1
00:00:15,604 --> 00:00:26,124
Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making

2
00:00:26,124 --> 00:00:28,884
Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Khannikova.

3
00:00:28,644 --> 00:00:32,884
Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver. Today we're going to be talking

4
00:00:32,924 --> 00:00:37,044
Speaker 2: about mostly politics again. There's a lot of news, including

5
00:00:37,044 --> 00:00:40,044
Speaker 2: an assassination attempt against former President Trump.

6
00:00:40,644 --> 00:00:43,284
Speaker 1: And yeah, and we'll be talking about Biden and Biden's

7
00:00:43,324 --> 00:00:47,284
Speaker 1: chances and the jd Vance nomination. And then Nate, you're

8
00:00:47,324 --> 00:00:51,124
Speaker 1: going to have a very personal take on something non political.

9
00:00:51,724 --> 00:00:55,284
Speaker 2: Yeah. I flew home earlier than I might have otherwise

10
00:00:55,284 --> 00:00:57,404
Speaker 2: in the World Chairs Poker because I had a jury summons,

11
00:00:57,404 --> 00:00:59,164
Speaker 2: which I've ducked in the past, and I didn't want

12
00:00:59,164 --> 00:01:00,684
Speaker 2: to duck again. But we'll talk about like a little

13
00:01:00,684 --> 00:01:03,044
Speaker 2: bit of the strategy about why you shouldn't lie to

14
00:01:03,204 --> 00:01:03,484
Speaker 2: like a.

15
00:01:04,484 --> 00:01:06,324
Speaker 3: Federal judge or I guess like a state judge in

16
00:01:06,324 --> 00:01:06,684
Speaker 3: this case.

17
00:01:06,924 --> 00:01:13,724
Speaker 1: That seems like smart policy. All right, So talking about,

18
00:01:13,764 --> 00:01:16,804
Speaker 1: you know, everything that's happened in the political world, I

19
00:01:16,844 --> 00:01:19,764
Speaker 1: think we obviously need to start with kind of the

20
00:01:19,804 --> 00:01:22,524
Speaker 1: most pressing news of the moment, which is that there

21
00:01:22,724 --> 00:01:26,044
Speaker 1: was an assassination attempt on the former President of the

22
00:01:26,124 --> 00:01:30,804
Speaker 1: United States Donald Trump during his rally in Pennsylvania. We

23
00:01:30,884 --> 00:01:33,764
Speaker 1: still don't know much about the shooter except he was right,

24
00:01:33,804 --> 00:01:37,844
Speaker 1: twenty years old, local, and that's about it.

25
00:01:39,044 --> 00:01:43,564
Speaker 2: Twenty years old, twenty years old was a registered Republican,

26
00:01:43,604 --> 00:01:47,484
Speaker 2: although had made at least one donation to a Democratic constituency,

27
00:01:47,484 --> 00:01:51,444
Speaker 2: to a democratic cause. I guess no, he's dead, so

28
00:01:51,524 --> 00:01:55,644
Speaker 2: he's not here to explain his motives. He might fit

29
00:01:55,764 --> 00:01:57,884
Speaker 2: into some sort of in cell if you know that

30
00:01:58,004 --> 00:02:01,004
Speaker 2: term stereotype a little bit. He seems not to have

31
00:02:01,004 --> 00:02:04,684
Speaker 2: had like a lot of social contacts or friends. But

32
00:02:04,724 --> 00:02:09,284
Speaker 2: we may never know very much about his motives. You know,

33
00:02:09,604 --> 00:02:12,604
Speaker 2: we do know, we we don't know.

34
00:02:13,204 --> 00:02:13,724
Speaker 3: Uh.

35
00:02:14,484 --> 00:02:17,044
Speaker 2: Look, I think the country has been lucky to avoid

36
00:02:18,004 --> 00:02:21,564
Speaker 2: something like this. I mean, for sure, talk a lot

37
00:02:21,564 --> 00:02:24,244
Speaker 2: on the show about like the vagaries of fate and

38
00:02:24,284 --> 00:02:29,284
Speaker 2: things like that. And a bullet apparently graized Trump's ear.

39
00:02:29,804 --> 00:02:34,164
Speaker 2: He apparently was looking at some uh some sign or

40
00:02:34,204 --> 00:02:34,764
Speaker 2: some whatever.

41
00:02:36,124 --> 00:02:39,764
Speaker 1: Irate He said it was an immigration graph, so he said,

42
00:02:39,964 --> 00:02:41,924
Speaker 1: border control, border control saved.

43
00:02:41,724 --> 00:02:44,164
Speaker 2: To always look at charts, right, that might literally save

44
00:02:44,244 --> 00:02:46,164
Speaker 2: your life. And he tilted his head to look at

45
00:02:46,164 --> 00:02:48,244
Speaker 2: the chart. The guy was apparently not a very good shot,

46
00:02:48,364 --> 00:02:51,924
Speaker 2: and therefore it just graves his ear.

47
00:02:51,924 --> 00:02:53,164
Speaker 3: I think we don't actually know that.

48
00:02:53,164 --> 00:02:54,964
Speaker 2: Much about like I mean, you know, we talk about

49
00:02:55,004 --> 00:02:58,044
Speaker 2: like President's not disclosing medical information, but an issue with Biden.

50
00:02:58,084 --> 00:03:01,204
Speaker 2: We also haven't really gotten any reports about like did

51
00:03:01,244 --> 00:03:04,684
Speaker 2: this like rupture his ear drum or something Trump, but

52
00:03:04,764 --> 00:03:08,444
Speaker 2: he seems at least more or less okay.

53
00:03:09,164 --> 00:03:10,804
Speaker 1: And after fighting spirits.

54
00:03:11,324 --> 00:03:14,764
Speaker 2: In fighting spirits, I mean, he had this iconic photo

55
00:03:16,204 --> 00:03:18,404
Speaker 2: that was so iconic that some Democrats think, oh, it

56
00:03:18,444 --> 00:03:20,924
Speaker 2: must have been staged. Right, It's like, give me a break,

57
00:03:22,204 --> 00:03:22,684
Speaker 2: And I.

58
00:03:22,644 --> 00:03:25,124
Speaker 1: Want to actually go back to that in one second.

59
00:03:25,804 --> 00:03:28,204
Speaker 1: Let's talk a little bit more. But I do, I

60
00:03:28,244 --> 00:03:30,284
Speaker 1: do want to touch a little bit on the psychology

61
00:03:30,324 --> 00:03:32,244
Speaker 1: of kind of the conspiracy theories around all of us.

62
00:03:32,244 --> 00:03:33,324
Speaker 3: Were gonna ask you about that?

63
00:03:33,444 --> 00:03:35,644
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, because because I think that it's I think

64
00:03:35,684 --> 00:03:38,204
Speaker 1: that's a really important point and the conspiracy theories are

65
00:03:38,204 --> 00:03:40,204
Speaker 1: going on on both sides. Did you want to finish

66
00:03:40,284 --> 00:03:42,604
Speaker 1: up your thought before we get into that. No.

67
00:03:42,764 --> 00:03:46,844
Speaker 2: Look, we are taping this on Wednesday, early afternoon, New

68
00:03:46,924 --> 00:03:48,524
Speaker 2: York time, Wednesday morning, Vegas time.

69
00:03:49,284 --> 00:03:51,084
Speaker 3: We don't really have a lot of polling.

70
00:03:51,164 --> 00:03:53,764
Speaker 2: I know it sounds crass talk about polling for how

71
00:03:53,804 --> 00:03:57,524
Speaker 2: it's affected the race, and we may never know because

72
00:03:57,524 --> 00:04:00,884
Speaker 2: what's happening this week is there's a Republican convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

73
00:04:01,564 --> 00:04:05,524
Speaker 2: Typically conventions it's like a big paid advertisement for your

74
00:04:05,564 --> 00:04:08,764
Speaker 2: party and so typically produces like a short lived bounce

75
00:04:08,804 --> 00:04:12,924
Speaker 2: in the polling. Trump has also nominated his vice presidential candidate,

76
00:04:13,084 --> 00:04:16,284
Speaker 2: Senator j. D. Vance of Ohio. There's a bunch of

77
00:04:16,284 --> 00:04:18,724
Speaker 2: stuff piling on top of each other. In other words,

78
00:04:18,924 --> 00:04:23,124
Speaker 2: what we can say is that President Biden trails and

79
00:04:23,164 --> 00:04:25,764
Speaker 2: the large majority of these polls, virtually all of the

80
00:04:25,804 --> 00:04:29,364
Speaker 2: nonpartisan polling and swing states and most of them, not

81
00:04:29,404 --> 00:04:30,564
Speaker 2: all of the national polls.

82
00:04:32,004 --> 00:04:34,044
Speaker 3: You know, in the short run, it will probably get worse.

83
00:04:35,404 --> 00:04:37,244
Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean.

84
00:04:39,404 --> 00:04:46,444
Speaker 2: Again, the contrast between Trump surviving this attack and raising

85
00:04:46,484 --> 00:04:50,764
Speaker 2: his fists and saying fight, fight, fight, versus Biden being

86
00:04:51,524 --> 00:04:53,124
Speaker 2: still quite feeble. There have been a bunch of more

87
00:04:53,124 --> 00:04:56,884
Speaker 2: public appearances by Biden. They've been mixed. When you say mixed,

88
00:04:56,884 --> 00:05:00,804
Speaker 2: it's a euphism for shitty usually, right. You know, he's

89
00:05:00,804 --> 00:05:02,844
Speaker 2: been better in some venues than others.

90
00:05:03,324 --> 00:05:06,804
Speaker 1: Uh best, by the way, and you know when he

91
00:05:06,924 --> 00:05:09,084
Speaker 1: was speaking in NATO and did a really good job

92
00:05:09,124 --> 00:05:14,364
Speaker 1: on f policy, He's still called Kamala VP Trump and

93
00:05:14,724 --> 00:05:18,804
Speaker 1: called Zelenski Putin and people say, oh, you know, you

94
00:05:18,884 --> 00:05:21,164
Speaker 1: mess up all the time. People always have these sorts

95
00:05:21,204 --> 00:05:25,084
Speaker 1: of gaffs. Yes, but right, like this is clearly taking

96
00:05:25,164 --> 00:05:27,604
Speaker 1: a lot out of him, and as we've said over

97
00:05:27,684 --> 00:05:30,244
Speaker 1: and over, it's only going to get worse. This is

98
00:05:30,484 --> 00:05:32,484
Speaker 1: you know, he he is pulled in and we can

99
00:05:32,564 --> 00:05:35,404
Speaker 1: see him fraying in those moments. And I think the

100
00:05:35,484 --> 00:05:37,404
Speaker 1: NATO appearance was one of his best.

101
00:05:38,244 --> 00:05:38,484
Speaker 4: Yeah.

102
00:05:38,524 --> 00:05:41,204
Speaker 2: Look, I mean even in the prepared demarks he gave

103
00:05:41,364 --> 00:05:45,684
Speaker 2: after the assassination attempt, he said battle box instead of

104
00:05:45,684 --> 00:05:48,404
Speaker 2: ballot box repeatedly. And this is reading off I presume

105
00:05:48,444 --> 00:05:53,204
Speaker 2: a teleprompter. Look, you take some average performance and like

106
00:05:53,724 --> 00:05:58,404
Speaker 2: on his best days, Biden is like a B B plus, right,

107
00:05:58,444 --> 00:06:00,604
Speaker 2: and the worst is like well into f territory.

108
00:06:00,764 --> 00:06:00,964
Speaker 1: Yeah.

109
00:06:01,964 --> 00:06:03,604
Speaker 2: And by the way, we're not getting that large saple

110
00:06:03,604 --> 00:06:06,044
Speaker 2: because he doesn't do that many events relative to like

111
00:06:06,524 --> 00:06:09,884
Speaker 2: another president always tried to increase the number recently, but

112
00:06:09,924 --> 00:06:12,204
Speaker 2: we have a large enough sample size to say that

113
00:06:12,324 --> 00:06:17,124
Speaker 2: like this is extremely mediocre at best and consistent with

114
00:06:17,164 --> 00:06:20,404
Speaker 2: the pattern of declining cognitive ability. I don't think there's

115
00:06:20,404 --> 00:06:21,884
Speaker 2: any other way to say that. I mean, you know,

116
00:06:22,004 --> 00:06:25,044
Speaker 2: maybe by some weird coincience, he just can't speak very coherently.

117
00:06:25,164 --> 00:06:28,644
Speaker 2: But the other facilities are fine, right, I mean faculties, facilities, whatever.

118
00:06:28,844 --> 00:06:30,844
Speaker 2: Like maybe it's okay, but like he wants to be

119
00:06:30,924 --> 00:06:33,204
Speaker 2: present for another four years and it's just kind of

120
00:06:33,764 --> 00:06:35,484
Speaker 2: I mean, it's really like an emperor. This is a

121
00:06:35,484 --> 00:06:37,324
Speaker 2: title of a previous episode, right, It's like an emperor

122
00:06:37,364 --> 00:06:41,124
Speaker 2: has no close moment. It's plainly obvious that like he

123
00:06:41,164 --> 00:06:43,604
Speaker 2: has lost his fastball. He might have even lost his

124
00:06:43,684 --> 00:06:47,244
Speaker 2: change up. Right, he is like lobbying pitches up over

125
00:06:47,284 --> 00:06:49,004
Speaker 2: the center of the plate. And because we're a very

126
00:06:49,564 --> 00:06:52,724
Speaker 2: partisan country, I mean, he's gonna get whatever forty four

127
00:06:52,764 --> 00:06:54,724
Speaker 2: percent of the voter something in a three way race

128
00:06:54,764 --> 00:06:56,324
Speaker 2: with also three party candidates on the.

129
00:06:56,284 --> 00:06:57,764
Speaker 3: Ballot, and like maybe he could win.

130
00:06:57,964 --> 00:07:00,764
Speaker 2: I don't know, right, I mean, he's not that that

131
00:07:00,564 --> 00:07:03,924
Speaker 2: that far behind in the polling. It's a problem for

132
00:07:04,004 --> 00:07:07,124
Speaker 2: him or any Democrat that like the electoral College favors Republicans.

133
00:07:08,164 --> 00:07:13,364
Speaker 2: But like it's hard to imagine another Democrat doing worse

134
00:07:13,444 --> 00:07:19,164
Speaker 2: than this, I guess, right, yeh, I mean, I you know,

135
00:07:19,204 --> 00:07:20,964
Speaker 2: I mean in a poll that came out this morning

136
00:07:21,044 --> 00:07:23,724
Speaker 2: from the Associated Press and the NRC, which is a

137
00:07:23,764 --> 00:07:26,524
Speaker 2: survey organization at the University of Caigo. Two thirds of

138
00:07:26,524 --> 00:07:30,284
Speaker 2: Democrats say he should be replaced. When two thirds of

139
00:07:30,324 --> 00:07:32,044
Speaker 2: your own party wants you out, I mean, I don't

140
00:07:32,044 --> 00:07:35,164
Speaker 2: think there's like any precedent for this. People can cite

141
00:07:35,724 --> 00:07:38,524
Speaker 2: Trump in twenty sixteen after the Access Hollywood tap, like,

142
00:07:38,844 --> 00:07:42,524
Speaker 2: but Republicans Democrats are different, and Republican voters were very

143
00:07:42,564 --> 00:07:45,324
Speaker 2: loyal to Trump. Democrats, or I think, are a little

144
00:07:45,324 --> 00:07:50,644
Speaker 2: bit more realistic apparently, except maybe the party leadership, which

145
00:07:50,684 --> 00:07:52,844
Speaker 2: is lying to itself and lying to the American public.

146
00:07:52,844 --> 00:07:54,564
Speaker 2: And there's like, there's no other way to put it, right,

147
00:07:54,604 --> 00:07:59,644
Speaker 2: It's some combination of lying and cowardice, two qualities that

148
00:07:59,684 --> 00:08:01,364
Speaker 2: I really dislike. Right, So, if you're at the ven

149
00:08:01,404 --> 00:08:06,604
Speaker 2: diagram of gutlessness and lying, then you know, I have

150
00:08:06,684 --> 00:08:08,844
Speaker 2: no respect for you. It's like a permanent we'll never

151
00:08:08,844 --> 00:08:10,364
Speaker 2: respect you a gain in your life if you pick

152
00:08:10,404 --> 00:08:14,804
Speaker 2: one right, tell us strategically, you know, lie once or twice, right,

153
00:08:14,804 --> 00:08:17,804
Speaker 2: and we've all lied in our life, right, or you

154
00:08:17,844 --> 00:08:19,564
Speaker 2: know whatever. But like in that if you're in that

155
00:08:19,684 --> 00:08:22,244
Speaker 2: overlap of being a coward, and a liar, then I

156
00:08:22,284 --> 00:08:24,484
Speaker 2: will never respect you again. And if I were a donor,

157
00:08:24,804 --> 00:08:27,084
Speaker 2: I would never want to ever give any money to

158
00:08:27,124 --> 00:08:29,284
Speaker 2: any Democrat as long as like the people that are

159
00:08:29,284 --> 00:08:31,284
Speaker 2: currently run the Democratic Party are in charge of the party.

160
00:08:31,884 --> 00:08:33,644
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I mean I think that's fair. I think

161
00:08:33,644 --> 00:08:36,844
Speaker 1: that's fair, and we should definitely let's let's talk a

162
00:08:36,884 --> 00:08:39,884
Speaker 1: little bit more about the Democrats. But before we completely

163
00:08:39,964 --> 00:08:43,604
Speaker 1: pivot to that, let's do a little bit of a

164
00:08:43,604 --> 00:08:48,684
Speaker 1: recap on kind of the aftermath of the assassination attempt

165
00:08:48,844 --> 00:08:50,804
Speaker 1: on Trump, because I do think it's really important to

166
00:08:50,804 --> 00:08:54,124
Speaker 1: address the fact that we do have conspiracy theories emerging

167
00:08:54,164 --> 00:08:56,164
Speaker 1: on both sides. Right, you have Democrats saying, oh, look

168
00:08:56,204 --> 00:08:59,124
Speaker 1: at this photograph, this was stage. You have Republicans, I

169
00:08:59,204 --> 00:09:01,804
Speaker 1: mean mostly it's Democrats actually saying that this was this

170
00:09:01,924 --> 00:09:04,724
Speaker 1: was stage. But you have people saying that this was staged,

171
00:09:05,004 --> 00:09:08,204
Speaker 1: that it wasn't an actual attempt, that you know, how

172
00:09:08,364 --> 00:09:10,164
Speaker 1: you know, how did this gun man get here, blah

173
00:09:10,164 --> 00:09:13,404
Speaker 1: blah blah. And by the way, there were definite security lapses. Right,

174
00:09:13,564 --> 00:09:17,444
Speaker 1: we now know that people fucked up to allow this

175
00:09:17,484 --> 00:09:20,164
Speaker 1: gunman there. I think to say that it was staged

176
00:09:20,284 --> 00:09:26,084
Speaker 1: is just like absolutely ludicrous because of many reasons. But

177
00:09:26,284 --> 00:09:29,044
Speaker 1: first of all, if a bullet grazed his ear, do

178
00:09:29,124 --> 00:09:33,204
Speaker 1: you realize, like the level of precision of marksmanship that

179
00:09:33,284 --> 00:09:35,644
Speaker 1: you would have to have to make sure that it

180
00:09:35,684 --> 00:09:38,284
Speaker 1: grazed the ear and not something else. What if the

181
00:09:38,324 --> 00:09:41,244
Speaker 1: winds changed, What if, you know, last minute, something happened,

182
00:09:41,284 --> 00:09:43,284
Speaker 1: like you could kill the person that you're supposed to

183
00:09:43,324 --> 00:09:47,164
Speaker 1: just pretend to assassinate, and people in the crowd died. Right,

184
00:09:47,364 --> 00:09:50,124
Speaker 1: we have one death, we have critical injuries. So I

185
00:09:50,164 --> 00:09:54,844
Speaker 1: think that to call this fake is just absolutely disconnected

186
00:09:54,884 --> 00:09:58,164
Speaker 1: from reality. And yet we are seeing more and more

187
00:09:58,164 --> 00:10:03,124
Speaker 1: of these moments where conspiracy theories, conspiratorial type thinking is

188
00:10:03,164 --> 00:10:06,764
Speaker 1: gaining ascendence, and I think that that has actually that

189
00:10:06,964 --> 00:10:10,284
Speaker 1: pattern started during the first Trump presidency, because he is

190
00:10:10,284 --> 00:10:15,284
Speaker 1: someone who loves to kind of endorse conspiracy theories and say, oh,

191
00:10:15,364 --> 00:10:18,164
Speaker 1: you know, this person did this, they meddled with this,

192
00:10:18,244 --> 00:10:21,444
Speaker 1: the election was stolen. There all these hidden forces and

193
00:10:22,084 --> 00:10:24,484
Speaker 1: a lot of the reasons why Trump appeals to voters

194
00:10:24,564 --> 00:10:27,124
Speaker 1: is actually a lot of the reasons why conspiracy theories

195
00:10:27,164 --> 00:10:32,164
Speaker 1: appeal to people's brains. So what we know about conspiracy

196
00:10:32,204 --> 00:10:36,244
Speaker 1: theory thinking is that First of all, when you're feeling

197
00:10:36,324 --> 00:10:39,244
Speaker 1: kind of out of control, when you're feeling disenfranchised, when

198
00:10:39,284 --> 00:10:41,884
Speaker 1: you're feeling you know, left out, like things are spirally

199
00:10:41,884 --> 00:10:45,244
Speaker 1: out of control, Conspiracy theories are amazing because either you

200
00:10:45,284 --> 00:10:48,124
Speaker 1: have to just say, Okay, shit happens and random bad

201
00:10:48,164 --> 00:10:51,244
Speaker 1: shit happens, and shit happens for no reason, or you

202
00:10:51,284 --> 00:10:52,884
Speaker 1: can say, there are these bad guys and there are

203
00:10:52,924 --> 00:10:56,044
Speaker 1: these bad forces, and they actually like have this whole

204
00:10:56,084 --> 00:10:58,804
Speaker 1: big thing, and that's why this is happening. Right, there's

205
00:10:58,804 --> 00:11:01,404
Speaker 1: someone to blame. I have a scapegoat. I can say

206
00:11:01,404 --> 00:11:04,164
Speaker 1: that this is the reason that bad things are happening

207
00:11:04,244 --> 00:11:06,484
Speaker 1: to me, This is the reason why I'm poor, why

208
00:11:06,484 --> 00:11:10,164
Speaker 1: I'm disenfranchised, Why this, Why that because there's this big

209
00:11:10,244 --> 00:11:13,844
Speaker 1: bad thing in the world. Whereas you know, the other

210
00:11:13,884 --> 00:11:17,764
Speaker 1: explanation that it's just random, it's just noise doesn't intuitively

211
00:11:17,804 --> 00:11:21,444
Speaker 1: appeal to the human brain. And there's also been you know,

212
00:11:21,524 --> 00:11:24,484
Speaker 1: a lot of work that shows connections between stress, anxiety,

213
00:11:24,724 --> 00:11:28,164
Speaker 1: all sorts of those types of feelings and conspiratorial thinking.

214
00:11:28,924 --> 00:11:32,044
Speaker 1: When you know, we talked in the past about some

215
00:11:32,124 --> 00:11:34,484
Speaker 1: of my research on why people fall for con artists,

216
00:11:34,684 --> 00:11:37,644
Speaker 1: and you actually see yeah, that ven diagram overlaps a

217
00:11:37,644 --> 00:11:40,524
Speaker 1: lot the people who fall for con artists and the

218
00:11:40,524 --> 00:11:44,124
Speaker 1: people who fall for conspiracy type thinking, because what we

219
00:11:44,244 --> 00:11:47,404
Speaker 1: said with con artists is that you find that people

220
00:11:47,444 --> 00:11:51,284
Speaker 1: when they're in moments of transition, uncertainty, change, anxiety, when

221
00:11:51,284 --> 00:11:54,004
Speaker 1: things are wrong in their life, they love the story,

222
00:11:54,124 --> 00:11:56,964
Speaker 1: the nice narrative that con artists offer, the hope that

223
00:11:57,004 --> 00:12:00,164
Speaker 1: they offer, and conspiracy theories. It's the exact same thing.

224
00:12:00,484 --> 00:12:04,004
Speaker 1: When you're in those types of moments in your life,

225
00:12:04,084 --> 00:12:06,604
Speaker 1: that's when you embrace them. That's when you say, oh,

226
00:12:06,644 --> 00:12:09,084
Speaker 1: you know, well this is happening and this is wrong.

227
00:12:09,484 --> 00:12:12,964
Speaker 1: Funny thing is here, you know, it's an irony here

228
00:12:13,004 --> 00:12:16,204
Speaker 1: that this type of thinking which is embraced by Republican

229
00:12:16,284 --> 00:12:19,804
Speaker 1: followers of Donald Trump and by don you know, stoked

230
00:12:19,804 --> 00:12:21,404
Speaker 1: by Donald Trump, that we see this now in the

231
00:12:21,404 --> 00:12:24,684
Speaker 1: Democrats who might be feeling disenfranchised, who might be feeling

232
00:12:24,724 --> 00:12:26,924
Speaker 1: like people aren't listening to them, and so who might

233
00:12:26,964 --> 00:12:29,084
Speaker 1: who might now be saying, oh, this is staged, and

234
00:12:29,124 --> 00:12:32,044
Speaker 1: so it's funny that it's actually bipartisan, this type of thing.

235
00:12:33,404 --> 00:12:36,964
Speaker 2: You know, you can't have a conspiracy without con I

236
00:12:37,004 --> 00:12:38,964
Speaker 2: guess right, I was gonna ask you about that.

237
00:12:39,444 --> 00:12:40,404
Speaker 3: No, and like and.

238
00:12:41,964 --> 00:12:46,444
Speaker 2: Probably among the like donor elite class, the biggest defender

239
00:12:46,484 --> 00:12:49,124
Speaker 2: of Biden has been Reid Hoffman, who was a founder

240
00:12:49,244 --> 00:12:53,724
Speaker 2: of LinkedIn. His chief strategist a guy named Dimitri. I

241
00:12:53,764 --> 00:12:55,804
Speaker 2: think it's Melhorne M E H L H O r

242
00:12:55,964 --> 00:12:59,164
Speaker 2: N send an email on like Saturday night saying, you know,

243
00:12:59,204 --> 00:13:01,524
Speaker 2: this is a Russian tactic. This is what Putin would do.

244
00:13:02,924 --> 00:13:05,164
Speaker 2: And I don't think it's a coincidence. Maybe it's a

245
00:13:05,164 --> 00:13:09,124
Speaker 2: little unfair, but like, but like you are denying basic

246
00:13:09,164 --> 00:13:12,764
Speaker 2: reac to say it's a good idea to nominate Joe Biden.

247
00:13:13,164 --> 00:13:14,364
Speaker 3: Like never mind even.

248
00:13:14,244 --> 00:13:18,084
Speaker 2: Like the political implications, like this guy shouldn't be president

249
00:13:18,164 --> 00:13:19,044
Speaker 2: for four more years.

250
00:13:19,204 --> 00:13:21,924
Speaker 3: It's just obvious you cannot speak consistently enough.

251
00:13:21,964 --> 00:13:25,164
Speaker 2: And so so you're selecting for and again, two thirds

252
00:13:25,164 --> 00:13:27,404
Speaker 2: of Democratic voters in some polls a little bit less,

253
00:13:27,484 --> 00:13:29,404
Speaker 2: you know, but half to two thirds, depending which pole

254
00:13:29,444 --> 00:13:29,844
Speaker 2: you look at.

255
00:13:30,044 --> 00:13:31,564
Speaker 3: I think the nomination should be replaced.

256
00:13:31,604 --> 00:13:35,444
Speaker 2: So you're you're you know, you're selecting for the one

257
00:13:35,804 --> 00:13:39,084
Speaker 2: third of the party that's like out of touch with reality,

258
00:13:39,124 --> 00:13:43,044
Speaker 2: I guess, But no, Look, I think as someone who

259
00:13:43,084 --> 00:13:45,444
Speaker 2: thinks a lot about as we both do about like

260
00:13:46,764 --> 00:13:50,364
Speaker 2: game theory and incentives. I mean, when you're the party

261
00:13:50,404 --> 00:13:52,964
Speaker 2: that says we are the righteous people, right, we are

262
00:13:53,004 --> 00:13:56,124
Speaker 2: the people that are speaking truth to power. And maybe

263
00:13:56,124 --> 00:13:58,124
Speaker 2: it was true five years ago, but when you when

264
00:13:58,164 --> 00:13:59,964
Speaker 2: you think that and you begin to act like that,

265
00:14:00,204 --> 00:14:03,244
Speaker 2: and then you begin to behave, kind of behave kind

266
00:14:03,284 --> 00:14:05,084
Speaker 2: of badly, when you're like, we're the party who is

267
00:14:05,124 --> 00:14:08,124
Speaker 2: on the side of justice and truth, and like, I

268
00:14:08,164 --> 00:14:11,284
Speaker 2: don't know, I mean, it's deeply disappointed by the way

269
00:14:11,284 --> 00:14:13,724
Speaker 2: I got in a fight with Jamie Harrison, who is

270
00:14:13,764 --> 00:14:16,844
Speaker 2: the head of the Democratic National Committee right out of

271
00:14:16,884 --> 00:14:17,324
Speaker 2: the DNC.

272
00:14:17,724 --> 00:14:20,324
Speaker 1: I mean, where the who looks worse?

273
00:14:21,524 --> 00:14:23,684
Speaker 2: I think he does because I'm just a fucking blogger, right,

274
00:14:23,724 --> 00:14:26,884
Speaker 2: I'm just a little brawler blogger and his job. It's

275
00:14:26,924 --> 00:14:30,124
Speaker 2: the week of the RNC instead of driving messing about

276
00:14:30,124 --> 00:14:31,644
Speaker 2: the DNC. And the reason I gotten into the fight

277
00:14:31,724 --> 00:14:35,244
Speaker 2: is that he is lying and the Democratic Party is

278
00:14:35,324 --> 00:14:38,404
Speaker 2: lying about this need to advance a date at which

279
00:14:38,444 --> 00:14:40,204
Speaker 2: Joe Biden is nominated.

280
00:14:41,364 --> 00:14:44,324
Speaker 3: So the convention is in mid August. What is it like?

281
00:14:44,324 --> 00:14:46,444
Speaker 2: I think the twenty second ish of August is like

282
00:14:46,524 --> 00:14:52,204
Speaker 2: the date, right, somewhere around then. So, however, they are

283
00:14:52,204 --> 00:14:54,564
Speaker 2: claiming that they had to have this virtual role call

284
00:14:55,044 --> 00:14:58,764
Speaker 2: to nominate Biden originally in like a week, and now

285
00:14:58,804 --> 00:15:00,684
Speaker 2: they're pushing it back to August seventh.

286
00:15:01,044 --> 00:15:03,764
Speaker 3: That's just not true, right, It's a lie. Right.

287
00:15:03,804 --> 00:15:06,324
Speaker 2: So the reason is that originally the state of Ohio

288
00:15:07,284 --> 00:15:10,804
Speaker 2: had a law that said you have to nominate your

289
00:15:10,804 --> 00:15:14,084
Speaker 2: canap by August seventh, which is before the Democratic Convention. Right,

290
00:15:15,364 --> 00:15:18,724
Speaker 2: how well that law would have held up in reality,

291
00:15:18,764 --> 00:15:20,324
Speaker 2: I'm not so sure. It would have been subject I

292
00:15:20,324 --> 00:15:23,644
Speaker 2: think to a lot of constitutional and legal challenges. But

293
00:15:23,724 --> 00:15:26,164
Speaker 2: they changed that law and said, Okay, that was stupid.

294
00:15:27,324 --> 00:15:30,044
Speaker 2: Now you have until September first instead, or you have

295
00:15:30,164 --> 00:15:32,484
Speaker 2: you know, there's plenty of time whoever you nominate at

296
00:15:32,524 --> 00:15:34,964
Speaker 2: the convention. It is, by the way, August twenty second

297
00:15:35,044 --> 00:15:38,404
Speaker 2: is a last day will be printed on ballots in Ohio.

298
00:15:40,164 --> 00:15:43,924
Speaker 2: Democrats are claiming that, or Jamie Harrison's claiming, and the

299
00:15:44,004 --> 00:15:46,444
Speaker 2: DNC is claiming that, like, oh, you never know what

300
00:15:46,484 --> 00:15:48,804
Speaker 2: Republicans will do next, and so therefore we have to

301
00:15:48,804 --> 00:15:51,564
Speaker 2: still have this virtual role call ahead of the convention.

302
00:15:51,724 --> 00:15:55,284
Speaker 2: When election law experts say this isn't true, that like

303
00:15:55,404 --> 00:15:58,804
Speaker 2: experts in the primary process have literally called this misinformation.

304
00:16:00,324 --> 00:16:01,844
Speaker 2: I mean, and by the way, it's also you talk

305
00:16:01,884 --> 00:16:03,964
Speaker 2: about like lying and cowardly in the overlap, Well, the

306
00:16:04,044 --> 00:16:07,044
Speaker 2: DNC is in that very much, in that Venn diagram

307
00:16:07,124 --> 00:16:11,404
Speaker 2: of being cowardly and lying to people, because like, first

308
00:16:11,404 --> 00:16:14,244
Speaker 2: of all, the Democratic Party sets its own rules, and

309
00:16:14,244 --> 00:16:17,204
Speaker 2: the rules say that you nominate the candidate at the

310
00:16:17,204 --> 00:16:19,324
Speaker 2: convention and have a vote of the delegates, who are

311
00:16:19,364 --> 00:16:22,004
Speaker 2: by the way, like literally dealt into the process. In

312
00:16:22,044 --> 00:16:25,724
Speaker 2: most states when you vote, if you read the fine print, right,

313
00:16:26,204 --> 00:16:29,644
Speaker 2: it actually says you are voting for delegates to the

314
00:16:29,684 --> 00:16:30,604
Speaker 2: Democratic Convention.

315
00:16:31,004 --> 00:16:32,364
Speaker 3: You're not voting for Joe Biden.

316
00:16:32,484 --> 00:16:34,244
Speaker 2: Technically, I mean, that's like kind of the beauty contest

317
00:16:34,324 --> 00:16:36,684
Speaker 2: aspect of it, right, You're voting for delegates. In some

318
00:16:36,724 --> 00:16:38,884
Speaker 2: states you actually have to check the circle the box

319
00:16:38,924 --> 00:16:39,844
Speaker 2: for the names of delegates.

320
00:16:39,844 --> 00:16:41,364
Speaker 3: In some you don't. It's automatic.

321
00:16:42,164 --> 00:16:45,044
Speaker 2: But like that's the process that's in place, is that

322
00:16:45,084 --> 00:16:49,044
Speaker 2: you have Joe Biden delegates. And in most states, Democratic

323
00:16:49,044 --> 00:16:52,364
Speaker 2: delegates are not legally bound to vote for the candidate

324
00:16:52,404 --> 00:16:55,844
Speaker 2: that they that they were selected for. Right, they have

325
00:16:55,884 --> 00:16:58,044
Speaker 2: a conscious clause that says if you think, in good conscience,

326
00:16:58,084 --> 00:17:01,204
Speaker 2: you can't nominate this candidate, then then you can pick

327
00:17:01,244 --> 00:17:05,084
Speaker 2: somebody else. If there's no majority on the first ballot,

328
00:17:05,084 --> 00:17:08,204
Speaker 2: then also super delegates get involved, are who are not

329
00:17:08,244 --> 00:17:12,124
Speaker 2: necessarily Biden loyals, and they've been trying to circummit this

330
00:17:12,204 --> 00:17:14,884
Speaker 2: process and like and like lying about the need for

331
00:17:14,964 --> 00:17:17,884
Speaker 2: about a law that was changed and which anyway, you

332
00:17:17,924 --> 00:17:19,724
Speaker 2: shouldn't let the Republican Party if you're a Democrat, if

333
00:17:19,724 --> 00:17:22,804
Speaker 2: you're supposed to defend democracy, you shouldn't let the Republican

334
00:17:22,804 --> 00:17:27,124
Speaker 2: Party dictate your terms. I mean that's like bad strategy.

335
00:17:28,564 --> 00:17:32,244
Speaker 2: And I'm not sure, like who are they trying to bluff?

336
00:17:32,284 --> 00:17:34,244
Speaker 2: I mean, they're they're not just liars. They're like the

337
00:17:34,244 --> 00:17:36,284
Speaker 2: stupidest fucking liars I've ever fucking met in my life.

338
00:17:36,324 --> 00:17:39,244
Speaker 2: They're running a bad, obvious bluff and they and they

339
00:17:39,444 --> 00:17:42,204
Speaker 2: have such a short time horizon, meaning they're trying to

340
00:17:42,204 --> 00:17:44,884
Speaker 2: win the news cycle and not thinking about like, well,

341
00:17:44,924 --> 00:17:47,484
Speaker 2: you're just kind of digging yourself a deeper hole and

342
00:17:47,524 --> 00:17:52,164
Speaker 2: like torturing your credibility later on. It just it's offensive

343
00:17:52,204 --> 00:17:55,284
Speaker 2: to me, yeah, now as an American voter, but also

344
00:17:55,324 --> 00:17:58,604
Speaker 2: as like someone who cares about like strategy, like what

345
00:17:58,644 --> 00:17:59,404
Speaker 2: are they doing?

346
00:17:59,844 --> 00:18:02,644
Speaker 1: No, I mean they're playing a very short game, which

347
00:18:03,404 --> 00:18:06,764
Speaker 1: you know people people ask me sometimes about you know,

348
00:18:06,844 --> 00:18:09,244
Speaker 1: Oh well, since I'm working on a book about cheating, right,

349
00:18:09,844 --> 00:18:13,004
Speaker 1: why why don't people like cheat more in these types

350
00:18:13,044 --> 00:18:15,924
Speaker 1: of situations where they're talking about like poker or something

351
00:18:15,964 --> 00:18:20,044
Speaker 1: like that. And I always say, well, you can't. You know,

352
00:18:20,284 --> 00:18:21,964
Speaker 1: you can think about, Okay, you can cheat in one

353
00:18:22,044 --> 00:18:26,204
Speaker 1: game and you know, make off with however much money. However,

354
00:18:27,724 --> 00:18:31,364
Speaker 1: you need to consider reputational costs and what this actually means.

355
00:18:31,684 --> 00:18:34,444
Speaker 1: If you get caught, if you develop that reputation, that's it, right,

356
00:18:34,484 --> 00:18:37,244
Speaker 1: Like you're done. You will never you will never be

357
00:18:37,284 --> 00:18:39,444
Speaker 1: able to be in this ecosystem again, or at least

358
00:18:39,484 --> 00:18:40,364
Speaker 1: that's how it should be.

359
00:18:44,604 --> 00:18:57,444
Speaker 4: We'll be back in just a minute now.

360
00:18:57,764 --> 00:19:00,804
Speaker 1: The reason that sometimes cheating does happen, and right now,

361
00:19:01,044 --> 00:19:03,084
Speaker 1: I know we're talking about lying versus cheating, but there

362
00:19:03,084 --> 00:19:06,364
Speaker 1: are similar types of things. When you're talking about game theory,

363
00:19:06,444 --> 00:19:08,724
Speaker 1: right when you break the rules, when you when you

364
00:19:08,764 --> 00:19:12,204
Speaker 1: misrepresent what's going on. Is if you think that you're

365
00:19:12,244 --> 00:19:14,404
Speaker 1: going to be able to get away with it, and

366
00:19:14,444 --> 00:19:18,444
Speaker 1: that there will be enough kind of gray area around

367
00:19:18,724 --> 00:19:21,044
Speaker 1: whether or not you actually did it. And if you

368
00:19:21,084 --> 00:19:23,884
Speaker 1: think that there aren't going to be repercussions, even if

369
00:19:24,244 --> 00:19:28,044
Speaker 1: it turns out that people did catch you cheating, right,

370
00:19:28,124 --> 00:19:30,804
Speaker 1: even if you know they say, okay, yes I cheated,

371
00:19:30,804 --> 00:19:33,084
Speaker 1: but I'm changed now, I'm better, and there are no

372
00:19:33,164 --> 00:19:36,844
Speaker 1: repercussions and you're allowed back into the community. Then that's

373
00:19:36,884 --> 00:19:40,124
Speaker 1: when cheating becomes profitable. And when you realize, Okay, you know,

374
00:19:40,924 --> 00:19:43,444
Speaker 1: in this one off, I cheated. I defected. If we're

375
00:19:43,444 --> 00:19:47,764
Speaker 1: talking game theoretical terms, right, I defected, I made I

376
00:19:47,844 --> 00:19:49,604
Speaker 1: made the payoff. You know, I was the bad guy.

377
00:19:49,804 --> 00:19:52,404
Speaker 1: But then they let me play the game again. They said, okay,

378
00:19:52,404 --> 00:19:55,164
Speaker 1: we forgive you. We believe that you're not going to

379
00:19:55,244 --> 00:19:58,324
Speaker 1: do it again, and you can keep playing. Then that

380
00:19:58,564 --> 00:20:02,644
Speaker 1: actually incentivizes it. So I'm wondering, Nate, do you think

381
00:20:02,684 --> 00:20:06,724
Speaker 1: that that sort of dynamic might possibly be in play

382
00:20:06,804 --> 00:20:07,724
Speaker 1: in their thinking here?

383
00:20:09,164 --> 00:20:09,364
Speaker 3: No?

384
00:20:09,404 --> 00:20:12,204
Speaker 2: Oh, because I think if Biden loses, then they're gonna

385
00:20:12,244 --> 00:20:16,004
Speaker 2: be incredible recriminations and like the people associated with it

386
00:20:16,044 --> 00:20:18,924
Speaker 2: will be like I mean, look, famously, it's hard to

387
00:20:18,964 --> 00:20:22,124
Speaker 2: get permanently kicked out of a party, but like, look,

388
00:20:22,164 --> 00:20:26,004
Speaker 2: people have like for literally two years been saying this

389
00:20:26,084 --> 00:20:30,164
Speaker 2: might be a bad idea to renominate Biden, but particularly

390
00:20:30,204 --> 00:20:32,004
Speaker 2: since the debate, right, this will be like the most

391
00:20:32,684 --> 00:20:36,964
Speaker 2: widely predicted slow motion car crash and political history, and

392
00:20:37,004 --> 00:20:40,004
Speaker 2: the people that are responsible for it will Again I'm

393
00:20:40,044 --> 00:20:43,924
Speaker 2: cynical about the Democratic Party and the Republican Party certainly,

394
00:20:45,244 --> 00:20:47,804
Speaker 2: but like, I think that, like, if you're one of

395
00:20:47,804 --> 00:20:50,804
Speaker 2: these people, if you're Jamie Harrison or Ron Klain who's

396
00:20:50,844 --> 00:20:53,244
Speaker 2: one of the chief strategists for Biden, or these other people, right,

397
00:20:53,564 --> 00:20:55,724
Speaker 2: I think you're gonna be remembered by history, or at

398
00:20:55,804 --> 00:20:59,884
Speaker 2: least by Democrats in history, as a villain. So I'm

399
00:20:59,924 --> 00:21:03,564
Speaker 2: going to offer amnesty to Jamie Harrison or Ron Klain

400
00:21:03,604 --> 00:21:09,724
Speaker 2: and whatever else. Renounce this horrible decision you're making. Come

401
00:21:09,764 --> 00:21:13,044
Speaker 2: on this program and renounce it, or come on and

402
00:21:13,084 --> 00:21:15,244
Speaker 2: like and let's have an actual conversation and have an

403
00:21:15,284 --> 00:21:19,604
Speaker 2: adult conversation and a real conversation about strategy, right, and

404
00:21:19,644 --> 00:21:21,884
Speaker 2: not lie to people. Come on this program, and then

405
00:21:21,964 --> 00:21:24,924
Speaker 2: I will promise not to write mean tweets about you

406
00:21:24,964 --> 00:21:25,444
Speaker 2: ever again.

407
00:21:26,244 --> 00:21:29,684
Speaker 1: Yes, and the only F bombs will be in conversation

408
00:21:30,644 --> 00:21:30,884
Speaker 1: and a.

409
00:21:31,004 --> 00:21:35,364
Speaker 3: Very organic yes organic No.

410
00:21:35,444 --> 00:21:37,964
Speaker 1: I mean I think I don't know, Like it feels

411
00:21:37,964 --> 00:21:40,804
Speaker 1: like every single episode these days, you and I are

412
00:21:40,844 --> 00:21:44,804
Speaker 1: talking about sunk cost fallacies, but like once. But it's

413
00:21:44,884 --> 00:21:48,924
Speaker 1: just we're seeing it over and over, just like what

414
00:21:48,924 --> 00:21:51,484
Speaker 1: you're saying right now, come on and kind of renounce it.

415
00:21:51,484 --> 00:21:54,444
Speaker 1: It does not mean that you know you were an idiot.

416
00:21:54,484 --> 00:21:58,724
Speaker 1: It means that you're being smart now. Information changes and

417
00:21:58,764 --> 00:22:02,044
Speaker 1: you have to change your decision when the information set

418
00:22:02,124 --> 00:22:04,604
Speaker 1: tells you that you need to change your decision. That's

419
00:22:04,684 --> 00:22:06,924
Speaker 1: the smart thing to do. That's the responsible thing to do.

420
00:22:07,164 --> 00:22:09,284
Speaker 1: That's the intelligent thing to do. It makes you look good.

421
00:22:09,644 --> 00:22:12,884
Speaker 1: It does not make you look weak. And this, this

422
00:22:12,964 --> 00:22:16,684
Speaker 1: whole you know, this whole thing is about being afraid

423
00:22:16,724 --> 00:22:19,324
Speaker 1: to look weak. And I think that that's something that's

424
00:22:19,684 --> 00:22:22,284
Speaker 1: uniting the Democrats who are afraid to kind of speak

425
00:22:22,324 --> 00:22:27,084
Speaker 1: out more. It's uniting Biden in being afraid to step down.

426
00:22:27,484 --> 00:22:30,324
Speaker 1: Everyone is afraid that, oh, this will make me look

427
00:22:30,404 --> 00:22:33,884
Speaker 1: like less of a man. Sorry, but it is a

428
00:22:33,964 --> 00:22:36,524
Speaker 1: very masculine thing to do that, even though you know

429
00:22:36,644 --> 00:22:40,364
Speaker 1: RBG yet we talked about females doing similar things, but

430
00:22:40,444 --> 00:22:44,044
Speaker 1: it is often like a very macho thing, Like I

431
00:22:44,164 --> 00:22:46,604
Speaker 1: do not want to look weak. I do not want

432
00:22:46,684 --> 00:22:49,644
Speaker 1: to look like I'm wishy washy changing my mind, et cetera.

433
00:22:50,444 --> 00:22:54,564
Speaker 1: And that actually is what looks weak. And sometimes the

434
00:22:54,684 --> 00:22:57,564
Speaker 1: much stronger thing is saying, okay, you know, time to

435
00:22:57,644 --> 00:22:59,684
Speaker 1: time to change my mind, time to admit I was wrong.

436
00:23:00,084 --> 00:23:02,484
Speaker 1: And it takes, you know, it takes a lot of

437
00:23:02,524 --> 00:23:06,364
Speaker 1: guts to say I was wrong. You know, I'm sorry,

438
00:23:06,844 --> 00:23:10,524
Speaker 1: Mia culpa. Let's let's move on from this playing field.

439
00:23:10,724 --> 00:23:12,924
Speaker 1: But I think that that needs to happen. But Nate,

440
00:23:13,004 --> 00:23:17,004
Speaker 1: I'm actually, as we get into mid July now closer

441
00:23:17,004 --> 00:23:20,484
Speaker 1: and closer to August, like I'm starting to I don't

442
00:23:20,484 --> 00:23:23,324
Speaker 1: know if despair is the right word, but like it's

443
00:23:23,564 --> 00:23:26,404
Speaker 1: the odds of Biden stepping aside to me seem to

444
00:23:26,444 --> 00:23:29,804
Speaker 1: be going down, at least in my own personal mind.

445
00:23:30,564 --> 00:23:33,724
Speaker 1: I'm curious what your personal take is on this. Are

446
00:23:33,764 --> 00:23:37,004
Speaker 1: you are you seeing are you still? Are you still

447
00:23:37,084 --> 00:23:39,684
Speaker 1: much more confident than I am that Biden will step aside?

448
00:23:39,804 --> 00:23:41,964
Speaker 1: Or are you losing a little confidence? As well as

449
00:23:41,964 --> 00:23:44,364
Speaker 1: partly closer and closer if.

450
00:23:44,204 --> 00:23:46,644
Speaker 2: You go to Polymarket, which I should disclose I am

451
00:23:46,684 --> 00:23:49,164
Speaker 2: kind of proudly an advisory to Polymarket, but it is

452
00:23:49,204 --> 00:23:53,804
Speaker 2: the most robust of the exchanges. Biden has a thirty

453
00:23:53,924 --> 00:23:59,164
Speaker 2: seven seven percent chance of dropping out. I think I'd

454
00:23:59,204 --> 00:24:02,244
Speaker 2: still buy that. I think i'd probably put it at

455
00:24:02,244 --> 00:24:04,124
Speaker 2: closer to fifty to fifty. But as you were implying, Maria,

456
00:24:04,164 --> 00:24:06,724
Speaker 2: like I was above fifty to fifty, and maybe that

457
00:24:07,564 --> 00:24:12,444
Speaker 2: maybe that like concedes to much rationality to the Democratic Party.

458
00:24:12,604 --> 00:24:15,044
Speaker 2: But like, yeah, what's like kind of the the catalyst.

459
00:24:15,084 --> 00:24:17,924
Speaker 2: You wouldn't expect it to come this week because it

460
00:24:17,964 --> 00:24:21,284
Speaker 2: is like the RNC. It's a little bit weird to

461
00:24:21,364 --> 00:24:24,444
Speaker 2: be like Jimmy Harrison off message and fighting with people.

462
00:24:24,564 --> 00:24:26,884
Speaker 2: I'm not a Democrat, but like fighting with people who

463
00:24:27,684 --> 00:24:30,164
Speaker 2: would ordinarily be sympathetic to you when the other party's

464
00:24:30,164 --> 00:24:32,004
Speaker 2: having it's conventioned. You want a message that like jd

465
00:24:32,124 --> 00:24:34,124
Speaker 2: Vance is this guy that's not very good, not many

466
00:24:34,164 --> 00:24:38,724
Speaker 2: whatever else. I think next week is kind of I

467
00:24:38,764 --> 00:24:42,204
Speaker 2: wouldn't say, like the last straw, because until August twenty second,

468
00:24:42,284 --> 00:24:44,484
Speaker 2: or if they moved in earlier August seventh or whatever

469
00:24:44,484 --> 00:24:46,564
Speaker 2: it is, right and even after that, by the way,

470
00:24:47,684 --> 00:24:50,524
Speaker 2: the candidate, like if Biden dies, if Biden's dominated August

471
00:24:50,564 --> 00:24:53,604
Speaker 2: twenty second and dies the next day, August twenty third,

472
00:24:54,084 --> 00:24:57,564
Speaker 2: you can still have the RN or the DNC rather

473
00:24:57,844 --> 00:25:00,084
Speaker 2: replace the candidate, and by that point it would still

474
00:25:00,084 --> 00:25:03,204
Speaker 2: be time to like print up new ballots. By the way,

475
00:25:03,204 --> 00:25:05,764
Speaker 2: if you're one of these Democrats who like is like, well,

476
00:25:05,804 --> 00:25:08,164
Speaker 2: whin Spiden's nomine you'll have to like root for him

477
00:25:08,164 --> 00:25:09,764
Speaker 2: and point out like, no, don't do that, can't you

478
00:25:09,804 --> 00:25:11,724
Speaker 2: can't do that. You're playing You're playing a long game here.

479
00:25:11,764 --> 00:25:14,324
Speaker 2: I'm gonna notice and I will send me in tweets

480
00:25:14,364 --> 00:25:19,124
Speaker 2: about people that like that, like have been team replaced Biden,

481
00:25:19,164 --> 00:25:20,604
Speaker 2: and then all of a sudden they say, well, we

482
00:25:20,684 --> 00:25:22,364
Speaker 2: have to defend that. It's like, no, you don't want

483
00:25:22,364 --> 00:25:27,124
Speaker 2: to bet behavior that's this bad and that's just dishonest.

484
00:25:27,244 --> 00:25:31,764
Speaker 1: Right yeah, well let's let's uh. In terms of people

485
00:25:31,804 --> 00:25:34,564
Speaker 1: who were you know, replaced Biden and now Team Biden,

486
00:25:34,884 --> 00:25:38,164
Speaker 1: I think we have a very huge example of something

487
00:25:38,204 --> 00:25:41,644
Speaker 1: similar on the Republican side, where the nominee for VP

488
00:25:42,524 --> 00:25:46,164
Speaker 1: jd Vance was team Never Trump and then and then

489
00:25:46,284 --> 00:25:50,564
Speaker 1: became the vice presidential nominee and seems like he might

490
00:25:50,564 --> 00:25:54,084
Speaker 1: potentially be like a true believer convert, which are your

491
00:25:54,164 --> 00:25:56,924
Speaker 1: your best allies? I saw a cartoon, which to me

492
00:25:57,924 --> 00:26:01,044
Speaker 1: just really summed it up. It was a cartoon of JD.

493
00:26:01,164 --> 00:26:06,284
Speaker 1: Vance and the caption said something like, yes, sir, I'm

494
00:26:06,324 --> 00:26:10,004
Speaker 1: so sorry that I compared you to America's Hitler and

495
00:26:10,364 --> 00:26:13,004
Speaker 1: so relieved that you took it as a compliment, And

496
00:26:13,764 --> 00:26:16,604
Speaker 1: that just about just about summed it up perfectly.

497
00:26:17,364 --> 00:26:19,804
Speaker 2: So we're god because like in another world, like JD.

498
00:26:19,924 --> 00:26:22,404
Speaker 2: Vance would be hosting a podcast or something, right.

499
00:26:22,404 --> 00:26:25,084
Speaker 1: Absolutely, absolutely. It's so funny by the way, when people

500
00:26:25,084 --> 00:26:26,844
Speaker 1: are like, oh, he was such a natural speaker at

501
00:26:26,844 --> 00:26:28,724
Speaker 1: the convention, I'm like, yeah, no, shit, like that's what

502
00:26:28,844 --> 00:26:31,444
Speaker 1: he used to do, right, Like he was a best

503
00:26:31,444 --> 00:26:34,924
Speaker 1: selling author who who was kind of this pundit and

504
00:26:35,564 --> 00:26:38,884
Speaker 1: ended up, you know, being able to win a senatorial

505
00:26:38,924 --> 00:26:42,684
Speaker 1: seat with zero experience. I mean, whose first political office

506
00:26:42,844 --> 00:26:45,764
Speaker 1: is senate? Is you a senate? Like how often does

507
00:26:45,804 --> 00:26:48,284
Speaker 1: that happen? I actually don't know the answer to that 's.

508
00:26:48,524 --> 00:26:51,484
Speaker 2: Like it's pretty rare because we you know, I've actually

509
00:26:51,564 --> 00:26:55,244
Speaker 2: modeled congressional races and there's a variable for like what

510
00:26:55,324 --> 00:26:57,524
Speaker 2: elected office have you held before. There's like a four

511
00:26:57,604 --> 00:27:00,564
Speaker 2: tier system, right and jd Vance is in tier zero.

512
00:27:00,724 --> 00:27:02,484
Speaker 2: He has not held elected office before. I think he

513
00:27:02,524 --> 00:27:04,204
Speaker 2: hadn't run for elected office before.

514
00:27:05,884 --> 00:27:07,604
Speaker 3: I'm not sure what you think, Like I do think.

515
00:27:07,484 --> 00:27:12,604
Speaker 2: Like objectively unquote, he's you know, in the certainly upper

516
00:27:12,724 --> 00:27:17,204
Speaker 2: tier of like the Q spectrum, I guess, but I

517
00:27:17,204 --> 00:27:19,964
Speaker 2: don't know. I think someone who's very smart and very

518
00:27:20,964 --> 00:27:23,684
Speaker 2: craven maybe is not the best.

519
00:27:24,164 --> 00:27:26,324
Speaker 1: No, I mean I think that's no. I think that

520
00:27:26,324 --> 00:27:28,364
Speaker 1: that's actually very dangerous. You know who else is very

521
00:27:28,444 --> 00:27:31,804
Speaker 1: very smart and in the upper echelon of IQ skills

522
00:27:32,244 --> 00:27:36,964
Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin, Right, So he was also someone who people thought, oh,

523
00:27:37,004 --> 00:27:39,764
Speaker 1: he's not serious, he's just using this as like, you know,

524
00:27:39,844 --> 00:27:42,604
Speaker 1: he doesn't actually believe all this stuff, like let's install

525
00:27:42,684 --> 00:27:46,084
Speaker 1: him to power in Russia and he's going to be

526
00:27:46,164 --> 00:27:50,044
Speaker 1: easily pliable and malleable and do what we say and hahaha, right,

527
00:27:50,164 --> 00:27:53,724
Speaker 1: jokes on you, like, absolutely fucking not. He was exactly

528
00:27:53,764 --> 00:27:56,364
Speaker 1: what you know what he is now, and he was

529
00:27:56,404 --> 00:27:58,684
Speaker 1: just very smart and playing the very very long game.

530
00:27:58,844 --> 00:28:01,564
Speaker 1: And I actually see TRACE's advance in that. I think

531
00:28:01,564 --> 00:28:03,684
Speaker 1: he's very smart. I think he's playing the long game.

532
00:28:04,004 --> 00:28:07,884
Speaker 1: I think he is absolutely devoid of a moral center

533
00:28:08,684 --> 00:28:12,564
Speaker 1: and he wants power, and that is very very scary,

534
00:28:13,204 --> 00:28:15,964
Speaker 1: and that is something where he overlaps with Donald Trump.

535
00:28:16,164 --> 00:28:18,844
Speaker 1: I think they're both. This is why, you know, when

536
00:28:18,924 --> 00:28:22,004
Speaker 1: I've talked before about Donald Trump as a con artist,

537
00:28:22,124 --> 00:28:23,684
Speaker 1: said what motivates conn artists?

538
00:28:23,724 --> 00:28:24,044
Speaker 3: Power?

539
00:28:24,244 --> 00:28:28,164
Speaker 1: Control, control over other people. That's the that's the main motivation.

540
00:28:28,484 --> 00:28:31,964
Speaker 1: And I think that that's what Trump sees Advance. That's

541
00:28:32,124 --> 00:28:35,684
Speaker 1: somewhere where they completely overlap. And that's a very scary ticket,

542
00:28:35,764 --> 00:28:38,924
Speaker 1: especially since you know jd. Vance is young, and he

543
00:28:39,164 --> 00:28:41,724
Speaker 1: is a very good speaker, and he is good at

544
00:28:41,764 --> 00:28:45,564
Speaker 1: appealing to people, and so you know, if Trump wins,

545
00:28:46,284 --> 00:28:50,604
Speaker 1: the chance of Jadvan's becoming the next president is not low.

546
00:28:51,364 --> 00:28:55,004
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know people talk about the implications for this November,

547
00:28:55,044 --> 00:28:58,804
Speaker 2: but like if you're a VP nominee for a major party,

548
00:28:58,844 --> 00:29:01,444
Speaker 2: particularly one that is more likely than not to win

549
00:29:01,444 --> 00:29:03,524
Speaker 2: this election, then and there's like a you know, there's

550
00:29:03,524 --> 00:29:06,004
Speaker 2: like a fifty to fifty is chance that Jadvan's become

551
00:29:06,644 --> 00:29:08,644
Speaker 2: president at some point. By the way, the first person

552
00:29:08,724 --> 00:29:11,404
Speaker 2: on a presidential take get nominated, who's like, who's younger

553
00:29:11,444 --> 00:29:11,724
Speaker 2: than me?

554
00:29:11,964 --> 00:29:12,124
Speaker 3: Right?

555
00:29:12,164 --> 00:29:15,564
Speaker 2: When when Tom Brady retired, right, he was the one

556
00:29:15,684 --> 00:29:17,644
Speaker 2: athlete who was like older than me, Like that was

557
00:29:17,964 --> 00:29:21,284
Speaker 2: that was depressing. And now you have a nominee who's

558
00:29:21,324 --> 00:29:25,164
Speaker 2: younger and shorter than me for vice president in the Republican.

559
00:29:24,804 --> 00:29:27,964
Speaker 3: Party five six, five nine ish.

560
00:29:27,364 --> 00:29:29,004
Speaker 1: Well he's five six, he's shorter than me.

561
00:29:29,924 --> 00:29:32,524
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, and there have not been very many short

562
00:29:32,524 --> 00:29:36,004
Speaker 2: presidents elected recently. We can debate whether that's signal or noise,

563
00:29:36,124 --> 00:29:39,924
Speaker 2: I suppose, but but yeah, and also you kind of

564
00:29:39,964 --> 00:29:41,524
Speaker 2: like you kind of become.

565
00:29:43,124 --> 00:29:43,524
Speaker 3: The con.

566
00:29:43,644 --> 00:29:45,404
Speaker 2: It's some I mean, I I don't want to say

567
00:29:45,404 --> 00:29:47,484
Speaker 2: he's a con, but like it's hard to maintain, like

568
00:29:47,884 --> 00:29:49,564
Speaker 2: I don't want to play this role as character.

569
00:29:50,404 --> 00:29:52,924
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think. I don't think it's possible. And

570
00:29:53,044 --> 00:29:57,124
Speaker 1: I think that he has shown himself capable of these

571
00:29:57,564 --> 00:30:00,364
Speaker 1: absolute shifts by the way, he had a section of

572
00:30:00,404 --> 00:30:03,924
Speaker 1: his website which was like I'm one hundred percent anti abortion,

573
00:30:04,644 --> 00:30:07,564
Speaker 1: no abortions ever, blah blah blah, like went on and on,

574
00:30:07,804 --> 00:30:10,724
Speaker 1: and it seems that that section was deleted, and so

575
00:30:11,324 --> 00:30:13,204
Speaker 1: you know that I don't know if it's still deleted

576
00:30:13,284 --> 00:30:15,364
Speaker 1: or if it's back up. That's why that's why I'm

577
00:30:15,364 --> 00:30:19,724
Speaker 1: padging this. But someone who who is basically capable of

578
00:30:19,764 --> 00:30:22,804
Speaker 1: these like complete pivots in the moment. You know, Trump

579
00:30:22,844 --> 00:30:26,484
Speaker 1: isn't America's next hitler. Donald Trump is the savior you know,

580
00:30:26,564 --> 00:30:30,324
Speaker 1: these types of things. Is someone who's incredibly dangerous because

581
00:30:30,364 --> 00:30:35,004
Speaker 1: it's someone who really really has, as I said, no

582
00:30:35,084 --> 00:30:39,724
Speaker 1: moral center, but also just no conviction, no self other

583
00:30:39,884 --> 00:30:42,564
Speaker 1: than you know, what self do I need to be

584
00:30:42,964 --> 00:30:45,484
Speaker 1: to put myself in the position of greatest power?

585
00:30:45,804 --> 00:30:45,964
Speaker 3: Right?

586
00:30:46,044 --> 00:30:47,684
Speaker 1: What do I need to do? What face do I

587
00:30:47,724 --> 00:30:50,244
Speaker 1: need to put on? The ultimate con artist, kind of

588
00:30:50,284 --> 00:30:53,204
Speaker 1: the impostor the person who can be anyone to anyone

589
00:30:53,284 --> 00:30:56,604
Speaker 1: depending on what's going on. But the fact that he

590
00:30:56,684 --> 00:30:59,284
Speaker 1: did have these you know, one hundred percent anti abortion,

591
00:30:59,324 --> 00:31:01,644
Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera, I think does show kind of

592
00:31:01,764 --> 00:31:04,604
Speaker 1: some of his views and some of the things that

593
00:31:05,084 --> 00:31:07,964
Speaker 1: he does take with him. And you know, I've heard

594
00:31:09,044 --> 00:31:11,524
Speaker 1: I've heard people say, and I think that this makes

595
00:31:11,564 --> 00:31:14,284
Speaker 1: a lot of sense that another reason why he's so

596
00:31:14,404 --> 00:31:17,444
Speaker 1: good on the Trump ticket is he's someone who's you know,

597
00:31:17,924 --> 00:31:21,444
Speaker 1: he is someone who it will be very focused on

598
00:31:21,524 --> 00:31:25,204
Speaker 1: actually pulling those levers of power to pass the very

599
00:31:25,244 --> 00:31:29,364
Speaker 1: conservative America First agenda. Unlike people he's being compared to.

600
00:31:29,724 --> 00:31:31,724
Speaker 1: Some people are comparing him to Reagan or to Nixon,

601
00:31:32,524 --> 00:31:36,084
Speaker 1: but you know, those presidents were much more global minded

602
00:31:36,124 --> 00:31:38,644
Speaker 1: as well, and JD. Vance seems like he's going to

603
00:31:38,684 --> 00:31:41,804
Speaker 1: be very much America first. I mean, he was one

604
00:31:41,844 --> 00:31:47,244
Speaker 1: of the leading voices against against Ukraine, right against aid

605
00:31:47,284 --> 00:31:51,364
Speaker 1: to Ukraine, which is you know, and against all of

606
00:31:51,404 --> 00:31:55,044
Speaker 1: these packages, which is really troubling because if you think

607
00:31:55,084 --> 00:31:57,884
Speaker 1: about the fact that we have to think about, you know,

608
00:31:58,284 --> 00:32:01,164
Speaker 1: global alliances, the fact that when Trump was president he

609
00:32:01,284 --> 00:32:03,604
Speaker 1: pulled out of a lot of these different agreements, that

610
00:32:03,964 --> 00:32:06,844
Speaker 1: a lot of them were fraying, and that Biden has

611
00:32:06,884 --> 00:32:09,244
Speaker 1: tried to kind of do do the opposite, undo some

612
00:32:09,244 --> 00:32:11,644
Speaker 1: of that. But now if we have a Trump Advance ticket,

613
00:32:11,844 --> 00:32:14,364
Speaker 1: you know, think, let's think ahead, because you need to.

614
00:32:14,724 --> 00:32:17,924
Speaker 1: Elections are not just about this year. We're talking about

615
00:32:17,924 --> 00:32:20,164
Speaker 1: the next four years, about the next eight years. We're

616
00:32:20,204 --> 00:32:24,044
Speaker 1: talking about a huge chunk of political future and personal

617
00:32:24,084 --> 00:32:26,044
Speaker 1: future for a lot of people. And you have to

618
00:32:26,084 --> 00:32:28,244
Speaker 1: when you think in those terms, it becomes very frightening

619
00:32:28,484 --> 00:32:31,604
Speaker 1: to think of a president and a vice president who

620
00:32:31,684 --> 00:32:35,004
Speaker 1: feel the way they feel about involvement in the external world.

621
00:32:35,324 --> 00:32:38,724
Speaker 1: What does that mean, you know, for America's role in

622
00:32:38,764 --> 00:32:40,964
Speaker 1: the world, What does that mean for foreign conflicts. What

623
00:32:40,964 --> 00:32:43,124
Speaker 1: does that mean for everything? I mean to me, like

624
00:32:43,764 --> 00:32:47,924
Speaker 1: those things are obviously as a woman, like the abortion

625
00:32:47,964 --> 00:32:52,484
Speaker 1: stuff is very personal and like very immediate and very

626
00:32:52,484 --> 00:32:55,244
Speaker 1: worrisome on that level. But I'm also very worried as

627
00:32:55,244 --> 00:32:57,764
Speaker 1: a human being, as an immigrant, as a gommal citizen,

628
00:32:58,004 --> 00:33:00,724
Speaker 1: you know, as someone whose dad is Ukrainian, right, Like,

629
00:33:01,084 --> 00:33:03,364
Speaker 1: I'm very worried about the implications of things like that

630
00:33:03,444 --> 00:33:06,284
Speaker 1: as well. And I think that we haven't talked enough

631
00:33:06,324 --> 00:33:10,244
Speaker 1: about that, and people are just being way too focused

632
00:33:10,284 --> 00:33:14,244
Speaker 1: on the present moment. And I'm actually quite concerned about

633
00:33:14,244 --> 00:33:16,004
Speaker 1: the JD. Van's nomination.

634
00:33:16,524 --> 00:33:20,004
Speaker 3: Yeah, Trump has soft pedaled abortion a little bit.

635
00:33:20,964 --> 00:33:22,804
Speaker 2: I mean, look, if you look at the two parties,

636
00:33:22,884 --> 00:33:27,364
Speaker 2: and it seems like Republicans care about witting more, which,

637
00:33:27,524 --> 00:33:30,244
Speaker 2: since elections are a popularity contest, is something which I

638
00:33:30,244 --> 00:33:33,924
Speaker 2: find not admirable exactly, but like at least strategically wise.

639
00:33:34,324 --> 00:33:37,324
Speaker 2: Although with this pick, you know, Ohio is not a

640
00:33:37,364 --> 00:33:39,884
Speaker 2: swing state, I do not understand how he appeals to

641
00:33:39,924 --> 00:33:42,724
Speaker 2: swing voters. Maybe he'll give a good speech, I guess

642
00:33:42,724 --> 00:33:45,284
Speaker 2: tonight as we're taking this is like going to be

643
00:33:45,324 --> 00:33:48,284
Speaker 2: his convention speech, but like it seems like.

644
00:33:48,364 --> 00:33:49,844
Speaker 3: Not I don't know.

645
00:33:49,924 --> 00:33:55,244
Speaker 2: Apparently they're reporting that like Trump wanted to pick Doug Burgham,

646
00:33:55,324 --> 00:33:58,444
Speaker 2: who is the governor of North Dakota, and was dissuaded

647
00:33:58,484 --> 00:34:01,884
Speaker 2: by it by Eric Trump, his son, and his other son,

648
00:34:02,004 --> 00:34:05,484
Speaker 2: Donald Trump Junior. So we think that like, oh, we

649
00:34:05,564 --> 00:34:08,444
Speaker 2: kind of model out. Oh here's this rational behavior. You

650
00:34:08,564 --> 00:34:12,164
Speaker 2: have some phdcs rational behavior among political balltapah. Right, Actually,

651
00:34:12,124 --> 00:34:14,804
Speaker 2: it's just fucking Eric Trump and Donald Trump Junior on

652
00:34:14,844 --> 00:34:18,604
Speaker 2: the one hand, and apparently, according to other reporting, hunter

653
00:34:18,724 --> 00:34:21,244
Speaker 2: fucking Biden and Jill Biden on the other end.

654
00:34:21,804 --> 00:34:22,764
Speaker 3: That was just beside.

655
00:34:23,764 --> 00:34:27,924
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, on both sides. Right, who is the advisors?

656
00:34:28,324 --> 00:34:32,444
Speaker 1: Who's actually advising? Like your sons, your wife and your son.

657
00:34:32,804 --> 00:34:35,364
Speaker 1: I mean, this is it is. It is kind of crazy.

658
00:34:35,524 --> 00:34:38,044
Speaker 1: It would be hilarious if it weren't so serious, if

659
00:34:38,084 --> 00:34:41,284
Speaker 1: we weren't actually in an election. Yeah, okay, So Nate,

660
00:34:41,764 --> 00:34:45,644
Speaker 1: bottom line, what does the fact that Donald Trump has

661
00:34:45,684 --> 00:34:50,564
Speaker 1: picked JD. Vance as his vice presidential nominee mean for

662
00:34:50,724 --> 00:34:52,404
Speaker 1: his chances of winning the election?

663
00:34:53,844 --> 00:34:56,084
Speaker 2: Look, I think it means, among other things, that he's

664
00:34:56,124 --> 00:35:00,804
Speaker 2: not ticking the high road. I mean, Vance is quite partisan.

665
00:35:01,084 --> 00:35:03,964
Speaker 2: After the assassination attempt by the way, He sent out

666
00:35:04,004 --> 00:35:08,364
Speaker 2: a tweet saying that, like Joe, Biden's rhetoric was like

667
00:35:08,724 --> 00:35:13,524
Speaker 2: responsible for for the environment that led to the assassination attempt.

668
00:35:14,684 --> 00:35:16,084
Speaker 2: Before he was picked, it was kind of like a

669
00:35:16,164 --> 00:35:18,164
Speaker 2: raise your hand, oh, mabie me like teacher, teacher, pick me,

670
00:35:18,244 --> 00:35:18,804
Speaker 2: picked me, pick me.

671
00:35:19,764 --> 00:35:21,164
Speaker 3: But no, it's it's.

672
00:35:20,924 --> 00:35:24,684
Speaker 2: A not the high road approach, and I think not

673
00:35:24,804 --> 00:35:28,924
Speaker 2: the smartest one. Look, Trump might have picked somebody totally wacky,

674
00:35:29,044 --> 00:35:32,244
Speaker 2: right at least this guy, uh has been a center

675
00:35:32,284 --> 00:35:33,684
Speaker 2: for a year and a half, or he's been in

676
00:35:33,684 --> 00:35:37,084
Speaker 2: the military. Best selling author, you know, Maria, as best

677
00:35:37,084 --> 00:35:41,004
Speaker 2: selling authors, we should be championing our author turned vice president.

678
00:35:41,844 --> 00:35:44,364
Speaker 2: But it's it's not the choice that I think would

679
00:35:44,404 --> 00:35:48,564
Speaker 2: maximize the chances of winning the electoral college. And especially

680
00:35:48,644 --> 00:35:53,164
Speaker 2: given that like unlike Biden, Trump is ahead now, he

681
00:35:53,244 --> 00:35:57,684
Speaker 2: should be fairly risk averse. Maybe he thinks he's so

682
00:35:57,724 --> 00:35:59,764
Speaker 2: far ahead that he's gonna win anyway. And therefore here's

683
00:35:59,764 --> 00:36:03,644
Speaker 2: a guy that will like perpetuate trumpiness, ma goodness or

684
00:36:03,644 --> 00:36:06,884
Speaker 2: magodness or however you say it, and be my heir apparent.

685
00:36:08,844 --> 00:36:12,244
Speaker 2: But you know, as the candy who I think has

686
00:36:12,284 --> 00:36:14,364
Speaker 2: run the smarter of the two campaigns so far. This

687
00:36:14,444 --> 00:36:19,124
Speaker 2: is a I think a medium bad decision, a medium

688
00:36:19,164 --> 00:36:19,724
Speaker 2: bad misstep.

689
00:36:19,764 --> 00:36:20,164
Speaker 3: I meant to.

690
00:36:20,164 --> 00:36:26,324
Speaker 1: Say, we'll be back after a quick break.

691
00:36:34,404 --> 00:36:38,124
Speaker 2: So, Maria, the World Series of Poker is is it over?

692
00:36:38,244 --> 00:36:38,524
Speaker 3: Today?

693
00:36:38,524 --> 00:36:40,924
Speaker 1: It's well today, Today is the last day of the

694
00:36:40,964 --> 00:36:43,244
Speaker 1: live events, and then there are two more online.

695
00:36:42,804 --> 00:36:45,444
Speaker 2: Events, okay, which are kind of fake, but let's not

696
00:36:45,444 --> 00:36:47,044
Speaker 2: talk about so we won't.

697
00:36:47,044 --> 00:36:49,364
Speaker 1: We won't talk about the fact that their online events

698
00:36:49,364 --> 00:36:51,364
Speaker 1: are fake, especially if I want to if I went,

699
00:36:51,804 --> 00:36:52,044
Speaker 1: I don't.

700
00:36:52,284 --> 00:36:53,604
Speaker 2: I love the World Series of Poker, but I don't

701
00:36:53,604 --> 00:36:55,284
Speaker 2: mean literally fake. But like I think it's just a

702
00:36:55,324 --> 00:36:56,964
Speaker 2: different species.

703
00:36:56,524 --> 00:36:58,484
Speaker 1: Of PA I totally I totally agree. I totally agree.

704
00:36:58,524 --> 00:37:00,684
Speaker 1: I do not think there should be any online Bracelet events.

705
00:37:00,724 --> 00:37:02,924
Speaker 1: So so we're actually on the same page there. But yeah,

706
00:37:03,004 --> 00:37:06,844
Speaker 1: it's winding down, and man, Nate, I am exhausted, you know,

707
00:37:07,004 --> 00:37:09,404
Speaker 1: I and I took time off. I haven't been here

708
00:37:09,564 --> 00:37:13,444
Speaker 1: the whole time, and I am just tired, tired, tired.

709
00:37:13,524 --> 00:37:16,804
Speaker 1: So today is my last event. It's one thousand dollars

710
00:37:16,804 --> 00:37:19,644
Speaker 1: super Turbo so event.

711
00:37:19,484 --> 00:37:20,284
Speaker 3: Last year or something.

712
00:37:20,364 --> 00:37:24,004
Speaker 2: Right, it's a little it's a little bit depressing that,

713
00:37:24,084 --> 00:37:27,164
Speaker 2: I mean, they're like literally like boarding up the Paris

714
00:37:27,244 --> 00:37:30,284
Speaker 2: and Bally's or horses. Excuse me as you're playing. It's

715
00:37:30,284 --> 00:37:32,804
Speaker 2: a little bit, a little bit depressing. I flew home

716
00:37:33,724 --> 00:37:37,884
Speaker 2: early because I had a jury summons yesterday, which was Tuesday.

717
00:37:38,164 --> 00:37:41,524
Speaker 1: So yeah, Nate, I've been called for jury duty three

718
00:37:41,524 --> 00:37:45,124
Speaker 1: times and I've gotten out of it all three times.

719
00:37:45,684 --> 00:37:48,964
Speaker 1: All three have been in New York. The first time

720
00:37:50,284 --> 00:37:53,764
Speaker 1: I was in grad school and it was an asbestos trial.

721
00:37:53,804 --> 00:37:55,484
Speaker 1: So they're like, this trial is going to be for

722
00:37:55,764 --> 00:37:58,324
Speaker 1: at least like four months or six and I was like,

723
00:37:58,484 --> 00:38:00,484
Speaker 1: I'm a grad student, like and they were like, okay,

724
00:38:00,484 --> 00:38:02,364
Speaker 1: I dismissed right, like that.

725
00:38:01,884 --> 00:38:03,244
Speaker 3: That was That's what happened is I went in.

726
00:38:03,484 --> 00:38:05,884
Speaker 2: You know, I didn't want to like tell because honestly,

727
00:38:05,884 --> 00:38:08,244
Speaker 2: if you're a journalist, then probably you could like go

728
00:38:08,444 --> 00:38:11,084
Speaker 2: and like and say, I'm a journalist, I have all

729
00:38:11,084 --> 00:38:13,444
Speaker 2: these strong political views, right, you probably won't get selected.

730
00:38:13,444 --> 00:38:16,044
Speaker 2: But like, I didn't want to like tell any lies

731
00:38:16,164 --> 00:38:19,124
Speaker 2: or like literally you're sworn in, right, you raise your

732
00:38:19,124 --> 00:38:21,404
Speaker 2: hand and say I will not tell a lie whatever else, right,

733
00:38:21,484 --> 00:38:24,164
Speaker 2: and the and the judge says that, like because if

734
00:38:24,164 --> 00:38:25,404
Speaker 2: it had been this week, I mean we'd have I

735
00:38:25,404 --> 00:38:27,324
Speaker 2: would have worked around it, right, I could have, like I,

736
00:38:27,404 --> 00:38:28,964
Speaker 2: you know, and because a lot of these trials are

737
00:38:29,004 --> 00:38:30,844
Speaker 2: like two or three days, but the judge was like,

738
00:38:31,444 --> 00:38:33,164
Speaker 2: this is going to go for a couple of weeks.

739
00:38:33,644 --> 00:38:36,604
Speaker 2: If you have conflicts, raise your hand. And I raise

740
00:38:36,644 --> 00:38:38,644
Speaker 2: my hand because I have, like, I have hard conflicts.

741
00:38:38,684 --> 00:38:40,564
Speaker 2: I have travel next week, I have this book promotion

742
00:38:40,644 --> 00:38:43,244
Speaker 2: thing that things that like I prescheduled, I can't avoid,

743
00:38:43,284 --> 00:38:48,564
Speaker 2: so therefore I can't really serve. And they're understanding of that.

744
00:38:48,604 --> 00:38:51,404
Speaker 2: But don't don't bluff, right, because they also said because

745
00:38:51,404 --> 00:38:54,684
Speaker 2: the judge also says she's this funny woman, she's like,

746
00:38:55,324 --> 00:38:56,924
Speaker 2: you know, by the way, it's important for you to

747
00:38:57,004 --> 00:39:00,964
Speaker 2: understand that just because somebody was arrested, this is a

748
00:39:00,964 --> 00:39:03,884
Speaker 2: guy who was arrested for some robbery. Right, just because

749
00:39:03,884 --> 00:39:07,364
Speaker 2: the guy was arrested doesn't mean that he's guilty. Sometimes

750
00:39:07,364 --> 00:39:10,084
Speaker 2: people are arrested for the wrong reasons. It's important that

751
00:39:10,124 --> 00:39:13,324
Speaker 2: you understand that as a juror just everyone in the room.

752
00:39:13,324 --> 00:39:14,884
Speaker 2: At this point, we haven't select the jury yet. There

753
00:39:14,964 --> 00:39:18,324
Speaker 2: are probably sixty people, right, you know, raise your hand

754
00:39:18,444 --> 00:39:21,404
Speaker 2: if you don't understand that, right, And as like woman

755
00:39:21,484 --> 00:39:23,724
Speaker 2: raise her hands. She's like, I believe if the cops

756
00:39:23,804 --> 00:39:25,244
Speaker 2: arrest somebody, they must be guilty.

757
00:39:25,324 --> 00:39:26,164
Speaker 3: It's like a.

758
00:39:26,164 --> 00:39:30,604
Speaker 2: Very bad bluff. Uh, And the judge is like, Okay,

759
00:39:30,604 --> 00:39:33,284
Speaker 2: you're not fit for this criminal trial, but we're gonna

760
00:39:33,284 --> 00:39:35,404
Speaker 2: put you back in the rubber room and you'll get

761
00:39:35,444 --> 00:39:38,564
Speaker 2: a civil trial, and the civil trials are longer. Right,

762
00:39:38,644 --> 00:39:41,284
Speaker 2: So like that bluff was like yeah, yeah, so like

763
00:39:41,324 --> 00:39:43,844
Speaker 2: that woman sucked up. Don't like, don't give these bullshit

764
00:39:44,524 --> 00:39:47,844
Speaker 2: unverifiable excuses, right yeah, uh, you know, I don't know

765
00:39:47,844 --> 00:39:49,644
Speaker 2: what ultimately happened to her, but like the rest of

766
00:39:49,724 --> 00:39:53,124
Speaker 2: us who like who had legitimate excuses, were like put

767
00:39:53,164 --> 00:39:55,724
Speaker 2: back in this room and told to go at three thirty.

768
00:39:55,804 --> 00:39:57,564
Speaker 3: Right, that was up to some different room.

769
00:39:57,604 --> 00:39:59,164
Speaker 2: I'm not sure if she'll ever be heard from again,

770
00:39:59,204 --> 00:40:01,364
Speaker 2: but like, don't don't lie to a judge about like,

771
00:40:01,404 --> 00:40:04,684
Speaker 2: oh I believe that like all you know, she's her

772
00:40:04,924 --> 00:40:05,524
Speaker 2: always right.

773
00:40:07,684 --> 00:40:13,044
Speaker 1: Yes, she's the subject of uh Kafka's next novel, written

774
00:40:13,044 --> 00:40:17,444
Speaker 1: from Beyond the Grave. Yes she she she definitely fucked up.

775
00:40:17,724 --> 00:40:20,044
Speaker 1: But no, I think I think Jerry duty is a

776
00:40:20,084 --> 00:40:22,844
Speaker 1: really funny thing because obviously, like we want to serve

777
00:40:22,884 --> 00:40:24,484
Speaker 1: by the way, I never actually got to the in

778
00:40:24,524 --> 00:40:28,244
Speaker 1: front of the judge. I've always been dismissed beforehand before that.

779
00:40:29,484 --> 00:40:32,284
Speaker 1: But it's, uh, it's one of these things where like

780
00:40:32,324 --> 00:40:35,204
Speaker 1: you feel like you need to serve because like you

781
00:40:35,204 --> 00:40:37,764
Speaker 1: want to do your patriotic duty, but like, oh fuck me,

782
00:40:37,884 --> 00:40:39,364
Speaker 1: like I really do not want to serve on.

783
00:40:39,644 --> 00:40:41,524
Speaker 3: I'd be a good juror. I'm telling you that, man,

784
00:40:41,684 --> 00:40:42,124
Speaker 3: I would.

785
00:40:44,084 --> 00:40:47,204
Speaker 1: All right, everyone, did you hear that? Bring Nate back?

786
00:40:47,244 --> 00:40:48,804
Speaker 3: So you know I.

787
00:40:48,724 --> 00:40:53,044
Speaker 2: Got four years now I'm off, I guess, but yeah,

788
00:40:53,044 --> 00:40:56,564
Speaker 2: I know did so? Would you say it was a

789
00:40:56,564 --> 00:40:58,604
Speaker 2: successful World series for you? Because I wouldn't say that

790
00:40:58,604 --> 00:40:59,444
Speaker 2: about my World series?

791
00:40:59,644 --> 00:41:01,724
Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, My my World series was awful.

792
00:41:02,244 --> 00:41:05,164
Speaker 1: I'm down a lot. You know. It's still not the end.

793
00:41:05,204 --> 00:41:07,484
Speaker 1: We have one more, we have one more event and

794
00:41:07,524 --> 00:41:11,444
Speaker 1: then the two fake online events to play. But I'm

795
00:41:11,484 --> 00:41:14,524
Speaker 1: down a lot. I haven't finished my equity calculations mate

796
00:41:14,564 --> 00:41:17,124
Speaker 1: for our bet. Well we'll sum that up for next week.

797
00:41:17,804 --> 00:41:20,524
Speaker 1: But I think that I'm winning our bet. Unfortunately, as

798
00:41:20,724 --> 00:41:23,924
Speaker 1: you and I have discussed, you know, yesterday was a

799
00:41:23,964 --> 00:41:26,484
Speaker 1: pretty great example of that. It's basically how my whole

800
00:41:26,484 --> 00:41:29,684
Speaker 1: summer's been going. You know, get in aces against pocket

801
00:41:29,764 --> 00:41:32,164
Speaker 1: nines and they hit their nine and you're out. You

802
00:41:32,164 --> 00:41:35,804
Speaker 1: know that that's basically you know, that's that's the types

803
00:41:35,844 --> 00:41:39,204
Speaker 1: of equity flips that I've been in. And those aren't flips, right,

804
00:41:39,244 --> 00:41:42,484
Speaker 1: those are the situations where you're huge, your huge favorite,

805
00:41:42,684 --> 00:41:45,924
Speaker 1: you should be winning, and I've been losing almost all

806
00:41:45,964 --> 00:41:48,924
Speaker 1: of them. I've been playing well, so I actually have

807
00:41:49,004 --> 00:41:53,004
Speaker 1: been able to accumulate lots of chips, and my strategy,

808
00:41:53,124 --> 00:41:55,644
Speaker 1: looking at my all in history, basically since it's like

809
00:41:55,724 --> 00:41:58,404
Speaker 1: lost loss loss loss loss loss loss loss, like, my

810
00:41:58,444 --> 00:42:01,484
Speaker 1: strategy should be never to get all in because whenever

811
00:42:01,524 --> 00:42:05,004
Speaker 1: I'm in those situations, I lose, but otherwise otherwise I

812
00:42:05,044 --> 00:42:07,604
Speaker 1: do pretty damn well. So so it's been a fun

813
00:42:07,684 --> 00:42:13,444
Speaker 1: it's been a funny world series, and it's you know,

814
00:42:13,524 --> 00:42:15,924
Speaker 1: it's it's amusing. You have to have perspective when you

815
00:42:15,964 --> 00:42:19,684
Speaker 1: see you're running that poorly. Obviously I wish I warrant,

816
00:42:20,524 --> 00:42:22,484
Speaker 1: but you know, this is the moment where I'm like, damn,

817
00:42:22,524 --> 00:42:24,644
Speaker 1: we shouldn't have bet six hundred and sixty six dollars.

818
00:42:24,684 --> 00:42:27,804
Speaker 1: What about sixty six thousand, you know, something like that

819
00:42:27,844 --> 00:42:29,644
Speaker 1: would have been better to save my summer.

820
00:42:30,724 --> 00:42:32,204
Speaker 2: I'm not sure that you're gonna be me. I have

821
00:42:32,324 --> 00:42:36,284
Speaker 2: I've run pretty bad on all ends too. You know, also,

822
00:42:38,404 --> 00:42:40,924
Speaker 2: uh like this, I mean, when you have when you

823
00:42:41,004 --> 00:42:43,044
Speaker 2: have a lot of distractions, right, I'm not sure my mind.

824
00:42:43,244 --> 00:42:44,364
Speaker 3: The thing I love about.

825
00:42:44,124 --> 00:42:46,524
Speaker 2: The World Series and all experiences hopefully next year, right

826
00:42:46,604 --> 00:42:49,164
Speaker 2: or maybe whenever I play poker next in December at

827
00:42:49,164 --> 00:42:51,644
Speaker 2: the wind probably right, come to me. There's a nice

828
00:42:51,644 --> 00:42:55,244
Speaker 2: feeling about being totally immersed in poker.

829
00:42:55,324 --> 00:42:55,484
Speaker 3: Right.

830
00:42:55,524 --> 00:42:58,604
Speaker 2: All I have to do is wake up, play poker,

831
00:42:58,644 --> 00:43:00,124
Speaker 2: and maybe hang out with my friends a little bit

832
00:43:00,204 --> 00:43:00,564
Speaker 2: or something.

833
00:43:00,644 --> 00:43:01,884
Speaker 3: Right, I'm not doing that.

834
00:43:01,924 --> 00:43:03,764
Speaker 2: I have, like I have to wake up and like

835
00:43:03,804 --> 00:43:05,524
Speaker 2: write a blog post and run the model and do

836
00:43:05,604 --> 00:43:08,604
Speaker 2: five other things and return these emails and then then

837
00:43:08,644 --> 00:43:09,764
Speaker 2: play poker for ten hours.

838
00:43:09,884 --> 00:43:12,324
Speaker 3: It's a challenge. It's tough.

839
00:43:12,764 --> 00:43:14,364
Speaker 1: It's one of the reasons I think that we're both

840
00:43:14,364 --> 00:43:16,884
Speaker 1: I mean that I'm so exhausted is because you know,

841
00:43:16,924 --> 00:43:18,884
Speaker 1: this has not been a World Series where I've been

842
00:43:18,884 --> 00:43:22,964
Speaker 1: able to focus exclusively on poker for obvious reasons, and

843
00:43:23,524 --> 00:43:27,604
Speaker 1: that does matter. But you know, just breathe, breathe deep,

844
00:43:28,444 --> 00:43:32,124
Speaker 1: reboot and try to think well and play well and

845
00:43:32,204 --> 00:43:35,884
Speaker 1: do better next time. Now, today, of course is super turbo,

846
00:43:35,964 --> 00:43:37,644
Speaker 1: so I have to run well in all ends. For

847
00:43:37,684 --> 00:43:40,644
Speaker 1: people who don't play poker, what a super turbo means

848
00:43:40,684 --> 00:43:44,164
Speaker 1: is the levels get very high, very quickly. So that

849
00:43:44,244 --> 00:43:46,604
Speaker 1: means that you do have to get into these all

850
00:43:46,644 --> 00:43:48,844
Speaker 1: in confrontations. You do have to win, you have to

851
00:43:48,844 --> 00:43:54,764
Speaker 1: get lucky. Turbos are basically the highest variance Hyen's highest

852
00:43:55,084 --> 00:43:59,964
Speaker 1: variance variant of poker, right because they move so incredibly quickly,

853
00:44:00,164 --> 00:44:02,644
Speaker 1: So you have to run well. So maybe today my

854
00:44:02,764 --> 00:44:05,844
Speaker 1: luck will completely reverse and today will be the day

855
00:44:05,884 --> 00:44:07,724
Speaker 1: that I end up losing our bit.

856
00:44:08,724 --> 00:44:10,964
Speaker 2: Join us next week where Wheelchairs a Poker Brace. The

857
00:44:11,004 --> 00:44:13,764
Speaker 2: winner Maria Kannakova and I will talk about how she

858
00:44:13,884 --> 00:44:18,244
Speaker 2: navigated her turbo way into poker glory or I'm not sure.

859
00:44:18,004 --> 00:44:20,084
Speaker 1: What poker glory, poker history.

860
00:44:20,084 --> 00:44:25,844
Speaker 3: I love it, poker history.

861
00:44:26,844 --> 00:44:30,124
Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kannakova and me

862
00:44:30,364 --> 00:44:33,404
Speaker 1: Nate Silver. The show is a co production of Pushkin

863
00:44:33,444 --> 00:44:38,004
Speaker 1: Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter.

864
00:44:38,364 --> 00:44:42,244
Speaker 1: Our associate producer is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer

865
00:44:42,324 --> 00:44:43,684
Speaker 1: is Jacob Goldstein.

866
00:44:43,684 --> 00:44:46,044
Speaker 2: And If you want to listen to an ad free version,

867
00:44:46,084 --> 00:44:48,724
Speaker 2: sign up for Pushkin Plus. For six ninety nine a month,

868
00:44:48,964 --> 00:44:52,004
Speaker 2: you get access to ad free listening. Thanks for tuning in.