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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Boeing is John Tucker is just reporting.

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Speaker 3: It looks like the leaders of the union and Boeing

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Speaker 3: they have an agreement. I think this is the third

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Speaker 3: agreement they're going to bring to the rank and file,

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Speaker 3: and let's see if the rank and file approves it,

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Speaker 3: because they've turned down the last two.

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Speaker 2: But it's thirty percent for four years and bonuses.

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Speaker 4: I don't know.

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Speaker 3: It sounds pretty good to me. Let's check it out

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Speaker 3: with Thomas Black. He's a Bloomberg opinion Columnisty covers logistics, manufacturing, aerospace. Thomas,

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Speaker 3: it seems like a good deal to me. But what

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Speaker 3: do I know what's going on here with Boeing in

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Speaker 3: their union these days.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it looks like a quite a rich deal.

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Speaker 6: We'll see if the workers want to take it. They

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Speaker 6: they started out with a nominal twenty five percent rays

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Speaker 6: offer and it's now the thirty eight percent.

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Speaker 5: But if you compound that, which is how.

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Speaker 6: You should do it, it's a forty four percent raise

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Speaker 6: over four years.

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Speaker 5: So that's pretty chunky.

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Speaker 7: I mean, when we think about these negotiations back and forth,

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Speaker 7: does this seem to be lengthy? I mean, I'm thinking

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Speaker 7: back to the writer's strike that went on for some time,

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Speaker 7: and you have to really hit a middle place to

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Speaker 7: where everyone's coming to a compromise. How do we think

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Speaker 7: about this with Boeing moving forward and getting production back

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Speaker 7: to what it is looking for.

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Speaker 6: Well, the workers have all the power right now. They

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Speaker 6: really do have quite a bit of leverage, and that's

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Speaker 6: why Boeing has taken so much time trying to settle this.

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Speaker 6: The Boeing is in bad shape financially, they're losing money.

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Speaker 6: They have customers who are climbering for aircraft. They have

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Speaker 6: suppliers who are trying to figure out production schedules so

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Speaker 6: that they can ramp up their production. So Boeing really

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Speaker 6: needs to get its plants started. So the workers know

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Speaker 6: this and that's why they've been holding out. And they've

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Speaker 6: got a deal on the table. Let's see if they

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Speaker 6: take it. If they don't, I think there's a little

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Speaker 6: bit of an anger issue maybe there, Maybe the workers

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Speaker 6: want to lash out at the company because ten years

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Speaker 6: ago they did get a raw deal from the company

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Speaker 6: when it had the upper hand.

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Speaker 5: So the tables have turned.

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Speaker 6: But now we're going to see Monday if they're going

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Speaker 6: to accept this deal and get production cranking up.

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Speaker 3: So, Thomas, when you talk to people kind of within

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Speaker 3: the process on both sides here, what's the feeling. I

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Speaker 3: mean at the end of the day, is that it

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Speaker 3: just a numbers thing.

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Speaker 2: Is it thirty eight percent? No, I want forty two percent?

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Speaker 3: Or is there other issues that are out there that

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Speaker 3: are challenging here, because it's surprising that they haven't that

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Speaker 3: they I guess that it's surprising that the negotiations has

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Speaker 3: been so difficult.

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Speaker 2: What do you think they're looking for?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I think the workers really wanted to reinstate their

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Speaker 6: defined benefit pension plan, which again ten years ago that

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Speaker 6: was taken away from them. As you know, those plans

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Speaker 6: have been declining over the decades. There are very few

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Speaker 6: out there right where you get a certain monthly retirement

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Speaker 6: stipen and that lasts for the rest of your life.

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Speaker 6: It's now all the four to one K savings plan.

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Speaker 6: So they were really trying to bring that back, which

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Speaker 6: would be unprecedented. This deal does not do that. So

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Speaker 6: we'll see if the pay ray was enough. And there's

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Speaker 6: also a twelve thousand dollars signing bonus to sweeten the deals.

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Speaker 6: So we'll just see if the workers are willing to

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Speaker 6: accept this.

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Speaker 7: As you know in your story, there's not one, but

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Speaker 7: two issues. Of course, you have the strike here, but additionally,

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Speaker 7: on the other end, we have to talk about this

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Speaker 7: fragile supply chain environment for the company. When you're talking

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Speaker 7: to sources and just research more broadly, what does it

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Speaker 7: seem as though it will be the next thing to

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Speaker 7: push Boeing forward? I mean this is still a lingering

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Speaker 7: issue for them.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, well, they Boeing has all kinds of problems in

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Speaker 5: its factory floor. They've had quality issues, They've had work

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Speaker 5: coming in at different stages that's got them out of sequence,

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Speaker 5: and that's caused all kinds of problems. They've had supplier

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Speaker 5: quality issues, so that they've got some real problems to tackle.

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Speaker 5: Now this is really just the first step is to

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Speaker 5: get workers back in the factories. Number one issue for

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Speaker 5: Kelly Orkberg, the CEO at Boeing, is to heal the

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Speaker 5: rift with the employers.

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Speaker 6: They have to get them on board and really change

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Speaker 6: the culture on the factory floor so that they're making

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Speaker 6: those quality planes and very efficiently.

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Speaker 5: On the other side, it's the suppliers. The suppliers have

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Speaker 5: been whiplashed quite a bit.

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Speaker 6: It was the pandemic that hurt them, and then we

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Speaker 6: had the Max grounding because of the fatal crashes there,

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Speaker 6: and we had problems with the seven eighty seven aircraft

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Speaker 6: that was grounded for a while, so they've really had

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Speaker 6: they haven't been able to just produce regularly. They've had

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Speaker 6: at all kinds of on and off situations with Boeing,

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Speaker 6: so that healing that supplier base is key as well too.

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Speaker 6: So the good thing about Boeing is that they don't

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Speaker 6: have to worry about the customers.

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Speaker 5: The customers want the planes. The planes are on order,

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Speaker 5: they have a massive backlog.

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Speaker 6: They really just need to get their production up and

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Speaker 6: ramp it up and show the regulators the FAA that

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Speaker 6: they can make quality planes and then they'll be in

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Speaker 6: good shape, all right.

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Speaker 2: Thomas Black, thank you so much for joining us.

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Speaker 3: Thomas Blanky's a Columnstrom Bloomberg opinion covering all the logistics stuff,

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Speaker 3: talking about Boeing.

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Speaker 2: Here.

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Speaker 1: Now you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 3: Let's get back to the economic data of the day.

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Speaker 3: That's the jobs number came in with With the next

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Speaker 3: A lot of folks said they get ready for that.

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Speaker 2: It was to be.

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Speaker 3: Expected with hurricanes and strikes and all that kind of stuff.

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Speaker 3: Let's check in with an expert here, Jenny Biley. She's

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Speaker 3: a division president at Employe Bridge. Jenny, what did you

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Speaker 3: take out of the labor number today?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, this was a tough report. Certainly, I kind of

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Speaker 8: will refer to it a little bit as maybe this

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Speaker 8: was the October surprise that everyone was always waiting for.

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Speaker 8: But we know that many of these job cuts, you

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Speaker 8: know that are happening. A lot of it came from

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Speaker 8: the impacts of the hurricane and the strikes. However, most

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Speaker 8: of the job growth that we've discussed this before on

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Speaker 8: your program, most of the job growth is really coming

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Speaker 8: from the government sector and the healthcare sector. So if

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Speaker 8: you look at this private number, we actually lost jobs.

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Speaker 8: If you back out the government gain of forty thousand,

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Speaker 8: we would have lost jobs. A private sector would have

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Speaker 8: lost twenty eight thousand. So this this is a concerning report.

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Speaker 8: Even with the hurricane and even with the strikes. You know,

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Speaker 8: across the board, many of the sectors are really losing jobs,

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Speaker 8: and especially you know, that manufacturing number had a loss

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Speaker 8: of I believe forty six thousand jobs. And then the

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Speaker 8: sector that I'm in, the temporary help sector, lost almost

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Speaker 8: fifty thousand jobs, and so that is concerning as well.

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Speaker 8: You can see that companies are still very cautious to hire,

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Speaker 8: and they're letting their temporary workers, you know, go first

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Speaker 8: as they try to hold on to their permanent payrolls

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Speaker 8: and permanent employees.

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Speaker 7: I mean, we're just under a week away from the

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Speaker 7: next FED meeting, and of course this is going to

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Speaker 7: be some data that the Federal Reserve will be parsing.

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Speaker 7: How should we be thinking about this in the context

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Speaker 7: of the rate cut environment and what trajectory could look

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Speaker 7: like at this next meeting and beyond, well, you.

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Speaker 8: Know, I think the Fed will really dig into this

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Speaker 8: report because it's not just the October numbers that look

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Speaker 8: so soft, but they also went back and revised the

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Speaker 8: prior two months downward and took another one hundred and

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Speaker 8: twelve thousand jobs out of the job market. So I

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Speaker 8: think the FED will be looking at this report and saying,

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Speaker 8: you know, the job the job market is not as

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Speaker 8: strong as maybe we thought it was, and we are

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Speaker 8: starting to see even though wages are still up, I

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Speaker 8: can tell you wages are starting to soften. They're certainly

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Speaker 8: not keeping up, you know, with inflationary costs. So I

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Speaker 8: do believe that the FED will look at this report

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Speaker 8: and look at these numbers and what's happening with unemployment,

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Speaker 8: the participation rate, where the job growth is coming from,

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Speaker 8: and realized that, you know, this is this is a

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Speaker 8: bit of a challenging job market. And in other reports too,

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Speaker 8: we are seeing, you know, increase in layoffs and many sectors,

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Speaker 8: I know, the challenger in Gray report came out and

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Speaker 8: again showed, you know that layoffs continue to happen. So

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Speaker 8: there are certainly some concerns out there in this in

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Speaker 8: this job market JO just.

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Speaker 3: Thirty seconds left here, the wage inflation or the wage

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Speaker 3: four percent seems pretty solid to me, but you see

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Speaker 3: some a little bit of concern out there.

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Speaker 4: I do.

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Speaker 8: I think employers have you know, been increasing wages really

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Speaker 8: for quite a few years, and at this point, with

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Speaker 8: where the job market is, I think that that's going

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Speaker 8: to just flatten off. That's what we're hearing from employers,

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Speaker 8: you know, large employers, mid size employers, they're really watching

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Speaker 8: their labor costs and they're having to be more conservative.

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Speaker 3: Johnny, thank you so much for joining us. We always

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Speaker 3: appreciate chatting with you on these important jobs days. Joinny Biley.

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Speaker 3: She's a chief workforce analyst at employee Bridge, joining us

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Speaker 3: via zoom here again, the nonfarm payroll came in at

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Speaker 3: twelve thousand. The consensus essmenate was for one hundred thousand.

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Speaker 3: Last month was two hundred and fifty four thousand. A

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Speaker 3: lot of economs to say, you know, there's hurricane effects,

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Speaker 3: there's layoff effects, so got to take that into account.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on AFO, card playing and

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Speaker 3: Let's stay on the labor front here and get a

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Speaker 3: sense of kind of where we are in terms of DEI.

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Speaker 7: Diversity, equity and inclusion.

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Speaker 2: Equity and inclusion.

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Speaker 3: Thank you very much. It seems I'm not sure it's

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Speaker 3: waxing or waning, and some companies are backing away from it.

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Speaker 3: Someone companies continue to lean into it. Alan Schwyer joins us.

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Speaker 3: He is a principal researcher of human capital at the

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Speaker 3: Conference Board.

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Speaker 2: Alan, thanks so much for joining us here.

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Speaker 3: As we think about DEI, we've seen some fairly high profile,

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Speaker 3: publicly traded companies kind of back away a little bit

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Speaker 3: from that. Can you give us a sense kind of

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Speaker 3: where we are on diversity, equity and inclusion in corporate America?

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Speaker 9: Yeah, sure, you know, I think there are a lot

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Speaker 9: of reports of organizations moving away from DEI or backing off,

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Speaker 9: if not canceling DEI, but they're they're very much the minority.

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Speaker 9: Our research over the past year and those that of

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Speaker 9: others really shows that about eighty to ninety percent of

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Speaker 9: organizations are holding the course or expanding their DEI programs.

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Speaker 9: So we think it's maybe gets a little more attention

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Speaker 9: when when someone you know quits their d I programs,

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Speaker 9: but the great majority are holding firm.

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Speaker 7: I mean, what have been the effects? I mean, of course,

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Speaker 7: we know last year the Supreme Court did reverse affirmative action.

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Speaker 7: The ruling there has that had an impact at all

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Speaker 7: when we think about hiring in the corporate America space.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, it has. You know, technically the Supreme Court ruling

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Speaker 9: because this IDOL six does not have an impact on

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Speaker 9: the workforce, but we know that it has a chilling

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Speaker 9: effect on DEI programs. In fact, our most recent research

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Speaker 9: shows that more than two thirds of executives say that

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Speaker 9: it is putting a negative having a negative effect on

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Speaker 9: their DEI programs. So yeah, I mean, the Supreme Court

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Speaker 9: decision has certainly made an impact.

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Speaker 3: What are you seeing from workers themselves? What are workers

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Speaker 3: looking for? Are they embracing DEI? Is this something they

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Speaker 3: feel has value within their workplace?

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 9: We just surveyed the US workforce. We had a big sample,

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Speaker 9: almost fourteen hundred workers, managers and up to the director level,

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Speaker 9: and workers are saying they want DEI. In fact, the

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Speaker 9: majorities say they would not work or would only reluctantly

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Speaker 9: work in an organization that does not take DEI seriously.

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Speaker 9: So that's a powerful signal, and it differs between groups

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Speaker 9: at work, but over all, the majority of workers do

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Speaker 9: want to see DEI initiatives and want to work in

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Speaker 9: diverse organizations, according to our research.

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Speaker 7: So from an investor perspective, of course, people are really

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Speaker 7: thinking about returns. Have there has there been any data

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Speaker 7: to show that this actually impacts returns from companies.

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Speaker 9: No, it's a good question, and it's very hard to

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Speaker 9: link DEI programs directly to financial incomes, but we know

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Speaker 9: that it does drive engagement. In fact, our survey respondents

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Speaker 9: tell us that it improves engagement, improves belonging, improves inclusion,

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Speaker 9: and improves retention. And if it does those things, then

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Speaker 9: you know, naturally there's a there's a link, but it's

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Speaker 9: not a direct link to financial performance.

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Speaker 3: So Dan, what's the Are there certain industries within corporate

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Speaker 3: America that are more on board with DEI versus maybe

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Speaker 3: some others.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, in this research, we found that the services sector

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Speaker 9: is you know, the responses from employees in the services

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Speaker 9: sector are certainly stronger than in the core manufacturing type

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Speaker 9: industries and not unexpected. But again, overall, the workers want

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Speaker 9: to see more D. But you're right in certain industries

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Speaker 9: there is a stronger preference for more DEI programs than

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Speaker 9: in others.

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Speaker 7: Can you also speak to particular age demographics. Is there

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Speaker 7: any difference in terms of which generations are embracing the push?

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Speaker 9: Yeah, and this is really important, I think too, because

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Speaker 9: I don't think anyone will be really surprised to hear

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Speaker 9: that the younger generations, millennials and Gen Z are more

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Speaker 9: in favor, more demand, more DEI expect more than older generations.

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Speaker 9: And we know that those generations will form sixty percent

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Speaker 9: or more of the workforce by twenty thirty. You know,

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Speaker 9: I may the same is true for women and minorities.

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Speaker 9: Women and minorities are already the majority of the workforce

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Speaker 9: and have much greater expectation in demand for D in

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Speaker 9: the workforce. So we think, you know, demographics are destiny.

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Speaker 9: This is happening very quickly. In an organization that really

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Speaker 9: actively resists this will probably struggle to survive, I mean,

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Speaker 9: from finding talent and even finding customers.

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Speaker 7: With about thirty seconds, I am looking at this story

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Speaker 7: that says Boeing dismantles DEI team as pressure builds on

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Speaker 7: the new CEO. Have you seen a shift of corporate

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Speaker 7: different companies actually push moving away from DEI and not

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Speaker 7: really seeing it as a priority.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 9: I think more are moving away from the terms. They

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Speaker 9: can be a lightning rod, and they're focusing on the

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Speaker 9: work more than the words.

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Speaker 10: For sure.

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Speaker 9: Some are backing away, you know, more comprehensively. Most are

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Speaker 9: changing how they describe it, continuing with the work.

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Speaker 3: All right, We'll see how it plays out. Certainly a

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Speaker 3: big part of the culture here at Bloomberg. Alan Schwier,

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Speaker 3: Principal researcher of Human Capital at the Conference Board, joining

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Speaker 3: us from Charleston, South Carolina.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecard Play and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live

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Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

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Speaker 1: Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: David Weady joins us. He's one of the reporters on

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Speaker 3: that story. He's an energy reporter for Bloomberg News. This

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Speaker 3: is our big take story, and we love the big

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Speaker 3: take stories on Bloomberg. Here, David, how is the oil

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Speaker 3: and gas industry becoming more productive at in the field.

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Speaker 11: Yeah, this was something that really surprised us in the

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Speaker 11: oil industry for how far it spanned beyond just the

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Speaker 11: industry itself into other parts of the ECONO. They're doing

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Speaker 11: it just through little ways.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 11: Your first guess, you might think, oh, it's artificial intelligence

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Speaker 11: of what doing it, But really it's not even that

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Speaker 11: we've barely scratched the surface on using AI. It's just

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Speaker 11: a bunch of little things where on their own wouldn't

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Speaker 11: move the needle, but you add them all up and

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Speaker 11: it's making a big difference. It's little things like you know,

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Speaker 11: incentives to the workers to drill faster, you know, catered

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Speaker 11: barbecue lunches out of the rigsite, remodeling their living quarters.

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Speaker 11: It's drilling in a unique pattern in a U shape

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Speaker 11: where you couldn't figure out a way to get all

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Speaker 11: the rest of the oil out of the ground and

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Speaker 11: you have a small footprint. So instead what you do

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Speaker 11: is you drill down sideways and then you turn and

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Speaker 11: go one hundred degrees the other direction to capture the

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Speaker 11: rest of that oil. That was a concept that could

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Speaker 11: never even be thought about earlier in the years as

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Speaker 11: we just sort of kept playing around with ways to

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Speaker 11: drill underground. We figured out a way to do that

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Speaker 11: and to do it correctly. You know, it's also to

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Speaker 11: figure out how to frack two wells at one time,

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Speaker 11: and that not only reduces the friction in one well,

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Speaker 11: it saves on the manpower because you use one crew

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Speaker 11: to now complete two wills at the same time. So

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Speaker 11: it's all these little just sort of small efficiency gains

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Speaker 11: where it's allowed us to get a lot faster at

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Speaker 11: producing at less manpower. And what it really boils down

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Speaker 11: to is you've got about a third of the rigs

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Speaker 11: is which you've had ten years ago, and yet you've

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Speaker 11: got record production. So a dramatic decrease in the amount

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Speaker 11: of equipment and then the people to run them while

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Speaker 11: maintaining enormous amounts of output. And that's a lot of

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Speaker 11: the energy is free to surpass all of their sectors

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Speaker 11: in the economy.

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Speaker 7: So when we're thinking about productivity, of course, one thing

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Speaker 7: that you need to be thinking about is, you know,

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Speaker 7: governmental legislation that will support this. And I see here

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Speaker 7: in the piece you all speak a bit about you know,

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Speaker 7: this upcoming election. You say that Kamala Harris has repeatedly

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Speaker 7: said that she won't be fracking, which is a walk

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Speaker 7: back of comments that she made in twenty nineteen. How

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Speaker 7: much does the government and different policies play a role

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Speaker 7: in the ability for these companies to excel.

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Speaker 11: It's a good question because sometimes it can be misunderstood.

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Speaker 11: Chevron actually talked about it a little bit earlier, and

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Speaker 11: they're doing earnings this morning, and on some of the

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Speaker 11: different interviews, Mike Worth talked about how ultimately the US

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Speaker 11: shale is there and it's not really being restricted by

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Speaker 11: the US government. You know, people talk about whether you

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Speaker 11: can go on federal lands or not. Really where they're

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Speaker 11: doing a lot of the drilling is on private, independent

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Speaker 11: land that the US government does not own, So really

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Speaker 11: that's not very restrictive to these drillers. Where it kind

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Speaker 11: of comes down to more is permitting for things like pipelines.

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Speaker 11: So you drill, you produce, but you got to send

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Speaker 11: it off to market, you got to send it down

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Speaker 11: to the refineries, and so getting timely approvals for the

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Speaker 11: permits to build new pipelines to send more oil and

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Speaker 11: natural gas away from the oil fields is key. So

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Speaker 11: that's kind of one sticking point for policy on any

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Speaker 11: type of administration. Is where the oil industry is going

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Speaker 11: to care.

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Speaker 3: David, you're down there in Houston. That's you know, obviously

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Speaker 3: that the center the US energy business. What's the feeling

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Speaker 3: just a broadly define about the business of energy, because

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Speaker 3: you know, as recently as ten years ago, fifteen years ago,

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Speaker 3: they were talking about peak oil and all that kind

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Speaker 3: of stuff. I don't hear about that as much anymore.

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Speaker 11: Yeah, you don't really hear about it. I think partly

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Speaker 11: because there was this kind of you know, ESU movement

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Speaker 11: and you know, green energy technologies and let's try to

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Speaker 11: do both at the same time. And maybe kind of

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Speaker 11: you saw investors pivot away from investing in oil and gas,

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Speaker 11: and what it kind of led to was a decrease

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Speaker 11: in spending in oil and gas, and so you've had

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Speaker 11: less push to really grow supplies. So it's kind of

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Speaker 11: tightened the picture a little bit, and so there's sort

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Speaker 11: of less concern of maybe this thing is going away

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Speaker 11: and more about let's make sure we have enough supply

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Speaker 11: out there so the prices don't go crazy above one

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Speaker 11: hundred dollars a barrel and really sort of raise red

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Speaker 11: flags on the industry. So I think they're trying to

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Speaker 11: kind of fly below the radar and not too much

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Speaker 11: attention on energy prices that are too high, while still

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Speaker 11: trying to maximize profit and have high enough oil prices

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Speaker 11: that eclipse their sort of break even price and give

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Speaker 11: them a decent amount of profit. So I mean that

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Speaker 11: the mood around here is, you know, I think if

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Speaker 11: you're in the oil industry, you sort of feel like

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Speaker 11: you're not appreciated enough that the politicians don't you know,

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Speaker 11: appreciate you. But otherwise outside of the industry, it sort

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Speaker 11: of is a view of you know, it looks like

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Speaker 11: it's pretty healthy and still productive and profitable and growing.

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Speaker 7: I mean, as we think about just digging a bit

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Speaker 7: deeper into the ESG movement and where we are today,

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Speaker 7: as we think about ESG and just investor sentiments surrounding

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Speaker 7: this sector, have you seen it all pullback in backlash

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Speaker 7: in the space.

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Speaker 11: Yes, I think the backlash is diminished. I mean, there's

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Speaker 11: still going to be the environmental groups out there that

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Speaker 11: are raising concerns and you know, and we're hearing from them.

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Speaker 11: But I think that the broader you know, just push

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Speaker 11: to really kind of drive down this industry. I think

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Speaker 11: you're just seeing a lot less. It's sort of just

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Speaker 11: abated a little bit. And because I think the view

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Speaker 11: is we still need supplies for a while of oil

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Speaker 11: and natural gas, and you know, we can't have electricity

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Speaker 11: shortages even here in Texas of all places. So yeah,

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Speaker 11: it seems like it's kind of dialed back.

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Speaker 3: You've got your own grid. That's how you guys do

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Speaker 3: things down in Texas.

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Speaker 2: We understand that.

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Speaker 3: David Weady, he's an energy reporter for Bloomberg News and

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Speaker 3: he is based fittingly in Houston, Texas. Again, the story,

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Speaker 3: the Big Takes story, is about the productivity in the

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Speaker 3: oil business, the energy business, and thank John Tucker for

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Speaker 3: flagging that for us. That's our Big Take story today

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Speaker 3: on the Bloomberg triml where you can find at the

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Turminal and on Bloomberg dot com slash Big Take.

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Speaker 2: Check it out there.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and with

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on

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Speaker 1: playing Bloomberg eleven thirty, getting.

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Speaker 3: Back to the marketsas John Tucker was just reporting strong

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Speaker 3: day in the equity markets. Here, let's break it down

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Speaker 3: a little bit with Sarah Ponzik. She's the first vice

442
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:20,160
Speaker 3: president of wealth management at UBS Private Wealth Management.

443
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:21,879
Speaker 2: Coming to us Life from.

444
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:25,359
Speaker 3: Del Boca Vista in the Boca Raton, Florida area. Sarah,

445
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 3: thanks so much for joining us. A lot of earnings

446
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 3: this week, a lot of economic data this week. What

447
00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 3: are you telling your clients these days as they finish

448
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:34,120
Speaker 3: up the year and think about next year.

449
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's been a bit of a marathon between this

450
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 4: week and next week. Think about the amount of earnings

451
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 4: that we've received, not just from any companies, but the

452
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:45,400
Speaker 4: largest companies in the stock market and in our economy.

453
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 4: Also some economic data. Of course, Jobs Day was today.

454
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,879
Speaker 4: I know, I'm sure you've discussed it at length already.

455
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 4: Then we've got an election next week and the Federal Reserve,

456
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 4: so you know, we're going to just jam it in

457
00:23:57,760 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 4: to two weeks.

458
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:01,159
Speaker 10: But at the end of the day, we're talking to clients,

459
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:05,399
Speaker 10: you know, the picture really hasn't changed.

460
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 4: Yes, there's a lot of data, and to be sure,

461
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 4: the data's even messy as you know, you know, the

462
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:15,360
Speaker 4: job zdata that we receive today is burdened by storms

463
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:17,919
Speaker 4: and strikes, and the data itself is messy.

464
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 10: So when we look at the overall outlook going out from.

465
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 4: Here, nothing that we've seen over the past week, and

466
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:27,479
Speaker 4: really nothing that we expect even next week changes the outlook,

467
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:29,400
Speaker 4: which is still optimistic and positive from here.

468
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 7: So earning season, we just got some mixed reports from

469
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:34,920
Speaker 7: these big tech names. I see that you're also keeping

470
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 7: an eye on the tech selloff. Talk to me about

471
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:40,160
Speaker 7: what's going on there, especially given the fact that people

472
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 7: are really depending on this sector for the markets gains.

473
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:47,480
Speaker 4: Right, we call it a tech selloff, But nowadays tech

474
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,480
Speaker 4: sell offs are really just blips. You know, A couple

475
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 4: of percentage points is hardly anything when you look at

476
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 4: the run that we've seen in tech stocks this year

477
00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 4: and last year, coming off the volatility of twent two

478
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 4: and look, you're absolutely right. At the end of the day,

479
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 4: these companies are so so important, largely because they make

480
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,159
Speaker 4: up such a heavy weight of the indexes. So if

481
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:15,119
Speaker 4: you're an investor and you're either comparing yourself to an

482
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:16,879
Speaker 4: index like the S and P five hundred or the

483
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:20,159
Speaker 4: NASAC or you're invested in an index like the SMP

484
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:23,800
Speaker 4: five hundred, Well, these large tech companies are the ones

485
00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 4: that are really leading the way. And at the end

486
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 4: of the day, yes, we saw some volatility post earnings. Yes,

487
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:34,159
Speaker 4: these companies are spending so much money on capex or

488
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 4: capital expenditures when it comes to AI, but at the

489
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:39,640
Speaker 4: end of the day, we do believe that this spending

490
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 4: is going to pay off. These large megacap companies are

491
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:48,240
Speaker 4: at the forefront of this AI boom that we're going

492
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:50,160
Speaker 4: to see in the years to come.

493
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:53,919
Speaker 10: And it's really amazing when you look at the big

494
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:55,919
Speaker 10: four tech companies, and I'll just lay them out.

495
00:25:55,960 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 4: You know, Microsoft Alphabet parent or Google parent, Alphabet AMZ

496
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:05,440
Speaker 4: on Meta. Those four companies alone account for almost half

497
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 4: of spending on artificial intelligence.

498
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 10: We've seen it laid out in their earnings.

499
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 4: But at the end of the day, they're spending on

500
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:13,200
Speaker 4: what they believe is the future and what we too

501
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 4: believe is going to be a trend that's not only

502
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,119
Speaker 4: a trend, but is going to turn into revenue and

503
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:19,400
Speaker 4: earnings in the future as well.

504
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:21,359
Speaker 3: Sir, what kind of phone calls are getting from your

505
00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:25,600
Speaker 3: clients about this election. Are investors trying to position around it?

506
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 3: Are they trying to just trade through it? Ignore it?

507
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 9: It?

508
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:29,920
Speaker 2: Kind of what kind of discussions are you having?

509
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 4: So people got a bit emotional, and you know, for

510
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 4: good reason before and around an election. Not just recently,

511
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 4: but I would tell you that over the past couple

512
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 4: of months, I think it's a little telling. I've gotten

513
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,439
Speaker 4: calls from clients on both sides of the spectrum, so

514
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 4: Democrats and Republicans saying, Okay, if X person wins the

515
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:51,200
Speaker 4: election and I want to leave the country, what does

516
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:52,679
Speaker 4: that mean for my portfolio?

517
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 10: And can we still work together?

518
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 4: So emotions, emotions run high, you know, surrounding political elections.

519
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 4: But at the end of the day, you know, politics

520
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:05,280
Speaker 4: really don't have as big an effect on markets as

521
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 4: some people tend to believe they do. If you look

522
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 4: at any which scenario over history, a blue sweep, a

523
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:16,439
Speaker 4: red sweep, ridlock you know, ex party in office with

524
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 4: the other, you know, controlling Congress and the Senate, there's

525
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:24,560
Speaker 4: really no statistically significant outcome. When you try to compare

526
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:29,119
Speaker 4: different you know, representations of DC and the government to

527
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 4: stock market returns.

528
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 10: It really doesn't matter all that much.

529
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 4: Really, what matters is the federal reserve and interest rates

530
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 4: and the economy, which frankly, the president doesn't have as

531
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 4: much control as many people like to believe it to.

532
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,160
Speaker 4: We actually had an event this this.

533
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:50,360
Speaker 12: Week where you know, the question was posed to the attendees,

534
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:54,439
Speaker 12: who do you think had you know, the worst market

535
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:56,679
Speaker 12: returns during their presidency and who had the best.

536
00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 4: I don't know if you want to take a crack

537
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 4: at it, but most people didn't know the answer.

538
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:06,160
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean I think just goes God. As you're

539
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 7: thinking about this election and pushing forward. I mean, you're

540
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:12,119
Speaker 7: in private wealth management. This is a very important space.

541
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:14,640
Speaker 7: What is your island right now? If you all are

542
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:17,159
Speaker 7: kind of not focusing as much on the election to

543
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 7: determine returns.

544
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 4: So so love when it comes to planning surrounding policy. Yes,

545
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:26,640
Speaker 4: in the private wealth space, when you're working with high

546
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 4: net worth individuals, family offices, there are potential policy changes

547
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 4: that could pose.

548
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 10: You know, significant change for clients.

549
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 4: So when it comes to the estate tax, for example,

550
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 4: right now, the way the law is right and is

551
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 4: at the end of next year, the current law is

552
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 4: going to sunset, and the estate tax the exemption amount

553
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 4: is going to be half.

554
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 10: Going to be cut in half.

555
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 4: So yes, we're seeing We're doing a lot of planning

556
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 4: surrounding that, working with our.

557
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:55,880
Speaker 10: Clients and state attorneys to make sure that they're prepared.

558
00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 4: But at the end of the day, what we're really

559
00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 4: focused on is technolology, which we discussed, you know, doing

560
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:05,960
Speaker 4: tax planning a head ahead of your end and then

561
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 4: just when it comes to markets, looking at the economic.

562
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 10: Data, looking at the trend for interest rates.

563
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 4: Look, we're going to get a Federal Reserve meeting next week,

564
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 4: but our economists expect that we'll see another fifty basis

565
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 4: points of cuts by the end of the year, another

566
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:21,000
Speaker 4: one hundred based points of cuts next year. So if

567
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 4: we know cash rates are coming down, interest rates are

568
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 4: coming down, making sure that you know our clients aren't

569
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 4: sitting in cash or just short dated treasury bonds for example,

570
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 4: because at the end of the day, reinvestment risk is

571
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 4: an issue right now.

572
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:37,040
Speaker 2: Sarah, thank you so much for joining us. Always appreciate

573
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 2: chatting with you.

574
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 3: Sarah Ponsek, she's the first vice president of wealth management

575
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 3: at UBS Private Wealth Management. She's located in Bolca Raton, Florida.

576
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

577
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

578
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live

579
00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship York station just Say

580
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:03,240
Speaker 1: Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven.

581
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 3: It's good to Washington because we've got an election next

582
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 3: week and there aren't many people in Washington I want

583
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 3: to talk to.

584
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 2: One of them is Nathan Dean. He knows what's going on.

585
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 3: Then we always get the straight poop from Nathan. Nathan's

586
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Intelligence senior policy analyst. So Nathan, you're down there,

587
00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 3: You're hip deep and all that Washington stuff and all

588
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 3: the you know, the Innundia and all the talk and

589
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 3: all the back talk, back office talk and all the

590
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 3: type of thing. What's the feeling in DC about how

591
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 3: this thing may break on Tuesday?

592
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 13: Yeah, So, you know, I don't think anybody really has

593
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 13: any good prediction of how things are going to break

594
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 13: outside of the Senate race. And the reason why we're

595
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 13: saying the Senate races is because you know, this is

596
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,479
Speaker 13: a very difficult race for the Democrats that are defending

597
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 13: twenty three of the thirty four seats that are open

598
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:46,720
Speaker 13: at the moment, and a lot of those are in

599
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 13: purple states or in Trump's states. So if you're a

600
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 13: Senator Shery Brown, who's the Senate Banking chairman, or Senator

601
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 13: John Tester in Ohio and then Montana, those are races

602
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:57,480
Speaker 13: that the Democrats have to win if they want to

603
00:30:57,520 --> 00:31:00,360
Speaker 13: keep the Senate. Now why do we care about the Senate? Well,

604
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 13: the Senate obviously gets you confirmation of judges, but also

605
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 13: regulatory leaders So if the Republicans take the Senate and

606
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 13: Kamala Harris wins, they can effectively block and jam a

607
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 13: lot of the new regulatory leadership that she wants to

608
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 13: put in place. So this could mean that Lena Khan

609
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:16,680
Speaker 13: at the Federal Training Commissioner, Gary Ginzler at the SEC

610
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 13: sticks around for a little bit longer. If President Trump wins,

611
00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 13: then a deregulatory effort can move much quicker. So outside

612
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 13: of the Senate race, everything else is too close to tell.

613
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 7: What's the latest on swing states?

614
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 13: So obviously I think you know what we're telling everybody

615
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:32,880
Speaker 13: is that it comes down to Pennsylvania. I mean, if

616
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 13: Kamala Harris doesn't win Pennsylvania, the odds of her winning

617
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 13: the presidency is very slim. So you know, we've been

618
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 13: working with some European clients, for example, and as they

619
00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 13: come into the office, say eight or nine am, you know,

620
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 13: central European time, look for the results in Philadelphia and

621
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:48,719
Speaker 13: Pittsburgh to really try and give you an indication of

622
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 13: who's going to be winning this election. But I will

623
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 13: say is that, you know, the general thought here is

624
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 13: is that you know, there's this idea that the election

625
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 13: could go you know, for weeks. We just don't know.

626
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:01,080
Speaker 13: But I also think there's a lot of folks out

627
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 13: there that are thinking that this at least we could

628
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 13: get an indication of who the president is, maybe not

629
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 13: officially and maybe not called by the agencies and so

630
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:11,360
Speaker 13: forth the news organizations, but we could at least get

631
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 13: an indication of who the president is going to be

632
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 13: on Wednesday and Thursday. So you know, from a market perspective,

633
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 13: we're going to be looking to see for when those

634
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 13: state results start coming in. And obviously it's the one

635
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 13: hundred thousand folks in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada

636
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 13: and Michigan and so forth that are ultimately going to

637
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 13: decide who.

638
00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 2: The president is.

639
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 7: Speaking of election calls, what is the expectation for how

640
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,960
Speaker 7: long it could potentially take this election to be called?

641
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 13: Well, look it really, you know, this is the challenge

642
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 13: of the American voter system is that each state has

643
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 13: their own processes and procedures. I mean, certain states can't

644
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 13: start counting your early ballots until the polls close, for example,

645
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 13: and so we just don't know how long it's going

646
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 13: to take. However, what we can say is is that,

647
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 13: you know, we should get an indication of how things

648
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:57,400
Speaker 13: are going. And when you look at the swing states

649
00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 13: in particular, you know you have a good mix of

650
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:02,520
Speaker 13: those that are on the East coast and those are

651
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 13: on the west coast Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada

652
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 13: and so forth like that. Put just going back to

653
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 13: what I said earlier, for Vice President Kamala Harris, it

654
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:13,480
Speaker 13: comes down to Pennsylvania. If she can't win Pennsylvania, then

655
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:15,960
Speaker 13: chances are of Michigan and Wisconsin are in play and

656
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 13: she loses the presidency. So again we would just we're

657
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 13: really paying attention to Philadelphia and Pittsburgh these days.

658
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:25,560
Speaker 3: Nathan, I say this affectionately a policy geek, a wonk

659
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 3: You've got some great research out there that says, hey,

660
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 3: here's what happens to a couple of key industries from

661
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:34,760
Speaker 3: a regulatory perspective, if Harris wins or Trump wins, what

662
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 3: are the two one, or two or three things that

663
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 3: you're really looking at or could be in play depending

664
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 3: upon who gets in office.

665
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, So if you're.

666
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 13: Trying to think of like catalyst industries, meaning that the

667
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 13: election means one substantial catalyst or the other, the investment

668
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 13: banks are the perfect thing to come into mind because

669
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 13: there's this rule out there called the Bosle three end game. Now,

670
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 13: if Kamala Harris wins, banks are going to look around

671
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:57,440
Speaker 13: a nine percent capital increase starting in probably twenty twenty six.

672
00:33:57,680 --> 00:34:00,800
Speaker 13: If President Trump wins, that rule, I think effect goes away.

673
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 13: Renewables is certain. Is another thing because Eric, you know,

674
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 13: in the prior segment mentioned that taxes could go up

675
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:09,640
Speaker 13: next year. The Trump Air tax cuts expire for individuals

676
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:11,880
Speaker 13: at the end of twenty twenty five, and Congress and

677
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:13,239
Speaker 13: the President is going to have to figure out how

678
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:15,959
Speaker 13: to pay over four trillion dollars to keep those tax

679
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 13: cuts going. And so is the Inflation Reduction Act at play.

680
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:21,880
Speaker 13: That's very important to the renewable industry, so something to

681
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,719
Speaker 13: keep in mind. And finally, big tech. You know, there's

682
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:28,400
Speaker 13: this stereotypical idea out there that Republicans equal good for

683
00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:31,279
Speaker 13: big business, and so if President Trump wins, you know,

684
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 13: big tech in particular could be it could be a

685
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 13: positive in terms of ease of regulation and enforcement. But

686
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:39,680
Speaker 13: there's this idea of economic populism going through the Republican

687
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:41,919
Speaker 13: Party right now and a lot of scrutiny on big

688
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 13: tech that could also be in play. So if you're

689
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:45,719
Speaker 13: in the big tech space, you know, and the Federal

690
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 13: Trade Commission in the DOJ is investigating you, there could

691
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:51,359
Speaker 13: be some pretty tough investigations coming, no matter whom mens

692
00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 13: the presidency.

693
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:54,400
Speaker 7: Hey, Nathan, I know we're on our first day of November,

694
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:57,279
Speaker 7: but there's always talk about the October surprise. Is that

695
00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:58,240
Speaker 7: something that we saw.

696
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:00,239
Speaker 2: I don't think so.

697
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:02,279
Speaker 13: I mean, you know, one thing that we've been leaning

698
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 13: on is that there's not many people out there who

699
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:07,200
Speaker 13: are undecided. If you looked at the charts, these charts

700
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:09,440
Speaker 13: are on the terminal, you know, you're looking at somewhere

701
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:12,320
Speaker 13: between point five and one percent of the undecided popular

702
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:15,400
Speaker 13: or the independent population out there, they're still undecided. And

703
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:17,600
Speaker 13: so this race, in our opinion, has always been about,

704
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:20,360
Speaker 13: you know, Vice President kam Haaris versus President Trump versus

705
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:22,400
Speaker 13: the couch. And if people get off the couch and

706
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:24,719
Speaker 13: they vote, then Vice President most likely wins. If people

707
00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:27,360
Speaker 13: stay on the couch and they don't vote, then President

708
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 13: Trump could win. So it's more more about a turnout

709
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:31,440
Speaker 13: rather than an October surprise.

710
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:32,400
Speaker 2: And I really don't.

711
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 13: Think we've seen anything that a really changed voters' minds

712
00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 13: in October. But for the question is was there an

713
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:40,240
Speaker 13: October surprise that we keep people from voting?

714
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 2: We just still don't know yet.

715
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 3: All Right, Nathan, thank you so much for joining us.

716
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 3: As always, Nathan Deane, he's the senior policy annost for

717
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Intelligence. He's down in Washington, DC. You can see

718
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:51,359
Speaker 3: his research just go to b I go and he's

719
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:53,279
Speaker 3: got a lot of great research out there about the

720
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:57,560
Speaker 3: different scenarios under each type of election scenario, Harris versus

721
00:35:57,560 --> 00:35:59,440
Speaker 3: Trump versus split Congress.

722
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:01,480
Speaker 2: And he's got got a lot of great researchers.

723
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 3: About which industries might be impact us to take a

724
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:05,919
Speaker 3: look at that. All right, folks, speaking of the election,

725
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:09,759
Speaker 3: join US for complete coverage of US election results Tuesday night.

726
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:11,920
Speaker 3: It kicks off a five pm Eastern with a special

727
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:15,720
Speaker 3: two hour edition of Balance of Power, followed by Coast

728
00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 3: to Coast Team Bloomberg Team coverage at seven pm. Get

729
00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:23,600
Speaker 3: live election results and analysis with context Tuesday night on

730
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:27,400
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Radio, Television and the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel.

731
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:28,560
Speaker 2: So we got you covered there.

732
00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:33,480
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733
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:36,600
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734
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:40,280
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735
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:43,800
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736
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:47,040
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