WEBVTT - Pollster Frank Luntz Talks Midterms

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news.

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<v Speaker 2>And we bring you back to the Republican National Convention

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<v Speaker 2>in Dallas just a couple of weeks ago when the

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<v Speaker 2>president asked voters this question.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm on the ballot. I'm on the ballot.

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<v Speaker 3>If the Republicans win, you win with us and you

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<v Speaker 3>get $ 5, 000, it will be called. The Trump dividend. We'll

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<v Speaker 3>call it the Trump dividend.

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<v Speaker 2>I almost forgot about the $ 5, 000 checks.

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<v Speaker 3>That hasn't been mentioned all week, has it?

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<v Speaker 2>It's a great pleasure always to spend time with Frank Luntz,

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<v Speaker 2>and I'm glad to say he's in town and with

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<v Speaker 2>us at this important moment. Of course, the force behind

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<v Speaker 2>FIL Inc., where he is the CEO and a longtime

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<v Speaker 2>celebrity pollster, can I call you that?

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<v Speaker 3>Frank Luntz, it's good to see you. Welcome back.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm embarrassed. Well, listen. Because we have to get it

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<v Speaker 1>right in the end. And I know how my voice sounds.

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<v Speaker 1>I know how I look. And it's a really important

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<v Speaker 1>time for the country. And I'm glad that you showed

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<v Speaker 1>that clip because I'm not sure if I was the president,

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<v Speaker 1>I would have said I'm on the ballot.

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<v Speaker 3>Will people pretend as he asked them to?

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<v Speaker 1>If they do, it's not going to be good for him.

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<v Speaker 1>His numbers are at the lowest they've been since he

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<v Speaker 1>was elected president. That even some people on the Republican

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<v Speaker 1>side are wondering if this is the direction that they want.

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<v Speaker 1>And I look at the issues, the challenges of affordability,

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<v Speaker 1>of national security, of where we are as a country

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<v Speaker 1>and where we are going. And there's a lot of doubt,

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of division, a lot of anger in America

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<v Speaker 1>right now. And I'm not sure if I want to

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<v Speaker 1>have people focused on me at that moment.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>Wow.

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<v Speaker 2>The last two weeks have been remarkable, and we've been

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<v Speaker 2>trying to illuminate this over the course of the hour.

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<v Speaker 2>It's been reflected in polls. It's been reflected in rhetoric

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<v Speaker 2>and a feeling that something is changing. Have you ever

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<v Speaker 2>seen an acceleration like this in the corrosion, in this case,

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<v Speaker 2>of Republican polling? Do you believe what we're seeing and hearing?

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<v Speaker 1>I see it wherever I go.

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<v Speaker 3>How's it been so fast?

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<v Speaker 1>I hear it because the public at a certain point

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<v Speaker 1>after Labor Day There's something that we talked about on

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<v Speaker 1>your show. That's right, sure we are. That people don't

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<v Speaker 1>take it seriously until Labor Day. And after Labor Day,

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<v Speaker 1>they just start to make a decision, both do they

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<v Speaker 1>want to reward the past and do they want a

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<v Speaker 1>different future? And across America right now, the public is saying,

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<v Speaker 1>can we get out of this affordability crisis? Can we

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<v Speaker 1>afford our food, our fuel, if you're working class? Can

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<v Speaker 1>we afford housing and health care if you're upper middle class?

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<v Speaker 1>And the public is starting to wonder, our national security,

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<v Speaker 1>are we getting any closer to solving the war between

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<v Speaker 1>Russia and Ukraine, to solving the dispute between us and Iran,

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<v Speaker 1>and even our relationship with China? Is it productive? And

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<v Speaker 1>it seems reasonably okay over the last 48 hours. But

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<v Speaker 1>in the end, do I want four more years like this?

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<v Speaker 1>Do I want to pursue the current politics and policy

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<v Speaker 1>Or do I want to change? And what I'm seeing

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<v Speaker 1>in places like Alaska, Iowa, North Carolina, Kansas, these are

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<v Speaker 1>places where Republicans usually do well. And the public in

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<v Speaker 1>those states is saying, I may want to change.

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<v Speaker 2>Are Republicans, as money is moved around, and we're seeing

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<v Speaker 2>super PACs move money around, the triage game can be

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<v Speaker 2>very difficult.

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<v Speaker 3>Are they giving up on a seat like Michael Watley did?

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<v Speaker 2>In North Carolina, will they give up on Ken Paxton

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<v Speaker 2>or is that simply one that cannot be lost?

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<v Speaker 1>Texas is a core of the Republican constituency. But for Republicans,

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<v Speaker 1>they're looking at a place like New Hampshire, which is

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<v Speaker 1>an opportunity for them to bring one on the Democratic

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<v Speaker 1>side over to them. And that's a significant decision. But

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<v Speaker 1>you have to look at Texas and wonder if it's

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<v Speaker 1>really worth investing, not millions, and not tens of millions,

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<v Speaker 1>but potentially 100 million, to try to win that seat over.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's a seat where Donald Trump got in the

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<v Speaker 1>middle of it and said, do not support the incumbent,

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<v Speaker 1>support the Republican challenger. So he's going to be on

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<v Speaker 1>the hot seat for that. And for him, Dallas was

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<v Speaker 1>a success in that his own voters paid attention, and

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<v Speaker 1>he has to ensure that they vote. The challenge is

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<v Speaker 1>how do you get your own voters and those swing

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<v Speaker 1>voters that moved over to the Republicans in 2024 and

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<v Speaker 1>gave them both the House and the Senate.

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<v Speaker 2>If Republicans lose the Senate seat in Texas, knowing that

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump chose not to endorse John Cornyn, knowing that

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump started this war with Iran that sent diesel

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<v Speaker 2>to 650 to an all-time high.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, but he did so for a legitimate purpose, which

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<v Speaker 1>is to ensure— Then Iran does not get nuclear.

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<v Speaker 2>Will voters be nuanced enough to make that call or

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<v Speaker 2>will they say this was Donald Trump's fault?

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<v Speaker 1>That's the best question of all. And we don't know

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<v Speaker 1>the answer to that because we don't know what he's

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<v Speaker 1>going to say. I'll tell you as a language person

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<v Speaker 1>that his communication over the last few weeks could have

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<v Speaker 1>been better, that he could have drawn a better distinction,

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<v Speaker 1>not to be anti-Joe Biden because Joe Biden is gone.

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<v Speaker 1>That's finished. To be focused on the future. What is

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<v Speaker 1>it about his policies that will make food, fuel, housing,

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<v Speaker 1>and health care less expensive? That's what he needs to

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<v Speaker 1>be talking about. And in the end, this is a

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<v Speaker 1>congressional vote, not a presidential vote. That's right. And I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know if he's going to do that.

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<v Speaker 3>Are you giving up on both the House and the Senate?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, it's not for me to give up because I

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<v Speaker 1>gave up on my partisanship a decade ago.

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<v Speaker 3>Understood. Are you giving up on this majority?

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<v Speaker 1>No, but I'd say the majority is definitely in play.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the House is more difficult than the Senate,

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<v Speaker 1>but I can absolutely see a reason for Democrats to

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<v Speaker 1>win both, and that is, in a single word, turnout.

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<v Speaker 1>In the end, the Democrats have a 2% advantage, which

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<v Speaker 1>means more Democrats will vote than Republicans by 2%, and

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<v Speaker 1>there'll be at least two seats, maybe three seats, decided

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<v Speaker 1>by that amount. And this is what should happen. frighten

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<v Speaker 1>Republicans right now that their own base, even with that

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<v Speaker 1>Dallas convention, their own base is not nearly as engaged

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<v Speaker 1>as Democrats, that there are more people who want to

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<v Speaker 1>send a message, a negative message, to Donald Trump than

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<v Speaker 1>want to go out, take the time, vote, and send

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<v Speaker 1>him an affirmation.

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<v Speaker 2>It's remarkable that we're having this conversation now when two

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<v Speaker 2>or three weeks ago it was about Democrats being challenged

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<v Speaker 2>within their own party by Democratic socialists. They might lose Michigan.

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<v Speaker 2>Because Haley Stevens didn't win. Not unlike what we saw

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<v Speaker 2>in Texas at the other extreme.

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<v Speaker 1>That's critical.

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<v Speaker 3>Please.

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<v Speaker 1>Which we see the parties on both sides breaking apart.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's something that can either be a welcome change,

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<v Speaker 1>where you get a new chance to cast new votes

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<v Speaker 1>to affirm what you believe in. The Democratic ideology is

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<v Speaker 1>up for grabs. The Democratic leadership is up for grabs.

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<v Speaker 1>The same thing that happened with the Republicans and the

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<v Speaker 1>MAGA voters. This could be a good thing. But if

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<v Speaker 1>it is used negatively, if it's used to divide and

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<v Speaker 1>to polarize and to tear people down rather than build

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<v Speaker 1>up something new, then that's a problem.

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<v Speaker 2>You are a language expert, as you said a moment ago.

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<v Speaker 2>And I want to ask you about it. I didn't

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<v Speaker 2>plan to ask you this. The Republican president's attempt to

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<v Speaker 2>rebrand artificial intelligence, he wants to call it superintelligence or S.I.,

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<v Speaker 2>I've even seen some of his surrogates stop interviewers and say, no, no, no, no.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it was Seb Gorka said, no, no, no, no,

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<v Speaker 3>there's no AI, it's SI.

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<v Speaker 2>Why would you attempt to rebrand something like this, or

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<v Speaker 2>is it a smart effort?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, the worst situation right now for the business community

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<v Speaker 1>is what's happened to these data centers. No one has

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<v Speaker 1>presented the best argument for why they will result in jobs, opportunities,

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<v Speaker 1>healthcare advances that could never have been conceived of five

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<v Speaker 1>years ago. changes to our economy that would benefit tens

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<v Speaker 1>of millions of people if done properly. The data center

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<v Speaker 1>issue has been determined as being a negative for the

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<v Speaker 1>American economy, for opportunities in states.

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<v Speaker 3>Can that be turned around?

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<v Speaker 1>It has to be. And the challenge for AI, because

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<v Speaker 1>I will call it what people call it, is whether

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to see Everything that could be done for science,

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<v Speaker 1>for health, for the environment, for so many quality of

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<v Speaker 1>life issues on a day-to-day basis, or whether we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to be talking about doomsday.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, right.

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<v Speaker 1>And I'm a pretty negative person. I acknowledge that. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't see anything discussing what AI brings to us in

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<v Speaker 1>a positive way, and most of the conversation is negative.

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<v Speaker 3>So that's its own campaign. Who needs to lead it?

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<v Speaker 1>That's a great question.

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<v Speaker 3>Is it industry?

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<v Speaker 1>Is it government? It has to be both. Okay. And

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<v Speaker 1>it has to be people who are independent from both.

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<v Speaker 1>The thing that I've realized in America today is we

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<v Speaker 1>don't trust experts. People watching us right now don't necessarily

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<v Speaker 1>trust us. We have to prove to them that we

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<v Speaker 1>are independent and that we are focused on their advantages,

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<v Speaker 1>not our own. And that has not happened. The media

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<v Speaker 1>is at its all-time lowest level in credibility. But so

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<v Speaker 1>is Congress. So are the courts. And these institutions, we

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<v Speaker 1>need to believe in them. And this is the reason

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<v Speaker 1>why I'm so blessed to work at West Point. The

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<v Speaker 1>military is the one institution that still has universal support

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<v Speaker 1>across Democrats, Independents, and Republicans. And I'm telling people, and

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<v Speaker 1>I'm proud to say this, there should be a West

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<v Speaker 1>Point standard. As a cadet, you cannot lie, cheat, steal,

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<v Speaker 1>or tolerate those who do. Imagine an elected official actually saying,

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<v Speaker 1>My partisanship doesn't matter. My character does. And I will

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<v Speaker 1>produce and I will adhere to that West Point standard.

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<v Speaker 1>I will not lie. I will not cheat. I will

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<v Speaker 1>not steal. And I will not let members of my

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<v Speaker 1>own party tolerate.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, that's it.

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<v Speaker 2>People will not tolerate those who do. That might be

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<v Speaker 2>the most important line in that statement.

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<v Speaker 1>So how do we convince people at home who watch

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<v Speaker 1>a show like this that they should raise their standards,

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<v Speaker 1>that we should ask, of Democrats and Republicans alike abide

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<v Speaker 1>by that West Point standard.

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<v Speaker 2>I think you've already explained why, but that's why we

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<v Speaker 2>have you come by here as often as we can.

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<v Speaker 1>Frank, it's great to see you.

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<v Speaker 2>Frank Luntz requires no introduction, but it is F-I-L, and

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<v Speaker 2>we'll get him back as soon as we can.