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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 3: dot com.

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Speaker 1: We're very excited now to be joined by Dan Colwell.

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Speaker 3: He is a former Pentagon senior advisor, recently worked under

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Speaker 3: Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and the Trump administration, longtime foreign

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Speaker 3: policy analyst in the United States Marine.

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Speaker 1: I think the last one most important title there for you.

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Speaker 3: But Dan, one of the reasons we wanted to talk

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Speaker 3: to you is we've covered your story extensively here on

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Speaker 3: the show. The story really of the ousting of you

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Speaker 3: and really a target on both your back and others

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Speaker 3: who are inside the administration, people who it's spoken out

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Speaker 3: vocally for a restraint in US foreign policy. And Dan

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Speaker 3: is somebody who literally worked you for this most recent administration.

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Speaker 3: Perhaps you could give us some insight into some of

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Speaker 3: the things that happened here. Let's start with D one,

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Speaker 3: please and put it up there on the screen. It

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Speaker 3: does now appear, Dan, that many of the US diplomatic

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Speaker 3: efforts by Steve Wikoff and others served as cover for

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Speaker 3: this Israeli surprised attack on Iran. Now, giving your experience

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Speaker 3: and some of your insight, you know, without getting into

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Speaker 3: classified information, what's your assessment of what really went on

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Speaker 3: inside here, now that you know all the principal players.

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Speaker 4: So I do think that at the end of the day,

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Speaker 4: that diplomacy was and still is the primary goal. Is

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Speaker 4: that ultimately the President believes that the only way to

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Speaker 4: solve this is primarily, I say, solved this permanently. Solve

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Speaker 4: this is through a diplomatic effort, because, as a lot

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Speaker 4: of people pointed out, a military solution, even using all

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Speaker 4: the power of America's bomber fleet, naval assets and combined

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Speaker 4: with Israelis, will not permanently dismantle the Iranian nuclear program.

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Speaker 3: Well, can I zero in on that because you saw

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Speaker 3: these warplans, all right, and you don't have to get

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Speaker 3: into that, but you're somebody who actually sat there at

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Speaker 3: the desk. So is that what you're saying, you know,

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Speaker 3: given your knowledge, is that this is not something that

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Speaker 3: can be solved by the United States of America.

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Speaker 4: Well, don't take it from me. I mean the Israelis

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Speaker 4: have said this as well too. Now there is a

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Speaker 4: caveat to this is you could militarily occupy Iran. You

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Speaker 4: could do another regime change war, another long term occupation

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Speaker 4: of Iran, and that is the way that you would

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Speaker 4: truly permanently dismantle Iran's nuclear program. Now, let's be honest,

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Speaker 4: that'd be incredibly costly. It would make Iraq and Afghanistan

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Speaker 4: and what we've been doing in Syria and in other

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Speaker 4: countries look like a cakewalk. Iran is a significantly larger country.

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Speaker 4: It is a more militarized country with a much more

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Speaker 4: advanced military, and a lot of people are focused on

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Speaker 4: like their their higher end conventional capabilities.

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Speaker 1: But they also have a very strong militia force.

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Speaker 4: They have a regular militia force called the Bachi and

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Speaker 4: they are are really truly a garrison state, and that

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Speaker 4: would be incredibly difficult occupation. So getting back to what

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Speaker 4: President Trump was looking at doing, is I truly believe

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Speaker 4: that that a lot of this stuff about oh this

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Speaker 4: is a cover, I have to say, I think is

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Speaker 4: misinformation interesting and I think that that it was primarily

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Speaker 4: and there were others that disagreed in the administration, is

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Speaker 4: that the president really wanted to prioritize the diplomatic option.

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Speaker 4: Now I'm not in the administration anymore. I don't know

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Speaker 4: what has gone on in the past couple of weeks

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Speaker 4: for sure, but diplomacy was always the thing that he

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Speaker 4: wanted to prioritize, and based on his remarks, I still

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Speaker 4: think he wants to pursue diplomatic outcome.

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Speaker 2: Cost So it's your belief that he was effectively double

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Speaker 2: cross and betrayed by the Israelis here who because I mean,

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Speaker 2: the reason that these strikes happened on, you know, after

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Speaker 2: the sixty day deadline that President Trump had implemented. It

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Speaker 2: happened on day sixty one, something that he, by the way,

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Speaker 2: you know, highlighted and celebrated in the aftermath.

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Speaker 5: Of these attacks very clearly.

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Speaker 2: The timing of these was to blow up any possibility

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Speaker 2: of a diplomatic solution, which is something the Israelis are

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Speaker 2: not interested in. So you're telling me your belief is

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Speaker 2: that President Trump was effectively betrayed his diplomatic negotiations undercut

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Speaker 2: by the Israelis, or do you think that he bought

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Speaker 2: into this? What I think is proposter You can give

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Speaker 2: your opinion, an expert opinion on it. Preposterous belief that

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Speaker 2: somehow going to war with Iran was going to make

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Speaker 2: it easier to effectuate some sort of a peaceful diplomatic solution.

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Speaker 4: So, Crystal, this is a cop out. A lot of

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Speaker 4: my assumptions over the last week have been blown up.

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Speaker 4: I can't answer that that question with absolute certainty. What

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Speaker 4: I can tell you from my experience inside the administration

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Speaker 4: and what I know of the people in the administration

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Speaker 4: is that diplomacy was what they wanted to pursue. So

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Speaker 4: you had guys like Steve Whitcoff, you had people like

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Speaker 4: Michael Anton.

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Speaker 1: You had a lot of folks across.

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Speaker 4: The administration that were putting a lot of effort and

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Speaker 4: trying to come up with ideas on how to make

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Speaker 4: diplomacy work. Did it was it always perfect. Were they

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Speaker 4: always doing the right thing? These are always incredibly difficult

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Speaker 4: things to pull off. I think that if we look back,

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Speaker 4: there are maybe things that could be done better. And

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Speaker 4: I think to your point, it's going forward, Yes, I

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Speaker 4: think you have todmit is that in the short term,

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Speaker 4: diplomacy is going to be incredibly difficult. It's going to

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Speaker 4: take a lot of things to come back from what

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Speaker 4: has happened over.

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Speaker 1: The last few days. Right, So this is where I

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Speaker 1: want to get to.

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Speaker 3: Then, because you tell you name some of the pro

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Speaker 3: diplomatic factions, you don't have to get into names if

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Speaker 3: you don't want to, but just arrived for us. What

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Speaker 3: the other faction inside perhaps the administration and in Washington

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Speaker 3: appears to be that obviously is now backing Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: behind this action and really is both loving celebrating the

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Speaker 3: Israeli military campaign and actively working to put the United

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Speaker 3: States into this conflict.

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Speaker 1: What does that faction look like and where are they located?

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Speaker 1: Well within the administration.

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Speaker 4: I know what one observation I've had is and I

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Speaker 4: didn't work in the first administration.

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Speaker 1: I worked a lot with.

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Speaker 4: Them on the outside, mainly on reforming the VA, and

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Speaker 4: then towards the end on ending endless wars.

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Speaker 1: What I saw on the first administration.

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Speaker 4: Was is you had most of the people in the administration,

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Speaker 4: particularly the national security side, dislike the president and we're

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Speaker 4: oftentimes working against him.

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Speaker 1: This time you don't have that.

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Speaker 4: Is you have a lot of truly smart and talented

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Speaker 4: people across the inner Agency, a lot of great people

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Speaker 4: at the Pentagon, especially on Bridge Colby's policy team. You

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Speaker 4: have great service secretaries. I think the Deputy Secretary Steve

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Speaker 4: Feinberg is doing a great job. And as State's Department,

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Speaker 4: similar you have people like Michael Anton. And you have

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Speaker 4: a lot of great people in the Vice President's office,

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Speaker 4: at OD and I and at the NSC, and they

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Speaker 4: all largely I mean, they have disagreements over the issues,

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Speaker 4: but their attitude is this is they have their views.

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Speaker 4: They are going to make recommendations to the president based

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Speaker 4: on their analysis of intelligence on the DoD side of

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Speaker 4: the trade offs to accomplish certain military options, and they're

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Speaker 4: going to make those recommendations. They're going to run them

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Speaker 4: up up the chain, and from there the President and

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Speaker 4: the principles are going to debate and decide. Now within

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Speaker 4: the administration, I think that most of the of the administration,

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Speaker 4: the political appointees, understand that there's a lot of danger.

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Speaker 1: With a war in Iran. Not everyone, but most folks do.

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Speaker 4: I think there are a lot of folks in the

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Speaker 4: uniform military that actually think that a war with Iran

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Speaker 4: would be disastrous. But there are folks that still are

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Speaker 4: under this delusion that all we have to do is

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Speaker 4: send if you be, two bombers in and drop a

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Speaker 4: couple massive ordinance penetrators on four to oh and everything

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Speaker 4: will be fine. And there's a lot of people outside

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Speaker 4: the administration, in the think tank community, in Congress, in

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Speaker 4: the advocacy space, and the media that are still bought

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Speaker 4: into this idea that this is largely a risk free proposition.

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Speaker 4: And let me tell you, if the United States gets

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Speaker 4: directly involved, there's a risk that it could be one

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Speaker 4: of the biggest national security catastrophes we've seen over the

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Speaker 4: last twenty thirty.

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Speaker 1: Let's stick with that. So let's put d two guys

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Speaker 1: please up on the screen. Here.

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Speaker 3: We have a recent report, as you just mentioned, somebody

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Speaker 3: Elberge Colebrie, somebody who I consider a friend and a

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Speaker 3: very very intelligent person. The headline here is Pentagon is

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Speaker 3: split over Trump's Israel policy, but specifically Dan, what they

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Speaker 3: are talking about is a war inside of the administration

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Speaker 3: here between the Sentcom Commander, General Michael Carilla and Elbridge Colby,

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Speaker 3: who is the what is he the Undersecretary Defense for policies,

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Speaker 3: who I mean has the audacity to suggest, Hey, we

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Speaker 3: need to be careful with our military resources here. A

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Speaker 3: war with Iran or offensive military action against Iran in

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Speaker 3: conjunction with Israel would significantly deplete our stocks and it

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Speaker 3: could make us very unprepared for a conflict that actually matters.

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Speaker 1: Describe the contours of this general.

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Speaker 3: The Sencom Commander, General Carilla, who is both Sencom is

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Speaker 3: under his environment. He is scheduled, I think to you know,

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Speaker 3: his term be over soon. But he is the top

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Speaker 3: military commander here obviously has the ears of the Secretary

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Speaker 3: Defense and the President in this theater.

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Speaker 1: What are his views here of the conflict?

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Speaker 4: Well, first of all, I just want to say regarding

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Speaker 4: Bridge and his team, you know, my friends Mike Dimono

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Speaker 4: and others.

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Speaker 1: They're doing their jobs.

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Speaker 4: Their jobs is to challenge what the combatant commanders want

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Speaker 4: to do. It is their job since the combatant commanders

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Speaker 4: are very focused on the regions they control.

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Speaker 1: Their AORs is what they're called.

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Speaker 4: Their job is to look at the global picture in

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Speaker 4: assess the trade offs, the support what various.

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Speaker 1: Combatant commanders want to do.

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Speaker 4: So we're in an environment where the United States's military

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Speaker 4: resources are constrained. We've had twenty years of plus of

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Speaker 4: wars in the Middle East. We have emptied many of

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Speaker 4: our magazines of ammunition in our arsenals to support Ukraine.

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Speaker 4: Is we have an environment where our resources are not limitless, so.

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Speaker 1: Trade offs are real.

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Speaker 4: So every asset we move into centcom comes at the

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Speaker 4: expense of another combatant command, like the Indo Pacific, where

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Speaker 4: we have a real threat, a real challenge in China,

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Speaker 4: we trade off against things we're trying to do in

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Speaker 4: the Western hemisphere.

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Speaker 1: I think one thing.

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Speaker 4: This administration deserves a lot of credit for is more

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Speaker 4: of a Western hemispheric focus. So Bridge is doing what

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Speaker 4: he's supposed to do. And also say this, knowing Bridge

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Speaker 4: and Mike and the rest of the team there is

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Speaker 4: they're going to challenge, which is healthy and good. They're

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Speaker 4: going to make a recommendation. But the end of the day,

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Speaker 4: when the Secretary of Defense and the president makes a decision,

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Speaker 4: they're going to turn around and follow it and insurance

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Speaker 4: implement in it properly. Now, in regards to General Gorilla, look,

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Speaker 4: I mean, I think it's it's been reported, and I

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Speaker 4: you know, based on my experience with him, is that

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Speaker 4: he takes a fundamentally different view of the importance of

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Speaker 4: the Middle East than a lot of other people in

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Speaker 4: the administration. And he also, I think, believes that a

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Speaker 4: military campaign against Iran will not be as costly as others.

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Speaker 4: So he that's his view, and I think there are

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Speaker 4: a lot of folks that want to see some type

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Speaker 4: of military action occur before he retires as a result

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Speaker 4: of that. So he retires, to believe, in the middle

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Speaker 4: of July. And I don't think it's a coincidence. You

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Speaker 4: see a lot of the pressure ramping up to do

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Speaker 4: something prior to his retirement, got it.

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Speaker 2: So, just back in March, Director of National Intelligence Toulsey

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Speaker 2: Gabbard testified that the intelligence community continues to assess Oron

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Speaker 2: is not building a nuclear weapon. Let's go ahead and

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Speaker 2: take a listen, just a little flashback to her testimony

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Speaker 2: to this regard.

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Speaker 6: The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building

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Speaker 6: a nuclear weapon, and Supreme Leader Kamani has not authorized

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Speaker 6: the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in two thousand

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Speaker 6: and three. The IC continues to monitor closely if Tehran

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Speaker 6: decides to reauthorize its nuclear weapons program.

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Speaker 2: What is your understanding of the current situation, because obviously,

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Speaker 2: I mean, we've covered all the comments now about how

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Speaker 2: the real goal for bb Dtyahu and others who are

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Speaker 2: supportive of this direction and policy, what their real goal

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Speaker 2: is here is regime change. But the nuclear program is

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Speaker 2: being used as the pretext and justification for these strikes.

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Speaker 2: So what can you tell us about Iranian nuclear development?

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Speaker 4: So I obviously can't get in specific intelligence and what

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Speaker 4: was discussed and what I saw or didn't see, But

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Speaker 4: my understanding was that that assessment was correct and was

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Speaker 4: largely agreed to across the intelligence community. What it was

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Speaker 4: the CIA military intelligence community, with the State Department have

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Speaker 4: and the State Department actually has a very good intelligence branch,

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Speaker 4: one of the best. Actually, they've been more right than

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Speaker 4: the rest of the ICEE. It's called iron r that

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Speaker 4: that has been the consensus for a while now, and

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Speaker 4: one of the reasons actually that is the consensus is

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Speaker 4: based on Iranian behavior. Is I think this often gets overlooked,

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Speaker 4: but I believe it was Komane before he died, had

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Speaker 4: a flatois against developing a nuclear weapon, and that hasn't

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Speaker 4: been repealed. Yes, that was an indicator that a lot

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Speaker 4: of people were watching that. If they repealed that, like okay,

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Speaker 4: now they're going to sprint towards bomb. And I'd also

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Speaker 4: know too, is that it's not a matter of they

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Speaker 4: can just snap their fingers and in a day they

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Speaker 4: could have a bomb. There's still a breakout time and window,

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Speaker 4: and then it takes more time to actually weaponize this.

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Speaker 4: But again, from what I know, and I've been out

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Speaker 4: of loop now for you know, close to two months,

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Speaker 4: is that that assessment still stands well.

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Speaker 3: One thing I look at and is even in Bev's

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Speaker 3: announcement of the war, the shortest timeline he gives for

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Speaker 3: a breakout is a few months. If this is not

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Speaker 3: a you know, a couple of day things. That's basically aligns.

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Speaker 5: With hearing since the ninety Yeah, of course we've been

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Speaker 5: hearing there.

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Speaker 3: Even if that's bs, he doesn't even say they're days

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Speaker 3: away from a nuclear weapon.

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Speaker 1: He's like or a few months away from a nuclear weapon.

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Speaker 3: It's like, well, okay, so we had a deal tomorrow

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Speaker 3: to have a talk.

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Speaker 1: We can't do that.

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Speaker 5: You know.

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Speaker 3: It's like one of those where it's just extraordinary and really,

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Speaker 3: what I want to get at with you, Dan, is

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Speaker 3: is within this administration at this point. You know, if

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Speaker 3: they go forward with this, and of course it'll look

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Speaker 3: they'll try to minimize it. You said, we just got

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Speaker 3: to do a B two. What does it look like

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Speaker 3: from there? You know, the B two that's step one.

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Speaker 3: So now what you know, if we see the straits

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Speaker 3: and war moves get close and all this, what how

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Speaker 3: many resources of the United States is would it take

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Speaker 3: even from that point of a so called limited intervention.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think it's I think we need to start

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Speaker 4: with what is the war right now? And as we

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Speaker 4: sit here today, and there's a lot of things changing,

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Speaker 4: and it could change, you know, very rapidly in the

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Speaker 4: next minutes or hours, But right now, essentially the war

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Speaker 4: is a race. It is a race between Iran and

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Speaker 4: Israel to see who can destroy the other side's critical

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Speaker 4: military equipment the fastest and exhaust the other size supply

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Speaker 4: of critical munitions. So for Israel, that is Iran's ballistic missiles,

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Speaker 4: but also their ballistic missile launchers. That's really actually probably

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Speaker 4: more important than missiles themselves, and that's why Israeli Air

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Speaker 4: Force it appears to really start to focus on those

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Speaker 4: in the last days. For the Iranians, they are trying

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Speaker 4: to exhaust the supply of the United States's FAD batteries

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Speaker 4: they have there, and then Israel's very good integrated missile defense.

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Speaker 4: They're trying to exhaust the supply of their missile interceptors

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Speaker 4: while simultaneously trying to outlast Israel's supply of precision munitions,

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Speaker 4: particularly their standoff munitions. So in terms of that race,

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Speaker 4: who has the advantage right now, it's hard to say.

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Speaker 4: It looks like the Israelis did a really spectacular set

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Speaker 4: of strikes the first day. They destroyed a lot of

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Speaker 4: the Iranians command. They did hit some key sites. But

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Speaker 4: Israel doesn't have the size, or doesn't have enough planes

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Speaker 4: and the ability to basically attack the Iranian military on

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Speaker 4: a scale that it would destroy their offensive capability in

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Speaker 4: one day. So Iran as we sit here today still

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Speaker 4: has a lot of offensive capability. On the other hand,

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Speaker 4: Iran has not launched as many missiles as we thought

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Speaker 4: they were, but more Iranian missiles seem to be breaking

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Speaker 4: through as the barrages continue on.

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Speaker 5: So what would that indicate to you?

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Speaker 4: That indicates to me that that Israel and the United

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Speaker 4: States are rash either rationing their interceptors knowing they have

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Speaker 4: a limited supply, or the Iranians are learning and learning

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Speaker 4: how to launch their missiles in a way that they

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Speaker 4: can break through defenses. Now getting back to your question

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Speaker 4: of like, what does this mean for the United States, Well, again,

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Speaker 4: the United States is in a resource constrained environment. Our

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Speaker 4: ability to fight a prolonged war against the Iranians is

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Speaker 4: very limited and would come at very high trade offs.

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Speaker 4: So what would it look like, say, if there is

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Speaker 4: an authorization to use the b twos to strike Foordo. Well,

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Speaker 4: I think that from there, iran would feel like the

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Speaker 4: United States is now directly engaged in the war, not

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Speaker 4: just indirectly through defensive and they would feel like, now

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Speaker 4: we have to strike American forces in the region. And

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Speaker 4: this is where the casualty figures come from. And this

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Speaker 4: is where I think some people get dishonest because they say, oh,

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Speaker 4: nobody's talking about boots on the ground. Well, we have

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Speaker 4: forty thousand troops spread across the Middle East, all of

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Speaker 4: whom are in striking range of Iranian ballistic missiles, and

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Speaker 4: I have to say many of them are on bases

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Speaker 4: that don't have the same layered defenses that most Israeli

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Speaker 4: cities have. So you could have a situation where the

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Speaker 4: Iranians are launching mass drone, mass missile attacks on these

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Speaker 4: bases and can inflict heavy casualties on the United States.

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Speaker 4: So what happens from there? The people who've been saying,

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Speaker 4: you know, oh, we just got to let Israel do

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Speaker 4: what they want to do and they don't need our

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Speaker 4: help to then now a couple of days later is like,

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Speaker 4: the American needs to get involved and we need to

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Speaker 4: have b two strikes on photo. Those same people are

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Speaker 4: going to call for escalation. If the United States escalates,

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Speaker 4: there's gonna be more attacks. They could start attacking our

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Speaker 4: golf Arab partners and allies, and then from there you

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Speaker 4: have the straits of horror moves potentially closed. You have

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Speaker 4: attacks on energy infrastructure. Energy prices spike.

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Speaker 5: Straight up from its is what of energy?

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Speaker 1: I believe it's.

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Speaker 3: But it's a huge portion of China. Actually, so then

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Speaker 3: they might need to get involved.

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Speaker 4: Yes, and that they may look at the need, they

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Speaker 4: may look at what's happening in golf and say, okay,

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Speaker 4: now it's the time make a move against Taiwan. I'm

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Speaker 4: a little less confident than that, but that is a possibility.

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Speaker 4: So you'll have massive energy spikes here in the United States,

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Speaker 4: which could upset the progress that the President Trump is

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Speaker 4: made on reducing inflation. You'll have thousands, potentially thousands of

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Speaker 4: dead American soldiers, diplomats and other civilians. And let's not

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Speaker 4: forget too, you will have a lot of dead Arabs,

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Speaker 4: dead Iranians, and yes, dead Israelis. You know it is

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Speaker 4: Israeli civilians, Iranian civilians that are paying most of the

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Speaker 4: price for this war. Right now, we can't forget it.

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Speaker 4: You know, I was reading coming in here today, it

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Speaker 4: looks like that many of the casualties last night from

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Speaker 4: the Iranian nuclear strike were Ukrainians. That they were probably

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Speaker 4: Ukrainian refugees, Ukrainian Jews fleeing the war in Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: And I don't know that for sure, but Tel Avisi, yes,

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Speaker 1: and that's.

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Speaker 4: You know, those are the people paying the price in

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Speaker 4: that and it really upsets me that people are minimizing

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Speaker 4: this on both sides and ignoring that. And this is

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Speaker 4: where it had It's just not a video game. We

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Speaker 4: don't have a magic power where it's just a matter

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Speaker 4: of a few B two strikes and a few cruise

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Speaker 4: missiles and this problem is solved. There is real risk

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Speaker 4: that this could escalate into something much much worse.

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Speaker 5: And Dan, let me ask you one more question on that.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we saw, you know, our intervention in Libya

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Speaker 2: which ends up in that country being a failed state.

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Speaker 5: Let's say that BBNT Yahu.

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Speaker 2: And others get their wish and this regime in Iran

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Speaker 2: effectively collapses.

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Speaker 5: You know what is the fallout?

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Speaker 2: What does it look like if you have this giant,

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Speaker 2: incredibly significant country as effectively a failed state.

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Speaker 4: Well, my friend Sara Bamari actually wrote a We're gonna

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Speaker 4: have the show on Thursday. Yeah, really great Twitter posts

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Speaker 4: about this, and Sarah b I think is really interesting

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Speaker 4: because he used to be a regime change advocate and yes,

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Speaker 4: reassessed his views and he walked through I think very effectively.

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Speaker 4: Of what that would mean is you know, it mean

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Speaker 4: that the United States would have to get more involved

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Speaker 4: in Middle East when we're trying to do less and

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Speaker 4: power allies to do more, including Israel alongside the Gulf Arabs.

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Speaker 4: It would mean probably higher energy prices for at least

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Speaker 4: a short term before global markets could adjust. And you know,

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Speaker 4: you could have an actual true nuclear threat here because

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Speaker 4: you could have bad actors outside of the Iranian regime

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Speaker 4: get a hold of these nuclear material and build something

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Speaker 4: like a dirty bomb and so and they Iran has

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Speaker 4: other WMDs, They likely have chemical weapons that could fall

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Speaker 4: in the wrong hands. So it's a huge threat. The

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Speaker 4: Iranian regime is awful, one of the worst on the planet,

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Speaker 4: but they are still a regime that has shown that

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Speaker 4: they have not provided these weapons to some of the

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Speaker 4: bad proxies in the region. Yet that could change if

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Speaker 4: the war drags on and they have not done certain

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Speaker 4: things that you would expect a totally irrational regime to

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Speaker 4: do correct. And we just simply don't know what would

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Speaker 4: replace this regime, and that is one of the big

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Speaker 4: things and problems with through theme change.

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Speaker 2: One last question for you. You know, by all accounts,

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Speaker 2: it seems the Iranians were engaged in diplomatic negotiations with

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Speaker 2: the Trump administration and good faith. Of course, they had

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Speaker 2: previously engaged with the Obama administration and in good faith

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Speaker 2: and were able to secure a deal that the first

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Speaker 2: Trump administration got down of and the Biden administration declined.

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Speaker 5: To get back into.

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Speaker 2: You know, it seems to me like, if you're, you know,

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Speaker 2: as a layman here looking at the Iranian calculation, this

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00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:32,040
Speaker 2: has created additional incentives for them to accelerate towards acquiring

440
00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 2: nuclear weapons. I mean as an expert, you know, is

441
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:37,560
Speaker 2: that your assessment too of the sort of calculus that

442
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 2: has been created, not just with regard to what we've

443
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 2: did with Iran, you know, basically lying about diplomatic negotiations

444
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:45,399
Speaker 2: to create the conditions for an Israeli surprise attack, but

445
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:48,240
Speaker 2: with regards to Libya, with regard to other countries around

446
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:50,600
Speaker 2: the way of Ukraine. You know, is that the sort

447
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 2: of calculus that our foreign policy has created for countries?

448
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 4: Well, I'm far from an expert on this. I'm just

449
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 4: have the privilege of knowing a lot of really smart

450
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:02,880
Speaker 4: people whose ideas I can steal. I think, yes, there

451
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 4: is an incentive now for the Iranians to actually break

452
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:08,720
Speaker 4: out and pursue nuclear weapon before and Crystal.

453
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 1: You kind of alluded to this earlier.

454
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:16,480
Speaker 4: I think that for the Iranians, you know, they want

455
00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:19,400
Speaker 4: to have the appearance that they could break out. They

456
00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 4: want to preserve some type of capability, in large part

457
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 4: because of what happened in Libya, because of what happened

458
00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:28,359
Speaker 4: in Iraq and recently Syria as well too. It hasn't

459
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:33,760
Speaker 4: appened in North Korea, but for them, the nuclear weapon

460
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:37,479
Speaker 4: threat is more of a bargaining chip for things like

461
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 4: sanctions relief, better integration in the region. And really the

462
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 4: biggest guaranteurs their national survival are things like their missile program,

463
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:51,120
Speaker 4: which for them is very important because of their experience

464
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 4: in the Ran Iraq War where they were really brutalized

465
00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:57,680
Speaker 4: by Saddam's scud missiles as duple have bombers. So that's

466
00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 4: more important for their their regime and national survival than

467
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:08,160
Speaker 4: a theoretical nuclear weapon. But look, if the United States

468
00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:11,600
Speaker 4: is perceived as not being able to negotiate in good

469
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 4: faith along with the Europeans, if there's a belief that

470
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 4: other actors in the region are going to undermine it,

471
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 4: then they just might make the decision like, Okay, we're

472
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:22,600
Speaker 4: going to be the Middle East North Korea in a

473
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,600
Speaker 4: lot of ways they already are. We're going to you know,

474
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:29,680
Speaker 4: break out and basically become a massive hermit kingdom, and

475
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:32,560
Speaker 4: that's the only way we're going to be able to survive.

476
00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 1: As a nation.

477
00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, and that's a terrifying lesson because that actually did

478
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 3: work for North Korea and they work out.

479
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 1: They're still there.

480
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 3: And every time I've talked with multiple people on the

481
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:43,880
Speaker 3: negotiating team with the DPRK, every single time we told

482
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:45,919
Speaker 3: them to denuclearize, they're like, yeah, how they work out

483
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:48,159
Speaker 3: for Gaddafi? They know they're not stupid.

484
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:51,919
Speaker 4: It's funny. It's not a coincidence that in the middle

485
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:56,120
Speaker 4: of the negotiations, where where President Trump was making progress

486
00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:58,359
Speaker 4: and he deserves a lot of credit for taking the

487
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 4: steps he did, It's not a coinsays John Bolton came

488
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 4: out and started talking about Libya. Yeah, that was a

489
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 4: deliberate attempt to undermine his negotiation. I will say this

490
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:12,359
Speaker 4: time around, I think among his political pointees, you don't

491
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:16,720
Speaker 4: have people like that that would go and ultimately try

492
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 4: and undermine negotiation if it reaches a point at that point.

493
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:24,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, but yeah, if you if you do.

494
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:27,919
Speaker 4: But again, I have to acknowledge that it is going

495
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,199
Speaker 4: to be tough to get negotiations back on track, but

496
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 4: there is there is still a pathway for that. It's

497
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,639
Speaker 4: going to take more time, and the biggest thing administration

498
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:39,920
Speaker 4: is going to have to show on that is patience. Yes,

499
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 4: well said.

500
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:42,040
Speaker 1: Dan, I really appreciate it.

501
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 5: Dan, thank you so much. I appreciate you talking.

502
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 1: To you very much. So all right, we're going to

503
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:45,960
Speaker 1: go to the next part.

504
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 2: Some interesting reaction from MAGA world to our encouragement and

505
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 2: involvement in Israel's attacks and war with Iran. Steve Bannon,

506
00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:01,680
Speaker 2: who has been obviously very opposed to us getting involved

507
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 2: in this way, I had a lot to say. Let's

508
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 2: go ahead and take a listen to a little of that.

509
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 7: You either got it. If you're gonna go alone, you

510
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:08,440
Speaker 7: got you can take care of your deal or not.

511
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:12,439
Speaker 7: You don't need us. Decide to go alone, decide to

512
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:14,119
Speaker 7: reject it. Now, we don't need you. We're gonna go

513
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 7: to Loan and the goat alone last about six hours.

514
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:20,400
Speaker 7: Not only do they want to defense, they want us

515
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 7: to go on offense. But don't set it up that

516
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 7: we're gonna get wrapped up in this thing in the

517
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,480
Speaker 7: first day, and now people want us go on offense

518
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 7: into bombing runs on this and Mike Pompeo, Mike Pompeio

519
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 7: sitting there, go everybody in the golf Regent's so excited.

520
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 7: Is that your paymasters and cutter Pompeo that you took

521
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:41,560
Speaker 7: the money from, Is that your paymasters and cutter are

522
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:45,119
Speaker 7: telling you this. What I know is that we weren't

523
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,720
Speaker 7: asked to come. You know this, People went on this

524
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 7: by themselves. They made a conscious decision to do it themselves.

525
00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 7: And if you want to do it yourselves, then do

526
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:55,640
Speaker 7: it yourselves. All of a sudden, we got to come

527
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:59,199
Speaker 7: in and defend that and what planet. And I'm not

528
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 7: worried people say it's going to tear a Maga apart. No,

529
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 7: is not going to tear maga apart at all.

530
00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 1: We need, we may have.

531
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 7: Needed to do this to decide who's really America for

532
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 7: us and who's still a neocon? Who's still a Neocon?

533
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 7: And if I'm hurting your feelings, I'm sorry your feelings

534
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:22,639
Speaker 7: going to have to get hurt. All of you burmers

535
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 7: skipping around right now?

536
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:26,399
Speaker 1: What happened in Iraq?

537
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 7: We were lied to what happened in Iraq the law

538
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 7: of undertended consequent weapons that are being used today have

539
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 7: a degree of precision that no one ever dreamt of

540
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 7: in a prior conflict.

541
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 8: The bombing designed to shock Rock's military centered on Baghdad,

542
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:48,159
Speaker 8: but also struck key targets in Mosal are book in

543
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:52,119
Speaker 8: the north, bus in the South. We've especially accomplished our mission.

544
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:54,200
Speaker 1: We did everything that we set out to do. Everybody's

545
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:55,159
Speaker 1: back safe and sound.

546
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 3: All targets are designed to undermine the regime of a

547
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:01,200
Speaker 3: rocky president. Saddam Hussein I had to convince his generals

548
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:02,920
Speaker 3: to turn on him or at least surrender.

549
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:07,120
Speaker 2: So you got Bannon say, we're finding out Steve Bannon, Yeah,

550
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 2: finally we're.

551
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:08,120
Speaker 5: Going to find out.

552
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 2: Who's America first? Who are the neocons? It looks very

553
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,160
Speaker 2: much like Donald Trump is in the neocon camp.

554
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:14,719
Speaker 3: Here's the issue, is this whole America first thing. It

555
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 3: actually gets to the next part. I've been wanting to

556
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:17,879
Speaker 3: go off on this. Le's put it up there on

557
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 3: the screen. Trump says, quote, I decide what America first means.

558
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 3: For those two people who say they want peace, you

559
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:27,439
Speaker 3: can't have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapons. So

560
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:29,680
Speaker 3: for all of those wondering, wonderful people who don't want

561
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 3: anything to do about Iran having a nuclear weapon, that's

562
00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:35,240
Speaker 3: not peace. But really it's the hubris of so much bullship.

563
00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 3: Decide what America First means. And actually, this is a

564
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:42,200
Speaker 3: key test there. Dave made a prediction I didn't want

565
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 3: to get into it at the time where he was like,

566
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 3: Maga is going to turn on Trump.

567
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 1: I'm like, no, I don't think so.

568
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 3: Actually, and look, I mean, where's the truth is that

569
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:53,600
Speaker 3: the vast majority of the American people are propagandaed to

570
00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 3: an insane degree on war.

571
00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 1: Let's look back to two thousand and three.

572
00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 3: The propaganda worked, Okay, America did not on the Iraq

573
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:03,720
Speaker 3: war since mid two thousand and five, until people were

574
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 3: dying in the streets and the Basra Mosque and all that.

575
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:07,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're going on.

576
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 2: Those of us who are applaced to from the beginning

577
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 2: were considered.

578
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 1: Traitors, trators.

579
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 3: Okay, it took years for this to happen, and similar here.

580
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 3: I mean, look, it is factually incorrect. America First is

581
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:20,960
Speaker 3: a movement that goes back all the way to the

582
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 3: nineteen twenties. It is literally not invented by Trump, but

583
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:27,440
Speaker 3: operationally it is, let's be honest, and that's part of

584
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 3: why everyone's like, oh, we get to decide what's true.

585
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 1: There's no such thing, okay.

586
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 3: And this also gets to the whole idea of like

587
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 3: Trump is pro war or pro peace.

588
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 1: It's like he's neither.

589
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:39,800
Speaker 3: He is just this manipulatable figure and there are factions

590
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 3: within his movement and his coalition, some of which is

591
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 3: varying on top or not, and Trump at different times

592
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 3: gets to go along. His kind of mor or a morphousness,

593
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 3: is actually a strength because it kind of convinces both

594
00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 3: sides that he is one of them. He both convinced

595
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 3: the pro Israel neocons and the anti war people at

596
00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 3: least libertarians like Dave Smith on our show, to vote

597
00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 3: for him. Right, That's actual political strength in politics. But

598
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 3: now you know, whenever it comes down to it, what

599
00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 3: he's really telling us is he's the person who decides

600
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 3: because all of his political information says they will follow me.

601
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 1: I think he's right.

602
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:15,240
Speaker 3: And Steve Bannon in a way into its how correct

603
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 3: that is by saying to all you boomers switching around

604
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 3: on cable news, like you are being sold alive. But

605
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 3: I don't know if that's enough to remind them, because

606
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 3: the force of the propaganda is immense. I mean, I

607
00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:33,560
Speaker 3: watch CNN and I see a former IDF spokesperson who is.

608
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 1: Analyzing the war.

609
00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:39,960
Speaker 3: I see Scott Jennings, mister Maga in a fucking bunker

610
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 3: in Jerusalem telling Trump to go and bomb Iran. Mister

611
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 3: Maga on CNA. That's CNN, not to mention Fox. I

612
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 3: go on Fox. I see one segment of a guy

613
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 3: being like, hey, it's not such a good idea from

614
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 3: my friends over at the American Conservative Nine out of

615
00:30:56,040 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 3: ten gases. All these former generals, former Bush guys are Fleischer,

616
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 3: the guy who you know, was the press secretary during

617
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 3: the war in Iraq. That's who is being mainlined into

618
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:12,480
Speaker 3: their blood. And they've already been, you know, so conditioned

619
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 3: because of the anti anti Semitism campaign of the last

620
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 3: two years to be you know, susceptible to all of

621
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 3: these arguments. I mean, in retrospect, like anti anti Semitism

622
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 3: is the most successful Neo Conservative rehabilitation projects of all time,

623
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 3: all time, because they convinced you know, not only the

624
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 3: United States government, they weaponize the Department of justice and others,

625
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 3: but to literally prosecute basically their political opponents and to

626
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 3: go after you abandon their principles of free speech. But

627
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 3: now on war right, some of us saw at the time,

628
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:44,720
Speaker 3: talked about it here a lot.

629
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 1: But most people were very willing to go along with it.

630
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 5: So well, I don't even you hear from Bannon.

631
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:53,360
Speaker 2: I mean, there's so much, there's so much spin and

632
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 2: cope from people like him who have been vocally opposed

633
00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:00,360
Speaker 2: to a hot war with the run, which again, let's

634
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 2: be clear, we are in today like we are there.

635
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,160
Speaker 5: Donald Trump made the decision, he.

636
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 2: Is the decider at the top of the food chain,

637
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 2: used the negotiations as a ruse to create the conditions

638
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:14,520
Speaker 2: for Israel to launch a surprise attack. Supply the munitions

639
00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 2: provided the defense, like we are in this thing. And

640
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 2: even for him and others who have been vocally critical

641
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 2: of that possible direction, you know, they have to pretend like, oh,

642
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 2: maybe Trump didn't know this was going to happen, and

643
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:32,040
Speaker 2: to not direct fire directly at him and criticize him

644
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 2: directly for his choice to destroy his own diplomatic negotiations

645
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 2: and throw in with the Israelis and their desire for

646
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 2: a regime change war.

647
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 5: I mean, that's where we are.

648
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 2: And so I think you're right, Sager, Like I think

649
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:50,480
Speaker 2: Steve Bannon is a very astute political actor, and he

650
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 2: knows that you can't actually on the right in the

651
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 2: MAGA coalition. You cannot actually directly criticize Donald Trump.

652
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 3: I already know Dave he's going to get Dave earlier

653
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 3: on in O Show, said Trump should be impeached.

654
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't.

655
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 3: Look, I love Dave, and if I was advising him

656
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 3: on his influence in the Republican Party, I feel you

657
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 3: shouldn't do that.

658
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 2: But I don't think he doesn't care about the Republican

659
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 2: But that's the point.

660
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:13,680
Speaker 1: That's what we're dealing with.

661
00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 3: Me and day we don't give a shit, Okay whatever,

662
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 3: I'm just going to say whatever I want. I've burned

663
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 3: all the bridges that I have in Washington. Dave, you know,

664
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:23,440
Speaker 3: he's a guy who says what he thinks. That's great,

665
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 3: But for these people, if you want to preserve your influence,

666
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 3: all it takes is one critical comment of Trump. And

667
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 3: as evidence of that, you look at what Trump says

668
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:32,800
Speaker 3: about Tucker Carl.

669
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,040
Speaker 1: I mean, look, Tucker has been one of the most

670
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:38,960
Speaker 1: vociferous supporters of Trump.

671
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 5: I mean, he has JD.

672
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 1: Vance on the ants on the ticket.

673
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 3: I mean, this guy nobody's taken more bullets for Trump

674
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 3: than Tucker. And when Tucker has the temerity to say

675
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 3: Trump is complicit with Israel's war on Iran, that we

676
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 3: should cut Iran off, Trump immediately disregards and basically hits

677
00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 3: back and says, I'm the person, not you, Tucker. So

678
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 3: it's it's like even just a single critical comment is enough.

679
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 3: And that's the thing, is what did he say, Tucker

680
00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:10,919
Speaker 3: in a newsletter? We can put that, by the way,

681
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 3: E three up on the screen. You know, these are

682
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:17,880
Speaker 3: basic right wing comments. He just says all we have

683
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:19,680
Speaker 3: to do is cut off Israel. He said we should

684
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:21,759
Speaker 3: drop Israel and we should have no involvement in this,

685
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:25,000
Speaker 3: and that Trump is complicit kind of you know, muted.

686
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 3: If you ask me in terms of what should be

687
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:30,479
Speaker 3: called for here in terms of the even that not enough.

688
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 3: And now what do I see this morning, Laura Lumer,

689
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 3: Tucker Carlson is a maga faker. You know they're turning.

690
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 3: You know the machine is working already already, you know,

691
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:44,760
Speaker 3: Mark Levin says, Tucker Carlson is a Katari asset because

692
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:47,879
Speaker 3: why because he interviewed the prime or whatever, the King

693
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 3: of Katar, the Emir of Qatar. So one of these idiots. Actually,

694
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:53,319
Speaker 3: you know, you'll love this. They accused me of being

695
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 3: agent a Qatar. What do you want you want to

696
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:56,880
Speaker 3: tell me what I've been saying about Qatar here for

697
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 3: the last five years. That'd be news to the Katari government,

698
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:01,799
Speaker 3: who hates my guts. But it's one of It's just

699
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 3: it's hilarious. Yeah, Like, well, the way that this all works.

700
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:07,759
Speaker 2: I was taking a look at you know, Marjorie Taylor

701
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:09,960
Speaker 2: Green put out this long post that she's getting like

702
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 2: a lot of credit for for, you know, as being

703
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 2: like anti war, and even the lefties giving her credit

704
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:17,200
Speaker 2: for this. Guess what word doesn't appear in this like

705
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:20,920
Speaker 2: long ass screed once Trump. Yeah, I mean, And that's

706
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:22,960
Speaker 2: the thing. It's like, if you are going to pretend

707
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 2: like the commander in chief, who you know, blew up

708
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 2: his own negotiations to do this for Israel and continues

709
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 2: to shift the weapons and continues to go along and

710
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:34,360
Speaker 2: celebrate the impact, et cetera, you're going to pretend like

711
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 2: he's not involved, like you're just not. No one's going

712
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 2: to give you any credence that lacks any sort of

713
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:45,080
Speaker 2: credibility or honesty. So again, that just shows you these

714
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 2: are political actors. They're responding to their perception correct perception

715
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:52,600
Speaker 2: of the political landscape. And so no, they're not going

716
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 2: to turn on Trump. They'll find some cope, they'll find

717
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 2: some justification, they'll distract with some culture war thing whatever.

718
00:35:57,760 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 2: Try not to talk about it, but yeah, I think

719
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:03,319
Speaker 2: you know, to go back to Dave saying that he

720
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 2: thinks that Trump will lose his coalition over this. I mean,

721
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:08,760
Speaker 2: I do think there are some who were not Trump

722
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:11,840
Speaker 2: fans previously who voted for him this time, who believed,

723
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 2: in my opinion, foolishly. But listen, I'm not here to

724
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:17,319
Speaker 2: like rub people's nose in it that he would be

725
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:19,799
Speaker 2: this anti war candidate or at least would be better

726
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 2: than the alternative. I think there's some percentage, and I

727
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:27,239
Speaker 2: think there's independence, especially who fell into that camp who.

728
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:28,319
Speaker 5: You know will drift away.

729
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 2: We're about to show you Tim Dillon, who was you know,

730
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:33,319
Speaker 2: broadley spportive of Trump in this last election, and you

731
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:35,759
Speaker 2: know he's being very critical at this point as well,

732
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:37,960
Speaker 2: so I'm not going to say there's no one that

733
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:42,200
Speaker 2: he will lose over this, but the broad Republican Party, no,

734
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 2: they're going to be all about it.

735
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:44,920
Speaker 5: They're going to be pushing him to do war. We

736
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 5: already see it.

737
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:48,120
Speaker 2: We already see Republican congressmen jumping in to say, now

738
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:51,160
Speaker 2: we need full regime change. And that's the way this works.

739
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 2: Not to mention, the Democrats are being very quiet. There's

740
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:57,239
Speaker 2: only a handful who have said anything negative about this,

741
00:36:57,320 --> 00:37:00,360
Speaker 2: so they're pathetic as well the mainstream media, but you know,

742
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 2: they're always horny for war. This is like the most

743
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:07,839
Speaker 2: bipartisan of bipartisan consensis. And to your point, Sager, there's

744
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:11,359
Speaker 2: not There has not been a big propaganda build up

745
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:15,000
Speaker 2: to this war with Iran in the near term, Like

746
00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:17,719
Speaker 2: we didn't have, you know, these big presentations of here's

747
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 2: how close they are to break down and oh my god,

748
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:21,440
Speaker 2: we have to you know, do something right now. We

749
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:25,960
Speaker 2: didn't have that, But we have how many decades of

750
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:28,800
Speaker 2: propaganda that has been sold to the American people about

751
00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:31,359
Speaker 2: how they're such bad guys and we can't let them

752
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 2: get a weapon and we have to do something, and

753
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:35,040
Speaker 2: they're a rogue regime, and so all of that is

754
00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 2: very baked into your normy American psyche. So I think,

755
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 2: especially in the early phases, when it feels very easy

756
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 2: and mission accomplished, you're going to have some significant support,

757
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:48,120
Speaker 2: certainly in the Republican Party.

758
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 5: You're going to have very.

759
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:50,799
Speaker 2: Broad support, and you're going to have some support among

760
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:51,720
Speaker 2: the American population.

761
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:52,359
Speaker 5: I hate to.

762
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:55,120
Speaker 9: Say, Americans love a winner, right all Right after Ukraine,

763
00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 9: the Ukraine flags are still flying them, you know, in

764
00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:03,080
Speaker 9: my neighborhood, and they never catch up with reality.

765
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 1: And this is just me lamenting, but it's the truth.

766
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 1: I mean, just think too.

767
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:10,359
Speaker 3: And also it may be true we even had two

768
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:12,840
Speaker 3: years of propaganda leading up to the war in Iraq.

769
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:15,439
Speaker 3: We have had two years of pro Israel propaganda, Okay,

770
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 3: across the entire Republican Party.

771
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 1: So let's not forget that.

772
00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:21,200
Speaker 3: Right that really makes him though yes to no, maybe

773
00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:23,359
Speaker 3: at a younger level, but I mean, I don't think that.

774
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:26,520
Speaker 2: The Israeli is crying about their civilian casualties. I don't

775
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:28,960
Speaker 2: think that's really landing with people at this point, given

776
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 2: what we've all seen on our timelines.

777
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 1: Ye, all of this, I don't know.

778
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:35,880
Speaker 3: I have found a real reluctance among the American people

779
00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 3: to accept like tenants of realism because it does admit,

780
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:42,880
Speaker 3: you know, it requires admitting moral ambiguity, Like for me

781
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:45,480
Speaker 3: to be able to say these things like, yeah, Saddam

782
00:38:45,640 --> 00:38:47,840
Speaker 3: was a bad guy, and I'm gonna be honest, it

783
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 3: would be better off today if he were still in

784
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 3: power Gaddafi. No one's saying he's a good dude, preferable

785
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 3: to the outcome. Assad He murdered hundreds of thousands of people.

786
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:01,400
Speaker 3: We would be better off today if Bashar al Asade

787
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:04,440
Speaker 3: was in power instead of freaking al Qaeda. Okay, I

788
00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 3: mean I could go down the list and same here

789
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 3: with the Mullas. I don't think the Mulas are great people,

790
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 3: or the Iranian people are prospering in Islamic freedom or

791
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:15,880
Speaker 3: any of this stuff. But you know, I do know

792
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:18,680
Speaker 3: based on that track record that it rarely works out.

793
00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:21,480
Speaker 3: What Mubarik? How did that happen? Oh, Muslim brotherhood gets

794
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:25,160
Speaker 3: itself elected? Now, CC's probably what even more dictatorial than

795
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 3: Mubarik ever was.

796
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 1: I can go on forever.

797
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, in this list, and the point even putin everyone's.

798
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:32,799
Speaker 1: Like, oh, what do you know? Your Putin lover.

799
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:37,240
Speaker 3: I'm like, no, Putin is disgusting. Their system of government

800
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:41,040
Speaker 3: is horrible. But you know, you can acknowledge there's some

801
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:44,680
Speaker 3: moral ambiguity. Americans don't like that. There's like this nineteen eighties,

802
00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:48,840
Speaker 3: like you know, Cold War, Bruce willis evil Empire. Stuff

803
00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:52,400
Speaker 3: that's just been mainlined into their blood, especially if they're boomers.

804
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:56,000
Speaker 3: Younger people get it. But that's another thing about influence.

805
00:39:56,120 --> 00:40:00,080
Speaker 3: My only hope is this is remember Keith Olberman. I

806
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:02,920
Speaker 3: hate Keith Overman, but his rise was very important at

807
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:06,640
Speaker 3: the time. He was the only guy who anti gave

808
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 3: the voice to the people who hated the war in Iraq.

809
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 3: And so this is actually a good moment, hopefully for

810
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:16,040
Speaker 3: independent media, those who are not bought by you know,

811
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:19,319
Speaker 3: by the Israel Lease, Dave Rubin or any of these

812
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 3: other folks. But you know, for the rest of us,

813
00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:23,920
Speaker 3: you know, for at least with the platform of the

814
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:27,120
Speaker 3: Internet more just like the blogosphere in six that's where

815
00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:29,680
Speaker 3: Glenn came from. That's where a lot of stars, you know,

816
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:33,080
Speaker 3: anti war stars originally got their starts. So that's my

817
00:40:33,120 --> 00:40:34,880
Speaker 3: only hope is that I do know at least that

818
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:38,400
Speaker 3: the people eventually hopefully will be on our side. But

819
00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:40,480
Speaker 3: you know, in the interim, I think we're in for

820
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:42,719
Speaker 3: a dark time. And do I think MAGA is gonna

821
00:40:42,719 --> 00:40:46,279
Speaker 3: say absolutely not the idea of some MAGA coalition taking

822
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:46,720
Speaker 3: the streets.

823
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:48,439
Speaker 1: No, it will never happen. I mean, I'm just only

824
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:48,920
Speaker 1: of the truth.

825
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:51,719
Speaker 3: It will never happen. Yeah, there's no such thing. There

826
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:54,120
Speaker 3: may be some elite breakage and all of that, and

827
00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:56,919
Speaker 3: that's part of why I'm pretty outspoken as well as Look,

828
00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:58,680
Speaker 3: I know the White House officials are just like me.

829
00:40:58,760 --> 00:40:59,839
Speaker 1: They're all on Twitter all day.

830
00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:02,319
Speaker 3: You know, they see it, and so if you get

831
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:03,960
Speaker 3: in their head a little bit, that's good.

832
00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:04,760
Speaker 1: But I'm not naive.

833
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:07,960
Speaker 3: I don't think there will be some grand march against

834
00:41:08,160 --> 00:41:10,680
Speaker 3: Donald Trump. He will can They'll go along, they always do.

835
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:13,680
Speaker 2: They will, They'll find some way to rationalize, they'll find

836
00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:16,319
Speaker 2: some way to cope, and so, you know, in the

837
00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 2: in the in the short term, I think the unfortunately,

838
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 2: I think there will be a public willingness among a

839
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:28,000
Speaker 2: good percentage of the population to give another Middle Eastern

840
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:30,680
Speaker 2: war a chance. But as we get dragged further and

841
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:33,719
Speaker 2: further in, I think that will curdle incredibly quickly, and

842
00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:35,440
Speaker 2: I think it will, you know, I mean, I think

843
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:38,440
Speaker 2: his presidency will be all bit destroyed.

844
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:41,000
Speaker 5: Of course for me, that's kind of a silver lining,

845
00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:41,879
Speaker 5: but you.

846
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:45,879
Speaker 2: Know, I think that's inexorably where we are headed. And

847
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:48,840
Speaker 2: you know for a country. Look here, we are declining empire.

848
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:52,160
Speaker 2: Can't even put on a decent like military parade yet

849
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:55,400
Speaker 2: what a squeaky tanks, embarrassing.

850
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:58,719
Speaker 1: Ship marching information you freed are doing a better day.

851
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 5: It is humiliating, actually humiliating.

852
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:05,800
Speaker 2: And the worst part Zger sponsored by coin base, sponsored

853
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:09,120
Speaker 2: by palins here locking by like So here we are

854
00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:13,319
Speaker 2: declining empire in large part because of our previous Middle

855
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:17,440
Speaker 2: Eastern foreign you know adventures. While the Chinese were like

856
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:21,359
Speaker 2: building and creating prosperity for their country and researching, we

857
00:42:21,360 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 2: were at you know, wasting lives, money, you know, lives

858
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:29,359
Speaker 2: and treasure and time, bogged down in Iraq, bogged down in Afghanistan,

859
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:30,879
Speaker 2: still in some ways to this day.

860
00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:34,200
Speaker 5: And so here we are set.

861
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:41,000
Speaker 2: To embark on an even more insane, wild, disastrous, morally

862
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:45,920
Speaker 2: horrific adventure in Iran, a vastly larger country with vastly

863
00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:50,680
Speaker 2: more military resources, and which is also not by the way,

864
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:52,399
Speaker 2: like you know, Iraq was sort of like a fake

865
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:55,160
Speaker 2: country that's like arbitrarily drawn, like Iran has a like

866
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 2: this is a proud nation with a long, you know,

867
00:42:57,239 --> 00:42:59,800
Speaker 2: ancient history, and we think we can just go in

868
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:02,799
Speaker 2: and do what we want to, whatever we want to do,

869
00:43:02,920 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 2: and mold it in our image, et cetera. I mean,

870
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:09,280
Speaker 2: it's just like the scope of the disaster cannot possibly

871
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:11,759
Speaker 2: be you can't wrap your head around it. You know,

872
00:43:11,800 --> 00:43:15,040
Speaker 2: the number of refugees, the number of deaths, the amount

873
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 2: of money, the amount of military cost, all so that

874
00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:22,680
Speaker 2: BB can get his way. And our president is such

875
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:27,960
Speaker 2: a fool that he went along with this rationale. Whatever

876
00:43:28,080 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 2: was sold to him, he bought into it. And now

877
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:32,200
Speaker 2: here we are and we're on this chain that it's

878
00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:33,920
Speaker 2: hard to see how we walk away from. You know,

879
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:36,600
Speaker 2: I really appreciate Dan coming on and getting you know,

880
00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:39,480
Speaker 2: his insights from inside the administration and just he's been

881
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:41,759
Speaker 2: thinking about these issues for a long time. But like

882
00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:44,680
Speaker 2: the idea that the Iranians or anyone else is going

883
00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:46,759
Speaker 2: to think that it's a good idea to negotiate with

884
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 2: us at this point, like it's a fantasy. We lie

885
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:52,600
Speaker 2: to their faces and even going back to the original

886
00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:55,440
Speaker 2: deal with Obama, Like, if you're the Iranians and you're

887
00:43:55,480 --> 00:43:59,280
Speaker 2: looking at it with a cold calculus at this point,

888
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:01,520
Speaker 2: you'd say, we'd be better off if we didn't negotiate

889
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:03,440
Speaker 2: with them and we just pursued a nuclear weapon, we'd

890
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:05,560
Speaker 2: be in better condition today. And they're not the only

891
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:07,359
Speaker 2: country around the world who is going to observe that

892
00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:10,320
Speaker 2: and learn, like, you can't deal with us, you can't.

893
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:12,719
Speaker 2: I mean, the tariffs are another example that, like, you know,

894
00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 2: we can't even tell these countries that we launched this

895
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:17,759
Speaker 2: trade war against what they could do in order to

896
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:20,719
Speaker 2: get the tariffs taken off of them. You can't work

897
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:24,080
Speaker 2: with us, you can't trust us, and that is that's

898
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:26,600
Speaker 2: a disaster for us, it's a disaster for you know,

899
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:28,480
Speaker 2: it's a disaster for the world for hopes of like

900
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:30,080
Speaker 2: peace and coexistence.

901
00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:32,840
Speaker 5: And you know, but yeah, the.

902
00:44:33,640 --> 00:44:37,759
Speaker 2: Cult of Trump being the emblem of America, first, he's

903
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:38,520
Speaker 2: right about that.

904
00:44:39,120 --> 00:44:40,040
Speaker 5: He has created it.

905
00:44:40,080 --> 00:44:42,200
Speaker 2: So it is a cult of personality and it means

906
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:44,799
Speaker 2: what he says it means, and the vast majority of

907
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:48,360
Speaker 2: Republicans are going to find some way to rationalize and

908
00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:49,160
Speaker 2: go along with it.

909
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 5: Whatever it is.

910
00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:53,320
Speaker 1: Absolutely You're absolutely right. Okay, let's get to Tim Dillon.

911
00:44:56,120 --> 00:44:58,840
Speaker 2: So all that being said, we did have an interesting

912
00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:02,319
Speaker 2: descent from Tim Dylan, who has been, you know, one

913
00:45:02,320 --> 00:45:05,319
Speaker 2: of the one of the comedians who was in the

914
00:45:05,480 --> 00:45:09,120
Speaker 2: you know, Trump aligned sphere important for their election this

915
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:11,920
Speaker 2: time around, and he's been increasingly critical of some of

916
00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:14,480
Speaker 2: the actions that have been taken by this administration. Aron

917
00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:16,240
Speaker 2: being no exception. Let's take a listen.

918
00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:19,080
Speaker 9: Israel is fighting a proxy war on behalf of the

919
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:21,960
Speaker 9: UK just like Ukraine is on behalf of the of

920
00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:23,520
Speaker 9: Western Europe against Russia.

921
00:45:23,640 --> 00:45:24,879
Speaker 1: We have to stop it right there.

922
00:45:25,600 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 10: Israel is fighting a proxy war on behalf of the

923
00:45:30,239 --> 00:45:37,040
Speaker 10: United Kingdom. Is that the most insane thing anyone's ever heard?

924
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:41,000
Speaker 10: Are people right now in the United Kingdom is their

925
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:41,960
Speaker 10: biggest problem?

926
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 1: Iran?

927
00:45:43,600 --> 00:45:46,720
Speaker 10: What is this woman speaking of? What is she talking about?

928
00:45:48,160 --> 00:45:50,920
Speaker 10: What does anyone talk is Iran. The reason that no

929
00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:53,439
Speaker 10: one can afford a house is Youran. The reason that

930
00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:57,239
Speaker 10: they're spent and all everywhere is Iran. The reason that

931
00:45:57,320 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 10: we've got political corruption is USh for. The reason is

932
00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:03,799
Speaker 10: r on the reason that we have twelve people that

933
00:46:03,880 --> 00:46:07,080
Speaker 10: own everything in this country is Iran. The reason that

934
00:46:07,120 --> 00:46:12,000
Speaker 10: we have, you know, an epidemic of poison food that's

935
00:46:12,080 --> 00:46:16,120
Speaker 10: killing people and children, And is Iran the reason for

936
00:46:16,160 --> 00:46:18,719
Speaker 10: any of this? Is Iran the reason the corporations in

937
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:23,280
Speaker 10: America just pillage and leave the trail of daft and destruction.

938
00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:26,400
Speaker 8: In their way. Can you imagine knocking on the door

939
00:46:27,000 --> 00:46:30,839
Speaker 8: of a double wide trailer and grabbing a person who

940
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:33,680
Speaker 8: is five months away from being homeless in our country

941
00:46:34,120 --> 00:46:36,040
Speaker 8: and asking them their biggest problem?

942
00:46:36,400 --> 00:46:36,760
Speaker 1: How?

943
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:39,880
Speaker 8: How do you think the word Iran is gonna come up? Much?

944
00:46:40,400 --> 00:46:43,480
Speaker 2: A man, but sager, there is going to be a

945
00:46:43,480 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 2: massive media effort to convince people that actually Iran is

946
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:48,480
Speaker 2: their biggest problem and this is what they should be

947
00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:49,000
Speaker 2: focused on.

948
00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:52,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, of course, and you know we'll watch this all continue.

949
00:46:52,840 --> 00:46:55,160
Speaker 3: This is actually a good test as well as you know.

950
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:57,280
Speaker 3: There was a lot of talk about the podcast election

951
00:46:57,360 --> 00:46:59,560
Speaker 3: and new media and all this. I can only speak

952
00:46:59,560 --> 00:47:02,760
Speaker 3: from my own own just general assessment. I don't think

953
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 3: a lot of the Maga podcast. You know, they're not

954
00:47:06,320 --> 00:47:08,600
Speaker 3: Maga podcast, they're branded that way by the media, but

955
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:11,320
Speaker 3: whatever that, I don't think a lot of those people

956
00:47:11,360 --> 00:47:14,279
Speaker 3: wouldn't necessarily go along with this. I could be wrong,

957
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:16,960
Speaker 3: of course, but there will be, you know, a good

958
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:19,920
Speaker 3: pop culture test as to how this is all going

959
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:22,840
Speaker 3: to play out. But broadly, what Tim is getting at

960
00:47:23,120 --> 00:47:27,319
Speaker 3: is that, you know, look America first, Yes, operationally it

961
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:29,440
Speaker 3: is what Trump whatever Trump.

962
00:47:29,280 --> 00:47:31,960
Speaker 1: Means, talked about it earlier. But it's a potent idea.

963
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:35,880
Speaker 3: And look, it's been smeared for almost a century now,

964
00:47:36,080 --> 00:47:39,360
Speaker 3: but there is a reason that that term arose because

965
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:42,879
Speaker 3: hundreds of thousands of Americans were shipped to Europe and

966
00:47:43,040 --> 00:47:47,600
Speaker 3: killed in the trenches of France for what exactly. To

967
00:47:47,760 --> 00:47:50,239
Speaker 3: this day, there's a good argument about it. And then

968
00:47:50,280 --> 00:47:52,239
Speaker 3: we didn't even pass you know whatever, the treaty or

969
00:47:52,239 --> 00:47:54,560
Speaker 3: the fourteen Points to Treaty Forsi and the League of

970
00:47:54,640 --> 00:47:57,439
Speaker 3: Nations like it was a huge waste. That was a

971
00:47:57,520 --> 00:48:01,200
Speaker 3: general democratic uprising movement in the same way the twenty

972
00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:04,960
Speaker 3: sixteen could probably considered that of saying out loud, this

973
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:07,680
Speaker 3: was a disaster. We were sent off for nothing, and

974
00:48:07,719 --> 00:48:10,520
Speaker 3: it has nothing to do with improving our own lives.

975
00:48:10,960 --> 00:48:13,080
Speaker 3: And that's why it's offensive for Trump to say that

976
00:48:13,080 --> 00:48:15,600
Speaker 3: it's about him, and it's also it's up for the taking.

977
00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:17,719
Speaker 3: It's a real idea, it's something that you know, is

978
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:19,919
Speaker 3: at the heart for a lot of us. So look,

979
00:48:19,960 --> 00:48:21,759
Speaker 3: I hope to see more from this, like from Tim

980
00:48:21,800 --> 00:48:24,360
Speaker 3: from Bill Burr, from Rogan, from any of these guys,

981
00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:26,680
Speaker 3: to to be able to speak out against this, because

982
00:48:26,719 --> 00:48:29,160
Speaker 3: they do have cultural power, they do have the ability,

983
00:48:29,200 --> 00:48:32,080
Speaker 3: you know, to sway or at least highlight public opinion,

984
00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:35,040
Speaker 3: you know, and others, because at this point, like that

985
00:48:35,200 --> 00:48:38,240
Speaker 3: could be all that saves us, and I will be honest,

986
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 3: I don't even think that could save us, just because

987
00:48:40,560 --> 00:48:44,400
Speaker 3: of how captured Washington is by these neo conservatives. I mean,

988
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:46,640
Speaker 3: we had the Democratic leader of the House of the Senate,

989
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:49,200
Speaker 3: the Democratic leader of the Senate, who's supporting the war

990
00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:51,320
Speaker 3: with his you know, basically you're talking.

991
00:48:51,120 --> 00:48:53,080
Speaker 5: About saying Trump into the war.

992
00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:55,960
Speaker 2: He's calling him Tago Trump, Right, I won't really go

993
00:48:56,000 --> 00:48:56,800
Speaker 2: to war with Iran.

994
00:48:56,880 --> 00:49:00,480
Speaker 3: Democratic leadership is asking for this, like they are sorting it.

995
00:49:00,520 --> 00:49:04,280
Speaker 3: We have the entire establishments, Mike Johnson, pray for Israel.

996
00:49:04,320 --> 00:49:08,560
Speaker 3: You know, it's we are totally totally captured at this

997
00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:11,840
Speaker 3: point on the question of Israel's war with Iran, and

998
00:49:11,920 --> 00:49:16,520
Speaker 3: so look, you know, the outside forces, this genuinely maybe

999
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:19,200
Speaker 3: all we have got at this point. Yeah, I want

1000
00:49:19,200 --> 00:49:22,400
Speaker 3: to upset people's expectations. You're not gonna win for a while.

1001
00:49:22,680 --> 00:49:26,280
Speaker 3: It took i mean what six the six midterm elections

1002
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:28,680
Speaker 3: for the anti war voices to really be heard, and

1003
00:49:28,719 --> 00:49:30,200
Speaker 3: to be honest, they didn't really do what they were

1004
00:49:30,200 --> 00:49:32,200
Speaker 3: supposed to do. The surge ended up happening in O

1005
00:49:32,320 --> 00:49:34,879
Speaker 3: seven and all of that, and it took really four

1006
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:37,480
Speaker 3: years to the apotheosis of the Obama campaign. Yeah, he

1007
00:49:37,560 --> 00:49:39,640
Speaker 3: screwed it up to And so also be a lesson.

1008
00:49:39,760 --> 00:49:43,520
Speaker 3: Don't be trusting necessarily Carnival Barker's out there saying that

1009
00:49:43,560 --> 00:49:46,240
Speaker 3: they're anti war and then when they get in power, shocking,

1010
00:49:46,520 --> 00:49:47,759
Speaker 3: you know, they change their tune.

1011
00:49:47,800 --> 00:49:50,440
Speaker 2: It's why it's so important, not that people can never

1012
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:54,799
Speaker 2: change and learn lessons, but it's really important to see

1013
00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:58,319
Speaker 2: who was right about war when it was unpopular. Yeah,

1014
00:49:58,360 --> 00:50:02,080
Speaker 2: because it's very easy, you know, ten years later to

1015
00:50:02,080 --> 00:50:04,560
Speaker 2: be like, oh, the Iraq war that was bad. Yeah

1016
00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:07,120
Speaker 2: at the time when there was a cost to be paid.

1017
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:10,799
Speaker 2: Who said it was wrong at the time? And like

1018
00:50:10,840 --> 00:50:12,640
Speaker 2: I said, it's not that there can't be exceptions. People

1019
00:50:12,800 --> 00:50:15,600
Speaker 2: change their mind and like really, you know, come to realize, Okay,

1020
00:50:15,640 --> 00:50:19,799
Speaker 2: that was absolutely foolish. But broadly, you know the people

1021
00:50:19,840 --> 00:50:22,319
Speaker 2: who were like, a Rock's a great idea, Ukraine's a

1022
00:50:22,320 --> 00:50:26,280
Speaker 2: great idea, and they only shift once public opinion changes

1023
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:29,759
Speaker 2: and it's safe to do so you should be very

1024
00:50:29,920 --> 00:50:31,480
Speaker 2: leery of those people.

1025
00:50:31,600 --> 00:50:31,759
Speaker 5: Now.

1026
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:35,000
Speaker 2: In terms of the media landscape, Yeah, the Democrats are

1027
00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:36,959
Speaker 2: just so utterly pathetic. I mean, I think they are

1028
00:50:37,640 --> 00:50:40,719
Speaker 2: wildly on foreign policy. They are so at odds with

1029
00:50:40,760 --> 00:50:43,400
Speaker 2: the Democratic base, They are so at odds with the

1030
00:50:43,440 --> 00:50:45,520
Speaker 2: Democratic base. And yeah, they are right for the tam

1031
00:50:45,560 --> 00:50:47,839
Speaker 2: I mean, look at what's happening with Zoron in New

1032
00:50:47,920 --> 00:50:52,440
Speaker 2: York City, right, and he has a really quite dramatic

1033
00:50:52,520 --> 00:50:55,560
Speaker 2: I mean, he's a BDS supporter and he's on the

1034
00:50:55,680 --> 00:50:58,239
Speaker 2: verge of potentially winning a New York City mayoral race.

1035
00:50:58,320 --> 00:51:03,239
Speaker 2: Like it shows you how right the rotten husk of

1036
00:51:03,280 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 2: the Democratic Party is for the taking. If you had

1037
00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:08,879
Speaker 2: people who are willing to be like aggressively anti war,

1038
00:51:08,920 --> 00:51:12,760
Speaker 2: because that is where the base is. But the media organizations,

1039
00:51:13,080 --> 00:51:16,279
Speaker 2: they're going to be lockstep in support of Israel, in

1040
00:51:16,360 --> 00:51:19,279
Speaker 2: support of you know, hawkishness. They're going to be cheerleading

1041
00:51:19,360 --> 00:51:22,400
Speaker 2: for more and more and more escalation. And they still

1042
00:51:22,440 --> 00:51:25,160
Speaker 2: have significant purchase, not to mention that there are is

1043
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:28,840
Speaker 2: so many decades of propaganda convincing people that aron should

1044
00:51:28,840 --> 00:51:31,279
Speaker 2: be a top concern that you know, where they are

1045
00:51:31,320 --> 00:51:34,399
Speaker 2: and their weapons development should be something that's top of mind,

1046
00:51:34,440 --> 00:51:38,000
Speaker 2: should be something that's a predominant focus of US policy

1047
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:40,719
Speaker 2: and US foreign policy specifically, that is still going to

1048
00:51:40,719 --> 00:51:42,919
Speaker 2: have some power. So it's really important to see people

1049
00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:45,239
Speaker 2: like Dave Smith, to see people like Tim Dillon, to

1050
00:51:45,280 --> 00:51:49,000
Speaker 2: see new media voices who can offer, you know, a

1051
00:51:49,040 --> 00:51:52,960
Speaker 2: place for truly anti war people to go to feel

1052
00:51:53,000 --> 00:51:55,480
Speaker 2: like they are you know, they are heard, to feel

1053
00:51:55,480 --> 00:51:59,919
Speaker 2: like they're not crazy. And the larger that those non

1054
00:52:00,080 --> 00:52:04,040
Speaker 2: establishment media figures are and more significant they are in

1055
00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:08,640
Speaker 2: in you know, our public discourse on this issue, the

1056
00:52:08,680 --> 00:52:10,880
Speaker 2: better will be. Although you know, obviously I've been like

1057
00:52:10,920 --> 00:52:12,799
Speaker 2: there's a lot of limits there too, some of the

1058
00:52:12,840 --> 00:52:15,680
Speaker 2: same problems you know, where you have just like hack

1059
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:19,360
Speaker 2: partisans in quote unquote independent media as well, and so

1060
00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:22,359
Speaker 2: you'll see plenty of that too. But but yeah, it's

1061
00:52:22,480 --> 00:52:24,719
Speaker 2: it's good to see Tim. I so much respect to

1062
00:52:24,800 --> 00:52:28,160
Speaker 2: Dave for going so hard hard say and Trump should

1063
00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:30,000
Speaker 2: be I mean, he said it previously.

1064
00:52:30,360 --> 00:52:31,200
Speaker 5: Truder has already said.

1065
00:52:31,200 --> 00:52:33,640
Speaker 2: Listen, if Trump gets us involved in warner around, I

1066
00:52:33,680 --> 00:52:35,600
Speaker 2: will apologize for telling people to vote.

1067
00:52:35,640 --> 00:52:37,200
Speaker 5: And he I didn't even have to ask him.

1068
00:52:37,280 --> 00:52:38,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's ready, he just did it.

1069
00:52:39,080 --> 00:52:39,680
Speaker 5: You gotta give it.

1070
00:52:40,000 --> 00:52:41,880
Speaker 3: Look, there's going to be people like that. But also,

1071
00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:43,719
Speaker 3: I mean, as you said, there's the warning. I mean,

1072
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:46,320
Speaker 3: there's a lot of so called independent voices out there

1073
00:52:46,760 --> 00:52:49,799
Speaker 3: that are blithering away on the question why are they

1074
00:52:49,840 --> 00:52:50,720
Speaker 3: always in Tel Aviv?

1075
00:52:50,760 --> 00:52:53,080
Speaker 1: You know, how are these people always in Tel Aviv?

1076
00:52:53,160 --> 00:52:56,360
Speaker 3: It's amazing, isn't it, All of these free trips that

1077
00:52:56,400 --> 00:52:58,760
Speaker 3: they just happen to do. Oh, and it certainly doesn't

1078
00:52:58,800 --> 00:53:02,040
Speaker 3: inform their views at all. But watch out, there's a lot.

1079
00:53:02,160 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 3: There's a lot of dark money and stuff flowing out

1080
00:53:04,080 --> 00:53:07,040
Speaker 3: there as well. It's funny too, because the accusations they're

1081
00:53:07,040 --> 00:53:10,359
Speaker 3: always throwing is that we're bought or somebody else, when

1082
00:53:10,360 --> 00:53:13,120
Speaker 3: in reality, you know, they have the murkiest finances. Oh

1083
00:53:13,520 --> 00:53:18,040
Speaker 3: with the whole whatever that Russian deal y about. Okay,

1084
00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:20,440
Speaker 3: let's let's let even leave Tim out of this. It's

1085
00:53:20,480 --> 00:53:22,880
Speaker 3: more like, how is your business set up? If your

1086
00:53:22,880 --> 00:53:24,680
Speaker 3: business is set up so you don't have any checks

1087
00:53:24,680 --> 00:53:26,960
Speaker 3: and balances to have that amount of cash just flowing

1088
00:53:27,000 --> 00:53:29,160
Speaker 3: into your bank account. You're not asking any questions you

1089
00:53:29,160 --> 00:53:31,160
Speaker 3: have a problem because that's not about Russia. That's just

1090
00:53:31,280 --> 00:53:34,000
Speaker 3: droadly about your philosophy. You should you should know the

1091
00:53:34,120 --> 00:53:36,640
Speaker 3: level of uh, you know, checks and stuff here that

1092
00:53:36,719 --> 00:53:39,320
Speaker 3: happened before any money starts flowing anywhere.

1093
00:53:39,360 --> 00:53:40,560
Speaker 1: And part most of the time.

1094
00:53:40,400 --> 00:53:43,800
Speaker 3: You say no because what because it's about independence and

1095
00:53:43,840 --> 00:53:47,120
Speaker 3: there's a reason for that. So anyway, we'll see because

1096
00:53:47,600 --> 00:53:50,120
Speaker 3: things are not trending in a good direction. But you know,

1097
00:53:50,160 --> 00:53:52,440
Speaker 3: at least we're here. At least we're here to be

1098
00:53:52,520 --> 00:53:53,200
Speaker 3: able to do the.

1099
00:53:53,160 --> 00:53:54,239
Speaker 1: Show for all of you.

1100
00:53:54,360 --> 00:53:56,680
Speaker 3: So I do hope you guys can help support us

1101
00:53:56,800 --> 00:53:59,719
Speaker 3: breakingpoints dot com just because you know this, this work

1102
00:53:59,760 --> 00:54:01,920
Speaker 3: that we have to do is probably more important than

1103
00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:04,840
Speaker 3: ever before. But we'll have a show for everybody tomorrow

1104
00:54:04,880 --> 00:54:06,640
Speaker 3: and the next day and the next day and more.

1105
00:54:06,960 --> 00:54:08,880
Speaker 3: We're going to continue working around the clock here to

1106
00:54:08,920 --> 00:54:10,799
Speaker 3: bring you all the news. So thank you all very much.

1107
00:54:10,840 --> 00:54:11,520
Speaker 1: We appreciate it.