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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: PODYA, All Right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five

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Speaker 3: fifty and.

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Speaker 4: The Kicks Block the Public Football World Stundus, Oh my goodness.

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Speaker 5: He stumble and Football the latter of turn a Tater

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Speaker 5: on the episode gu the Late.

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Speaker 3: Table Off, the Fail the Night, By God, it's not

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Speaker 3: the size of the dog in the fighting, it's the

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Speaker 3: size of the fight. Get all, What's up the generation?

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented by DraftKings.

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Speaker 3: This is the college Football Playoff Semi Final betting for you.

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Speaker 3: The Bowl Betting Preview, Part six. I'm stuck in enjoying

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Speaker 3: me as always my fellow BBOC co hosts Colin Wilson,

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Speaker 3: Mike Calberys, and Josh Nunn aka Duck. We are presented

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Speaker 3: by DraftKings. We will obviously be talking about both semi

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Speaker 3: final games, one on Thursday night, the other on Friday night.

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Speaker 3: Will break them down in depth, give our thoughts. We'll

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Speaker 3: put together a parlay presented by Sling TV for the

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Speaker 3: Miami Ole Miss game, and we will give our favorite

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Speaker 3: bets of the entire semi final at the end. Before

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Speaker 3: we do get started. The Big Bets on Campus podcast

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Speaker 3: has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook, where new customers can

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Speaker 3: bet five dollars and get three hundred dollars back in

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Speaker 3: bonus bets if your bet wins. Staying on the action

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Speaker 3: for shot at an even bigger payout. To get started,

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Speaker 3: use code BBOC when signing up with DraftKings. Again, use

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Speaker 3: code BBOC when signing up and bet five bucks to

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Speaker 3: get three hundred back in bonus bets if your bet wins,

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Speaker 3: the crown is yours. All right, gentlemen, I guess before

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Speaker 3: we get to the f BS semifinals, what a final

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Speaker 3: we had in the FCS One of the better championship

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Speaker 3: type games. I mean that win from Illinois State needing

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Speaker 3: a fourth down conversion of the game was over down

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Speaker 3: fourteen to then in position to win, then going you know,

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Speaker 3: a fuel goal blocked to then go into overtime extra

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Speaker 3: point block and then a touchdown, a game winning national

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Speaker 3: title winning fourth and ten completion in overtime. That game

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Speaker 3: was insane done.

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Speaker 2: It was absolutely perfect cinematic TV. You had Illinois State

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Speaker 2: that pro had some regrets on decisions they made in

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Speaker 2: the first half, going ultra conservative after drives crossed midfield.

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Speaker 2: You had Montana State really look unstoppable on offense. They

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Speaker 2: looked really good in the first half. Illinois State was

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Speaker 2: dead to rights and they came back yet again, and

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Speaker 2: it was just kind of you feel bad for that

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Speaker 2: kicker that it came down to a block field goal

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Speaker 2: and blocked extra point. But my oh my, with Montana State,

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Speaker 2: they almost maybe had to feel like, here we go again,

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Speaker 2: blowing a chance to win the national championship. But the

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Speaker 2: way that they made plays in overtime when they had

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Speaker 2: to have it, that was nuts. It was just an

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Speaker 2: incredible final. And what an atmosphere too, Such a better

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Speaker 2: atmosphere at night in Nashville as opposed to the mid

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Speaker 2: afternoon or morning kickoffs that we saw in Frisco for

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Speaker 2: so many years. I think they made a really good

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Speaker 2: decision putting it in this venue. And yeah, it was

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Speaker 2: just an awesome, awesome football game. It was fun to

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Speaker 2: get to the window on some of those bets.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, good call on the over. But let's get in

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Speaker 3: to the FBS, the main show, the college football playoff

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Speaker 3: semi finals we have. I don't know does anyone does

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Speaker 3: anyone have a perfect bracket out there? I doubt it

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Speaker 3: we have. I know when Colin still, when we the

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Speaker 3: first part the podcast first came out, I did say

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Speaker 3: Indiana it's gonna win it all. That was my pick.

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Speaker 3: Sticking to it, Colin, do you want to change before

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Speaker 3: we get the games? Do you want to change your pick?

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Speaker 5: Who said Indian.

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Speaker 4: Against Georgia that way? I mean, who's got that side

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Speaker 4: of the bracket? Right? I mean Miami? I mean I'm

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Speaker 4: going to the Fiesta Bowl tomorrow, Miami, Ole miss. I

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Speaker 4: couldn't have dreamed. I couldn't have dreamed That's what I was.

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Speaker 4: I thought it was flying Ohio State Georgia. It's crazy.

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Speaker 3: Well you are you? Are you changing the Indiana winning

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Speaker 3: at all? Are you? Are you changing your pick?

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Speaker 2: No?

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Speaker 4: Actually I think Oregon's gonna win it all. We gotta

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Speaker 4: talk about it.

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Speaker 3: Wow, duck, who'd you originally think was gonna win all?

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Speaker 3: And who do you think is winning it all? Now?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: I didn't really make a bold proclamation on who I

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Speaker 2: thought was going to win?

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Speaker 3: Did you have like did you have a thought like,

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Speaker 3: all right, this team. What did you not really know?

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Speaker 2: I mean, I kind of thought Ohio State could have

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Speaker 2: made a deep run. I thought that close loss against

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Speaker 2: Indiana would have really helped them Situationally, I didn't play

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Speaker 2: out that way. Indiana looks really, really strong. I would

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Speaker 2: not bet against Signetty right now based on who we

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Speaker 2: have left.

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Speaker 3: Cayl Brees, did you have a feeling originally?

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Speaker 5: And then originally I like Georgia over Indiana.

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Speaker 1: I think Georgia if Nate Frasier doesn't get hurt, I

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Speaker 1: think they pound in that touchdown late. I think it's

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Speaker 1: a different situation. But obviously he did had a huge

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Speaker 1: impact there. And when you talk perfect bracket, I thought

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Speaker 1: you were teeing me up that I'm eight to oh

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Speaker 1: in college football playoff games here on this show in

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Speaker 1: terms of picks. So I'm excited to potentially get to

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Speaker 1: the window at eleven and oh in these playoff games

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Speaker 1: this year. Can't say I've ever done that since probably

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Speaker 1: like seventh grade, going you know, thirty two and oh

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Speaker 1: on picks straight up in the first round of the

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Speaker 1: NCAA tournament March Madis. That's the closest I've ever been

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Speaker 1: to something perfect in a tournament setting like this, so

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Speaker 1: I'm excited to keep it rolling.

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Speaker 3: All right, Well, let's get into the games. Let's start

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Speaker 3: on Thursday night. Kind of got it. It's a little weird.

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Speaker 3: We have Miami and Old Miss headed out to Arizona

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Speaker 3: to play, and then we have Oregon in Atlanta. Oregon

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Speaker 3: could be going I mean, they could be going all

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Speaker 3: over the place from Eugene. They're traveling over the country.

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Speaker 3: If they win and Miami wins, by the way, it's

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Speaker 3: gonna be in Miami, so keep that in mind. But

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Speaker 3: Oregon is traveling off with the Oregon. Indiana will be

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Speaker 3: in Atlanta, and Miami Old Miss will be in Glendale

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Speaker 3: for the v RBO Fiesta Bowl. Miami is a let's

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Speaker 3: call it three point twenty five point favor between three

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Speaker 3: and three and a half. Uh, Calbreas, congrats on your start,

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Speaker 3: but I have to say I think it ends here.

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Speaker 3: Total fifty one and a half fifty two. You like Miami.

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Speaker 3: I think you're wrong, But I'll let you start off

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Speaker 3: and make your case.

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Speaker 1: Sure, let's get it started with the March Madness analogy

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Speaker 1: I just had. You've seen these Cinderella's now clearly Old

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Speaker 1: Miss isn't the Cinderella by any basketball standards, but they

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Speaker 1: weren't supposed to be here, and a lot of this

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Speaker 1: has been driven on emotion, on spite sticking it to

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Speaker 1: Lane Kiffin having the emotional home playoff win over tu Lane,

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Speaker 1: and then really playing a game of lifetime against Georgia,

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Speaker 1: who I mentioned they want it on the field, but

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Speaker 1: if Georgia has a full deck there lad in the game,

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Speaker 1: I think they just give it to Fraser and get

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Speaker 1: in the end zone. But the thing that interests me

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Speaker 1: the most is now as they go, you know, pack

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Speaker 1: it all up, go across country again. They're in a

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Speaker 1: position where who's coaching this team? Because Kevin Smith was

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Speaker 1: out but now he's back in. You have the passing

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Speaker 1: game coordinator in Joe Cox, who's also the receiving coach.

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Speaker 1: He's now down in Baton Rouge, the tight ends coach

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Speaker 1: as well. You got Charlie Weiss one foot in, one

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Speaker 1: foot out. I think there's a bit of a brain

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Speaker 1: drain situation here, and I don't think that it can

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Speaker 1: be overstated in a game like this, because when I

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Speaker 1: look at Miami and what they're bringing to the table

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Speaker 1: in terms of coaching, Shannon Dawson has done an incredible

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Speaker 1: job coaching them up, and when you look at what

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Speaker 1: he was able to do against Ohio State defense, that

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Speaker 1: was elite, including that like fake quarterback draw swing pass

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Speaker 1: in the red zone. I was very impressed with some

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Speaker 1: of the wrinkles that he put on tape. But Corey

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Speaker 1: Heatherman is the reason why I'm on the Canes in

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Speaker 1: this game. You know, if you lay three and a half,

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Speaker 1: you can get even money out there in the market.

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Speaker 1: He's done an incredible job. And when you look at

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Speaker 1: that game flipping, you know pick six, that was coaching.

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Speaker 1: That wasn't just a player just instinctually saying I'm going

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Speaker 1: to jump this route and potentially be out of position

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Speaker 1: and give up a touchdown behind me. You know, Scott

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Speaker 1: was able to do that because he had seen that

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Speaker 1: on tape. His position coach had coached him up, and

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Speaker 1: Heatherman put him in a spot where he wanted him

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Speaker 1: to be aggressive. And when you look at this ole

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Speaker 1: miss offense, Shambless is obviously the engine, but there's been

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Speaker 1: a couple occasions where he's been pressured consistently and all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden, the ceiling on this rebel offense has

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Speaker 1: come down a little bit. The two games i'd like

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Speaker 1: to point two were Wazoo and Florida. Wazoo got home

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Speaker 1: three times, but also created eleven pressures, nearly pull off

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Speaker 1: a catastrophic upset from an old Miss perspective as thirty

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Speaker 1: three point dogs. They end up losing by three in

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Speaker 1: that game. And then Florida, a team that underwhelmed for

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Speaker 1: the entire season. They were able to create ten pressures

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Speaker 1: in that game and they were leading in the fourth quarter.

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Speaker 5: So I think the game here is all in the.

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Speaker 1: Trenches, and if you can consistently pressure shambless, you have

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Speaker 1: an opportunity.

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Speaker 5: And what does Miami have in spades?

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Speaker 1: They have talent on both sides of the line, but

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Speaker 1: particularly on the defensive side, best pass rush, havoc mined

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Speaker 1: front seven and a ball hawking mentality. Twenty five takeaways,

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Speaker 1: ninth in the entire country. So I think they're going

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Speaker 1: to be able to get it done to let's call

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Speaker 1: it twenty four points keep them from absolutely exploding. I

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Speaker 1: know that the recency bias that this is saying, well,

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Speaker 1: if Georgia couldn't you know, keep him, you know at Bay,

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Speaker 1: what chance does anyone have This just wasn't the Georgia

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Speaker 1: team of yesteryear. Defensively, they struggled for long stretches of

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Speaker 1: the season creating pressure and you saw it just not

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Speaker 1: being able to get to him. He was having these long,

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Speaker 1: extended plays that you know, you can't put it on

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Speaker 1: your secondary to cover for seven seconds when it flips around.

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Speaker 5: Miami has the football.

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Speaker 1: We've given so much shit, rightfully so to Mario Cristo

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Speaker 1: Ball over the years of not being able to handle

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Speaker 1: leads of wilting down the stretch. But the coaching has

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Speaker 1: been really strong in this playoff run. And I think

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Speaker 1: it's pretty simple in that they were able to run

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Speaker 1: the ball for one hundred and fifty three yards on

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Speaker 1: the silver Bullets at Ohio State.

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Speaker 5: You know run defense.

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Speaker 1: When you look at Ole Miss, they got to be

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Speaker 1: looking their chops. Sixty fifth in rushing success rate defensively,

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Speaker 1: but ninety second in line yards. I think this Miami

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Speaker 1: line is going to punch open some big holes for

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Speaker 1: Mark Fletcher, who by the way, has elevated himself to

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Speaker 1: six nationally per PFF in terms of running back grade.

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Speaker 1: I think he's going to have a big game. I

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Speaker 1: think he's going to get in the end zone, and

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Speaker 1: I think get to twenty seven thirty one points, I

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Speaker 1: think it's going to be enough. So I'm going to

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Speaker 1: go with this being the situation where the rebels magical

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Speaker 1: season finally dies in the desert.

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Speaker 5: I play Miami up all.

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Speaker 1: The way to edge of a full touchdown if you're

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Speaker 1: interested in maybe watching a driver too, and then you

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Speaker 1: have to take a discount in the opposite direction on

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Speaker 1: a live number. I still think minus six and a

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Speaker 1: half is good with the Canes.

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Speaker 3: I completely disagree. I like Ole mess here. I make

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Speaker 3: this like two and a half two point five to five,

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Speaker 3: So I like anything over a field goal, even like

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Speaker 3: plus three and a half minus one fifteen he I think,

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Speaker 3: just right now we are or many people and the

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Speaker 3: market is underestimating trinerout jamnalists like he's playing at I

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Speaker 3: don't know, like the way that it looks is he's

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Speaker 3: playing at like a peak Lamar Jackson peak, like Kyler

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Speaker 3: Murray in college level. He's as of right now, he's

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Speaker 3: almost unpressurable. I mean you look at their pressure rate,

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Speaker 3: his sack rate, and that is the key to playing Miami.

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Speaker 3: Miami's defense is predicated on Bain and Mesador wrecking havoc

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Speaker 3: in the backfield, because if they don't get home. This

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Speaker 3: Miami team, they're aggressive Underheather and who's done a tremendous job,

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Speaker 3: they will give up explosive place. And ole Miss is

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Speaker 3: as capable of hitting explosive place as any team in

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Speaker 3: the country. I think Chamblers can buy enough time. I mean,

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Speaker 3: you might have to scramble backwards twenty yards, but then

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Speaker 3: this Miami secondary is gettable. Additionally, I think they're going

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Speaker 3: to use super fast tempo. We Bane Mesco. We saw

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Speaker 3: them during the two minute drieral Ohio State went was

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Speaker 3: a snail again. I think they can wear them down.

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Speaker 3: That tempo is going to be a tool. And I

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Speaker 3: just think right now I have ole Miss as the

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Speaker 3: better offense. I mean Miami's offense. They what have they done?

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Speaker 3: Fletcher broke at like two runs and two games. Other

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Speaker 3: than that, they didn't do anything. I think beck Is

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Speaker 3: thrown for two hundred and twenty yards and two games,

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Speaker 3: and that's because they they didn't They didn't have to

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Speaker 3: do much because their defensive line wrecked havoc on both teams,

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Speaker 3: and Reed was just bad saying as a statue that

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Speaker 3: is not the case with Chambliss. Is Miami gonna be

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Speaker 3: able to run the ball, absolutely, but they're not that

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Speaker 3: explosive of a rushing attack, which I think will help

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Speaker 3: We'll miss, but ole missus I believe they could always

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Speaker 3: change their game plan. But schematically, what ole Miss generally

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Speaker 3: does under Golding is that they're gonna play a ton

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Speaker 3: of zone. They're gonna play ben but don't break, don't

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Speaker 3: give up anything explosive, and Miami's not an explosive offense

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Speaker 3: in generally speaking. They're gonna they're gonna move the ball

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Speaker 3: down the field, They're gonna be able to run the ball,

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Speaker 3: and then Ole Miss is gonna hope for stops in

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Speaker 3: the red zone. And but I think from an explosive

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Speaker 3: play perspective, this is gonna be so heavily tilted in

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Speaker 3: ole Miss's direction. And this can't be a game where

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Speaker 3: Beck just manages the game and they just let him,

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Speaker 3: you know, let's just not let Carson Beck make mistakes.

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Speaker 3: I think this is a game where Beck might make

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Speaker 3: some a couple of key mistakes. I think Ole Miss

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Speaker 3: can get some pressure. But I'm just I just think

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Speaker 3: Chambliss right now is to rate it. I think this

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Speaker 3: is closer it should be under a field goal in

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Speaker 3: my opinion, closer to a point clip end. I have

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Speaker 3: the special team's edge. Ole Miss might have the best

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Speaker 3: special I mean they just outplayed Georgia special teams. I

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Speaker 3: think as right now SMP plus they're number one in

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Speaker 3: special teams now, I mean Carnero is an absolute weapon.

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Speaker 3: I still don't trust Miami's kicking situation. Additionally, more plays,

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Speaker 3: more opportunities for this Miami team to mess up. Mario

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Speaker 3: tried to mess up the A and M game by

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Speaker 3: not going down at the one. But the discipline. Miami

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Speaker 3: is one of the most undisciplined teams in the country.

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Speaker 3: There are I think the one hundred and tenth in

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Speaker 3: penalties per game Whole Miss around national average around fifty

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Speaker 3: fifth sixtieth. But this to me just comes down to

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Speaker 3: Chambliss making plays, being able to evade that pressure, hitting

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Speaker 3: explosive plays down the field. Ole Miss playing their bend

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Speaker 3: but don't break, forces Beck into a mistake or two.

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Speaker 3: I think this game goes back and forth throughout iraditionally,

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Speaker 3: like the over. Now what scares me is just if

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Speaker 3: the game script where Miami the other thing is ole

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Speaker 3: Miss right now with Golden has showed me is that

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Speaker 3: he's he kind of has some Lane Kiffin and me,

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Speaker 3: he's going to be aggressive and Miami when they get leads,

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Speaker 3: and just in general, Mario will be a little bit

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Speaker 3: more conservative. I like having the more aggressive coach in

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Speaker 3: a high stakes game like this. But the thing that

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Speaker 3: does scare me is because I do think Miami be

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Speaker 3: able to run the ball. They're not the most explosive team.

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Speaker 3: Is just if if they do indeed have these six

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Speaker 3: to seven minute drives, now that's will help the ole

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Speaker 3: Miss side, but they end in a couple of field goals,

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Speaker 3: you know, then it might be tough to get this over.

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Speaker 3: But I think that ole Miss is going to control

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Speaker 3: this pace and then I think the Miami offense will

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Speaker 3: look they'll they're going to have to open it up.

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Speaker 3: And this is a much easier test than Ohio State.

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Speaker 3: So I would look at the over as well. Colin,

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Speaker 3: and I made my case for ole Miss. Calbary's made

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Speaker 3: his case for Miami. You like, I guess part of mine.

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Speaker 3: You like ole Miss in the first half.

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Speaker 4: Well, I have an eighteen to one on old Miss

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Speaker 4: future too, So I'm with you, but I think the

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Speaker 4: better BET's the first half and go ahead.

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Speaker 5: Did you want to set up what I thought.

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Speaker 3: You were supposed to talk? Said it?

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Speaker 4: And yeah, No, I mean I wrote, Yeah, I mean

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Speaker 4: I wrote a book. I wrote a novel on this game,

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Speaker 4: kind of gave it the national championship treatment. So I'm

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Speaker 4: completely behind you on everything that you said, and I'm

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Speaker 4: against a lot of the things I heard Calbary say.

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Speaker 4: So let me go ahead and weave through my novel

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Speaker 4: here and try to point out the thing with this

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Speaker 4: Old Miss team is the more I kept diving, the

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Speaker 4: more layers I kept going, I said, Oh my god,

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Speaker 4: there are so many other things that are good about

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Speaker 4: this team other than Chambliss. There are so many factors

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Speaker 4: here that my eye just has not seen until I

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Speaker 4: got into the numbers. First off, I like the over

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Speaker 4: in this game. The Fiesta Bowl, the Verbo Fiesta Bowl

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Speaker 4: is almost always an over game. Go back to twenty

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Speaker 4: nineteen when Clemson Ohio State played taking Trevor Lawrence and

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Speaker 4: Justin Fields. Yeah, they roll that turf in guys. There

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Speaker 4: is a video out there and be like three four

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Speaker 4: years ago on the field at the Fiesta Bowl before

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Speaker 4: the TCU Michigan game, feeling the grass, showing everybody there's

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Speaker 4: still pre sip on it when they roll it in.

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Speaker 4: Who's that advantage of That's the advantage of the offensive

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Speaker 4: player that can make the cut. I like the and

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Speaker 4: by the way, what happened in the TCU Michigan game.

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Speaker 4: What was there ninety six points in that semi final?

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Speaker 4: I like the over here just for that reason alone,

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Speaker 4: that the offenses get to dictate where the cuts are

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Speaker 4: going to be made. Now they both have a common opponent,

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Speaker 4: they both played Florida, both of them beat them same

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Speaker 4: yards per play. There's no real takeaways from that. I'll

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Speaker 4: start with Ole miss with Kewon lazy, because you got

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Speaker 4: to start on the ground with Lacey. What he does

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Speaker 4: behind right guard Patrick Cootis transfer from Arkansas is amazing.

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Speaker 4: It doesn't matter if it's in the A gap or

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Speaker 4: the B gap. He averages seven yards per attempt on

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Speaker 4: seventy three runs this season. They're doing inside zone and

355
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Speaker 4: power concepts. Kutis is fifteenth among all guards in PFF

356
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Speaker 4: run block rating. I didn't know he was that high.

357
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Speaker 4: I know he was a little bit overweight and he

358
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Speaker 4: was lazy at Arkansas. And when he transferred to Old Miss,

359
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Speaker 4: I said, good riends. I didn't know he was a

360
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Speaker 4: fifteenth best run blocking guard in the entire FBS of guards,

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Speaker 4: so that one kind of got my attention. He's going

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Speaker 4: up against Justin Scott, David blay Aman Moten, who just

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Speaker 4: showed up as questionable on the availability board.

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Speaker 5: I didn't even know that.

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Speaker 4: But this is a defensive interior that he's going to

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Speaker 4: go up against with Miami. None of those guys are

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Speaker 4: in the top one hundred when it comes to defensive

368
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Speaker 4: interior run defenders per PFF. Huge advantage for the Old

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Speaker 4: Miss offensive line. Huge advantage for Kiwan Lacey. I didn't

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Speaker 4: even know Miami's defensive interior was not that great at

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Speaker 4: defending the run. It kind of shows up in their

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Speaker 4: overall numbers. But Lacey's on a heater, ten rushing tds

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Speaker 4: and fifteen explosives in the last five games. I mean,

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Speaker 4: he cannot be stopped the Miami. He dominated all run

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Speaker 4: concepts this year except for inside zone and specifically on

376
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Speaker 4: the right side of the line where Kudis is. So

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Speaker 4: you just might as welllign Lacy up Byankutis and go. Now,

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Speaker 4: let's talk about Bay and Messador, that is the elephant

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Speaker 4: in the room. Can they get to Chambliss? I think

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Speaker 4: the answer is no. First off, Ban and Messador I

381
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Speaker 4: thought were like the best pass rushers in the nation.

382
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Speaker 4: They barely slip in the top thirty five in PFF's

383
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Speaker 4: pass rush productivity. I thought they were better than that.

384
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Speaker 4: Who are they going to go up against? Blind side

385
00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:34,240
Speaker 4: tackled Diego pounds for Ole miss Over at the left

386
00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 4: tackle top one hundred of all pass blockers and FBS

387
00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,000
Speaker 4: has not allowed to sack this entire season and only

388
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Speaker 4: allowed five pressures against an SEC schedule. What about the

389
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Speaker 4: other side? Messador was the big name here in this

390
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Speaker 4: last round that we just played. He's gonna get Jayden

391
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Speaker 4: Williams at right tackle has allowed two sacks a season,

392
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Speaker 4: only four pressures in the last six games for Old Miss.

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Speaker 4: He's also on a heater on the right side of

394
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Speaker 4: that offensive line. I think Shamba's plays those are.

395
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Speaker 3: Chambali's stats too, though, just his ability, his ability to

396
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Speaker 3: elude pressure.

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Speaker 4: You'd be a little bit shocked that he doesn't have

398
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Speaker 4: as much scramble yards as you would think. Like the

399
00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:14,480
Speaker 4: offensive line is doing a lot of good work here.

400
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Speaker 4: And I think the fact that Shambalis has a history

401
00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:21,600
Speaker 4: of carving up cover three fifty eight percent success rate

402
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Speaker 4: Miami's one hundred and nineteenth in PFF tackling.

403
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Speaker 5: No one's mentioned this yet.

404
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Speaker 3: Yeah, they missed, They missed a ton of tackles, and

405
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Speaker 3: on those field conditions, how was he going to bring

406
00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:31,960
Speaker 3: that up? I think miss tackle rate there one hundred

407
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Speaker 3: and thirty second in college football.

408
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Speaker 4: Ninety third and broken tackles allowed. I love broken tackles allowed.

409
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,000
Speaker 4: Miami allows a lot of them. And in the Hurricanes

410
00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:43,600
Speaker 4: they missed twenty five tackles and gave up eight explosives

411
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Speaker 4: against Texas A and M and Ohio State Ole miss

412
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:51,360
Speaker 4: is ripe for protecting their quarterback, having lacy power over

413
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Speaker 4: the right side of that line, and then there's just

414
00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:57,040
Speaker 4: a plethora of inside targets like Chambliss has killed it

415
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Speaker 4: in between the hash marks.

416
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Speaker 5: Who's that going to be?

417
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Speaker 4: It's gonna be Kayden Lee, Winston, Walkins, dakwan Wright sometimes

418
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:04,919
Speaker 4: design stribbling lines up in the slot and goes over

419
00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:07,159
Speaker 4: the middle. But they're gonna go against Kiante Scott, who

420
00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:09,800
Speaker 4: played a great game in the last round and Mohammed

421
00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:12,920
Speaker 4: Torre who as a linebacker who can be taken advantage

422
00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:15,560
Speaker 4: of easily, Which is why I like Daikwon Wright. The

423
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:17,600
Speaker 4: tight end has shown up for Old Miss in all

424
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Speaker 4: the big pressure games.

425
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Speaker 5: I got it.

426
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Speaker 4: I think over twenty three and a half yards is

427
00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:23,240
Speaker 4: twenty five and a half yards as we're recording this,

428
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Speaker 4: I'm not sure about his touchdowns. I'm not sure he's

429
00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:28,280
Speaker 4: gonna get that look, but d Kwan Wright getting over

430
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:29,720
Speaker 4: twenty five and a half yards I think is a

431
00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 4: play that you have to have.

432
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Speaker 5: Also, I have to mention Lucas right now.

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Speaker 3: That's why you like Old Miss because this is the

434
00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:40,080
Speaker 3: This is like the like to Arkansas winning a national title.

435
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 4: Gu I mean Lucas took his helmet off and I

436
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:44,960
Speaker 4: forgot that the man had a receiving airline at nineteen

437
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:45,400
Speaker 4: years old.

438
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:46,440
Speaker 5: Poor guy.

439
00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:49,440
Speaker 4: Look the fact that has got a target in the

440
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:51,919
Speaker 4: last two games and he had the first TV score

441
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:56,639
Speaker 4: against Georgia Like this is this was Arkansas's best player

442
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:58,440
Speaker 4: and then had an ankle injury. Was this supposed to

443
00:21:58,440 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 4: play the entire year? And now he's in the rota

444
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:02,080
Speaker 4: of getting targets in the red zone and I can't

445
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:05,360
Speaker 4: even find him on boards for first TD on most

446
00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:09,720
Speaker 4: books now thankfully DK has plus five to fifty anytime TD.

447
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:12,040
Speaker 4: I dipped into that because I think Luke Cause is

448
00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:16,040
Speaker 4: now a part of the rotation for the red zone.

449
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,159
Speaker 4: I think Miami's got a chance to score points too,

450
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 4: though I do like the over, but I don't think

451
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:21,440
Speaker 4: it's gonna be good enough.

452
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 5: Fletcher two or in sixty two yards.

453
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,680
Speaker 4: You're mentioned the big runs that he's had inside zone

454
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:28,640
Speaker 4: man blocking assignments. Ole Miss has been shredded by those

455
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:31,520
Speaker 4: six percent success for it or worse. So I do

456
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 4: like Fletcher as a prop to get over his eighty

457
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:37,000
Speaker 4: six yards. But can Beck kind of win this game

458
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 4: for them?

459
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:37,920
Speaker 5: I don't think so.

460
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 4: There's no explosives here. The methodicals that they've been created

461
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 4: have been had a little bit of assists from the

462
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 4: defenses that they're going up against.

463
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:47,679
Speaker 5: I like ole Miss in the.

464
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:50,320
Speaker 4: First half now stuck, I'm riding with my eighteen to one.

465
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 4: I'm not going to kill that. I need to ole

466
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:53,880
Speaker 4: Miss to win this game. I like the first half better.

467
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,280
Speaker 4: For this reason, we've mentioned the coaching staff for ole Miss,

468
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:58,399
Speaker 4: Charlie Wison, does he had to turn to for adjustments

469
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:00,960
Speaker 4: all this stuff is happening first two quarters? Is he

470
00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 4: just going to brainstorm this and do this on his

471
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 4: own that? Does he have a runnings back coach, a

472
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 4: tight end code? Does he have anybody to talk to

473
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 4: to bounce idea?

474
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 3: That's the real hef in the room? What is the

475
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:09,399
Speaker 3: impact of that?

476
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:10,159
Speaker 5: Who were they?

477
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:12,440
Speaker 3: This is an unprecedented situation.

478
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,400
Speaker 4: There's no eyeballs in the press box to radio down

479
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 4: and say we need to move over to a twelve

480
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:20,200
Speaker 4: personnel or we need to start going over this side

481
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 4: like there's no one there. So ole Miss first half

482
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 4: for me, uh, because I think the adjustments are going

483
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:27,639
Speaker 4: to play into Miami and what they're going to do defensively.

484
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:31,159
Speaker 4: But I like the over I like ole Miss in

485
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:33,240
Speaker 4: the first half. I'm not hedging off my eighteen to

486
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 4: one future. I think Fletcher goes over his numbers because frankly,

487
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:42,639
Speaker 4: ole Miss is secondary being top ten and pass epa

488
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:45,680
Speaker 4: allowed top ten and contested catch rate.

489
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:47,560
Speaker 5: I didn't know this.

490
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 4: I didn't know the Rebels were that good in past defense.

491
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:52,080
Speaker 4: Did you guys know they were that good against explosive?

492
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 3: The past defense excellent all year and and Miami doesn't

493
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 3: get don't they don't allow explosive Miami's not going to

494
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:00,359
Speaker 3: get any explosive heere. I mean you can always have

495
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 3: You could always have Tony break one, get him on

496
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:07,560
Speaker 3: a street and anytime he touches the ball. But this

497
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 3: is going to be about like how many times how

498
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:11,320
Speaker 3: consistent the man's gona be able to run the ball

499
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:13,159
Speaker 3: and they're gonna be able to move it. But I

500
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:14,720
Speaker 3: think it's just gonna be more difficult for them to

501
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:17,479
Speaker 3: do that consistently. If ole Miss is able to hit

502
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:20,119
Speaker 3: explosives and score at the rate I think that they

503
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:22,639
Speaker 3: will now if they If they can't and being a

504
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 3: Mesdore wrecking havoc, then Mimi doesn't have to. They can

505
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:28,440
Speaker 3: just control the ball and play like they played in

506
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 3: the first two games against A and M in Ohio State.

507
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna have to get into the high

508
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:37,159
Speaker 3: twenties thirties to win this game. And I don't trust back.

509
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 3: I just give you the better quarterback right there, give

510
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:42,680
Speaker 3: me Chamblis and the better offense, better better specialty.

511
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 4: Better secondary, the better tackling team. I didn't realize Ole

512
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 4: Miss had all this stuff. And the last thing I'll say,

513
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 4: because it really ties into what Duck's gonna play. Ole

514
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 4: Miss is a first half scoring team. They are ninth

515
00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:57,399
Speaker 4: in FBS in first half, scoring twenty point six points

516
00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 4: per half. Not sure how that affects, you know, wanted

517
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:02,119
Speaker 4: to take an over runner in the first half. But

518
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:04,440
Speaker 4: what I do know is Ole Miss's best punch is

519
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 4: coming straight out of the gate. And I don't have

520
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 4: a lot of faith in offensive staff that is depleted themselves,

521
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 4: right Who's Charlie Whits's gonna bounced ideas off of I

522
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:13,679
Speaker 4: worry about all missing the second half, but I'll take

523
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:14,720
Speaker 4: ole this first half.

524
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 5: Just real quick, better offensive line? You think it's all miss?

525
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 4: Patrick Cutis is a bulldozer right now?

526
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 3: Who were all? Bamy has got a better off? Come on?

527
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 5: Yeah?

528
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 3: Absolutely?

529
00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 1: And when you when you talked to apples to apples,

530
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 1: they both played the Florida Gators. The Gators had one

531
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:34,720
Speaker 1: sack against Miami. They had five against Shambliss And I

532
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 1: absolutely agree. One of the big with shining lights you

533
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:41,879
Speaker 1: know on it is that Miami has had issues tackling

534
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 1: this year.

535
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:43,639
Speaker 5: There's nowhere you can hide from that.

536
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:46,680
Speaker 1: Somehow they held the number thirteen and the number eleven

537
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 1: offenses in sp plus in A and M and Ohio

538
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 1: State to seventeen total points. And it's because this line

539
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 1: can wreck drives and shambless. Like listen, I know that

540
00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:00,359
Speaker 1: Marcel Reid. We can say after the fact, oh, they

541
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 1: weren't ready. You know, they looked like shit. Miami had

542
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:05,600
Speaker 1: a big part in that. They sacked him seven times,

543
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,119
Speaker 1: They beat him up. They were able to contain him

544
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,920
Speaker 1: at certain times they weren't. You know, he wasn't making

545
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 1: plays outside of the tackles.

546
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 3: So you guys have made it.

547
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 1: You know, you're compelling case. I just think it's interesting.

548
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:19,159
Speaker 1: You know, from your perspective, Colin, you were kind of

549
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,040
Speaker 1: waiting for the bottom to drop out on old miss

550
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 1: last week against Georgia. But now, all of a sudden,

551
00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:27,000
Speaker 1: all the stats say that this team can't be beaten,

552
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:30,640
Speaker 1: and Shambliss is a one man wrecking crew. This kind

553
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 1: of strikes me as one of those opportunities to grab

554
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 1: an elite defensive line. And I'm gonna I don't do

555
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 1: this very often, but whatever the numbers are on Bain

556
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 1: and Mesador, it seems like NFL executives are enamored with

557
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 1: these guys.

558
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 5: They just had what four three.

559
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 1: And a half tackles were lost in the last game.

560
00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 1: I have a lot of faith in a four man

561
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,639
Speaker 1: rush to throw off what ole Miss.

562
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 3: Wants to do.

563
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:54,360
Speaker 1: And Heatherman someone that I've been in love with since

564
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:57,360
Speaker 1: his Minnesota days. So I'm gonna go with the better defense.

565
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:00,440
Speaker 1: You know, sometimes it's just where your conviction's at. I

566
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 1: think you're you're splitting it a little bit by going

567
00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 1: first half. I don't necessarily hate that angle. I think

568
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 1: that ole Miss is going to be able to, you know,

569
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:09,639
Speaker 1: put some explosive plays out there. The turf does concern

570
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:11,920
Speaker 1: me a little bit. We'll see, if you know, the

571
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 1: coaching staff has to know it. This has to be

572
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 1: something that has to be discussed inside of their coaching room,

573
00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 1: because at least they have seventeen coaches and ole Miss

574
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 1: has They're the fresh prince of bel Air meme where

575
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 1: everyone's looking around and no one's there. They have to

576
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:26,120
Speaker 1: be talking about it in terms of the cleats they're wearing,

577
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 1: the preparation, everything else. But if there's gonna be explosives,

578
00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 1: it probably would lend itself to ole Miss hadding value

579
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 1: in the first half.

580
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 4: FYI, Baine and Mesador were gassed. You better believe Ole

581
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:38,239
Speaker 4: Miss is coming out with tempo they had.

582
00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 5: They're gonna plays off. They had to come out like

583
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:42,119
Speaker 5: they were gassed. They didn't have.

584
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 3: They're going to go. They're gonna go super tempo. I

585
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 3: also would mention, like the Miami A and M game,

586
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:50,119
Speaker 3: you can throw some of the offensive stats up on

587
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:53,760
Speaker 3: both sides, like the case that you know against Miami's

588
00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 3: offense in A and M's defense is in elite.

589
00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 5: But and also Miami there was a ton of wind.

590
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:02,680
Speaker 3: There was a ton of win in that game. So no,

591
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:04,240
Speaker 3: I'm just saying there was a ton of wind that

592
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:08,680
Speaker 3: impacted the kicks, the downfield passing, which kind of like

593
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 3: just turned that game into a.

594
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 4: Completely Jefferson pilot time slot a field position.

595
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:17,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, I will. I will say, you brought up, by

596
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:20,880
Speaker 3: the way, this is Mario versus Joe Judge clock management.

597
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 3: Whoever is winning with two minutes ago is not going

598
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 3: to the national title. You brought up Ole Miss eighteen

599
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:30,399
Speaker 3: to one. I got a couple of dms. I always

600
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 3: get dms about should I hedge? I can't answer that

601
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 3: for you because like it depends on like what does

602
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 3: the money mean to you? Why did you place the

603
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 3: be do you actually like the other side? Now, what

604
00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 3: was your goal when you placed the bet like that?

605
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 3: What's your financial situation? What's your risk aversion level? I mean, no,

606
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:48,400
Speaker 3: you go on and on. I'd have to be like

607
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 3: a personal financial advisor. But the one thing I can

608
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 3: tell you in regards to hedging is, like you if

609
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:55,719
Speaker 3: you have eighteen to one, so like, we'll just make

610
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:59,080
Speaker 3: it easy. Say you have one hundred dollars on ole

611
00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 3: Miss eighteen to one one to win eighteen hundred, and

612
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 3: you said, okay, I want to get I just want

613
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 3: to make you know some profit. Well, Miami is we'll

614
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 3: call it minus one sixty five on the money line.

615
00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 3: To say you wanted to make one hundred dollars, you

616
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 3: wanted to guarantee one hundred dollars in profit, so you

617
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 3: bet three thirty to win two hundred, right, and then

618
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 3: say ole Miss goes down, you win your two hundred

619
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:28,480
Speaker 3: dollar bet, you lose your hundred dollar future you profit

620
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 3: at one hundred dollars. The problem there is that if

621
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 3: ole Miss wins your one hundred dollars to win eighteen

622
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 3: hundred dollars bet moves on, but you're down three thirty

623
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 3: on your hedge, and if Indiana wins, Indiana's probably going

624
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 3: to be minus three hundred ish. W'll probably be like

625
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 3: a touchdown favor. Now it depends on how ole Miss

626
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 3: looks sally Indiana wins, but we'll call it seven minus.

627
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 3: We'll call it like minus three hundred, just to you know,

628
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 3: if you wanted to then profit one hundred dollars, you

629
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 3: want to guarantee you're one hundred dollars again, Well you

630
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 3: have one hundred dollar future. You lost three thirty on

631
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 3: your first hedge, so you're down four thirty. You got

632
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 3: to win five thirty. So at minus three hundred, then

633
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 3: you'd have to bet you know, the six fifteen ninety

634
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 3: just to win one hundred. Well that's fifteen ninety. You

635
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 3: you're the future is going to be eighteen hundred dollars.

636
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 3: So it doesn't make sense you people, and people always

637
00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 3: want to hedge way too early. This is just two

638
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 3: games an eighteen to one, and there's a spread of

639
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 3: a fuel goal. But it just goes to show you

640
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:36,000
Speaker 3: how quickly it can turn on you.

641
00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:38,480
Speaker 5: So there's also the option stuck.

642
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 1: It's worth mentioning if you think Indiana because I agree

643
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 1: if it's Indiana Ole Miss. They're going to be a

644
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 1: huge money line favorite, but they're plus one forty out

645
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:48,280
Speaker 1: on DraftKings right now to win the whole thing. So

646
00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:50,440
Speaker 1: I mean there's different ways you can go about it

647
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 1: in terms of grabbing a piece, and then if it

648
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 1: is Oregon that advances, then you're closer to maybe a

649
00:30:57,000 --> 00:31:01,320
Speaker 1: minus one seventy minus two hundred, so all of a sudden,

650
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,680
Speaker 1: the math is like a little bit back in your favor.

651
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:07,480
Speaker 1: But I agree it's not the best situation when you're

652
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 1: holding a team that's potentially going to be a heavy.

653
00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 5: Underdog in the next round. For those I would just

654
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 5: let it ride.

655
00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:15,200
Speaker 3: And now obviously it depends on the amounts and everything,

656
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 3: and you kind of got screwed because they play first.

657
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 3: It would have been better if Oregon Indiana played first.

658
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 3: But keep the my live market right like this total

659
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 3: is fifty two could be a little wild. So if

660
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 3: O Miss goes up and then you can get Miami

661
00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 3: as a dog at some point as part of your hedge,

662
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 3: and then there's a chance that it could you could

663
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 3: middle too, that might be a little bit more reasonable.

664
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 4: But I usually has live odds on the national title too.

665
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 5: During the middle of the game.

666
00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:47,239
Speaker 4: But I'll just throw in my two cents because we're

667
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 4: just two years removed. For me taking a one hundred

668
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 4: to one Washington ticket into the National title game, which

669
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 4: I had five hundred dollars on so like, and we

670
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 4: talked about this extensively on this podcast. It's like, my

671
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 4: goal in the semi final with Washington was to get

672
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 4: my investment back to my measly five hundred dollars. Right

673
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 4: it paid out fifty thousand. It was just to get

674
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 4: my investment back. Fast forward to Houston the next week.

675
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 4: Michigan's minus four and a half and I've got seven

676
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 4: different books and I had twenty two thousand dollars down

677
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:17,680
Speaker 4: to hedge out of the fifty thousand that would have

678
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:21,479
Speaker 4: paid off for Washington. So semi finals get your get

679
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 4: your investment back, and then it is all up to

680
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 4: your discretion when you get to the when you get

681
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 4: to the big game, I have.

682
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 3: This is my favorite, well, my favorite National title feature

683
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 3: is when I've been sorry, gone to bring this up

684
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 3: Ohio State fifty to one in twenty fourteen after it

685
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 3: lost about Tech, I just pulled one out. My second favorite.

686
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 3: I was ahead of the curve I had Arizona State

687
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:48,080
Speaker 3: to win the national title in this was placed New

688
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:52,719
Speaker 3: Year's Eve twenty twenty one in twenty twenty two, one

689
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:57,040
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty to one four hundred to win sixty

690
00:32:57,120 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 3: thousand on Jayden Daniels when he was at out of

691
00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 3: in the state. Obviously they can, but it's one of

692
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:08,400
Speaker 3: the I was stacked full of hilarious tickets, futures tickets. Duck,

693
00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 3: we forgot. It's like, did you take a nap? Sorry, Yeah,

694
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 3: You've just been sitting back listening, curious to get your thoughts.

695
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 3: Colin kind of alluded to you, like the first half under,

696
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 3: but what are your thoughts on the side We've been

697
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 3: kind of arguing back and forth. Are you siding with Chambliss,

698
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 3: are you siding with Beck and the Miami defensive line,

699
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:30,719
Speaker 3: and what are your thoughts here?

700
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 2: Well, first off, I think we've seen two good data

701
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 2: points now from Miami and what the game plan is

702
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:38,680
Speaker 2: that they're going to deploy, and I don't think they

703
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 2: have to really go off script on that, So I

704
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:43,840
Speaker 2: don't expect Carson Beck to drop back and throw the

705
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 2: ball around here a ton, specifically in the first half.

706
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 2: I think Miami will be able to move the ball

707
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:51,680
Speaker 2: on the ground against Old Missus Defensive Front seven, and

708
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 2: that's the path for them being methodical. It's not going

709
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 2: to be a lot of pace, it's not going to

710
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 2: be a lot of explosivity, but they will be methodical

711
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 2: and they'll be able to possess the ball and move

712
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 2: it on the ground. I was encouraged by Old Missus

713
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 2: Defensive Front and how they played against Georgia two sacks,

714
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 2: nine TFLs, So I think there's an ability for Old

715
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 2: Missus defense to step up and stall these drives out,

716
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 2: which will result in punts and long fields. The other way,

717
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 2: I'm worried about the Miami Front. I think you look

718
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:22,839
Speaker 2: at a group that's got forty eight sacks, ninety five

719
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 2: tackles for loss. We've already talked about the guys that

720
00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 2: are going to create a problem for Old miss and

721
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:31,759
Speaker 2: I don't think the operation is going to look like

722
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:35,239
Speaker 2: it's looked all season for Trinidad Chamberliss. I don't think

723
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 2: he's going to be able to add lib off the

724
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:42,360
Speaker 2: cuff when things go off schedule and just create plays

725
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:44,440
Speaker 2: like he's shown this ability to do. And that's not

726
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 2: a knock on his play because he's been exquisite this year.

727
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:50,319
Speaker 2: But one thing that's real interesting here is these first

728
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:53,440
Speaker 2: couple of games for Old Miss playing with a truncated

729
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 2: staff and a hodgepodge of different players coaching at the

730
00:34:57,480 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 2: various different position groups. Is they already played Tulane, they

731
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 2: had already played Georgia. You really only had to roll

732
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:06,359
Speaker 2: out a partial install for the opponents that they were

733
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:10,360
Speaker 2: playing during these first couple of playoff games. Now with

734
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 2: a full prep install and an abbreviated staff, and you've

735
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 2: got all these guys that are doing different things and

736
00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 2: exerting bandwidth to their new job and trying to stay focused.

737
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 2: I just worry about how things show up, like pass

738
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:26,040
Speaker 2: protection and if we get the right shift from the

739
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:27,759
Speaker 2: running back to pick up the blitz, or if that

740
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 2: gets missed, or does a receiver have to alter the

741
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:33,840
Speaker 2: way that his route is run due to the coverages

742
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 2: he's going to see. Well, that all comes out in

743
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:39,359
Speaker 2: the install practices leading up to now. You've got one

744
00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 2: less day to do that with the way that the

745
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:44,320
Speaker 2: game schedule played out, and you're installing against an opponent

746
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:46,480
Speaker 2: you hadn't faced, which they have not had to do yet.

747
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,239
Speaker 2: During this playoff run. That's why I think the first

748
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:51,359
Speaker 2: half could look a little wonky. I think these guys

749
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:53,439
Speaker 2: are going to have to get some snaps under their belt,

750
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 2: get into the half, and make some adjustments, at which point, sure,

751
00:35:57,200 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 2: all hell could break loose. But I think we've seen

752
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 2: the game plan for Miami. They've only had one offensive

753
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 2: touchdown scored in the first half of both of their

754
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 2: two playoff games combined zero zero against a and m

755
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:10,239
Speaker 2: fourteen er against Ohio State, and I just feel like

756
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:12,880
Speaker 2: it's gonna take a little while for Old Miss with this.

757
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:17,239
Speaker 2: It's just gonna be such an unprecedented situation with the

758
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:19,839
Speaker 2: lack of coaching staff and the lack of consistency week

759
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 2: to week. I think it's trouble.

760
00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:24,239
Speaker 3: How about from the side perspective, who do you think

761
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 3: eventually comes out on top.

762
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:29,360
Speaker 2: I think Miami is the only team that would have

763
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:32,800
Speaker 2: a reasonable chance to challenge Oregon or Indiana, And I

764
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 2: think that that defensive line is just playing too well

765
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:39,239
Speaker 2: right now, So I will give a tiny lean to

766
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:40,280
Speaker 2: the Canes.

767
00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:42,799
Speaker 3: All right, should be a good one regardless. I can't

768
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:47,239
Speaker 3: wait to watch it, and sometimes college football can be unexpected,

769
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:50,920
Speaker 3: Like ten ceed Miami beating number one Ohio State outright,

770
00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:54,800
Speaker 3: or Alabama putting up a complete dut against Indiana. But

771
00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 3: one thing you can count on is never missing a

772
00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:00,400
Speaker 3: moment of these college football playoff games with Sling TV.

773
00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:04,239
Speaker 3: Sling TV offers flexible package options of one to three

774
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:07,400
Speaker 3: and seven day passes for access to thirty plus live channels,

775
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:11,719
Speaker 3: which includes ESPN and TNT, so you're covered for the

776
00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:15,919
Speaker 3: upcoming semi final games, the National Championship, and more. Well,

777
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:18,080
Speaker 3: we just got done talking Miami Ole Miss, so let's

778
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:22,799
Speaker 3: put together a seeing game parlay in that game, it's

779
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:26,320
Speaker 3: gonna pay around thirty six to one. At DraftKings. We

780
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 3: just hit our most recent Sling TV parlay in the

781
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:35,719
Speaker 3: quarterfinals that paid I think somewhere around seven to eight

782
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:39,080
Speaker 3: to one. I'll start things off. I'm gonna go Ole

783
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 3: Miss team total over twenty three and a half like

784
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:46,320
Speaker 3: the over. Like Ole Miss, I think they get to

785
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:50,360
Speaker 3: at least twenty four explosives. Colin, where are you gonna go?

786
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:50,960
Speaker 5: Yeah?

787
00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 4: I mentioned Mark Fletcher having the avenue through the Ole

788
00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 4: Miss defense to get some yards here over eighty six

789
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:00,439
Speaker 4: and a half in his rushing prop like the over.

790
00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 4: In that Fletcher has been such a big part of

791
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 4: the Miami offense. This is not an offense that creates

792
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 4: explosive plays on the ground.

793
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 5: Or through the air.

794
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:10,320
Speaker 4: And I think the only way they can stay in

795
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:12,800
Speaker 4: sanderd down is if Fletcher does his work. So you

796
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 4: can't take advantage of this old miss defensive line. You

797
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 4: just can't pass on him. That's in favor of Mark

798
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:17,959
Speaker 4: Fletcher getting his yards.

799
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 3: Doc, what do you want to put in here?

800
00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:21,759
Speaker 2: We'll go first half under for the reasons that I

801
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:23,840
Speaker 2: had stated earlier, But I just think we'll see the

802
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:26,680
Speaker 2: script stay on point for what we've seen in Miami

803
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:29,799
Speaker 2: first half during these playoffs, and I think red zone

804
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:32,560
Speaker 2: defense and pass rush will win the first half. I

805
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:34,280
Speaker 2: think we'll see under twenty six and a half.

806
00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:37,520
Speaker 1: Breeze Keynes laying the three and a half. They dominate

807
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 1: the trenches, They put the shackles on Shambliss for stretches.

808
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:43,640
Speaker 1: He's still gonna make big plays, but not enough for

809
00:38:43,719 --> 00:38:45,600
Speaker 1: Olmosts to win this game. They end up pulling it

810
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 1: out by a touchdown thanks to their offensive line opened

811
00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:49,640
Speaker 1: up big holes for Fletcher all night long.

812
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:52,120
Speaker 3: All right, so last week we had plus seven thirty

813
00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 3: one this not I mean, we have an ole miss

814
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 3: over a first half under in Miami, So this one's

815
00:38:59,120 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 3: going to pay.

816
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:00,839
Speaker 5: A lot more.

817
00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 3: Looking at around thirty six to one at DraftKings. So

818
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 3: with so many great games still to come, sling TV

819
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 3: is your solution to instant access to live TV starting

820
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,799
Speaker 3: as low as four ninety nine. There isn't a better

821
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:18,080
Speaker 3: time to acquaint yourself with one to three and seven

822
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:21,719
Speaker 3: day passes from Sling TV offer applies to Orange one

823
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 3: day pass restrictions apply. All right, let's get to the

824
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:29,960
Speaker 3: second game Friday night, Oregon Indiana Indiana three and a

825
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 3: half point favorite in the Chick fil A Peach Bowl

826
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:39,120
Speaker 3: total we'll call it yeah forty seven ish as of

827
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 3: right now. This game will kick Friday seven thirty Eastern

828
00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 3: on ESPN. It's a rematch from earlier this season when

829
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 3: Indiana went to Eugene and frankly pretty much dominated that game.

830
00:39:53,120 --> 00:39:55,719
Speaker 3: They did so just I went back and watched that game,

831
00:39:57,360 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 3: so I was like, all right, well, first of all,

832
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:01,919
Speaker 3: what is changed, Like, there's some things that has changed

833
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:05,920
Speaker 3: with Oregon and with Indiana. A couple injuries. Oregon, by

834
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:08,279
Speaker 3: the way, has lost a couple backs, including Davison who

835
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:11,360
Speaker 3: has a broken clavical. They still have you know, Whittington

836
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 3: and Hill, but their depth have running back. One of

837
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:15,360
Speaker 3: their strengths is they just roll out a number of

838
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:18,719
Speaker 3: guys has been tested. But my, you know, when I

839
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:24,680
Speaker 3: went back and watched that game, it's it was because

840
00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:26,719
Speaker 3: if you look at just the rosters, right, Oregon has

841
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:28,800
Speaker 3: more pure talent. So if you just look at like

842
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:35,480
Speaker 3: Stars and Blue Chips, but Indiana has more grown men, right,

843
00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 3: They're all like seniors, are old, and they were the

844
00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:42,080
Speaker 3: more physical team. They dominated that game at the line

845
00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 3: of scrimmage on both sides. They pressured Dante Moore and

846
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:50,040
Speaker 3: he has been very bad under pressure this year, and

847
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:52,319
Speaker 3: he's been very lucky against the Blitz, And you got

848
00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:53,800
Speaker 3: to think about some of the teams he's faced that

849
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:58,839
Speaker 3: Blitz are impoverished defenses, and whenever Dante more has gone

850
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 3: up against like a really good defense, they're off. The

851
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:04,120
Speaker 3: Oregon offenses look pretty pedestrian. But they pressured him on

852
00:41:04,160 --> 00:41:07,759
Speaker 3: almost on over fifty close to fifty percent of his dropbacks.

853
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:12,840
Speaker 3: He was under fire all day long. And one of

854
00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:15,640
Speaker 3: the reasons that I was worried about Texas Tech last

855
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:17,839
Speaker 3: week is they don't they're not efficient at running the ball. Well,

856
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 3: that's not the case with Indiana. That's what you want

857
00:41:19,719 --> 00:41:23,319
Speaker 3: to do against Oregon. Run the ball, get into third

858
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:26,880
Speaker 3: and manageable situations. And I think that's what Indiana is

859
00:41:26,880 --> 00:41:29,720
Speaker 3: going to be able to do here. And this Indiana

860
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:35,759
Speaker 3: team is just the every time out there under Sig,

861
00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:40,640
Speaker 3: they just out execute everybody, and I think that's how

862
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:42,120
Speaker 3: they're going to win this game. And if you just

863
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:44,080
Speaker 3: match up, like, Okay, what are the strengths of weaknesses.

864
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:46,840
Speaker 3: There's obviously two elite teams. The strengths and weaknesses of

865
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:50,200
Speaker 3: both teams. Like Indiana, you can hit them aggressive defense,

866
00:41:50,200 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 3: you can hit them for some explosives, but Oregon's not

867
00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:54,799
Speaker 3: like particularly explosive. I don't think they can. They're going

868
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:57,680
Speaker 3: to hit a ton of explosives here, the main difference.

869
00:41:57,719 --> 00:41:59,400
Speaker 3: And then you look at Okay, well we're gonna be

870
00:41:59,400 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 3: able to run the ball, well, not really against Indiana.

871
00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:04,719
Speaker 3: So I think they're going to be in more third

872
00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:07,520
Speaker 3: and long situations where those pressure packages which have been

873
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 3: amazing from Indiana and that defensive staff all year are

874
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 3: going to come into play again. We'll see what the

875
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 3: adjustments for Morgan. Oregon is right, they're going to adjust

876
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:17,360
Speaker 3: from the blitz, is that? But Indiana is gonna have

877
00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:19,560
Speaker 3: some adjustments too, So there's a nice cat and mouse

878
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 3: game there. But the one weakness here or like when

879
00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:27,279
Speaker 3: you overlap these teams is the Indiana offensive line in

880
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 3: the run game versus the Oregon defensive line. They should

881
00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:32,120
Speaker 3: be able to get a push here. That should set

882
00:42:32,160 --> 00:42:34,800
Speaker 3: them up for third and manageable. Indiana's number one in

883
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:39,000
Speaker 3: the country in average third down distance. I think that's

884
00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:41,719
Speaker 3: that's where they win this game. Indiana just a little

885
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 3: better offense, a little better defense, grown men. And here's

886
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:49,279
Speaker 3: I'll sum it up in like five stats or four

887
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:54,800
Speaker 3: stats third down defense. Indiana's fourth in the country twenty

888
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:59,880
Speaker 3: nine percent. Oregon is forty first. Indiana third down off

889
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:03,440
Speaker 3: number one by a wide margin of fifty five percent.

890
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:05,759
Speaker 3: It's a number you rarely see. Maybe I don't know,

891
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:08,080
Speaker 3: five or six teams over the last ten years have

892
00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:09,919
Speaker 3: hit that clip if you exclude a couple of Army

893
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:16,920
Speaker 3: teams from twenty seventy to eighteen, Oregon twenty eighth giveaways

894
00:43:17,000 --> 00:43:20,239
Speaker 3: per game, Indiana point six, fourth in the country. I

895
00:43:20,280 --> 00:43:22,480
Speaker 3: mean they're top five and all these do you beat

896
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:25,440
Speaker 3: yourself stats? Oregon point nine is still very good, but

897
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:29,040
Speaker 3: twenty first have about penalties per game Indiana three point

898
00:43:29,120 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 3: four third, Oregon five point two to thirty third. So

899
00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:38,840
Speaker 3: like all of these, like execution, well coached third downs offense,

900
00:43:38,960 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 3: third down defense, the high leverage downs, penalties, turnovers, I

901
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 3: think all of those tilt towards Indiana. Grown men in

902
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:49,480
Speaker 3: the trenches. I think that's where they get it done.

903
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:52,520
Speaker 3: I think Indiana wins this game, but I make it

904
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:55,640
Speaker 3: like four, so I want to three. I do have

905
00:43:55,760 --> 00:44:02,000
Speaker 3: some a bunch of Indiana money line exposure to close

906
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:04,440
Speaker 3: out a couple parlays that I'll just be riding with.

907
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:07,600
Speaker 3: If this number gets down to three, I'll be adding

908
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:09,920
Speaker 3: to Indiana. We'll look for them live. Money line is

909
00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:11,759
Speaker 3: a dog as well, but I think that's where they

910
00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:13,399
Speaker 3: win this game. I think this'll be a really competitive game.

911
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:16,600
Speaker 3: I'm so curious to see what the adjustments are because

912
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 3: this is a rematch, right, and that might give a

913
00:44:19,800 --> 00:44:21,680
Speaker 3: little bit of an edge to Oregon because they're going

914
00:44:21,719 --> 00:44:23,840
Speaker 3: to make maybe they're more likely to make the adjustments.

915
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:26,440
Speaker 3: But I trust this Indiana team and this staff to

916
00:44:26,560 --> 00:44:28,680
Speaker 3: come up with some adjustments and not do the same

917
00:44:28,760 --> 00:44:32,840
Speaker 3: things they did. From a defensive perspective, Mendoza think his

918
00:44:33,040 --> 00:44:35,040
Speaker 3: legs might come into play here. That's a spot where

919
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:38,320
Speaker 3: Oregon is a little more vulnerable. Why not use his legs.

920
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:41,000
Speaker 3: I mean, maybe you're like the kid's future, but like

921
00:44:41,120 --> 00:44:43,400
Speaker 3: this is to go to the national championship, use his

922
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:46,319
Speaker 3: legs a little bit more, some more quarterback designed runs.

923
00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:48,800
Speaker 3: I think they can pressure more, force him into mistakes.

924
00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:52,319
Speaker 3: I think it'll be close, relatively speaking, but I think

925
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:56,399
Speaker 3: Indiana gets it done. In sig we trust Duck. I'll

926
00:44:56,440 --> 00:44:58,200
Speaker 3: go to you next. What are you seeing here in

927
00:44:58,360 --> 00:44:59,440
Speaker 3: Oregon Indiana?

928
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 2: I mean, I did play the first half under way

929
00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 2: early before we saw some movement in this total. But

930
00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:09,440
Speaker 2: Indiana has just been incredible, absolutely has proven that they

931
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:11,600
Speaker 2: belong as the front runner as the favorite to win

932
00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 2: these FBS Playoff Playoff National Championship. And really they've spoken

933
00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:19,400
Speaker 2: loudest in the trenches. Their trench play has just been

934
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:22,440
Speaker 2: absolutely lights out. You knew in the first three drives

935
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:24,359
Speaker 2: against Alabama that they were not going to be able

936
00:45:24,400 --> 00:45:27,200
Speaker 2: to move the football and score a lot of points there,

937
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:31,319
Speaker 2: and it allowed the offense to just run the ball

938
00:45:31,440 --> 00:45:33,479
Speaker 2: be Vanilla. They didn't have to give a lot away,

939
00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:35,080
Speaker 2: they didn't have to take a lot of chances. It

940
00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:38,279
Speaker 2: was a really, really buttoned up, impressive performance. And it's

941
00:45:38,320 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 2: interesting in that first meeting of the season between Oregon

942
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:44,400
Speaker 2: and Indiana, I mean, Oregon scored one offensive touchdown. They

943
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:47,640
Speaker 2: ran the ball thirty times for eighty one yards. Indiana

944
00:45:47,719 --> 00:45:50,120
Speaker 2: has given up some explosiveness on the ground this season,

945
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:53,840
Speaker 2: but seventh nationally yards per carree surrendered fourth in overall

946
00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:57,480
Speaker 2: defensive success rate. I just don't see Oregon lining up

947
00:45:57,800 --> 00:45:59,440
Speaker 2: with the ability to run the ball. So now you're

948
00:45:59,480 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 2: going to task Dante more in throwing against an elite

949
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:06,239
Speaker 2: Indiana secondary. I'd say it was average the first meeting.

950
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:08,239
Speaker 2: I think he completed twenty one of thirty four for

951
00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:10,520
Speaker 2: less than two hundred yards, had a couple of picks.

952
00:46:11,120 --> 00:46:12,960
Speaker 2: If you get pressure with him, it's going to be

953
00:46:13,080 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 2: really tricky here. And the way that this Indie Indiana

954
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:19,400
Speaker 2: team everything they're doing, everything they say, they show up

955
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:21,960
Speaker 2: on every single play for sixty minutes. I would not

956
00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 2: want to fade Signetti here.

957
00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:28,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think, but I pregnant in the guard for Oregon.

958
00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:31,279
Speaker 3: I think he's one of the best offensive linemen in

959
00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 3: the country in my opinion, But I think that Harky

960
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:37,200
Speaker 3: and World their tackles are overrated. I know World is

961
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:39,680
Speaker 3: like loved by a lot of NFL scouts, but these

962
00:46:39,719 --> 00:46:43,040
Speaker 3: are guys that came from Nevada and Texas State. They

963
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:46,880
Speaker 3: got abuse in the first matchup when I watched them

964
00:46:46,880 --> 00:46:51,200
Speaker 3: against like really really elite defenses. They can be beat

965
00:46:51,280 --> 00:46:52,880
Speaker 3: and Indiana beat them in the first meeting. I think

966
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:56,480
Speaker 3: they'll be able to beat them. Here. The Indiana offensive line,

967
00:46:56,600 --> 00:47:00,239
Speaker 3: that's the most improved unit for on Indiana's team from

968
00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:03,279
Speaker 3: last year. They have elite they have elite trenches. Now,

969
00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:08,239
Speaker 3: I mean Carter Smith is incredible attackle Pat Coogan, Drew

970
00:47:08,280 --> 00:47:10,919
Speaker 3: Evans who was hurt late last year in the College

971
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:15,560
Speaker 3: Wall cloff, he's incredible at guard. This offensive line. I'll

972
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:19,160
Speaker 3: take the Indiana offensive line over the Oregon offensive line.

973
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 3: That's important here. Yeah, I agree with you on the

974
00:47:22,640 --> 00:47:24,080
Speaker 3: Hoosiers Calvaries. What are you seeing here?

975
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:26,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would love to get a three, but I'm

976
00:47:26,800 --> 00:47:29,080
Speaker 1: just going to take the money line pregame on Indiana.

977
00:47:29,200 --> 00:47:31,480
Speaker 1: Lay the minus one seventy five, and to me, it's

978
00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:35,719
Speaker 1: as simple as this. Dante more profile because you look

979
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:37,719
Speaker 1: around the internet right now, and God save him. He's

980
00:47:37,800 --> 00:47:39,880
Speaker 1: mocked to the New York Jets second overall in the

981
00:47:40,000 --> 00:47:43,719
Speaker 1: NFL draft this spring. I don't see an elite, unflappable

982
00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:46,520
Speaker 1: college quarterback when he plays against really good defenses. I

983
00:47:46,600 --> 00:47:50,120
Speaker 1: see Game Manager plus. But in this matchup, for some reason,

984
00:47:50,280 --> 00:47:52,279
Speaker 1: you know, the market is still viewing him as someone

985
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:55,080
Speaker 1: who can elevate this Oregon team over Indiana. And he

986
00:47:55,200 --> 00:47:57,080
Speaker 1: can when the running game's cooking, when he's working with

987
00:47:57,160 --> 00:47:59,560
Speaker 1: his RPOs, this play action game, when he's operating from

988
00:47:59,560 --> 00:48:00,719
Speaker 1: a clean as.

989
00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:03,000
Speaker 5: You brought up stuck, he's capable of put him up

990
00:48:03,040 --> 00:48:03,479
Speaker 5: big numbers.

991
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:06,200
Speaker 1: Seventy seven percent of his dropbacks he was operating from

992
00:48:06,239 --> 00:48:08,359
Speaker 1: a clean pocket this fall, and he cooked up twenty

993
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:10,840
Speaker 1: seven big time throws in those environments twenty five TVs

994
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 1: against their six picks, with an adjusted completion percentage of

995
00:48:14,080 --> 00:48:17,240
Speaker 1: eighty three point four percent. But that is all built

996
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:20,720
Speaker 1: on Dan Lanning's roster architecture, elite offensive line, a stable

997
00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:22,839
Speaker 1: of running backs, which is important now because they're down

998
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:26,200
Speaker 1: Davison as well. So now really only two guys who

999
00:48:26,280 --> 00:48:29,200
Speaker 1: have experienced this season, and a blue chip pedigree and

1000
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:31,360
Speaker 1: a playbook that was devised by will Stein, who's no

1001
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:34,400
Speaker 1: longer there. So I look at this as like a

1002
00:48:34,480 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 1: lot of his stats Dante Moors, it was a bit

1003
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:40,719
Speaker 1: of empty calories. Over third of his passing touchdowns came

1004
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:43,040
Speaker 1: when Oregon was up by twenty two points or more

1005
00:48:43,160 --> 00:48:45,320
Speaker 1: this season, But when the Chips were down.

1006
00:48:45,200 --> 00:48:47,879
Speaker 5: And he was facing elite defenses, it was a different story.

1007
00:48:47,960 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 1: Penn State, Iowa, Indiana, Texas Tech all top twenty five

1008
00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:54,000
Speaker 1: defenses QBR in those games fifty one point eight out

1009
00:48:54,040 --> 00:48:57,719
Speaker 1: of one hundred, six point one yards per attempt, four touchdowns,

1010
00:48:58,040 --> 00:49:00,840
Speaker 1: four picks. So I look at that as if the

1011
00:49:01,000 --> 00:49:04,000
Speaker 1: you know, the running game is contained and he has

1012
00:49:04,120 --> 00:49:06,680
Speaker 1: to be the guy in known passing situations, I think

1013
00:49:06,719 --> 00:49:08,240
Speaker 1: he turns from him a top NFL.

1014
00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 5: Draft pick into just another guy.

1015
00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:12,080
Speaker 1: And Indiana sacked him six times in their first meeting,

1016
00:49:12,480 --> 00:49:14,080
Speaker 1: And how did their defense do with that daily which

1017
00:49:14,080 --> 00:49:15,800
Speaker 1: I think was a critical talking point going into the

1018
00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:18,640
Speaker 1: Rose Bowl. Forty dropbacks for Simpson and mac in that

1019
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:21,520
Speaker 1: Rose Bowl for Bama sixteen pressures. That's forty percent of

1020
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:24,000
Speaker 1: the time. When you look at what you know more

1021
00:49:24,040 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 1: has been accustomed to. He's had an awesome offensive line

1022
00:49:26,640 --> 00:49:28,360
Speaker 1: in front of him, with just a twenty three percent

1023
00:49:28,640 --> 00:49:31,399
Speaker 1: pressure rate that doubled against Indiana. In the first meeting,

1024
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:33,879
Speaker 1: forty eight percent of his dropbacks he was under fire.

1025
00:49:34,080 --> 00:49:35,600
Speaker 1: So I think they're going to make life miserable for

1026
00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:37,960
Speaker 1: this kid. I think they also have the run defense

1027
00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:40,600
Speaker 1: to put him in those known, you know, passing situations.

1028
00:49:40,640 --> 00:49:42,960
Speaker 1: Early and often, they were top five in rushing success,

1029
00:49:43,040 --> 00:49:45,759
Speaker 1: top five in line yards and tackling. I just don't

1030
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:47,440
Speaker 1: see this guy pulling the rabbit out of his hat

1031
00:49:47,480 --> 00:49:49,799
Speaker 1: and making the big plays to get them over the hump.

1032
00:49:50,040 --> 00:49:51,759
Speaker 1: It may end up being a lower scoring game. That's

1033
00:49:51,760 --> 00:49:53,480
Speaker 1: why I'm not interested in laying the four to four

1034
00:49:53,520 --> 00:49:55,840
Speaker 1: and a half, but minus one seventy five. Like I

1035
00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 1: said before the Bama game, I think we're going to

1036
00:49:58,160 --> 00:50:00,880
Speaker 1: look back and wish we had more INVESTM did in Signetti.

1037
00:50:01,040 --> 00:50:03,120
Speaker 1: He's somebody that we've been you know, tailing since he

1038
00:50:03,160 --> 00:50:03,840
Speaker 1: got to Indiana.

1039
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:04,719
Speaker 5: Why stop now?

1040
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:08,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I will Stein will be coaching, right he just

1041
00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:09,279
Speaker 3: left the team this week.

1042
00:50:10,120 --> 00:50:12,520
Speaker 1: I would say, just you know, it's a frame that

1043
00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:15,640
Speaker 1: properly kind of in the same light as one foot

1044
00:50:15,680 --> 00:50:18,760
Speaker 1: out the door wears his head Charlie West junior situation.

1045
00:50:18,880 --> 00:50:20,600
Speaker 5: Same thing going on with old miss and LSU.

1046
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 1: A lot of prep needs to be done against Signetti,

1047
00:50:23,280 --> 00:50:25,960
Speaker 1: who is an ultimate prep kind of guy. So I

1048
00:50:26,160 --> 00:50:28,400
Speaker 1: think in that situational football, all the stats that you

1049
00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:31,200
Speaker 1: brought up, particularly in third downs, that's where Indiana wins

1050
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:31,480
Speaker 1: the day.

1051
00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:34,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean right. It's just kind of tells the

1052
00:50:34,480 --> 00:50:37,840
Speaker 3: story of the current colleg football landscape. Nate Oregon beats

1053
00:50:38,360 --> 00:50:42,400
Speaker 3: Texas Tech to advance the Collegewell playoffs semi final. Stein

1054
00:50:42,480 --> 00:50:47,919
Speaker 3: immediately flies to Kentucky, handles all the recruiting portal, Sam

1055
00:50:48,040 --> 00:50:48,920
Speaker 3: loved beauty stuff.

1056
00:50:49,280 --> 00:50:52,920
Speaker 4: What's that Sam Lovitt, Dam Levitt or Sam Levit day?

1057
00:50:53,760 --> 00:50:55,640
Speaker 3: I think Sam Levity that's gonna come down to Simpson

1058
00:50:55,680 --> 00:50:59,400
Speaker 3: comes back to VAMA. Maybe Levit ends up at Alabama

1059
00:50:59,400 --> 00:51:00,480
Speaker 3: if not, but uh.

1060
00:51:01,840 --> 00:51:02,040
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1061
00:51:02,040 --> 00:51:05,439
Speaker 3: And then the ole missed coaching situation, like it's a mess.

1062
00:51:05,480 --> 00:51:08,040
Speaker 3: They have to change the calendar in some aspect. But

1063
00:51:08,280 --> 00:51:15,239
Speaker 3: he definitely doesn't have his full undivided attention on this game. Colin,

1064
00:51:15,280 --> 00:51:17,000
Speaker 3: what are you seeing here? You actually like the Ducks?

1065
00:51:17,040 --> 00:51:19,400
Speaker 3: You're fading sig Well, I.

1066
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:23,960
Speaker 4: Think it's important to lay out the financial plan for everybody.

1067
00:51:24,280 --> 00:51:25,880
Speaker 4: I do have an organ fifteen to one in the

1068
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:29,279
Speaker 4: app Orgon fifteen to one ticket on hand. I also

1069
00:51:29,400 --> 00:51:32,239
Speaker 4: bet Orgon plus four, which has gone to three and

1070
00:51:32,239 --> 00:51:33,680
Speaker 4: a half. I would still bet three and a half.

1071
00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:36,239
Speaker 4: I'm not sure We'rean's gonna win this game, but they're

1072
00:51:36,239 --> 00:51:38,759
Speaker 4: going to cover this number. They're going to I'll take

1073
00:51:38,760 --> 00:51:42,520
Speaker 4: any bets they're going to cover this number. I think

1074
00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:45,320
Speaker 4: what's And that's tough to say because right now Indiana

1075
00:51:45,440 --> 00:51:48,160
Speaker 4: is playing so clean, it's almost immaculate. It's like a

1076
00:51:48,239 --> 00:51:51,640
Speaker 4: six h six oh set from Ladies Tennis. I mean,

1077
00:51:51,719 --> 00:51:55,000
Speaker 4: it's just insane, Like you can't even try to poke

1078
00:51:55,040 --> 00:51:57,799
Speaker 4: holes in the stats and the analytics and the game

1079
00:51:57,920 --> 00:52:00,440
Speaker 4: logs and the yards per play in the Signetti calls

1080
00:52:00,480 --> 00:52:03,200
Speaker 4: and watching him live on the field at the Rose

1081
00:52:03,239 --> 00:52:05,200
Speaker 4: Bowl like what he does, like when the defense is

1082
00:52:05,239 --> 00:52:06,880
Speaker 4: on the field, he stands completely back on the other

1083
00:52:06,960 --> 00:52:09,880
Speaker 4: side of the sidelines and just grabs his says one

1084
00:52:09,960 --> 00:52:12,560
Speaker 4: thing and then the whole defense changes. Like it's it's amazing.

1085
00:52:13,160 --> 00:52:14,960
Speaker 4: What is this team is like a machine, They're like

1086
00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 4: the Empire. It's crazy, But how is Oregon going to

1087
00:52:18,080 --> 00:52:20,320
Speaker 4: cover this number? And just let everybody know that is

1088
00:52:20,400 --> 00:52:23,200
Speaker 4: what I'm going into this pregame. I will be betting

1089
00:52:23,280 --> 00:52:26,520
Speaker 4: Indiana live if they fall to moneyline minus one ten

1090
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:28,759
Speaker 4: or have plus anywhere beside them.

1091
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:30,560
Speaker 5: I will be doing that. Not so much with Ole

1092
00:52:30,600 --> 00:52:32,040
Speaker 5: miss Miami. I am doing it here.

1093
00:52:32,760 --> 00:52:34,880
Speaker 4: So Oregon is the game is going in and I

1094
00:52:35,000 --> 00:52:36,640
Speaker 4: like the over here because if you go back and

1095
00:52:36,680 --> 00:52:38,640
Speaker 4: look at week seven, which I think you should throw

1096
00:52:38,640 --> 00:52:40,520
Speaker 4: out the window, but red zone and third downs are

1097
00:52:40,520 --> 00:52:43,560
Speaker 4: what determined that game, and Oregon has to be better

1098
00:52:43,680 --> 00:52:46,759
Speaker 4: in red zone attempts, both offensively and defensively, and in

1099
00:52:46,840 --> 00:52:48,440
Speaker 4: third down. If they're not, they're not gonna win this

1100
00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:51,000
Speaker 4: game at all. But I think there's an avenue to

1101
00:52:51,040 --> 00:52:52,600
Speaker 4: where this is a different team than what we saw

1102
00:52:52,680 --> 00:52:54,320
Speaker 4: in Week seven. I know you can go back and

1103
00:52:54,360 --> 00:52:55,960
Speaker 4: look at all the logs and see how they've kind

1104
00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:59,400
Speaker 4: of morphed and changed. Defensively. They grind it out the

1105
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:01,480
Speaker 4: Iowa game on the ground, but now they're missing their

1106
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:03,160
Speaker 4: biggest piece as a running back, they're going to have

1107
00:53:03,239 --> 00:53:05,960
Speaker 4: to pass it more, decoring more only at two targets

1108
00:53:06,000 --> 00:53:08,520
Speaker 4: against Texas Tech. I think they're playing a little koy

1109
00:53:08,560 --> 00:53:10,200
Speaker 4: with him. I think he's more healthy than they think

1110
00:53:10,560 --> 00:53:13,759
Speaker 4: Evan Stewart. We're gonna see the availability report is again

1111
00:53:13,880 --> 00:53:15,000
Speaker 4: coming out in five minutes as.

1112
00:53:14,920 --> 00:53:15,440
Speaker 5: We record this.

1113
00:53:17,320 --> 00:53:19,720
Speaker 4: They can't get it done on the ground because inside

1114
00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:22,759
Speaker 4: zone has been good for Oregon. They produced sixty three percent.

1115
00:53:22,840 --> 00:53:25,160
Speaker 4: But there's nothing you can run that Indiana can't sniff out.

1116
00:53:25,360 --> 00:53:28,200
Speaker 4: They've been a lead against every run concept. They've stopped

1117
00:53:28,200 --> 00:53:31,400
Speaker 4: everybody from running the ball. I expect Orgon to average

1118
00:53:31,440 --> 00:53:33,160
Speaker 4: maybe two and a half yards per play on the ground.

1119
00:53:33,560 --> 00:53:35,120
Speaker 5: That might be nice.

1120
00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:40,360
Speaker 4: Indiana's vulnerability is against the explosive pass. I mean their numbers.

1121
00:53:40,520 --> 00:53:42,120
Speaker 4: You look up and down, the whole entire thing is

1122
00:53:42,200 --> 00:53:45,800
Speaker 4: green except for one area, passing downs, explosives allowed and

1123
00:53:46,000 --> 00:53:50,120
Speaker 4: creating a contested catch. Passing downs explosives allowed eighty second

1124
00:53:50,120 --> 00:53:54,040
Speaker 4: in the nation, creating a contested catch sixty second. You

1125
00:53:54,080 --> 00:53:56,640
Speaker 4: can go out to CFB stats, they're outside the top

1126
00:53:56,960 --> 00:53:59,200
Speaker 4: twenty five when it comes to allowing ten plus and

1127
00:53:59,280 --> 00:54:00,520
Speaker 4: twenty plus yard passes.

1128
00:54:01,400 --> 00:54:05,279
Speaker 3: Now that's a little aggressive defense. They're gonna allow some

1129
00:54:06,200 --> 00:54:07,160
Speaker 3: place to get behind them.

1130
00:54:07,480 --> 00:54:10,239
Speaker 4: And if that happens here, you know they have to

1131
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:12,400
Speaker 4: be good enough in tackling. And I'm just trying to

1132
00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:14,160
Speaker 4: make a case to say this is how Oregon's gonna

1133
00:54:14,200 --> 00:54:17,120
Speaker 4: work downfield. It's a fast track. It kind of plays

1134
00:54:17,160 --> 00:54:19,840
Speaker 4: into their favor. We'll see if they can keep Dante

1135
00:54:19,920 --> 00:54:21,920
Speaker 4: Moore up. We'll see if he and by the way,

1136
00:54:21,920 --> 00:54:25,080
Speaker 4: against Texas Tech, average depth of targets six point two yards,

1137
00:54:25,120 --> 00:54:27,080
Speaker 4: but they still had a half dozen explosive plays in

1138
00:54:27,120 --> 00:54:29,839
Speaker 4: the passing game. They're allowing their receivers to do all

1139
00:54:29,920 --> 00:54:32,760
Speaker 4: the work. It's not really Dante Moore like looking deep shots.

1140
00:54:32,800 --> 00:54:35,200
Speaker 4: He will take a shot. Really, the wide receivers are

1141
00:54:35,360 --> 00:54:37,799
Speaker 4: at the beef of this offense. But Indiana is only

1142
00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:40,399
Speaker 4: forty six and creating pass breakups. And if Oregon wants

1143
00:54:40,400 --> 00:54:41,800
Speaker 4: to win, they've got to go to the air. And

1144
00:54:41,920 --> 00:54:44,160
Speaker 4: Dante Morre's fifty eight percent against Cover three, he gets

1145
00:54:44,200 --> 00:54:47,759
Speaker 4: to see it again. Indiana's defense hasn't changed, and they

1146
00:54:47,920 --> 00:54:51,600
Speaker 4: allowed nine explosive passes in total against Ohio State and

1147
00:54:51,640 --> 00:54:55,360
Speaker 4: Alabama and consecutive games. So if Oregon can have a

1148
00:54:55,360 --> 00:54:57,839
Speaker 4: little better red zone luck, I think they can get

1149
00:54:57,840 --> 00:54:59,520
Speaker 4: points on the board and have enough to get the

1150
00:54:59,600 --> 00:55:02,359
Speaker 4: over and to cover this game. But the real change

1151
00:55:02,400 --> 00:55:04,200
Speaker 4: is on the defense, and I don't think a lot

1152
00:55:04,200 --> 00:55:07,000
Speaker 4: of people are talking about this. I mean, yeah, I've

1153
00:55:07,120 --> 00:55:09,760
Speaker 4: been a big proponent of Indiana and Kaylen Black running

1154
00:55:09,800 --> 00:55:12,279
Speaker 4: power and Roman him be running inside zone. Like I said,

1155
00:55:12,320 --> 00:55:16,080
Speaker 4: they are immaculate. They are just tearing everybody apart. But

1156
00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:19,400
Speaker 4: Oregon has completely changed their defense. They've made a small

1157
00:55:19,440 --> 00:55:21,080
Speaker 4: little change on the back end, and not a lot

1158
00:55:21,080 --> 00:55:23,480
Speaker 4: of people are talking about Tosh Lapoi decided to leave

1159
00:55:23,520 --> 00:55:26,239
Speaker 4: a Cover three, go to a Cover two hybrid and

1160
00:55:26,360 --> 00:55:29,680
Speaker 4: have Dylan Thiam and Rome. Like Caleb Downs at Ohio State,

1161
00:55:30,480 --> 00:55:32,560
Speaker 4: it sucked against James Madison.

1162
00:55:32,840 --> 00:55:33,400
Speaker 5: I watched that.

1163
00:55:33,520 --> 00:55:35,360
Speaker 4: I watched the All twenty two on that they couldn't

1164
00:55:35,360 --> 00:55:37,399
Speaker 4: tackle anybody. They were letting everybody go by. I don't

1165
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:40,080
Speaker 4: think Vianeman even knew how to play this roaming You

1166
00:55:40,160 --> 00:55:44,520
Speaker 4: go back and watch Texas Tech five misstackles. They dominated

1167
00:55:44,600 --> 00:55:47,120
Speaker 4: them every single part of the defense. And they've and

1168
00:55:47,239 --> 00:55:50,359
Speaker 4: Lapoy has thrown this little wrinkle in that's allowing them

1169
00:55:50,440 --> 00:55:52,279
Speaker 4: to kind of play Caleb Downs what he was doing

1170
00:55:52,360 --> 00:55:54,080
Speaker 4: last year in the playoff. And they've even admitted like

1171
00:55:54,160 --> 00:55:56,480
Speaker 4: this is what Iowa State did with through their defense

1172
00:55:56,520 --> 00:55:59,680
Speaker 4: in the playoff. So I think when you look at

1173
00:55:59,719 --> 00:56:02,600
Speaker 4: it from that perspective and the fact that Oregon is

1174
00:56:02,680 --> 00:56:05,040
Speaker 4: sixth and PFF coverage and their tenth in creating a

1175
00:56:05,080 --> 00:56:08,320
Speaker 4: contested catch. I just talked about Indiana. They can't contest

1176
00:56:08,360 --> 00:56:11,120
Speaker 4: catches and they don't create PBUs but Oregon does at

1177
00:56:11,120 --> 00:56:13,760
Speaker 4: a top ten level. And here's the stat I couldn't believe.

1178
00:56:14,640 --> 00:56:17,160
Speaker 4: Did you guys know the Fernando Mendoza has created a

1179
00:56:17,200 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 4: big time throw against every single FBS team on the

1180
00:56:20,160 --> 00:56:23,440
Speaker 4: Indiana schedule except one team. He didn't have one against

1181
00:56:23,440 --> 00:56:25,879
Speaker 4: Oregon in Week seven. He had, oh, we were.

1182
00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:29,000
Speaker 3: Throwing out that game. He didn't have a big time

1183
00:56:29,080 --> 00:56:31,080
Speaker 3: throw the ten point win on the road with even

1184
00:56:31,120 --> 00:56:32,640
Speaker 3: with a pick six, we're throwing that out right.

1185
00:56:33,480 --> 00:56:37,319
Speaker 4: Well, listen, Fernando Mendoza did not have a good game

1186
00:56:37,480 --> 00:56:38,360
Speaker 4: against Orgon.

1187
00:56:38,680 --> 00:56:40,600
Speaker 1: You know who do have a good game against Oregon though,

1188
00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:43,799
Speaker 1: Elijah surat and they had no answers for him.

1189
00:56:43,880 --> 00:56:44,520
Speaker 3: Eight catches, one.

1190
00:56:44,480 --> 00:56:47,320
Speaker 1: Hundred and twenty two yards, touchdown. I think he's a

1191
00:56:47,440 --> 00:56:50,360
Speaker 1: problem in terms of what they're able to do rolling

1192
00:56:50,440 --> 00:56:53,239
Speaker 1: coverage his way and the other part of it in

1193
00:56:53,400 --> 00:56:57,920
Speaker 1: terms of throwing into this Indiana defense. Ja Corean Moore

1194
00:56:58,040 --> 00:57:00,640
Speaker 1: was healthy in that game, Sadiq was healthy. They had

1195
00:57:00,719 --> 00:57:04,360
Speaker 1: six catches total for sixty yards. If that is replicated

1196
00:57:04,400 --> 00:57:06,520
Speaker 1: in any way, shape or form, if that duo does

1197
00:57:06,600 --> 00:57:09,000
Speaker 1: not go for one hundred yards, I think Oregon's drawn dead.

1198
00:57:09,080 --> 00:57:09,680
Speaker 5: It wasn't.

1199
00:57:11,400 --> 00:57:12,479
Speaker 3: Was the best player on offense.

1200
00:57:12,520 --> 00:57:14,640
Speaker 4: Their game plan was to line up and try to

1201
00:57:14,640 --> 00:57:16,480
Speaker 4: punch them in the face with the run game, and that's.

1202
00:57:16,360 --> 00:57:18,560
Speaker 1: Not But they also had a game flow in the

1203
00:57:18,600 --> 00:57:20,840
Speaker 1: second half where they needed to throw the ball to

1204
00:57:20,960 --> 00:57:22,520
Speaker 1: be able to get back in it, and they couldn't

1205
00:57:22,520 --> 00:57:22,720
Speaker 1: do it.

1206
00:57:22,840 --> 00:57:28,080
Speaker 3: So I tried twenty dropbacks. Yeah, Datison was their best player,

1207
00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:30,800
Speaker 3: and he's gonna be out of the broken claviical. The

1208
00:57:30,920 --> 00:57:34,160
Speaker 3: one change for the Oregon offense is they have they

1209
00:57:34,200 --> 00:57:37,520
Speaker 3: have finally realized that Benson is better than Bryant has

1210
00:57:37,600 --> 00:57:41,480
Speaker 3: now been pretty much phased out of the rotation. Johnson's

1211
00:57:41,520 --> 00:57:44,080
Speaker 3: emergence as well. I think the Oregon offense is a

1212
00:57:44,120 --> 00:57:47,400
Speaker 3: little bit better than it was then, but Indiana continues

1213
00:57:47,400 --> 00:57:48,920
Speaker 3: to improve. I mean, I just think this goes back

1214
00:57:48,920 --> 00:57:52,840
Speaker 3: to like what the Alabama handicap Indiana Alabama. One team's

1215
00:57:52,840 --> 00:57:54,480
Speaker 3: gonna be able to run the ball, and one team's

1216
00:57:54,480 --> 00:57:58,400
Speaker 3: going to be able to generate more pressure consistently. And

1217
00:57:58,440 --> 00:58:02,280
Speaker 3: then Indiana is the most like the most well executing

1218
00:58:02,320 --> 00:58:05,960
Speaker 3: team in the country. So I think that's that's the difference.

1219
00:58:06,680 --> 00:58:06,880
Speaker 5: Listen.

1220
00:58:06,960 --> 00:58:09,000
Speaker 4: I think Indiana is going to create methodicals. They're gonna

1221
00:58:09,040 --> 00:58:11,080
Speaker 4: into scoring position, but they're not going to have explosive plays.

1222
00:58:11,080 --> 00:58:13,120
Speaker 4: They're not gonna have explosive passes, and him Be and

1223
00:58:13,200 --> 00:58:15,840
Speaker 4: Kaylen Black are gonna get tackled first time they get touched.

1224
00:58:16,480 --> 00:58:19,000
Speaker 3: So you mentioned that Indiana gives up explosives, I mean

1225
00:58:19,480 --> 00:58:22,440
Speaker 3: organs pass explosive. They're like in like the sixty fifth percentile.

1226
00:58:22,520 --> 00:58:26,360
Speaker 3: This isn't like an old miss passing offensive passing attack.

1227
00:58:26,600 --> 00:58:30,720
Speaker 3: And like you said that oh Alabama and Ohio State,

1228
00:58:30,760 --> 00:58:32,840
Speaker 3: who might have the two best receiving corps. I'll take

1229
00:58:32,960 --> 00:58:37,320
Speaker 3: Alabama and Ohio State's three wide receivers over Oregons. He

1230
00:58:37,400 --> 00:58:40,120
Speaker 3: said that they hit you know, six explosives they combined

1231
00:58:40,160 --> 00:58:48,120
Speaker 3: for thirteen points nine nine exos thirteen points combined, and

1232
00:58:48,520 --> 00:58:50,000
Speaker 3: those teams are more explosive than order.

1233
00:58:50,120 --> 00:58:53,320
Speaker 4: I said, the results have to change in the red zone, right,

1234
00:58:53,680 --> 00:58:56,760
Speaker 4: Indiana can be taken in their secondary and they.

1235
00:58:56,680 --> 00:58:59,720
Speaker 3: Gave up thirteen combined points to Alabama and Ohio State.

1236
00:59:00,000 --> 00:59:03,040
Speaker 4: Can you take Orgon to cover two in what game

1237
00:59:04,080 --> 00:59:05,120
Speaker 4: against Indiana?

1238
00:59:05,200 --> 00:59:05,320
Speaker 5: Here?

1239
00:59:05,920 --> 00:59:07,880
Speaker 3: No I had Indiana in that game, thanks for asking,

1240
00:59:07,960 --> 00:59:12,320
Speaker 3: Colin this game, no I have Indiana. Oh okay, well,

1241
00:59:12,360 --> 00:59:14,440
Speaker 3: well I have Indiana money line to close out some parlays.

1242
00:59:14,520 --> 00:59:16,200
Speaker 4: All right, I mean I'll be on an island here,

1243
00:59:16,240 --> 00:59:17,800
Speaker 4: but Orgon's covering, so.

1244
00:59:18,640 --> 00:59:21,520
Speaker 3: All right, we shall see. That'll do it. This is

1245
00:59:21,680 --> 00:59:25,120
Speaker 3: I like when we disagree, get some differing viewpoints late

1246
00:59:25,160 --> 00:59:27,240
Speaker 3: in the season, but before we do get out of here,

1247
00:59:27,600 --> 00:59:29,720
Speaker 3: as you do on all of our bowl season previews,

1248
00:59:30,520 --> 00:59:34,320
Speaker 3: it's time for our DraftKings parlay. We'll each pick our

1249
00:59:34,360 --> 00:59:37,720
Speaker 3: favorite play from this episode, throwing a parlay over at DraftKings.

1250
00:59:38,560 --> 00:59:43,160
Speaker 3: Let's give your favorite single bet from this podcast. I'm

1251
00:59:43,240 --> 00:59:46,280
Speaker 3: just gonna throw out Indiana money line. Get it done.

1252
00:59:46,320 --> 00:59:49,120
Speaker 3: We'll start things there, Colin, what do you want to

1253
00:59:49,160 --> 00:59:49,400
Speaker 3: throw in?

1254
00:59:49,720 --> 00:59:52,120
Speaker 4: Amy d kuon Wright over twenty five and a half

1255
00:59:52,240 --> 00:59:55,000
Speaker 4: receiving yards for old Miss Trinidad. Shambliss is going to

1256
00:59:55,040 --> 00:59:57,000
Speaker 4: go to the air over the middle between the hash

1257
00:59:57,080 --> 00:59:59,560
Speaker 4: marks and who has been the big target and the biggest.

1258
00:59:59,240 --> 00:59:59,760
Speaker 5: Games of season.

1259
01:00:00,040 --> 01:00:02,840
Speaker 4: It's Georgia Alabama, doesn't matter who will miss has play

1260
01:00:02,920 --> 01:00:04,520
Speaker 4: Dake one right has played a big role in the

1261
01:00:04,560 --> 01:00:06,360
Speaker 4: biggest games. Give me over twenty five and a half

1262
01:00:06,360 --> 01:00:07,000
Speaker 4: receiving yards.

1263
01:00:07,600 --> 01:00:10,720
Speaker 3: Duck, you're rolling back with the Miami Ole Miss first

1264
01:00:10,760 --> 01:00:11,240
Speaker 3: half under.

1265
01:00:12,040 --> 01:00:13,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll use that one here too. You know, I

1266
01:00:14,040 --> 01:00:17,880
Speaker 2: could support an Indiana money line position as well, but

1267
01:00:18,120 --> 01:00:21,280
Speaker 2: we'll go first half under here. I've covered it pretty extensively,

1268
01:00:21,400 --> 01:00:23,840
Speaker 2: but I feel pretty strong about where that's gonna end up.

1269
01:00:24,520 --> 01:00:26,640
Speaker 3: And Mike, you're closing things out with you.

1270
01:00:27,640 --> 01:00:29,600
Speaker 1: You lay in three and a half, you'd be hard

1271
01:00:29,640 --> 01:00:32,320
Speaker 1: pressed to find three better wins. They beat A and M,

1272
01:00:32,480 --> 01:00:35,200
Speaker 1: they beat Notre Dame, they beat Ohio State. They're gonna

1273
01:00:35,200 --> 01:00:36,680
Speaker 1: beat Ole Miss and cover this number.

1274
01:00:37,440 --> 01:00:40,000
Speaker 3: So we got daquon right over receiving yards Miami al

1275
01:00:40,040 --> 01:00:42,040
Speaker 3: mioss first half under Miami minus three and a half.

1276
01:00:42,080 --> 01:00:44,840
Speaker 3: Indiana money line pays ten to one over at DraftKings.

1277
01:00:44,880 --> 01:00:46,720
Speaker 3: We'll drop a link in the podcast and YouTube description.

1278
01:00:47,160 --> 01:00:49,080
Speaker 3: We'll also tweet it out. Go use that link to

1279
01:00:49,120 --> 01:00:51,040
Speaker 3: instantly add the bet to your betslip at DraftKings and

1280
01:00:51,120 --> 01:00:54,000
Speaker 3: let's get it home. The crown is yours, by the way,

1281
01:00:54,120 --> 01:01:00,200
Speaker 3: Part seven, our final episode will air. We'll record that

1282
01:01:00,440 --> 01:01:06,480
Speaker 3: on the fifteenth Thursday night, we'll preview the National Championship

1283
01:01:06,520 --> 01:01:11,080
Speaker 3: game as well as hand out the gambling Heisman. We'll

1284
01:01:11,120 --> 01:01:13,680
Speaker 3: go over the past winners. I'll give you a little teaser.

1285
01:01:13,720 --> 01:01:17,920
Speaker 3: Here are the nominees. David Bailey, Texas Tech, The Lucky

1286
01:01:18,000 --> 01:01:20,960
Speaker 3: sut In San Diego State, Brock Lowry Western Michigan, Bear

1287
01:01:21,080 --> 01:01:25,120
Speaker 3: Bachmeyer Buyu, Drew Mestemaker North Texas. I'll explain why those

1288
01:01:25,120 --> 01:01:28,400
Speaker 3: are the nomnies and we'll pick our winner on Thursday night.

1289
01:01:28,440 --> 01:01:31,560
Speaker 3: We'll also award our voicemail Caller of the Year. Go

1290
01:01:31,640 --> 01:01:35,360
Speaker 3: through some of the funniest voicemails of this season, and

1291
01:01:35,520 --> 01:01:38,160
Speaker 3: we will go live before the National Championship game on Monday.

1292
01:01:38,760 --> 01:01:43,720
Speaker 3: The nineteenth College Bass episodes are back. I'll be joining

1293
01:01:43,760 --> 01:01:48,600
Speaker 3: the Fold after the National Championship back on those normal episodes,

1294
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Speaker 3: but we will there's our our episodes that are coming

1295
01:01:51,240 --> 01:01:54,920
Speaker 3: out weekly to make sure you check out those. And

1296
01:01:55,000 --> 01:01:56,480
Speaker 3: if you want to tail some of the bets we

1297
01:01:56,560 --> 01:01:59,480
Speaker 3: discussed today, look for the quick slip link in the

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01:01:59,520 --> 01:02:01,760
Speaker 3: video on pot guest description or visit Action network dot

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01:02:01,800 --> 01:02:05,760
Speaker 3: com slash bet now. Thanks to Colin, Mike and Duck

1300
01:02:05,800 --> 01:02:07,320
Speaker 3: for joining me. Thanks to our producer David on the

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01:02:07,400 --> 01:02:09,000
Speaker 3: back end. Most importantly, thanks to all of you for

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01:02:09,080 --> 01:02:12,640
Speaker 3: tuning in. If we've won you any money all year long,

1303
01:02:12,800 --> 01:02:15,360
Speaker 3: or you've enjoyed the podcast, make sure you subscribe on Subscribe, Subscribe,

1304
01:02:15,400 --> 01:02:17,320
Speaker 3: tell friends, telling enemy in Legal five star of you.

1305
01:02:17,360 --> 01:02:19,520
Speaker 3: They really help us out. Thanks again for tuning in.

1306
01:02:19,640 --> 01:02:22,440
Speaker 3: Good luck on all of your wagers. Only three college

1307
01:02:22,480 --> 01:02:25,520
Speaker 3: football games left, enjoy them, and good luck on all

1308
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Speaker 3: of your wagers. We will see you next week. Cheers.

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01:02:46,280 --> 01:02:49,720
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1310
01:02:50,160 --> 01:02:52,920
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1311
01:02:53,280 --> 01:02:55,880
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

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Speaker 2: hundred Gambler