WEBVTT - A Stunning Election Result in India as Modi and BJP Fall Short

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>It's been a nail biter of an election in India.

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<v Speaker 2>Prime Minister Narendra Modi vownd to continue as a country's

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<v Speaker 2>top leader even after his party lost its majority. Now

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<v Speaker 2>Mody will have to rely on allies to form a government.

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<v Speaker 3>Para Mataki.

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<v Speaker 2>Diegana. That's Modi addressing supporters outside the headquarters of Badatia

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<v Speaker 2>Junta Party Tuesday night. But this is far from the

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<v Speaker 2>big win that Mody had promised and leaves India's politics

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<v Speaker 2>in uncharted waters. Welcome to the Big Take Asia from

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg News. I'm wanh today on the show what India's

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<v Speaker 2>surprising election results mean for the country and the rest

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<v Speaker 2>of the world. Hi, Sudi, it's a big day for India.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks for being here with us.

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<v Speaker 4>Thank you, thank you, indeed, very very big day.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Sudi run Jansen has covered India for nearly three decades.

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<v Speaker 2>Tell me about what it's been like on the streets

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<v Speaker 2>of Delhi today.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I was there for the you know, the opposition

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<v Speaker 3>headquarters of the Congress party headquarters.

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<v Speaker 4>Celebrations have already started there and rightly.

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<v Speaker 3>So, because of Congress from being reduced to forty odd

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<v Speaker 3>seats in the last election, really making a comeback, so

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of celebration in the Congress headquarters. It's kind

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<v Speaker 3>of rejuvenation of the Congress, so to say. Similarly, BJP

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<v Speaker 3>emerging as a single largest party, which was expected, but

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<v Speaker 3>the win not as big as the BJP has claimed.

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<v Speaker 4>And therefore celebrations at the BJP headquarters.

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<v Speaker 3>Also, this election in a way is a very very

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<v Speaker 3>big surprise, you know, for the ruling party from Prime

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<v Speaker 3>minister more than you, and more so if one was

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<v Speaker 3>going only by the exit poll results that came out

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<v Speaker 3>a few days ago.

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<v Speaker 2>So Sudi, let's get inside the numbers a little bit.

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<v Speaker 2>Prime Minister Mody and the BJP expected a much bigger win, right.

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<v Speaker 2>Mody had even come out with a very specific goal

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<v Speaker 2>for the number of seats that he said the BJP

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<v Speaker 2>would win. How close did they get to that goalpost?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I mean then nowhere near the goalpost. If you

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<v Speaker 3>look at the Prime minister's target, the target was four

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<v Speaker 3>hundred seats for the National Democratic Alliance that he leads

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<v Speaker 3>at near three hundred and seventy seats for the party itself.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's quite upset for Prime Minister Modi and for

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<v Speaker 3>the NDA alliance and quite and therefore quite a big

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<v Speaker 3>win in a way for the opposition alliance, which by

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<v Speaker 3>the way, was very very confident of doing well, although

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<v Speaker 3>very few people believed them.

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<v Speaker 4>The Opposition has done extremely well.

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<v Speaker 2>Really no matter how you look at it. It's disappointment

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<v Speaker 2>for Moody and for the BJP.

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<v Speaker 4>The BJP wasn't kind of quite prepared for this situation.

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<v Speaker 3>It was kind of expecting a handsome and overwhelming win.

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<v Speaker 4>So there could be two possibility.

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<v Speaker 3>The BJP may decide that, you know, they may they

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<v Speaker 3>may want a change in the leadership, which would then

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<v Speaker 3>open up, you know, entire new avenue with other leaders

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<v Speaker 3>being considered.

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<v Speaker 4>That is one possibility.

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<v Speaker 3>The other possibility, of course, is that they go with

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<v Speaker 3>the Prime minister. They go with Prime Minister Modi with

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<v Speaker 3>the allies that they have right now.

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<v Speaker 4>But then going forward.

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<v Speaker 3>Prime Minister Modi will be a much more weakened prime

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<v Speaker 3>minist We will not see the assertiveness that we have

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<v Speaker 3>seen in the past. Also, with the Opposition becoming stronger,

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<v Speaker 3>with having you know, having around two hundred lawmakers in

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<v Speaker 3>the Parliament, they will be playing a much more aggressive role.

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<v Speaker 3>It won't be like what we saw in between twenty

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<v Speaker 3>eight nineteen and twenty twenty four, where the BJP could

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<v Speaker 3>just you know, get any of the bills in the

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<v Speaker 3>Parliament clear just because they had the numbers and it

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<v Speaker 3>was a broof majority that they had.

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<v Speaker 2>Now let's also put some perspective on this, right, this

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<v Speaker 2>is still a historic win for Mody and the BJP.

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<v Speaker 2>Moody is only the second politician to win three consecutive terms.

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<v Speaker 2>Do these results you think take away some of his swagger?

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<v Speaker 3>It very definitely takes a machine away from Moody because

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<v Speaker 3>the Bartjanta Party, you know, never ever thought about a situation.

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<v Speaker 4>Where they would need allies to form a government and

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<v Speaker 4>run a.

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<v Speaker 2>Government after the break. What India's election results mean for

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<v Speaker 2>the world. India's election results are a stunning blow for

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<v Speaker 2>Prime Minister or in their Modi. It was expected that

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<v Speaker 2>Mody's BJP party would easily win a third term, putting

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<v Speaker 2>him in office for another five years. We discussed the

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<v Speaker 2>surprising results with Milan Vishnef, Senior Fellow and Director of

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<v Speaker 2>the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International

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<v Speaker 2>Peace Millan earlier this week. We had exit polls suggesting

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<v Speaker 2>that Prime Minister Mody and the BJP were headed to

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<v Speaker 2>an easy victory. Today things look so different. What's been

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<v Speaker 2>your reaction as you've watched the results come in.

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<v Speaker 1>Stunning, I think is the word that I and many

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<v Speaker 1>other friends have been using. These results are stunning, not

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<v Speaker 1>only because of the exit polls that we saw in

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<v Speaker 1>the past couple days, but because of the surveys that

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<v Speaker 1>were done even before campaigning started, and just the general

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<v Speaker 1>narrative that this was really the BJP's election to lose.

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<v Speaker 1>And now we're in any situation where, yes, Modi's coalition

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<v Speaker 1>has a majority, it can form the government. But his party,

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<v Speaker 1>the BJP, which has enjoyed its own single party majority

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<v Speaker 1>in Parliament for two consecutive elections, was not able to

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<v Speaker 1>meet that target, right, So it's going to be reliant

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<v Speaker 1>on the help and assistance of some of its partners.

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<v Speaker 1>So people have described this as a political earthquake, as

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<v Speaker 1>an awakening. It's hard to find the superlatives to do justice.

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<v Speaker 1>It really was just a stunning turn of events.

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<v Speaker 2>Stunning is definitely the right word to describe it, and

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<v Speaker 2>certainly for Mody and the bj party, it's obviously a disappointment.

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<v Speaker 2>No matter how you look at it, what do these

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<v Speaker 2>results tell us about how voters feel about Modi and

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<v Speaker 2>the BJP at this point.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, by and large, I would submit that Nearanther Modi

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<v Speaker 1>is still personally popular. You know, it's nothing to sneeze

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<v Speaker 1>at to win three consecutive elections, right, That's not something

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<v Speaker 1>that a party has done under the same leader since

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<v Speaker 1>Naeru after independence. Okay, so this is still an achievement,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's certainly a personal setback because he had put

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<v Speaker 1>his own political credibility on the line and has come

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<v Speaker 1>up short, really for the first time. Despite the kind

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<v Speaker 1>of glossy headline numbers, the Indian economy has not been

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<v Speaker 1>firing on all cylinders. There has been some degree of

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<v Speaker 1>disenchantment with individual BJP leaders that Nearanthomody has empowered at

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<v Speaker 1>the state and local levels. There is a feeling that

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<v Speaker 1>perhaps there was a certain amount of hubris or arrogance

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<v Speaker 1>that had accumulated over the past ten years, which led

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<v Speaker 1>this government to believe they could sort of do whatever

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<v Speaker 1>they wanted without any checks and balances.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, And of course, the context in a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>elections is that the incumbent and the ruling party gets

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<v Speaker 2>re elected if people are feeling good about the economy

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<v Speaker 2>and their futures, right, and certainly I mean with this election,

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<v Speaker 2>we know that unemployment, for example, has been a big issue,

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<v Speaker 2>particularly among younger people in the country. Was that something

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<v Speaker 2>that really drove voting at the polls and the results

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<v Speaker 2>that we're seeing perhaps.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, we're going to have to wait for more

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<v Speaker 1>systematic survey data to validate that, but I think anecdotally,

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<v Speaker 1>if you look at a lot of the ground reporting

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<v Speaker 1>in places where the BJP has suffered losses and take

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<v Speaker 1>out through Fordesh for example, you know a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>journalists who were traveling, you know, off the beaten path

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<v Speaker 1>did since this feeling of you know, we've supported you

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<v Speaker 1>for ten years, you being mothy, but the fruits of

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<v Speaker 1>growth have not yet completely reached us. We appreciate that

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<v Speaker 1>this government and this Prime Minister have invested in an

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<v Speaker 1>expansion of the welfare net, so we now have greater

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<v Speaker 1>access to things like bank accounts, to gas connections, to

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<v Speaker 1>modern flush toilets, but that does not equal livelihoods. It

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't equal good paying jobs.

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<v Speaker 4>Right.

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<v Speaker 1>It doesn't mean that if I invest in my son

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<v Speaker 1>or daughter's education they're going to be able to find

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<v Speaker 1>gainful employment when they go out and join the labor force, right,

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<v Speaker 1>So I think that that disenchantment has resulted in some

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<v Speaker 1>of these seat tallies coming down for the BJP, which

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<v Speaker 1>is why they end up in this situation of really

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<v Speaker 1>needing friends to form this new government.

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<v Speaker 2>And some of those issues were things that the BJP's

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<v Speaker 2>opposition party talked about, I mean, running against Mody and

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<v Speaker 2>the BGP this election cycle. Was this alliance of opposition

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<v Speaker 2>groups in the country. How did they campaign against Mody

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<v Speaker 2>and the BJP. What was their argument for why voters

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<v Speaker 2>should choose them.

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<v Speaker 1>The number one issue the India Alliance brought up was inequality,

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<v Speaker 1>right that we fundamentally have a two speed society and

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<v Speaker 1>system where the current politically economy of India has worked

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<v Speaker 1>for the haves and it hasn't worked at all for

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<v Speaker 1>the have knots. So the rich have gotten richer and

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<v Speaker 1>the poort have either stagnated or suffered or decline right

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of their living standards. And they tied this

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<v Speaker 1>issue cleverly in hindsight, to the issue of caste, which

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<v Speaker 1>is an emotionally charged issue. It's a you know, connected

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<v Speaker 1>to a set of a pattern of deep seated, kind

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<v Speaker 1>of rigid inequalities going back, you know, centuries in India

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<v Speaker 1>to say that, you know, people who have been historically

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<v Speaker 1>disadvantaged have not benefited from economic growth in the same

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<v Speaker 1>way that the privileged casts have. I think that they

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<v Speaker 1>were able to get some resonance on the ground with

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<v Speaker 1>people who felt like, fundamentally this system is unfair and

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<v Speaker 1>I'm at the receiving end.

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<v Speaker 2>The other thing that defines Mody and the BJP has

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<v Speaker 2>really been their Hindu first nationalist agenda, is that are

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<v Speaker 2>we seeing now that maybe that's not enough to mobilize

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<v Speaker 2>new voters, that that's resonating the way that they thought

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<v Speaker 2>it would.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I think that's right. I don't think though, that

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<v Speaker 1>this vote is somehow a massive rebuke of that politics, right.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that the ideological kind of midpoint, right, if

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<v Speaker 1>you think about the median voter has probably moved in

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<v Speaker 1>a more Hindu first way over the past ten years.

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<v Speaker 1>So I don't know that there's outrage over pro Hindu

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<v Speaker 1>policies as such. It's just that pro Hindu policies, at

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<v Speaker 1>the end of the day, don't put food on the table, right,

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<v Speaker 1>And It's notable that one of the biggest promises that

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<v Speaker 1>this party made going into these elections was the guarantee

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<v Speaker 1>delivery of free rations for eight hundred million Indians. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>if the economy is firing on all cylinders, why would

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<v Speaker 1>you need to make that promise? Right, So that shows

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<v Speaker 1>that at the end of the day, you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>political laws of gravity can only be defied for so long.

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<v Speaker 1>Right there, there is something to that. It's the economy

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<v Speaker 1>stupid tagline that we often bring about in elections, right,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not totally irrelevant.

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<v Speaker 2>Looking ahead, what does mody do? Now? What do you

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<v Speaker 2>think comes next, especially in the next one hundred days.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, let's not even get to the first hundred days.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's get to the next you know, one hundred hours,

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<v Speaker 1>because they have to solidify their coalition, right, because you

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<v Speaker 1>can bet that the Opposition Alliance is making every phone

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<v Speaker 1>call they can to the BJP's friends saying, look, if

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<v Speaker 1>you leave them and join us, we'll give you a

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<v Speaker 1>really sweet deal, right, dangling cabinet post and perhaps even

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<v Speaker 1>prime ministerships. And so that's not a done deal yet, right,

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<v Speaker 1>assuming though, that they're able to negotiate that, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I expect they are going to have to come together

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<v Speaker 1>with their allies and put forward some kind of common

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<v Speaker 1>minimum program, right, which is a common understanding of These

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<v Speaker 1>are going to be our governing priorities. These are the

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<v Speaker 1>highlights of our legislative agenda. You know, this is not

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<v Speaker 1>something they have to do before because they could decide

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<v Speaker 1>on their own. They didn't have to negotiate with anyone.

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<v Speaker 1>Theyd'dt have to consult with anyone.

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<v Speaker 2>Modi of course at this point, you know, still reeling,

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<v Speaker 2>i'm sure from from these election results. What does he

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<v Speaker 2>need to do? You know, assuming that he can put

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<v Speaker 2>together coalition government, what does he really need to focus

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<v Speaker 2>on in the immediate.

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<v Speaker 1>I think you know their top number one, number two,

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<v Speaker 1>number three objectives really has to be jobs. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>this is a country that is what There's a lot

0:13:28.600 --> 0:13:33.040
<v Speaker 1>of dynamism, there's a lot of aspiration. There are geopolitical

0:13:33.120 --> 0:13:37.360
<v Speaker 1>wins that are moving in India's favor if it could

0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:40.720
<v Speaker 1>take advantage of this unique window of opportunity right, and

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<v Speaker 1>so that means getting your policies right such that you

0:13:44.280 --> 0:13:48.679
<v Speaker 1>can actually create a robust domestic manufacturing sector right, and

0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:51.840
<v Speaker 1>that involves getting your trade policy right, getting your tariff

0:13:51.840 --> 0:13:54.240
<v Speaker 1>policy right, getting your factor market policy right, getting all

0:13:54.320 --> 0:13:56.679
<v Speaker 1>of these things which have been a little bit muddled,

0:13:56.880 --> 0:13:58.480
<v Speaker 1>frankly over the past ten years.

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<v Speaker 4>Right.

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<v Speaker 1>And so I think if I we're advising this government,

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<v Speaker 1>I would say, you know, that is rarely where you

0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:06.400
<v Speaker 1>need to focus your attention. And if you can get

0:14:06.800 --> 0:14:11.000
<v Speaker 1>that eight to nine percent growth sustained over a period

0:14:11.000 --> 0:14:14.040
<v Speaker 1>of time, all of these other questions you have about

0:14:14.280 --> 0:14:17.480
<v Speaker 1>social policy and welfare policy, and foreign policy and so

0:14:17.559 --> 0:14:19.400
<v Speaker 1>on and so forth, they will fall into place.

0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:24.000
<v Speaker 2>You mentioned foreign policy. What are the global implications of

0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:25.200
<v Speaker 2>these election results?

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<v Speaker 1>You think, well, I think you know, given geopolitical factors

0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:33.640
<v Speaker 1>and what I mean specifically, there are you know, growing

0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:37.960
<v Speaker 1>concerns about China's role in the world, the ongoing kind

0:14:38.040 --> 0:14:42.840
<v Speaker 1>of reemergence of a global Russia, the decline of kind

0:14:42.880 --> 0:14:47.240
<v Speaker 1>of American hegemony. I think India, no matter the shape

0:14:47.320 --> 0:14:49.240
<v Speaker 1>or form of its government, still has a lot of

0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:51.600
<v Speaker 1>room to maneuver, right, and so it is going to

0:14:51.680 --> 0:14:55.960
<v Speaker 1>continue to be a valued and sought after partner by

0:14:56.000 --> 0:14:59.200
<v Speaker 1>a multiplicity of countries east and West, and that's not

0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:01.280
<v Speaker 1>going to change. But I do think it at the

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<v Speaker 1>same time comes probably as a bit of a breadth

0:15:05.400 --> 0:15:07.840
<v Speaker 1>of fresh air for a lot of foreign leaders who

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<v Speaker 1>were very concerned about democratic backsliding, concerned about things like,

0:15:12.560 --> 0:15:16.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, India's alleged involvement in the target assassination of

0:15:16.400 --> 0:15:20.960
<v Speaker 1>democratic citizens on democratic soil abroad, and so I think

0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:24.840
<v Speaker 1>this could act as a check on some of those excesses,

0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:28.200
<v Speaker 1>and so I don't think these results will be entirely

0:15:29.000 --> 0:15:31.960
<v Speaker 1>unwelcome in the corridors of power outside of India.

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<v Speaker 2>By the way, if you want to learn more about

0:15:34.480 --> 0:15:37.640
<v Speaker 2>India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and how he became so

0:15:37.800 --> 0:15:41.160
<v Speaker 2>popular and polarizing, we have a two part series out.

0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:43.960
<v Speaker 2>You can find The Rise of Moti on the Big

0:15:44.000 --> 0:15:48.520
<v Speaker 2>Take Asia podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks

0:15:48.520 --> 0:15:51.720
<v Speaker 2>for listening to The Big Take Asia podcast from Bloomberg News.

0:15:52.080 --> 0:15:56.360
<v Speaker 2>I'm wanh. This episode was produced by Young Young Naomi,

0:15:57.080 --> 0:16:00.760
<v Speaker 2>Jessica Beck and Adriana Tapia, who was mixed by Blake

0:16:00.800 --> 0:16:04.560
<v Speaker 2>Maples and fact checked by Adriana. It was also edited

0:16:04.600 --> 0:16:08.240
<v Speaker 2>by Caitlin Kenny and Daniel ten Kate, Naomi Shaven and

0:16:08.320 --> 0:16:12.160
<v Speaker 2>Kim Gettelson are our senior producers. Elizabeth Ponso is our

0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:15.680
<v Speaker 2>senior editor. And Nicole beemster Bower is our executive producer.

0:16:16.280 --> 0:16:19.880
<v Speaker 2>Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Please follow and

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