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Speaker 2: We're running on fumes today that goes for the entire
Speaker 2: political class on early flights out of New Hampshire, some
Speaker 2: late flights out of Boston because they don't hang around
Speaker 2: after a contest like that, not for very long.
Speaker 3: Of course, the Nicki Haley campaign.
Speaker 2: Has big work to do, and while Donald Trump never
Speaker 2: stays overnight there to begin with. Still in Manchester though
Speaker 2: with the cleanup is my partner in crime, Kaylee Lines.
Speaker 2: We had a late night with a very early call.
Speaker 3: Kaylee. We've learned a lot.
Speaker 2: More since then though about turnout, about margins and big
Speaker 2: questions remaining about what the heck Nikki Haley does from here.
Speaker 3: How does it feel this morning in New Hampshire?
Speaker 4: Well tired, Joe. It feels like whatever energy was here,
Speaker 4: even though energy was probably less. The New Hampshire primaries
Speaker 4: in the past has been kind of zapped at this
Speaker 4: point because the feeling is that primary season may be over.
Speaker 4: We may now be just in the general election. Granted
Speaker 4: that's not what Nikki Haley messaged last night. She intends
Speaker 4: to take this through to South Carolina, and looking at
Speaker 4: the margin, Joe, I'm not sure we have a firm
Speaker 4: answer of whether or not it indicates that she should
Speaker 4: or should not do that. Remember when we all woke
Speaker 4: up yesterday morning here in New Hampshire, it was to
Speaker 4: news of the Suffolk University poll that said Trump was
Speaker 4: leading by twenty two points at sixty percent. Ultimately the
Speaker 4: margin we got was about half that, eleven points. Yes,
Speaker 4: that's still a pretty wide gulf between first and second place.
Speaker 4: Maybe not the strongest showing for Nicki Haley in second place,
Speaker 4: but I guess it could have been worse. It's just
Speaker 4: a question of what happens over the course of the
Speaker 4: next four weeks leading up to South Carolina, because right
Speaker 4: now Niki Haley, as we well know Joe, is pulling
Speaker 4: significantly farther behind Trump in that state. She's down more
Speaker 4: than thirty points. There is she going to want to
Speaker 4: be embarrassed like that in her home state where she
Speaker 4: served as governor.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're going to.
Speaker 2: Talk about all of this in a minute with David Paleologos,
Speaker 2: because we haven't had a heck of a lot of
Speaker 2: research since that Emerson poll showed how far behind Nicki
Speaker 2: Haley actually was in her home state, Kiley, that was
Speaker 2: before we had several candidates drop out, though, And I
Speaker 2: wonder what that shakeout is going to look like in
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Joe, what we learned here in New Hampshire is
Speaker 4: perhaps the dropping out of Chris Christi from the race
Speaker 4: may have benefited Nicki Haley, but for levik Ramaswami and
Speaker 4: Ron De Santis who dropped out between Iowa and New Hampshire,
Speaker 4: it seems like a lot of those votes did go
Speaker 4: to Trump Republican votes. That is, of course, a lot
Speaker 4: of the votes Nicki Haley got here in New Hampshire
Speaker 4: are independents, more moderate Republicans. South Carolina doesn't really reflect
Speaker 4: that demographic. As we know, Joe, it's a much more
Speaker 4: conservative state. Trump has a very strong base of support there.
Speaker 4: It's going to be really hard, but her campaign indicates
Speaker 4: maybe it's not just about South Carolina. When you look
Speaker 4: ahead to Super Two's Day a week and a half
Speaker 4: or so later on March fifth, eleven of those sixteen
Speaker 4: states have open or semi open primaries, so maybe she
Speaker 4: could try to galvanize the support of independence former Democrats
Speaker 4: for example.
Speaker 5: There.
Speaker 4: This issue is she wasn't able to pull that off
Speaker 4: here in New Hampshire, so it remains a question this
Speaker 4: morning of whether she is actually able to pull that
Speaker 4: off in any other state.
Speaker 2: Yep, you said it, Kaylee. Great to see you and
Speaker 2: great job last night. We'll check back with you a
Speaker 2: little bit later before our wheels up from Manchester, New Hampshire.
Speaker 2: Kaylee Lines reporting from Bloomberg at the scene of the crime,
Speaker 2: as we had the voice of David Paleologos. He ran
Speaker 2: that poll that Kaylee mentioned, Suffolk University Political Research Center,
Speaker 2: a director. Easy for me to say, David, it's good
Speaker 2: to see you. When folks woke up to your poll
Speaker 2: that morning in New Hampshire and saw Donald Trump at
Speaker 2: sixty percent, we thought, all right, so much for the
Speaker 2: strong finish.
Speaker 3: Let me start broadly with you here.
Speaker 2: How do you feel about the spread and the chances
Speaker 2: that Nicki Haley has to gain momentum from New Hampshire.
Speaker 5: So the spread was, as indicated, about half of what
Speaker 5: we showed twenty two versus eleven both had Donald.
Speaker 6: Trump winning comfortably.
Speaker 5: What we're looking at is the margin of error, and
Speaker 5: so I wasn't pleased that we were now teetering or
Speaker 5: not being in the margin of error. And what I
Speaker 5: mean by that is that our final tracks showed Trump
Speaker 5: at fifty nine point six and the actual last time
Speaker 5: I checked, Trump votes were fifty four point four. So
Speaker 5: it's just outside that four point four percent margin of error.
Speaker 5: And the same thing with nikkiy Haley. Nikki Haley currently
Speaker 5: is in the low forties. We had Nicki Haley at
Speaker 5: thirty eight percent, just outside the margin. There's still counting votes,
Speaker 5: but I believe it will still be outside the margin
Speaker 5: of erar. I will say that of the last five
Speaker 5: poles that were taking the Suffold Pole had Nicki Haley
Speaker 5: the highest, even though it was still low yet thirty
Speaker 5: eight yea, So I'm not it wasn't our best New
Speaker 5: Hampshire poll, but I think that the trend line was
Speaker 5: pretty consistent, and if you look at the Real Clear
Speaker 5: Politics average, it was very close.
Speaker 2: By the time you turn that into a daily rolling pole,
Speaker 2: it was one of the most important indicators we have,
Speaker 2: and I realized, you know, you're not adding that much
Speaker 2: of a sample on the daily, but you gave everybody
Speaker 2: it seems the right direction in where this was going.
Speaker 2: David Sall, congratulate you on that. Donald Trump said last night,
Speaker 2: after listening to Nicki Haley's speech, I will call it
Speaker 2: a concession speech, even though it didn't really.
Speaker 3: Sound like one. He called her delusional. Is he right?
Speaker 7: No?
Speaker 5: I think she may be cagy staying in really, you know,
Speaker 5: nobody myself, you no one should really be commenting. I
Speaker 5: mean that's a personal decision. But she stays in not
Speaker 5: to meet him with delegates. She that's you know, I mean,
Speaker 5: there are too many close primaries and winner take all,
Speaker 5: he said, Trumps just going to amass.
Speaker 6: A huge lead.
Speaker 5: Staying in means could I be the last person standing
Speaker 5: if Trump were to be convicted? And knowing how independence
Speaker 5: will turn on Trump if he is convicted. So it's
Speaker 5: not that she thinks that there's a path delegate wise.
Speaker 5: I mean she's going to lose all the delegates in Nevada.
Speaker 5: She's not eligible, but you know, why not. She's got
Speaker 5: the money. Why not give it a shot in South Carolina?
Speaker 5: The problem with staying in South Carolina and losing badly.
Speaker 5: Let's say she loses by another twelve points, eleven ten points,
Speaker 5: what then?
Speaker 6: What then?
Speaker 5: Especially what then for twenty twenty eight.
Speaker 3: So it's looking like South Carolina the last stand.
Speaker 2: If she stays in, there's some or of the mind
Speaker 2: that she might drop out before if it looks like
Speaker 2: a potential embarrassment to your point, that might impact her
Speaker 2: reputation going forward. But the last I can see, by
Speaker 2: the way, at least in terms of major polls, was
Speaker 2: Emerson January fifth, Trump fifty four, Hailey twenty five in
Speaker 2: South Carolina. That was before run DeSantis bailed. And I
Speaker 2: wonder if you've seen anything newer than that, if that's
Speaker 2: the baseline four weeks out.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I haven't seen anything newer. I think the pre
Speaker 5: polling is going to be the same. It's going to
Speaker 5: be even if she jumps up five ten points, you know,
Speaker 5: Trump will be ahead by maybe not thirty points, but
Speaker 5: maybe by twenty points, and then it'll be whether or not,
Speaker 5: you know, she gets close and loses by ten or twelve.
Speaker 5: I think there are too many traditional voters, Republican voters
Speaker 5: in South Carolina as they were in Iowa for her
Speaker 5: to totally turn the tables, but it's definitely worth a shot.
Speaker 5: And I think for Super Tuesday, Joe, you know, you know,
Speaker 5: she came somewhat close. I mean, it wasn't really that
Speaker 5: close in New Hampshire, and the spread was thirty percent
Speaker 5: registered Republicans in New Hampshire and forty percent independence. If
Speaker 5: she stayed through Super Tuesdays, she could win Massachusetts. Massachusetts,
Speaker 5: it's only ten percent registered Republicans and sixty percent independent.
Speaker 5: So and I don't know polling to support that, but
Speaker 5: my guess is if the ratio was thirty forty and
Speaker 5: she was within eleven, the ratio is ten Republicans sixty independent,
Speaker 5: she probably But then what but then what?
Speaker 6: Right? She went right in Massachusetts?
Speaker 5: That doesn't really get her anything further in terms of
Speaker 5: the total delegate.
Speaker 2: I think it says a lot about the Republican contest
Speaker 2: if it's coming down to battleground Massachusetts.
Speaker 3: David This jumped off the page this morning.
Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal crunching numbers from AP vote cast last night,
Speaker 2: warning signs for Trump. Nineteen percent of Republicans who cast
Speaker 2: ballots in New Hampshire said they would be so dissatisfied
Speaker 2: with Trump as the nominee, they would not vote for him.
Speaker 2: In November, we saw a similar number who participated in
Speaker 2: the Iowa caucuses say the very same thing. We know
Speaker 2: there was a lot of noise with independence in New Hampshire.
Speaker 2: How much of a concern is this for the Trump
Speaker 2: campaign or is this just fringe conversation at this point?
Speaker 5: No, it's but I think in that analysis they should
Speaker 5: have included that they weren't automatically voting for Biden, they
Speaker 5: weren't comfortable voting for Trump, but they may vote third party.
Speaker 5: So it's not a plus two difference minus one from
Speaker 5: Trump and plus one for Biden. It might have been
Speaker 5: minus one for Trump but plus one for Kennedy. So
Speaker 5: I think, you know, and it's the same thing with
Speaker 5: black voters who are less enthusiastic about Trump. It doesn't
Speaker 5: mean that they're going to rotate to Trump. They may
Speaker 5: rotate to corn Out, lester Stein or a third party candidate.
Speaker 5: And that's why I think this is setting up for
Speaker 5: a potential story for a strong independent candidate, whether it's
Speaker 5: No Labels or right now it's RFK Jr. Who's got
Speaker 5: the most for an independent. But with this kind of matchup,
Speaker 5: the Trump Biden matchup. You know, a third party option
Speaker 5: is more viable to me.
Speaker 3: Well, that's sure seeming like it, David.
Speaker 2: We've talked to folks at No Labels who've told us,
Speaker 2: and you've heard this before. If by Super Tuesday, this
Speaker 2: does seem clear that it's Trump versus Biden.
Speaker 3: We're running a candidate.
Speaker 2: They're not on the ballot in every state, though, and
Speaker 2: that's partly why people say this is just a spoiler act,
Speaker 2: because they don't have a real chance of winning.
Speaker 5: What do you think, Yeah, I think that's true. I
Speaker 5: mean Ross Perot was on every ballot. I mean even
Speaker 5: the Libertarian Joe Jorgans and Last Ramos on every ballot.
Speaker 5: So ballot access is important, and every state has their
Speaker 5: own rules and rags. Look at Nevada, that's a for
Speaker 5: the primary. I mean you've got a primary and but
Speaker 5: no delegates to a lot of the primary and only
Speaker 5: the caucuses, and Nikki Haley's not eligible, and so every
Speaker 5: state has their own rules, and every party within every state,
Speaker 5: you know, acts accordingly. But yeah, I mean I think
Speaker 5: those are those are those are issues that we're going
Speaker 5: to continue to track going forward.
Speaker 3: Big win last night for Joe Biden.
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, it's just to think of a president of
Speaker 2: the United States at this stage of the game in
Speaker 2: a writing campaign fifty five percent. Dean Phillips, he said,
Speaker 2: look at me, I could get twenty percent, and he
Speaker 2: almost did. Nineteen point five. Is the Dean Phillips act over?
Speaker 2: Did he prove a point? What do we get on
Speaker 2: the dem side?
Speaker 5: Well, I mean, you know, you've got the same problem
Speaker 5: on the DEM side. I mean, why would a Democrat
Speaker 5: who's supporting Joe Biden go in and embarrass Joe Biden
Speaker 5: by going in and voting for Dean Phillips. So again,
Speaker 5: this is the reason why Democrat, Republicans, and mostly independents
Speaker 5: they don't want this matchup. And it's it's you know,
Speaker 5: from afar. It's very interesting to observe because it's almost
Speaker 5: like the political parties set up their primaries and caucuses
Speaker 5: deliberately to benefit the people who are eventually going to win.
Speaker 5: And you know, I know that the people oken, but look,
Speaker 5: you know, I mean the public is going to be
Speaker 5: forced to pick a candidate. If they only pick one
Speaker 5: of two a candidate that's the less than two evils,
Speaker 5: and that doesn't speak well for the system.
Speaker 2: And so therefore what we have in common now on
Speaker 2: both sides is this idea that you can have a
Speaker 2: campaign hang in there just barely enough to be available
Speaker 2: in case the front runner becomes incapacitated, whether it's Dean
Speaker 2: Phillips or I guess that's not the most respectful way
Speaker 2: to describe Nikki Haley's campaign right now. But if she
Speaker 2: just decides to nibble along and get delegates to stay
Speaker 2: in the game in case somebody gets convicted of something,
Speaker 2: for instance, that really is the same campaign strategy that
Speaker 2: Dean Phillips is running.
Speaker 5: Yeah, exactly, you know, and you know it might be
Speaker 5: the why strategy. You know, she's gone, you know, in
Speaker 5: the states that allocate proportionally, she is going to pick
Speaker 5: off delegates. But if there's a Kumbaya moment or not
Speaker 5: in Milwaukee at the Republican Convention, for example, who are
Speaker 5: they going to pick Nicky Haley? I mean Nicki Haley.
Speaker 5: Even in New Hampshire last night, and it was similar
Speaker 5: to the polling, she was losing by fifty points among
Speaker 5: registered Republicans in New Hampshire fifty five zero, you know,
Speaker 5: and were it not for Governor Sanunu's ground operation identifying
Speaker 5: Trump hating independence and increasing that proportion. So how do
Speaker 5: you nominate Nicky Haley when she's not you know, she's
Speaker 5: not liked by such a wide march, you know, And
Speaker 5: so you may have someone drafted on the Democrats side,
Speaker 5: but also on the Republican side, if you know, if
Speaker 5: things don't work out legally for former President Trump.
Speaker 2: God knows, we have this fantasy of a contested convention
Speaker 2: every four years and it never happens. But boy, it
Speaker 2: seems like something could be real. David's great to see you,
Speaker 2: Thanks for coming along. David Paley, Loogo's Suffolk University Political
Speaker 2: Research Center director, with the latest numbers here on the trail.
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. We're back in the Capitol.
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 2: Another incredible experience here covering Iowa and New Hampshire back
Speaker 2: to back by the way, the final in New Hampshire
Speaker 2: Donald Trump fifty four, Nikki Haley forty three. Remembering the
Speaker 2: poll that we walked into this from Suffolk University, it
Speaker 2: said sixty percent for Donald Trump. But of course this
Speaker 2: had a lot more to do with the trajectory of
Speaker 2: these two candidates, not necessarily predicting the spread. And that's
Speaker 2: where we start our conversation with somebody who not only
Speaker 2: knows polls, but New Hampshire as well as anyone here.
Speaker 2: Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center,
Speaker 2: is back with us. He's been a reliable voice as
Speaker 2: always through this process. And Andrew, it's great to see
Speaker 2: you this day after. I wonder your thoughts because we
Speaker 2: were speculating, we were wondering what was going to happen.
Speaker 2: Twenty four hours before the contest. You were with us
Speaker 2: here on Bloomberg. Did New Hampshire just pick the Republican nominee?
Speaker 7: I think so unless something dramatic happens now in the convention,
Speaker 7: either legal or medical, or knows what else it would be,
Speaker 7: but it has to be incredibly dramatic for Trump not.
Speaker 6: To get the nomination.
Speaker 7: I think that maybe the only outside chance that Haley has,
Speaker 7: and I think maybe this is why she's continuing to
Speaker 7: go is she the Bible candidate and can build up
Speaker 7: a certain number of delegates. She may be able to
Speaker 7: be in a position should something happen to be seen
Speaker 7: as the next the next most logical Republican to be
Speaker 7: the nominee for November. But it would really require on
Speaker 7: something outside of control of the campaign.
Speaker 3: Isn't that something? So there's almost no point in advertising.
Speaker 3: Just wait around and see what happens.
Speaker 2: I guess some of the data that we pulled out
Speaker 2: of the voting last night, Andrew, among independent voters, I'd
Speaker 2: like to hear from you on this, because they of
Speaker 2: course characterize New Hampshire in a very special way.
Speaker 3: Among independent voters, sixty six percent said they would not
Speaker 3: vote for Donald Trump in November if he was the nominee.
Speaker 3: What does that mean to you as you look forward
Speaker 3: to a general that could already underway.
Speaker 7: Well, I would say, first off, we have to discount
Speaker 7: there may be ten percent or so of those independents
Speaker 7: who voted in the primary yesterday, they're really Democrats. They
Speaker 7: vote actively Democratic. Typically they're not going to vote for Trump.
Speaker 6: Regardless.
Speaker 7: But what I've seen over the history here in New Hampshire,
Speaker 7: but also in the history of political science, going back
Speaker 7: to research published in the nineteen sixties, is that the
Speaker 7: partisanship is such a strong driver of what goes on.
Speaker 7: And my sense is that those Republicans who say they're
Speaker 7: never going to vote for Trump, they'll rationalize why Trump
Speaker 7: is better than Biden when it comes around to November.
Speaker 7: It's like, yeah, we know he's a skunk, but our
Speaker 7: sunk skunk is better than your party's skunk. So you'll
Speaker 7: see a lot of that. We heard that in twenty sixteen,
Speaker 7: we heard that in twenty twenty as well from Republicans.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, I'll tell you what.
Speaker 2: There are a lot of questions about how Nikki Haley
Speaker 2: is going to spend the next four weeks. How can
Speaker 2: she learn from what happened in New Hampshire to potentially
Speaker 2: improve her chances here, because the makeup in New Hampshire
Speaker 2: is like a different universe from what she's going into
Speaker 2: in South Carolina.
Speaker 7: I don't know if there is that much to learn
Speaker 7: from New Hampshire, because frankly, I think she ran an
Speaker 7: excellent race here. She did about as good as you
Speaker 7: could expect anybody to do. Where you've got Donald Trump
Speaker 7: getting a significant majority of those registered Republican voters. She
Speaker 7: played the only hand that she had, but the cards
Speaker 7: were relatively weak, and she did an excellent job with
Speaker 7: the week hand. She's going into South Carolina where her
Speaker 7: cards are even weaker, not because she's not popular in
Speaker 7: the state and she's better known, but South Carolina's electorate
Speaker 7: they elected Donald Trump significantly in twenty and sixteen and
Speaker 7: in twenty twenty, and I don't think they'll see any
Speaker 7: reason why they should throw him overboard, even if it
Speaker 7: is for a governor that they know and like.
Speaker 2: Your poll Andrews Smith of a little less than two
Speaker 2: weeks ago had them within single digits. That changed pretty
Speaker 2: quickly as candidates began dropping and as they moved through Iowa.
Speaker 2: When are we going to start seeing indications of how
Speaker 2: the Ron de Santis votes were distributed and how did
Speaker 2: that change so quickly in a week's time to go
Speaker 2: from single digits to what we got last night.
Speaker 7: Well, I think it's important to remember that Donald Trump
Speaker 7: had about forty to forty two percent of the electorate
Speaker 7: in New Hampshire locked up a year ago, if not
Speaker 7: eight years ago. So his voters were there, and then
Speaker 7: you had a lot of people that were looking at
Speaker 7: other ones. You had the anti trumpers with Chris Christie.
Speaker 7: You had Nikki Haley trying to play a middle road.
Speaker 7: You had the Trump light candidates with Rameshwamy and DeSantis.
Speaker 7: But those in our polling when Christie, if you asked
Speaker 7: Christie voters who their second choice was, it was Haley,
Speaker 7: and when he dropped out, they moved over to her.
Speaker 7: That's why she got this boot, this bump. But when
Speaker 7: first Ramaswami and then Desantras dropped out, their second choice
Speaker 7: was always Trump, so they drifted over to Trump. It
Speaker 7: was not a question in this election of Trump versus
Speaker 7: everybody else or the anti Trump. It was Trump, the
Speaker 7: Trump Light and the anti Trumps, and the anti Trump
Speaker 7: went for instead of Trump Light, they went for full
Speaker 7: strength Trump.
Speaker 3: How about that?
Speaker 2: Sounds like that thirty point spread that I mentioned in
Speaker 2: the Emerson Paul South Carolina might still be the case.
Speaker 2: How about no labels. They've already come to New Hampshire
Speaker 2: a few times. I've seen Joe Manchin up there holding
Speaker 2: events on a potential third party run. There's something New
Speaker 2: Hampshirey about that, Andrew, if we get to Super Tuesday,
Speaker 2: to you take that group at its word that they
Speaker 2: will run a candidate, and how could it possibly work
Speaker 2: when they aren't going to be likely on the ballot everywhere?
Speaker 7: Well, I think any third party is going to be
Speaker 7: a spoiler, and basically you're going to have to start
Speaker 7: to look at who they're drawing votes from. And it's
Speaker 7: really way too early to start to even think about
Speaker 7: those things. Voters aren't paying that much attention frankly too
Speaker 7: the general election in the fall. Yet they are in
Speaker 7: the early states like New Hampshire, Iowa and now coming
Speaker 7: up South Carolina. But a third party is going to
Speaker 7: have a very, very difficult challenge. As I mentioned, the
Speaker 7: voters in the United States can rationalize why their party
Speaker 7: is as bad as the candidate is is better than
Speaker 7: the other party's candidate. And if you think back to
Speaker 7: third party candidates in recent memory, with Ross Perrot, he
Speaker 7: got nineteen percent in nineteen ninety two with two kind
Speaker 7: of amazing our candidates, but he didn't get a single
Speaker 7: electoral vote. He was a spoiler at best, not a
Speaker 7: really credible candidate for winning.
Speaker 2: The election, not that we don't already have potential spoilers
Speaker 2: out there, right, RFK Junior.
Speaker 3: We've got third party candidates.
Speaker 2: That I could rattle off here that don't necessarily carry
Speaker 2: the no Labels brand.
Speaker 3: What's the difference?
Speaker 6: Not much?
Speaker 7: Actually, I think RFK Junior is probably in a better
Speaker 7: position than the no Labels brand. They're not a known commodity,
Speaker 7: they're not a party in the traditional sense of a party,
Speaker 7: their movement so to speak, at best. But they're going
Speaker 7: to need somebody who's a very charismatic person, very popular,
Speaker 7: very well known, who's going to be able to lead
Speaker 7: the charge, because I don't think people are going to
Speaker 7: go and vote for a relatively unknown candidate that they
Speaker 7: don't know how they're going to govern, who will have
Speaker 7: no governing party in Washington, then looking at who their
Speaker 7: own candidate is and saying, you know what, I'll just
Speaker 7: pick with the try and prove even if I don't
Speaker 7: really like it.
Speaker 2: So add up RFK Junior, Cornell West and the rest.
Speaker 2: Is there already enough potential interruption for Joe Biden worry
Speaker 2: about it?
Speaker 3: Sounds like yes, yeah, I.
Speaker 6: Think there is. I think that both candidates have to
Speaker 6: worry about this.
Speaker 7: It's just really too early for us to say who
Speaker 7: it's going to bite them bite the hardest. You can
Speaker 7: make an argument both ways, but I think it's too
Speaker 7: early because frankly, again, voters aren't paying attention much to this.
Speaker 7: Voters will pay attend to the elections when they have to,
Speaker 7: and that's usually just before the election. The money issue
Speaker 7: is important for the candidates and the campaigns. How do
Speaker 7: you keep this thing rolling if your candidate, if your
Speaker 7: voter or your candidates aren't that popular. How do you
Speaker 7: keep voters engaged when they're looking at their candidates and
Speaker 7: neither party really is in love with their party's candidate.
Speaker 7: How do you keep them focused? And that's a hard
Speaker 7: thing to do.
Speaker 2: Strikes me Andrew that if Donald Trump wanted to give
Speaker 2: this the appearance of shutting down the Republican primary, you
Speaker 2: just go ahead and announce a vice presidential pick right now.
Speaker 2: Remember when Ted Cruz tried to pull that off. Just
Speaker 2: form your own ticket before you even get to a convention.
Speaker 2: I don't know if you see that happening, it feels
Speaker 2: like something very very trumpy thing to do. Who's on
Speaker 2: the top of that short list? Will geography matter this time?
Speaker 2: Are the normal rules in place or does Trump seem
Speaker 2: to be the exception to that as well.
Speaker 7: I think Trump's not likely to pay attention to theditional
Speaker 7: things like choosing somebody from the other wing of your party,
Speaker 7: or choosing somebody for their ability to draw votes in
Speaker 7: a battleground state or a large battleground state. I frankly
Speaker 7: think he's going to get a loyalist, somebody who's going
Speaker 7: to parrot the message that he has, who's not going
Speaker 7: to stray or say something that he might disagree with.
Speaker 7: And he's going to want somebody who's going to back
Speaker 7: him up in those legal troubles that he's got. So
Speaker 7: I think he's going to want somebody who's got an
Speaker 7: oath of loyalty to him, and I don't think that
Speaker 7: that's going to turn off the Trump voters.
Speaker 6: In fact, I think his supporters, if.
Speaker 7: Anything, want to see somebody like that rather than, you know,
Speaker 7: somebody from another wing of the party.
Speaker 2: So you're talking at least to Phonic a couple of
Speaker 2: other names around there.
Speaker 3: Carrie Lake might ring true to you. What do you think, Andrew.
Speaker 7: I think that both of those people could be on
Speaker 7: his short list, and they'll probably have to swear on
Speaker 7: a stack of bibles that they're going to they'll pardon
Speaker 7: him if if need be. But I think there's it's
Speaker 7: going to be tough for them to find some who
Speaker 7: has some national credibility, who's with Trump, who's not going
Speaker 7: to stray away from Trump, and who's not going to
Speaker 7: look like somebody who's been effectively politically neutered if they
Speaker 7: join the campaign.
Speaker 2: So then if it's the Trump campaign and no rules apply,
Speaker 2: that choice that's so important for presidential candidates probably won't
Speaker 2: move the needle in the polls. Right, this is the
Speaker 2: most stable looking race that we've ever seen when it
Speaker 2: comes to Trump's base.
Speaker 7: I think so, and they actually look at the political
Speaker 7: science on it. The vice presidential pick generally doesn't make
Speaker 7: much difference at all. John Dyan s Gardner famously said
Speaker 7: it's not worth being not worth a warm bucket of
Speaker 7: as he said, spit, but he meant something else. It's
Speaker 7: not something that really the voters are waiting for. It's
Speaker 7: kind of a news story a bit. It's something to
Speaker 7: talk about during the convention when it's traditionally announced, but
Speaker 7: it's just not that big of a deal. But in
Speaker 7: this case, we have two very old candidates for whom
Speaker 7: the choice of vice president becomes looms a little bit
Speaker 7: larger than might be the case of the president is
Speaker 7: fifty years old, and that's going to be I think
Speaker 7: the discussion is how young, how vigorous, and how this
Speaker 7: person would look as potentially a president within before the
Speaker 7: end of the current president's term.
Speaker 2: I've got less than a minute, Andrew Smith. Some suggested
Speaker 2: while I was in Manchester that the primary was broken.
Speaker 2: Is it going to be like the good old days
Speaker 2: four years from now?
Speaker 6: There were many things that happened.
Speaker 7: If you walked on the streets of Manchester this weekend,
Speaker 7: it looked like a ghost town compared to past primariy.
Speaker 7: The Democratic Party took the big step of essentially bypassing
Speaker 7: New Hampshire for the first time. They wanted to do
Speaker 7: it in decades, but they finally took the step. The
Speaker 7: Republican primaris it wasn't that interesting because of an incumbent.
Speaker 7: Perhaps the kind of the lull that we saw this
Speaker 7: year was due to the candidates in particular situations.
Speaker 6: People.
Speaker 2: I want to see the carnival come back to town.
Speaker 2: Andrew Smith. It's great to see you again. From the
Speaker 2: University of New Hampshire. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 2: Joe Biden and Donald Trump have something in common. They're
Speaker 2: both acting like the general election is now underway. They
Speaker 2: say it began last night if you really look at
Speaker 2: the statements they both issued. Listen to Donald Trump's speech, certainly,
Speaker 2: and that's why Joe Biden's day today is important, not
Speaker 2: with an eye on South Carolina, but Michigan, where today
Speaker 2: he's expected that the UAW will endorse his presidential bid,
Speaker 2: remembering Joe Biden became the first president to walk a
Speaker 2: picket line and his support of the UAW strike against
Speaker 2: the Big Three. We assemble our panel for their take
Speaker 2: on what happened last night and what may already be happening,
Speaker 2: even as Nicki Haley vows to stay on in this race.
Speaker 2: Lester Munson is with US Principle at BGR Group Republican Strategists,
Speaker 2: along with Alvin Jordan Rock Solutions, Vice President Democratic analyst.
Speaker 2: It's great to have both of you with us here.
Speaker 2: Joe Biden is acting like the general is underway, Alvin,
Speaker 2: with this endorsement from the UAW which Donald Trump is
Speaker 2: also seeking, help him along the way in the months ahead.
Speaker 8: Absolutely, I think regardless of what happens with Donald Trump
Speaker 8: and Nicki Haley for President Biden, he for sure has
Speaker 8: to get on the campaign trail because it has started
Speaker 8: in effect for him, and the first thing from a
Speaker 8: priority standpoint that he has to wrap up his support
Speaker 8: and if he can't secure this, it would for sure
Speaker 8: put a wrinkle in his plans for how he would
Speaker 8: like to roll out his campaign officially. So he is,
Speaker 8: as you could imagine, they're, you know, trying to cash
Speaker 8: in on some of that goodwill as you mentioned that
Speaker 8: as presidential walk to Pitty Vine to actually come up
Speaker 8: with some official support, and I think he definitely needs
Speaker 8: it well.
Speaker 3: So I guess that move paid off.
Speaker 2: It was considered controversial at the time here, Lester, but
Speaker 2: we also spoke while that was going on, while the
Speaker 2: strike was underway, by the fact that rank and file
Speaker 2: union workers auto workers in Michigan voted for Donald Trump
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty. What will this do to change their vote?
Speaker 2: Do they follow Sean Fain in the leadership here?
Speaker 9: Well, that remains to be seen. I suspect the rank
Speaker 9: and file is not going to follow their leadership on
Speaker 9: this issue. This is part of the Trump populist appeal, right,
Speaker 9: He's reaching out to the kind of the regular Joe
Speaker 9: past the elites in this case the union leadership, or
Speaker 9: that's certainly what he's going to try to be doing
Speaker 9: this And this is a weak spot in the Biden coalition.
Speaker 9: So the fact that the president President Biden is acting
Speaker 9: like this is a general I think he has to
Speaker 9: be doing that. It is very likely he's going to
Speaker 9: be facing Donald Trump. And this is a demographic that
Speaker 9: Trump is going to pursue aggressively and relentlessly. And so
Speaker 9: this is this is You're absolutely right, Joe, this is
Speaker 9: the first step for the president in the general election.
Speaker 2: How about that? I'm drawn to the headline on the
Speaker 2: front of the Union Leader, the New Hampshire Union Leader,
Speaker 2: which just days earlier endorsed Nicky Haley. Alvin, you saw
Speaker 2: the results last night, another big win for Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: The headline voters say they were motivated by Trump one
Speaker 2: way or another, suggesting that you had passion on behalf
Speaker 2: of his supporters and passionate protest votes by those, in
Speaker 2: many cases independents who voted for Nicki Haley. Is that
Speaker 2: a strategy going forward? If you're the underdog and you're
Speaker 2: a protest vote as opposed to something people are voting for,
Speaker 2: can you sustain a campaign in that environment?
Speaker 8: No, is the short answer. And unfortunately, you know, in
Speaker 8: one of the opinion pieces I believe in The Times
Speaker 8: this morning, they used the phrasing of a lovely illusion,
Speaker 8: and I think that is so accurate in kind of
Speaker 8: where and how we've arrived today. I was in Iowa
Speaker 8: and actually got to hear some of what you know,
Speaker 8: Nicki Haley was saying, and I looked around the room
Speaker 8: to take a quick inventory, and it very much seemed
Speaker 8: like she had the people on her side as it were,
Speaker 8: and then, as we all know, it didn't go in
Speaker 8: her favorite to the to the point of third place.
Speaker 8: And so I just think that we're seeing to fruition
Speaker 8: a lot of what is and sounds great. I mean,
Speaker 8: even in the midst of you know, allegations and actual
Speaker 8: you know, court hearings where we see the former president
Speaker 8: out front and literally dealing with all of this, and
Speaker 8: people still show up by and large to support him.
Speaker 8: And so again I think from a president, you know
Speaker 8: Biden's point of view, you have to activate and believe
Speaker 8: that this is happening, and you can't really allow you know,
Speaker 8: whether Nikki Haley will stick around or kind of where
Speaker 8: she's arrived personally to slow down the momentum that they'll
Speaker 8: need to garner support, because if they do, I think
Speaker 8: what we'll look around and see similar to twenty sixteen
Speaker 8: in a different way, but definitely you know where we
Speaker 8: are now, which is people show up support vote for
Speaker 8: the former president pretty pretty consistently.
Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you, the conventional wisdom of this day
Speaker 2: after the primary is that this is over, that Nikki
Speaker 2: Haley will eventually have to drop out of the race here.
Speaker 2: But she's got a lot of money, Lester, She's sinking
Speaker 2: four million dollars into ads in South Carolina. At what
Speaker 2: point will she need to win something to keep this rolling?
Speaker 9: Well, pretty soon, she's got a plausible case to make right.
Speaker 9: South Carolina's her home state. She knows it. She's going
Speaker 9: to have to figure out a way to overcome this
Speaker 9: thirty point apparent thirty point gap with Trump. Can she
Speaker 9: appeal to Republican women voters? Can she appeal to those
Speaker 9: folks who are skeptical of Trump? Does he make some
Speaker 9: more mistakes on the stump? Does he have a health issue?
Speaker 9: Her being in the game might change it a little bit.
Speaker 9: This is a crazy year. It's hard to I think
Speaker 9: it's a mistake to predict too much. Certainly Trump is
Speaker 9: in the best position here, but we've also got a
Speaker 9: look to see. The longer this goes on, the less
Speaker 9: likely it is that Trump is going to be able
Speaker 9: to prevail in the general. He's going to have to
Speaker 9: make a pivot to appeal to a broader range of voters.
Speaker 9: He's got to try to appeal to independence. He's got
Speaker 9: to try to appeal to Republicans who are skeptical of him.
Speaker 9: If he doesn't do that soon, it's going to become
Speaker 9: harder and harder and harder to do as this campaign
Speaker 9: goes onward.
Speaker 2: Talk to us about independence, Alvin. Among those who voted
Speaker 2: in New Hampshire, a state defined by its independent or
Speaker 2: as they say, undeclared voters, sixty six percent said they
Speaker 2: would not vote for Donald Trump in November if he
Speaker 2: was the nominee. That's advantage Biden, you.
Speaker 8: Would, you would like to think, and I think for
Speaker 8: the you know, for the for the president, like that
Speaker 8: is an area where you have to you know, go
Speaker 8: and try to capture as much that as soon as
Speaker 8: you possibly can. I think, you know, again to the
Speaker 8: points that we've we've made just previously, how much of
Speaker 8: that is actually real. I was, you know, taking in
Speaker 8: a quick look at a couple of the town halls
Speaker 8: that that we're broadcast yesterday after the polls had closed,
Speaker 8: and even in the room, you could tell, as people
Speaker 8: were kind of on the fence from an independent standpoint
Speaker 8: of not wanting to declare a vote for President Trump,
Speaker 8: that it still seemed that when it came down to it,
Speaker 8: they would, you know, essentially tow the party line or
Speaker 8: even from an independent perspective kind of look that way.
Speaker 8: And I just don't think that you can necessarily trust
Speaker 8: that I will vote against President Trump will actually hold true.
Speaker 8: And if you're President Biden, I think you have to immediately,
Speaker 8: you know, start trying to appeal and pull in some
Speaker 8: of those voters who are seemingly on the fence Otherwise,
Speaker 8: I think we end up as we have in the
Speaker 8: past and are looking at another Trump administration. If that's
Speaker 8: a segment of people that the current administration can't pull
Speaker 8: to their side.
Speaker 2: We're about to get crushed with a lot of ads.
Speaker 2: And having just survived Iowa in New Hampshire, they are
Speaker 2: still rattling around in my head. We've got less than
Speaker 2: a minute here for this part of our conversation, Lester.
Speaker 2: Nicky Haley's got twenty twenty eight to think about a
Speaker 2: much longer road ahead than Donald Trump.
Speaker 3: Needs to worry about.
Speaker 2: A massive embarrassment in South Carolina, where she's polling now
Speaker 2: thirty points behind Donald Trump, could impact her chances down
Speaker 2: the road. Is that something she needs to avoid?
Speaker 9: You know who knows? I think all the old rules
Speaker 9: are out the window. Is Desanti's applausible candidate in twenty
Speaker 9: eight is Tim Scott. They've you know, they've taken some
Speaker 9: hits and gotten some extra baggage here as they got
Speaker 9: out of the race. I don't know that there's a
Speaker 9: real good formula here for Nicky Haley. I think I
Speaker 9: like the fact that she's I confess I'm a little
Speaker 9: partial to her. I like the fact that she's fighting.
Speaker 9: I think that's going to resonate well for her. She
Speaker 9: is going to have to figure out if she does
Speaker 9: this again in four years, assuming she doesn't get it now,
Speaker 9: how to appeal to those Trump voters, and you know,
Speaker 9: being a little pugilistic might help her do that.
Speaker 2: Great analysis from our panel. It's amazing what happens when
Speaker 2: you actually get some votes instead of just polling and
Speaker 2: forecast to talk about. Democratic analyst Alvin Jordan, Rock Solutions,
Speaker 2: Republican strategist Leicster months in BGR Government affairs.
Speaker 3: Many thanks for the insights today