know

0:39:47.844 --> 0:39:49.644
<v Speaker 2>what ultimately happened to her, but like the rest of

0:39:49.724 --> 0:39:53.124
<v Speaker 2>us who like who had legitimate excuses, were like put

0:39:53.164 --> 0:39:55.724
<v Speaker 2>back in this room and told to go at three thirty.

0:39:55.804 --> 0:39:57.564
<v Speaker 3>Right, that was up to some different room.

0:39:57.604 --> 0:39:59.164
<v Speaker 2>I'm not sure if she'll ever be heard from again,

0:39:59.204 --> 0:40:01.364
<v Speaker 2>but like, don't don't lie to a judge about like,

0:40:01.404 --> 0:40:04.684
<v Speaker 2>oh I believe that like all you know, she's her

0:40:04.924 --> 0:40:05.524
<v Speaker 2>always right.

0:40:07.684 --> 0:40:13.044
<v Speaker 1>Yes, she's the subject of uh Kafka's next novel, written

0:40:13.044 --> 0:40:17.444
<v Speaker 1>from Beyond the Grave. Yes she she she definitely fucked up.

0:40:17.724 --> 0:40:20.044
<v Speaker 1>But no, I think I think Jerry duty is a

0:40:20.084 --> 0:40:22.844
<v Speaker 1>really funny thing because obviously, like we want to serve

0:40:22.884 --> 0:40:24.484
<v Speaker 1>by the way, I never actually got to the in

0:40:24.524 --> 0:40:28.244
<v Speaker 1>front of the judge. I've always been dismissed beforehand before that.

0:40:29.484 --> 0:40:32.284
<v Speaker 1>But it's, uh, it's one of these things where like

0:40:32.324 --> 0:40:35.204
<v Speaker 1>you feel like you need to serve because like you

0:40:35.204 --> 0:40:37.764
<v Speaker 1>want to do your patriotic duty, but like, oh fuck me,

0:40:37.884 --> 0:40:39.364
<v Speaker 1>like I really do not want to serve on.

0:40:39.644 --> 0:40:41.524
<v Speaker 3>I'd be a good juror. I'm telling you that, man,

0:40:41.684 --> 0:40:42.124
<v Speaker 3>I would.

0:40:44.084 --> 0:40:47.204
<v Speaker 1>All right, everyone, did you hear that? Bring Nate back?

0:40:47.244 --> 0:40:48.804
<v Speaker 3>So you know I.

0:40:48.724 --> 0:40:53.044
<v Speaker 2>Got four years now I'm off, I guess, but yeah,

0:40:53.044 --> 0:40:56.564
<v Speaker 2>I know did so? Would you say it was a

0:40:56.564 --> 0:40:58.604
<v Speaker 2>successful World series for you? Because I wouldn't say that

0:40:58.604 --> 0:40:59.444
<v Speaker 2>about my World series?

0:40:59.644 --> 0:41:01.724
<v Speaker 1>No, no, no, no, My my World series was awful.

0:41:02.244 --> 0:41:05.164
<v Speaker 1>I'm down a lot. You know. It's still not the end.

0:41:05.204 --> 0:41:07.484
<v Speaker 1>We have one more, we have one more event and

0:41:07.524 --> 0:41:11.444
<v Speaker 1>then the two fake online events to play. But I'm

0:41:11.484 --> 0:41:14.524
<v Speaker 1>down a lot. I haven't finished my equity calculations mate

0:41:14.564 --> 0:41:17.124
<v Speaker 1>for our bet. Well we'll sum that up for next week.

0:41:17.804 --> 0:41:20.524
<v Speaker 1>But I think that I'm winning our bet. Unfortunately, as

0:41:20.724 --> 0:41:23.924
<v Speaker 1>you and I have discussed, you know, yesterday was a

0:41:23.964 --> 0:41:26.484
<v Speaker 1>pretty great example of that. It's basically how my whole

0:41:26.484 --> 0:41:29.684
<v Speaker 1>summer's been going. You know, get in aces against pocket

0:41:29.764 --> 0:41:32.164
<v Speaker 1>nines and they hit their nine and you're out. You

0:41:32.164 --> 0:41:35.804
<v Speaker 1>know that that's basically you know, that's that's the types

0:41:35.844 --> 0:41:39.204
<v Speaker 1>of equity flips that I've been in. And those aren't flips, right,

0:41:39.244 --> 0:41:42.484
<v Speaker 1>those are the situations where you're huge, your huge favorite,

0:41:42.684 --> 0:41:45.924
<v Speaker 1>you should be winning, and I've been losing almost all

0:41:45.964 --> 0:41:48.924
<v Speaker 1>of them. I've been playing well, so I actually have

0:41:49.004 --> 0:41:53.004
<v Speaker 1>been able to accumulate lots of chips, and my strategy,

0:41:53.124 --> 0:41:55.644
<v Speaker 1>looking at my all in history, basically since it's like

0:41:55.724 --> 0:41:58.404
<v Speaker 1>lost loss loss loss loss loss loss loss, like, my

0:41:58.444 --> 0:42:01.484
<v Speaker 1>strategy should be never to get all in because whenever

0:42:01.524 --> 0:42:05.004
<v Speaker 1>I'm in those situations, I lose, but otherwise otherwise I

0:42:05.044 --> 0:42:07.604
<v Speaker 1>do pretty damn well. So so it's been a fun

0:42:07.684 --> 0:42:13.444
<v Speaker 1>it's been a funny world series, and it's you know,

0:42:13.524 --> 0:42:15.924
<v Speaker 1>it's it's amusing. You have to have perspective when you

0:42:15.964 --> 0:42:19.684
<v Speaker 1>see you're running that poorly. Obviously I wish I warrant,

0:42:20.524 --> 0:42:22.484
<v Speaker 1>but you know, this is the moment where I'm like, damn,

0:42:22.524 --> 0:42:24.644
<v Speaker 1>we shouldn't have bet six hundred and sixty six dollars.

0:42:24.684 --> 0:42:27.804
<v Speaker 1>What about sixty six thousand, you know, something like that

0:42:27.844 --> 0:42:29.644
<v Speaker 1>would have been better to save my summer.

0:42:30.724 --> 0:42:32.204
<v Speaker 2>I'm not sure that you're gonna be me. I have

0:42:32.324 --> 0:42:36.284
<v Speaker 2>I've run pretty bad on all ends too. You know, also,

0:42:38.404 --> 0:42:40.924
<v Speaker 2>uh like this, I mean, when you have when you

0:42:41.004 --> 0:42:43.044
<v Speaker 2>have a lot of distractions, right, I'm not sure my mind.

0:42:43.244 --> 0:42:44.364
<v Speaker 3>The thing I love about.

0:42:44.124 --> 0:42:46.524
<v Speaker 2>The World Series and all experiences hopefully next year, right

0:42:46.604 --> 0:42:49.164
<v Speaker 2>or maybe whenever I play poker next in December at

0:42:49.164 --> 0:42:51.644
<v Speaker 2>the wind probably right, come to me. There's a nice

0:42:51.644 --> 0:42:55.244
<v Speaker 2>feeling about being totally immersed in poker.

0:42:55.324 --> 0:42:55.484
<v Speaker 3>Right.

0:42:55.524 --> 0:42:58.604
<v Speaker 2>All I have to do is wake up, play poker,

0:42:58.644 --> 0:43:00.124
<v Speaker 2>and maybe hang out with my friends a little bit

0:43:00.204 --> 0:43:00.564
<v Speaker 2>or something.

0:43:00.644 --> 0:43:01.884
<v Speaker 3>Right, I'm not doing that.

0:43:01.924 --> 0:43:03.764
<v Speaker 2>I have, like I have to wake up and like

0:43:03.804 --> 0:43:05.524
<v Speaker 2>write a blog post and run the model and do

0:43:05.604 --> 0:43:08.604
<v Speaker 2>five other things and return these emails and then then

0:43:08.644 --> 0:43:09.764
<v Speaker 2>play poker for ten hours.

0:43:09.884 --> 0:43:12.324
<v Speaker 3>It's a challenge. It's tough.

0:43:12.764 --> 0:43:14.364
<v Speaker 1>It's one of the reasons I think that we're both

0:43:14.364 --> 0:43:16.884
<v Speaker 1>I mean that I'm so exhausted is because you know,

0:43:16.924 --> 0:43:18.884
<v Speaker 1>this has not been a World Series where I've been

0:43:18.884 --> 0:43:22.964
<v Speaker 1>able to focus exclusively on poker for obvious reasons, and

0:43:23.524 --> 0:43:27.604
<v Speaker 1>that does matter. But you know, just breathe, breathe deep,

0:43:28.444 --> 0:43:32.124
<v Speaker 1>reboot and try to think well and play well and

0:43:32.204 --> 0:43:35.884
<v Speaker 1>do better next time. Now, today, of course is super turbo,

0:43:35.964 --> 0:43:37.644
<v Speaker 1>so I have to run well in all ends. For

0:43:37.684 --> 0:43:40.644
<v Speaker 1>people who don't play poker, what a super turbo means

0:43:40.684 --> 0:43:44.164
<v Speaker 1>is the levels get very high, very quickly. So that

0:43:44.244 --> 0:43:46.604
<v Speaker 1>means that you do have to get into these all

0:43:46.644 --> 0:43:48.844
<v Speaker 1>in confrontations. You do have to win, you have to

0:43:48.844 --> 0:43:54.764
<v Speaker 1>get lucky. Turbos are basically the highest variance Hyen's highest

0:43:55.084 --> 0:43:59.964
<v Speaker 1>variance variant of poker, right because they move so incredibly quickly,

0:44:00.164 --> 0:44:02.644
<v Speaker 1>So you have to run well. So maybe today my

0:44:02.764 --> 0:44:05.844
<v Speaker 1>luck will completely reverse and today will be the day

0:44:05.884 --> 0:44:07.724
<v Speaker 1>that I end up losing our bit.

0:44:08.724 --> 0:44:10.964
<v Speaker 2>Join us next week where Wheelchairs a Poker Brace. The

0:44:11.004 --> 0:44:13.764
<v Speaker 2>winner Maria Kannakova and I will talk about how she

0:44:13.884 --> 0:44:18.244
<v Speaker 2>navigated her turbo way into poker glory or I'm not sure.

0:44:18.004 --> 0:44:20.084
<v Speaker 1>What poker glory, poker history.

0:44:20.084 --> 0:44:25.844
<v Speaker 3>I love it, poker history.

0:44:26.844 --> 0:44:30.124
<v Speaker 1>Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kannakova and me

0:44:30.364 --> 0:44:33.404
<v Speaker 1>Nate Silver. The show is a co production of Pushkin

0:44:33.444 --> 0:44:38.004
<v Speaker 1>Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter.

0:44:38.364 --> 0:44:42.244
<v Speaker 1>Our associate producer is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer

0:44:42.324 --> 0:44:43.684
<v Speaker 1>is Jacob Goldstein.

0:44:43.684 --> 0:44:46.044
<v Speaker 2>And If you want to listen to an ad free version,

0:44:46.084 --> 0:44:48.724
<v Speaker 2>sign up for Pushkin Plus. For six ninety nine a month,

0:44:48.964 --> 0:44:52.004
<v Speaker 2>you get access to ad free listening. Thanks for tuning in.