1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:02,560 Speaker 1: This is Tom Rowlands Reis and you're listening to Switched 2 00:00:02,600 --> 00:00:05,520 Speaker 1: on the BNF podcast. At the beginning of every year, 3 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:08,400 Speaker 1: BNF analysts release their series of Things to Watch notes, 4 00:00:08,720 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: laying out their predictions and insights for the year ahead. 5 00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:13,399 Speaker 1: Today we turn to our gas team and take a 6 00:00:13,440 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: look at the predictions of what is one of our 7 00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: most in demand commodities. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine 8 00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:21,480 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, the gas sector has experienced extreme 9 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:24,040 Speaker 1: swings in pricing and the complete re routing of some 10 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:27,720 Speaker 1: trade flows. The drama isn't over yet. Our analysts foresee 11 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 1: further turbulence ahead and have DUG twenty twenty five a 12 00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 1: stress test for gas in terms of supply. The world's 13 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 1: largest exporter of energy, the US, may look to explore 14 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:40,320 Speaker 1: even more under the incoming Trump administration. While the final 15 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:42,919 Speaker 1: gas pipeline from Russian to the EU has now been 16 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:45,840 Speaker 1: turned off for demand, what was traditionally a winter fuel 17 00:00:45,880 --> 00:00:48,320 Speaker 1: is now being burned through summer months as countries seek 18 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 1: additional power generation to cope with rising temperatures and away 19 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 1: from the buying and selling of the commodity itself. Services 20 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 1: sectors are also feeding the pressure with an over supply 21 00:00:57,160 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 1: of ships hitting the seas to guide us through some 22 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 1: of the things on the horizon for the global gas market. Today, 23 00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 1: I'm joined by Fausia Marzuki, Bloomberg and yf's global head 24 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:08,039 Speaker 1: of Gas Markets. Together we discuss findings from her team's 25 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:10,959 Speaker 1: report Gas Things to Watch in twenty twenty five crunch 26 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:14,400 Speaker 1: time before comeback, which BNF clients can find a BNF 27 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:17,679 Speaker 1: go on the Bloomberg Terminal or BNIF dot com. Now 28 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 1: to the show and what to expect from gas during 29 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 1: the year ahead. Thank you for joining us today, faus 30 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:34,760 Speaker 1: on the podcast, Let's talk about gas. 31 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:36,600 Speaker 2: Who thanks for having me. 32 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 3: Tom. 33 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 1: Last time you're on the show, one of the things 34 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 1: you talked about was how weather cycles are and extreme 35 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 1: weather events and on top of that are impacting the 36 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:47,119 Speaker 1: price dynamics of coal. 37 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 4: We're talking about a report that you published with our 38 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 4: colleague you me Kim. 39 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:53,280 Speaker 1: But now we're talking about gas, which is your your 40 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:57,280 Speaker 1: your day job now leading our analysis globally on gas. 41 00:01:57,400 --> 00:02:00,560 Speaker 1: So how is weather impacting gas demand in twenty twenty 42 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 1: five and are changing climate patterns likely to have an impact? 43 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 2: So it's really interesting the fundamentals of the gas market 44 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 2: were very much built around is going to be a 45 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:12,640 Speaker 2: cold winter and we're storing gas to meet the winter. 46 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:15,560 Speaker 2: So gas traders and the gas market would really only 47 00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 2: just look at the Northern Hemisphere winter season. But now 48 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:22,920 Speaker 2: with changing climate patterns, increasingly gas traders need to be 49 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 2: worried about heat waves, they need to be worried about 50 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 2: rainfall and drought. So it's coming to a point where 51 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 2: actually the summers are becoming more interesting or actually perhaps 52 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:36,959 Speaker 2: even a lot more difficult to predict with regards to 53 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 2: how that's actually going to be influencing the gas market. Now. 54 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 2: Summer is in particular because that's when you're supposed to 55 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:45,240 Speaker 2: be injecting gas into storage to save it for the winter. 56 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 2: But what we've seen some really interesting flips in the 57 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 2: market that in Europe the benchmark price there, the summer 58 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 2: prices are actually more expensive than winter. Now, it's just 59 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:59,799 Speaker 2: markets have gone completely convoluted. To us at the next step, 60 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 2: and it is because of changing weather patterns. 61 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 1: I'm going to speak on behalf of maybe some of 62 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 1: our listeners who are less familiar with gas but are 63 00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:10,799 Speaker 1: interested in getting interested in it. So you mentioned a 64 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:13,519 Speaker 1: few things. I mean, one is, you know, gas injections. 65 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:16,080 Speaker 1: I'm just going to tell everyone now, having kind of 66 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 1: been adjacent to gas for arth, that's gas industry speak 67 00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 1: for putting gas into storage for later. And then they's 68 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 1: the what's the word when you take it out? What's 69 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:25,320 Speaker 1: the opposite of an injection withdrawal? 70 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:26,960 Speaker 4: An injection and a withdrawal. 71 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 1: It sounds like something much worse because they have an 72 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:32,800 Speaker 1: injection and withdrawal cycle, but that is what the gas 73 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 1: market works on. So putting into storage for taking out later. 74 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 1: And you mentioned cold winters, they watch that and it's 75 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 1: I think that's fairly intuitive why that matters because people 76 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 1: burn gas to keep warm. But why do the hot 77 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:47,120 Speaker 1: summers have an impact and why does drought have an 78 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 1: impact on the gas market? 79 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 2: Excellent question. So when it's hot, you need a lot 80 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 2: of air conditioning, and that air conditioning is very much 81 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 2: powered by gas power generation, especially in a lot of 82 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 2: the big gas economies like the US, places in Southeast 83 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 2: Asia and parts of China and India, these large gas 84 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 2: consuming markets. With regards to the droughts, Now that one's 85 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 2: actually been interesting, and quite frankly, it's caught the gas 86 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:16,360 Speaker 2: market and the LERG market off guard a couple times. 87 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:19,680 Speaker 2: So when you have droughts in regions or in countries 88 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 2: and markets that are actually particularly hydro power dependent, i e. 89 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:30,160 Speaker 2: Power being generated from rain precipitation hydro reservoirs. When you've 90 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:33,239 Speaker 2: got less hydro in those reserves, you've got less power 91 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:36,159 Speaker 2: generation from that source. The quickest thing for you to 92 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 2: be able to supplement that is actually gas generation. So 93 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 2: we found that drought in Columbia and Brazil have actually 94 00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 2: led to really huge increases in LNG imports, and that 95 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:50,800 Speaker 2: LNG is actually you know, that energy would have actually 96 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 2: gone to Europe instead for storage during the summer, but 97 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 2: that coincides with the Southern Hemisphere's winter season and that's 98 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 2: actually their peak demand season and for power. So yeah, droughts, 99 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:04,560 Speaker 2: heat waves, in all of these other things. We're even 100 00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:09,600 Speaker 2: actually increasingly caring about wind speeds as well. In periods 101 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:12,839 Speaker 2: of low wind speeds, particularly in the third quarter in 102 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:15,120 Speaker 2: the run up to winter. We've actually seen it have 103 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 2: an impact in Europe where economies that have high shares 104 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 2: of wind generation when there's no wind, gas or coal 105 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 2: depending on the market, does come in to fill the gap. 106 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 4: That's so interesting. 107 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 1: It's a little bit like the butterfly flapping its wings 108 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:32,279 Speaker 1: in the Amazon and there being a hurricane in the 109 00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:35,359 Speaker 1: Pacific if it's not too rainy in Brazil and Columbia. Certainly, 110 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:38,159 Speaker 1: natural gas prices are more expensive in Europe as a result, 111 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:43,360 Speaker 1: we're living in an increasingly interconnected world when it comes 112 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:46,240 Speaker 1: to energy, even more so than in the past, and 113 00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:49,120 Speaker 1: it's because of natural gas in these changing weather dynamics. 114 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:52,279 Speaker 1: So what are the some of the opportunities that arise 115 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:55,000 Speaker 1: from this for the people in the gas market who 116 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 1: are a trading. 117 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:59,880 Speaker 2: Gas Oh gosh, yeah, you'll always find opportunities to make 118 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:03,799 Speaker 2: money's on in this market. But some of the things 119 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 2: that at least I'm looking out for in the gas 120 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:09,479 Speaker 2: markets this year in particular, We're going to go into 121 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:13,120 Speaker 2: a little bit of gas speak here, but the spreads 122 00:06:13,560 --> 00:06:17,839 Speaker 2: between the Asian gas price and the European gas price. 123 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 2: Those are razor thin right now. They're less than a 124 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:22,760 Speaker 2: dollar put MMB to you. 125 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:26,040 Speaker 1: For people who aren't familiar, this spread is a fancy 126 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:28,159 Speaker 1: word for the difference in price. 127 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:29,440 Speaker 2: That spread sounds cool. 128 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:33,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, spread sounds cool. It's true. So the spread is 129 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 4: raisor thin. Am I doing it right? Yes? 130 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 2: You are well done. Trader, so those spreads are thin, 131 00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 2: so there's not much room to actually maneuver and play 132 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:46,800 Speaker 2: a game of arbitrage between the two different regions. Another 133 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:51,240 Speaker 2: thing that's really interesting now, the average price or the 134 00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 2: prices of long term contracted liquified natural gas, which are 135 00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 2: actually most predominantly linked to oil. At current prices, they 136 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:04,200 Speaker 2: are actually cheaper than an LNGY cargo on the spot market. 137 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 2: So i'll say that again. So contract energy prices today 138 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:10,720 Speaker 2: are at about ten dollars per mmbtu, at about over 139 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 2: seventy five dollars per barrel if you're looking at Brent. Now, 140 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 2: when that happens, when your contracted long term deliveries of 141 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 2: LERG end up being cheaper than the spot market, they're 142 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 2: going to have a couple of things happen. You're going 143 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 2: to have buyers who are going to want to negotiate 144 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:26,640 Speaker 2: with their suppliers to say, please, please, please give me 145 00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:30,000 Speaker 2: more of my contract energy because it's cheaper. And you're 146 00:07:30,000 --> 00:07:33,200 Speaker 2: also going to have situations where these buyers who are 147 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:37,200 Speaker 2: sevy portfolio managers and players, they're going to want to 148 00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 2: try to sell any excess energy they're not going to 149 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 2: use onto the spot market. Because they're going to make 150 00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 2: a huge profit on that. They're going to make a 151 00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 2: real margin on that. So we're going to see a 152 00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 2: lot of what we call cargo resales potentially, especially for 153 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 2: markets that are really going to need it for storage 154 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 2: injections during the summer or for the heat waves that come. 155 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 4: Got it. 156 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 1: I should also mention you talked about Brent. For those 157 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 1: who are not familiar, Brent is an oil price. It's 158 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:03,200 Speaker 1: an oil price index. It's just sort of something that 159 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 1: I've always wandered about, and now I have the opportunity 160 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 1: to ask you this question in front of an audience 161 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:12,520 Speaker 1: of thousands, So no pressure. I've never fully understood why 162 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:17,200 Speaker 1: there are LNG contracts indexed against oil prices. They're two 163 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:20,600 Speaker 1: completely different things, right, Why is that just out of interest? 164 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 2: Really really good question. It goes back to history. There 165 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:29,280 Speaker 2: are a couple things. It used to be that the 166 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:32,560 Speaker 2: alternative fuel to burning gas was usually some kind of 167 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:35,520 Speaker 2: crude oil derivative, I use some kind of oil product, 168 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:39,120 Speaker 2: So gas used to always be priced of the alternative fuel, 169 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:41,880 Speaker 2: and in this case, it was actually oil products. Now, 170 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:45,679 Speaker 2: in places where it's been gas to gas competition, pricing 171 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:50,880 Speaker 2: that's evolved in the US, in Europe, Asia still the last, 172 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 2: let's say, stronghold of oil gas pricing, but that is 173 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 2: very much for legacy reasons that a lot of these 174 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:01,480 Speaker 2: long term contracts as I was talking about, for legacy reasons, 175 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:05,880 Speaker 2: have still been using oil price linkages. But that does 176 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:10,520 Speaker 2: not actually mean that the two commodities are actually related 177 00:09:10,520 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 2: to each other. They used to be years ago. Spot 178 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:17,240 Speaker 2: liquefied natural gas prices used to be highly influenced by 179 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:21,199 Speaker 2: oil prices, but now that's very much decoupled. There's very 180 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 2: much gas to gas competition, and because of this global 181 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 2: gas market that we're now in, that link is not 182 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:30,960 Speaker 2: really there anymore. But again for legacy reasons, that oil 183 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:34,320 Speaker 2: link is in the contracts. It's also something that is 184 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:39,280 Speaker 2: easily hedged from a risk management perspective because the financial 185 00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:43,599 Speaker 2: derivatives market for rent futures, for these hedging instruments that 186 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:46,720 Speaker 2: can help protect you against the volatility of oil prices 187 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:49,360 Speaker 2: are a lot more established. Banks are a lot more 188 00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:52,720 Speaker 2: comfortable with it. The border directors signing off on these 189 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:55,560 Speaker 2: long term energy purchase agreements are a lot more comfortable 190 00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 2: with it. So for legacy reason, it still stays in 191 00:09:58,280 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 2: the gas market, but it is changing. 192 00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, I was just going to ask, So these arbitrage 193 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:06,079 Speaker 1: opportunities you mentioned that exist in twenty twenty five because 194 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 1: of this legacy of indexing against oil. I suppose every 195 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:13,600 Speaker 1: time someone is just making a bunch of money through arbitrage, 196 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:17,559 Speaker 1: there's someone else who's thinking, shucks, I made a bad deal. 197 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 1: You know, I could have signed a better contract. And 198 00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:24,680 Speaker 1: so each of these arbitrage opportunities ultimately are what is 199 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 1: going to close the door on this because there's going 200 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:29,199 Speaker 1: to be less and less people willing to sign those 201 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:31,360 Speaker 1: kinds of contracts. So is this something that is not 202 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:34,319 Speaker 1: going to exist for that much longer this type of opportunity, 203 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 1: I think it. 204 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 2: Really depends Tom and I think, you know, depending on 205 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 2: the supplier of LNG. So there have been some suppliers 206 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:44,839 Speaker 2: in the market who have been steadfast against keeping that 207 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:48,800 Speaker 2: oil indexation in their contracts, and there's some such as 208 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:53,240 Speaker 2: US LNG producers, they are adamant on US gas pricing 209 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:56,160 Speaker 2: in the LNG contracts. Now, it's always good to have 210 00:10:56,200 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 2: a portfolio of your price exposure, so most by will 211 00:11:00,640 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 2: have a mixed exposure to different price benchmarks. So whether 212 00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 2: we'll see that oil indexation go away really comes down 213 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 2: to whether the suppliers will stop using it, whether the 214 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:15,080 Speaker 2: buyers will stop asking. 215 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:16,360 Speaker 4: For prices to be on that. 216 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 2: But in terms of the link it isn't there anymore. 217 00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:24,600 Speaker 2: It still fundamentally comes down to in the contracts. This 218 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,800 Speaker 2: was just more the common practice now, whether they're willing 219 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 2: to try something new and different, or whether there's going 220 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:34,200 Speaker 2: to be some kind of Asian gas price benchmark that 221 00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 2: everybody can rally behind, still really yet be seen. 222 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:39,880 Speaker 1: Another feature of this sort of evolving market that is 223 00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:42,959 Speaker 1: increasingly global. I mean for it to even work, there 224 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:45,880 Speaker 1: needs to be ships. And in your reports you're forecasting 225 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:49,440 Speaker 1: an oversupply around twenty thirty of LNG because there's all 226 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:51,480 Speaker 1: sorts of projects coming online. Is there going to be 227 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:54,120 Speaker 1: an oversupply of ships as well? I mean, is you 228 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 1: know the whole picture, is it coming together? Is there 229 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:58,400 Speaker 1: anything that there's going to be not enough of or 230 00:11:58,440 --> 00:11:59,120 Speaker 1: too much of? 231 00:11:59,559 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 4: Yeah? 232 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:02,440 Speaker 2: That is a really fantastic question, because this is something 233 00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:06,439 Speaker 2: I particularly find really interesting about this year, the dynamics 234 00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:08,720 Speaker 2: in the market, and we started to already see it 235 00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 2: creeping in towards the tail end of last year. So 236 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 2: let's put it this way, you can always you can 237 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 2: you can expect the shipping industry to run a tight ship. 238 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:24,160 Speaker 2: So what's happened here is that the big LENG supply projects, 239 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:27,240 Speaker 2: you know, these these are huge billion dollar projects. They 240 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 2: take a while to construct, and they're pretty notorious for 241 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:34,040 Speaker 2: actually having delays. So what's happened now is that a 242 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:38,719 Speaker 2: number of these LNG supply export projects have been delayed, 243 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:42,400 Speaker 2: but the ships that were commissioned and built to carry 244 00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:45,600 Speaker 2: that supply have come on time, right. So, and now 245 00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:48,040 Speaker 2: the reason the ship the shipping industry really has got 246 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 2: to run a tight book like that is because these 247 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 2: fabrication yards they're booked top. They have slots of people, 248 00:12:55,000 --> 00:12:57,720 Speaker 2: you know, who want new LNG tankers, and there are 249 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:00,679 Speaker 2: very few shipyards around the world now who can actually 250 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:04,840 Speaker 2: build LNG tankers. They're really only in Korea and China now, 251 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:08,439 Speaker 2: so limited slots. So they work like clockwork and they 252 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 2: churn out those ships on time. But the projects that 253 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:14,400 Speaker 2: they were built for have been delayed. So we're in 254 00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:18,040 Speaker 2: a situation now where there are a lot of LNG 255 00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:22,240 Speaker 2: ships on water with less supply to actually carry. So 256 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 2: what happens there is that the shipping rates. The freight 257 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:28,800 Speaker 2: rates for these LNG ships have gone down, they've tanked, 258 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:31,640 Speaker 2: so it's super cheap now to rent an lerngy tanker. 259 00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 2: So the thing to watch this year is going to be, actually, 260 00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:38,240 Speaker 2: how is the market going to respond to that? Are 261 00:13:38,280 --> 00:13:41,720 Speaker 2: they going to do something what the industry calls slow steaming, 262 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 2: which is basically the ships are just going to move 263 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:47,080 Speaker 2: really really really slowly and they're not going to be 264 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:50,080 Speaker 2: in a hurry to get anywhere. Are they actually going 265 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:53,439 Speaker 2: to lay them up, which in the industry means you're 266 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:55,440 Speaker 2: basically just going to a pocket an important turn off 267 00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:57,600 Speaker 2: the engine and keep it idle for a bit. Or 268 00:13:57,760 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 2: what they might even do is they might actually scrap 269 00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 2: it them to the graveyard for ships and basically decommission 270 00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 2: them and scrap them. It's going to be interesting to 271 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:09,000 Speaker 2: see how the market responds to it, whether they're going 272 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 2: to hold these ships. We're is costing them every day. 273 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:13,800 Speaker 2: You got a crew, you got to pay for fuel, 274 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:16,480 Speaker 2: you got manning, you got all these operating costs of 275 00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:18,960 Speaker 2: operating these ships, and you got nothing to ship. So 276 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:21,400 Speaker 2: how are the market, how are the supply is how 277 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:23,680 Speaker 2: are the charterers of these ships going to manage that 278 00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:26,440 Speaker 2: fleet is going to be quite in the strength. I 279 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 2: will say, though, as much as some of the industry 280 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:33,120 Speaker 2: is thinking that people might start to scrap the really, 281 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 2: really old lergy ships because they're super inefficient, high emissions 282 00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:39,680 Speaker 2: and we care a little less for them, I'd caution 283 00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:44,840 Speaker 2: over laying up too many ships because when those projects 284 00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:47,720 Speaker 2: actually do come online, those ships need to come in 285 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 2: pretty quickly in order to not have an impact on 286 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:54,560 Speaker 2: prices to have a tight shipping market. Because enough ships 287 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:57,560 Speaker 2: were ordered for the amount of supply that the lergy 288 00:14:57,640 --> 00:15:00,800 Speaker 2: market anticipated. It's just a mismatch timing. 289 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 1: Right now, right, So don't go sending your ship off 290 00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:03,280 Speaker 1: to ship heaven. 291 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 4: Quite yet, No, not quite yet. 292 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:05,120 Speaker 3: No. 293 00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:09,360 Speaker 1: Speaking of the global picture, I want about the geopolitical landscape, 294 00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:14,600 Speaker 1: the potential impact of the Trump presidency Europe, Russia. I mean, 295 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:17,520 Speaker 1: for me being based here in the US. I've often 296 00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:22,680 Speaker 1: said that for the incoming administration, LNG is their trump 297 00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 1: card globally but boom, But I mean. 298 00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:27,840 Speaker 4: In particular, I think the US. 299 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 1: This is a central question for the US because there's 300 00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:32,960 Speaker 1: so much potential influence that can be wielded. Because it 301 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:35,560 Speaker 1: is the world's largest exporter of LERG now, but just 302 00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:39,600 Speaker 1: more broadly, like what machinations do you see happening over 303 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 1: twenty twenty five in relation to LERG, particularly with a 304 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 1: president in the US that is more favorable towards it 305 00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:47,359 Speaker 1: than his predecessor. 306 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 2: I'll say a few thoughts or more. I'll ramble for 307 00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:54,120 Speaker 2: a little bit, my thoughts on the topic. 308 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:56,960 Speaker 1: That is how you do talk about geopolitics. That's not 309 00:15:57,040 --> 00:16:01,120 Speaker 1: used as how anyway. That is conversation about geopolitics. Rambling thoughts, 310 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:03,440 Speaker 1: rambling thoughts. Let's get your rambling thoughts all right. 311 00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:07,800 Speaker 2: First ramble is, let's talk about Europe. What's happened since 312 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 2: the first of January. For those who watch the natural 313 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 2: gas markets, Russian gas has now officially stopped flowing through Ukraine. Now, 314 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:19,960 Speaker 2: that's the end of five decades of transit through that 315 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 2: way to get Russian gas to Europe. Next year, we're 316 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 2: anticipating that there's going to actually be a lot more 317 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:31,400 Speaker 2: Russian LNG flowing into Europe. That's for various reasons. There's 318 00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 2: already a fear about to Russian LNG flowing into Europe. 319 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:37,480 Speaker 2: There's going to be more with an upcoming transhipment ban 320 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 2: that's going to be happening. But what we've been hearing 321 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 2: from the upcoming Trump presidency is that he wants to 322 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 2: send more USLNG to Europe. Now, the US is already 323 00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 2: the largest supplier of ln G to Europe. That is 324 00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 2: always going to make the most economical sense, and also 325 00:16:55,960 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 2: from an operational perspective, it is the nearest major market 326 00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 2: that the US can send its LNG. Two, there are 327 00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:07,399 Speaker 2: other markets that are closer that could service the Asian market. 328 00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:10,480 Speaker 2: It takes a long time to send US LNG over 329 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:14,200 Speaker 2: to Asia, so the most natural destination for US LNG 330 00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:18,200 Speaker 2: is in fact Europe. So there's only so much more 331 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:24,640 Speaker 2: US LNG can go to Europe without Europe explicitly saying 332 00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:28,879 Speaker 2: that they actually want more gas. Right now, LNG is 333 00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 2: just meeting the existing gas demand. You can't send any 334 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 2: more LNG to Europe that it doesn't necessarily need. So 335 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:40,000 Speaker 2: from the US is positioning point of view, if the 336 00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 2: US wants to have more LNG export projects, they'll need 337 00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:48,000 Speaker 2: to be able to firm up that demand. So I 338 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:49,680 Speaker 2: guess the point that I'm trying to make it is 339 00:17:49,720 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 2: just that's you know, yes, LNG has come in to 340 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:57,680 Speaker 2: fill a gap that Russian pipeline gas is not filling anymore. 341 00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 2: But if you're looking at substantially increasing the amount of 342 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:07,199 Speaker 2: LGY imports that go into Europe, there's got to be 343 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:12,200 Speaker 2: actual fundamental increases in gas demand. I think the biggest 344 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:14,880 Speaker 2: question mark in the gas industry right now, and I've 345 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:17,320 Speaker 2: been saying it for some time now, it's when you 346 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 2: get to an oversupply situation, which everybody's anticipating. Depending on 347 00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 2: research house in which podcast you listen to, they're projected 348 00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:28,800 Speaker 2: anywhere between twenty twenty seven to twenty thirty where a 349 00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:31,040 Speaker 2: new flood of LNG is going to come and that's 350 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 2: going to bring down the price of LERG. And when 351 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:38,200 Speaker 2: things and when gas becomes cheaper again, does it actually 352 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:43,200 Speaker 2: unlock further demand? So if gas is really cheap again, 353 00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:46,400 Speaker 2: will you burn more of it? Will you actually stop 354 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:49,080 Speaker 2: burning more of it? And that is actually the demand 355 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:52,679 Speaker 2: that if the US wants to have more LERGY projects, 356 00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 2: they need to firm that demand if Europe is their market. 357 00:18:56,760 --> 00:18:58,440 Speaker 1: I mean, maybe this is a different way of saying 358 00:18:58,440 --> 00:19:00,439 Speaker 1: what you're saying in terms of firming demand, but you 359 00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:03,840 Speaker 1: could say that when the market is oversupplied, buyers start 360 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 1: to ask for what they want, and it's not just 361 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:09,360 Speaker 1: the cheapest boatload of energy. And one of the things 362 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:13,720 Speaker 1: that gets talked about is the kind of embedded methane 363 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:18,119 Speaker 1: emissions in energy of different forms, is rather than firming 364 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:21,919 Speaker 1: up demand to become the preferred supplier in a market, 365 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:23,920 Speaker 1: and is the way to become the preferred supplier to 366 00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:26,800 Speaker 1: be able to certify and demonstrate. 367 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:29,200 Speaker 4: That your leg is greener than everyone else's. 368 00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:31,600 Speaker 2: I think, I mean that is going to depend on 369 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:32,640 Speaker 2: your buyer profile. 370 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:33,080 Speaker 5: Right. 371 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:37,400 Speaker 2: If they want that kind of energy, then they'll sign 372 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:39,119 Speaker 2: up for it. Now, whether they're willing to pay a 373 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 2: premium for it still very much comes to a buyer 374 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:45,119 Speaker 2: appetite of that. I think it's something that the US 375 00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:49,840 Speaker 2: can absolutely position itself from a methane intensity perspective. I 376 00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:53,440 Speaker 2: think the US has come out as a strong contender 377 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 2: in that sense. It can be lower, So it could 378 00:19:56,280 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 2: be leverage that the US has all different energies. Suppliers 379 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:05,680 Speaker 2: are touting their own quote green credentials. You've got LNG 380 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:08,600 Speaker 2: plants that are saying, oh, I'm you know, I'm using 381 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:12,560 Speaker 2: completely zero emissions power to produce all of my leg, 382 00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:15,080 Speaker 2: so I've got the best lerg or I've used carbon 383 00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:19,040 Speaker 2: offsets to offset the entire emissions life cycle of my leg, 384 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:23,120 Speaker 2: so my lergy is better. Or as a supplier of LERG, 385 00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:26,600 Speaker 2: you should pay that premium to me for my green 386 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:30,200 Speaker 2: llerngy cargo. So I think there are ways to position 387 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:33,960 Speaker 2: different LERG sources. I think for the US, I do 388 00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 2: really wonder more about the implications of expanding the LNG 389 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:46,200 Speaker 2: export industry to a level that's perhaps unsustainable for the 390 00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:50,000 Speaker 2: US domestic market. The US gas market is the largest 391 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:53,199 Speaker 2: in the world, but the lergy export gas that is 392 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 2: required is just a. 393 00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 4: Fraction of it. 394 00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,640 Speaker 2: So when you start piling more of that stuff, you're 395 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,080 Speaker 2: going to need to get more shale gas out of 396 00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:03,200 Speaker 2: the ground. You get more shale gas out of the 397 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:06,000 Speaker 2: ground word to incentivize drillersts to do so, you are 398 00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:08,679 Speaker 2: going to need to have some higher prices. There's a 399 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,840 Speaker 2: lot of resource in the US, but it's still constraint 400 00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:14,919 Speaker 2: because prices are not high enough to merit drilling for 401 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,920 Speaker 2: that yet. So with higher prices does actually mean you're 402 00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,679 Speaker 2: going to get higher domestic prices to a certain extent, 403 00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 2: And I guess I do wonder how much the US 404 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 2: is willing to sustain those dynamics, because let's also remember 405 00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:32,399 Speaker 2: that there was a time when the US was importing 406 00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:35,800 Speaker 2: LNG it was short of gas, and then they very 407 00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:39,720 Speaker 2: quickly turn that around. The premise of the US LNG 408 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:42,640 Speaker 2: expot market is also very different when you look at 409 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:45,920 Speaker 2: it from a geopolitical standpoint, if you're thinking about leg 410 00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:50,840 Speaker 2: as a trump card for sort of positioning politically in 411 00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:53,919 Speaker 2: terms of supplying this critical energy source. 412 00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:56,480 Speaker 4: Historically, the way those. 413 00:21:56,280 --> 00:22:00,720 Speaker 2: Hydrocarbon relationships used to work with nations and governments was 414 00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:03,560 Speaker 2: that it was a point A to B sale and 415 00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:08,080 Speaker 2: there was that direct link between important and exporter country 416 00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,440 Speaker 2: or market. But the way the US LNG export industry 417 00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,959 Speaker 2: is designed is that most of it is actually sold 418 00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:17,919 Speaker 2: at US shores and then the buyer actually takes it 419 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:20,439 Speaker 2: to whatever location they want to do. It's been the 420 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:22,919 Speaker 2: attraction of US LNG is what we call free on 421 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:26,040 Speaker 2: board delivery, which is basically they won't send it to 422 00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,600 Speaker 2: your home, pick it up from the Gulf Mexico and 423 00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:32,000 Speaker 2: have ad it send it wherever you like with permits 424 00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:32,640 Speaker 2: from the DOE. 425 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,919 Speaker 1: That is so at the moment, if the US doesn't 426 00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 1: have the tools to use LNG as a political lever 427 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:41,360 Speaker 1: because the. 428 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:43,600 Speaker 2: LERG will go to whoever is going to pay the 429 00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:46,959 Speaker 2: highest for it. So, you know, the LNG is a 430 00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 2: very free flowing market where the supply will go to 431 00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:55,200 Speaker 2: wherever the demand is and things will get swapped and 432 00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:58,639 Speaker 2: traded and moved around. That it's going to be quite 433 00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,760 Speaker 2: difficult to say, Okay, well I'm going to use LNG 434 00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:03,520 Speaker 2: to particularly. 435 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:05,680 Speaker 4: You know, exert this kind of influence. 436 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:08,240 Speaker 2: Exert this kind of influence because those market dynamics are 437 00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:10,600 Speaker 2: just going to work themselves out. 438 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:12,960 Speaker 1: Files we're out of time. But this has been a 439 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:18,200 Speaker 1: fascinating conversation. I really think that gas and its importance 440 00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:20,920 Speaker 1: is under discussed, and particularly LNG. 441 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:23,200 Speaker 4: It's that a fascinating place. 442 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:25,400 Speaker 1: Even if it's not necessarily going to be the political 443 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:27,679 Speaker 1: lever that we might think it could be, or that 444 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:29,639 Speaker 1: one might think it could be. I still think that 445 00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:33,640 Speaker 1: itself is fascinating. So really appreciate you coming in and 446 00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:34,640 Speaker 1: talking through all of this. 447 00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:36,359 Speaker 4: Thank you for joining us. 448 00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:46,480 Speaker 3: Today, Thanks for having me look forward to the next one. 449 00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,160 Speaker 5: Today's episode of Switched On was produced by cam Gray 450 00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 5: with production assistants from Kamala Shelling. Bloomberg. Ne EF is 451 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,080 Speaker 5: a service provided by Bloomberg Finance LP And its affiliates. 452 00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:00,880 Speaker 5: This recording does not constitute, nor should it be construed, 453 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:04,800 Speaker 5: as investment advice, investment recommendations, or a recommendation as to 454 00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,679 Speaker 5: an investment or other strategy. Bloomberg ANNIAF should not be 455 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:11,520 Speaker 5: considered as information sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. 456 00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 5: Neither Bloomberg Finance LP Nor any of its affiliates makes 457 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:18,359 Speaker 5: any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness 458 00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:21,359 Speaker 5: of the information contained in this recording, and any liability 459 00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,080 Speaker 5: as a result of this recording is expressly disclaimed.