WEBVTT - Miller Tabak's Maley Cautions on Gold as Silver Drops (Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>This is a Bloomberg Business Flash from Bloomberg World Handquarters.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Charlie Pellett. We have got thirteen minutes to go

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<v Speaker 1>ahead of the close SMP five hundred index trading close

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<v Speaker 1>to our record. Nes DAK is at a record down.

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<v Speaker 1>Jones Industrial Average also trading close to a record. Right now,

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<v Speaker 1>we have got the SMP five hundred index advancing four

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<v Speaker 1>points to seven, up two tenths of one percent down.

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<v Speaker 1>Industrials hired by twenty three points up one tenth of

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<v Speaker 1>one percent. Has stack up three tenths of one percent

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<v Speaker 1>at fifty two sixty one Gold down a dollar and

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<v Speaker 1>a half now thirteen thirty seven ounce down one tenth

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<v Speaker 1>of one percent. Crude oil West Texas Intermediate at one

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<v Speaker 1>point three percent of sixty cents of arrol oh one

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<v Speaker 1>right now on West Texas Intermediate Crude. I'm Charlie Pellett,

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<v Speaker 1>And that's a Bloomberg Business Flash. You're listening to taking

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<v Speaker 1>stock with Bim Box and Kathleen Hayes on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>What does the FED think of increasing stock prices. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>here to tell us more is Matt Mayley. He is

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<v Speaker 1>managing director and equity strategist at Miller, tay Back and Company.

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<v Speaker 1>Matt Mayley, welcome to taking Stock. Great to be here.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you for for having so tell us about your On

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<v Speaker 1>the one hand, and on the other hand, the Federal

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<v Speaker 1>Reserve is concerned that markets are too complacent, and yet

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<v Speaker 1>they don't necessarily want people to go out and spend

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<v Speaker 1>all their money on stocks. Is that correct? Well, the

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<v Speaker 1>one thing that we I do think that that is

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<v Speaker 1>correct to a degree. I mean everybody talks about how

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<v Speaker 1>the fan and rightfully so that the Fed doesn't what

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<v Speaker 1>the stock market to uh get hit hard. I mean

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<v Speaker 1>it is. It is important part of the of the

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<v Speaker 1>economy nowadays. Off the stock markets at hard, it's going

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<v Speaker 1>to have an impact on the economy. And you've seen

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<v Speaker 1>it when it has been hit fairly hard, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>and oh down over temper Center more there's a day

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<v Speaker 1>another central manks have stepped in and provided the kind

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<v Speaker 1>of liquidity that would buoy the markets. However, I mean

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<v Speaker 1>you can't not that, you know, they don't necessarily want

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<v Speaker 1>the markets to to go to the moon on a

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<v Speaker 1>straight shot, just like we saw what happened in late

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen nineties. Because obviously that that creates a bubble that

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<v Speaker 1>they can't control if it does roll over. So I

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<v Speaker 1>kind of think now it's like they want more money

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<v Speaker 1>going into the economy rather than the stock market. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's kind of why I think that you're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>hear a little bit more hawkish tone out of a

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<v Speaker 1>chair fed chair yelling this week. Well, one area of

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<v Speaker 1>the stock market that has seemingly gone to the moon

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<v Speaker 1>is the technology sector. I mean, if you take a

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<v Speaker 1>look at x l K, which is the Spider Technology

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<v Speaker 1>Select et F, I think it's up more than ten

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<v Speaker 1>and a half percent since the beginning of the year. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>it's had a great move. And you know, it's funny.

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<v Speaker 1>On the one hand, that's you talked about one hand.

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<v Speaker 1>On the other hand, on the one hand, that's very

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<v Speaker 1>positive because it shows that we're in a little better

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<v Speaker 1>leadership out of this UH market instead of some of

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<v Speaker 1>the defensive names like utilities and the consumer staples. But

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<v Speaker 1>on the other hand, it has gone up quite a bit,

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<v Speaker 1>and and a lot of that outperformance we've seen has

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<v Speaker 1>been in the last really since the Brexit vote, and

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<v Speaker 1>you said that the XLK it is now ten percent

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<v Speaker 1>above it's uh tun a day moving average, and also

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<v Speaker 1>a subset of the technology set of the Semiconductor index,

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<v Speaker 1>the socks that's above it's moving average, and you go

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<v Speaker 1>back the last ten years or so those in both

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<v Speaker 1>cases is of basically where the market or those groups

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<v Speaker 1>have topped out. So we could be due for a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit of a pullback. Having said that, um, the

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<v Speaker 1>group has had a nice run on on the chart,

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<v Speaker 1>it's broken out, so not necessarily thing. It's a group

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<v Speaker 1>we should where you should take profits, and so much

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<v Speaker 1>is that the buyers might want to step back a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit. And if we do get the usual September

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<v Speaker 1>October scare, that's when you want to come back in

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<v Speaker 1>and maybe buy on weakness because it is getting extended

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<v Speaker 1>on a technical basis. Well, it is okay to sell

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<v Speaker 1>every now and again. I mean, after all, as they

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<v Speaker 1>you don't go pro taking a profit. And looking at

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<v Speaker 1>your description of the x l K, as you said

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<v Speaker 1>just after that Brexit vote, that particular exchange traded fund

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<v Speaker 1>the technology XLK it's up nearly fourteen percent from those

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<v Speaker 1>Brexit loaves, do you believe that the Federal Reserve, and

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<v Speaker 1>particularly the head of the New York Federal Reserve, Bill Dudley,

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<v Speaker 1>do you think that his comments are meant to maybe

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<v Speaker 1>make people a little bit more worried about what the

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<v Speaker 1>Federal Reserve will do or is there's something deeper, a

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<v Speaker 1>deeper meaning to his on the one hand, and on

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<v Speaker 1>the other hand comments well, you know again, when you

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<v Speaker 1>use that when when when somebody is influential, as as

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<v Speaker 1>a New York Federal Federals are president makes it says

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<v Speaker 1>that the comments, I'm sorry that the markets are getting

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the investors are getting way too complacent. I

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<v Speaker 1>think that's a substantial statement, And of course it was

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<v Speaker 1>followed right up by the uh, you know, the next

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<v Speaker 1>most important person in the sad the vice chair Fisher,

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<v Speaker 1>kind of saying the same thing. Uh. So, I think

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<v Speaker 1>that the they are trying to warn people that we

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<v Speaker 1>don't want things get to get out of control. We

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<v Speaker 1>don't want the market because they keep talking about normalizing rates,

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<v Speaker 1>whether they raise them now or in December or even later,

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<v Speaker 1>they're acknowledging that rates are too low given the underlying strength.

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<v Speaker 1>Now they don't want, you know, so, so they're they're

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<v Speaker 1>they're too low for the where the market isn't where

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<v Speaker 1>the economy is. Uh. They don't want those things to

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<v Speaker 1>get further ahead of them before things get out of control,

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<v Speaker 1>because again that creates bubbles, and whatever bubbles unwind, we

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<v Speaker 1>know what happens then and they can't control them. So

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<v Speaker 1>I definitely think that they're sending a warning signal. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>There is some people who think that you know, we

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<v Speaker 1>can they'll still keep uh, you know, a net safety

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<v Speaker 1>that under the market with QUI programs. But they just

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<v Speaker 1>don't think that the interest rate things has worked in

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<v Speaker 1>the last a few years, and it's something they want

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<v Speaker 1>to rectify. You use the word bubble, and I want

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<v Speaker 1>you to see if you can tell me about bubbles

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<v Speaker 1>imprecious metals like silver. If you look at silver up

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<v Speaker 1>thirty six percent since January, that is you know, and

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<v Speaker 1>and and the thing is that it's it's it's rolled

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<v Speaker 1>over just in the last couple of days, which has

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<v Speaker 1>definitely know, it has been had a real nice ninety

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<v Speaker 1>seven cents per ounce right now right and it got

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<v Speaker 1>up to twenty and it's it was in that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it had that big rally. Then it was sideways for

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<v Speaker 1>two months and it has now broken below that sideways trend.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a big concern for me, especially because if you

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<v Speaker 1>look at the c OT, this commitment of traders data

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<v Speaker 1>had showed that the long positions in oil had gotten

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<v Speaker 1>to huge records. In fact, they were much higher than

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<v Speaker 1>they were back in two thousand eleven when oil was

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<v Speaker 1>at almost fifty dollars. So your less than half the level,

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<v Speaker 1>and yet everybody's on one side of the boat. So

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<v Speaker 1>this thing starts to roll over. Uh, you have a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of people on wine some of those positions. So

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<v Speaker 1>it's still a little early. We've only broken it for

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of days. But unless it anounces that quickly,

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<v Speaker 1>that's going to be a big problem. And when silver,

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<v Speaker 1>you silver is usually at turning points anyway, is usually

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<v Speaker 1>a line indicator for gold. You know, we've heard a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of bullish comments about gold lately, especially for some

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<v Speaker 1>very smart and successful people billionaires and things. But they're

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<v Speaker 1>long term thinkers. But that doesn't mean we can't have

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<v Speaker 1>a significant sell off over in the near term. Uh

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<v Speaker 1>if if silver continues to break down, So that's something

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<v Speaker 1>to watch very very closely. Too many people on one

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<v Speaker 1>side of the boat in the precious medals, especially silver

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<v Speaker 1>right now, Well, gold, as you said, now up about

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<v Speaker 1>two tents of a percent higher by nearly three dollars,

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<v Speaker 1>announced thirteen hundred forty dollars for an ounce of a gold.

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<v Speaker 1>Gold started the year at around uh well, one thousand

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<v Speaker 1>sixty two announced. Now we're at thirteen hundred forty announce.

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<v Speaker 1>You mentioned energy. Tell us about your thoughts investing in

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<v Speaker 1>the energy complex. Crude oil today up one and a

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<v Speaker 1>quarter percent, forty seven dollars for a barrel of crude oil,

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<v Speaker 1>and also natural gas higher by nearly three percent today

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<v Speaker 1>at two dollars seventy five cents per million BTU. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's funny because the oil thing, I've had a

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<v Speaker 1>couple of decent calls recently. When it got up to fifty,

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<v Speaker 1>I was getting overloved and over owned. Uh that was

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<v Speaker 1>worked off. When to pull back to the you know,

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<v Speaker 1>forty dollar range, actually dip alow that for a second,

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<v Speaker 1>and I kind of said it was oversold or now

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<v Speaker 1>we're kind of a no man's land. We bounced back

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit. I'm not a big believer in what's

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<v Speaker 1>going on right now. I mean, we have a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of people who are not at their desks at the

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<v Speaker 1>end of the summer, a lot of people still on vacation.

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<v Speaker 1>So uh, some of these rumors that are going around

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<v Speaker 1>that have you know, it was one of the reasons today,

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<v Speaker 1>of course, is more rumors about Iraq uh and and

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<v Speaker 1>supplying the man from them and others been increasing their

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<v Speaker 1>output and no real agreement on capping the output from

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<v Speaker 1>OPEC nations. Right, So we got the thing is we

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<v Speaker 1>get we keep getting these rumors or chatter or whatever

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<v Speaker 1>out of out of OPEC, mostly coming from OPEC, and

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<v Speaker 1>they all seem to be empty. They don't seem to

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<v Speaker 1>come to fruition. So I'm a little nervous up here.

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<v Speaker 1>Then when you're pushing them towards fifty dollars, I know,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, Goldman Sachs was talking it was today or yesterday,

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<v Speaker 1>late yesterday about looking for the fifty dollar range uh

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<v Speaker 1>as being where it was going to settle in for

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<v Speaker 1>the time I'm being I tend to agree with that. However,

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<v Speaker 1>the one thing, of course, on the technical basis is

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<v Speaker 1>what's going to happen. Uh, that kind of forty fifty

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<v Speaker 1>dollar band is going to be key because you know,

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<v Speaker 1>let's face a commodities traders are the ones who invented

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<v Speaker 1>technical analysis, and those are key support and re listen stuff.

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<v Speaker 1>I know, what's a wide range, but if you break

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<v Speaker 1>below forty, that's going to cause some people to bail.

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<v Speaker 1>A break above fifty that's going to attract a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of momentum money. So right now we're kind of in

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<v Speaker 1>the middle of it. But at some point we break

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<v Speaker 1>above above ba below that range, but it's going to

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<v Speaker 1>be something that's gonna really affect what the trading I've

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<v Speaker 1>started with the commodity traders do. When you speak of momentum,

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<v Speaker 1>I keep thinking of stocks such as Facebook. The shares

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<v Speaker 1>are up nearly twenty so far this year, you're trading

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<v Speaker 1>in a hundred and twenty four dollars. Is that the

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<v Speaker 1>kind of company that you want people to own or

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<v Speaker 1>is that a play that is over? Now you're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>look for value? Well, I you know, I am a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit more cautious on the market these levels of

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<v Speaker 1>number one, because I do think that the Fed let's

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<v Speaker 1>looking to raise rates, which well will I think full

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<v Speaker 1>the market down because I think that will happen in

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<v Speaker 1>September or in December. I think the chances are higher,

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<v Speaker 1>are higher. I think it's going to happen in December.

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<v Speaker 1>But I do think the chances of a December rate

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<v Speaker 1>hip are more than people expecting. I'm in the more

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<v Speaker 1>of the chance that have been happening, or a lot

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<v Speaker 1>more people are in sit fund futures. Of course, so

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<v Speaker 1>much below that, but I just think that we'll know

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<v Speaker 1>more on Friday, that's for sure. When when when FED

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<v Speaker 1>chairs Yelling speaks. You know, if everybody talks about who's

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<v Speaker 1>the most important voice, well, I think we all we

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<v Speaker 1>can all agree about who's second or third or fifth

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<v Speaker 1>and most important. We all know whos number one, and

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<v Speaker 1>that's uh so we'll get that feeling on on on money,

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<v Speaker 1>and those set fund futures may see a big change

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<v Speaker 1>on Friday. Thanks very much, Matt Mayleie. He's a managing

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<v Speaker 1>director and equity strategist for Miller, tay Back and Company.

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<v Speaker 1>He's talking about FED chair Janet Yelling. She will be

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<v Speaker 1>speaking at the Kansas City Federal Reserves Annual Symposium in

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<v Speaker 1>Jackson Hall, Wyoming, this Friday, ten am, Wall Street Time

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<v Speaker 1>right here on Bloomberg. Also, we've got reports from my

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<v Speaker 1>co host Kathleen Hayes live from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and

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<v Speaker 1>the all important speech by Janet Yellin, Chair of the

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<v Speaker 1>Federal Reserve. We take you through to the close on

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<v Speaker 1>Wall Street next