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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 1: Broudoto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We're running on fumes today that goes for the entire

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Speaker 2: political class on early flights out of New Hampshire, some

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Speaker 2: late flights out of Boston because they don't hang around

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Speaker 2: after a contest like that, not for very long.

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Speaker 3: Of course, the Nicki Haley campaign.

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Speaker 2: Has big work to do, and while Donald Trump never

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Speaker 2: stays overnight there to begin with. Still in Manchester though

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Speaker 2: with the cleanup is my partner in crime, Kaylee Lines.

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Speaker 2: We had a late night with a very early call.

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Speaker 3: Kaylee. We've learned a lot.

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Speaker 2: More since then though about turnout, about margins and big

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Speaker 2: questions remaining about what the heck Nikki Haley does from here.

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Speaker 3: How does it feel this morning in New Hampshire?

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Speaker 4: Well tired, Joe. It feels like whatever energy was here,

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Speaker 4: even though energy was probably less. The New Hampshire primaries

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Speaker 4: in the past has been kind of zapped at this

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Speaker 4: point because the feeling is that primary season may be over.

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Speaker 4: We may now be just in the general election. Granted

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Speaker 4: that's not what Nikki Haley messaged last night. She intends

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Speaker 4: to take this through to South Carolina, and looking at

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Speaker 4: the margin, Joe, I'm not sure we have a firm

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Speaker 4: answer of whether or not it indicates that she should

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Speaker 4: or should not do that. Remember when we all woke

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Speaker 4: up yesterday morning here in New Hampshire, it was to

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Speaker 4: news of the Suffolk University poll that said Trump was

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Speaker 4: leading by twenty two points at sixty percent. Ultimately the

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Speaker 4: margin we got was about half that, eleven points. Yes,

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Speaker 4: that's still a pretty wide gulf between first and second place.

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Speaker 4: Maybe not the strongest showing for Nicki Haley in second place,

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Speaker 4: but I guess it could have been worse. It's just

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Speaker 4: a question of what happens over the course of the

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Speaker 4: next four weeks leading up to South Carolina, because right

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Speaker 4: now Niki Haley, as we well know Joe, is pulling

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Speaker 4: significantly farther behind Trump in that state. She's down more

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Speaker 4: than thirty points. There is she going to want to

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Speaker 4: be embarrassed like that in her home state where she

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Speaker 4: served as governor.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we're going to.

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Speaker 2: Talk about all of this in a minute with David Paleologos,

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Speaker 2: because we haven't had a heck of a lot of

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Speaker 2: research since that Emerson poll showed how far behind Nicki

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Speaker 2: Haley actually was in her home state, Kiley, that was

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Speaker 2: before we had several candidates drop out, though, And I

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Speaker 2: wonder what that shakeout is going to look like in

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Speaker 2: a couple of weeks.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Joe, what we learned here in New Hampshire is

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Speaker 4: perhaps the dropping out of Chris Christi from the race

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Speaker 4: may have benefited Nicki Haley, but for levik Ramaswami and

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Speaker 4: Ron De Santis who dropped out between Iowa and New Hampshire,

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Speaker 4: it seems like a lot of those votes did go

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Speaker 4: to Trump Republican votes. That is, of course, a lot

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Speaker 4: of the votes Nicki Haley got here in New Hampshire

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Speaker 4: are independents, more moderate Republicans. South Carolina doesn't really reflect

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Speaker 4: that demographic. As we know, Joe, it's a much more

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Speaker 4: conservative state. Trump has a very strong base of support there.

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Speaker 4: It's going to be really hard, but her campaign indicates

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Speaker 4: maybe it's not just about South Carolina. When you look

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Speaker 4: ahead to Super Two's Day a week and a half

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Speaker 4: or so later on March fifth, eleven of those sixteen

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Speaker 4: states have open or semi open primaries, so maybe she

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Speaker 4: could try to galvanize the support of independence former Democrats

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Speaker 4: for example.

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Speaker 5: There.

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Speaker 4: This issue is she wasn't able to pull that off

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Speaker 4: here in New Hampshire, so it remains a question this

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Speaker 4: morning of whether she is actually able to pull that

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Speaker 4: off in any other state.

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Speaker 2: Yep, you said it, Kaylee. Great to see you and

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Speaker 2: great job last night. We'll check back with you a

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Speaker 2: little bit later before our wheels up from Manchester, New Hampshire.

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Speaker 2: Kaylee Lines reporting from Bloomberg at the scene of the crime,

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Speaker 2: as we had the voice of David Paleologos. He ran

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Speaker 2: that poll that Kaylee mentioned, Suffolk University Political Research Center,

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Speaker 2: a director. Easy for me to say, David, it's good

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Speaker 2: to see you. When folks woke up to your poll

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Speaker 2: that morning in New Hampshire and saw Donald Trump at

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Speaker 2: sixty percent, we thought, all right, so much for the

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Speaker 2: strong finish.

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Speaker 3: Let me start broadly with you here.

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Speaker 2: How do you feel about the spread and the chances

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Speaker 2: that Nicki Haley has to gain momentum from New Hampshire.

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Speaker 5: So the spread was, as indicated, about half of what

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Speaker 5: we showed twenty two versus eleven both had Donald.

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Speaker 6: Trump winning comfortably.

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Speaker 5: What we're looking at is the margin of error, and

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Speaker 5: so I wasn't pleased that we were now teetering or

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Speaker 5: not being in the margin of error. And what I

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Speaker 5: mean by that is that our final tracks showed Trump

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Speaker 5: at fifty nine point six and the actual last time

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Speaker 5: I checked, Trump votes were fifty four point four. So

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Speaker 5: it's just outside that four point four percent margin of error.

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Speaker 5: And the same thing with nikkiy Haley. Nikki Haley currently

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Speaker 5: is in the low forties. We had Nicki Haley at

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Speaker 5: thirty eight percent, just outside the margin. There's still counting votes,

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Speaker 5: but I believe it will still be outside the margin

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Speaker 5: of erar. I will say that of the last five

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Speaker 5: poles that were taking the Suffold Pole had Nicki Haley

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Speaker 5: the highest, even though it was still low yet thirty

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Speaker 5: eight yea, So I'm not it wasn't our best New

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Speaker 5: Hampshire poll, but I think that the trend line was

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Speaker 5: pretty consistent, and if you look at the Real Clear

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Speaker 5: Politics average, it was very close.

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Speaker 2: By the time you turn that into a daily rolling pole,

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Speaker 2: it was one of the most important indicators we have,

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Speaker 2: and I realized, you know, you're not adding that much

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Speaker 2: of a sample on the daily, but you gave everybody

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Speaker 2: it seems the right direction in where this was going.

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Speaker 2: David Sall, congratulate you on that. Donald Trump said last night,

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Speaker 2: after listening to Nicki Haley's speech, I will call it

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Speaker 2: a concession speech, even though it didn't really.

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Speaker 3: Sound like one. He called her delusional. Is he right?

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Speaker 7: No?

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Speaker 5: I think she may be cagy staying in really, you know,

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Speaker 5: nobody myself, you no one should really be commenting. I

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Speaker 5: mean that's a personal decision. But she stays in not

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Speaker 5: to meet him with delegates. She that's you know, I mean,

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Speaker 5: there are too many close primaries and winner take all,

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Speaker 5: he said, Trumps just going to amass.

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Speaker 6: A huge lead.

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Speaker 5: Staying in means could I be the last person standing

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Speaker 5: if Trump were to be convicted? And knowing how independence

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Speaker 5: will turn on Trump if he is convicted. So it's

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Speaker 5: not that she thinks that there's a path delegate wise.

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Speaker 5: I mean she's going to lose all the delegates in Nevada.

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Speaker 5: She's not eligible, but you know, why not. She's got

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Speaker 5: the money. Why not give it a shot in South Carolina?

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Speaker 5: The problem with staying in South Carolina and losing badly.

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Speaker 5: Let's say she loses by another twelve points, eleven ten points,

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Speaker 5: what then?

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Speaker 6: What then?

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Speaker 5: Especially what then for twenty twenty eight.

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Speaker 3: So it's looking like South Carolina the last stand.

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Speaker 2: If she stays in, there's some or of the mind

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Speaker 2: that she might drop out before if it looks like

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Speaker 2: a potential embarrassment to your point, that might impact her

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Speaker 2: reputation going forward. But the last I can see, by

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Speaker 2: the way, at least in terms of major polls, was

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Speaker 2: Emerson January fifth, Trump fifty four, Hailey twenty five in

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Speaker 2: South Carolina. That was before run DeSantis bailed. And I

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Speaker 2: wonder if you've seen anything newer than that, if that's

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Speaker 2: the baseline four weeks out.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I haven't seen anything newer. I think the pre

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Speaker 5: polling is going to be the same. It's going to

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Speaker 5: be even if she jumps up five ten points, you know,

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Speaker 5: Trump will be ahead by maybe not thirty points, but

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Speaker 5: maybe by twenty points, and then it'll be whether or not,

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Speaker 5: you know, she gets close and loses by ten or twelve.

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Speaker 5: I think there are too many traditional voters, Republican voters

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Speaker 5: in South Carolina as they were in Iowa for her

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Speaker 5: to totally turn the tables, but it's definitely worth a shot.

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Speaker 5: And I think for Super Tuesday, Joe, you know, you know,

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Speaker 5: she came somewhat close. I mean, it wasn't really that

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Speaker 5: close in New Hampshire, and the spread was thirty percent

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Speaker 5: registered Republicans in New Hampshire and forty percent independence. If

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Speaker 5: she stayed through Super Tuesdays, she could win Massachusetts. Massachusetts,

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Speaker 5: it's only ten percent registered Republicans and sixty percent independent.

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Speaker 5: So and I don't know polling to support that, but

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Speaker 5: my guess is if the ratio was thirty forty and

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Speaker 5: she was within eleven, the ratio is ten Republicans sixty independent,

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Speaker 5: she probably But then what but then what?

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Speaker 6: Right? She went right in Massachusetts?

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Speaker 5: That doesn't really get her anything further in terms of

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Speaker 5: the total delegate.

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Speaker 2: I think it says a lot about the Republican contest

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Speaker 2: if it's coming down to battleground Massachusetts.

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Speaker 3: David This jumped off the page this morning.

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Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal crunching numbers from AP vote cast last night,

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Speaker 2: warning signs for Trump. Nineteen percent of Republicans who cast

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Speaker 2: ballots in New Hampshire said they would be so dissatisfied

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Speaker 2: with Trump as the nominee, they would not vote for him.

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Speaker 2: In November, we saw a similar number who participated in

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Speaker 2: the Iowa caucuses say the very same thing. We know

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Speaker 2: there was a lot of noise with independence in New Hampshire.

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Speaker 2: How much of a concern is this for the Trump

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Speaker 2: campaign or is this just fringe conversation at this point?

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Speaker 5: No, it's but I think in that analysis they should

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Speaker 5: have included that they weren't automatically voting for Biden, they

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Speaker 5: weren't comfortable voting for Trump, but they may vote third party.

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Speaker 5: So it's not a plus two difference minus one from

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Speaker 5: Trump and plus one for Biden. It might have been

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Speaker 5: minus one for Trump but plus one for Kennedy. So

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Speaker 5: I think, you know, and it's the same thing with

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Speaker 5: black voters who are less enthusiastic about Trump. It doesn't

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Speaker 5: mean that they're going to rotate to Trump. They may

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Speaker 5: rotate to corn Out, lester Stein or a third party candidate.

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Speaker 5: And that's why I think this is setting up for

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Speaker 5: a potential story for a strong independent candidate, whether it's

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Speaker 5: No Labels or right now it's RFK Jr. Who's got

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Speaker 5: the most for an independent. But with this kind of matchup,

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Speaker 5: the Trump Biden matchup. You know, a third party option

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Speaker 5: is more viable to me.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's sure seeming like it, David.

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Speaker 2: We've talked to folks at No Labels who've told us,

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Speaker 2: and you've heard this before. If by Super Tuesday, this

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Speaker 2: does seem clear that it's Trump versus Biden.

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Speaker 3: We're running a candidate.

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Speaker 2: They're not on the ballot in every state, though, and

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Speaker 2: that's partly why people say this is just a spoiler act,

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Speaker 2: because they don't have a real chance of winning.

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Speaker 5: What do you think, Yeah, I think that's true. I

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Speaker 5: mean Ross Perot was on every ballot. I mean even

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Speaker 5: the Libertarian Joe Jorgans and Last Ramos on every ballot.

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Speaker 5: So ballot access is important, and every state has their

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Speaker 5: own rules and rags. Look at Nevada, that's a for

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Speaker 5: the primary. I mean you've got a primary and but

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Speaker 5: no delegates to a lot of the primary and only

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Speaker 5: the caucuses, and Nikki Haley's not eligible, and so every

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Speaker 5: state has their own rules, and every party within every state,

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Speaker 5: you know, acts accordingly. But yeah, I mean I think

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Speaker 5: those are those are those are issues that we're going

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Speaker 5: to continue to track going forward.

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Speaker 3: Big win last night for Joe Biden.

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Speaker 2: I'm sorry, it's just to think of a president of

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Speaker 2: the United States at this stage of the game in

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Speaker 2: a writing campaign fifty five percent. Dean Phillips, he said,

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Speaker 2: look at me, I could get twenty percent, and he

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Speaker 2: almost did. Nineteen point five. Is the Dean Phillips act over?

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Speaker 2: Did he prove a point? What do we get on

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Speaker 2: the dem side?

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Speaker 5: Well, I mean, you know, you've got the same problem

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Speaker 5: on the DEM side. I mean, why would a Democrat

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Speaker 5: who's supporting Joe Biden go in and embarrass Joe Biden

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Speaker 5: by going in and voting for Dean Phillips. So again,

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Speaker 5: this is the reason why Democrat, Republicans, and mostly independents

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Speaker 5: they don't want this matchup. And it's it's you know,

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Speaker 5: from afar. It's very interesting to observe because it's almost

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Speaker 5: like the political parties set up their primaries and caucuses

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Speaker 5: deliberately to benefit the people who are eventually going to win.

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Speaker 5: And you know, I know that the people oken, but look,

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Speaker 5: you know, I mean the public is going to be

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Speaker 5: forced to pick a candidate. If they only pick one

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Speaker 5: of two a candidate that's the less than two evils,

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Speaker 5: and that doesn't speak well for the system.

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Speaker 2: And so therefore what we have in common now on

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Speaker 2: both sides is this idea that you can have a

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Speaker 2: campaign hang in there just barely enough to be available

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Speaker 2: in case the front runner becomes incapacitated, whether it's Dean

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Speaker 2: Phillips or I guess that's not the most respectful way

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Speaker 2: to describe Nikki Haley's campaign right now. But if she

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Speaker 2: just decides to nibble along and get delegates to stay

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Speaker 2: in the game in case somebody gets convicted of something,

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Speaker 2: for instance, that really is the same campaign strategy that

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Speaker 2: Dean Phillips is running.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, exactly, you know, and you know it might be

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Speaker 5: the why strategy. You know, she's gone, you know, in

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Speaker 5: the states that allocate proportionally, she is going to pick

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Speaker 5: off delegates. But if there's a Kumbaya moment or not

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Speaker 5: in Milwaukee at the Republican Convention, for example, who are

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Speaker 5: they going to pick Nicky Haley? I mean Nicki Haley.

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Speaker 5: Even in New Hampshire last night, and it was similar

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Speaker 5: to the polling, she was losing by fifty points among

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Speaker 5: registered Republicans in New Hampshire fifty five zero, you know,

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Speaker 5: and were it not for Governor Sanunu's ground operation identifying

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Speaker 5: Trump hating independence and increasing that proportion. So how do

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Speaker 5: you nominate Nicky Haley when she's not you know, she's

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Speaker 5: not liked by such a wide march, you know, And

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Speaker 5: so you may have someone drafted on the Democrats side,

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Speaker 5: but also on the Republican side, if you know, if

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Speaker 5: things don't work out legally for former President Trump.

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Speaker 2: God knows, we have this fantasy of a contested convention

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Speaker 2: every four years and it never happens. But boy, it

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Speaker 2: seems like something could be real. David's great to see you,

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Speaker 2: Thanks for coming along. David Paley, Loogo's Suffolk University Political

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Speaker 2: Research Center director, with the latest numbers here on the trail.

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Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. We're back in the Capitol.

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Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enroud

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Speaker 1: Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

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Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Another incredible experience here covering Iowa and New Hampshire back

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Speaker 2: to back by the way, the final in New Hampshire

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump fifty four, Nikki Haley forty three. Remembering the

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Speaker 2: poll that we walked into this from Suffolk University, it

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Speaker 2: said sixty percent for Donald Trump. But of course this

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Speaker 2: had a lot more to do with the trajectory of

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Speaker 2: these two candidates, not necessarily predicting the spread. And that's

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Speaker 2: where we start our conversation with somebody who not only

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Speaker 2: knows polls, but New Hampshire as well as anyone here.

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Speaker 2: Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center,

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Speaker 2: is back with us. He's been a reliable voice as

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Speaker 2: always through this process. And Andrew, it's great to see

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Speaker 2: you this day after. I wonder your thoughts because we

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Speaker 2: were speculating, we were wondering what was going to happen.

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Speaker 2: Twenty four hours before the contest. You were with us

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Speaker 2: here on Bloomberg. Did New Hampshire just pick the Republican nominee?

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Speaker 7: I think so unless something dramatic happens now in the convention,

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Speaker 7: either legal or medical, or knows what else it would be,

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Speaker 7: but it has to be incredibly dramatic for Trump not.

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Speaker 6: To get the nomination.

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Speaker 7: I think that maybe the only outside chance that Haley has,

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Speaker 7: and I think maybe this is why she's continuing to

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Speaker 7: go is she the Bible candidate and can build up

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Speaker 7: a certain number of delegates. She may be able to

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Speaker 7: be in a position should something happen to be seen

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Speaker 7: as the next the next most logical Republican to be

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Speaker 7: the nominee for November. But it would really require on

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Speaker 7: something outside of control of the campaign.

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Speaker 3: Isn't that something? So there's almost no point in advertising.

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Speaker 3: Just wait around and see what happens.

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Speaker 2: I guess some of the data that we pulled out

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Speaker 2: of the voting last night, Andrew, among independent voters, I'd

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Speaker 2: like to hear from you on this, because they of

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Speaker 2: course characterize New Hampshire in a very special way.

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Speaker 3: Among independent voters, sixty six percent said they would not

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Speaker 3: vote for Donald Trump in November if he was the nominee.

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Speaker 3: What does that mean to you as you look forward

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Speaker 3: to a general that could already underway.

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Speaker 7: Well, I would say, first off, we have to discount

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Speaker 7: there may be ten percent or so of those independents

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Speaker 7: who voted in the primary yesterday, they're really Democrats. They

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Speaker 7: vote actively Democratic. Typically they're not going to vote for Trump.

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Speaker 6: Regardless.

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Speaker 7: But what I've seen over the history here in New Hampshire,

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Speaker 7: but also in the history of political science, going back

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Speaker 7: to research published in the nineteen sixties, is that the

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Speaker 7: partisanship is such a strong driver of what goes on.

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Speaker 7: And my sense is that those Republicans who say they're

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Speaker 7: never going to vote for Trump, they'll rationalize why Trump

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Speaker 7: is better than Biden when it comes around to November.

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Speaker 7: It's like, yeah, we know he's a skunk, but our

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Speaker 7: sunk skunk is better than your party's skunk. So you'll

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Speaker 7: see a lot of that. We heard that in twenty sixteen,

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Speaker 7: we heard that in twenty twenty as well from Republicans.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, I'll tell you what.

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Speaker 2: There are a lot of questions about how Nikki Haley

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Speaker 2: is going to spend the next four weeks. How can

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Speaker 2: she learn from what happened in New Hampshire to potentially

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Speaker 2: improve her chances here, because the makeup in New Hampshire

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Speaker 2: is like a different universe from what she's going into

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Speaker 2: in South Carolina.

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Speaker 7: I don't know if there is that much to learn

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Speaker 7: from New Hampshire, because frankly, I think she ran an

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Speaker 7: excellent race here. She did about as good as you

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Speaker 7: could expect anybody to do. Where you've got Donald Trump

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Speaker 7: getting a significant majority of those registered Republican voters. She

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Speaker 7: played the only hand that she had, but the cards

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Speaker 7: were relatively weak, and she did an excellent job with

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Speaker 7: the week hand. She's going into South Carolina where her

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Speaker 7: cards are even weaker, not because she's not popular in

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Speaker 7: the state and she's better known, but South Carolina's electorate

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Speaker 7: they elected Donald Trump significantly in twenty and sixteen and

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Speaker 7: in twenty twenty, and I don't think they'll see any

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Speaker 7: reason why they should throw him overboard, even if it

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Speaker 7: is for a governor that they know and like.

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Speaker 2: Your poll Andrews Smith of a little less than two

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Speaker 2: weeks ago had them within single digits. That changed pretty

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Speaker 2: quickly as candidates began dropping and as they moved through Iowa.

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Speaker 2: When are we going to start seeing indications of how

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Speaker 2: the Ron de Santis votes were distributed and how did

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Speaker 2: that change so quickly in a week's time to go

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Speaker 2: from single digits to what we got last night.

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Speaker 7: Well, I think it's important to remember that Donald Trump

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Speaker 7: had about forty to forty two percent of the electorate

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Speaker 7: in New Hampshire locked up a year ago, if not

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Speaker 7: eight years ago. So his voters were there, and then

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Speaker 7: you had a lot of people that were looking at

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Speaker 7: other ones. You had the anti trumpers with Chris Christie.

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Speaker 7: You had Nikki Haley trying to play a middle road.

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Speaker 7: You had the Trump light candidates with Rameshwamy and DeSantis.

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Speaker 7: But those in our polling when Christie, if you asked

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Speaker 7: Christie voters who their second choice was, it was Haley,

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Speaker 7: and when he dropped out, they moved over to her.

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Speaker 7: That's why she got this boot, this bump. But when

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Speaker 7: first Ramaswami and then Desantras dropped out, their second choice

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Speaker 7: was always Trump, so they drifted over to Trump. It

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Speaker 7: was not a question in this election of Trump versus

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Speaker 7: everybody else or the anti Trump. It was Trump, the

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Speaker 7: Trump Light and the anti Trumps, and the anti Trump

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Speaker 7: went for instead of Trump Light, they went for full

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Speaker 7: strength Trump.

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Speaker 3: How about that?

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Speaker 2: Sounds like that thirty point spread that I mentioned in

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Speaker 2: the Emerson Paul South Carolina might still be the case.

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Speaker 2: How about no labels. They've already come to New Hampshire

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Speaker 2: a few times. I've seen Joe Manchin up there holding

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Speaker 2: events on a potential third party run. There's something New

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Speaker 2: Hampshirey about that, Andrew, if we get to Super Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: to you take that group at its word that they

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Speaker 2: will run a candidate, and how could it possibly work

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Speaker 2: when they aren't going to be likely on the ballot everywhere?

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Speaker 7: Well, I think any third party is going to be

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Speaker 7: a spoiler, and basically you're going to have to start

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Speaker 7: to look at who they're drawing votes from. And it's

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Speaker 7: really way too early to start to even think about

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Speaker 7: those things. Voters aren't paying that much attention frankly too

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Speaker 7: the general election in the fall. Yet they are in

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Speaker 7: the early states like New Hampshire, Iowa and now coming

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Speaker 7: up South Carolina. But a third party is going to

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Speaker 7: have a very, very difficult challenge. As I mentioned, the

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Speaker 7: voters in the United States can rationalize why their party

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Speaker 7: is as bad as the candidate is is better than

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Speaker 7: the other party's candidate. And if you think back to

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Speaker 7: third party candidates in recent memory, with Ross Perrot, he

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Speaker 7: got nineteen percent in nineteen ninety two with two kind

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Speaker 7: of amazing our candidates, but he didn't get a single

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Speaker 7: electoral vote. He was a spoiler at best, not a

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Speaker 7: really credible candidate for winning.

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Speaker 2: The election, not that we don't already have potential spoilers

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Speaker 2: out there, right, RFK Junior.

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Speaker 3: We've got third party candidates.

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Speaker 2: That I could rattle off here that don't necessarily carry

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Speaker 2: the no Labels brand.

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Speaker 3: What's the difference?

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Speaker 6: Not much?

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Speaker 7: Actually, I think RFK Junior is probably in a better

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Speaker 7: position than the no Labels brand. They're not a known commodity,

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Speaker 7: they're not a party in the traditional sense of a party,

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Speaker 7: their movement so to speak, at best. But they're going

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Speaker 7: to need somebody who's a very charismatic person, very popular,

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Speaker 7: very well known, who's going to be able to lead

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Speaker 7: the charge, because I don't think people are going to

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Speaker 7: go and vote for a relatively unknown candidate that they

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Speaker 7: don't know how they're going to govern, who will have

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Speaker 7: no governing party in Washington, then looking at who their

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Speaker 7: own candidate is and saying, you know what, I'll just

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Speaker 7: pick with the try and prove even if I don't

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Speaker 7: really like it.

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Speaker 2: So add up RFK Junior, Cornell West and the rest.

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Speaker 2: Is there already enough potential interruption for Joe Biden worry

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Speaker 2: about it?

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Speaker 3: Sounds like yes, yeah, I.

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Speaker 6: Think there is. I think that both candidates have to

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Speaker 6: worry about this.

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Speaker 7: It's just really too early for us to say who

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Speaker 7: it's going to bite them bite the hardest. You can

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Speaker 7: make an argument both ways, but I think it's too

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Speaker 7: early because frankly, again, voters aren't paying attention much to this.

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Speaker 7: Voters will pay attend to the elections when they have to,

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Speaker 7: and that's usually just before the election. The money issue

437
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Speaker 7: is important for the candidates and the campaigns. How do

438
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:10,240
Speaker 7: you keep this thing rolling if your candidate, if your

439
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 7: voter or your candidates aren't that popular. How do you

440
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:16,399
Speaker 7: keep voters engaged when they're looking at their candidates and

441
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,640
Speaker 7: neither party really is in love with their party's candidate.

442
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 7: How do you keep them focused? And that's a hard

443
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 7: thing to do.

444
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 2: Strikes me Andrew that if Donald Trump wanted to give

445
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:31,399
Speaker 2: this the appearance of shutting down the Republican primary, you

446
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,639
Speaker 2: just go ahead and announce a vice presidential pick right now.

447
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,879
Speaker 2: Remember when Ted Cruz tried to pull that off. Just

448
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,680
Speaker 2: form your own ticket before you even get to a convention.

449
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 2: I don't know if you see that happening, it feels

450
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:48,159
Speaker 2: like something very very trumpy thing to do. Who's on

451
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:51,480
Speaker 2: the top of that short list? Will geography matter this time?

452
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 2: Are the normal rules in place or does Trump seem

453
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:56,879
Speaker 2: to be the exception to that as well.

454
00:23:57,280 --> 00:24:00,439
Speaker 7: I think Trump's not likely to pay attention to theditional

455
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,160
Speaker 7: things like choosing somebody from the other wing of your party,

456
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 7: or choosing somebody for their ability to draw votes in

457
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:11,679
Speaker 7: a battleground state or a large battleground state. I frankly

458
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 7: think he's going to get a loyalist, somebody who's going

459
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:15,879
Speaker 7: to parrot the message that he has, who's not going

460
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:19,680
Speaker 7: to stray or say something that he might disagree with.

461
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:21,640
Speaker 7: And he's going to want somebody who's going to back

462
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 7: him up in those legal troubles that he's got. So

463
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:26,880
Speaker 7: I think he's going to want somebody who's got an

464
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 7: oath of loyalty to him, and I don't think that

465
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:31,199
Speaker 7: that's going to turn off the Trump voters.

466
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:33,720
Speaker 6: In fact, I think his supporters, if.

467
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 7: Anything, want to see somebody like that rather than, you know,

468
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:38,960
Speaker 7: somebody from another wing of the party.

469
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 2: So you're talking at least to Phonic a couple of

470
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 2: other names around there.

471
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 3: Carrie Lake might ring true to you. What do you think, Andrew.

472
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:50,239
Speaker 7: I think that both of those people could be on

473
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 7: his short list, and they'll probably have to swear on

474
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:54,440
Speaker 7: a stack of bibles that they're going to they'll pardon

475
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:58,360
Speaker 7: him if if need be. But I think there's it's

476
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:00,359
Speaker 7: going to be tough for them to find some who

477
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 7: has some national credibility, who's with Trump, who's not going

478
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 7: to stray away from Trump, and who's not going to

479
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 7: look like somebody who's been effectively politically neutered if they

480
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 7: join the campaign.

481
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 2: So then if it's the Trump campaign and no rules apply,

482
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 2: that choice that's so important for presidential candidates probably won't

483
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:25,159
Speaker 2: move the needle in the polls. Right, this is the

484
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:28,760
Speaker 2: most stable looking race that we've ever seen when it

485
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:29,920
Speaker 2: comes to Trump's base.

486
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 7: I think so, and they actually look at the political

487
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 7: science on it. The vice presidential pick generally doesn't make

488
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 7: much difference at all. John Dyan s Gardner famously said

489
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 7: it's not worth being not worth a warm bucket of

490
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 7: as he said, spit, but he meant something else. It's

491
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 7: not something that really the voters are waiting for. It's

492
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 7: kind of a news story a bit. It's something to

493
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 7: talk about during the convention when it's traditionally announced, but

494
00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:00,919
Speaker 7: it's just not that big of a deal. But in

495
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 7: this case, we have two very old candidates for whom

496
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:06,679
Speaker 7: the choice of vice president becomes looms a little bit

497
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 7: larger than might be the case of the president is

498
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:12,440
Speaker 7: fifty years old, and that's going to be I think

499
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,560
Speaker 7: the discussion is how young, how vigorous, and how this

500
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:19,159
Speaker 7: person would look as potentially a president within before the

501
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:22,280
Speaker 7: end of the current president's term.

502
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 2: I've got less than a minute, Andrew Smith. Some suggested

503
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:28,760
Speaker 2: while I was in Manchester that the primary was broken.

504
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 2: Is it going to be like the good old days

505
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:31,920
Speaker 2: four years from now?

506
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 6: There were many things that happened.

507
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 7: If you walked on the streets of Manchester this weekend,

508
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 7: it looked like a ghost town compared to past primariy.

509
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 7: The Democratic Party took the big step of essentially bypassing

510
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 7: New Hampshire for the first time. They wanted to do

511
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:49,919
Speaker 7: it in decades, but they finally took the step. The

512
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 7: Republican primaris it wasn't that interesting because of an incumbent.

513
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 7: Perhaps the kind of the lull that we saw this

514
00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 7: year was due to the candidates in particular situations.

515
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:01,399
Speaker 6: People.

516
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:03,880
Speaker 2: I want to see the carnival come back to town.

517
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,159
Speaker 2: Andrew Smith. It's great to see you again. From the

518
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 2: University of New Hampshire. This is Bloomberg.

519
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

520
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

521
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,399
Speaker 1: and then royd Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen

522
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

523
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:25,880
Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

524
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:29,400
Speaker 2: Joe Biden and Donald Trump have something in common. They're

525
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,840
Speaker 2: both acting like the general election is now underway. They

526
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 2: say it began last night if you really look at

527
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:39,640
Speaker 2: the statements they both issued. Listen to Donald Trump's speech, certainly,

528
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 2: and that's why Joe Biden's day today is important, not

529
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 2: with an eye on South Carolina, but Michigan, where today

530
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:52,400
Speaker 2: he's expected that the UAW will endorse his presidential bid,

531
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 2: remembering Joe Biden became the first president to walk a

532
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:59,480
Speaker 2: picket line and his support of the UAW strike against

533
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 2: the Big Three. We assemble our panel for their take

534
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:05,360
Speaker 2: on what happened last night and what may already be happening,

535
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 2: even as Nicki Haley vows to stay on in this race.

536
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:15,359
Speaker 2: Lester Munson is with US Principle at BGR Group Republican Strategists,

537
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:19,400
Speaker 2: along with Alvin Jordan Rock Solutions, Vice President Democratic analyst.

538
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:21,399
Speaker 2: It's great to have both of you with us here.

539
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:25,560
Speaker 2: Joe Biden is acting like the general is underway, Alvin,

540
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 2: with this endorsement from the UAW which Donald Trump is

541
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 2: also seeking, help him along the way in the months ahead.

542
00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 8: Absolutely, I think regardless of what happens with Donald Trump

543
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 8: and Nicki Haley for President Biden, he for sure has

544
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,280
Speaker 8: to get on the campaign trail because it has started

545
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 8: in effect for him, and the first thing from a

546
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 8: priority standpoint that he has to wrap up his support

547
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 8: and if he can't secure this, it would for sure

548
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:04,200
Speaker 8: put a wrinkle in his plans for how he would

549
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 8: like to roll out his campaign officially. So he is,

550
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 8: as you could imagine, they're, you know, trying to cash

551
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 8: in on some of that goodwill as you mentioned that

552
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 8: as presidential walk to Pitty Vine to actually come up

553
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:23,280
Speaker 8: with some official support, and I think he definitely needs

554
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 8: it well.

555
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 3: So I guess that move paid off.

556
00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 2: It was considered controversial at the time here, Lester, but

557
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 2: we also spoke while that was going on, while the

558
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 2: strike was underway, by the fact that rank and file

559
00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 2: union workers auto workers in Michigan voted for Donald Trump

560
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty. What will this do to change their vote?

561
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 2: Do they follow Sean Fain in the leadership here?

562
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 9: Well, that remains to be seen. I suspect the rank

563
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 9: and file is not going to follow their leadership on

564
00:29:55,360 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 9: this issue. This is part of the Trump populist appeal, right,

565
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 9: He's reaching out to the kind of the regular Joe

566
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 9: past the elites in this case the union leadership, or

567
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 9: that's certainly what he's going to try to be doing

568
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 9: this And this is a weak spot in the Biden coalition.

569
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 9: So the fact that the president President Biden is acting

570
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 9: like this is a general I think he has to

571
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 9: be doing that. It is very likely he's going to

572
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 9: be facing Donald Trump. And this is a demographic that

573
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:30,520
Speaker 9: Trump is going to pursue aggressively and relentlessly. And so

574
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 9: this is this is You're absolutely right, Joe, this is

575
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 9: the first step for the president in the general election.

576
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 2: How about that? I'm drawn to the headline on the

577
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 2: front of the Union Leader, the New Hampshire Union Leader,

578
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 2: which just days earlier endorsed Nicky Haley. Alvin, you saw

579
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 2: the results last night, another big win for Donald Trump.

580
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:54,360
Speaker 2: The headline voters say they were motivated by Trump one

581
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:58,440
Speaker 2: way or another, suggesting that you had passion on behalf

582
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 2: of his supporters and passionate protest votes by those, in

583
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:07,040
Speaker 2: many cases independents who voted for Nicki Haley. Is that

584
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 2: a strategy going forward? If you're the underdog and you're

585
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 2: a protest vote as opposed to something people are voting for,

586
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 2: can you sustain a campaign in that environment?

587
00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:22,719
Speaker 8: No, is the short answer. And unfortunately, you know, in

588
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 8: one of the opinion pieces I believe in The Times

589
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 8: this morning, they used the phrasing of a lovely illusion,

590
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 8: and I think that is so accurate in kind of

591
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 8: where and how we've arrived today. I was in Iowa

592
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 8: and actually got to hear some of what you know,

593
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:45,280
Speaker 8: Nicki Haley was saying, and I looked around the room

594
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 8: to take a quick inventory, and it very much seemed

595
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 8: like she had the people on her side as it were,

596
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 8: and then, as we all know, it didn't go in

597
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 8: her favorite to the to the point of third place.

598
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 8: And so I just think that we're seeing to fruition

599
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:02,760
Speaker 8: a lot of what is and sounds great. I mean,

600
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:06,960
Speaker 8: even in the midst of you know, allegations and actual

601
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 8: you know, court hearings where we see the former president

602
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 8: out front and literally dealing with all of this, and

603
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 8: people still show up by and large to support him.

604
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 8: And so again I think from a president, you know

605
00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 8: Biden's point of view, you have to activate and believe

606
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 8: that this is happening, and you can't really allow you know,

607
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:31,760
Speaker 8: whether Nikki Haley will stick around or kind of where

608
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 8: she's arrived personally to slow down the momentum that they'll

609
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 8: need to garner support, because if they do, I think

610
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 8: what we'll look around and see similar to twenty sixteen

611
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 8: in a different way, but definitely you know where we

612
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 8: are now, which is people show up support vote for

613
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:52,959
Speaker 8: the former president pretty pretty consistently.

614
00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you, the conventional wisdom of this day

615
00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 2: after the primary is that this is over, that Nikki

616
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 2: Haley will eventually have to drop out of the race here.

617
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 2: But she's got a lot of money, Lester, She's sinking

618
00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 2: four million dollars into ads in South Carolina. At what

619
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 2: point will she need to win something to keep this rolling?

620
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 9: Well, pretty soon, she's got a plausible case to make right.

621
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 9: South Carolina's her home state. She knows it. She's going

622
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 9: to have to figure out a way to overcome this

623
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 9: thirty point apparent thirty point gap with Trump. Can she

624
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 9: appeal to Republican women voters? Can she appeal to those

625
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 9: folks who are skeptical of Trump? Does he make some

626
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 9: more mistakes on the stump? Does he have a health issue?

627
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 9: Her being in the game might change it a little bit.

628
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 9: This is a crazy year. It's hard to I think

629
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:47,560
Speaker 9: it's a mistake to predict too much. Certainly Trump is

630
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 9: in the best position here, but we've also got a

631
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 9: look to see. The longer this goes on, the less

632
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 9: likely it is that Trump is going to be able

633
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 9: to prevail in the general. He's going to have to

634
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 9: make a pivot to appeal to a broader range of voters.

635
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 9: He's got to try to appeal to independence. He's got

636
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:10,120
Speaker 9: to try to appeal to Republicans who are skeptical of him.

637
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 9: If he doesn't do that soon, it's going to become

638
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:15,520
Speaker 9: harder and harder and harder to do as this campaign

639
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 9: goes onward.

640
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:21,280
Speaker 2: Talk to us about independence, Alvin. Among those who voted

641
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:24,840
Speaker 2: in New Hampshire, a state defined by its independent or

642
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 2: as they say, undeclared voters, sixty six percent said they

643
00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:31,239
Speaker 2: would not vote for Donald Trump in November if he

644
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 2: was the nominee. That's advantage Biden, you.

645
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 8: Would, you would like to think, and I think for

646
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:40,239
Speaker 8: the you know, for the for the president, like that

647
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 8: is an area where you have to you know, go

648
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:46,000
Speaker 8: and try to capture as much that as soon as

649
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:49,719
Speaker 8: you possibly can. I think, you know, again to the

650
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:54,759
Speaker 8: points that we've we've made just previously, how much of

651
00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 8: that is actually real. I was, you know, taking in

652
00:34:57,760 --> 00:34:59,840
Speaker 8: a quick look at a couple of the town halls

653
00:34:59,880 --> 00:35:05,200
Speaker 8: that that we're broadcast yesterday after the polls had closed,

654
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:08,160
Speaker 8: and even in the room, you could tell, as people

655
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:11,360
Speaker 8: were kind of on the fence from an independent standpoint

656
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 8: of not wanting to declare a vote for President Trump,

657
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:18,399
Speaker 8: that it still seemed that when it came down to it,

658
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:21,239
Speaker 8: they would, you know, essentially tow the party line or

659
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 8: even from an independent perspective kind of look that way.

660
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:27,240
Speaker 8: And I just don't think that you can necessarily trust

661
00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 8: that I will vote against President Trump will actually hold true.

662
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:33,920
Speaker 8: And if you're President Biden, I think you have to immediately,

663
00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 8: you know, start trying to appeal and pull in some

664
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 8: of those voters who are seemingly on the fence Otherwise,

665
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:41,160
Speaker 8: I think we end up as we have in the

666
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:46,359
Speaker 8: past and are looking at another Trump administration. If that's

667
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:50,960
Speaker 8: a segment of people that the current administration can't pull

668
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:52,360
Speaker 8: to their side.

669
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:55,760
Speaker 2: We're about to get crushed with a lot of ads.

670
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:58,239
Speaker 2: And having just survived Iowa in New Hampshire, they are

671
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 2: still rattling around in my head. We've got less than

672
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 2: a minute here for this part of our conversation, Lester.

673
00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:08,600
Speaker 2: Nicky Haley's got twenty twenty eight to think about a

674
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 2: much longer road ahead than Donald Trump.

675
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 3: Needs to worry about.

676
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:16,719
Speaker 2: A massive embarrassment in South Carolina, where she's polling now

677
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 2: thirty points behind Donald Trump, could impact her chances down

678
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 2: the road. Is that something she needs to avoid?

679
00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 9: You know who knows? I think all the old rules

680
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:31,800
Speaker 9: are out the window. Is Desanti's applausible candidate in twenty

681
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:35,759
Speaker 9: eight is Tim Scott. They've you know, they've taken some

682
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:38,200
Speaker 9: hits and gotten some extra baggage here as they got

683
00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:40,239
Speaker 9: out of the race. I don't know that there's a

684
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:42,839
Speaker 9: real good formula here for Nicky Haley. I think I

685
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:45,239
Speaker 9: like the fact that she's I confess I'm a little

686
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 9: partial to her. I like the fact that she's fighting.

687
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:49,799
Speaker 9: I think that's going to resonate well for her. She

688
00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:51,359
Speaker 9: is going to have to figure out if she does

689
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 9: this again in four years, assuming she doesn't get it now,

690
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:57,120
Speaker 9: how to appeal to those Trump voters, and you know,

691
00:36:57,280 --> 00:36:59,840
Speaker 9: being a little pugilistic might help her do that.

692
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:04,759
Speaker 2: Great analysis from our panel. It's amazing what happens when

693
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:07,719
Speaker 2: you actually get some votes instead of just polling and

694
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:11,880
Speaker 2: forecast to talk about. Democratic analyst Alvin Jordan, Rock Solutions,

695
00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:15,840
Speaker 2: Republican strategist Leicster months in BGR Government affairs.

696
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 3: Many thanks for the insights today