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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

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Speaker 2: Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, CarPlay

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Speaker 2: and then Droun Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen

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Speaker 2: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

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Speaker 2: live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: We also have to bring you an important conversation live

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Speaker 3: from Capitol Hill. Joining us now on both Bloomberg Television

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Speaker 3: and radio is Democratic Congressman Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, who

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Speaker 3: sits on the House Intelligence Committee and also just returned

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Speaker 3: from a visit to Ukraine where she met with President

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Speaker 3: Vladimir's Eelinsky. Congresswoman, thank you so much for being with

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Speaker 3: us today as we question now the fate of this

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Speaker 3: supplemental package that would provide sixty billion dollars in ad

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Speaker 3: to Ukraine in the House, can you tell us first

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Speaker 3: what you saw and heard what happens if Ukraine does

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Speaker 3: not get this aid.

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Speaker 4: The provision of this aid through this national security this

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Speaker 4: national security supplemental is of the utmost importance. It is

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Speaker 4: dire importance to our national security. And on the ground

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Speaker 4: when we were in Kiev, what we kept hearing from

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Speaker 4: Ukrainian military officials, from President Zelenski himself, but importantly also

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Speaker 4: from US officials at the US embassy. Is how incredibly

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Speaker 4: vital this aid is to Ukraine's ability to defend itself,

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Speaker 4: to defeat Putin, to regain more of its territory, to

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Speaker 4: protect its citizens, and ultimately to defeat Russian aggression and

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Speaker 4: Vladimir Putin's army.

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Speaker 5: Well, reality seems to be biting pretty hard here, a congresswoman.

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Speaker 5: I appreciate the message that you're delivering today, but your

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Speaker 5: speaker says, this is doa that this funding will not

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Speaker 5: even get a vote in the House of Representatives, and

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Speaker 5: the calendar looks pretty challenging right now. Even if this

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Speaker 5: money does get past, it's going to take a long time.

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Speaker 5: Do we need to be honest with ourselves or honest

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Speaker 5: with Ukraine about what's happening in your House of Representatives?

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Speaker 4: The reality is that one person, the Speaker of the House,

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Speaker 4: has the ability to bring this bill for a vote.

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Speaker 4: If he were to bring the bill for a vote today,

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Speaker 4: it would pass with.

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Speaker 6: An overwhelming majority.

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Speaker 4: This bill would deliver vital support to our Ukrainian allies.

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Speaker 4: It would deliver vital support to our Israeli allies. This

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Speaker 4: bill would deliver vital humanitarian aid to stabilize a region

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Speaker 4: that is currently destabilized. And this bill would support our

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Speaker 4: partners and our.

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Speaker 6: Allies in Taiwan.

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Speaker 4: Because make no mistake, right now, China is watching, Iran

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Speaker 4: is watching, and Vladimir Putin is watching as the world

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Speaker 4: is questioning, will the United States continue you to be

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Speaker 4: a global leader for democracy, in support of freedom and

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Speaker 4: American values? Will the United States actually take steps and

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Speaker 4: work in its own our own best national security interests

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Speaker 4: and pass this bill?

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Speaker 6: And that decision comes down to one man.

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Speaker 4: Is he going to choose the national security priorities of

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Speaker 4: the United States?

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Speaker 6: Bring this bill forward.

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Speaker 4: I don't even care if the Speaker votes for it himself.

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Speaker 4: He just needs to bring the bill because the reality

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Speaker 4: is failure to bring this bill is an abdication of

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Speaker 4: our responsibility.

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Speaker 6: It is an.

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Speaker 4: Absolute capitulation to Vladimir Putin, and it endangers our country.

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Speaker 6: So there's no other option but starts to bring it.

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Speaker 3: But Congresswoman, theoretically there is another legislative option that could

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Speaker 3: go around the speaker, a discharged petition. Are you effectively

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Speaker 3: telling us today that you don't think that stands a

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Speaker 3: real chance of working.

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Speaker 6: Oh.

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Speaker 4: I think all options are on the table. But I

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Speaker 4: think it's tragically sad that we are trying to come

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Speaker 4: up with procedural avenues around.

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Speaker 6: The most simple and straightforward manner. We're the House of Representatives.

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Speaker 6: We're supposed to take votes up or down.

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Speaker 4: This bill represents a major priority for our security, and

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Speaker 4: so yes, I am happy to look at all of

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Speaker 4: the other contingencies we could put in place if we

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Speaker 4: are dealing with the reality that the Speaker of the

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Speaker 4: House doesn't want to protect our country and our national

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Speaker 4: security interests. But the fact that we're actually having to

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Speaker 4: plan for these sorts of contingencies is, in my mind tragic.

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Speaker 4: I'll continue working with my colleagues to make those plans

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Speaker 4: because we need this bill to pass. But the bottom

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Speaker 4: line is it could pass today if only the Speaker

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Speaker 4: would bring it.

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Speaker 7: Well, you wonder what's going on here.

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Speaker 5: Some have suggested it's a bit of gas lighting going

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Speaker 5: on at the hand of Donald Trump, And as long

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Speaker 5: as the speaker's on the phone with mar Alango, this

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Speaker 5: is never going to happen.

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Speaker 4: Congresswoman, you know what, I that's one step even further.

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Speaker 4: The idea that a former president and you know now

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Speaker 4: candidate for president, would want to stand in the way

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Speaker 4: of the United States Congress protecting our own national security interests.

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Speaker 4: The United States Congress House of Representatives passing a bill

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Speaker 4: that passed with the support of seventy senators, Democrats and Republicans.

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Speaker 4: It is absolutely just ridiculous that Donald Trump would be

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Speaker 4: on the phone with the Speaker and encouraging him to

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Speaker 4: do anything other than bringing a bill forward that protects

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Speaker 4: our interests, that protects our values, and that ensures our

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Speaker 4: national security interests are prioritized.

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Speaker 3: And you mentioned that you think Vladimir Putin, the president

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Speaker 3: of Russia, is watching this very closely. I do have

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Speaker 3: a question pertaining to Russia for you, Congresswoman, given your

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Speaker 3: seat on the Intel Committee. The chair of that committee,

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Speaker 3: Mike Turner, posted put out a statement today saying he

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Speaker 3: was asking the president to declassify all information related to

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Speaker 3: a serious national security threat. Congresswoman, we've seen reporting that

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Speaker 3: this is about Russia.

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Speaker 6: Can you confirm that.

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Speaker 4: I respect you answer for asking that question, but as

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Speaker 4: a former intelligence officer and current member of the Intelligence Committee,

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Speaker 4: I'm going to just defer to the statement that the

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Speaker 4: Chairman has made and not provide any additional comment on that.

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Speaker 3: Well, Congressman, could you at least tell us if this

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Speaker 3: should concern us, Should we be eminently worried about a

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Speaker 3: threat here wherever it's coming from.

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Speaker 4: I think we should always be concerned of the threats

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Speaker 4: that are targeting the United States. There will always be

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Speaker 4: foes the world round. We know them economically and militarily, China, Iran,

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Speaker 4: North Korea, Russia, and that is why we must pass

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Speaker 4: this national security supplement, And particularly at a time when

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Speaker 4: we do see a statement coming out from the Chairman

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Speaker 4: of the Intelligence Committee noting that there are specific threats

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Speaker 4: at this time that there have been specific briefings about.

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Speaker 6: No, there's no time like the present for us.

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Speaker 4: To actually focus on our national security and push this

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Speaker 4: bill forward.

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Speaker 8: I realized you don't want to talk about this, Congresswoman.

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Speaker 5: As a former CIA officer, I wonder if you think

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Speaker 5: this is irresponsible for the Chairman to put something out

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Speaker 5: like that without telling people what the heck it means.

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Speaker 4: So it's not an issue of want, It's an issue

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Speaker 4: of what I legally can do, and so I can't

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Speaker 4: disclose any information related to what I've been briefed on

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Speaker 4: and I am aware that the all statements, there's been significant,

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Speaker 4: you know, discussion within the intelligence community about what can

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Speaker 4: be made public or not. And so I'll defer to

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Speaker 4: the Chairman for what regarding what he put out, but

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Speaker 4: I you know, in legally and with my responsibility to

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Speaker 4: protect classified information, we'll not comment beyond what it.

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Speaker 6: Is that he put out in his very brief statement.

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Speaker 3: All right, Congressman will certainly we respect that. We appreciate

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Speaker 3: you answering what you can. On a different related matter,

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Speaker 3: Joe was mentioning the legislative calendar how it may not

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Speaker 3: favor passage of emergency aid, and in part that's because

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Speaker 3: we're just a few legislative days away from potentially a

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Speaker 3: partial government shutdown. The deadline is March first. You're going

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Speaker 3: to be out of session for a few weeks between

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Speaker 3: now and then. Can it be averted?

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Speaker 9: If so?

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Speaker 4: How this is another question where, you know, when Speaker

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Speaker 4: Johnson stepped forward and said he wanted to be speaker,

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Speaker 4: that puts him and his leadership team in.

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Speaker 6: Charge of the calendar.

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Speaker 4: Certainly, I think it's totally appropriate if Speaker Johnson wants

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Speaker 4: to say, you know what, not only do we have

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Speaker 4: this supplemental, this National Security supplemental to do, but we

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Speaker 4: also must fund the government. We also need to do

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Speaker 4: fis A seven oh two reauthorization.

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Speaker 6: We also need to focus on FAA reauthorization. Let's cancel

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Speaker 6: that district time.

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Speaker 4: Everybody come back to Washington, stay in Washington until we

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Speaker 4: get this done. I would be wholly supportive of a

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Speaker 4: Republican leadership choosing to do that, because you're right, there's

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Speaker 4: limited time, and there is much to do, and particularly

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Speaker 4: when we do see you know, floor time being spent

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Speaker 4: impeaching Secretary of majorcists rather than actually putting forth the

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Speaker 4: government funding that will ensure border patrol has the dollars

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Speaker 4: they need to actually enforce the current laws broken or

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Speaker 4: in need of improvement. Though they may be the idea

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Speaker 4: that we're spending time on that and not funding vital

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Speaker 4: agencies like border patrol, like you know, our military et cetera.

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Speaker 4: Is is you know, I think it speaks to the

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Speaker 4: sorts of priorities that are currently being put forward. But

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Speaker 4: the limited calendar that is of the majorities doing and

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Speaker 4: it is fixable if they want to keep us here,

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Speaker 4: and I would be wholly supportive of.

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Speaker 5: That, We'll let you get back to your day in

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Speaker 5: just a moment. Here, we only have a minute left. Congresswoman,

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Speaker 5: if Mike Johnson passes a cr to keep the government open,

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Speaker 5: will he be fired?

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Speaker 4: You know, I can't imagine the reality that. Well, I

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Speaker 4: can't predict what my Republican colleagues would do. I would

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Speaker 4: say the fact that we live in a world where

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Speaker 4: a speaker is routinely choosing not to govern because that

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Speaker 4: might lead to his ouser by his right wing flank.

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Speaker 4: You know, that is everything that is wrong with the

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Speaker 4: United States Congress.

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Speaker 6: I wish that he would.

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Speaker 4: Say, I'm a Speaker of the House. My job is

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Speaker 4: to ensure that governance is occurring. Therefore I will bring bills,

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Speaker 4: vote for them, vote against them.

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Speaker 6: That's the prerogative of each individual member.

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Speaker 4: But to actually keep us from governing because he might

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Speaker 4: lose his job. It's a sad reality and one I

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Speaker 4: wish that he you would push through and not be

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Speaker 4: fearful of.

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Speaker 5: We're glad you could talk to us today, Congresswoman Abigail

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Speaker 5: Spanberger live from Capitol Hill only here on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

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Speaker 7: With News Today from The New York Times.

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Speaker 5: Kayley, that's very concerning about what we're hearing from Ukraine.

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Speaker 5: You've heard of a hypersonic missile that Russia has this technology.

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Speaker 5: Kiev is claiming that it's been used, has evidence for

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Speaker 5: the first time. The State Department Pentagon trying to confirm this.

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Speaker 5: But this is a government run Kiev Scientific Research Institute

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Speaker 5: of Forensic Expertise that we're hearing from here concluding that

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Speaker 5: a three twenty two to Zircon missile was used in

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Speaker 5: an attack on February seventh that targeted cities across Ukraine.

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Speaker 5: This is a big deal, Kelly, because these missiles could

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Speaker 5: evade our own patriot defense missile systems that we're providing Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's exactly the concern here is that hypersonic missiles

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Speaker 3: would be essentially impossible or just extremely difficult to actually

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Speaker 3: shoot down. And as we're having a live conversation about

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Speaker 3: what additional lethal aid the US could be providing Ukraine

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Speaker 3: going forward. Is there actually anything we could provide that

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Speaker 3: would help them counter this specific threat?

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Speaker 5: That's right, because we don't have this technology, and I

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Speaker 5: know that we are working on it, but it's something

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Speaker 5: that we wanted to talk to Kelly Grico about from

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Speaker 5: the Stimpson Center, a senior fellow with the Reimagining US

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Speaker 5: Grand Strategy Program. It's great to see Kelly. You're an

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Speaker 5: expert in asymmetrical warfare. You understand the stakes on the

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Speaker 5: ground here in Ukraine. This sounds like a game changer,

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Speaker 5: is it.

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Speaker 10: Yes, Well, Fars, thank you for having me. I will

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Speaker 10: say that I was skeptical of this reporting that the

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Speaker 10: Russians had actually used what is a true hypersonic cruise missile.

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Speaker 10: But I'm a little taken aback that the United Kingdom's

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Speaker 10: intelligence put out a statement today essentially confirming that they

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Speaker 10: believe this was in fact a true hypersonic missile that

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Speaker 10: the Russians used.

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Speaker 3: And if that's the case, how do you counter that,

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Speaker 3: if this is going to be a live, potential force

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Speaker 3: being used against Ukraine in this ongoing conflict.

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Speaker 10: Well, I think the good news is that these are

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Speaker 10: going to be very expensive weapons, so they if this

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Speaker 10: is really the case, indeed the case that it was used,

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Speaker 10: I don't think Russia will have large stockpiles of these weapons,

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Speaker 10: and they're choosing a very expensive way, frankly, to go

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Speaker 10: about destroying Ukrainian infrastructure by using these kinds of weapons.

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Speaker 10: It will be extremely difficult for the Ukrainians to defend

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Speaker 10: against this because this kind of weapon is moved so quickly.

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Speaker 10: Because it moves so quickly, it means that Ukrainian air

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Speaker 10: defenders have very little time to identify this and intercept it.

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Speaker 5: Kelly, we've spent a bit of time talking about F

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Speaker 5: sixteen's and whether they could help Ukraine close the skies.

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Speaker 5: As President Selenski likes to say, you've had contrarian views

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Speaker 5: on this. I wonder if there are any other means

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Speaker 5: to help Ukraine close the skies considering a new threat

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Speaker 5: like this.

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Speaker 10: No, I mean, I think in terms of this specific weapon,

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Speaker 10: this hypersonic weapon, I think it will be very difficult,

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Speaker 10: given in existing systems, to be able to defend that.

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Speaker 10: And it's not as though we're keeping something back stateside

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Speaker 10: from the Ukrainian in that regards. This doesn't really exist.

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Speaker 10: I do think though, there's a broader question here instead

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Speaker 10: of focusing just on this particular missile, which is that

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Speaker 10: I'm quite concerned about Ukraine's and air defenses at this point.

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Speaker 10: We're seeing regularly that they're intercepting missiles, and and I

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Speaker 10: am concerned about what the stockpiles on their air defense

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Speaker 10: systems look like at this point, particularly given we're no

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Speaker 10: longer sending more missiles and other countries have limited supplies.

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Speaker 3: So as we have Congress now grappling with the question

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Speaker 3: specifically the House, as to whether or not they are

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Speaker 3: going to provide any more a to Ukraine, it is

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Speaker 3: now in the hands of Speaker Johnson and the Republican

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Speaker 3: majority in large part, how soon do you think Ukraine

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Speaker 3: is at risk of full depletion of the ammunition of

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Speaker 3: the lethal aid the US was providing.

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Speaker 10: Yes, I mean this is a closely guarded secret in

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Speaker 10: terms of exactly what they have left in terms of

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Speaker 10: their stockpiles of air defenses and ammunition. I think the

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Speaker 10: ammunition story, it's a little bit easier to tell because

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Speaker 10: we can, based on reports with soldiers on the ground

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Speaker 10: are talking about how much they're rationing their ammunition you know,

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Speaker 10: I think one thing I just say is that my

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Speaker 10: colleague Emma Ashford and I recently wrote an article in

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Speaker 10: Foreign Affairs talking about Ukraine's need to really adopt a

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Speaker 10: defensive strategy. And I think as we're thinking about supplementals

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Speaker 10: and if we are potentially going to continue some kind

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Speaker 10: of funding, I think we need to be really targeted

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Speaker 10: and kinds of systems were providing to Ukraine. And so

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Speaker 10: I would really focus this on air defense. I would

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Speaker 10: focus it on artillery, and I would focus it on

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Speaker 10: defensive works, fortifications, concrete fortifications that are making very difficult

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Speaker 10: for Russia to try to take more territory.

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Speaker 5: We've heard the extent to which, and this is from

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Speaker 5: intelligence in Estonia, the extent to which Russia is lapping

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Speaker 5: Ukraine when it comes to munitions, specifically old fashioned shells,

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Speaker 5: the stuff that we just can't make fast enough, never

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Speaker 5: mind get money to produce for Ukraine. We started our

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Speaker 5: conversation talking about hypersonic missiles. How about the most old

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Speaker 5: fashioned mortar rounds that Ukraine needs.

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Speaker 10: Kelly, You're absolutely right. This is actually the most important thing.

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Speaker 10: Are these old fashion is expensive Canada hybrisonics, but it's

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Speaker 10: really this is an artillery war, very much in artillery war,

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Speaker 10: and I think this is the lack of artillery right

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Speaker 10: now for Ukraine, and also it's lack of band power.

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Speaker 10: We're seeing a lot of reports I think that are

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Speaker 10: very concerning coming out of Ukraine but not being able

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Speaker 10: to get the recruits it needs for demand its front

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Speaker 10: lines and debates they're having about recruiting, you know, having

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Speaker 10: another call up, and so it's partly about getting them

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Speaker 10: more ammunition, but Ukraine actually is also having some real

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Speaker 10: difficulties I think internally about the future direction of the war.

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Speaker 10: And I do think this is a place again where

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Speaker 10: we do have some leverage, particularly if we decide to

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Speaker 10: provide more aid, that we should be making it clear

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Speaker 10: that we would like this to be about doubling down

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Speaker 10: on a defensive military strategy. Well, of course, Kelly, in

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Speaker 10: this supplemental aid package, it's not just about providing aid

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Speaker 10: for Ukraine, but providing aid for Israel as well, and

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Speaker 10: there's an ongoing conflict as we know, between Israel and Hamas.

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Speaker 10: We actually just were getting headline out from Prime Minister

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Speaker 10: bb Net Yahus who said Israel will fight until victory,

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Speaker 10: including in Rafa, that they will operate in Rafa after

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Speaker 10: civilians are allowed to leave. As we are now moving

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Speaker 10: to the kind of to new.

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Speaker 3: Stages of this conflict between Israel and Hamas, what is

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Speaker 3: it that Israel needs from the United States in terms

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Speaker 3: of aid?

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Speaker 10: Yeah, so, you know, I think in terms of issue,

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Speaker 10: it's probably more going to be about munitions replaced munitions.

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Speaker 10: Some are artillery because they are using a considerable mount

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Speaker 10: but my guess is it's probably more high end missiles

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Speaker 10: because they're doing a lot. They're conducting a lot of strikes,

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Speaker 10: so I think they're looking for for more of those

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Speaker 10: kinds of systems. They're not necessarily there's not necessarily a

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Speaker 10: competition as much between what Israel needs and what Ukraine

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Speaker 10: needs in terms of these supplementals. So I guess that's

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Speaker 10: that's the one piece of good news for the US

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Speaker 10: industrial base.

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Speaker 5: Boy, well, I guess we could use that in the meantime.

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Speaker 5: What is in store for Ukraine? We only have a

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Speaker 5: minute left, Kelly, in the next month, when will we

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Speaker 5: know if this was real?

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Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean, I think what we need is for

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Speaker 10: US intelligence to come out and confirm it, and I'd

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Speaker 10: like to see that and more information about this particular,

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Speaker 10: how they confirmed it. You know what evidence was used

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Speaker 10: to confirm that this was actually truly a hypersonic missile.

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Speaker 3: All right, Kelly Greco, thank you so much as always

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Speaker 3: for joining us. We really appreciate your time. Kelly Greco

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Speaker 3: joining us from the Dimpson Center. She's a senior fellow

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Speaker 3: there with the reimagining a US Grand Strategy program and

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Speaker 3: interesting to contrast the conversations we're having about the military

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Speaker 3: reality on the ground in Ukraine versus the reality on

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Speaker 3: the ground and Capitol Hill and a reluctance to get

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Speaker 3: this across the line.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, they're two different worlds right now, but we're getting

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Speaker 5: used to that scenario here in Washington.

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Speaker 8: Kyley, we'll have a lot more straight ahead on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Bellain. It's some power podcast.

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Speaker 1: Catch just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car

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Speaker 1: Play and then Roun Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 2: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 2: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: We want to head out back up to New York,

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Speaker 3: where a very own David Weston, host of Wall Street Week,

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Speaker 3: is joined for a conversation with Gary Gensler, the chair

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Speaker 3: of the sec David.

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Speaker 11: Cally somebody you know well. Actually Gary Gensler is the

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Speaker 11: chair of the Securities in Exchange coquestion. Thanks so much

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Speaker 11: for being here with us in New York.

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Speaker 9: No, it's so terrific to be here Valentine's Day.

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Speaker 11: Now, about that heavy Valentine's Day, I hope you're taking

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Speaker 11: care of that.

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Speaker 9: I hope, well, but you are with that great wife.

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Speaker 11: Of Yeah, I did the first thing in the morning.

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Speaker 11: So let's first talk about the news of the day,

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Speaker 11: this typographical era, apparently from Lyft. It's too soon, I

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Speaker 11: assume for you to know what happened, and you don't

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Speaker 11: talk about any difer cases. But I want to ask

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Speaker 11: a more general question about fat fingers. Is it part

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Speaker 11: of your jurisdiction to make sure the public traded companies

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Speaker 11: have certain mechanisms in place to minimize We can never

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Speaker 11: eliminate mistakes, but to minimize them.

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Speaker 12: Well, so it's really part of their responsibility.

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Speaker 9: You use the term fat finger.

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Speaker 12: It could be a trading shop that sends a flood

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Speaker 12: of orders to an exchange. In the old days, they

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Speaker 12: called it a fat finger because somebody's finger hit. Now

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Speaker 12: it could be in an algorithm, or even that your filings,

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Speaker 12: your press releases, and your annual reports are accurate.

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Speaker 9: So that's really up to them. But yes, we have

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Speaker 9: a role.

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Speaker 12: With the Security is an exchange commission to oversee to

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Speaker 12: make sure that people don't defraud the public and that

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Speaker 12: they publish accurate financials.

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Speaker 11: So when something like this happens, you call somebody up

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Speaker 11: and say, are we're looking into this to just make

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Speaker 11: sure there wasn't something efficient.

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Speaker 9: I can't. I can't speak of individual things. Let me

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Speaker 9: step back.

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Speaker 12: So I'm chair of a five thousand person agency. A

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Speaker 12: quarter of our agency does enforcement, another quarter does examination.

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Speaker 9: They don't call me up. I don't call them up

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Speaker 9: on a.

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Speaker 12: Daily basis, say look at this really talented David. They

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Speaker 12: figure out what to We literally get something like forty

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Speaker 12: to fifty thousand tips, complaints and referrals a year, and

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Speaker 12: they have to figure out which ones to pursue, which

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Speaker 12: ones not to. And so occasionally I read about things

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Speaker 12: in the press and I go, oh, I didn't know

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Speaker 12: we were investigating that's a really that's great. Our Boston

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Speaker 12: office is on that.

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Speaker 11: Another subject, very much in the press has been for

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Speaker 11: some time now. Obviously is bitcoin. The ETF Spot Bitcoin

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Speaker 11: that you approved, and as I understand that, part of

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Speaker 11: the reason you did it, the explanation for it was

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Speaker 11: you felt that the CMA futures Bitcoin situation would be

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Speaker 11: good enough to indicate if there's any market manipulation going on,

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Speaker 11: are you far enough into it to know whether that

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Speaker 11: theory holds true than in fact, you can tell from

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Speaker 11: that CME futures trading what might be going on with Spot.

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Speaker 12: So it's a little bit more nuanced than that. But

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Speaker 12: several years ago, back in twenty twenty one, there was

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Speaker 12: a product that went live, so to speak, an exchange

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Speaker 12: traded fund wrapped around these bitcoin futures at the Chicago

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Speaker 12: Mercantil Exchange. And then a different set of products came

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Speaker 12: to us and asked a list on the stock exchanges.

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Speaker 12: And while we had denied like two dozen of these

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Speaker 12: over about five years, a court in Washington said no,

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Speaker 12: they thought we had not gotten that right, and they

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Speaker 12: remanded it back to us. And I thought, really the

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Speaker 12: most sustainable thing forward was.

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Speaker 9: To approve these. Given the court ruling.

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Speaker 12: In terms of the statistics, we really do look out

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Speaker 12: and sure as best we can there's not fraud manipulation.

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Speaker 12: But one of the challenges on the bitcoin markets, David,

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Speaker 12: is so much of its traded on trading platforms that

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Speaker 12: are non compliant with our laws. Now, bitcoin's not a security,

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Speaker 12: but they're trading on those platforms a lot of other

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Speaker 12: crypto tokens. Without prejudging anyone that'd be careful that with

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Speaker 12: hundreds of other crypto tokens on there, likely there's other securities.

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Speaker 12: And we are in court in a number of these

443
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 12: cases in front of various judges and panels, and so

444
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:28,160
Speaker 12: the American public when you're investing in something like bitcoin,

445
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 12: to be aware one it's a highly speculative asset. Number two,

446
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:37,679
Speaker 12: it's generally trading on some platform that is not fully

447
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:42,200
Speaker 12: compliant with the securities loss for other things they're doing.

448
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 12: And number three I had meant sin is think about

449
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:48,120
Speaker 12: what use case?

450
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:49,840
Speaker 9: What is the actual use case?

451
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 12: When you buy one hundred shares of XYZ stock, you

452
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 12: kind of know what's behind that company, what that they

453
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 12: are there is.

454
00:24:58,200 --> 00:24:59,679
Speaker 11: You said you're not going to pre judge. I wouldn't

455
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 11: expect you to prejudge, So let me ask you to prejudge.

456
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 9: Yeah, David, I figured.

457
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 11: That a big question people are asking is ethereum. Is

458
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 11: there a principal difference, a reasonable difference between bitcoin and ethereum.

459
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:13,440
Speaker 11: Now I understand you'll have to have an application to

460
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:15,159
Speaker 11: look at all the details and stuff, but just in

461
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,920
Speaker 11: a general sense, is there a distinction between the two

462
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:18,640
Speaker 11: for this purpose?

463
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,560
Speaker 12: So you help the American public understand why. I'm not

464
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 12: going to answer that because I am in just one

465
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,679
Speaker 12: member of a five member commission, but two there's various

466
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 12: applications in front of our commission, and just as you

467
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:35,160
Speaker 12: wouldn't want to know a judge to prejudge, a commissioner

468
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:38,400
Speaker 12: shouldn't prejudge those applications are in front of us right now.

469
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 11: Okay, let's talk about the disclosure of climate issues, which

470
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 11: has been pending before the Commission and it has not

471
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:45,440
Speaker 11: come out yet.

472
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:46,920
Speaker 8: It's not clear.

473
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:49,200
Speaker 11: Why can you give us as the timetable and when

474
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 11: you may have those regulations?

475
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 9: So let me just step back.

476
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:56,919
Speaker 12: So the Securities and Exchange Commission is not a climate regulator.

477
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 12: We are not a regulator of climate risk. But we

478
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 12: oversee companies raising money in the public and they disclose

479
00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 12: their material risks to you, or they're supposed to disclose

480
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 12: some material risk of rules that have been around for decades,

481
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:19,040
Speaker 12: and many of those companies that are already making significant disclosures.

482
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:22,120
Speaker 12: I think something like ninety percent of the top thousand

483
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:27,639
Speaker 12: companies in the US by market cap disclose something about climate.

484
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:32,920
Speaker 12: Over half to disclose their greenhouse gas emissions. So there

485
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:36,360
Speaker 12: we have a role to bring some consistency, some comparability.

486
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 9: You can compare and contrast. That's our role.

487
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 12: It's a securities market role, not a climate role. You

488
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:48,400
Speaker 12: asked about timing, Ah, they're the great question. We proposed

489
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:52,880
Speaker 12: that rule back in March of twenty twenty two. We

490
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 12: tend to take somewhere in the order of year and

491
00:26:56,119 --> 00:27:00,160
Speaker 12: a half to two years to adopt rules if if

492
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 12: we adopt them. Can't prejudge, but I would say, here's

493
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 12: the one wrinkled of this, my friend, sixteen thousand public comments.

494
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:11,680
Speaker 12: We got four four hundred of them, unique different comments.

495
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:13,919
Speaker 12: We not only have to read them, we have to

496
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:17,360
Speaker 12: consider them. We have to think about what adjustments we make.

497
00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:20,960
Speaker 12: That's the biggest docket of comments we've ever received on

498
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 12: a rule. So that's part of why it's you know,

499
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 12: we do our work carefully.

500
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 11: Well, I'm curious about behind the scenes what you take

501
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:30,879
Speaker 11: into account. And one thing's very specifically. We have an

502
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 11: election year this year. You might have noticed there may

503
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:36,159
Speaker 11: be changes in the Congress in the presidency. There's a

504
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:39,439
Speaker 11: Congression Review Act that says, basically, if you don't get

505
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 11: some of these rules out before something like six months

506
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 11: before the election, they can be reversed by the next Congress.

507
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:46,640
Speaker 11: Do you even take that into account and thinking about

508
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:48,120
Speaker 11: the timing and bringing regulations out.

509
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:52,439
Speaker 12: I try not to have this managed by the clock.

510
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:55,679
Speaker 12: And you know, everybody says, oh, no, come on, no,

511
00:27:56,160 --> 00:28:00,400
Speaker 12: it's really about getting it right and allowing that's they have.

512
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 9: To work their part, the.

513
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 12: Economists, the lawyers, the policy folks, the five Commissioners to

514
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 12: weigh in. But we're certainly aware. I mean, Congress is

515
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 12: a really important part of you know, they ask a

516
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 12: lot of questions about every one of our important initiatives,

517
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:23,680
Speaker 12: but this climate risk disclosure. But again, we want to

518
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 12: get it right and not against the clock.

519
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 11: You also have just brought out a regulation involving hedge

520
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 11: funds and trading in US treasuries. A lot of complaints

521
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 11: about it, a lot of gnashing of teeth, if I

522
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 11: can call it that, on part of some of the

523
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 11: hedge funds. Do you take into account the possibility of

524
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 11: challenges in court and putting together regulation because you're going

525
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 11: to get challenged, do you shape the regulation try to

526
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 11: minimize the chance of being overturned by the Court of appial.

527
00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 12: It's going to be a yes. But let me just

528
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:54,719
Speaker 12: answer something. What we've done is the US treasury market

529
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 12: is the base of the rest of our capital markets.

530
00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:01,080
Speaker 12: It's also how when you talked to or Pow or

531
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:05,320
Speaker 12: sometimes you talk to former Secretary of Summers about monetary policy.

532
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 12: It's how we do our monetary policy. So the treasury

533
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 12: market is so critical. It's how we also maintain our

534
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 12: dollar dominance around the globe. So what we've had is

535
00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 12: a series of four or five rules around the US

536
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 12: treasury market, central clearing, and yes, something about the dealers.

537
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 12: And by the way, it's mostly about something called principal

538
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:29,680
Speaker 12: trading firms, not hedge funds, not hedge funds. But to

539
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 12: your question, we live within the law, and we live

540
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 12: within how the courts interpret the law, and ultimately the

541
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 12: Supreme Court rights the law of the land, as the

542
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:43,400
Speaker 12: Great Chief Justice Marshall once wrote two hundred years ago.

543
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 12: So we do take that into consideration, and we're appropriate,

544
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 12: we pivot, we moderate, taking into consideration, and it's critical

545
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 12: the American public have confidence in their sec but it's

546
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 12: also critical that a rule will be stained in court

547
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 12: because then it can actually help investors and issue us

548
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 12: for hopefully years to come.

549
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 11: Gary, thank you so much for being with us. Really

550
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 11: appreciate that's Gary Genster, Chair of the Securities and Exchange.

551
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:15,560
Speaker 11: Thank to you, Kaylee and Joe David Weston.

552
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 7: We thank you, of course.

553
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:18,480
Speaker 5: David the host of Bloomberg's Wall Street Week in a

554
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 5: fascinating conversation there that we're glad we could bring to

555
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 5: our TV and radio audiences worldwide. They covered a lot

556
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:28,640
Speaker 5: of ground, Kaylee, and this this is your wheelhouse when

557
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 5: it comes to climate rules and timeline. No concern by

558
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 5: the chairman about a potential change in administration with a

559
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 5: lot of work left this.

560
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:41,479
Speaker 3: Year, Yeah, no concern expressed saying he's operating in the

561
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:44,200
Speaker 3: absence of a timeline and mind though, the Congressional Review

562
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:46,320
Speaker 3: Act that David asked about is a very real thing.

563
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:48,280
Speaker 3: With it a certain amount of legislative days, you could

564
00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:52,320
Speaker 3: have a future in Congress in which there potentially could

565
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 3: be an overturning of some of these rules that the

566
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 3: SEC as a regulator has proposed. He was right to

567
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:00,320
Speaker 3: point out that this is just a proposal. They wereved

568
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 3: a ton of feedback on it, thousands of comments, because

569
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 3: there has been a great deal of pushback, specifically on

570
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 3: Scope three emissions, concern about what it would mean for

571
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 3: the supply chain, for even things like small farms to

572
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 3: be able to report these kind of disclosures. And it's

573
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:17,320
Speaker 3: kind of that level of disclosure that really has received

574
00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 3: a lot of the pushback and what we're waiting to

575
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 3: see if it ends up in the final rule, if

576
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 3: and when we get it. We didn't really get a

577
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 3: lot of clues there from the chairman as to when

578
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 3: that will come.

579
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 5: He plays it pretty close to the vest, just as

580
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:30,080
Speaker 5: a rule wouldn't budge on ether and ether ATF.

581
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 8: Does that mean we're getting close to.

582
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 7: A decision potentially?

583
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 3: He hasn't actually said whether he thinks it's a security

584
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 3: or commodity. And there are more filings for spot ether ATFS.

585
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 3: We got another one from Franklin Templeton just this week,

586
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 3: and that's what a lot of crypto markets are looking

587
00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:45,280
Speaker 3: ahead to.

588
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:47,840
Speaker 8: They've got a lot to clear through the end of

589
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 8: this year.

590
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 6: He's a busy man.

591
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, fascinating conversation with Kaylee Lines. I'm Joe Matthew. Stay

592
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 5: with us on the fastest show in politics. This is Bloomberg.

593
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:02,240
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

594
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 2: Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and

595
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 2: then ron Oto with a Bloomberg Business app. You can

596
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:11,440
Speaker 2: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New

597
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 2: York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

598
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 5: Welcome to the Valentine's Day edition of Balance of Power.

599
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 5: We are now down to two I was told there'd

600
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 5: be no math, but we have to do a little

601
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 5: bit today, a two vote margin essentially for Speaker Mike Johnson.

602
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 5: If you put this together, follow me what happened in

603
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 5: New York three last night, Democrats flipped the seat that

604
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:42,000
Speaker 5: once belonged to George Santos. We are now at a

605
00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 5: two nineteen two thirteen majority with three vacancies. That means

606
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 5: Mike Johnson can only lose two to get anything done here.

607
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 5: So the walls may be closing in as for that race,

608
00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 5: and we're going to talk about that with Don Levy.

609
00:32:56,280 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 5: Aren't we glad Don Levy's back today? From Siena College poll,

610
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:04,240
Speaker 5: they called it Tom Swazi wins, but it was by

611
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,479
Speaker 5: a wider margin, about eight points. The poll showed him

612
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 5: up by four. Either way, it changes the math here

613
00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:13,720
Speaker 5: in Washington, in a Congress and a House that was

614
00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:18,520
Speaker 5: already having trouble getting anything done, or maybe we haven't

615
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 5: gotten anything done. That's where we start with Billy House,

616
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 5: who might be the last person left on Capitol Hill today.

617
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 5: Billy is great to see a Bloomberg Congress reporter. If

618
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:31,360
Speaker 5: my math is right here, Mike Johnson's job just got

619
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:32,800
Speaker 5: a lot more difficult, right, Billy.

620
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 13: That's correct because although to nineteen versus two thirteen is

621
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:42,560
Speaker 13: six votes, tie, boats go to defeat. In other words,

622
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 13: you got to get more than a tie if you're

623
00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 13: going to pass a bill, there you go.

624
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 5: And so we actually saw a tie almost last week

625
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 5: when they tried to impeach Alejandro Majorcis and Al Green

626
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 5: showed up and things started to get a little more complex.

627
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:00,800
Speaker 5: Republicans had to take the fun on that bill so

628
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 5: they could do it again, Billy, and it happened last night.

629
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 5: This says everything to me, we've had an historic impeachment

630
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 5: of a cabinet secretary, the Homeland Security Secretary. He was

631
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:14,080
Speaker 5: impeached by one that says to me following the election

632
00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 5: that vote could not be duplicated. Tonight, they actually managed

633
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 5: to thread the needle on this, Billy.

634
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,480
Speaker 13: You're absolutely correct. I mean there were two votes on

635
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:26,720
Speaker 13: both sides of the aisle that weren't so a total

636
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:30,920
Speaker 13: of four that weren't cast. Two Democrats couldn't make it

637
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:35,640
Speaker 13: to town, and two Republicans apparently didn't want to cast

638
00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 13: that vote. But you're correct. A margin of one is

639
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 13: not a big margin.

640
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 5: And now that they've flipped New York three to Democrats,

641
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 5: that would be a tie again if they held the

642
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 5: vote tonight. So good time, I guess on the part

643
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 5: of Mike Johnson, Billy. The conventional wisdom here in Washington

644
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 5: is that the impeachment goes to die in the Senate,

645
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:00,160
Speaker 5: that we don't even see a trial, you.

646
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:04,840
Speaker 13: Hearing, well, what we do know from the Senate and

647
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:10,799
Speaker 13: Senator majority leader of Schumer's office is that they do

648
00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:13,360
Speaker 13: not expect the articles to be and there's a solemn

649
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 13: sort of Masonic march of the articles over from the

650
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 13: House to the Senate. If you might remember the Trump impeachments,

651
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:24,520
Speaker 13: this won't occur untill after the Senate returns on January.

652
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 13: I'm in February twenty seventh, and then the Senate would

653
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:32,440
Speaker 13: be sworn in as jurors in a tribal start. Ironically,

654
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:37,279
Speaker 13: House Republicans's varies. This impeachment efforts are going to run

655
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 13: into each other because Hunter Biden's supposed to test by

656
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:42,799
Speaker 13: in the House on February twenty eighth, So you've had

657
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:44,359
Speaker 13: both of those happening at the same time.

658
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 5: Well, we've got a calendar problem again here, Billy, because

659
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:51,280
Speaker 5: it's recess time now, and by the looks of things,

660
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:56,200
Speaker 5: there's something like six legislative days left to avoid a

661
00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:58,480
Speaker 5: government shutdown, and by the time they come back from

662
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:01,400
Speaker 5: recess there will be only three. Do we need to

663
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:03,839
Speaker 5: start having a more serious conversation about this. I've been

664
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:05,880
Speaker 5: asking people every day and I keep hearing, oh, no,

665
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:09,640
Speaker 5: they'll figure this out. But what three weeks from tomorrow

666
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 5: we start shutting down?

667
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:16,439
Speaker 13: Absolutely? In fact, I asked last night Senior Appropriator Tom Cole,

668
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,319
Speaker 13: the Rules chairman, are we gonna have a shutdown? He

669
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:23,520
Speaker 13: said emphatically, no, but what you are seeing when you

670
00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:27,239
Speaker 13: see the calendar is an impeachment in the Senate Hunter

671
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 13: Biden questioning over here in the House, and just a

672
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:33,719
Speaker 13: couple of days before a shutdown. They do have a

673
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 13: lot of things going on when they return later this month,

674
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:41,040
Speaker 13: a lot of them self imposed deadlines, and of course

675
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 13: the government shutdown ones are kind of self imposed. They're

676
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 13: just you know, pick the can deadlines that were supposed

677
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:49,959
Speaker 13: to be resolved earlier this year.

678
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 5: Well, so, speaking of kicking the can, is that what

679
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:56,879
Speaker 5: members think? Is that why everyone's convinced that we will

680
00:36:56,880 --> 00:36:58,759
Speaker 5: not have a shutdown because the Speaker will have to

681
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:01,799
Speaker 5: cave do another can hinuing resolution, which you vowed not

682
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 5: to do.

683
00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:06,239
Speaker 13: Hey, that's a good question. There does seem to be

684
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:10,279
Speaker 13: a malaise or a lack of concern, and perhaps now

685
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 13: we've just gotten into a feeling that, well, well we

686
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:18,600
Speaker 13: can always do another CEDR. Now that's what House conservatives

687
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:23,239
Speaker 13: get really irate over. But despite all their stomping and

688
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:26,440
Speaker 13: fist pounding, they haven't really taken that out on the

689
00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 13: new Speaker Johnson yet.

690
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 8: Yeah.

691
00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:31,400
Speaker 7: Well, we'll stay tuned.

692
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 8: Billy.

693
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:33,840
Speaker 5: I can't figure out how they're going to avoid this

694
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:36,560
Speaker 5: at some point in the next several weeks, and we'll

695
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:38,920
Speaker 5: remind our viewers and listeners that the State of the

696
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:41,440
Speaker 5: Union would only be a couple of days after that.

697
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:44,839
Speaker 5: So these all overlap along with Super Tuesday. Billy House,

698
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 5: great to see you reporting live from the Capitol. Bloomberg

699
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 5: News congressional reporter with Love in the air today in

700
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:54,920
Speaker 5: Washington on this Valentine's Day. Too bad, it's not helping

701
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 5: the bipartisanship. Don Levy told us what was going to

702
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:02,320
Speaker 5: happen last week in the race in New York three.

703
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:05,799
Speaker 5: He runs the Sienna College Poll. He's the director of

704
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:08,360
Speaker 5: the Sienna College Research Institute.

705
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:09,759
Speaker 7: And Donn, it's great to see.

706
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:12,240
Speaker 5: I'm glad you came back because we do have questions

707
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:14,520
Speaker 5: about the way this all came down. You were inundated

708
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 5: with a big snowstorm up there yesterday. And I'll remind

709
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:20,239
Speaker 5: everybody that this is the seat once held by George Santos.

710
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 5: We were told that George Santos may have ruined the

711
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:26,799
Speaker 5: district for Republicans for some time, and it seemed to

712
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 5: not be a great factor in this race.

713
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:29,279
Speaker 7: Donn.

714
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:32,520
Speaker 5: It came down to a lot of national issues, like

715
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:37,759
Speaker 5: the border, like spending, and it's been interesting Israel as

716
00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:39,520
Speaker 5: well to watch this whole thing shake out.

717
00:38:39,520 --> 00:38:41,360
Speaker 7: He won by more than you thought, didn't.

718
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:45,359
Speaker 14: He He did. Tom Swazi ended up winning by just

719
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:47,400
Speaker 14: a little bit under eight points. We had him at

720
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:51,239
Speaker 14: about four points, and he overperformed really relative to our

721
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:54,399
Speaker 14: poll in both the Queen's component of the district, which

722
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:56,719
Speaker 14: is about twenty percent, actually showed up at the rate

723
00:38:56,760 --> 00:39:00,480
Speaker 14: of only about fifteen percent last night, and Nasau County

724
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:02,880
Speaker 14: eighty percent of the district voted at the rate of

725
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:06,480
Speaker 14: about eighty five percent. And Tom SWASEI is a known

726
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 14: quantity within that district. He's been active in Nascau County

727
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 14: politics now going back twenty years. So the voters there,

728
00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:17,439
Speaker 14: most especially in Nasau, but also in that small section

729
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 14: of Queens certainly knew him. He served three terms in Congress,

730
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 14: so they were prepared last night to send Tom swase

731
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 14: back to Washington.

732
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 5: Well, Sienna did the work there, and I hope you're

733
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 5: taking a victory lap today. Don I wonder to what

734
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:36,479
Speaker 5: extent turnout factored into this. That's all we heard about

735
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:37,360
Speaker 5: all day was the weather.

736
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:41,000
Speaker 14: Well, I think the weather did have some effect, as

737
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:45,800
Speaker 14: you know, Democrats turned out very strongly in the early voting,

738
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:48,480
Speaker 14: and when the early vote came out last night, you

739
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:52,880
Speaker 14: saw the Democrats and Tom Swase take it enormously. Republicans

740
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:55,920
Speaker 14: do quite well in same day voting, but certainly there

741
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:59,080
Speaker 14: was just not enough same day Republican vote. There's a

742
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:04,120
Speaker 14: couple of sections district, the southern section district Massapequa Levittown,

743
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:07,280
Speaker 14: where the Republicans were a little unhappy with the degree

744
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:09,359
Speaker 14: to which they got turned out. In fact, they went

745
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:12,719
Speaker 14: out and hired private snowplows to try to clear the

746
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:16,520
Speaker 14: roads to encourage that turnout, but they were a little

747
00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:19,760
Speaker 14: bit deflated with the same day turnout. And as a result,

748
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:23,480
Speaker 14: whereas we had Tom Swase in our poll carrying Nassau

749
00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:26,319
Speaker 14: by about a point, he ended up carrying Nassau by

750
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:29,800
Speaker 14: about five points, and to some effect, that was turnout.

751
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:31,920
Speaker 14: But I think there was more to it than that. Actually,

752
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:35,840
Speaker 14: I think that this closing week of the election and

753
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 14: the build up to this special election, Tom Swazi did

754
00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:42,560
Speaker 14: a fantastic job closing. He took the immigration issue on

755
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:45,760
Speaker 14: head on. What was seen as a weakness for Tom Swazi,

756
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:48,920
Speaker 14: he ended up turning into a strength, perhaps in part

757
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:52,520
Speaker 14: aided by the bill in the Senate, actually dying the

758
00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:55,279
Speaker 14: bipartisan bill, which he said he was a strong supporter of.

759
00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:58,759
Speaker 14: Mazi Phillips said that she was opposed to that that

760
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:03,480
Speaker 14: didn't play well this bipartisan spirit that exists in New

761
00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:05,320
Speaker 14: York three.

762
00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:08,640
Speaker 5: Well, Donald Trump says it was all about him. Don

763
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 5: I'm guessing you've seen the post by now referring to

764
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:17,319
Speaker 5: Mazi Pillup as foolish. And he's of course making the

765
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:20,280
Speaker 5: case that she didn't use him enough ro lean into Maga,

766
00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:22,680
Speaker 5: he says, running in a race where she did not

767
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:25,480
Speaker 5: endorse me, tried to straddle the fence when she could

768
00:41:25,520 --> 00:41:29,160
Speaker 5: have easily won if she understood anything about modern day

769
00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:32,960
Speaker 5: politics in America. So what extent was there a Trump

770
00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 5: factor or a lack thereof?

771
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 8: In New York three?

772
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:39,719
Speaker 14: Our poll and continued to show that Donald Trump was

773
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:44,520
Speaker 14: unpopular in the district, about as equally unpopular as Joe Biden.

774
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:48,360
Speaker 14: I think that's a bit of Monday Morning quarterbacking. Mazie

775
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:52,440
Speaker 14: Pillup did straddle defense, though, and really I think didn't

776
00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:56,799
Speaker 14: close strongly because of that. You know, her position on

777
00:41:57,200 --> 00:42:01,160
Speaker 14: a national abortion band, you know, and previously in New

778
00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:05,120
Speaker 14: York abortion, while an important issue, didn't seem quite as salient,

779
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:08,200
Speaker 14: because in New York most people feel as though a

780
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:11,799
Speaker 14: woman's right to choose is sacra sank. But to the

781
00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:15,840
Speaker 14: degree that Mazi Phillop was identified as potentially being a

782
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:19,280
Speaker 14: vote for a national abortion band and not really taking

783
00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 14: a razor clear position on that, that hurt her in

784
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:26,480
Speaker 14: the final week. Santos on the other side, you see

785
00:42:26,520 --> 00:42:29,520
Speaker 14: the Swazi, on the other hand, took a very strong

786
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:34,040
Speaker 14: position on abortion, and so between that classic Democratic position

787
00:42:34,320 --> 00:42:39,040
Speaker 14: of support for abortion rights as well as Swazi taking

788
00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:42,720
Speaker 14: the immigration issue on head on allowed him to close

789
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:44,200
Speaker 14: very strongly in the race.

790
00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:47,560
Speaker 5: Well, he's got some people calling this the recipe to

791
00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:51,440
Speaker 5: win for Democrats here in November. Down I wonder your

792
00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:55,279
Speaker 5: thoughts on that, because he called out Republicans on that

793
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:58,680
Speaker 5: border plan that collapsed, the compromise that never got a

794
00:42:58,760 --> 00:42:59,760
Speaker 5: vote in the House.

795
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:01,920
Speaker 7: Is that going to be the model going forward?

796
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:05,680
Speaker 14: Well, certainly, I think in swing districts, and we've got

797
00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:09,480
Speaker 14: about five of them here in New York. This idea

798
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:12,839
Speaker 14: of getting something done, whether it's getting something done on

799
00:43:12,880 --> 00:43:15,440
Speaker 14: the border, which is paramount right now, but getting something

800
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:18,200
Speaker 14: done across the board the issue could be Ukraine, it

801
00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 14: could be Israel, it could be keeping the government open.

802
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:25,440
Speaker 14: Tom Swazi did a great job saying I am a bipartisan,

803
00:43:25,640 --> 00:43:29,759
Speaker 14: hard working representative and getting something done is what has

804
00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:31,719
Speaker 14: to happen. So when you look to a couple of

805
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:34,160
Speaker 14: the other districts in Long Island, a couple of the

806
00:43:34,200 --> 00:43:38,040
Speaker 14: districts in the Hudson Valley, certainly the Republicans who occupy

807
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:41,440
Speaker 14: those seats right now are taking notice and are going

808
00:43:41,480 --> 00:43:44,840
Speaker 14: to have to pay attention to how Tom Swase closed

809
00:43:44,880 --> 00:43:50,520
Speaker 14: against Mazi pibliup, including saying immigration, I'm for a bipartisan agreement.

810
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:53,279
Speaker 14: Let's get something done that worked for him.

811
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:58,120
Speaker 5: I'm talking with Don Levy of the Siena College Research

812
00:43:58,239 --> 00:44:02,480
Speaker 5: Institute as we look ahead to fall, and this is

813
00:44:02,520 --> 00:44:05,319
Speaker 5: going to be a quick turnaround here. Donald Trump said

814
00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:07,600
Speaker 5: something else in his post, give us a real candidate

815
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:10,439
Speaker 5: in the district for November. Swase, I know him well,

816
00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 5: can be easily beaten. And I wonder your thoughts on

817
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 5: what Republicans might do as an answer to what happened

818
00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:22,240
Speaker 5: here for the full blown election, but also the extent

819
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:25,640
Speaker 5: to which redistricting could play into this, because it's supposed

820
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:28,120
Speaker 5: to go back to making this an easier fight for

821
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:30,200
Speaker 5: a Tom Swazi or any Democrat, isn't.

822
00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:33,319
Speaker 14: It it is? Redistricting is still a little bit up

823
00:44:33,320 --> 00:44:35,719
Speaker 14: in the air here in New York. There's talk that

824
00:44:35,760 --> 00:44:40,080
Speaker 14: there's a compromise. I think that this particular district will

825
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:43,560
Speaker 14: end up being, if not safe, I think this will

826
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 14: be a lean Democratic district, and Tom Swase is going

827
00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:51,759
Speaker 14: to look pretty secure more than likely New York State Democrats.

828
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:54,920
Speaker 14: The excuse me, Republicans are interested in holding some of

829
00:44:54,920 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 14: these other seats are going to look through the other

830
00:44:57,080 --> 00:44:59,719
Speaker 14: couple of districts on Long Island as well as the

831
00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:03,120
Speaker 14: hut In Valley districts to try to hold those, and

832
00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:06,520
Speaker 14: probably you're going to end up conceding districtor Mazi Pillip

833
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:08,520
Speaker 14: has said she's going to run. There could be a

834
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:10,879
Speaker 14: couple of other Republicans who are going to throw their

835
00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:13,440
Speaker 14: hat in, But right now New York three looks like

836
00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:15,040
Speaker 14: it's Tom Swazi's to hold.

837
00:45:16,440 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 5: I've only got a minute left on I don't want

838
00:45:17,960 --> 00:45:19,440
Speaker 5: to set you up here, but I wonder if you

839
00:45:19,480 --> 00:45:22,759
Speaker 5: buy the Bellweather talk this morning, the extent to which

840
00:45:22,800 --> 00:45:25,600
Speaker 5: New York three is unique or something we can read

841
00:45:25,640 --> 00:45:27,080
Speaker 5: into nationally.

842
00:45:27,960 --> 00:45:30,520
Speaker 14: Again, I don't think we can help ourselves we're going

843
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:32,840
Speaker 14: to read into it. But it was a special election,

844
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:36,239
Speaker 14: had a slightly more than twenty five percent turnout. These

845
00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:39,360
Speaker 14: are the most engaged voters. Democrats have been doing well

846
00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:44,200
Speaker 14: in these special elections. But as far as a bell Weather,

847
00:45:44,520 --> 00:45:49,360
Speaker 14: it's something to look at. It doesn't necessarily foreshadow exactly

848
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:51,719
Speaker 14: what's going to happen, because as you know, there's going

849
00:45:51,800 --> 00:45:53,520
Speaker 14: to be one thousand and one things that are going

850
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:56,920
Speaker 14: to happen between now and November, and Donald Trump and

851
00:45:57,000 --> 00:45:59,520
Speaker 14: Joe Biden will be on the ballot, then not only

852
00:45:59,560 --> 00:46:01,800
Speaker 14: Tom swat Now.

853
00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:03,920
Speaker 5: Keep that in mind when you hear TALKO Bellweather throughout

854
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 5: the day, because Don knows what he's talking about.

855
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:07,279
Speaker 8: Really glad you can come back and talk to his.

856
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 5: Don Levy is director of the Siena College Research Institute,

857
00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:12,600
Speaker 5: the man who called the race for us last week.

858
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:18,440
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

859
00:46:18,440 --> 00:46:21,400
Speaker 5: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

860
00:46:21,520 --> 00:46:24,080
Speaker 5: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

861
00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:27,400
Speaker 5: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

862
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:29,120
Speaker 5: at Bloomberg dot com.