1 00:00:13,640 --> 00:00:16,239 Speaker 1: Hey, everyone, welcome to another episode of a Market Disruptor Show, 2 00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:19,720 Speaker 1: a very special edition. As we are sitting outside over 3 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:21,959 Speaker 1: one of my favorite pieces of the earth in the 4 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:24,480 Speaker 1: entire world, a friend with him. I'm joined by my 5 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 1: friend Lee or aganst here. He's the founder of the 6 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:32,200 Speaker 1: Wealth Research Group. He's an international investor who's from Israel, 7 00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:35,519 Speaker 1: and he has a very unique perspective on what's going 8 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:38,600 Speaker 1: on with the financial system and especially in regards to 9 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:40,960 Speaker 1: the world. So conversation that we've been trying to set 10 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 1: up for a really long time. I'm glad we could 11 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:44,159 Speaker 1: do this one in person. We are. Thanks so much 12 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 1: for joining us today. Thanks for having yeah so, uh boy, 13 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:49,159 Speaker 1: Like I said, we've been trying to line this up 14 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 1: for a while. I know we we talked quite a 15 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:53,360 Speaker 1: bit um and you have such a unique perspective that 16 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 1: I'm happy to dig into today and share with everybody. 17 00:00:56,560 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 1: But but you know, I know you obviously we've talked 18 00:00:58,480 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 1: for quite a long long time. But why don't you 19 00:00:59,880 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 1: get to people in the background as to uh, what 20 00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 1: is that you're working on and looking at what you do? 21 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 1: Absolutely uh So. Wealth researcherpe dot com is a free 22 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 1: financial newsletter I birthed wealth research tupe dot com in 23 00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 1: early because the FED raised rates on UM for the 24 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:19,320 Speaker 1: first time in years in December fift And my backstory 25 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:23,560 Speaker 1: is sort of a tragedy. Um. When I was thirteen, 26 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:26,400 Speaker 1: my dad went bankrupt. His business went bankrupt, and he 27 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 1: literally told me go out and go out there into 28 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 1: the world, start making money. So I baby said, I 29 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:33,920 Speaker 1: did all sorts of things to save money. And by 30 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 1: the time sixteen mark, I have like t saved up. 31 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:39,679 Speaker 1: This says, yeah, this is the here two thousand I was, 32 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:42,679 Speaker 1: you know, and this is in Israel. This is so 33 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 1: I'm babysitting, I'm I'm coaching basketball, I'm handing out flyers. 34 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 1: I'm doing everything and just saving, saving, saving, And the banker, 35 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 1: when I was sixteen, he says, look, you have money 36 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 1: in this account. Why don't you start making money? Working 37 00:01:55,320 --> 00:01:58,280 Speaker 1: obviously foreign to me. He told me, get your parents here. 38 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:00,840 Speaker 1: They can sign a waiver as a minor. You can 39 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 1: start trading. And it was back then it was mutual funds. 40 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 1: And I got them to do that, and then I 41 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 1: told him, like, how should I start? And he gave 42 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:13,040 Speaker 1: me two books Peter Lynch Warren Buffett. I'm sixty books. Yeah, 43 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:16,240 Speaker 1: I'm sixteen. I'm thinking about like what to do with 44 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 1: those two books. And I'm one of those kids in 45 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:20,080 Speaker 1: high school where it's like the history book and then 46 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:23,040 Speaker 1: a warm buffet book inside. And Warren Buffett gave me 47 00:02:23,080 --> 00:02:26,240 Speaker 1: the idea that brands matter, and Peter Lynch gave me 48 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 1: the idea that I can do it because his book 49 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:31,639 Speaker 1: is all about his daughter's teenage daughter picking like his 50 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 1: best his best winners, UM. And so that's how I 51 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 1: got into business, entrepreneurship, investing UM. And I really like 52 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 1: the fact that these billionaires read, write books and want 53 00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:47,520 Speaker 1: to teach. And so that's how my news are started 54 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:49,920 Speaker 1: because I was trying to empower other people with the 55 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 1: same sorts of ideas. Now I'm curious. I know about 56 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:57,840 Speaker 1: half the audience is international, and I know mostly what 57 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: I focused on is the United States market, Central Bank, 58 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:04,120 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve, etcetera. But I always say that, you know, 59 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:07,760 Speaker 1: it's a global financial system, and what happens with the dollar, 60 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 1: because it's the reserve currency of the world, affects the 61 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 1: rest of the world. But I'm curious coming from Israel, UM, 62 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 1: and obviously it's at the time sixteen you were in 63 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:19,119 Speaker 1: Israel and you you you've got investor books. Warren Buffett 64 00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:21,919 Speaker 1: one of the greatest well known investors in the United States. 65 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 1: I mean, you started investing your money. Were you invested 66 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 1: into US markets or you invested into Israel markets. So 67 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 1: Israel's market is so small compared to the United States. 68 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 1: And that's exactly what they teach you in Israel, like 69 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 1: if you if you want the opportunity and especially in 70 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:41,760 Speaker 1: the global world, go to the United States. Okay, it's 71 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 1: amazing how you know, with a flick of a button 72 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 1: you can buy equities in the world's best financial market 73 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:52,480 Speaker 1: with the biggest companies. You have nothing to do with America. 74 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 1: You've never been to America at sixteen, and you can 75 00:03:56,120 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 1: own a piece of business that's running and the other 76 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 1: side of the ocean. So immediately I flocked there. What 77 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 1: happened to me was I started selling clothes at thirteen, 78 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 1: So what I knew were clothing brands, and so Buffett 79 00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 1: gave me the idea that I need to go with 80 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:16,800 Speaker 1: the powerful brand, and Peter Lynch gave me the idea 81 00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:18,479 Speaker 1: that I need this only stick with what I know. 82 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 1: So I I started to research all these different brands, 83 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 1: and I learned that they're all owned by this holding 84 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 1: company that's a hundred years old. So my first stock 85 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 1: that I bought is a company that's still around. It's 86 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:34,480 Speaker 1: it's been around since the late eighteen nineties. It's stock 87 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:37,680 Speaker 1: price went from sixteen I'm sorry, from six dollars when 88 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:41,480 Speaker 1: I bought it to now approximately a hundred uh dollars 89 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:44,360 Speaker 1: a share, so in like twenty years and it's dividend 90 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:48,960 Speaker 1: has increased by seven It's a different aristocrat type company, 91 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:53,039 Speaker 1: which I love. Um. And and that that's really the 92 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:58,200 Speaker 1: essence of my investing style. Good powerful brands and and 93 00:04:58,200 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 1: and at the same time something that I can under 94 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:03,960 Speaker 1: stand the competitive landscape as much as I can. Yeah, 95 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 1: what what a great story. UM. I love it for 96 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 1: a couple of reasons. One, UM, it shows that anybody 97 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:13,760 Speaker 1: can do this, not to say you're not extraordinary, but 98 00:05:13,960 --> 00:05:15,840 Speaker 1: when you were young, you just started doing odd jobs 99 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:17,840 Speaker 1: and you saved up money. So first it starts with 100 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 1: living on less than you earn, so you can save money. 101 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:23,600 Speaker 1: Only when you save money do you have money or 102 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 1: capital to deploy. So that's kind of the first step. 103 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:28,440 Speaker 1: So I love that. UM. And then no matter where 104 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:31,040 Speaker 1: you were in the world, you found the best markets, right, 105 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:32,479 Speaker 1: and so a lot of times people feel like they're 106 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:34,920 Speaker 1: stuck in a local area, but the whole world is 107 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 1: open to us. Today. Hey guys, let me just interrupt 108 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:41,040 Speaker 1: this interview real quick, just to plug the show sponsor, 109 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:44,080 Speaker 1: and that is Block five. Now. Block five is doing 110 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 1: amazing things in the bitcoin finance space. As a matter 111 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: of fact, they've cracked some really big news by bringing 112 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:53,159 Speaker 1: on the x c ftc UM chair Chris gian Carlo 113 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 1: Um and they are one of the most transparent, most 114 00:05:56,520 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 1: heavily regulated UM companies inside the United States, which gives 115 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 1: me a lot of trust into what their services are. Now, 116 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:05,240 Speaker 1: I've recently did a video talking about how to retire 117 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:08,520 Speaker 1: off bitcoin, and you can do that by leveraging debt 118 00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 1: and interest against bitcoin. And Block five is the number 119 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 1: one company in the United States or maybe in the 120 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 1: world to go to and use UM. They are leading 121 00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:19,719 Speaker 1: the charges there paying interest on your bitcoin if you 122 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:22,160 Speaker 1: park it with them, or you can borrow against it. Now, 123 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:24,239 Speaker 1: as I broke down in that video, you can borrow 124 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:27,320 Speaker 1: against your bitcoin, and when you take debt against it, 125 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 1: it's not taxable. It's not taxable. Event you can use 126 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:31,600 Speaker 1: that debt for anything that you want, including to live 127 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 1: off of, to leverage up and buy more, or roll 128 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:36,320 Speaker 1: it into another asset. UM you can do something like 129 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 1: I've done recently, like sell some real estate put that 130 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:41,920 Speaker 1: money into bitcoin. Now as that bitcoin price has risen, 131 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:44,040 Speaker 1: I'm able to borrow against it and go back and 132 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:46,480 Speaker 1: buy the same real estate or something similar, and I 133 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:49,600 Speaker 1: still own the bitcoin, and I also own the new 134 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:51,640 Speaker 1: asset as well. Lots of ways you can do this, 135 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 1: um and block five is the company that I recommend. 136 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:56,600 Speaker 1: Down in the description, I have a link that you 137 00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:58,360 Speaker 1: can click on. If you choose to use that link, 138 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 1: you can earn up the two fifty dollars bitcoin just 139 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:02,919 Speaker 1: for using that link. So check out block fine now. 140 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 1: So I love those key pieces. Now, Um, what you 141 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 1: say is you're investing style is a little bit different 142 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 1: than what I know you from. Uh. You know, I 143 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 1: think that investing in the best brands per Warren Buffett, 144 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:17,280 Speaker 1: the value investing If you will buy the best brands, 145 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 1: hold them forever, like he's on Coca Cola forever. It 146 00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 1: seems to work good. It doesn't seem like it works 147 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 1: good today, mainly because businesses aren't in the business of 148 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:30,280 Speaker 1: making money anymore. It seems like businesses are in the 149 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 1: money of raising money, maybe increasing sales, but not actually 150 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:37,520 Speaker 1: making money as in making profits. And it seems like 151 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 1: warm buffets had a pretty rough time the last decade 152 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:42,840 Speaker 1: or so. What are your thoughts on that? So a 153 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:46,119 Speaker 1: couple of great insights there, and I think, uh, what's 154 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 1: most important is these companies that are now uh starting 155 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:53,160 Speaker 1: to operate and are growing, they have a really different 156 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 1: business model. They're not trying to get to profitability. What 157 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 1: they're trying to do is get to enough market share 158 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 1: so that customers flocked to them and they want to 159 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 1: sell that company to another company. That is how their 160 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 1: business model is. They don't care for their perpetually losing money. 161 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 1: All they care about is their brand value is increasing. 162 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 1: They get more sales, more you know, more attention of 163 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 1: the market, and then they can sell it to an 164 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:20,080 Speaker 1: operator that knows how to cut the fat and create 165 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 1: an actual business from it as Uber for you. That's 166 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:26,480 Speaker 1: tests like such all these companies that at the beginning, 167 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:30,760 Speaker 1: but yes they're losing money perpetually, but they're gaining market 168 00:08:30,760 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 1: share and they're just looking for that strategic buyer to 169 00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:37,600 Speaker 1: buy them out, and Buffett has been underperforming the markets 170 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 1: for almost two decades. One thing that I that I 171 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 1: think is really important about Buffett is he has a 172 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 1: blind spot for gold. For example, because Berkshire has an 173 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 1: insane amount of cash on hand at all times, and 174 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 1: if he, instead of looking for ways to park that 175 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:57,560 Speaker 1: money and treasuries, would part that money in gold. For 176 00:08:57,600 --> 00:08:59,839 Speaker 1: the past two decades, for example, when gold was too 177 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 1: at the announced now it's announced, Berkshire would have already 178 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:06,600 Speaker 1: been a trillion dollar company just because of its cash position. 179 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 1: So he has a huge blind spot with that, and 180 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:11,600 Speaker 1: we don't, you know, we don't have to to go 181 00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 1: into a great detail about his blind spots with technology. 182 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:19,320 Speaker 1: He missed Visos, he missed you know, Steve Jobs, et cetera, 183 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:22,839 Speaker 1: a lot of people, UH missed those people. But he 184 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 1: had Bill Gates on his board of directors and he's 185 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:31,280 Speaker 1: never invested in Microsoft. So I find that Buffett doesn't 186 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:35,199 Speaker 1: have uh that kind of an open mind or open 187 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 1: mindedness to investing in general. He likes and he calls 188 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:43,200 Speaker 1: it a circle of confidence. He likes to stay within 189 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:46,120 Speaker 1: these companies that he really understands. And I get that, 190 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:52,600 Speaker 1: But your channel is all about these three converging trends, 191 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:56,920 Speaker 1: these big trends. And I remember when I read about Marconi, 192 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 1: the inventor of the radio, whose family one the institutionalize 193 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:04,600 Speaker 1: them when he told them that there's invisible waves around 194 00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 1: the globe that I can connect people with, they were like, 195 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:12,719 Speaker 1: are you you mad? And so his their minds were 196 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:16,480 Speaker 1: not as revolutionary as they needed to be at that time. 197 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:20,240 Speaker 1: And I feel like that's Buffett's mistake. He's just not open. 198 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:23,960 Speaker 1: What maybe his mistake though, is as you said, it's 199 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:25,839 Speaker 1: his circle of competence. And what also what you said 200 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:28,320 Speaker 1: with Peter Lynch is invest in what you know. So 201 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 1: what I try to tell people is everybody has their 202 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 1: own individual investor d n A. So I have my 203 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 1: own once needs and desires, my own time frame, my 204 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 1: own risk tolerances. But I also have my own interests. 205 00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:41,959 Speaker 1: And so in order to be really good at something, 206 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:43,719 Speaker 1: you've got to put the time in. And if I'm 207 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:45,800 Speaker 1: not interested in if I don't like it, I'm never 208 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:49,080 Speaker 1: gonna put the time in this right And so um, 209 00:10:49,120 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 1: if you if you jump into stuff that you haven't 210 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 1: put the time into, it increases your risk level. And 211 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:57,480 Speaker 1: so we're always trying to investor risk. Now, most beginning 212 00:10:57,520 --> 00:11:00,480 Speaker 1: investors don't have this part right, which is they invest 213 00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 1: for the upside, whereas when you find more professional investors 214 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:05,760 Speaker 1: always trying to manage the downside. And so if you're 215 00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:08,840 Speaker 1: started investing stuff you don't know, it increases that risk. Um, 216 00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 1: So is it? So? I do understand what you're saying, 217 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 1: the blind spots, but it's worked out pretty well for him. 218 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 1: So do you think more people should invest in what 219 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 1: they know or spend the time to know that stuff better. Absolutely? 220 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 1: But my point is that he should grow his circle 221 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 1: of competence. It almost seems like it's that is fixated. 222 00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 1: He doesn't want to leave that circle of competence and 223 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 1: spend the time to grow it and and and grow 224 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:36,880 Speaker 1: with the times. Insurance is his crown jewel. But you know, okay, 225 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:40,079 Speaker 1: so increase that circle of competence. I think that's amazing. 226 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:43,080 Speaker 1: Another thing that's amazing, Mark is that you can find 227 00:11:43,160 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 1: now instead of hunt for the deals, hunt for the company, 228 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:49,319 Speaker 1: spend all the time and looking at a specific investment, 229 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:52,920 Speaker 1: why don't you hunt the hunters? So that's something I 230 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 1: focused on the last two years. Why don't I spend 231 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:59,960 Speaker 1: the time to build the relationships with fund managers, which 232 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:02,559 Speaker 1: this is what they would do. They they would spend 233 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 1: all this time. So I like to now hunt for 234 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 1: hunters that so instead right there, exactly, it's a time 235 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 1: at I remember two thousand and eight, I go to Phoenix, Arizona. 236 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:17,679 Speaker 1: I try to look for deals after the crash, and 237 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 1: I spend all day driving in a van with a 238 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 1: realtor trying to find one deal in a month, because 239 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 1: you're going for these under the radar, below market deals. 240 00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:30,559 Speaker 1: And thirty days later, I have one deal in hand. 241 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:36,520 Speaker 1: After after uh, you know, offering hundreds of of offers, 242 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:40,240 Speaker 1: of writing everything up, it seemed insane. And so what 243 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:42,240 Speaker 1: I did was I said, how can I flip this? 244 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 1: What company provides this value that I can invest in directly? 245 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:49,599 Speaker 1: And that opened my mind to hunting for hunters and 246 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:52,280 Speaker 1: I've done it ever since. And I like that part 247 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 1: because you find one guy and you can ride with 248 00:12:56,200 --> 00:12:58,720 Speaker 1: him for years. So that's another thing that I just 249 00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:01,040 Speaker 1: like to throw out there. That's something that I talked 250 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:03,800 Speaker 1: about all the time, which is success leaves clues, and 251 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 1: so I always have used that as a shortcut to 252 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:08,920 Speaker 1: lots of success throughout my life. So when I'm evaluating 253 00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:12,079 Speaker 1: new companies, I'm always going to start with the team. 254 00:13:12,160 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 1: Does the team have a history of success? If they do, 255 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 1: then that shortcuts a lot of my work. Um. I 256 00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 1: always like to be I never want to be the 257 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 1: smartest person in the deal. So who's in the deal 258 00:13:22,640 --> 00:13:25,560 Speaker 1: that's smarter than me? Again, following success the hunter if 259 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:28,680 Speaker 1: you will, uh, or just following the hunters as you said, 260 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:31,360 Speaker 1: that's that's that's a great piece of advice. Um. Now 261 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:35,120 Speaker 1: you started at sixteen, you started investing into this kind 262 00:13:35,160 --> 00:13:37,080 Speaker 1: of value world. As we've talked about the thing the 263 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:40,560 Speaker 1: markets have changed, Buffett hasn't been keeping up with the 264 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:43,319 Speaker 1: markets in the last two decades, as you said, So, 265 00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:45,600 Speaker 1: where do you see the state of the market and 266 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:47,840 Speaker 1: investing today? I mean, it seems like it's a pretty 267 00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:51,480 Speaker 1: dangerous world right now. What's your kind of big worldview 268 00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:53,959 Speaker 1: that we can kind of dive into. Absolutely, I think 269 00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:57,959 Speaker 1: in general, we've reached a point where interest rates are 270 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:02,040 Speaker 1: not going to uh go through what they did in 271 00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:04,560 Speaker 1: the late seventies, where there's gonna be a new fed 272 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 1: chair after Poe's gone and he's gonna say, Okay, we 273 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:11,400 Speaker 1: need to kill this environment of artificially low rates. I 274 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:14,640 Speaker 1: think this is not artificially low. I think this is it. 275 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:19,359 Speaker 1: The financial system as it's built today is not equipped 276 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 1: to normalize rates where they're like three or four or five. 277 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 1: Two reasons. One, we don't live in a vacuum. America 278 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:35,280 Speaker 1: already pays the best rate to its lenders, the highest, 279 00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 1: the highest interest rate absolutely not all. Most of the 280 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:41,600 Speaker 1: world's negative already, and we're still paying a positive rate exactly. 281 00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 1: Most people don't think about that. You're you're not finding 282 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 1: just uh stocks versus bonds, you're finding other companies, other countries. 283 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:52,600 Speaker 1: That's why when Trump was around, he was like, Lord 284 00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 1: to zero, what's gonna happen? What's everybody is at zero? 285 00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:59,600 Speaker 1: So um, But obviously being the reserve currency, you have 286 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 1: other of things to consider, so I think that's important. 287 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 1: In December, they um the Federals ave signaled that their 288 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:12,800 Speaker 1: autopilot rate hikes are not over and they raised rates 289 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 1: to two point to five. And what happened The market 290 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 1: totally rejected that. It says enough two point two five, 291 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:24,080 Speaker 1: that's too much drop in one month for the SMP five. 292 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 1: Mutan called all these banks. It was like, are you 293 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:29,720 Speaker 1: all right? Are you capitalized. Nothing was wrong. There was 294 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:32,600 Speaker 1: nothing wrong except interest rates were two point two five 295 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:36,320 Speaker 1: and that was just too much. And so after everything, 296 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:40,040 Speaker 1: and now with an entire generation of people recapitalizing one 297 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:42,840 Speaker 1: of their mortgages, all these corporations that are banking on 298 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 1: low interest rates, it's over. In this kind of environment. 299 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 1: I don't think interest rates are artificially low. I think 300 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 1: they're artificially fixed. They're fixed to these low rates because 301 00:15:53,280 --> 00:15:56,320 Speaker 1: the world is just based off of it. That's it. 302 00:15:57,040 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 1: UM corporations, individuals, households, pension, the whole thing is built 303 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 1: under this environment. And so the FED is not even 304 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:07,840 Speaker 1: thinking so much about interest rates policies. It's thinking about 305 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 1: yield curve control. It's thinking about other concepts of how 306 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:13,120 Speaker 1: to operate in this world. And now when you and 307 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:15,280 Speaker 1: I operate in that world, we need to think about 308 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 1: that as well. For example, UM companies like Amazon or Apple, 309 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 1: et cetera, they have better debt than the United States government, 310 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:27,440 Speaker 1: and so they're they're almost quasi bonds, quasi companies. They're 311 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 1: growing faster than many other companies. Plus they're safer. That's 312 00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:35,360 Speaker 1: why their p ratios can go to thirty forty fifty 313 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:38,880 Speaker 1: and the traditional investors, those that say, you know, bitcoin 314 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:43,360 Speaker 1: is worthless the value the eighty year old value investor 315 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:46,480 Speaker 1: that likes to look at things like Benjamin Graham looked 316 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 1: at them after the Great Depression, when you stripped something 317 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 1: to the bone, you were like, Okay, what is mark work? 318 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:55,000 Speaker 1: That's the skin, that's the shades, that's his teeth. What 319 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 1: is he worth? I want a liquidation cut. No, you 320 00:16:57,840 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 1: have to pay a premium in today's world because they 321 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,000 Speaker 1: are very a few bankruptcies and companies are growing really fast. 322 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:04,879 Speaker 1: You need to you need to be with the times. 323 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 1: If you try to look for companies at a fifteen 324 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:12,080 Speaker 1: p ratio like the standard, you're not gonna invest any exactly. 325 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 1: So it is dangerous because you're paying higher multiples for companies. 326 00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:20,880 Speaker 1: But in the grand scheme of things, if you look 327 00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:23,960 Speaker 1: at all of the stock market, at real estate, at 328 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 1: other asset classes, it's all expensive. We live in an 329 00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:32,400 Speaker 1: expensive world and we have to invest with this thing 330 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:35,560 Speaker 1: in mind that anything we do is going to be expensive. 331 00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:39,600 Speaker 1: A deal or something that's like cheap is either in 332 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:45,040 Speaker 1: a boom bust uh industry for example mining where you 333 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:51,000 Speaker 1: can go like down and then up. That's fine. So 334 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:52,760 Speaker 1: if you live in that world of the boom and 335 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:56,080 Speaker 1: bus cycles, that's fine, but you can't have the majority 336 00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:58,760 Speaker 1: of your money in that it's it's not sustainable. And 337 00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 1: you can't um operate a full forty years worth of 338 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:07,560 Speaker 1: investing from twenty until sixty five, just you know, of course, 339 00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:10,440 Speaker 1: because then then your retirements based off of luck, where 340 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 1: are you're retiring in that booming bus cycle. You can't 341 00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:16,240 Speaker 1: you can't have that. So I know you, I know 342 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 1: you spent a lot of time looking at gold and 343 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:19,960 Speaker 1: gold miners and that type of an asset. You already 344 00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:22,879 Speaker 1: talked about Warren Buffett missing out on map UM. It 345 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:25,920 Speaker 1: seemed like when the pandemic happened last year and the 346 00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 1: money printer turned on gold shot up, you know, rate 347 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:32,879 Speaker 1: not only did did the interestrates drop, the money printer 348 00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:36,040 Speaker 1: shot up, gold shot up. But then since August of 349 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:37,920 Speaker 1: last year, it's just been kind of in this downtrend. 350 00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 1: Last couple of months has been kind of coming back up, 351 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 1: but back to this environment that we're in. Uh inflation 352 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 1: and inflation is like here in a big way. The 353 00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 1: CPI numbers at the time of this recording just came 354 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:55,400 Speaker 1: out yesterday and they're not good. Now that's a that's 355 00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:58,440 Speaker 1: a manipulated number. But even their manipulated number was not good. 356 00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 1: But we did see gold onto that. What are your 357 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 1: thoughts on the driver of gold and and how gold 358 00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:07,359 Speaker 1: will work through this environment that we have. Okay, I 359 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:10,880 Speaker 1: think gold is very misunderstood for most people when they 360 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:14,800 Speaker 1: start out in their minds, the equation is gold inflation hedge. 361 00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:18,359 Speaker 1: That's the equation, and that's not true. If you look 362 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,760 Speaker 1: at gold and you plot inflation on it, they don't. 363 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:26,359 Speaker 1: They don't correlate at over the long term. So does 364 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:29,160 Speaker 1: the dollar. If you plot the dollar index with gold, 365 00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:34,320 Speaker 1: those don't correlate. Gold correlate with what's called real interest rates, 366 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:38,639 Speaker 1: which is the difference between the bond yields and inflation. 367 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:41,520 Speaker 1: So if you have high bond yields and high inflation 368 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:45,240 Speaker 1: in the in the sum of it, there's no negative 369 00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:47,639 Speaker 1: interest rates. What you're looking for is for the bond 370 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:51,159 Speaker 1: rates to be x, but for UH inflation to be 371 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 1: two x. Then you have a negative interest rate environment, 372 00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:56,720 Speaker 1: which is what you saw between that March and August 373 00:19:56,720 --> 00:20:00,320 Speaker 1: period where it just rally. The market anticipated very negative 374 00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:06,640 Speaker 1: interest rate August six, when gold peaked at two thousand 375 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:12,199 Speaker 1: and sixty nine ounce the same day bondfield's bottom, and 376 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 1: so bond deals bottom at at point five for the 377 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:21,480 Speaker 1: tenure and rally two into February when they reached one. 378 00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:25,240 Speaker 1: And people are like, where there's there's inflation, why is 379 00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:28,240 Speaker 1: gold not at four thousand or five. Well, it's because 380 00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:33,880 Speaker 1: that equation was going more towards bonds then towards inflation. 381 00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:38,040 Speaker 1: And so when you look at this at at UH 382 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,840 Speaker 1: from the bigger picture and where this is going, I 383 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:44,760 Speaker 1: think bond deields have peaked and that's why you're seeing 384 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:49,760 Speaker 1: gold coming back from a double bottom at around six ounce. 385 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:52,919 Speaker 1: That's one thing I think you're seeing. And the second 386 00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:57,479 Speaker 1: thing I think inflation and the whole transitory debate is 387 00:20:57,520 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 1: important to we kind of have a minute on it. 388 00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:06,439 Speaker 1: Transitory is like an abstract term. What is transtor is 389 00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:10,280 Speaker 1: exactly So here's here's how I like to say it. 390 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:14,840 Speaker 1: I invested in a real estate fund which bought three units, 391 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:18,760 Speaker 1: and their business model is to wait until leases expire, 392 00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:23,800 Speaker 1: take the take the tenants out, make the unit better, 393 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:27,720 Speaker 1: bring higher quality tenants or higher paying tenants. Now, the 394 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:30,399 Speaker 1: business models is a three year plan to do this, 395 00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 1: but if you look at the quarterlies or the weeklies 396 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 1: or the monthlies, you're gonna get all these different expenses, spikes, 397 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:40,960 Speaker 1: empty units, amiss. That's this transitory environment that we're going 398 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 1: through right. Used cars are selling for more than new cars, housing, 399 00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:49,240 Speaker 1: lumber up down. It's a big mess because we haven't 400 00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:53,080 Speaker 1: reached the end of shutting down the whole global financial 401 00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 1: system in March, so we're in this messy period and 402 00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:00,560 Speaker 1: when it ends, we're gonna see where the ship's fall. 403 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,679 Speaker 1: In the meantime, we have this transitory environment. So that 404 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,520 Speaker 1: is this transitory environment. At the end of it, we 405 00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:09,760 Speaker 1: want to see two units fixed up with tenants in 406 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:12,200 Speaker 1: them and then we can sell it to a turnkey investor. 407 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:15,640 Speaker 1: In the meantime, there's a jungle. So I think if 408 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:19,320 Speaker 1: you invest in this time, you need to be thinking, 409 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:21,800 Speaker 1: do I want to be just in cash, I want 410 00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:23,119 Speaker 1: to be outside. I don't want to be deal with 411 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,680 Speaker 1: a jungle like one of those investors that wants to 412 00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:28,000 Speaker 1: see a finished unit, or do I want to be 413 00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:31,760 Speaker 1: inside and capitalize on the jungle, because that's where the 414 00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:37,240 Speaker 1: opportunity is. And when you look at opportunities within that jungle, 415 00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:41,280 Speaker 1: inflation definitely is an opportunity because you have the FED 416 00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:44,280 Speaker 1: on one hand thinking it's transitory. You have the CPI 417 00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:47,680 Speaker 1: numbers that obviously are massaged, and then you have surveys 418 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:51,200 Speaker 1: of consumers where they're saying, I think inflation is going up. 419 00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:54,800 Speaker 1: It's going up. So you have acid inflation one thing, 420 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 1: consumer inflation another thing. And I think those uh suits 421 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 1: that are worried about acid inflation and bubbles in the markets, etcetera. 422 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 1: Are not thinking that the average American is seeing right 423 00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:11,040 Speaker 1: through this thing, right through the currency supply and everything else. 424 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 1: And what's amazing is that all of this is happening 425 00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:17,080 Speaker 1: while velocity of money is at the lowest it's been 426 00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:20,480 Speaker 1: since the Great Depression. Imagine if if money starts flowing 427 00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:24,800 Speaker 1: it big time. Hey, sorry to interrupt this video just 428 00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 1: one more time. I'm not running Google ads, so it's 429 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:29,679 Speaker 1: actually way less interruption than I normally would have on 430 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,200 Speaker 1: a video UM and that's because it's sponsored by block 431 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 1: five UM. They are opening up the world of bitcoin 432 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:38,960 Speaker 1: and financial products, offering to pay you interest on your 433 00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:41,679 Speaker 1: bitcoin um better than own in the rental property that 434 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:43,560 Speaker 1: you have to manage and control and have the risks. 435 00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:45,680 Speaker 1: You can just earn interest on it, or you can 436 00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 1: leverage against it. Now, I plan to hold my bitcoin 437 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,800 Speaker 1: forever and literally never sell my bitcoin. So how do 438 00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,000 Speaker 1: you do that? Well, if I need money, I don't 439 00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,200 Speaker 1: want to sell that bitcoin. I'm gonna pay tax on it, 440 00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:58,159 Speaker 1: all right, I'm gonna end up with less and I 441 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:00,560 Speaker 1: don't have the bitcoin anymore. So a better way to 442 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:03,280 Speaker 1: do it is to borrow against the bitcoin. So I've 443 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,359 Speaker 1: put all my money into bitcoin. If I want to 444 00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:07,159 Speaker 1: buy a car, or I want to buy a house, 445 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:10,880 Speaker 1: I can borrow against it at very very low competitive rates. 446 00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:12,920 Speaker 1: Get my house, get my car, whatever that may be, 447 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,720 Speaker 1: and get to keep the bitcoin. I've done a whole 448 00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:18,040 Speaker 1: video on this. You can find it. I'll link it 449 00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,240 Speaker 1: down to the description below. How to retire off a 450 00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:22,679 Speaker 1: bitcoin without paying taxes, and you can do that with 451 00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 1: block fight services. A link to the video down below. 452 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:26,840 Speaker 1: I'm also going to put a link to block Fight 453 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 1: if you choose to click on that link to check 454 00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:31,320 Speaker 1: them out. You can earn up to two in free 455 00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 1: bitcoin just for using that link. And that's it. Let's 456 00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:35,760 Speaker 1: go ahead and get back to the interview. Well, the 457 00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:39,919 Speaker 1: uh so much unpack just there in regards to velocity 458 00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:42,040 Speaker 1: of money. So velocity of money measures how fast the 459 00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:44,439 Speaker 1: money moves the system or how fast people are spending it. 460 00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:46,920 Speaker 1: I give twenty bucks to my to the guy to 461 00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:48,880 Speaker 1: fix my tire. He takes the twenty bucks and goes 462 00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,560 Speaker 1: buys more supplies. They take it and go restock their shells. 463 00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:55,360 Speaker 1: In that same twenty move through the the system three times. Um, 464 00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,400 Speaker 1: it's hard to see. I mean, besides their charts telling 465 00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:02,920 Speaker 1: us that the velocity has dropped. But everybody's spending. So 466 00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,960 Speaker 1: we have asked our consumer good prices going through the 467 00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:09,320 Speaker 1: roof because we have more money chasing the same amount 468 00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:13,080 Speaker 1: or less goods and services available. You can't get a bicycle, 469 00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:16,280 Speaker 1: a kayak, a used car, you can't get anything. Everybody 470 00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:20,600 Speaker 1: is spending. So how is velocity down? Two reasons. One, 471 00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:23,560 Speaker 1: because prices are going up, people are delaying some of 472 00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:27,720 Speaker 1: the spending. That's one thing that's important. Secondly, there's so 473 00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:30,680 Speaker 1: much money in idle cash, either at the sovereign wealth 474 00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:34,159 Speaker 1: level or the pension fund level. And you know, for 475 00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:36,600 Speaker 1: for most Americans, they have cars, they have homes. This 476 00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,800 Speaker 1: is not a developing economy. It's not like China, where 477 00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,080 Speaker 1: I have still not purchased a toaster. I still have 478 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:46,159 Speaker 1: a purchase of a house. You you guys have everything. 479 00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:48,960 Speaker 1: So you want a new iPhone, that's fine, but you 480 00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:51,040 Speaker 1: already have one. You want a new watch that spine, 481 00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:53,919 Speaker 1: you already have one. So the velocity of money is 482 00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:57,159 Speaker 1: moving at a pace of a very developed economy. You 483 00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:00,800 Speaker 1: guys have everything, right, and so it's very different. That's 484 00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:04,879 Speaker 1: my velocity of money is really slow because you've created 485 00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:08,720 Speaker 1: so much money they just cannot move faster. You've created 486 00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:14,000 Speaker 1: of the world's currency ever in one year. And so 487 00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:17,880 Speaker 1: even if I want to, there's four point four trillion 488 00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:21,119 Speaker 1: dollars right now sitting in money market accounts in the 489 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,960 Speaker 1: United States, unheard of, unheard of. Well, and I think 490 00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:27,320 Speaker 1: he brought up a good point, which is uh, inflation 491 00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:29,639 Speaker 1: is a very nuanced argument. So there's lots of different 492 00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,000 Speaker 1: types of inflation. So there's asset inflation, which is the 493 00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:34,320 Speaker 1: price of your stocks, your real estate, your gold. But 494 00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:37,480 Speaker 1: there's consumer price index or consumer price inflation, which is 495 00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:39,840 Speaker 1: the cost of your goods and services. And so with 496 00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:43,640 Speaker 1: all that money in the institutions and the hedge funds, 497 00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:47,280 Speaker 1: which will typically drive asset prices, maybe that's parked probably 498 00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:50,480 Speaker 1: when it comes to velocity measured in consumer goods and services, 499 00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:54,080 Speaker 1: probably moving much faster exactly. It's also nuanced. Yeah, it's 500 00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:57,920 Speaker 1: definitely that way. In fact, I was in Vegas previous 501 00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:02,080 Speaker 1: week and I went into a store, I mean literally 502 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,040 Speaker 1: the dormant. The security guard told me the story is empty. 503 00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 1: Do you have an appointment, like if you want to 504 00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:13,040 Speaker 1: discuss future buyas But our show our showroom is over. 505 00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:17,040 Speaker 1: So there's definitely a lot of and that's has to 506 00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:20,840 Speaker 1: do with stimulus checks. People delayed their purchases for a 507 00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:23,760 Speaker 1: year or so while this all this was happening. This 508 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:28,360 Speaker 1: is all part of this transitory environment. You know. Um, 509 00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:31,240 Speaker 1: I'm a I'm a race car fan. I love to 510 00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:36,080 Speaker 1: watch Formula one two eight. You know it's it's like 511 00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:38,879 Speaker 1: a Formula one where the team tells you you need 512 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,040 Speaker 1: to pitch, you need to pay. There's a mechanical problem. 513 00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:44,000 Speaker 1: You know, you cannot continue driving. Go in and pitch, 514 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,119 Speaker 1: will change your tiles, will feel you up. But we 515 00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:48,720 Speaker 1: have to change some some of the things. That takes time. 516 00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,439 Speaker 1: That's takes thirty seconds. You go in, thirty seconds you 517 00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:53,480 Speaker 1: go out. You have fresh tires. It takes time to 518 00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:57,359 Speaker 1: recover that's a recovery from a problem. That's two eight. 519 00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:02,560 Speaker 1: You have a a scar that's driving fast. The economy 520 00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:06,160 Speaker 1: was booming under it was booming. Everything was going well, 521 00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:09,879 Speaker 1: low unemployment, and then there's just somebody with a sign 522 00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,600 Speaker 1: that says stop for no one, for no reason. The 523 00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:16,359 Speaker 1: car is absolutely fine. You stop, they charge you up 524 00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:19,280 Speaker 1: with turbos, which is these you know, stimulus checks. They 525 00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:22,399 Speaker 1: buy all these junk bonds. The pharas or said they 526 00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:25,040 Speaker 1: would buy junk bonds. They create all this currency and 527 00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:27,879 Speaker 1: then the guy moves, the stop sign moves, and now 528 00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:31,800 Speaker 1: you go back to a full recovery in no time. 529 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:35,000 Speaker 1: That's a boom. So we're in a boom and not 530 00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:38,240 Speaker 1: in a recovery. And that's the big difference. In two 531 00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:40,680 Speaker 1: thousand and eight ago, you have to go through millions 532 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,960 Speaker 1: of these foreclosures and the whole thing starts all over again. 533 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:47,080 Speaker 1: Now you have a car already running in full pace. 534 00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:49,440 Speaker 1: And if you're not ready for that, and you think 535 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 1: you're in a slow recovery, that's different. That's why people 536 00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:54,920 Speaker 1: can't find the jobs they want. Because the economy is change. 537 00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:57,440 Speaker 1: You need new skills, you need to get on because 538 00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:01,000 Speaker 1: it's a boom. That's a big difference because we didn't 539 00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:02,840 Speaker 1: have any problem with the race car. In fact, we 540 00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:05,760 Speaker 1: tour butch starts. We tour bo charged it. Our big 541 00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:12,360 Speaker 1: problem is inflation, where the car overheats, where you burn out. 542 00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,080 Speaker 1: So um Man, there's so much that we can dig 543 00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:18,760 Speaker 1: into on every one of these points. But but we've 544 00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:22,000 Speaker 1: we've we've talked about a lot. So based off of 545 00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:25,160 Speaker 1: kind of what we set the stage for where we're 546 00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:28,520 Speaker 1: at today, how do you look at the rest of 547 00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:32,080 Speaker 1: this year and next year? The raging debate is inflation 548 00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:35,440 Speaker 1: or deflation. Do we have a deflationary bust where asset 549 00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:39,960 Speaker 1: prices crash or does the FED keep pushing asset prices higher? 550 00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,040 Speaker 1: What do you think about the next twelve to eighteen 551 00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:48,600 Speaker 1: months and how should investors be observing it, paying attention 552 00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:52,520 Speaker 1: and thinking about playing that. So what I like is 553 00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:56,360 Speaker 1: that the FED knows how fragile the markets are to 554 00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:59,680 Speaker 1: everything that they say, and so they choose their words 555 00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:05,600 Speaker 1: like Steven Spielberg writes, scripts it's it's measured, Okay, So 556 00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:09,320 Speaker 1: I don't think July. I don't think in the July, 557 00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:12,800 Speaker 1: meaning they're gonna announce anything new in September, they will 558 00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:16,640 Speaker 1: address inflation. They will say either we're tapering, which just 559 00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:20,080 Speaker 1: means they're gonna buy less bonds and less mortgage backed securities. 560 00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:24,160 Speaker 1: But what they like to do is once they announce 561 00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:27,080 Speaker 1: a taper, they say, you have eighteen months until we 562 00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:30,280 Speaker 1: raise rates. So I don't think anyone needs to worry 563 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:35,040 Speaker 1: about raised raising rates right now. It's not happening. I 564 00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:37,680 Speaker 1: don't think it's even even when they talk about potentially 565 00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:40,880 Speaker 1: raising it like they did move the market. The markets absolutely, 566 00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:45,160 Speaker 1: So what are the sectors that that are gonna be 567 00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:49,360 Speaker 1: moved by interest rates et cetera. One thing is high 568 00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:51,680 Speaker 1: flying tech. All of these companies that have a p 569 00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:55,560 Speaker 1: ratios of seventy and higher because they're growing sales at 570 00:30:56,200 --> 00:31:00,000 Speaker 1: and whatnot, they're gonna be very impacted by higher interest rates. 571 00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:04,240 Speaker 1: But what is the threshold? Where is that really matter? 572 00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:07,680 Speaker 1: There's the initial shock they raised rates, things, you know, dump, 573 00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:12,440 Speaker 1: but then they can recover the next few weeks. What 574 00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:16,720 Speaker 1: is the real threshold? And so um David Tepper hatch 575 00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:19,520 Speaker 1: fund manager, owner of the Carolina Panthers, and he's a 576 00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:23,400 Speaker 1: you know, fifteen billion dollar guy. He went out and 577 00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:27,160 Speaker 1: he looked at where the threshold his and to him, 578 00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:31,840 Speaker 1: the threshold is about two point five on the ten 579 00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:34,680 Speaker 1: year bond. And so that to me is like a 580 00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:39,240 Speaker 1: gouge of how big money Wall Street where they believe, okay, 581 00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:42,160 Speaker 1: two and a half percent the dividend of the SMP 582 00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:45,720 Speaker 1: five round of being what one one I'd rather be 583 00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:48,200 Speaker 1: in bonds. That's where you see a real sell off 584 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:52,200 Speaker 1: in stocks, but not before that. So to me, most 585 00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:54,800 Speaker 1: of my focus, I don't care about bonds. I don't 586 00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:57,720 Speaker 1: want to be in bonds. I care careless. I want 587 00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:02,240 Speaker 1: to be in either stocks, gold, or anything that has 588 00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:06,400 Speaker 1: to do more with inflation than deflation. At this point, 589 00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:08,840 Speaker 1: so you think that the FED, well you don't think. 590 00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:12,480 Speaker 1: We know the FED is pumping money, uh, and that's 591 00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:16,160 Speaker 1: pushing inflation. And so you would say that inflation will 592 00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:20,280 Speaker 1: most likely continue unless the bonds get over two and 593 00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:22,320 Speaker 1: a half percent, which at that point they would have 594 00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:25,720 Speaker 1: to do something drastic to pull that inflation back. Yes. 595 00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:29,760 Speaker 1: So um, inflation, like I said, right now, is in 596 00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:33,560 Speaker 1: this chaos mode. And you have to remember we live 597 00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:37,520 Speaker 1: in a super competitive world, very global life. If you 598 00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:41,640 Speaker 1: are able to create huge profits margins in your business, 599 00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:45,080 Speaker 1: somebody else will come in and we'll start lowering those 600 00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:48,320 Speaker 1: prices and will shrink your profit margins. We live in 601 00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:51,600 Speaker 1: a very competitive world. It's very highest to raise prices, 602 00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:55,760 Speaker 1: but consumers have accepted higher prices. You see it everywhere. 603 00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:57,680 Speaker 1: People are willing to pay more for hotel rooms, for 604 00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:00,920 Speaker 1: more for vacation, more for everyday stuff. So I don't 605 00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:03,440 Speaker 1: think we're going back to the tents where you saw 606 00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:07,440 Speaker 1: muted inflate or muted CPI numbers one percent one point 607 00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:09,960 Speaker 1: four percent, where the Fed has to apologize for not 608 00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:12,920 Speaker 1: meaning it's two percent standard. I think we're gonna we're 609 00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:16,120 Speaker 1: gonna live in a world where the average CPI numbers 610 00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:18,360 Speaker 1: will be between two point five and two point eight. 611 00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:24,080 Speaker 1: What does that, uh translate to? That translated into acid inflation. 612 00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:26,560 Speaker 1: But we're going to leave in a dual economy where 613 00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:29,360 Speaker 1: the average guy is going to say CPI numbers. Who 614 00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:31,520 Speaker 1: cares about the two point eight I don't have any 615 00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:34,080 Speaker 1: shares in the SMP five run. I'm a regular worker. 616 00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:38,800 Speaker 1: I care about my food, my yes. So I think 617 00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:42,320 Speaker 1: we'll leave in a dual economy. Asset prices are gonna 618 00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:45,840 Speaker 1: suffer because of higher inflation, because now you have competition, 619 00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:49,440 Speaker 1: you have bonds and whatnot eking out of that, and 620 00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:52,280 Speaker 1: then on the flip side, the consumer is gonna feel 621 00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:55,880 Speaker 1: like there's higher inflation. It's a dual economy that we're 622 00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:59,160 Speaker 1: going into in the next fear. Asset prices will continue 623 00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:01,200 Speaker 1: to inflate because of the competition and the money trying 624 00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:03,640 Speaker 1: to get out of bonds, but also consumer goods and 625 00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:07,600 Speaker 1: services will also inflate. So both of those sectors would inflate. Yes, 626 00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:11,319 Speaker 1: but acid inflation is not going to be as tremendous 627 00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:13,680 Speaker 1: as in the twenty tents. In the twenty tents, huge 628 00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:16,480 Speaker 1: bull market. I think we're getting into a point where 629 00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:21,239 Speaker 1: you're gonna see a sideways market to a market that 630 00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:23,960 Speaker 1: climbs slowly. If you're just putting money in the sp 631 00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:26,600 Speaker 1: if I'm running, for example, don't expect what you signed 632 00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:28,560 Speaker 1: the past ten years. Could that be more of like 633 00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:32,319 Speaker 1: a stagflation like what happened in the seventies, Yes, more 634 00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:34,560 Speaker 1: of a stagflation in terms of like the big in dices, 635 00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:40,320 Speaker 1: et cetera, um, not raging inflation, and not shocks. I 636 00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:43,400 Speaker 1: don't think we're there. What created the nineties seventies was 637 00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:47,280 Speaker 1: the decoupling of the dollar from gold, a knew financial system, 638 00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:51,080 Speaker 1: I knew currency system unless we see one of those 639 00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:56,279 Speaker 1: here's three yes, unless we take three big scenarios. One 640 00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:59,960 Speaker 1: China saying something like we want our currency to be 641 00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:05,080 Speaker 1: modeled like Western countries, big big problem for the dollar, 642 00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:09,720 Speaker 1: y India, Malaysia, Russia, Australia, all of these countries dump 643 00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:14,600 Speaker 1: treasuries bias. If you're if If Chinese are willing to 644 00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:19,480 Speaker 1: stop being currency manipulators and are willing to accept Western standards, 645 00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:23,240 Speaker 1: it's game over them and anything is possible. The Aliens 646 00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:26,319 Speaker 1: can come destroy the earth tomorrow. Anything is possible. The 647 00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:29,759 Speaker 1: probability of that happening to me seems very extremely low 648 00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,520 Speaker 1: because they would have to open up their books and 649 00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:36,040 Speaker 1: provide full transparency, which nobody would ever expect that to happen. 650 00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:40,000 Speaker 1: So exactly what I'm saying is under this financial system 651 00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:43,120 Speaker 1: that we have, I don't expect that. But what I'm 652 00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:46,000 Speaker 1: saying is in the nineteen seventies would cost what caused 653 00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:49,759 Speaker 1: that shot, So a new shock would definitely do that. 654 00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:54,120 Speaker 1: But under this current financial system, I don't see raging 655 00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:59,279 Speaker 1: inflation where the FETE has to uh change everything. I 656 00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:02,960 Speaker 1: think they will just let this chaos end. Let this 657 00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:05,960 Speaker 1: to three year period of higher inflation, where do you 658 00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:08,920 Speaker 1: have these crazy prints of like lumber and then use 659 00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:11,399 Speaker 1: cars and then who knows what's next. But they're gonna 660 00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:14,480 Speaker 1: let it play out and they're not gonna overreact. And 661 00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:16,360 Speaker 1: they already told us this. They said they were gonna 662 00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:19,799 Speaker 1: let it run hot, they were going to average out 663 00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:22,480 Speaker 1: the inflation numbers. They've already They've already told us that. 664 00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:24,600 Speaker 1: And of course they can always change CPI again to 665 00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:27,120 Speaker 1: bring that inflation down, as they will. So then, um, 666 00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:29,239 Speaker 1: if I was summarizing what you're saying, if I have 667 00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:31,440 Speaker 1: this right, you're saying, maybe in the next you know, 668 00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:33,360 Speaker 1: the rest of this year, in the next year, um, 669 00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:37,120 Speaker 1: maybe no big crash. Um, maybe we'll expect acid inflation 670 00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:39,960 Speaker 1: to lower. Consumer good inflation could go up a little bit, 671 00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:42,239 Speaker 1: but they'll try to kind of let that play out. 672 00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:45,080 Speaker 1: Is that I said? So this, Uh, A lot of 673 00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:48,520 Speaker 1: these people are calling for this melt up thesis where 674 00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:51,239 Speaker 1: we had the final stages before the blow off top. 675 00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:53,799 Speaker 1: You don't see that. I think it. We already saw that. 676 00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:55,800 Speaker 1: We already saw it. I think we already saw it. Okay, 677 00:36:55,880 --> 00:37:01,640 Speaker 1: So for me, Mark, you remember April oil prices went 678 00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:05,680 Speaker 1: to negative. I think to me, that was the bottom 679 00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:08,720 Speaker 1: for the commodities bear cycle that started in twenty eleven 680 00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:11,360 Speaker 1: when gold peaked and went all the way down to 681 00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:15,279 Speaker 1: negative oil prices. To me, we're in a commodity supercycle 682 00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:20,000 Speaker 1: that started April. Same with the dollars. What happened that 683 00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:23,720 Speaker 1: was so unique with this crash Compared to two thousand 684 00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:27,800 Speaker 1: and eight, people sold bonds and stocks. In two thousand 685 00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:29,680 Speaker 1: and eight, people sold stocks, went into bonds for a 686 00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:34,680 Speaker 1: safe hav it. In March, people sold thirty two million 687 00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:37,600 Speaker 1: dollars worth of assets, stocks, bonds, I don't care. I 688 00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:42,839 Speaker 1: want cash, liquid, liquidity, and the dollar index exploded. So 689 00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:45,879 Speaker 1: I think the dollar has reached its high in March, 690 00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:49,800 Speaker 1: where it had nine years of of a bull market. 691 00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:52,600 Speaker 1: Since twenty eleven, the dollars in a bull market compared 692 00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:55,160 Speaker 1: to other currencies, and according to the d X Y 693 00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:58,160 Speaker 1: it peaked at thirty. Now it's a ninety already, so 694 00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:01,719 Speaker 1: it already came down a lot, and I think we're 695 00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:04,600 Speaker 1: headed down towards the seventy five range. Okay, so we 696 00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:07,680 Speaker 1: have a commodity supercycle. We have a bear market for 697 00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:10,439 Speaker 1: the dollar which will last six, seven, eight years, that 698 00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:13,320 Speaker 1: that's how long they average out in history. So we 699 00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:17,759 Speaker 1: have those two leg thesis and then the melt up. Okay, 700 00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:22,040 Speaker 1: the melt up to me already happened. Did we already 701 00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:25,879 Speaker 1: saw as from March to now? Absolutely, that was the 702 00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:29,920 Speaker 1: final run of the melt up. What do we have now? Now? 703 00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:33,800 Speaker 1: We have a new generation that's coming into the stock market. 704 00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:36,680 Speaker 1: That's something very different, right, the rise of the Robin 705 00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:43,280 Speaker 1: Hood traders. Absolutely, you have eighty million millennials, eighty million millions. 706 00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:46,520 Speaker 1: They have never invested in stocks before. Never, They swore 707 00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:50,640 Speaker 1: off stocks by my dad. Last they're in And what's 708 00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:54,319 Speaker 1: unique about them is they're not only getting into the 709 00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:57,560 Speaker 1: java's market. Currently, millennials are a third of the job market, 710 00:38:57,760 --> 00:39:03,200 Speaker 1: a third by Millennials are seventy of America's taxpayers. That's 711 00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:05,760 Speaker 1: why you're seeing all these politicians. They're not talking about 712 00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:08,480 Speaker 1: medicare and medicare anymore, they're not talking about socialstic What 713 00:39:08,520 --> 00:39:11,239 Speaker 1: are they talking? They want child tax credits? Who's that 714 00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:16,120 Speaker 1: supposed to please millennials? All the new programs are directed 715 00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:20,799 Speaker 1: toward forty year olds because that's where the taxpayer is, 716 00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:23,600 Speaker 1: that's where the future voter is, that's where America is 717 00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:28,040 Speaker 1: now all of these millennials are now foreigning families, getting married, 718 00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:31,479 Speaker 1: having children. We have a lack of inventory in real estate. 719 00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:37,120 Speaker 1: Two million homes are shortages because homebuilders were afraid and 720 00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:40,440 Speaker 1: the mortgage industry was not exists. Plus wall streets taking 721 00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:43,080 Speaker 1: them off the market. Absolutely, wallst We came into the 722 00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:47,040 Speaker 1: real estate game. Big change. So we have this new 723 00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:52,279 Speaker 1: surge in demand from millennials. And there's a thing called 724 00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:56,400 Speaker 1: the congrat wave and it comes in cycles of about 725 00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:59,840 Speaker 1: seventy five years. The last one we saw after a 726 00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:02,399 Speaker 1: World War Two, where you had this baby boom, right, 727 00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:05,080 Speaker 1: the baby boom in the forties, the biggest companies in 728 00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:10,480 Speaker 1: America gerber right, then fifties McDonald's, Playboy, Coca Cola. They're teenagers. 729 00:40:10,520 --> 00:40:14,280 Speaker 1: They're buying junk food and they're watching what they're watching. 730 00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:18,640 Speaker 1: The sixties, right, they're getting into those higher um uh, 731 00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:22,080 Speaker 1: the their twenties, et cetera. You had to fill uh 732 00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:25,160 Speaker 1: theaters in cinemas with all these students they wanted to 733 00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:28,319 Speaker 1: go through uh the university. The nineteen eighties, they want 734 00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:30,719 Speaker 1: to buy homes. You had the real estate boom, you 735 00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:33,680 Speaker 1: had a tech boom. Because now they they're buying uh 736 00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:36,279 Speaker 1: these uh you know, luxuries, et cetera. And then from 737 00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:39,719 Speaker 1: the two thousand's you have a wellness boom. Right, this 738 00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:43,399 Speaker 1: is the new way. The millennials are gonna dictate what's 739 00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:46,640 Speaker 1: going on social media right now and right now they're 740 00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:49,600 Speaker 1: inheriting these great jobs. They're gonna put the money in 741 00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:52,840 Speaker 1: the markets, and you're gonna see a lot of investment 742 00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:55,399 Speaker 1: in the stock market they're in. They're not scared out 743 00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:59,360 Speaker 1: of it anymore. That it's not um what we saw 744 00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:02,359 Speaker 1: until now. So I think in the next few years 745 00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:04,680 Speaker 1: you're gonna see a lot of demand for real estate. 746 00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:06,560 Speaker 1: Doesn't mean the prices are gonna keep going up because 747 00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:09,960 Speaker 1: affordability is definitely declining, So it's becoming less and less 748 00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:12,240 Speaker 1: affordable to buy a house. So it's a very competitive 749 00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:15,160 Speaker 1: We've gonna see new entrance, new home builders, new et cetera. 750 00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:18,200 Speaker 1: A lot of competition and a lot of competition. What 751 00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:23,160 Speaker 1: it creates in markets are flat markets because now you 752 00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:26,600 Speaker 1: don't have to chase p ratios higher. Now you're not 753 00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:30,640 Speaker 1: looking for the one the Fanks. There's so much out there, 754 00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:35,960 Speaker 1: and prices come down. Real estate prices deflate, asset prices 755 00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:38,600 Speaker 1: flatten out, and I think we're going into this environment 756 00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:42,080 Speaker 1: that's a commodity super psychic because of demand, a bearer 757 00:41:42,080 --> 00:41:46,520 Speaker 1: market for the dollar, which only accentuates the commodity supercycle, 758 00:41:46,680 --> 00:41:50,160 Speaker 1: and for general equities and general real estate. I think 759 00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:55,120 Speaker 1: more of a moderate increase and not a boom. That's 760 00:41:55,120 --> 00:41:58,279 Speaker 1: an interesting take they are. Um, We've talked to lots 761 00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:01,319 Speaker 1: of people on this channel, Uh, many of whom are 762 00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:04,799 Speaker 1: expecting this big deflationary crash. So it's definitely a different cake. 763 00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:06,359 Speaker 1: And I love the way they've been able to back 764 00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:08,640 Speaker 1: that up with information. Uh So that was that was 765 00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:11,680 Speaker 1: super insightful. Hopefully you guys enjoyed that. UM. I could 766 00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:13,520 Speaker 1: dig into that. There's so much I'd like to ask, 767 00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:15,680 Speaker 1: but to be honest, the sun is starting to cook 768 00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:17,640 Speaker 1: me and I'm gonna turn into a lobster if i 769 00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:19,479 Speaker 1: stay hear too much. So I think we're gonna probably 770 00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:21,600 Speaker 1: wrap it up with that. But I appreciate you coming 771 00:42:21,600 --> 00:42:23,360 Speaker 1: all the way from Israel to have this conversation with 772 00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:25,120 Speaker 1: us today. There anything else that you want to say 773 00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:27,000 Speaker 1: to wrap it up or direct people where they should 774 00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:29,440 Speaker 1: go to watch you more. I think if you go 775 00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:32,680 Speaker 1: to Wealth research dot Com there's a top menu tab 776 00:42:32,920 --> 00:42:36,120 Speaker 1: that's called watch lists, and it's actually filled with PDF 777 00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:39,040 Speaker 1: downloads of my personal portfolio. So if you want to 778 00:42:39,040 --> 00:42:42,400 Speaker 1: see exactly what I'm invested in right now, including the 779 00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:45,640 Speaker 1: limit price orders, the prices that I like to buy into, 780 00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:48,920 Speaker 1: there's about seventy equities in there. Um, then you can 781 00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:52,239 Speaker 1: go in freely download that. And obviously the newsletter you 782 00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:55,120 Speaker 1: can sign up for that, and that's for free, and uh, 783 00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:57,759 Speaker 1: that is the most updated way to stay engaged with 784 00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:00,960 Speaker 1: what I'm doing. Awesome, thank you some Actually we'll appreciate it. 785 00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:03,480 Speaker 1: And uh, with that we're gonna sign off. Thank you 786 00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:05,200 Speaker 1: sir for the opportunity, all right,